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    Demand Forecasting Methods PPT MBA

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    keshmu
    This document discusses various demand forecasting methods used in engineering economics including statistical and non-statistical approaches. Statistical methods include time series analysis, regression analysis, and trend projections which analyze historical demand data over time. Non-statistical methods include survey methods like consumer surveys, collective opinion surveys, and Delphi surveys as well as market experiments conducted in laboratories or as test marketing in actual market conditions. Demand forecasting is important for business planning including production, inventory, personnel, and facilities.

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    Demand Forecasting Methods PPT MBA

    Uploaded by

    keshmu
    3K views20 pages
    This document discusses various demand forecasting methods used in engineering economics including statistical and non-statistical approaches. Statistical methods include time series analysis, regression analysis, and trend projections which analyze historical demand data over time. Non-statistical methods include survey methods like consumer surveys, collective opinion surveys, and Delphi surveys as well as market experiments conducted in laboratories or as test marketing in actual market conditions. Demand forecasting is important for business planning including production, inventory, personnel, and facilities.

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    DFM for MBA quick brief to get through

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    Demand Forecasting Methods Ppt MBA

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    This document discusses various demand forecasting methods used in engineering economics including statistical and non-statistical approaches. Statistical methods include time series analysis, regression analysis, and trend projections which analyze historical demand data over time. Non-statistical methods include survey methods like consumer surveys, collective opinion surveys, and Delphi surveys as well as market experiments conducted in laboratories or as test marketing in actual market conditions. Demand forecasting is important for business planning including production, inventory, personnel, and facilities.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    3K views20 pages

    Demand Forecasting Methods PPT MBA

    Uploaded by

    keshmu
    This document discusses various demand forecasting methods used in engineering economics including statistical and non-statistical approaches. Statistical methods include time series analysis, regression analysis, and trend projections which analyze historical demand data over time. Non-statistical methods include survey methods like consumer surveys, collective opinion surveys, and Delphi surveys as well as market experiments conducted in laboratories or as test marketing in actual market conditions. Demand forecasting is important for business planning including production, inventory, personnel, and facilities.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    of 20

    Engineering economics

    Demand Forecasting Methods

    Forecasting
    Predict the next number in the pattern:
    a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, ?

    b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5, ?


    c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5, ?

    Forecasting
    Predict the next number in the pattern:
    a) 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7, 3.7,

    3.7

    b) 2.5, 4.5, 6.5, 8.5, 10.5,

    12.5
    9.0

    c) 5.0, 7.5, 6.0, 4.5, 7.0, 9.5, 8.0, 6.5,

    What is Forecasting?
    Process of predicting a future event based on historical data Educated Guessing Underlying basis of all business decisions
    Production Inventory Personnel Facilities

    INTRODUCTION
    In modern business, production is often made in anticipation of demand. Anticipation of demand implies demand forecasting. Forecasting means expectations about the future course of development.

    Demand forecasting

    Statistical methods Survey method

    Non statistical methods

    Time series

    Market experiments

    Regression

    Trend projection

    Complete survey

    Sample survey Simulated marketing

    Graphical

    Delphi survey

    Opinion survey Test marketing

    Meaning of Demand Forecasting


    Demand forecasting means expectations about the future course of the market demand for the product.

    NON-STATASTICAL METHOD
    SURVEY METHOD MARKET EXPERIMENTS

    SURVEY METHOD
    The survey is the most direct approach to demand forecasting in the short run. It may be a sample survey or a census inquiry. A census inquiry means the inquiry of the entire universe or population.

    The three variants of the survey method


    The consumer survey method. The collective method. Delphi method.

    The Consumer Survey


    A sample survey of the consumers may be undertaken questioning them about what they are planning or intending to buy. Drawbacks of the consumer Survey method This method is expensive. It is time consuming.

    The Collective Opinion


    Under the collective opinion method the salesmen have to report to the head office their estimates of expectations of the sales in the territories. The opinion method is cheaper and easy to handle, it is time consuming also. Drawback High element of bias of the reporting agency.

    Delphi method
    Olaf helmer originated the Delphi method in the late 1940s.Delphi method is used for conducting opinion poll or survey. Under this method, the group of experts are repeatedly questioned for their opinion or comments on some issues and their agreements and disagreements are clearly identified.

    Forecasting During the Life Cycle


    Introduction Growth Maturity Decline

    Qualitative models - Executive judgment - Market research -Survey of sales force -Delphi method Sales

    Quantitative models - Time series analysis - Regression analysis

    Time

    MARKET EXPERIMENTATION
    Market experiments may be conducted to make certain specific observations. The two types of market experimentation Experimentation in laboratory. Test marketing.

    EXPERIMENTATION IN LABORATORY
    It is also referred to as the consumer clinic method. In this method, a consumer clinic or small laboratory is formed by creating an artificial market situation.

    TEST MARKETING
    In this method a market experiment is performed under actual market conditions. First a choice of the market for experiments is made and is segregated from the rest.

    Statistical Methods
    Once market demand data are collected by the marker survey or form the sales records of the firm demand forecasting can be possible from such a information. The Statistical methods Time Series Data. Trend Projections. Regression Analysis.

    TIME SERIES
    Time series data refers to data collected over a period of time recording historical changes in price, income and other relevant variables influencing demand for the commodity.

    TREND PROJECTIONS
    A time series analysis of sales data over a period of time is considered to serve as a good guide for sales or demand forecasting. Trends refer to the long term persistent movements of data in one direction upward or downward.

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