Errors in Epidemiology

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Errors in

Epidemiological
studies
Dr. Jag
ath Am
Consu arasek
ltant E era
Epidem pi de m
iology iologis
Unit t
Types of errors
Random error
- Due to chance
- Can be measured

Systematic errors
- Bias
- Confounding (sometimes called
confounding bias)
Why random error???
Normal distribution of variables
in the population
Inference given for population
based on studying a sample
Can be calculated
Role of chance
In g
eneral
sampl , samp
e size ling er
S am increa ror de
ple siz s e s c reases
e c as the
Pro alculati
babilit o n is im
(P va y of a va portant
lue) l u e o c cu
Gen rring d
erally ue to c
P valu hance
e is ca
lculate
d for 5
% and
1%
Systematic errors

Bias and confounding


Role of systematic errors
cannot be measured
They can be minimized
Bias

Systematic error in an epidemiological


study that results in an incorrect estimate of
the association between exposure and risk of
disease.
Possible bias should be identified and minimized
when designing a study
of B i as
Examp l es
n ti a l
e si de s
n pr kd a y
e r ic a w e e
m
: A study o n
e g s)
b ia s o u s e r b ia
c ti o n to h e r ve
le s e b s
Se er, hou s ( e g : o
win n n b ia
a ti o
fo r m
In l b i a s
e c al w u p
R o fo l lo
s t
Los
Confounder
Confounder is a variable which is
independently associated with the
exposure (risk factor) and the outcome
Minimize confounding
Design stage:
Restriction
Matching
Randomization (in intervention studies only)
for unknown confounders as well
Analysis stage:
Stratification
Multiple variable regression analysis
Cohort study assessing obesity as a risk factor for CVD

Age50 Age50
CVD NoCVD Total CVD NoCVD Total
Obese 10 90 100 Obese 36 164 200
Not Not
35 465 500 25 175 200
Obese Obese
Total 45 555 600 Total 61 339 400
Effect modifier
Effect modification : a variable that
differentially (positively and
negatively) modifies the observed
effect of a risk factor on disease
status.
Different groups have different risk
estimates when effect modification is
present
Define validity???
Define reliability???

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