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    Air Travel Demand Forecasting

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    hamza
    This document provides an overview of airport forecasting methods. It discusses conventional methods like judgment, surveys, and trend analysis. It also describes analytical models including generation models, distribution models, mode choice models, and combined generation-distribution models to forecast airport demand. Generation models use market analysis, regression analysis, and cross-classification analysis to predict trip generation. Distribution models allocate trips spatially. Modal choice models assign trips to transportation modes. The document outlines variables, procedures, and examples of applying these different forecasting techniques.

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    Air Travel Demand Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    hamza
    58 views21 pages
    This document provides an overview of airport forecasting methods. It discusses conventional methods like judgment, surveys, and trend analysis. It also describes analytical models including generation models, distribution models, mode choice models, and combined generation-distribution models to forecast airport demand. Generation models use market analysis, regression analysis, and cross-classification analysis to predict trip generation. Distribution models allocate trips spatially. Modal choice models assign trips to transportation modes. The document outlines variables, procedures, and examples of applying these different forecasting techniques.

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    Air travel demand forecasting

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    This document provides an overview of airport forecasting methods. It discusses conventional methods like judgment, surveys, and trend analysis. It also describes analytical models including generation models, distribution models, mode choice models, and combined generation-distribution models to forecast airport demand. Generation models use market analysis, regression analysis, and cross-classification analysis to predict trip generation. Distribution models allocate trips spatially. Modal choice models assign trips to transportation modes. The document outlines variables, procedures, and examples of applying these different forecasting techniques.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    58 views21 pages

    Air Travel Demand Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    hamza
    This document provides an overview of airport forecasting methods. It discusses conventional methods like judgment, surveys, and trend analysis. It also describes analytical models including generation models, distribution models, mode choice models, and combined generation-distribution models to forecast airport demand. Generation models use market analysis, regression analysis, and cross-classification analysis to predict trip generation. Distribution models allocate trips spatially. Modal choice models assign trips to transportation modes. The document outlines variables, procedures, and examples of applying these different forecasting techniques.

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    Airport Engineering

    Forecasting

    Lecture 9
    LECTURE OUTLINE

     Introduction to Forecasting

     Conventional Methods

     Analytical Methods
     Generation Models

     Distribution Models

     Mode Choice Models

     Generation-Distribution Models

     Airport Choice Models


    INTRODUCTION

    In a mode in which demand is continuously


    increasing at a significant rate, an estimate of
    the magnitude of demand at future points in
    time is essential.

    3
    INTRODUCTION

    Forecasting is necessary due to the following


    reasons

     To get an idea of the number of new aircrafts


    required
     To help airlines in their long term planning
     To assist government in airport planning

    4
    CONVENTIONAL METHODS

     Judgment
     Surveys of expectations
     Trend forecasting
     Base forecasting

    5
    ANALYTICAL METHODS

    DEMAND MODELING

    Conventionally, modeling procedure is divided


    into four distinct consecutive steps.
    Modal
    Generation Distribution Assignment
    choice

    6
    ANALYTICAL METHODS

    DEMAND MODELLING

    In case of air transport, the model chain is


    simplified as follows:

    Air Trip Generation Air Trip Distribution

    7
    VARIABLES FOR DEMAND MODELING

    The basic factors used in the passenger demand modeling are


    as follows:

     A supply of people
     A motivation to travel
     Resources available (time and money)
     Transport infrastructure

    8
    DEMAND ANALYSIS PROCEDURE
     Observation of past trends
     Identification of external variables that act as alternatives to
    the basic factors
     A base survey collecting the socioeconomic data
     Establishment of relationships between variables and level of
    transport demand
     Prediction of variables in the design year
     Prediction of future demand from relationships.

    9
    GENERATION MODELS
     Market Analysis

     Trend Analysis (As described earlier)

     Cross-classification analysis

     Regression Analysis

    10
    GENERATION MODELS
     Cross-Classification Analysis

     Population stratified into segments according to socio-


    economic characteristics
     Behavior of each segment is estimated
     Constant trip rate of each segment assumed
     Future demand is computed on the basis of forecasted segment
    sizes

    11
    GENERATION MODELS

    12
    DISTRIBUTION MODELS

    13
    DISTRIBUTION MODELS

    14
    MODAL CHOICE MODELS

     Generate non-mode-specific intercity movements

     Distribute according to travel limitations

    15
    MODAL CHOICE MODELS

    16
    GENERATION-DISTRIBUTION MODELS

     Two types

     Mode-specific Models
     Multimodal Models

    17
    MODE-SPECIFIC MODELS

    18
    MULTI-MODAL MODELS

    19
    AIRPORT CHOICE MODELS

    20
    Any
    Questions

    21

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