Statistics For Effective Project Management

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STATISTICS FOR EFFECTIVE

PROJECT MANAGEMENT
WHY PROJECTS GET FAILED
WHAT ARE BASELINES?
 Baselines provide context for the setting of targets and
capture the situation before a development intervention
begins, or at the beginning of a time period that will be
monitored and assessed.
 Baselines describe the conditions prior to programming
efforts. The present situation!
 Essential to make credible and meaningful assessments on
progress towards outcomes
WHAT ARE TARGETS
 Targets set the level for the magnitude of change
expected by the end of a predetermined time period.
They reflect what organizations commit themselves to
achieve by the end of some duration of time.

 Targets provide tangible and meaningful points of


discussion with beneficiaries, stakeholders, and partners,
and allow us to add further specificity to the outcomes
from the results logic.
BASELINES AND TARGETS
SUMMARY
 A baseline is the value of the indicator before the
implementation of the project starts
 Targets orients stakeholders to the tasks to be
accomplished
 Targets help establish clear expectations
 Targets serve as the guideposts for monitoring whether
progress is being made
 Targets promote transparency
AVERAGE ONLY NOT SUFFICIENT ALWAYS

Data Set 1 Data Set 2

5 1
5 5
5 9

Average/Mean 5 5
SD 0 4
Data With Less Variability

data Mean SD CV 20.00

10.5 10.00 0.7 7% 18.00

9.5 10.00 16.00

10 10.00 14.00

11 10.00 12.00

Data
9 10.00 10.00
Mean
10.5 10.00 8.00 data

9.5 10.00 6.00

10 10.00 4.00

11 10.00 2.00

9 10.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
time
Data With High Variability
data Mean SD CV 20.00
3 10.00 6.9 69%
18.00
17 10.00
8 10.00 16.00
18.5 10.00 14.00
3.5 10.00
3 10.00 12.00

Data
17 10.00 10.00
8 10.00 Mean
8.00 data
18.5 10.00
3.5 10.00 6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
time
Data With Trend

45.00

40.00

35.00

30.00

25.00
Data

Avg
20.00 data
Linear (data)
15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
time
Data With Seasonality
Designed Experiment Terminology
 Response:
 Mfg: Yield of a Process
 Service: Customer Satisfaction
 Controlled Factors: set to predefined levels for DOE
 Mfg: Kiln Temp., Fill Pressure, Material Moisture
 Service: Process Design, Follow-up
 Uncontrollable Factors: factors that cannot be
controlled in actual operations, but may be controlled
during experimentation.
Mfg: Humidity, air pollution
Service: Arrival rate, efficiency
Implications of Interaction
 We may think a factor is unimportant if we don’t vary
other factors at the same time.
 We may improve the process, but it only works if other
factors remain constant.
 We may be able to reduce the effect of a factor by
minimizing variation of another
DOE Plan for Identifying Significance Causes for Brown Patches

IG Nitrile Hand Protection Glove - Plant


Product: N2

Goal and Objective: The goal is improve quality level of the product . The objective is to determine significance factors causes to occur
brown patches in latex glove .

Factors and Levels: FACTORS NAME LEVEL 1(Low) LEVEL 2(High)


A Oven Residance Time
B Oven Temperature
Colour pigment
C concentration
Accelerator
D concentration

Interactions Factor 1 xFactor 2 x Factor 3


AxC Oven Residance Time Colour pigment concentration
AxD Oven Residance Time Accelerator concentration
BxC Oven Temperature Colour pigment concentration
BxD Oven Temperature Accelerator concentration
Colour pigment
AxBXC Oven Residance Time Oven Temperature concentration
AxBXD Oven Temperature Colour pigment concentration Accelerator concentration

Experiment Design: The experiment design selected in this case is 4 Factor, 2 Levels. It is a design with 16 experiment runs. Each run need to
record if there any brown patches occurred in test parameters. Each run need to run 5 samples

Conduct the Experiment Experiment conditions are tested in the lab environment before put in the commercial run.
and Collect the Data:
Statistical Process Control

Objective : “Early detection and prevention”

SPC is a method to monitor the ongoing


process such as production and operation
7 tools in Statistical Process Control

“the magnificent seven” in SPC


 Histograms/Stem & leaf
 Check Sheet
 Pareto Chart
 Cause & effect diagrams
 Defect concentration diagrams
 Scatter plots
 Control charts (1920s by Walter A. Shewhart)
Control Chart
Guidelines for Selecting Uni-variate Control
Chart
Shewhart Theory of Variation
Inherent or Neutral variability
always exists in any process

 We cant eliminate variations, but we can control them


Xbar-S Chart
Factors for Control Charts

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