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    Wilkins, A Zurn Company

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    HEM BANSAL
    Wilkins, a Zurn company, currently uses a forecasting method involving a Forecast Master and Planning Bill to estimate demand for its 25 product families. However, this method may not be optimal for Wilkins' two key products - pressure vacuum breakers (PVBs) and fire valves - as they have distinct demand patterns. The document recommends using regression analysis to forecast PVB sales based on external economic factors, and keeping the current method for fire valves as their sales are not significantly dependent on external factors. It aims to determine a statistical forecasting approach considering both quantitative and qualitative factors that is easy to use, reliable, and accounts for price promotions and new products.

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    Wilkins, A Zurn Company

    Uploaded by

    HEM BANSAL
    257 views8 pages
    Wilkins, a Zurn company, currently uses a forecasting method involving a Forecast Master and Planning Bill to estimate demand for its 25 product families. However, this method may not be optimal for Wilkins' two key products - pressure vacuum breakers (PVBs) and fire valves - as they have distinct demand patterns. The document recommends using regression analysis to forecast PVB sales based on external economic factors, and keeping the current method for fire valves as their sales are not significantly dependent on external factors. It aims to determine a statistical forecasting approach considering both quantitative and qualitative factors that is easy to use, reliable, and accounts for price promotions and new products.

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    jmng

    Original Title

    Wilkins Group6

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    Wilkins, a Zurn company, currently uses a forecasting method involving a Forecast Master and Planning Bill to estimate demand for its 25 product families. However, this method may not be optimal for Wilkins' two key products - pressure vacuum breakers (PVBs) and fire valves - as they have distinct demand patterns. The document recommends using regression analysis to forecast PVB sales based on external economic factors, and keeping the current method for fire valves as their sales are not significantly dependent on external factors. It aims to determine a statistical forecasting approach considering both quantitative and qualitative factors that is easy to use, reliable, and accounts for price promotions and new products.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    257 views8 pages

    Wilkins, A Zurn Company

    Uploaded by

    HEM BANSAL
    Wilkins, a Zurn company, currently uses a forecasting method involving a Forecast Master and Planning Bill to estimate demand for its 25 product families. However, this method may not be optimal for Wilkins' two key products - pressure vacuum breakers (PVBs) and fire valves - as they have distinct demand patterns. The document recommends using regression analysis to forecast PVB sales based on external economic factors, and keeping the current method for fire valves as their sales are not significantly dependent on external factors. It aims to determine a statistical forecasting approach considering both quantitative and qualitative factors that is easy to use, reliable, and accounts for price promotions and new products.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
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    The document discusses the forecasting methods used by Wilkins Industries for their key products Pressure Vacuum Breakers (PVB) and Fire Valves. The current method uses a Forecast Master and Planning Bill. PVB demand is affected by external factors while Fire Valves are not.

    The current method involves a Forecast Master which organizes products into families and forecasts demand for weeks and quarters. It is accompanied by a Planning Bill which contains sales history, estimates, predictions and projections.

    The two key products are PVB and Fire Valves. PVB demand fluctuates seasonally while Fire Valves have a steady demand. Hence their forecasting methods should be different.

    Wilkins,

    A Zurn Company
    SUBMITTED BY-
    GROUP- 6
    • NIDHI AGARWAL
    • NEETA KUMARI
    • NASREEN RAHAT
    • TUSHAR CHUGH
    • NEHA SHEENAM
    • SUJATA KOTHAVADE
    Background

    COMPANY CUSTOMER CONTEXT


    • Zurn industries acquired • Retail sector Determining the process
    Wilkins in 1971
    • In 1998 Zurn merged with • Private and Institutional of forecasting demand
    U.S. Industries Bath and sector
    Plumbing Products Co. and • Commercial sector
    changed its name to Jacuzzi
    Brands
    • High-quality products for
    plumbing, municipal
    waterworks, fire production
    • They have 2 key products-
    Pressure Vacuum Breakers
    and Fire Valves
    Current Forecasting Method of Wilkins

     Involves a Forecast Master and a Planning Bill.


     Organizes its products into product families and has a total of 25 of these
    product families in Forecast Master.
     The demand for each week is calculated and an estimate of the
    demand for the upcoming quarters is made.
     The Forecasting Master is accompanied by a Planning Bill that comprises
    of 5 essential elements.
    Approach

     The two products PVB and Fire Valves have distinct demand patterns and so their forecasting
    methods should be different.

    Demand Pattern for PVB Demand Pattern for Fire Valve


    140,000 700

    120,000 600

    100,000 500

    80,000 400

    60,000 300

    40,000 200

    20,000 100

    0 0
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
    Planning Bill at Wilkin

     Each product belonging to a product family has a sales history


     An estimate is calculated on the average amount of products sold per
    day in each quarter and for the last four quarters.
     A prediction is made concerning the mean daily sales of each product
    for the next full year.
     The forecast of the family product is distributed among each product
    according to a percent of sales and from this; an estimate is made of
    potential future sales.
     A projection is held on the yearly sales for each product in a family.
    Problem Statement

     To find a method for forecasting sales, by using statistical analysis taking


    into account both the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the
    influencing factors.
     Issues that have to be catered-
    • Ease of using forecasting process
    • Reliability of the sales forecast
    • Impact of occasional price promotions
    • Use of economic information to facilitate forecasts
    • Methods to forecast demand of new product
    Recommendations

     PVB
    This product is dependent upon the external environmental factors-
    unemployment, interest rates and housing starters, along with the various
    qualitative factors. Hence, regression analysis to forecast sales figures for each
    quarter is recommended
     Fire Valves
    Current forecasting method is appropriate for this product since the statistical
    dependency of the sale of fire valves on external factors was found to be
    insignificant
    THANK YOU

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