Butte-Silver Bow County

Hazard Mitigation Plan

Update

Contractor: Tetra Tech, Inc.

Daphne Digrindakis
406-443-5210
 PROJECT BACKGROUND

 Butte-Silver Bow submitted a planning grant

to FEMA to update the Hazard Mitigation Plan
 Tetra Tech contracted to update Plan
 BSB would prepare maps/Tetra Tech would
perform a Level 2 HAZUS earthquake analysis
 6 Month Project Schedule
 WHY UDATE THE
HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN
 Updated required by FEMA every 5 years to
receive disaster mitigation funds
 $100 million available annually through
competitive grants for hazard mitigation
projects included in Plan
 PLAN UPDATE

 Review Plans and Studies

 Update Map of Critical Facilities
 Update Risk Assessment
 Update Mitigation Goals and Objectives
 BSB County and Incorporated City of
Walkerville must Formally Adopt Plan
 HAZARDS IN BUTTE-SILVER BOW
 Aircraft Accidents
 Avalanche
 Communicable Disease
 Dam Failure
 Drought
 Earthquake
 Extended Cold and Winter Storms
 Flooding
 Hazardous Material Incidents
 Severe Thunderstorms, Wind and Hail
 Strikes & Civil Unrest
 Structure Fires
 Subsidence
 Terrorism & Violence
 Volcanic Ash
 Wildfire
 HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
 Profile Hazards
 Identify Hazard Risk Zones

 Inventory Assets
 Identify Critical Facilities – governments services, utilities,
transportation, infrastructure, schools, hospitals
 Spatially local critical facilities

 Determine replacement value for critical facilities

 Estimate Losses
 People Affected & Impact to Structures

 Calculate Risk
 HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
 Frequency
 # incidents / period of record
 SHELDUS data
 Magnitude
 (Property Damage / Number of Incidents) / Total $ of Building
Stock
 SHELDUS data
 Census data in HAZUS-MH
 Annualized Loss from Uniform Hazards (winter storms, wind/hail)
 Total Building Stock x Frequency x Magnitude
 Total Number of Buildings x Frequency x Magnitude
 Repeat for Critical Facilities
 Societal Risk – total population vulnerable
 HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
 Hazards not uniform across jurisdiction (flood, landslide, wildfire, hazmat)
 (Hazard area [sq mi] / census tract [sq mi]) x 100 = percentage of hazard
area
 Exposure in Hazard Area
 Building Stock $ in Census Tract x % Census Tract in Hazard Area
 # of Buildings in Census Tract x % Census Tract in Hazard Area
 Repeat for Critical Facilities and Vulnerable Populations
 Annualized Loss (when magnitude can be calculated)
 Building Stock in Census Tract x % Census Tract in Hazard Area x
Frequency x Magnitude
 # of Buildings in Census Tract x % Census Tract in Hazard Area x

Frequency x Magnitude
 Repeat for Critical Facilities
Dam Inundation Area
 Dam Failure Risk Assessment
 High Hazard Dams in Butte-Silver Bow
 Basin Creek Dam No.1
 Basin Creek Dam No.2

 Yankee Doodle Tailings Dam

Example Risk Assessment Calculations – Dam
Failure
 Census Tract 30093000500
 Calculate % of census tract in hazard area

 1.29 sq mi (tract area) x 0.29 sq mi (hazard area)

= 22.9% of tract in hazard area
 For each census tract: % Hazard Area x Tract
Building Stock Value = Vulnerability in hazard
area
 22.9% x $595,931,000 = $136,497,559

 Repeat for rest of census tracts in county

 Dam Failure Risk Assessment
 Vulnerability in Dam Inundation Areas
 $732,145,971 vulnerable building stock; 3,009
buildings
 $28,742,574 vulnerable critical facilities; 21
buildings
 Societal Risk
 620 persons under 18 years in hazard area
 1,199 persons over 65 years in hazard area
 1,473 persons living below poverty level in hazard
area
Earthquake Hazard Area
 Earthquake Risk Assessment
 HAZUS analysis - 6.5 magnitude earthquake
on Continental Fault
 Projected vulnerability:
 $358,291 loss to building stock
 $103,829,545 loss to critical facilities

 18 displaced households, 12 require short-term

sheltering
Earthquake Loss > 40% Loss
Earthquake Loss > $1 Million
Flood Hazard Area
 Flood Risk Assessment
 HAZUS 100-Year Flood Analysis
 $7,664,000 building damage loss
 $12,574,000 content damage loss

 $21,142,000 total direct economic building loss

 831 individuals displaced

 481 have short-term shelter needs

Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Flooding
 Census Tract 30093000500
 Total Building Stock = $4,330,461,000
 Census Tract Building Stock = $595,931,000
 Frequency = # Incidents/Period of Record
 6 Incidents / 49 Years = 0.12 Frequency
 Magnitude = (Property Damage / # Incidents) / Total $ of Building
Stock
 ($342,120 / 6) / $4,330,461,000 = 0.00957% Magnitude
 Calculate % of census tract in hazard area
 1.29 sq mi (tract) x 0.067 sq mi (hazard area) = 5.23% hazard area
 Annual Loss = Tract Building Stock x Frequency x Magnitude x %
hazard area
 $595,931,000 x 0.12 x 0.00957% x 5.23% = $365 Annual Loss
 Repeat for rest of census tracts
 Flood Risk Assessment
 Annual Loss
 $2,642 annual loss to building stock
 $0 annual loss to critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 300 persons affected under 18 years
 247 persons affected over 65 years

 120 persons affected living below poverty level

Hazard Materials Hazard Area
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Hazardous Materials
 Census Tract 30093000500
 Calculate % of census tract in hazmat buffer

 1.29 sq mi (tract area) x 0.63 sq mi (hazmat area)

= 49.06% of tract in hazard area
 For each census tract: % Hazard Area x Tract
Building Stock Value = Vulnerability in hazard
area
 49.06% x $595,931,000 = $292,345,929

 Repeat for rest of census tracts in county

 Hazardous Material Risk
Assessment
 Projected Vulnerability
 $2,179,750,275 building stock
 $277,262,371 critical facilities
 Societal Risk
 3,970 persons under 18 years in hazard area
 2,806 persons over 65 years in hazard area
 2,875 persons living below poverty level in hazard
area
Landslide Hazard Area
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Landslide
 Census Tract 30093000500
 Calculate % of census tract in hazmat buffer

 1.29 sq mi (tract area) x 0 sq mi (hazmat area) =

0% of tract in hazard area
 For each census tract: % Hazard Area x Tract
Building Stock Value = Vulnerability in hazard
area
 0% x $595,931,000 = $0

 Repeat for rest of census tracts in county

 Landslide Risk Assessment
 Projected Vulnerability
 $8,030,857 building stock
 $0 critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 15 persons under 18 years in hazard area
 6 persons over 65 years in hazard area

 4 persons living below poverty level in hazard area

 Structure Fire Risk Assessment
 Uniform risk across BSB County
 476 structure fires with over $5,000 in damage
since 1880
 Total property damage from these fires
estimated at: $ 24,157,336
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Structure Fires
 Total Building Stock = $4,330,461,000
 Frequency = # Incidents/Period of Record
 476 Incidents / 130 Years = 0.04 Frequency
 Magnitude = (Property Damage / # Incidents) / Total $
of Building Stock
 ($24,157,336 / 476 incidents) / $4,330,461,000 =
0.00029% Magnitude
 Annual Loss = Total Building Stock x Frequency x
Magnitude
 $ 4,330,461,000 x 0.04 x 0.00029% = $1,998,620
Annual Loss
 Structure Fire Risk Assessment
 Uniform risk across county
 Projected annual loss
 $1,998,620 to general building stock

 $15,755 to critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 8,017 persons under 18 years

 5,452 persons over 65 years

 4,920 persons living below poverty level

 Thunderstorm, Wind, Hail, Tornado Risk
Assessment
 Uniform risk across BSB County
 55 Incidents with property damage since 1960
reported to SHELDUS
 These incidents caused property damage
estimated at: $718,321
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Thunderstorm, Wind, Hail, Tornado
 Total Building Stock = $ 4,330,461,000
 Frequency = # Incidents/Period of Record

 55 Incidents / 49 Years = 1.12 Frequency

 Magnitude = (Property Damage / # Incidents) / Total $

of Building Stock
 ($718,321 / 55 incidents) / $ 4,330,461,000 = 0.0003%
Magnitude
 Annual Loss = Total Building Stock x Frequency x
Magnitude
 $ 4,330,461,000 x 1.12 x 0.0003% = $14,660 Annual
Loss
 Thunderstorm, Wind, Hail Risk
Assessment
 Projected annual loss
 $14,660 to building stock
 $1,147 to critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 8,017 persons under 18 years
 5,452 persons over 65 years

 4,920 persons living below poverty level

Wildfire Hazard Area
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Wildfire
 Census Tract 30093000500
 Total Building Stock = $4,330,461,000
 Census Tract Building Stock = $595,931,000
 Frequency = # Incidents/Period of Record
 2 Incidents / 49 Years = 0.04 Frequency
 Magnitude = (Property Damage / # Incidents) / Total $ of Building
Stock
 ($25,341 / 2) / $4,330,461,000 = 0.00029% Magnitude
 Calculate % of census tract in WUI
 1.29 sq mi (tract) x 1.29 sq mi (WUI) = 100% hazard area
 Annual Loss = Tract Building Stock x Frequency x Magnitude x %
hazard area
 $595,931,000 x 0.04 x 0.00029% x 100% = $71 Annual Loss
 Repeat for rest of census tracts
 Wildfire Risk Assessment
 Projected annual loss
 $472 to building stock
 $6 to critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 7,555 persons under 18 years in hazard area
 5,258 persons over 65 years in hazard area

 4,835 persons living below poverty level in hazard

area
 Winter Storm Risk Assessment
 Uniform risk across BSB County
 30 Incidents with damages reported to
SHELDUS since 1960
 Property damage from these incidents
estimated at $ 537,736
Example Risk Assessment Calculations –
Winter Storms
 Total Building Stock = $4,330,461,000
 Frequency = # Incidents/Period of Record

 30 Incidents /49 Years = 0.61 Frequency

 Magnitude = (Property Damage / # Incidents) / Total $

of Building Stock
 ($537,736 / 30 Incidents) / $4,330,461,000 = 0.00041%
Magnitude
 Annual Loss = Total Building Stock x Frequency x
Magnitude
 $4,330,461,000 x 0.61 x 0.00041% = $10,974 Annual
Loss
 Winter Storm Risk Assessment
 Projected annual loss
 $10,974 to building stock
 $854 to critical facilities

 Societal Risk
 8,017 persons under 18 years
 5,452 persons over 65 years

 4,920 persons living below poverty level

Risk Assessment Summary
Butte-Silver Bow County
Risk Assessment Summary
Walkerville
 UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY
Goals, Objectives, and Projects
 Project Ranking and Prioritization
 Population Protected
 Property Protected
 Project Feasibility
 Project Cost
 Implementation Steps and Schedule
 Responsible Agency for Implementation
 Potential Funding Sources
 County priority
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 1
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 2
UPDATING THE MITIGATION STRATEGY – Goal 3
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 4
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 5
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 6
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 7
UPDATING THE MITIGATION
STRATEGY – Goal 8
 ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION

 Montana DES & FEMA approve content of

Plan
 Butte-Silver Bow County and incorporated
city of Walkerville adopt plan
 Plan Maintenance
 Update every 5 years
 Draft Plan Review
 Project Website:
 www.bsb-hmpupdate.com
 Provide comments referencing page and line
number
 Hard Copy available at BSB-DES office
 30-Day Review Period
THANK YOU

QUESTIONS?