Master of Business Administration in Information System MBA- Semester IV MI0031- Technology Management 2 Credits

Assignment Set- 2 (30 Marks)

Q.1. What is Technology Forecasting? Classify the Technology Forecasting Approaches in brief? Discuss in detail the Product Development Process Phase in Technology Management? The seeking or anticipation of technological innovation has been called technology forecasting (TF). Over the years, fairly tried and tested techniques have been developed for TF. However, the forecaster has to select the appropriate methodology or a combination of methodologies to make his forecast understandable and credible. This depends upon the nature of technology forecast and availability of reliable data. The forecast, if appropriately and judiciously made, could serve as a valuable tool for decision making for applying mid-course correction in a plan, or for launching new activities or businesses with a view to achieve the desired objectives. It may be emphasized that a forecast never forces a decision. The decision maker has all the freedom at his disposal to act judiciously and he is not bound by the outcome of a forecast. In fact, the forecast makes him aware of alternatives which he might not have otherwise discovered and thereby it increases his freedom to act the way he thinks best and helps him to improve the quality of his decision. Forecasting for technology is no different in this respect. In this context the term 'technology' should be understood in a broad perspective. It includes not only specifically "mechanical / physical hardware", but also encompasses associated "software" such as procedures and methods for organizing human activity, and means for manipulating or engineering human behavior. Thus, technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, products, processes, procedures or techniques. There are two important points implied in this statement, viz.: a) A technological forecast deals with certain characteristics such as levels of technical performance (e.g., technical specifications including energy efficiency, emission levels, speed, power, safety, temperature, etc.), rate of technological advances (introduction of paperless office, picture phone, new materials, costs, etc.). b) Technological forecasting also deals with useful machines, procedures, or techniques. In particular, this is intended to exclude from the domain of technological forecasting those items intended for pleasure or amusement since they depend more on personal fads, foibles or tastes rather than on technological capability. Anticipating technological change is an important management function. One must do so to plan new products and new businesses. One must also avoid being technologically blind-sided by competitors with technologically superior products. Yet this is not easy to do because often technological progress cannot be anticipated. However, it can also be planned. Generally, one may use the following stages to describe the progress of an innovation throughout its life from beginning till end: a) Basic scientific findings/discovery of a principle b) Laboratory or bench level feasibility c) Operating prototype/pilot plant d) Commercial introduction or operational use e) Widespread adoption

f) Diffusion to other areas g) Social and economic impact Each of these stages has a specific role to play and contribute to the innovation of a technology. Briefly, they are described as under: a) Basic scientific findings / discovery: This establishes the minimum knowledge base on the basis of sound scientific principles from which a solution to a specific problem could be found. b) Laboratory or bench level feasibility: At this stage, depending on the identified problem, a laboratory workable model could be fabricated without violating any natural or physical laws. This would generally be able to work in the desired way only in the laboratory environment, under controlled conditions and supervision of trained scientists, technologists or technicians. c) Operating prototype/pilot plant: On reaching this stage, it would be possible to obtain design/engineering parameters to construct a device/system which would be capable of working in an operational environment using commercially available inputs. d) Commercial introduction or operational use: This stage represents not only technical and design adequacy, but also economic feasibility. Generally, the first production model is the benchmark of completion of this stage. e) Widespread adoption: At this stage having demonstrated the technical and/or economic and/or environmental superiority, the technology is now poised to supersede and replace the prior devices, Procedures etc. on a wide scale. f) Diffusion to other areas: At this stage, the new technology not only replaces the old one, but is also adopted to perform such functions as were not being performed by the earlier devices and techniques. g) Social and economic impact: At this stage, the innovation will affect the behavior of the society and its use may reach a point where its impact will be felt on the economy. Q.2. Describe in detail the Technology Life Cycle? What is the influence of IT revolution on technological changes? Explain what is meant by Generation & Development of Technologies? What is Technology Strategy and what is its importance at the corporate level? Technology Life Cycle The life span of various technologies can be conveniently identified as consisting of four distinct stages, all of which taken together form the Technology Life Cycle. The stages of technology life cycle are innovation, syndication, diffusion, and substitution. Innovation stage: This stage represents the birth of a new product, material or process resulting from R&D activities. In R&D laboratories, new ideas are generated by need pull and knowledge push factors. Depending upon the resource allocation and also the change element, the time taken in the innovation stage as well as in the subsequent stages varies widely. You will recall we had discussed the terms innovation and invention in the previous Unit. Syndication stage: This stage represents the demonstration (pilot production) and commercialization of a new technology (product, material or process) with potential for immediate utilization. Many innovations are shelved in R&D laboratories. Only a very small percentage of these are

commercialized. Commercialization of research outcomes depends on technical as well as nontechnical (mostly economic) factors. Diffusion stage: This represents the market penetration of a new technology through acceptance of the innovation by potential users of the technology. But supply and demand side factors jointly influence the rate of diffusion. Substitution stage: This last stage represents the decline in the use and eventual extension of a technology due to replacement by another technology. Many technical and non-technical factors influence the rate of substitution. The time taken in the substitution stage depends on the market dynamics. Technology generation and development is often synonymous with the term "Research and Development (R&D)". However, technology generation involves R&D efforts while technology development involves further stages of translating R&D efforts into marketable products, processes and services. Basically, one can consider the R&D process as having four distinct stages as shown in. Recognition of a need for innovation is one of the motivations for R&D. "Research" on existing knowledge for satisfying identified need helps in idea generation this is the "need push". The other primary motivation for R&D is to find potential applications for advances in knowledge. Research" on is converted into a marketable product or service (a hardware or software intensive technology). Existing activity for introducing new knowledge also helps in idea generation - this is the "technology-push". "Development" includes engineering (creation, design and production) and marketing (first use and diffusion) of the generated idea. Through the entire process it is ideas and knowledge which are being pursued, and the process is not complete until the new idea Process of Technology Generation Technology is generated in R&D organizations. An illustration of the various inputs required for generation of technologies is given in Figure 5.2. Goals, surroundings, criteria and resource allocation are some of the inputs to R&D, the output of which is technology. The input resources into R&D organizations are the traditional inputs such as money, materials, facilities, energy, labour and management, and the intelligence-based inputs such as science, knowledge, skills, information and existing technologies. The effectiveness of any R&D is determined in terms of the 'usefulness' of the technologies it produces with respect to the overall objectives of the corporation. Besides the various factors discussed in earlier paras, the R&D or technology generation involves many other aspects such as, monitoring and evaluation of R&D projects, funding of R&D, training and development 0! resource personnel, interactions at all levels, management policies and support, the availability of support structures and incentives at government level, timely collection and interpretation of technical and other information, etc. Some of these aspects have been discussed in detail elsewhere in this course. The quality of resource leadership and commitment of the top management for research is extremely important. In Indian industry or corporate sector, it is generally observed that the research personnel occupy secondary place to finance, marketing and production personnel, and are not given due importance in decision-making at corporate level. Sometimes, inefficient personnel from other departments are posted or transferred to R&D department, thereby indicating a complete neglect of R&D concept. Such management attitudes need to be changed in the overall interest of the company. Corporate Research and Product Lifetimes R&D projects in corporate research create and extend the lifetimes of corporate products, avoiding technological obsolescence of businesses. Extending product lifetimes can be done by:

1) Improving the production processes to lower production costs and increase quality; 2) Upgrading and improving current product models; 3) Creating next generation product models. The function of corporate research is to create and extend the lifetimes of the company's products. This is an essential function because all products have finite lifetimes (sometimes as short as one year and sometimes as long as several years). In times of new and rapidly changing technologies, lifetime$ tend to be short. A mature technology product may have a very long lifetime if no clearly superior technology has emerged. But even in a long-lived product, periodic reformulations, variation in product lines, and changes in packaging provide some change in the product. To maintain a long-lived product, quality must be maintained on par with competing products, if not more, and cost reduction in production must be ahead of competitors. Product lifetimes are dependent on two factors: technological obsolescence and product substitution.