Technical Infosys

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INFOSYS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Submitted To: Prof. Nitender Dhillon

SAPM- H Bhupendra Jha Manish Jha Nitin Verma Sanjeev Kumar Vikrant Bhalla

Moving Average

Comparison done between short term moving average (10 day) and long term moving average (50 day) From Oct-08 to Feb-09 long term average is above short term average indicating downward momentum of stock Oct-08 crossover indicates sell signal to investor From Mar-09 onwards short term average is above long term average indicating upward momentum of stock Mar-09 crossover indicates buy signal to investor

Comparison among short term, medium term and long term MA Long term MA (200 day) is above shorter MA from Sept-08 to May-09 indicating downward momentum in the period Buy signal crossover observed at May-09 as short term MA crosses above long term and medium term MA Decision: Sell

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)


A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship

between two moving averages of prices Normally a nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals MACD generates bullish signals from three main sources Positive Divergence Bullish Moving Average Crossover Bullish Centerline Crossover

Decision: Sell

Price Rate Of Change


A technical indicator that measures the percentage change

between the most recent price and the price "n" periods in the past. It is calculated by using the following formula:
(Closing Price Today - Closing Price "n" Periods Ago) / Closing Price "n" Periods Ago ROC is classed as a price momentum indicator or a velocity indicator because it measures the rate of change or the strength of momentum of change.

Price Rate Of Change

Decision: Sell

Price Rate Of Change

Many traders use a value greater than zero to indicate an increase in upward momentum and a value less than zero to indicate an increase in selling pressure. However, some of the most valuable signals are generated when the price of the asset and the ROC are heading in opposite directions (known as divergence). For example, in the chart above you can see that the ROC is sloping downward while the price of the asset is increasing. This is generally an early indication that a sharp decline may be on the way.

Relative Strength Index


A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset.
RSI = 100 - 100/( 1 + RS) RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down

close

Large surges and drops in the price of an asset will affect the

RSI by creating false buy or sell signals. The RSI is best used as a valuable complement to other stock-picking tools

Relative Strength Index

Decision: Sell

Bollinger Bands
Provide a relative definition of high and low Based upon a simple moving average as it is used for standard

deviation calculation

Tightening of the bands is often used by technical traders as an

early indication that the volatility is about to increase sharply

Double bottom Buy: A Double Bottom Buy signal is given

when prices penetrate the lower band and remain above the lower band after a subsequent low form prices peak above the upper band and a subsequent peak fails to break above the upper band

Double Top Sell: A Double Top Sell signal is given when

Bollinger Bands

20 days moving average


Range: 6 months

Conclusion
With all the signals pointing towards bearish

sentiment for infosys, we go for a SELL for it

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