Hurricanes: A Survival Guide' Project

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Hurricanes

A ‘Survival Guide’ Project


W4400: Dynamics of Climate Variability and Climate Change
Emily Firth, Bali White
What are hurricanes?
(AKA cyclones and typhoons)
• intense low pressure disturbances 
• Form, migrate over tropical ocean regions
• conditions  required:    high  SST  (>  26°C)  and  weak  vertical  wind 
shears. 
• intense winds and very strong convective activity
• ­> thunderstorms and large amounts of rainfall.
• takes days or a week to form
• spreads over a radius of a few hundred kilometers. 
• surrounded by rings of towering thunder clouds spiraling up to a small 
circle at the center of the storm­­the eye. 
• winds here can reach a speed of 100+ km/hour  and the most intense 
rainfall occurs. 
• inside eye, air is still and convection suppressed by (subsidence). has a 
radius of 30­40 km. 
• major damage potential / loss of life when they make landfall.
 Typhoon Durian,
Philippines Dec 2006
A regional snapshot

North Atlantic Ocean


West Pacific Ocean
East Pacific Ocean
North Indian Ocean

South Indian Ocean SW Pacific Ocean

 This map shows the tracks of all Tropical cyclones which formed worldwide from 1985 to 2005
Migration of Hurricanes
• hurricane tracks curve eastward and they speed up north of 
~30°N 
• active  in  the  "trade  wind"  belts  ­  north  or  south  of  the 
equator where the winds blow steadily from east to west
• initiated  by  weak  pressure  perturbations  that  exist  in  the 
tropics.  
• move west with the trade winds in a steady, relatively slow 
motion (10­20 km/hour). 
• intensify  primarily  through  release  of  latent  heat  in 
surrounding  clouds;  small  percentage  reach  full  hurricane 
intensity.  
Global warming and hurricanes
• Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) increase of 0.25-
0.5C over past several decades
• Future projections linking global warming to hurricane
trends are hotly debated
• Role of Global Climate Models
• Uncertainties and limitations
– Year-to-year and multidecadal variability in SST and hurricane
activity
– Variation in historical and regional hurricane data
– Temporal limitations: reliable satellite data only last 30 years
Three ‘take home’ points
• A likely increase in hurricane intensity with rising
tropical SSTs
• Regions of hurricane origin likely to remain
unchanged
• Uncertainty surrounding impacts of increasing
SSTs on hurricane frequency
Useful resources

• HURDAT: Atlantic basin hurricane database


www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third


Assessment Report. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

• Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia


www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricanes View of the
eyewall of
Hurricane Katrina
taken on Aug 28,
2005.

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