Hurricanes: A Survival Guide' Project
Hurricanes: A Survival Guide' Project
Hurricanes: A Survival Guide' Project
This map shows the tracks of all Tropical cyclones which formed worldwide from 1985 to 2005
Migration of Hurricanes
• hurricane tracks curve eastward and they speed up north of
~30°N
• active in the "trade wind" belts north or south of the
equator where the winds blow steadily from east to west
• initiated by weak pressure perturbations that exist in the
tropics.
• move west with the trade winds in a steady, relatively slow
motion (1020 km/hour).
• intensify primarily through release of latent heat in
surrounding clouds; small percentage reach full hurricane
intensity.
Global warming and hurricanes
• Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) increase of 0.25-
0.5C over past several decades
• Future projections linking global warming to hurricane
trends are hotly debated
• Role of Global Climate Models
• Uncertainties and limitations
– Year-to-year and multidecadal variability in SST and hurricane
activity
– Variation in historical and regional hurricane data
– Temporal limitations: reliable satellite data only last 30 years
Three ‘take home’ points
• A likely increase in hurricane intensity with rising
tropical SSTs
• Regions of hurricane origin likely to remain
unchanged
• Uncertainty surrounding impacts of increasing
SSTs on hurricane frequency
Useful resources
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm