Nuclear Program of

Pakistan: Safety, Security &

International Concerns
SICS-Smart Institute of Civil
Services
Subject: Pak Affairs-CSS CSS/PMS Preparation
By: Imran Zahoor
986, Ravi Block near Karim Block
Ph. D in IR
[email protected] roundabout, Iqbal Town, Lahore
Contact:0321-4800309 Contact: for Admission
0321-4064707/0321-4800309

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Lecture Outline
• What are Nuclear Weapons?
• Nuclear States
• Development of Pakistan Nuclear Program
• Why Did Pakistan Start its Nuclear Program?
• Command & Control of Pakistan Nuclear Weapons
• Five Pillars of Pakistan’s Nuclear Security
• Are Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons safe?
– Int. Concerns over security of Pakistan’s Weapns
– Pak Nuclear Program under Obama Administration
– How Trump Administration can Deteriorate Pakistan Nuclear Assets?
– How to Respond These Threats by Pakistan?
• Sample-How to Attempt the Question?

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

What are Nuclear Weapons?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wxWNAM8Cso
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jU3kvXOI5B8
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-
Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 Nuclear States
• There are eight sovereign states that have successfully
exploded nuclear weapons.

• Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon States (NWS) under

the terms of (NPT).

– These are: the US, Russia, U.K, France, and China.

• India, Pakistan, and North Korea

– North Korea had been a party to the NPT but withdrew in 2003.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
Development of Pakistan Nuclear Program
• 1956
– The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) established
• 1960
– The U.S. gave Pakistan a $350,000 grant to help prepare the country
for its first research reactor.
• 1965
– Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology (PINSTECH)
established
• 1972
– Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto initiated Pakistan nuclear Program

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Development of Pakistan Nuclear Program
• 1974
– Indian nuclear explosion nuclear gave Pakistan's nuclear programme
momentum
• 1975
– The arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan accelerated nuclear weapons
efforts.
• 1985
• Pakistan crossed the threshold of weapons-grade uranium production
• 1986
• Pakistan produced enough fissile material to make a nuclear bomb.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Development of Pakistan Nuclear Program

• 1998
– Pakistan successfully conducted five nuclear tests
in response to the five Indian nuclear test.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Command & Control of Pakistan Nuclear Weapons

National Command Authority (NCA).

Strategic Plans Division (SPD).

Services Strategic Force Command

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Command & Control of Pakistan Nuclear
Weapons
National Command • Responsibilities
Authority (NCA) • Policy formulation
• Established-2000 A.D • Decision making
• NCA, chaired by the P.M • Research and
of Pakistan. development
• The NCA has two • Operational command
committees and control.
– The Employment Control
Committee
– The Development Control
Committee

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
Command & Control of Pakistan Nuclear Weapons

• Strategic Plans Division

(SPD)
• Responsibilities
– Management of the nuclear
capability
– To manage administrative &
financial affairs
– Handle security aspects of the
nuclear entities

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Command & Control

• Services Strategic Force

Command
Responsibilities
• Guardian of the delivery
systems
• Training
• Maintenance

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Five Pillars of Pakistan’s Nuclear Security

• 1-Well-defined, strong command and control

system.

• 2-Anchor with Multi-Layered defense

– To counter any nuclear threat - insider, outsider.
– Five Ds - deter, detect, delay, defend, and destroy.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Five Pillars of Pakistan’s Nuclear Security

• 3-An accurate regulatory regime related to

nuclear safety

– Physical protection of materials

– Control and transport security
– Prevention of illegal trafficking
– Deal with possible radiological emergencies

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Five Pillars of Pakistan’s Nuclear Security

• 4- A comprehensive Export Control Regime.

• The regulatory, administrative and enforcement
measures
• To ensure into provisions of IAEA, NSG, the Missile
Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
• 5-International cooperation: consistent with our
national policies and interests as well as international
obligations

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

Are Pakistan’s
Nuclear
Weapons safe?

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Int. Concerns over security of Pakistan’s Weapons

• After 9/11 terrorist attacks, Western nations started to

propagate about the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear
assets.
• An armed group or individual from outside can access to
nuclear weapons.
– Non state actors-Al-Qaeda or Daish
• A person from within the setup gets control on nuclear
weapon.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Int. Concerns over security of Pakistan’s Weapons

• The rapid expansion of Pakistan's nuclear weapons

programme
– introduce new vulnerabilities in security system.
• Leakage of sensitive information
• Loss of Central Control of
– In case of civil war

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Pak Nuclear Program under Obama Administration

In the final years of presidency, Obama

built pressure on Pakistan on three
areas.
– to cease from deploy short-range tactical
nuclear weapons
– to stop development of long-range missiles
– Prevent further production of fissile
materials.
• These demands were firmly rejected by
Pakistan
– It means to compromise to counter India’s
Cold Start doctrine.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How Trump Administration can Deteriorate
Pakistan Nuclear Assets?

• Trump administration can

Deteriorate Pakistan Nuclear
Arsenals in following ways:
– Pakistan’s is non-cooperative on
proliferation issues
– New allegations of proliferation
activities
– Safety concerns regarding Pakistan’s
nuclear weapons and fissile material
stockpiles

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How Trump Administration can Deteriorate
Pakistan Nuclear Assets?

• Takeover on nuclear weapons by

Islamist militants or the
radicalization of the Pakistan Army

• Labeling of Pakistan as a ‘state

sponsor of terrorism

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?

• A significant expansion
of its nuclear warheads
Strategic Measures and missile systems

• Dispersal and disguise

of nuclear and missile
locations

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?
• Hardened silos for missile
systems

Strategic Measures • One/two ABM systems to

protect command/control
centre

• Access of nuclear
submarines equipped
with long-range nuclear
missiles.
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?

• Firstly, Pakistan gets

full support from
Diplomatic Measures China on its nuclear
challenges.
– China can veto any
resolution against
Pakistan nuclear
program .

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?

• Second, Pakistan should

put forward several
Diplomatic Measures credible proposals to
India for mutual nuclear
and conventional arms
control such as:
– full transparency on troop
movements
– limit the size of military
exercises
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?

– To limit on nuclear
warheads and delivery
Diplomatic Measures systems
– A bilateral treaty to
ban ABM.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?
• Such an initiative would
demonstrate three
elements

Diplomatic Measures – Pakistan’s sincere desire for

conflict avoidance with India

– Strategic stability in South

Asia

– Reverse the negative public

perceptions against Pakistan
nuclear program by the
Indian and US media.
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 How to Respond These Threats by
Pakistan?
• Such an initiatives would
demonstrate three
elements

Diplomatic Measures – Pakistan’s sincere desire for

conflict avoidance with India

– Strategic stability in South

Asia

– Reverse the negative public

perceptions against Pakistan
nuclear program by the
Indian and US media.
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 How to Respond These Threats by Pakistan?

• Third, Pakistan should

press the US for
termination of the
discriminatory restrictions
against Pakistan’s Nuclear
Diplomatic Measures in a two ways”

– First , the US should offer

Pakistan civilian nuclear
cooperation

– Second, to support Pakistan for

NSG membership on an equal
footing with India.
•
SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309
 Sample-How to Attempt the Question

Q: West is constantly propagating a

negative perception that Pakistan
Nuclear Weapons are unsafe and risky. Is
this statement is defensible. Justify
logically and rationally.

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Sample-How to Attempt the Question
• Q: West is constantly propagating a negative perception that
Pakistan Nuclear Weapons are unsafe and risky. Is this statement is
defensible. Justify logically and rationally.
• Introductory Paragraph
• Nuclear Doctrine of Pakistan
– Minimum credible deterrence.
– Principle of massive retaliation
– Avoid to nuclear arms race with India.
– To support international arms control regimes
– To participate in the FMCT negotiations.
– Refrain from further nuclear testing.
– To strengthen existing command and Control System
• Why West Propagate against Pak. Nuclear Weapons
• Major Concerns
– Pakistan a country-State sponsor of terrorism
– Radicalization of Pak Army
– Inside and outside threats
– Non-cooperative on proliferation issues
– Politically immature state
– Loss of Central Control in case of civil war

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309

 Sample-How to Attempt the Question

• Pakistan Hold a Secured Command System of Nuclear

Weapons
Five Pillars of Pakistan’s Nuclear Security
1. Well-defined, strong command and control system.
 NCA, Strategic Plans Division (SPD) and Services Strategic Force Command
2. Anchor with Multi-Layered defense
3. An accurate regulatory regime related to nuclear safety
4. A comprehensive Export Control Regime
5. International Co-operation
 Conclusion

SICS-Smart Institute for Civil Services-986-Ravi Block A-I-T LHR-03214800309