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    Climate Change Impacts On Surface Water: Bangladesh Perspective

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    Md Sifat Khan
    1) The document discusses the impacts of climate change on surface water resources in Bangladesh, with a focus on the southwest region which is dependent on the Ganges river. 2) It notes increasing occurrences of extreme floods in Bangladesh, with the five largest floods by inundated area occurring in the last 20 years. Sea level rise will exacerbate flooding impacts. 3) Salinity intrusion is increasing in the southwest coastal region due to reductions in freshwater flow and higher storm surges, affecting agriculture and drinking water.

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    Climate Change Impacts On Surface Water: Bangladesh Perspective

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    Md Sifat Khan
    39 views38 pages
    1) The document discusses the impacts of climate change on surface water resources in Bangladesh, with a focus on the southwest region which is dependent on the Ganges river. 2) It notes increasing occurrences of extreme floods in Bangladesh, with the five largest floods by inundated area occurring in the last 20 years. Sea level rise will exacerbate flooding impacts. 3) Salinity intrusion is increasing in the southwest coastal region due to reductions in freshwater flow and higher storm surges, affecting agriculture and drinking water.

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    1) The document discusses the impacts of climate change on surface water resources in Bangladesh, with a focus on the southwest region which is dependent on the Ganges river. 2) It notes increasing occurrences of extreme floods in Bangladesh, with the five largest floods by inundated area occurring in the last 20 years. Sea level rise will exacerbate flooding impacts. 3) Salinity intrusion is increasing in the southwest coastal region due to reductions in freshwater flow and higher storm surges, affecting agriculture and drinking water.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    39 views38 pages

    Climate Change Impacts On Surface Water: Bangladesh Perspective

    Uploaded by

    Md Sifat Khan
    1) The document discusses the impacts of climate change on surface water resources in Bangladesh, with a focus on the southwest region which is dependent on the Ganges river. 2) It notes increasing occurrences of extreme floods in Bangladesh, with the five largest floods by inundated area occurring in the last 20 years. Sea level rise will exacerbate flooding impacts. 3) Salinity intrusion is increasing in the southwest coastal region due to reductions in freshwater flow and higher storm surges, affecting agriculture and drinking water.

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    of 38

    Climate Change Impacts on Surface Water: Bangladesh Perspective

    Dr. Md. Shahjahan ALI Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET) Bangladesh

    GBM Basin
    Brahmaputra Basin 552,000 sq.km

    CHINA INDIA Ganges Basin 1,087,000 sq.km INDIA


    BANGLADESH

    BHUTAN

    Drainage basin inside Bangladesh Drainage basin outside Bangladesh

    8% 92 %
    Meghna Basin 82,000 sq.km

    BAY O F B E N GAL

    Water Resources
    River System : 24,000 km (about 500 rivers) 3.3 % of the total landmass
    Ganges (Inflow 380 BCM)

    Brahmaputra (Inflow 626 BCM)

    Meghna (Inflow 195 BCM

    Still Water Bodies: 7,400 km2 5.3% of total landmass Annual Average Rainfall: 2300 mm Trans-boundary Flow: 57 rivers

    Lower Meghna

    B A Y OF B E N G A L

    River System

    Sources of Water
    1200 BCM
    76.5 %

    Brahamaputra = 626 BCM Ganges =380 BCM Meghna = 195 BCM

    Trans-boundary Rainfall
    Ground water

    23 BCM
    Cubic meter

    343 BCM 22%

    1.5 %

    Sources of Drinking Water


    (1) Ground Water the main source of water supply in urban and rural areas Free from Pathogens and requires no treatment Urban Area: power driven production wells Vulnerable area for drinking water access to safe drinking water-99% supply Public water suply-47% Rural Area: Hand pumps 90% have access to tubewell within 150 m

    (2) Surface Water: Pond sand filter (suitable for coastal belt) -Vulnerable to Climate Change (3) Rain Water: Rain water harvesting (Suitable for arsenic affected areas) -Vulnerable to Climate Change

    Shortage of Drinking water in dry season due to Lowering GWT :


    1. 2. Over pumping for irrigation Less water in river
    Ground Water Level

    Surface water
    GW level reduced

    Predicted Sea Level Rise for Bangladesh


    Two Causes of SLR: Thermal expansion

    Land ice melting


    IPCC prediction: Conservative

    SLR due to ice melting = 4 to 230 mm by 2100


    Rapid dynamical changes in ice flow were excluded

    Pfeiffer et al. (2008): Including dynamic changes, SLR=2m by 2100

    Outline of this presentation


    Climate Change Impacts on following water-events: 1. Occurrence of Extreme Floods in Bangladesh

    2. Time Series of Main River Discharges (such as Ganges)


    3. Salinity in SW region of Bangladesh 4. Dependable River flow in SW Bangladesh 5. Rainfall in SW Bangladesh 6. Drainage Congestion in South West City (Khulna)

    7. Sundarban (Forest)

    1. Occurrence of Floods in Bangladesh

    (a

    Climate Change Impacts on Floods in Bangladesh


    120,000 80 70 60 100,000

    Area (sq. km)

    50 40 30 20

    60,000

    40,000

    20,000

    10 0 1954 1956 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1980 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year

    20% of the country inundated in a normal flood, the highest flood inundates 67% in 1998 The top 5 floods in terms of inundated area occurred in last 20 years in 60 years of history.

    Since 1970, 41 million people are became homeless and it is estimated that it will be 68 million till 2020 (Source. BBS, 2007; SLR is not considered).
    IPCC, 2007 reported that a 1m SLR will displace 14.8 million people by inundating 29,846 sq. km.

    % of total Area

    80,000

    Time-series of Floods indicate that there is impact of Climate Change on the Occurrence of frequent damaging floods.

    Lets think about future Impacts!


    1m sea level rise = 20% area flooded (IPCC, 2007) Nominal Flooding = 20% area inundation
    Nominal 1998 1998

    flooding + 1m SLR = 20% + 20% =?

    flood + 1m SLR = 67% + 20% =?


    flood + 1 m SLR + high tide/ Storm Surge = ?

    Learning from Historical Mega Floods (Ganges Basin)


    3

    Water depth above Danger Level (m)

    2008 (Normal Flood)

    1998

    1988

    No. of Days for WL above DL

    o 1998 Flood is the most devastating flood o Inundation close to 100,000 km2 o displaced more than 30 million people o 20 million homeless. o Estimated damage 2.8 billion USD ( for 1988 flood it was 1.2 billion USD)

    Fig.: WL above DL
    1

    0 Dinajpur Rajshahi Hardinge Bridge Goalundo Bhagyakul Gorai Rly Bridge

    100

    80

    2008 (Normal Flood)

    1998

    1988
    68 72

    60 47 41 40 28 20 3 0 Dinajpur Rajshahi Hardinge Bridge Goalundo Bhagyakul Gorai Rly Bridge 4 24 27 23 25 25

    Fig.: Durations of flood Although the depth of flood in 1988 and 1998 does not differ too much (such as at Bhagyakul point), the duration of flood in 1998 is much more than 1988 flood .

    Water depth above Danger Level (m)

    2008 (Normal Flood)


    2

    1998

    1988

    Ja m al pu r

    Ku ri g ra m

    Se ra jg an j

    M ym en s

    Ba ha du r

    No. of Days for WL above DL

    100 80 60 40 20 0 30 16 22 15

    2008 (Normal Flood)

    1998

    66 48 27 44

    68 57 33 23 8 10

    ar ay an ga nj

    1988 71

    31

    31

    36

    ha

    am

    ha ka

    an j

    ng h

    ar i

    ur

    nj

    Ja m

    ya ng a

    hi lm

    rig r

    ra jg

    Ar

    en si

    ur a

    Ku

    ha d

    Se

    ym

    Ba

    In Most of the locations of Brahmaputra basin, the inundation depth of 1998 flood is less than 1988 flood, BUT 1998 flood took more than double time to discharge out the flooded water.

    ar a

    Ta r

    ag ha

    ba

    ic

    al p

    Ta ra gh at

    Learning from Historical Mega Floods (Brahmaputra Basin)

    hi lm ar i

    in gh

    ab ad

    Ar ic

    ha ka

    ha

    66 65

    Learning from Historical Mega Floods :


    Why 1998 flood is so prolonged than 1988 or other floods?

    In addition to the high upstream flow and intense rainfall, elevated tides in the Bay of Bengal from the monsoon are the causes of 1998 flood. The elevated tides blocked outflow of the swollen rivers into the Bay of Bengal. So, Flood retention time increased
    SLR will also block the flood water outflow in the same manner, and flood water will be logged for prolonged period. Near future, a part of Bangladesh will act as a monsoon reservoir/ retention pond of the Bay of Bengal (?).

    South West Region of Bangladesh: The most vulnarable to Climate Change

    South West Region

    Ganges Dependent Area

    8000

    2. Climate Change Impacts on Ganges Discharge

    Ice Melting in Gangotri Glacier

    Discharges of Ganges River in Hardinge Bridge Point


    Distribution of Monthly Total Flow a year
    45000

    Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow During Monsoon


    40000 35000 30000
    Discharge

    50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
    Month

    1967 1992

    Discharge

    25000 20000 15000 10000 5000

    Mar

    0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991
    Year

    Annual Mean of Monthly Flow


    18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 Year 4000 3500 3000
    Discharge

    Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow during Dry Season

    Discharge

    2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991
    Year

    The impact of ice melting in Glaceirs is not identifiable in Ganges river discharges till now.

    Discharges of Gorai River in Railway Bridge Point


    Distribution of Monthly Total Flow in a Year
    250000 200000
    Discharge

    Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow During Monsoon


    1965 1994

    180000 160000 140000 120000


    Discharge

    150000 100000 50000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
    Month

    100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980
    Year

    1983

    1986

    1989

    1992

    1995

    Annual Mean of Monthly Flow


    80000 70000 60000

    Seasonal Mean of Monthly Flow during Dry Season


    25000 20000

    Discharge

    Discharge

    50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980 Year 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

    15000 10000 5000 0 1964 1967 1970 1974 1977 1980 Year 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

    The impact of ice melting in Glaceirs is not identifiable in Ganges river discharges till 1996

    3. Salinity Intrusion

    Ganges Dependent Area

    Major Salinity Intrusion in the Southwest Region

    Mechanics of Salinity Intrusion

    Monsoon

    Dry Season
    Salinity in the river water, ground water and in the soil has increased significantly Reduction of fresh water flow from Gorai River, Higher Back water effect due to SLR, Higher storm surges

    South West Region

    Salinity in southwest region

    Gorai Rl. Bg.

    Khulna

    12 10 Salinity (ppt) 8 6
    Gorai RB Discharge
    8000
    Bayof Bengal

    12 10 8

    4 2
    Salinity-Khulna

    6000

    4000

    4
    2 0

    1972

    85 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 200086 87 88 89
    0

    Discharge(m3/s)

    Salinity (ppt)

    91 92 93

    94 Increase in Salinity with time series in the South West


    Apr 1994 Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr May 1995

    95 9 4 Region

    4. Climate Change impact on Rainfall in Khulna

    Source: LGED-ADV, 2010 report, using IPCC ECHAM5-MPI-OM model (Jungclaus, 2006).
    Climate change effect show an increase of extreme rainfall events by 2050 Not a large difference in the frequency of extreme rainfall events in 2003-2008 and 2020-2040 The chances of extreme rainfall events are considerably higher during the 2041-2060 period.

    Flow (cumec)

    5. Impact of Climate Change on Dependable River flow Estimated by analyzing Flow-duration curve at 6 locations around Khulna City (Source: LGED-ADB, 2010).

    Impact of Climate Change on Dependable Flow


    90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Mollahat
    Locations

    84

    80

    77 base 2030 2050 48 44 45

    Fultala

    Impact of Climate Change on Salinity


    18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15.9

    Salinity (ppt)

    Decrease in dependable river flows Increase Salinity Increase the duration of river salinity
    2.5

    base 2030 2050 13.9

    14.8

    5.4 3.2 3.6

    Mollahat
    Locations

    Fultala

    Increase of Maximum Salinity Level


    Increase of Salinity (ppt)

    2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Haridashpur Mollahat Fultala Fultala

    2030

    2050

    Daulatpur

    Labanchura

    6. Climate Change effect on Drainage Congestion in KCC (Source: WASA)

    Present Scenario

    2050 Scenario

    Currently 22% of Khulna City is experiences harmful flooding for a 10 year return period event. These area increases to 34% for 2030 and to 54% for 2050 scenario if the drainage system remains the same.

    Climate Change impact on Occurrence Cyclone


    12 Number of occurance 10 Affected people in million 8 6 4 2 0 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 Year of Cyclone

    Frequency of major cyclone and affected people (Source: BBS, 2007)

    Coastal Area in Bangladesh

    Among 19 coastal districts, 12 are directly exposed to the sea.

    Since 1970, the no. of major cyclones striking Bangladesh is 26


    Nos. of occurrences (and the no. of affected people) increased significantly since 1990

    7 .Impacts on Sundarban (beautiful forest)


    worlds largest contiguous mangrove ecosystem The flora contains at least 69 species A total of 425 species of wildlife, including 42 species of mammals 300 species of birds 35 reptiles, and 8 amphibian species (Rashid and Scott 1989). Sundarban were declared world heritage sites by UNESCO.

    Tourist Attraction

    Tourist Attraction

    Tourist Attraction

    Sundarban during low tide

    Roofing material

    Timber

    Fishing

    Dry Fish

    Sundarban is crying !!
    Top dying disease of SUNDARI tree Global warming and Sea-level rise

    Climate Change Impact on Sundarban


    R idg es o r lev ees

    Destroy
    Back-swamps or basins sundari

    M udf lats (slo pe)

    keora/baen

    goran Gewa

    M ain r iv er channel

    hoda golpata nol khagra


    hargoza

    High-tide water level

    Low-tide water level

    Present

    Future

    Soil salinity is increasing and Salinity zone is shifting Sundari trees are destroyed and replaced by Keora and Gewa
    Sunderban forest under different salinity zone (ppt); present situation

    Loss of Ecosystem Food chain breaks down

    Conclusion

    SLR will continue to affect Coastal Bangladesh through permanent inundation, frequent damaging floods and cyclones, drainage congestion in city and polder area, storm surge inundation and increased salinity intrusion. As a result, wide range of impacts on socio-economic and natural systems is anticipated Global initiative to reduce carbon emission, as well as strategies and initiatives at the community and national level should be taken.

    Thanks for Your Time and Attention

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