“PROJECT

MANAGEMENT” Ankit Kumar

(A35404917002)
Software Engineering-II
Presented to: Dr. Biswarup Samanta
Types Of Estimation Techniques :

Empirical Heuristic
Estimation Estimation
Analytical
Estimation
Technique Technique Technique
............... ….... ....

page 3
Empirical
Estimation
Technique

Empirical estimation techniques are based on making an educated guess of the project parameters. While using
othis
Empirical
technique,estimation techniques
prior experience are based on
with development of making an educated
similar products guess
is helpful. of theempirical estimation
Although
project parameters.
techniques are based on common sense, different activities involved in estimation have been formalized over
otheWhile
years.using this technique,
Two popular empirical prior experience
estimation withare:
techniques development of similar
Expert judgment products
technique and Delphi cost
estimation.
is helpful.
o Although empirical estimation techniques are based on common sense, different
activities involved in estimation have been formalized to certain extent.

o Two popular empirical estimation techniques are:

 Expert judgment technique
 Delphi cost estimation

page 4
Expert Judgement
Technique
o Expert judgment is one of the most widely used estimation techniques. In this technique, an
expert makes an educated guess of the problem size after analyzing the problem
thoroughly. Usually, the expert estimates the cost of the different components (i.e. modules
or subsystems) of the system and then combines them to arrive at the overall estimate.
o However, this technique is subject to human errors and individual bias. Also, it is possible
that the expert may overlook some factors inadvertently. Further, an expert making an
estimate may not have experience and knowledge of all aspects of a project.(For example,
he may be conversant with the database and user interface parts but may not be very
knowledgeable about the computer communication part).
o A more refined form of expert judgment is the estimation made by group of experts.
o Estimation by a group of experts minimizes factors such as individual oversight, lack of
familiarity with a particular aspect of a project, personal bias.
o However, the estimate made by a group of experts may still exhibit bias on issues where the
entire group of experts may be biased due to reasons such as political considerations. Also,
the decision made by the group may be dominated by overly assertive members.

page 5
Delphi Cost
Estimation
o Delphi cost estimation approach tries to overcome some of the shortcomings of the expert
judgment approach. Delphi estimation is carried out by a team comprising of a group of experts
and a coordinator.
o In this approach, the coordinator provides each estimator with a copy of the software
requirements specification (SRS) document and a form for recording his cost estimate.
o Estimators complete their individual estimates anonymously and submit to the coordinator. In
their estimates, the estimators mention any unusual characteristic of the product which has
influenced his estimation.
o The coordinator prepares and distributes the summary of the responses of all the estimators, and
includes any unusual rationale noted by any of the estimators. Based on this summary, the
estimators re-estimate. This process is iterated for several rounds
o The idea behind this is that if any discussion is allowed among the estimators, then many
estimators may easily get influenced by the rationale of an estimator who may be more
experienced or senior.
o After the completion of several iterations of estimations, the coordinator takes the responsibility
of compiling the results and preparing the final estimate.
page 6
Heuristic
Estimation
Technique

o Heuristic techniques assume that the relationships among the different project parameters can be
modeled using suitable mathematical expressions.
o Once the basic (independent) parameters are known, the other (dependent) parameters can be
easily determined by substituting the value of the basic parameters in the mathematical expression.
Different heuristic estimation models can be divided into the following two classes: single variable
model and the multi variable model.
o Single variable estimation models provide a means to estimate the desired characteristics of a
problem, using some previously estimated basic (independent) characteristic of the software
product such as its size.
o Multivariable estimation models are expected to give more accurate estimates compared to the single variable
models, since a project parameter is typically influenced by several independent parameters. The independent
parameters influence the dependent parameter to different extents.
o Values of these constants are usually determined from historical data

page 7
COCOMO
COnstructive COst estimation MOdel
 COCOMO was first published in 1981 Barry W. Bohem’s Book Software Engineering Economics.

 The purpose of this Model is to help the end user to make Estimate of the
Effort required to Build the software, staff and Cost estimation.

 Types of COCOMO:
o Basic Model
o Intermediate Model
o Detailed Model

Cost Size

Time

Fig: Need of COCOMO

page 8
BASIC COCOMO Model:

 It estimates the software in a rough and quick manner

 Mostly useful for small-medium sized software

 Three modes of development:

o Organic
o Semi Detached
o Embedded

page 9
 Basic Model Equations:

Effort = a(KLOC)b Person-month

Development Time = c(Effort)d Months

𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠
Average Staff Size = Persons
𝐷𝑒𝑣.𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒

page 10
Question:
Suppose a project was estimated to be 400 KLOC . Mode a b c d
Calculate Effort and Time for each of three modes of development.
Organic 2.5 1.05 2.5 0.38
1) Organic
Semi- 3.0 2.5 2.5 0.35
detached
Effort = a(KLOC)b
Embedded 3.6 2.5 2.5 0.32
= 2.4(400)1.05 ≈ 1295 Per Month

Dev. Time = c(Effort)d

= 2.5(1295)0.38 ≈ 38 Months
2) Semi-Detached

Effort = a(KLOC)b
= 3(400)1.12 ≈ 2462 Per Month

Dev. Time = c(Effort)d

= 2.5(2462)0.35 ≈ 38.4 Months

page 11
3) Embedded

Effort = a(KLOC)b
= 3.6(400)1.2 ≈ 4772 Per Month

Dev. Time = c(Effort)d

= 2.5(4772)0.32 ≈ 38 Months

page 12
Analytical
Estimation
Technique

o Analytical estimation techniques derive the

required results starting with basic assumptions
regarding the project.
o Thus, unlike empirical and heuristic techniques,
analytical techniques do have scientific basis. It
can be used to derive some interesting results
starting with a few simple assumptions.
o it outperforms both empirical and heuristic.

page 13
THANK YOU !