Learning Outcomes

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Learning Outcomes

• Mahasiswa akan dapat mengaplikasikan model simulasi ke


berbagai permasalahan khususnya untuk simulasi atrian.
Simulasi persediaan dalam berbagai contoh..

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Outline Materi:
• Pengertian
• Simulasi Atrian
• Simulasi Persediaan
• Simulasi Transpostrasi
• Contoh penggunaan

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Building a Simulation Model

• General Principles
– The system is broken down into suitable components or entities
– The entities are modeled separately and are then connected to a model
describing the overall system
 A bottom-up approach!
• The basic principles apply to all types of simulation models
– Static or Dynamic
– Deterministic or Stochastic
– Discrete or continuous
• In BPD (Birth and Death Processes) and OM situations computer based
Stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (e.g. in Extend) is the natural choice
– Focuses on events affecting the state of the system and skips all intervals in
between

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Steps in a BPD Simulation Project

1. Problem formulation Phase 1


Problem Definition
2. Set objectives and overall project
plan
Phase 2
3. Model conceptualization 4. Data Collection
Model Building
5. Model Translation

No Phase 3
6. Verified
Yes Experimentation
No No
7. Validated
Yes
8. Experimental Design
Phase 4
Implementation
9. Model runs and
analysis
Yes No 11. Documentation, reporting
10. More runs
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and
implementation
Model Verification and Validation

• Verification (efficiency)
– Is the model correctly built/programmed?
– Is it doing what it is intended to do?
• Validation (effectiveness)
– Is the right model built?
– Does the model adequately describe the reality you want to model?
– Does the involved decision makers trust the model?

 Two of the most important and most challenging issues in performing a


simulation study

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Model Verification Methods

• Find alternative ways of describing/evaluating the system and compare


the results
– Simplification enables testing of special cases with predictable outcomes
 Removing variability to make the model deterministic
 Removing multiple job types, running the model with one job type at a time
 Reducing labor pool sizes to one worker

• Build the model in stages/modules and incrementally test each module


– Uncouple interacting sub-processes and run them separately
– Test the model after each new feature that is added
– Simple animation is often a good first step to see if things are working as intended

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Validation - an Iterative Calibration Process

The Real System


Conceptual
validation

Conceptual Model
Calibration and 1. Assumptions on system components
Validation 2. Structural assumptions which define the
interactions between system components
3. Input parameters and data assumptions

Model
verification

Operational Model
(Computerized representation)

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Example 1: Simulation of a M/M/1 Queue
• Assume a small branch office of a local bank with only one teller.
• Empirical data gathering indicates that inter-arrival and service times are
exponentially distributed.
– The average arrival rate =  = 5 customers per hour
– The average service rate =  = 6 customers per hour
• Using our knowledge of queuing theory we obtain
  = the server utilization = 5/6  0.83
– Lq = the average number of people waiting in line
– Wq = the average time spent waiting in line
Lq = 0.832/(1-0.83)  4.2 Wq = Lq/   4.2/5  0.83
• How do we go about simulating this system?
– How do the simulation results match the analytical ones?

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Example 2: Antrian saluran Tunggal
Misalkan data empiris tentang distribusi kurun waktu antara pertibaan dan distribusi
waktu pelayanan sbb:

Kurun waktu antara Peluang Kurun waktu Peluang


Pertibaan (menit) pelayanan (menit)

0-4 0,4 0-2 0,4

4-8 0,3 2-4 0,4

8 - 12 0,2 4-6 0,2

12 – 16 0,1

Variabel acak yang harus disimulasi secara langsung ialah :


a. Kurun waktu antara pertibaan (T)
b. Kurun waktu pelayanan (L), lalu
c) Buatlah SIMULASI untuk menggambarkan satu periode waktu yg
mencakup 10 pertibaan ?

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Struktur Simulasi untuk T
Harga variabel acak Peluang f(b) Peluang kumulatif Selang 0-1 bilangan acak
untuk waktu pertibaan F(b) terdistribusi. (1)
(b)
2 0,4 0,4 0,0 -- 0,4

6 0,3 0,7 0,4 – 0,7

10 0,2 0,9 0,7 – 0,9

14 0,1 1,0 0,9 -- 1,0

Perlu dicatat bahwa titik tengah selang ditetapkan sebagai variabel acak..
Kemudian untuk struktur simulasi L dapat dilihat berikut ini :

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Struktur Simulasi untuk L
Harga variabel acak Peluang f(t) Peluang kumulatif Selang 0-1 bilangan acak
untuk waktu pelayanan F(t) terdistribusi. (2)
(t)
1 0,4 0,4 0,0 -- 0,4

2 0,4 0,8 0,4 – 0,8

3 0,2 1,0 0,8 – 1,0

Maka satu simulasi untuk satu periode waktu yang mencakup 10 pertibaan adalah
seperti berikut ini :

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Struktur Simulasi GI/G/1
Perti U1 b Masuk sistem Panjang Waktu Waktu U2 t Selesai Waktu
baan pd waktu ( I) antrian habis servis pd servis pd luang
dlm waktu waktu pelayanan
antrian (II) (III)

1 -- -- 0 0 0 0 0,612 3 3 0

2 0,900 14 14 0 0 14 0,484 3 17 11

3 0,321 2 16 0 1 17 0,048 1 18 0

4 0,211 2 18 0 0 18 0,605 3 21 0

5 0,021 2 20 0 1 21 0,583 3 24 0

6 0,198 2 22 0 2 24 0,773 3 27 0

7 0,383 2 24 0 3 27 0,054 1 28 0

8 0,107 2 26 1 2 28 0,853 5 33 0

9 0,799 10 36 0 0 36 0,313 1 34 3

10 0,439 6 42 0 0 42 0,200 1 43 5

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