The Fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5)

Environment for the future we want
First published by the United Nations Environment Programme in 2012

Copyright 2012, United Nations Environment Programme
ISBN: 978-92-807-3177-4
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Environment for the future we want
Acknowledgements
This fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5) assessment
report is a product of the strong dedication and extraordinary
investment of numerous individuals, whose knowledge,
expertise and insight helped shape this important body of
work. UNEP acknowledges the contributions made by many
governments, individuals and institutions to the preparation and
publication of this report. A full list of names of individuals and
institutions involved in the assessment process is included from
pages 498504. Special thanks are extended to:
Amir El-Sammak, Tom P. Evans, C. Max Finlayson,

Erica Brown Gaddis, Nesreen Ghaddar, Keisha Garcia,
Paul Roger Glennie, Yi Huang, Carol A. Hunsberger, Maria Ivanova,
Jill Jger, Peter N. King, Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna, Bernice Lee,
Marc A. Levy, Lailai Li, Clever Mafuta, Ruben Mnatsakanian,
Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere, Alexandra C. Morel,
Begum Ozkaynak, Neeyati Patel, Renat Perelet, Laszlo Pinter,
Pierre Portas, Walter Rast, Asha Singh, Detlef P. van Vuuren,
Roy Victor Watkinson and Joanna Noelia Kamiche Zegarra.
High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel
Scientific Peer-Reviewers (Coordinated by

the Earth System Science Partnership)
Rajender Ahlawat, Hussein A. Al-Gunied, Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani,

Wahid Al-Shuely, Burcu Bursali, Mantang Cai, Sandra De Carlo,
Jorge Laguna Celis, Guilherme da Costa, Raouf Dabbas,
Martijin Dadema, Idunn Eidheim, Prudence Galega, Nilkanth Ghosh,
Rosario Gomez, Xia Guang, Han Huiskamp, Jos Lubbers,
John Michael Matuszak, Samira Nateche, Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc,
Van Tai Nguyen, Jose Rafael Almonte Perdomo,
Majid Shafie-Pour-Motlagh, Jiang Wei, Albert Williams and
Daniel Ziegerer.
Science and Policy Advisory Board

Joseph Alcamo, Asma Ali Abahussain, Pinhas Alpert,
Torkil Jonch Clausen, Ahmed Djoghlaf, Susanne Droege,
Kejun Jiang, Nicholas King, Filipo Lansigan, Anne Larigauderie,
Jacqueline McGlade, Luisa T. Molina, Toral Patel-Weynand,
Nicolas Perritaz, Carlos A. Quesada, Emilio Lbre La Rovere,
Chirapol Sintunawa, Sandra Torrusio, George Varughese and
Robert Watson.
Data and Indicators Working Group

Asma Ali Abahussain, Ezgi Akpinar-Ferrand, Sandra de Carlo,
Barbara Clark, Volodymyr Demkine, Alexander Gorobets,
Eszter Horvath, Koffi Kouadio, Murari Lal, Samwiri Musisi-Nkambwe,
Ambinistoa Lucie Noasilalaonomenjanahary, Toral Patel-Weynand,
Muhammad Munir Sheikh, Ashbindu Singh, Anil Kumar Thanappan,
Susan Tumwebaze, Hctor Tuy and Jaap van Woerden.
Coordinating Lead Authors

May Antoniette Ajero, Dolors Armenteras, Jane Barr,
Ricardo Barra, Ivar Baste, James Dobrowolski, Nicolai Dronin,
vi
Acknowledgements
Keigo Akimoto, Mahmoud Ali, Erik Ansink, Masroor Ellahi Babar,

David Barkin, Janos Bogardi, Philippe Bourdeau, Josep Canadell,
Graciela Ana Canziani, Andrea Birgit Chavez Michaelesen,
Kevin Cheung, Antonio Cruzado, Shobhakar Dhakal, Serigne Faye,
Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Emma Archer van Garderen,
Amadou Thierno Gaye, Mark O. Gessner, Evgeny Gordov,
Dagmar Haase, Itsuki Handoh, Nick Harvey, Lars Hein,
Gerhard J. Herndl, Shu-Li Huang, Falk Huettmann, Ada Ignaciuk,
Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Louise Jackson, Sharad Jain, Ian Jenkinson,
Rainer Krug, Nelson Lourenco, Angela M. Maharaj, Miyuki Nagashima,
Daiju Narita, Isabelle Niang, Patrick Nunn, Jay OKeeffe,
Jean-Pierre Ometto, Ursula Oswald Spring, Claudia Pahl-Wostl,
Nirmalie Pallewatta, Henrique M. Pereira, Erika Pires Ramos,
Germn Poveda, Francesc Prenafeta, Seema Purushothaman,
Dork Sahagian, Galia Selaya, Mika Sillanpaa, Maria Siwek, Erika Techera,
Holm Tiessen, Klement Tockner, Aysun Uyar, Tracy Van Holt,
Stefano Vignudelli, Hassan Virji, Angela Wagener and Hong Yang.
Outreach Group
Adel Farid Abdel-Kader, Robert Barnes, Matthew Billot,
Peter Browne, Bryan Coll, Richard Crompton, Ivica Cvetanovski,
Salif Diop, Marie Daher, Silvia Giada, Peter Gilruth,
Elisabeth Guilbaud-Cox, Suzanne Howard, Alexander Juras,
Satwant Kaur, Fatoumata Keita-Ouane, Fanina Kodre-Alexander,
Alejandro Laguna, Thor-Jrgen Greve Lberg, Graciela Metternicht,
Amos Muema, Nicole Lettington, Michael Logan, Angele Luh,
Kelvin Memia, Waiganjo Njoroge, Nick Nuttall, Neeyati Patel,
Audrey Ringler, Stuart Roberts, Andrea Salinas, Ashbindu Singh,
Janet Fernandez Skaalvik, Anna Stabrawa, Mia Turner,
Frank Turyatunga, Isabelle Valentiny, Ronald Witt, Jinhua Zhang,
Laetitia Zobel and Shereen Zorba.
GEO-5 Funding
The Governments of Canada, Norway, Republic of Korea, the
Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the Gwangju Metropolitan
City, Republic of Korea, together with the UNEP Environment Fund,
provided the necessary funding for the production of GEO-5 and

subsequent outreach activities. Contributions were also provided
by GRID-Arendal and the Development Bank of Latin America.
Global Environment Outlook 5

GEO-5 Core Team: Matthew Billot (Head of GEO Unit), Ludgarde Coppens, Volodymyr Demkine, Salif Diop, Peter Gilruth,
Jason Jabbour, Josephine Nyokabi Mwangi, Fatoumata Keita-Ouane, Brigitte Ohanga, Nalini Sharma
Regional Coordinating Team: Adel Farid Abdel-Kader, Fouad Abousamra, Silvia Giada, Graciela Metternicht, Charles Sebukeera,
Ashbindu Singh, Anna Stabrawa, Frank Turyatunga, Jaap van Woerden, Ronald Witt, Jinhua Zhang
Production Coordination: Jason Jabbour
Production Support: Sarah Abdelrahim, Sylvia Adams, Joana Akrofi, Joseph Alcamo, Chris Ambala, Liana Archaia-Atanasova,
Suzanne Bech, Charles Davies, Tessa Goverse, Loise Kinuthia, Fanina Kodre, Sunday Leonard, Kelvin Memia, Monika G. MacDevette,
Patrick Mmayi, Edwin Mwanyika, Trang Nguyen, Thierry De Oliveira, Audrey Ringler, Tunnie Srisakulchairak, Erick Litswa,
Mick Wilson, Shereen Zorba
UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC): Mari Bieri, Satu Glaser, Maxwell Gomera, Abisha Mapendembe,
Alison M. Rosser, Jrn Scharlemann, Matt J. Walpole
Global Resources Information Database Centre, Norway (GRID-Arendal): Bjrn Alfthan, John Crump, Lawrence Hislop,
Tiina Kurvits, Thor-Jrgen Greve Lberg, Clever Mafuta, Riccardo Pravettoni, Peter Prokosch, Petter Sevaldsen, Janet Fernandez Skaalvik
GEO-5 E-peer-review System: Herb Caudill, Shane Kunkle
Data Support: Andrea de Bono, Dominique del Pietro, Stefan Schwarzer, Jaap van Woerden
Maps and Graphics: Riccardo Pravettoni (GRID-Arendal), UNEP/GRID-Geneva, Mattias Turini, Nieves Lpez Izquierdo, Audrey Ringler
Editorial Team: Bart Ullstein, Helen de Mattos, Christine Hawkins, Catherine P. McMullen, Jason Jabbour, Jrn Scharlemann
Design and Layout: GRID-Arendal, Ali Cherri
Editorial and Outreach Coordination: Neeyati Patel
Acknowledgements
vii
Contents
Acknowledgements
Foreword
Preface
Introduction
Part 1: State and Trends of the Environment
viii
vi
xvi
xvii
xviii
Drivers
Atmosphere
Land
Water
Biodiversity
Chemicals and Waste
An Earth System Perspective
Review of Data Needs
3
31
65
97
133
167
193
215
Part 2: Policy Options
231
Africa
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
Latin America and the Caribbean
North America
West Asia
Regional Summary
233
259
289
317
349
373
399
Part 3: Global Responses
417
Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation

Global Responses
419
457
The GEO-5 Process

Acronyms and Abbreviations
Contributors
Glossary
Index
489
493
498
505
520
Contents
Figures
Chapter 1: Drivers
The demographic transition........................................................7
Urban population, 19502050...................................................8
Change in population density, 19902005.................................9
Change in economic output, 19902005..................................10
A simple interpretation of the environmental Kuznets curve.........12
Change in meat supply by region, 19602007..........................13
Growth in population, GDP, trade and CO2 emissions,
19902008..........................................................................19
The transfer of CO2 emissions between developed and
developing countries, 19902010........................................21
The great acceleration after the Second World War....................22
Chapter 2: Atmosphere
Impacts of and links between selected substances emitted
to the atmosphere................................................................33
Trends in temperature change and atmospheric CO2
concentrations, 18502010..................................................37
Temperature change over the 20th century................................37
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent in winter and autumn,
19792010..........................................................................38
Figure 2.5 Trends in African and South and West Asian
rainfall, May-September, 1960-1998.....................................38
Figure 2.6 Trends in fossil fuel emissions, calculated and
IPCC scenarios, 19902015..................................................39
Figure 2.7 The emissions gap....................................................40
Figure 2.8 Regional trends in sulphur dioxide emissions,
18502050..........................................................................42
Areas at risk and timeframe for acidification damage in Asia........43
Regional trends in emissions of nitrogen oxides and
ammonia, 18502050 .........................................................45
Trends in nitrogen deposition to protected areas, 20002030......46
National ambient air quality standards and WHO guidelines
for PM10..............................................................................48
Urban PM10 trends in selected regions and cities, 19932009 .....48
Sources of ozone over polluted regions of the northern
hemisphere, 1850 and 2000.................................................49
Regional changes in concentrations of surface ozone,
19602000..........................................................................50
Projected changes in surface ozone concentrations over
polluted regions of the northern hemisphere, 20002050.....51
Consumption of ozone-depleting substances, 19862009........52
Reduction of ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere,
19942009..........................................................................52
Antarctic ozone hole extent, 19802010..................................52
The World Avoided modelled UV index, 1975, 2020 and 2065......53
Leaded petrol phase-out, 2002 and 2011.................................55
Petrol and blood lead levels in Sweden following the
phase-out of lead in petrol, 19762004................................56
Blood lead levels in the United States following the
phase-out of lead in petrol, 19762008................................56
Projected effects of measures to reduce CO2, methane and black
carbon emissions in relation to a reference scenario..............59
Atmospheric brown cloud over part of South Asia......................60
Chapter 3: Land
Area in use for cropland and pasture in 2009, by region,
and global change between 1960 and 2010..........................68
Area harvested in 2010 and the change between 2001
and 2010, selected crops......................................................70
Average food supply in 2007 and the change between
1998 and 2007, by region.....................................................71
Change in forest area by region, 19902010.............................72
Global extent of drylands and human-induced dryland
degradation..........................................................................74
UNCCD operational objectives and achievements, 2010............75
Changes in Arctic vegetation, 19822005.................................77
Urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta, China, 19902009......78
Distribution of the urban population of developing countries,
by city size ...........................................................................78
Food security and environmental goals for agriculture by 2050......80
Projected changes in sub-Saharan African crop yields due
to climate change, 2050.......................................................81
Change in global population and in meat, fish and
seafood supplies, 19922007..............................................82
Clear-cut deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon,
19882011.......................................................................83
Area under cultivation for selected crops in humid tropical
countries, 19602010..........................................................84
Chapter 4: Water
Annual average water scarcity in major river basins,
19962005........................................................................102
Current and projected water withdrawals by sector,
20002050........................................................................103
Global annual groundwater depletion, 2000...........................104
Annual global and regional water footprint, 19962005..........105
Global irrigation efficiencies, 2000.........................................106
Virtual water imports, exports and flows around the world,
19962005........................................................................106
People affected by and damages associated with floods
and droughts, 19802010..................................................107
Global density of medium to large dams.................................108
Estimated risk of arsenic in drinking water, based on
hydrogeological conditions.................................................109
Faecal coliform concentrations in rivers near major cities
an indicator of waterborne pathogens, 19902011 .................110
Population without access to improved sanitation
compared to MDG target, 19902015.................................111
World hypoxic and eutrophic coastal areas, 2010....................112
Trends in organochlorine contamination in selected
deep-sea fish species, 19952005.....................................113
Threats to water security with and without infrastructure
investment, 2000 ..............................................................115
Population without access to improved drinking water,
19902015.......................................................................... 116
Cholera cases by region, 19892009......................................117
CO2 concentrations and ocean acidification in the
North Pacific, 19602010...................................................120
Contents
ix
Thermal power and hydropower plant locations and water

stress levels in five countries of South and South East Asia.......121
Progress in the development and implementation of
integrated water management plans....................................122
Map of 18 regional seas and 64 large marine
ecosystems, 2011..............................................................124
International river basins, 2000..............................................125
Freshwater conflict by type of issue, 19481999 and
20002008........................................................................126
Chapter 5: Biodiversity
Major threats to vertebrates listed as critically endangered,
endangered or vulnerable on the IUCN Red List....................139
Biodiversity indicator trends ..................................................141
Numbers of vertebrates globally threatened by
overexploitation, 2010........................................................142
Trends in the state of global fishery stocks, 19502006..........142
The ecological footprint, 19612007......................................144
Living Planet Index, 19702007.............................................145
Red List Indices of species survival for all species of birds,
mammals, amphibians and corals, 19802010 ..................145
Relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem services
and human well-being........................................................146
Red List Indices of species survival for birds and mammals
used for food and medicine, 19882008............................147
Distribution and conservation status of medicinal plant
species assessed for the IUCN Red List, by region, 2009.......... 147
Commitments to manage alien invasive species,
19702010........................................................................151
Extent of nationally designated protected areas,
19902010 .......................................................................152
Proportion of each terrestrial ecoregion covered by
protected areas, 2011.........................................................153
Language endangerment as a share of all languages, 2010.........155
The number and type of access and benefit-sharing
measures, 2011.................................................................156
Scenarios of species change ..................................................158
Chapter 6: Chemicals and Waste
Transmission of national reports by Parties to the Basel
Convention, 19992009.....................................................173
Chemical sales by country, 2009............................................174
Life-cycle analysis of chemicals .............................................176
PCBs in beached plastics........................................................177
DDT levels in humans, 19602008.........................................179
Trends in two PCBs from air monitoring data at two sites
in the northern hemisphere, 19952005.............................179
Chapter 7: An Earth System Perspective
Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations...........................195
Examples of regime shifts resulting from different drivers
and feedbacks....................................................................198
Observed change in annual mean surface air temperature,
19602009........................................................................199
Contents
Recent flood events in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region..........202

Forest fires in Canada, 1920-1999..........................................205
World shale gas basins identified by the US Energy
Information Agency.............................................................205
The ecological footprint and biocapacity of regions, 2002..........206
Global material extraction, 19002005..................................207
Conceptual description of planetary boundaries where
the boundary is set to avoid the crossing of a critical
threshold in an Earth System process..................................208
Transition phases...................................................................209
Chapter 8: Review of Data Needs
Example of a country snapshot on environment statistics,
from Uganda.......................................................................226
National environment statistics programmes and thematic
coverage, 2007...................................................................228
Chapter 9: Africa
Exposure and vulnerability to floods in sub-Saharan Africa,
19802010........................................................................235
Food insecurity in selected Southern African cities,
20082009........................................................................235
Selected strategies from the policy options for strengthening
key components of capacity................................................254
Chapter 10: Asia and the Pacific
Selected climate change policies............................................266
Selected biodiversity policies.................................................269
Selected freshwater policies...................................................272
Selected chemical and waste policies.....................................276
Selected governance policies.................................................278
Chapter 11: Europe
Sectoral trends and projections for
EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions, 19902020....................295
EU Emissions Trading System cap, 20052050.......................296
Electricity capacity in the EU-27 from biomass, on-shore
wind and photovoltaic sources, 20052010........................297
Passenger cars and light-duty trucks meeting
Euro standards...................................................................299
Euro-based standards and their adoption in Asia,
19952018........................................................................300
European sulphur dioxide emission reductions,
19802004........................................................................301
Complex links between objectives and actors involved
in managing the Tisza Basin................................................303
Agricultural use of nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P) and
potassium (K) in Denmark, 19602007...............................304
Varying water tariff structures in selected European
countries...............................................................................305
Moving up the waste hierarchy...............................................306
A life-cycle approach to resource efficiency.............................306
Trends in municipal solid waste treatment in the EU,
19952008...........................................................................307
Sites designated under the Habitats Directive and

the Birds Directive, 19952009..........................................309
Conservation status of EU habitats and species, 2008.............310
European forest area and status, by region, 2010....................311
Chapter 12: Latin America and the Caribbean
The core constituents of environmental governance................320
A governance framework for large marine ecosystems.............323
Population with access to improved sources of drinking water......326
Population with access to improved sanitation........................327
Estimated population density in Latin America and the
Caribbean, 2010 ................................................................328
Common ground for sustainability..........................................339
Chapter 13: North America
The Great Lakes Basin............................................................363
Proposed renewable energy zones, potential transmission
expansion and the growth of wind power in Texas................368
Chapter 14: West Asia
Priorities for action in West Asia.............................................376
Domestic water supply and sanitation in West Asia,
19902015........................................................................377
Primary energy consumption in West Asia, 20042008...........385
Reclaimed land in Bahrain, 19632008..................................392
Chapter 16: Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation
Conventional world and sustainable world scenarios.............422
Layers of transformation.........................................................423
Twin challenge.......................................................................424
Population and income projections in the scenario

literature, 20002050 .......................................................427
Emissions and temperature scenarios.....................................429
Scenarios for sulphur emissions ............................................429
An example of primary energy use and annual change
in CO2 emissions in sustainable world scenarios..................431
Food consumption and child undernourishment under
different scenarios..............................................................433
Trends in land use, 19702050..............................................433
Water withdrawals under different scenarios, 20002050.........436
Water withdrawals under conventional world and
sustainable world scenarios, 20052050............................437
Water stress under current conditions and for 2050 under
conventional and sustainable world scenarios ....................438
Changes in the extent of forest up to 2050 in different
global scenarios, and estimated rates of species loss .........439
Options for reducing biodiversity loss by 2050........................440
Marine catches with and without a reduction in fishing
effort, by region, 19502050..............................................441
Chapter 17: Global Responses
Growth in ratification of environmental treaties,
19712011........................................................................464
The Environment Fund, 19732009........................................466
GEF portfolio and co-financing allocations by focal area,
19912010........................................................................468
OECD countries aid commitments to UNCCD, CBD and
UNFCCC, 19982009 .........................................................469
Scenarios projecting the impacts of environmental risks
on human development, 19802050..................................470
Contents
xi
Tables
Chapter 1: Drivers
Demographic data, 2011............................................................6
International migration, 19502100...........................................8
Atmospheric issues affecting achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals...........................................34
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related
to atmospheric issues..........................................................35
Concentrations of greenhouse gases, 2005, 2009 and 2010.......38
Global burden of disease due to particulate air pollution...........47
Progress towards goals.............................................................61
Chapter 3: Land
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related
to land................................................................................73
Plantation area in 2010 and the increase between 2000
and 2010, by region ............................................................73
Estimates of global wetland area..............................................76
Timber and fibre consumption, 2002 and 2008.........................85
Progress towards goals.............................................................89
Chapter 4: Water
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes
related to water.................................................................101
Observed and projected impacts of climate change on
key hydrological variables..................................................118
Progress towards goals...........................................................127
Selected internationally agreed goals and themes
related to biodiversity........................................................138
Progress towards goals...........................................................159
Selected internationally agreed goals related to
chemicals and waste.........................................................172
Quantities of obsolete pesticides...........................................181
Global inventory of radioactive waste, 2004............................182
Progress towards goals ..........................................................187
Environmental Data Explorer: data providers...........................219
Selected regional initiatives and priorities for
environmental information.................................................225
Chapter 9: Africa
Regionally selected policy goals.............................................236
xii
Contents
Mutually reinforcing outcomes through effective

implementation of selected policy options.........................238
Estimated numbers of low-income households likely
to benefit from payment for ecosystem services in
developing countries within the next two decades..............243
Selected regional approaches.................................................244
Policies selected for analysis..................................................265
Transferability of priority policies in Asia and the Pacific............282
Chapter 11: Europe
Country groupings used in various environment-related
reporting and policy initiatives in Europe............................292
Selected themes, goals and policy options and examples
of success.........................................................................294
Environmental governance case studies..................................321
Water case studies.................................................................324
Biodiversity case studies........................................................330
Land case studies in Latin America and the Caribbean............335
Climate change case studies...................................................338
Links and co-benefits across selected policies........................342
Priority themes and related global goals.................................351
Energy savings and peak-power reductions in Kuwait..............388
Renewable energy targets for selected countries.....................390
Chapter 15: Regional Summary
Priority themes by region........................................................401
Goals and targets on the road to 2050....................................426
Selected indicators for the conventional and sustainable
world scenarios.................................................................434
Overview of the gap between the conventional and sustainable
world scenarios and important measures to close the gap.......442
Threshold 21 scenario results for key indicators......................443
Core elements of the UN system-wide environmental
response regime................................................................462
Financial resources available to selected global
multilateral environmental agreements, 2010....................467
Boxes
Chapter 1: Drivers
Facilitating the demographic transition through
education................................................................................... 7
Expressing prosperity beyond GDP..........................................11
Greenhouse gas emissions and international trade...................21
Information and communication technologies:
a vicious cycle?...................................................................24
Conclusions of driver-centred thinking......................................26
Climate change........................................................................36
Sulphur pollution.....................................................................41
Atmospheric nitrogen pollution................................................43
Particulate matter....................................................................46
Tropospheric ozone..................................................................49
Stratospheric ozone.................................................................51
Lead in petrol...........................................................................54
Complementary actions to limit near-term climate change
and improve air quality........................................................59
Atmospheric brown clouds.......................................................60
Chapter 3: Land
Eradicating hunger...................................................................68
Forests.....................................................................................71
Restoring wetlands along the Mississippi..................................79
The Mau Forests complex, Kenya..............................................79
Brazils forest policy and soy moratorium..................................83
Palm oil expansion and rainforest destruction in Indonesia.........84
Sustainable dryland management............................................88
Chapter 4: Water
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation Paragraph 26c..............100
Water scarcity........................................................................102
Water demand.......................................................................103
Water-use efficiency...............................................................105
Extreme events......................................................................107
Dams and river fragmentation................................................108
Groundwater contamination...................................................109
Pathogenic contamination......................................................110
Nutrient pollution and eutrophication.....................................111
Marine litter...........................................................................112
Toxic chemicals......................................................................113
Ballast water and invasive species..........................................114
Water security........................................................................114
Access to improved water.......................................................115
Water-related diseases...........................................................116
Diarrhoea in children in Africa.................................................117
Climate change impacts on human security.............................118
Sea level rise.........................................................................119
Ocean acidification................................................................119
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill...............................................121
The impacts of drought on hydropower production..................122
Integrated water management................................................122
Competition and conflict .......................................................125
Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 20112020 and the Aichi
Biodiversity Targets ...........................................................136
Biodiversity vision: a world in harmony with nature.................139
Global Biodiversity Outlook....................................................140
The ecological footprint: an indicator of the pressures
on biodiversity..................................................................144
Genetic modification .............................................................150
Examples of community management.....................................154
Multilateral environmental agreements and the sound
management of chemicals.................................................171
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI) (WSSD 2002)
Paragraph 23.....................................................................173
Waste in the OECD .................................................................175
Waste generated on board ship..............................................178
Human health, the environment and persistent
organic pollutants .............................................................178
Funding: an ongoing challenge ..............................................186
Chapter 7: An Earth System Perspective
Examples of Earth System interactions influenced by
human activities................................................................196
Regime shifts ........................................................................198
Antarctic biodiversity.............................................................200
The ecological footprint .........................................................206
Innovative response to a crisis................................................210
The transition to improved governance of the
Great Barrier Reef..............................................................210
The three principal data gaps on drivers of global
environmental change.......................................................217
Glacier monitoring in the Himalayas........................................222
Chapter 9: Africa
The Sangha Tri-National Landscape........................................239
Collaborative water management: Organization for the
Development of the Senegal River Basin.............................239
A network of managers in the Mediterranean...........................240
Successful pollution management in the Western
Indian Ocean.....................................................................242
The Ambatovy Business and Biodiversity Offsets
Programme (BBOP), Madagascar .......................................242
Mozambique: A pilot project in the voluntary carbon market......243
Action and commitment at regional and national levels...........245
Sustainable land management in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia.......245
The land rights challenge in Mozambique...............................246
Recognizing a human right to water can promote
fairer access .....................................................................247
Butterfly farming in Arabuko Forest Reserve............................248
Mapping landscapes in souther Cameroon.............................249
Rainwater harvesting in Ethiopia............................................249
Contents
xiii
Enhancing traditional water harvesting practices in

Burkina Faso.....................................................................250
Mangrove restoration in Mauritius..........................................251
Social learning and knowledge in community-based
adaptation strategies.........................................................252
Managing acid mine drainage in the Olifants catchment............252
Selected climate change goal: United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change Article 3 Paragraphs 13........262
Selected biodiversity goal: Convention on Biological
Diversity Article 1...............................................................263
Selected freshwater goal: Johannesburg Plan of
Implementation Paragraph 26c..........................................263
Selected goal for chemicals and waste: Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation Paragraphs 22 and 23...........................264
Selected governance goal: Johannesburg Declaration
on Sustainable Development Paragraph 5..........................264
Removing fossil fuel subsidies in Asia and the Pacific.............267
Adaptation policies in the Maldives .......................................268
Pacific islands: locally managed marine areas ........................269
Promoting sustainable use of biodiversity: payment for
ecosystem services in China and Viet Nam.........................271
Uzbekistan: improving the capacity of existing reservoirs
in Central Asia...................................................................273
The Yellow River, China: balancing environmental and
human needs through quotas and pricing reform ...............274
Phase-out of ozone-depleting substances in India...................275
Ship breaking in South Asia: implementing a new
international environmental agreement..............................277
Low-carbon green growth in the Republic of Korea
and China..........................................................................278
Participation in the management of natural resources
in India and Nepal.............................................................279
Chapter 11: Europe
Greenhouse gas reduction pledges for the post-2012 period.......295
The German Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff scheme..............298
Transferring innovative climate insurance schemes ................298
Stockholms air quality management policies in a
low-emission zone.............................................................302
Integrated Tisza River Basin Management Plan........................303
Nitrogen accounting in Denmark ............................................304
Water metering in Armenia ....................................................305
Extended producer responsibility...........................................306
Ukraines national ecological network ....................................310
Conserving high nature-value farmland in Portugal..................311
Environmental governance.....................................................320
Levels of governance in Latin America and the Caribbean........320
Threats to biodiversity in Latin America and the Caribbean........329
Key features of the ecosystem approach to biodiversity
management.....................................................................331
xiv
Contents
Payment for ecosystem services (PES) in support of

existing policies................................................................332
Key facts about land conditions in Latin America and
the Caribbean....................................................................333
Key facts on land degradation in Latin America and
the Caribbean....................................................................336
Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in
the Caribbean....................................................................337
Brazils Bolsa Verde................................................................340
Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean.............................341
The Quebec and British Columbia carbon taxes.......................354
Ontario: a comprehensive approach to energy........................355
Marylands Smart Growth programme: financial incentives
and planning.....................................................................361
Canadian land-use reserves in Ontario and British
Columbia: command and control........................................361
Protection and management of the Great Lakes Basin.......................363
Texas: a rapid expansion of wind energy.................................368
Yemens integrated water resources management plan.............379
Leak detection and repair of the distribution system
in Bahrain.........................................................................380
Irrigation management in Saudi Arabia...................................381
Protection and rehabilitation of rangelands in Syria................383
Sustainable agricultural development in Bahrain...................... 383
Integrated agricultural management in Al-Karak, Jordan..........385
Energy conservation in buildings in Kuwait.............................387
Solar water heaters in Jordan and the Occupied
Palestinian Territories........................................................389
Coastal and Area Management Programme (CAMP)
in Lebanon........................................................................392
Marawah Biosphere Reserve, Abu Dhabi, United
Arab Emirates ...................................................................393
Fish stock enhancement in Bahrain.........................................394
The Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the
Environment (CAMRE)........................................................395
A possible vision of the world on a path towards
sustainability in 2050........................................................425
Integrated simulation of the 2050 targets for climate,
food and land....................................................................434
The sustainable world scenario for water withdrawals.............437
Integrated global analysis of sustainability scenarios..............443
Indias National Watershed Development Project for
Rainfed Areas (NDWPRA) adaptive governance
and policy-making at the sub-national level........................450
Diffusion of policy tools worldwide the case of strategic
environmental assessment................................................465
Identifying financial flows for environmental response............466

International aid for the environment......................................468
Response option 1: Framing environmental goals in the
context of sustainable development and monitoring
outcomes..........................................................................471
Response option 2: Enhancing the effectiveness of
global institutions.............................................................473
Response option 3: Investing in enhanced capacities
for addressing environmental change ................................475
Technology Mechanism at the UNFCCC....................................476

Response option 4: Supporting technological innovation
and development..............................................................477
Response option 5: Strengthening rights-based approaches
and access to environmental justice...................................479
Social learning ......................................................................480
Cities and climate action........................................................481
Response option 6: Deepening and broadening
stakeholder engagement...................................................482
Contents
xv
Foreword
Anyone wishing to understand the pace and scale of
environmental change will find UNEPs flagship assessment
report Global Environment Outlook-5: Environment for the
future we want compelling reading. Equally, anyone seeking
a paradigm shift that can bring us closer to a truly sustainable
world will find this latest edition of the GEO series rich in
opportunities and policy options.
GEO-5 is designed to be the most comprehensive, impartial and
in-depth assessment of its kind. It reflects the collective body
of recent scientific knowledge, drawing on the work of leading
experts, partner institutions and the vast body of research
undertaken within and beyond the United Nations system.
The launch of GEO-5 coincides with the final stages of preparation
for the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), taking
place two decades after the Rio Earth Summit that set the agenda for
contemporary thinking about sustainable development. The report
underlines the reasons why world leaders need to show decisive
leadership in Rio and beyond. It highlights the state, trends and
trajectories of the planet and its people, and showcases more than
100 initiatives, projects and policies from across the globe that are
pioneering positive environmental change.
In a world with a growing population, glaring inequality
and a precarious environmental base, it is imperative that
Governments collaborate to balance the economic, social and
environmental strands of sustainable development. GEO-5
highlights not just the perils of delaying action, but the options
that exist to transform sustainable development from theory
to reality. I commend GEO-5 to all who wish to invest in this
generational opportunity to create the future we want.
xvi
Foreword
BAN Ki-moon
Secretary General of the United Nations
United Nations Headquarters, New York
May 2012
Preface
Since the days of the ancient Egyptians, Greeks and Chinese,
through the Islamic Golden Age and the Renaissance,
philosophers and scientists have sought to make sense of the
forces and processes of the natural world and humanitys place
within them. In the past half century or so, this endeavour has
accelerated as concerns over the impacts of industrialization
have emerged and more recently been fuelled by a growing
realization that people once marginal influencers of
environmental change are now its principal drivers, from
biodiversity loss to climate change.
The Global Environment Outlook: Environment for the future we
want (GEO-5) is part of this broad sweep of history, and is a major
contribution to the public understanding of the way ecosystems
and the atmosphere are responding to patterns of unprecedented
consumption and production patterns taking place on a planet of
7 billion people, rising to more than 9 billion by 2050. Its findings
on the state of the planet, globally and regionally, are unsurprisingly
sobering and cause for profound concern they should serve as
a reminder to world leaders and delegates attending the Rio+20
Summit in June as to why they are there.
Bridging the science-policy interface remains problematic
translating the findings of science into environmental law and
policy making has been a challenge stretching back through Rio
1992 to the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment
of 1972. Encouragingly, a growing scientific understanding and
technological progress have not fallen on deaf ears; they have
inspired a myriad of treaties and agreements covering such
issues as the trade in endangered species, the protection of the
ozone layer, climate change, biodiversity loss and the banning of
persistent organic pollutants.
themes for Rio+20. The summit is about taking stock and

renewing commitments, but it is also about the integration of
scientific findings in evidence-based policy making and the
re-engagement of society in endeavours to move the world on
to a sustainable path.
GEO-5 adds new dimensions to the discourse through its

assessment of progress towards meeting internationally agreed
goals and identifying gaps in their achievement. Out of 90 goals
and objectives assessed, significant progress could only be shown
for four. Of equal concern, progress could not be appraised for 14
goals and objectives simply because data were lacking.
In summary, science must underpin policy making, but as five

GEO assessments and reports have shown, it is not enough.
Realizing and implementing science-based policies is where the
real gap resides, and this can be bridged not by more satellite
observations, field monitoring, computations and scenario
modeling but by courage, decisiveness and political leadership
that matches the reality that GEO-5 confirms.
When nations take stock of sustainable development 20 years

after the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, the limited achievements and
endemic knowledge divide between North and South should be
high on the agenda.
Another GEO-5 innovation is that it highlights a regional selection

of more than a hundred policies and transformational actions
that have been tried and tested successfully in countries and
communities around the world. These policy options give decision
makers tools that could be adapted to their own settings.
Achim Steiner
Such policy options are part of a broad sweep of emerging work
termed the Green Economy, which in the context of sustainable
development and poverty eradication is one of the two major
United Nations Under-Secretary General and Executive Director

United Nations Environment Programme
Preface
xvii
Introduction
THE EARTH SYSTEM CONTEXT
The Earth System provides the basis for all human societies
and their economic activities. People need clean air to breathe,
safe water to drink, healthy food to eat, energy to produce and
transport goods, and natural resources that provide the raw
materials for all these services. However, the 7 billion humans
alive today are collectively exploiting the Earths resources at
accelerating rates and intensities that surpass the capacity of its
systems to absorb wastes and neutralize the adverse effects on
the environment. In fact, the depletion or degradation of several
key resources has already constrained conventional development
in some parts of the world.
Within the Earth System which acts as a single, self-regulating
system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human
components the effects of human activities can be detected
at a planetary scale (Chapter 7). These have led scientists to
define a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, based on
evidence that atmospheric, geological, hydrological, biological
and other Earth System processes are being altered by human
activity. The most readily recognized changes include a rise in
global temperatures and sea levels, and ocean acidification, all
associated with the increase in emissions of greenhouse gases,
especially carbon dioxide and methane (Chapters 2 and 4). Other
human-induced changes include extensive deforestation and
land clearance for agriculture and urbanization, causing species
extinctions as natural habitats are destroyed (Chapters 3 and 5).
While humans have long been aware of the effects of their
activities on the local environment, only in the last few
decades has it become apparent that these activities can
cumulatively affect the global environment (Chapters 17). In
the past, anthropogenic pressures on natural resources were
less pervasive and the Earths atmosphere, land and water
could carry the load of human consumption and production.
However, in the second half of the 20th century the effects of
many diverse local changes compounded at accelerating rates
to produce global consequences. Globalization allows goods
to be produced under circumstances that consumers would
refuse to tolerate in their own community, and permits waste
to be exported out of sight, enabling people to ignore both its
magnitude and its impacts. However, just as waste has literally
reached the ends of the Earth, environmental concerns have
become globalized as well (Chapter 1).
These threats to the Earth System have led the science
community and policy makers to work together more closely to
meet the challenge in a sustainable and collaborative manner.
THE SCIENCE-POLICY CONTEXT
At the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human

Environment, 119 nations came together for the first time
to discuss serious environmental concerns raised by the
xviii
Introduction
scientific and conservation communities. As an initial step,

the conference established UNEP to catalyse international
and UN-wide environmental action. Twenty years on, the
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
in Rio de Janeiro approved Agenda 21, a blueprint for the
introduction of sustainable development, a concept first
articulated as satisfying the needs of the present generation
without compromising the chance for future generations to
satisfy theirs in the World Commission on Environment and
Development 1987 report Our Common Future. In the second
decade of the new century, Agenda 21 remains a vibrant and
relevant guide with many of its precepts yet to be applied,
particularly in regard to consumption.
The 2000 Millennium Summit, which brought world leaders
together to discuss the role of the United Nations at the turn of
the 21st century, produced eight Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) to make up for shortcomings that resulted from a focus
on economic objectives while international development stalled.
The MDGs address the integration of sustainable development
principles into country policies and programmes and aim to
reverse the impoverishment of human and environmental
resources, while setting time-bound targets and establishing
metrics. MDG 7, which specifically addresses the environment, set
targets to make significant reductions in the rate of biodiversity
loss by 2010, to halve the proportion of the population without
sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by
2015, and to achieve a significant improvement in the lives of at
least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020.
As understanding has developed about the relationship between
human well-being and environmental change, so have the
attempts to make it relevant for policy makers. The dependence
of social development and economic activity on environmental
services and stability is increasingly understood. An economy
functions within a society, or within and between societies, using
natural and human resources to produce marketable goods and
services. At the same time, societies survive and thrive within the
environment determined by the physical limits of atmosphere,
land, water, biodiversity and other material resources.
Interacting environmental, social and economic forces produce
a complex system that has been the focus of substantial
research, but it is only in the last two decades that information
and communication technologies have enabled researchers
to model and explore the intricate complexities of the whole
Earth System.
Insights gained from the ability to appreciate the power and
nuance of Earth System complexities demand a new perception
of the responsibilities and accountabilities of nation states
towards planetary stewardship (Chapter 16 and 17). This not
only requires the realization of environment and development
goals and targets but also the development of specific goals

aimed at global sustainability, addressing the needs of the most
vulnerable as well as the wants of the more powerful.
The elaboration of such goals requires scientifically credible
indicators and information to guide, track and report progress
(Chapter 8). Integrated environmental assessments are tools, within
a broad and deep toolkit, that have been developed to meet this
need. However, for the most part, policy developments and revisions
have failed to adequately incorporate assessment findings and
other scientific information into international policy priorities.
BACKGROUND
The main goal of UNEPs Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to

keep governments and stakeholders informed of the state and
trends of the global environment. Over the past 15 years, the
GEO reports have examined a wealth of data, information and
knowledge about the global environment; identified potential
policy responses; and provided an outlook for the future. The
assessments, and their consultative and collaborative processes,
have worked to bridge the gap between science and policy by
turning the best available scientific knowledge into information
relevant for decision makers.
Previous GEO reports focused on an analysis of environmental
issues and the identification of responses, using an integrated
approach that provided a comprehensive and multidisciplinary
overview across different themes. This fifth Global Environment
Outlook (GEO-5) builds on previous reports, continuing to provide
analyses of the state, trends and outlook for, and responses to,
environmental change. But it also adds new dimensions through
its assessment of progress towards meeting internationally
agreed goals and identifying gaps in their achievement
(Chapters 26), on analysing promising response options that
have emerged in the regions (Chapters 915), and presenting
potential responses for the international community (Chapters
1617). Furthermore, for the first time, GEO-5 suggests that there
should be a fundamental shift in the way environmental issues
are analysed, with consideration given to the drivers of global
change, rather than merely to the pressures on the environment.
Details of the process followed by the UNEP Secretariat in
developing GEO-5, including the assemblage of more than
600 scientists guided by governmental, scientific and policy
advisory bodies, is presented in the GEO-5 Process section.
STRUCTURE
The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three

distinct but linked parts.
Part 1 State and trends of the global environment
To explore todays rapidly changing socio-economic conditions,

Chapter 1 examines the drivers of environmental change the
overarching socio-economic forces that exert varying degrees of

influence, or pressures, on the environment. Chapter 1 identifies
and describes these major root causes of the environmental
challenges and provides some suggestions for policy
interventions.
Using the drivers, pressures, state, impacts and responses
(DPSIR) analytical framework (Figure 1), the GEO-5 assessment
presents the latest state and trends of the global environment
under the themes of atmosphere, land, water, biodiversity
and, for the first time in the GEO series, chemicals and waste
(Chapters 26).
The DPSIR framework is used to identify and evaluate the
complex and multidimensional cause-and-effect relationships
between society and the environment. The DPSIR framework
used in GEO assessments is an extension of the pressure-stateresponse model developed by the OECD and the European
Environment Agency in the mid-1990s. Drivers such as population
dynamics, economic demand and unsustainable consumption
and production patterns are processes that lead to impacts on
the environment. These drivers often directly or indirectly result
in environmental pressures including increased emissions of
pollutants and wastes and destructive resource extraction. Such
pressures cause changes to the environment with concomitant
impacts on both humans and ecosystems. The DPSIR analytical
framework helps to identify these processes. Finally, it suggests
responses, which can take many forms at many scales from
community action to international treaties, not only to the
underlying drivers, but also to the environmental pressures and
their impacts on ecosystems and human health.
Chapters 26 evaluate whether a selection of internationally
agreed environmental goals are being met for each of the
themes; Chapter 7 provides a synthesis of the thematic
information from an Earth System perspective. Part 1 concludes
with a review of the need to strengthen the collection, analysis
and interpretation of data relevant to tracking the state and
trends of the environment as a fundamental requirement for
further research, for monitoring and evaluation, for scientific
assessments, and for effective policy making (Chapter 8).
Part 2 Policy options from the regions
Part 2 of GEO-5, Chapters 914, presents an appraisal of policy

options from the regions that show potential for helping to speed
up the accomplishment of internationally agreed goals. This was
requested by UNEPs Governing Council and provides readers
wishing to implement successful policies with promising avenues
for exploration.
To direct the policy appraisal, multi-stakeholder consultations
were undertaken in each region to identify priority environmental
challenges and related internationally agreed goals.
Introduction
xix
Following a screening exercise, policies or policy clusters that either

demonstrated a record of success with respect to their associated
goals or featured innovative characteristics combined with
promising initial results were retained and analysed in further
detail. The policy appraisal was based on literature review,
documented case studies and expert opinion. It was not always
possible to apply a consistent appraisal methodology due to

the multi-faceted and non-quantifiable elements of some of
the internationally agreed goals and the multi-dimensional and
cross-cutting nature of the co-benefits and trade-offs of the
policies. Consistency of approach was also hampered by a lack
of underlying data and indicators.
Figure 1 The GEO-5 DPSIR conceptual framework
Global
Regional
Local
HUMAN SOCIETY
Drivers (d)
Impacts (i):
Material, human and social capital
Change in human well-being
Human development
Demographics
Economic processes (consumption,
production, markets and trade)
Scientic and technological innovation
Distribution pattern processes (interand intra-generational)
Cultural, social, political and
institutional processes (including
production and service sectors)
Responses (r)
Formal and informal adaptation to,
and mitigation of, environmental change
(including restoration) by altering human
activity and development patterns within
and between the D, P and I boxes through
inter alia: science and technology, policy,
law and institutions.
Demographic, social (institutional)

and material factors determining
human well-being
Environmental factors determining
human well-being
Pressures (p)
Human interventions in the
environment
Land use
Resource extraction
External inputs (fertilizers, chemicals,
irrigation)
Emissions (pollutants and waste)
Modication and movement of
organisms
broadly dened as human freedoms of

choice and actions, to achieve, inter alia:
Security
Basic material needs
Good health
Good social relations
which may result in human development
or poverty, inequity and human
vulnerability
Ecological services such as provisioning

services (consumptive use), cultural
services (non-consumptive use),
regulating services and supporting
services (indirect use)
Non-ecosystem natural resources such
as hydrocarbons, minerals and
renewable energy
Stress, inter alia diseases, pests,
radiation and hazards
ENVIRONMENT
State and trends (s)

Natural capital:
atmosphere, land, water and
biosphere
Natural processes:
Solar radiation
Volcanoes
Earthquakes
Environmental impacts and change

Climate change and depletion of the
stratospheric ozone layer
Biodiversity change
Pollution, degradation and/or
depletion of air, water, minerals
and land (including desertication)
Source: 2012 United Nations Environment Programme DEWA/ GRID-Geneva
xx
Introduction
The appraisal explored the benefits of the policies and the enabling
conditions that facilitated their adoption or success. Other
characteristics that were analysed include the monitoring and
tracking of environmental, economic or social outcomes; crosscutting effects on other priority themes and internationally agreed
goals; and the potential for their application in new contexts.
Each region identified policy responses that were effective and
potentially suitable for replication and/or adoption in other
countries. Some highly promising approaches featured in the
regional chapters are worthy of closer analysis and possible
testing by governments.
The regional summary at the end of Part 2 (Chapter 15) presents
an overview of the priority environmental challenges selected
by the regions; a discussion on commonalities, challenges, and
opportunities; and a summary of the policy options.
Part 3 Opportunities for a global response
The final part of GEO-5 begins with an analysis of the type of actions
required to reach a sustainable world. It first reviews existing
environmental treaties and internationally agreed goals to construct
a possible vision for 2050 with specific goals and targets. Next,
existing scenario studies are reviewed in the context of two possible
categories: conventional world scenarios that depict possible
development if present trends continue and, second, global
scenarios that aim to achieve a sustainable world. The analysis that
follows identifies a range of measures that could enable the world
to reach the sustainable development targets identified by GEO-5.
Achieving these targets, however, requires radical departure from
current trends. To account for the interactions of policies across
sectors in the dense and interlinked system of global activities, an
integrated sustainable world scenario is included in the analysis

to examine the extent and complexity of policy changes needed to
achieve the vision for 2050 (Chapter 16).
Chapters 16 and 17 review the state of knowledge of how public
institutions, the private sector and civil society could generate
effective and efficient responses to environmental change. While
many responses at national and regional levels have successfully
put societies on trajectories that are beginning to address some of
these challenges, the analysis confirms that global environmental
change cannot be addressed successfully by any single approach.
GEO-5 concludes by identifying action to undertake at the global
level, combined with relevant national applications where
appropriate, to enable the adoption of truly transformative
policies as well as the legal, institutional and policy frameworks
required to make them successful. GEO-5 will provide the reader
not only with an understanding of the complexity of the threats
humanity faces, but possible policy solutions and transformative
pathways to a sustainable future.
The GEO-5 process contributes to UNEPs Mission of providing
leadership and encouraging partnership in caring for the
environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and
peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising
that of future generations. To facilitate its development the Earth
was divided into regions which largely reflect the concerns and
remits of the six UNEPs Regional Offices, and allowed them to
provide regional support to the working teams preparing GEO-5.
A full breakdown of the regions, sub-regions and their respective
nation states can be found on the Environmental Data Explorer
(formerly the GEO Data Portal), at www.unep.org/geo/data
Figure 2 UNEP regions

Europe
North
America
Asia and
the Pacific
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
West
Asia
Africa
Source: 2012 United Nations Environment Programme DEWA/GRID-Geneva
Introduction
xxi
Part 1: State and Trends of the

Environment
Chapter 1:
Drivers
Chapter 2:
Atmosphere
Chapter 3:
Land
Chapter 4:
Water
Chapter 5:
Biodiversity
Chapter 6:
Chemicals and Waste

Chapter 7:

Chapter 8:
As we watch the sun go down, evening after evening, through the smog across
the poisoned waters of our native Earth, we must ask ourselves seriously
whether we really wish some future universal historian on another planet to say
about us: With all their genius and with all their skill, they ran out of foresight
and air and food and water and ideas
U Thant, UN Secretary General, addressing 7th Session of the General Assembly,
New York, 1970
C H A P T E R
samxmeg/iStock
Drivers
Coordinating lead authors: Marc A. Levy and Alexandra C. Morel

Lead authors: Susana B. Adamo, Jane Barr, Catherine P. McMullen, Thomas Dietz,
David Lpez-Carr and Eugene A. Rosa
Contributing authors: Alec Crawford, Elizabeth R. Desombre, Matthew Gluschankoff,
Konstadinos Goulias, Jason Jabbour, Yeonjoo Kim, David Laborde Debucquet,
Ana Rosa Moreno, Siwa Msangi, Matthew Paterson, Batimaa Punsalmaa, Ray Tomalty
and Craig Townsend
Principal scientific reviewer: Shobhakar Dhakal
Chapter coordinator: Jason Jabbour
Drivers
Main Messages
The scale, spread and rate of change of global
drivers are without precedent. Burgeoning
populations and growing economies are pushing
environmental systems to destabilizing limits. The
idea that the perturbation of a complex ecological
system can trigger sudden feedbacks is not new:
significant scientific research has explored thresholds
and tipping points that the planetary system may
face if humanity does not control carbon emissions.
Understanding feedbacks from the perspective
of drivers reveals that many of them interact in
unpredictable ways. Generally, the rates of change in
these drivers are not monitored or managed, and so it
is not possible to predict or even perceive dangerous
thresholds as they approach. Critically, the bulk of
research has been on understanding the effects of
drivers on ecosystems, not on the effects of changed
ecosystems on the drivers the feedback loop.
Patterns of globalization links between trade,
finance, technology and communication have made
it possible for trends in drivers to generate intense
pressures in concentrated parts of the world very
quickly. There has been a rapid rise in the production
of biomass-based fuels for transport from maize,
sugar cane, palm oil and rapeseed. In the early years
of the 21st century, biodiesel became more widely
available, with production growing at around 60 per
cent per year, reaching nearly 13 million tonnes of
oil equivalent in 2009. However, recent information
raises concerns about the direct environmental
and social consequences of large-scale biofuel
production. These complex issues include, but are
not limited to, land clearance and conversion, the
introduction of potentially invasive species, the
overuse of water, effects on the global food market,
and the purchase or leasing of land by foreign
investors to produce food and biofuels, typically in
developing and sometimes semi-arid countries.
Drivers typically have high inertia and path
dependencies, which can act as barriers to effective
4
4
Part 1: State and Trends

action. Three-quarters of the agricultural land in the

United States is dedicated to just eight commodity
crops: maize, wheat, cotton, soybeans, rice, barley,
oats and sorghum. This dominance is reinforced by
a set of interlocking structural constraints including
high levels of producer subsidies, dietary preferences,
and a large industrialized food processing
economy. For example, of the top 20 sources of
industrial pollution in the United States, eight are
slaughterhouses, but even with well-understood
environmental and health problems associated with
this food system, its highly entrenched nature makes
it extremely difficult to modify.
Although reducing the drivers of environmental
change directly may appear politically difficult, it
is possible to accomplish some environmental cobenefits by targeting more expedient objectives,
such as international goals on human well-being.
Education is recognized as a basic human right,
included in the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights. Achieving universal primary education is
Goal 2 of the Millennium Development Goals, and it
is linked to the improvement of gender equality and
womens empowerment. Together with access to
reproductive health, education is a key determinant
of fertility levels. Greater investment in education
has been correlated with declining fertility, rising
incomes and increasing longevity, and also with an
educated citizenry able to express concern about
environmental matters.
Surveillance and monitoring get results. Even where
policy responses are not immediately possible,
awareness of the importance of drivers can justify
increased efforts at surveillance and monitoring.
Many of the most important drivers identified in
this chapter are currently not subject to systematic
monitoring, their impacts even less so. The evidence,
then, is compelling for the need to enhance the
understanding and monitoring of drivers and their
links with the environment.
INTRODUCTION
The 20th century was characterized by exceptional growth both

in the human population and in the size of the global economy,
with the population quadrupling to 7 billion and global economic
output, expressed as gross domestic product (GDP), increasing
more than 20-fold (Maddison 2009). This expansion has been
accompanied by fundamental changes in the scale, intensity and
character of societys relationship with the natural world (Steffen
et al. 2007; MA 2005; McNeill 2000). In tracking and analysing
these transformations, a new understanding of the complexities
of the Earths biophysical systems has been developed.
It is four decades since Lovelock (1972) introduced the idea
that the Earths systems were a complex organism. More
recently, science has struggled with the realization that many
Earth systems are at planetary boundaries that must not be
crossed (Rockstrm et al. 2009). These concepts are useful to
communicate both the dependence of human development on
the environment and the urgency with which the consequences
of collective human activity on the biological, physical and
chemical processes of the Earths systems need to be addressed.
The impacts of human activities include alteration of the
global carbon cycle by carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
emissions; disruption of the nitrogen, phosphorous and sulphur
cycles; interruptions in natural river flows that interfere with
the water cycle; destruction of ecosystems that has led to the
extinction of countless species; and drastic modification of the
planets land cover (Rockstrm et al. 2009).
FRAMEWORK
The fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5) is organized using

the DPSIR framework consisting of drivers, pressures, states,
impacts and responses along a continuum (Stanners et al. 2007).
Drivers refer to the overarching socio-economic forces that exert
pressures on the state of the environment. While GEO-4 identified
drivers within a thematic context, GEO-5 identifies two major
drivers on the continuum population and economic development
that influence cross-cutting dynamic patterns and generate
complex systemic interactions. For example, the pressure of
supplying food, feed and fibre to growing urban centres threatens
biodiversity, a pressure then exacerbated by climate change.
Pressures can include resource extraction, land-use change and
the modification and movement of organisms. For example,
as economic growth and the demand for agricultural products
rise, so does the conversion of land for agricultural purposes,
as well as the use of agrochemicals. Similarly, market demands,
trade and globalization patterns can lead to the inadvertent
transport of invasive species that may wreak havoc on the natural
ecosystems they newly inhabit.
The DPSIR framework asks three questions (Pinter et al. 1999):
What is happening to the environment and why (pressure and
state)?
What is the consequence of the changed environment (impact)?
If appropriate, what is being done about it and how effective
is it (response)?
Questions regarding the role of drivers behind pressures

and the relationship between the two can lead to persistent
theoretical discussions. GEO-5 assumes that such roles and
relationships are fluid, sometimes arbitrary, a stance that should
serve the purposes of this assessment.
To facilitate policy-making, this report considers leverage
points to be advantageous places to intervene in the complex
human interaction with the Earth System (Meadows 1999). In
many cases, the most important leverage points for policy may
not be the pressures themselves but the drivers. There can be
substantial co-benefits, and trade-offs, associated with altering
drivers in order to reduce pressure on the environment.
To effectively describe the selected drivers and for a better
understanding of the pressures acting on the environment, two
questions are asked that focus on why environmental changes
are occurring or, more fundamentally, why there is pressure.
What is the scale or quantity of the driver? This entails both
the size of the driver and its growth rate, as well as the extent
of its influence and effect on other parameters.
What is the intensity or quality of the driver? This entails the
organization of the driver as well as the various processes it
exhibits and influences.
DRIVERS
Population growth and economic development are seen as

ubiquitous drivers of environmental change with particular
facets exerting pressure: energy, transport, urbanization and
globalization. While this list may not be exhaustive, it is useful.
Understanding the growth in these drivers and the connections
between them will go a long way to address their collective impact
and find possible solutions, thereby preserving the environmental
benefits on which human societies and economies depend.
Population
Many environmental pressures are proportional to the number of

people dependent on natural resources, although technological
advances can mitigate individual impacts. When a population of
deer, rats or sea urchins grows beyond the carrying capacity of their
ecosystem, their populations crash. Sometimes the ecosystem
recovers but sometimes it is permanently altered. This has been
happening to human populations for millennia as they grow
beyond the capacity of their valley, island or landscape to support
their society, and they face famine, plague or collapse (Diamond
2005). In the last century, as human numbers grew, people came
to exploit most of Earths surface, but it is not only the scale or
quantity of the population that affects the nature of a pressure
on the environment. In addition, how human populations are
organized in cities or villages, in nuclear or extended families,
as migrants or those that stay behind makes a difference to the
capacity of the environment to support them in their way of life.
Quantity
The human population reached 7 billion in 2011 and is expected
to reach 10 billion by 2100 (UN 2011). Using the regions defined
by the UN Statistics Division, the Asia and Oceania region has
Drivers
the largest population, Africa is the fastest-growing and most

youthful region, and Europe and North America have the slowestgrowing populations and the highest proportion of elderly. As
of 2012, much of the current growth in global population can
be attributed to momentum left from past population increases,
shifts in generational composition, and communities with high
fertility rates in rural areas of less developed countries and
elsewhere (Bongaarts and Bulatao 1999). Population momentum
explains the apparent contradiction between a growing
population size and declining fertility rates. Higher fertility rates
in previous decades have resulted in a large generation of youth
now entering or in the reproductive age group. This increase in
the reproducing population creates conditions for larger numbers
of births overall, even though couples are having fewer children.
Fertility is declining in almost all countries, although rates vary
broadly. At the global level, the crude birth rate fell from 37 births
per thousand in 19501955 to 20 per thousand in 20052010,
while total fertility, or the number of children per woman,
declined from 4.9 in 19501955 to 2.6 in 20052010 (UN 2011).
While the fertility decline was more accentuated in developing
countries from 6.0 to 2.7 children per woman between 1950
and 2010 fertility levels in the countries of the less developed
regions are still spread over a broad range. Among developed
countries, fertility levels were already relatively low in 1950 at
2.8 children per woman, but continued to fall to 1.6 children per
woman in 2010, which is less than the replacement rate of 2.1
children per woman (Box 1.1) (UN 2011). Although the global
growth rate peaked more than 40 years ago, some estimates
suggest there will be another billion people by 2025 and a further
billion before mid-century (UN 2009a).
Fertility and mortality are closely linked. Fewer pregnancies, for

example, translate into a reduction in maternal mortality, which
in many countries is still a leading cause of death for women of
childbearing age. Further, lower infant and child mortality may lead
to lower fertility rates as parents become better able to depend on
their children surviving (Palloni and Rafalimanana 1999).
The epidemiological transition closely mirrors the fertility aspect
of the demographic transition. In regions that are in an early
demographic stage those with high birth and death rates
death clusters around infants, whose deaths are mostly related
to nutritional deficiencies, and those dying of communicable
diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS.
In regions that have entered a later demographic stage those
with lower birth and death rates infant mortality is low and
deaths coalesce around the elderly and are associated with
obesity and aging, with many deaths due to cancer and heart
disease (Murray and Lopez 1997).
Mortality transitions remain distinct between developed and
developing countries, despite improvements. Infant mortality has
continued to decline and life expectancy to rise everywhere. Global
average life expectancy in 19501955 was 47 years, while in 2005
2010 it was 6568 for men and 70 for women (UN 2009a). There
are, of course, important regional variations, particularly in terms
of infant mortality in the least developed countries, young adult
mortality in countries affected by the HIV epidemic, and old-age
mortality in developed countries (de Sherbinin et al. 2007; Rindfuss
and Adamo 2004). Table 1.1 shows notable disparities in mortality
rates. Infant mortality rates vary from 74 deaths per 1000 live births
in Africa to 6 deaths per 1000 in Europe and North America.
Table 1.1 Demographic data, 2011*

Africa
Asia and
Oceania
Europe
Latin America and

the Caribbean
North
America
World (all countries

with data)
Birth rate per 1000 population
36
18
11
18
13
20
Death rate per 1000 population
12
11
Life expectancy
58
70
76
74
78
70
Total fertility rate per woman
4.7
2.2
39
1.6
2.2
1.9
2.5
Infant mortality rate per 1000 live births
74
Net migration rate per 1000 population
-1
Internal migration rate 19902005, %
15.4
13.2
22.3
19.3
17.8
17.5
Married women aged 1549 using

contraception, all methods, %
29
64
73
74
78
61
Married women aged 1549 using

contraception, modern methods, %
25
59
60
67
73
55
0.04
19
44
-1
N/A
* Unless otherwise stated.

Source: PRB 2011; UNDP 2009
Box 1.1 Facilitating the demographic transition through education

Population levels and growth rates are not subject to
international goals and targets, although population is directly
relevant to major policy areas, including the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs). The most cost-effective method
of reducing population pressures is through meeting the
demand for contraception: many countries formulate policy
targets around meeting unmet demand while increasing
demand through investing in education for girls. Given that
approximately 40 per cent of pregnancies remain unintended,
great potential exists to meet latent demand for contraception
(Singh et al. 2010).
In developing countries, girls education is critical not only for

reducing fertility, but for the associated lower mortality rates
and improvements in health (Lutz and Samir 2011). Between
1970 and 2009, more than half of the deaths prevented among
children under the age of five could be attributed to increased
womens education during their reproductive age (Gakidou
et al. 2010). In addition, women have been better equipped
to resist violence by gaining greater socio-economic standing
through education. This empowerment has, for example,
helped women avoid HIV/AIDS infection (Bhana et al. 2009;
Vyas and Watts 2009).
Education is recognized as a basic human right included in

the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UNDHR 1948).
Achieving universal primary education is MDG 2, linked to the
improvement of gender equality and womens empowerment
(UN 2000). Together with access to reproductive health
(MDG 5b), education is a key determinant of fertility levels.
Increasing investment in education has been correlated with
declining fertility, rising incomes and greater longevity (Bulled
and Sosis 2010), and an educated human population is also
able to express greater concern about environmental matters
(White and Hunter 2009).
Great opportunities exist for positive interventions in education.

An ethical imperative and a social and economic good, universal
education for girls would also empower them to make their
own choices concerning starting and expanding their families.
Globally, girls represent 60 per cent of the 77 million children
not attending primary school (CARE 2011). To achieve the MDG
of universal primary school enrolment by 2015 it is estimated
that an additional US$1030 billion per year needs to be
invested on top of the approximately US$80 billion currently
spent annually on primary education (Bruns et al. 2003;
Devarajan et al. 2002).
Migration is another component of the demographic transition

and is characterized by shifts from predominantly ruralrural migration in regions at early stages of the transition,
to rural-urban and international migration in regions at later
stages. The most dynamic of the three population processes,
population movements produce local and global environmental
consequences. Migration may have any of three direct impacts
on the environment:
rural-rural migration produces direct household impacts on
natural resources, often through agricultural expansion;
rural-urban migration and associated livelihood changes are
often accompanied by changing patterns of energy use and
increased meat and dairy consumption, which can intensify
land pressures in productive rural areas; and
international migration, with remittances sent home, can
have a direct impact through land-use investments or an
indirect impact through increased meat, dairy and material
consumption.
Africa is increasingly urbanizing, although most of the population
remains rural; Asia and Oceania and Latin America and the
Caribbean are already largely urbanized and migration streams
are increasingly international; and the United States and Europe
have high internal migration associated with labour mobility
(UNDESA 2011; Zaiceva and Zimmerman 2008).
The sending and receiving areas of rural-urban and
international migration remain connected through remittances,
with specific characteristics varying considerably across

regions. The potential remittance-driven impact on land use
change is significant, while remittance-driven consumption may
be similar in scale but more diffuse in its environmental impacts
(World Bank 2011b).
Figure 1.1 The demographic transition
Birth rate
Total population
Death rate
Time
High birth rate Declining death

and high but
rate and
fluctuating death continuing high
rate
birth rate
Declining birth Low death rate and

and death rates low but fluctuating
birth rate
Source: University of Michigan 2011
Drivers
such as fertility, mortality and migration, and the fact that some
locations are simply less suitable for human occupation (Adamo
and de Sherbinin 2011). Population is particularly concentrated
at lower elevations and near coasts. An estimate from 1998
suggested that a zone below an altitude of 100 metres,
comprising 15 per cent of all inhabited land, houses about
30 per cent of the human population (Cohen and Small 1998).
Low-elevation coastal zones are even more concentrated,
representing about 2 per cent of total land area but housing
13 per cent of the population, and growing rapidly (McGranahan
et al. 2007).
Figure 1.2 Urban population, 19502050

Billion people
7
Africa
Asia
6
Europe
5
4

North America
Oceania
In 1950 only 29 per cent of the world population lived in urban

settings and only New York and Tokyo, with their populations of
more than 10 million people, qualified as megacities. The urban
proportion reached 50 per cent in 2010 with 20 megacities, the
bulk of them in Asia and Latin America (Figure 1.2). Urban growth
rates are high in both Asia and Africa (Satterthwaite et al. 2010),
with the highest rates in recent decades in middle-sized cities
(Montgomery 2008).
3
2
1
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: UN 2009b
Internal migration is increasingly dominated by rural-urban flows,

a trend that is expected to continue (Sommers 2010; Rindfuss
and Adamo 2004; Cohen and Small 1998). However, in some
developing countries, a minority of rural-rural migrants has a
disproportionate impact on tropical deforestation (Carr 2009;
Lambin et al. 2003). Increasing migration to coastal areas and
small islands can affect the environmental integrity of coastal
wetlands and associated fisheries (Rindfuss and Adamo 2004).
World population is unevenly distributed, with densities in 2010
varying from 21 000 people per km2 in Macao to 0.03 per km2
in Greenland. This is due to a number of factors including
settlement history, regional variations in demographic dynamics
Quality
Beyond the size and growth rates of populations, the way
people settle and the way they consume can result in effects
on different ecosystems.
While all of the worlds net population growth by 2050 is projected
to occur in the worlds poorest cities (UN 2009b), virtually all landcover change will take place in rural environments. The greatest
human imprint on the Earths surface has been the conversion of
forest to agriculture. Currently, 37.4 per cent of the planets land
surface is used for agricultural production (Foley et al. 2011).
Located on only 0.5 per cent of the global terrestrial surface
(Schneider et al. 2009), urban areas demand for food is
disproportionately large in terms of world land use. At
the same time, forest loss is no longer correlated to rural
Table 1.2 International migration, 19502100

19701975
19751980
19801985
19851990
19901995
19952000
20002005
20052010
More developed regions
6 122
6 076
5 643
7 433
11 895
13 821
17 450
16 558
Less developed regions
-6 122
-6 076
-5 643
-7 433
-11 895
-13 821
-17 450
-16 558
Least developed countries
-4 872
-4 301
-5 735
-3 562
2 563
-3 061
-3 351
-5 559
Less developed regions, excluding

least developed countries
-1 250
-1 775
92
-3 871
-14 458
-10 760
-14 099
-10 999
Less developed regions,

excluding China
-5 043
-6 210
-5 438
-7 194
-11 068
-13 535
-15 316
-15 107
Note: Figures are in thousands. Positive numbers imply net immigration, negative ones net emigration.
Source: UN 2011
Figure 1.3 Change in population density, 19902005
Change in density
Number of people per 1o grid cell

Marginal to significant decline
(-315-0.00976)
Marginal decline to marginal increase
(-0.009760.11)
Increase
(0.113.75)
Considerable increase
(3.761 531)
population growth; rather at the national scale, it is linked to

the international demand for agricultural products and timber
harvesting for urban consumption (DeFries et al. 2010).
The world is nearly evenly divided between rural and urban
inhabitants. One half includes rural food producers with
a direct impact on land in space and time. Their effect on
forests is particularly acute and widespread following ruralrural migration and the associated conversion of forests to
agricultural land. This very small minority of all migrants is
responsible for a significant proportion of tropical deforestation
yet remains very little researched (Carr 2009). From a drivers
perspective, it is also much more difficult to manage this
phenomenon due to the scale and diffuse nature of the activity.
The second type is the burgeoning urban population who are
concentrated in space but whose impacts on the land are
indirect albeit significant.
A rising human population has also been identified as the
principal root cause of the water crisis (UNEP 2006). Overall,
humans use more than a quarter of terrestrial evapotranspiration
for growing crops and more than half of accessible water run-off
(Postel et al. 1996). While climate change is making some places
wetter (Clark and Aide 2011), much of Africa and the Middle
East currently suffer a water scarcity that is worsening with the
expanding populations (Sowers et al. 2010). Population growth
has also been implicated in water scarcity in rapidly developing
countries such as China, where urban growth has exacerbated
a decline in the availability of clean water by overwhelming
the water supply and sanitation infrastructure (Jiang 2009).
Source: CIESIN and CIAT 2005
Population is not the only problem: groundwater use is highly

inequitable, for example in India where 10 per cent of large
farms consume 90 per cent of groundwater (Aguilar 2011;
Kumar et al. 1998). Nor is a thirsty populace the only outcome.
In the Republic of Tanzania, a diverse series of drivers, including
population growth, has led to water conflicts (Mbonile 2005).
Water scarcity can also provoke migration, as documented
throughout Africa (Mwangombe et al. 2011; Grote and Warner
2010; Mbonile 2005).
Addressing population as a driver of global environmental
change, households can be considered as units for analysing
consumption patterns (Jiang and Hardee 2009; UNFPA 2008;
Liu et al. 2003; MacKellar et al. 1995). In the developed world,
household size is shrinking as their composition changes
from extended families to nuclear ones (Bongaarts 2001).
As a consequence, the rise in the number of households
has been faster than population growth (Liu et al. 2003).
Research suggests that this can cause double the rise in energy
consumption that would occur from population growth alone
(MacKellar et al. 1995), as there is an increase in the number
of appliances and the level of electricity consumed per person
(Zhou et al. 2011). Larger households generally use less energy
per person than small ones, conforming to the expectations of
economies of scale (ONeill et al. 2001; Ironmonger et al. 1995).
The age composition of a household also has an impact on
energy consumption, Lenzen et al. (2006), working with data
from Australia, Brazil, Denmark, India and Japan, found that
the residents average age is positively related with per-person
energy consumption, while household size and urban location
Drivers
are negatively associated. Transport, too, is likely to be more

sensitive to the number of households, since an increase in
the number of homes occurs primarily in low-density suburban
landscapes (Seto et al. 2010), resulting in more passenger
vehicles and more commuting, which add to petrol consumption
and pollution.
Beyond the household unit, studies also identify impacts
associated with absolute population size. A study of Californian
counties found that population size significantly contributes
to increases in nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide emissions
(Cramer 1998). Similarly, researchers have observed a positive
relationship between population size and CO2 emissions (Cole
and Neumayer 2004; Mackellar et al. 1995; Bongaarts 1992),
with an inverted U-shaped curve relation for sulphur dioxide
(Cole and Neumayer 2004). How households and populations
impact ecosystems is highly dependent on the stage of
development, the geographic scale and the ecosystem itself,
which is discussed further in Chapters 26.
Economic development
Consumption and production are both components of

economic development and, like population, have a multiplier
effect on environmental pressures. While consumption and
production are technically separate socio-economic drivers,
they are so inextricably linked that it is difficult to discuss them
independently: the consumption of raw materials by the primary
industries of mining and forestry leads to the manufacture of
products that are in turn consumed by individual customers.
Quantity
The production of goods for consumption requires materials
minerals, water, food, fibre and energy. During the 20th
century, global economic output grew more than 20-fold, while
materials extraction grew to almost 60 billion tonnes per year
(Maddison 2009). This level of materials consumed by the human
population is of the same scale as major global material flows in
ecosystems, such as the amount of biomass produced annually
by green plants (Krausmann et al. 2009; UNEP 2009b).
Consumption and production trends appear to have stabilized
in developed countries, while in emerging economies such
as Brazil, China, India, and Mexico, per-person resource use
and associated environmental impacts have increased since
2000 (SERI 2008), and the less developed countries are just
beginning the transition towards higher consumption levels.
Should global economic development continue in a businessas-usual mode and population projections persist through
2050, another sharp rise in the level of global resource use
is likely (Krausmann et al. 2009; SERI 2008).
Over the period 19702010, average global growth rates in
GDP per person measured in purchasing power parity (ppp)
fluctuated between -2 and 5 per cent annually; the average was
about 3.1 per cent (World Bank 2011a). Since 2001, however,
China has grown at 10 per cent per year, a seven-year doubling
time, and India at 8 per cent per year, a nine-year doubling time,
with environmental pressures increasing at much the same
pace. As a result, China is now the worlds largest emitter of
Figure 1.4 Change in economic output, 19902005
Change in output
o
US$ per 1 grid cell
Marginal to significant decline

(-100-11.112)
Marginal decline to marginal increase
(-11.11142.482)
Increase
(42.48380.861)
Considerable increase
(80.8622 397)
Note: The change in economic output aggregated across all
cells within a countrys borders equates to the change in GDP.
10
Source: Nordhaus et al. 2008
Box 1.2 Expressing prosperity beyond GDP

Within the traditional accounting framework for benchmarking
economic performance, a considerable amount of natures
capital and services is externalized (excluded), thereby
ignoring key environmental pressures and the forces driving
them. Including those pressures requires alternative metrics
to GDP and related benchmarks. Such alternatives can be
measured in either monetary or physical units.
An alternative monetary approach seeks to maintain the
traditional accounting framework and its reliance on market
transactions, but augments it by internalizing (including)
environmental costs and pressures. A common approach for
accomplishing this is to assign market values to natures assets
and services with the goal of taking full account of both market
and non-market costs and benefits (Abraham and Mackie
2005; NRC 2004, 1994; Nordhaus and Kokkelenberg 1999), a
procedure that was first attempted by Costanza et al. in 1997.
An alternative physical approach, stemming from the industrial
metabolism or industrial ecology tradition, seeks to identify
the rates and volumes of material flows through the economy.
A system such as material flow accounting (MFA) is presumed
to reveal more accurately the pressures on resources and the
undesirable impacts on the environment from any part of the
life cycle of resources from extraction through combustion
or conversion into a usable commodity and consumer
consumption, to recycling, disposal or stewardship.
Two leading indicators are used to chart trends in global,
national and urban material flows:
total material extraction per unit of GDP; and
metabolic rates the amount of resource use per person.
During the 20th century, total material extraction increased
from 7 billion tonnes to almost 60 billion, while GDP increased
by a factor of 24 (Krausmann et al. 2009). Over the same
period per-person resource use doubled from 4.6 tonnes to
around 9 tonnes, while per person income increased by a
factor of seven (UNEP 2011a; Krausmann et al. 2009). At the
same time, resource prices were declining or stagnant. Taken
greenhouse gases per year and, since 2010, its economy is

second in size only to the United States (World Bank 2011a).
Much of Chinas economic growth has come from its expansion
in manufacturing, both for domestic markets and for export. By
comparison, the average growth rate is negative for sub-Saharan
Africa and less than 1 per cent for the Middle East and North
Africa, although Figure 1.4 shows considerable variation across
these regions. In addition, since 1995, Russias annual growth
rate has fluctuated between -7.8 per cent and 10.0 per cent, with
an average of 3.3 per cent (World Bank 2011c).
together, these data indicate that resource decoupling or

dematerialization, both in the aggregate and on a per-person
basis, took place during the 20th century. Since there were
no overarching policies specifically devoted to decoupling
during the period, it appears that it took place spontaneously,
perhaps due to forces within the global economic system.
However, there is a clear need for further research to identify
the responsible factors.
A more serious challenge due to limitations in the available
data is determining whether material use is increasing or
decreasing on a country-by-country basis. In a productionbased system of accounts, environmental pressure is allocated
to the country where the pressure occurs, while a consumptionbased system allocates the pressure to the country where a
product is finally consumed.
Furthermore, trade accounts only measure the weight of
traded commodities entering a country, ignoring hidden or
indirect flows materials that are extracted or moved but
are not traded directly. Finally, industrialized countries tend
to be material importers while developing countries tend to
be exporters. Due to these data limitations and patterns, the
resource intensity of the advanced countries may be grossly
understated because their high resource use is actually
happening in exporting countries (Caldeira and Davis 2011).
These data limitations may account for the finding that, with
the same standard of living, more densely populated areas
and regions consume fewer resources per person than do less
densely populated ones (Lenzen et al. 2006; Larivire and
Lafrance 1999; Kenworthy and Laube 1996). The difference
is even more pronounced when comparing industrialized
high-density areas with low-density ones. Since high-density
areas are nearly equivalent to urbanization, these areas not
the hinterland are the hub of international trade where
goods and services are received, while the resource intensity
and environmental impacts are felt elsewhere as resource
extraction typically takes place in areas of low population
(Rosa and Dietz 2009).
It is difficult to project economic growth: during the 1980s and

1990s the Republic of Korea experienced growth spurts at rates
similar to Chinas and Indias recent ones, before slowing to
more moderate rates (World Bank 2011b). Using the concept
of an ecological footprint, which aggregates all environmental
pressures into a measure of hypothetical land required to meet
current rates of resource use (Wackernagel et al. 2002, 1999),
China and India are expected to appropriate 37 per cent of the
projected increase in global footprint over the period 20012015
unless they are able to improve their production efficiency
annually by 2.9 and 2.2 per cent, respectively (Dietz et al. 2007).
Drivers
11
The environmental Kuznets curve (Figure 1.5) (Grossman and

Krueger 1995) suggested that as countries become more affluent,
concern about the environment increases, leading to policies that
protect it. At the same time, preferences shift away from the most
environmentally damaging goods and services.
This theory has been extensively examined (Carson 2010; Mol
2010; York et al. 2010; Aslanidis and Iranzo 2009; Galeotti et
al. 2009; Jalil and Mahmud 2009; Lee et al. 2009; Roberts and
Grimes 1997) and while debate continues, there seems to be
clear evidence that some companies and industrial sectors have
reduced their environmental impact, as the theory predicts.
However, there are many obstacles to a shift towards more
environmentally benign technologies: in some cases, these are
economic challenges as environmentally sound technologies
often have higher overall costs. But in many cases, simple
cost/benefit calculations are not sufficient to explain the slow
pace of growth in new technologies. For example, although
researchers have noted the energy efficiency gap for years
(Jaffe and Stavins 1994), neither consumers nor industry have
made significant investments in closing that gap despite the
potentially favourable returns in energy costs saved, particularly
when life-cycle costing is applied.
On the other hand, technological change that improves resource
efficiency can have a perverse environmental effect by decreasing
the costs of resource use and thus increasing demand. If
the increased demand is greater than the efficiency gains,
the overall consumption of a resource can actually increase,
with concomitant increases in environmental impact. This
phenomenon is known as the Jevons paradox or the rebound
effect (Polimeni and Polimeni 2006; York 2006). The choice of
technology, which is shaped by economic factors and individual
and public decisions, is critical in determining the overall human
impact on the environment. Research to explain the obstacles to
12
Env
iron
men
tal
deg
rad
ati
on
Turning point
nt
eme
prov
l im
nta
me
on
vir
En
Quality
Technology is a key factor in the production of goods and
services and an important one in terms of environmental
impact. It has been argued that over time, factors of intensity
or quality, affected by technological innovation, may more than
compensate for the adverse effects of the rise in population,
so that economic growth eventually leads to environmental
improvements. An example of this is greenhouse gas emission
rates in developed countries since 1970, where, it is claimed,
emissions increased more slowly than economic activity
because of shifts towards technologies that have a lower
environmental impact (Bruvoll and Medin 2003; Hamilton and
Turton 2002). However, it is not certain whether other sectors
were so successful efforts to reduce deforestation at the
national level might have shown domestic improvement, but
demand may have driven increased deforestation in other
countries (Meyfroidt and Lambin 2009).
Figure 1.5 A simple interpretation of the

environmental Kuznets curve
Environmental degradation
Whether these growth rates are realistic when put in the context
of the Earth Systems biophysical boundaries remains to be seen
(Chapter 7) (Rockstrm et al. 2009).
Income per person
adopting more environmentally benign, cost-effective technology

is just beginning. One key factor, at least for households, is
unfamiliarity with life-cycle costing and a lack of understanding
of the energy and cost impacts of commonly used technologies
(Attari et al. 2010; Carrico et al. 2009), and it appears that the
same factors may also affect organizational decision making.
Values
It is commonplace to identify values as a key driver of
environmental change. At one level, the argument is
straightforward: human decisions, especially about
consumption, are influenced by values and those decisions
have impacts on the environment. However, research on human
decision making notes that values are only one element in
the cognitive processes, with beliefs and norms also of great
importance (Stern 2011). While some decisions reflect a formal
weighing of values and beliefs, many are made without much
reflection, on the basis of normative expectations, emotions
and interpretations of symbols or quick judgements (Kahneman
2003; Jaeger et al. 2001).
There is a voluminous canon of literature exploring the social
psychology of environmental decision making, in which several
generalizations can be discerned (Carrico et al. 2011; Schultz
and Kaiser 2011; Stern 2011; Stern et al. 2010). First, no single
factor is sufficient to explain such decisions. Values, beliefs and
norms, and trust in others who must also take action or who are
providing information, all matter. Second, decisions are often
context-specific in the sense that individuals read the context,
such as whether to emphasize a gain or a loss, and frame the
decision based on that reading. Sometimes individuals act as
consumers, sometimes as members of a community, sometimes
as citizens. Third, social networks are of immense importance
in providing context as well as shaping values, beliefs, norms,

trust and other significant factors (Henry 2009; Jackson and Yariv
2007). Fourth, values, beliefs, norms, trust and other individual
characteristics interact with the character of the action to be
taken in shaping behaviour for example, social psychological
factors may matter little when a pro-environmental action is
exceptionally easy or hard to undertake, but may be critical for
actions of intermediate difficulty (Guagnano et al. 1995).
Social psychology has developed many concepts to explain
the factors underlying environmental decision making. Among
these, values have been explored the most thoroughly and tested
empirically across many national contexts (Dietz et al. 2005).
In particular, altruism towards other humans, other species
and the biosphere has consistently been found to predict proenvironmental attitudes and behaviour. In addition, a willingness
to cooperate with others in experimental games, conducted in
both laboratory and field settings, varies considerably across
individuals and cultures (Henrich et al. 2010, 2005). Recently, the
propensity to cooperate has been shown to matter in managing
forest commons (Rustagi et al. 2010; Vollan and Ostrom 2010),
with a substantial amount of literature showing the importance
of trust in commons dilemmas (Fehr 2009). However, research on
trust has not yet been linked to the larger literature on values.
Consumer surveys have revealed a range of reasons why an

individual is unwilling to pay more for an environmentally
sensitive product (WBCSD 2010). The top three reasons
involve poor understanding of, or apathy towards, the negative
environmental impacts of consumption decisions, while the
fourth most common was whether the individual viewed an action
as common practice among their peers. This last point reveals the
importance of societal pressure on values and by extension how
decisions that impact the environment are influenced by it.
Diets
With economic growth comes a change in dietary intensity, which
Popkin (2002) describes as the nutrition transition. This happens
in three states: decreased occurrence of famine with rising
incomes; the emergence of chronic diet-related diseases due to
changes in activity and food consumption patterns; and a stage
of behavioural change where diet and activity levels are better
managed for prolonged healthier lives.
The growth in food consumption and related requirements for
animal feed largely determine the pace at which supplies need
to grow to keep up with the domestic and export demand for
agricultural goods. Urbanization, demographic change and
household wealth in a number of fast-evolving regions Brazil,
Figure 1.6 Change in meat supply by region, 19602007

Decadal change, million tonnes per year
6
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
2000-2007
1990-2000
-1
Africa
Americas
Asia
Europe exhibited a significant decline in its meat supply between 1990 and 1999
due to the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the early 1990s.
Europe
Oceania
World
Source: FAOSTAT 2010
Drivers
13
China, India and Indonesia suggest that changes in food

consumption patterns are likely to have profound effects on
regional food systems (Satterthwaite et al. 2010). These changes
in consumption and consumption preferences introduce increased
pressures on food and energy systems from the demand side,
which forces compensating adjustments to take place on the
supply side through market-mediated, price-driven interactions
with producers.
As regional economies continue to grow, so, too, does the
consumption and production of of meat (Figure 1.6). Livestock
production is the largest anthropogenic land use, accounting for
30 per cent of the land surface of the globe and 70 per cent of
all agricultural land; 33 per cent of total arable land is used for
producing animal feed (Steinfeld et al. 2006). Pelletier and Tyedmers
(2010) suggest that, by 2050, the livestock sector alone may
occupy the majority of, or significantly overshoot, recent estimates
of humanitys biophysical limits within three environmental
areas: climate change, reactive nitrogen mobilization, and
appropriation of plant biomass at planetary scales.
As urban areas are generally wealthier than rural ones, there
are considerable differences in dietary composition, with
urban diets characterized by higher levels of meat, dairy and
vegetable oil. These foods are often imported and require more
energy-intensive production (de Haen et al. 2003; Popkin 2001).
Globalization and urbanization are cited as causing dietary
convergence and adaptation. The former refers to the focusing
of caloric intake on a smaller number of staple crops, such as
wheat, rice and maize, with concomitant health impacts. Dietary
adaptation is characterized by a greater reliance on processed
foods due to lifestyle changes, greater exposure to advertising
and time constraints on food preparation. This concentration of
consumption also favours the concentration of the food supply
chain among a relatively small number of corporations, with an
implicit preference for supermarkets and larger-scale agricultural
production (Kennedy et al. 2005).
water scarcity due to a dwindling supply as well as to industrial

pollution; the World Bank (2006) estimates that up to a third of
water scarcity in China is due to pollution, the cost of which is
equivalent to 13 per cent of GDP.
THE DRIVER-PRESSURE CONTINUUM
As population and economic development have continued to grow

despite depressions and downturns, technological innovations
have enhanced the integration of communities and societies
into a global civilization. Technological advances in energy and
transport continually generate new opportunities for growth
in production and consumption, while ingenuity applied to
communication and mobility has created new goods and services
that previous generations could not have imagined. The growth
and integration of human settlements, societies and relationships
is evidenced by rapid urbanization and globalization.
Energy
Quantity
As the world population increases, more people aspire to higher
material living standards creating an ever greater demand for
goods and services as well as for the energy required to provide
these. From 1992 until 2008, per-person energy consumption
increased at a rate of 5 per cent annually. In 2009 total global
energy use decreased for the first time in 30 years by 2.2 per cent
as a result of the financial and economic crisis (Enerdata2011);
half of this occurred in the OECD countries (IEA 2011). Oil,
natural gas and nuclear power consumption all decreased while
hydroelectric and renewable energy consumption increased. Coal
was the only energy source that was not affected. Primary energy
consumption in 2010 is estimated to have risen by 4.7 per cent
worldwide, easily surpassing the minor reduction in 2009. The
rate of growth in the future, however, is expected to decrease
due to an assumed levelling of population growth and continued
improvements in energy efficiency (IEA2011).
Energy-water nexus
Another important dynamic of consumption is the trade-off
between energy and water consumption. This dynamic is
important for both energy production and agriculture. GerbensLeenes et al. (2009) estimate that 6080 per cent of water used
globally is dedicated to irrigation, rising to nearly 90 per cent
in some low-rainfall areas. In addition, energy use for irrigation
can be significant. In India, where the government often heavily
subsidizes water pumping, 1520 per cent of electricity is used
for this purpose (Shah et al. 2004). Energy use for agriculture
is considerable in both developed and developing countries,
although in developed countries the energy used for processing
and transporting food can be twice that of the entire agricultural
production sector (Bazilian et al. 2011).
Water can also be an important resource for energy production
and mineral extraction. However, freshwater pollution is a
common side effect of mining, including recent hydraulic
fracturing activities (Scott et al. 2011). China suffers from
14
By 2030, more than 55 per cent of the population of Asia will be urban.
UN Photo/Klbae Park
The shares of energy inputs are likely to change, with the

proportion produced from oil decreasing and natural gas
increasing. Coal levels are expected to stay relatively constant
and nuclear energy use will increase due to investments in Asia.
However, with potential policy changes following the Fukushima
disaster in 2011, it is difficult to predict the growth trajectory of
nuclear power. If nuclear energy plans are not followed through,
more coal is likely to be used, with significant implications
for climate change mitigation efforts (IEA 2011). Developing
regions show a particularly strong increase in per-person energy
consumption between 2005 and 2010, although, as of 2010, this
seems to be levelling off. The three major economic sectors in
terms of energy consumption (IEA 2011) are:
manufacturing: 33 per cent;
households: 29 per cent;
transport: 26 per cent.
Electricity and heat generation account for more than 40 per cent
of all CO2 emissions (IEA2010). Between 1992 and 2008, the
annual rise in CO2 emissions of more than 3 per cent and the
total rise of 66 per cent a much greater increase than that of
the global population was primarily the result of growth in
industrial production, as well as higher living standards in many
developing countries.
On a per-person basis, the largest growth in electricity production
occurred in the developed countries, increasing from 8.3 megawatt
hours (MWh) in 1992 to nearly 10 MWh in 2008, a difference of
1.7 MWh per person (IEA 2010), though in percentage terms this
was the smallest rise at 22 per cent. The global average per-person
electricity production grew by 33 per cent, from 2.2 MWh in 1992
to 3.0 MWh in 2008, while that of developing countries grew by
68 per cent, from 1 MWh to 1.7 MWh (IEA 2010).
In 2010, 1.44 billion people globally around 20 per cent of
the world population were still suffering from energy poverty,
without access to reliable electricity or the power grid, and entirely
dependent on biomass for cooking and lighting (UNEP 2011b).
The energy commodity that dominates trade volume and value
is crude oil, with China continuing to rival the United States in
terms of consumption (EIA 2010). The Middle East accounts
for about half of all global oil trade (IEA 2008). Coal production
increased by 35 per cent per year during 20052009, with
China experiencing a 16 per cent increase in production during
20082009 and reaching 44 per cent of the worlds total coal
production of 3.05 billion tonnes. With rapidly increasing energy
demand, however, China became a net importer of coal for the
first time in 2007 (Kahrl and Roland-Holst 2008). The United
States is the second largest producer of coal at 975 million
tonnes per year, followed by India producing 566 million tonnes.
Quality
Renewable energy production is gaining much attention: the
amount of energy produced from renewable sources, including
sun, wind, water and wood, amounted to 13 per cent of the
world supply in 2008, and estimates suggest 16 per cent in 2010
Emissions from a coal-fired power plant rise into the atmosphere.

istock/Sasha Radosavljevic
(REN21 2011). However, the largest renewable source is biomass

at 10 per cent, with nearly two-thirds of that used in cooking
and heating in developing countries (IPCC 2011). Thus, when
biomass is excluded, other renewable sources provide only
about 3 per cent of world energy.
There has been a 300 per cent rise in solar energy supply since
1992, a 60 per cent increase in wind energy and a 35 per cent
rise in biofuel production, all from very low bases. This is mainly
due to the decreasing cost of these technologies and the 2010
adoption by 199 countries of policies to promote renewable
energy (REN21 2011).
There has been a rapid rise in the production of biomass-based
fuels for transport from maize, sugar cane, oil palm and
rapeseed. While ethanol has been widely used in Brazil for two
decades, its use accelerated globally at the end of the 1990s,
increasing by 20 per cent each year to reach 30 million tonnes
of oil equivalent in 2009. In the early years of the 21st century,
biodiesel became available, with production growing at around
60 per cent per year, reaching nearly 13 million tonnes of oil
equivalent in 2009. However, recent information on biofuel
production raises concerns about the direct environmental and
social impacts of land clearance and conversion, the introduction
of potentially invasive species, the overuse of water and the
consequences for the global food market. An additional cause
for concern is the purchase or leasing of land by wealthier
nations to produce food and biofuels typically in developing
and sometimes semi-arid countries. This trend may have serious
impacts on fossil and renewable water resources, as well as on
local food security (UNEP 2009a).
Drivers
15
Investment in greening the energy sector is setting new records,

totalling US$211 billion in 2010, up 32 per cent from 2009, and
nearly five and a half times the 2004 figure. For the first time, new
investment in utility-scale renewable energy projects in developing
countries surpassed that of developed economies (UNEP 2011c).
The number of nuclear power plants, seen by some as an
opportunity to meet the growing demand for energy, has
increased by more than 20 per cent since 1992, rising to 435 by
mid-2012. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA 2008), in the 30 countries that have nuclear power, the
share of electricity generated ranges from 78 per cent in France
to 2 per cent in China, which has 14 operational plants, 25
under construction and more planned (WNA 2011a). Since 1992,
energy production from nuclear sources has grown by almost
30 per cent, although the share of nuclear power in the total
supply has fallen from 17.5 per cent in 1992 to 13.5 per cent in
2008. Today, around the world, 60 plants are under construction,
155 planned and 339 proposed (WNA 2011b).
Global energy consumption is expected to continue to grow.
Though Chinas energy intensity decreased by 66 per cent
between 1980 and 2002 (IEA 2008; Polimeni and Polimeni
2006), Indias energy use per unit of GDP remained relatively
constant over the same period and, due to its growing economy,
the country is expected to contribute 8 per cent of the worlds
projected growth in emissions by 2030 (World Bank 2008).
If the international community continues to have difficulty in
addressing climate change in the near future, temperatures
could increase by 3.56oC by the end of the century (IEA 2011).
To stem the rise in global GHG emissions, the Kyoto Protocol
encouraged the transfer of clean technologies from developed
to developing economies. Trade was assumed to be the means
of distributing these technologies, but without a significant
reduction in existing trade barriers, this route will have limited
impact (World Bank 2008).
Serious inequities remain in meeting global demand for access
to energy. Today, 1.3 billion people are lacking electricity and
2.7 billion people still rely on the traditional use of biomass for
food preparation, with concomitant impacts on deforestation
rates, soil erosion and human health (IEA 2011). The reliance
on fuelwood also has a demographic aspect, as per-person
fuelwood consumption is shown to increase with decreasing
household size but to decrease with urbanization, indicating
a wealth effect (Knight and Rosa 2011). In order to achieve
universal access to primary energy by 2030, an annual
investment of US$48 billion is needed (IEA 2011).
Transport
Quantity
Transport serves people, production and consumption and is
an important facilitator of trade. The global economy is currently
recovering from a severe recession, with global industrial
production and trade climbing back to pre-crisis levels, albeit
with marked geographic differences: GDP is growing fastest in
China, by 10.3 per cent per year, and India, by 9.7 per cent. Data
16
published by Global Insight (2010) suggest that in the next

40 years Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRIC countries) will
start to approach the United States in terms of GDP, surpassing
Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy, with the distinct
possibility that China will have the worlds highest GDP by 2050.
This unequal growth has implications for world trade and the flow
of goods, posing considerable challenges and opportunities in
terms of logistics and supply chains.
Countries and entire regions appear to be specializing in their
attempts to become competitive, creating even greater demand
for transport. For instance, Europe, the United States, Canada
and Japan are dependent on fruit exports from Central and
South America, some Western European countries, many Eastern
European countries, and portions of Africa. Similar differential
production-consumption trends happen with all products,
pushing the demand for transport even higher and making freight
inelastic to fuel prices. An evolving trend to manage this ever
increasing world trade is containerization, which by many in the
industry is considered a major revolution in handling goods,
using larger ships to achieve economies of scale. It is estimated
that 80 to 90 per cent of world trade is by sea (UNCTAD 2011).
In the United States, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics
(BTS 2011) reports that container trade in 2005 and 2006 was
double that of the previous decade, increasing to 46.3 million
20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs, 1943 cubic metres). At the
global scale, container trade tripled during the same period.
The European Union (EU), the worlds largest trading bloc,
carries out 90 per cent of its external trade and 40 per cent of
its internal trade by sea, totalling 3.5 billion tonnes (Reynaud
2009; Goulias 2008). However, studies in major ports show
that any environmental benefits of seafaring cargo require
significant attention at the place of loading and unloading. The
Port of Los Angeles in California, a major hub, has, for example,
implemented a variety of policies including the introduction
of cleaner trucks with refuelling stations for natural gas,
performance standards for cargo handlers and harbour craft,
modernized and cleaner rail locomotives, and reduced vessel
speeds (Port of Los Angeles 2010).
After a slump in 2008 and 2009, air freight began to return to
its pre-economic-crisis levels, with annual international growth
of 21 per cent in 2010, although 2011 growth is expected to be
heavily dependent on consumer spending (IATA 2011). Data from
the International Transport Forum (ITF) show some recovery for
rail freight but it is still suffering from the economic crisis with
unknown implications for the long term; exceptionally, India
continues to increase its rail freight. Similarly, recovery of road
freight is very slow at the national and international levels for
many OECD and ITF countries.
For passenger travel China, India and Brazil recorded 7.1 per cent
growth in 2010 relative to 2009. According to the International
Air Transport Association, there were 2.4 billion domestic and
international passengers in 2010, approximately 6.4 per cent more
than ever before, with a similar trend observed in passenger
In 2011, the Beijing rapid transit subway system delivered over 2.18 billion rides. Niclas Mkel
kilometres travelled. Rail passenger travel continued to decline,

providing space for possible substitution by freight. Data on
passenger kilometres travelled in private cars suffers poor
harmonization, yet it is clear that the economic crisis reduced
overall travel. Moreover, possible saturation of passenger travel
by car is observed in developed economies that exhibit nonsignificant increases in passenger kilometres, hovering at around
one digit percentage growth per year.
Quality
While transport enables human interactions that contribute to
development, the infrastructure for fast, motorized means of
travel also creates displacement and barriers that can divide
communities and reduce well-being. Roads and the enormous
amount of parking to store the worlds 1 billion cars are the
commonest barriers, but airports and seaports for container
ships are also significant.
Most energy for transport comes from fossil fuels, and the rise
of the car has produced various specific environmental impacts,
from urban health problems through land and water degradation
to contributing to climate change. Many people are optimistic
about the long-term prospects for shifting to cars powered by fuel
cells and electric motors, but a near-term change will be difficult,
and the car is noticeably more intensive in its environmental
impacts than its competitor technologies, exhibiting the highest
levels of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions
(Chester and Horvath 2009). Private car ownership can also
impact patterns of urbanization by permitting dispersed and
low-density sprawl, which in many contexts reflects individual
household dissatisfaction with urban environments, but
collectively degrades environmental quality. Like the transport
infrastructure that makes them possible, these new or expanded
built areas impinge on natural landscapes and amplify the direct
environmental impacts of transport.
In societies with extremely high levels of mobility, inequities

in the social distribution of related environmental pressures
and benefits are of increasing concern (Adams 1999). Because
most human settlements are located close to supplies of water
and agricultural land, transport infrastructure displaces food
production while also fragmenting landscapes that are then
less able to support wildlife (Huijser et al. 2008). Transport
also has secondary environmental impacts through expanded
human access to land, as the infrastructure promotes
economic activities such as mining, forestry or power
generation in new locations. In addition, transport enables
more extensive permanent human settlement, particularly
suburban and urban growth.
There may have been a temporary decrease in transport activity

in, for example, the United Kingdom and United States due to
the economic recession (Millard-Ball and Schipper 2011; Metz
2010). However, these declines are likely to be outweighed by
increases in private vehicle ownership in rapidly developing
low- and middle-income nations. At present, the number of motor
vehicles in the world is growing much faster than the number
of people. While it is unlikely that the levels of hypermobility
reached in the United States will ever be reached in many other
nations, there is still massive potential for growth in the level
of travel and shifts towards individual motorized vehicles,
especially as incomes increase. In developing nations including
China and India, the ownership and use of highly polluting
Drivers
17
the built environment whether residential and commercial

buildings or transport infrastructure. Beijing and Shanghais
rapid economic growth, for example, has been accompanied
by a decrease in the proportion of emissions due to industrial
activities since 1985. With the increase in personal vehicle
ownership, however, emissions from transport have increased
significantly, sevenfold for Beijing and eightfold for Shanghai
between 1985 and 2006 (Dhakal 2009). This increase may,
in part, have been offset by an energy-efficiency labelling
programme implemented by the Chinese government, credited
with avoiding 1.4 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions for 2005
2010 (Zhan et al. 2011).
In general, urban populations in developing countries generate
higher greenhouse gas emissions per person than surrounding
rural populations, while the opposite is true for developed
countries (Dhakal 2010). Energy consumption in urban areas,
much like food consumption, can be far removed from where
environmental impacts occur, with populations remaining
oblivious of the greenhouse gas and water pollution impacts
of their consumption (Scott et al. 2011).
The worldwide motor-vehicle industry now produces more than

137000 cars a day. Josemoraes/iStock
motorcycles is increasing faster than cars (Pucher et al. 2007).

Even when more fuel-efficient vehicles are introduced, rising
numbers may outweigh efficiency benefits.
However, with aggressive moves by governments and
advocacy groups in the creation of green markets, two related
phenomena could emerge. The first is an offset trade market
in which companies can buy offsets, as futures and options,
to counterbalance their inability to manage and decrease CO2
production (Lequet and Bellasen 2008). The second is an attempt
to develop carbon-neutral supply chains in which the amount
of CO2 produced is offset by a variety of mitigating actions that
include partnerships with the local supply chains. From a policy
perspective, these could deliver some development benefit by
encouraging small local producers to partner with multinational
companies, helping reach carbon neutrality. Similarly, new
markets are developing around a lifestyle based on promoting
health, the environment, social justice, personal justice
and sustainable living. Such developments offer new policy
opportunities for more sustainable development worldwide that
incorporates green transport policies across all sectors.
Urbanization
Quantity
Urbanization exhibits complex interactions with food, discussed
earlier, and energy. Urban areas, which house half the worlds
population, utilize two-thirds of global energy and produce
70 per cent of global carbon emissions (IEA 2008). The amount
of energy an urban area consumes is largely dependent on
18
Due to the links between them, it is difficult to reliably project

rates of spatial expansion in urban areas without accurate
projections of population growth and GDP. The challenge is
magnified by recent research suggesting that the relationship
between these three factors can vary significantly across regions.
Assessing changing urban spatial spread using satellites shows
urban areas to be growing at an average rate of 37 per cent per
year, with China exhibiting the highest rates. The contribution
of population and GDP growth to this expansion has been found
to be 28 and 72 per cent respectively for North America and 23
and 30 per cent respectively for India. In the same study, African
city growth showed no relationship to GDP, although there is a
recognition that in many developing countries there is significant
informal economic activity that is not captured by GDP statistics
(Seto et al. 2010).
In terms of the spatial distribution of people in growing cities,
the defining feature, perhaps most common in East Asia, is
peripheral development (Seto et al. 2010). Quantifying this
phenomenon using satellite imagery for 2000 shows a range
of estimates of the total spatial spread of urban areas of
0.22.4 per cent of the terrestrial land surface, due partially to
differing definitions of urban land cover (Potere and Schneider
2007). In developed countries such as the United States and
Canada, about half the urban population lives in suburbs, while
in the developing world squatter settlements or slums host more
than one-third of urban populations (UN-Habitat 2003).
The spatial distribution of cities demonstrates the complex
interactions between urbanization and transport. For instance,
when comparing per-person greenhouse gas emissions,
Bangkok is dominated by transport emissions, while New
York and London have significantly larger contributions from
residential and commercial buildings (Croci et al. 2011).
The ability to travel within a city is extremely important
both in terms of the environmental impact and of economic

productivity (Bertaud et al. 2011). In developing countries
the majority of trips are taken by commuters but, as incomes
increase, individuals are likely to make more personal trips.
This preference often precipitates the acquisition of personal
vehicles, as the locations of shopping or entertainment
centres, schools or hospitals are widely spread and less easily
connected by a public transport system (Bertaud et al. 2011).
Finally, the type of fuel used is an important factor affecting the
environmental impact of urban areas. Many trains already run
on electricity, but should electric vehicle use increase, more
electricity will be needed and unless energy sources are priced
according to their carbon intensity an increase in electricity
production using coal is likely, leading to significant increases
in greenhouse gas emissions (Bertaud et al. 2011).
Quality
Cities have been seen as an opportunity for developing more
sustainable resource management and reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. While per-person emissions are generally lower in the
cities of developed countries than in surrounding rural areas, the
sources are much more diffuse and therefore difficult to manage
with one overarching policy tool (Bertaud et al. 2011). Beyond
mitigation activities, cities, particularly in developing countries,
need to evolve adaptation measures (World Bank 2011d).
Several cities across South America, Africa and Asia have
shown significant leadership in developing innovative
adaptation strategies (Heinrichs et al. 2011).
Developing cities are being encouraged to achieve zero waste,
the principles of which include a reduction in waste incineration,
the recycling of greater volumes of paper and plastics and the

mining of precious metals and rare earth elements from existing
landfills (Zaman and Lehmann 2011).
The question remains whether the Earth can support several
billion additional people with a direct impact on land through
subsistence farming, or additional urban billions with indirect
impacts through consumer demand for fats and proteins from
meats that are mostly produced on large corporate farms. The
answer to this question will ultimately reveal how much land
will be converted to livestock rearing, feedstock production
and agriculture. Not evident in the short term is whether an
accelerated or delayed demographic transition is more or less
taxing on land systems. But if the living standards of the poorest
are raised to more equitably match those of the developed
world, then population growth should slow and the related
environmental impact should begin to diminish. Demographic
and health transitions will continue to be major predictors of
environmental change in general and of land-use and land-cover
change in particular. Fundamental to facilitating demographic
and health transitions will be investments in maternal and child
health and education.
Globalization
Quantity
Trade in food, fuels and minerals has increased dramatically
over recent decades and shows few signs of slowing.
International trade has grown rapidly since 1990, by 12 per cent
per year, doubling in six years (Figure 1.7) (Peters et al. 2011).
In addition, annual emissions from exports have grown at
4.3 per cent, often due to production moving from developed
Figure 1.7 Growth in population, GDP, trade and CO2 emissions, 19902008
Change, %
350
Net emission transfers

from developed to
developing countries
300
250
International trade
200
150
Emissions embedded
in trade
GDP
Global fossil fuel CO2
emissions
Population
100
50
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2008
Source: Peters et al. 2011
Drivers
19
2007, for example, 812 per cent of Chinas CO2 emissions were
attributable to exports to the United States (Xu et al. 2009).
Quality
Globalization is confounding the expected effect of the
environmental Kuznets curve in countries with emerging
economies. With affluence should come improvement in
environmental conditions, but the link is proving difficult to
confirm. In the case of China, nitrogen oxides and sulphur
dioxide emissions have shown a complicated relationship with
increasing income, suggesting that the reliance on coal-fired
power may be negating improvements in other manufacturing
technology (Brajer et al. 2011).
The amount of energy being produced globally from renewable sources,

including solar, is on the rise. istock/Fernando Alonso Herrero
countries to sites with less sophisticated technology in

developing countries (Peters et al. 2011).
Greater liberalization of trade can exert pressure on the
environment in any of three ways:
increasing economic activity and by extension natural
resource extraction, a scale effect;
changing the type of economic activity to either more or less
polluting industries, affecting intensity; and
changing the technology or intensity of production that
can sometimes encourage more environmentally friendly
production techniques (Kirkpatrick and Scrieciu 2008).
Regardless of the nature of the local change, wider trade allows
the environmental impacts of production to be completely
removed, or decoupled, from the site of consumption.
Such decoupling means that household consumption in
developed countries can have significant environmental impacts
elsewhere, particularly in developing nations. Tracing the
impacts of consumption in Norway, Peters and Hertwich (2006)
found that a households environmental impacts in foreign
countries embodied 61 per cent of its indirect emissions of CO2,
87 per cent of sulphur dioxide, and 34 per cent of nitrogen
oxides, while imports only represented 22 per cent of household
expenses (Wiedmann et al. 2007).
China is an instructive case for understanding trade. In the second
half of the 20th century, it rapidly shifted its economy towards a
processing base, resulting in a change from being a net exporter
of primary resources to a net importer. Much of this processed
merchandise is exported directly, with Chinas environment
absorbing the pollution (Ma et al. 2006). Between 2002 and
20
Some invoke a traditional economic dynamic at work a

regulatory race to the bottom, where deregulation is expected
to attract economic activity and create a comparative advantage
over competitors. This notion suggests that concern for the
environment and increasing environmental regulation in the
developed countries result in migration of the most polluting
industries to less affluent nations, although explicit evidence of
this is inconclusive (Kirkpatrick and Scrieciu 2008). A different
explanation has also been offered that the pattern is more akin
to the rapidly industrializing countries being stuck at the bottom,
since there were no regulations to begin with (Porter 1999). A
related argument has also been made over the environmental
effects of trade (Jorgenson 2007; Cole 2003).
Either way, the consequence is the same the creation of centres
of pollution in developing countries. This suggests that the
environmental Kuznets curve, relevant to a national context, has
been disguising the displacement of pollution across national
borders, with consumption in the most affluent nations driving
environmentally polluting production and consumption to
less affluent ones. For example, Cole (2006, 2004, 2003) has
shown that trade increases environmental damage in the least
developed countries while decreasing many forms of pollution in
developed ones. Perhaps the environmental Kuznets curve does
not work when all borders have been crossed by pollution.
Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions seem to
follow this displacement pattern. A low-income country with
less stringent regulations will find that an increase in trade
openness increases energy consumption as its comparative
advantage in dirty production deepens, while a high-income
country will see energy consumption fall in response to trade
liberalization (Cole 2006).
So, will future goods produced for consumption inevitably
also produce more pollution, despite regulations in developed
countries? Carbon-intensive industries are leaving areas of
stricter carbon regulation and moving to those that do not
have such regulations (World Bank 2008). At the beginning of
the 21st century, developed countries remained the largest
greenhouse gas emitters in per-person terms. However, in the
next few decades, the growth of emissions will come primarily
from developing countries. So, despite 20 years of negotiations
Box 1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions and international trade

Recently developed analytic methodologies allow the
representation of carbon emissions embodied in goods and
services that are internationally produced, consumed and
traded (Peters and Hertwich 2006). Plotting these data over
time illustrates changes in trade balances and the transfer of
emissions (Caldeira and Davis 2011). The most recent emission
and trade data reveal the effects of the global financial crisis
that started in 2008 (Peters et al. 2012).
Figure 1.8 tracks economic activity and CO2 emissions
in developed and developing countries for 19902010.
The tinted areas represent relative trade balances, with
consumption lower than production in developing countries,
but higher than production in developed countries. In
developing countries, the total emissions embodied in
the production and consumption of goods and services
rose steeply, especially after 2002, with the trade balance
increasing slowly as production and consumption diverged.
In contrast, the emissions embodied in production and
consumption in developed countries were more horizontal until

about 2002, after which they rose steeply, peaking in 2008.
Their negative trade balance increased over the decades.
As represented by embodied carbon emissions, developed
countries seem to be back to business as usual by 2010, while
emissions in developing countries have passed them with
hardly a pause. On a per-person basis a large disparity persists
between CO2 emissions from developed and developing
countries, as shown on the right.
Although the global financial crisis could have presented
an opportunity to establish the decoupling of economic
development from carbon emissions, the return of high
emissions growth in 2010 may mark the passing of the
opportunity. The effects of environmentally sound and lowcarbon economic stimulus packages are not yet evident, but
the persistent implementation of low-carbon economic plans
oriented towards resource-efficiency could show positive effects
in future tracking of embodied emissions (Peters et al. 2012).
Figure 1.8 The transfer of CO2 emissions between developed and developing countries, 19902010
Billion tonnes of CO2
5.0
Developed countries
Developing countries
4.5
4.0
Tonnes of CO2 per person

14
12
10
Consumption
Net imports
Ne
te
xpo
rts
Production
3.5
3.0
Production
Consumption
2.5
2.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Peters et al. 2012
to avoid this outcome, developing countries will be following the

same energy- and carbon-intensive development path as their
developed counterparts have done (World Bank 2008).
with a number of pressures on the environment, is intended to

illustrate the complexity and provide some methods with which
policy makers might be able to work to ameliorate the effects.
DISCUSSION
Critical thresholds
Drivers are interacting in unpredictable ways, resulting in some

surprising consequences. This section, which links the drivers
Critical thresholds are being approached or even crossed.

Ecosystems and the biosphere are systems that may change in a
Drivers
21
Figure 1.9 The great acceleration after the Second World War
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
Temperature
anomaly
(C)
Global financial crisis
5
Fraction
Forest
(x10)
2010
GWP
Index
(1960=1)
2005
Human
population
(billions) 2000
10
Collapse of Soviet Union
Methane
(d400ppb/180)
Mt. Pinatubo eruption
Apple
100
1910
Industrial Revolution
American revolution Tokugawa Shogunate

Pilgrims land
5000
1960
Peak of British Empire

Manila Galleon Trade
2006
Internet
World War II
World War I
US Dust Bowl
1000
Global oil
consumption
(Index=1)
Start of Great Acceleration
50
500
10
Total material
consumption
(gigatonnes)
CO2
(d260ppm/20)
Water
withdrawals
(thousand km3)
Fraction
Cropland
(x10)
35 000 die in European heat wave
Ch'ing
17881795
El Nio/La NiaSouthern Oscillation
Mechanical loom
Ming
"Black death"
Mongol Empire
Incas
Aztecs
Vikings visit
Sung
North America
Collapse of Maya
Tang
Roman Empire
Han
Chou Greece
Shang Egypt
First Peruvian cities
Hsia
Olmecs at peak
First Sumerian cities
Conquistadors
1510
Peak of Mongol Empire
1010
Peak of Islamic Caliphate
Peak of Roman Empire
Arabic numerals
Paper
Iron Age starts
Writing
Early agriculture
10000
Biologically
modern humans
organized in
small
hunter/gather
bands
Paleo-Indian migration to Americas
AD
0
BC
3010
BC
8010
Bow and arrow
50000
48010
Migration of modern humans out of Africa
100000
Years before present (logarithmic scale)
22
88010
Source: Adapted from Costanza et al. 2007
direct and linear way as a result of human stresses, or that may

have more complicated dynamics (Levin 1998). Although some
can absorb a substantial amount of stress before they exhibit any
response, change can take place abruptly and irrevocably when
a threshold is exceeded, leaving little opportunity for human
adaptation (Carpenter et al. 2011; Folke et al. 2004).
To understand the dynamics of a complex system, analysts seek
out leverage points. The study of leverage points in complex
systems suggests that indirect interventions can have great
power and direct interventions can be used to enhance cobenefits, that both probable and possible outcomes should be
addressed, and that difficult challenges can be broken down to
manageable portions. The system must be monitored for both
intended and unintended change (Meadows 1999).
The idea that the perturbation of a complex ecological system can
trigger sudden feedbacks is not new: significant scientific research
has explored thresholds and tipping points that the planetary
system may face if humanity does not control carbon emissions.
From the perspective of drivers, understanding feedbacks reveals
that many of them interact in unpredictable ways. Generally, the
rates of change in these drivers are not monitored or controlled,
and so it is not possible to predict or even perceive the thresholds
as they approach. Critically, the bulk of research has been on
understanding the effects of drivers on ecosystems, not on the
effects of changed ecosystems on the drivers the feedback loop.
From Figure 1.9, it is evident that the rate of these changes and
the anthropogenic drivers acting on them are accelerating. In
fact, Costanza et al. (2007) argues that this great acceleration
began after the Second World War, with the scale of population
growth and economic consumption and production increasing
at rates that are orders of magnitude greater than in previous
eras. It is this scale and speed that makes redirecting humanitys
trajectory toward more sustainable development within the limits
of planetary boundaries an extremely daunting challenge but one
that we cannot afford to delay.
Overexploitation of natural resources
Considering that 1416 per cent of animal protein consumed
globally comes from the sea, overfishing of marine resources
offers a useful example of overexploitation of natural resources.
At the global level, overfishing has been widespread but far
from universal, and in those parts of the world with the capacity
to manage fisheries, there is evidence that overfishing can be
stopped and that previously overfished stocks can recover (Worm
et al. 2009). There remain, however, a number of cases where
overfishing continues despite the efforts of the international
community, emphasizing the need for capacity building for both
policy formulation and effective management.
The greatest expansion in fishing fleets and harvesting
occurred after the Second World War, as governments provided
significant subsidies to encourage more investment in harvesting
technologies, which massively increased yields. In many cases
the increased yield proved to be unsustainable, and fishery
declines were widespread by the 1970s (Pauly 2009). Extension

of jurisdiction with the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) resulted in improved management practices in
many coastal areas, but a second round of expansion of fishing
capacity resulted in a second round of declines (FAO 2010).
Overcapacity remains a serious problem in global fisheries despite
an international agreement to address it, the 1999 International
Plan of Action for the Management of Fishing Capacity (FAO 2010).
Part of the problem in sustainably managing fisheries is the
difficulty of monitoring the state of fish populations, especially
in areas outside the jurisdiction of national or international
authorities where biological information and even basic catch
data may be unavailable or unreliable. Moreover in many
fisheries, data are not recorded on species taken as by-catch
unwanted fish caught inadvertently, often returned to the
sea dead or dying so their status and the impacts of fishing
are unknown and unmanaged (Myers and Worm 2005). More
generally, poor monitoring means that there is little knowledge
about the dynamics of many fish populations, making it difficult
to discern whether the observed populations are showing signs
of natural variability or imminent collapse (Carpenter et al. 2011).
Chapters 4 and 5 discuss the environmental impacts of these
collapses in more detail.
Driver combinations and feedbacks on human health
Looking specifically at food production, human and ecosystem
exposure to chemicals increased dramatically with the
industrialization of agriculture (Wallinga 2009). There has
been limited research on the human and environmental health
impacts of long-term exposure to these chemicals, but it is
known that the risks are much higher in developing countries
where 99 per cent of current global deaths from pesticide
exposure occur, both from occupational exposure and from
casual exposure resulting from lax or absent health and safety
controls (De Silva et al. 2006).
Nitrate pollution from both crop cultivation and livestock
production is among the most destructive impacts of food
production, with the scale of meat production having serious
ramifications for local pollution levels. In the United States, for
example, of the top 20 sources of industrial pollution, eight are
slaughterhouses (Hamerschlag 2011; EPA 2009). In addition,
the countrys Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs)
produced 500 million tonnes of manure in 2007: three times the
United States 2007 total amount of human waste (Hamerschlag
2011; EPA 2009). A further problem from centralized meat
production facilities involves how bacteria convert excess nitrate
in such waste into nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, or it
can leach into waterways and groundwater (Wallinga 2009).
Generating intense pressures
Drivers of environmental change are growing, evolving and

combining at such an accelerating pace, at such a large scale and
with such widespread reach that they are exerting unprecedented
pressure on the environment. Most forms of consumption and
production use the environment as a source of raw materials
Drivers
23
Box 1.4 Information and communication technologies: a vicious cycle?

Democratic Republic of Congo
The rising pace and scale of drivers of environmental change
are related to the process of globalization, which has
enhanced the rapidity and reach with which people, ideas,
and technologies move. The explosive demand for mobile
telephones and the resources with which they are made has
concentrated impacts in producing countries. Since 1994,
more than 10 billion mobile telephones have been produced,
and as of mid-2010, there were an estimated 5 billion users
worldwide (ITU 2010). This growth has led to an accelerating
demand for tantalum, extracted from coltan ore, a key
component of consumer electronics. Most coltan is mined
in Australia, but approximately 89 per cent of the global
coltan supply comes from the eastern Democratic Republic of
the Congo (DRC) (Global Witness 2010). The environmental
impacts are likely to be significant for a number of reasons:
among other things, illegal mining operations are carried out
with few environmental safeguards, often within the borders
of national parks; land clearance and pollution from the mines
contribute to erosion and the degradation of streams and water
tables; and mining operations typically lead to an increase in
poaching and the local bushmeat trade, threatening wildlife
(Hayes 2002). In addition, since most mining operations in
the eastern DRC are outside government control, lucrative
revenues from the extraction and trade in coltan and other
minerals have often been used to finance violence and other
human rights violations.
Pearl River basin, China
In 2008, a quarter of the worlds electronic equipment was
manufactured in China and more specifically in the Pearl
River basin of southern China (Yunjie et al. 2010). Chinas
GDP growth was 9 per cent in 2009, while the Guangdong
region of the basin exhibited growth levels 23 percentage
points above national averages (World Bank 2011e). In the
past decade, the region constituted one-fifth of Chinas area,
contained a third of its population and produced 40 per cent
of national GDP (Barak 2009). The environmental impact
of this economic growth has been poorly monitored, with
estimates of tens of thousands of tonnes of heavy metals,
nitrates and fuel being dumped untreated into the ocean each
year (AsiaNews 2005). Without better coordination of water
treatment, farmers have suffered severe crop losses from
and as a sink for wastes. The impacts can be highly concentrated

in some parts of the world such as nuclear waste storage
facilities and residual accumulation of toxic compounds at
e-waste recycling sites (Box 1.4) or systemically spread over
the entire globe such as PCBs delivered along the food chain
from equator to poles and they can quickly create new and
potentially dangerous situations. In many instances their impacts
can be so deep, rapid and unpredictable that they risk exceeding
24
using the heavily polluted water for irrigation. The information

technology industry has been blamed for much of the heavy
metal dumped in the region, with the Pearl River basin named
the most polluted river system in the country in 2004 and
2005 (Xu 2010).
Agbogbloshie, Ghana
A huge dumping site for electronic waste is located in the
suburbs of Ghanas capital city, Accra. The Agbogbloshie slum,
populated by domestic migrants from the northern reaches of
Ghana, has witnessed an explosion of discarded computers,
screens, hard drives and mobile telephones over the last
ten years. What was once a productive wetland has become
a hazardous chemical zone, home to approximately 40,000
people (Safo 2011). The local economy depends on recycling
this waste, with the majority of the workforce young boys aged
1118 earning roughly US$8 per day. The sources of much
of this waste appear to be Parties to the Basel Convention,
although a significant proportion also seems to come from the
United States, which along with only Afghanistan and Haiti has
not signed this treaty.
To date there has been little study of the effects of this trade,
but toxins have been discovered in soil and food samples due
to chemicals accumulating in the food chain (Dogbevi 2011;
Monbiot 2011), and the local toll could be considerable.
Exposure to chemical fumes can inhibit development of the
reproductive and nervous systems, particularly in children
with high lead levels, while mercury, cadmium and lead may
all retard the cognitive and immunological development of
the young workforce. The story of Abogbloshie gives an initial
snapshot of the very real, localized environmental and health
impacts of rapidly emerging global phenomena such as the
shift to information technology replete with its disposable
approach to obsolete equipment. It is a cautionary tale of
how technological innovation can have both an extraordinary
effect on the global economy and society itself while, nearly
invisibly, wreaking havoc on the more vulnerable, especially
where the necessary institutional oversight is absent. It is this
disconnection between the global and local that the current
economic paradigm has created, and researchers must work
backwards through the supply chain if the present situation is
to be understood.
environmental thresholds and societal capacity to monitor them

or respond adequately.
The combination and scale of some drivers can create dynamic
patterns that, in turn, generate complex systemic interactions.
One example is the rise in greenhouse gas emissions, the scale of
which has defied global efforts to stimulate the necessary action
to stem emissions. In addition to rising global temperatures and
sea levels, scientists predict that the pace and scale of climate
change could eventually exceed certain ecological limits or
thresholds, leading to surprising and dangerous consequences
such as the alteration of the world oceans chemical composition
with increasing proportions of acidifying carbon, the global loss
of coral reef ecosystems, or the collapse of the West Antarctic ice
sheet (Fabry et al. 2008; Lenton et al. 2008).
One driver can trigger a series of drivers and pressures that
act in a domino fashion. For example, concerns about climate
change impacts, including crop vulnerability and food insecurity,
gave rise to policies that included mandates to increase biofuel
production, such as legislation introduced in 2003 in the EU and
in 2008 in the United States. The resulting demand generated a
cascading set of pressures including crop diversion to biofuels.
This diversion of cropland then contributed to higher food prices
in 2008 and 2010, increasing worries about food insecurity.
Inertia and path dependencies
As global ecological and institutional systems are extremely

complex and slow to change, decisions made today have longterm and far-reaching impacts. Without addressing the drivers
behind the current trajectory, it will be difficult to move to an
environmentally sustainable suite of choices and outcomes.
At the same time the need for urgency must be recognized.
Finally, due to the inertia in the system and an unwillingness
to address these drivers in the past, future generations are
committed to a range of impacts that could have been avoided.
The most daunting of these problems is climate change, where
a coalescing of several drivers has made reducing carbon
emissions a very complicated task. For instance, current
fossil-fuel-dependent energy and transport infrastructures are
estimated to have committed the planet to emitting 496 billion
tonnes of CO2 from now until 2060 (Davis et al. 2010). These
calculations do not include currently uncommitted transport
network extensions, additional fossil-fuel-based power plants
or the complex economy of refuelling stations or factories
dependent on combustion energy, all of which are entirely reliant
on the current model of energy generation and transport. The
issue is not solely about the existing physical infrastructure that
would be costly to replace, but the millions of jobs, processing
facilities and entire sub-industries that have developed as a
result of the status quo.
The case for investments in transport infrastructure has been
made before. However, the institutionalization of global food
production offers similar barriers to change. United States farm
policy provides an illustrative example of this phenomenon,
although it is by no means the only country where it occurs.
Currently, 74 per cent of agricultural land in the United States
is dedicated to eight commodity crops: maize, wheat, cotton,
soybeans, rice, barley, oats and sorghum, supported by 7080
per cent of government agricultural subsidies (Jackson et al.
2009), while the farming industry has consolidated to become
an industrialized food production system. Unfortunately, the
emphasis on producing these eight crop commodities has
resulted in a food system where healthier food options, such as
vegetables and fruits, increased in price by more than 100 per cent
between 1985 and 2000, while the price of unhealthy fats and
oils derived from these basic foodstuffs rose by only 35 per cent
(Jackson et al. 2009). With many of the countrys consumers
making daily consumption decisions based on cost, decades of
investment in this vertically integrated and politically powerful
industry make fundamental changes in the health outcomes of
the food system extremely challenging.
However, not all health effects are diet related, but can be linked
to such atmospheric pollution as nitrate formation and chemical
pollution resulting from enhanced pesticide use, amongst other
sources. For instance, in the United States, a high proportion of
maize and soybean crops are genetically modified to resist the
effects of the herbicide glyphosate, applied in vast quantities to
eradicate weeds. Within the supply chain, maize and soy make
up 8391 per cent of livestock feed grains. Ongoing research
raises the question of the endocrine-disrupting potential
of glyphosate (Daniel et al. 2009; Gasnier et al. 2009). The
residence time of glyphosate in the environment is difficult to
model, as it is dependent on a number of biophysical factors
(Vereecken 2005) and monitoring capability is only recently
catching up with its widespread use. However, in communities
located near agricultural fields, evidence of glyphosate and its
most common degradate aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA)
can be found in the atmosphere, rain and local water bodies
(Chang et al. 2011).
Organic, pesticide-free maize stalks, in the Santa Cruz, California.

David Gomez/iStock
Drivers
25
Box 1.5 Conclusions of driver-centred thinking

Indirect interventions can go a long way. Sometimes policy
interventions targeted directly at drivers are not practical. Policies
that set specific targets for population growth, for example, are
seldom politically viable and have been called into question
on moral and humanitarian grounds. However, there are often
policy options that can reduce a driver indirectly in ways that are
more acceptable. Fertility rates, for example, have been shown
to be very responsive to levels of womens education and to
access to family planning programmes, consistent with two key
MDGs as well as imperatives of ethical human justice.
A display at the UN Conference on Environment and Development, in

June 1992, registered increases in world population, and decreases
in the amount of productive land. Michos Tzovaras/UN Photo
Focus on causes, rather than effects. It has not

conventionally been popular to think about drivers the
causes as a focus for environmental policy. Rather, policy
responses typically concentrate on reducing pressures the
effects. There are, however, two compelling reasons to take a
fresh look at drivers as an appropriate focus for policy. Firstly,
unprecedented rates of change are being experienced and
even where coping with one set of pressures is successful,
others are around the corner. Secondly the global community
has embraced a set of international environmental goals that
are designed to tackle the drivers of environmental change
more directly than previous efforts. The major legal agreements
of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development on climate change, biodiversity and land
degradation recognize that long-term progress requires an
ability to manage the evolution of underlying drivers. A relevant
set of insights is available, providing policy makers with a
menu of leverage points from which to choose driver-focused
options for managing environmental problems.
The relationship between human well-being and
environmental sustainability is synergistic. MDG 1 to end
poverty and hunger, MDG 2 to achieve universal education, and
MDGs 35 on gender equality and child and maternal health
are all synergistic with MDG 7 on environmental sustainability.
For example, approximately three-quarters of all human land
use is for meat and dairy production. Red meat is several times
more demanding of land and water than poultry or vegetarian
foods, and is also linked to cancer and heart disease. Policies
encouraging lower consumption of red meat would contribute
to the MDGs related to human health and environmental
sustainability. Similarly, universal education and enhanced
gender equality are mutually synergistic. Improvement in both
of these areas increases demand for maternal and child health
services, reducing unwanted births which in turn reduces
population impacts on the environment.
26
Direct interventions can be targeted at many different

entry points. Even where indirect interventions are not
practical, the fully disaggregated representation of key
drivers opens up opportunities for effective intervention. For
example, economic growth is generally considered a positive
outcome across the world, so policies aimed at reducing
growth, whether directly or indirectly, are not well received.
However, that does not mean that driver-oriented policies are
impossible. In China, for example, recognition of the problems
associated with growth has led to ambitious targets aimed at
energy efficiency.
Unintended consequences matter. Policies intended to
bring about improvement in one environmental domain may
result in unintended consequences in another. Negative
consequences may take the form of cross-systemic links, the
effects on food security of biofuel promotion, for example,
or of path dependence such as policies that favour one
type of infrastructure and make a switch to more favourable
infrastructures more difficult. Policy makers seeking to manage
drivers need to find ways of designing policies to minimize
such negative consequences.
Even intractable drivers can be reframed. A core tenet of
conflict resolution is to break down seemingly intractable
elements into separate parts, which can then be subject to
effective bargaining. Recent discussions around alternative
measures of well-being have elements in common with this.
Whereas GDP per person is treated as a proxy for well-being
and as a universal policy objective, recent explorations have
promoted alternative formulations where GDP is analytically
separated from well-being. This opens up investigations into a
broader range of proxies for well-being that could be pursued.
Surveillance and monitoring get results. Even where policy
responses are not immediately possible, awareness of the
importance of drivers justifies increased surveillance and
monitoring. Many of the most important drivers are currently
not subject to systematic monitoring, their impacts even less
so. The evidence, then, is compelling for the need to enhance
the collection and monitoring of anthropogenic drivers and
their links with the environment.
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C H A P T E R
Volker Mther/iStock
Atmosphere
Coordinating lead authors: Johan C.I. Kuylenstierna and May Antoniette Ajero
Lead authors: Drew Shindell, Eric Zusman, Frank Murray, Geir Braathen, Kevin Hicks,
Linn Persson, Lisa Emberson, Martha Barata, Sara Feresu, Sara Terry, T.S. Panwar,
Yousef Meslmani and Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh
Contributing authors: Luis Abdn Cifuentes, Msafiri Jackson, Nicholas Muller,
Paulo Artaxo, Seydi Ababacar Ndiaye, Susan Casper Anenberg and Emily Nyaboke
Principal scientific reviewer: Evgeny Gordov
Chapter coordinator: Volodymyr Demkine
Main Messages
The global atmosphere is at a critical stage,
particularly in relation to climate change. There
is considerable scientific evidence of the causes
and solutions that could protect human health and
ecosystems, and effective action has resulted in the
achievement of some internationally agreed goals.
The phase-out of ozone depleting substances and lead
in petrol by implementing relatively simple and costeffective solutions demonstrates that, when most major
stakeholders agree, significant progress is possible.
Progress in achieving environmental goals for
particulate matter (PM) and tropospheric ozone
is mixed, despite the high levels of concern about
their impacts, as solutions are complex and can be
costly. Much of the developed world has successfully
reduced concentrations of indoor and outdoor PM,
sulphur and nitrogen compounds to levels close
to or within World Health Organization guidelines.
However, more remains to be done. Concern is
high in Africa, Asia and Latin America, where levels
of PM in many cities remain far in excess of the
guidelines. Existing solutions can be relatively
costly and the time it will take to meet guideline or
target concentrations will depend on the priority
given to the issue. Tropospheric ozone also remains
a significant problem and is proving difficult to
address despite some progress with regard to peak
concentrations in Europe and North America.
Climate change is the most important atmospheric
issue. While there is considerable concern about
this complex problem, progress has been slow due
to varying levels of motivation and because some
low-carbon technological solutions are considered
expensive. Despite attempts to develop low-carbon
economies in a number of countries, atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to
increase to levels likely to push global temperatures
beyond the internationally agreed limit of 2C above
the pre-industrial average temperature. Application
of current low-carbon technologies and existing
32
32

policy options would reduce the risks posed by

climate change, but a gap of several billion tonnes
of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent remains between
present emission reduction pledges and those
necessary to reach climate targets.
Complementary strategies to address short-lived
climate forcers (SLCFs) black carbon, methane
and tropospheric ozone could, if implemented
widely, significantly reduce the rate of temperature
increase in the near term while delivering
substantial co-benefits for human health and food
security. Given that policy tools and technological
solutions already exist, progress in reducing SLCFs
could be rapid. Nevertheless, this has to be seen
as a complementary strategy to the reductions in
anthropogenic CO2 emissions necessary to protect
the Earth from exceeding the 2C limit.
Climate change, air quality and stratospheric ozone
depletion are increasingly seen as closely related
issues but governments are not addressing them
in an integrated manner. An integrated approach
to atmospheric protection could support economic
development and, by addressing key sectors, policy
makers could accomplish multiple goals. Addressing
sources of pollution can affect the different gases
and particles they emit and deliver multiple climate
and air quality benefits. The challenge is to find
those solutions that maximize the benefits and lend
themselves to widespread implementation.
Investment in achieving atmospheric goals is
expected to be cost-effective. The benefits of these
policies include reducing anthropogenic radiative
forcing, saving millions of lives and significantly
enhancing quality of life. Achievement of these
benefits and climate and air quality goals requires
widespread implementation of currently available
technology and proven policy but it is likely that
transformative changes affecting major drivers of
emissions are required as well.
INTRODUCTION
Substances emitted to the atmosphere as a result of human

activities are a challenge to both the environment and
development: millions of people die prematurely each year from
indoor and outdoor air pollution; ozone-depleting substances
(ODS) have thinned the ozone layer and created seasonal holes
in the stratospheric ozone layer over polar regions; and climate
change is happening now, and atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases and other substances that affect climate
continue to increase. Climate change threatens, amongst other
things, food security and biodiversity, and it is likely to increase
storm damage on all parts of the globe. People in many of the
developing regions are especially vulnerable.
These atmospheric issues are addressed by several global
and regional agreements including Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992)
and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (WSSD 2002).
Internationally agreed goals and, in some cases, targets have
been established. In addition, there are some internationally
agreed guidelines related to human health and ecosystems that
are used to monitor progress in addressing atmospheric issues.
This chapter uses key indicators to assess progress in relation
to goals set at global and regional levels for atmospheric issues.
It considers whether progress is on track to achieve these goals
using existing policies and measures, and whether they are
sufficient to address the key issues important to human well-
Figure 2.1 Impacts of and links between selected

substances emitted to the atmosphere
STRATOSPHERIC
OZONE DEPLETION
ODS
CO2
CH4
CLIMATE
CHANGE
SOx Black Organic

Carbon Carbon
Other PM
Lead
Direct impact
Indirect impact
Cooling impact
IMPACTS Tropospheric
ON CROP
Ozone
YIELD
HUMAN
HEALTH AND
WELL-BEING
POPs
VOCs
NOx
CO
NHx
ECOSYSTEM
IMPACTS
Warming impact
Reaction to
form ozone
being and development. The chapter then considers the outlook

for the different issues and what more needs to be done. Where
existing policies fall short, the need for more transformative
change is highlighted, a concept that is expanded in Chapter 16.
The scientific basis for the development of air pollution policy
has greatly improved and there is increasing understanding of
the socio-economic aspects of atmospheric issues (Stern 2007).
Recently, science has pointed to new challenges such as near-term
climate change and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) (Shindell
et al. 2012; UNEP and WMO 2011), and knowledge about
thresholds and tipping points has improved (Lenton et al. 2008).
Climate change, air quality and stratospheric ozone depletion
are closely related, as individual pollutants can have multiple
impacts on health, crop yields, ecosystems, cooling or heating
of the atmosphere and stratospheric ozone depletion, all with
the potential to affect human well-being (Figure 2.1). Many
sources also emit multiple pollutants that can both affect air
quality and cause climate change. Yet, despite these links, most
governments address these issues separately, in part because
goals were set in this way 20 years ago. Depending on which
measures are implemented, there could be co-beneficial or
antagonistic outcomes and, unless a more integrated approach
is developed, there is a risk that different atmospheric policies
could work against each other.
INTERNATIONAL GOALS AND TARGETS
Major goals to protect the environment and human well-being

from the impact of substances emitted to the atmosphere were
established in Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992) and the Johannesburg
Plan of Implementation (WSSD 2002). These emphasized the
need to identify threshold levels of pollutants and greenhouse
gases that cause dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climatic system and environment (Agenda 21 Chapter 9).
Meeting the objectives to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
and other ozone-depleting substances as defined in the 1985
Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (UNEP
1985) and its 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete
the Ozone Layer (UNEP 1987) was considered essential. These
also recognized the importance of the 1979 Convention on LongRange Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and its protocols
to reduce regional air pollution, and recommended that these
programmes be continued and enhanced, and their experience
shared with other regions.
The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation went on to consider
air quality as a part of overall development, promoting an
integrated approach to policy making. It stressed the need to
reduce respiratory diseases and other health impacts resulting
from air pollution, paying particular attention to women and
children. It supported the phasing out of lead in petrol, measures
to prevent childrens exposure to lead, and efforts to strengthen
the monitoring, surveillance and treatment of lead poisoning.
Another focus was to assist developing countries in providing
affordable energy to rural communities, particularly to reduce
dependence on traditional fuels for cooking and heating.
Atmosphere
33
Delegates at the 2011 UN Climate Change Conference in Durban, South Africa. UNFCCC/Jan Golinski
Atmospheric issues are closely linked to the Millennium

Development Goals (MDGs) (UN 2000), as shown in Table 2.1.
Other non-atmosphere-related conventions such as the 1992
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) also have links with
the impacts of atmospheric pollution. The Aichi Biodiversity
Targets (CBD 2010a) include two atmosphere-related targets:
Target 8: by 2020, pollution, including from excess nutrients,
will have been brought to levels that are not detrimental to
ecosystem function and biodiversity; and
Target 10: by 2015, the multiple anthropogenic pressures
on coral reefs, and other vulnerable ecosystems impacted
by climate change or ocean acidification will have been
minimized, so as to maintain their integrity and functioning.
Atmospheric goals and targets are supported by both legally
and non-legally binding environmental agreements (Table 2.2),
most of which contain globally agreed quantitative targets

and timelines for implementation that have catalysed the
development and implementation of national regulation.
The goals and targets refer to different aspects of control,
including:
control of drivers, for example the total ban with a few
exceptions of the production and consumption of ozonedepleting substances, and the phase-out of leaded petrol;
reducing pressures, for example emission reductions of
carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases; and
targeting concentrations of, for example, particulate matter
(PM) and CO2.
For outdoor and indoor air pollution there are no global
targets as such, but the World Health Organization (WHO) has
established air quality guidelines, based on scientific research,
Table 2.1 Atmospheric issues affecting achievement of the Millennium Development Goals
Goal
Target
Impact
Eradicate extreme
poverty and hunger
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people suffering

from hunger
Climate variability and change (trends and extremes) affect crop

production; tropospheric ozone directly affects crop yields
Achieve universal
primary education
Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be
able to complete a full course of primary schooling
Lead exposure affects cognitive development and function in young

children
Reduce child mortality
Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five

mortality rate
Children are the most susceptible to health impacts of air pollution

and lead poisoning; indoor air pollution from cooking with biomass
fuels disproportionately affects women and small children
Ensure environmental
sustainability
Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction Climate change is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity;
in the rate of loss
eutrophication from nitrogen deposition affects the diversity
of terrestrial vegetation; tropospheric ozone affects vegetation
composition in sensitive ecosystems; ocean acidification and warming
affect marine biodiversity
Source: (goals and targets) UN 2000
34
to help assess progress towards reducing risks from air

pollution (WHO 2006). The limit for global temperature increase
at the end of the century the agreed 2oC limit was set on the
basis of scientific discussion of the potential impacts, but also
political realities and the likelihood that it could be achieved
(Hare et al. 2011). Countries set national air-quality standards
and even greenhouse gas commitments or targets specific to
their international obligations, development situation and
institutional capacities. The Copenhagen Accord (UNFCCC
2009) invited developed countries to submit economy-wide
emission reduction targets for 2020 and developing countries
to submit nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).

The Cancun Agreements (UNFCCC 2011) legally recognized
these pledged targets and actions, formally anchoring them in
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC). The CLRTAP remains the only regional agreement on
transboundary air pollution that sets targets for many different
pollutants. Some regions, and sub-regions Africa, Asia and
South America have cooperation agreements that show intent
to reduce emissions, but these are not binding, and in some
cases have not been implemented due to lack of human and
financial resources.
Table 2.2 Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related to atmospheric issues
Major themes from internationally agreed goals
Numerical target
Coverage
Stratospheric ozone depletion

Vienna Convention for the Protection of the
Ozone Layer (UNEP 1985)
Protect the ozone layer
Montreal Protocol on Substances that

Deplete the Ozone Layer (UNEP 1987)
Eliminate ozone-depleting substances
Global
Zero production and consumption of ozone-depleting
substances, with stated exceptions
Global
Climate change
United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992)
Stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations

in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC (UNFCCC

1998)
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from

industrialized countries
At least 5% reduction in emissions from Annex 1

(developed) countries by 2012 compared to 1990; specific
national reduction commitments
Annex 1 countries
Cancun Agreements (UNFCCC 2010)
Reduce global emissions to limit the

global average temperature increase to
2oC above pre-industrial levels
Quantified economy-wide emission pledges for 2020 for

Annex 1 Parties and nationally appropriate mitigation
actions for non-Annex 1 Parties (developing countries)
Global
EU 20-20-20 targets (EEA 2009)
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions from

EU countries by 2020
20% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels; 20% energy

consumption to come from renewable sources; 20% cut in
primary energy use compared to projected levels
EU Member States
Prevent exposure to lead
Zero emission of lead from transport
Global
Reduce the health effects of air

pollution
Guidelines set for PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, Pb, CO and O3, e.g.
PM2.5 10 g per m3 annual mean; PM10 20 g per m3
annual mean
Globally
recommended
Global
Lead pollution
Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992);
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
(WSSD 2002)
Air quality for health and ecosystems
WHO guidelines (WHO 2006)
WHO guidelines for ecosystems set on the basis of

critical levels and loads as set for CLRTAP
Air pollution
Improve human health and
environmental quality up to 2020
Guidelines set for PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, Pb, CO and O3,
e.g. PM2.5 25 g per m3 annual mean, PM10 40 g per
m3 annual mean; critical loads and levels also set for
ecosystems; national emissions ceilings set for each EU
country for SO2, NOX, VOC and NH3
EU Member States
Convention on Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)
(UNECE 1979)
Protect humans and the environment

from air pollution, to be implemented
through objectives set in the convention
protocols
The Gothenburg Protocol (UNECE 2005) sets reductions

for all Parties a multi-pollutant/multi-effect protocol with
reduction targets for emissions compared to 1990 to be
achieved in 2010 (being revised with 2020 targets): refer
to Annex II of the protocol for specific country emission
ceilings
UNECE countries of
Europe, Central Asia
and North America
ASEAN Haze Agreement (ASEAN 2002)
Monitor and prevent transboundary haze

pollution as a result of land and/or forest
fires
Agreed to adopt the policy of zero burning
ASEAN countries of
South East Asia
EU directives for air quality, vehicles,

stationary sources and national
emissions
(EC 2008)
Transboundary air pollution
Atmosphere
35
PROGRESS IN ACHIEVING ATMOSPHERIC GOALS
This section examines progress in addressing concerns about

the atmosphere over the 20 years or so since Agenda 21 (UNCED
1992) identified key priorities. The goals and targets set globally
and regionally for a number of atmospheric issues are compared
to the current situation, examining whether they have been met
and determining the size of the gap between the current situation
and the goals and targets.
Progress is described against key indicators by considering
atmospheric issues in three main categories:
examples of where targets are not being met and the
situation remains far from sustainable;
examples of mixed progress, with some regions having met
targets and others remaining far from them; and
examples of good progress, where targets have been set and
are largely met.
Climate change: goals far from being met
There is broad scientific consensus that anthropogenic emissions

of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are the leading cause of
contemporary climatic changes (IPCC 2007). Four independent
analyses show that 20002009 was the warmest decade on record
with atmospheric concentrations of CO2 also increasing (Figure 2.2).
A look at regional temperature changes shows that the greatest
warming over the past century is at high latitudes (Figure 2.3).
Climate change threatens human well-being in many ways, from
a greater frequency of heat waves and severe storms, to shifts in
rainfall patterns and rising sea levels (IPCC 2007). Changes in the
frequency of tropical cyclones are uncertain, but it is likely that
their intensity will increase with rising temperatures (IPCC 2011).
Humans are directly affected, for example through alterations
in freshwater supply, agricultural productivity and health,
and indirectly by the economic and social impacts of loss of
biodiversity and ecosystem services. Climate change is therefore
considered to be the most significant problem related to changes
in the atmosphere being faced by humankind. A review of the
More than 28 000 homes were inundated in the disastrous Brisbane

Flood of 2011, the worst flood in Australias history. On-Air/iStock
36
Box 2.1 Climate change

Related goals
Prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system (UNFCCC)
Indicators
Temperature trends; rainfall changes; sea ice extent; CO2
concentrations; greenhouse gas emissions
Global trends
Slow progress; not on track to avoid crossing UNFCCCs
agreed temperature rise limit of 2oC
economics literature suggests that damage from climate impacts

could amount annually to 12 per cent of world gross domestic
product (GDP) by 2100 if temperatures increase by 2.5oC above
pre-industrial levels. These damage estimates rise to 24 per
cent of world GDP for a 4oC increase (Aldy et al. 2010). The few
studies that estimate damages for extreme warming find that
annual losses to world GDP by 2100 could range from 10.2 per
cent for a 6oC warming increase (Nordhaus and Boyer 2000) to
11.3 per cent for a 7.4oC warming increase (Stern 2007). While
valuation is sensitive to underlying assumptions about discount
rates and catastrophic effects, it is clear that the socio-economic
impacts of climate change are likely to be very large.
Impacts will probably be especially significant in the Arctic
where warming is likely to be the greatest. Large portions of the
Arctic have experienced temperature increases of more than 2oC
compared to 18901910 (Figure 2.3), and Arctic sea ice cover has
decreased dramatically, with declines in both the autumn and the
winter (Figure 2.4). The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets both
show rapidly increasing melt rates and the Greenland melt area
has expanded markedly (Rignot et al. 2011). Other areas where
sizeable climate change impacts are projected include the subtropics, where arid regions are expected to expand, and low-lying
areas, where sea-level rise is likely to cause the most damage. Less
developed countries that have limited capacity to adapt to these
changes are at risk of not meeting their development goals.
Extreme weather events are expected to change in frequency
and intensity, becoming more common as the climate warms,
including regional heat waves and both wet and dry extremes
of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Europe experienced two extremely
hot summers in 2003 and 2010, and research shows that the
probability of extreme summer heat, including mega-heat
waves, will increase by a factor of 510 within the next 40 years
(Barriopedro et al. 2011). The frequency of heavy precipitation
events has increased over most of the worlds land area (Chapter
4), and more intense and longer droughts have been observed
since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and sub-tropics
(IPCC 2007). Long-term trends show a tendency towards drier
conditions in the Sahel and northern India (Figure 2.5).
Figure 2.2 Trends in temperature change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, 18502010
Temperature change, C
0.6
CO2, parts per million
0.4
380
400
360
0.2
0.0
JMA
HadCRU
NOAA
-0.2
340
NASA
320
300
-0.4
-0.6
1850
280
260
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Note: 0 = 19611990 global mean

Source: NOAA NCDC; NASA GISS; Hadley Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia
(HadCRU); Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Source: Scripps Institute of Oceanography, NOAA
There is growing concern that inaction will lead to changes that

are irreversible at human timescales so-called tipping points.
Increased release of carbon stored in permafrost, as CO2 or
methane, is an example of a change that could give rise to a cycle

of further warming and further releases of greenhouse gases
(Schaefer et al. 2011; Lawrence and Slater 2005).
Figure 2.3 Temperature change over the 20th century
Temperature dierence between the 18901910 and 20002009 averages

-1.0
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
2.0
4.0C
Insucient data
Source: NASA GISS 2011

(updated from Hansen et al. 2010)
Atmosphere
37
Figure 2.4 Trends in Arctic sea ice extent in winter and autumn, 19792010
September average, million km2
February average, million km2
17.0
8.5
8.0
16.5
7.5
7.0
16.0
6.5
15.5
6.0
5.5
15.0
5.0
14.5 Arctic sea ice cover has decreased all
the year round. The figure shows
declines in winter and autumn.
14.0
1978
1985
1990
1995
4.5
2000
2005
2010
4.0
1978
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: NSIDC
Source:2011
NSIDC 2011
Concentrations and emissions of most anthropogenic

greenhouse gases have increased during recent years
(Table 2.3 and Figure 2.6). Growth rates have been especially
high for concentrations of several hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
while emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel consumption have
followed the more pessimistic of the widely used projections
Figure 2.5 Trends in African and South and West

Asian rainfall, May-September, 1960-1998
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special

Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC 2000) during the
last decade, despite a brief downturn in global emissions in
2009 associated with the economic recession (Figure 2.6).
The rapid growth of CO2 concentrations is also associated with
similarly rapid increases in ocean acidification (Chapter 4).
To avoid exceeding the 450 ppm atmospheric concentrations
of CO2-equivalent that are likely to be required to stay within
the temperature rise limit of 2oC, the IPCC has concluded that
developed countries need to reduce emissions by 2540 per cent
below 1990 levels by 2020 (IPCC 2007), while peer-reviewed
Table 2.3 Concentrations of greenhouse gases,

2005, 2009 and 2010
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
Millimetres per day
1.5
3.5
No data
Blue areas correspond to a trend towards wetter conditions, and red

areas towards a drier climate.
Source: Hulme et al. 1998
38
2005
2009
2010
CO2 (ppm)
378.7
386.3
388.5
CH4 (ppb)
1 774.5
1 794.2
1 799.1
N2O (ppb)
319.2
322.5
323.1
CFC-11 (ppt)
251.5
243.1
240.5
CFC-12 (ppt)
541.5
532.6
530.8
HCFC-22 (ppt)
168.3
198.4
206.2
HFC-134a (ppt)
34.4
52.4
57.8
Source: NOAA GMD 2011a
Figure 2.6 Trends in fossil fuel emissions, calculated

and IPCC scenarios, 19902015
Carbon emissions, billion tonnes
10
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios
used for climate projections
9
Calculated
Model average, IPCC scenarios

A1Fl
A1B
A2
B1
B2
A1T
5
1990
Note: For 2010 the emission data is preliminary

(9.1+/-0.5 billion tonnes per year).
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Source: adapted from Raupach and Canadell 2010, with observed emissions data
from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) and International
Energy Agency (IEA), and preliminary data for 2010 from Peters et al. 2011b
literature has concluded that developing countries need to

reduce emissions by 1530 per cent relative to business-as-
usual by 2020 (den Elzen and Hhne 2010, 2008). Further

reductions are then required beyond 2020 to achieve the target.
While some countries have reduced CO2 emissions since the
Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005, many appear unlikely
to reach their Kyoto targets. Further, many of the same countries
reporting reductions have increased imports of carbon-intensive
products so-called carbon leakage. Accounting for the foreign
CO2 emissions embedded within imported products, emissions
have in fact increased in many developed nations and the net
domestic-plus-embedded emissions are far greater than the
Kyoto targets (Peters et al. 2011).
The years since the Bali Action Plan (UNFCCC 2008) have
seen 42 developed countries pledge quantified economy-wide
emission targets up to 2020, while 44 developing countries
have pledged nationally appropriate mitigation actions.
Nonetheless, these commitments fall short by about 6 billion
tonnes of CO2-equivalent of levels likely to keep temperatures
within safe limits as shown in Figure 2.7. This figure compares
the expected emissions in 2020, resulting from four possible
interpretations of pledges of mitigation action from 86
countries, with the range of emission levels that would provide
a greater than 66 per cent chance of staying below the agreed
2oC temperature rise limit. The gap between expected emissions
and the agreed UNFCCC 2oC limit lies between 6 billion and
11 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent. The size of the gap depends
on the extent to which the pledges are implemented and how
they are applied (UNEP 2011a).
Addressing sources of pollution can deliver both climate and air quality benefits. Morten Madsen/iStock
Atmosphere
39
Figure 2.7 The emissions gap

Annual emissions, billion tonnes CO2-equivalent
Business as usual
56 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent (5559)
Case 1 Unconditional, lower-ambition pledges

implemented by countries, with lenient accounting rules
11-billion-tonne reduction gap
55
Case 2 Unconditional, lower-ambition pledges

implemented by countries, with strict accounting rules
50
Case 4 Conditional, more ambitious pledges

implemented by countries, with strict accounting rules
The dark grey area shows the range

likely (more than 66%) to limit global
temperature increase to below 2oC
during the 21st century.
45
60
Level of emissions consistent with limiting

temperature rise to 2oC: 44 billion tonnes
CO2-equivalent
Peak before 2020
50
Rapid decline afterwards
40
30
20
2 C range
40 10
0
-10
2000
1.5 C range
2020
2010
2040
2060
2080
2100
Time (years)
2020
A comparison of the gap between expected emissions in 2020 according to submitted country pledges,
formally recognized in Cancun, and the range of emissions likely to limit temperature increase to the
agreed UNFCCC 2oC limit.
An historical tendency to underestimate rates of climate change

suggests that non-linear changes and material losses at the
higher end of estimated ranges are also possible (Smith et al.
2009; Stern 2007). Overall, prospects for long-term climate
change look bleak if there is no demonstrable progress at both
international and national levels.
Even if negotiations take longer than expected at the
international level, national actions should continue to move
40
Source: UNEP 2011a
forward. A growing body of low-carbon research has shown that

in countries ranging from the United Kingdom (Strachan et al.
2008) and Japan (Fujino et al. 2008) to Thailand (Shrestha et
al. 2008), it would be economically and technically feasible to
cut emissions in half by 2050. The results of these studies are
based on placing a price on carbon through, for instance, an
emissions trading scheme. It is important to note, however, that
market-based instruments such as emissions trading schemes
or the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) may not work in all
The boom in global trade has led to significant emissions of CO2 and key pollutants including SO2, NOX and black carbon from international
shipping. Mark Wragg/iStock
contexts or benefit all regions equally. For example, in the CDM

market, Latin America and Asia and the Pacific account for more
than 87 per cent of all projects while Africa accounts for less than
3 per cent (UNFCCC 2012).
Other studies suggest that mainstreaming climate change
into existing development plans could provide a more
promising alternative to market-based instruments, especially
for those developing countries that constrain their development
with an emissions cap (Shukla et al. 2008). This is reinforced
by research that shows that because of the relatively greater
value of co-benefits, such as improved local air quality,
low-income countries have the most to gain from mitigating
greenhouse gases in a manner consistent with development
priorities (Nemet et al. 2010). Capturing these co-benefits
not only requires that policy makers become adept at
mainstreaming climate change in development plans, but
also necessitates decision-making frameworks that explicitly
acknowledge synergies between climate change and other
atmospheric issues. Such an integrated approach can readily
be put in place at local and city levels, where a considerable
amount of climate mitigation and air quality control has already
been implemented.
Mixed progress
There are examples of improvement in some regions while large

difficulties remain in many others, and global targets are still far
from being met. Four major atmospheric issues are described
below: sulphur, nitrogen, small particulate matter (typically
described as PM10 and PM2.5) and tropospheric ozone.
Sulphur pollution
Sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, predominantly from fossil
fuel use in power generation, industry and transport, have
detrimental effects on human health by contributing to PM2.5,
on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems by acidification (Rodhe
et al. 1995), on man-made materials and cultural heritage by
corrosion (Kucera et al. 2007), and on biodiversity (Bobbink et
al. 1998) and forestry (Menz and Seip 2004). Sulphate aerosols
also cool the atmosphere (Forster et al. 2007), which makes it
important to track them in order to assess the overall benefits of
greenhouse gas reduction strategies.
Since issues of transboundary air pollution were highlighted
in Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992) there have been considerable
Box 2.2 Sulphur pollution

Related goals
CLRTAP, EU Directives and WHO guidelines for human health
and ecosystems
Indicators
Sulphur emissions; exceedance of critical loads/levels
(thresholds above which harmful effects are observed)
Global trends
Mixed regional progress
Atmosphere
41
Figure 2.8 Regional trends in sulphur dioxide

emissions, 18502050
Million tonnes SO2 per year
Million tonnes SO2 per year
60
60
40
40
20
East Asia
East Asia
20
0
1850
0
1850
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1850
0
1850
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1850
0
1850
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1850
0
1850
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
Europe
Europe
North America
North America
South Asia
South Asia
Global Total
Global Total
1850
RCP 2.6
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
Emission trends from 18502000 and four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from 20002050, developed to
Emission trends from 18502000 and four Representative Concentracontribute to the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC, are shown for the four
tion Pathway (RCP) scenarios from 20002050, developed to
source regions and for the global total from the hemispheric transport
contribute to the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC, are shown for the four
of air pollution (HTAP) multi-model experiments.
source regions and for the global total from the hemispheric transport
of air pollution (HTAP) multi-model experiments.
Source: HTAP 2010
Source: HTAP 2010
42
As sulphur deposition has abated in Europe and North America,

acidification has also diminished and some freshwater
ecosystems have recovered, although critical loads are still
exceeded in some areas (Wright et al. 2005; Stoddard et al. 1999).
In Asia, the increase in emissions has put sensitive ecosystems at
risk from the effects of soil acidification (Figure 2.9). However, the
large-scale acidification of natural lakes experienced in Europe
and North America has not been seen in Asia, and may be unlikely
due to the nature of the regions soil and geology (Hicks et al.
2008). In 2005 it was estimated that the critical load for soils in
China was exceeded by sulphur deposition across 28 per cent of
the countrys territory, mainly in eastern and south-central China.
The area in exceedance is projected to decrease to 20 per cent
in 2020, given the implementation of current plans for emission
reductions (Zhao et al. 2009).
Further action on sulphur emissions is being taken through the
revision of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe. In Asia, action
is also being taken to improve the efficiency of energy use and
reduce sulphur dioxide emissions. For example, as part of its
five-year plans, China implemented flue-gas desulphurization
and the phasing out of small, inefficient units in the power
sector in a move to achieve the national goal of a 10 per cent
reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions between 2005 and 2010
(Zhang 2010).
Historic
RCP
8.5
Historic
RCP
RCP 6.0
8.5
RCP
RCP 4.5
6.0
RCP
RCP 2.6
4.5
40
20
20
0
1850
0
reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe and North

America, achieving the targets of the CLRTAP protocols, the
National Emission Ceiling (NEC) Directives of the European
Union (EU) and clean air legislation in Canada and the United
States (Figure 2.8). Key to the development of country targets
in Europe was the use of critical loads (deposition thresholds
above which harmful effects are observed) (Nilsson and
Grennfelt 1988). Successful implementation of legislation
brought about a drop of around 20 per cent in global emissions
between 1980 and 2000. Emissions from Europe and North
America were dominant until about 2000, when East Asian
emissions started to dominate. According to the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (Figure 2.8), global
sulphur dioxide emissions were projected to decline steadily
after 2005, and by 2050 to be 30, 50 or 70 per cent lower than
2000 levels. This set of four new pathways was developed for
the climate modelling community as a basis for near- and
long-term modelling experiments (van Vuuren et al. 2011;
Moss et al. 2010).
Global efforts are also being made to reduce sulphur emissions

from key sectors, including transport and shipping. The human
health effects of particulate matter measuring 2.5 micrometres
or less in diameter (PM2.5) are being tackled by lowering the
sulphur content of diesel fuels for example, UNEPs Partnership
for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (PCFV) is promoting the reduction
of sulphur in vehicle fuels to 50ppm or below worldwide
(UNEP 2012). Sulphur emissions from shipping have become
an important policy issue in Europe, while the International
Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution from Ships
(MARPOL) is committed to the progressive global reduction in
Figure 2.9 Areas at risk and timeframe for acidification damage in Asia
No exceedance
Exceeded soils with
a base saturation below 20%
Time in years to acidify to a

base saturation of 20%
0 25
100 200
25 50
More than 200
50 100
No data
This shows the time taken to acidify soils down to a base saturation of 20%,
which would be associated with a reduction in soil pH. Below a base saturation
of 20%, more serious impacts of acidification can occur (such as increases in
soil water aluminium which is toxic to plant roots). The projections are based
on emissions according to the IPCC SRES A2 scenario for 2050.
emissions of sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxides and particulate

matter (MARPOL 2011 Annex VI).
Nitrogen compounds
Human activity linked to energy use and food production has
more than doubled the amount of reactive nitrogen circulating in
the environment over the past century (ENA 2011). This is emitted
to the atmosphere as nitrogen oxides (NOX), mainly from the
transport and industry sectors, and ammonia (NH3) and nitrous
oxide (N2O), mainly from agriculture. They have multiple effects
on the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, freshwater and marine
systems, and on human health, a phenomenon known as the
nitrogen cascade (Galloway et al. 2003). Nitrogen compounds
are precursors of atmospheric PM2.5, which has impacts on
human health, while nitrogen oxide is a precursor of tropospheric
ozone, which has impacts on health, crop yields, ecosystems and
climate. Nitrous oxide and tropospheric ozone are also important
greenhouse gases. Nitrogen deposition drives biodiversity loss
through eutrophication and acidification in terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems (Bobbink et al. 1998). However, it can also be of
Source: Hicks et al. 2008.
benefit to crop yields, and can increase carbon sequestration

through the stimulation of forest growth (ENA 2011).
Box 2.3 Atmospheric nitrogen pollution

Related goals
CBD, CLRTAP, EU directives and WHO guidelines for human
health and ecosystems
Indicators
Nitrogen oxides and ammonia emissions; nitrogen
deposition; exceedance of critical loads/levels thresholds
above which harmful effects are observed
Global trends
Mixed: reductions in nitrogen oxides in some regions;
ammonia emissions set to increase in all regions
Atmosphere
43
Deposition of reactive nitrogen compounds from agriculture, transport and industrial sources can lead to increased emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O)
and loss of biodiversity from ecosystems such as forests. Orchidpoet/iStock
Total global nitrogen oxide emissions increased until around

2000, but were expected to remain more or less constant
thereafter, with reductions in Europe and North America
compensating for the growth in emissions in Asia and all other
regions (Figure 2.10). Control measures in Europe where
road transport accounted for 40 per cent of emissions in 2005
succeeded in reducing total nitrogen oxide emissions by 32
per cent between 1990 and 2005 (Vestreng et al. 2009), while
measures in the United States reduced emissions by 36 per cent
between 1990 and 2008 (IJC 2010). In Asia, emissions have
continued to increase over the past two decades, with the growth
rate itself accelerating during this period (Figure 2.10). Emissions
from international shipping are estimated to have risen from 16
million tonnes in 2000 to 20 million tonnes of nitrogen dioxide
(NO2) in 2007 (IMO 2009).
Global ammonia emissions, largely from the agricultural
sector, have increased fivefold since the middle of the last
century and are projected to continue to climb in all regions
with the possible exception of Europe, where they have
decreased slightly and may stabilize (Figure 2.10) (EEA 2009).
Nevertheless, there is a lack of concern and focus on this
issue in Europe, and there is often resistance to major changes
from the farming community. In most other regions ammonia
is not regulated under major emission control laws. However,
the Gothenburg Protocol of CLRTAP is being revised with more
stringent targets and is likely to lead to a further reduction in
emissions in Europe.
Despite these improvements, nitrogen-based air pollution
from agriculture, industry and traffic in urban areas contributes
significantly to PM2.5 concentrations as secondary nitrate and
ammonium particles, which are reducing peoples life expectancy
by several months across much of Central Europe (ENA 2011).
44
In Africa, Asia and Latin America, where control of nitrogen

emissions is not a high priority, projections show increases in
emissions of both nitrogen oxides and ammonia (Figure 2.10).
In some regions, especially in Africa, lack of monitoring capacity
is a major issue. To address this, more policy emphasis on these
substances in these regions will be required, especially with
regard to emissions from the agricultural, energy, industrial and
transport sectors, while ensuring that there is adequate nitrogen
fertilizer available for food production.
Current technology can deliver significant reductions in emissions
of nitrogen oxide, but growth in certain sectors, particularly
transport, can counteract control measures. Changed management
practices will be needed to reduce ammonia emissions, and more
fundamental consideration of agricultural policy and practice,
as well as changes in consumption patterns of meat and dairy
products, are required if large reductions are to be achieved.
Rising atmospheric nitrogen deposition will lead to environmental
effects associated with the nitrogen cascade (Galloway et al.
2003), including impacts on plant diversity. The Convention on
Biological Diversity has recognized nitrogen deposition as an
indicator of the threat to biodiversity (CBD 2010b) and especially
to sensitive ecosystems that receive a total nitrogen deposition
above 10 kg per hectare per year (Figure 2.11). However, the full
impact is difficult to estimate as there is little quantification of the
effects on biodiversity outside Europe and North America.
Designing effective policies to balance the positive impacts
of nitrogen deposition, such as increases in crop yields and
carbon sequestration, and the negative impacts, such as loss of
biodiversity and increased greenhouse gas emissions, underlines
the necessity for a truly integrated approach to nitrogen
management in the environment.
Figure 2.10 Regional trends in emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia, 18502050
NOX , million tonnes (expressed as NO2) per year
NH 3 , million tonnes per year
40
20
East Asia
10
20
0
1850
40
1900
1950
2000
2050
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
1900
1950
2000
2050
20
Europe
10
20
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
40
1850
20
North America
20
10
1850
40
1900
1950
2000
2050
20
South Asia
10
20
0
1850
140
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
70
Global Total
120
100
80
1850
60
Historic
RCP 8.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
50
40
60
30
40
20
20
10
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
0
1850
Emission trends from 18502000 and four RCP scenarios from 20002050, developed to contribute to the Fifth Assessment of the IPCC, are shown
for the four regions and for the global total from the HTAP multi-model experiments. Total nitrogen oxide emissions (left) remain more or less
constant at global scale while global ammonia emissions (right) are projected to increase in most scenarios.
Source: HTAP 2010
Atmosphere
45
Figure 2.11 Trends in nitrogen deposition to protected areas, 20002030
Nitrogen deposition classes

Exceeds 10 kg per hectare and is increasing
Exceeds 10 kg per hectare and is decreasing
Between 5 and 10 kg per hectare and increasing
Note: Dark orange indicates areas protected under the Convention on Biological Diversity where total
nitrogen deposition is relatively high and is estimated to increase by 2030, green areas where it is
still relatively low but increasing, and light orange where it is high but is decreasing.
Source: Bleeker et al. 2011.
Particulate matter
Control of particulate matter has achieved mixed progress
worldwide. In Europe and North America, as well as some cities
in Latin America and Asia, emissions of PM10 particles of
10 micrometres in diameter or less have been reduced, but
they remain a major pollutant in many other cities in Asia and
Latin America. Very few cities in Africa monitor air pollutants;
however, of the few that do, many show PM10 concentrations in
excess of WHO guidelines (WHO 2012). Outdoor concentrations
in high-income countries come close to the WHO PM10 guideline
of 20 micrograms per m3 (Figure 2.12). In Africa, the most
widespread issue is indoor levels of particulates. Regulating these
pollutants is complex because they are composed of a variable mix
Box 2.4 Particulate matter

Related goals
Protect human health
Indicators
PM levels
Global trends
Mixed progress in relation to WHO guidelines, with significant
reductions in the EU and North America and some Latin
American and Asian cities, but mostly high concentrations
in urban areas in Asia and Latin America; data for Africa is
insufficient, but some cities have high PM levels
46
of primary emissions and secondary pollutants, where the original

emissions are transformed in the atmosphere. An additional
challenge for cities is the elimination of particulate hotspots.
Particulate matter, especially the finer PM2.5, is the most
important air pollutant causing damage to human health
(WHO 2011; Carnelley and Le 2001). The prime sources of
particulate matter relate to the energy, transport and industry
sectors, but open burning of solid waste and crop residues are
also important sources. Health research worldwide has shown
that there is no safe threshold for exposure, as even very low
levels cause health damage (WHO 2006, 1999). Impacts on
health are predominantly associated with respiratory and
cardiovascular illnesses, but the range of effects is broad
for both acute and chronic exposure. Based on exposures
to particulate matter in 2004, WHO estimated that annually
5.3 per cent of premature deaths worldwide, about 3.1 million
people, are attributable to air pollution 2 per cent to outdoor
urban pollution and 3.3 per cent to indoor pollution which is
more than from all other environmental risks combined (Table
2.4) (WHO 2009). However, a more recent study estimated
3.7 million premature deaths due to outdoor anthropogenic
PM2.5 alone, as it used a different method that includes exposure
in rural areas, does not have a low-concentration threshold, and
used updated concentration-response relationships (Annenberg et
al. 2010). Worldwide, approximately 41 million disability-adjusted
life years (DALYs) the sum of potential healthy life years lost
due to illness are attributed to solid fuel and methods use
with about 18 million, or 44 per cent of the total, occurring in
sub-Saharan Africa (UNDP and WHO 2009). Household energy
Table 2.4 Global burden of disease due to particulate air pollution

Air pollution type
Premature deaths
Morbidity (DALYs)
Urban outdoor
1.15 million = 2.0% of deaths worldwide

0.61 million males and 0.54 million females
8% of lung cancer deaths
5% of cardiopulmonary deaths
3% of respiratory infection deaths
8.7 million DALYs
Indoor

0.89 million males and 1.08 million females
21% of lower respiratory infection deaths
35% of chronic obstructive pulmonary deaths
3% of lung cancer deaths
0.9 million deaths due to pneumonia among children younger than five years
41 million DALYs
Total air pollution
49.7 million DALYs
Note: DALYs disability adjusted life years: the sum of potential healthy life years lost due to illness.
Source: WHO 2009
interventions, which reduce dependence on traditional fuels

and methods for cooking and heating, clearly have the potential
to improve health and promote achievement of the MDGs. Even
in high-income countries such as the United Kingdom, PM2.5 is
estimated to have contributed to 29000 premature deaths and
the loss of 340000 life-years in 2008 (COMEAP 2010), despite
considerable progress in reducing concentrations.
Recent assessments of the long-range transport of air pollution
indicate that intercontinental transport of particulate matter
is contributing to exceedances of public health standards and
visibility targets. Long-range transport of particulates may be
responsible for 380000 premature deaths worldwide, of which
75 per cent are attributable to (mineral) dust PM2.5 (HTAP 2010).
The impacts of air pollution from natural sources are an emerging
atmospheric issue requiring attention, and will be discussed in
the subsequent section on atmospheric governance.
Various measures, including technological improvements to
vehicles, increased transport and energy efficiencies and cleaner
fuels and filters, have been successful in developed countries
and to some extent in developing ones. However, while the
latter are catching up in the use of cleaner technologies, such
efficiencies are being compromised by a rapid increase in
emission sources, for example fuel use for energy and transport.
Where indoor particulates are concerned, global partnerships are
promoting cleaner energy and improved cooking stoves.
Most developed and developing countries have adopted
ambient air quality standards (Figure 2.12), but concentrations
of particulates in most cities exceed the levels recommended by
WHOs ambient air quality guidelines for protecting human health
and ecosystems (Figure 2.13). Most of the PM10 standards in
developing countries are less stringent than the interim targets set
by WHO to promote a progressive reduction in air pollution. WHO
has also recommended PM2.5 guidelines, but many countries have
yet to adopt standards and monitoring practices. In Asia in 2010,
for example, only four out of the 22 countries have standards for
PM2.5 supported by monitoring. There is growing interest in the

health impacts of micrometre and sub-micrometre particles,
as discussed below in the section on emerging issues.
Projections of a 20 per cent reduction in PM2.5 emissions by 2020 in
Europe are expected to lead to a 40 per cent fall in the associated
years of life lost compared to the year 2000; nonetheless, PM2.5 air
pollution is still expected to shorten statistical life expectancy by 4.6
months (Amann et al. 2011). However, if the new National Emission
Ceilings in Europe are implemented the benefits will outweigh
the costs 1237 times depending on the valuation method
(AEA 2010), and PM emissions could be reduced by 3550 per
cent depending on the portfolio of measures. Meanwhile, the
US Environmental Protection Agency reports that lowered levels
of ambient PM2.5 and ozone due to the US Clean Air Act are
projected to result in avoided mortalities valued at US$1.2 trillion
in 2010 and US$1.8 trillion in 2020 (2006 dollars). Reductions in
exposure to particulate matter account for more than 90 per cent
of these projected and realised benefits (USEPA 2010).
Using traditional cooking methods with biomass as a fuel causes

severe indoor pollution by particulates and significant outdoor
concentrations of black carbon and other particles. Stillpictures/nbsp
Atmosphere
47
Figure 2.12 National ambient air quality standards and WHO guidelines for PM10
24-hour air quality standard

and WHO equivalent PM10,
microgrammes per m3
50 (AQG)
5175 (IT3)
76100 (IT2)
101150 (IT1)
More than 151
(above IT1)
No standard
No data
Note: AQGWHO 24-hour Air Quality Guidelines.

ITWHO 24-hour Interim Target.
Source: Vahlsing and Smith 2010
Figure 2.13 Urban PM10 trends in selected regions

and cities, 19932009
PM10, micrograms per m3
250
200
150
100
50
0
1993 1995
2000
Delhi, India
Being, China
United States (310 sites)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Bangkok, Thailand
2005
Source: Government of NCT of Delhi 2010; Being Statistical Yearbook;

USEPA; Brazilian Statistic and Geographic Institute; Companhia de
Tecnologia de Saneamento Ambiental; Fundao Estadual de Engenharia
e de Meio Ambiente; City of Cape Town; EC 2011; WHO 2006
Tropospheric and surface ozone

Tropospheric ozone (O3) in the lower atmosphere, from 010 up
to 20 km above the Earths surface, is responsible for ozones
impact on warming. Ground-level or surface ozone refers to
concentrations at ground level that affect both human health and
ecosystems. There is mixed progress in controlling tropospheric
ozone: peak concentrations have decreased in Europe and North
America, and North America, while background concentrations
have increased. In rapidly industrializing regions both
background and peak concentrations have been steadily rising
(Royal Society 2008).
WHO guideline
Note: Air quality data come from a variable number of monitoring sites.
48
2009
So Paulo, Brazil
Cape Town, South Africa
EU-27
There are some uncertainties that need to be resolved to inform

better policy making for particulate matter and health. These
include the concentration and impact of particle sizes and a
better understanding of the nature of primary and secondary PM
pollution in different locations through monitoring, emission
inventories and modelling, as well as through the use of source
apportionment and estimation of the economic value of health
impacts. Efforts to harmonize ambient air quality standards
and the building of capacity have the potential to fast-track PM
reduction in developing countries, amplifying the successful
policies and technologies applied in Europe and North America
and in some Asian and Latin American cities.
Ozone causes harm in three main ways. Firstly, surface ozone

damages human health and its impact is considered second
only to particulate matter. It is responsible for an estimated
0.7 million respiratory deaths globally each year (Anenberg
et al. 2010), more than 75 per cent of which are in Asia. Ozone
Box 2.5 Tropospheric ozone

Related goals
Protect human health, crop yields, ecosystems and climate
Indicators
Precursor emissions; ozone levels
Global trends
Mixed progress in relation to CLRTAP targets: some
reductions in EU and North America and mostly
increasing concentrations in Asia; data for Africa
is insufficient
Figure 2.14 Sources of ozone over polluted regions

of the northern hemisphere, 1850 and 2000
Surface ozone concentration, ppbv
50
Anthropogenic (regional sources)
Anthropogenic (transported)
Natural
sources
40
Stratosphere
30
20
can also have chronic health effects resulting in permanent lung

damage (Royal Society 2008).
10
Secondly, surface ozone is the most important air pollutant

causing damage to vegetation (Emberson et al. 2009; Ashmore
2005), diminishing crop yields and forest productivity and
altering net primary productivity. Estimates suggest, for
example, that ozone-induced yield losses range between
3 and 16 per cent for four staple crops maize, wheat, soybean
and rice which translate into annual global economic losses
of US$1426 billion (HTAP 2010).
Lastly, ozone is the third most important greenhouse gas after CO2
and methane (IPCC 2007), but is classified as a short-lived climate
forcer due to its residence time in the atmosphere of just days to
weeks. Tropospheric ozone is estimated to have been responsible
for a change in radiative forcing of +0.35 (-0.1, +0.3) watts per m2
since pre-industrial times, compared to a combined anthropogenic
radiative forcing of +1.6 (-1.0, +0.8) watts per m2 (IPCC 2007).
These ozone-induced changes are thought to be responsible
for 516 per cent of the global temperature change since preindustrial times (Forster et al. 2007). Reductions in biomass
caused by ozone also influence the amount of carbon sequestered
within terrestrial ecosystems. This effect is estimated to increase
atmospheric CO2 concentrations such that the additional radiative
forcing could exceed warming due to the direct radiative effect of
tropospheric ozone in the atmosphere (Sitch et al. 2007).
1850
Note: ppbv - parts per billion by volume.
2000
Source: HTAP 2010
industrial times due to increases in methane, and the remainder

to increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide
and volatile organic compounds other than methane (HTAP
2010). The origin of ground-level or surface ozone relevant to
effects on human health and ecosystems across the polluted
regions of the northern hemisphere is 2025 per cent from the
stratosphere and a similar proportion from natural precursor
sources including lightning and emissions from soils, vegetation
and fire, along with oxidation of naturally occurring methane. The
anthropogenic contribution thus typically exceeds 50 per cent
over these regions (Figure 2.14).
Ozone is not directly emitted into the atmosphere but rather is

formed when precursor pollutants nitrogen oxides and volatile
organic compounds, including methane, and carbon monoxide
react in the presence of sunlight. As such, ozone concentrations
tend to be higher at some distance tens to thousands of
kilometres downwind of precursor pollutant sources, causing
ozone to pollute at the local, regional and hemispheric scale.
Photochemical reactions account for approximately 90 per cent
of the ozone in the troposphere, with the remaining 10 per cent
directly transported from the stratosphere. Around 30 per cent
of tropospheric ozone is due to anthropogenic emissions, with
40 per cent of the change in the global ozone burden since pre-
Surface ozone does more damage to food crops than any other air
pollutant. Evgeny Kuklev/iStock
Atmosphere
49
than in 1990, leading to reductions in short-term peak ozone

concentrations to daily peak values of around 60 micrograms
per m3 of air. In contrast, mean ozone concentrations at many
locations have been increasing due to a variety of different
factors. For example, local emission reductions of nitrogen
oxides, and hence nitric oxide, remove a key mechanism of ozone
destruction and can result in increases in concentrations in urban
areas (Royal Society 2008). There is also evidence of background
ozone concentrations increasing by up to 10 micrograms per m3
of air per decade since the 1970s (Royal Society 2008) due to
changes in stratospheric ozone incursions, hemispheric transport
and ozone formation responding to climate change. This will
increase both mean and peak ozone levels.
Ground-level ozone is one of the major contributors to city smog. T. Kimura
Elevated ozone concentrations tend to be associated with

regions experiencing high levels of uncontrolled emissions from
industrial and urban centres as well as seasonal periods with
high solar radiation. This causes high variability in global and
seasonal concentrations. Regions in North America, Europe and
Asia have been identified as having a high anthropogenic ozone
load (Figure 2.15).
The targets defined for tropospheric ozone in the United Nations
Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region are now being
exceeded at many locations. Coordinated action in Europe,
however, has resulted in emissions of nitrogen oxide and volatile
organic compounds currently being 30 and 35 per cent lower
Global photochemical modelling studies performed for the HTAP

(2010) assessment provide estimates of changes in surface
ozone concentration for those regions that currently show the
highest concentrations. These data indicate recent reductions in
surface ozone in North America and Europe, which are likely to be
due to effective controls of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic
compounds over the past two decades in response to the US
Clean Air Act and CLRTAP and EU targets in Europe. In contrast,
trends in Asia are continuing upwards due to continued rapid
industrialization across the region (Figure 2.15). However, these
regional trends may hide large local variations.
Future changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations have been
explored using a number of different global photochemical
models for a variety of emission scenarios and provide variable
results (Figure 2.16). The HTAP (2010) assessment used a mean
from six global models to assess the implications of emission
changes between 2000 and 2050 following the RCP emission
Figure 2.15 Regional changes in concentrations of surface ozone, 19602000

Change, ppbv
4
East Asia
Europe
North America
South Asia
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Note: The graphs are based on results

from six global photochemical models
that contributed to the HTAP analyses.
Changes are referenced to surface ozone
in 2000.
-10
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: HTAP, 2010
50
Figure 2.16 Projected changes in surface ozone concentrations over polluted regions of the northern
hemisphere, 20002050
Change, ppbv
6
East Asia
Europe
North America
South Asia
4
2
0
-2 RCP scenarios
RCP 8.5
RCP 6.0
-4
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Note: The graphs are based on results

from six global photochemical models
that contributed to the HTAP analyses.
Changes are referenced to surface
ozone in 2000.
-6
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: HTAP 2010
scenarios. The outlook for ozone concentrations is heavily

dependent on global and regional emission pathways.
Assessment of the effectiveness of policies introduced to control
ozone requires an extended global monitoring network covering
rural as well as urban locations. Improved understanding of
ozones impact on human health and ecosystems and how
climate change will affect its formation, as well as how ozone
acts in combination with other stressors such as global warming
and excessive nitrogen deposition, will also be important. The
growing interest in ozone as a short-lived climate forcer and the
associated human health, arable-agriculture and ecosystem
benefits that its reduction might bring (UNEP/WMO 2011) make
this a pollutant of particular interest for policy intervention.
Progress on internationally agreed goals
There are two examples of substantial progress in solving issues

and achieving targets: protection of the stratospheric ozone layer
and the removal of lead from petrol.
Stratospheric ozone layer
Global regimes to address stratospheric ozone depletion include
the 1985 Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone
Layer and its 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that
Deplete the Ozone Layer. The latest scientific assessments
confirm the success of the action taken under the Montreal
Protocol to eliminate consumption of ozone-depleting
substances (Figure 2.17) (WMO 2011; UNEP 2010).
Stratospheric ozone protects humans and other organisms
because it absorbs ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation from the sun.
In humans, heightened exposure to UV-B radiation increases
the risk of skin cancer, cataracts and suppression of the
Box 2.6 Stratospheric ozone

Related goals
Protection of the stratospheric ozone layer
Indicators
Consumption of ozone-depleting substances; atmospheric
burden; annual extent of the Antarctic ozone hole
Global trends
Significant progress
immune system. Excessive UV-B exposure can also damage

terrestrial plant life, single-cell organisms and aquatic
ecosystems. In the mid-1970s, it was discovered that the
thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer was linked to the
steady increase of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used for
refrigeration and air conditioning, foam blowing and
industrial cleaning in the atmosphere.
The most severe and surprising ozone loss which came to
be known as the ozone hole was discovered to be recurring
in springtime over the Antarctic. Thinning of the ozone layer
has also been observed over other regions, such as the Arctic
(Manney et al. 2011) and northern and southern mid-latitudes.
Despite the drastic reduction in consumption of ozone-depleting
substances (Figure 2.17), their concentrations in the stratosphere
remain high (as shown by the Ozone Depleting Gas Index (ODGI),
Figure 2.18) as they have long atmospheric lifetimes. Figure 2.18
Atmosphere
51
Figure 2.17 Consumption of ozone-depleting

substances, 19862009
Figure 2.18 Reduction of ozone-depleting

substances in the stratosphere, 19942009
Ozone-depleting potential (ODP), million tonnes
Ozone Depleting Gas Index
1.8
100
1.6
95
1.4
90
1.2
85
1.0
80
0.8
75
0.6
0.2
0
Mid-latitudes: 17% recovery

Antarctic: 31% recovery
70
0.4
65
Note: ODP tonnes take account of the

dierent ozone-depleting potential of
various ozone-depleting substances.
1985
1990
1995
60
2000
2005
2010
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: UNEP Ozone Secretariat 2011
2010
Source: NOAA GMD 2011b
shows a 31 per cent recovery from a peak in 1994 at mid-latitudes

and a 17 per cent recovery in the Antarctic.
The hole in the Antarctic ozone layer is the clearest manifestation
of the effect of ozone-depleting substances: springtime Antarctic
total column ozone losses continue to occur each year, with the
extent affected by meteorological conditions. Figure 2.19 shows
the development of Antarctic ozone depletion over the last three

decades, measured from 19 July to 1 December each year. The
largest ozone hole on record occurred in 2006 (WMO 2011).
Model simulations for an ozone depletion scenario without the
Montreal Protocol, the World Avoided scenario, show that there
would have been a 300 per cent increase in the UV radiation at
Figure 2.19 Antarctic ozone hole extent, 19802010

Million km2
Million km2
18
18
12
12
6
6
0
0
1980
1980
1982
1982
1984
1984
1986
1986
1988
1988
1990
1990
1992
1992
1994
1994
1996
1996
1998
1998
2000
2000
2002
2002
2004
2004
2006
2006
2008
2008
2010
2010
Source: RNMI 2011; NASA and ESA

Source: RNMI 2011; NASA and ESA
52
Figure 2.20 The World Avoided modelled UV index, 1975, 2020 and 2065
June 1975
December 1975
Expected future
Expected future
June 2065
December 2065
World avoided
World avoided
June 2020
December 2020
June 2020
December 2020
June 2065
December 2065
UV index
0.0
50.0
Source: based on Newman and McKenzie 2011
Atmosphere
53
Despite the successful implementation of certain Montreal

Protocol provisions, some issues remain regarding the capture
of ozone-depleting substances in old equipment and the
destruction of collected or stockpiled appliances.
Removal of lead from petrol
The goals in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation to reduce
exposure to lead have largely been met, with most countries
having phased out lead in petrol since 2002, although there is
evidence that leaded petrol is still sold in at least six countries
(Figure 2.21).
The side of an old gasoline pump with a sign cautioning that it

contains lead. Tim Messick
mid-northern latitudes or a 550 per cent increase in UV radiation

at the mid-latitudes by 2065 compared to 1980 levels (Figure
2.20) (Newman and McKenzie 2011). Such a drastic increase
in UV-radiation would have had serious consequences for both
human health and the environment. In the United States alone, it
is estimated that 22 million cases of cataract will be avoided for
people born between 1985 and 2100 and 6.3 million skin cancer
deaths will be avoided up to the year 2165 as a result of the
Montreal Protocol (USEPA 2010, 1999).
The most recent amendment of the Montreal Protocol, in 2007,
accelerated the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
contributing to a reduction in global warming potential (GWP) of
about 18 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions.
The current phase-out of ozone-depleting substances is expected
to lead to recovery of the ozone layer at different times in different
regions (WMO 2011). For the world as a whole, annually averaged
total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels between
2025 and 2040, but this will take until mid-century in the Antarctic,
with small episodic Antarctic ozone holes likely to persist even
at the end of the 21st century (WMO 2011). Annually averaged
total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between
2015 and 2030 over northern mid-latitudes, while for southern
mid-latitudes it is projected to recover between 2030 and 2040.
Box 2.7 Lead in petrol

Related goals
Prevention of exposure to lead
Indicators
Number of countries with leaded petrol
Global trends
Globally phased out except in six countries
54
Lead poisoning, at all levels of exposure, causes adverse and

often irreversible health effects in humans, particularly children,
and accounts for about 9 million DALYs or around 0.6 per cent
of the global burden of disease (WHO 2009). Acute exposure to
high levels of lead affects the brain and central nervous system,
causing coma, convulsions and even death. Lead can also
adversely affect the immune, reproductive and cardiovascular
systems, even at relatively low levels (WHO 2010). There is no
threshold of exposure under which adverse effects cannot be
detected (Lanphear et al. 2005; Schneider et al. 2003; Lovei
1998; Schwartz 1994).
While exposure to lead and lead poisoning may be due to many
different sources and products including paints and pigments,
electronic waste, cosmetics and toys, traditional medicines,
contaminated food and drinking water systems lead in petrol
has been the biggest contributor to global environmental lead
contamination (WHO 2010).
A health-based regulation to remove lead from petrol in the
United States was made in 1973 after the US Environmental
Protection Agency concluded that lead emissions caused serious
damage to the nervous system and serious impacts on the health
of children in particular (Bridbord and Hanson 2009). Similar
conclusions in Japan led to it becoming the first country to market
unleaded petrol and, by 1981, less than 3 per cent of petrol sold
there was leaded (Wilson and Horrocks 2008).
From the period 19761980 to the period 19992002, the
United States saw a 98 per cent reduction in the proportion of
children aged one to five with levels of more than 10 micrograms
of lead per decilitre of blood (CDC 2005). Other studies
worldwide showed a strong correlation between decreased use
of lead in petrol and reductions of lead in blood (Figures 2.22
and 2.23) (Thomas et al. 1999).
Interventions to prevent lead poisoning have demonstrated very
large economic benefits. An analysis of the direct medical and
indirect societal costs associated with lead poisoning in children
in the United States found these to be US$43 billion annually,
even at the relatively low levels of exposure to lead at the time
(Landrigan et al. 2002). Another economic assessment, in this
case for the full lifetime productivity of people, estimated that the
increases in child intelligence, and thus their in-lifetime economic
productivity, resulting from the removal of lead from petrol
produced a benefit of between US$110 billion and US$319 billion

in each birth cohort in the United States (Grosse et al. 2002).
According to Gould (2009), for every US$1 spent to reduce
lead hazards, there would be a benefit of US$17220, a better
cost-benefit ratio than that for vaccines, which have long been
described as the single most cost-beneficial medical or public
health intervention. Another methodology that uses GDP
extrapolation applied to published literature showed the global
benefits of the phase-out of lead in petrol to be US$16 trillion

per year, with a best estimate of US$2.45 trillion per year, roughly
4 per cent of global GDP (Tsai and Hatfield 2011).
Recent evidence on health impacts has led the US Environmental
Protection Agency to tighten its rolling three-month average air
quality standard for lead from 1.5 micrograms of lead per m3 of
air in 1978 to 0.15 micrograms per m3 in 2008 (USEPA 2008).
The WHO annual ambient air guideline for lead remains at 0.5
Figure 2.21 Leaded petrol phase-out, 2002 and 2011

2002
2011
Unleaded
Dual
Leaded
Unknown
Source: UNEP 2011b
Atmosphere
55
Figure 2.22 Petrol and blood lead levels in Sweden

following the phase-out of lead in petrol, 19762004
Figure 2.23 Blood lead levels in the United States

following the phase-out of lead in petrol, 19762008
Lead in petrol,
tonnes
1 800
100
Lead in blood,
micrograms per litre
70
1 600
60
1 400
50
1 200
Blood lead levels among

children 3-12 years of age
1 000
800
200
0
1976
40
30
600
400
% of children
1985
10
1990
1995
2000
0
2004
Source: EEA 2011
micrograms of lead per m3 of air (WHO 2000). The removal of

lead from petrol and the consequent reductions in health risks
is an outstanding global success story, with the complete global
elimination of lead in petrol expected within a few years.
EMERGING ISSUES
60
40
20
Lead in petrol sold

in Sweden
1980
80
The most important new issue in the study of the atmospheric

environment is the role of short-lived climate forcers, especially
methane, tropospheric ozone and black carbon (UNEP/WMO
20
0
1976 1988 1991 1998
1980 1991 1994
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: CDC 2012, 2003
2011). A subset of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are also important

short-lived climate forcers (UNEP 2011c).
Black carbon particles in the atmosphere have a significant impact
not only on human health but also on climate. They darken snow
and ice surfaces, lower their albedo and increase their absorption
of sunlight, which, along with atmospheric heating, exacerbates
the melting of snow and ice around the world, including in the
Arctic, the Himalayas and other glaciated and snow-covered
Snow and ice cover in the Himalayas is affected by aerosols, including black carbon. Arsgera
56
The graph shows the percentage of children

in the United States aged 15 years with
blood lead levels of 10 micrograms per
decilitre or more. Note variable data periods
ATMOSPHERIC GOVERNANCE AND AN INTEGRATED

APPROACH TO MANAGEMENT
The production of bricks in traditional kilns is a locally significant

source of black carbon in South Asia. Alexander Kataytsev/iStock
regions. This affects the water cycle and may increase risks of
flooding. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and an important
precursor for ozone generation. Methane, black carbon and
tropospheric ozone are fundamentally different from the longerlived greenhouse gases as they remain in the atmosphere for
a relatively short time. Reducing black carbon and methane
emissions now will slow the rate of climate change within the first
half of this century (Shindell et al. 2012; UNEP/WMO 2011).
A second major emerging issue is the health effect of fine
particles of natural origin. Every year, very large amounts of
soil-derived dust and particles from wildfires engulf major
populated areas. These can include soil particles from arid
regions being deposited on coastal cities of China, Saharan dust
reaching cities in Africa and the Mediterranean, and dust from
drought-affected inland areas being deposited on cities in the
United States and Australia. In addition, smoke from wildfires
commonly raises particulate concentrations in Africa, Siberia, the
Mediterranean, the United States, South East Asia and Australia.
These particles can have major impacts on human health and
a recent study suggests that almost 300000 excess deaths per
year can be attributed to fine particles of natural origin (Liu et al.
2009a, 2009b). The sources can, however, be at least partially
controlled (Chapter 3). Major interventions to re-vegetate
degraded landscapes are continuing in several countries and the
2003 ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution is an
example of an international agreement aimed at addressing the
international transport of particles generated from forest burning.
As understanding of the relationship between particle size, the
number of particles and health impacts has improved, concern has
grown about the impacts of fine particles (smaller than
2.5 micrometres in diameter) and ultrafine particles (1 micrometre
and sub-micrometre sizes) on respiratory and cardiovascular
health (Schmid et al. 2009; Valavanidis et al. 2008). As the volume
of evidence is rapidly growing, it is likely that in the next few
years air quality standards and guidelines to protect health by
controlling exposure to ultrafine particles will be developed and
become a focus of air quality policy, monitoring and management.
A number of new approaches to address the challenges of
climate change have been proposed, including carbon capture
and storage and geo-engineering (IPCC 2005; Rasch et al. 2008).
In this section a simple analytical framework based on the level

of concern for the different issues, the relative cost of addressing
the problems, and the complexity of managing atmospheric
issues is used to evaluate the governance of atmospheric
problems. It suggests there is no one-size-fits-all solution to
most atmospheric problems (Levy et al. 1993). The use of targets
and timetables that worked for stratospheric ozone depletion
may stall negotiations over climate change (Sunstein 2007).
Emissions trading schemes that worked well for the reduction
of sulphur dioxide in some developed countries may need to
be complemented by other measures in developing countries
(Chang and Wang 2010). Many emission sources release both
greenhouse gases and air pollutants; some air pollutants have
an additional effect on the climate; and reducing consumption of
ozone depleting substances also reduces their impact on climate.
There will be a growing need for decision-making frameworks and
enabling environments that explicitly recognize the integrated
nature of the atmosphere.
The elimination of lead from petrol was made easier by a
cost-effective alternative that proved easy to communicate to
politicians and other stakeholders. With the well-timed support
of international initiatives such as the UNEP Partnership for
Clean Fuels and Vehicles, one country after another introduced
lead-free fuels (Hilton 2006).
Though there was no global binding agreement on the phaseout of lead in petrol, there are parallels with the phase-out of
ozone-depleting substances as a relatively manageable problem
with cost-effective solutions and a high level of concern. For the
elimination of substances that harm the ozone layer, governments
agreed to the Vienna Convention, setting in motion an
international negotiation process that culminated in the Montreal
Protocol. The protocol became the model for other international
agreements that called for a series of targets and timetables to
eliminate ozone-depleting substances in the developed world,
and for the creation of a multilateral fund to finance replacement
technologies for developing countries beginning to manufacture
CFCs (Benedick 1998). The process of arriving at this agreement
helped raise concern, lower costs and clarify complexities.
Progress with other pollutants has been more uneven. For example,
in the case of sulphur dioxide, existing technology, affordable
abatement costs and growing understanding have made the issue
increasingly manageable in much of the developed world. However,
while target setting and the installation of flue-gas desulphurization
have become common, growth in the number of coal-fired power
plants has overwhelmed efforts to reduce emissions. Consequently,
levels of acid deposition in East Asia remain high.
The health impacts of particulate matter make its control the
highest priority. However, measures can be costly and complex
due to a multiplicity of industrial, transport, energy, commercial,
domestic and natural sources, especially in developing countries.
Various measures, such as technological improvements
Atmosphere
57
of emissions (Chapter 15) such as in the way electricity is

generated, the efficiency with which energy and resources are
used, and the management of terrestrial ecosystems (Chapters 3
and Chapter 10). Consumption levels and production processes
may require the introduction of approaches such as a circular
economy in which material flows are either made up of biological
nutrients designed to re-enter the biosphere, or materials
designed to circulate without entering the biosphere (Braungart
et al. 2007). Such changes take time and, in the short term,
existing cost-effective options need to be rolled out as far and as
rapidly as possible to deliver early emission reductions that put
the world on a path towards achieving established climate goals.
A compact electric car, intended for urban use, charges its battery in a
special charging station. iStock/code6d
in vehicles, increased engine efficiency, cleaner fuels and

particulate filters, have been successfully applied in different
cities. Across the developed world urban levels of particulate
matter began to fall sharply in the 1950s and 1960s. Cleaner
technologies have enjoyed some success in reducing emissions
in developing countries, but have not been sustained in rapidly
growing cities where high demands for motorization, energy
and industrial products have increased aggregate emissions.
Both the complexity of the issue and the costs have hampered
progress. To reduce exposure to indoor particulate matter
national policies, including on rural development and energy,
need to be mainstreamed into overall development policy.
Governance issues related to climate change have a high level
of complexity, mixed levels of concern and long lead times
between actions and benefits, often beyond political timescales.
The governance approach for climate change has in many ways
followed a similar approach to that of the ozone layer, but with
different results due to differences in the nature of the issues.
A growing degree of concern led to a global agreement, the
UNFCCC, which allowed negotiation of the Kyoto Protocol. This
was intended to initiate the process of reducing anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions, but even if fully implemented was
never designed to be enough to stay within the UNFCCC agreed
limit of a 2oC temperature increase.
58
Mitigating near-term climate change the warming likely to be

experienced over the next two to four decades is important to
prevent damage to vulnerable ecosystems such as the Arctic, and
to vulnerable societies such as those in drought- or flood-prone
regions. Addressing CO2 is not likely to be sufficient to mitigate
warming in these timescales, partly because it is long-lived.
Fortunately, near-term warming can be addressed by additional
complementary policy action that reduces concentrations of
short-lived climate forcers, including black carbon, methane and
tropospheric ozone (Box 2.8) (Shindell et al. 2012; UNEP/WMO
2011). Addressing these short-lived substances is an example of an
integrated approach to atmospheric governance that provides an
opportunity for policy development to meet multiple goals in a costeffective way. The improved awareness of atmospheric brown clouds
emphasizes the integration of different atmospheric issues (Box 2.9).
There is increasing evidence that the Antarctic ozone hole has affected
the surface climate in the southern hemisphere (Polvani et al. 2011),
and further links also exist between climate change and ozonedepleting substances as many are also very strong greenhouse gases.
Indeed, avoiding emissions of CFCs has brought about a significant
contribution to climate change mitigation (Velders et al. 2007).
These interactions and links between different atmospheric
issues provide opportunities to improve progress in reaching
internationally set goals, maximizing benefits and avoiding
policy conflicts. To make rapid progress, scientific knowledge
needs to be properly presented to policy makers to allow them to
deal more effectively with the complexity of the issues. The way
in which options are analysed, costs and benefits weighed up,
and evidence-based policies developed, requires considerable
improvement. This will require closer interaction between
the science and policy communities, increased stakeholder
participation, capacity enhancement and technology transfer.
The approach of developing binding national targets within a

global framework has so far not delivered emission reductions
that would help achieve climate targets and internationally
agreed goals. In the medium term, a promising approach appears
to be the development of nationally appropriate mitigation
actions or NAMAs to encourage countries to contribute to
actions in a national context.
CONCLUSIONS, GAPS AND OUTLOOK
The achievement of global climate goals will most likely

require a transformational change addressing the main drivers
Targets to protect the global atmosphere from air pollution are

being met for stratospheric ozone depletion and lead in petrol.
Concern for the impacts of atmospheric issues at global, regional

and national scales has led to considerable efforts to control
emissions to meet internationally agreed goals and targets. Some
issues have been effectively dealt with. For others there has only
been partial success, with improvements in some regions but
problems remaining in others.
Box 2.8 Complementary actions to limit near-term climate change and improve air quality
Implementing a limited number of measures targeting black
carbon, tropospheric ozone and methane has the potential to
reduce the rise in global temperature projected for 2050 by
0.5oC roughly half of the warming in the reference scenario
(Figure 2.24) substantially reducing the rate at which the
world warms over the next few decades (Shindell et al. 2012;
UNEP/WMO 2011). About half of this reduction could be
attributed to reductions in methane emissions and about half
to measures addressing incomplete combustion and targeting
black carbon emissions. The projected reduced warming in
the Arctic, about 0.7oC lower than the reference scenario in
2050 according to this research, would be likely to be greater
than that seen globally (UNEP/WMO 2011). There are further
benefits for regional climate as several detailed studies
of the Asian monsoon suggest that regional forcing by
absorbing particles substantially alters precipitation patterns
(UNEP/WMO 2011). As the reductions in atmospheric forcing

are largest over the Indian sub-continent and other parts of
Asia, the emission reductions might have a substantial effect on
the Asian monsoon, mitigating disruption of rainfall patterns.
Full implementation of the identified measures would also
substantially improve air quality, reducing premature deaths
globally due to significant reductions in indoor and outdoor
air pollution, and improving crop yields. The reductions in
PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone concentrations resulting from
the implementation of the measures could, by 2030, avoid
2.4 million premature deaths (within a range of 0.74.6
million deaths) and the loss of 52 million tonnes of the global
production of maize, rice, soybean and wheat each year
(within a range of 30140 million tonnes), or 14 per cent
(UNEP/WMO 2011).
Figure 2.24 Projected effects of measures to reduce CO2, methane and black carbon emissions in
relation to a reference scenario
Temperature dierence relative to 18901910, C
4.0
3.5
3.0
Reference
2.5
2.0
CO2 measures
1.5
1.0
CH4 + BC measures
0.5
CO2 + CH4 + BC
measures
0.0
Implementation by 2030 of black carbon (BC) and methane

(CH4) measures identified in the UNEP/WMO Integrated
Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone, together
with measures to reduce CO2 emissions, starting now, would
improve the chances of keeping the Earths temperature
increase to less than 2oC relative to pre-industrial levels.
The bulk of the benefits of methane and black carbon
measures are realized by 2040. The lines on the right-hand
side of the graph represent uncertainty in the estimates.
The projections are added to the observed deviation of
temperature from the 18901910 mean (up to 2010).
-0.5
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source: UNEP/WMO 2011
Source: UNEP - WMO 2011
For the majority of the world, however, most air quality guidelines
are not being met as there is insufficient implementation of
policies. Meanwhile, important ecosystems are experiencing
pollution loads in excess of critical thresholds. In the near
term, atmospheric issues such as particulate matter and other
pollutants could, with adequate commitment and resources, be
effectively addressed by the wider implementation of existing
policies and technologies.
The current development trajectory, based on existing models

of international governance, is unlikely to meet internationally
agreed atmospheric goals, especially those for mitigating
climate change and reducing the health impacts of
pollutants. Carefully selected approaches at national and
regional scales need to be encouraged and facilitated by
global coordination to increase the chance of reaching the
targets in the near term.
Atmosphere
59
Box 2.9 Atmospheric brown clouds

Atmospheric brown clouds, which have been observed
as widespread layers of brownish haze, particularly in
South Asia (Figure 2.25), are regional-scale plumes of air
pollutants consisting mainly of aerosol particles such as
black carbon and precursor gases that produce aerosols and
ozone. These clouds significantly affect the regional climate,
the hydrological cycle and glacial melting. The pollutants
can be transported by long-range and regional transport
phenomena that push this haze towards the Himalayan

ridge, where plain-to-mountain wind systems favour airmass transport to high altitudes (Bonasoni et al. 2010).
The widespread nature of atmospheric brown clouds and
findings related to their diverse and adverse effects have
increased the need for the development of science, capacity
and emission-reduction measures within an integrated
framework.
Figure 2.25 Atmospheric brown cloud over part of South Asia
Bangladesh
India
Bay of Bengal
N
0
100
200 km
Source: NASA-MODIS
Climate change presents the global community with one of the

most serious challenges to achieving development goals. Serious
impacts from climate change are unlikely to be avoided on the
basis of current emission reduction pledges. In the medium term,
progress could be made by encouraging further national pledges,
taking into account individual country circumstances, and by the
wide application of current technological and policy approaches.
Measures to reduce emissions of short-lived climate forcers could
contribute to reducing the temperature increase in the near term
but, ultimately, a transformation in the way energy is provided
and the efficiency with which electricity and other resources
60
are used, coupled with a shift in consumption and production

patterns and investment in innovation, will be required to
achieve long-term climate goals. Such transformative change
will also affect other atmospheric problems. But action should
start now with the measures that are currently available while
transformation takes place. Such action would bring significant
benefits, particularly if the atmospheric issues and required
policies were considered in an integrated way.
Table 2.5 provides a summary of progress and a prognosis for
the development of key atmospheric issues in their relation to
goals and targets.
Table 2.5 Progress towards goals (see Table 2.2)

A: Significant progress
B: Some progress
C: Very little to no progress

D: Deteriorating
Key issues and goals
State and trends
X: Too soon to assess progress

?: Insufficient data
Outlook
Gaps
1. Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
Climate change
limit the increase in global
average temperature to
less than 2oC above preindustrial levels
Rising CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, and

increasing concentrations; SLCF concentrations remain
high and some are increasing

Temperature increases observed globally and regionally
over last decades
Improvement in monitoring and

reporting of pledged actions;
financial and technical support
to developing countries; policy
Likely to breach the 2oC limit without integration of climate change
further commitment and action
and other atmospheric issues
Efficiency improvements and
some progress towards meeting
Kyoto targets
2. Protect the ozone layer by taking precautionary measures to control total global production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) equitably,
with the ultimate objective of eliminating them
Stratospheric ozone
depletion
Zero consumption of ozonedepleting substances
About 98% achievement (in 2009) in reducing the

production and consumption of substances covered by the
Montreal Protocol
Decreasing atmospheric concentrations
Continued decrease in
atmospheric concentrations of
ozone-depleting substances;
recovery of ozone layer by midcentury
Stabilization of the Antarctic ozone hole
Recovery and destruction of

ozone-depleting substances;
from equipment, chemical
stockpiles, foams, and other
products not yet released into
the atmosphere
3. Reduce respiratory diseases and other health impacts resulting from air pollution, with particular focus on women and children
Particulate matter (urban/
outdoor)
Outdoor concentrations of particulate matter in most parts

of Europe and North America are within or are approaching
WHO and EU guidelines; concentrations in Africa and Asia
remain high
Slow progress in developing

countries in Africa and Asia, as
any efficiencies are likely to be
offset by increased consumption
and levels of activity
Monitoring, mainly in developing

countries; standards for
particulate matter, political will
and awareness of the issues in
some developing countries
Particulate matter (indoor)

Households cooking using
biomass
In poor rural areas of the world, for example in parts of

Africa and Asia, there is little access to cleaner cookstoves
and fuels, and indoor particulate matter is very high;
significant health impacts, especially for women and
children.
Continued poverty and other

barriers will prevent the transition
to modern fuels or use of
improved cooking facilities
Monitoring and associated

technology in developing
countries; mechanisms to
enable purchase of efficient
cooking stoves, institutional
strengthening, and political will
to address the issue
Tropospheric ozone
WHO guidelines for health
Peak tropospheric ozone concentrations decreasing in

Europe and North America except in ozone hotspots
Further reductions in Europe

and North America will lead to
decreased ozone, but there will be
increases in precursors and ozone
elsewhere
More ozone and precursor

monitoring in developing
countries; awareness of the
issue
WHO guidelines and

national targets
4. Enhanced cooperation at international, regional and national levels to reduce air pollution, including transboundary air pollution and acid deposition
Tropospheric ozone
CLRTAP goals
Peak concentrations of ozone are decreasing due to

diminishing precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides, volatile
organic compounds, methane and carbon monoxide)
in Europe and North America except in ozone hotspots;
increasing concentrations elsewhere; background
concentrations increasing
Improvements in some regions

are being offset by an increase in
background ozone
Technology to minimize
emissions of ozone precursors;
monitoring in rural settings;
implementation of policies in
different sectors for different
precursor emissions; regional
and inter-regional cooperation
Sulphur dioxide
WHO guidelines
Sulphur dioxide emissions and concentrations have been

significantly reduced in Europe and North America
Overall sulphur dioxide emissions

will decrease due to global
desulphurization but increasing
emissions are expected in some
rapidly developing countries in Asia
Further sulphur dioxide emission

reductions, especially in Asia
Nitrogen dioxide concentrations globally remained constant

due to reductions in North America and Europe off-setting
slight increases in Africa, Asia and Latin America
In Africa, Asia and Latin America

where nitrogen emissions are
not high priority, increases
in both nitrogen oxide and
ammonia emissions are expected,
especially from agriculture and
motorization
Awareness of issues and policy

focus; improved technology to
minimize emissions of nitrogen;
understanding of long-range
transport and impacts in all
regions
Lead from other sources, such as

paint, has to be tackled globally
Policies and studies on lead in

paint from developing countries
CLRTAP emission targets

Nitrogen
WHO guidelines
CLRTAP emission targets
5. Prevention of childrens exposure to lead

Lead
Eliminate lead in petrol
Lead phased out in petrol globally except in six countries;

lead blood levels in children have gone down
Atmosphere
61
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C H A P T E R
AVTG/iStock
Land
Coordinating lead authors: Carol Hunsberger and Tom P. Evans

Lead authors: T. Mitchell Aide, Juan Albaladejo Montoro, Saturnino (Jun) M. Borras Jr.,
Hctor Francisco del Valle, Tahia Devisscher, Jason Jabbour, Shashi Kant,
David Lpez-Carr, Hillary Masundire, Narcisa G. Pricope (GEO Fellow) and
Roberto Snchez-Rodriguez
Contributing authors: Magdi T. Abdelhamid, Bjrn Alfthan, Fethi Ayache,
Asmeret Asefaw Berhe, Chizoba Chinweze, Jana Frlichov, Lawrence Hislop,
William K. Pan, Bjrn Schulte-Herbrggen, Jessica Smith, Carlos Souza Jr.,
Tracy L. Timmins (GEO Fellow) and Leo C. Zulu
Principal scientific reviewer: Jean-Pierre Ometto
Chapter coordinator: Jason Jabbour
Main Messages
Pressure on land resources has increased during
recent years despite international goals to improve
their management. The fourth Global Environment
Outlook (UNEP 2007) highlighted the unprecedented
land-use changes created by a burgeoning
population, economic development and global
markets. The outcome of those drivers continues
to cause resource depletion and ecosystem
degradation.
Economic growth has come at the expense of
natural resources and ecosystems. Many terrestrial
ecosystems are being seriously degraded because
land-use decisions often fail to recognize noneconomic ecosystem functions and biophysical
limits to productivity. For example, deforestation
and forest degradation alone are likely to cost the
global economy more than the losses of the 2008
financial crises. The current economic system, built
on the idea of perpetual growth, sits uneasily within
an ecological system that is bound by biophysical
limits. However, some market-based approaches that
attach value to ecosystem services offer incentives to
reduce environmental damage.
Competing demands for food, feed, fuel, fibre
and raw materials are intensifying pressures on
land. Demands for food and livestock feed are
increasing rapidly due to human population growth
and changing diets. Demand for biofuels and raw
materials have also risen sharply, driven by the
increased population, greater consumption and
biofuel-friendly policies. This simultaneous growth
is causing land conversion, land degradation and
pressure on protected areas. Climate change is
placing additional stress on productive areas. One
result is heightened tension between goals related to
production and those related to conservation.
Globalization and urbanization are aggravating
competing demands on land. These processes
66
66

expand and intensify the pressure on land systems

by increasing the distances between places where
products originate and where they are consumed.
The greater distances can obscure the drivers of
resource depletion and ecosystem degradation,
produce higher environmental costs due to
transport and infrastructure, and complicate the
negotiation of sustainable land management
practices. Large-scale international land deals are
both an emerging outcome of and a contributor to
this trend. Internationally coordinated responses
are needed to address related social and
environmental pressures.
Improved governance and capacity building are
crucial to achieving sustainable land management.
Many interventions meant to protect ecosystems
have failed because they were created without
recognizing local values or engaging local
communities in their design and implementation.
Capacity building across spatial and temporal
scales is needed to improve land management.
Current governance approaches include marketbased strategies such as the collaborative
UN programme for Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD),
centralized institutional strategies such as
certification, and decentralized strategies such as
community-based resource management. All offer
both opportunities and challenges for improving
land governance.
Potential exists to create more sustainable land
systems. To solve these complex problems, it
is critical to understand how diverse social and
ecological drivers affect land systems at local,
regional, national and global scales. A concerted
effort by international organizations, the scientific
community, and national and local institutions to
coordinate their actions can create the policy options
needed to achieve this goal.
INTRODUCTION
Changing climate patterns, economic globalization, population

growth, increasing use of natural resources and rapid
urbanization are putting pressure on terrestrial ecosystems
as never before, and virtually all of them are under stress.
Biophysical limits on what is available for human use are real
and there are strong signals that these limits are close to being
reached or have already been exceeded (Rockstrm et al. 2009).
Even so, the fact that some areas show recent gains in forested
area or land reclamation (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2010; Nepstad
et al. 2009; Bai et al. 2008) suggests that declines are not
inevitable, and indeed that recovery may be possible even
though original ecosystem functions may be modified or pressure
on ecosystems may shift elsewhere (Meyfroidt et al. 2010).
Growing demands for food, feed, fuel, fibre and raw materials
create local and distant pressures for land-use change (Lambin
and Meyfroidt 2011). The cascade of outcomes resulting from
these demands is complicated by urbanization and globalization,
which separate the production of goods from their consumption
over vast distances (Barles 2010; Kissinger and Rees 2010). The
central question is how these demands can be met or managed
in ways that recognize the joint imperatives of human wellbeing and environmental sustainability. Addressing this requires
careful examination of the social relations and biophysical
processes involved in managing terrestrial ecosystems, setting

priorities for policies and policy instruments, and considering the
likely distribution of implications, both positive and negative.
The fourth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) (UNEP 2007)
noted that increased demand for water, waste disposal and
food had led to unsustainable patterns of land use and land
degradation. It identified forest cover and composition, cropland
expansion, intensification of agriculture, desertification and
urban development as key topics in land-use change. GEO-4
concluded that continued inaction on land stewardship,
combined with increased climate change, would reduce social
resilience, making recovery from future stresses difficult or
impossible. This chapter provides an update on the state and
trends of global land systems including wetlands, explores
major and emerging issues influencing changes in land use,
examines the implications of recent changes for achieving
international accords, and suggests some broad responses.
INTERNATIONAL GOALS
The international goals selected to guide this chapter cover

vital targets related to food security, poverty reduction
and environmental sustainability (Table 3.1). This chapter
identifies biophysical, social, economic and political
factors that may enable or constrain their attainment.
Table 3.1 Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related to land
Major themes from internationally Johannesburg
Plan of
agreed goals
Implementation
(WSSD 2002)
Paragraph 40b
Millennium
Development
Goal 1
(UN 2000)
Promote food security
Reduce the proportion of people

who suffer from hunger
Improve access to food
Increase food production
Reverse the loss of environmental

resources
Millennium
Development
Goal 7
(UN 2000)
World Food Summit

Plan of Action (FAO
1996) Paragraph
33g
Ramsar
Convention
on Wetlands
(1971)
Reduce the deforestation rate and

increase forest coverage
Halt the destruction of tropical

forests
Stem the loss of wetlands

Combat desertification and
mitigate the effects of drought
Practise integrated land-use

planning and management
Integrate the principles of

sustainable development into
country policies and programmes
Recognize, maintain and develop

the multiple benefits of ecosystem
services (in addition to their
economic value)
United Nations
Convention to Combat
Desertification
(UNCCD 1994)
Article 2
X
X
Land
67
The stakes are high: as Chapter 16 demonstrates, failure

to achieve these targets could have severe impacts on
human well-being and environmental integrity.
Box 3.1 Eradicating hunger

Related goals
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
STATE AND TRENDS
This section uses selected indicators to gauge the

current state of agricultural land, forests, drylands,
wetlands, polar areas and human settlements, and
recent changes to these land covers and uses.
Indicators
Proportion of malnourished people
Global trends
Proportion decreasing, but absolute number increasing
Agriculture
Demands for food and livestock feed are rising rapidly due
to population growth, urbanization and changing diets that
include more animal products. One of the consequences of
these changes is the widespread expansion of agricultural
land allocated to livestock, both directly and indirectly through
cropland dedicated to animal feed production (Rudel et al.
2009; Naylor et al. 2005). At a time when water shortage and
land degradation remain threats to food security, accelerated
interest in biofuel, feeds and fibre in recent years imposes
competing demands on how agricultural land is used.
Agricultural land and production trends
In 2009, there were approximately 3.3 billion hectares of pasture
and 1.5 billion hectares of cropland globally, with the extent
and proportion of total land area varying greatly across regions
(Figure 3.1) (FAO 2012). In 2009, all regions except Europe
had a greater proportion of land area devoted to pasture than
to cropland. Although there has been only a slight increase in
total cropland extent over the past decade, there has been a
Most vulnerable communities

People who are food insecure due to chronic poverty, climate
variation or food price fluctuations
Regions of greatest concern
Africa, Asia and the Pacific
considerable change in the crops grown (Figure 3.2) (FAO 2012).

Maize is an important crop in all regions other than West Asia,
with the area harvested increasing by more than 25 per cent
across Africa and Asia and the Pacific between 2001 and 2010.
In total, approximately 160 million hectares of maize were
harvested in 2010. Asia and the Pacific have the largest area of
rice, but Europe and Africa experienced the greatest percentage
increases between 2001 and 2010 about 30 and 20 per cent
respectively. The dominant soybean-producing regions are Latin
Figure 3.1 Area in use for cropland and pasture in 2009, by region, and global change between 1960 and 2010
Area in 2009, billion hectares
Change in area, %
2.0
12
1.8
Pasture
Cropland
1.6
1.4
Cropland
10
Pasture
1.2
36.0%
1.0
0.8
0.6
30.7%
0.4
8.5%
68
13.6%
15.7%
0.2
0.0
26.9%
13.9%
8.5%
Africa
Asia and
the Pacific
8.4%
12.1%
2
54.3%
4.6%
Europe Latin America North West Asia

and
America
the Caribbean
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: FAO 2012
Maize field in the foreground of an ethanol plant in Midwest United States, where the most common feedstock used for ethanol production
continues to be maize. iStock/SimplyCreativePhotography
America and the Caribbean and North America, with the United
States, Brazil and Argentina the three largest producers. Asia
and the Pacific and Europe are the primary producers of wheat.
Increases in the area used for these crops have been
accompanied by overall growth in yields (FAO 2012). Globally,
the current yields of wheat, maize and rice have been estimated
at 64, 50 and 64 per cent of their potential respectively, but
the size of the yield gap varies greatly from region to region
under the influence of different factors (Neumann et al. 2010).
Larger gaps between actual and potential yields tend to occur
where low-input agriculture is practised (Licker et al. 2010).
Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean two regions where
crop area has expanded since 2001 still have relatively low
yields compared to North America and Europe; if region-specific
constraints can be assessed and overcome (Neumann et al.
2010), there may be potential to increase food production
in these regions while minimizing cropland expansion.
Agricultural productivity is limited by biophysical and other
factors. Extending conventional agriculture into uncultivated
lands requires mechanization to modify the surface, and
supplements in the form of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides
and irrigation water. Excessive use of machinery and chemical
supplements, however, breaks up soil structure, increases
erosion, chemically pollutes soil, contaminates groundwater
and surface water, changes greenhouse gas fluxes, destroys

habitat and builds genetic resistance to chemical supplements
(Blanco-Canqui and Lal 2010; Foley et al. 2005; Buol 1995).
With widespread adoption of intensive, mechanized, highinput agricultural practices, the rate of soil erosion has greatly
increased. Erosion in conventional agricultural systems
is now over three times higher than in systems practising
conservation agriculture, and over 75 times higher than in
systems with natural vegetation (Montgomery 2007). Globally,
soil erosion is contributing to the decline in agricultural land
available per person (Boardman 2006) as degraded land is
abandoned (Bakker et al. 2005; Lal 1996). Thus, the yield
gains achieved by these methods come with ecological costs.
In continuously cultivated, low-input agricultural systems, rapid
declines in soil fertility and yield, together with international
commodity price changes, continue to impact human wellbeing in agricultural communities (Koning and Smaling 2005).
Sustainable intensification techniques offer the potential to
improve soil fertility and yields in some situations while avoiding
some of the problems of high-input agriculture just presented.
While the future impact of climate change on global food
production is difficult to specify, substantial evidence suggests
that an increasing number of people will be directly affected by
climate change impacts on agricultural areas (World Bank 2010).
Land
69
Figure 3.2 Area harvested in 2010 and the change between 2001 and 2010, selected crops
MAIZE
RICE
SOYBEAN
WHEAT
Area harvested in 2010, million hectares

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Africa
Europe
2005
2010 2001
North America
West Asia
Change in area harvested, %
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
2001
2005
2010
2001
2005
2010
2001
2005
2010
Source: FAO 2012
70
Figure 3.3 Average food supply in 2007 and the change between 1998 and 2007, by region
2007, kilocalories per person per day
Change in kilocalories per person per day, %
4 000
Africa
3 500
6
3 000
2 500
2 000
Latin America
and the Caribbean
1 500
1 000
West Asia
Africa
Asia and Europe Latin America North

the Pacific
and the America
Caribbean
West Asia
Consumption trends
While the proportion of undernourished people has been
declining from 14 per cent of world population in 19951997
to 13 per cent in 2010 the absolute number rose over the
same period from 788 million to an estimated 925 million
due to population growth (Box 3.1) (FAO 2010b). Areas with
chronic food insecurity face many obstacles, including regional
conflicts, weak governance structures and a breakdown of
local institutions, all of which affect access to and distribution
of food (FAO 2010a). Many of the worlds undernourished
people live in areas that are also particularly vulnerable to
climate variability. Africa and Asia and the Pacific were the
regions with the lowest average food consumption in 2007
(Figure 3.3) (FAO 2012), but they were also the regions that
had experienced the highest percentage increase. While
the Asia and Pacific region is home to the largest number of
undernourished people, at 578 million, sub-Saharan Africa
has the highest proportion of undernourished people
about 30 per cent of its population in 2010 (FAO 2010b).
Forests
Europe
500
0
North America
Forests play a crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems and

provide a multitude of services such as shelter, habitats,
fuel, food, fodder, fibre, timber, medicines, security and
employment; regulating freshwater supplies; storing carbon
and cycling nutrients; and helping to stabilize the global
climate. Historically, forests have been under pressure due
to increasing demands for shelter, agricultural land, meat
production, and fuel and timber extraction, but in recent
-2
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: FAO 2011
decades this pressure has increased due to competing

demands for agricultural expansion and biofuel production,
rapid urbanization and infrastructure development, and
increased global demand for forest products. Forests are
also under increasing stress from changes in mean annual
temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and more frequent
and extreme weather events (Allen et al. 2010; Tiwari 2009).
Box 3.2 Forests

Related goals
Reduce deforestation and increase forest cover
Indicators
Net forest change
Global trends
Some forest gains in temperate areas; deforestation slowing
in some tropical countries; overall tropical deforestation
remains high
Forest-dependent people in tropical countries
Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean
Land
71
Forest area
Forests cover just over 4 billion hectares, 31 per cent of the
worlds total land area (FAO 2011). The majority of these are
boreal forests extending across northern and central Russia and
much of Canada and Alaska. Large expanses of tropical forest are
found in the Amazon, Africas Congo Basin and parts of South
East Asia. Temperate forests remain in a patchy distribution
across the United States, Europe and the Asian mid-latitudes.
The rate of forest loss from both deforestation and natural
causes is slowing, but remains alarmingly high (Box 3.2). At
the global level, annual forest loss decreased from 16 million
hectares in the 1990s to approximately 13 million hectares
between 2000 and 2010 (FAO 2011). The highest rates of
tropical forest loss over this period occurred in South America
and Africa (Figure 3.4). Some rapidly developing countries
that suffered extensive deforestation in the 1990s, including
Brazil and Indonesia, have significantly reduced their rates
of tropical forest loss (FAO 2011; Ometto et al. 2011), while
less developed nations in Latin America and Africa continue to
experience high rates of loss. Although much of the developed
world has experienced net reforestation since the late 1800s
as a result of rural-urban migration and farm abandonment
(Walker 1993; Mather 1992), natural factors such as drought,
forest fire and insect attacks have exacerbated forest loss in
recent decades. However, the key drivers of forest loss are
population growth, poverty, economic growth, land pricing,
international demand for timber and other forest products,
insecurity of the rights of local people, and incomplete valuation
of forest ecosystems (Carr et al. 2005; Lambin et al. 2001).
Clearance in the Amazon, where a substantial portion of deforestation

is attributed to cattle ranching and large-scale soybean production.
iStock/luoman
Plantations
Forest plantations, generally cultivated for industrial purposes,
increased by 50 million hectares globally between 2000
and 2010, reaching 264 million hectares or 7 per cent of
the total forest area (Table 3.2) (FAO 2011). Asia accounted
for 28 million hectares, or 58 per cent of this increase.
Generally, monoculture plantations tend not to enrich local
biodiversity, but they do provide ecosystem services including
timber, carbon and water storage and soil stabilization.
Figure 3.4 Change in forest area by region, 19902010

19902000
20002005
20052015
North America
Europe
Africa
-5
72
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Net change, million hectares per year
Source: UNEP 2011c; FAO 2010a
Table 3.2 Plantation area in 2010 and the increase between 2000 and 2010, by region
Africa
Asia and the

Pacific
Europe
Latin America and

the Caribbean
North America
West Asia
World
15 409
121 802
69 318
14 952
37 529
5 073
264 084
Annual increase, thousand

hectares
245
2 948
401
407
809
115
4 925
Annual increase, %
1.75
2.82
0.6
3.23
2.46
2.6
2.09
Plantation area 2010, thousand

hectares
Note: FAO data has been applied to GEO regional categories, except for Afghanistan, Turkey and Iran, which are included in West Asia.
Source: FAO 2011
Productive and protective forest area

The global forest area designated for the production of timber
and non-timber products declined from about 1.16 billion
hectares in 2000 to about 1.13 billion hectares in 2010, an
annual decrease of about 2.91 million hectares or 0.25 per cent
(FAO 2011). However, the global forest area designated for
protection of soil and water increased from about 272 million
hectares in 2000 to about 299 million hectares in 2010, an
annual increase of some 2.77 million hectares or 0.97 per cent
(FAO 2011). Similarly, the global forest area designated for
biodiversity conservation has increased from around 303
million hectares to about 366 million hectares, an annual
increase of about 6.33 million hectares or 1.92 per cent
(FAO 2011). The main reason for the decrease in forest area
designated for production is deforestation, and for the increase
in protective forest area is afforestation (FAO 2010a).
Forest management and certification
The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and the Programme for
the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) are the two
main forest management certification organizations. There
was an increase in certified forests of about 20 per cent per
year between 2002 and 2010 under these two agencies (UNEP
2011c). However, in 2010 about 10 per cent of the total forest
area was under FSC- or PEFC-certified forest management (UNEP
2011c). These trends indicate that while there is improvement
in forest management, much work remains to be done.
Forest carbon stock
Forests are considered an important sink for atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) because of their ability to store carbon
in their biomass and soil (Anderson et al. 2011). More than
75 per cent of the total terrestrial biomass carbon stock and
more than 40 per cent of the soil organic carbon stock are
found in forest ecosystems (Jandl et al. 2007). In the 1990s,
forest carbon sequestration was equivalent to approximately
one-third of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion
and land-use change (Bonan 2008). Boreal forests store
more carbon in their soils than tropical forests, while tropical
forests store much more carbon in their plant biomass
(Prentice et al. 2001). Pan et al. (2011) estimate that global
forest systems constituted a total carbon sink of 2.40.4

billion tonnes of carbon per year from 1990 to 2007.
Fires are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions from forests
(van der Werf et al. 2010). Boreal forest ecosystems are prone to
frequent and severe wildfires leading to large carbon emissions.
Amiro et al. (2001) estimated that during the period 19491999,
on average 2 million hectares of the Canadian boreal forest
burnt annually (ranging from 0.3 to 7.5 million hectares in any
given year), emitting a yearly average of 276 million tonnes
of carbon (ranging from 3 to 115 million tonnes in any given
year). Sukhinin et al. (2004) estimated that on average 7.7 million
hectares of area burnt annually between 1995 and 2002 in eastern
Russia and that 55 per cent, 4.2 million hectares, of that area was
forest. Gillett et al. (2004) found that recent increases in area burnt
in Canada are a result of anthropogenic climate change. In the
future more fires, more area burnt and longer fire seasons may be
expected in temperate and boreal regions (Flannigan et al. 2009).
Drylands, grasslands and savannahs
Drylands, grasslands and savannahs experience high spatial

and temporal variability in rainfall, resulting in dramatic
differences in plant growth, habitats and human livelihoods.
Drylands cover approximately 40 per cent of the worlds land
surface and are home to more than 2 billion people, 90 per cent
of whom are in developing countries (UNEP 2007). However,
the spatial extent of drylands remains uncertain due to
variations in ecosystem sub-types, data variability and the
different classes and thresholds applied to remotely sensed
data, making global comparisons challenging (Reynolds et al.
2007). Grasslands range from very dry, almost desert-like, to
humid types. Savannahs are mixed tree-grass ecosystems,
ranging from almost treeless grasslands to closed-canopy
woodlands that occupy large areas in the tropics and sub-tropics,
particularly in Africa, Latin America and Australia (Mistry 2000).
Trends in drylands, grasslands and savannahs
Fluctuations in precipitation are a major driver of change
in plant cover, but grazing intensity has also been directly
linked to long-term dryland degradation (Miehe et al. 2010).
Transformation of rangelands to cultivated croplands is
Land
73
leading to a significant, persistent decrease in overall

dryland plant productivity. Sietz et al. (2011) indicated
that the most important factors causing vulnerability in
drylands are water stress, poverty, soil degradation, natural
agronomic constraints and isolation from political centres.
Net primary productivity (NPP) is the net amount of carbon
captured by vegetation through photosynthesis each year
(Melillo et al. 1993). Approximately 2 per cent of global
terrestrial NPP is lost yearly due to dryland degradation,
equivalent to 410 per cent of dryland potential NPP (Zika

and Erb 2009). Figure 3.5 shows how dryland degradation,
measured in terms of NPP loss, is most widespread in the
Sahelian and Chinese arid and semi-arid regions, followed by
the Iranian and Middle Eastern drylands and to a lesser extent
the Australian and Southern African regions. Sustainable
development in drylands will rely on techniques that improve
soil fertility, conserve soil and water and increase agricultural
efficiency, such as mulch farming, conservation tillage
and diverse cropping systems (Mortimore et al. 2009).
Figure 3.5 Global extent of drylands and human-induced dryland degradation
Dryland areas
Dry sub-humid
Semi-arid
Arid
Dryland degradation
Loss of net primary productivity

0%
1%-5%
5%-10%
10%-20%
20%-30%
30%-40%
40%-50%
50%-70%
More than 70%
74
Source: Zika and Erb 2009
Figure 3.6 UNCCD operational objectives and achievements, 2010

Operational
objective
Performance
indicator
Advocacy,
awareness and
education
Information
and awareness
Policy
framework
National
action plan
alignment
Current achievement level
25%
5%
Overall
target
Target
due
30% of global population informed about

desertification, land degradation and drought and/or
synergies with climate change and biodiversity
2018
80% of aected country Parties with a

formulated/revised national action plan aligned to the
20082018 Strategic Plan
2014
Joint planning
of the
Rio conventions*
72%
100% of aected country Parties with joint national

action plans in place or functional mechanisms to
ensure synergies between the three Rio conventions
2014
Science,
technology
knowledge
Dryland
monitoring
38%
60% aected country Parties with

established and supported national dryland
monitoring systems
2018
Capacity
building
Dryland
capacity-building
90% of aected country Parties

implementing dryland-specific
capacity-building initiatives
2014
Finance and
technology
transfer
Integrated
investment
framework
50% of aected country

Parties with
integrated investment frameworks
2014
71%
15%
* Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
The figure evaluates progress towards the UNCCD targets, showing substantial progress in some areas and highlighting a need for improvement in
others. Particularly encouraging is the high level of awareness about dryland degradation globally. Challenges have been encountered in aligning
national action plans and developing integrated investment frameworks. The assessment process has also revealed problems in data availability and
reporting methods (UNEP-WCMC 2011), potentially enabling UNCCD to address these lessons learnt prior to the next reporting cycle in 2012.
Source: Prepared by UNEP-WCMC
As an international response to desertification, land degradation

and drought in drylands, the United Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification (UNCCD) was adopted in 1995 and
has since been signed by 194 Parties 193 countries plus
the European Union. Following mixed results in its initial
implementation phase (UNCCD 2007), Parties to the Convention
adopted a ten-year strategic plan for 20082018 to revitalize
it. The plan includes a results-based management approach
built on a set of specific objectives and indicators, and a
new monitoring, assessment and reporting process the
performance review and assessment of implementation system.
Wetlands
In 2003, the European Space Agency, in collaboration with

the secretariat of the Convention on Wetlands of International
Importance (Ramsar Convention), launched the GlobWetland
project to demonstrate the current capabilities of Earth
observation technology to support inventorying, monitoring

and assessment of wetland ecosystems. The project revealed
a major gap between the findings of the Earth observation and
wetland communities (Jones et al. 2009), with considerable
inconsistency in global wetlands estimations (Table 3.3).
The conversion of wetlands continues. For both inland and
coastal wetlands, the most salient drivers of change are
population growth and increasing economic development,
which in turn promote infrastructure development and land
conversion including agricultural expansion (Wood and van
Halsema 2008). Other direct drivers affecting wetlands are
deforestation, increased withdrawal of freshwater, diversion of
freshwater flows, disruption and fragmentation of the landscape,
nitrogen loading, overharvesting, siltation, changes in water
temperatures and invasion by alien species (Fraser and Keddy
2005). In 14 deltas analysed by Coleman et al. (2008), over
Land
75
Table 3.3 Estimates of global wetland area

Region
Global review of wetlands resources

(MA 2005b; Finlayson et al. 1999)
Million hectares
% of global wetland area
Million hectares
% of global wetland area
Africa
125
10
131
14
Asia
204
16
286
32
Europe
258
20
26
Neotropics
415
32
159
17
North America
242
19
287
31
36
28
1 280
100
917
100
Oceania
Total
half of the studied wetland area of 1.6 million hectares had

been irretrievably lost over a 14-year period due to natural
causes, conversion to agriculture or industrial use. Global
climate change may exacerbate the loss and degradation
of coastal wetlands. For example, Syvitski et al. (2009)
analysed the effects of human activities on delta subsidence,
susceptibility to flooding and vulnerability to sea level rise,
concluding that the area of deltas at risk of flooding could
increase by more than 50 per cent by the end of this century.
The deforestation, drainage and conversion to agriculture
of peatland results in substantial emissions of CO2 and
nitrous oxide (Mitra et al. 2005). Globally, peatlands cover
3 per cent of the worlds land surface, about 400 million
hectares, of which 50 million hectares are being drained
and degraded, producing the equivalent of 6 per cent of all
global CO2 emissions (Crooks et al. 2011). Avoiding further
wetland degradation could result in significant climate
change mitigation (Wetlands International 2011).
Because of increasing demand for land for food, feed,
biofuels and materials, the loss of wetlands and associated
ecosystem services is likely to continue (CA 2007). Globally,
coastal wetlands such as mangroves are continuing to decline
by more than 100 000 hectares, over 0.7 per cent, per year,
but that rate of loss has slowed relative to the 1 per cent
per year of the 1980s. Although, in most regions, rates
of loss have decreased compared to the 1980s and
1990s, mangrove losses in Asia accelerated again during
20002005 (UNEP-WCMC 2010). Despite these losses, the
Asia and Pacific region holds the largest spatial extent of
mangrove systems more than 50 per cent of the global
total. Other major mangrove areas are in northern Latin
America, Eastern and Western Africa, and the Red Sea.
Polar regions
The Arctics permafrost the top 3.5 metres of soil that remains
permanently frozen for 24 months or more contains the
largest deposits of organic carbon on Earth. But due to some
76
Global lakes and wetlands database

(Lehner and Dll 2004)
of the most rapid warming on the planet (McGuire et al. 2009;

Tarnocai et al. 2009), with temperatures in the permafrost having
already risen by up to 2oC over the past two to three decades
(AMAP 2011), this is likely to become a substantial source of
carbon emissions over the next century (Schuur et al. 2008).
The Arctics tundra and boreal forest ecosystems currently act
as a carbon sink (McGuire et al. 2009), but it is possible that
the Arctic region will become a net emitter over the course of
the 21st century (Schuur et al. 2008; Zimov et al. 2006) as
up to 90 per cent of near-surface permafrost is expected to
disappear due to thawing by 2100 (Lawrence et al. 2008).
Methane emissions, primarily from wetlands, also play an
important role in the carbon balance of the Arctic (OConnor
et al. 2010). Although just 2 per cent of global methane
emissions originate in the Arctic, this region has seen the
largest proportional increase in emissions, rising by nearly
a third between 2003 and 2007 (Bloom et al. 2010). Some
of these emissions originate in the escape of methane from
sequestration within hydrate crystals frozen beneath permafrost.
These methyl hydrates also occur in abundance beneath the
deep ocean floor and within continental shelves (OConnor et al.
2010). Methane is 25 times more effective at trapping heat in
the atmosphere than CO2 over a 100-year horizon (IPCC 2007).
Other climate-related land changes occurring in the Arctic
include the northward movement of tree lines, woody vegetation
encroachment into the tundra, and a longer growing season
resulting in an increase in plant productivity (Figure 3.7)
(Epstein et al. 2012; Walker et al. 2012; Callaghan et al.
2011; Wang and Overland 2004; Zhou et al. 2001; Myneni
et al. 1998). Whilst these processes remove CO2 from the
atmosphere, it is likely that the release of carbon from thawing
permafrost and other processes will outpace CO2 sequestration
by vegetation (Schuur et al. 2008; Zimov et al. 2006).
Environmental changes such as the northward advance of tree
lines, combined with rapid industrial development, create
challenges for traditional livelihoods such as reindeer herding.
Figure 3.7: Changes in Arctic vegetation, 19822005
Nevertheless, if well planned, urban areas can reduce the

overall pressure on land resources of a growing population.
Satellite-based studies calculate urban land cover at less than
1 per cent of the planets total land surface (Schneider et al. 2009).
However, the impact of urban areas on the global environment
cannot be measured only by their physical expansion. Some studies
estimate that 6070 per cent of total anthropogenic greenhouse
gas emissions are directly or indirectly related to urban areas,
with a few wealthy cities contributing the majority of emissions
(Dodman 2009). It is the concentration of population, economic
activities and wealth generation in urban areas that drives their
impact on the global environment, with demands for food, energy,
water and production materials that have significant consequences
for land-use change around the world (Grimm et al. 2008).
Increases in peak productivity

and growing season
Decline in productivity (forested

areas not recently disturbed by fire)
Source: CAFF 2010
Access to many areas on land, especially in northern Canada

and Russia, is becoming more difficult as ice roads melt earlier
and freeze later, severely affecting communities and industrial
development (AMAP 2011; Stephenson et al. 2011). At the
same time, because the seasonal Arctic Ocean ice cover is
decreasing in area, volume and duration, new economic
opportunities are presenting themselves, including increased
tourism, forestry, agriculture, and expanding oil, gas and mining
developments. Nonetheless, some communities in the Arctic
most affected by thawing permafrost and/or coastal erosion
are being forced to relocate (ACIA 2005), and further research
is needed to foresee how living conditions are likely to change
and to evaluate possible adaptation options, taking the regions
indigenous peoples into particular consideration (AMAP 2011).
At the southern pole, the landmass of Antarctica also has a
profound effect on the Earths climate and ocean systems.
However, in contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic land mass is
99 per cent covered by glacial ice. The changes occurring in this
region are discussed in greater detail in Chapters 4 and 7.
Urban areas and human infrastructure
Urbanization has progressed at an extraordinary rate in recent

decades and this growth is projected to continue throughout the
century. Urban areas are the hubs of social processes, driving
many changes through material demands that affect land use
and cover, biodiversity and water resources, locally to globally.
Most of the understanding of urbanization as a land-change

process is based on individual case studies (Seto et al. 2010)
that reveal significant differences in urbanization processes
between regions and countries, and even within countries.
Ecological footprint analyses of cities provide a symbolic
parameter illustrating the impacts of those differences on the
local and global environment. For example, the inhabitants
of a typical city of 650000 inhabitants in the United States
collectively require 3 million hectares of land to meet their
domestic needs, while those of a similar-sized city in India
require just 280000 hectares (Newman 2006).
Urban trends
The UN Population Division projects that between 2007 and
2050, the worlds urban population will increase by more than
3billion, with almost all future population growth expected
to take place in the cities and towns of developing countries
(Montgomery 2008). By 2050, more than 70 per cent of Chinas
population and 50 per cent of Indias is likely to be urban, with
China expected to have 30 additional cities of more than 1 million
inhabitants and India 26 (Seto et al. 2010).
Urbanization is not a homogeneous process (Seto et al. 2010).
Recent studies suggest a significant increase in land requirements
for urban uses in the next 40 years potentially an additional
100200 million hectares (Bettencourt et al. 2007) (Figure 3.8).
This increase is expected to occur primarily in sprawled patterns
and to have major effects on greenhouse gas emissions, air
pollution and waste management (Lobo et al. 2009).
Very large cities exert local and global impacts on the environment,
for example the emission of greenhouse gases or aerosols that
have a dimming effect in the atmosphere. Small and medium
cities, despite their own environmental impacts, may have better
opportunities to improve their relationship with the environment
and social well-being, particularly in low-income and middleincome countries, where population will concentrate in the future
(Seto et al. 2010, Martine et al. 2008). Only 12 per cent of the total
urban population in developing countries lives in very large urban
areas of more than 10 million people, while 40 per cent lives in
cities of less than 1 million (Figure 3.9) (Montgomery 2008).
Drivers
77
Figure 3.8 Urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta, China, 19902009
The upper delta area shown in the left-hand image had over 7 million people in 1990, but has since more than tripled to over 25 million, with
the cities of Dongguan, Foshan, Guangzhou and Shenzhen beginning to merge into one continuous city. This intense urbanization has led to
the loss of productive farmland and natural areas, as well as creating a variety of environmental problems.
USGS EROS Data Center 2010 and UNEP 2011c
Figure 3.9 Distribution of the urban population of

developing countries, by city size
More than 10 million
15 million
12%
510 million
12%
36%
16%
500 0001 million
Each is illustrated with examples of impacts on land

resulting from these pressures, as well as opportunities
to move land management decisions towards social and
ecological outcomes in line with international goals.
24%
100 000500 000

Source: Montgomery 2008
78
MAJOR ISSUES IN LAND CHANGE
The changes in land use presented in this chapter are a

product of complex interactions between human actions
and biophysical processes. International goals provide one
set of guidelines for land management, but these are often
overshadowed by other pressures and competing demands.
Here, four major themes are explored that help to explain the
apparent movement away from achieving land-related goals:
economic growth at the expense of natural capital;
competing demands for land;
increased separation of production from consumption; and
governance challenges related to sustainable land
management.
Economic growth and natural capital
The global economic system is based on the pursuit of

perpetual and unsustainable growth. Distorted incentives
have reduced natural capital, while often rendering attempts
to curtail resource or energy use politically problematic

(Chapter 1) (Daly and Farley 2010; Dasgupta 2009). Simply put,
economic growth has come at the expense of natural capital.
Today, many terrestrial ecosystems exhibit degradation and
reduced resilience. This can be linked to the failure to account for
the vital functions of these ecosystems in economic cost-benefit
analyses. For example, financial pressures have encouraged
the irrigation and subsequent salinization of vast dryland
areas, making them very difficult to rehabilitate (Sakadevan
and Nguyen 2010). Wetlands continue to be drained for
agriculture and urban development, destroying their ability to
regulate water quantity and quality and buffer against extreme
weather events (Box 3.3). Deforestation and forest degradation
produce financially attractive short-term returns, but global
natural capital losses have been recently estimated at between
US$2 trillion and US$ 4.5 trillion each year (Kumar 2010).
Ecosystems have priceless spiritual, aesthetic and cultural
dimensions. They are also the cornerstones of economies, but
their real value remains effectively invisible in national profit
and loss accounts (TEEB 2010). Allowing the privatization of
profits from the extraction of natural capital at the expense of
more innovative and equitable land management approaches
is a pervasive problem across all land covers and uses.
Incentives that are narrowly focused on economic growth often
encourage land management that degrades ecosystem services,
Box 3.3 Restoring wetlands along the Mississippi

Wetlands can help control floods by absorbing and storing
high levels of precipitation. However, the Mississippi River
basin in the United States has historically been managed
by draining wetlands for agriculture and building dams and
levees to contain floodwaters, a strategy that has worsened
the impacts of flood events (Hey and Philippi 1995). The
coastal wetlands of the Mississippi Delta have likewise been
replaced with artificial flood control structures, compromising
ecosystem services such as soil formation, provision of
habitat for fish and crustaceans, and protection against
severe storms (Twilley and Rivera-Monroy 2009).
In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita brought into focus
the importance of maintaining wetlands as buffers against
natural hazards. The State of Louisiana has since assigned
37 per cent of revenues from new oil and gas projects to
coastal protection and restoration; combined with other
funds, this could provide up to US$1 billion per year over the
next 30 years (Day et al. 2007). Research suggests that an
investment of US$1015 billion in restoring the Mississippi
Delta could generate the equivalent of US$62billion by avoiding
losses from storm damage and reduced ecosystem functions
while gaining additional ecological benefits (Batker et al. 2010).
Box 3.4 The Mau Forests complex, Kenya
The Mau Forests complex in Kenya provides goods and services worth US$1.5 billion a year through water for hydroelectricity,
agriculture, tourism and urban and industrial use, as well as erosion control and carbon sequestration (TEEB 2010). Alternative
accounting has helped spur the government of Kenya to invest in rehabilitating the area and its vital ecological services, though
challenges remain in addressing the interests of people living there (UNEP 2011a).
Christian Lambrechts
Land
79
while including and valuing ecosystem services in accounting

systems can help protect and enhance them. Successful
strategies rest on improving understanding of ecosystem
functions and building that understanding into policies and
institutions (Daily et al. 2009). Indeed, recognition of the
multiple uses and multiple values of ecosystems can be used
to leverage resources for their protection (Boxes 3.3 and 3.4).
Over the past two decades, payment for ecosystem services
(PES) has gained attention as a mechanism with the potential
to account for services provided by ecosystems in market
transactions, build bridges and balance interests between the
users and providers of these services, and deal with the linked
challenges of conservation and poverty alleviation (Pascual
and Corbera 2011; Engel et al. 2008). Payment for ecosystem
services involves a suite of approaches linked to a broad
central idea: the transfer of resources among social actors
with the objective of creating incentives to align individual and/
or collective land-use decisions with the social interest in the
management of natural resources (Muradian et al. 2010).
The concept of PES offers several advantages over conventional
conservation approaches: it complements command-andcontrol and polluter-pays principles with more flexible,
incentive-based approaches; it is conditional and voluntary,
with the potential to promote equity, accountability and cost
effectiveness; and it can produce co-benefits for livelihoods
and contribute to poverty alleviation (Borner et al. 2010; van
Hecken and Bastiansen 2010). Positive land-use outcomes
have been achieved through some PES initiatives in, for
example, Colombia, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, where tree
cover has increased and degraded pasture decreased due
to a regionally integrated PES project (Chapter 12).
However, groups who oppose the idea of nature being
commoditized or traded have criticized the concept (Pascual
and Corbera 2011; Corbera et al. 2007). Furthermore, despite
promising initial benefits such as increased land-tenure
security, current evidence of PESs cost effectiveness and
the conditions under which it has positive environmental
and socio-economic impacts remains inconclusive,
particularly in developing countries with weak governance
(Pattanayak et al. 2010; Wunder et al. 2008).
Challenges ahead for PES focus on cost effectiveness, monitoring
capacity, enforcement, transparency and accountability, and clear
boundaries to land access and tenure rights (Borner et al. 2010).
Taking into account social norms and culture, building trust
between actors and dealing with power relations will ultimately
define benefit allocation strategies and successful long-term
implementation of PES (Bille 2010; van Hecken et al. 2010).
Competing demands for land
The challenge of feeding a growing human population has

been compounded by rising affluence in some regions.
Changing diets and increasing demand for biofuels and
other industrial materials such as timber have intensified
80
competition for land and pressures on terrestrial ecosystems.

Food security
To meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1c on reducing
hunger, global food production will have to increase and food
distribution improve. To meet MDG 7 and other environmental
goals, agriculture needs to reduce its current environmental
impacts (Figure 3.10).
Although estimates vary, the Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations (FAO) projects that to reduce the proportion
of developing countries populations that are chronically
undernourished to 4 per cent in the year 2050, world food
production will need to increase by 70 per cent from 2005 levels
(Bruinsma 2009). Although food consumption per person is
increasing across all regions, it is unevenly distributed and the
number of malnourished people continues to rise as more grain
is diverted to produce meat for those who can afford it. Livestock
and poultry can serve as an important source of protein in areas
of chronic food insecurity and provide an important buffer in
times of crop failure, but a disproportionate share of agricultural
land is dedicated to meat and dairy production for consumption
in developed countries. Such land use is less efficient in meeting
global food needs and comes with greater environmental
consequences than cropland (Steinfeld et al. 2006). For
example, it is estimated that the amount of grain fed to livestock
Figure 3.10 Food security and environmental goals

for agriculture by 2050
Minimum goals for 2050
Real food production
Total agricultural production
Food distribution and access

Resilience of food system
Food security
Environmental impacts
Water pollution
Greenhouse
gas emissions
Unsustainable water
withdrawals
Biodiversity loss
Minimum goals for 2050
Real food production

Total agricultural production
Greenhouse gas emissions
Biodiversity loss
Food distribution and access

Resilience of food system
Food security
Environmental impacts
Water pollution
Unsustainable water withdrawals
Each lobe represents the status of a particular theme, with the circle
defining the balance required to meet the goals. The upper figure
shows the current situation, reflecting a shortfall on food security
goals and excessive environmental impacts; the lower figure shows a
hypothetical situation in which all goals for 2050 are achieved.
Source: Adapted from Foley et al. 2011
in the United States is more than seven times that consumed

directly by the population (Pimentel and Pimentel 2003).
Meanwhile, about one-third of all food that is produced for
human consumption is wasted or lost approximately 1 300
million tonnes annually (Toulmin et al. 2011). The concept of food
security moves beyond the question of whether adequate food
is available and considers whether people have physical and
economic access to food (FAO 2008). This draws attention to a
broad set of social and political issues related to food distribution.
It will be challenging to meet future global demand for food
while avoiding, or at least mitigating, negative impacts on
forests, wetlands and other ecosystems and at the same
time reducing poverty, supporting livelihoods, and ensuring
food safety and animal welfare. There is little debate that
more land will have to be allocated to agriculture, but this
will not be sufficient without increasing yields and reducing
losses along the food supply chain. Climate change is likely
to complicate matters further by affecting crop yields in many
areas (Figure 3.11) (Ringler et al. 2010; Lobell et al. 2008).
A variety of agricultural approaches is likely to provide the
best outcomes for food security and environmental well-being.
High-input, intensive agricultural methods undeniably increase
agricultural yields, though these gains may come at the expense
of long-term soil fertility (Foley et al. 2005). Location-specific
approaches are also needed in order to achieve sustainable
land use based on biophysical as well as socio-economic
Figure 3.11 Projected changes in sub-Saharan African

crop yields due to climate change, 2050
Change in yield, %
5
Sugarcane
Millet Sorghum
Rice
-5
Maize
considerations (Chapter 12) (DeFries and Rosenzweig 2010),

while agroecology and urban agriculture can contribute to the
global food supply (Perfecto and Vandermeer 2010; Zezza and
Tasciottia 2010). Agricultural practices that conserve soils and
nutrients such as no-till farming (Chapter 12) can complement
efforts to restore degraded and abandoned agricultural land.
Meeting the global need for food will be one of the most
important challenges of this century, and a portfolio
of solutions including conservation agriculture, highyielding cultivars, and efficient and carefully managed use
of fertilizers is needed rather than promotion of a single
strategy. Advocates of genetically modified crops point out
their potential to increase yields while reducing the use of
agricultural chemicals (Brookes and Barfoot 2010; Fedoroff et
al. 2010), although resistance to their use remains, in part,
due to the uncertainty of potential risks to human health
and further loss of agricultural biodiversity (Chapter 5).
Cassava
-10
-15
The worlds food system faces increasingly complex and interconnected

challenges. Ralf Hettler/iStock
Sweet potato
and yam
-20
Wheat
-25
Source: Ringler et al. 2010
Meat production
Meat production has increased significantly during the past
two decades, outpacing the rate of population growth over
the same period (Figure 3.12). Large differences in meat
consumption exist both within and between countries,
ranging from an average of 83 kg per person per year in North
America and Europe to 11 kg per person per year in Africa
(FAO 2009). Population growth, urbanization and increasing
incomes are expected to continue to raise demand for meat,
particularly in developing countries (Delgado 2010).
Land
81
Figure 3.12 Change in global population and in

meat, fish and seafood supplies, 19922007
Change, %
40
Fish and
seafood
+32%
30
Meat
+26%
20
Global
Population
+22%
10
1992
1997
2002
2007
antibiotic resistance and disruption of nutrient cycling

(Steinfeld et al. 2006). Considering the entire commodity chain,
including deforestation for grazing and forage production,
meat production accounts for 1825 per cent of the worlds
greenhouse gas emissions, which is more than global transport
(UNEP 2009b; Fiala 2008; Steinfeld et al. 2006). Reducing meat
consumption in regions where it is relatively high could thus
bring a range of environmental benefits (Marlow et al. 2009).
Biofuels
An urgent search for renewable sources of energy has resulted
in policies that promote the use of biofuels. Increased
production of crops that can be used for multiple purposes
including food, feed or fuel such as oil palm, soy, maize
and sugar cane is indicative of this trend (Figure 3.14).
However, subsidies that promote biofuels have been linked to
distortions in the world food system, leading to increases in
food prices (Pimentel et al. 2009). Recent changes in the linked
production of food, feed and fuel have far-reaching impacts
for ecology as well as for social relations and vulnerability
(Bernstein and Woodhouse 2010; McMichael and Scoones
2010). While no energy source is completely problem-free,
biofuels present particular challenges to land use and terrestrial
ecosystems. This, combined with the recent rapid increase
in their production, is the reason for examining them here.
Source: UNEP 2011c
The environmental impacts of meat production depend on

intensity, extent and management. Nonetheless, growing
demand for meat worldwide has been an important driver of
deforestation in South America, as forest is cleared to plant
soy for livestock feed (Box 3.5). As meat production has grown,
so has the area harvested for soybean crops, which expanded
to 98.8 million hectares in 2009 from 74.3 million hectares in
2000, and 50.4 million hectares 30 years ago (FAO 2012).
An increasing demand for meat has the potential to compound
rangeland degradation. Livestock production accounts for
over 8 per cent of global freshwater use and is among the
largest sources of water pollution leading to eutrophication,
algal blooms, coral reef degradation, human health issues,
Meat and dairy production systems account for a large proportion of

the global land area. Anna Kontorov/UNEP
82
While a major motivation for promoting and investing in

biofuels has been the desire to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, recent research shows that their emissions balance
varies widely depending on which crops are grown, where,
and which production methods are used (Cerri et al. 2011;
Johnston et al. 2009; Pimentel et al. 2009). Biofuel crops
have been linked to deforestation, for example in Indonesia
(Box 3.6), and to encroachment into conservation lands.
Once these land-use changes are taken into account, the
biofuel carbon balance can become negative, meaning that
more carbon is released producing and using biofuels than
the equivalent amount of energy from fossil fuels (Melillo et
al. 2009; Fargione et al. 2008; Searchinger et al. 2008).
Crop-use changes stemming from demand for biofuels have
already been observed. For example, in 2007, the United
States converted 24 per cent of its corn to ethanol, supported
by government subsidies. The US Renewable Fuels Standard
of 2007 mandated an increase in biofuel production from
around 6.5 billion litres (1.7 billion US gallons) per year in
2001 to 136 billion litres (36 billion US gallons) per year by
2022 (US Government 2007). Also in 2007, US farmers planted
the largest area in maize since 1944: 37.8 million hectares,
an area 20 per cent bigger than in 2006 (Gillon 2010). This
crop change, which was subsidized, resulted in calling back
into production many set-aside lands in the Conservation
Reserve Program (CRP) that used to help check surpluses,
maintain price levels and promote an ecological balance.
Between late 2007 and March 2009, the total area of CRP land
in the United States dropped from 14.9 million to 13.6 million
hectares (Gillon 2010). In other words, close to 1.3 million
Box 3.5 Brazils forest policy and soy moratorium

While most Amazonian deforestation is linked to cattle
pasture and ranching, forest conversion for cropland
especially soy increased in Mato Grosso during
20002004 (Morton et al. 2006), and evidence suggests
that by displacing pastures, soy production may also drive
deforestation (Barona et al. 2010). A sharp decline in annual
deforestation during 20042009 (Figure 3.13) coincided with
the introduction of new policies as part of the Action Plan
for Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon
(PPCDAm). These include:
creating new protected areas in deforestation hot
spots;
establishing a deforestation monitoring programme using
satellite imagery;
an assertive law enforcement strategy allowing for property
apprehension, forfeiture or even destruction;
withholding public rural credit from producers who break
environmental regulations; and
an obligation on municipalities to reduce deforestation
rates below a certain threshold and register protected
areas in a GIS database to make illegal deforestation

promptly apparent (BRASIL 2009).
Pressure from consumers in Europe and a Greenpeace
campaign against illegal deforestation also led the Brazilian
Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE) and National
Cereal Exporters Association (ANEC) to sign an agreement in
July 2006 in which members pledge not to acquire soybeans
from newly deforested areas in the Amazon. The success of
this moratorium has prompted efforts to persuade the beef
industry to make its own commercial agreement.
Despite the apparent success of these and other policies and
agreements in reducing deforestation, challenges remain. For
example, many are concerned that proposed changes to Brazils
forest code may reduce forest protection (Tollefson 2011). The
rise of deforestation in other biomes and countries is also a
concern, which has led the Brazilian government to launch an
action plan for the Cerrado biome (BRASIL 2010) and disseminate
lessons learned to neighbouring Amazonian countries.
Figure 3.13 Clear-cut deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, 19882011

Annual deforestation by state, million hectares
2.8
Brazil, total
2.4
Par
Mato Grosso
2.0
Rondnia
1.6
Amazonas
1.2
Maranho
Acre
0.8
Amap
0.4
0
1988
Roraima
Tocantins
1992
1997
2002
2007
2011
Source: INPE 2012
hectares of conservation lands were lost in just over a year.

A similar trend can be seen in the European Union (EU),
particularly Germany, whose production capacity for biodiesel
increased fivefold between 2004 and 2008 (Franco et al.
2010). Although Germanys rapeseed cultivation reached
1.53 million hectares in 2007, a little over half of which was

used for fuel to meet its EU mandatory biodiesel blending
target, Germany needs an additional 1.8 million hectares of
rapeseed, which can be done only by increasing the conversion
of permanent grassland similar to the US CRP. However,
Germany has already used its maximum allowable 5 per cent
Land
83
Figure 3.14 Area under cultivation for selected crops in humid tropical countries, 19602010
Million hectares
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
Soybeans
1990
Sugarcane
2000
2010
Oil palm
Source: UNEP 2011c
of grassland under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (Franco

et al. 2010). Such constraints on agricultural expansion in the
United States and European Union help explain the push to
outsource biofuel (and food) production to other countries.
Critiques of biofuels have been accompanied by the emergence
of alternatives. For example, under certain conditions,
community-based biofuel production for local consumption
can be desirable, such as in Brazil where some small-scale
farmers produce fuel for their own vehicles and equipment

(Fernandes et al. 2010). To be considered beneficial, biofuel
production should satisfy multiple criteria, including real
energy gains, greenhouse gas reductions, preservation of
biodiversity and maintenance of food security (Tilman et al.
2009). Indeed, the principles of ecoagriculture (Milder et al.
2008) can be applied to help guide biofuel production towards
the mutual attainment of production, livelihood and conservation
objectives. While such systems represent only a tiny portion
Box 3.6 Palm oil expansion and rainforest destruction in Indonesia

The expansion of oil palm plantations, both for food and fuel,
is one of the most significant causes of rainforest destruction
in South East Asia, where the area under oil palm increased
from 4.2 million to 7.1 million hectares between 2000
and 2009 (FAO 2012). In Indonesia, two-thirds of oil palm
expansion has occurred by converting rainforest (UNEP 2009a).
Clearing tropical forests produces a carbon debt that lasts from
decades to centuries, contradicting one of the main reasons for
pursuing biofuels in the first place (Gibbs et al. 2008). It also
compromises vital ecosystem functions provided by rainforests
that cannot be replaced by plantations.
In 2009 the Indonesian government projected a dramatic
increase in the area planted to oil palm during the next one or
84
two decades up to 20 million hectares mostly on cleared

forest land (UNEP 2009a). This target was based on two linked
assumptions:
increasing demand in China and India for cooking oil and
other consumer goods, from chocolate to shampoo, that
use palm oil; and
increasing demand for biofuels in Europe and elsewhere
(McCarthy 2010; White and Dasgupta 2010).
In May 2011 the President of Indonesia signed a two-year
moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests and
peatlands, potentially slowing oil palm expansion; however,
secondary forests and existing contracts remain exempt
(USDA 2011).
Table 3.4 Timber and fibre consumption, 2002

and 2008
Type
2002
Million m3
2008
Million m3
20022008
% change
Fuelwood
1 795
1 867
+4
Industrial wood
1 595
1 544
-3
Wood-based panels
197
263
+34
Pulp for paper
185
191
+3
Paper and paper board
324
388
+20
Source: FAO 2011b, 2005
of overall biofuel production, they provide an opportunity for

equitably distributed alternative fuels to benefit land-based
ecosystems, for example by reducing charcoal production.
Timber and wood products
Forests are the main source of timber for fuel, industry, pulp,
paper and wood-based composites (Table 3.4). Key factors
contributing to the rise in consumption are population and
economic growth (FAO 2011). In addition, an increase in
the absolute number of people living in poverty, especially
in rural areas, and continued urbanization contribute to
the growth in consumption of wood fuels, while enhanced
economic growth in emerging economies contributes to the
increase in consumption of paper and paper products.
Protected areas
Protected areas are an important mechanism for the conservation
of vulnerable environmental resources, although there are
controversies as to whether they sometimes come at the expense
of the livelihoods of local people. Rates of deforestation are
much lower within reserves than outside them (Scharlemann
et al. 2010; Nagendra 2008), and some research cites the
positive benefits that protected areas have on the conservation
of ecosystem services (Stolton and Dudley 2010). But when
the underlying pressures imposed by local populations are not
adequately considered, substantial monitoring and enforcement
are needed to enforce rules designed to sustain natural resources,
and governance has been found to be most effective when local
users participate in the design and implementation of natural
resource governance. There is also some evidence of spill-over
effects in countries that enact conservation policies, for example
by increasing cereal imports from elsewhere (Rudel et al. 2009).
Protection in a given area has also been found to contribute to
deforestation on the adjacent land to which displaced human
populations have moved (Wittemyer et al. 2008). Despite the
growing area of land with protected status currently almost
13 per cent of the planets terrestrial area is under some degree
of protection (Chapter 5) policy makers should not rely solely
on this mechanism to preserve natural resources (Ostrom and

Cox 2010). Instead, they should develop capacity for adaptive
management strategies that produce the best institutional fit
for natural resource problems while taking into consideration
the need to protect local property rights and local livelihoods.
The separation of consumption from

the impacts of production
Urbanization and globalization contribute to the separation

between places where resources and goods originate and
where products are consumed. Recent research suggests that
the spatial distance between production and consumption is
both significant and growing (Erb et al. 2009). As a result, many
of the ecological costs of consumption are borne by people
and places increasingly far from consumption sites. While
urbanization draws people into densely populated spaces and
concentrates demand for food, materials and consumer products,
globalization and trade facilitate the movement of people and
goods, making both regional and international transfers of
resources and finished products possible. Large-scale land
acquisitions to supply food, fodder and other forest products as
well as other natural resources to markets in distant countries
are both a recent outcome of and a contributor to the separation
of production and consumption (Toulmin et al. 2011). If carefully
planned and managed, urbanization and globalization can
present opportunities to increase efficiency of resource use.
Drivers of increased separation
Urbanization affects land use and land cover, water use and
biodiversity at local and regional scales through social processes
that drive consumption patterns and material demands. Higher
purchasing power among many urban workers contributes to
improved quality of life, but at the cost of new challenges for
natural resources and environmental management. For example,
Western-style diets are increasingly being adopted globally in
urban areas (Pingali 2006). Similarly, improved urban lifestyles
are accompanied by higher consumption of water and energy
and increased carbon emissions. These urban consumption
patterns intensify stresses on distant as well as local ecosystems.
Globalization is not new, but its current iteration has some
distinct features (Chapter 1). Lower trade barriers, improved
communication technologies and relatively cheap transport have
all encouraged countries to become increasingly specialized in
their economic activities and reliant on international trade to
connect products and services with distant markets (Gibbon et
al. 2008). While international trade can make use of strategic
advantages to produce goods in an efficient way, it also makes
it easier to externalize both environmental and social costs.
The well-being of individuals in one place is often based on
the degradation of the environment elsewhere, for example by
non-renewable resource extraction. Meanwhile, both resources
and pollution are embedded in trade (Chapter 4), and countries
that place greater emphasis on free-market economic policies
have been linked to higher levels of environmental degradation
(zler and Obach 2009). The challenge for the global economy
is to encourage the best of what it can offer in terms of efficient
Land
85
and India, amongst other developments (Franco et al. 2010). The

emerging pattern of production in these newly opened sites is
large-scale, industrial monoculture (Novo et al. 2010; Richardson
2010). Even in cases where contract growing with smallholders is
promoted as a key component of new enterprises, monoculture
and industrial production methods are adopted, for example
in the oil palm sector in Indonesia (McCarthy 2010).
In theory the term marginal lands, often applied to land
deals, refers to lands that are far from road networks, are
not irrigated, and are not used for intensive commercial
agriculture. However, in practice there are indications that
land deals have encroached on prime agricultural lands,
suggesting that investors do not want to invest in lands with
little access to water sources or transport infrastructure.
Yasuni National Park on the fringes of the Amazon Basin in Ecuador

believed to be the single most biodiverse place on the planet has
come under severe threat following the discovery of rich oil deposits
beneath the parks rivers. In December 2011, US$116 million payment
for ecosystem services was raised by crowd-sourcing, temporarily
halting ecological devastation and the release of more than 400 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2). Sebastian Liste
resource use while taking measures to reduce the occurrence,

concentration and transfer of environmental and social costs.
Land deals
Recent changes in production patterns can be linked to the
convergence of food, energy, environmental and financial
crises, and a continuing surge in the mineral and timber
industries (Tables 3.2 and 3.4; Chapter 1). These interactions
have brought corporations and some national governments,
based in the global North and South, to forge widespread
land deals, sometimes referred to as land grabs, in distant
countries. The UN Committee on Food Security suggests that
such large-scale land acquisition now involves close to 100
million hectares (Toulmin et al. 2011). Concentrated in the
global South, these land deals are intended to produce food,
feed, biofuels, timber and minerals, usually for export. This
ongoing global rush for land is altering land-use patterns and
social relations, and involves a new combination of people
and pressures. Given the rapid pace of recent developments
and projected growth in demands for food, feed, biofuels and
materials, it is likely to have major impacts on future land use.
The 20072008 food price spike inspired multi-sectoral investors
to purchase or lease land for food production and export (Toulmin
et al. 2011). At the same time, biofuel blending requirements in
the EU and many other countries have provided another impetus
for external land deals and land-use change. This has directly
and indirectly inspired the expansion of oil palm plantations
in Colombia, Guatemala, Indonesia and Malaysia, sugar cane
ethanol production in Brazil and Southern Africa, soy cultivation
in Argentina and Brazil, and the planting of jatropha in Ghana
86
Displacement of local, including indigenous, people is a potential

outcome of these land deals. This becomes a problem if people
have nowhere go to seek employment or construct livelihoods
(Li 2011). This has happened in several sites of current land
deals, pushing people to further crowd urban spaces or into
more fragile environments such as remaining forest, higher
slopes or river banks. For example, in the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, large-scale agricultural investment has reportedly
pushed local farmers into a national park (Deininger et al. 2011).
But not all land deals have led, or will lead, to dispossession.
Different outcomes of land deals for the rural poor are illustrated
by McCarthy (2010) in Jambi, Indonesia, where three villages
showed three broad trajectories: dispossession, relatively
successful incorporation into the oil palm enclave, and adverse
incorporation with precarious employment and livelihoods.
There are competing views on how to respond. One
position argues that land deals offer both opportunities
and threats, and that opportunities can be harnessed and
threats managed by promoting a voluntary land-deal code
of conduct (Deininger 2011). In contrast, proponents of
minimum human rights principles argue that voluntary codes
may be insufficient to ensure that agricultural investment
benefits the poor in the South, rather than leading to a
transfer of resources to the rich in the North (De Schutter
2011). An in-between position is reflected in the Voluntary
Guidelines for the Democratic Governance of Natural
Resources promoted by FAO, which, unlike corporateled codes of conduct, bind member states to mandatory
reporting. How these viewpoints unfold remains to be seen.
Land governance
Many of the challenges for sustainable land management stem

from underlying weaknesses in land governance systems.
Generally, there are three components of a governance system:
actors and organizations, institutions, and practices (GFI 2009).
Incompatibility between these is one of the most common
reasons for the lack of successful transition from resourceextractive to sustainable management of land resources. For
example, various countries have redirected their policies and
management rules towards sustainable forest management, but
due to structural and cultural resistance in forestry organizations,

management practices have not changed to the expected level
(Kumar and Kant 2005). Other common features of poor land
governance are low levels of transparency, accountability and
participation in decision making, and a lack of capacity amongst
the actors and organizations responsible for land management.
Land governance includes structures ranging from totally
centralized to completely decentralized. A major challenge
is to find the best governance system, which depends on
existing governance alongside the social, economic and
environmental conditions and their dynamics (Kant 2000).
Market-based approaches
Heightened interest in carbon sequestration has inspired
new incentives and financing for ecosystem protection. Local
and global initiatives have started to invest in market-based
climate approaches that attach a financial value to the carbon
stored in forests, offering incentives for developing countries
to invest in low-carbon development. One such opportunity
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD) in developing countries has emerged as an important
component of a global strategy to reduce emissions while
generating financial flows from North to South (Scharlemann
et al. 2010; Angelsen 2009). Since its inception, REDD has
evolved into REDD+, which now goes beyond deforestation
and forest degradation to include conservation, sustainable
forest management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
Evidence of the potential for carbon sequestration in drylands
and grasslands is accumulating in support of REDD+ programmes
for these ecosystems as well as forests (Neely et al. 2009).
At this stage, REDD+ has not been incorporated into any
formal international carbon market, but it is likely to form a key
element of a post-Kyoto climate change treaty by promoting
the avoidance of deforestation and allied measures as eligible
activities for countries seeking to meet their obligations.
Carbon offset payments would encourage developing countries
to reduce national deforestation rates, while REDD+ could
include incentives to promote afforestation, reforestation
and improved forest management. Research suggests that
when appropriate techniques are used, forest restoration is a
cost-effective means of sequestering carbon while providing
abundant social and ecological benefits (Sasaki et al. 2011).
Proponents from both science and policy believe that REDD+
will not just conserve forests; they also consider it one of the
most cost-effective carbon abatement options worldwide
(Corbera et al. 2010; Dickson and Osti 2010; Sikor et al. 2010;
UN-REDD 2010; Kindermann et al. 2008; Thoms 2008). With
the right safeguards in place, REDD+ could offer crucial new
incentives for achieving sustainable development goals which
have proved elusive since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit by
simultaneously enabling biodiversity conservation, watershed
protection, capacity building in tropical forest nations and
poverty alleviation for rural communities (Sikor et al. 2010).
Much of the debate around REDD+ has focused on its
international aspects. However, its success will largely depend

on allocating benefits at the local to national levels and creating
domestic safeguards to prevent perverse incentives and the
marginalization of forest-dependent communities (Phelps et
al. 2010; Cotula and Mayers 2009; Daniel and Mittal 2009). To
this end, some stakeholders are concerned that REDD+ could
pose new risks to already vulnerable populations through
restricted access to land, tenure insecurity, conflict over
resources, centralization of power, and distortion effects in
local economic systems. These observers caution that REDD+
will only achieve lasting results if it is suitable for adaptation
to the particular circumstances of relevant countries and can
meet the needs of local people while building their capacity
(IUCN 2010/11; Mayers et al. 2010; Preskett et al. 2008).
The risks and opportunities for REDD+ will depend on several
factors, including how it will be financed and implemented. Many
challenges are shared by forest countries, but responses and
solutions will often have to be developed according to countryspecific and local characteristics. Ultimately, if REDD+ is to be
successful, it must generate substantial revenues to implement
conservation and sustainable forest management while
supporting rural poverty reduction and livelihoods. At the same
time, it must recognize the dynamic complexity of global systems,
where cause and effect are often distant in time and space.
Land management and decentralization
Governance plays a major role in how land resources are
monitored and used and how environmental protection
is enforced. Proponents of decentralized natural resource
management suggest that giving local-level officials greater
responsibilities should result in more efficient, flexible,
equitable, accountable and participatory governance (Blair
2000). Local-level decision makers often know more about
local conditions and are therefore well positioned to develop
new management solutions. This is important from the
perspective of adaptive management and providing decision
makers with the flexibility to quickly develop solutions to
unforeseen problems (Ostrom 2007). But decentralization is
only effective if local governments have the financial resources
and technical capacity to monitor environmental change
(Andersson 2004). Positive outcomes from decentralized
environmental governance are also unlikely in the absence
of public participation in local government decision making
(Larson 2002; Blair 2000); this emphasizes the importance
of developing the capacity of local-level stakeholders
in the sustainable management of land systems.
Capacity building for sustainable land management
Capacity building recognizes the knowledge systems, perspectives
and values of all stakeholders and uses an in-depth understanding
of how a resource system functions. As sustainable land
management requires a different set of organizational, technical,
economic, environmental and managerial skills from that of
many land managers, building the capacity of all actors and
organizations can be central to its successful integration.
Land degradation in dryland ecosystems provides an example
Land
87
Box 3.7 Sustainable dryland management

Promising management strategies for dryland ecosystems
across the world include afforestation to counteract chronic
carbon loss due to land degradation, with successful
examples in Israel (Tal and Gordon 2010), Iran (Amiraslani
and Dragovich 2011) and eastern Uganda (Buyinza et al.
2010). Other progressive strategies for adaptively managing
drylands include planting resilient nitrogen-fixing crops
(Saxena et al. 2010), dune stabilization measures, runoff control, improved range management and integrated
land management, for example Irans National Plan to
Combat Desertification. Programmes that build community
resilience through watershed restoration in drylands, such
as the Watershed Organization Trusts in India, are also
promising, as are models of polycentric adaptive governance
increasingly adopted in Australia (Marshall and Smith 2010;
Smith et al. 2010). Enhanced monitoring programmes based
on vegetation indices and real-time climatic data are also
important in allowing for early-warning and management
interventions (Veron and Paruelo 2010).
where the lack of capacity scientific, technical and collaborative

limits success in addressing environmental problems.
Degradation in dryland systems is driven by multiple causes
and characterized by complex feedbacks that are made worse
by global climate change (Ravi et al. 2010; Verstraete et al.
2009). Despite concerted efforts and a wide array of initiatives
(Box 3.7), drylands continue to be threatened because of lack of
agreement on the underlying driving mechanisms, characteristics
and consequences of degradation (Reynolds et al. 2007). Longterm harmonized data are necessary not only to understand
the root causes of observed changes, but also to forecast and
disentangle those, possibly irrevocable, impacts of global change
from the often more temporary or local variability induced by
other human activity. These data gaps, and the subsequent
lack of capacity and common strategies among dryland
nations, can severely hamper progress towards internationally
agreed goals on dryland conservation and rehabilitation.
OUTLOOK
Complex forces are affecting land resources, some at dramatic

rates of change and with diverse regional and national
characteristics. Certainly some land conversion trends are
on an unsustainable trajectory, as global population growth
and rising consumption exert ever greater pressures on
land. Continued deforestation, wetland conversion and
dryland degradation are of particular concern. An increasing
portion of the pressure on tropical forests is shifting from
the activities of small household farms to large industrial
plantations producing soy, meat and dairy products, palm oil,
sugar cane and other products destined for global markets
(DeFries et al. 2010, 2008). Land degradation continues to
hamper soil productivity and ecological functions in many
88
regions. At the same time, there is significant potential to

reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production
(Smith et al. 2007). Two phenomena that have arisen since
GEO-4 are the expansion of biofuel production and a growing
number of land deals in developing countries. These and
other processes are unfolding rapidly. While their longer-term
implications remain uncertain, early evidence of their social and
environmental consequences should be closely considered.
In combination, these processes are seriously affecting the
environment in several regions and require urgent attention.
Data and monitoring gaps
One key to avoiding environmental damage is to effectively

monitor environmental trends, yet major data gaps limit the ability
to avert unwanted outcomes. Global data on land degradation
have not been updated for a long time, although new estimates
using satellite material are being developed. Datasets exist for
land cover but do not always adequately represent areas that
have experienced selective cutting or other types of modification.
Forest cover losses in boreal and temperate forests are not as
well studied as those in tropical forests, while evidence is still
emerging of the significant carbon sequestration potential of
rangelands and grasslands. Records of ecosystem change are
improving, mainly through remote sensing, but reliable data on
land-use change are still fragmented and often not comparable
the extent of drylands, for example, is uncertain because
of the classifications and methodologies used by different
programmes. Similarly, there are discrepancies between a number
of wetland inventories (Ramsar Convention Secretariat 2007)
and there is no comprehensive global wetlands database.
Satellite remote sensing is an essential tool for monitoring
global land resources, but no such technology exists for
population patterns. National census efforts, the best current
technique, are sporadic and underfunded in many countries,
and there is a significant data gap for population changes in
rural areas. Further, it is critical to track the consequences
for the environment of rapid and extensive urbanization,
with its uncertain implications for land resources.
Data on biofuels including the extent of production and
use are incomplete at the global level, although national
datasets can be found for some countries. Similarly, there is
a need for improved national and global monitoring of land
transactions including large-scale land deals. There are also
few standard indicators that governments can use to monitor
the environmental impacts of different patterns of land tenure.
Finally, standard methodologies for the badly needed valuation
of ecosystem services are at an early stage of development.
Goal gaps
Table 3.5 summarizes progress toward the themes expressed

in internationally agreed goals on land use and conservation.
However, some important topics are not reflected in them.
For example, there are no goals or targets that reflect the
vulnerabilities and challenges specific to the polar regions.
Issues of capacity building and stakeholder participation are

B: Some progress

D: Deteriorating
State and trends

Outlook
Gaps
1. Promote food security

Reduce proportion of people
who suffer from hunger
Proportion of malnourished people Depends on up-coming policy

decreasing, but absolute number
decisions and interventions
increasing
See following entries on increasing food

production and access
Improve household economic

access to food
Food per person is increasing

overall, but a large gap remains
between and within regions,
particularly for rural poor
households who now spend
more than half of their income on
food; one-third of food produced
for human consumption is lost
or wasted; land and food price
volatility is influenced by rising
demands for biofuels, among other
economic forces
Drivers remain in place for land and

food price volatility to continue;
without interventions, the gap in
food per person is likely to persist
Interventions to reduce post-harvest food

waste; stimulate smallholder farmer-centred
agricultural growth promoting affordable
access to land, water and tenure rights for poor
households; coordinate domestic and regional
biofuel policies to avoid worsening global food
insecurity
Increase food production
Agricultural yields are generally

increasing but a large gap remains
between regions
Yields are unlikely to improve much

more in developed countries; with
efforts focusing on decreasing the
yield gap in developing countries,
much depends on how this is
accomplished
Location-specific approaches to increase yields

and achieve sustainable land use, for example
smallholder farmer-centred agricultural growth;
increased nutrient-use efficiency; improved
temporal and spatial matching of nutrient
supply with plant demand
2. Reverse loss of environmental resources

Reduce deforestation rate
and increase forest coverage
Slight slowing of deforestation

but rate is still high; deforestation
is concentrated in the tropics;
temperate areas are experiencing
some forest regrowth
Demand for timber and fibre

is likely to rise; clearing for
agricultural expansion, including
biofuels, is likely to continue
without a change in policies
Improved understanding of forest degradation;

regional policy coordination to avoid leakage
shifting deforestation from regulated to
unregulated areas
Halt the destruction of

tropical forests
Deforestation rate has slowed in

some tropical countries, but net
forest loss in Latin America and
the Caribbean and Africa remains
close to 7 million hectares per year
The area under the REDD+

programme and schemes for
payment for ecosystem services is
likely to increase, providing new
incentives to protect tropical forests
and their ecosystem services
Data and monitoring on carbon stocks/flux;

number and area of community-managed
REDD+ areas; national adaptation strategies
with ecosystem-based components
C/D
Continued conversion of wetlands

for agriculture, aquaculture and
human infrastructure
Pressure on wetlands is likely to

continue or increase as demand
for agricultural land and urban
expansion continues
Improved inventory and monitoring of global

wetlands; renewed commitment to the Ramsar
Convention at the national level
Net primary productivity is

decreasing in drylands
Pressure on drylands is likely to

continue
Improved inventory and monitoring of global

drylands
Depends on upcoming policy

decisions and interventions
Greater integration/collaboration between

sectors
Stem the loss of wetlands
Combat desertification and

mitigate the effects of drought
3. Practise integrated land-use planning and management

Integrate principles of
sustainable development
into country policies and
programmes
Recognize, maintain and

develop the multiple benefits
of ecosystem services, for
example for biodiversity, and
for their cultural, scientific, and
recreational value in addition
to their economic value
Good progress in countries

affected by the UNCCD in
establishing mechanisms
to ensure synergy between
conventions on desertification,
biodiversity and climate change,
but few countries have integrated
investment frameworks
Some examples of valuing multiple Depends on upcoming policy

benefits of ecosystem services, but decisions and interventions
overall still largely externalized
Improved non-market valuation techniques;

capacity building to include multiple and local
values in land-use decision making
Land
89
Coon Creek Watershed in southwest Wisconsin, once one of the most heavily eroded regions in the United States, is now an impressive and
integrated farmland mosaic thanks to advances in soil and farmland restoration. Jim Richardson
also inadequately represented in international goals. Several

of the land-related goals that do exist lack quantifiable targets,
complicating the task of assessing progress towards their
achievement. A particular challenge is to acknowledge the
interactions between different components of social-ecological
systems at different scales.
Goals cannot be considered in isolation. Due to tensions and
synergies, progress towards one goal must be viewed in light
of implications for others. For example, Figure 3.10 highlights
friction between MDG 1 on reducing hunger and MDG 7 on
environmental sustainability: if food production is increased
through agricultural expansion, it directly compromises
the protection of forests, wetlands and other ecosystems.
Meanwhile, efforts to address the education and health issues
expressed in MDGs 26 can indirectly help achieve MDGs 1
and 7 in the long term. Thus, an integrated perspective on goal
achievement is crucial.
Discussion of key issues
Economic growth and land resources

The global economy has quadrupled during the last 25 years
(IMF 2006), but 60 per cent of the worlds major ecosystem
goods and services underpinning livelihoods have been
90
degraded or used unsustainably (MA 2005a). This means

that traditional economic growth cannot be the foundation
of sustainable development. A new paradigm of economic
welfare is required one that is focused on improving human
welfare and social equity, and reducing environmental risks and
ecological scarcities. One such approach, the green economy
proposed by UNEP in 2010, includes:
valuation of natural resources and environmental assets;
pricing policies and regulatory mechanisms that translate
these values into market and non-market incentives; and
measures of economic welfare that are responsive to the
use, degradation and loss of ecosystem goods and services
(UNEP 2011).
The transition from traditional economic growth to the green
economy will require changes to national regulations, policies,
subsidies, incentives and accounting systems, as well as
to global legal and market infrastructures, an appropriate
international trade structure and targeted development aid.
Meeting the growing demand for food
Both global population and per-person consumption continue
to grow. The achievement of MDG 1, the eradication of extreme
hunger and poverty, will require getting more food to more
people. How this is accomplished will have important

implications for MDG 7 environmental sustainability.
Population growth is an important part of this complex
interaction, but changing lifestyles and consumption patterns,
particularly the increasing global demand for animal products,
are also significant. Friction between these two MDG goals could
be reduced by:
improving efficiency along the whole food chain by increasing
crop yields through research and extension, and reducing
food waste and spoilage by improving transport, storage
and distribution infrastructure in developing countries and
changing behaviour in wealthier societies, where much food
waste occurs in food retail markets and homes;
implementing full-cost accounting for food products
that reflects the environmental and social costs of their
production in order to facilitate a shift in consumption
patterns;
encouraging, where appropriate, innovative approaches to
food production to shorten food supply chains and enhance
food security;
evaluating the ecosystem service and carbon balance
implications of potential biofuel production to inform landuse planning and management, and reducing competition
between food and biofuel production, particularly in areas
with the highest crop production potential.
achieve this goal but to be effective there needs to be strong

coordination between these actors.
Limitations in the assessment of land-change processes cannot
and should not delay action to address their driving forces,
with the precautionary principle being applied to reduce their
negative impacts. Current evidence of their consequences
highlights the need to act in the short term to avoid potentially
irreversible negative outcomes in the long term. There are
no easy answers to these complex problems, and single and
isolated actions might achieve only limited positive outcomes
rather than broad solutions. New governance approaches
to land management could help incorporate adaptive
management, capacity building and more efficient valuation
of ecosystem services and natural resources by combining
market-based tools with a bigger role for community agency
and bottom-up approaches. New governance approaches could
also help foster the changes in consumption patterns needed to
reduce pressure on land systems and create better knowledge
and awareness of the multiple values of ecosystems. While
the leadership of UN organizations and other international
institutions is a central element in these efforts, governments
have a crucial role, responsibility and opportunity to act as
agents of change.
Growing demand for non-food resources

Crop- and plantation-based biofuel production has increased
rapidly in recent years and the land-use transitions associated
with this could have strong environmental and social impacts.
Fuel-blending targets in numerous countries mandate the
continued expansion of biofuel production. Next-generation
biofuels from, for example, algae or cellulose are still
under development and are not likely to contribute a significant
share of biofuel production in the near future. Governments
should recognize that targets for biofuel production have both
direct and indirect implications for land use at national and
global scales.
Large-scale land acquisitions are growing with potentially major
impacts on land-use change and social relations. Recent reports
have advocated the establishment of an observatory of land
tenure and rights to food to monitor access to land and ensure
that land investments result in decreased hunger and poverty
in host communities and countries (Toulmin et al. 2011).
United Nations organizations could play an important role in
creating precedents that could help improve food access
in developing countries.
Complexity and policy challenges
An important step towards addressing these challenges is to
monitor, study and understand how social and biophysical
drivers interact, and the diversity of social, economic and
environmental consequences they generate at local, regional and
global levels. A concerted effort by international organizations,
the scientific community, and national and local institutions
could create the comprehensive monitoring network needed to
New governance approaches could foster the changes in consumption

patterns needed to reduce pressure on land systems and create better
knowledge and awareness of the multiple values of ecosystems.
Frank van den Bergh/iStock
Land
91
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C H A P T E R
Brendan MacRae/iStock
Water
Coordinating lead authors: Erica Brown Gaddis, Paul Roger Glennie, Yi Huang and
Walter Rast
Lead authors: Magdi Abdelhamid, Maite Aldaya, Bjrn Alfthan, Peter Koefoed Bjrnsen,
Mariele Evers, Gensuo Jia, Ljubomir Jeftic, Alioune Kane, Santiago Reyna and
Judith Weis
Contributing authors: Hermanni Backer, Hans Genter Brauch, Eberhard Braune,
Salif Diop, Carlo Giupponi, Sherry Heileman, Lawrence Hislop, Tiina Kurvits,
Robin Mahon, Liana Talaue-McManus, Lisa Speer and Jaap van Woerden
Principal scientific reviewer: rsula Oswald Spring
Chapter coordinator: Salif Diop
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97
Main Messages
Increasing water-use efficiency in all sectors
is vital to ensure sustainable water resources
for all uses. Human water demands, with only
limited improvements in efficiency, are increasing
and are already unsustainable in many regions.
Nevertheless, potential exists for efficiency gains:
irrigation efficiency, for example, could be increased
by approximately one-third simply by implementing
existing technology. At the local level, integrated
demand and supply strategies are critical. At a riverbasin level, more efficient and fair water allocation
systems are needed. More broadly, virtual water
trade can ease water demands in some locations.
Recognition of ecosystem water needs within
allocation systems will help protect lifesupporting ecosystem services. Freshwater and
marine ecosystem services are critical to human
development and integral to the transition to a
green economy. Inadequately articulated objectives
and lack of data, however, make it difficult to
evaluate progress in meeting environmental water
requirements. Better strategies and tools are
needed for efficient, equitable water allocation
between users, including the environment. Full
implementation of international commitments and
enforcement of legally binding agreements, and due
consideration of customary water-use arrangements,
will facilitate sustainable human and ecosystem use.
Reducing both point and non-point pollution is
imperative to improve ecosystem health and provide
safe water for humans. Substantial achievements in
reducing some pollutants have occurred since 1992,
98
98

although many water bodies are still affected, and

many new contaminants have poorly understood
effects. Treating municipal and industrial wastewater is
achievable with existing technology, but requires better
regulatory oversight, infrastructure investment and
capacity building, especially in developing countries.
Integrated land-water management and stakeholder
participation are necessary to reduce non-point
pollution of both freshwater and marine systems.
Improved water supply and sanitation is probably
the single most cost-effective means of reducing
water-related death and disease globally. Although
the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target
on water supply was met in 2010, more than 600
million people will still lack access to safe drinking
water in 2015. The MDG target on sanitation is
unlikely to be met, with 2.5 billion people currently
without improved sanitation facilities; poor rural
populations are most affected. Meeting the water
supply and sanitation MDGs would reduce the
water-related global disease burden by about 10
per cent. Increased investment in infrastructure,
capacity building and regulation are needed, and
the participation of women is crucial for water
management and the prevention of waterborne disease.
Climate-sensitive policies across all water-related
sectors are essential to address extreme events and
increased climatic variability. Floods and droughts
still cause losses of billions of dollars annually.
Climate change is altering the hydrologic cycle,
threatening freshwater and marine ecosystems as
well as human water security in many regions. Open

oceans play a major role in regulating global climate
and weather patterns, with climate change impacts
manifested in warmer surface waters and rising sea
levels. Ocean warming and acidification threaten
tropical coral reef ecosystems, with rapid contraction
predicted by 2050. Mitigation and adaptation to
climate change impacts must be considered within
the context of other drivers and pressures. Those
related to energy production are likely to require
trade-offs between human energy needs, water
demands and ecosystem protection.
The pace of increasing demands on freshwater
and ocean resources must be matched by
improved governance. Freshwater systems
integrate human activities and land management
across nations and regions. The open oceans are
a major global commons and require effective
international cooperation and governance. Most
human and environmental water problems result
from inadequate governance involving policy,
institutional, financial and/or stakeholder issues.
Integrated management approaches for addressing
these constraints require time and resources to
be successful. They need enhanced integration
of policies and institutions between sectors and
governance levels, implementation and enforcement
of relevant agreements and goals, improved
monitoring and resolution of transboundary issues.
Good governance, including stakeholder and privatesector participation and gender considerations, is
critical to increasing societal and environmental
resilience and sustainability.
Water
Water
99
99
INTRODUCTION
Aquatic ecosystems are major integrators of natural and

anthropogenic processes. As the ultimate sink for pollutants,
freshwater and marine ecosystems are among the most sensitive
indicators of the environmental impacts of human activities. They
support a wide diversity of life (Chapter 5), providing important
goods and services that directly or indirectly support and sustain
human existence and livelihoods. Adequate freshwater supplies
of acceptable quality are recognized as a human right by the UN
General Assemblys declaration on clean water and sanitation.
As highlighted in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA
2005), freshwater and marine ecosystems provide various services,
including provisioning (food, water, fibre, fuel), regulating (climate,
hydrological, purification), cultural (spiritual, recreational), and
supporting (sediment transport, nutrient cycling). Such ecosystem
services are a function of water, land, biodiversity and atmospheric
links. Healthy aquatic ecosystems not only provide goods and
services, but also enhance resilience against the negative impacts of
environmental perturbations or disasters. Aquatic systems also
drive major global bio-geochemical cycles; the open oceans play
a major role in regulating global climate and weather patterns.
This chapter addresses freshwater and marine systems as distinct
but linked hydrological components of the water environment.
It assesses progress towards achieving water-related goals in
major multilateral environmental agreements identified by the
GEO-5 High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel and regional
consultations. Based on the drivers-pressures-states-impactsresponses framework (DPSIR) (Stanners et al. 2007) used for
the GEO-5 assessment, this chapter focuses on the state,
trends and impacts of the water environment, with references
to drivers (Chapter 1) and responses (Parts 2 and 3), and other
environmental sectors (Chapters 2, 3, 5 and 6) where appropriate.
Although freshwater ecosystem goods and services are extensive,
competition and multi-sectoral demands for water have resulted
in overexploitation and contamination of resources in many
regions. Competing water uses and their impacts on sustainable
aquatic resources, including quantity and quality issues, are
discussed, including the water needs of ecosystems. The chapter
also addresses inequitable and unsustainable water demands in
many countries. Pollution from land- and marine-based activities
(Chapter 6) continues to degrade coastal areas and open oceans.
Water quality trends are discussed. Continuing overfishing severely
impacts many fish stocks, particularly marine species (Chapter 5).
Many predicted global climate change impacts will be manifested
in changes to the hydrologic cycle. How they could affect the
water environment is highlighted, including increased frequency,
duration and severity of droughts and floods. Predicted climate
change impacts and their uncertainties are discussed, including
the vulnerabilities and adaptation needs of many communities.
Watersheds comprise a group of linked water systems that can
include rivers, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, underlying aquifers
and downstream marine systems, although these links are often
100
Mangroves are significant breeding grounds for marine life, and protect
coastal areas from storm surges and other natural hazards. Jeremy Sterk
not considered in developing water management plans. This is a

significant omission, since simultaneously managing for human
health and social concerns including disease and poverty,
economic development and sustainable environmental integrity
within complex global connectivity often requires environmental
and economic trade-offs, some very difficult. Because many
water-related problems result from policy, institutional, financial
or other governance inadequacies, this chapter also discusses
both freshwater and marine governance elements identified
in the multilateral environmental agreements. It concludes by
identifying major policy and data gaps for achieving water-related
goals. Policy options to address the issues raised in this chapter
are addressed throughout Part 2 of GEO-5.
INTERNATIONALLY AGREED GOALS
Freshwater was selected as a priority issue in all UNEP GEO-5

regional scoping consultations, with most regions identifying
Paragraph 26c of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
(Box 4.1) as the most important freshwater goal, with water
availability and marine issues also identified in several regions.
Although limited by gaps in global-scale data and specific targets,
the degree to which water-related multilateral environmental
agreements have been addressed is a focus of the current chapter.
Goals were identified on the basis of their policy relevance and
ability to illustrate intergovernmental cooperation since the
United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
(UNCED) in 1992 and earlier (Table 4.1).
Box 4.1 Johannesburg Plan of Implementation

Paragraph 26c
Improve the efficient use of water resources and promote their
allocation among competing uses in a way that gives priority
to the satisfaction of basic human needs and balances
the requirement of preserving or restoring ecosystems and
their functions, in particular in fragile environments, with
human domestic, industrial and agriculture needs, including
safeguarding drinking water quality.
Source: WSSD 2002
Human
well-being
Water-use
efficiency
Water quality
Institutional
and legal
issues
Water
resources
management
FAO Responsible Fisheries (1995)*
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Multilateral freshwater agreements
Global Programme of Action for the Protection of the Marine

Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA) (1995)
Regional seas conventions and programmes
Ballast Water Management Convention (2004)
Dublin Principles on Water and Sustainable Development (1992)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC 1992)
Barbados Programme of Action for Small Island Developing

States (1994)
International Watercourses Convention (1997)
UN Fish Stocks Agreement (2001)
Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (1972)*
Convention on Biological Diversity (1992)
Aichi Targets
MARPOL Convention on marine pollution (1973)
London Convention on Marine Pollution (1972)*
UN Millennium Declaration (2000) (UN 2000)**
55/2
X
X
7*
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (UN

2000)*
X
X
1*
X
X
4045
32
31*
30*
1992 targets
Protect and restore freshwater

ecosystems and their services
Protect and restore marine
Conserve and improve
management of wetlands
Ensure environmental water
needs
Reduce water-related human
health hazards
Ensure equitable access to
improved drinking water supply
Secure adequate sustainable
freshwater supply
Develop programmes for
mitigating effects of extreme
water-related events
Mitigate and adapt to adverse
effects of climate change on
the water environment
Improve the efficient use of
water resources
Reduce and control freshwater
pollution
Reduce and control marine
pollution
Improve sanitation coverage
including sewage collection,
treatment and disposal
Recognize the economic value
of water
Develop and enforce effective
legal frameworks and
regulations
Strengthen institutional
coordination mechanisms
Develop and implement
integrated management
strategies and plans
Develop adequate monitoring
systems (national, regional
and global)
Improve stakeholder
participation and mainstream
gender in water management
Improve groundwater
management
26**
Ecosystems
25*
7*
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI)

(WSSD 2002)**
Major themes from internationally

agreed goals
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982)**
Table 4.1 Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related to water
Note: Numbers at the top of the columns under JPOI, MDG and UN Millennium Declaration represent specific paragraphs, goals or articles.
* Selected by the GEO-5 High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel (HLIAP). ** Selected at regional consultations.
Water
101
STATE AND TRENDS

Water scarcity
Human-environment competition for scarce water resources

Water scarcity is a significant and increasing threat to the
environment, human health, development, energy security
and the global food supply (Pereira et al. 2009). Ecosystems,
which provide life-supporting goods and services (Chapter 5),
suffer from multiple pressures, including the need for water of
adequate quantity and quality as well as appropriate timing
(environmental flows). The indicator used here is blue water
scarcity (Figure 4.1), the proportion of groundwater and surface
water consumed relative to the sustainable water available for
human use, after accounting for environmental flows (Hoekstra
and Mekonnen 2011). Water scarcity is a significant factor in
human water security, with a fifth of the global population living
in areas with physical water scarcity (Comprehensive Assessment
of Water Management in Agriculture 2007).
Falkenmark and Rockstrm (2004) estimated the water required to
maintain ecosystem goods and services as 75 per cent of the total
water use, while direct human water use represented 25 per cent
of the total. These figures include both blue (groundwater and
surface water) and green water (water stored in the soil). Water is
overcommitted in many places, leaving insufficient resources for
both human and environmental needs (Gleick and Palaniappan
2010). In a study of 424 of the worlds major river basins,
containing a population of 3.9 billion people, environmental flow
requirements were violated in 223 basins, containing 2.67 billion
people facing severe water scarcity during at least one month of
the year (Figure 4.1) (Hoekstra and Mekonnen 2011). Although
arid regions of Northern Africa and the Middle East are not
included in this analysis, other data suggest that the proportion of
Box 4.2 Water scarcity

Goals
Ensure environmental water needs; conserve and improve
management of wetlands
Indicators
Blue water scarcity
Global trends
Deteriorating
Poor communities highly dependent on ecosystem services
West Asia, South Asia, Mesoamerica, Australia
renewable water withdrawn in those regions exceeds 5075 per

cent, leaving little environmental flow (FAO 2008).
Although many goals in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
acknowledge the importance of marine and coastal ecosystems
(WSSD 2002), there is less recognition of water needs to support
freshwater ecosystems, which are themselves legitimate
water users (Chapter 5). Although the importance of formally
recognizing the environment as a legitimate water user is
increasing, it remains on a relatively small scale in practice, with
many aquatic ecosystems still at risk (Garrick et al. 2009).
Figure 4.1 Annual average water scarcity in major river basins, 19962005
Low blue water scarcity

Moderate blue water scarcity
Significant blue water scarcity
Severe blue water scarcity
Insucient data
Note: The annual average is calculated from monthly values.
102
Source: Hoekstra and Mekonnen 2011
Water demand
Global withdrawals have tripled over the last 50 years (UNESCO
2009) to meet the demands of a growing population with
increasing wealth and consumption levels. While water supply
over this period has remained relatively constant, demand now
exceeds sustainable supply in many places, with serious
long-term implications (2030 Water Resources Group 2009).
The planetary boundary for human consumptive blue water use
when used groundwater and surface water is not made available
for reuse in the same basin is estimated to be 4000 km3 per
year, with current consumptive blue water use estimated at
approximately 2600 km3 per year. Projected water demands
may to reach planetary boundaries in the coming decades
(Rockstrm et al. 2009).
Agricultural, industrial and domestic water withdrawals have
steadily increased. Agriculture is by far the largest global water user
(Figure 4.2), with withdrawals for this purpose being unsustainable
in many places due to unbalanced long-term irrigation water
budgets (MA 2005), as evidenced by the mining of aquifers and
reliance on large water diversion projects. These withdrawals are
projected to continue increasing, placing further pressure on aquatic
ecosystems, which themselves also require water of adequate
quantity, quality and timing for sustained health.
Many communities are dependent on unsustainable
groundwater withdrawals (aquifer mining) to meet agricultural
Box 4.3 Water demand

Goals
Secure adequate sustainable freshwater supply
Indicators
Water withdrawals; groundwater withdrawals; net
water footprint
Global trends
Deteriorating
Developing countries with increasing water demand;
communities dependent on groundwater-irrigated agriculture
Groundwater withdrawals: Asia and Pacific, parts of
North America
Water footprint: North America, Latin America and the
Caribbean, Europe
and domestic water demands, further threatening water security

in many regions. Between 1960 and 2000, global groundwater
Figure 4.2 Current and projected water withdrawals by sector, 20002050

Withdrawals, km3 per year
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2000
2005
Agriculture
2015
2020
Industry
2030
2050
Domestic
Note: The graph includes three dierent groups of scenarios (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, GEO-4
and OECD) and shows the range between their maximum and minimum values at each five-year interval.
Source: CESR, University of Kassel, Germany; Alcamo et al. 2005a, 2005b (MA scenarios); Rothman et al.
2007 (GEO-4 scenarios); Bakkes et al. 2008 and OECD 2008 (OECD scenarios)
Water
103
Figure 4.3 Global annual groundwater depletion, 2000
Depletion, m3 per year

per 0.5 degree grid cell
1 0001 500
3001 000
100300
20100
220
Negligible
No data
Note: The 0.5 degree grid is approximately equivalent to 50 x 50 km near

the equator. Note that the volume of depletion in million m3 per year is
in the same order of magnitude as the categories shown in the legend.
withdrawal increased from 312 km3 to 734 km3 per year,

resulting in groundwater depletion increasing from 126 km3 to
283 km3 per year (Wada et al. 2010). Many globally important
agricultural centres are particularly dependent on groundwater,
including northwest India, northeastern China, northeast
Pakistan, Californias Central Valley, and the western United
States (Figure 4.3) (Wada et al. 2010).
Source: Wada et al. 2010
Not all water withdrawals result in consumptive water use, since

much withdrawn water is returned in the form of wastewater
or irrigation return flows. Rain-fed agriculture also represents
significant human water use without direct water withdrawals.
Global water consumption per person, as measured by the water
footprint, averages 1387 m3 per year. North America has the highest
water footprint at 2798 m3 per person per year, while Asia and
the Pacific have the lowest at 1156 m3 per person per year (Figure
4.4). Of the total global water footprint, 74 per cent represents
rainwater stored in soil (green water), 11 per cent represents
the consumptive use of surface and groundwater (blue water),
and 15 per cent represents the freshwater required to assimilate
pollution from all sources (referred to in the water footprint
terminology as grey water). Agriculture accounts for 92 per cent of
the total global water footprint; livestock and related products alone
account for 27 per cent (Chapter 1) (Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2011).
Water use efficiency and the virtual water trade
Since the renewable supply of water is relatively constant,
addressing water scarcity relies in large part on reducing water
demand by improving efficiency and reducing consumptive
water use. All user demands must be considered together,
including environmental water requirements.
Although improved methods and technologies have produced
efficiency gains in all sectors in some regions, the need, and
potential, exists for further improvements to ensure the wellbeing of a growing world population while minimizing the
impacts on ecosystems and their goods and services.
Sprinkler irrigation systems are usually more efficient than flood

systems. Pgiam/iStock
104
The need and potential for improvement is greatest in the

agricultural sector (Figure 4.5), since approximately 70 per
to 75 per cent or more (Rohwer et al. 2007). Broader agricultural

water-use efficiency strategies include land-water management
and reuse (Ali 2010), while food supply chains beyond the farm
can also be more water efficient.
Box 4.4 Water-use efficiency

Goals
Improve the efficient use of water resources
There is inadequate global data to evaluate the overall state

and trends of industrial and domestic water-use efficiency.
Nonetheless, opportunities do exist for significant improvement
in these sectors, particularly where there are major withdrawals
and/or rapid urbanization is occurring (Chapter 1). Water
allocation efficiency is also required at the river-basin level to
ensure sustainable, equitable and economic water use.
Indicators
Irrigation efficiency; net virtual water trade
Global trends
Some progress
Those dependent on irrigated agriculture in arid areas; poor
communities in net virtual-water exporting countries
At national, regional and global scales, the virtual water trade

the water embedded in traded products ranging from crops
to manufactured goods can be a tool for improving overall
efficiency by capitalizing on the comparative advantages of
certain water uses in particular regions. About one-fifth of
the global water footprint is related to production for export
(Figure 4.6). The global virtual water trade for agricultural
and industrial products totalled 2320 km3 per year between
1996 and 2005, with crops contributing 76 per cent and
animal and industrial products each contributing 12 per cent
(Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2011). The virtual water trade can
efficiently redistribute water and partially help to address
the disconnection between consumption and the impacts
of production (Chapter 3). Water-scarce basins, countries or

West Asia, Asia and the Pacific, parts of Africa and Central
America
cent more food will be needed by 2050 to cope with a growing

population and dietary changes (Chapter 1) (Boelee 2011).
Improvements in the application, conveyance, distribution
and management of irrigation can raise the overall efficiency
of thewater getting to the cropsfrom approximately 35 per cent
Figure 4.4 Annual global and regional water footprint, 19962005

Per person, m3
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
Africa
Green water footprint
World average
Asia and the

Pacific
Europe
Latin America
and the Caribbean
Blue water footprint

World average
North America
West Asia
Grey water footprint
World average
Source: Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2011
Water
105
Figure 4.5 Global irrigation efficiencies, 2000
Irrigation eciency
Low
(30%)
High
(80%)
Note: The term irrigation eciency refers to the

proportion of irrigation water that gets to the
crop, taking into account the management of
the distribution system, conveyance losses and
losses during field application.
regions, for example, can import water-intensive products

through trade, preserving scarce water resources for more
valuable purposes. However, it can also lead to overexploitation
of water resources in net exporter countries, prioritizing
commodity water needs over basic local needs, especially
Source: Rohwer et al. 2007
where strong economic drivers promote commodity exports

(Chapter 1). Another characteristic is that some net virtual
water exporters, such as Australia or South Asia, are also water
scarce, while some net importers may have abundant supplies,
as is the case for Central Europe.
Figure 4.6 Virtual water imports, exports and flows around the world, 19962005
Net virtual
water export
km3 per year
05
515
1535
3575
7595
Net virtual
water import
km3 per year
05
510
1015
1550
50115
Virtual water flows

Note: Only net flows related to trade in agricultural and
industrial products and greater than 15 km3 per year
are shown. The larger the arrow, the greater the flow.
106
Source: Adapted from Mekonnen and Hoekstra 2011
Changes to the hydrologic regime
Extreme events: floods and droughts

The number of flood and drought events classified as disasters
when ten or more people are killed, 100 are affected, a
state of emergency is declared or international assistance is
requested (EM-DAT 2011) has risen since the 1980s, as have
the total area and number of people affected and the level of
damages (EM-DAT 2011; Rosenfeld et al. 2008; Kleinen and
Petschel-Held 2007). River channelization, floodplain loss,
urbanization, particularly in coastal areas, and changing
land use are major reasons for the increasing impacts of
floods and droughts as well as growing vulnerability to those
impacts (Chapter 1). The number of people affected and total
damages vary significantly, making it hard to identify trends
with confidence (Lugeri 2010). Vulnerability depends on the
preparedness and capacity to anticipate and react to extreme
events. There are varying preparedness levels on a regional
basis for dealing with sudden-onset (floods) and gradual-onset
(droughts) disasters (IOM 2010).
Floods cause loss of life and billions of dollars of damage
annually (Figure 4.7), with the economic losses higher in
developed countries due to the financial valuation and insuring
of assets. Between the 1980s and the 2000s, a 230 per cent rise
in the number of flood disasters was accompanied by increasing
levels of damages (Figure 4.7) (EM-DAT 2011). In addition, the
number of people exposed to floods increased by 114 per cent
(UNISDR 2011). Over 95 per cent of deaths related to natural
disasters between 1970 and 2008 occurred in developing
countries (IPCC 2011) and although governments in South and
East Asia, for example, increased their disaster preparedness
levels, the capacity of communities to cope with such extreme
Box 4.5 Extreme events

Goals
Develop programmes for mitigating the effects of extreme
Indicators
Number of people affected by floods and droughts; total
damages from floods and droughts
Global trends
Modest progress in some years or regions and a deteriorating
situation in others
Deltas, low-lying areas, development in river floodplains,
islands, and urban areas with inadequate drainage
infrastructure are vulnerable to floods; communities directly
dependent on rain-fed agriculture are vulnerable to droughts
South East Asia, North America (Mississippi Basin) and Latin
America (Amazon Basin) for floods; small island developing
states (SIDS), West Asia, Northern and Western Africa,
Australia and South and Central Asia for droughts
events is weakening because of inadequate social capacity

and greater flood severity (Osti et al. 2011). Looking to the
future, higher precipitation intensity is forecast for the northern
Figure 4.7 People affected by and damages associated with floods and droughts, 19802010
Damages, US$ billion
45
People aected, million

600
500
Flood Drought
People aected
Damages
30
400
300
15
200
100
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Note: The costs of the large floods in Thailand and Pakistan in 2011 are not included here.
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: EM-DAT 2011
Water
107
hemisphere and equatorial areas, with many already arid and

semi-arid areas expected to get drier (IPCC 2007a).
The number of drought disasters rose by 38 per cent between the
1980s and the 2000s, the number of people affected increased
and related damages also increased (EM-DAT 2011). Droughts
disrupt sustainable social and economic development, hindering
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),
and place additional stresses on ecosystems. Communities
dependent on rain-fed crops, which represent approximately
70 per cent of global crop production, often have few alternative
food sources beyond international aid (Portmann et al. 2010).
This is evidenced by the severe ongoing drought in Eastern Africa
and the reduction of net primary production in Latin America,
Africa and South East Asia (Zhao and Running 2010). Droughts
also affect irrigation and can exacerbate water resource conflicts,
with arid and semi-arid areas being particularly vulnerable,
especially in the context of climate change.
Dams and river fragmentation
Dam building and river control significantly benefit humans,
providing flood protection, reliable water supplies and
hydroelectric power. But dams can also have detrimental
impacts on ecosystems, including channel fragmentation and
flow modification, altering ecosystem processes and affecting
aquatic organisms, particularly migratory species. Improved
management of existing dams to ensure environmental flows
and retain or create fish passes is important to mitigate conflicts,
although such measures often fall short as a full remedy (Gleick
2003). Careful trade-off analyses are necessary to ensure that
the design, location and operation of new dams minimize
environmental impacts (Matthews et al. 2011).
Box 4.6 Dams and river fragmentation

Goals
Secure an adequate and sustainable freshwater supply;
reduce water-related human health hazards (flood
protection); protect and restore freshwater ecosystems and
their services (often conflicting)
Indicators
Dam density
Global trends
Dam density is increasing; there is some progress on
adequate supply of sustainable freshwater; freshwater
ecosystems and their services are deteriorating
Populations displaced by dam construction; populations
dependent on dams for water supply
Developing countries, Asia, Southern Africa
Dam density is highest in industrialized countries (Figure 4.8),

although construction in developed regions has slowed because
most suitable locations have already been used, and because
recent legislation and public pressure do not support dam
construction. However, dam building is being actively pursued
in many developing countries to secure water and electricity
Figure 4.8 Global density of medium to large dams
Low density
High density
Source: Vrsmarty et al. 2010
108
supplies. As this trend is likely to continue (Chapter 1), dam

planning should consider any predicted increase in flow
variability associated with climate change.
Freshwater and marine water quality
Groundwater contamination
Groundwater around the world is threatened by pollution from
agricultural and urban areas, solid waste, on-site wastewater
treatment, oil and gas extraction and refining, mining,
Box 4.7 Groundwater contamination

Goals
Mitigate effects of groundwater contamination
Indicators
Arsenic, nitrate and salinization
Mining and mineral extraction can significantly reduce river or

groundwater levels. BanksPhotos/iStock
Global trends
Very little progress in some areas; deterioration in others
Populations in rapidly urbanizing areas with inadequate
sanitation
Arsenic is of particular concern in Bangladesh, India, highly
populated river deltas in South East Asia, North America and
Eastern Europe
manufacturing and other industrial sources. The primary causes

are inadequate control of these activities and exceedance of the
natural attenuation capacity of underlying soils and strata (Foster
et al. 2006). Salinization of overexploited aquifers, especially
in coastal areas, is another serious concern, particularly for
communities dependent on groundwater for drinking.
Groundwater nitrate concentrations are increasing, especially in
areas of rapid urbanization, inadequate sanitation and/or heavy
agricultural fertilizer use. Nitrate in groundwater contributes
Figure 4.9 Estimated risk of arsenic in drinking water, based on hydrogeological conditions
Level of risk
High
Moderate
Low
Very low
No data
Source: Schwarzenbach et al. 2010
Water
109
to eutrophication and has direct human health impacts. Both

naturally occurring arsenic and that mobilized by human
activities threaten drinking water quality in many countries
(Figure 4.9). Groundwater contaminated with arsenic from
natural geologic sources affects 3575 million people. Surface
water pollution in some regions has led to the development
of groundwater as a source of drinking water, resulting in
inadvertently exposing people to these natural sources of
arsenic (Schwarzenbach et al. 2010; Brunt et al. 2004).
Pathogenic contamination
Pathogenic contamination of surface and groundwater is a
critical threat to human health in many areas and contributes
to water treatment costs in many communities. Using domestic
sewage collection and treatment as a proxy, microbial
contamination has decreased over past decades in most
developed countries. In contrast, microbial pathogens are
often the most pressing water quality issue in many developing
countries (Figure 4.10).
Because human and animal faeces are the primary pathogenic
sources of water contamination, achieving MDG Goal 7c of
halving the population without basic sanitation by 2015 will
help reduce such pollution. Nevertheless, although some
regions have made significant progress, the world is currently
not on track to attain this goal (Figure 4.11). Improved
sanitation continues to bypass the poorest communities
Box 4.8 Pathogenic contamination

Goals
Improve sanitation coverage including sewage collection,
treatment and disposal; reduce and control freshwater and
marine pollution
Indicator
Faecal coliform concentration; population without access to
improved sanitation
Global trends
Some progress
Poorest and most rural communities
Africa, South Asia, South Pacific
and individuals, especially in Africa and South Asia (WHO

2012). Unless achieving the MDG sanitation goal in the future
includes the provision of wastewater collection and treatment
facilities, increasing access to improved sanitation could have
Figure 4.10 Faecal coliform concentrations in rivers near major cities an indicator of waterborne pathogens,
19902011
Human population size

Less than 500 000
500 0001 million
12 million
23 million
More than 3 million
110
No of organisms
per 100 ml water
Mean values
Less than 10
101 000
1 00010 000
10 000100 000
More than 100 000
Note: Raw sewage contains upwards of 10 million

organisms per 100 ml. Under World Health
Organization guidelines, water intended for human
consumption should contain no faecal indicator
organisms (WHO 2011b). Recreation standards
vary, but tolerate organism numbers only in the
low hundreds (per 100 ml) (WHO 2003a).
Source: UNEP-GEMS/Water Programme 2008
Figure 4.11 Population without access to improved sanitation compared to MDG target, 19902015
Population, %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Africa
Asia and the

Pacific
1990
Europe
Latin America
and the Caribbean
2000
2010
North America
West Asia
2015 projection
Note: For MDG monitoring, WHO/UNICEF defines an improved sanitation facility as one that hygienically separates human excreta from human contact (WHO 2012).
the unintended negative impact of delivering more untreated

wastewater to water bodies, further degrading downstream
water quality (Biswas and Tortajada 2011).
Nutrient pollution and eutrophication
Eutrophication, resulting from excessive nutrient pollution
from human sewage, livestock wastes, fertilizers, atmospheric
deposition and erosion (Chapter 3), is a continuing, pervasive
water quality problem. Although there has been increased
Box 4.9 Nutrient pollution and eutrophication

Goals
Reduce and control freshwater and marine pollution
Indicators
Marine: prevalence of coastal dead zones; frequency and
intensity of harmful algal blooms
Freshwater: global river exports of nitrogen and phosphorous
Global trends
Very little progress or deteriorating
South East Asia, Europe, eastern North America
World
2015 MDG target
Source: WHO 2012
sewage treatment in many areas, much less progress has

been made in reducing nutrient loads from non-point sources,
including agricultural and urban run-off and atmospheric
deposition to freshwater and marine systems. Interference with
global nutrient cycles may be reaching planetary boundaries,
beyond which marine and freshwater ecosystems might not
recover, although specific thresholds for these processes remain
uncertain (Rockstrm et al. 2009).
Global river nutrient export has increased nutrient export
has increased by approximately 15 per cent since 1970,
by approximately 15 per cent, since 1970, with South Asia
accounting for at least half of the increase (Seitzinger et al.
2010). There has been a 74 per cent increase in algal and
macrophyte gross productivity in lakes since 1970 (Lewis 2011),
and a dramatic increase in the number of eutrophic coastal
areas since 1990. Under severe eutrophic conditions, algal
blooms can produce hypoxic conditions, causing fish kills in
lakes, and dead zones in coastal areas. Hypoxia has become a
significant and increasing problem in lakes and rivers, estuaries
and coastal areas around the world (Diaz et al. 2010; Rabalais et
al. 2010; Diaz and Rosenberg 2008). At least 169 coastal areas
are considered hypoxic, with dead zones especially prevalent
in the seas around South East Asia, Europe and eastern North
America (Figure 4.12). Only 13 coastal areas appear to be
recovering (Diaz et al. 2010; Rabalais et al. 2010), most in North
America and northern Europe. Whereas phosphorus loads are
projected to level off, global river nitrogen loads are likely to
Water
111
Figure 4.12 World hypoxic and eutrophic coastal areas, 2010
Eutrophic
Hypoxic
Recovering
Source: Diaz et al. 2010
increase by an additional 5 per cent by 2030, mostly in South

Asia (Seitzinger et al. 2010).
Nutrients can also cause harmful algal blooms in freshwaters
and coastal areas, some releasing algal toxins that directly
affect human health (WHO 2003a), aquatic organisms and
livestock. The number of reported outbreaks of paralytic
shellfish poison, a harmful algal toxin found in eutrophic
waters, increased from fewer than 20 in 1970, to more than
100 in 2009 (Anderson et al. 2010).
Box 4.10 Marine litter

Goals
Reduce marine pollution
Indicator
Levels of litter at the shoreline; levels on the sea bottom
and in marine gyres
Global trends
Little to no progress
Coastal populations
Unknown
112
Marine litter
Litter is found in all the worlds oceans because of poor solid
waste management and the increased use of plastic (UNEP
2009). It damages wildlife, fisheries and boats, contaminates
coastal areas, and presents safety and human health risks.
Marine litter accumulates on coastal beaches, on the sea bottom
(Galgani et al. 2000) and large marine gyres in both the Atlantic
and Pacific Oceans (Law et al. 2010; Martinez et al. 2009).
Of the 12 seas surveyed between 2005 and 2007, the South East
Pacific, North Pacific, East Asian Sea and Wider Caribbean coasts
contained the most marine litter (UNEP 2009), and the Caspian,
Mediterranean and Red Seas the least. Regional studies of the
Baltic Sea (HELCOM 2009), Northeast Atlantic (OSPAR 2009),
US coastline (Sheavly 2007) and North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre
indicated no statistically significant changes in litter quantity
between 1986 and 2008, while data from the Mid-Atlantic
indicated an increase in land-based and general-source marine
litter during 19972007 (Ribic et al. 2010).
Persistent toxic chemicals
Toxic pollutants include the trace metals cadmium, lead
and mercury, pesticides and their by-products such as
dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and chlordecone,
industrial chemicals and combustion by-products. They are still
used in many places and thus continue to accumulate in aquatic
systems, leaving a legacy of sediment contamination; they are
found in 90 per cent of water bodies. The pollutants of greatest
concern are persistent, toxic and bioaccumulative (Chapter 6).
Organisms can accumulate contaminants from water, sediment
and food, acquiring tissue contaminant levels much higher
in 12 deep-sea fish species in the Western Pacific (Figure 4.13)

(Oshihoi et al. 2009) and PCB concentrations in at least four fish
species in San Francisco Bay (Davis et al. 2003) have also fallen
since the mid-1990s (Chapter 6).
Box 4.11 Toxic chemicals

Goals
Reduce marine and freshwater pollution
Emerging water quality concerns

Although conventional toxic pollutants are declining in many
industrialized areas, additional contaminants are raising new
concerns, for example the use of flame retardants such as
polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), a type of POP, has
increased exponentially over the past 30 years in Europe, North
America and Japan (Schwarzenbach et al. 2010). There are
also mounting concerns about pharmaceuticals and personal
care products that are not removed by most sewage systems,
and thus enter the environment after use. The long-term
risks to aquatic organisms and humans are largely unknown,
although it is clear that pharmaceuticals and endocrinedisrupting compounds can have biological effects at very low
concentrations (Schwarzenbach et al. 2010).
Indicators
Concentration of organochlorines in predatory fish species;
concentration of persistent organic pollutants in Arctic air
Global trends
Some progress
Coastal populations; populations dependent on fish for food
Polar regions
than those in the surrounding environment. Organochlorine

compounds such as polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) or DDT
concentrate in fatty tissues, remain for long periods and
biomagnify up the food chain, with the highest concentrations
found in top predators.
Concentrations of many persistent organic pollutants (POPs),
which tend to accumulate in the Arctic (Hung et al. 2010), have
decreased in Arctic air samples since the early 1990s (Chapter 2).
Tissue concentrations of at least three organochlorine chemicals
Nanoparticles and microplastics are relatively new water

pollutants (Chapter 6). Nanoparticles particles measuring
1100 nanometres, or billionths of a metre are increasingly
used in modern life. An emerging field of nanoecotoxicology is
examining their environmental fate and potential impacts on
aquatic ecosystems (Hassellv et al. 2008; Navarro et al. 2008).
Microplastics, from the deterioration of plastic objects, may
contain additives that accumulate in aquatic organisms (GESAMP
2010; Ryan et al. 2009), and their concentrations, especially in
marine systems, are expected to follow increases in global plastic
consumption. Additional types of pollutants about which little is
Figure 4.13 Trends in organochlorine contamination in selected deep-sea fish species, 19952005
Nanograms per gram of lipid weight
900
PCBs
800
900
DDTs
800
700
600
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
400
300
300
300
200
200
100
100
1995
2005
25
HCBs
20
15
60
10
40
5
100
0
2005
Etmopterus lucifer
PCBs = Polychlorinated biphenyls
DDTs = Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes
HCHs
120
80
200
1995
140
100
500
CHLs
20
0
0
1995
Lycodes hubsi
CHLs = Chlordane compounds
HCBs = Hexachlorobenzenes
2005
1995
Synaphobranchus kaupi
2005
1995
2005
Lampanyctus jordani
HCHs = Hexachlorocyclohexanes
Note: Samples were collected from the Western Pacific o the coast of Japan.
Source: Oshihoi et al. 2009
Water
113
Box 4.12 Ballast water and invasive species
Box 4.13 Water security
Invasive species, a form of biological pollution, pose

great threats to aquatic ecosystems and can cause severe
environmental and economic damage. Ballast water is a major
vector for transporting species around the world. The Ballast
Water Convention of 2004 required the implementation
of management plans, with open-ocean ballast exchange
commonly used to reduce introductions. Since this is
unfeasible in many shipping routes, some countries, including
Denmark and Australia, have instituted regulations requiring
ballast water treatment to kill resident organisms.
Goals
Secure adequate sustainable freshwater supply
currently known will doubtless continue to be identified.

Although not new, industrial, medical, military and accidental
releases of radioactive substances are of renewed concern, as
illustrated by the water contamination after the 2011 tsunami
damaged Japanese nuclear power plants. Invasive alien species
also remain a problem for many coastal areas (Box 4.12; Chapter 5).
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
Water security and human health
As previously noted, regional differences exist regarding both

absolute water availability and the limitations placed on it by
inadequate infrastructure. Both relate to water security, as does
Indicators
Human water security threat
Global trends
Deteriorating
Developing countries with increasing water demand
Africa, West Asia, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and
the Caribbean
water pollution, because they can all affect the range of human and
environmental water uses. Despite improvements, lack of access to
drinking water of adequate quality and quantity remains one of the
largest human health problems globally. Inadequate water supply is
an inherently regional phenomenon, however, caused by basin-level
water scarcity, regional water quality, inadequacies of infrastructure
and governance, cultural perspectives and inequitable water pricing.
Although the MDG target on water supply was met in 2011, more than 600 million people will lack safe water supplies in 2015. Kibae Park/UN Photo
114
Figure 4.14 Threats to water security with and without infrastructure investment, 2000
Threat level with no infrastructure investment

Low
Threat level adjusted by infrastructure investment

High
Source: Vrsmarty et al. 2010
Water security
Although several definitions for water security have been
proposed since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, none has been
universally accepted (Oswald Spring and Brauch 2009). Varying
definitions, leading to numerous indices based on different
criteria, make it difficult to generate trend data. The Ministerial
Declaration of the Hague broadly defines water security to
include the protection and improvement of freshwater and
marine ecosystems, sustainable development and political
stability, with the aim of providing every person with access to
enough safe water at an affordable cost to lead a healthy and
productive life, as well as protecting vulnerable communities
from water-related risks and hazards (World Water Council 2000).
About 80 per cent of the worlds population lives in areas with high
water security threats, the most severe category encompassing
3.4 billion people, almost all in developing countries. Water
security threat here refers to the cumulative effect of 23 drivers
that have an impact on water resources, categorized into
watershed disturbance, pollution, water resource development
and biotic factors (Vrsmarty et al. 2010). More people are
likely to experience severe water stresses in the coming decades
because of increased demands (Chapter 1) in addition to altered
precipitation patterns associated with climate change.
Figure 4.14 highlights the global threat to human water security
and compares it with the magnitude of threat after adjusting for
the effects of previous and current infrastructure investment.
With higher investments in infrastructure in the industrialized
countries, the figures show that human water security can be
increased, overcoming the various threats to water resources
(Vrsmarty et al. 2010), while low investments in developing
countries means their water security remains poor. Investments
must be coupled with adequate institutional capacity, and
because infrastructure development often occurs at the expense
of aquatic biodiversity and environmental quality, it is imperative
that environmental risks related to investments are considered
and appropriately mitigated.
Box 4.14 Access to improved water

Goals
Ensure equitable access to improved drinking water supply
Indicators
Proportion of population without an improved drinking water
source; rural-urban equity
Global trends
Significant progress on improved supply; modest progress on
rural-urban equity
Poor in developing countries and rural areas
South Pacific sub-region; most of Africa, especially the West
Indian Ocean sub-region
Equitable access to improved drinking water

Although water security is an increasing problem in many regions
of the world, significant progress in access to improved drinking
water has been made since 1990. However, several regions,
including most of Africa and other rural areas in developing
countries, still lack access to improved drinking water sources
(UNDESA 2010). The UN General Assembly declared access to
clean water and sanitation as a human right in July 2010, although
the right is not yet recognized or applied in many countries.
Recent data suggest that the MDG drinking water target was met
in 2010 (Figure 4.15). However, there are important inequities
in this improvement. Whereas only 4 per cent of people in urban
areas lacked access to improved drinking water in 2010, in rural
Water
115
Figure 4.15 Population without access to improved drinking water, 19902015

Population, %
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Africa
Asia and the

Pacific
1990
Europe
Latin America
and the Caribbean
2000
Note: As defined by WHO/UNICEF, an improved drinking-water source is one that, by

nature of its construction or through active intervention, is protected from outside
contamination, particularly from faecal matter.
areas 19 per cent of residents lacked such access. Progress

towards achieving MDG 7c primarily reflects increased use of
technology and infrastructure to overcome poor water quality or
water scarcity (WHO 2012).
2010
North America
West Asia
2015 projection
World
2015 MDG target
Source: WHO 2012
Water-related diseases
Water-related diseases, as defined by the World Health
Organization (WHO), include those caused by microorganisms
and chemicals in drinking water; diseases like schistosomiasis,
Box 4.15 Water-related diseases

Goals
Reduce water-related human health hazards
Indicators
Water-related-disease deaths measured as disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs); number of reported cholera cases
Global trends
Some progress
Poor in developing countries and rural areas; communities
that have experienced natural disasters
Africa
116
Dengue fever and malaria, both diseases transmitted by mosquitoes,

are most problematic where there is stagnant water in which
mosquitoes can breed. Salem Alkait/iStock
Figure 4.16 Cholera cases by region, 19892009

Number of cases, thousands
700
Number
of cases, thousands
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Africa
West Asia
West Asia
Africa
Note: Reported cases are an underestimate of total cases because many go unreported.
Note: Reported cases are an underestimate of total cases because many go unreported.
Source: WHO 2010
Source: WHO 2010
Box 4.16 Diarrhoea in children in Africa

At any given time, over half the worlds hospital beds
are filled with people suffering from water-related
diseases (UNDP 2006). Diarrhoeal diseases make up
more than 4 per cent of the global disease burden,
90 per cent being linked to environmental pollution
and lack of access to safe drinking water and sanitation
(Prss-stn et al. 2008). Africa has the highest burden
of diarrhoea-related childhood deaths, accounting for
70 per cent of the 1.3 million deaths of children less than
five years old in 2008. Not surprisingly, access to basic
sanitation is also poorest in sub-Saharan Africa, with
330 million people lacking access to proper sanitation
(WHO 2011a).
whose vector spends part of its life cycle in water; diseases

like malaria with water-related vectors; and others such
as legionellosis carried by aerosols containing certain
micro-organisms.
Such diseases are a major public health concern, especially
in Africa. Globally, diarrhoea related to inadequate sanitation
and water supply was the second largest contributor to the
2004 global disease burden, claiming more than 70 million
disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lost due to

ill-health, disability or early death (Box 4.15) (Prss-stn
et al. 2008). Global health statistics indicate that Africa
and South Asia contain the areas most severely affected
by waterborne disease (WHO 2004).
The WHO is focusing on reducing 25 different water-related
diseases (WHO 2011a). There have been some notable successes
in the reduction of onchocerciasis, malaria, schistomiasis and
cholera. However, globally reported cholera incidence which
serves as a proxy where complete data on water-related disease
trends are lacking has increased in recent years, mainly in
Africa (Figure 4.16). In 2009, 45 countries from all continents
reported 221226 cases of cholera (Figure 4.16). Water-related
diseases are a continuing public health problem in developing
countries lacking access to adequate drinking water and
sanitation, as further evidenced by the cholera epidemic in Haiti
following the 2010 earthquake (Walton and Ivers 2011).
Water-energy-climate nexus
Water, energy, economic development and climatic change are

interdependent issues. Increases in human population and
per-person consumption related to economic development drive
energy demands. Meanwhile the use of fossil fuel energy produces
greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change,
which has effects on water, including extreme weather events, loss
of ice cover, water scarcity and sea level rise. In turn, responses to
climate change have implications for the water environment. Some
Water
117
Table 4.2 Observed and projected impacts of climate change on key hydrological variables
Key variables
Observed trends
Projections for the 21st century
Precipitation
The trend is unclear; increases in general precipitation over

land from 30 N to 85 N; notable decreases from 10 S to 30
N
Total precipitation is projected to increase (by 13%

per oC of temperature rise), with varying changes at the
regional scale
Precipitation intensity
Disproportionate increase in volume of precipitation in heavy

or extreme precipitation events; intensification in extreme
precipitation on global scale
Heavy precipitation is projected to increase by

approximately 7%peroC of temperature rise
Droughts
Drought increased in the 20th century measured by the Palmer

Drought Severity Index, although some areas became wetter
and/or drought intensity has lessened
Drought intensity will increase in some areas and

seasons; patterns are complex and difficult to predict
Tropical cyclones
High degree of uncertainty about any detectable change being

related to climate change
Likely increase in average tropical cyclone maximum

wind speed but decreased frequency; changes in
frequency and track are uncertain
Glaciers and snow cover
There is a decrease in glacial masses, but not in all regions, and

decreased snow cover in northern hemisphere regions; peak runoff from glacier and snowmelt is earlier
Continued decrease in glacial mass and snow cover
Sea level
Sea levels increased by about 0.2 metres over the 20th century; a
rise equivalent to 0.3 metres per century has been recorded since
the early 1990s, although it is not clear if this is an acceleration
in long-term sea level rise
Sea level is projected to rise by 0.20.6 metres by

2100, although the upper end of the range could be
much higher
Ocean acidification
The mean surface ocean pH has decreased from 8.2 to 8.1
pH is projected to decrease to 7.7 or 7.8 by 2100 if

present trend persists
Sea surface temperature
Increased by 0.5o C since 1980
Continued increase
Source: IPCC 2011; Feely et al. 2009; World Bank 2009; IPCC 2007c
forms of solar energy consume significant quantities of water,

often in arid regions. With increasing water scarcity, some regions
also rely on desalinization of marine water, requiring large energy
inputs (World Bank 2009). In addition, droughts have the potential
to decrease hydropower production (Box 4.21).
Climate change impacts on the water cycle and ocean warming
The hydrologic cycle refers to the continuous movement of water
through the oceans, atmosphere and over and under land surfaces.
There is strong evidence that climate change is altering global
and regional hydrologic cycles (Bates et al. 2008; IPCC 2007a;
Kundzewicz et al. 2007), with impacts predicted to be manifested
as changing precipitation patterns, increased intensity of extreme
weather events and consequent natural disasters, retreating glaciers
resulting in altered river discharge regimes, and more intense
droughts in semi-arid regions (Table 4.2) (IPCC 2007b).
Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding projected
impacts on specific water systems, climate change has the
potential to seriously affect water management (Bates et al. 2008).
Nonetheless, the global impacts of other human activities on the
hydrologic cycle urbanization, industrialization, water resources
development are likely to exceed those related to climate change,
at least for the next two to three decades (Gordon et al. 2005).
If climate change impacts are to be addressed, the cost of the
additional water infrastructure needed by 2030 to provide a
sufficient quantity of water for all countries is estimated at
118
US$911 billion per year (UNFCCC 2007), 85 per cent of this in

developing countries. There are additional costs associated with flood
Box 4.17 Climate change impacts on human security

Goals
Mitigate and adapt to adverse effects of climate change on
Indicators
Extreme precipitation; glacial retreat; drought intensity; water
sector costs of climate change adaptation
Global trends
Some progress on adaptation and mitigation strategies; little
or no progress on funding and implementation
People dependent on rain-fed agriculture and/or glacial melt;
those relying on non-renewable groundwater in the long term
Arid regions, tropics, and coastal areas that experience
cyclones and hurricanes
risk management and water quality protection (Parry et al. 2009).

There are signs of increased awareness of mitigation and
adaptation needs: of 191 water projects funded by the World
Bank between 2006 and 2008, 35 per cent incorporated
mitigation and adaptation measures for climate change impacts
(World Bank 2009). At the same time, however, local and
regional efforts to increase protection against floods and other
extreme events are likely to have significant negative impacts on
aquatic ecosystems themselves.
The most direct climate change impact on oceans is increased
sea surface temperature (SST), which has risen by 0.5C
globally since the 1980s and is predicted to continue increasing
throughout the 21st century (IPCC 2007a). Global precipitation
is predicted to increase at a rate of 13 per cent per degree
of surface warming (Wentz et al. 2007), with more extreme
precipitation events predicted for many tropical and temperate
regions (IPCC 2011; Gorman and Schneider 2009).
Melting ice sheets and sea level rise
Sea level rise is caused by ocean thermal expansion and by
melting glaciers and ice sheets (IPCC 2007a). Although average
global sea level has remained relatively constant for almost
3000 years, it increased by approximately 170 mm during the 20th
century (IPCC 2007b), and is projected to rise by at least another
400 mm (+/-200 mm) by 2100 (IPCC 2007a). Measurements from
1993 to 2008 indicate that sea levels are already rising twice as
fast as in previous decades (Cazenave and Llovel 2010) and are
exceeding the rise predicted by climate models.
Although there is considerably variability associated with these
and other estimates of sea level rise (Levitus et al. 2009; Ishii
and Kimoto 2009), 2550 per cent of sea level rise observed
Box 4.18 Sea level rise

Goals
Mitigate and adapt to adverse effects of climate change on
Indicators
Sea level rise; cost of adaptation to sea level rise
Global trends
Very little to no progress
Coastal areas, island communities, high-density
populations in deltas
Coastal areas (deltas and African coast), small island
developing states, the Arctic, Antarctica and high
mountain regions
Box 4.19 Ocean acidification

Goals
Protect and restore marine ecosystems and their services
Indicators
Ocean pH
Global trends
Deteriorating
Communities dependent on tropical fisheries that rely
on coral reef ecosystems and other calcareous primary
producers
Tropical oceans
since 1960 has been attributed to thermal expansion (Cazenave

and Llovel 2010; Antonov et al. 2005; Willis et al. 2004). Some
variability may result from water impounded in reservoirs, which
is estimated to have reduced sea level rise by 3055 mm over
the past 50 years (Chao et al. 2008). Small glaciers and ice
caps exhibited significant mass losses over the 20th century
(Dyurgerov and Meier 2005) and freshwater run-off from melting
land-based ice sources will increase in the future. However, with
losses accelerating over the past 20 years, melting Greenland
and Antarctic ice sheets have become the biggest contributors
to sea level rise, and will remain the dominant contributor to
sea level rise in the 21st century if current trends continue
(Rignot et al. 2011; Rignot 2008).
Because of the high concentrations of human populations and
infrastructure in coastal zones (McGranahan et al. 2007), many
countries are vulnerable to sea level rise and associated coastal
and low-lying community flooding (Chapter 7). Developing
countries, particularly small island developing states (SIDS)
and deltaic areas, are especially vulnerable (IPCC 2007c), many
with limited capacity to adapt to rising sea levels or recover from
associated losses. The estimated costs of coastal adaptation
range from US$26 billion to US$89 billion per year by the 2040s,
depending on the magnitude of sea-level rise (World Bank 2010).
Ocean acidification
The oceans annually absorb a substantial proportion of
anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), which reacts with water
to form carbonic acid, thereby making the ocean more acidic.
The mean surface ocean pH has already decreased from a preindustrial average of about 8.2 to a present value of 8.1, though
there are regional differences (Figure 4.17; Chapter 2), and Feely
et al. (2009) project a pH decrease to a mean of about 7.8 by
2100. Ocean acidification may be approaching the planetary
boundary (Rockstrm et al. 2009).
Water
119
Figure 4.17 CO2 concentrations and ocean acidification in the North Pacific, 19602010
pH level
CO2, ppm/microatmospheres
8.40
400
Mauna Loa: atmospheric CO2, ppm
375
8.35
8.30
8.25
350
8.20
325
Aloha sea water:

pCO2 (dissolved CO2), ppm
8.15
8.10
300
8.05
Aloha sea water: pH level

275
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
8.00
2010
Source: Feely et al. 2009
Increased ocean acidity affects marine animals with carbonate

shells and skeletons, calcareous algae and other organisms
(Langdon and Atkinson 2005). Affected organisms include reefbuilding corals as well as animals critical to ocean food webs,
including several important human food sources such as crabs
and molluscs. Combined with higher water temperatures, ocean

acidification is thought to be a major cause of coral bleaching,
destroying coral reef ecosystems around the world (HoeghGuldberg et al. 2007), with some studies projecting a rapid
contraction of tropical coral reefs by 2050 (Chapter 5) (Logan
2010). Coral reefs provide important ecosystem services, such as
spawning and nursery grounds for some commercially important
fish species. Impairment of these ecosystems and their services
are becoming increasingly evident and illustrate the need for
governance to enhance their protection.
Impacts of energy development on water resources
While global data are lacking, the energy sector is believed to
account for approximately 40 per cent of total water withdrawals
in the United States and European Union (EU) (Glennie et al.
2010). Water demands for energy range from extraction and
processing of raw materials to driving hydropower turbines and
cooling thermoelectric plants, including nuclear. Fossil fuel
extraction can also have serious impacts on water quality.
Ocean acidification is threatening marine life, particularly corals and

shellfish. It could have a devastating effect on communities dependent
on fishing and aquaculture. Extreme-photographer/iStockv
120
Oil and gas exploration and production can affect both

freshwater and marine ecosystems. Newly proven technologies
are accelerating the expansion of new natural gas wells in shale
gas basins (EIA 2011). Associated water resource impacts are
currently being researched, including aquifer contamination
with potentially explosive methane levels (Osborn et al. 2011),
surface and groundwater contamination, streams receiving
water discharges (Johnson et al. 2007), and high consumptive
water use for well drilling and completion (Chapter 7). Oil sand
exploitation also requires large water volumes and can produce
severe water pollution (Kelly et al. 2010).
Box 4.20 The Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 4.9 million barrels of crude
oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 was the largest accidental
marine oil spill in history. Although the economic and
ecological costs have not yet been fully quantified, it caused
extensive damage to marine life, wildlife habitats, fishing
and tourism. Unlike previous oil spills, in which most of the
oil dissipated or evaporated, immense underwater plumes
and thick layers of dissolved oil remained on the seafloor
in spring 2011, tar balls continued to wash ashore and
wetlands marsh grass continued to foul and die.
Source: National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling 2011
Oil spills continue to pose an environmental threat, particularly

to marine ecosystems. Although the number of oil tanker spills
has decreased significantly since the 1970s and 1980s (ITOPF
2010), the recent large spill associated with offshore oil and
gas exploration in the Gulf of Mexico is evidence of ongoing
risks to marine ecosystems (Box 4.20). Nevertheless, with
increasing global oil and gas demands, such offshore activity

is expected to increase over the next two decades, facilitated
by the resolution of maritime boundaries and improved access
to previously inaccessible areas as Arctic ice melts. The Arctic
contains approximately 20 per cent of the worlds undiscovered
but technically recoverable oil and gas resources (Bird et al.
2008; AMAP 2007), but the region is uniquely vulnerable to oil
spills because of its remoteness, harsh physical environment, the
aggregation of large numbers of marine mammals and the slow
rate of oil degradation in cold water.
The most water-intensive form of electricity production is
biomass, followed by hydropower, oil, coal and nuclear, gas,
some concentrated solar power systems and geothermal, solar
photovoltaics, and wind. Exact values vary greatly, depending
on electricity generation type and location (Glennie et al. 2010).
Many forms of concentrated solar power, for example, which may
be most effective in arid areas exhibiting high solar energy levels,
also require significant quantities of water for cooling, sometimes
as much as fossil-fuel-powered plants. There are cases in which
water scarcity is already affecting energy production. More than
half of existing or planned capacity for major power companies
in South and South East Asia, for example, is located in waterscarce or water-stressed areas (Figure 4.18) (WRI 2010).
Figure 4.18 Thermal power and hydropower plant locations and water stress levels in five countries of South
and South East Asia
Philippines
Sea
INDIA
VIET NAM
PHILIPPINES
THAILAND
Power plant
Water stress
Scarce
Stressed
Moderate availability
Abundance
Indian Ocean
MALAYSIA
Note: Water stress indicators represent the ratio of total withdrawals to utilizable water, but do not reflect anticipated demographic or climate changes such as the timing or quantity of precipitation.
Source: WRI
Water
121
Box 4.21 The impacts of drought on hydropower

production
Droughts have significantly decreased hydropower output
in Eastern Africa over the past ten years, adversely
impacting national economies. Low water levels in
Lake Victoria between 2004 and 2006, for example,
reduced hydropower output in Uganda by 50 megawatts,
contributing to a fall in the economic growth rate from
6.2 per cent to 4.9 per cent over this period (Karakezi
et al. 2009).
Climate change mitigation policies can also affect water

demands for electricity production. Capture and storage
of carbon emissions from coal-fired plants, for example,
can increase water consumption by 4590 per cent (Glennie
et al. 2010). Further, increasing the proportion of electricity
generated from biomass or some types of concentrated solar
power is likely to have significant negative impacts on water
availability, highlighting the need for selecting power
generation types that use less water and more efficient
technologies (Chapter 12).
Water governance
Water problems frequently translate into inadequacies of

water governance (RCSE-SU and ILEC 2011; UNESCO 2006),
as illustrated by many of the water goals laid out in Table 4.1.
Box 4.22 Integrated water management

Goals
Develop and implement integrated management
strategies and plans; protect and restore freshwater
Indicators
Progress made towards developing and implementing
integrated water management plans
Global trends
Some progress in certain areas; insufficient data
for others
Populations in developing countries directly
dependent on freshwater systems for well-being
and livelihoods
Developing regions, particularly those with water
shortages and/or water quality degradation
122
Adaptive freshwater management and integrated planning

Agenda 21 of UNCED called for integrated approaches to
the development, management and use of water resources
(UNCED 1992), subsequently leading to the development of
several integrated management paradigms, including integrated
water resources management (Global Water Partnership
2000), integrated lake basin management (International Lake
Environment Committee 2006), and integrated coastal zone
management, as mentioned in the Jakarta Mandate on Marine
and Coastal Biodiversity (CBD 1997) and other outputs of the
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Integrated management
approaches also offer a degree of protection against the negative
impacts of natural disasters such as the devastating earthquake
and tsunami that struck Japan in 2011.
The need for integrated approaches was formalized in Paragraph
26 of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, which states
that governments should develop integrated water resources
management and water efficiency plans by 2005 through actions
at all levels (WSSD 2002). This overall target has not been met.
However, data from studies in 2003 and 2005, primarily involving
developing countries, and for 2008 and 2012 for all countries,
do suggest significant headway from the development of plans
to their implementation particularly in developed countries
(Figure 4.19). Progress appears to have slowed, however, in
developing countries (UN-Water 2012).
Some water professionals and policy makers suggest that in
some cases the integrated management concept is insufficiently
specific for practical implementation (Placht 2007; Watson et al.
Figure 4.19 Progress in the development and

implementation of integrated water management plans
% of respondents
60
50
2003
2005
2007
2011
40
30
20
10
Initial stages only
Some progress
Significant progress
Source: Global Water Partnership 2006; UN-Water 2012
Coastal sand dunes buffer the coastline against wave damage and protect the land from saltwater intrusion. Rui Miguel da Costa Neves Saraiva
2007), and is slow to get under way owing to many institutional,

economic, political and resource constraints (Brauch et al.
2009; Lansky and Uitto 2005). Further, although integrated
water management proposes cross-sectoral coordination, all
relevant government agencies and key water stakeholders may
not be in agreement (Biswas 2004). Because participatory
approaches do not always ensure consideration of gender
perspectives, a systematic assessment of the differing impacts
of economic development on women and men is also necessary
to ensure that water issues affecting both genders are part of
programme planning, implementation and evaluation, including
ensuring institutional and organizational changes for gender
equality as an ongoing commitment (Bennett et al. 2005).
Further, although integrated management can be applied at
many levels, from village to basin to national to transboundary,
there are management issues particular to each of these levels
(Lenton and Muller 2009), necessitating both bottom-up and
top-down approaches. Existing evidence, however, suggests
that integrated policies have focused largely on higher-level
activities such as national policy reforms or the establishment
of river basin organizations, rather than on on-the-ground
implementation of integrated management activities at the local
level (Perret et al. 2006).
The European Commission (EC) applied integrated water
resources management principles in its Water Framework
Directive in 2000, and a flood risk management directive in
2007. Further, although implicit in goals such as Paragraph 26
of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, there is no global
multilateral environmental agreement specifically directed
at aquifer conservation. There are, however, several regional
groundwater initiatives, including the 2008 establishment of
the Africa Groundwater Commission (AMCOW 2008). Because
poor groundwater governance is a major issue, recognizing
groundwater systems in national laws would be a first step
towards improved groundwater governance, followed by

establishing sustainable institutions and financing.
While social science literature on regional experiences with
integrated water management and international river basin
management is increasing, there is little data on the state and
trends of such approaches, particularly their long-term benefits
and impacts. Research has focused more on the concept and
its application, and less on relevant policy implementation,
highlighting the need for better progress indicators as well as
continued monitoring frameworks to assess effectiveness (RCSESU and ILEC 2011; UN-Water 2012). Certain policy initiatives
have supported, inter alia, international river basin regimes,
and include the Transboundary Water Assessment Programme
(TWAP), to be implemented by UNEP for the purpose of developing
a methodology for monitoring and assessing trends regarding,
among other things, environmental and human water stresses,
pollution, population density and water system resilience.
Marine governance
Marine systems are a major food source, a means of transport for
international shipping, a tourism attraction and a climate change
regulator. Coastal dunes and tidal wetlands are important buffers
against tidal flooding. A number of international conventions
have been established to protect the marine environment,
demonstrating significant levels of international cooperation,
although a common limitation is their dependence on national
legislation that may reflect other agendas.
Regarding international agreements, the 1972 Convention on
the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and
Other Matter (the London Convention) and the 1973 International
Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)
address marine pollution. The United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982), ratified by 160 countries and in
Water
123
force since 1994, represents a unified approach towards shared

use of the oceans and their resources, addressing navigation,
economic rights, pollution, marine conservation and scientific
exploration. Notwithstanding the concern with increasing
marine litter, the conventions are generally viewed as positive
frameworks for controlling and preventing marine pollution. The
2004 International Convention for the Control and Management
of Ships Ballast Water and Sediments exemplifies collaborative
actions to address the introduction of alien invasive species,
which can cause significant environmental and economic damage.
Another noteworthy international effort is the Global Programme
of Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Landbased Activities (GPA), adopted by 108 governments and the
EC in 1995. Although not enforceable, the GPA was designed to
guide national and regional authorities in undertaking sustained
action to prevent, reduce and/or eliminate marine degradation

from land-based activities. Many countries profess to subscribe
to its goals, providing a means for developing collaborative
strategies to address coastal and offshore water degradation
from influent freshwaters. Marine spatial planning, similar to
land planning or zoning on public lands, is another emerging
area of possibilities for marine governance.
The regional seas conventions (UNEP and independent
conventions), other action plans, and the large marine
ecosystem concept promulgated by the US National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), also represent integrated
management approaches (Figure 4.20). Development and
implementation of these plans differ, however, depending on
the countries involved, with some programme guidelines being
binding on the participating states while others are not.
Figure 4.20 Map of 18 regional seas and 64 large marine ecosystems, 2011
NORTH-EAST
ATLANTIC ARCTIC
BALTIC
SEA
23
ARCTIC
64
20
58
BLACK SEA
CASPIAN
SEA
ROPME SEA
AREA
MEDITERRANEAN
32
35
36
34
RED SEA AND

SOUTH
GULF OF
ADEN 31
ASIAN
EASTERN SEAS
30 AND
SOUTHERN
AFRICA
53
52
50
48
47 49
EAST
ASIAN 45
SEAS
44
43
64
56 54 55
57
62
33
ARCTIC
64
10
11
NORTHEAST
PACIFIC
37
38
39
40
41
42
SOUTHEAST
PACIFIC
PACIFIC
46
21
27
WIDER
12 CARIBBEAN
BALTIC
SEA
23
MEDITERRANEAN
28
17
16
13
15
WESTERN,
CENTRAL
AND 29
SOUTHERN
AFRICA
14
30
ANTARCTIC
61
20
19 60
22
9 NORTH- 24
EAST 25
8
26
7
ATLANTIC
63
51
NORTHWEST
PACIFIC
59
18
ANTARCTIC
ANTARCTIC
61
61
Large marine ecosystems of the world

1. East Bering Sea
2. Gulf of Alaska
3. California Current
4. Gulf of California
5. Gulf of Mexico
6. Southeast US Continental Shelf
7. Northeast US Continental Shelf
8. Scotian Shelf
9. Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf
10. Insular Pacific-Hawaiian
11. Pacific Central-American Coastal
12. Caribbean Sea
13. Humboldt Current
14. Patagonian Shelf

15. South Brazil Shelf
16. East Brazil Shelf
17. North Brazil Shelf
18. West Greenland Shelf
19. East Greenland Shelf
20. Barents Sea
21. Norwegian Shelf
22. North Sea
23. Baltic Sea
24. Celtic-Biscay Shelf
25. Iberian Coastal
26. Mediterranean Sea
27. Canary Current

28. Guinea Current
29. Benguela Current
30. Agulhas Current
31. Somali Coastal Current
32. Arabian Sea
33. Red Sea
34. Bay of Bengal
35. Gulf of Thailand
36. South China Sea
37. Sulu-Celebes Sea
38. Indonesian Sea
39. North Australian Shelf
Note: ROPME is the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment, one of the regional seas programmes.
124
40. Northeast Australian ShelfGreat Barrier Reef

41. East-Central Australian Shelf
42. Southeast Australian Shelf
43. Southwest Australian Shelf
44. West-Central Australian Shelf
45. Northwest Australian Shelf
46. New Zealand Shelf
47. East China Sea
48. Yellow Sea
49. Kuroshio Current
50. Sea of Japan
51. Oyashio Current
52. Okhotsk Sea

53. West Bering Sea
54. Chukchi Sea
55. Beaufort Sea
56. East Siberian Sea
57. Laptev Sea
58. Kara Sea
59. Iceland Shelf
60. Faroe Plateau
61. Antarctic
62. Black Sea
63. Hudson Bay
64. Arctic Ocean
Source: UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva 2011
Box 4.23 Competition and conflict

Goals
Strengthen institutional coordination mechanisms
Indicators
Number of conflictive and cooperative events; number of
institutions and treaties
Global trends
Some progress
Communities in transboundary basins with inadequate
institutional frameworks
Those with water stress and undergoing rapid
development
The open oceans beyond national jurisdiction comprise almost

half the planets surface, with rapidly advancing technology
opening major new oceanic frontiers for commercial uses
including fishing, shipping, resource exploration and for potential
marine engineering such as deep-ocean CO2 sequestration. The
open oceans and deep-sea ecosystems, including seamounts,
trenches and canyons, cold water corals and hydrothermal vents,
exhibit a wealth of biodiversity. Larger, slow-growing, long-lived
and heterogeneously distributed species are adapted to stable
conditions in these environments, and are particularly sensitive
to environmental stresses. Governance of areas beyond national

boundaries is weak and fragmented, however, and requires
strengthening in preparation of increasing human activities and
their impacts on areas within national jurisdictions, as well as to
ensure conservation and sustainable use of the open oceans.
Water as a basis for conflict and cooperation
Competition for shared water resources can cause conflicts,
particularly at the local level, with water needs usually
immediate, and resources often inadequate to address all
competing needs. Intrastate conflicts occur between rural and
urban sectors such as agricultural, industrial and municipal
and between water-reliant livelihood activities such as fishing,
agriculture and livestock grazing. Population growth, economic
development and climate change can exacerbate management
issues. Further, about 40 per cent of the global population
lives in transboundary river basins that cover nearly half of
the Earths land surface and provide more than 60 per cent of
global freshwater flows (Figure 4.21), imparting an additional
management difficulty.
There also are increasing incidents of deliberate or threatened
poisoning of water supplies (Pacific Institute 2011; Greenberg
2009). Sixty-nine water conflicts were documented for 2000
2010 in the Water Conflict Chronology List maintained by the
Pacific Institute, compared to 54 recorded for 19751999.
Although specific incidents were not described in detail, De
Stefano et al. (2010) found about 67 per cent of 1831 reported
water events for 19481999 were cooperative, with only
28 per cent being conflictive in nature; by 20002008, the
proportion of conflictive events had increased slightly, to 33
per cent. Infrastructure and water quantity were consistently the
major issues likely to generate conflict (Figure 4.22). Although
Figure 4.21 International river basins, 2000
Africa
Asia
Europe
North America
Source: Wolf 2007
Water
125
Figure 4.22 Freshwater conflict by type of issue, 19481999 and 20002008

19481999
Flood control
2%
Hydropower
10%
Water quality
6%
20002008
Technical
cooperation
2%
Other
4%
Hydropower
7%
Flood control
6%
Technical
cooperation
3%
Other
7%
Water quality
10%
Infrastructure
19%
Joint
management
12%
Joint
management
20%
Water quantity
45%
Infrastructure
27%
Water quantity
20%
Source: De Stefano et al. 2010
water conflicts have occurred in many locations, and disputes

could increase in the future (Kundzewicz and Kowalczak 2009;
Greenberg 2009), current evidence suggests greater potential
for cooperation than for conflict, particularly at the international
level (De Stefano et al. 2010).
About 158 of the 263 international freshwater basins still lack
cooperative management frameworks, while less than 20 per
cent of the 106 basins with water institutions have multilateral
agreements in effect (De Stefano et al. 2010). Evidence suggests,
however, that freshwater systems with established transboundary
basin organizations can usually improve cooperation, major
examples including the Lake Victoria basin and the La Plata,
Mekong and Senegal River basins (Chapter 8). In fact, about 295
international water agreements have been signed since 1948.
There are relatively few transboundary groundwater institutions,
though codification of the law of transboundary aquifers by the
UN International Law Commission (ILC), adopted by resolution of
the UN General Assembly in 2008, is a major advance.
While transboundary basin organizations have facilitated
so-called hydro-diplomacy, conflict management and dispute
resolution (Oswald Spring 2007), there also are contrary
examples. Although water scarcity in the Senegal River basin
resulted in cooperation, the subsequent building of dams
precipitated violent conflict (Kipping 2009). Further, with
population growth and climate change, water scarcity may
lead to new conflict constellations, including climate-induced
degradation of freshwater resources, declining food production
and increased storm and flood disasters, which may further
undermine food security (WBGU 2008).
126
No similar analysis exists for potential conflicts related to

overfishing and deep-sea mineral exploration in the open
oceans, although several international agreements identified
in the section on marine governance address them to varying
degrees. The sustainable use of coastal areas and ocean
resources requires effective coordination and cooperation at
regional and global levels, with examples including UNEPs
13 regional seas programmes and the 64 large marine
ecosystems (Figure 4.20). The EU Marine Strategy Framework
Directive is another regional instrument, applicable in European
waters under the jurisdiction of EU Member States that border
the Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas and North-East Atlantic.
Although the regional seas programmes and large marine
ecosystems are consistent with UNCLOS and generally reflect the
targets of the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development
(WSSD), their achievement status remains unclear.
OUTLOOK AND GAPS
Freshwater and marine water issues remain high priorities

globally, as evidenced by the multilateral agreements including
conventions and action plans guiding the scope of this chapter.
Table 4.3 summarizes trends and, where possible, provides an
outlook of the state of the water environment, using indicators to
evaluate progress towards the agreements in Table 4.1.
There has been progress since 1990 in achieving goals directly
related to human well-being and economic development,
including access to water supplies and reduction of some toxic
pollutants threatening human health. Water-related diseases
and water supply in the rural areas of developing countries,
however, require increased attention. There has also been
progress on water governance with the development of integrated

water resource management plans and transboundary water
agreements. However, these plans must now be implemented,
adequately funded and enforced to improve aquatic ecosystems
and the sustainability of their life-supporting goods and services.
Improving water security and ensuring equitable access to
water resources remains a challenge. Against a background of
continuing water degradation and overexploitation, the need
for sustainable water supplies remains one of humanitys most
critical resource needs. There also has been little to no progress
in most regions in reducing nutrient loads to freshwaters and
coastal areas, or for governance beyond national jurisdictions.
The complexity of the drivers and associated pressures on aquatic
ecosystems is a key barrier to attaining internationally agreed
goals directed at addressing their root causes. Lack of appropriate
indicators or targets for many environmental, socio-economic
and governance goals makes assessing progress towards
achieving water-related goals and sustainable aquatic ecosystems
especially problematic. Other major barriers include inadequate
capacity, limited access to technology and funding, information
and data gaps, and lack of quantifiable targets. More emphasis,
including enhanced monitoring efforts, should be directed to
acquiring reliable data on the impacts of climate change and
extreme weather events on human health and well-being, and
on environmental integrity. Unfortunately, monitoring of water
quality, quantity and ecosystem health has been reduced in many
regions. As a result, there are increasing uncertainties regarding
assessment and management of the water environment, due both
to data gaps and to the rapidly changing nature of water issues,
including those related to climate change.
Men pulling a raft packed with their belongings through flood waters on a
road in Pathum Thani, Thailand, in October 2011. ruchos/iStock
Finally, analysis of the state and trends regarding the multilateral

environmental agreements identified in Table 4.1 indicates a
continuing major need for research, policy development and
implementation on the national and international level. Data
collection, including of gender-specific data, also requires greater
attention, especially regarding the impacts of extreme weather
events storms, floods and droughts on affected people. This
should form a basis for future policy development, adoption
and implementation to enhance the security and livelihoods of
all affected by such events, including women, children and the
elderly (Bennett et al. 2005). Although this assessment is limited
by many data and information gaps, sufficient information exists
to develop useful policy action to address the water and related
land issues identified in this chapter.

B: Some progress
Key issues and
goals

D: Deteriorating
State and trends

Outlook
Gaps
Pressure to build more

dams and irrigation
infrastructure will continue
to be driven by increasing
demand for energy and
food
Global data on the state of freshwater

ecosystems; quantifiable targets for
ecosystem preservation and restoration
from acute and chronic impacts
1. Ecosystem
Protect and
restore freshwater
ecosystems and
their services
Protect and restore

marine ecosystems
and their services
Half of countries have made significant progress towards

developing and implementing integrated water resources
management plans. It is unclear, however, how many reflect
improved management of freshwater ecosystems. Many
medium and large-scale dams have been constructed since
1990, especially in developing countries, disrupting the
hydrologic regime integral to freshwater ecosystem function
See Chapter 5
D/B D: Ocean warming and acidification is accelerating and stressing

marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs; 415 coastal areas
are eutrophic of which 169 have hypoxic dead zones
B: There are 18 regional seas conventions and action plans
involving 143 countries that aim to improve ecosystem health,
among other goals; 64 large marine ecosystems cover the
worlds coastal regions, some being effectively managed, while
others lack funding and commitment of participating countries,
resulting in slow progress
B: See Chapter 5 regarding protected areas
Many tropical coral

pH target for oceans
reefs could rapidly die
by 2050 due to ocean
acidification and warming;
other significant threats
to marine ecosystems
include land-based
pollution and lack of
governance of high seas
Water
127
Table 4.3 Progress towards goals (see Table 4.1) continued

1. Ecosystem continued
Conserve and improve
management of
wetlands
Ensure
environmental water
needs
See Chapters 3 and 5
Human water consumption jeopardizes ecosystems by utilizing Expected to get worse as

environmental flows in nearly a third of major river basins
water demands increase

Data on monthly environmental flows required

to maintain ecosystem services at the basin
level; legal recognition of environmental
water needs (Part 2); target to define and
ensure that minimum environmental water
requirements are met at the basin level;
incorporation of environmental flows into
basin allocation schemes
Increased access to improved water supply and sanitation

has reduced water-related human health hazards globally and
there have been notable successes in reducing some water
related diseases; nevertheless, 3.5 million people still die each
year from water-related diseases as of 2004; the frequency of
paralytic shellfish poisoning has increased by a factor of five
since 1970
Projected to continue
improving access to water
supply and sanitation.
Africa projected to lag
behind the rest of the
world
Updated water-related disease and

hazards data; mechanism for strict
implementation of MDG at local scales
Ensure equitable
access to improved
drinking water
supply
A/B
A: Population without access to improved drinking water

supply has been reduced from 23% in 1990 to 13% in 2008 and
is projected to be 9% by 2015
B: More improvement has been made in urban than rural
communities, leaving large inequities in access; the reliability
and quality of water supplies are of concern in many areas
Population without access

to improved drinking water
supply is projected to be
9% by 2015, meeting the
related MDG
Data on safe (not just improved) drinking

water access by region; mechanism for
strict implementation of MDG; agreed
definition of equitable
Secure adequate
and sustainable
freshwater supply
D/B D: Global water withdrawals have tripled over the last 50 years
to meet increasing demands, with groundwater particularly at
risk; 80% of people live in areas with high levels of threats to
water security, including 3.4 billion people in the most severe
threat category
B: Construction of dams is improving access to freshwater
supply in many developing countries
More people are likely to

experience more severe
water stresses in coming
decades; planetary
boundaries for freshwater
use are expected to be
reached in the coming
decades
Water security metric defined and data

developed to allow tracking of trends
over time (groundwater recharge; global
withdrawals and consumption from the
energy sector; global overlays of water
scarcity and demand from energy);
agreed definition of water security and
related metrics
Develop
programmes for
mitigating the
effects of extreme
B/D
B: Many governments report major progress towards

implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies
D: The number of drought and flood disasters increased by
38% and 230% respectively from the 1980s to the 2000s,
while the number of people exposed to floods increased by
114%
Increased precipitation
intensity and aridity is
expected to accentuate
extreme water-related
events in many parts of
the world
Holistic cost-benefit analyses of various

adaptation and mitigation measures and
impact analyses of mitigation efforts; policy
integration, both horizontal (e.g. between
sectors) and vertical (e.g. from global
to regional to local); risk management
strategies for vulnerable communities
Mitigate and adapt

to adverse effects
of climate change
on the water
environment
B/C
B: Broad adaptation tools, scenario-based approaches and

adaptive management are being formulated at multiple scales;
planned interventions in the water sector can be also be found
in national adaptation programmes of action (NAPAs) of the
least developed countries; 35% of World Bank water projects
during 20062008 included mitigation and adaptation
measures for climate change
C: The costs of adapting to climate change are additional to
those required to meet current MDG targets on water and
sanitation, which are themselves underfunded
As scientific uncertainty
is reduced at regional and
local levels and awareness
increases, mitigation and
adaptation measures are
expected to increase;
climate change adaptation
costs for the water sector
and sea level rise will be
at least US$35100 billion
per year
Reporting of mitigation and adaptation

outcomes; monitoring and early warning
for water-related climate extremes;
long-term observatories for monitoring
changes to the hydrologic cycle as a result
of climate change
Irrigation efficiency is poor in many regions; irrigation

technologies have become more efficient but have not been
widely applied; some efficiency improvements have occurred
through virtual water trade
The rate of implementation

of water efficiency is not
on track to keep pace with
growing demand; virtual
water trade could help
efficiently redistribute water
Water resource efficiency trend data by

sector (including energy sector) and
country; virtual water trade trend data;
efficiency impacts of virtual water trade;
quantitative efficiency targets by sector;
water allocation efficiency including
environmental flows
2. Human well-being
Reduce water-related
human health
hazards
3. Water use efficiency

Improve the efficient
use of water
resources
4. Water quality
Reduce and control
freshwater pollution
128
?/C
No global datasets of freshwater quality have been available to

No outlook data identified
assess overall trends; there have been some local water quality
improvements but faecal coliforms in at least parts of most
major river systems exceed WHO standards for drinking; gross
algal and macrophyte productivity in lakes has increased by 74%
globally
Global and regional data on sediment,

nutrients, marine litter, toxic chemicals
and emerging contaminants; rigorous
global and regional water quality index
based on comprehensive long-term data;
water quality standards and targets for
emerging contaminants

4. Water quality continued
Reduce and control
marine pollution
Improve sanitation
coverage, including
sewage collection,
treatment and
disposal
D/C/B D: At least 415 coastal areas with serious eutrophication.

Global nutrient run-off increased by approximately 15% since
1970.
C: No statistically significant changes in the quantity of coastal
or marine litter, although data are scarce for many regions
B: Reduction of many contaminants in fish tissue; notable
recent contamination events include the Fukushima nuclear
crisis in Japan and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf
of Mexico
B
Nitrogen loads to oceans

are projected to increase
from 43.2 million tonnes
per year in 2000 to 45.5
million tonnes per year
in 2030
Global and regional data on sediment,

nutrients, marine litter, toxic chemicals
and emerging contaminants
The population with access to improved sanitation increased

from 54% to 61% during 19902008, though improvements are
bypassing the poorest and most rural communities; 2.6 billion
people (1 in 2.5) were without access to improved sanitation
in 2008
Not globally on track to

meet the MDG target of
halving the proportion of
people without access to
improved sanitation
Water security metric defined and data

developed to allow tracking of trends
over time (groundwater recharge; global
withdrawals and consumption from the
energy sector; global overlays of water
scarcity and demand from energy); agreed
definition of water security and related
metrics
5. Institutional and legal

Recognize the
economic value of
water
See Chapter 5 for discussion of ecosystem services; Chapters

10, 11 and 12 give examples of water pricing schemes and
market-based solutions that reflect the value of water and
aquatic ecosystems
Data on scope, magnitude and value of

water-related ecosystem services (e.g.
value of wetlands as buffers against
extreme events); goals and targets
recognizing, protecting and valuing
ecosystem services for human and
environmental health and well-being
Develop and enforce

legal frameworks
and regulations
UNCLOS was ratified by 160 countries and the Global

Programme of Action (GPA) adopted by 108 countries; legal
frameworks for industrial and municipal wastewater discharge
exist in most developed countries although non-point-source
regulations lag behind; governance of areas beyond national
boundaries is weak and fragmented; enforcement remains an
issue in many regions.
Capacity to effectively assess and regulate

environmental impacts beyond national
jurisdictions
Strengthen
institutional
coordination
mechanisms
Two-thirds of transboundary water-related events are

cooperative, although the number of water conflicts has
increased since the 1970s; 295 international water agreements
have been signed since 1948; less than 20% of the 106 basins
with water institutions have multilateral agreements in effect;
143 countries participate in 18 regional seas programmes,
and the large marine ecosystem approach has delineated 64
management units globally
Metrics of coordination effectiveness
Reporting mechanism and meaningful

governance indicators for countries
progress towards integrated water
resources management, including the
effectiveness of such approaches;
implementation of policy goals
6. Water resources management

Develop and
implement
integrated
management
strategies and plans
B/?
There has been an increased recognition of the need for

integrated approaches for freshwater and marine system
management; about half of countries have made significant
progress towards developing and implementing integrated
approaches to water resources management and water
efficiency, but the 2002 WSSD target is far from being met;
implementation is slowed by financial, legal and/or capacity
barriers; there is insufficient data to evaluate the long-term
effectiveness of integrated water resource management
Developing countries
in particular will face
difficulties implementing
integrated management
approaches due to lack
of funding, capacity and
governance
Develop adequate
monitoring systems
(national, regional
and global)
C/D
Data are fragmented, lacks complete global coverage or is not

regularly updated; marine monitoring and remote sensing data
acquisition has increased, but global freshwater monitoring
has declined and is now inadequate; modelling and remote
sensing are complementing monitoring in many instances, but
still rely on adequate data
Comprehensive monitoring Metadata on existing data; agreed

systems will continue to be quantitative targets on comprehensive
limited by financing and
monitoring and reporting systems
capacity
Improve stakeholder
participation
and mainstream
gender in water
management
No quantitative global data are available to assess this

goal; stakeholder engagement and gender mainstreaming is
becoming more common globally, but is still lacking in many
regions
No outlook data available
Data to assess stakeholder participation,

including roles of women and men, and
separating data by sex; institutionalized
stakeholder participation; systematic
gender impact assessment
No outlook data available
Global level datasets on groundwater

contamination, availability and
withdrawal; transboundary management
of groundwater resources (precluded by
the data gap)
Improve
groundwater
management
C/D/? C: Arsenic and nitrates threaten aquifers in many countries D:

Many aquifers are being drawn down at unsustainable rates;
efficient management requires more data for quantitative
assessment of the problem
?: Transboundary groundwater systems have been largely
ignored due largely to insufficient data and lack of agreement
Water
129
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C H A P T E R
Credit: Peter Prokosch
Biodiversity
Coordinating lead authors: Dolors Armenteras, C. Max Finlayson

Lead authors: John Agard, Stuart H.M. Butchart, Joji Carino, William W.L. Cheung,
Ben Collen, Leslie G. Firbank, Simon Hales, Marc Hockings, Robert Hoft, Justin Kitzes,
Melodie A. McGeoch, Christian Prip, Thomasina E.E. Oldfield, Kent H. Redford and
Heikki Toivonen
Contributing authors: Neil Burgess, Mario Baudoin, Bastian Bertsky, Nigel Dudley,
Rod Fuentes, Alessandro Galli, Valerie Kapos, Linda Krueger, Yogesh Gokhale,
Ashish Kothari, John Robinson, J. Carter Ingram, Camilo Garcia Ramirez, Dan Laffoley,
Jrn P.W. Scharlemann, Damon Stanwell-Smith, John G. Robinson, Bas Verschuuren,
Johanna von Braun, Kabir Bavikatte, Holly Shrumm and Monica Morales Rivas (GEO Fellow)
Principal scientific reviewer: Klement Tockner
Chapter coordinator: Alison M. Rosser and Matt J. Walpole
Water
133
Main Messages
The pressure on biodiversity continues to increase.
Habitat loss and degradation from agriculture
and infrastructure development, overexploitation,
pollution and invasive alien species remain the
predominant threats. Climate change is increasing
in importance and will have profound impacts,
particularly in combination with other threats. Greater
integration of policies and institutional responses,
including effective engagement of local communities,
is required to stop and reverse current trends. The
world lost over 100 million hectares of forest from
2000 to 2005, and has lost 20 per cent of its seagrass
and mangrove habitats since 1970 and 1980
respectively. In some regions, 95 per cent of wetlands
have been lost. The condition of coral reefs globally
has declined by 38 per cent since 1980. Two-thirds
of the worlds largest rivers are now moderately to
severely fragmented by dams and reservoirs.
The state of global biodiversity is continuing to
decline, with substantial and ongoing losses of
populations, species and habitats. For instance,
vertebrate populations have declined on average
by 30 per cent since 1970, and up to two-thirds
of species in some taxa are now threatened with
extinction. Declines are most rapid in the tropics,
in freshwater habitats and for marine species
utilized by humans. Conversion and degradation
of natural habitats is ongoing, with some having
experienced declines of 20 per cent since 1980.
Limited successes, such as saving particular
species from extinction, reversing the decline of
some populations, and restoring some habitats, are
outweighed by continuing declines.
The benefits humans obtain from biodiversity are at
risk. Conversion of natural habitats to large-scale,
commercial agriculture has resulted in net benefits
for human well-being. However, this has often
been accompanied by reductions in other services,
134
134

such as carbon sequestration and flood regulation.

Continuing ecological degradation, unsustainable
levels of consumption and inequities in sharing
of the benefits from biodiversity threaten the
improvements in human well-being and health that
have been achieved in recent decades.
There has been an increase in responses to the loss
and degradation of biodiversity, although these
have failed to reduce the decline, and more effort
is needed. Successful responses include: increases
in the designation of protected areas, now covering
nearly 13 per cent of land area, and increasing
recognition of indigenous and local communitymanaged areas; and adoption of policies and actions
for managing invasive alien species and genetically
modified organisms (GMOs). About 55 per cent of
countries have legislation to prevent the introduction
of new alien species and control existing invasives,
but less than 20 per cent are estimated to have
comprehensive strategies and management plans,
and there is a lack of data on their effectiveness.
Successful responses also include regulations
that support sustainable harvesting and reduced
pollution; successful species recoveries and habitat
restoration; and some progress towards equitable
access to and benefit sharing of genetic resources.
International financing for biodiversity conservation
is estimated to have grown by about 38 per cent in
real terms since 1992 and now stands at US$3.1
billion per year. But less than 1.5 per cent of the
marine area is covered by protected areas.
An opportunity to develop a concerted global
approach to stop and reverse the decline of
biodiversity is provided by the recent adoption of
the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity (20112020)
including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, and
acceptance of the Nagoya Protocol on Access and
Benefit Sharing.
INTRODUCTION
Biodiversity is formally defined by the Convention on Biological

Diversity (CBD) as: the variability among living organisms from
all sources including, among others, terrestrial, marine and other
aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they
are part; this includes diversity within species, between species
and of ecosystems (UN 1992 Article 2).
In recent years the links between biodiversity and ecosystem
services and the benefits people derive from these have received
increasing attention (CBD 2010b; TEEB 2010; Sutherland et
al. 2009; UNEP 2007; MA 2005a; 2005b). There is growing
evidence that biodiversity has a vital role in attaining the
Millennium Development Goals: it contributes to poverty
reduction and to sustaining human livelihoods and well-being
through, for example, underpinning food security and human
health, providing clean air and water, and supporting economic
development (UNEP 2007; MA 2005a). Given the importance of
biodiversity and evidence of its ongoing decline (CBD 2010b), it
is essential to chart progress in reducing and, as far as possible,
reversing the rate of decline.
Recent assessments of the status of biodiversity have shown
little evidence of improvement. The third Global Biodiversity
Outlook (GBO-3), was launched in May 2010 (CBD 2010b),
and showed that biodiversity has continued to decline since
publication of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA 2005a)
and the last Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4) (UNEP 2007).
This chapter builds on these recent assessments. The three
objectives of the CBD, namely, the conservation of biological
diversity, the sustainable use of its components, and fair and
equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of

genetic resources, as well as the missions and objectives of other
biodiversity-related conventions are all considered.

The current chapter presents globally agreed indicators and goals for
biodiversity, in particular the Aichi Biodiversity Targets (Box 5.1).
The implications for human well-being of not achieving these
targets are examined and gaps in achieving internationally
agreed goals for biodiversity are identified, so as to frame key
messages for the international community. Current knowledge
of the pressures, state and trends affecting biodiversity and of
the benefits of biodiversity to people is synthesized from past
assessments and recent publications. Management responses
that address these pressures are also examined so as to chart
progress in safeguarding biodiversity. In particular, crossboundary issues are tackled from both an ecological and an
equity perspective. The links between biodiversity and traditional
knowledge and cultural diversity are also considered before
concluding with a look to the future.
Goals and targets are one aspect of the policy agenda for
assessing progress in meeting global commitments for
biodiversity. Eighteen goals related to biodiversity have
been identified (Table 5.1). These range from the Millennium
Development Goal 7 to ensure environmental sustainability, to the
most recent five strategic goals and 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets
of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 20112020 (Box 5.1). These
biodiversity goals and targets have been clustered into themes
and prioritized by taking into account the links between them and
by reference to key biodiversity issues (Table 5.1).
Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya, renowned as a sanctuary for more than 400 bird species, also offers refuge to large ungulates including waterbucks.
Jason Jabbour
Biodiversity
135
Box 5.1 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 20112020 and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets
reduction strategies and planning processes and are being
incorporated into national accounting, as appropriate, and
reporting systems.
Target 3: By 2020, at the latest, incentives, including
subsidies, harmful to biodiversity are eliminated, phased out
or reformed in order to minimize or avoid negative impacts,
and positive incentives for the conservation and sustainable
use of biodiversity are developed and applied, consistent
and in harmony with the Convention and other relevant
international obligations, taking into account national socioeconomic conditions.
Target 4: By 2020, at the latest, governments, business
and stakeholders at all levels have taken steps to achieve
or have implemented plans for sustainable production and
consumption and have kept the impacts of use of natural
resources well within safe ecological limits.
Actor Edward Norton, UN Goodwill Ambassador for Biodiversity,
addresses a press conference on the dangers of global biodiversity
loss. Rick Bajornas/UN Photo
The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 20112020 (CBD 2010c),

including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets (CBD 2010a), was
adopted by the Parties to the Convention on Biological
Diversity (CBD) in October 2010, following many regional
consultations, expert workshops and high-level events
organized in collaboration with numerous partners. The
plan contains five strategic goals and establishes targets
for achieving the vision of a world living in harmony with
nature and where, by 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved,
restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services,
sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential
for all people (CBD 2010c Decision X/2).
It is envisaged that the plan will be implemented primarily
through activities at the national or sub-national level, with
supporting action at the regional and global levels. Countries
have committed to developing national and regional targets,
using the plan and its Aichi Targets as a flexible framework to
integrate these targets into national biodiversity strategies and
action plans, and to develop indicators to report on progress in
2014 and 2018.
Strategic goal A: Address the underlying causes of
biodiversity loss by mainstreaming biodiversity across
government and society
Target 1: By 2020, at the latest, people are aware of the values
of biodiversity and the steps they can take to conserve and use
it sustainably.
Target 2: By 2020, at the latest, biodiversity values have been
integrated into national and local development and poverty
136
Strategic goal B: Reduce the direct pressures on biodiversity

and promote sustainable use
Target 5: By 2020, the rate of loss of all natural habitats,
including forests, is at least halved and where feasible brought
close to zero, and degradation and fragmentation
is significantly reduced.
Target 6: By 2020, all fish and invertebrate stocks and aquatic
plants are managed and harvested sustainably, legally and
applying ecosystem-based approaches, so that overfishing
is avoided, recovery plans and measures are in place for
all depleted species, fisheries have no significant adverse
impacts on threatened species and vulnerable ecosystems
and the impacts of fisheries on stocks, species and
ecosystems are within safe ecological limits.
Target 7: By 2020, areas under agriculture, aquaculture and
forestry are managed sustainably, ensuring conservation of
biodiversity.
Target 8: By 2020, pollution, including from excess nutrients,
has been brought to levels that are not detrimental to
ecosystem function and biodiversity.
Target 9: By 2020, invasive alien species and pathways are
identified and prioritized, priority species are controlled or
eradicated, and measures are in place to manage pathways
to prevent their introduction and establishment.
Target 10: By 2015, the multiple anthropogenic pressures
on coral reefs, and other vulnerable ecosystems impacted by
climate change or ocean acidification are minimized, so as to
maintain their integrity and functioning.
Strategic goal C: Improve the status of biodiversity by
safeguarding ecosystems, species and genetic diversity
Target 11: By 2020, at least 17 per cent of terrestrial and
inland water areas, and 10 per cent of coastal and marine
areas, especially areas of particular importance for
biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through
effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative

and well-connected systems of protected areas and other
effective area-based conservation measures, and integrated
into the wider landscapes and seascapes.
Target 12: By 2020, the extinction of known threatened
species has been prevented and their conservation status,
particularly of those most in decline, has been improved
and sustained.
Target 13: By 2020, the genetic diversity of cultivated plants
and farmed and domesticated animals and of wild relatives,
including other socio-economically as well as culturally
valuable species, is maintained, and strategies have been
developed and implemented for minimizing genetic erosion
and safeguarding their genetic diversity.
Strategic goal D: Enhance the benefits to all from biodiversity
and ecosystem services
Target 14: By 2020, ecosystems that provide essential
services, including services related to water, and contribute
to health, livelihoods and well-being, are restored and
safeguarded, taking into account the needs of women,
indigenous and local communities, and the poor and
vulnerable.
Target 15: By 2020, ecosystem resilience and the
contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been
enhanced, through conservation and restoration, including
restoration of at least 15 per cent of degraded ecosystems,
thereby contributing to climate change mitigation and
adaptation and to combating desertification.
Target 16: By 2015, the Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic
Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits

Arising from their Utilization is in force and operational,
consistent with national legislation.
Strategic goal E: Enhance implementation through participatory
planning, knowledge management and capacity building
Target 17: By 2015, each Party has developed, adopted as
a policy instrument, and has commenced implementing an
effective, participatory and updated national biodiversity
strategy and action plan.
Target 18: By 2020, the traditional knowledge, innovations
and practices of indigenous and local communities relevant
for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, and
their customary use of biological resources, are respected,
subject to national legislation and relevant international
obligations, and fully integrated and reflected in the
implementation of the Convention with the full and effective
participation of indigenous and local communities, at all
relevant levels.
Target 19: By 2020, knowledge, the science base and
technologies relating to biodiversity, its values, functioning,
status and trends, and the consequences of its loss, are
improved, widely shared and transferred, and applied.
Target 20: By 2020, at the latest, the mobilization of financial
resources for effectively implementing the Strategic Plan for
Biodiversity 20112020 from all sources, and in accordance with
the consolidated and agreed process in the Strategy for Resource
Mobilization, should increase substantially from the current levels.
This target will be subject to changes contingent to resource needs
assessments to be developed and reported by Parties.
Delegates in Nagoya, Japan, during the tenth Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, where signatories adopted a
new UN Strategic Plan, including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. IISD/Earth Negotiations Bulletin
Biodiversity
137
Table 5.1 Selected internationally agreed goals and themes related to biodiversity
Major themes from internationally agreed goals
Biodiversity
Pressures
State and
trends
Benefits
Responses
Aichi Biodiversity Targets

5,6,7,8,9,10
International Plant
Protection Convention
(IPPC) (FAO 1951) Article 1
11,12,13
120
Convention on International International cooperation for the protection of species of wild

fauna and flora against overexploitation through international
Trade in Endangered
trade
Species of Wild Fauna and
Flora (CITES 1973) Preamble
Ramsar Convention on
Wetlands (UN 1973) Article 3
Promote conservation of wetlands included in the list and wise

use of other wetlands in national territory
Convention on the
Conservation of Migratory
Species of Wild Animals
(CMS 1979) Preamble
Concerted action by states within the national jurisdictional

boundaries of which migratory species spend any part of their life
cycle to conserve and effectively manage such species
Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992)

Chapter 17 Paragraph 86
Identify priority marine ecosystems and limit use in these areas,

through, inter alia, designation of protected areas
Convention on Biological
Diversity (CBD 1992)
Article 1
Conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and the fair

and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilization of
genetic resources
Article 6
National strategies for the conservation and sustainable use

of biodiversity and integration of such into relevant plans,
programmes and policies
Article 8j
Maintain knowledge of indigenous communities relevant for the

conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity, promote
their wider application and encourage the equitable sharing of
resulting benefits
Article 10
138
14,15,16
Measures to prevent the introduction and spread of plant pests

and to promote appropriate measures for their control
Sustainable use of components of biological diversity and

encourage relevant cooperation, protect traditional cultural
practices and support remedial action where biological diversity
has been reduced
Decision VII/28
Paragraph 1.2.3
Sustainable use of components of biological diversity and

encourage relevant cooperation, protect traditional cultural
practices and support remedial action where biological diversity
has been reduced
CBD COP 7 (2004) Decision

VII/30 Annex II
Integrate protected areas into broader landscapes and seascapes

through ecological networks, ecological corridors and/or buffer
zones to maintain ecological processes and take into account the
needs of migratory species
20112050 Vision (CBD

2010c)
Control threats from invasive alien species
Millennium Summit (2000)

Millennium Development
Goal (MDG) 7 (UN 2000)
Living in harmony with nature and where, by 2050, biodiversity

is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining
ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering
benefits essential for all people
Johannesburg Plan of
Implementation (JPOI)
(WSSD 2002) Paragraph 44
Ensure environmental sustainability
Cartagena Protocol on
Biosafety to the CBD (CBD
2000) Article 1
Sustainable use of biological diversity and fair and equitable

sharing of benefits arising from the use of genetic resources
International Treaty on
Plant Genetic Resources
for Food and Agriculture
(ITPGRFA) (FAO 2001)
Ensuring an adequate level of protection in transfer, handling

and use of living modified organisms resulting from modern
biotechnology
Article 1 Paragraph 1.1
Sustainable agriculture and food security through the conservation

and sustainable use of plant genetic resources and the fair and
equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of their use
World Summit Outcome

(UNGA 2005)
Promote and safeguard the fair and equitable sharing of benefits

arising out of the utilization of genetic resources; significantly
reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010
STATE AND TRENDS
Box 5.2 Biodiversity vision: a world in harmony

with nature
Biodiversity is affected by multiple drivers and pressures that

modify its ability to provide ecosystem services to people.
The interaction of multiple drivers, including demographic,
economic, socio-political, scientific and technological ones,
as discussed in Chapter 1, is known to increase pressures on
biodiversity, leading to further decline, degradation and loss.
However, the mechanisms associated with such loss require
further research.
Related goals
Reduce direct pressures on biodiversity; improve the status of
biodiversity; enhance benefits from biodiversity; strengthen
responses to safeguard biodiversity
Indicators
Trends in: invasive species and pollutants such as nitrogen
deposition; extinction risk of species; extent, condition
and integrity of biomes, habitats and ecosystems; status of
species harvested for food and medicine; development and
effectiveness of protected areas, indigenous and communityconserved areas, sustainable use management and payment
for ecosystem services programmes; and in the number of
languages and speakers as a proxy for traditional knowledge
supporting sustainable resource use and conservation
Pressures
The principal pressures on biodiversity include habitat loss and

degradation, overexploitation, alien invasive species, climate
change and pollution (Figure 5.1) (Baillie et al. 2010; Vi et al.
2009; MA 2005a). These pressures are continuing to increase
(Box 5.3) (Butchart et al. 2010; CBD 2010b).
Habitat loss
Habitat loss in the terrestrial domain has been caused largely
by the expansion of agriculture: more than 30 per cent of land
has been converted for agricultural production (Foley et al.
2011). Large-scale commercial agriculture has adversely affected
biodiversity, particularly agro-biodiversity (Belfrage 2006; Rosset
1999). Moreover, the growing demand for biofuels has taken a
toll, with expanses of forests and natural lands in South East Asia
being converted into mono-crop plantations (Danielsen et al.
2009; Fitzherbert et al. 2008).
Global status and trend

Pressures on biodiversity are expected to increase, and
the status of biodiversity is expected to decrease, but
encouragingly, responses are starting to increase
particular have faced a 50 per cent loss in the 20th century

(MA 2005b). Freshwater ecosystems are severely affected by
fragmentation (Nilsson et al. 2005) and floodplain ecosystems
Direct habitat loss is a major threat to coastal ecosystems

through aquaculture (Valiela et al. 2004). Wetlands in
Figure 5.1 Major threats to vertebrates listed as critically endangered, endangered or vulnerable on the IUCN Red List
Proportion of threatened species aected, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Agriculture/aquaculture
Logging
Residential/commercial development
Invasive alien species
Pollution
Hunting/trapping
Climate change/severe weather
Change in fire regime
Dams/water management
Energy production/mining
Fisheries
Human disturbance
Transport/service corridors
Native species
Note: Some species have multiple threats.
Source: Baillie et al. 2010
Biodiversity
139
Box 5.3 Global Biodiversity Outlook

The Global Biodiversity Outlook is a periodic report prepared
by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
The third edition (GBO-3) was one of the main assessments of
progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity Target of significantly
reducing the current rate of biodiversity loss at global,
regional and national levels, and was an important source
of information in the development of the Strategic Plan for
Biodiversity 20112020 and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.
The main conclusion of GBO-3 was that the 2010 Biodiversity
Target had not been met. Specifically, the underlying causes of
biodiversity loss have not been addressed despite increasing
responses by governments. Pressures on biodiversity have
remained high or continued to increase, leading to ongoing
degradation of ecosystems, reductions in species populations
and increasing extinction risks, as well as erosion of genetic
variety (Figure 5.2).
Most future scenarios of biodiversity change project continuing
high levels of population and species extinctions and loss of
are also threatened (Tockner et al. 2008; Tockner and Stanford

2002). Benthic habitats have been degraded as a consequence
of bottom trawling and other destructive fishing methods
(Thrush and Dayton 2002).
habitats, with associated decline of some ecosystem

services important to human well-being. There is a high risk
of degradation of a broad range of such services if ecosystems
are pushed beyond threshold levels.
While the conclusions of GBO-3 give cause for concern,
the report also provides a message of hope. Many actions
in support of biodiversity have been taken, and have had
significant and measurable results in particular areas and
amongst targeted species and ecosystems. This suggests that,
with adequate resources and political will, the tools exist for
reducing the erosion of biodiversity. Preventing further loss
in the near term will be extremely challenging, but it can be
achieved in the longer term if effective action is initiated now
in support of an agreed long-term vision. Initiating action
to address the underlying causes of biodiversity decline is
paramount. Failure to use this opportunity will result in many
ecosystems moving into new, unprecedented states in which
the capacity to provide for the needs of present and future
generations is highly uncertain.
Overexploitation
Overexploitation of wild species to meet consumer demand
threatens biodiversity, with unregulated overconsumption
contributing to declines in terrestrial, marine and freshwater
Land conversion to oil palm plantations in Sabah, Malaysia, has encroached on the natural habitat of the orangutan, significantly threatening the
species. Johannes Refisch/UNEP
140
Figure 5.2 Biodiversity indicator trends

STATE
Waterbird
Population
Status Index
PRESSURE
Wild Bird Index
RESPONSE
Ecological footprint
Sustainably managed forest
Living Planet Index

1970
2010 1970
2010 1970
2010
Nitrogen deposition
Red List Index
Protected areas
1970
2010 1970
2010 1970
2010
Marine Trophic Index

Alien species
IBA/AZE area protected
1970
2010 1970
2010 1970
Seagrass
Forest
2010
Overexploited fish stocks

Biodiversity aid
Mangrove
Coral
1970
2010 1970
2010 1970
Climate Impact Indicator
Water Quality Index
1970
2010 1970
2010
Note: IBA = Important Bird Area; AZE = Alliance for Zero

Extinction. Please refer to source for confidence intervals.
Trends in the state of biodiversity are shown by

indicators of species population trends, extinction
risk, habitat extent and condition and community
composition. Pressures on biodiversity are shown
by indicators of ecological footprint, nitrogen
deposition, numbers of alien species, overexploitation and climatic impacts. Responses are shown
by indicators of sustainable forest management,
2010 protected areas and biodiversity-related aid.
Source: Adapted from Butchart et al. 2010
Biodiversity
141
Figure 5.3 Numbers of vertebrates globally threatened by overexploitation, 2010
Number of species threatened by hunting, fishing or trapping

Terrestrial
1
15
30
Marine
53
60
16
23
33
55
Source: IUCN 2010
ecosystems (Figure 5.3) (Peres 2010; Vorosmarty et al. 2010;

Kura et al. 2004; Dulvy et al. 2003). Although overexploitation is
often difficult to quantify in terrestrial systems, major exploited
groups include plants for timber, food and medicine; mammals
for wild meat and recreational hunting; birds for food and the
pet trade; and amphibians for traditional medicine and food (Vi
et al. 2009). The threat to vertebrates from overexploitation is
particularly severe, driven, in particular, by demand for wildlife
and wildlife products from East Asia (Figure 5.3). Globally,
utilized vertebrate populations have declined by 15 per cent
since 1970 as indicated by the Living Planet Index (Butchart et
al. 2010). Similarly, the extinction risk of utilized bird species
increased during 19882008, driven in part by overexploitation
(Butchart et al. 2010).
Figure 5.4 Trends in the state of global fishery

stocks, 19502006
Status of stocks, %
100
90
80
70
60
50
In the marine realm, capture fisheries more than quadrupled

their catch from the early 1950s to the mid-1990s. Since
then, catches have stabilized or diminished (FAO 2010b),
despite increased fishing effort (Anticamara et al. 2011;
Swartz et al. 2010). The proportion of marine fish stocks that
are overexploited, depleted or recovering from depletion rose
from 10 per cent in 1974 to 32 per cent in 2008 (Figure 5.4)
(FAO 2010b; Worm et al. 2009). Of the 133 local, regional
and global extinctions of marine species documented
worldwide over the last 200 years, 55 per cent were caused by
overexploitation, while the remainder were driven by habitat
loss and other threats (Dulvy et al. 2003). Commercial fisheries
are the principal threat to fish stocks, but overexploitation
142
40
30
20
10
0
1950
1960
Rebuilding
Developing
1970
1980
Exploited
Overexploited
1990
2000 2006
Collapsed
Source: Kleisner and Pauly 2011
in artisanal fisheries also occurs (Garcia and Rozenberg

2010). Such practices can ultimately lead to major shifts in
community composition. For example, coral communities have
been transformed into algal-dominated systems because of
overfishing of herbivores (Mumby 2009).
The use of destructive fishing practices further amplifies the
impacts of unsustainable fishing on marine biodiversity and
habitats (FAO and UNEP 2009). Technology can enhance the
intensity and range of human impacts on marine biodiversity
although it can also play a significant role in making fishing
practices less destructive. Moreover, abandoned and lost
fishing gear is having negative ecological consequences on
marine biodiversity (also known as ghost fishing) (Brown and
Macfadyen 2007).
Overfishing is also a problem in freshwater wetlands, although
in many cases adequate data are not available to quantify the
extent of the loss (Kura et al. 2004). Recreational fishery practices
such as stocking and selective take can also have important
evolutionary impacts on freshwater fish stocks (Jorgensen et al.
2007). By-catch from fisheries can be a major threat to groups
such as sharks, turtles and albatrosses.
Invasive alien species
Invasive alien species threaten native biodiversity and
are spreading through both deliberate and unintentional
introductions as a consequence of increasing levels of global
travel and trade. Poorly planned economic introductions, air
transport, hull-fouling and ballast water from ships, as well
as trade in pets, garden plants and aquarium species, are
significant pathways for the dispersal of invasive species (Reise
et al. 2006; Bax et al. 2003). Invasive alien species affect native
species principally through predation, competition and habitat
modification (McGeoch et al. 2010; Vi et al. 2009; Strayer et al.
2006). Invasive species have major economic costs, estimated by
one study to total US$1.4 trillion annually (Pimentel et al. 2004).
They are found in nearly all countries and habitats, including
marine ecosystems for example the red lionfish Pterois volitans
affects coral reef fish in the Caribbean (Gonzlez et al. 2009)
and freshwater ecosystems: the Nile Perch Lates niloticus, for
instance, has an impact on native fish in Lake Victoria (Balirwa
et al. 2003). Invasive species have particularly acute effects
on the terrestrial biodiversity of small islands (McGeoch et al.
2010). Data from Europe show that the number of alien species
has increased by 76 per cent since 1970 (Butchart et al. 2010),
a pattern that is likely to be similar in other places. In another
study, invasive alien species were a factor in more than 50 per
cent of vertebrate extinctions where the cause was known, and
were the sole cause of 20 per cent of extinctions (Clavero and
Garca-Berthou 2005).
Climate change
Climate change is an increasingly important threat to species
and natural habitats. There is widespread evidence that
changes in phenology, including the timing of reproduction
and migration, physiology, behaviour, morphology, population
density and distributions of many different types of species are

driven by climate change (Rosenzweig et al. 2007). For example,
trends in European bird populations since 1990 show a growing
impact: populations are increasing among the species projected
to benefit from climate change while population decline is
documented for those projected to undergo range contraction
(Gregory et al. 2009). In the Arctic, tundra habitats are shrinking
owing to tree-line advance (Callaghan et al. 2005). In the marine
realm, climate change is causing widespread die-off of coral
reefs through rising temperatures and ocean acidification (Baker
et al. 2008; Carpenter et al. 2008; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).
The Arctic ice cap is also shrinking rapidly, with likely impacts
on ice-dependent species (McRae et al. 2010; IPCC 2007), as
well as shifts in phenology and distribution of marine species
(Dulvy et al. 2008; Hiddink and Ter Hofstede 2008; Richardson
2008; Perry et al. 2005). Recent studies have also projected
distribution shifts of 1066 marine fish and invertebrate species
polewards at an average rate of 40 km per decade (Cheung et al.
2009), leading to likely disruption of community composition
and local extinctions.
For many wetlands, changes in rainfall and evaporation are
expected to have major impacts on water regimes, affecting
both migratory and residential species (Finlayson et al. 2006),
while changes in flow in both the short and long term will
impact many aquatic species (Bates et al. 2008; Xenopoulos
and Lodge 2006). Climate change will also act synergistically
with other threats, such as the spread of diseases and invasive
alien species (Benning et al. 2002). However, in many instances
it may be difficult to differentiate the effects of these different
threats, as has been outlined for wetlands and rivers in
Australia (Finlayson et al. 2011).
Pollution
Pollutants such as pesticide and fertilizer effluents from
agriculture and forestry, industry including mining and oil or
gas extraction, sewage plants, run-off from urban and suburban
areas, and oil spills, harm biodiversity directly through
mortality and reduced reproductive success, and also indirectly
through habitat degradation (MA 2005a). Inland wetlands and
coastal marine habitats face a major threat from waterborne
pollutants (Chapter 6) (Finlayson and DCruz 2005). Meanwhile,
atmospheric pollution in terrestrial systems, particularly the
deposition of eutrophying and acidifying compounds such
as nitrogen and sulphur (Chapter 2), is also important. Rates
of nitrogen deposition increased sharply after 1940 but have
levelled out since 1990, probably owing to an overall decrease
in biomass burning, though there is regional variation (Butchart
et al. 2010). Nevertheless, nitrogen deposition continues to be a
significant threat to biodiversity, especially for species that have
adapted to low-nitrogen habitats (Dise et al. 2011).
Additional threats
Additional threats to biodiversity include changes in fire regimes,
problematic native species (Figure 5.1) and negative influences
from human activities. Influences from human activities that
may be harmful to biodiversity include artificial illumination,
Biodiversity
143
Box 5.4 The ecological footprint: an indicator of the pressures on biodiversity

The ecological footprint is a resource accounting tool that
measures how much biologically productive land and sea
area crop and grazing land, forests, fishing grounds and
built-up land is demanded by a given population or activity,
and compares this to how much land and sea is available
(Kitzes and Wackernagel 2009; Wackernagel et al. 2002;
Wackernagel and Rees 1996). It has become an increasingly
popular headline indicator of broad human pressures on
the environment, although its methodology and application
continue to be debated (Kitzes et al. 2009; Best et al. 2008;
Fiala 2008).
Ecological footprint analysis shows that the global demand for

biologically productive areas has approximately doubled since
the 1960s (WWF 2010). In 2007, global society demanded
more than 1.5 planets worth of productive biological capacity,
a deficit that can only be met through the depletion of stocks
of renewable resources or the accumulation of waste product,
most importantly carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
Together with other indicators (Butchart et al. 2010), this
trend provides evidence of an overall increase in pressures on
biodiversity. The continued growth of these pressures is likely
to increase the difficulty of halting or reversing global loss.
Figure 5.5 The ecological footprint, 19612007

Number of planets
1.6
Global ecological footprint
1.4
1.2
1.0
World biocapacity
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1961
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2007
Source: WWF 2010
genetically modified organisms (Box 5.5), microplastics,

nanotechnology, geo-engineering, and high levels of human
appropriation of net primary productivity (Cole 2011; Gough
2011; Galgani et al. 2010; Hlker et al. 2010; Sutherland et al.
2009, 2008). Scientific understanding of the specific nature
of threats to biodiversity from these influences is building.
Meanwhile, the causes of some recent biodiversity declines
remain unclear, and further research is required to elucidate
the problems and identify solutions, for example for mammals
in northern Australia (Woinarski et al. 2011) or trans-Saharan
migrant birds (Moeller et al. 2008).
Patterns of biodiversity change
Biodiversity is deteriorating at the level of populations,

species and ecosystems, and genetic diversity is also
suspected to be declining, although trends remain largely
144
unknown (Box 5.3) (Butchart et al. 2010; CBD 2010b; Vi et al.

2009). Populations of vertebrate species recorded in the Living
Planet Index have declined on average by 30 per cent since
1970 (Figure 5.6) (Loh 2010; Collen et al. 2008a). Declines
in freshwater populations are steeper, at 35 per cent since
1970, than those for terrestrial populations, which have fallen
by 25 per cent and marine populations by 24 per cent; those
in the tropics are steeper than those in temperate latitudes.
Habitat-specific trends are available for some regions for
birds and show, for example, that European farmland bird
populations have declined by 48 per cent on average since
1980 (Gregory et al. 2005). North American grassland and
dryland species have declined by 28 per cent and 27 per cent
respectively since 1968; but North American wetland bird
species have increased by 40 per cent (Butchart et al. 2010;
NABCI US Committee 2009).
At the species level, the proportion of species threatened with

extinction classified as critically endangered, endangered or
vulnerable on the IUCN Red List ranges from 13 per cent for
birds to 63 per cent for cycads, and averaging almost 20 per
cent for vertebrates (Baillie et al. 2010; Hoffmann et al. 2010).
Furthermore, Red List Indices for mammals, birds, amphibians
and corals show that considerably more species have become
more threatened with extinction over recent decades than
have become less threatened, and declines have been
steepest for corals (Figure 5.7) (Butchart et al. 2010; Hoffmann
et al. 2010). The composition of biological communities is
increasingly disrupted by human activities, in particular through
overexploitation. For example, in some oceans the community
structure appears to have shifted to lower trophic levels owing
to fisheries targeting predators and larger fish species (Branch et
al. 2010; Pauly and Watson 2005). This phenomenon of fishing
down the food web has been reported widely in many parts of
the ocean, such as in Canada (Pauly et al. 1998), Brazil (Freire
and Pauly 2010), India (Bhathal and Pauly 2008), Thailand (Pauly
and Chuenpagdee 2003), the North Sea (Heath 2005) and the
Caribbean (Wing and Wing 2001). However, the use of catch data
to indicate fishing down the food web may be confounded by
data quality and factors such as the spatial expansion of fisheries
(Swartz et al. 2010), and may need careful interpretation if
independent data on stock levels are unavailable (Branch et al.
2011). Other indicators, such as the Fishing-In-Balance (FIB)
index, may be preferable in future (Kleisner and Pauly 2010;
Bhathal and Pauly 2008).
At the level of habitats, losses include more than 100 million
hectares of forest globally during 20002005, or 3 per cent of the
3.2 billion hectares in existence in 2000 (Hansen et al. 2010);
Figure 5.6 Living Planet Index, 19702007

Index 1970=1.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.2
The Living Planet Index is based on the change in

size of 7953 populations of 2544 species of
birds, mammals, amphibians, reptiles and fish,
relative to 1970, from around the globe.
0
1970
1980
1990
Index: 1 = of least concern; 0 = extinct

1.00
0.95
Corals
Birds
0.90
Mammals
0.85
0.80
0.75
1980
Amphibians
1990
2000
2010
Note: Shaded areas show 95 per cent confidence intervals. The numbers of data-sucient
extant species in year of first assessment were: 9 785 birds, 4 555 mammals, 4 416
amphibians and 704 corals (warm water reef-building species only).
Source: Adapted from Vi et al. 2009
20 per cent of mangroves since 1980; and 20 per cent of

seagrasses since 1970 (Butchart et al. 2010; Waycott et
al. 2009). Remaining habitats are increasingly degraded
measures of net primary productivity, for example, show that
around one-quarter of the terrestrial land area is degraded,
including around 30 per cent of all forests, 20 per cent of
cultivated zones and 10 per cent of grasslands (Bai et al.
2008). Similarly, coral reefs have declined globally by 38 per
cent since 1980 (Butchart et al. 2010; Spalding et al. 2003).
Natural habitats are also becoming increasingly fragmented
80 per cent of remaining forest fragments in the Brazilian
Atlantic Forest are now smaller than 50 hectares (Ribeiro et al.
2009), while two-thirds of the worlds largest rivers are now
moderately to severely fragmented by dams and reservoirs
(Nilsson et al. 2005).
CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
Benefits to people from biodiversity
Living Planet Index
0.8
0.4
Figure 5.7 Red List Indices of species survival for all

species of birds, mammals, amphibians and corals,
19802010
2000
2007
Source: WWF 2010
Biodiversity underpins the ecosystem services that supply

benefits to people (UNEP 2007; MA 2005a). The deterioration
or loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services tends to affect
poor people most directly as they are the most dependent
on local ecosystems and often live in places that are most
vulnerable to ecosystem change (UNEP 2007). Because the
precise mechanisms of human dependence on biodiversity are
not fully understood and biodiversity is undervalued especially
for regulating services maintenance of biodiversity is rarely
fully integrated into policy. Progress has been made since the
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (TEEB 2010; MA 2005a),
which strongly supported the concept of ecosystem services
Biodiversity
145
Figure 5.8 Relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
CONSTITUENTS OF WELL-BEING
PROVISIONING
SECURITY
Food
Freshwater
Wood and bre
Fuel
...
Personal safety
Secure resource access
Security from disasters
BASIC MATERIAL FOR GOOD LIFE
SUPPORTING
REGULATING
Nutrient cycling
Soil formation
Primary production
...
Climate regulation
Flood regulation
Disease regulation
Water purication
...
HEALTH
CULTURAL
Strength
Feeling well
Access to clean air and water
Aesthetic
Spiritual
Educational
Recreational
...
GOOD SOCIAL RELATIONS
LIFE ON EARTHBIODIVERSITY
ARROWS COLOUR
Potential for mediation by
socio-economic factors
Adequate livelihoods
Sucient nutritious food
Shelter
Access to goods
Low
Medium
High
Freedom of
choice and
action
Opportunity to
be able to
achieve what
an individual
values doing
and being
Social cohesion
Mutual respect
Ability to help others
ARROWS WIDTH
Intensity of linkages between
ecosystem services and human
well-being
Weak
Medium
Strong
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal
and their role in providing supporting, provisioning, regulating

and cultural services (Figure 5.8). More recently, The Economics
of Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity (TEEB 2010) and green
economy approaches have quantified the value of biodiversity
and ecosystem services (UNEP 2011). The Ramsar Convention on
Wetlands has further outlined the direct links that exist between
ecosystem services from wetlands and human health (Horwitz
and Finlayson 2011; Horwitz et al. 2011).
Biodiversity and human well-being
Biodiversity and ecosystem services provide food, medicines,
fish and timber products as well as biomass, energy and waterrelated services that people need for their livelihoods and wellbeing. Too often, the use and management of these provisioning
services has failed to focus on conserving the ecosystems
providing them. This has resulted in the degradation of regulating
and supporting services that are important for overall system
functioning and long-term resilience to change and therefore
146
to human well-being, a point that has been well demonstrated

when considering the effects of expanding agriculture and water
management (Gordon et al. 2010; Falkenmark et al. 2007).
Decreases in provisioning services may be a definitive signal that
a biophysical threshold has already been passed with respect
to an ecosystems ability to provide a service, as in the case of a
number of fishery collapses (Westley et al. 2011).
Food and medicines produced from terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems include wild-harvested products, as well as farmed
crops, livestock, fish and aquaculture products. Wild-harvested
foods, such as wild meat, non-timber forest products, wild fruits
and freshwater resources, remain important for food security,
health, cultural identity and adaptation for many people (Golden
et al. 2011; Nasi et al. 2008; Robinson and Bennett 2000).
Likewise, in some Asian and African countries, up to 80 per
cent of the population depend on traditional medicines (WHO
2003). Assessment of the status of birds and mammals used
Figure 5.9 Red List Indices of species survival for birds

and mammals used for food and medicine, 19882008
Index: 1 = of least concern; 0 = extinct
Index:
0.95 1 = of least concern; 0 = extinct
0.95
0.90
0.90
0.85
0.85
0.80
0.80
0.75
0.75
1980
1980
Birds
BirdsUsed
1988
1988
Used
Not used
Not used
1994
1994
1996
1996
2000
2004
2008
2000
2004
2008
Utilized species have lower
Mammals
values,species
indicating
greater
Utilized
have
lower
Mammals
Used
extinction
risk than
species not
values,
indicating
greater
Used
Not used extinction
used for food
and medicine.
risk than
species not
Not used used for food and medicine.
Source: IUCN 2010
Source: IUCN 2010
for these purposes indicates that they are on average facing a

greater extinction risk than other species (Figures 5.9 and 5.10).
Although global data for plants are not available, medicinal
plants face a high risk of extinction in those parts of the world
where people are most dependent on them. This emphasizes the
threat posed by biodiversity loss to the health and well-being of
people directly dependent on the availability of wild species.
Fisheries provide a major source of food, revenues and
employment with globally over 80 million tonnes of biomass
being captured annually from the ocean (Sumaila et al. 2010) and
large amounts from inland waters (Kura et al. 2004). However,
as fish stocks are depleted, this supply is becoming increasingly
dependent on aquaculture, which itself can have many negative
environmental and social impacts such as pollution, introduction
of exotic species and displacement of small-scale fishing
practices (Barnhizer 2001; Naylor et al. 2000; Emerson 1999).
Recent estimates suggest that in 2000 alone, the potential global
catch losses due to overfishing amounted to 736 per cent of
the actual tonnage landed that year, resulting in a landed value
loss of US$6.436.0 billion. This amount could have helped
prevent around 20 million people worldwide suffering from
undernourishment (Srinivasan et al. 2010).
Agricultural production is also supported by biodiversity and
ecosystem services (Altieri 1999), and agricultural diversity can
in turn contribute to food security by supporting adaptation to a
changing climate (Thrupp 2000). Small-scale livestock husbandry
Figure 5.10 Distribution and conservation status of medicinal plant species assessed for the IUCN Red List, by
region, 2009
Medicinal plant species assessed, %
100
Medicinal
plant species assessed, %
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
Australasia
18 species
Australasia
18 species
Extinct
Extinct
Europe
74Europe
species
74 species
North
America
North
137
species
America
137 species
Asia
Asia
temperate
tropical
Asia
Asia
109
species
122
species
temperate
tropical
109 species
122 species
Threatened
Threatened
Pacific
35Pacific
species
35 species
South
America
South
115
species
America
115 species
Africa
158Africa
species
158 species
Not threatened
Not threatened
Source: TRAFFIC and IUCN SSC Medicinal Plants Specialist Group 2009
Source: TRAFFIC and IUCN SSC Medicinal Plants Specialist Group 2009
Biodiversity
147
Large-scale dams and their associated reservoirs affect biodiversity by displacing species and restricting their movement up and down rivers.
Nikola Miljkovic/iStock
and pastoralism can both contribute to maintaining biodiversity

and to sustainable local economies, adaptation to climate
change, resistance to disease and cultural diversity (FAO 2009).
Equally, overgrazing can cause soil erosion and desertification,
thereby decreasing provisioning services. Threats from livestock
production to biodiversity are likely to grow as demand for
meat and dairy increases, requiring more livestock feed and
more water (Thornton 2010). The complex issue of ensuring a
sustainable food supply for an expanding human population has
been addressed in recent assessments (IAASTD 2009; Molden
2007), along with the biodiversity benefits that can be obtained
by balancing food production with the supply of other ecosystem
services. Pressures on land, water and biodiversity from
agriculture and aquaculture could be reduced in some countries
by reducing overconsumption of food, shifting towards diets
comprising less meat/fish, and reducing crop losses and food
waste (Godfray et al. 2010; WHO 2005).
Energy for much of the worlds population is derived from
biomass. The most commonly used fuels for heating and cooking
are wood, charcoal and plant and animal waste (Berndes et
al. 2003). Hydropower depends on high volumes and regular
rates of flow of water to dams from functioning ecosystems
in the catchment area, but often contributes to widespread
negative environmental and social impacts, particularly loss of
biodiversity and displacement (WHO 2009; Greathouse et al.
2006; Ligon et al. 1995). The degradation or loss of ecosystem
services that provide energy is evident in the siltation of
reservoirs and loss of water volume associated with deteriorating
catchment areas (Nilsson et al. 2005); in the deforestation
148
created by the overharvesting of woody vegetation; and in the

overuse of agricultural waste and animal manure. The loss
of ecosystem services associated with overharvesting, poor
management, climate change and, for example, an increase in
forest fires, is often felt by already marginalized groups who have
to collect fuelwood and/or other forms of biomass for household
energy needs (CBD 2010b). The development of renewable
energy from marine and coastal environments, such as that from
offshore wind farms, may result in trade-offs between energy
production and habitat loss.
Freshwater from surface and groundwater ecosystems is a critical
provisioning service used for drinking, sanitation, cooking and
agriculture (Chapter 4). Wetlands and rivers regulate flows and
material cycles that play indispensible roles in supporting human
life systems and benefiting many sectors of society (Arthurton et
al. 2007; Falkenmark et al. 2007; Finlayson and DCruz 2005).
These ecosystems also provide important regulatory services in
the form of water purification, erosion control and storm buffering
(Morris et al. 2003). Meanwhile, groundwater ecosystems provide
great social and economic benefits through the provision of
low-cost, high-quality water supplies for both urban and rural
areas (Bjorklund et al. 2009). Groundwater is also important for
irrigation, with Siebert et al. (2010) reporting that 40 per cent of
irrigated areas, some 300 million hectares representing about
20 per cent of total farmland, are supplied by groundwater.
Cultural and spiritual values from biodiversity are important to
many communities (Posey 1999). Many have benefited from
exploiting the recreational and cultural value of biodiversity
for ecotourism (Ehrlich and Ehrlich 1992). For example, lakes,

wetlands, rivers and coastal ecosystems offer significant
ecotourism potential with, for example, coral reef tourism in
Belize estimated to be worth US$150196 million per year
(Cooper et al. 2009). These aquatic ecosystems also supply water
that is integral to many social, spiritual and religious activities.
Examples include the sacred status of water sources and riparian
zones for the Bantu-speaking peoples of Southern Africa (Bernard
2003) and the duty of care exercised by Maori in New Zealand for
the life force exhibited by water (Williams 2006).
The wildlife and timber trade, comprising the sale or exchange
of wild animal and plant resources, is prevalent within national
borders. However, significant volumes can also be traded
internationally, for example highly prized products such as caviar
and medicines. The primary motivating factor for wildlife traders
is financial, ranging from small-scale local income generation
to major profit-oriented business, such as marine fisheries and
logging companies. In some cases, harvest and trade of species
can provide a significant proportion of local or national income.
Overall, the legal trade in wildlife including live animals, animal
products for clothing and food, ornamental and medicinal
plants, fish and timber was estimated at over US$300 billion in
2009 (TRAFFIC in prep.; Roe 2008). Furthermore, illegal trade is
believed to be substantial, possibly worth US$10 billion (Haken
2011). Timber and seafood are the most important categories of
international wildlife trade in terms of both volume and value:
around 90 million tonnes of fish were captured in 2008 with trade
valued at more than US$100 billion (FAO 2010b), while the trade
in primary wood products in 2009 was valued at US$189 billion
(FAO 2010a).
forests are more biologically diverse, and also more carbon

dense, than other forest ecosystems. Modified natural forests
and plantations have less biodiversity and lower carbon stocks
than primary forests under similar environmental conditions
(CBD 2009a). Efforts to maintain forest health, for example
through incentive mechanisms such as Reducing Emissions
from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), have the
potential to help mitigate climate change. These can also have
multiple benefits for biodiversity if interventions ensure that
environmental and social safeguards are respected, such as full
and effective participation of indigenous and local communities
(Cotula and Mathieu 2008), and if they avoid displacing
deforestation and degradation from areas of lower conservation
value to those of higher biodiversity value, or exerting pressures
on other native ecosystems.
Many of the options available to help society adapt to the
effects of climate change depend on and are enhanced by
biodiversity. Ecosystem-based adaptation uses the range of
opportunities for the sustainable management, conservation
and restoration of ecosystems to provide services that enable
people to adapt to the impacts of climate change. For example,
intact, well-functioning ecosystems, with natural levels of species
diversity, are usually more able to continue to provide ecosystem
services, and resist and recover more readily from extreme
Biodiversity and climate change

Biodiversity plays an important role both in supporting efforts to
mitigate climate change and in enabling societal adaptation to its
effects. Ecosystems store and sequester carbon through biological
and biophysical processes that are underpinned by biodiversity.
About 2500 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of carbon are stored in
terrestrial ecosystems, compared to approximately 750 gigatonnes
in the atmosphere (Chapter 3) (Ravindranath and Oswald 2008).
Almost 38 000 gigatonnes are stored in the oceans, of which about
37000 gigatonnes are in deep ocean layers that will only feed
back to atmospheric processes over very long time scales (Sabine
et al. 2004). Around 1150 gigatonnes are stored in forests, with
3040 per cent in biomass and 6070 per cent in soil. Significant
carbon stocks are also found in other terrestrial ecosystems
including wetlands and peatlands. Indeed, the latter cover only
3 per cent of the land area, but reputedly contain nearly 30 per cent
of all global soil carbon (Parish et al. 2008). Marine ecosystems
on average take up an additional 2.2 gigatonnes of carbon per
year (Le Qur et al. 2009; Canadell et al. 2007). The critical role
of freshwaters in the global carbon cycle has only recently been
demonstrated (Battin et al. 2009; Cole et al. 2007).
The importance of forests in storing almost half of all terrestrial
carbon, and sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, means
that they play a major role in climate change mitigation. Primary
The tropical forests of Panama, which contain some 1 569 known

species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles, are also a
valuable carbon sink. Jason Jabbour
Biodiversity
149
weather events than degraded, impoverished ones (CBD 2009a).

Healthy ecosystems also play an important role in protecting
infrastructure and enhancing human security, and therefore in
reducing the risk from disasters (ISDR 2009). Ecosystem-based
adaptation options are often more accessible to the rural poor
than interventions based on infrastructure and engineering, and
there can be multiple social, economic and environmental cobenefits for local communities from its use when designed and
managed appropriately.
Responses to the threats to biodiversity
Managing agriculture and biodiversity

Successful management of agricultural landscapes requires
a reduction of habitat loss and degradation whilst providing
an adequate supply of food for a growing human population.
Sustainable agriculture has received increasing attention
because expanding agriculture is globally the principal driver
of biodiversity decline (Brussaard et al. 2010; IAASTD 2009;
MA 2005b). In recent years attention has been given to a
new paradigm of ecoagriculture or integrated conservationagriculture, which seeks to integrate biodiversity conservation
with rural development. This paradigm is being explicitly
considered in shaping conservation strategies with clearly
identified economic and ecological relationships that include
ecosystem services (IAASTD 2009; Scherr and McNeely 2008).
The extensification of agriculture may require more land than
intensive agriculture to achieve the same production levels

(Godfray et al. 2010; Phalan et al. 2011), but it may be more
sustainable in the long term and have fewer impacts on wildlife
and human health (Perfecto and Vandermeer 2010). New
approaches that combine the most effective, least harmful
practices from intensive and extensive farming, sometimes
termed sustainable intensification, will be needed (Royal Society
2009). In this context the use of GMOs in agriculture and also in
aquaculture potentially presents both threats and opportunities
for biodiversity (Box 5.5).
Managing invasive species
Successful management of invasive species relies on preventing
the introduction and spread of species to new areas, as well
as controlling and eradicating established invaders. Ten
different international agreements and organizations have
some relevance, including the International Plant Protection
Convention, the World Trade Organization, the International
Maritime Organization, the Convention on International Civil
Aviation and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Since 1970
there has been a significant increase in the number of parties to
these agreements (Figure 5.11), with 81 per cent of the worlds
countries acceding to them (McGeoch et al. 2010). Although this
signifies an international intent to manage biological invasions,
no international agreement currently deals exclusively with the
trade, transport or control of alien and invasive species (Stoett
Box 5.5 Genetic modification

Genetic modification (GM) remains controversial, both
a potential threat and an opportunity for biodiversity
conservation, depending on the context. The technology is
widely used in pharmaceuticals and crop production, but
many consider it an unwarranted risk to the environment and
human health. A genetically modified organism (GMO) is
defined by the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety as any living
organism that possesses a novel combination of genetic
material obtained through the use of modern biotechnology
(CBD 2000); generally by the transfer of genetic material from
one species to another. The vast proportion of GM crops has
been modified to be tolerant of broad-spectrum herbicides
to allow more efficient weed control and/or to express a toxin
(Bt) that acts against the caterpillars of butterflies and moths
that live and feed inside the crop plants.
Genetically modified crops were first planted commercially
in 1996, and by 2010 they covered 148 million hectares.
Although the largest areas were in the United States, Canada,
Brazil, China and Argentina, the greatest number of adopters
14.4 million out of an estimated total of 15.4 million were
small farmers in developing countries (James 2010).
Genetic modification technologies are being developed to
control malaria, both by making wild mosquito populations
150
less capable of carrying the malaria parasite (malERA 2011;

Sinkins and Gould 2006) and by reducing mosquito numbers
through introducing sterility, replacing the use of radiation
(Bax and Thresher 2009).
Several environmental risks from GMOs have been identified,
including the loss of genetic diversity of agricultural species
and their wild relatives through gene flow, although this
also occurs with non-GM crops (Pieyro-Nelson et al. 2009).
Another concern is the effects on organisms that are not
the target of the GM trait, although Bt crops have few toxic
effects on non-target species as the Bt toxins produced are
highly specific and only expressed in the plant itself. Further,
the effects tend to be outweighed by overall increases in
invertebrate numbers because of lower levels of pesticide use
(Marvier et al. 2007). Lower pesticide use also has benefits for
human health in some areas (Raybould and Quemada 2010).
In contrast, GM crops tolerant of broad-spectrum herbicides
such as glyphosate often result in fewer weeds than
conventional crops, and therefore make less food available
to farmland birds (Gibbons et al. 2006). In addition, species
are evolving resistance to both glyphosate and Bt (Powles
2010; Liu et al. 2010). These latter outcomes are examples
that raise concern over the complexities of the environmental
implications of GMOs.
Figure 5.11 Commitments to manage alien invasive

species, 19702010
Countries with policies, %
100
90
80
70
International
60
50
40
National
30
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: McGeoch et al. 2010
2010). At a national level, only 55 per cent of countries have

legislation to prevent the introduction of new ones and to control
existing ones, and less than 20 per cent are estimated to have
comprehensive strategies and management plans. In many
cases, information on existing management activities either does
not exist or is not readily available (Stoett 2010).
Managing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity

through mitigation and adaptation
Managing the impacts of climate change will be important, as
recent studies show that the range shifts of terrestrial organisms
towards the poles and higher altitudes as a result of climate
change may be significantly faster than previously thought
(Tewksbury et al. 2011). Minimizing the adverse impacts of
climate change on biodiversity is dependent on:
efforts to mitigate climate change itself (Chapter 3);
measures to ensure that those activities and societal
adaptation efforts do not themselves have adverse impacts
on biodiversity; and
application of best practice in conserving and restoring
biodiversity in the face of climatic change.
Of the wide range of approaches, many are dependent on the
conservation and sustainable use of healthy ecosystems, and
offer opportunities for synergies in terms of climate change
mitigation and maintenance of biodiversity. In particular, this
concerns intact forests and wetlands, but also natural and
semi-natural grasslands and many agricultural ecosystems. For
example, some agricultural approaches, such as conservation
tillage and agroforestry, can result in the maintenance and
enhancement of terrestrial carbon stocks and also contribute
to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity (CBD
2009a). Traditional knowledge and systems of small-scale
livestock husbandry, farming, and forest product collection
can greatly enable local mitigation and adaptation in culturally
appropriate ways (RECOFTC 2010; IUCN 2008). However,
ecosystem-based approaches also carry risks and these need
To control threats from invasive alien species, the following

actions are seen as necessary:
integrated planning to prevent further introductions by
managing priority pathways;
focus on controlling established species and priority invaders
with significant impacts on biodiversity (Hulme 2009); and
investment in the knowledge generation, data collation and
research needed for risk assessments (McGeoch et al. 2010).
Managing wildlife trade and use
Wildlife use and trade can be managed through a variety of
measures, including regulatory measures such as policies and
laws and voluntary ones such as certification schemes; formal
measures such as positive and economic incentives, and informal
ones such as influencing sustainable consumer behaviour; direct
measures such as customs inspections and other enforcement
actions, and indirect ones such as economic influences. These
measures can be applied at a variety of levels from the local, such
as delineating resource extraction zones in protected areas or
establishing community-based natural resource management, to
the global, such as through the Convention on International Trade
in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) (Roe 2008).
The rehabilitation of wetlands is an important tool for restoring

biodiversity and building resilience to the impacts of climate change.
J. Smith/Still Pictures
Biodiversity
151
of intact and functioning ecosystems supported by restoration

initiatives wherever possible (CBD 2009a).
Managing area-based conservation
Protected areas are seen by many as the core means of preventing
ongoing losses of species and habitats. Protected areas have
expanded over the past 20 years in both number and area (Figures
5.12 and 5.13) and now cover 13 per cent of the worlds land
area (IUCN and UNEP-WCMC 2011). However, coverage is uneven,
and 6 of the 14 global biomes and half of the 821 terrestrial
ecoregions do not meet the CBD target for 10 per cent of their area
to be protected by 2010 (Jenkins and Joppa 2009). Furthermore,
the expansion of the worlds protected area network needs to be
targeted at the most important sites for biodiversity. Some 51 per
cent of the 587 sites identified by the Alliance for Zero Extinction
as critical for the survival of hundreds of highly threatened
species, and 49 per cent of the more than 10000 important
bird areas are still entirely outside the protected area network
(Butchart et al. 2012). Even more importantly, the performance of
protected areas in maintaining populations of their key species is
poorly documented. Although some studies have found wildlife
declines within some protected areas (Woinarski et al. 2011;
Craigie et al. 2010), others demonstrate that protected areas have
been effective in maintaining species that would otherwise have
disappeared (Bruner et al. 2001). However, not all species may
require protected areas to ensure their survival (Pereira and Daly
2006), and protected areas require complementary broad-scale
conservation measures (Boyd et al. 2008).
Considerable efforts have been made over the past decade to promote
marine protected areas in Eastern Africa. J Tamelander/IUCN
to be assessed and addressed. In the case of forests, the

(UNFCCC 1992) and CBD have recognized a need for safeguards,
particularly for biodiversity and human communities, to minimize
risks associated with REDD+. There is also a risk of conflict
between the goals of the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development
Mechanism for carbon sequestration and biodiversity
conservation (Heiskanen 2009; Kneteman and Green 2009).
Other concerns about the impacts of mitigation activities
include those related to artificial ocean fertilization through
using nutrients such as iron or nitrogen to increase the uptake
and sequestration of atmospheric carbon. The effectiveness
of this approach is highly uncertain and increasingly thought
to be quite limited. Potential negative environmental effects
include increased production of methane and nitrous oxide and
changes in phytoplankton community composition, which may
lead to toxic algal blooms (CBD 2009b). Alternative sources of
energy production, such as biofuels, hydropower, wind farms
and oceanic tide generators have all been documented to have
impacts on biodiversity if safeguards are not developed (Keder
and McIntyre Galt 2009; McDonald et al. 2009). The most
fundamental strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of
climate change will continue to be promoting the conservation
152
Uneven protected area coverage of biomes is most evident in

the marine realm, despite a CBD target to protect 10 per cent
of the ocean by 2012. By the end of 2010 marine protected
Figure 5.12 Extent of nationally designated

protected areas, 19902010
Area protected, % of total
14
12
Terrestrial
10
8
6
4
Marine
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: IUCN and UNEP-WCMC 2011
areas covered 1.6 per cent of the ocean area (IUCN and UNEPWCMC 2011). Indeed, at the end of 2010, only 12 countries had
designated more than 10 per cent of their waters, often through
large areas, while 121 countries had yet to designate more than
0.5 per cent of their marine jurisdiction (Toropova et al. 2010). In
response, the CBD has retained the 10 per cent target, with
a revised achievement date of 2020.
Marine protected areas can be designated at a variety of levels
of protection, but those with complete protection provide the
greatest biodiversity benefits. A review of 112 independent
studies in 80 different protected areas found significantly higher
fish populations inside the reserves than in surrounding areas
or in the same place before protection was established. Relative
to reference sites, population densities were 91 per cent higher,
biomass 192 per cent higher and average organism size and
diversity 2030 per cent higher, usually between one and three
years after establishment of a reserve. These trends occurred
even in small marine protected areas (Halpern 2003).
Protected areas can also play a key role in climate change
mitigation and adaptation, preventing the conversion of natural
habitats to other land uses and hence avoiding significant
release of carbon (Dudley et al. 2010b). Emissions from landuse change, mainly forest loss, contribute up to 17 per cent of all
anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). It has been
estimated that about 15 per cent of the global terrestrial carbon
stock is stored in the worlds protected area network (Campbell
et al. 2008), and the role that this can play in climate mitigation
is underlined by the fact that between 2000 and 2005, protected

areas in humid tropical forests lost about half as much carbon as
the same area of unprotected forest (Scharlemann et al. 2010).
Indigenous and community-conserved areas
Protected areas can be effectively managed by many groups,
from government agencies to local communities and indigenous
peoples, and from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to
private individuals. Recently, the full range of IUCN protected
area categories has been brought into use for designating
protected areas (Dudley et al. 2010a). For example, in Australia,
protected areas established and managed by indigenous
communities comprise nearly a quarter of Australias national
reserve system by area. Indigenous and community-conserved
areas (ICCAs) and sacred natural sites (SNSs) have proven
successful in conserving a rich biological and biocultural
diversity by supporting the maintenance of traditional
environmental knowledge and practices (Porter-Bolland et al.
2012; Sobrevila 2008). These community areas are extremely
diverse, manifesting myriad ethical, economic, cultural,
spiritual and political dimensions (Brown and Kothari 2011;
Borrini-Feyerabend et al. 2010a, 2010b; Kothari 2006; Posey
1999). They include waterfowl nesting wetlands, roosting
sites or other critical wild animal habitats, and landscapes
with mosaics of natural and agricultural ecosystems such as
the Potato Park in the Andean Highlands of Peru and the rice
terraces of the Philippines. A number of studies demonstrate
the wide range of values they provide (Box 5.6) (Mallarach et al.
2012; Verschuuren et al. 2010; ICCA 2009).
Figure 5.13 Proportion of each terrestrial ecoregion covered by protected areas, 2011
Palearctic
Nearctic
Protected area coverage

Less than 10%
1030%
3050%
More than 50%
Oceania
Indo-Malay
Afrotropic
Neotropic
Australasia
Antarctic
Source: IUCN and UNEP-WCMC 2011
Biodiversity
153
The number and extent of ICCAs and SNSs have not been
comprehensively estimated. It has been, nevertheless,
suggested that in some parts of the world their area is similar
to that currently under government-managed protection (Box
5.6) (Molnar et al. 2004). Furthermore, it has been estimated
that communities own or manage 22 per cent of all forests
in 18 developing countries (White and Martin 2002). Recent
analyses highlight the potential effectiveness of indigenous and
community-managed areas in tropical forest conservation. For
example, such areas can be more effective in reducing tropical
deforestation than forest protected areas (Porter-Bolland et al.
2012), and indigenous and multiple-use protected areas can
reduce the incidence of tropical forest fires as effectively as strict
protection (Nelson and Chomitz 2011).
ICCAs and SNSs are increasingly recognized as legitimate and
powerful tools for the security of both their custodians and
the biodiversity they encompass, supported by a range of
conservation, human-rights and development instruments.
A preliminary survey of the laws and policies of 27 countries
and one sub-national region showed that progress in national
recognition of ICCAs and SNSs is patchy: some countries are
moving rapidly, others slowly, and some not at all (Kothari et al.
2010). The biggest challenge, now that ICCAs and SNSs have
global attention, is in gaining appropriate national recognition
and support, particularly for tenure, customary practices and
decision-making institutions, and other fundamental human
rights (Stevens 2010). Activities relating to governance,
participation, equity and benefit sharing in relation to protected
areas merit increasing consideration.
Recognizing the value of cultural diversity and traditional

knowledge
The recognition of human and natural systems as unified socialecological systems is increasingly important for safeguarding
biodiversity (Ostrom 2007). This growing understanding
underscores the links between biological and cultural diversity
and the role of local and indigenous peoples in the sustainable
governance and management of biodiversity (Sutherland
2003; Moore et al. 2002). The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity
and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets support greater respect of
traditional knowledge and its full integration and reflection in
CBD implementation at all levels, with the full and effective
participation of indigenous and local communities (Aichi Target
18, Box 5.1). Information on the status and trends of linguistic
diversity (Figure 5.14) has been used as a proxy indicator for
traditional knowledge, innovations and practices, including those
about biodiversity. Traditional knowledge is an invaluable and
irreplaceable source of information about biodiversity and human
relationships; its loss entails a loss of collective cultural heritage
and capacity to adapt to and live sustainably within specific
ecosystems and areas (Maffi and Woodley 2010; Swiderska 2009).
Access and benefit sharing of genetic resources and
associated traditional knowledge
The fair and equitable sharing of the benefits of exploiting genetic
resources is one of the three CBD objectives (Article 1), recognized
as critical for biodiversity conservation. Through the recently
adopted Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the
Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilization,
standards are established for regulating access to genetic resources
Box 5.6 Examples of community management

Globally:
Community-controlled or managed forests total some
400800 million hectares (Molnar et al. 2004; White et al. 2004).
Africa:
Forty-seven of the approximately 70 Kaya forests, totalling
about 6000 hectares, have been legally recognized in Kenya
and are being cared for in collaboration with local communities
(Githitho 2003). In the Republic of Tanzania, a total area in
excess of 2 million hectares is under community-based forest
management (Blomley and Iddi 2009).
Europe:
In a small country like Estonia, there are estimated to be more
than 7000 sacred natural sites, although less than 500 are
legally protected (Valk and Kaasik 2007).
Americas:
A fifth of the Amazon is classed as indigenous territory helping
to achieve biodiversity conservation (Oviedo 2006), and
more than 800000 hectares of boreal forest and wetlands
154
have been declared protected traditional territory in Canada

(Government of Manitoba 2011).
Asia:
Several thousand natural ecosystem sites, ranging from a
hectare to several hundred square kilometres, are under
community conservation in South Asia (Kalpavriksh 2011;
Jana and Paudel 2010; Pathak 2009). At least 13720 sacred
groves have been reported in India and experts estimate
the total number for the country at 100000150000
(Malhotra et al. 2001). Across South East Asia and Japan,
there are hundreds of community-managed marine areas
oriented towards sustainable fisheries and coastal/marine
ecosystem conservation (Yagi et al. 2010; Ferrari 2006;
Lavides et al. 2006).
Oceania:
Forty indigenous protected areas cover more than 23
million hectares (DSEWPC 2011), and there are hundreds of
community-conserved areas and locally managed marine areas
in the South Pacific (Govan et al. 2009).
A Kenyan fisherman sets out in a traditional wooden boat to fish beyond the coral reef almost a kilometre offshore.
Cheryl-Samantha Owen/ samowenphotography.com
and the distribution of benefits from their use, as well as the

associated traditional knowledge. The principle underlying CBD
Figure 5.14 Language endangerment as a share of

all languages, 2010
Extinct since 1950

3.3%
Critically endangered
8.4%
Endangered
17%
62.6%
8.7%
Vulnerable
Non-threatened
or data deficient
Source: Moseley 2010
recognizes that states have a sovereign right to exploit their own

resources pursuant to their own environmental policies (Article 3).
Access to genetic resources has emerged as a major political
rallying point in international negotiations. Much of the worlds
biodiversity is concentrated in the forests of developing
countries in the tropics, but much of the technology and
financial capital that can convert elements of biodiversity into
commercial products rests with the developed countries. Hence,
while unprecedented biodiversity loss is a global concern,
commercial use and the associated issues of intellectual property
fundamentally alter the nature of biodiversity as a global public
good (Giraud 2008; Gupta 2006; Schuler 2004). The impetus
behind the Nagoya Protocol arose from growing discontent
amongst developing countries and indigenous and local
communities regarding the lack of implementation of the benefitsharing provisions of CBD since it came into force in 1993. This
was compounded by only a handful of user countries undertaking
any compliance measures to prevent bio-piracy despite the
adoption of guidelines in 2002.
The Nagoya Protocol is an important milestone for rectifying the
issues of equity associated with the commercial use of genetic
resources and associated traditional knowledge. The protocol is
also unprecedented in its recognition of the right of indigenous
and local communities to regulate access to traditional
knowledge associated with genetic resources in accordance
with their customary laws and procedures. The protocol opened
for signature in February 2011 and will not enter into force until
90 days after 50 countries have signed. A number of countries
Biodiversity
155
Figure 5.15 The number and type of access and benefit-sharing measures, 2011
Number of measures
45
40
35
Types of measures
Regional
National
Sub-national
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Strategy
Policy
Legislation
Regulation
Note: The category Other includes resolutions, guidelines and declarations.
Source: CBD 2012
already have national legislation and regulations pertaining to

issues of access and benefit sharing, and monitoring the further
development of such regulations could provide a useful indicator
of progress (Figure 5.15).
total of managed forests. Similarly, fish products certified by the

Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) constituted only 7 per cent of
global fisheries in 2007 (Jacquet et al. 2009).
In the marine realm, ten countries own 90 per cent of the patents
deposited with marine genes with 70 per cent belonging to
just three but account for only about 20 per cent of the worlds
coastline. These nations benefit from access to the advanced
technologies required to explore the vast genetic reservoir of the
oceans, leading to a call for policies targeting capacity building to
improve access for other countries (Arnaud-Haond et al. 2011).
The CBD requires all member states to develop a national

biodiversity strategy and action plan as the primary mechanism
for the implementation of its strategic plan. To date, 172 of the
193 signatory countries have adopted their plans or equivalent
instruments (CBD 2011). The large number of plans is an
achievement in itself, and more so where they have stimulated
conservation action at the national level and contributed to a
better understanding of biodiversity, its value and management.
In spite of these achievements, national strategies have not been
fully effective in addressing the main drivers of biodiversity loss.
Only a few countries have used the plans as mechanisms for
mainstreaming biodiversity and ecosystem services, and there is
generally poor coordination with other relevant policies (Prip et
al. 2010; CBD 2010c). However, Parties to the CBD are expected
by 2014 to revise their plans in line with the new Strategic
Plan for Biodiversity 20112020, which includes reference to
improving mainstreaming.
PROGRESS, GAPS AND OUTLOOK

Assessment of progress and gaps
Conservation strategies
Protected areas are one of the primary responses for maintaining

biodiversity, particularly on land, but are generally deemed to
be insufficient (Rodrigues et al. 2004). The exclusion of local
communities from many state and private protected areas along
with the failure to fully acknowledge their role in safeguarding
biodiversity remains a challenge to real progress. Outside
protected areas the proportion of sustainably managed production
landscapes for agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture,
amongst others is increasing, but only slowly. For example, the
area of forest certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)
as sustainably managed continues to grow, reaching 149 million
hectares in 2012 (FSC 2012), and there are additional areas
managed under the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest
Certification (PEFC), but this remains a small fraction of the global
156
Other
National biodiversity strategies and action plans
Resource mobilization
Many national reports submitted to the CBD have identified the

lack of financial, human and technical resources as the most
widespread obstacle to implementation of national strategies
and the CBD in general. Thus, the fulfilment of the Aichi Target
to substantially increase resource mobilization will be crucial to
enable the other targets to be achieved.
While documentation is lacking for both the current and the

required level of financing to safeguard biodiversity, there is no
doubt that the gap between the two is substantial. Estimates
suggest that existing financing is in the order of tens of billions
of dollars a year, while total needs are of the order of hundreds
of billions a year (Rands et al. 2010; Berry 2007; James et al.
2001). International financing for biodiversity is estimated to
have grown by approximately 38 per cent in real terms since
1992 and now stands at US$3.1 billion annually (OECD 2010;
Gutman and Davidson 2008). The Global Environmental Facility
(GEF) will provide US$1.2 billion for CBD implementation from
2010 to 2014, an increase of 29 per cent compared to the
previous four years.
Increasingly, innovative financial mechanisms are considered
essential tools to mobilize additional resources for biodiversity.
These include payment for ecosystem services, biodiversity
offsets, ecological fiscal reforms, markets for green products
and biodiversity in new sources of international development
finance. For example, further information on schemes such as
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+)
is available in Chapter 3.
Knowledge gaps for biodiversity monitoring
Although indicators of the state of biodiversity are predominantly

showing declines (Butchart et al. 2010; CBD 2010b), there are
considerable gaps in their geographic, taxonomic and temporal
coverage (Pereira et al. 2010a, 2010b; Walpole et al. 2010;
Collen et al. 2008a, 2008b). While biodiversity loss is a global
phenomenon, its impact may be greatest in the tropics where
available indicators and data coverage are the least complete.
Particular gaps in knowledge for state indicators include:
grassland and wetland extent, habitat condition, primary
productivity, genetic diversity of wild species, freshwater
and terrestrial trophic integrity, ecosystem functioning and
ocean acidification. Pressure indicators lack data on pollution,
exploitation in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, wildlife
disease incidence and freshwater extraction. The principal gaps
in response indicators include sustainable management of
agriculture and freshwater fisheries, and management of invasive
alien species.
A prominent gap in knowledge concerns ecosystem services
(UNEP-WCMC 2011; TEEB 2010). Indicators of the biodiversity that
underpins these services should be tailored to the scales at which
ecological processes that produce the services occur, such as the
landscape scale for agriculture and biomass production, and the
watershed for direct water use and hydroelectricity generation.
Other responses to biodiversity loss include policy action
to tackle an array of issues including hunting and pollution,
and enforcement of environmental impact assessments and
mitigation measures for infrastructure development; however,
global trend data are unavailable for these. Given that most
global biodiversity targets, such as the Aichi Targets, require
action at the national scale, national biodiversity data are crucial
Madagascar a global biodiversity hotspot with many endemic

species including lemurs is using payment-for-ecosystem-services
schemes to attract new funding for the protection of biodiversity and
ecosystems. Tdhster/iStock
for tracking progress towards global biodiversity targets, and

to inform national strategies. National Red Lists of threatened
species are one of the many examples of nationally relevant
biodiversity data that may provide suitable input for reporting
on progress towards these goals and for informing national
conservation priority setting (Zamin et al. 2010), although there
are others which are also suitable (Jones et al. 2011). The Group
on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO
BON) is expected to make an important contribution to future
monitoring efforts (GEO BON 2011), whilst the Biodiversity
Indicators Partnership (BIP 2011) is supporting global and
national biodiversity indicator development for the Aichi Targets
and for national biodiversity strategies and action plans.
Projections, scenarios and horizon scans
While recognizing a time frame of increasing uncertainty,

this section synthesizes biodiversity studies from short-term
projections through to longer-term scenarios with a view
to distilling relatively short-term policy implications. This
relies heavily on the GBO-3 analysis of biodiversity scenarios
(Leadley et al. 2010; Pereira et al. 2010a), for which scientists
from a wide range of disciplines came together to seek
consensus on projections and scenarios for biodiversity change
during the 21st century.
Although quantitative projections and scenario methods are well
advanced, the range of projected changes reported by the studies
Biodiversity
157
reviewed is rather broad, partially because there are significant

opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also
because of large uncertainties in the projections. The projections
of global change impacts on biodiversity show continuing and,
in many cases, accelerating species extinctions (Figure 5.16),
loss of natural habitat, and changes in the distribution and
abundance of species and biomes over the 21st century. Possible
thresholds, amplifying feedbacks and time-lag effects leading to
tipping points appear to be widespread and make the impacts of
global change on biodiversity hard to predict, difficult to control
once they begin, and slow and expensive to reverse once they
have occurred. For many important cases, the degradation of
ecosystem services goes hand-in-hand with species extinctions,
declining species abundance or widespread shifts in species and
biome distributions; however, the conservation of biodiversity
and of some services, especially provisioning services, is often
at odds. Strong action at international, national and local levels
to mitigate the drivers of biodiversity change and to develop
adaptive management strategies could significantly reduce or
reverse undesirable and dangerous biodiversity transformations
if urgently, comprehensively and appropriately applied.
Policy implications
The accumulated evidence, cited above, suggests that there is

greater success in halting the negative changes in biodiversity
and ecosystem services when a proactive attitude in support
of a sustainable environment is adopted. Overall, the above
synthesis, coupled with inputs from UNEPs Foresight Initiative
(Peduzzi et al. 2011), suggests that:
land must be used more efficiently to decrease the rate of

habitat loss;
mitigation of climate change is urgent and there is a
significant risk of tipping points near or even before the 2C
mean global surface temperature target agreed at the UNFCCC
meeting in Cancun in 2010;
payments for ecosystem services and the greening of national
accounts can help to protect biodiversity if appropriately
applied;
protected areas by themselves have not been adequate to
achieve the target of reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by
2010;
potential collapse of oceanic ecosystems requires an
integrated and ecosystem-based approach to ocean
governance; and
recognizing the importance of local participation and
community support, it is crucial to ensure that policies are
integrated, sensitive and inclusive of local communities.
This applies to conservation strategies, preservation of local
cultures and languages, and access and benefit sharing of
genetic resources and traditional knowledge.
Outlook summary
A summary of progress in achieving the main biodiversity goals

is provided in Table 5.2. It also outlines gaps in data and policy
and is based on expert opinion. The International Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is expected to
play an important role at the science-policy interface in future
(Perrings et al. 2011).
Figure 5.16 Scenarios of species change

Extinctions per million species years, logarithmic scale
Extinctions per century, %
100 000
99.99
10 000
63
Plants and
animals
1 000
Lizards
Plants
100
Mammals, birds
and amphibians
10
Birds
1
0.10
0.1
0.01
Climate change
Mammals
Land-use change
Combined drivers
0.01
0.001
0.0001
Fossil record
158
Birds
Plants
10
20th century
(documented)
21st century (scenarios)

Source: Pereira et al. 2010a

B: Some progress

D: Deteriorating
State and trends

Outlook
Gaps
1. Reduce the direct pressures on biodiversity (Notes 4, 6, 7, 13; CBD Targets 510)
Drivers of habitat loss and
degradation
Continuing increases in pressures

from, for example, agriculture and
infrastructure development
Increasing pressure
Quantification of trends in habitat extent and

condition resulting from different drivers
Levels of exploitation
Significant proportion of species

is threatened by overexploitation;
legal international trade is
successfully managed for a small
number of species
Increasing pressure
More systematic measures of exploitation

levels, particularly at local/national scale,
including illegal trade
Spread and impact of

invasive alien species
B/C
Numbers and extent of invasive

alien species are increasing where
quantified; impacts have been
successfully mitigated and the
spread limited in some cases
Continuing spread and impact, with Numbers/impacts in developing countries,

local exceptions
policy implementation and effectiveness at
local/national scale
Pressure from pollutants
Generally increasing pressures

from pollution, but nitrogen
deposition since the 1990s may be
levelling off
Increasing pressure, with local

exceptions for certain pollutants
Trends in levels of pollutants other than

nitrogen
Impacts of climate change
Increasing impacts on phenology,

abundance, distribution and
community composition in all
ecosystems
Increasing pressure
Impacts on population trends and interactions

with other threats
2. Improve the status of biodiversity (Notes 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12; CBD Targets 1113)
Genetic diversity of wild
species
Genetic diversity of cultivated

crops and domesticated animals
has declined and, while unquantified in wild species, is likely
to be declining
Continuing decline
Data collection on genetic diversity of wild

populations
Population abundance of
species
Declining at the global scale,

most rapidly in the tropics,
freshwater habitats and for
utilized marine species; there are
some exceptions due to effective
conservation action, for example
North American waterbirds
Continuing decline
Trends for plants and invertebrates; tropical

coverage patchy; systematic monitoring largely
confined to birds in developed countries
Extinction risk of species
1363 % of species in different

Continuing decline
groups are threatened with
extinction; trends, where known, are
declining (most rapidly for corals)
Trends for plants, invertebrates and remaining

vertebrate classes; national scale extinction
risk trends
Extent, condition and integrity

of biomes, habitats and
ecosystems
Declines in all natural habitats

with known trends, for example
forests, mangroves, seagrasses
and coral reefs; some exceptions,
for example reforestation in some
temperate countries
Consistent and repeated remote-sensing

monitoring, including for non-forest areas;
metrics of condition and fragmentation
Continuing decline
3. Enhance sustainable benefits (ecosystem services) from biodiversity (Notes 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 11, 12; CBD Targets 1416)
Status of species harvested
for food and medicine
Extinction risk trends are worse

for species harvested for food and
medicine than for other species
Benefits currently unsustainable

and likely to decline
Trends for plants and invertebrates; disaggregation

of all data into small-scale subsistence use or
large-scale and/or commercial use
Equitable use of natural

resources
For some countries the per-person

ecological footprint is high and/
or increasing relative to life
expectancy, indicating inefficiency
and often unsustainability in
resource use
Potential for the global ecological

footprint to be reduced while
enhancing human well-being,
requiring major adjustments in
benefit sharing
Suitable data for footprint analysis, including

spatial and temporal resolution data on the
intensity and magnitude of natural resource use
at global level
Biodiversity
159

4. Strengthen responses to safeguard biodiversity (Notes 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13; CBD Targets 120)
Extent, biodiversity coverage
and integrity of protected
areas
Terrestrial coverage has reached

nearly 13%, but marine coverage is
less than 1.5%; representativeness
at the scale of ecoregions is fairly
high, but the proportion of fully
protected key biodiversity sites
is low
Protected area extent is likely

to increase if governments
fulfil their commitments; more
careful site selection and better
management will be required to
protect biodiversity; jurisdictional
uncertainties and conflicts need
resolution
Data on trends in the effectiveness of protected

areas and on jurisdictional uncertainties and
conflict
Extent, biodiversity coverage

and integrity of indigenous
and community-conserved
areas (ICCAs), sacred natural
sites (SNSs) and other
community-managed natural
areas
Community-based governance and

management approaches exist
largely without state recognition
or are newly developing; external
drivers of biodiversity loss and/
or other factors undermine the
capacity of ICCAs, SNSs, and other
such areas to conserve biodiversity
Likely to increase in importance;

empowerment of local communities
in decision making is needed,
plus greater awareness amongst
government protected-area officials
Data on the location, extent, legal status and

effectiveness of these areas for biodiversity
conservation; possible forms and modes of
appropriate state recognition and support
Schemes such as REDD+

or payment for ecosystem
services (PES), where
biodiversity supports
mitigation of, and adaptation
to, climate change
The development of REDD+ and

PES schemes is increasing
The area under REDD+ and PES

schemes is likely to increase,
providing both opportunities and
potential threats for biodiversity
conservation
Potential indicators such as number and area of

community-managed REDD+ areas or number of
national adaptation strategies with ecosystembased components
Proportion of sustainably
managed production areas
Area certified as sustainably

managed increasing, but the
proportional area remains
minimal, with an uneven global
distribution
Area of certified production

increasing, especially in developed
countries
Effectiveness for biodiversity conservation;

impacts of these approaches in non-certified
areas
Policy responses addressing

invasive alien species
Proportion of countries with

Policy responses increasing but
relevant legislation increasing, but ineffective without considerably
implementation and transboundary improved implementation
cooperation are poor
More data needed on implementation and

effectiveness
Action for species recovery,

site safeguarding and habitat
restoration
Numerous local examples show

that successful conservation
programmes prevent extinctions,
restore habitats and conserve
sites; however, the scale of these
efforts remains inadequate
Improvements in coordination and

integration are expected, but on
their own will remain insufficient
More data on species recovery and restoration

needed
Number of countries with

national mechanisms
addressing access and
benefit sharing
Agreement of Nagoya Protocol

on access and benefit sharing is
a significant step forward, with
increasing numbers of signatories
and countries with relevant
legislation
Implementation of the Nagoya

Protocol could address this issue
effectively
Data required on access and benefit-sharing

agreements and beneficiaries, and on the
benefits and sustainability of utilizing genetic
resources
Number of languages
and speakers as a proxy
for traditional knowledge
supporting sustainable
resource use and
conservation
Number of languages and speakers

is declining, suggesting less
traditional knowledge in support of
sustainable use and conservation
Appropriate mechanisms, including

support for customary sustainable
use of biodiversity and secure
tenure, may help to halt the decline
in traditional knowledge
Indicators to capture intergenerational transfer

of traditional knowledge and provision of
incentives; indicators on the retention of
traditional knowledge to assess socialecological resilience
Notes: 1. CBD Article 1; 2. CBD Article 6; 3. CBD Article 8j; 4. CBD Article 10; 5. CBD COP 7 Decision VII/28 Paragraph 1.2.3; 6. CBD COP 7 Decision VII/30 Annex II;
7. Agenda 21 Chapter 17 Paragraph 86; 8. CMS 1979 Preamble; 9. CITES 1973 Preamble; 10. ICPP Article 1; 11. Ramsar Article 3; 12. ITPGRFA Article 1 Paragraph 1.1;
13. Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety Article 1.
160
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C H A P T E R
Credit: Vladimir Melnik/iStock
Chemicals and Waste
Coordinating lead authors: Ricardo Barra, Pierre Portas and Roy Victor Watkinson
Lead authors: Oladele Osibanjo, Ian Rae, Martin Scheringer and Claudia ten Have
Contributing authors: Borislava Batandjieva, Walter Giger, Ivan Holoubek,
Heather Jones-Otazo, Liu Lili, Philip Edward Metcalf, Karina Silvia Beatriz Miglioranza,
Arthur Russell Flegal, Adebola A. Oketola (GEO Fellow) and Monica Montory (GEO Fellow)
Principal scientific reviewer: Mika Sillanpaa
Chapter coordinator: Ludgarde Coppens
Biodiversity
167
Main Messages
There is an extensive but incomplete body of scientific
knowledge on the impacts of chemicals and wastes on
humans and the environment, with particular information
and data gaps on the uses, emissions, exposure pathways
and effects of chemicals. Global understanding of the
complexity of properties and environmental impact of
chemicals and wastes is therefore markedly deficient. The
fourth Global Environment Outlook (2007) indicated that
data were incomplete globally and that, for many regions,
it was important to evaluate the magnitude of chemical
contamination and its impacts on the environment and
human health. But little has occurred since then. The
UN Secretary-General, in his May 2011 report on policy
options for waste management to the Commission on
Sustainable Development, stated that: the barriers to
effective management and minimization include lack of
data, information, and knowledge on waste scenarios.
And the UN-Habitat report on waste management in cities
stated that waste reduction is desirable but, typically, it is
not monitored anywhere (UN-Habitat 2010).
Over the last decade chemical production has shifted
from the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to the BRIC countries
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) and other developing
countries, accompanied by a doubling of sales and the
development of many new types of chemical. The OECDs
share of world production is now 9 per cent less than in
1970. Much of this shift has been due to major emerging
economies. In 2004, China accounted for the largest
share of BRIC production at 48 per cent, followed by
Brazil and India at 20 per cent each, and Russia at 12 per
cent (OECD 2008b). Chemical consumption in developing
countries is likewise growing much faster than in the
168
168

developed world and could account for a third of global

consumption by 2020.
Chemicals play an important role in human life, economic
development and prosperity, yet they can also have
adverse impacts on the environment and human health.
The diversity and potential consequences of such
impacts, combined with limited capacity in developing
countries and economies in transition to manage these
impacts, make the sound management of chemicals
and waste a key cross-cutting issue.A recent study by
the World Health Organization (WHO) (Prss-Ustn et al.
2011) indicated that 4.9 million deaths were attributable
to environmental exposure to chemicals in 2004. In
many regions, hazardous waste streams are mixed with
municipal or solid wastes and then either dumped or
burned in the open air (UN-Habitat 2010).
Global chemical pollution is a serious threat to
sustainable development and livelihoods. The problem
has impacts on both humanity and ecosystems, and
includes adverse effects from long-term exposure to low
or sub-lethal concentrations of single chemicals or to
mixtures of chemicals. Currently, more than 90 per cent
of water and fish samples from aquatic environments
are contaminated by pesticides. Estimates indicate that
about 3 per cent of exposed agricultural workers suffer
from an episode of acute pesticide poisoning every year
(Thunduyil et al. 2008). Pollution with persistent organic
pollutants (POPs) is widespread, in particular affecting
remote areas such as the Arctic and Antarctic.
Emerging issues requiring better understanding
and prompt action to prevent harm to health and
the environment include the sound management of

electronic and electrical waste (e-waste), endocrinedisrupting chemicals, plastics in the environment,
open burning, and the manufacture and use of
nanomaterials. E-waste has become one of the major
environmental challenges of the 21st century: it is the
fastest-growing waste stream in the world, estimated
at 2050 million tonnes per year (Schwarzer 2005).
It is of particular interest because it contains not only
hazardous substances such as heavy metals including
mercury and lead, and endocrine-disrupting substances
such as brominated flame retardants (BFRs) but also
many strategic metals such as gold, palladium and
rare earth metals that can be recovered and recycled.
Very little is known about whether nanomaterials or
nanoparticles are released from products when they
are incinerated, buried or degraded over time, so it is
possible that they will pose a serious waste disposal
challenge. Sound decision making on nanotechnology
has provoked much debate among developed country
regulators, and increasingly among the regulators of
developing countries (Morris et al. 2010).
Effective management of these issues requires better
information gathering and integrated approaches
to chemicals, radioactive materials and waste
management, supported where appropriate by
improved environmental governance. The process for
greater cooperation and coordination between the
chemicals and waste conventions (Basel, Rotterdam
and Stockholm) provides an opportunity to enhance
awareness raising, knowledge transfer, capacity
building and national implementation that should be
further explored.
Chemicals and Waste

Chemicals and Waste
169
169
INTRODUCTION
More than 248000 chemical products are commercially available

(CAS 2011) and subject to regulatory and inventory systems.
Chemicals provide valuable benefits to humanity including in
agriculture, medicine, industrial manufacturing, energy extraction
and generation, and public health and disease vector control.
Chemicals play an important role in achieving developmental and
social goals, especially for improving maternal health, reducing
child mortality and ensuring food security, and advances in
their production and management have increased their safe
application. Nonetheless, because of their intrinsic hazardous
properties, some pose risks to the environment and human
health. Simultaneous exposure to many chemicals the cocktail
or synergistic effect is likely to exacerbate the impacts.
Chemicals are released at many steps in their life cycle, from the
extraction of raw materials, through production chains, transport
and consumption, to final waste disposal. They are distributed
through indoor environments, food and drinking water, and
through soils, rivers and lakes. Certain long-lived chemicals such
as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals are
transported globally, reaching otherwise pristine environments
such as rain forests, deep oceans or polar regions, and can
quickly pass along the food chain, bioaccumulating to cause
toxic effects in humans and wildlife.
Products derived from chemicals often become hazardous
wastes in their end-of-life phase, generating additional
pollution risks that can devalue their initial benefits and
counteract development advantages. Pollution from dumping
and uncontrolled open burning is common (UN-Habitat 2010),
and is even increasing in some parts of the world, though
some progress has been made in recent decades. The causes
of mismanagement often lie in such factors as deficiencies in
institutional and regulatory frameworks. Such shortcomings
also have an impact on the growing transboundary movement
of hazardous wastes from developed to developing countries,
where compliance, monitoring and enforcement of regulations
tend to be weak, and the financial and technical capacity to
implement improved waste management practices is limited. This
leads to a risk of rapidly increasing exposure for greater portions
of the population and to related, often serious, health problems,
in particular for women and children.
a comprehensive manner. In addition, given the cross-sectoral

nature of the issue, the regulation and management of chemicals
in most developing countries is spread over several ministries
including agriculture, industry, labour, environment and health
and between several agencies within each ministry.
In most countries, it is the poorest members of the population
that are at particular risk of exposure. This may be due to
occupational exposure, poor living conditions, lack of access to
clean water and food, domestic proximity to polluting activities,
or a lack of knowledge about the detrimental impacts of
chemicals or a combination of these factors.
Radioactive contamination is another source of potential
environmental and health hazards, both from controlled
emissions and waste management, and from accidental release.
The controlled release of radionuclides to the atmospheric
and aquatic environments may occur as authorized effluent
discharge, while uncontrolled release may occur as a result of
accidents and at legacy sites left by nuclear weapons testing. The
management and disposal of radioactive waste from industry,
research and medicine, as well as from nuclear power, is relevant
to almost all countries, requiring different approaches according
to the volume, radioactivity and other properties of the waste.
Initially, governance instruments for chemicals and wastes
could be considered to have been reactive, piecemeal and
isolated, and with mixed success the Montreal Protocol on
Broadly, a two-speed situation exists, with developed countries

generally having comprehensive systems for chemical and
hazardous waste management, while developing countries
generally do not. Developing countries and economies in
transition struggle with basic landfill co-disposal of many types
of wastes, with little capacity for their separation and sound
management.
While many developing countries have ratified the multilateral
environmental agreements on chemicals and wastes such as
the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movement
of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal (Basel Convention 1989)
these are not always transposed into national legislation in
170
Waste treatment plant, Los Angeles, United States. John Crall/iStock
Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (UNEP 1987), for

example, being effective in reducing the impact of ozonedepleting substances, while the Basel Convention (1989)
has struggled to reduce the transboundary movement of
hazardous waste. There have been significant advances over
the past decade, however, and regulatory instruments are now
improving with the better and more widespread understanding
of the life cycle of chemicals and their association with the
generation and processing of wastes. Efforts to bring the work
of the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions together
constitute a first step towards addressing the entire life cycle
of chemicals. This also applies to the establishment of the
Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management
(SAICM) and the current negotiation for an international
agreement on mercury. Similarly, the Joint Convention on the
Safety of Radioactive Waste Management and the Safety of
Spent Nuclear Fuel Management is a significant step forward.
However, ensuring that these efforts are sustained and fully
anchored at the national level requires further investment in
better science-based understanding of chemicals and wastes,
policy creativity to balance development and sustainability
imperatives, public-private partnerships to link technological
innovation and societal responsibility, and allocation of funds
for comprehensive capacity building.
This chapter evaluates progress towards internationally agreed

goals relevant to chemicals and wastes. The goals are those
identified by the GEO-5 High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory
Panel from key multilateral environmental agreements and
related agreements and declarations, as further considered and
prioritized in regional consultations. The current lack of data, a key
constraint on many aspects of chemical and waste management,
has not been seen as a reason to preclude the selection of a goal.
The goals evaluated are reflected in Table 6.1.
In the 1970s and 1980s the human health and environmental
impacts of chemicals and waste led to the creation of a number
of key international agreements. These, along with other
related goal-based international agreements and declarations
such as those emanating from the 2002 World Summit on
Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, constitute
a framework for organizing and implementing specific goals for
the environmentally sound design, production, consumption and
recycling or disposal of chemicals and hazardous waste (Box 6.1).
These goals are also considered against the background of the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), specifically MDG 1 for
eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, and MDG 7 for ensuring
environmental sustainability. MDG 7 includes specific targets for
ozone-depleting substances, as well as for improved access to
safe drinking water and sanitation facilities.
The broad set of principles pivotal to the development of
international agreements comprises prior informed consent for
the transboundary movement of hazardous waste and certain
hazardous chemicals; transparency through national reporting;
the environmentally sound management of chemicals and waste;
Box 6.1 Multilateral environmental agreements and

the sound management of chemicals
The sound management of chemicals is addressed by
17 different multilateral agreements including the 1998
Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent
Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides
in International Trade and the 2001 Stockholm Convention
on Persistent Organic Pollutants (both effective since 2004).
In addition, in 2006 the First International Conference
on Chemicals Management established the Strategic
Approach to International Chemicals Management (SAICM),
a multi-stakeholder policy framework for achieving the
safe management of chemicals worldwide by 2020 (SAICM
2009). So far, more than 300 activities have been conducted
under the SAICM Global Plan of Action. Pollutant release
and transfer registers have been promoted and currently
just 23 countries have established a functioning national
register. The globally harmonized system of classification
and labelling of chemicals, containing all criteria necessary
for classification of chemicals according to their intrinsic
hazardous properties, has been established, as have
provisions for hazard communication. However, many
challenges remain and the lack of prioritization of sound
management of chemicals, the limitations of legislation,
the lack of information and the lack of adequate financial
resources, including for the funding of activities concerning
the remediation of contaminated sites, are still major
obstacles to achieving the 2020 goal (CSD 2010).
waste prevention; the precautionary approach; and the polluterpays principle. These are addressed through specific obligations
such as the implementation of control measures, monitoring
of the state of the environment, and compliance regimes with
supportive delivery mechanisms including capacity building and
training, international cooperation, synergies and partnerships.
Goals relevant to the sound management of chemicals and
waste aim to protect human health and the environment while
improving resource efficiency. They can be grouped into six
themes:
sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle,
including persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals, and
of waste;
control of the transboundary movement of hazardous wastes
as well as responsible trade in hazardous chemicals;
transparent science-based risk assessment and risk
management procedures, as well as monitoring systems at
the national, regional and global levels;
support for countries to strengthen their capacity for the
sound management of chemicals and waste;
protection and preservation of the marine environment from
all sources of pollution;
safe radioactive and nuclear waste management.
Chemicals and Waste
171
Table 6.1 Selected internationally agreed goals related to chemicals and waste
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI) (WSSD
2002) Paragraph 23
(Prioritized during regional consultations in Europe
and the Asia and Pacific region)
Renew the commitment, as advanced in Agenda 21, to sound management of chemicals throughout their life
cycle and of hazardous wastes for sustainable development as well as for the protection of human health
and the environment, inter alia, aiming to achieve, by 2020, that chemicals are used and produced in ways
that lead to the minimization of significant adverse effects on human health and the environment, using
transparent science-based risk assessment procedures and science-based risk management procedures, taking
into account the precautionary approach, as set out in principle 15 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and
Development (UNCED 1992a), and support developing countries in strengthening their capacity for the sound
management of chemicals and hazardous wastes by providing technical and financial assistance.
Paragraph 22
(Prioritized during regional consultations in the Asia
and Pacific region)
Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling and use of environmentally friendly alternative
materials, with the participation of government authorities and all stakeholders, in order to minimize adverse
effects on the environment and improve resource efficiency, with financial, technical and other assistance for
developing countries.
Paragraph 23g
Promote reduction of the risks posed by heavy metals that are harmful to human health and the environment,
including through a review of relevant studies, such as the United Nations Environment Programme global
assessment of mercury and its compounds.
Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic

Pollutants (Stockholm Convention 2001) Article 1
... to protect human health and the environment from persistent organic pollutants.
Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed

Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous
Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade
(Rotterdam Convention 2001) Article 1
... to promote shared responsibility and cooperative efforts among Parties in the international trade of certain
hazardous chemicals in order to protect human health and the environment from potential harm and to
contribute to their environmentally sound use, by facilitating information exchange about their characteristics,
by providing for a national decision-making process on their import and export and by disseminating these
decisions to Parties.
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary

Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their
Disposal (Basel Convention 1989) Preamble
... to protect, by strict control, human health and the environment against the adverse effects which may result
from the generation and management of hazardous waste and other wastes.
International Convention for the Prevention of

Pollution from Ships 1973, as modified by the
Protocol of 1978 (MARPOL 1973/78) Article 17
The Parties to the Convention accept the obligation to promote, in consultation with other international bodies
and with assistance from UNEP and coordination with the Executive Director of UNEP, the necessary support for
Parties who may require technical assistance in the following areas:
a) Training scientific and technical staff; b) obtaining equipment and monitoring installations where needed;
c) ease the adoption of additional measures and conditions which seek to prevent or reduce pollution in the
marine environment by ships; and d) encourage research; preferably within the concerned countries, in order to
promote realization of the aims and objectives of this convention.
International Convention on the Prevention of

Marine Pollution by the Dumping of Wastes and
Other Matter (London Convention 1972)
Article 2
Contracting Parties shall individually and collectively protect and preserve the marine environment from
all sources of pollution and take effective measures, according to their scientific, technical and economic
capabilities, to prevent, reduce and where practicable eliminate pollution caused by dumping or incineration at
sea of wastes or other matter.
Article 12
The Contracting Parties pledge themselves to promote, within the competent specialized agencies and
other international bodies, measures to protect the marine environment against pollution caused by:
(a) hydrocarbons, including oil and their wastes.
Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992b) Chapter 22 Paragraph 3
The objective of this programme area is to ensure that radioactive wastes are safely managed, transported,
stored and disposed of, with a view to protecting human health and the environment, within a wider framework
of an interactive and integrated approach to radioactive waste management and safety.
Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel

Management and on the Safety of Radioactive
Waste Management (IAEA 1997) Article 1
The objectives of this Convention are: (i) to achieve and maintain a high level of safety worldwide in spent
fuel and radioactive waste management [...]; (ii) to ensure that during all stages of spent fuel and radioactive
waste management there are effective defenses against potential hazards so that individuals, society and
the environment are protected from harmful effects of ionizing radiation, now and in the future, in such a way
that the needs and aspirations of the present generation are met without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their needs and aspirations; (iii) to prevent accidents with radiological consequences
and to mitigate their consequences should they occur during any stage of spent fuel or radioactive waste
management.
STATE AND TRENDS
The fourth Global Environment Outlook (2007) indicated that

data were incomplete at the global level, making it a challenge
for many regions to evaluate the magnitude of chemical
contamination and its impacts on the environment and human
health. Little has changed in five years and a worldwide effort is
needed to fill this gap. The forthcoming UNEP Global Chemicals
172
Outlook report should assist: it aims to provide a framework for

assessing and setting priorities to stimulate further international
action on sound management of chemicals.
Chemicals and wastes: data and indicators
The lack of data on existing chemicals, and the rapid

technological changes that bring new chemicals to the
market, have hindered the production of an established set of

indicators with time-series data that can be used to identify
the state and trends of chemicals and wastes. Several possible
indicators to fill this gap are proposed below. In addition,
extensive investment in collating the required data and
solidifying the knowledge base is required to construct longterm time series.
Box 6.2 Johannesburg Plan of Implementation

(JPOI) (WSSD 2002) Paragraph 23
Issue
The sound management of chemicals throughout their life
cycle for the protection of human health and the environment
Related goals
To ensure, by 2020, that chemicals are used and produced
in ways that lead to the minimization of significant adverse
effects on human health and the environment
Underlying data on waste generation, treatment and recycling

are difficult to obtain. Some are available on hazardous
waste through reports to the Secretariat of the Basel
Convention (Figure 6.1), providing information on the quantity,
characteristics, destination and mode of treatment or disposal
of hazardous waste that is subject to international movement,
but even this is incomplete and unverified as was reported in
2011 to the tenth Conference of the Parties to the Convention
(UNEP 2011a). Global data on non-hazardous waste generation
and disposal have not been systematically reported and are
therefore unsatisfactory. As stated by the UN Secretary-General
in his May 2011 report to the Commission on Sustainable
Development: The barriers to effective management and
minimization include lack of data, information, and knowledge
on waste scenarios, lack of comprehensive regulations and
weak enforcement of existing legislation, weak technical
and organizational capacities, poor public awareness and
cooperation, and lack of funds. (UNCSD 2011)
There is an urgent need to improve the availability and
quality of these basic datasets, with a focus on comparability
between countries, timeliness and coherence over time, and
interpretability. As waste is increasingly seen as a potential
resource, waste data and indicators should be more closely
linked to economic and social information systems and material
Indicators
Number of signatory countries to the three conventions on
chemicals and wastes (Basel, Rotterdam, Stockholm); number
of implementation plans being put in place by these countries
Global trends
Some progress
Labour force, women and children in developing countries,
consumers worldwide
Africa, Latin America and Asia
flow accounting. The measurability issue is critical to assess

waste generation, including municipal, industrial, agricultural,
mining, military, radioactive and nuclear.
Figure 6.1 Transmission of national reports by Parties to the Basel Convention, 19992009
180
160
Number of Parties
Reporting Parties
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Basel Convention 2011
Chemicals and Waste
173
Three indicators to help inform governments and municipalities

of industry performance and progress are highlighted here. It is
imperative that data for these indicators are generated to guide
decision making on sound global management of wastes. The
key indicators proposed are:
quantity and types of waste solid, organic, hazardous and
non-hazardous managed or finally disposed of;
waste and hazardous waste generation per person; and
the amount of municipal or household waste, industrial solid
waste and hazardous waste that is recycled.
Status and trends of the chemical industry
The chemical industry is a major driver of economic growth and

its performance is a leading indicator of economic development.
In 2008 the global chemicals industry had an estimated turnover
of about US$3.7 trillion (OECD 2010a) and was growing at 3.5 per
cent per year. More than 20 million people around the globe are
employed by it directly or indirectly, and it is an intensive energy
consumer and a ubiquitous generator of emissions.
While companies in the countries of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) continue
to account for the bulk of world production (74.5 per cent in
2004), the OECDs share is now 9 per cent less than in 1970.
Much of this shift has been caused by the major emerging
economies, particularly the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia,
India and China). In 2004, China accounted for most BRIC
production (48 per cent), followed by Brazil and India (20 per
cent each), and Russia (12 per cent) (OECD 2008b). Chemical
consumption in developing countries is likewise growing much
faster than in developed countries, and could account for a
third of global consumption by 2020. At the same time, some
Large-scale chemical plant at night. Tetsuo Morita/iStock
data show that developed countries are reducing chemical

use. For example, overall use of pesticides in OECD countries
declined by 5 per cent during 19902002, although trends
vary from country to country (OECD 2008a). Total releases and
transfers of the 152 pesticides that are common to the United
States and Canada dropped by 18 per cent and the production
of ozone-depleting substances almost stopped; emissions of
acid rain precursors dropped by 48 per cent, ozone precursors
by 38 per cent and non-methane volatile organic compounds by
26 per cent. Nonetheless, international cooperation between
all governments is needed to build capacity, share information
and promote effective chemicals management globally (OECD
2008b). Figure 6.2 shows the sales data of the worlds major
chemical-producing countries.
Figure 6.2 Chemical sales by country, 2009

US$, billion
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Iran
Italy
Israel
India
Spain
United Germany Brazil
Mexico Canada Switzerland Chile
Thailand Argentina
States
UK Netherlands Belgium Ireland Russia Singapore Australia Malaysia Indonesia Saudi Poland
China
France Republic
Japan
Arabia
of Korea
Source: OECD 2010b
174
Waste as an issue of global significance
The growing interdependence of the global economy along with

the increasing generation and complexity of waste worldwide
can lead countries to unsound waste management and disposal
operations, and there may come a point when related costs
are such that the economy and public services fail to keep
up. Integrated policies are required to support sustainable
economic development through recycling, recovery, reuse and
other operations aimed at reducing both the use of natural
resources and the quantities of waste, as it is inevitable that
some resource inputs to industrial production are returned to
the environment as waste, and may be hazardous. A critical
issue is to reverse current trends in waste generation, which
would require a high level of commitment to minimize both
quantities and levels of hazard. Furthermore, unsound recycling
comes with the risk of pollution and increased human exposure
to toxic substances. Recycling can also be misused as a disguise
for criminal operations.
The introduction of many new chemical substances to the
market leads to the production of new kinds of wastes. In many
regions, hazardous waste streams are mixed with municipal
or solid wastes and then either dumped or burned in the open
(UN-Habitat 2010). This raises issues of environmental and social
justice, as the people most affected by such precarious practices
are usually the poor who live and work adjacent to dump sites.
Through globalization, materials may be produced in one
country or region, used in another and managed as waste in
a third. Electrical and electronic equipment provides a case
in point (Schluepa et al. 2009; Cui and Forssberg 2003). The
treatment of end-of-life electronics, including toxic substances
and plastics with associated flame-retardants as well as
precious metals, exemplifies the two sides of this business. The
original equipment has the potential to contribute to protecting
human health, supporting livelihoods and creating jobs, while
also promoting a shift from waste to resources that supports
economic development, energy efficiency and the conservation
of natural resources. However, unsound or inadequate waste
management can have profound human health impacts and
cause serious harm to the environment. Extending the useful life
of electrical and electronic equipment and using less harmful
substances in these products is one way to reduce the waste
burden and its accompanying hazards.
Box 6.3 Waste in the OECD

The quantity of municipal waste generated in OECD countries
has risen steeply since 1980, exceeding an estimated 650
million tonnes in 2007 (556 kg per person). In most countries
for which data are available, increased affluence associated
with economic growth and changes in consumption patterns
tend to generate higher levels of waste per person. Over the
past 20 years, however, waste generation has risen less rapidly
than either GDP or expenditure on private consumption, with
a slow-down in recent years. The amount and composition of
municipal waste going to final disposal depend on national
waste management practices. Despite improvements in these
practices, only a few countries have succeeded in reducing the
quantity of solid waste for disposal (OECD 2010b).
Municipal waste constitutes a significant percentage of the total

waste a country generates (OECD 2008b), with annual figures
ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 tonnes per person, and solid waste
generation increasing at an estimated rate of about 0.50.7 per cent
per year. Waste complexity is also increasing with the co-disposal
of assorted waste types: biodegradable components currently
account for almost 50 per cent of municipal solid waste and
electronic waste (e-waste) for 515 per cent. The management of
waste is further complicated by the range and diversity of waste
generators, from mining and a wide variety of manufacturers
through agricultural and medical waste to household rubbish. In
addition, the sound management of municipal waste constitutes
a sizable and continuous part of a municipalitys budget.
Many countries do not have the infrastructure to deal with ever
more complex waste streams. Nor do many have the regulatory
and physical infrastructure to derive some rebate from the
recyclable materials that are inevitably part of municipal waste.
Municipal waste
The unsound management of waste can lead to mutually

reinforcing undesirable effects. It can pollute and contaminate
the environment, pose a threat to human health and represent
a loss of resources in the form of both materials and energy.
The recent UN-Habitat report on solid waste management in
cities refers to the escalating challenge of managing it across
the globe, and amply demonstrates the complexity and variety
of issues faced, including the difficulty of achieving objectives
when progress goes unrecorded, stating for example that
waste reduction is desirable but, typically, it is not monitored
anywhere (UN-Habitat 2010).
Municipal truck with robotic arm collecting residential waste

for recycling. Paul Vasarhelyi/iStock
Chemicals and Waste
175
Life-cycle thinking: identifying the range of impacts

from chemicals and wastes
What ultimately determines how humans and ecosystems

are exposed to toxic chemicals is defined by their life-cycle
characteristics. Releases of substances not only occur during
chemical production but also during the use of products
containing chemicals (Figure 6.3), and finally at their disposal.
Life-cycle thinking promotes an integrated approach to the
sustainable production and consumption of such substances.
The entire life cycle of resource use, from extraction and
production/manufacture through consumption/use to postconsumption disposal, produces undesirable environmental
impacts from emissions and wastes. These impacts can include
unintended side effects such as endocrine disruption, which
directly interferes with growth and development in most animals,
and can also affect people (WHO 2002). Life-cycle analysis
helps understand such impacts, but, while a useful tool, it can
be extremely complex. Too often, when problems are identified,
shifts to alternative chemicals that have the same intended
properties may result in further unexpected or undesirable
outcomes (Muir and Howard 2010).
The latest materials to raise concern are those arising from
synthetic biology and engineered nanomaterials. With the
accelerated pace at which new technologies and chemicals are
being deployed (Poliakoff et al. 2002), a different approach
is needed in which their implications are systematically and

comprehensively assessed before they reach production. The use
of green chemistry principles in chemical design and the adoption
of clean production processes may help to prevent problems at
a later stage. While this is happening in some parts of the world
through the use of exposure models for example by the Canadian
Centre for Environmental Modelling and Chemistry (CEMC 2012)
for some technologies and chemicals, life-cycle analysis has yet
to become a universal systematic approach. This may well require
new forms of international governance (Finnveden et al. 2009).
The high number and diversity of chemicals and the complexity of
their life cycles inevitably lead to a situation where the scientific
understanding of the impacts of chemicals, and the regulatory
schemes used to manage them, lag behind technological and
economic developments.
Poverty and exposure to chemicals: vulnerable groups

The overwhelming majority of impacts from unsafe chemical
use and unsound waste disposal including death, impairment
of health and ecosystem degradation occur in situations
of poverty (Sexton et al. 2011). Increased risks of exposure
to toxic and hazardous chemicals and wastes predominantly
affect the poor, who routinely face such risks because of their
occupation, poor living standards and lack of knowledge
about the detrimental impacts of exposure to these chemicals
and wastes. Many of the poor enter the informal sector of the
Figure 6.3 Life-cycle analysis of chemicals
Water and food

safety
Naturally occurring
contaminants
e.g. arsenic and fluoride
in water, natural toxins
Raw materials
e.g. fossil fuels,
raw chemicals
Manufacture
and transport
Human and
environmental
exposure
Manufactured products
e.g. industrial and
agricultural chemicals,
petroleum products
Combustion
Transport and
health, air quality
Combustion products
e.g. indoor and outdoor
air pollutants
Note: Dashed lines are management options; solid lines correspond to the life cycle.
176
Use and
disposal
Waste and by-products

e.g. e-waste, POPs
Chemical safety
Occupational,
transport and
chemical safely
Chemical and
product safety
Occupational,
chemical, food and
water safety
Waste management,
chemical, food and
water safety
Source: Adapted from Prss-Ustn et al. 2011
attributable to environmental exposure to chemicals in 2004.

Indoor smoke from the use of solid fuels, outdoor air pollution and
second-hand smoke are among the most critical causes. The study
concluded that the known burden of chemicals, while considerable,
is an underestimate because data on many chemicals are scarce.
Changes in the global production, trade and use of chemicals
and the concomitant production of hazardous wastes are not
always accompanied by corresponding control measures,
thus increasing the risk of releasing hazardous chemicals
into the environment. It is estimated that there are 2 million
contaminated sites in Europe, the United States and the Russian
Federation alone. Data for developing countries and economies
in transition are more difficult to obtain, but indications are
worrying. The Global Inventory Project which involves the
Blacksmith Institute together with the United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO), the Green Cross and the
European Commission is currently assessing the state of
contaminated areas in 80 countries worldwide, with trace metal
and pesticide pollution among the ten most problematic types of
contamination (Blacksmith Institute 2011). This is the first such
attempt to give governments, international organizations and
affected communities aggregated data for decision making.
Shacks along a polluted waterway in Manila, Philippines.

Marcus Lindstrm/iStock
economy where they may encounter new kinds of toxic hazards

such as electronic and electrical waste (e-waste). Risk is not only
related to the dose they receive from such exposure, but also to
important factors such as age, nutritional status and co-exposure
to other chemicals. Children are particularly susceptible to the
negative health impacts of chemicals due to their rapid growth
and development and greater exposure relative to body weight
(Sheffield and Landrigan 2011).
Marine pollution
The oceans cover 71 per cent of the Earths surface and are
polluted to varying degrees, threatening marine life, fisheries,
mangroves, coral reefs, and estuarine and coastal zones, with
A recent study by the World Health Organization (WHO) (PrssUstn et al. 2011) indicated that 4.9 million deaths were
Figure 6.4 PCBs in beached plastics

France (2 746)
Netherlands
United Kingdom
United States
Hawaii
300
200
100
0
Greece Turkey
Japan
China
India
Trinidad
and Tobago
Viet Nam
Hong
Kong
Malaysia Singapore
Ghana
Philippines
Indonesia
Brazil
500
400
Italy
Barbados
Costa
Rica
PCB concentration
nanograms per gram
600
Portugal
Chile
Argentina
Mozambique
South
Africa
Samples of polyethylene pellets were collected at 56 beaches in 29

countries and analysed for concentrations of organochlorine compounds.
PCB concentrations shown here as nanograms per gram were highest
in pellets collected in the United States, Western Europe and Japan. They
were lowest in samples collected in tropical Asia and Africa. This spatial
pattern reflects regional dierences in the use of PCBs.
Australia
Source: UNEP 2011b
Chemicals and Waste
177
Box 6.4 Waste generated on board ship

The world fleet comprises more than 80 000 vessels of
which around 50 000 merchant ships carry out 90 per cent
of international trade. Every ship generates waste during its
operation or when transporting cargo, including sludge, oily
tank washings known as slops, rubbish from the crew, and
cargo residues. Depending on its size, a ship can generate
a few hundred tonnes of slops during a voyage. With 50 000
ships of more than 500GT (gross tonnage) in the world fleet,
and assuming an average of ten port calls per ship, half a
million port calls take place annually (Mikelis 2010). Port
states are required by the International Convention for the
Prevention of Pollution from Ships 1973, as modified by its
1978 Protocol (MARPOL 73/78), to provide adequate port
reception facilities to collect waste generated on board ships.
Illicit discharges of slops represent a major source of marine
pollution. For instance, according to the Regional Marine
Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean
Sea (REMPEC), there are more than 2 500 illicit discharges
of ship waste in the Mediterranean Sea annually. The 1972
London Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by
Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter, along with its 1996
Protocol, is one of the first global conventions to protect the
marine environment from the effects of human activities and
has been in force since 1975. Its objective is to promote the
effective control of all sources of marine pollution and to
take all practicable steps to prevent pollution of the sea by
dumping of wastes and other matter.
some 80 per cent of the pollution coming from land-based

sources (UNEP 2011b). Common man-made pollutants include
pesticides, chemical fertilizers, heavy metals, detergents,
oil, sewage, plastics and other solids (UNEP 2011b). Many of
these pollutants accumulate in the deep oceans and sediments
(Jacobsen et al. 2010; Zarfl and Matthies 2010; Wania and Daly
2002), where they are consumed by small marine organisms
and may be reintroduced to the global food chain. Some 20 per
cent of marine pollution originates from direct disposal into the
oceans: regular discharges of oily wastes from ships, accidental
oil spills and untreated sewage disposal in enclosed areas such
as the Mediterranean are threats to marine ecosystems (UNEP
2011b). Figure 6.4 shows the occurrence of PCB in beached
plastics around the globe. Some of the most harmful pollutants
also come from diffuse sources such as air pollution.
Persistent organic pollutants
Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are a group of chemicals

with common features including persistence, bioaccumulation
and long-range transport. Combined with their toxicity, these
characteristics have significant adverse effects both on wildlife,
including marine mammals, and on human populations,
in particular such vulnerable groups as nursing mothers
and infants. The health effects of exposure to POPs include
178
neuro-developmental disorders, endocrine disruption and

carcinogenicity (Diamanti-Kandarakis et al. 2009).
The Stockholm Convention on POPs was adopted in 2001 in
response to an urgent need for global action, and entered
into force in 2004. It currently has 174 Parties and calls for
documentation of the amounts of POPs that are still present in
different countries and for global monitoring of these substances
in human tissue (blood and milk). This is one of two indicators
proposed for monitoring and assessing the status and trends
of POPs in the environment and their impact on human health.
The Stockholm Convention established a Global Monitoring
Plan as a source of globally consistent and reliable data.
Collection of data is at an early stage and more will become
available in the coming years, but individual studies already
provide historical and regional trends for some substances. An
example is DDT, for which Ritter et al. (2011) report global time
series of concentrations in human tissue from many individual
measurements (Figure 6.5). In general, DDT body burdens have
fallen over recent decades, but are still considerably higher in
tropical than northern regions. Where DDT is used for malaria
control, concentrations are still very high and the decrease is less
pronounced than elsewhere.
The other indicator for POPs is trends of selected atmospheric POPs
in both urban/industrialized and remote regions. Concentrations
of these substances in the air follow changes in emissions more
closely than concentrations in food and human tissue, and reflect
the effect of atmospheric long-range transport. Hung et al. (2010)
provide a summary of long-term time trends of various POPs
measured at Arctic monitoring stations. In general, concentrations
of most substances in Arctic air show a falling trend, but
Box 6.5 Human health, the environment and

persistent organic pollutants
Related goals
To protect human health and the environment from POPs
Indicators
Trends in levels of selected POPs in human tissue;
trends in atmospheric levels of selected POPs such as
PCBs (conventional POPs, regulated for many years)
and endosulfan (emerging POPs, added to the list in the
Stockholm Convention in 2010)
Global trends
Some progress; it is too early to use the above indicators for
evaluation
Most vulnerable communities and areas of greatest concern
Arctic communities, in particular children; communities in areas
with indoor residual spraying of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
(DDT); children of the world exposed to POPs
half-lives are often long five to ten years and sometimes even
longer. In recent years the decrease has come to a halt for several
compounds, and some concentrations have been observed to be on
the rise, for example polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlordane
and DDT. Long-term trends for two PCBs are shown in Figure 6.6.
Figure 6.5 DDT levels in humans, 19602008

Nanograms per gram of lipid weight (note logarithmic scale)
1 000 000
The environmental behaviour of POPs is strongly affected by

temperature and other climate-related factors (UNEP AMAP 2010;
Macleod et al. 2005), including precipitation patterns, wind
fields and extreme weather events. In general, climate change is
expected to cause greater mobilization of POPs from primary and
secondary sources as well as increased airborne transport (Lamon
et al. 2009). It is unclear to what extent higher temperatures will
accelerate the degradation of POPs, but the melting of ice in which
they have been held for decades contributes to rising amounts of
POPs and other pollutants in the environment (Bogdal et al. 2010).
100 000
10 000
1 000
100
10
1960
Northern highly exposed population

Tropical highly exposed population
Tropical general population
Northern general population
1970
1980
1990
Pesticides including POPs

2000
2010
Source: Ritter et al. 2011
Pesticides are compounds designed to kill specific pests but

often reach non-target organisms as well. In one study, more than
90 per cent of sampled water and fish were found to be
contaminated by several pesticides and estimates indicated that
Figure 6.6 Trends in two PCBs from air monitoring data at two sites in the northern hemisphere, 19952005
Alert, Canada
Storhofdi, Iceland
Picograms per m3 (natural logarithm)

3
2
1
Seasonal cycle
Smoothed trend
PCB-180
Picograms per m3 (natural logarithm)

3
2
PCB-180
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
PCB-52
PCB-52
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Adapted from Hung et al. 2010
Chemicals and Waste
179
A farmer, wearing no protective equipment, sprays his vines with pesticide. Alistair Scott/iStock
about 3 per cent of exposed agricultural workers suffer from an

episode of acute pesticide poisoning every year (Thunduyil et al.
2008). It is therefore imperative to know the nature of exposure
and causes of contamination, and to identify action that can
be taken to reduce pesticide levels in terrestrial and aquatic
ecosystems. Long-term pesticide sales data constitute the main
global and regional indicators of pesticide use (Brodesser et al.
2006). The last 25 years have seen a reduction in insecticide
sales due to mammalian toxicity concerns, although general
pesticide sales increased from US$5.4 billion in 2004 to
US$7.5 billion by 2009 in the Latin American region, with
2,4-D, paraquat, methamidophos, methomyl, endosulfan and
chlorpyrifos accounting for a high proportion of these sales
(Brodesser et al. 2006).
Globally, the main 15 pesticides found in streams and
groundwater include the herbicides atrazine and di-ethylatrazine,
metolachlor, cyanazine and alachlor, and the insecticide
diazinon. However, regarding fish, riverbed sediments and soils,
the main pesticides still include persistent insecticides, heavily
used in the 1960s and currently banned in most developed
countries, such as DDT, dieldrin and chlordane. Moreover,
endosulfan sulphate, the metabolite of endosulfan still in use in
many countries, is a very common contaminant of surface and
groundwater (Ondarza et al. 2011). Although the use of most
organochlorine insecticides came to an end 1025 years ago,
they remain in the environment at levels of concern (Gonzalez
et al. 2010; Ondarza et al. 2010).
More than 70 per cent of the populations of low-income countries
live in rural areas, and 97 per cent of rural populations are
engaged in agriculture. While developing countries account
for just one-third of global pesticide use, the vast majority of
pesticide poisonings occur in these countries (Brodesser
et al. 2006).
180
The extent of human exposure and the health effects of

pesticides under future climate change conditions will depend
on the adoption of less toxic practices that take account of
changes in factors such as temperature and precipitation
(Boxall et al. 2009).
Obsolete pesticides
Pesticides become obsolete when they can no longer be used
for their intended purpose. There are four major international
agreements for their regulation: the Stockholm, Rotterdam and
Basel Conventions and the 1998 Protocol on POPs to the 1979
Geneva Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution
(UNECE Geneva Convention 1979/98). It is difficult to estimate
exact quantities of obsolete pesticides because many are very
old and documentation is scarce. Parties to the Stockholm
Convention are in the process of collecting information on
nine POPs that were added to the conventions annex in 2009,
including hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), and a good deal is
known about dump sites of the latter even though some smaller
sites may be missed. However, amounts of obsolete pesticides
that do not fall under the Stockholm Convention remain vague
and can only be roughly calculated. On the basis of experience
in Africa and the Middle East, UNEP estimates that on average
POP pesticides make up only around 30 per cent of all existing
obsolete pesticides (UNEP 2000).
Country-by-country assessments carried out by the International
HCH and Pesticide Association (IHPA 2009) suggest that obsolete
pesticides could amount to between 256000 and 263000 tonnes
in the countries of the former Soviet Union, the Southern Balkans
and new Member States of the European Union (defined as
EU-12, EU accession countries, the countries of the European
Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the Russian Federation and Central
Asia together), costing approximately US$780 million to dispose
of, while some estimates for Africa by UNEP Chemicals suggested
Table 6.2 Quantities of obsolete pesticides

Region
Africa
Asia
Eastern Europe
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Near East
Total
Estimated quantities
(tonnes)
Estimated disposal
costs at US$3 000
5 000 per tonne
(US$ million)
27 395
82.2137.0
6 463
19.432.3
240 998
722.91 204.9
11 284
33.956.4
4 528
13.622.6
290 668
8721 453
Note: The latest updates given by FAO vary from 1994 to 2006.
Source: FAO 2012
that there may be as much as 120000 tonnes remaining (UNEP

2002), costing some US$200250 million to dispose of, applying
UN Food and Agriculture Organization cost estimates (FAO 2002).
These assessments alone identify 376000383000 tonnes for
disposal at a cost of US$9681040 million. The most recent
FAO figures, shown in Table 6.2, indicate that there are some
290000 tonnes of pesticide stockpiles with estimated disposal
costs of US$30005000 per tonne (FAO 2012).
The Africa Stockpiles Programme (ASP), launched in 2005,
aimed to clear all obsolete pesticides and contaminated
waste in Africa within 1015 years and to promote prevention
measures and capacity building. It is very likely that the costs of
inaction by far exceed the costs of cleaning up. As underlined by
the European Environment Agency (EEA), downplaying the costs
of inaction is a frequent phenomenon (Koppe and Keys 2001)
and analysis suggests that the costs of inaction are high
(OECD 2008c).
Poisoning by naturally occurring arsenic is a global problem

(Ravenscroft et al. 2009). More than a decade ago it was estimated
that 130 million people around the world have been exposed
to toxic levels of arsenic in drinking water, above the WHO
recommended limit of 10 parts per billion (Smith and Lingus
2000), but there is mounting evidence that arsenic toxicity occurs
at levels below that standard (Wasserman et al. 2004). There are
also many unexplored sources of arsenic and the total number of
people affected may be higher (Huang et al. 2011). Associated
toxicities include diabetes and skin, kidney, lung, neurological and
vascular diseases most notably blackfoot disease which leads to
gangrene and bladder cancer. These diseases are most prevalent
in vulnerable populations living on subsistence diets of arseniccontaminated foods and with limited access to clean water,
minerals and nutrients, which partially counteract that toxicity.
Arsenic pollution in Bangladesh, which resulted from drilling wells
to protect the population from surface waters contaminated with
pathogens (Lokuge et al. 2004), has been described as the largest
poisoning of a population in history (Smith and Lingus 2000).
Populations in both developed and developing countries may
be exposed to arsenic at contaminated sites left behind by the
formerly widespread use of arsenic as a pesticide.
Lead is among the most prominent of the global contaminants
(Rauch and Pacyna 2009), with several activities being
responsible for acute lead poisoning. There are on-going
human health problems at previous mining and smelting sites,
including in Kabwe, Nigeria (Nweke and Sanders 2009) and
the Rudnaya River Valley, Russia (von Braun et al. 2002), where
high lead levels in children persisted after the smelters in both
areas were closed, and in La Oroya, Peru, where 99.7 per cent
of the children living nearest the smelter were found to have
dangerously high levels of lead in their systems (Fraser 2009).
On a global scale, some 85 per cent of lead-acid batteries
are recycled, but there are recycling sites such as in Dakar,
Metals, metalloids and heavy metals
Inorganic pollutants, including metals and metalloids, also

adversely impact human populations on a global scale
(Blacksmith Institute 2011). Unlike organic chemicals, metallic
elements do not degrade and may accumulate in the environment
and become increasingly bio-available over time. Their impacts
are often most severe in the developing countries where they are
mined, processed, used and recycled with limited environmental
control and regulation. Populations in more developed countries
also suffer from historic and on-going industrial emissions
of pollutants, as well as from associated releases of other
pollutants such as sulphur oxides, which cause acid rain, and
acid mine drainage (Carn et al. 2007). Contamination even
extends to Antarctica, as industrial pollutant emissions are
carried there by long-range atmospheric transport from other
continents (Caroli et al. 2001). Pollutants can also be re-released
after decades as glaciers melt (Geisz et al. 2008).
The Lavender red copper open pit mine in Bisbee, Arizona, United States.
Claude Dagenais/iStock
Chemicals and Waste
181
Senegal (Haefliger et al. 2009), where the average blood-lead

concentration of children was at 130 micrograms per decilitre,
enough to cause acute toxicity or even death (ATSDR 2007).
Children may also be exposed to lead in paints, which has
been phased out in developed countries but persists in some
developing ones (Lanphear et al. 1998). Electronic waste
recycling can also involve exposure to lead in solder, and there
are sites such as Guiyu, China (Huo et al. 2007), where 82
per cent of the children tested in the village had blood-lead
concentrations above the US Centers for Disease Control action
level of 10 micrograms per decilitre (ATSDR 2007). Although that
level is two orders above the estimated natural lead level, there
is no established lower threshold for lead toxicity in humans
(Flegal and Smith 1992).
A number of other metals such as zinc, copper and manganese

could have harmful human and environmental impacts at
certain levels. Cadmium, which was once used in pigments
and for electroplating, is the most toxic, and contaminated
sites may remain. Its main uses now are in rechargeable nickelcadmium batteries, and collection and recycling of these items
must be efficient if it is not to be released to the environment.
Cadmium is also released into the environment by some fossil
fuel combustion, and is in addition a natural contaminant in
phosphate deposits, so may be transferred in fertilizers and
taken up by root vegetables (Jarup and Akesson 2009).
Radioactive material
Radioactive material has been in use since the 1890s, increasing

significantly with the advent of nuclear energy in the 1940s
and its exploitation in weapons, with a concomitant increase in
the generation of radioactive waste and contaminated sites. In
addition, the use of radioactive materials in industry, research
and medicine continues and increases, as do the mining and
processing of minerals containing elevated concentrations of
naturally occurring radionuclides. Some contaminated sites
have been remediated at significant cost, while others remain to
be addressed. The rising cost and reduced availability of fossil
fuels have from time to time favoured the adoption of nuclear
power, as have recent concerns over greenhouse gas emissions.
However, social attitudes to nuclear accidents such as those at
Three Mile Island and Chernobyl which are rare but can have
a very high impact have exerted a restraining influence. It was
predicted in 2008 that the use of nuclear energy would increase
by 1545 per cent by 2020 and by 2595 per cent by 2030 (IAEA
2008a), but future activity is likely to be affected by responses to
the more recent Fukushima disaster.
Most coals contain tiny proportions of mercury, so industrial

mercury fluxes to the biosphere are projected to increase
with greater fossil fuel combustion (Soerensen et al. 2010).
While large amounts of mercury are thus released into the
environment from numerous industrial activities, reports of
acute neurotoxicity from mercury poisoning are now primarily
associated with its use to amalgamate gold in artisanal mining,
which is practised in more than 50 countries (Bose-OReilly
et al. 2008). In Indonesia and Zimbabwe, all of the children
tested in two mining areas were found to have elevated mercury
levels and corresponding signs of mercury intoxication, whether
they were directly involved in mining or not (Bose-OReilly
et al. 2008). This poisoning of children is of special concern
because mercury, even at sub-lethal levels, is a neurotoxin that
can permanently impair development and like some other
toxins foster auto-immune resistance, making children and
adults more vulnerable to infection and disease, as has been
found with artisanal gold miners in Brazil (Feingold et al. 2010).
Currently, UNEP is convening an intergovernmental negotiating
committee to prepare a global legally binding instrument on
mercury: more than 100 countries are participating and a global
treaty text is expected to be ready for adoption in late 2013
(Selin and Selin 2006).
Radioactive waste takes many physical and chemical forms and

has differing radioactive properties. The international system
of classification (IAEA 2009a) links waste classes (exempt, very
short lived, very low level, low level, intermediate level, high level)
to options for management and disposal. Disposal is the final
Table 6.3 Global inventory of radioactive waste, 2004

Waste source
Low- and intermediate-level

waste
Volume
(million m3)
Activity
(million TBq)
Nuclear power
1.2
Industrial or
medical use
1.2
Weapons
0.7
Total
3.1
Spent fuel
Mass
(million MTHM)
0.17
0.17
High-level waste
Activity
(million TBq)
28 000
28 000
Volume
(million m3)
Mining
Activity
(million TBq)
Volume
(million m3)
Activity
(TBq million)
0.034
42
1 600
0.028
0.8
31
250
0.0046
0.8
73
1 850
0.033
Note: MTHM metric tonne of heavy metal; TBq Tera-Becquerel.

Source: IAEA 2008b
182
radioactive waste disposal facilities;

management of legacy wastes;
monitoring of disused sealed sources and recovery of orphan
sources;
knowledge management and human resources development;
and
provision of financial resources for liabilities.
There has been a growing trend for disposal facilities to undergo
international peer-reviewed safety demonstration (IAEA 2006).
In addition, the 2010 General Conference of the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) created an International Working
Forum on Regulatory Supervision of Legacy Sites (IAEA 2010),
aimed at enhancing regulatory regimes, the professional
development of regulators and the application of safety and
environmental assessment.
EMERGING ISSUES
Crates for storing radioactive material. Clearviewimages/iStock
step in the management of radioactive waste, generally in nearsurface or deep land-based facilities. Apart from high-level and
some intermediate-level waste, the majority has been disposed
of in such facilities. Table 6.3 presents an estimate of the global
inventory of radioactive waste (IAEA 2008b).
About a hundred near-surface facilities exist, and others for
disposal of waste of various levels are under development in
a number of countries, although the process of selecting and
designing a site is often contentious. Many nuclear reactors
are ageing and will need to be decommissioned in the near
future, resulting in radioactive waste and signalling the need for
disposal facilities and trained professionals to operate them. As
of 2 February 2012, 435 nuclear power reactors with a combined
capacity of about 368 gigawatts are in operation in 30 countries,
of which around 75 per cent are more than 20 years old, and
63 plants with a combined capacity of 61 gigawatts are under
construction in 14 countries (European Nuclear Society 2012).
Contracting Parties to the Joint Convention on Radioactive Waste
and Spent Fuel increased steadily after its establishment in 1997
to number 58 in April 2011, and are committed to ensuring a high
level of safety in radioactive waste management. At the 2009
triennial review meeting, the reports of 45 Contracting Parties
were reviewed with the conclusion that there is a commitment
to improve safety, make progress in building, maintaining and
implementing legal/regulatory frameworks, and observe good
practices in national radioactive waste management strategies
and policies (IAEA 2009b). Despite progress since the 2006
review meeting, however, the 2009 meeting concluded that
much still needed to be done to meet the following challenges:
implementation of national policies for the long-term
management of spent fuel, including disposal;
siting, construction and operation of spent fuel and
Policy making and regulatory processes are naturally prone to

lag behind rapid changes taking place in the global production
and distribution of chemicals and wastes. The challenge is to
protect human health and the environment from the undesirable
effects of chemicals and wastes even when there are inadequate
quantitative data and the potential life-cycle hazards of both old
and new materials are incompletely understood.
Nanomaterial and nanoparticles
Many new materials are produced as minute particles of a

nanometre or one-billionth of a metre in size, and they
exhibit chemical and biological properties that are quite
different from those of the corresponding bulk materials.
Commercial applications of nanomaterials include, for example,
food packaging, personal care products, cosmetics and
pharmaceuticals. Their unique properties make nanomaterials
useful in cancer therapies, the neutralization of pollution or
improvement of energy efficiency. However, safety testing is in
its infancy and governments have been slow to adapt existing
regulations to these new materials, even though they are widely
marketed and some potential for human exposure has been
identified (Morris et al. 2010). More research is needed for a better
understanding of workplace and consumer exposure and related
impacts on human health, especially as some of these materials
are known to pass through the skin and are small enough to
penetrate cell membranes and cause toxic effects at cellular and
sub-cellular scales. Furthermore, very little is known about whether
nanomaterials or nanoparticles are released from products when
they are incinerated, buried or degrade over time, so it is possible
that they will pose a serious waste disposal challenge. Sound
decision making on nanotechnology has provoked much debate
among developed-country regulators, and is increasingly doing so
among the regulators of developing countries (Morris et al. 2010).
Plastics in the environment
Plastics are ubiquitous in the environment. They are widely used

in many products and have many formulations. The simple plastic
bag is a prime example of how a utilitarian object can become
an environmental hazard. More than 500 billion plastic bags are
Chemicals and Waste
183
used every year but many are improperly disposed of, ending
up as marine litter. This significant problem was highlighted in
the UNEP Yearbook 2011 (UNEP 2011b), showing that discarded
plastic debris forms a major component of marine litter, degrading
into micro-pollutants in ocean gyres, fouling beaches in coastal
waters, and entering the food chain where it is consumed by
marine fauna such as turtles and sea birds, weakening or killing
them by affecting their digestion, respiration and reproduction.
There is concern that these plastics also act as transport vectors
of persistent organic pollutants such as PCBs and similar
compounds, with chronic effects on wildlife. The solution is sound
management, preventing the escape or discharge of this material,
yet rates of plastic recycling and reuse vary greatly, from more
than 80 per cent in some EU countries to only a small percentage
in many developing ones. The Global Programme of Action (GPA)
for the protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based
Activities and other local and regional initiatives are seeking to
address this issue (Astudillo et al. 2009; Young et al. 2009).
Electronic waste
The high turnover of equipment in the information and

communication technology industry has caused an increase in
obsolete electrical and electronic products, which in turn has
generated almost uncontrollable volumes of end-of-life products
driving a global trade in e-waste. As the fastest growing waste
stream in the world, estimated at 20-50 million tonnes per year,
e-waste has become one of the major environmental challenges
of the 21st century (Schwarzer 2005). Generated by a wide
range of electrical products, it is of particular interest because it
contains not only hazardous substances including heavy metals
such as mercury and lead, and endocrine-disrupting substances
such as brominated flame retardants (BFRs), but also many
strategic metals such as gold, palladium and rare earth metals
that can be recovered and recycled. E-waste can thereby serve as
a valuable source of secondary raw materials, reducing pressure
on scarce natural resources and the environmental footprint of

the mining industry.
Developing countries nonetheless remain the destination of
most of the e-waste exported from developed countries as
second-hand or used equipment. Yet these countries often
lack the infrastructure, capacity and resources for its sound
management (UNEP 2009), with the informal sector and
vulnerable groupsemploying crude processing methods such
as open-air burning or acid leaching to recover valuable metals
like copper and gold. In the process, toxic substances in the
waste may be released into the environment, posing a high risk
to ecological and human health. Recent studies have revealed
that by 2016, developing countries will generate twice as much
e-waste as developed countries (Zoeteman et al. 2010), but while
electronic equipment has positive impacts on development and
progress, it can have negative impacts on both human health and
environmental integrity as end-of-life e-waste. This is a growing
environmental and public health issue that threatens attainment
of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in developing
countries and economies in transition.
Endocrine disruptors
Endocrine disruption is the term given to the alteration of

hormonal signals in living systems when they are exposed to
chemical substances. A considerable number of chemicals
have been shown to be endocrine disruptors, affecting the
growth and reproductive and neurological development of many
species, including humans (Waye and Trudeau 2011; Gore
and Patisaul 2010; Toppari et al. 1996; Colborn et al. 1993).
In addition, the numerous chemical substances, both natural
and anthropogenic, that are present in the environment in low
concentrations come together to exacerbate exposure of both
humans and wildlife. Many investigations have been conducted
since publication of the Global Assessment of the State-of-theScience of Endocrine Disruptors (WHO 2002), and it is clear that
both inorganic and organic substances can affect hormonal
signalling. UNEP has proposed listing this as an emerging policy
issue for listing under the Strategic Approach to International
Chemicals Management (SAICM).
Open burning
Discarded computer circuit boards. roccomontoya/iStock
184
In open burning, the pollutants produced by combustion are

released directly to the air and so enter the environment in
uncontrolled ways. Open burning can include forest wildfires,
planned combustion activities such as burning stubble in
preparation for a subsequent grain crop,irresponsible burning
of waste such as domestic rubbish and e-waste,arson-initiated
combustion of scrap tyres, and even public detonation of
fireworks (Lemieux et al. 2004). Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
(PAHs) are always released in these processes,and (in the
case of fireworks) heavy metals such as lead and copper are
also released. PAHs are widespread in the environment in both
developed and developing countries (Barra et al. 2007),and
concern about their carcinogenic properties has led to their
classification as primary pollutants by agencies such as the US
Environmental Protection Agency.
Gaps in the understanding of chemical toxicity
Since humans are continually exposed to a multitude of

manufactured chemicals, there is a need to understand the
behaviour of these chemicals and their interaction with
human health and the environment. Previously unsuspected
properties of widely used chemicals present legacy problems
that raise concern in the scientific community and among the
public. For example, of the many chemicals that have been
found to have endocrine-disrupting properties, bisphenol-A
is present in many plastic baby bottles and food can liners,
and phthalate esters in various flexible plastics including
some childrens toys (Hengstler et al. 2011). Consumer
vigilance is not enough to prevent exposure in such cases
because the presence of these chemicals is usually not evident
to the non-expert. This places a heavy responsibility on public
authorities to inform people about potential risks associated
with manufactured chemicals, and on manufacturers to exercise
the extended or individual producer responsibility approach
and to search for alternatives.
Most existing chemical regulations worldwide address the effects
of individual substances. Managing single chemicals is difficult
enough, but there is also concern about gaps in understanding
human exposure to mixtures of chemicals (Rajapakse et al. 2002;
Silva et al. 2002). As mentioned, little has been done to study
the toxicology of mixtures. There is an urgent need for further
risk assessment of the combined exposure of multiple chemicals
the chemical cocktail or synergistic effects to human health
and the environment. Integrated environmental risk assessments
based on state-of-the-art dynamic pollutant modelling and
toxicological experiments on chemical cocktails will help quantify
planetary boundaries for chemical pollution (Handoh and Kawai
2011; Rockstrm et al. 2009).
GAPS AND OUTLOOK

Chemical properties, patterns of use and the
environment
There is a lack of information about the health and environmental

effects of many chemical substances and about the products in
which different types of chemicals are used (OECD 2008b).
Huge gaps in the assessment of chemicals arise from two causes.
First, many were introduced and became established items of
commerce before systematic assessments began. Where there is
mounting evidence of harm or potential harm, action can lead to
regional controls and eventual listing under global conventions,
but most industrial chemicals remain unassessed. Second,
concerns have arisen over hitherto unsuspected properties such
as the endocrine activity of phthalates and bisphenol A, for
example, or long-range transport coupled with bioaccumulation.
Furthermore, academic assessment suggests the potential for
further industrial chemicals and pesticides to qualify as POPs
(Muir and Howard 2010, 2006). It should also be noted that
wastes are often mixed, which makes it extremely difficult to
assess the risks of any chemicals present. In addition, residues
arising from the recycling of hazardous waste may contain a
higher concentration of toxic materials than the recyclable
materials themselves.
Long-term monitoring programmes for POPs in the environment

as well as in human tissue need to be maintained and expanded,
in particular in the southern hemisphere. They are essential for a
better understanding of trends in global chemical pollution and
for the Stockholm Conventions evaluation of effectiveness.
More extensive work on chemical toxicity inventories is aiming
to fill a significant gap. An example is the European legislation
on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of
Chemicals (REACH). This has extended the number of chemicals
covered by regulations, notably those that were on the market
before 1981 and previously exempt (Chapter 11).
Limited information on chemicals in products makes it difficult
to document the extent of the risk posed to human health
and the environment. Initiatives such as the ongoing UNEP
Global Chemicals Outlook and the Cost of Inaction (UNEP
Mainstreaming of Chemicals) will help to fill some important
knowledge gaps.
In addition to scientific knowledge gaps, sound chemicals and
waste management is also hampered by a lack of resources,
capacity and compliance monitoring. A lack of education and
training also limits appropriate management of chemicals and
wastes in many developing countries. Increased trade resulting
from free trade agreements can complicate this picture (Vogel
1997), as such agreements may well exert even more pressure
on emerging economies with respect to regulating or restricting
chemical use.
Chemicals, wastes and drinking water
At the global level, about 1.1 billion people do not have access
to a safe water supply and 2.6 billion people do not have access
to adequate sanitation facilities. The associated health impacts
are alarming: 1.7 million deaths per year, of which 90 per cent
are children under five years of age (WHO/UNICEF 2005). The
costs of water pollution may represent between 0.3 and 1.9 per
cent of rural gross domestic product (GDP) (WHO/UNICEF 2005).
Industrial sectors with the potential for significant water pollution
include the chemicals sector, food and beverage sector, textile and
mining industry and pulp and paper sector. The policy framework
for regulating the industrial point sources of water pollution is
well developed in most OECD countries, although some pollutants
such as heavy metals and chlorinated solvents remain a concern.
Increasing attention is being paid to non-point sources, such as
agricultural run-off, which are more difficult to regulate but can
lead to nitrate pollution of water bodies. In addition to efforts
to reduce the run-off of organic pollutants from fertilizers and
manure, organophosphates from pesticides are also a concern.
Studies reviewed by the OECD (2008a, 2008b) suggest that
national measures to reduce agricultural run-off and manage storm
water, including targeted measures to reduce a variety of different
pollutants such as arsenic and nitrates, could yield health benefits
in excess of US$100 million in large OECD economies (Hammer et
al. 2011). In non-OECD countries, the cost of inaction with respect
to unsafe water supply and sanitation is particularly acute.
Chemicals and Waste
185
Box 6.6 Funding: an ongoing challenge

Much effort at the intergovernmental level goes into identifying
the funding and support needs of capacity building, technical
assistance and institutional strengthening for the sound
management of chemicals and waste in developing countries
and economies in transition. This is reflected in the decisions
of the Conferences of the Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam and
Stockholm Conventions, especially for national implementation
plans. International funding for implementation of the
chemicals and wastes agenda is currently managed and
channelled through the World Bank, Global Environment
Facility (GEF), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),
UNEP, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization
(UNIDO), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research
(UNITAR), FAO, WHO and the Quick Start Programme of SAICM,
as well as the OECD and regional development banks. Some
funding is also available through private-sector bodies. In
addition, SAICM, the Inter-Organization Programme for the
Sound Management of Chemicals (IOMC), Intergovernmental
Forum on Chemical Safety (IFCS), and Organisation for the
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) play supportive and
coordinating roles.
The final meeting of the Consultative Process in October 2011

resulted in a document outlining an integrated approach
to financing the sound management of chemicals and
wastes (UNEP 2012). This formed the basis of a report by
the UNEP Executive Director to the UNEP Governing Council
Special Session in February 2012, which in turn resulted in
governments requesting the Executive Director for a fullyfledged proposal on an integrated approach ensuring optimal
funding for the chemicals and wastes sector. A decision on
this is expected at the third SAICM International Conference
on Chemicals Management in September 2012 and the UNEP
Governing Council in 2013.
The existing approach is hampered by fragmentation,

disconnections and insufficient coordination, and adequate
funding remains a fundamental challenge. For example, lack of
agreement on funding has played a significant part in delaying
establishment of a compliance mechanism for the Stockholm
Convention. As a result, in 2009 the Executive Director of UNEP
launched the Consultative Process on Financing Options for
Chemicals and Wastes to look at overall funding needs and
possibilities. Between 2009 and 2011 participants discussed
four tracks:
mainstreaming of sound management of chemicals and
hazardous wastes;
The follow-up to the Consultative Process is an important

opportunity to raise the profile of financing for sound
management of chemicals and wastes and links to human
health and development, the environment and carbon. It
is an intrinsic component of development and a necessary
objective to bring lasting social, environmental and economic
benefits. Without adequate infrastructure in the key sectors of
health, water, sanitation, energy, transport, information and
communication technology, and disaster management, there
is little hope of protecting people from the risks of exposure to
harmful chemicals, hazardous or radioactive waste and other
waste streams contaminating the environment.
Reinforcing a global response
The Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions and other

instruments that address chemicals and wastes including the
Montreal Protocol on Ozone-Depleting Substances, MARPOL,
the London Convention, and regional treaties like the Bamako,
Waigani or Mediterranean Conventions, as well as the future
Minamata Convention on Mercury represent the foundation
on which to build and consolidate a global response to protect
human health and the environment from the adverse effects of
chemicals and waste. Discussions conducted under the auspices
of these global instruments enable emerging problems to be
foreseen and facilitate the formulation of ways to manage issues
soundly and collectively on a sustainable basis. All these global
legally binding instruments, as well as regional agreements such
as those agreed by the OECD and the European Commission,
share the universal principle of an environmentally sound
management of chemicals and waste. A key feature of this global
186
industry involvement, including private-public partnerships

and the use of economic instruments at the national and
international levels;
a new trust fund similar to the Multilateral Fund; and
introducing safe chemicals and waste management as
a new GEF focal area, expanding the existing POPs focal
area under GEF or establishing a new trust fund under
the GEF.
architecture is transparency in the collection and dissemination

of information. The EU chemicals legislation, REACH, is
exemplary of such efforts (Hartung and Rovida, 2009). But large
gaps remain, both in addressing the number of chemicals and
nanomaterials present in the market, and in the fact that many
countries are unable to manage hazardous chemicals and waste
in an environmentally sound way.
With the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions sharing
the common objective of protecting human health and the
environment from hazardous chemicals and wastes, the Parties
to these agreements have embarked on rationalizing their
operations to improve assistance to countries in managing
chemicals at different stages of their life cycle. This has been
exemplified by the establishment of the International Panel
on Chemical Pollution (IPCP) in 2008, enhanced cooperation
and coordination between the three conventions during their
Outlook
respective Conferences of the Parties in 2008 and 2009, and

their simultaneous extraordinary meetings in Bali, Indonesia,
in February 2010. Since early 2011, the convention secretariats
have been working under a joint Executive Secretary, opening
up the possibility of a more holistic approach to the sound
management of chemicals and waste (Basel Convention 2012).
Table 6.4 summarizes the main goals into key themes and uses the
indicators described in this chapter to illustrate progress towards
their achievement. It also makes recommendations for consideration
alongside those from other chapters in Part 1 when developing policy
options and responses as outlined in Parts 2 and 3.

B: Some progress

D: Deteriorating
State and trends

Outlook
Gaps
1. Provide sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle and of waste
Sound management of
chemicals
17 multilateral agreements are in place and

over 300 activities have been conducted
under the SAICM Global Plan of Action;
23 countries have a functioning national
chemical register; a globally harmonized
system of classification and labelling of
chemicals has been established
Sound management of
waste
Objective standards of environmentally

Waste production will increase
sound waste management are not optimal; according to current trends in
practices vary widely according to local
consumption and trade
norms and conditions; cities face increasing
problems with management of municipal
waste, poor monitoring and open burning,
and illegal traffic in waste
Data on waste
Improve resource
efficiency
Efficient ways of transforming waste into

energy, applicable in developing countries,
are lacking
Environmentally sound energy

recovery will benefit some
situations if balanced with
emphasis on waste recovery for
reuse and recycling rather than
competing with energy solutions
Technology transfer and capacity building for the

long term to ensure the performance of any facility
is maintained
Prevent and minimize

waste by maximizing
reuse, recycling and
environmentally
friendly alternative
materials
Many initiatives and some regional and

national programmes exist, including
Reduce, Reuse, Recycle; EU Producer
Responsibility Directives; Basel Mobile
Phone Partnership; and Basel Partnership
Action on Computer Equipment
Potential to raise many of these

efforts to a global level
Global measurement methodology and data

on waste minimization; reliable data and trend
information
Strict control of
the generation and
management of hazardous
and other waste
Data from national reporting to the Basel

Convention Secretariat is sparse and
difficult to interpret; reporting by Parties is
declining
Trend may continue if Parties

are not supported in improving
compliance and changing
direction
Additional effort on awareness raising and capacity

building
Continuing exposure to POPs in

all parts of the world is likely;
climate change may increase
exposure due to greater
mobilization of POPs
Support to developing countries for their national

implementation plans under the Stockholm
Convention;
greater attention to DDT exposure from malaria
control, and exposure to polybrominated diphenyl
ethers (among other chemicals) from handling
e-waste
Ongoing global negotiations

on mercury are positive, and
further efforts are required
to include heavy metals
(lead, cadmium, arsenic) in
international agreements
Additional research into alternative, more benign

chemicals for use in consumer goods to help
reduce the heavy metal burden to the environment;
more stringent occupational, human health and
environmental standards
The number of developing

countries implementing sound
chemicals management is
increasing
Strengthening of the life-cycle approach; a more

integrated global framework for risk assessment
and risk management of chemicals; plans for the
implementation of sound management of chemicals,
most notably for developing countries heavily involved
in the production, trade and use of chemicals,
particularly in Asia and the Pacific and Latin America
2. Protect human health and the environment from POPs

Eliminate or restrict the B/B/B B: Some progress, but it is still too early
production, use, import
to evaluate headway on the basis of the
and export of POPs
indicators; B: long-term records show a
decrease in atmospheric POP concentrations
during the 1980s and 1990s, but trends have
levelled off since 2000; B: in urban regions
of Western industrialized countries PCB
emissions are ongoing and of the order of
0.11.0 gram per person per year
3. Reduction of the risks posed by heavy metals
Restrict production and
use of heavy metals
Progress in developed countries has resulted

in a less frequent occurrence of acute toxicity,
but exposure still occurs at industrial and
legacy sites, and there is increasing concern
regarding possible subtle developmental
effects of chronic, low-level exposure;
significant problems remain in developing
countries, where heavy metals are often mined,
processed, used and recycled with limited
control, and where most cases of acute toxicity
occur, particularly for lead, mercury and arsenic
Chemicals and Waste
187

3. Reduction of the risks posed by heavy metals continued
Restrict import and
export of heavy
metals, and waste
containing heavy
metals
The rapid turnover of e-products and high

cost of eliminating the hazardous substances
within them have led to growth in the trade
and movement of e-waste to developing
countries where labour costs and health and
environmental standards are lower
EU directive on the restriction of

certain hazardous substances in
e-waste is a positive step; global
initiatives are also required
Improve waste
disposal techniques
for waste containing
heavy metals
Much controlled disposal takes place

in developed countries, but work is still
needed in many developing countries
to improve disposal following mining,
smelting, battery and e-waste recycling
Internationally agreed goals

for lead, mercury and possibly
other heavy metals exist or are in
development; further efforts are
required
Global initiatives such as that on mercury would be

beneficial
More stringent occupational, human health and

environmental standards, as well as more stringent
regulations surrounding disposal
4. Promote shared responsibility and cooperative efforts between Parties in the international trade of certain hazardous chemicals
Develop national
decision-making
processes for the
import and export of
hazardous chemicals
Many developing countries lack policies on

sound management, with weak institutional
and regulatory frameworks and poor
enforcement of existing laws; there is no
coherent approach for national decisionmaking, with a multiplicity of government
agencies having mandates for the import
and export of hazardous chemicals, causing
jurisdictional conflict and weakening
decision-making
Facilitate information
exchange
about chemical
characteristics
There is a lack of datasets and effective

mechanisms available to national, regional
and international stakeholders for the
retrieval and dissemination of information
about chemicals characteristics; poor
information exchange between government
agencies at the national level is hindering
informed decision making
Foreseeable improvement if the

rate of notifications under the
Rotterdam Convention continues
or is enhanced
Improvement of mechanisms, governance and a

regulatory framework for effective decision making
at regional and national levels, including promoting
synergy in the implementation of international
chemical and waste agreements
Development and implementation of functional

international, regional and national networks for the
exchange of information on the characteristics of
hazardous chemicals and wastes
5. Use transparent science-based risk assessment and risk management procedures

Sound management
of chemicals
throughout their life
cycle
Risk assessment is being used at the

international level (Stockholm Convention),
but is constrained in developing countries
by the lack of data on exposure and effects
caused by chemicals and wastes, and also
by capacity constraints
The situation may improve

through the activities of the
convention review committees,
the intergovernmental process on
mercury, EU REACH and national
reassessments of chemicals
Data on childrens vulnerability to chemical

risk (average risk assessment only uses adult
data); training in chemicals identification and
risk management under the auspices of SAICM;
disclosure of product composition
Under the Montreal Protocol, training has

been provided for ozone officers to detect
illegal shipments; the Globally Harmonized
System (GHS) for labelling of chemicals in
the workplace is hazard-based and can be
used as input to risk assessment
There is uncertainty about both the
hazardousness of certain chemicals and the
risk they pose; chemicals in products are
often not identified, sometimes for reasons
of commercial confidentiality
Encourage research
in order to prevent,
eliminate and reduce
pollution of the
marine environment
Historically, investment in marine pollution

research has been more active in the
northern hemisphere; more recently,
important efforts are being made in
the developing world to protect marine
resources often an important food source
from pollution
Scientifically sound data on contamination
6. Develop adequate monitoring systems (national, regional and global)

Develop sound
science-based
monitoring
programmes
188
For POPs, the Global Monitoring Plan is

in place; for a wide range of additional
chemicals, biomonitoring programmes are
inadequate in most countries and human
exposure is incompletely documented;
hazardous waste reporting systems
are available for Parties to the Basel
Convention but are not fully taken up or
reported; the impacts of waste due to
unsound disposal are difficult to quantify
Global monitoring programmes

involving chemicals are being
developed and harmonization
and global coverage are expected
to be reached in the coming years
Comprehensive regional and global monitoring

programmes for building spatial and temporal trends
of key chemicals and wastes, as well as datasets and
indicators to enable monitoring of change; biomarkers
and bioindicators to assist the assessment of chemical
exposure and effects; training and appropriate
laboratory facilities in developing countries, and
support to build capacity for monitoring hazardous
residues imported from developed countries (storage,
disposal or reprocessing)

7. Capacity development
Sound
C
management of
chemicals and
hazardous wastes
Improve resource
efficiency
Control of
transboundary
movements of
hazardous waste
In spite of efforts by international agencies,

capacity development for sound management
in developing countries is still lacking; Basel
and Stockholm Convention Regional Centres
have been established to enhance the
capacity of governments and stakeholders in
developing countries, but adequate financing
mechanisms are not yet in place
Waste disposal rather than integrated waste
management is practised without resource
and materials recovery, and national waste
policy and legislations on integrated waste
management as well as infrastructure for
collection are inadequate; crude and resourceinefficient recycling exists in the informal
economy
The control system available via the Basel
Conventions prior informed consent
notification process can work very well when
fully utilized, though the process is vulnerable
to circumvention and illegal traffic
Situation likely to improve

An adequate financing mechanism, as well as
if Stockholm and Basel
information and knowledge sharing between north
Conventions, SAICM and the
and south
GHS can be supported through
innovative financing mechanisms
Environmentally sound
management of waste instead
of indiscriminate disposal and
uncontrolled open burning
Promotion of regional and national initiatives on

waste-to-energy and waste-to-organic-fertilizers,
along with waste recycling and materials recovery
through pilot/demonstration projects
Full national implementation

of the Basel Convention and
measures under SAICM, along
with further stimulus, would
improve the rate of progress
Improved capacity building and funding mechanisms

to sustain implementation and compliance of
the Basel Convention; elaboration of synergistic
convention initiatives at the regional and national
levels; improved cooperation between international,
regional and national networks for controlling the
transboundary movement of hazardous waste
Greater cooperation, for example through the European
IMPEL and global INECE networks, to improve compliance
and enforcement, together with Interpol Pollution
Crimes Working Group initiatives; better reporting as
well as active collaboration and cooperation with Basel
Convention focal points in developing countries
8. Protect and preserve the marine environment from all sources of pollution
Pollution from
ships
Protect the marine

environment
Progress has been made under the MARPOL

Convention 150 countries have ratified
although many are yet to comply; control of
greenhouse gas emissions from international
shipping, and a draft of the reduction
mechanisms themselves are under further
consideration by the International Maritime
Organizations Marine Environment Protection
Committee (MEPC)
Protection of the marine environment has not
always been given priority by institutional
arrangements or by environmental regulations
in developing countries; UNEPs regional seas
conventions have not all been transposed into
law or implemented; many countries have not
ratified or implemented MARPOL; the level
of coastal and marine pollution continues to
increase, with a lack of control of land-based
sources of pollution at the regional and
national levels; unsustainable exploitation of
marine resources and the marine environment
is widespread
Likely to improve with the

Development and implementation of functional
development of new mechanisms international networks for the control of ships
under MEPC
wastes, including disposal facilities in ports
Mixed
International action to promote the ratification,

transposition into national law and implementation
of MARPOL, the regional seas conventions and the
London Convention at the regional and national
levels, as well as to develop multilateral agreements
on chemicals and waste
Radioactive waste will continue

to be generated by the nuclear
industry, medical and industrial
uses and mining and mineral
exploitation, with elevated
levels of naturally occurring
radionuclides; management and
disposal facilities will be needed
in the foreseeable future
A number of countries have
decided to phase out their
nuclear programmes following
the Fukushima accident while
others continue to develop their
programmes; it is too early to say
what the overall impact will be
A closer link between the Joint Convention (already

an important global instrument for safe management
of radioactive waste) and other international
instruments on hazardous materials to develop
beneficial synergies; support for international efforts
to assist with remediation of uranium mining legacy
sites
9. Radioactive waste management and safety

Ensure that
radioactive
wastes are
safely managed,
transported, stored
and disposed of
Prevent accidents
with radiological
consequences
and mitigate
consequences of
accidental releases
Radioactive waste from the operation of nuclear

facilities and uses of radioactive material in
medicine, industry and research are generally
controlled according to international standards
and reported at meetings of the Joint Convention
on Spent Fuel and Radioactive Waste; some
legacy sites remain from nuclear weapons
production and testing; some uranium mining
legacy sites remain in Africa and Central Asia
The Fukushima accident illustrates that nuclear
accidents can still occur despite improvements
since Chernobyl, and the Convention on
Nuclear Safety (sister convention to the Joint
Convention) is intended to ensure countries
maintain a high level of safety
More emphasis to ensure that the objectives of

the Convention on Nuclear Safety and the Joint
Convention are achieved
Chemicals and Waste
189
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C H A P T E R
Evgeny Terentev/iStock
Coordinating lead authors: Jill Jger and Neeyati Patel

Lead authors: Vladimir Ryabinin, Pushker Kharecha, James Reynolds, Lawrence Hislop
and Johan Rockstrm
Contributing authors: Andrew Githeko, Pauline Dube, Niki Frantzeskaki, Derk Loorbach,
Jan Rotmans, Genrikh Alekseev, Benjamin Gaddis and Jiansheng Ye (GEO Fellow)
Principal scientific reviewer: Gerhard J. Herndl
Chapter coordinator: Neeyati Patel
Chemicals and Waste
193
Main Messages
The changes discussed in Chapters 26 are taking
place within an integrated, interconnected whole
that is the Earth System. Humans are an integral
part of that system.
as of temperature and sea level rise affect the social

cohesion of indigenous communities: in Alaska, for
example, permafrost thawing and increased flooding
are forcing villages to relocate.
The Earth System is complex and composed of

interacting components. Non-linear interactions
within and among these components, supplemented
by the inherent difficulties in anticipating human
behaviour, impose limits on the predictability of the
Earth System.
Traditional expert-driven, top-down approaches to

problem solving are not flexible enough to address
complex, non-linear changes in the Earth System
effectively. After more than 20 years of tackling
problems of unsustainable development as more
or less isolated issues, an integrated Earth Systems
approach is needed for informed and effective
decision-making.
As human pressures within the Earth System

increase, several critical thresholds are approaching
or have been exceeded, beyond which abrupt and
non-linear changes to the life-support functions
of the planet could occur. This has significant
implications for human well-being now and in
the future. For example: climate variability and
extreme weather influence food security; crossing
of thresholds leads to significant health impacts,
as shown by the increase in malaria in response
to rising temperatures; increased frequency and
severity of climatic events affect both natural assets
and human security; and accelerating changes such
194
194

There is an urgent need to address the underlying

drivers of the human pressures on the Earth
System. At the same time, it is necessary to
adopt approaches that can deal better with the
complexities and inherent uncertainties of the Earth
System. This must include three elements: basic
research to understand interactions and feedbacks;
sustained long-term monitoring and observation to
underpin basic research; and regular evaluation of
progress to allow the adjustment of responses when
observations indicate that this is necessary.
INTRODUCTION
The first pictures of the Earth from space stimulated an

immediate and profound appreciation of its finite boundaries.
Scientific advancements continue to enable a better view of the
Earth as a whole. This includes a combination of surface and
remote-sensing global observation systems that can document
global-scale phenomena, advances in the ability to reconstruct
past states of the environment, and enhanced computing
power to conduct global-scale simulation experiments (Steffen
et al. 2004b). Evidence shows that human activities are now so
pervasive and profound in their consequences that they affect
the Earth at a planetary scale.
Following on from Chapter 1, which highlighted major drivers
of change, and Chapters 26, which illustrated environmental
changes and their impacts at the local, regional and even global
levels, this chapter discusses change from an Earth System
perspective and provides a context for steering transitions in the
way we live, work and govern the planet.
THE EARTH SYSTEM
A system is a collection of component parts that interact with

one another within a defined boundary. The Earth System is
a complex social-environmental system, including the vast
collection of interacting physical, chemical, biological and
social components and processes that determine the state
and evolution of the planet and life on it. The biophysical
components of the Earth System are often referred to as
spheres: atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere.
They provide environmental processes that regulate the
functioning of the Earth, such as the climate system, the
ecological services generated by the living biosphere,

including food production, and natural resources like fossil
fuels and minerals. Humans are an integral part of the Earth
System. All spheres include countless subsystems and levels
of organization. The interactions within and between these
spheres are complex and the predictability of future states of
the Earth System is limited.
Unprecedented changes
Some experts suggest that the Earth has entered a new

geological epoch, the Anthropocene (Zalasiewicz et al. 2011,
2010). The word was coined by Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen to
capture the idea that humans are now overwhelming the forces of
nature. An implication of entering the Anthropocene would be the
leaving of the Holocene, the interglacial period that has provided
humanity, over the past 10000 years, with extraordinarily good
living conditions, enabling the development of modern societies
and a world with 7 billion people (Folke et al. 2011).
Crutzen (2002) suggests that the Industrial Revolution 250 years
ago saw the beginning of the Anthropocene. The unprecedented
rise in human population since the early 19th century, from
less than a billion to 7 billion at present, is inherent to the
Anthropocene as it unfolds (Zalasiewicz et al. 2010). Many
societal changes have accompanied this proliferation of the
human population, such as increased consumption of natural
resources and an enormous expansion of dependence on fossil
fuels (Chapter 1).
The Earth System demonstrates complexity in its natural
variability independently of, and previous to, human influence.
Figure 7.1 Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations

CO2 concentrations, ppm
400
2011 (391 ppm)

2007 (380 ppm)
1958 (315 ppm)
300
200
100
Air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice preserve an 800 000-year record of atmospheric CO2 levels,
which have varied naturally from about 180 to about 280 ppm (Luethi et al. 2008). Once
humans began burning large quantities of coal and oil in the 19th century, concentrations
began to rise beyond these levels, reaching 315 ppm by 1958 when direct measurements of
CO2 in the atmosphere began to 380 ppm in 2007 and 391 ppm in 2011
0
800 000
Years before present
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
Source: Adapted from NASA Earth Observatory 2010
195
Ice cores in Antarctica have shown that during the past 800000
years, air temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations
have oscillated within a relatively limited range (Luethi et al.
2008), with variations that could be largely linked to factors such
as the irregularities of the Earths rotation and motion along its
orbit around the Sun (Hays et al. 1976). Current concentrations
of atmospheric CO2 are, however, well outside the range of the
past (Figure 7.1), having risen from 310 parts per million (ppm)
in 1950 to 391 ppm in 2011 (NOAA 2011), with half the total rise
in atmospheric CO2 since the pre-industrial era having occurred
in the last 30 years (Steffen et al. 2007).
seascapes (Estes et al. 2011). Fewer scientists appear to have

recognized that, in the longer term, these extinctions will alter
not only biological diversity but also the evolutionary processes
by which diversity is generated (Myers and Knoll 2001).
Biodiversity, the variety of life on Earth, has evolved over the last
3.8 billion years or so of the planets approximately 5-billion-year
history. Five major extinction events have been recorded over
this period, but, unlike the previous events which were due
to natural upheavals and planetary change the current loss
of biodiversity is mainly due to human activities and is often
referred to as the sixth global extinction (Barnosky et al. 2011;
Eldredge 2001). According to the Global Biodiversity Outlook
3 (CBD 2010), the abundance of some vertebrate populations
fell by nearly one-third on average between 1970 and 2006 and
continues to fall globally. Many biologists consider that coming
decades will see the loss of large numbers of species (Leadley et al.
2010), increasing the risk of abrupt change in landscapes and
EARTH SYSTEM COMPLEXITIES
Earth System interactions
Given the interconnections between the different spheres of the

Earth System, changes in one part of the system have effects
in one or more of the others. Box 7.1 shows examples from
Chapters 26 that illustrate Earth System interactions between
spheres and how they are being changed by human activities.
The complexity of the Earth System is associated with its

countless interacting processes, at many scales and levels of
system organization. Importantly, these interactions mean that
changes rarely occur in linear and incremental ways. Instead,
the dominant behaviour when the various systems on Earth
undergo change is for it to happen in a non-linear way, driven by
feedbacks that either dampen change (negative feedbacks) or
reinforce it (positive feedbacks) (Steffen et al. 2004a). Many such
feedbacks shape the Earth System.
Positive feedbacks are increases in system reaction that may
destabilize the system and move it into another state a regime
Box 7.1 Examples of Earth System interactions influenced by human activities

Atmospherebiosphere
Altered atmospheric concentrations of sulphur dioxide
affect terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems through acid
rain (Chapter 2), with impacts including significant losses
of fish stocks and other sensitive aquatic species, and
effects on biodiversity and forestry.
The biosphere in polar regions has been contaminated by
the long-range transport of industrial pollutants from other
continents (Chapter 6).
Geospherehydrosphere
The rate at which global groundwater stocks are decreasing
because of abstractions more than doubled between 1960
and 2000 (Chapter 4). Depletion of groundwater aquifers
can lead to land subsidence and saltwater intrusion into
freshwater supplies. Furthermore, due to human activities
such as agriculture, nutrient mobilization in watersheds
around the world, including of phosphorous and nitrogen,
has increased significantly since 1960 (Chapter 4).
Atmospheregeosphere
As much as 90 per cent of near-surface permafrost may
thaw and disappear by 2100, releasing CO2 and methane
into the atmosphere (Chapter 3).
The frequency of both extremely heavy and extremely light or
absent precipitation (drought) has increased over much of the
196
worlds land area. Long-term trends show a tendency towards

drier conditions in the Sahel and northern India (Chapter 2).
Biospherehydrosphere
Dam building and the control of rivers and their floodplains
affect ecosystems and biodiversity (Chapter 4 and 5).
Water pollutants from waste disposal of industrial
effluents, sewage, rubbish, agricultural run-off and
atmospheric pollution (acid rain) present a major threat to
inland wetlands and their biodiversity (Chapter 5).
Atmospherehydrosphere
A substantial portion of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is
absorbed by the oceans annually. This reacts with the water
to create carbonic acid, thereby making the ocean more
acidic. The mean surface ocean pH has already decreased
from 8.2 to 8.1 and is projected to fall to 7.7 by 2100
(Chapter 4).
Certain long-lived chemicals such as persistent organic
pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals reach the marine
environment and are transported globally, causing toxic
effects in humans and wildlife (Chapter 6).
Geospherebiosphere
Oil spills continue to pose a threat to aquatic and marine
ecosystems (Chapter 4).
shift (Box 7.2). An example of a positive feedback is the effect

of black carbon deposition in the Arctic (McConnell et al. 2007).
Black carbon particles are emitted into the atmosphere from the
incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels (Chapter 2).
The Arctic climate is especially vulnerable to black carbon
deposition because of its impact on the albedo (reflectivity)
of snow, glaciers and sea ice. Black carbon makes the surface
darker, thus reflecting less radiation, which leads to an increase
in warming and ice/snow melt. Ramanathan and Carmichael
(2008) report that, at high elevations in the Himalayas, positive
feedback from the increased absorption of solar radiation by
black carbon may be as important in the melting of snowpack and
glaciers as are the rising temperatures that result from increased
atmospheric CO2.
An important relationship between the temperature and carbon
content of the Earths atmosphere manifests itself both on
relatively short and on geological timescales (Pagini et al.
2010), and is the result of many contributing feedbacks in the
atmosphere and other components of the Earth System. For
example, with the higher temperature and greater acidity of
ocean waters, the ability of the ocean to act as a carbon sink
weakens (Steffen et al. 2004b). This positive feedback is one
that increases system reaction and is thus destabilizing.
Another destabilizing feedback, increasingly discussed in
climate science, is related to the carbon reservoirs in the Arctic
permafrost. If rising temperatures lead to permafrost thaw, this
will release carbon and lead to further increases in temperature
and consequently to even more permafrost thaw and more
releases of carbon (Krey et al. 2009).
The eutrophication of this river is evident from the bright green water,
caused by a dense bloom of bluegreen alga Microcystis. Heike Kampe/iStock
The role of biodiversity in such feedback processes is not

currently well understood because of the complexity of
interactions in physical, chemical and biological processes. It
is, however, well known that a positive feedback, which could
enhance climate change, will occur if the carbon stored below
ground is released to the atmosphere by accelerated respiration
induced by soil warming (Rustad et al. 2001).
A negative feedback is when the initial response is suppressed,
which tends to be stabilizing. For example, if increased water
in the atmosphere leads to greater cloud cover, this raises the
percentage of sunlight reflected away from the Earth (albedo),
which leads to a fall in the temperature of the atmosphere and a
decrease in the rate of evaporation (Schmidt et al. 2010).
Forests are a valuable carbon sink and provide a negative feedback

response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Eugenio Opitz
So far, the dominant aggregate response of the Earth System to

human pressure has been to dampen its impacts (Steffen et al.
2004b). This is explained by the inherent resilience of the Earth
System, where the biosphere interacts with the climate system,
in particular, to buffer disturbances including some induced by
humans. As a result, as a negative feedback response to CO2
emissions from human activities, the global carbon sink in the
biosphere has increased from approximately 2 billion tonnes
of carbon per year in the 1960s to approximately 4 billion in
2005 (Canadell et al. 2007). However, there are indications that
the capacity of the biosphere to buffer pressures from global
environmental change is declining (Le Qur et al. 2009), and
there is growing evidence of positive feedbacks occurring at
the local level, for example eutrophication of lakes (Qin et al.
2007), through to the regional level, such as accelerated melting
of Arctic ice cover due to a regional amplification of warming
(Serreze and Barry 2011).
197
Box 7.2 Regime shifts

Ecological regime shifts that occur when a certain threshold
is passed are usually abrupt, with the change in response
far greater than the change in forcing (change in drivers).
Regime shifts can also be long-lasting, with concomitant
impacts on human economies and societies (Briggs et al.
2009). Some ecosystems may be highly vulnerable to change
when subjected to the synergistic effects of two or more
disturbances with a combined impact greater than the sum
of their separate effects (Folke et al. 2004). An example is a
pastureland that is exposed to the combined effects of drought
and overgrazing, leading to alterations in soils, biodiversity
and productivity, and resulting in a new ecosystem with
different structural and functional characteristics. This is
an example of gradual changes in feedbacks (Wysham and
Hastings 2008; Levin 1998). In contrast, the shift of an
ecosystem from one state to another can also result from
catastrophic or extreme external perturbations (van Nes and
Scheffer 2007), as illustrated below.
Three examples of regime shifts are shown in Figure 7.2. The
first shows how the synergistic effect of drought and bark
beetle infestation in northern New Mexico, United States,
led to a high mortality of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa),
which was replaced by a pion-juniper woodland and was
thus manifested as a loss of forested area. This is one of the

most rapid landscape-scale regime shifts recorded (Allen and
Breshears 1998).
The second example is also rapid, but the underlying cause is
quite different. de Young et al. (2008) illustrated the effects of
interactions between organisms. A species-specific pathogen
on Caribbean coral reefs caused mass mortalities of sea
urchins in the early 1980s. Urchin densities dropped to 1 per
cent of their original level, which in turn enabled brown fleshy
algae, no longer subject to grazing, to overgrow the reef. The
reef community had undergone a regime shift. The new state
persisted in some areas for more than 20 years, although the
shift had occurred within one or two years for both the trigger
(the pathogen) and the algal dominance.
Brown et al. (1997) described a shift from a grass- to a
shrub-dominated ecosystem over a period of about ten
years in a semi-arid site in southern Arizona, United States.
The single factor driving this was a slowly changing driver:
seasonal precipitation. Winter precipitation favoured the
expansion of woody shrubs over grass species, giving rise
to the extinction of several animal species and increases in
other previously rare ones.
Figure 7.2 Examples of regime shifts resulting from different drivers and feedbacks
Synergistic factors in New Mexico
Interactions on a Caribbean coral reef
Forested area, %
Mean number of shrubs per 0.25-hectare plot

300
Number of sea urchins per m2
50
A single factor in southern Arizona
10
250
40
200
1.0
30
150
20
100
0.1
Grazed
Ungrazed
10
1930
50
0
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990 1975
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
Note: Establishing that the grazed and ungrazed areas in southern Arizona were equally aected by
changes in precipitation patterns helped to eliminate grazing as a factor influencing the regime shift.
Sources: de Young et al. 2008 (Caribbean); Allen and Breshears 1998 (New Mexico); Brown et al. 1997 (Arizona)
198
EARTH SYSTEM CHANGES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR

HUMAN WELL-BEING
The key Earth System changes discussed above have impacts

on the environment, on economies and on societies. Illustrative
and by no means comprehensive examples of these impacts
follow, showing the interconnectedness of the Earth System
and the effects that human activities and environmental change
have at all scales.
Polar regions
Many of the complex changes in global environmental conditions

tend to amplify in the polar regions. For example, heat flux from
the lower latitudes leads to accelerating melt of sea ice as well as
a loss of mass in Arctic glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic
ice sheets, all of which contribute to global sea level rise.
There are many ways in which the polar regions affect the lower
latitudes and the whole globe.
The Arctic
As shown in Figure 7.3, the Arctic region has experienced the
largest increase in surface temperatures in recent decades
(shown in red). This amplification of global warming has been
confirmed by instrumental records and reconstruction of
past climates, and has been demonstrated in climate model
simulations (Serreze and Barry 2011).
The amplification is caused by several factors including heat

transport to the Arctic (Graversen et al. 2008); melt of sea
ice (Screen and Simmonds 2010) enhanced by black carbon
depositions on snow (Hansen and Nazarenko 2004) and a
corresponding reduction in albedo; an increase in long-wave
(infrared) energy emitted downward by the atmosphere (Francis
and Hunter 2006); and an increase in heat-absorbing black
carbon aerosols in the atmosphere (Chapter 2) (Shindell and
Faluvegi 2009). The rapid shrinking of Arctic sea-ice cover is part
of the positive climate feedback. In addition to the reduction
in the area covered by ice over the past 30 years, as shown by
satellite data, substantial loss is also taking place in the oldest
and thickest ice (Maslanik et al. 2011). The disappearance of
sea ice, which acts as a thermal insulator between the ocean
and atmosphere, results in an enhanced upward heat flux that
warms the lower troposphere in the Arctic, affecting the general
atmospheric circulation in a significant part of the northern
hemisphere (Serreze and Barry 2011; WWF 2010). This alters
storm tracks, precipitation patterns and the conditions that
lead to heat waves and cold spells. For example, the emerging
atmospheric pattern of a warm Arctic Ocean and cold continents
favours more frequent and severe Arctic air outbreaks during the
cold season (Petoukhov and Semenov 2010), affecting the wellbeing of hundreds of millions of people living in the mid-latitudes
of the northern hemisphere.
Figure 7.3 Observed change in annual mean surface air temperature, 19602009
Change in annual mean surface air temperature, C

-1.0
-0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.5
1.0
2.0
4.0
4.1 No data
Source: Serreze and Barry 2011 based

on NASA GISS temperature analysis
(http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp).
199
The Arctic Councils Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the

Arctic assessment (SWIPA 2011) shows that temperatures in the
permafrost have risen by as much as 2oC over the past two to
three decades, particularly at colder sites. Warming in the Arctic
causes permafrost thaw and loss (Lawrence et al. 2008), as seen
in the increased depth of seasonally thawing soil above the
permafrost in Scandinavia, Arctic Russia west of the Urals, and
inland Alaska; the 3080 km northward retreat of the southern
limit of permafrost in Russia between 1970 and 2005; and the
130 km retreat in Quebec, Canada, during the past 50 years
(ACIA 2004). A regional process of permafrost thawing supports
increased microbial activity and is likely to lead to the release
of carbon that is currently locked up in frozen soils (Tarnocai et
al. 2009), initiating a global positive climate feedback (Schaefer
et al. 2011). It is possible that by 2030 the Arctic will become a
carbon source rather than a carbon sink (Schaefer et al. 2011).
The warming and opening of Arctic waters also has implications
for the accessibility of hydrocarbons and other natural resources
(Stephenson et al. 2011). The production of oil and gas and
increased shipping could turn the Arctic into an area of rapid
industrial development, leading to additional anthropogenic
emissions of carbon. This is another example of a positive
climate feedback, involving both natural influences (the
greenhouse effect) and social ones (human activities).
Another unexpected manifestation of the global and regional
links in the Earth System was observed in the Arctic in boreal
spring 2011. An unprecedented stratospheric ozone loss
of approximately 80 per cent at altitudes of 1820 km was
attributed by Manney et al. (2011) to anomalously long-lasting
cold conditions in the Arctics lower stratosphere, which in turn
led to a persistent enhancement of the atmospheric content of
ozone-destroying forms of chlorine.
The Antarctic and the Southern Ocean
This remote region is still poorly understood and there is limited
capacity to observe the highly complex Earth System interactions
that take place there. Numerous observations show that Southern
Ocean waters are warming more rapidly than the global ocean
average. Warming of intermediate waters was reported by Gille
(2002), while a comparison of ship and float observations showed
widespread warming and freshening of the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current waters (Bning et al. 2008). Abyssal and deep-water
measurements also indicate warming trends (Purkey and Johnson
2010). A profound peculiarity of this region is the stratospheric
ozone hole, which has had a significant impact on the Antarctic
environment over the last 30 years, altering the main regional
pattern of climate variability, the Southern Annular Mode and
associated winds, which tend to shield large parts of the continent,
except the Antarctic Peninsula, from greenhouse-gas induced
warming (Turner et al. 2009; Thompson and Solomon 2002).
The Antarctic is the Earths largest frozen store of freshwater, with
the potential to cause sea level rise equivalent to 61.1 metres
(IPCC 2001). While significant parts of the Antarctic ice sheet rest
on land, these areas are still below the current mean sea level. For
200
example, the ice body of the West Antarctic ice sheet is in many
places more than 1000 metres below the ocean surface. Recent
estimates indicate a potential contribution to global sea level
of 3.3 metres by this ice (Bamber et al. 2009). Recent airborne
geophysical measurements over previously unexplored areas of
the East Antarctic ice sheet (Young et al. 2011) have shown that it
too is largely resting below sea level. There are therefore concerns
about marine ice sheet stability in a rapidly warming climate.
While recent regional temperature trends in Antarctica have not
been very significant and in some locations negative, the Faraday/
Vernadsky Station in the northwestern part of the Antarctic
Peninsula has observed an increase of 0.53oC per decade for the
period 19512006 (Turner et al. 2009). This local warming and
the accompanying changes in winds are considered to be the main
causes of the collapse of the Larsen ice shelves A in 1995 and B
in 2002. The potential destruction or accelerated melt of the West
Antarctic ice sheet under current warming is a subject of intensive
research (Huybrechts 2009; Pollard and DeConto 2009).
As a general rule, when atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase,
the oceans tend to absorb more of it. However, in the Southern
Ocean, which represents a significant fraction of the global ocean
carbon sink (Takahashi et al. 2009), there is a declining ability
to absorb CO2 (Le Qur et al. 2007). One of the likely reasons
for this is a 1520 per cent intensification of the circumpolar
westerly winds over the Southern Ocean since the 1970s, which
can be partially attributed to the effects of the stratospheric
ozone hole (Thompson and Solomon 2002). This phenomenon
also has important implications for Antarctic biodiversity (Box 7.3).
Box 7.3 Antarctic biodiversity

The Antarctic Large Marine Ecosystem is characterized by a
rather short food web linking phytoplankton at lower trophic
levels to Antarctic krill, on which fish, squid, baleen whales,
seals, penguins and seabirds all feed (Hill et al. 2006). There
was uncontrolled, or poorly regulated, harvesting of seals,
whales and fish in the period up until the 1980s (Sherman
and Hempel 2008). Seals, whales and seabirds were the initial
targets of harvesting, but as stocks of these were depleted
attention moved to fish, then krill, and finally to crabs and
squid. Because much of the earlier exploitation happened
rather rapidly and resulted in a series of catastrophic stock
collapses of key organisms, there must have been severe
ecological consequences (Nicol and Robertson 2006). A
precautionary approach to the management of the krill
fishery was adopted by the Convention for the Conservation
of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), which came
into force in 1982, as an interim measure during development
of its preferred approach, which includes enhancement of
ecosystem monitoring; further evolution of models linking
krill, their predators, environmental influences and the
fishery; and high-resolution, real-time information about the
behaviour of fishing vessels (Hewitt et al. 2001).
The ensemble of climate-chemistry models of the World Climate

Research Programme Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project
(CCMVal2) indicates that complete recovery of the stratospheric
ozone layer resulting from implementation of the Montreal
Protocol should occur around the middle of this century (Eyring
et al. 2010). However, the ozone layer restoration may affect the
Southern Annual Mode and associated winds, weakening the
currently existing restraint on greenhouse gas-induced warming
in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (Turner et al. 2009), and
potentially leading to other significant local-to-global changes.
Implications for human well-being
The patterns of change in the polar regions and their links with
activities and impacts elsewhere on the globe illustrate the
archetypical pattern of vulnerability described in GEO-4 (UNEP
2007) as misusing the global commons. This misuse leads
to the exposure of people and the environment to resource
depletion, for example dwindling fisheries or land in the case
of sea level rise, and to environmental transformations such as
climate change and sea level rise. Those who are most vulnerable
to changes resulting from misuse of the global commons are
usually not responsible for the misuse itself.
From an Earth System perspective, the ongoing and potential
future changes of the polar regions given the sometimes long
timescales, the interconnections with the rest of the globe, the
interactions between problem areas like stratospheric ozone
recovery and global warming, and possible catastrophic events
such as the melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet point to the
need for holistic responses to managing the global commons in
order to reduce the vulnerability of people and the environment
to potentially very large pressures.
The Hindu Kush-Himalaya
The Hindu Kush-Himalaya (Figure 7.4), sometimes referred

to as the Third Pole, is one of the most dynamic and complex
mountain systems in the world. It contains the largest amount
of snow and ice found outside the polar regions, including more
than 100000 km2 of glacier cover, and the sources of ten of the
largest rivers in Asia. This mountain system, stretching 3500 km
through some of the worlds wettest and driest environments,
rising 8 km vertically through nearly every life zone existing on
Earth, and at the geographical centre of the largest and densest
concentration of humans, is recognized as an extremely fragile
environment and particularly vulnerable to global warming
(Bates et al. 2008; Xu et al. 2007).
Victims of the worst floods to hit Pakistan in several years walk

through water-filled streets in the northwestern city of Nowshera.
Amjad Jamal/UN Photo
and powerfully changing the ecological and socio-economic

landscape in the Himalayan region. This is particularly true
in relation to water and ecosystem services, with significant
implications for mountain communities and livelihoods, as
well as downstream users, especially women who, for instance,
often need to trek longer distances for potable water and fuel
(UNEP 2011b). In mountain areas, however, the influence of the
changing climate has to be understood in the frame of overall
changes due to modernization communication, transport,
infrastructure, monetization and others and migration (CIDA
2002), which alters traditional gender relations.
Extreme vulnerability to natural hazards in the countries of

South Asia is cyclical and repeatedly causes major setbacks in
the socio-economic and equitable development of the region.
Climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and
magnitude of extreme weather events that lead to disasters, and
calls for speedy action (Cruz et al. 2007).

Climate change impacts in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region and
downstream are particularly severe due to the large number
of people depending on climate-sensitive livelihoods such as
agriculture. Here, more than 20 per cent live below the poverty
line, amounting to around 260 million people. The International
Food Policy Research Institute concluded that the negative
impact of climate change on world cereal production may vary
from 0.6 per cent to 0.9 per cent per year, but that in South Asia
the impact could be as high as 18.222.1 per cent by 2080 (von
Braun 2007). Recent studies conclude that the Himalayan region
and its downstream areas, including the Indo-Gangetic plains,
the grain basket of South Asia, are also particularly vulnerable to
climate change (Ma et al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009; Bates et al. 2008;
Cruz et al. 2007; Beniston 2003; Nijssen et al. 2001).
Uncertainties about the rate and magnitude of climate change

and its potential impacts prevail, but there is no question that
climate change is one of the many pressures that are gradually
Poor and marginalized groups such as mountain populations

and the inhabitants of downstream flood plains are particularly
vulnerable to climate change. The rough topography of the
201
Figure 7.4 Recent flood events in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region
Dushanbe
CHINA
TAJIKISTAN
Kabul
AFGHANISTAN
NEPAL
New Delhi
hi
PAKISTAN
Karachi
BANGLADESH
INDIA
Dhaka
MYANMAR
Hindu KushHimalaya region
LAOS
Mumbai
Glaciers
Lakes
THAILAND
Main rivers
Number of people involved

in flood events, 20082010
Killed
1 000
300
50
10
Aected
(Thousands)
Note: Data for people killed or aected may not have been available for all flood events.
Himalayas combined with the precariousness of many homesteads

on low incomes, makes the region a particularly flood-sensitive
area, with mudslides and unstable ground (Figure 7.4) serious
threats to settlement areas. Moreover, the risks of death and
destruction are increased by the fact that people, after floods,
often rebuild on the same risk-prone areas.
Mountain livelihoods are much more susceptible to
environmental and economic upheaval than are livelihoods in the
plains, and poverty in the mountains is exacerbated by climate
change (ICIMOD 2010b). Women, in particular, are vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation
(ICIMOD 2009; Plmper and Neemayer 2007).
202
Source: ICIMOD 2010a
The Amazon
The Amazon forest is an extremely important component of

the Earth System. It is the repository of the greatest terrestrial
diversity of organisms on Earth (Cochrane and Barber 2009; Foley
et al. 2007), it exchanges vast amounts of water and energy with
the atmosphere and thus affects local and regional climates (da
Rocha et al. 2009), and it is a major carbon sink and reservoir
containing 90 billion tonnes of carbon (Chao et al. 2009). This is
about a fifth of the total carbon contained in the worlds tropical
forests (Pan et al. 2011; Chao et al. 2009).
The Amazon has recently experienced two once-in-a-century
droughts in the space of five years 2005 and 2010. Both
events caused rapid, widespread tree mortality leading to large

increases in carbon emissions in undisturbed regions that are
normally net carbon sinks (Lewis et al. 2011; Phillips et al. 2009).
Even under declining deforestation rates, droughts increase
vulnerability to fires by enhancing forest flammability and fire
spread (Arago et al. 2007). According to model simulations
by Vergara and Scholz (2010), in a zero-deforestation scenario
the effect of climate change alone, which is predominantly
driven by fossil-fuel emissions, could reduce the extent of the
Amazon biome by one-third by 2100. But when the effects
of deforestation and fire are combined with those of climate
change, the models show a much greater reduction.
Deforestation in general, and in the Amazon in particular, is a
product of the interactions of multiple socio-economic factors
(Chapter 3) in addition to the natural factors discussed above.
The largest of these by far is conversion to cattle pasture to
satisfy growing international demand for beef (Zaks et al.
2009). As discussed in Chapter 3, there remains a basis for
optimism regarding the future of the Amazon. For example,
Brazils governmental Action Plan for Prevention and Control
of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm) coordinates a set
of government initiatives focused on three goals: monitoring
and law enforcement, land tenure regularization, and fostering
alternatives for sustainable land use.
Western Australias rabbit-proof fence separates native vegetation

(east) from farmland and pastures (west). There are more clouds on
the darker eastern side of the fence where native vegetation grows.
Source: Pielke et al. 2011

In addition to its importance in regulating the global climate
through acting as a carbon sink, the Amazon also provides
livelihoods for both indigenous peoples and recent settlers
(Parry 2008). Foley et al. (2007) note that the Amazon system
regulates freshwater and river flows, modulates regional climate
patterns and controls the spread of vector-borne and water-borne
diseases, all of which are crucial to human well-being. Farmers
in the Amazon are vulnerable to climate change through the
effects of drought, flood and fire on planting times, the spread
of disease, and impacts on food, water and human security
(Brondizio and Moran 2008).
Drylands
Desertification or land degradation in drylands is one of the

greatest environmental challenges facing human society
(Chapter 3). The worlds drylands arid, semi-arid and dry
sub-humid climatic regions, ranging from deserts to steppes
and savannahs cover approximately 40 per cent of the worlds
land surface area and are home to nearly 2 billion people
(Ezcurra 2006). Degradation of a landscape is a particularly
complex problem because it involves a tight coupling of socioeconomic, meteorological and ecological processes (Reynolds
and Stafford Smith 2002).
Western Australia
One example of how changes in land cover can affect the
regional climate in an arid zone is the rabbit-proof fence in
Western Australia, built to prevent rabbits from damaging
cropland and pastures. The fence spans more than 750 km
and separates native vegetation to the east from 13 million
hectares of cropland to the west. It did little to protect the

crops from rabbits, but it illustrates how vegetation affects
climate: there are more clouds and it rains more frequently
on the east side of the fence where native vegetation remains
(see photo). Several plausible explanations are provided by
Nair et al. (2011), who measured numerous physical and
biological variables on both sides of the fence. They found
that these variables differed substantially throughout the
year on the agricultural side of the fence whereas only small
seasonal variations were found over the native vegetation. Nair
and colleagues concluded that the darker surface and greater
roughness of the native vegetation resulted in an enhanced
heat flux into the atmosphere, which increases the chances
of cloud formation. Since measurements began in the 1970s,
rainfall observations show about a 20 per cent decline in winter
rainfall, confined mainly to agricultural areas.
The Sahel
The Sahel is a large semi-arid region that runs east-west across
Africa south of the Sahara, and extends through ten countries.
Rainfall is extremely variable and predominantly driven by two
major, and undoubtedly interacting, factors: patterns in global
sea surface temperature (Biasutti et al. 2008) and large-scale
changes in land cover that impact land-atmosphere interactions
(Huber et al. 2011). The role of rainfall variability and vegetation
dynamics in the Sahel has been the subject of many high-profile
studies, and is particularly important because the population of
Sahelian countries is projected to quadruple by 2020 relative to
its population of 19 million in 1960 (Brown and Crawford 2009).
203
Almost 6000 years ago the Sahel was covered by grasslands and
shrublands (Prentice and Jolly 2000; Hoelzmann et al. 1998),
with records of marine sediments and archaeological evidence
showing a switch to arid conditions thereafter (Foley et al. 2003;
de Menocal et al. 2000). More recently, there has been a marked
shift from relatively wetter conditions with higher rainfall in the
1950s and 1960s to drier conditions in the 1970s and 1980s,
followed by a general trend in increasing precipitation throughout
the Sahelian region over the past 30 years (Huber et al. 2011),
leading to what is generally referred to as a greening trend.
Huber et al. (2011), however, demonstrate the complexity of this
trend, since vegetation changes are not always directly related to
precipitation changes.
In the case of Western Australia, land-use change brought
unintended consequences. As well as the decrease in rainfall, the
removal of deep-rooted native vegetation also led to a rise in the
water table, increasing the surface salinity of the farmland and,
hence, further decreasing agricultural productivity. As humans
continue to clear land for agriculture a paradox is in the making:
while food production may increase in the short run, it may be
seriously decreased in the long run (Noticewala 2007).
Another consequence of the widespread clearance of native
vegetation in Australia for cattle raising and farming was its
impact on indigenous peoples who had relied on previously
abundant wildlife for their traditional diets. Many groups
had little choice but to work on cattle stations and adapt to
European foods (Kouris-Blazos and Wahlqvist 2000). This has
had a detrimental impact on their nutritional status and wellbeing, leading to chronic diseases associated with obesity
(Wolfenden et al. 2011).
Subsistence agriculture is the main source of household
livelihoods in many parts of Africa, especially in dryland regions
such as the Sahel (Kumssa and Jones 2010). This constitutes a
serious food security risk given the complex feedbacks between
human activities, land cover and climate. The African Partnership
Forum (APF 2007) estimates that 75250 million people living in
the African drylands will be affected by climate change.
Although a greening of the Sahel region is observed, rainfall in the
Western part of the region has not increased (Huber et al. 2011). A
study by Mertz et al. (2010) of 1249 households in five Sahelian
countries with annual rainfall ranging from 400 to 900 mm, found
that climate factors, mainly inadequate rainfall, are believed by
3050 per cent of households to be a cause of decreasing rain-fed
crop production, whereas a wide range of other factors, such as
changes of land tenure, was held responsible for the remaining
5070 per cent. The differences between the rain-fed crop and
livestock sectors, as well as between the driest and wettest zones
studied by Mertz et al. (2010), illustrate the difficulty faced by
people on the agricultural margins in the driest part of the Sahel
who are trying to develop their rain-fed agriculture. Adaptation to
climate change in the drylands will have to take these complex
interactions into account.
204
Fires
The majority of global biomass burning occurs in the tropics where

there are cycles of drought and exceptionally wet years (Liu et al.
2010; van der Werf et al. 2008; Goldammer and de Ronde 2004).
The African continent has the highest occurrence of vegetation
fires, accounting for an estimated 3050 per cent of the total
annual biomass burned globally (Roberts and Wooster 2008;
Dwyer et al. 2000).
Large and uncontrolled fires have increased in the recent past
on all vegetated continents and have caused tens of billions
of US dollars of damage (Bowman et al. 2009). Evidence from
the United States and from Canada (Figure 7.5) shows that fire
extent in both countries increased significantly over the 20th
century. In the western United States, the frequency of large
fires has increased nearly fourfold and the extent more than
sixfold since the mid-1980s (USGCRP 2009). Recent fires in the
Canadian and Alaskan tundra are unprecedented in the last
5000 years (Hessl 2011). Satellite observations demonstrate
a strongly non-linear relationship between climate and human
activity: droughts result in more rapid deforestation while
also reducing the fire buffering effect of peatland water tables,
thereby increasing ecosystem vulnerability to fire (van der
Werf et al. 2008). Projecting future fire dynamics is challenging
because of the non-linearities in the various causal factors
(Hessl 2011; Flannigan et al. 2009; van der Werf et al. 2008)
and the unresolved question of whether direct human activity
or climate change plays a more dominant role in general
(Bowman et al. 2009).
Among the significant effects of fires on human well-being are
the destruction of assets such as homes (Bowman et al. 2009);
effects on human health and mortality, as demonstrated by
the fires in Russia in 2010; and the lost livelihoods of rural
resource-dependent communities, as experienced, for example,
in Lebanon in 2007 (IUCN 2008). In addition, the continuation
or exacerbation of current global fire trends would have serious
Vermilion River, British Columbia, Canada, the aftermath of a forest fire

that devastated the area three years prior. Bruce Smith/iStock
Shale gas basins
Figure 7.5 Forest fires in Canada, 1920-1999
New proven technologies such as directional drilling and

hydraulic fracturing have made the extraction of natural gas
from low permeability geologic formations (shale formations)
economically viable. These practices have accelerated the
construction of new natural gas wells and their accompanying
infrastructure pipelines, roads, compressor stations and
evaporation ponds and led to extensive land fragmentation
and disturbance, degraded air quality, and degraded surfaceand groundwater quality. In parts of both the eastern and
western United States, there has been rapid growth in the pace
of development as new geologic targets become economical
to drill using new technologies. Although to date such shale
gas extraction has primarily taken place in the United States,
it is expected to reach other parts of the world (Figure 7.6) as
use of the new technology expands, and as changing access,
profitability compared to other gas resources, and shale gas
characteristics make it viable (Kuuskraa and Stevens 2009).
Anomaly relative to the 19202000 average

1.0
Area burned relative to the baseline,
hundred thousand km2
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Gillett et al. 2004/American Geophysical Union
consequences for the enormous amounts of carbon stored

in forests and other ecosystems, potentially unleashing an
amplifying climate-carbon feedback and increasing the risk of
dangerous climate change.
While substituting the burning of coal with natural gas leads to

emission reductions and may have some local air quality benefits
(Howarth et al. 2011), the impacts on air quality near concentrated
natural gas development can be quite severe due to the release of
hazardous air pollutants such as benzene, ozone-forming precursors
and fugitive dust, among others. More broadly, such fuel switching,
along with the continuing large-scale development and use of
unconventional fossil fuels like shale gas, is likely to exacerbate
human-induced climate change because the methane emissions
are at least 30 per cent higher than from conventional gas (Howarth
et al. 2011; Wigley 2011). Furthermore, evaporation ponds used for
Figure 7.6 World shale gas basins identified by the US Energy Information Agency
Assessed and quantified basins

Assessed basins
Countries within scope of report
Countries outside scope of report
Source: EIA 2011
205
the disposal of produced water or coal seam gas water in the

western United States have recently been found to be major sources
of volatile organic and hazardous air pollutants (USEPA 2009).
The impacts of natural gas development on water resources are
also broad-ranging, including the contamination of groundwater
aquifers with potentially explosive levels of methane (Osborn
et al. 2011), of surface- and groundwater with chlorides, metals
and organic compounds, and of streams where produced water
is discharged (Johnson et al. 2008), alongside high rates of
consumptive water use for the drilling and completion of wells.
The complex nature of many of the geologic formations from
which natural gas is recovered may lead to many unknown
impacts on groundwater resources. This is of particular concern
because of the huge volume of shale gas deposits worldwide (EIA
2011; IEA 2011).
Impacts on human well-being
The chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing, as well as related
surface water contamination and air pollution, are thought to
be harmful to human health (Finkel and Law 2011).
OVERSHOOT
Scientific understanding of the functioning of the Earth System

and recent changes in it indicate a risk of crossing thresholds or
tipping points, which would lead to fundamental state changes
with major implications for human societies. Such shifts might
include the transformation of rainforest to savannah or of hard to
soft coral reefs, and changes in rainfall patterns (Box 7.2). The risk
of abrupt changes causing regional to global impacts captured
Box 7.4 The ecological footprint

An ecological footprint measures the area of biologically
productive land and water that a population uses, with current
technology, to generate the resources it consumes and to
absorb its wastes. Kitzes et al. (2008) compared the ecological
footprint with available biocapacity, the amount of biologically
productive area available to a population within a defined
geographical area. Figure 7.7 shows that in North America
and Western Europe the footprint exceeds biocapacity. Kitzes
et al. (2008) concluded that if everyone in the world had an
ecological footprint equivalent to that of the typical North
American or Western European, global society would overshoot
the planets biocapacity three- to fivefold. Central and Eastern
Europe together live within the biocapacity available in that
region, but with a per-person level of consumption that cannot
be sustainably adopted at a global scale. Conversely, the
Asia and Pacific region lives beyond the biocapacity available
within its borders, but with a per-person ecological footprint
that would not cause overshoot if extended globally. Residents
of Africa, on average, use less than the biocapacity available
per person either regionally or globally.
in such concepts as tipping elements (Schellnhuber 2009) and

planetary boundaries (Rockstrm et al. 2009a) is a relatively
recent insight from Earth System science. These frameworks
Figure 7.7 The ecological footprint and biocapacity of regions, 2002

Global hectares per person
10
Biocapacity
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Global biocapacity
available per person
2
1
0
North America
Western Europe
Central and
Eastern Europe
Note: A global hectare is a theoretical hectare of surface area with average global productivity.
206
Middle East
and Central Asia
Latin America
Asia and
the Pacific
Africa
Source: Kitzes et al. 2008
Figure 7.8 Global material extraction, 19002005

Material extraction, billion tonnes
60
Ores and industrial minerals

Fossil fuels
Construction minerals
Biomass
40
20
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Source: Krausmann et al. 2009
for global sustainability complement previous concepts such

as limits to growth, carrying capacity, ecological footprint and
overshoot, which have in common an estimate of stocks of natural
resources and critical loads of different pollutants predominantly
in relation to health. Underlying all of these descriptors are
different methods and assumptions for identifying points at which
the ability of the Earth System to absorb anthropogenic changes
is exceeded. While these methods and assumptions are still being
discussed in the scientific literature, their conclusions all point
in the same direction: thresholds in the Earth System are being
reached and the consequences are significant.
Forty years ago, Meadows et al. (1972) argued in The Limits to
Growth that unchecked consumption and economic growth on
a finite planet were leading the Earth towards overshoot of its
carrying capacity, which would be followed by major impacts
on the global economy. Hall and Day (2009) looked back at
the conclusions of this study and found that its warnings were
generally correct. Turner (2008) compared historical data for
19702000 with scenarios presented in The Limits to Growth and
found that 30 years of historical data compared favourably with
key features of the business-as-usual scenario, which results in
collapse of the global system midway through the 21st century.
The ecological footprint (Chapter 5) is used to understand human
demand on the biosphere and the Earths biocapacity. While
there is still a need for improved data, humanitys ecological
footprint overall has doubled since 1966, with major regional
disparities (WWF 2010). Box 7.4 and Figure 7.7 show the
significant regional differences in both footprint and available
biocapacity, indicating which regions use more biocapacity
than is available. Of significance with regard to overshoot is the
ecological footprint of megacities.
Another approach that points to Earth System limits looks at

resource use (UNEP 2011a). Material flow accounting, which
quantifies all materials used in economic activities, accounts for
the total material mobilized during extraction and for the materials
actually used in economic processes measured in terms of their
mass (tonnes). At the beginning of the 21st century, estimates
of the quantity of global raw materials extracted ranged between
47 and 59 billion tonnes per year (Figure 7.8 shows the higher
estimates), with global annual material extraction having increased
by a factor of eight during the 20th century (UNEP 2011a). Three
scenarios developed by UNEP (2011a) all demonstrate that without
significant improvements in resource productivity, it will not be
possible to meet the needs of 9 billion people by 2050.
Recognizing interactions and non-linear dynamics within
the Earth System, the concept of planetary boundaries was
introduced by Rockstrm et al. (2009a) to identify those
key environmental processes that provide humanity with
a safe operating space for well-being. Rockstrm et al.
(2009b) identified nine planetary processes and proposed
safe boundaries for seven of them climate change, rate
of biodiversity loss, the nitrogen and phosphorous cycle,
stratospheric ozone depletion, ocean acidification, global
freshwater use and change in land use. The proposed boundary
position was placed at what was considered to be a safe distance
from the risk of critical feedbacks and non-linear shifts that could
trigger deleterious changes in critical environmental systems
(Figure 7.9). The safe position for a process was based on an
assessment of the current state of science, acknowledging that
there is and will always be an uncertainty range for environmental
risks. The safe boundary level for each environmental process
was selected for the lower end of this scientific uncertainty range
to reflect a precautionary approach (Rockstrm et al. 2009a,
207
Figure 7.9 Conceptual description of planetary

boundaries where the boundary is set to avoid the
crossing of a critical threshold in an Earth System
process
Response variable (e.g. extent of land ice)
Planetary boundary
Safe
operating
space
Threshold
Zone
of
uncertainty
Control variable (e.g. CO2 ppm)

Source: Stockholm Resilience Centre 2009
2009b). The boundaries relate to rates and processes driven by

human activities and not to resource scarcities.
The planetary boundaries framework indicates that
environmental challenges at the global scale go well beyond
climate change. Furthermore, evidence indicates that the
processes analysed interact: transgressing one safe boundary
may affect the distance from others. For example, expanding
agricultural land may undermine the climate change boundary by
increasing carbon emissions from terrestrial ecosystems. While
the specific numbers used in the planetary boundaries analysis
may be challenged (Nature 2009), the approach provides input
to the debate about overshoot: early analyses indicate that
humanity has already transgressed three boundaries climate
change, the rate of biodiversity loss, and global interference with
the nitrogen cycle (Rockstrom et al. 2009b). A recent follow-up
on human interference with the phosphorous cycle indicates that
the phosphorous boundary has also been exceeded in freshwater
systems (Carpenter and Bennett 2011).
Ecosystems are essential for human well-being through their

provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services (TEEB
2010; MA 2005). Human well-being refers to the extent to which
individuals have the ability to live the kind of lives they value
and the opportunities to achieve their potential (UNEP 2007),
and is determined by a range of factors including access to
resources, not just financial ones, security, good health and
social relations (Introduction). All of these factors are affected
208
by changes in the Earth System. Global interconnectedness in

the human-environment system also means that well-being in
one place may be affected by practices elsewhere. Chapters
26 provide examples of how changes in subsystems of the
Earth System affect well-being, although they generally refer
to aspects such as food and water security rather than assets,
social cohesion and personal security.
From an Earth System perspective, it is important to consider the
consequences for human well-being of exceeding the planets
carrying capacity or entering periods of abrupt and irreversible
change. As shown in the examples below, the impacts of
complex, non-linear changes in the Earth System are already
having serious consequences for human well-being.
Multiple and interacting drivers affect human security
Climate variability and extreme weather influence food security.
These drivers are complex and involve different pathways
(regional water scarcity, salinization of agricultural lands,
destruction of crops through flood events, disruption of food
logistics through disasters, and increased burden of infectious
plant diseases or pests) (IPCC 2007).
Crossing thresholds: significant health impacts
Land-use change and deforestation alter habitats by raising local
temperatures and removing shade, changes that can facilitate
the rapid development of malaria vectors (da Silva-Nunes et al.
2008; Afrane et al. 2005). Pascual et al. (2006) demonstrated
the importance of the well-recognized non-linear and threshold
responses of malaria (a biological system) to the effect of
regional temperature change.
Unprecedented events affect assets and human security
Climate change already undermines human security and will
do so increasingly in the future, by reducing access to, and
the quality of, natural resources that are important to sustain
livelihoods (Barnett and Adger 2007). In Bangladesh, for
example, a significant number of people are affected every year
by riverbank erosion and floods that lead to loss of agricultural
land, infrastructure and communication systems. These assets
are essential for maintaining livelihoods (Poncelet et al. 2010).
Rapid change and indigenous communities
As discussed, the Arctic is warming faster than elsewhere on the
planet. Since 1975, temperatures in Alaska have increased by
an average of 2.03.5oC. Approximately 200 indigenous villages
along the navigable waters of Alaskas coasts and rivers are
threatened by accelerated rates of erosion or flooding, and five
communities have concluded that relocation is the only solution.
Studies show that displacement has considerable cultural,
social, economic and psychological impacts (Bronen 2010).
TRANSITIONS AND SYSTEMIC RESPONSES TO EARTH

SYSTEM CHALLENGES
Earth System challenges have been characterized as persistent

problems of unsustainability that are complex, ill-structured,
involve many stakeholders, are surrounded by structural
uncertainties, and are hard to manage (Rotmans 2006).

Persistent problems tend to reappear when only their symptoms
are treated or when the measures taken are only marginal and
incremental, and thus inadequate to deal with root causes. For
each of the different issues discussed in Chapters 26 climate
change, land degradation, biodiversity loss, water security and
chemical pollution symptoms of unsustainability mask deeper
underlying problems in societal structures and institutions.
The persistence of the problems is due to what Rotmans (2006)
refers to as system failures:
institutional system failures a predominance of institutions
that block innovation;
economic system failures inadequate market development
or lack of investment capital;
social system failures entrenched behaviour;
ecological system failures regime shifts described earlier in
this chapter.
moment of take-off is often recognized, tipping the system over

a point of no return (Frantzeskaki and de Haan 2009).
Transition management
Addressing these system failures requires new, innovative

forms of governance, including transition management (Chapter
16) (Grin et al. 2010). Ultimately, ignoring these systemic
failures will result in non-linear, systemic and fundamental
changes in the composition and functioning of the societal
system, with changes in structures, cultures and practices
(Loorbach and Rotmans 2010).
Transitional change is different from normal or gradual societal
change, as shown in Figure 7.10, and occurs in four phases:
pre-development, take-off, acceleration and stabilization.
Between the pre-development and acceleration phases, a
Figure 7.10 Transition phases

Takeo
Acceleration
Stabilization
System indicators
Predevelopment
Reducing large vessels in certain areas in Chile provided an innovative

solution to fisheries management. Joris Van Ostaeyen
Time
Source: Frantzeskaki and de Haan 2009
Historical transitions, such as the post-1950 emergence of personal

mobility, intensive agriculture or fossil energy infrastructure, were
partly driven by the promise of solving societal problems such as
poverty, inequality, lack of education and so on. However, these
transitions have, in turn, produced their own problems. While
individuals might now have access to cheap energy and mobility,
the results are pollution, resource exploitation and congestion.
The challenge in dealing with complex and persistent modern
problems is to find new ways of dealing with them in a more
anticipatory and exploratory manner. It is necessary to improve
understanding of the dynamics of complex processes of change
and try to influence their pace and direction.
A more thorough understanding of the forces that drive societal
transitions is essential in policy making for the Earth System
(Frantzeskaki and de Haan 2009). While current mainstream
policy and research approaches predominantly seek to improve
existing systems, leading to gradual improvement, transitions
thinking requires a fundamental shift. The current trend of
marginal improvements and optimization of existing systems
leads to lock-ins not only in technological systems but also
in policy and consequently social systems (Frantzeskaki and
Loorbach 2010) that divert society from sustainability. Escaping
such lock-ins requires radical shifts transformative changes
(Chapters 16 and 17) that fundamentally alter structures,
cultures and practices to achieve sustainability in the long term.
As transitions are increasingly likely to occur given the
instabilities in both socio-economic and ecological systems,
it is crucial that strategies be developed to influence these
transitions effectively in terms of their speed and direction
(Loorbach et al. 2011; Loorbach and Rotmans 2006). While
steering a transition in a command-and-control manner is not
workable, it is possible to influence a transition by using various
approaches, including coordinating existing social movements,
niche-innovations and new practices in general. The importance
209
Box 7.5 Innovative response to a crisis
approaches to problem solving are not flexible enough to address

complex, non-linear and rapidly changing situations effectively.
In Chile, a combination of fisheries collapse and the move

to democracy provided the opportunity to try some new
arrangements for managing fisheries based on informal
partnerships and trust between fishers, scientists and
managers. There was a general recognition that Chiles
fish stocks were in trouble and people were looking for
answers, while at the same time societal change had begun.
This supported openness to new approaches. Scientific
understanding of coastal ecosystems in the region was good
and provided the basis for a new management plan and the
testing of new cooperative models for fishery management.
The result was a national system of marine tenure that
allocates exclusive ocean territories to local and small-scale
fisheries. By cutting the number of large vessels in distinct
territories, fishing pressure was reduced.
These change processes require the active involvement of

agents from science, policy, civil society and business, both
in the development of new knowledge and in its application
(ORiordan 2008). The processes are necessarily iterative and
involve developing a joint framing of a problem, a shared vision
of the future, experimenting with solutions, evaluation and
learning. Bottom-up solutions developed in this way should
contribute to improving local sustainability and also reinforce
the initial top-down changes and support their further extension
(Weaver 2011). This is also proposed by the German Advisory
Council on Global Change (WBGU 2011), which points to the
need to empower the state to determine priorities and underline
them with clear signals, while at the same time giving citizens
more extensive opportunities to have a voice, to get involved in
decision making and to take a more active role in politics.
Source: Gelcich et al. 2010
of long-term stable and systemic monitoring for managing

transitions is illustrated by the example in Box 7.5.
Understanding the inevitability of transitions, and learning to
govern and manage transition processes, is particularly important
given the evidence of Earth System changes (Loorbach et al.
2011). New kinds of multi-level change processes are required
that involve a dynamic interplay between gradually introduced,
top-down changes and self-organizing bottom-up processes of
social innovation, because traditional expert-driven, top-down
Box 7.6 The transition to improved governance of

the Great Barrier Reef
Olsson et al. (2008) found that in the case of the Great
Barrier Reef, management had to be flexible, adaptive
and responsive to continual scientific monitoring.This
flexibility enabled new interactions and ways of working, with
leadership and consensus building also being important. The
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and its Chair played
an essential role in seeking and obtaining the support of the
public, industry and governments at all levels for putting the
management of the worlds largest coral reef system on to an
ecological footing. A critical step in the process was to enlist
public support for managing the reef more flexibly. One of
the most visible and controversial initiatives under the new
regime was to extend the area closed to all forms of fishing
from 6 per cent to 33 per cent of the total reef area, creating
the largest no-take zone in the world. The Barrier Reef
example illustrates a shift in thinking towards an integrated
view of humans and nature based on active stewardship of
marine ecosystems for human well-being.
Source: Westley et al. 2011
210
With regard to bottom-up responses, Westley et al. (2011) point out

that there are enormous reservoirs for learning and innovation that
are often revealed in moments of crisis. Success involves listening
to local communities for ideas, informing local populations of the
resources and possibilities available, trusting them and allowing
a diversity of innovative responses to emerge, as opposed to
insisting on a top-down planning process. One of the examples
cited by Westley et al. (2011) is summarized in Box 7.6.
REFLECTIONS
The Earth System is complex, with many interactions between and

within subsystems, feedbacks and non-linearity. Humans, as an
integral part of the Earth System, are changing it through their sheer
numbers and their activities, although the impacts of these changes
are not uniformly distributed, with some people and places more
affected than others. As a result of the enormous complexity of the
system as a whole, it is not possible to predict the outcomes of
rapidly increasing human pressures on the Earth System, but it is
clear that thresholds have been or are being reached, beyond which
abrupt and irreversible changes occur. These changes will affect the
basic life-support functions of the planet.
While efforts have been made to address some of the changes,
and there are some success stories documented elsewhere in
this report, this analysis points to the need for approaches that
address the underlying drivers of anthropogenic pressures on the
Earth System, especially population growth and overconsumption.
At the same time, it is necessary to adopt approaches that can
deal better with the complexities and inherent uncertainties of the
Earth System. Such approaches are discussed in Chapters 15 and
16 as adaptive governance processes. These must, however, be
underpinned by sustained long-term monitoring and observation
of all relevant aspects of the system, regular evaluation of
progress, and adjustment of goals when observations indicate
that this is necessary. At the same time, basic and applied
research must continue to improve understanding of the Earth
System and make this knowledge available in the search for
solutions to persistent problems of unsustainability.
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C H A P T E R
Nikada/iStock
Contributing authors: Charles Davies, Ashbindu Singh and Jaap van Woerden
Principal scientific reviewer: Rainer M. Krug
This chapter has been prepared by the Secretariat
215
Main Messages
Global research programmes and rapidly
improving technologies for collecting
environmental information and presenting it in
engaging ways are informing the debate about
present and future environmental challenges.
Nevertheless, deficiencies in scientifically credible
data on the environment in particular time series
on such issues as freshwater quantity and quality,
groundwater depletion, ecosystem services, loss
of natural habitat, land degradation, and chemicals
and waste are a major handicap in developing
evidence-based policies.
Official environment statistics is still an emerging
field, with poor availability and quality of data in
many countries. Environment statistics, mostly
collected or compiled by national statistical offices,
are one of the most important sources of information
for assessment reports like GEO-5, but global and
regional reports from the United Nations and other
agencies regularly show gaps,
or use old data or estimates.
Capacity development to support environmental
information, especially in developing countries,
needs to be stepped up significantly. Different
countries often use different approaches to produce
data on the same issue, making comparisons
difficult. This highlights the need for regular
monitoring and, to allow comparisons across nations
216
216

and regions, the harmonization of approaches to

those that follow international standards. Also
of high priority are the coordination at country
level of existing if fragmented scientific and
environmental data; the provision of easy access to a
range of potential users, for example on the internet;
and linking this data with official statistics that are
used for policy making.
International cooperation is essential, since
environmental problems do not follow national
boundaries. Some of the many global and regional
initiatives supporting environmental information
are mentioned in this review. International
cooperation and sharing of comparable data are
especially important in addressing global issues
such as climate change, and tackling environmental
problems related to transboundary watercourses,
oceans and seas, and polar regions. At present,
cooperation mechanisms are much stronger in some
areas than others.
Adequate information does exist to develop
effective environmental policies; data gaps rarely
justify inaction. However, more systematic data
collection efforts can help governments to assess
their progress towards international goals, improve
the focus of their policies and monitor their impact,
and direct scarce resources to address the most
critical environmental challenges.
BACKGROUND
This review provides a snapshot of the data on which GEO-5

is based, highlights some of the limitations in the data that
are currently available, describes some global and regional
programmes that are supporting environmental information,
and identifies some of the highest priorities for promoting more
effective environmental monitoring in countries and regions.
The review is intended to have a practical, rather than a
detailed, technical focus. In line with the request of the Global
Intergovernmental and Multi-Stakeholder Consultation, it focuses
on data relevant to track the state and trends of the environment
(Part 1), and touches more briefly on data needs relating to policy
responses (Parts 2 and 3).
DEFINITIONS
Data: facts and statistics used for reference or analysis (COD

2003). Data is used here to mean points of information, normally
collected through some kind of scientific method. An example of
a point of data or datum is a measurement of the temperature
in downtown Cairo at 8:00am.
Datasets: collections of data on a particular issue, for example
historical temperature records for downtown Cairo.
Information: facts or knowledge provided or learned as a result
of research or study (COD 2003). Information is used here as a
broader term, including facts, data, anecdotes and the results
of analysis that are understood, correctly or incorrectly, by the
person using them; for example, the best time to visit Cairo is in
the cooler months between November and March.
Statistics: is used here to describe official data collected by
national statistical offices.
Environment statistics: statistics that describe the state of and
trends in the environment, covering the media of the natural
environment (air and climate, water, land and soil), the biota
within the media and human settlements (OECD 2007).
INTRODUCTION
The factual and scientific quality of an assessment such as GEO-5

relies to a large extent on what data are available on the state
and trends of the environment. Economic and social data are
important to analyse the drivers and socio-economic impacts of
environmental change (Box 8.1) and consider possible responses
and scenarios. Indices, obtained by combining and packaging
data on a number of variables, can be used to summarize
information and make it easier to communicate and understand,
and a variety of other tools can be used to visualize, present and
disseminate data and information.
The availability of information relies on activities such as data
collection, for example measurements of pollution levels in air
and water, sea surface temperature, or images from satellite
remote sensing that can be used to produce land-cover
maps; monitoring programmes involving regular, comparable
Box 8.1 The three principal data gaps on drivers of

global environmental change
Human migration
Data are needed on where migrants come from and where they
go, with respect to both international migration and internal
migration, and also regarding both permanent and temporary
migration. Data would ideally include timing, numbers and
geographic locations.
Agricultural systems
Basic information is needed on inflows and outflows of
nutrients and water, as well as other important resource flows.
Environmental footprints for economic production
At the level of country and product, information is needed on
energy and water inputs and key pollution outputs in order
to understand how patterns of production and consumption
affect environmental systems.
measurements or time series; analysis of data to produce

information that policy makers can use, such as comparisons of
trends over time or progress towards established targets; and the
interpretation of results to explain patterns and trends. Existing
gaps and capacity-building needs relate to all these areas.
Rapid advances in information technology, remote sensing,
geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning
systems (GPS), database management, measuring instruments,
data visualization tools, social media and the internet offer
unprecedented opportunities to collect and disseminate
information. The trend towards digital data has opened up new
possibilities for state-of-the-environment reporting, allowing
users to directly access and download data, maps and other
information, in addition to the more traditional periodic,
analytical reports such as GEO. That said, many national
statistical offices have not yet been able to exploit this potential
to modernize their statistical systems, an area that could benefit
from international coordination and support.
Internationally comparable data are necessary to track
environmental changes at the regional and global level.
Most data to track the state and trends of the environment
are collected at the country level, but both availability and
quality remain poor in a large number of countries. Many do
not produce internationally comparable data because they
follow their own national guidelines or a modified version of
international guidelines.
Data are produced by a wide range of public and private sources
but these are often scattered and difficult to compare globally. In
addition, privately produced data may be protected by intellectual
property rights and available only at cost; although in the absence
of property rights, data may not have been collected at all.
217
In 2009, the United Nations reported: Environment statistics

frequently lack one or more of the standard attributes of highquality statistics, namely, relevance, accuracy, timeliness,
accessibility, interpretability and coherence. The fact that
environment statistics are ad hoc, widely dispersed and of
varying degrees of quality clearly underlines the need for
a framework, that is, a basic organizing structure to guide
environment statistics (UN 2009).
INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMMES SUPPORTING

ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION
A number of international programmes support data collection

and analysis, and coordinate, compile, disseminate and present
data and information on various issues relating to the state of the
environment. It is important to note that environmental data and
information from UN sources often rely on statistics collected by
national governments.
The United Nations has developed a core set of Indicators of
Sustainable Development in response to the 2002 World Summit
on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and decisions of the UN
Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD). The latest
revision of these indicators, published in October 2007, contains
a core set of 50 indicators covering poverty, governance, health,
education, demographics, natural hazards, atmosphere, land,
oceans, seas and coasts, freshwater, biodiversity, economic
development, global economic partnership, and consumption
and production patterns (UN 2007b).
The Framework for the Development of Environment Statistics (UN
1984) serves as a template and guide for countries to develop
and organize environmental and related socio-economic data.
The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) has endorsed
a work programme to update this framework with a view to
transforming it into a hub for a broader range of producers of
environment statistics, including not only traditional statistical
data-collection instruments of national statistical systems but
also information from scientific monitoring. The update aims to
improve coordination of environmental data within countries,
and improve coordination of environmental, economic and social
data (UN 2009).
Data collection, dissemination, training and capacity-building
programmes in environment statistics are coordinated by an
Intersecretariat Working Group on Environment Statistics (IWGENV), convened by the UNSD. The UNSD/UNEP Questionnaire
on Environment Statistics covers the themes of water, air, land
and waste (UN 2011). The UNSD also collects specific data
on the status of national environmental-economic accounting
(UN 2007a) and has developed a System of EnvironmentalEconomic Accounting (SEEA) under the United Nations
Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting
(UNCEEA). The Committee for the Coordination of Statistical
Activities (CCSA) coordinates the statistical data work of UN
entities and international partners, such as the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the
Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat),
218
Mount Gwanaksan weather station, Republic of Korea. Matteusus/iStock
and exchange of data between UN entities is facilitated by the

UN data mechanism (data.un.org).
Prominent sets of indicators and indices relate to the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs), in particular ten indicators related
to MDG 7 on ensuring environmental sustainability; the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development
Index (HDI); Yale Universitys Environmental Performance Index
and the OECDs Core and Key Environmental Indicators as well as
the Core Set of Indicators of the European Environment Agency
(EEA). A number of environment-related, global and regional
conventions have monitoring and reporting programmes, and
many of the convention secretariats, such as that for the Montreal
Protocol, support countries with the collection, monitoring,
interpretation and analysis of data in their area of responsibility
(UNEP 1999).
Geospatial data, from technologies such as satellite remote
sensing and networks of weather stations and ocean buoys, are
another important source of environmental information. Large,
international global-change research programmes and initiatives
such as the Group on Earth Observations System of Systems
(GEOSS) offer new opportunities to access this type of information.
GEOSS was set up to provide decision-making support tools to a
wide variety of users by linking existing and planned observation
systems around the world, and supporting the development
of new systems where gaps exist. It also promotes common
technical standards that make it possible to combine data from
many different observation instruments into coherent datasets.
In addition, the GEOSS Data Sharing Principles have encouraged
satellite operators to enable greater access to data (GEO 2010).
Table 8.1 Environmental Data Explorer: data providers

Updated information and web links to data providers can be found on the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Environmental Data Explorer website (geodata.grid.unep.ch).
Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC)
Biodiversity Indicators Partnership (BIP)
Ramsar Convention Bureau
Bureau de Recherches Gologiques et Minires (BRGM)
Secretariat of the Basel Convention
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC)
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR)
Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat
International
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research
Desertification (UNCCD)
Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
United Nations Childrens Fund (UNICEF)
Conservation International (CI)
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for

Environment and Sustainability (IES)
(UNESCO)
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
European Space Agency (ESA)
UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
UNEP Global Environmental Monitoring System Water Programme
Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)
(GEMS Water)
Global Footprint Network (GFN)
UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)
Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF)
United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
(formerly United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)
International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
United Nations Office of Legal Affairs (OLA)
International Energy Agency (IEA)
United Nations Population Division (UNPD)
International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre (IGRAC)
United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)
International Labour Organization (ILO)
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
International Organization for Standardization (ISO)
University of California at Berkeley Museum of Vertebrate Zoology
International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
University of Maryland (UMD)
IUCN and UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre
University of Montana Department of Ecosystem and Conservation
World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA),
United States
Sciences
Water Footprint Network (WFN)
World Development Indicators (WDI), World Bank
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
World Energy Council (WEC)
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS),
World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)
United States
World Health Organization (WHO)
National Marine Fisheries Service, United States
WHO Second Administrative Level Boundaries dataset project (SALB)
National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC), United States
WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) for Water Supply
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States
and Sanitation
Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency (PBL)
WHO/UNICEF Roll Back Malaria
Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA)
World Bank
UNEPs Environmental Data Explorer (geodata.grid.unep.ch)

compiles and presents a wide range of economic, social and
environmental data covering more than 500 variables, which
can be used to track the state and trends of the environment in
support of GEO and other environmental assessments. Updated
lists of data providers and variables can be accessed on the Data
Explorer (Table 8.1).
THEMATIC GAPS
Many global programmes focus on supporting and compiling

data collected at the national level. In almost all thematic
areas, data availability is geographically unbalanced and data
are generally scarcer in developing countries. Data collected at

sub-national levels for example on urban air quality tend to
be even more fragmented. Variables that are linked to industrial
activities and organized sectors of the economy including
some sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are easier to
measure and monitor. Other issues, including forest cover, can
be assessed on a broad scale using satellite remote sensing.
However, the effects of environmental change, such as air or
water pollution eroding human health, may be spread over
wide areas and be difficult both to measure and to attribute to a
particular cause. These limitations present a serious challenge
to measuring the consequences of environmental change.
219
Research on both scientific and policy aspects of the state of

the environment is continuously developing and countries face
greater challenges in collecting data on newly emerging issues.
Data collection and monitoring in the polar regions, on the
high seas and in the upper atmosphere rely on international
cooperation programmes.
Atmosphere
Climate data remain limited in some regions, with marked

scarcity in developing countries. Understanding temperature
changes at finer resolution than continental scales and
attributing them to human or natural causes remains
difficult, and is complicated by factors such as land-use
change and pollution (IPCC 2007). The impacts of climate
change and extreme events depend on a range of economic,
social, geographic, cultural, institutional, governance and
environmental factors, such as levels of wealth and education,
disability and health status, as well as gender, age and social
status. In general, data on disasters and measures to reduce
disaster risk are lacking at the local level (IPCC 2011).
Data relating to emissions of greenhouse gases, ozonedepleting substances and many other pollutants have
improved in recent years as they are required and

supported by a number of international programmes and
conventions, including the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Montreal
Protocol. The policy relevance of emissions data can be
increased by disaggregating them by sector, for example
transport, and by such sub-sectors as road, air and water
transport and type of fuel and engine. Data availability
is more limited for countries that are not Parties to the
relevant conventions; gaps are often filled through the use
of model estimates.
There are many gaps in air quality data relating to pollutants
that are not the focus of global conventions nitrates,
sulphates, tropospheric ozone, particulate matter and black
carbon especially in developing countries, and, even where
data are available, they can be fragmented and difficult
to access. Indoor air pollution is a leading cause of death,
especially in low-income countries, with a disproportionate
impact on women; WHOs programme to assess the global
burden of disease uses estimates of the effects of indoor air
pollution, because it is impractical to monitor inside peoples
homes (WHO 2010, 2009).
Sugar cane, one of the worlds major biofuel crops. Important gaps in data on the production and use of biofuels remain. Wendy Townrow/iStock
220
Land
Different methods of assessing land cover and use continue

to yield very different results. In general, there are many
deficiencies in the available data on these issues.
The extent of drylands in the world is uncertain because of
different classifications and methodologies used by different
programmes (ICTSD 2007).
The limited globally comparable data on land degradation
an essential information base for dryland nations to
address the problem date from the Global Assessment
of Human Induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD) in 1990 (UN
2004), although new estimates using satellite data are being
developed.
There is no comprehensive and complete global database of
wetlands, and different estimates of global wetlands extent are
very inconsistent (Lehner and Dll 2004; Finlayson et al. 1999).
Remote sensing has advanced knowledge of land cover and
land use, but reliable information on changes is limited as
data from different points in time are often not comparable
because of changing sensor technology, insufficient ground
truthing and a lack of agreement on ecosystem delineations.
There are multiple definitions for forest, for example.
Satellite-derived estimates of urban area, less than 0.5
per cent of global land cover, are four- to sixfold lower than
previous estimates based on global urban population maps
(Schneider et al. 2009).
Two recent FAO reviews of deforestation showed very different
trends for 20002005, with one based on national reports
showing a slower rate of deforestation than in the past, while
the other, based on remote sensing, suggests a faster rate
(FAO and EC-JRC 2011; Hansen et al. 2010).
A Nepali girl drinking from a city fountain on Patan Durbar Square,

Kathmandu, where local residents sometimes queue for hours waiting
for their turn to collect clean drinking water. Wendy Townrow/iStock
transboundary aquifer systems will be a major task for the

Transboundary Water Assessment Programme (UNEP 2011a).
Baseline data and monitoring of changes in carbon stocks

are needed, and evidence is still emerging of the significant
carbon sequestration potential of rangelands and grasslands.
In general, data on groundwater, including availability,

quality, extraction, uses, management and legislation, are
more limited than data on surface waters. Rectifying this
should be a priority since groundwater is being extracted
unsustainably in many regions. Additionally, limited data are
available on groundwater contamination from substances
such as nitrates and arsenic.
Data on biofuels including the extent of production and use

are fragmented and incomplete at the global level, although
datasets can be found at the national level in some countries.
Information on access to drinking water and sanitation has

improved to track the MDG 7 target; sex-disaggregated data
on these issues remain a high priority.
The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) is

monitoring a set of indicators to assess country performance
in ensuring that poor people have access to land and tenure
security (IFAD 2008). Governments could apply these and
other social, economic and environmental indicators (Bach
et al. 2009) to evaluate the impacts of land-use changes and
large-scale international land deals in Africa or elsewhere.
No global datasets are available to evaluate trends in all

water-related diseases, although global trend data on cholera
are used as a proxy.
Water
Comprehensive data on water quality and quantity remain

a priority; mapping and the compilation of an inventory of
UN-Water compiles information on the state and trends of

integrated water management approaches (UN-Water 2008a).
Exchange of comparable information, as well as joint
monitoring and assessment, is necessary for longterm, sustainable and reliable cooperation in managing
transboundary waters (UN-Water 2008b).
221
Box 8.2 Glacier monitoring in the Himalayas

Glaciers in the Himalayas and other high mountains in Asia
are the source of the continents major rivers, supporting
vulnerable, densely populated river basins downstream.
Understanding fluctuations in the mass of glaciers is essential
for decision making on water resources, agriculture and
disaster risk reduction in downstream areas. Changes in the
mass of glaciers depend on a multitude of complex elements,
including the glaciers size, the microclimate, local topography,
altitude range, aspect in relation to the sun, and variations in
influences of the Indian monsoons and the deserts of Central
Asia and western China. There is also huge uncertainty about
how snow and glacial melting in the Himalayan region will
continue to respond to climate change, and how such change
will affect ecosystems and human well-being.
The ability to measure the area and length of glaciers
has been improved through remote sensing, although
there are still limitations, including access to appropriate
satellite images and confirmation of results through field
Comparable data are needed on water resource efficiency by

sector and country, water footprint, and movements of virtual
water in traded products.
A body of research and a number of initiatives are improving
data on emerging issues relating to oceans and marine
ecosystems, including ocean acidification, marine litter,
water quality for bathing, carbon sequestered by marine
organisms, the status of coral reefs and algal blooms. All
regions have at least some information on fisheries status
and trends but, in general, there are major gaps in global
coverage of data on the marine environment as a whole,
especially in areas beyond national jurisdiction, and
consistent time series are rarely maintained (UNEP
and IOC-UNESCO 2009).
The availability of data on glaciers and ice coverage is
improving through observation networks and remote
sensing (Box 8.2), but information on permafrost is mostly
still at the research stage, with monitoring taking place in
only a few areas.
Biodiversity
Data on the state of biodiversity, such as protected areas and

threatened species, is improving but uneven (BIP 2010). For
instance, there is better data on birds and mammals than on
invertebrates and plants. In general, monitoring is least extensive
in tropical regions, although they contain the greatest share of
global biodiversity (UNEP 2011a).
Data on invasive species populations, when available, are
probably substantial underestimates, especially for many
222
surveys (ground truthing). Glacier length and area alone,

however, are not the only significant factors: thickness is
also important but is much more difficult to measure. Lack
of sufficient Himalayan meteorological data and monitoring
stations has also been a major handicap in drawing
conclusions on the impact of climate change on glaciers,
snow cover and associated phenomena such as glacial lake
outburst floods. Another challenge is that the Himalayas
are spread across eight countries with different financial
capabilities and socio-economic objectives, meaning that
international coordination may be required to strengthen a
long-term programme in the region.
We have anecdotal evidence that glaciers may be receding,
but we need precise and carefully vetted data, both through
satellite imaging and ground surveys. Indian Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh
Source: Jacob et al. 2012; UNEP 2009b; Haeberli 2008; Zemp et al. 2008
developing countries. Addressing this gap is a high priority for

small islands, which suffer heavily from invasive alien species.
Countries will report on the Aichi Biodiversity Targets 2011
2020 under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). A
recent review evaluates adequacy of existing observation
systems to support reporting on these targets and identifies
a number of data gaps (GEO BON 2011).
Under the previous 2010 Biodiversity Indicators Partnership
(BIP 2010), indicators for themes such as the status of
access and benefit sharing, as well as traditional knowledge,
could not be fully developed because of a lack
of comprehensive data.
A substantial effort has been made in the past to gather data
on natural resources that are consumed directly, such as
fish and timber, but data quality is not adequate to monitor
changes in the composition of fish catches that result from
fishing down the food web.
There is a lack of data allowing the linking of trends in the
state of biodiversity with the drivers of biodiversity loss, such
as changes in habitat extent, ocean acidification, overfishing
and chemicals.
There is no comprehensive assessment of the number and
extent of community-managed protected areas.
Initiatives such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
(MA) and The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
(TEEB) have pioneered approaches to assess and value a
broader range of ecosystem goods and services for example

regulating services including the value of ecosystems for
disaster risk reduction, and cultural services but the
ability of most national statistical systems to support these
approaches is still limited.
Chemicals and waste
The effects of chemicals on human health and the

environment have only been assessed against modern
standards (USEPA 2005) for a small number of substances.
Data on the effects at different dosages or concentrations, or
the effects of combined exposure to multiple chemicals, are
at an even earlier stage of research or are absent. In addition,
risk assessment procedures often use average adult data, so
risks to children also need to be considered.
Many chemicals became established items of commerce

before systematic assessments were made (Lowell Center for
Sustainable Production 2003), and concerns have arisen over
unsuspected properties such as endocrine disruption, which
can damage the hormonal and reproductive system of people
and animals (UNEP 2010).
Chemicals legislation in a number of developed countries,
such as the European Commissions REACH programme,
has established data inventories that are greatly improving
access to information on issues such as chemical toxicity and
socio-economic impacts (EC 2012).
Many new materials containing nanoparticles are produced

and widely marketed, but safety testing has been limited
even though some potential for human exposure has been
identified (Morris et al. 2011; Sass et al. 2006).
Data on hazardous wastes at the international level are
mainly provided through reports submitted to the Secretariat
of the Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary
Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, but
the number of national reports is declining and the data
they contain can be sparse and difficult to interpret. Data
on transboundary movements of hazardous wastes is
satisfactory according to a recent analysis report, in part
since data from Parties that report also include information
on transboundary movements involving Parties that do not.
Nonetheless, more data are needed about the generation of
hazardous wastes and their treatment by importing states.
Concerns have also been expressed about the quality of
some of the data, and data do not cover illegal movements
or generation and disposal in the informal sector (Basel
Convention 2010).
Reliable data about waste generation, collection and
management worldwide are lacking, especially in most
developing regions. Municipal and household waste, the
largest waste stream, should be a particular priority together
with industrial and hazardous waste. Data collection on
municipal and household waste is complex and time-
Rusty fuel and chemical drums in the Arctic. Vladimir Melnik/iStock
223
consuming, and there is a risk of double-counting from

different sources, for example waste collection companies
and disposal facilities.
In most high-income countries, severely polluted sites have
already been identified and remediated, but in many lowand middle-income countries, pollution hotspots are poorly
documented, and sometimes are completely unknown to
local and national governments (Blacksmith Institute 2011).
Long-term monitoring programmes for persistent organic
pollutants (POPs) in the environment and in human tissue
need to be maintained and expanded, in particular in the
southern hemisphere (UNEP 2009a).
The long-term monitoring of marine pollution faces financial
and institutional capacity constraints, especially in
developing countries (UNEP/GPA 2006).
Policy and responses
Quantitative targets can spur the collection of data to

track whether the targets are being met, but only a few
international goals such as the MDG 7 targets for water and
sanitation include quantitative environmental targets.
Some information is available on the implementation status

of ecolabelling, certification and similar programmes; on
protected areas; and on ratification and implementation of
conventions. This comes from convention secretariats or
compilations such as ECOLEX (www.ecolex.org).
Limited data are available on issues such as environmental
expenditures, green investments, green gross domestic
product accounting, trends in and effectiveness of payment
for ecosystem service (PES) schemes, environmental crimes
and environmental policy effectiveness.
Governments and other stakeholders can monitor
environmental policies by looking at their implementation
status, such as the extent of protected areas or of compliance
with vehicle emissions regulations, or at their impact, such as
trends in species extinction risk or in air quality.
Social and economic issues
Social and economic data and indices for example census

data and conventional gross domestic product (GDP) have
a solid history that is difficult to match in the environmental
domain. A number of initiatives, such as the System of
Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) (UN et al. 2003)
and UNEPs Green Economy Initiative (UNEP 2011c), have
supported the development of environmental and social
indicators to complement GDP, and are starting to be applied
in different countries worldwide.
Basic data on population trends and distribution are

improving. Socio-economic data relating more closely to
the state of the environment on issues such as poverty-
224
A team of divers conducting coral reef resilience surveys off the

northwestern coast of Pemba, Island, Tanzania. J Tamelander/IUCN
environment and environment-security links are still based

mainly on proxy data and case studies. Tools such as the T-21
model of the Millennium Institute (UNEP 2011b) combine
environmental and socio-economic data and produce
policy-relevant information, for example to demonstrate how
resource depletion could affect GDP.
Sex-disaggregated data on issues relating to the environment
are generally lacking, especially for developing countries,
making it difficult to analyse and understand disparities in
natural resource use and management structures.
Data on resource use and efficiencies as well as material
flows are improving, but solid baseline data on issues such
as resource stocks are often lacking.
The availability of data on energy production and
consumption, including renewable energy, are also
improving through the International Energy Agency
and other organizations (IEA 2011).
REGIONAL INITIATIVES AND PRIORITIES
Many regional programmes aim at strengthening environmental

information on the basis of the specific needs, development
status and priority environmental issues of countries in each
region. Table 8.2 lists a selection of these programmes and
regional priority needs.
Table 8.2: Selected regional initiatives and priorities for environmental information
Africa
United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), the African Centre for Statistics and UNEP are supporting countries in developing
a core list of indicators for Africa, based on the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) indicators, the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs) and the New Partnership for Africas Development (NEPAD)
Sub-regional organizations like the Economic Community for West African States (ECOWAS) are increasing their involvement,
based on programmes in related areas like food security and economic development
In general, Africa is a high-priority region for capacity development in environment statistics
Asia and the Pacific Overall, Asian countries have a relatively high response rate to the UNSD/UNEP Questionnaire on Environment Statistics,
whereas the response rate from Pacific countries is low (UN 2011); development in the region varies widely between countries
Regional organizations provide support on certain issues, such as compilation of statistics from various sources by the Economic
and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Asian Development Bank
A number of programmes exist on specific themes and/or covering different sub-regions, for instance:
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)/UNEP Asia-Pacific Material Flows
- Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Centre for Biodiversity
- UNEP/ South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) South Asia Environment Outlook
- Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET)
- Clean Air Initiative Asia (data on issues such as air quality, energy and transport in Asian cities)
- Mekong River Commission (for example water level data)
Europe
The European Commission, Eurostat and the European Environment Agency (EEA) are the main sources of environmental data in
Western and Central Europe, and they are extending their related capacity-building efforts into Central Asia
Eurostat collects, produces, analyses and disseminates statistics on the state of and pressures on the environment as well as
a range of related economic and social data based largely on data provided by national statistical offices of its member states
(Eurostat 2010)
EEA and its member and cooperating countries operate the European Environment Information and Observation Network
(EIONET) for multi-country data collection, organization and dissemination
Eurostat and OECD circulate a Joint Questionnaire on the State of the Environment covering member states of both organizations
Environmental data and information are more sparse in European countries that are not members of either organization,
including a number of countries in Eastern and South Eastern Europe; one priority in many of these countries is to restore
monitoring networks and related data time series that were discontinued in the 1990s (UNECE 2003)
The Helsinki Commission for the Baltic Sea, the OSPAR Commission for the North-East Atlantic, the Barcelona Convention for the
Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea Commission operate data programmes covering their respective marine areas
The pan-European scientific monitoring network of the UNECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)
has been pivotal in providing the evidence identifying the most important European air quality issues
Latin America and

the Caribbean
North America
Data and information to track the state of the environment is collected and analysed by a variety of government agencies as
well as academic and other institutions, including Environment Canada, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
US government and academic institutions also collect and provide access to global environmental data on a number of issues
including sea level, surface temperature, land cover and coral bleaching (Table 8.1)
West Asia
The Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI), in partnership with UNEP, promotes enhanced collection,
dissemination and use of environmental data and information. These and other organizations are co-sponsoring the Global
Network of Networks initiative, aimed at effective access to the worlds expanding pool of environmental data
A core set of environmental indicators for West Asia, developed by the League of Arab States (LAS) in partnership with the
Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (ESCWA) and UNEP, has been established by countries of the region on a
voluntary basis
An Arab Environmental Information Network is being developed under the umbrella of LAS, with support from UNEP and in
collaboration with ESCWA, AGEDI and other organizations
In many countries of the region, official statistics on the environment are rarely generated, difficult to access and scattered
among different institutions, and reporting is fragmented (UNEP 2006); major thematic gaps and priorities include data on land
salinization, coastal and marine pollution, disasters, waste management and transport (UNEP 2006)
A number of regional initiatives are promoting and coordinating environment statistics in the region, including:
- the Latin American and Caribbean Initiative for Sustainable Development (ILAC, 32 agencies from 24 countries as of end 2011)
- the Working Group on Environmental Statistics of the Statistical Conference of the Americas (15 institutions from 10 countries)
- sub-regional initiatives such as the Andean Community Indicators and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Indicators
According to a recent survey of national statistical offices and environment ministries in the region, 81% of the participating
institutions had an environment statistics programme, although only 36% had a specific budget dedicated to it; other significant
institutional challenges remain in many countries (ECLAC 2011)
Source: (UN 2011)
225
NATIONAL CAPACITY NEEDS
Data collected at the national level are some of the most important
sources of information to track the state and trends of the global
environment. Environment statistics is an emerging field in
most countries, and many have only scattered data (UN 2011).
Most developing countries currently have no comprehensive
environmental observation system. Data may exist but are often
discontinuous, making it difficult to establish a baseline to
measure change over time or progress against targets. The recent
UNDP/UNEP/GEF synthesis of National Capacity Self-Assessments
noted that more than 90 per cent of the 119 participating countries
identified information management and knowledge as a
capacity need. While selecting a list of environmental indicators
and collecting information was more straightforward in many
countries, the main challenge involved managing this information
and coordination of the organizations involved, including
research institutions and programmes. National environmental
management information systems need to be strengthened, as
well as the skill sets of associated staff. Measures to address
this include application of standards, use of communication
Figure 8.1 Example of a country snapshot on environment statistics, from Uganda

Uganda
Air and climate
Emissions of:
SO2 (1000t)
SO2 per capita (kg)
NOx (1000t)
NOx per capita (kg)
CO2 (million tonnes)
CO2 per capita (tonnes)
GHG (million tonnes CO2 eq.)
GHG per capita (tonnes CO2 eq.)
Ozone depleting CFCs (ODP tonnes)
GHG from energy (%)
Biodiversity
Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas

protected (%)
Number of threatened species
Fish catch (tonnes)
Change in fish catch from previous year (%)
Economy
GDP growth rate from previous year (%)

GDP per capita ($US)
% Value added agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing
% Value added mining, manufacturing, utilities
% Value added other
Energy
Energy consumption (1000t oil eq.)

Energy consumption per capita (kg oil eq.)
Energy use intensity (kg oil eq.) per $1,000 (PPP) GDP
Renewable electricity production (%)
Land and agriculture
Total area (sq km)

Agricultural land (sq km)
Arable land (% of agric. land)
Permanent crops (% of agric.land)
Permanent meadows and pastures (% of agric. land)
Change in agricultural land area since 1990 (%)
Forest area (sq km)
Change in forest area since 1990 (%)
Population
Population (1000)
Population growth rate from previous year (%)
Waste
Total population served by municipal waste

collection (%)
Municipal waste collected (1000t)
Hazardous waste generated (tonnes)
226
...
...
...
59
3
0
42
2.0
0
9
SUDAN
Year
1994
2007
2007
1994
1994
2008
1994
10
2009
166
450 000
-11
2010
2008
2008
Kitgum
Kotido
Gulu
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF
THE CONGO
2008
2009
2009
2009
2009
1 064
38
...
72
2007
2007
Lake
Albert
Masindi
33 425
3
Lothaa
Soroti
Lake Kyoga
Kumi
Mbale
Kamuli
FortPortal
Mubende
Jinja
Kampala
Entebbe
Ibanda
Iganga
Bombo
Tororo
KENYA
Masaka
Mbarara
Lake Victoria
TANZANIA
RWANDA
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2010
2010
2010
2010
...
224
...
Lake
Kwania
Hoima
Kabale
241 550
130 120
43
17.0
39
9
29 880
-37
Moroto
Lira
Kasese
10
523
23
12
65
KENYA
2006
International borders
Railways
Main roads
Rivers
50
100 km
Based on UN national map
Note: The boundaries, the names shown, and the designations used on this map do not imply
official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.
Water and sanitation
Long-term average renewable freshwater resources

(mio m3/yr)
Urban population with access to improved drinking
water source (%)
Rural population with access to improved drinking
water source (%)
Urban population with access to improved
sanitation (%)
Rural population with access to improved
sanitation (%)
66 000
N/A
91
2008
64
2008
38
2008
49
2008
Source: UN 2011
Flooded houses in the aftermath of tropical storm Hanna, Haiti. Better information on disaster risk is a growing priority in most regions.
Marco Dormino/UN Photo
technologies and networks, as well as capacity development,

public awareness activities and environmental education. In
addition, while many stakeholders recognized the value of
traditional knowledge for environmental management, few
countries felt it was captured well, if at all, and used to develop
environmental policies and programmes (UNDP et al. 2010).
Strengthening institutional arrangements and expertise for

coordination of environmental and scientific information
that exist in-country but may be fragmented, based on clear
roles and responsibilities of different agencies, and the
incorporation of economic, social and environmental data
into national statistical systems.
Recent assessments of the status of national environmental

information include the National Capacity Self-Assessments,
the UNSD/UNEP Questionnaire on Environment Statistics,
and various regional and bilateral needs assessments. UNSD
country snapshots (Figure 8.1) summarize the environment
statistics that are available, and indicate those that are
not, from each country. The specific needs to strengthen
environmental information vary in each country, but normally
relate to the following issues.
Promoting the easy accessibility of data and information

(UNCED 1992) for a range of users and the general public,
addressing language barriers as well as cost, security and
intellectual property concerns, providing on-line access
and harnessing other new technologies to disseminate and
present environmental information.
Collection of high-quality data that adequately cover a full

range of established core indicators that can be used to
monitor the state and trends of the environment, such as the
UN Sustainable Development Indicators (UN 2007b), and
that are coherent and comparable. Figure 8.2 provide general
information on the existing and planned thematic coverage of
national environment statistics programmes.
Establishment of long-term monitoring programmes in priority
areas based on consistent support in terms of funding and
personnel, amongst others collecting data that are reliable
and are available in comparable time series (UNECE 2003).
Developing the necessary in-country expertise and capacity
for data collection, quality assessment, analysis and
interpretation on different themes.
Supporting institutional and other arrangements that increase

the use of national data, indicators and information, for
instance for environmental assessments; policy making;
convention reporting; and educational, scientific and
awareness-raising purposes.
The challenges posed by environment statistics
are generally greater than for most other types of
statistics Most significant perhaps is the fact that
a national statistical office must rely heavily on
other agencies to collect and supply the bulk of the
primary data. Such a high degree of interdependence
between different government bodies demands close
cooperation and collaboration.
ADB 2002
Scale is very important with respect to environmental data. Some

environmental problems are global, such as climate change;
others are best addressed and monitored at a regional level, or
227
Figure 8.2 National environment statistics programmes and thematic coverage, 2007
%
100
National programmes covering dierent themes
Countries planning to expand on dierent themes
80
60
40
20
0
Water
Air
Forest
Land
Agriculture
Energy
Biodiversity Transport
Waste
Minerals
Other Expenditure on
environmental
protection
Source: UN 2007a
at the level of maritime area (for example fish stocks) or

watershed (for example water availability and quality). Many
types of air pollution are best monitored at the municipal
level. Other issues affect ecosystems, for instance Amazon
deforestation affects parts of several countries in South
America. The boundaries of an ecological zone, and the scale
on which environmental problems occur, will rarely if ever
coincide with national or provincial borders or other official
geographic delineations (ADB 2002). Nevertheless, government
programmes national statistics in particular are important
for ensuring consistent, long-term support to data collection and

dissemination, and the use of scientifically credible information
for policy making. In strengthening these programmes, it is useful
to consider how environment statistics can be collected at scales
relevant to the problems concerned.
Many of the constraints on environmental data at the national
level are strongly linked with the availability of financial and
human resources. The cost of national environmental information
systems may vary greatly in different countries, and it is
important to ensure that methods for data collection, analysis
and dissemination are clear and cost effective (ADB 2002).
In order to strengthen the collection of environmental data in
countries and, where possible, to improve consistency with
international standards it is also important that environmental
information supports national policy goals and that policy makers
understand its value to their constituency, with international
financial support, capacity building and technical assistance
available when needed.
CONCLUSIONS
Wildebeest crossing the Mara River during the great migration between
Kenya and Tanzania. SimplyCreativePhotography/iStock
228
Sound environmental assessments must be underpinned by

high-quality scientific environmental, social and economic data.
Environmental data are also important to monitor the impacts
of environmental policies and programmes. As described
in this review, a large number of initiatives are collecting,
supporting and improving access to environmental information
at the global, regional and national levels. Ongoing and future
priorities include promoting, where possible, the use of common
standards for data collection and analysis, increased data
sharing, consistent time series of environmental observations,
capacity building to strengthen environment statistics in a
wider range of countries, and harnessing new technologies to
communicate environmental information effectively to policy
makers and the public.
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N., Kuhlman, T., Petit, S., Paracchini, M.L., Petersen, L.K., Reid, L., Rothman, D., Scholefield,
P., Schulp, N., Stuczynski, T., van Eupen, M., Verburg, P., Verkerk, H., Vogt, J., Vinther, F.P.
and Wilson, C. (2009). Indicators methodology and descriptions. In SENSOR Report Series
2008/09 (eds. Helming, K. and Wiggering, H.). ZALF, Germany
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Chapter 9:
Africa
Chapter 10:

Chapter 11:
Europe
Chapter 12:

Chapter 13:
North America
Chapter 14:
West Asia
Chapter 15:
Regional Summary
Parents should be able to comfort their children and say everything will be all
right its not the end of the world, and we are doing the best we can but I dont
think you can say that anymore.
Severn Suzuki, aged 12, addressing UNCED, Rio de Janeiro, June, 1992
The best way to use hard facts as a motivator is to partner scary information
with options for action: What can we do? Lets find a way to fix it. The young,
particularly, can handle bad news if theres an avenue for change.
Severn Suzuki, aged 32, Perspectives on Rio+20
C H A P T E R
Lucyna Koch/iStock
Africa
Coordinating lead authors: Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere and Clever Mafuta

Lead authors: Ameer Abdulla, Osman Mirghani M. Ali, Francis Mwaura and Bevlyne Sithole
Contributing authors: Sachooda Ragoonaden, A. Adnan Awad, Kerry W. Bowman,
Valerie Rabesahala, Gabriel Grimsditch, Charlotte Karibuhoye, Habtemariam Kassa
Belay, Rannveig K. Formo, Marina Gomei, Winnie Lau and Masego Madzawamuse
Principal scientific reviewer: Emma Archer van Garderen
Chapter coordinator: Frank Turyatunga
Main Messages
In Africa, population growth, rapid urbanization,
climate change, unsustainable development choices
and weak governance persist as critical challenges
to achieving both the environmental and the social
aspects of important regional goals.
Embarking on mutually reinforcing policies works
to Africas advantage. For nations faced with limited
resources, maximizing policy synergies helps
deliver social, ecological and economic benefits,
reduces trade-offs, and provides multiple paths
for addressing common drivers and pressures. For
example, sustainable land management policies
support positive outcomes in diverse environmental
domains including marine ecosystems, biodiversity
and freshwater. This will, however, require the
harmonization of policies between the local,
national, regional and global levels to avoid adverse
environmental and social impacts. For example,
global policies such as those for food, biofuels
and climate mitigation should not undercut local
livelihoods and adaptive capacity.
Transboundary natural resource policies strengthen
the integrated management of shared terrestrial and
marine ecosystems. The popularity of this approach
in Africa underscores its validity as a useful strategy
with wide applicability.
Networks of marine managed areas rather than
individual, strictly protected marine areas provide
more opportunity for comprehensive management
of marine resources. Benefits include fisheries
recovery, improved migratory species conservation,
reduced land- and sea-based pollution, and
enhanced social and ecological resilience to
climate change.
The recognition and up-scaling of human rights,
including the rights of indigenous people and
234
234

women, support improved human and environmental

well-being, as demonstrated by the recognition of
the right to water at national levels and by the African
Commission on Human and Peoples Rights.
Adequate capacity is critical for effective natural
resource management and governance. Needs
differ across levels, making capacity assessment
at multiple scales necessary to identify solutions.
Innovative institutional arrangements for pooling
knowledge, capacity and financial resources
help build long-term collaboration to achieve
environmental goals, as approaches for pollution
management demonstrate.
Management that considers the whole ecosystem,
including people, is more likely to be effective in
maintaining environmental goods and services and
human well-being, as sustainable land management
and integrated coastal zone management show.
Africas extensive use of community-based
environmental management has helped poor rural
communities generate revenues from wildlifebased enterprises and enabled nations to improve
their conservation of large mammals and related
ecosystems. The success of this approach hinges
on the extent to which governments have devolved
authority and rights over natural resources.
Strong accountability with secure participation,
access to information and consent ensure that
decisions are environmentally and socially
sustainable. Africas growing reliance on extractive
resource use makes securing accountability
important to avoid special-interest decisions.
Monitoring government performance and tracking
environmental trends supports effective and
timely response to ongoing environmental change,
including extreme natural events, and sets the basis
for further policy development.
INTRODUCTION
Over the last generation, Africa has built a substantial record

of responding to environmental challenges while addressing
human well-being, and this provides a point of departure for
strengthening policy and implementation. This chapter considers
12 promising policy options identified as contributing to
achieving a set of regionally selected international goals (Table
9.1) (see Introduction to GEO-5 for methodology).
As the policy appraisal shows, innovation by and partnerships
between African people and their governments have underpinned
this success, while the support of donors has been crucial to
the implementation of some policies. The principles of the Paris
Declaration on Aid Effectiveness ownership, harmonization,
alignment, management for results and mutual accountability
define collaboration with donors and are designed to ensure that aid
supports agreed government priorities and uses, and strengthens
government systems rather than developing parallel institutions.
Despite tremendous progress, significant challenges remain,
including population growth, rapid urbanization, climate change,
unsustainable development choices and weak governance.
Africas population 1 billion in 2009 is growing at close to
2.15 per cent per year (UN 2011), placing increasing demand on
environmental resources. In 2010, some 395 million people, or 40
per cent of the total population, lived in urban areas. By 2040, the
urban population is likely to be 1billion and by 2050, 1.23 billion
60 per cent of the total (UN-Habitat 2010). In Africas cities
characterized by extremes of prosperous centres and poor, informal

settlements many governments struggle to provide social services
including access to water, to achieve food and energy security, and
to manage environmental risks (Figures 9.1 and 9.2). Climate change
and other adverse environmental change may increase urbanization
Figure 9.1 Exposure and vulnerability to floods in

sub-Saharan Africa, 19802010
Change, index 1980=100
300
250
200
Exposure
150
Risk of mortality
100
Vulnerability
50
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: UNISDR 2011
Figure 9.2 Food insecurity in selected Southern African cities, 20082009

% of population
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Gaborone,
Botswana
Maseru,
Lesotho
Food secure
Blantyre,
Maputo, Windhoek, Cape Town, Johannesburg, Msunduzi, Manzini,
Malawi
Mozambique Namibia South Africa South Africa South Africa Swaziland
Lusaka,
Zambia
Harare,
Zimbabwe
Total
Food insecure
The 1996 World Food Summit in Rome agreed that food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sucient,
safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO 1996). This relies on food availability,
accessibility, reliability and quality, as well as acknowledging preference (Frayne et al. 2010; Sen 1981).
Source: Frayne et al. 2010
Africa
235
(UN-Habitat 2010) and further strain governments ability to cope,

leading to greater instability (Mohamed-Katerere 2009).
Climate change by exerting extreme pressure on ecological
systems is likely to increase the stress of vulnerable populations
in urban and rural areas (Boko et al. 2007). More intense rainfall
events contribute to more run-off and floods, threatening food
security and settlements, while longer periods between rains
and changing seasonal patterns contribute to crop loss. Sea level
rise is likely to have significant impacts on coastal settlements,
given the high population in potentially hazardous areas (Nicholls
2004), including Akpakpa in Benin and Lagos in Nigeria, making
climate-sensitive policies critical for conservation and adaptation.

However, most existing policy lacks the framework to address
the complex challenges of human vulnerability to climate change
(Madzwamuse 2010). The adoption of risk reduction strategies,
improved well-being, and better preparedness can result in
reduced vulnerability even in these circumstances. Prospects
are, however, currently limited; Figure 9.1 shows that exposure
to flood and the risk of mortality are outpacing reductions in
vulnerability (UNISDR 2011).
Policies and practices that originate outside the region can
contribute to environmental change. External investments in
Table 9.1 Regionally selected policy goals

Climate change
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC 1992) Article 3
Paragraphs 13
In their actions to achieve the objective of the Convention and to implement its provisions, the Parties shall be
guided, inter alia, by the following:
1. The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind,
on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and
the adverse effects thereof.
2. The specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties, especially those that are
particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, and of those Parties, especially developing
country Parties, that would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden under the Convention, should
be given full consideration.
3. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate
change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full
scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking into account that
policies and measures to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits
at the lowest possible cost. To achieve this, such policies and measures should take into account different
socio-economic contexts, be comprehensive, cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse
gases and adaptation, and comprise all economic sectors. Efforts to address climate change may be carried out
cooperatively by interested Parties.
Land
Implementation (JPOI) (WSSD
2002) Paragraph 40b
Develop and implement integrated land management and water-use plans that are based on sustainable use
of renewable resources and on integrated assessments of socio-economic and environmental potentials and
strengthen the capacity of Governments, local authorities and communities to monitor and manage the quantity
and quality of land and water resources.
Biodiversity
Convention on Biological Diversity Each Contracting Party shall, as far as possible and as appropriate:
(CBD 1992) Article 10: Sustainable (a) integrate consideration of the conservation and sustainable use of biological resources into national
decision-making;
Use of Components of Biological
Diversity
(b) adopt measures relating to the use of biological resources to avoid or minimize adverse impacts on
biological diversity;
(c) protect and encourage customary use of biological resources in accordance with traditional cultural practices
that are compatible with conservation or sustainable use requirements;
(d) support local populations to develop and implement remedial action in degraded areas where biological
diversity has been reduced; and
(e) encourage cooperation between its governmental authorities and its private sector in developing methods for
sustainable use of biological resources.
Freshwater
2002) Paragraph 26c
Improve the efficient use of water resources and promote their allocation among competing uses in a way that
gives priority to the satisfaction of basic human needs and balances the requirement of preserving or restoring
ecosystems and their functions, in particular in fragile environments, with human domestic, industrial and
agriculture needs, including safeguarding drinking water quality.
Oceans and seas

Jakarta Mandate on Marine and
Coastal Biodiversity of the CBD
(CBD 1997)
236
Promote the conservation and sustainable use of coastal and marine ecosystems as well as their natural resources.
A woman carries firewood across a stream in southern Sudan where floodwaters washed away the bridge. Tim McKulka/UN Photo
land deals have increased rapidly as global demands for food

and biofuels have risen some 45 million hectares of such
land investments, 70 per cent of the global total, are in Africa
(Deininger et al. 2009). Frequently, these investments have
adverse impacts on land resources and livelihoods (Cotula et al.
2011). Other examples of external drivers include climate change
and waste disposal practices that have adverse impacts on land
and water quality, and consequently on human health and food
security. This makes the harmonization of policies between
different countries as well as different regions a priority.
Over the last ten years, Africas development approach has
focused on securing growth through resource extraction, especially
in the oil and mining sectors, and expansion of infrastructure. In
the absence of strategic and integrated environmental assessment
and robust accountability systems, this has led to environmental
degradation. For example, weak accountability in decision-making
systems has contributed to forest loss (FAO 2010).
While governance and institutional arrangements vary, some
challenges are of regional significance given the similarities
across nations. Conflicting laws, values and interests in and
between countries adversely affect the ability to develop
the collaborative institutional systems that are essential for
managing ecosystems and responding to common challenges
such as drought (Mohamed-Katerere 2001). At times, this
disparity has resulted in resource conflicts, including over the fair
allocation of land and water (Mohamed-Katerere 2009; Ashton
2000). Inequitable sharing of the benefits and losses of natural
resource management also reduces social-ecological resilience,
often creating conflict as deteriorating conditions in one sphere
affect another (Mohamed-Katerere 2009). Weak land tenure,
insufficient accountability and poor transparency compound this
adverse reality. Sectoral planning that treats the environment as

a set of separate resources rather than as a composite system
further undermines environmental management. In this complex
and unsatisfactory governance context, it is often vulnerable
groups that suffer most (Jger et al. 2007).
POLICY APPRAISAL
This section appraises the selected policy options and shows

that they are often mutually reinforcing, with positive impacts in
more than one thematic domain. For example, developing more
effective accountability measures or strategies for collaboration
are shown to have positive outcomes in diverse policies,
including for marine managed areas and natural solutions for
adaptation and mitigation. Further, the policy options address a
common set of drivers and pressures, as identified in the section
above. Table 9.2 provides insight into these links and also shows
benefits in social, ecological and economic domains. For African
nations under increasing strain and faced with limited resources,
maximizing benefits and synergies among these domains
while reducing trade-offs can help place environmental and
development choices on a path of sustainability.
The appraisal provides broad indicative lessons about conditions
for replication and achieving the policy goals. Simple attribution
of positive outcomes to any one policy is problematic as multiple
factors contribute to success. Weak systems for monitoring
and tracking policy outcomes in social, environmental,
economic and political domains mean that the appraisal relies
primarily on qualitative analysis from peer-reviewed literature
and documented project experience. Some of the identified
policy options are in the early stages of implementation and
consequently show limited impact; nevertheless, current results
suggest potential for up-scaling and replication.
Africa
237
Table 9.2 Mutually reinforcing outcomes through effective implementation of selected policy options
Policy themes and goals
238
Policy options
Biodiversity
Diversity (CBD 1992) Article
10
Freshwater
Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation
(JPOI) (WSSD 2002)
Paragraph 26c
Land
(WSSD 2002) Paragraph
40b
Oceans and seas

Jakarta Mandate of the
CBD (CBD 1997)
Climate change
Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC 1992)
Paragraphs 13
Transboundary
natural resource
management
Improved conservation
through pooling of
management, financial
and human resources;
management improved by
harmonizing approaches
Equitable sharing of
water resources is
ensured, reducing
resource conflict
Livelihood and economic

benefits reduce reliance
on use options that
degrade or deplete
resources
Harmonized crosssector regimes

secure fisheries
while maintaining
conservation
Conservation creates new

mitigation opportunities
and greater availability of
environmental resources
for adaptation
Marine managed
areas
Improved regulation of use

regimes; marine networks
support joint management
Protected breeding
grounds improve fish
stocks; multiple needs
are reconciled with
conservation
Improved ecosystem
services and goods
support adaptation and
mitigation
Regional
approaches for
marine pollution
management
Improved ecosystem
quality and resilience
enhance biodiversity
Ecosystem restoration
helps maintain social
and environmental
benefits
The reduction of pollution

secures livelihood
resources that support
adaptation
Payment for
ecosystem
services and
biodiversity
offsets
Improved local incomes

while strengthening
conservation perspectives;
conservation of offset sites
Better valuation
of water resources
leading to incentives
to protect wetlands
and water catchments
Improved social,
ecological and economic
benefits; diversified
income opportunities
reduce land pressures
Recognition of the value

of the ocean as a carbon
sink and for its tourism
value helps protect
coastal ecosystems
Diverse carbon sinks

are secured; enhanced
ecosystem services
support adaptation and
disaster risk reduction
Reducing
Emissions from
Deforestation
and Forest
Degradation
(REDD+)
Enhanced biodiversity
conservation as forest
ecosystems are restored
and maintained
Water catchments
are protected; water
quality is maintained
or improved
Diverse income
opportunities reduce
pressure on land
An extended REDD+
(mangroves and
seagrass beds) leads to
fisheries recovery
Increased earnings and

improved ecosystem
services support
adaptation; mitigation is
enhanced
Integrated
coastal zone
management
Improved conservation is
achieved
Saltwater intrusion is
reduced
Saltwater intrusion is
reduced
Fisheries improve as
coastal ecosystems are
restored
Increased availability of
ecosystem goods and
services for adaptation
Sustainable land
management
Biodiversity outside
protected areas is used
sustainably
Available water is
more efficiently used;
water sources are
protected and quality
is enhanced
Land productivity is
improved through
input-use efficiency and
rainfall-use efficiency
Coastal systems are

restored as agricultural
pollutants are reduced
The conservation of
natural systems and
more efficient land/water
use secures valuable
resources for adaptation
Human rights
Opportunities are
enhanced for resource
custodians to protect
valuable ecosystems
from pollution and nonsustainable use
Water security is
improved, providing
a fairer distribution
mechanism
Tenure and other rights

support improved
livelihoods
Citizens protect marine

resources through
action against polluters
Local resilience and

adaptation are enhanced
by securing access to
resources
Local, inclusive
and participatory
approaches
Local and indigenous

knowledge supports
restoration and
conservation; improved
social benefits encourage
long-term perspectives
Additional livelihood
resources are available,
reducing land pressure;
long-term perspectives
inform local decisions
Coastal resources
are more effectively
used to support local
livelihoods
Adaptation is
strengthened as
local knowledge and
perspectives help define
solutions
Water harvesting
The rehabilitation of water

catchments supports
ecosystem and habitat
recovery
Water security is
enhanced as supply
is improved
Land productivity and

food security is improved
Natural solutions
for adaptation to
and mitigation of
climate change
Restored ecosystems
support biodiversity
recovery, including of wild
crops
Reduced saltwater
intrusion from
mangrove restoration
secures freshwater
Grassland restoration
provides pasture and
crop biodiversity and
reduces likelihood
of conversion
Stakeholder
pollution
management
Biodiversity recovers as
pollution is reduced
Improved human
health; river integrity
is restored; water
resources are better
valued by users
Coping capacity is
enhanced through
improved access to water;
flood risk is reduced as
run-off is captured
Mangrove restoration
leads to recovery of
coastal systems and
fisheries
Crop biodiversity,
pasture, fisheries and
other ecosystem goods
support adaptation; risk
is reduced as ecosystems
are more secure
Coastal and marine

systems recover as
pollutants are reduced
Reduced flood risk and

improved human health
contribute to resilience
and capacity to cope with
climate change
Transboundary natural resource management
Transboundary approaches to environmental and natural

resource management contribute to achieving the agreed goals
(Table 9.1) in all thematic areas (Table 9.2). There are many
examples of successful transboundary initiatives throughout
Africa (Huggins et al. 2006; Jones and Chonguia 2001; Wilkie
et al. 2001), although there are significant variations in their
focus, structure, delivery and scope.
These approaches demonstrate success in minimizing biodiversity
loss, supporting integrated land and water management,
improving local benefits, contributing to fairer and more equitable
resource sharing including of ground- and surface water, and
improving climate mitigation and the availability of resources for
adaptation (Boxes 9.1 and 9.2) (Dudley et al. 2010). Importantly,
transboundary approaches often enhance cooperation and
reduce conflict by facilitating dialogue, establishing networks
including of marine protected areas and encouraging learning
and knowledge sharing (Abdulla et al. 2009; Huggins et al. 2006;
Mohamed-Katerere 2001; Rodgers et al. 2001). This helps create
the political stability needed for economic and development
cooperation. There are, however, many challenges.
Transboundary approaches are inherently complex processes
involving many actors, issues and agendas. Strengthening dialogue
can contribute to achieving consensus (Box 9.2) (Conca and
Dabelko 2002), but reaching it is nonetheless challenging
(Ervin et al. 2010). Efforts to bring different countries and
sectors of society together can create rifts and alienate some
Box 9.1 The Sangha Tri-National Landscape

The Sangha Tri-National Landscape (TNS) consists of three
national parks Lobk (Cameroon), Nouabal-Ndoki
(Congo) and Dzanga-Ndoki (Central African Republic)
covering 4.52 million hectares. This area includes logging
concessions, community use zones and hunting areas.
The TNS economy is based on the extractive use of timber,
bushmeat, palm wine and fish, which provide support to
indigenous communities. The goal is to ensure that all use
is sustainable. However, the actual impact of this extractive
economy on the socio-economic conditions of local people is not
easy to quantify because communities are somewhat diffuse.
Biological surveys show healthy populations of endangered
wild species, notably elephants and great apes. The TNS also
helps maintain the integrity of species migratory patterns.
Experience to date indicates that harmonization is required in
transnational legislation for forestry, indigenous land use and
hunting. True and just compensation for the areas indigenous
communities needs greater attention and analysis.
Source: Usongo 2010; Breuer 2009
Box 9.2 Collaborative water management: Organization

for the Development of the Senegal River Basin
In 1974, the Organization for the Development of the Senegal
River Basin (OMVS) was established by Mali, Mauritania
and Senegal as a supra-national authority to agree water
allocation and dam management principles (Varis et al.
2006). Water entitlements of riparian countries are made on
the basis of demand from three sectors navigation, energy
and irrigation as negotiated by the parties, and not on the
basis of volume demand.
Successes include irrigation of some 375 000 hectares in
Senegal, Mali and Mauritania, the provision of 200 megawatts
of electricity to the three countries (Madamombe 2005), and
securing year-round navigation of a 900-km stretch of the
river from Kayes to Saint-Louis, supporting livelihoods for
many. A saltwater prevention barrage near the estuary, the
Diama Dam, and flood control measures provide support for
farmers practising flood-recession agriculture near the dam. In
addition, the OMVS has contributed to political and regional
cooperation, reducing the potential for conflict and increasing
investment in basin resource management.
Despite this success, the complicated institutional setup of OMVS has not always been able to deal effectively
with conflicts (Varis et al. 2006). Furthermore, lack of
harmonization of OMVS and national action presents
challenges for basin management.
communities (Muboko 2011), and scaled-up management may

marginalize local users from decision making and reduce access to
valuable livelihood resources (Whande 2010). Implementation can
also be impeded by ill-defined rights to land and resources, weak
governance processes, and conflicting interests and goals (Katerere
et al. 2001). Consequently, the development and harmonization
of laws and policy are essential (Mohamed-Katerere 2001).
The rapid increase in transboundary natural resource management
demonstrates that this policy, despite some challenges, has
high potential for replication and for managing Africas diverse
shared ecosystems. For example, given that 75 per cent of African
countries are coastal and that 70 per cent of river basins are
shared by two or more countries, collaborative governance is
essential for sustainable approaches.
Marine managed areas
Marine managed areas are part of a suite of approaches applied

in Africa that contribute directly to achieving the oceans and seas
goal, and also to the biodiversity and climate change goals by
securing coastal ecosystems and environmental services.
The objectives of marine managed areas which often include
strictly protected no-take zones or other marine protected
Africa
239
challenging. Consequently they are often smaller and wider apart

than is ecologically viable (Abdulla et al. 2009).
Establishing managed marine areas can be an effective
alternative, as they include multiple management zones and
protected no-take zones. The information required for the
design of such no-take zones can be obtained through rigorous
quantitative research in a few representative sites combined
with comprehensive surveys of traditional knowledge (Johannes
1998). Once designated, many managed marine areas face a lack
of adequate resources for proper enforcement of regulations.
However, alternative enforcement approaches can be used,
including local community guards (Andrews 1998). An added
advantage of managed marine areas is that they can control
any unsustainable use that is displaced by fully protected notake zones. Individually, however, countries may be unable to
address this as use may occur in areas beyond their legislative
jurisdiction, such as the high seas, all of which suggests a
need for more collaborative and transboundary approaches.
For example, Africas widest network of managed marine areas,
which stretches over 23 sites in six countries of Western Africa
Cape Verde, the Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania
and Senegal has had considerable success in ensuring that
fisheries, tourism, and oil and gas development do not adversely
affect the marine ecosystem and its biological resources
(Karibuhoye 2008).
Fish drying. The successful implementation of policies that enhance
fish stocks improves the food security of millions of Africans who rely
on fish for protein. Jacoline Schoonees
areas in addition to multi-use areas complement a broad

range of national development and economic goals other than
biodiversity conservation. These goals include improved food
security, better livelihoods, effective governance and sustained
economic growth. Managed areas complement other regulatory
policies such as fisheries and water quality management. For
example, five-year rotational harvesting in managed areas off
the east coast of South Africa contributes to the rapid recovery of
oyster populations during fallow years (de Bruyn et al. 2009).
Although the establishment of marine protected areas has
often been relied on to improve marine conservation, they face
multiple challenges. Disparities in governance, institutional
capacities, wealth distribution, social capital and availability
of ecological data can affect both their establishment and
their effectiveness (Abdulla et al. 2009, 2008). In some cases,
marine protected areas face opposition from adversely impacted
sectors of society. For example, tourism operators resisted the
establishment of marine protected areas in Kenya because they
could not afford the licensing fees, protective clothing, insurance
and equipment required by new regulations (Weru 2004). Local
fishers who are excluded from their previous fishing zones may
also oppose protected area development (Apostolaki et al.
2002). In addition, many countries cannot afford comprehensive
research on all marine habitats within their jurisdiction, making
the identification and development of marine protected areas
240
Africas 45 649-km coastline (Vafeidis et al. 2005), which

encompasses 33 of the regions 48 mainland countries and
Box 9.3 A network of managers in the Mediterranean

The establishment of an ecological network of effective
marine managed areas requires a multidisciplinary and multilevel approach, with strong commitment from governmental
and non-governmental organizations as well as the scientific
community. Although governance and legal challenges have
halted the implementation of transboundary environmental
policies in Northern Africa (Abdulla et al. 2008), international
cooperation platforms provide a significant opportunity
to achieve ecosystem conservation targets. In the
Mediterranean, UNEP and the conservation organization WWF
partnered to create MedPAN, a network of marine protected
area managers that connects more than 40 marine managed
areas and supports them to work on a number of coordinated
and common initiatives (MedPAN 2011). The network is a
tool and a neutral platform for non-governmental and local
governmental agencies to deliver services in an efficient
way. The partnership has proved successful for the transfer
of knowledge, and improved management capacity, data
collection, and monitoring and evaluation. This ultimately
supports a bottom-up approach, which contributes to
building a constituency of practitioners able to influence
decision makers on the conservation of marine resources.
six island nations, illustrates the importance of strengthening

marine management. Up-scaling managed areas and establishing
a network is a step beyond the more traditional approach of
establishing them opportunistically as single independent
entities. Through interconnections and interdependencies,
the individual elements of the network contribute positively to
each others integrity by decreasing overall vulnerability. Marine
food webs extend beyond the boundaries of individual areas,
and fishers are dependent on different species and geographic
regions at different times of the year. Tourism revenues from
an accessible managed area with charismatic species can help
subsidize the maintenance costs of more remote places with no
other values that can be easily captured through current market
mechanisms. Many biophysical and socio-economic connections
overlap national boundaries, and regional cooperation can
promote national interests. Currently unmanaged areas merit
priority attention within a larger managed area framework
(Abdulla et al. 2009). As part of a regional marine conservation
agenda, the formation of managed networks in those areas where
coverage is minimal and urgently needed including Northern
Africa (Mediterranean Sea), northeast Africa (the Red Sea),
the Gulf of Guinea and Southern Africa has seen some initial
successes (Box 9.3).
Regional approaches to marine pollution management

Regional approaches that include a mix of self-regulated,
state-enforced and collaborative management are effective in
addressing the multiple drivers and diverse scales of marine
pollution, and hence in achieving the selected goal for oceans
and seas. A reduction in marine pollution also contributes to the
biodiversity and climate change goals (Table 9.2).
Coastal urban growth contributes to residential effluent, industrial

discharges, storm-water run-off, agricultural and mining leaching,
contaminated groundwater seepage, and industrial and vehicle
exhaust fumes that enter the marine environment. The coastal
cities of Accra in Ghana, Douala in Cameroon, Lagos and Port
Harcourt in Nigeria and Luanda in Angola, for example, are all
adversely affected by industrial pollutants (Ibe and Sherman
2002). Oil spillage and discharge from marine transport present
major management and regulatory challenges, especially for oilproducing countries such as Libya and Nigeria, where problems
are severe (Golik et al. 1988). Offshore exploration, especially
for oil (GEF et al. 2006), contributes to pollution from dumping at
sea, accidental and intentional oil spills, engine leaks and noise
(Abdulla and Linden 2008).
Comprehensive regional marine pollution conventions govern the
four major African coastal regions. The Convention for Co-operation
in the Protection and Development of the Marine and Coastal
Environment of the West and Central African Region (Abidjan
Convention) and the Regional Convention for the Conservation
of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Environment (Jeddah Convention),
and their associated protocols, provide important regulatory
mechanisms for high-use areas and employ a self-regulatory
approach. The benefit of self-regulation is that it is quick to
respond, flexible, and sensitive to market circumstances (Osborn
and Datta 2006). The primary drawback is that the responsibility

falls on the industry to control pollution (Buckley 1994), and
the incentives to do so may be insufficient. Waste exchange
programmes, initiated under the Guinea Current Large Marine
Ecosystem programme, have effectively supported waste
reduction and ecosystem recovery (Ukwe and Ibe 2010). In
Ghana, this has focused on using the waste from one industry as
raw material for another.
Action plans to increase the capacity of port waste reception
facilities have been developed regionally, although on-the-ground
progress has been limited. For example, the Benguela Current
Large Marine Ecosystem programme has promoted the sharing
of facilities between ports in the Benguela and Guinea Current
regions through assessment of reception facilities, technical
training needs and regional capacity requirements as related to
the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from
Ships 1973, as modified by its 1978 Protocol (MARPOL 73/78)
(Awad 2008). This process has increased the involvement of key
regional stakeholders and advanced some key operational areas
of the convention. The Port Management Association of West
and Central Africa incorporates marine pollution compliance and
requires further investment from ports and industry partners.
The need to address the shortage of technical management
capacity has been tackled by the International Ocean Institute
Southern Africa through targeted regional training for countries
of Western Africa. The existing network of large marine ecosystem
programmes, port management associations and regional
conventions provides further opportunity for replication of this
model. Tax-based policies can complement this approach by
extending a companys liability for environmental damage,
although a common argument against tax-based policies is that
they give the right to pollute if they are not punitive enough.
When citizens have standing in the courts they can serve as an
important check on industrial practice, as the Niger Delta Ogoni
case demonstrates, a case that is also pertinent to the policy
option on human rights. This in turn provides an incentive for
improved environmental performance.
Although the regional conventions and their protocols are
relatively comprehensive in addressing the various marine
pollution issues, significant risks remain due to the lack of
implementation of these regimes in some countries. But
successes exist as demonstrated by developments under the
Convention for the Protection, Management and Development of
the Marine and Coastal Environment of the Eastern African Region
(Nairobi Convention) (Box 9.4).
With a network consisting of existing regional International
Maritime Organization (IMO) offices in Western and Eastern
Africa, various regional conventions, and the regional seas
and large marine ecosystem programmes, it is clear that the
appropriate policy platforms are in place to combat marine
pollution. However, there is a paucity of capacity for management
in terms of equipment, technical training and institutional
support, as well as for implementing existing policies, making
investment in these areas a priority.
Africa
241
Box 9.4 Successful pollution management in the

Western Indian Ocean
Box 9.5 The Ambatovy Business and Biodiversity

Offsets Programme (BBOP), Madagascar
The Nairobi Convention (UNEP 1985) has been instrumental

in developing and implementing marine pollution
management projects in the Western Indian Ocean, which
includes Eastern Africa and the regions island countries.
Biodiversity offsets conservation activities designed to

deliver biodiversity benefits in compensation for losses, in
a measurable way are included in the Madagascar Action
Plan 20072012 as priority projects.
An operational platform provided by the convention which

brought global investment for the development of policy and
management frameworks was the key strength that led
to successful policy initiation and implementation. Other
critical features are the IMO regional office in Nairobi and
the Agulhas and Somali Currents Large Marine Ecosystem
project, which provide additional technical support,
including assistance in developing national contingency
and action plans.
In 2004, the Ambatovy Mining Project adopted the BBOP

project, which includes an off-site offset area of 11 600
hectares of endangered forest, 4 900 hectares of onsite conservation zones and a forest corridor to ensure
connectivity with remaining eastern rainforests. Support is
also given to an adjacent Ramsar wetland and reforestation.
The BBOP process led to the integration of the project into
local, regional and national plans. Support for capacity
building has increased the potential for successful replication.
Project development and implementation underpin the

conventions success. For example, the World Bank/GEF-funded
Western Indian Ocean Highway Development and Coastal
Marine Contamination Prevention Project, implemented through
the Indian Ocean Commission and the South African Maritime
Safety Authority, has the following goals:
development of an electronically supported marine highway
system for ship guidance and monitoring within the region;
further extension and implementation of the Indian Ocean
Memorandum of Understanding on Port State Control; and
building capacity for coastal sensitivity mapping and oilspill response.
The project has, however, faced multiple challenges. Since

2006, agreements with the local communities not to expand
agriculture and environmentally degrading activities have
been breached. This demonstrates the difficulty of achieving
consensus when livelihood opportunities are lost. Developing
a third-party mechanism to verify claims could ensure
fairness and equity in making trade-offs. Other barriers to
success relate to difficulties in identifying sites with similar
environmental characteristics and comparable biological
diversity as offset sites.
Current project success includes the development of a joint

draft regional contingency plan. A Regional Coordination Centre
for Marine Pollution Preparedness and Response is envisaged
to develop a secretariat that would implement the plan.
Source: Jackson 2011
Payment for ecosystem services and biodiversity

offsets
Innovative mechanisms such as payment for ecosystem services

and biodiversity offsets contribute to achieving all the identified
goals (Table 9.1) by encouraging, compensating and rewarding
environmental custodians for maintaining or restoring valued
environmental services (Swallow et al. 2009).
A growing portfolio of payment for ecosystem services in Africa
demonstrates benefits for both nature and people, including for
watershed services in Eastern and Southern Africa (Stanton et
al. 2010). Biodiversity offset programmes have been adopted
in Ghana, Guinea, Madagascar and South Africa (Madsen et al.
2010). Payment for ecosystem services and offset approaches
have also been used to support eco-labelling and community
tourism, to protect fragile and valued habitats including forests,
242
Source: Ambatovy Project 2009; Republic of Madagascar 2006
mangroves and coral reefs (Box 9.5) (Swallow et al. 2009), and to
sequester carbon (REDD+).
Despite some positive outcomes from these approaches,
barriers to success remain (Wunder 2008; Landell-Mills and
Porras 2002). Opportunities for local communities continue to
be limited: for example, large landowners or companies supply
most biodiversity offsets (Box 9.5) even though low-income
communities could be competitive suppliers of biodiversity
compensation (Milder et al. 2010). The weak negotiating capacity
of communities makes it difficult for them to participate and
secure livelihood benefits that exceed their opportunity costs
(Swallow et al. 2009; Wunder 2005).
There is considerable potential for expanding payment for
ecosystem services in Africa (Table 9.3), as the region lags
behind others in developing such approaches (Dillaha et al.
2007). In the global carbon offset market for 2011, for example,
Africa accounted for less than 3 per cent of emission reduction
projects, albeit the region has seen a strong growth trend in
the past few years (UNEP Risoe Centre 2011). Enabling factors
include agreeing to a set of principles; strengthening the legal
framework including certification and capacity building of buyers
Table 9.3 Estimated numbers of low-income households likely to benefit from payment for ecosystem
services in developing countries within the next two decades
Buyer
Ecosystem service
Public sector
Private,
regulated
Private,
voluntary
Consumers of ecocertified products
Total number of
beneficiaries
Biodiversity conservation
Hundreds of
thousands
Millions
Hundreds of
thousands
Millions
1015 million
Watershed protection
Tens of millions
Hundreds of
thousands
Hundreds of
thousands
Fewer than 100000
80100 million
Carbon sequestration
Fewer than 100000
Tens of millions
Millions
Fewer than 100000
2550 million
Landscape beauty or recreation
Hundreds of
thousands
Only a few
Millions
Fewer than 100000
58 million
Source: Milder et al. 2010
and sellers; encouraging participation by small-scale players by

granting them land title or use, access or co-management rights;
focusing on long-term livelihood assets rather than on shortterm benefits; reducing corruption and rent-seeking; creating
a more transparent business framework; and facilitating bi- and
multilateral knowledge-sharing initiatives (Milder et al. 2010;
Swallow et al. 2009; Wunder 2005).
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest

Degradation

(REDD+), including the role of conservation, sustainable management
of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks, is a payment
for ecosystem services mechanism currently being negotiated
under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC). Various multilateral processes are underway
to support countries in preparing for REDD+ implementation.
With the right safeguards in place, REDD+ could support climate
mitigation through carbon sequestration the climate change
goal and could also address important social and environmental
dimensions that could lead to improved livelihoods. Depending
on design, REDD+ initiatives may also offer new incentives for
addressing the biodiversity and freshwater goals by enhancing
forests and the land goal by reducing economic reliance on
land-degrading activities. If the current focus is extended beyond
terrestrial forests to include mangroves (Crooks et al. 2011),
REDD+ equivalents could also support realization of the oceans
and seas and land goals (Table 9.2).
Although REDD+ is in its preparatory phase, there are some
readiness activities, pilot projects and bi-lateral initiatives as
well as carbon sequestration projects from which lessons can
be garnered. Preliminary evidence suggests benefits for climate
mitigation and the environment as well as for people, primarily
through supplementary income (Box 9.6) (Bond et al. 2010;
Madeira 2009).
Early lessons from carbon sequestration projects suggest that

unless several challenges facing REDD+ are resolved, marketbased approaches could fail to achieve positive outcomes, or
might even increase global emissions (Davis 2011; Horta 2009).
Box 9.6 Mozambique: A pilot project in the voluntary

carbon market
A voluntary carbon credit project established in 2003 in Sofala
Province of Mozambique has helped reduce poverty in the
region, which is still suffering from the impacts of the civil war.
By late 2009, the project included 1 510 farmers who rely on
subsistence farming, wood gathering and hunting. Between
2003 and 2009, carbon credits totalling US$1.3 million were
sold, corresponding to 156 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2)
at an average price of US$9.0 per tonne. Farmers received a
third of the income, the initiating company received a third
and its local non-profit subsidiary received a third for project
monitoring and evaluation. The project increased rural
employment from 8.6 per cent to 32 per cent, whilst 73 per
cent of households raised commercial crops compared with
23 per cent previously. There was a measurable increase in
literacy and the development of a business ethos and skills.
The main difficulties revolved around measuring and evaluating
carbon sequestration, including establishing a baseline and
assessing increases in stocks. Existing satellite data were found
to be insufficient, and community management and governance
presented further challenges. Earnings were reduced by the
relatively high costs of carbon sequestration, at US$3.4 per
tonne of CO2, and by the inability to sell all the credits.
Source: Grace et al. 2010
Africa
243
Africa where significant deforestation is taking place (FAO 2011).

The inclusion of these dry forests and woodlands would expand
the relevance and impact of a post-Kyoto REDD+ mechanism
(Hansen et al. 2010).
Africas dryland forests are still poorly incorporated in REDD+. Yemi Katerere
For success, REDD+ needs to address the enabling factors

identified under the payment for ecosystem services policy
option, and must also ensure that:
earnings exceed opportunities foregone from agriculture and
the fuelwood market (Bond et al. 2010);
secure carbon rights that encourage equitable benefit
distribution, reduce the potential for conflict, and discourage
forest conversion are adopted (Makhado et al. 2011);
enforceable social and environmental safeguards, such as
free, prior and informed consent measures, are effective in
reducing adverse impacts;
systems for accurate measurement, monitoring and reporting
of emissions (Makhado et al. 2011) are implemented;
reduced implementation costs are achieved;
effective intersectoral cooperation is established.
A potentially important limitation of REDD+ is that the current
UNFCCC forest definition excludes vast areas of open forests,
generally in the dry tropics, and therefore overlooks important
carbon stocks, for example in much of Eastern and Southern
As significant carbon stocks are held in coastal systems (Crooks

et al. 2011) and soils, carbon credit schemes could be built
into the design of new marine protected areas as public-private
partnerships to enhance management and financing. Addressing
the specific circumstances of communities and organizations
running these REDD+ initiatives is also important, as in coastal
zones their investments may be at risk from natural disasters. A
further challenge for REDD+ is that climate mitigation activities
are poorly integrated with adaptation and development. This is
particularly problematic given Africas high levels of poverty and
vulnerability to climate change.
Integrated coastal zone management
Integrated coastal zone management provides a management

framework that takes into account complex, non-linear
interactions between and within human and ecological systems
and across temporal and spatial domains, and consequently
takes a significant step towards coherent management of
entire ecosystems. It prioritizes the land-sea interface with the
objective of balancing economic development and environmental
protection, consequently contributing to all five selected goals
(Tables 9.1 and 9.2).
The number of African coastal countries adopting integrated coastal
zone management increased from five in 1993 to 13 in 2000
(Gustavson et al. 2008); this is supported by specific commitments
to integrated management in regional agreements (Table 9.4).
As a cross-sectoral approach, integrated coastal zone
management involves all levels of governance and encourages
the involvement of all stakeholders (Hewawasam 2000; Post and
Lundin 1996). This is well illustrated for Eastern Africas coastal
countries in the operation of the Secretariat for Eastern Africa
Table 9.4 Selected regional approaches

Agreement
Africa region
Significant feature

protocol of the Barcelona Convention
(UNEP 1976)
Northern Africa
Parties committed to introducing integrated coastal zone management

in national and regional policies and adopting regional and national
action plans
Nairobi Convention (UNEP 1985)
Eastern Africa and Indian Ocean National approaches ensure economic growth amongst coastal
island countries
communities through the sustainable use of coastal resources (World
Bank 2011; Gustavson et al. 2008)
Regional Coastal Management Programme Eastern Africa and Indian Ocean Provides assistance to seven countries in applying integrated management
of the Indian Ocean countries (ReCoMaP)
island countries
principles to national policies and practice, reducing poverty amongst the
coastal population (ReCoMaP 2011)
Accra Declaration (1998)
Southern and Western Africa
Water pollution control and biodiversity conservation policies integrated

into the Gulf of Guinea Large Marine Ecosystem project
Source: Milder et al. 2010
244
Box 9.7 Action and commitment at regional and

national levels
Although action and commitment to integrated coastal
management is growing, multiple institutional challenges
persist. The Toliary region of southwestern Madagascar
suffers from a range of human-induced environmental
problems. While these have been reduced using integrated
coastal zone management, greater success has been
hindered by a lack of regional coordination (Bill and
Rochette 2010; Bill 2008). Specific challenges relate to the
lack of clearly defined work programmes, procedures and
regular coordination meetings.
On the other hand, the Coastal Area Management
Programme (CAMP) in the Mediterranean, which includes
projects in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, applies
integrated management principles at multiple scales.
This includes engagement at the local level, integration
in policies and strategies at national and regional levels,
and engaging at wider international and Mediterranean
basin levels through cooperation and exchange with the
Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment
and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean (Barcelona
Convention). Challenges include the lack of continuous
financial commitment that has resulted in many projects
being halted, inadequate public participation, poor
visibility of the projects and an absence of appropriate
national legal frameworks (Gonzlez-Riancho et al. 2009;
SMAP III 2009).
Coastal Area Management and in South Africa (DEAT 2011; MCM/

DEAT 2000). Success requires action and commitment at regional
and national levels (Box 9.7).
Experience demonstrates that the integrated coastal zone
management protocol of the Barcelona Convention could be
strengthened substantially through the use of spatial planning
tools. Although these have been used terrestrially for decades,
the broader marine community has only recently adopted
them. New technologies, including remote sensing, geographic
information systems (GIS) and spatial modelling, provide vastly
improved capacity to replicate the spatial structure of nature
in models of human-environment interactions, and support a
strategic decision-making process that creates a blueprint for
ocean use. A key strength of these technologies is that they
explicitly recognize that there are valid competing demands
on natural resources and that ecosystem-based management
solutions must work within the capacity of the local communities.
As a result, these tools encourage the development of equitable
and viable solutions to the conservation of socio-ecological
systems (Bode et al. 2008).
Sustainable land management
Sustainable land management can strengthen the management

of water and land while incorporating social and economic values.
Consequently, it supports achievement of the land and freshwater
goals and contributes to the biodiversity, oceans and seas, and
climate change goals (Tables 9.1 and 9.2).
An example of this approach is the TerrAfrica initiative. This
multi-partner platform for consultation and action includes
intergovernmental and civil society organizations. In partnership
Box 9.8 Sustainable land management in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia

Experience in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia under the
Global Mechanism of the United Nations Convention to
Combat Desertification (UNCCD) suggests that small-scale
investments and improved farm and community practices
can form the basis for scaled-up national sustainable land
management programmes.
In Burkina Faso, the Gestion des Terroirs approach involves
community-based land management, creates awareness of
environmental degradation and land conservation, supports
development by local government of new regulations for
natural resource management, and encourages the adoption
of sustainable land management. This includes soil fertility
management, mixed farming, the use of organic manure and
other agricultural inputs, and water and soil conservation
techniques. Traditional approaches for soil restoration and
fertilization include, respectively, the use of stone cordons
(diguettes) and organic farming methods. The data show that the
use of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers without investment in
sustainable management is often inefficient and uneconomical,
suggesting that stronger links need to be made between
agricultural production and sustainable land management.
The Ethiopia Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable
land management presents a strategy for scaling-up such
activities based on best practice. The National Sustainable
Land Management Platform has been established and will
be replicated at regional level. The programme will cover
177 watersheds in eight regions over five years, based on
the model of participatory watershed management. Local
involvement in design and priority setting, along with
improvements in water availability and food production, can
catalyse the spread of existing sustainable land management
technologies as farmers learn from each other.
Source: UNCCD/FAO 2010, 2009; TerrAfrica 2009
Africa
245
with the governments of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Namibia and

Uganda, TerrAfrica supports country-level approaches. Dialogue
on sustainable land management has been initiated in several
countries including Eritrea, the Gambia, Malawi, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria and Senegal. The success of TerrAfrica, including in Burkina
Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique and Uganda, suggests a
high potential for integrated and participatory land management
approaches to be replicated in other countries (Box 9.8).
Recognizing that addressing climate change as part of
sustainable land management is essential to ensure adaptation
and address climate-related land changes (Pender et al. 2009),
TerrAfrica established climate change as a core priority in 2009.
Adaptation policies should complement farmers responses to
climate change, including water harvesting and natural solutions
such as ecosystem restoration (Table 9.2) (Below et al. 2010).
Sustainable land management approaches appear to be most
successful where there is high-level political support and when
they build upon local knowledge and practice. This contributes
to creating effective stakeholder coalitions and platforms,
improving the development, management and dissemination
of knowledge, and more effectively leveraging the investments
required for sustainable management activities.
An on-going challenge in establishing sustainable management
is land tenure insecurity. Many governments are rectifying
this through land tenure reform: for example, Nigers Rural
Code establishes a framework for protecting and revitalizing
pastoralism, where previous policies favoured crop farmers
Box 9.9 The land rights challenge in Mozambique

Mozambiques 1997 Land Law recognizes individual and
collective tenure rights and embraces customary African
law. Local authorities have control over the delimitation and
allocation of land-use rights, the resolution of disputes and
resource management (Kanji et al. 2006; Burr 2005). The
law also protects various human rights including womens
rights, customary land claims to uncultivated fields and
rights of way, and the rights of internally displaced people
all consistent with rights in international law. The Land
Law also expands consultation and the bargaining power of
communities. Outside investors, for example, are required
to negotiate with customary rights holders to obtain leases
within the customary area (CTC 2003; Norfolk and Liversage
2001). Such arrangements, however, are not easy for
communities to negotiate and tend to be manipulated by
politicians and other influential people (Brown 2003; Hanlon
2002). In some instances, communities are not fully aware
of the provisions of the Land Law. An added challenge is
that government officials responsible for implementing the
law often have little awareness either of the rights or of the
procedures for securing them (Serra and Tanner 2008).
246
(Jamart 2011). It has promoted the preservation of pastoral

areas and protected herders rights to collective use since 1993,
including rights to move their livestock in search of water and
pasture (Jamart 2011). In 2010 the Rural Code was modified to
address outstanding ambiguities. For example, although the
code established land commissions as representative organs in
which all stakeholders participate, people still turn to religious
and customary leaders first to resolve any land issue. A remaining
challenge is to stop the encroachment of pastoral areas by
croplands as farmers migrate north under demographic pressure.
Mozambiques experience (Box 9.9) demonstrates that in
replicating sustainable land management and land tenure,
greater attention must be given to community empowerment and
the capacity of state implementing agencies. Given the similarity
in land-use systems across Africa, these approaches could be
replicated in other countries.
Human rights
Policy approaches that incorporate human rights contribute to

the selected freshwater goal (Box 9.10), the land goal through
better recognition of local tenure (Box 9.9), and the biodiversity
and oceans and seas goals by holding decision makers
accountable for decisions that adversely affect the environment.
Importantly, these approaches support the achievement of the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) at the same time as
delivering benefits to the environment (Campese et al. 2009).
Conversely, a lack of rights is often synonymous with high levels
of vulnerability (ICHRP 2008; Jger et al. 2007), as experience
with external investments in land deals in Africa illustrates
(Cotula 2011; Locher 2011).
Human rights are important for protecting people and the
environment when there are strong incentives for natural
resource exploitation (Bond and Dugard 2007), as is the case
in much of Africa. Governance rights, including participation
and free prior informed consent, help ensure that local peoples
rights are taken into account. Human rights provide a benchmark
for making sustainable choices and encouraging equitable and
non-discriminatory outcomes (ICHRP 2008). Once decisions have
been made, litigation can provide a basis for their evaluation.
In Nigeria, communities have used human rights law to oppose
oil exploration that has adversely affected agricultural land and
biodiversity, including for example in the court case Kenule
Beeson Saro-Wiwa, President of the Movement for the Survival of
the Ogoni People (MOSOP) and Eight Others, unreported 1995
(Frynas 1999; Idowu 1999). In 2002, the African Commission on
Human and Peoples rights found that under the African Charter
the Nigerian government has an obligation to protect the wellbeing of the Ogoni People (Social and Economic Rights Centre
v Nigeria). Giving effect to this decision would limit the way in
which oil exploration takes place and ensure protection of the
environment, health and livelihoods.
Governance based on human rights may appear to be
cumbersome, but it encourages rigour in decision making and
ensures that multiple issues and values are taken into account.
Box 9.10 Recognizing a human right to water can promote fairer access
The South African constitution provides a right of access to
sufficient water, implemented through the Free Basic Water
Policy 42/2001. Many impoverished households benefit from
secure access (within 200 metres of the household) to at least
25 litres of water per person per day for domestic use (Mehta
2005). This is equivalent to the World Health Organizations
recommendation for minimum consumption, though it does
not cover broader health and livelihood needs.
Positive outcomes include a saving of the time and effort
women and girls spend collecting water, freeing them
to engage in other activities, and less need to resort to
unprotected water sources, thus reducing vulnerability to
water-borne disease (Mehta 2005). In addition, citizens
attribute such policies directly to good governance, and
this in turn can support long-term political stability.
A major challenge for the policy is to strike a balance
between the human benefits and the cost implications
(DWAF 2002a). However, improvements in human well-being
are seen as outweighing the associated costs (Stalk 2004).
Decentralization of the responsibility for water provisioning to
In the long term, human rights approaches encourage political

stability and good social relations. However, they can be severely
limited by costs (Box 9.10) (Larson 2010), and the capacity of
rights holders to claim, protect and enjoy their rights is adversely
affected by lack of access to information and knowledge, of
access to justice and of capacity.
the district level has encouraged the municipalities to become

more innovative (Stalk 2004), although some find it costly
(DWAF 2002b).
Failure to provide the legally guaranteed quantity has resulted
in citizens instituting litigation. In the 2009 Constitutional
Court case Mazibuko v City of Johannesburg, the court found
that the state is required to take reasonable legislative and
other measures, within available resources, to achieve the
right to water (Larson 2010). Given cost and other barriers, the
policy is still to be implemented in rural areas.
Other institutional and organizational challenges include the
lack of community access to information and capacity. This
case study demonstrates that critical enabling factors include:
addressing the principle of cost recovery;
identifying target groups;
ensuring financing;
managing demand;
building capacity;
improving access to information; and
facilitating the expansion of infrastructure.
in 1998, was designed to complement this role but is poorly

utilized. For many, the lack of rights of individuals, groups, and
non-governmental organizations to initiate legal action is a critical
limitation on the effective use of the court by the public. Mali and
Burkina Faso have granted individuals and non-governmental
organizations direct access to the court (Wachira 2008).
Notwithstanding these and other challenges, there is potential

for replication. Human rights perspectives are increasingly
recognized in conservation and governance (Boxes 9.9 and
9.10). The United Nations recognized a right to water in 2010
(UNGA 2010). The African Commission on Human and Peoples
Rights found that failing to provide basic services such as water
is a violation of the environmental right in the African Charter.
Several African countries including the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, South Africa and Uganda now recognize this right
in their constitutions (Winkler 2008). For many African nations,
the fast pace of urbanization and climate change will increase
the challenge of supplying water, making water rights a part
of the solution. The extension of a rights-based approach to
other resources, such as land (Box 9.9), can support other
environmental goals.
Strengthening existing regional institutions could encourage
replication and better utilization of these approaches. The work
of the African Commission on Human and Peoples Rights
Africas main human rights monitoring body has been limited
by state reluctance to give effect to its decisions (Wachira 2008).
The African Court on Human and Peoples Rights, established
In Sao Tom, securing access to water is a policy priority. Andrew Mohamed
Africa
247
Local, inclusive and participatory approaches
Policies that reinforce local rights to participate in environmental

management help to strengthen stewardship, contributing to the
biodiversity, land, water, oceans and seas, and climate change
goals (Tables 9.1 and 9.2). These approaches can be incorporated
across different conservation policies, such as sustainable land
management, integrated coastal zone management, and natural
solutions for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. They
broaden the livelihood base for millions of people, for example
through transboundary natural resource management, marine
managed areas and REDD+ (Box 9.11), strengthen local resilience,
including through policies on water harvesting and natural
solutions, and encourage learning across levels (Box 9.12).
Since the 1990s, there has been a rise in the number of countries
using local, inclusive and participatory approaches, and growth
in the extent of land under this type of management (Koech et al.
2009; Roe et al. 2009). For example, the percentage of forests
under community tenure in Africas ten most forested countries
increased during 20022008 from 1.2 million hectares to 6.1
million hectares (Sunderlin et al. 2008). Several countries
including Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal have
policies that recognize sacred sites (Dudley et al. 2005; Lee and
Schaaf 2003). Sites conserved by indigenous peoples and local
communities can be successful in strengthening ecosystem
management and restoring and maintaining biodiversity, and
complement state protected areas (Lee and Schaaf 2003).
A key challenge in sustaining these approaches has been the
relatively low level of earnings from environmental management
Community-based sustainable wildlife management areas maintain

buffalo herds in Zimbabwes national parks. Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere
248
Box 9.11 Butterfly farming in Arabuko Forest Reserve

Kenyas 42 000-hectare Arabuko forest is home to the
Kipepeo (Swahili for butterfly) community-based project,
which has earned more than US$80 000 annually from the
export of farmed butterfly pupae, thereby decreasing the use
of wild biodiversity.
This project demonstrates the tangible link between
conservation and sustainable livelihoods. By shifting
livelihood strategies from unsustainable use of wood
products (firewood, charcoal and timber) to the commercial
farming of forest insects, sustainability has been enhanced.
This initiative has increased the awareness of communities
and national institutions of the ecological and economic
importance of insects and their forest habitats. Potential
for replication of this kind of project is high, with butterfly
farming now being practised in three other areas in Kenya and
in the Usambara Forest of the United Republic of Tanzania.
Source: Gordon and Ayiemba 2003
relative to agriculture (Murombedzi 2010). Nevertheless,

earnings are improving. In Namibia, conservancies revenues
from wildlife-based enterprises increased from US$73 600 in
1999 to US$4.3 million in 2009, while the Namibian economy
earned more than US$32.5 million from community-based
natural resource management (NASCO 2010). Other benefits
associated with community-based approaches include inclusive
governance, infrastructural development and reduced natural
resource conflicts (Nelson 2010).
Assessing the overall effectiveness of community-based
approaches is challenging, as there has been little empirical
monitoring of the impacts on natural resources (Jones 2008).
Where there has been monitoring, as in the Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Namibia and South Africa, increases in wildlife
populations have been recorded (Mehlman et al. 2006; Child
2004; Jones 2004). In the Tayna Community Reserve in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo there has been a tenfold
increase in the elephant encounter rate, a threefold increase
in the chimpanzee encounter rate and a twofold increase in
the gorilla encounter rate, while during the same period signs
of poaching activities decreased sevenfold (Mehlman et al.
2006). The West Africa Pilot Community-Based Natural Resource
and Wildlife Management Project in Cte dIvoire and Burkina
Faso reported a reduction in agricultural encroachment within
the conservation zones (World Bank 2008). Strengthened
community security over the local forest commons has made
these landholdings less vulnerable to appropriation by others
or to conversion leading to improved community earnings,
biodiversity gains and enhanced forest condition (Sunderlin et al.
2008; Banana and Ssembaijwe 2000). These successes suggest
a strong basis for replicating this approach.
Box 9.12 Mapping landscapes in souther Cameroon

The Forest Land Oriented Resources Envisioning System
(FLORES) is a participatory mapping initiative in eight
communities in Akok near Ebolowa, the capital of Cameroons
South Region. Geographic information system (GIS) methods
were used in conjunction with focus groups and individual
discussions with women, elders and men to explain social
realities, perceptions and historical changes in land use.
Community-developed base maps in combination with
social/cultural data created a new understanding of defined
landscape units, ownership, roads and historical land use as
well as hunting and fishing rights (Robiglio et al. 2003).
This approach enables the identification of social factors
that influence land-use dynamics and the alignment of
researchers perceptions with the reality of the communities
using the land. Underlying challenges relate to the accuracy
of defining spatial boundaries, poor understanding of local
languages and high cost and time factors.
Wheat fields in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia, where improved land

management practices have contributed to a reduction in soil erosion.
William Davies/UN Photo
Nevertheless, indications are that this approach provides data

often lacking in environmental decision making and can be
replicated in multiple geographic and social/cultural regions
to support better links between environmental planning and
social values and priorities (Robiglio et al. 2003).
Significant barriers to successful implementation remain for

many local and participatory approaches. The inadequate
enforcement and implementation of local rights remains a
challenge: for example, government authorities have often been
slow in allocating community entitlement to forests designated
as community forests (see section on human rights) (Sunderlin
et al. 2008). Conflicts between local and state laws, as well as
suspicion about communities capacity to achieve sustainable
management, affect government willingness to transfer authority.
Better understanding of the multiple meanings and values
attributed to forests by local communities can establish a basis for
locally appropriate institutional arrangements (Box 9.12). Other
barriers include the limited use of markets due to insufficient
finance, poor information and technology flows, inadequate
market links, and communities inability to exploit economies of
scale (Scherr et al. 2004). Enhancing capacity and entitlements,
as envisaged by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), will
be critical to improving environmental and social outcomes.
Water harvesting
Water harvesting is used to collect run-off or floodwater for storage

in the soil or in tanks so that it can be used for the production
of crops, trees or fodder and for domestic use. Water harvesting
therefore supports the realization of the climate change goal
(Table 9.1) in strengthening adaptation by ensuring access to
freshwater and by reducing the run-off impacts of extreme rainfall
events in tropical, sub-tropical and dryland conditions; in addition
it is appropriate for both rural and urban communities. Rainwater

harvesting also contributes to achieving the freshwater and land
goals (see policy on sustainable land management) and to the
biodiversity goal through the restoration of water catchments.
The importance of this policy option is underpinned by climate
change and the understanding that by 2020 some 75250 million
Box 9.13 Rainwater harvesting in Ethiopia

The lack of water for human consumption, livestock and crop
farming has been a major constraint in the arid and semiarid areas of Ethiopia. Nearly 80 per cent of the population
lack access to a domestic water supply and an estimated 46
per cent suffer hunger. The government has been engaged
in promoting run-off and roof harvesting structures to help
address this challenge. Ethiopia has a potential rainwater
harvest equivalent to the needs of more than 520 million
people (Mati et al. 2006). Farmers who harvested water
improved their access to water for a longer period and were
able to produce vegetables during the dry seasons, so had
higher incomes than those who did not harvest rainwater. In
Minjar Shenkora district of central Ethiopia, farmers who used
harvested water for supplemental irrigation of onions and
onion seedlings obtained average net incomes of US$155
per 100 m2 plot (Akalu and Adgo 2010). In areas where
run-off was channelled into micro-catchments, greater plant
growth improved fodder production and carrying capacity of
the drylands (Abdelkdair and Schultz 2005). However, the
initial construction costs of storage structures and inadequate
build quality have undermined their wider adoption.
Africa
249
Africans will live in water-stressed areas (Boko et al. 2007), while

an increase in extreme rainfall events will adversely affect soils
and settlements, including cities. The potential of this approach
is evident from diverse contexts: Box 9.13 shows its value in
the Ethiopian context. Across the Sahel, innovative rainwater
harvesting has been applied to hundreds of thousands of
hectares, enhancing agricultural productivity and reducing human
susceptibility to climatic variability (Box 9.14) (Reij et al. 2009). In
Mali, research has quantified the impacts of rainwater harvesting
on crop yield increases and ground water recharge (Doumbia et al.
2008; Kablan et al. 2008).
Establishing effective water harvesting can be challenging, with
access to resources, labour and skills being limiting factors
(Boxes 9.13 and 9.14) (Saico and Kunene 2010). Families may
not be able to afford storage facilities that cater to household
size (Saico and Kunene 2010). The returns from water-harvesting
investments can be long term, so weak land security for
smallholders, and particularly for women, may make them
reluctant to invest in such technologies.
Nevertheless, the potential for rainwater harvesting is significant
and can be replicated in many countries (Mati et al. 2006).
Integrating water management into national adaptation planning
can support the uptake of such technology by addressing legal
and policy constraints and increasing community access to
financial resources and skills. Several countries, including
Togo, recognize water harvesting as a priority in their national
adaptation programmes. Support for local knowledge, practice

and innovation can empower communities to act and results
in the diffusion of water harvesting through farmer-to-farmer
learning. Box 9.14 demonstrates how traditional farming
knowledge, which has evolved over hundreds of years in
response to rainfall variability, has yielded multiple successes in
managing scarce water resources and improving food production.
Expanding opportunities for water harvesting can include the
rehabilitation of degraded dams, restoration of watersheds,
and conservation of existing forests that contribute to water
provisioning. These strategies can improve year-round supply
of water, soil conservation, and the expansion of livelihood
activities including in the agro-pastoral sector (Box 9.13).
Natural solutions for adaptation to and mitigation of

climate change
The restoration and maintenance of ecosystems can provide

valuable resources for climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction
and mitigation (see also section on REDD+, above), and thus help
achieve the climate change goal. By enhancing environmental
goods and services, ecosystem restoration can also contribute
to the realization of the land, oceans and seas, water, and
biodiversity goals (Tables 9.1 and 9.2).
Restoration can involve diverse actors at transboundary,
national or community level and includes the maintenance of
protected areas. By restoring or maintaining ecosystems, natural
Box 9.14 Enhancing traditional water harvesting practices in Burkina Faso

Za planting, planting in a shallow pit, in Burkina Faso
demonstrates that investment in water and soil conservation
improves crop yields. In the Yatenga Province, for example,
average sorghum yields increased from 594 kg per hectare
during the period 19841988 to 733 kg per hectare in
the period 19952001 as a result of the adoption of za
techniques. Millet yields rose from 473 kg per hectare to 688
kg per hectare for the same periods (Reij and Thiombiano
2003). These improvements have resulted in a reduction of
poverty. In Ranawa village, for example, the number of poor
families decreased by 50 per cent between 1980 and 2001
(Hien and Oudraogo 2001).
While these technologies are rooted in local practice and can
be mastered by all farmers, indications are that the betteroff and medium-income farmers use this technology more
than poor farmers simply because they have the resources
to pay for labour when needed (Kabor and Reij 2004). The
main disadvantage of the za techniques is that they require
considerable physical effort and good health, especially
where digging is required over a large area.
Source: Barry et al. 2008
250
Za agriculture helps capture water. Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere
solutions provide opportunities for adaptation and mitigation.

Mangrove restoration, for example, can enhance coping capacity
by stabilizing coastlines (Duke et al. 2007; Mcleod and Salm
2006). Mangrove restoration also supports adaptation through
the provisioning of environmental goods such as food, fuel
and wood. For example, Nigerias mangrove forests provide
breeding grounds for more than 60 per cent of the fish caught
between the Gulf of Guinea and Angola (Carrere 2009). In Sudan,
the restoration of rangelands achieved through rotational
grazing and a shift in livestock composition helped improve
livestock pasture and food security (Buffle and Elasha 2011). An
unexpected consequence of this effort was that pastoral nomads
were attracted to the area, with conflict being avoided by using
traditional local institutions and values to negotiate access.
Protected areas, including in Niger, have been found to support
the in situ conservation of wild crop relatives, which are often
more drought resistant than domesticated crops and can be used
to strengthen agriculture and food security (Dudley et al. 2010).
Ecosystem restoration frequently requires a coherent but
cross-cutting multisectoral approach as drivers and pressures
exist at multiple levels. Large-scale or global drivers include oil
exploration, agricultural expansion and pollution, infrastructure
and transport development, population growth and settlements,
and coastal development (Adger et al. 2005). At the same
time, local livelihoods can place pressure on resources where
governance and management are weak, for example through
unsustainable fuelwood harvesting in mangroves (Ajonina et
al.2005; Ajonina and Usongo 2001). Establishing integrated
approaches that address drivers at multiple levels is often
challenging, especially where coordination and collaboration
between policy development agencies and policy implementing
agencies are weak. Poor data collection, monitoring and
information further constrain adaptive management. Inadequate
legislation that is sector-based, conflicting, deficient and
unenforceable provides a weak basis for planning and
management (Madzwamuse 2010; Gordon et al. 2009).
In addition, enhancing the conservation of ecosystems and

their capacity to regenerate requires a better understanding of
the links between different ecosystem components (Abdulla
et al. 2011; Davis et al. 2011) as well as of social-ecological
resilience (Johnson and Welch 2010; Adger et al. 2005). Investing
in and generating ecological knowledge and translating it
into information that can be used in governance and policy
development is essential for management success (Adger et al.
2005), and requires a better interface between science, policy
makers and communities. Regional cooperation, communitydriven strategies and public-private partnerships (Box 9.15)
can support learning, improve sustainability and encourage
ecosystem approaches. The recently adopted Mangrove Charter
for West Africa, which is complemented by country-specific action
plans, is an example of this.
Given that adaptation is about local capacity, it is important
that strategies and projects enjoy shared understanding
between policy makers, technical agencies and communities
(Box 9.16) (Patt and Schroeter 2005). Unless this is achieved,
there is a risk that adaptation strategies will run counter to local
livelihoods, values and cultures, and that uptake will be low,
as in the government-initiated resettlement scheme following
Cyclone Eline in 2000 in Mozambique (Patt and Schroeter
2005). The loss of easy access to resources and social support
were key obstacles to support for resettlement. A second major
challenge was the conflicting perception of climate risk severity
held by the government and the communities. These results
highlight the need for active dialogue across stakeholder groups
as a necessary condition for formulating and successfully
implementing policies (Patt and Schroeter 2005). Ongoing
dialogue creates the basis for reassessing strategies and
responding to change (Box 9.16)
Stakeholder pollution management
Pollution management is important for restoring ecosystems and

realizing human health goals. It contributes to achieving the social
Box 9.15 Mangrove restoration in Mauritius

In 2008, in response to declining mangrove forests in
Mauritius, the non-governmental organization Association
pour le Dveloppement Durable, with support from the
European Union and the Ministry of Finance, planted about 10
000 mangrove seedlings at Le Morne, a small fishing village
in the south. The local community was actively involved.
Cooperation included training on planting techniques by the
Albion Fisheries Research Centre of the Ministry of Fisheries
and Rodrigues. In 2011, multiple levels of cooperation and
funding from a commercial bank under a corporate social
responsibility scheme led to an additional 40 000 seedlings
being planted. An island-wide survey has been undertaken to
identify potential areas for replication.
Source: ADD 2011
Mangrove planting at Le Morne. Subash Chacowry/ADD
Africa
251
Box 9.16 Social learning and knowledge in

community-based adaptation strategies
The relative success of a community-based mangrove
management project in Cameroon demonstrates the value
of participation and learning for successful adaptation
(Ajonina et al. 2009).
Communities of the Campo Beach raised over 4 000 mangrove
seedlings in community-run nurseries and planted them as a
green shield to protect Campo Beach from coastal erosion and
wind. This project was a response to collapsing concrete walls
along the beach. Dialogue, learning and inclusion in project
development led to active community involvement in different
aspects of the project, including seedling development, the
demarcation of mangrove wood-gathering zones, locally based
enforcement and continuous involvement in monitoring and
evaluation. Locally appropriate technologies, including energyefficient fish-smoking houses, have been adopted.
Smallholder farmers of Eastern Africa play an important part in the

global agenda for the conservation and sustainable use of natural
resources and the equitable sharing of related benefits. Guenter Guni/iStock
Source: Ajonina et al. 2009
and environmental aspects of the selected goals for biodiversity,

freshwater, oceans and seas, and climate (Tables 9.1 and 9.2).
Africa has relied primarily on regulatory approaches to achieve
pollution targets. These approaches influence environmental
outcomes by regulating processes or products, limiting the
discharge of specified pollutants, and restricting certain
polluting activities to specific times or areas (Bernstein 1997).
However, regulatory instruments are often inefficient in achieving
pollution control objectives, especially where resources for

monitoring pollution and compliance are lacking. The level of
expenditure required for ensuring compliance with increasingly
stringent environmental laws is an unmanageable cost for many
governments. In contrast, stakeholder-driven management
approaches have the potential to make pollution control
economically advantageous to commercial organizations. These
approaches can involve varying degrees of incentives, information
and administrative capacity for effective implementation and
enforcement. The principal types of economic instruments used
for controlling pollution include pricing, pollution charging and
marketable permits (Bernstein 1997).
Box 9.17 Managing acid mine drainage in the Olifants catchment

The upper Olifants catchment lies in the Gauteng and
Mpumalanga provinces of South Africa, where coal mining,
mineral processing and agriculture are key economic activities
(Hob et al. 2008). The Olifants waters are polluted by acid
mine drainage, particularly from coal mining.
The controlled discharge scheme, introduced in the upper
Olifants catchment in 1997 with the support of industrial
stakeholders, takes advantage of the natural assimilative
capacity of the river system during high flow conditions to
control the discharge of acid mine drainage (Hob et al. 2008).
The upper catchment is divided into management units, each
with a distinct waste load allocation based on the assimilative
capacity of the unit. Participating industries are allowed to
discharge poor-quality water to the host management unit in
proportion to the assimilative capacity of the unit and their
share in the scheme (Limpitlaw et al. 2005).
252
The scheme has succeeded in reducing sulphate concentrations

at the Witbank Dam (World Coal Institute 2002), which is expected
to contribute to the ecological integrity of the river in the long run.
Significantly, discharge during low-flow periods is reduced. Costs
are borne by the polluter, ensuring that general tax can be put
to other uses. Industries in the area including mines and power
stations made significant capital and operational investments
towards this project, with one company investing over R100
million (US$13 million) in December 2007 for drainage, storage
and treatment systems to improve the quality and quantity of its
discharges (World Coal Institute 2002). The flood risk has been
reduced and a healthier community is envisaged.
Unfortunately, water quality problems in the Olifants catchment
persist. Success for similar initiatives depends on strong
institutional capacity, economic stability, government recognition of
innovative ideas and the committed involvement of stakeholders.
Box 9.17 on pollution control in the Olifants illustrates how

stakeholder involvement can be successfully implemented
and lead to a shift in established assumptions about where
responsibility for pollution management lies.
CONCLUSION: BUILDING ON SUCCESS
This environmental policy appraisal suggests that opportunities

for building on existing success can be effectively harnessed to
ensure better implementation and positive outcomes for people
and the environment.
Replicating and up-scaling effective approaches is important,
but policies should not be blindly replicated, and should be
modified to achieve good fit with local, national and regional
conditions. As amply demonstrated in the policy options detailed
above, it is important to maximize opportunities by focusing on
options that are mutually reinforcing and cross-cutting (Table
9.2). Finding and developing synergies is cost effective when
financial and human resources are limited. Ensuring that policies
are not in conflict with each other and that they do not lead to an
externalization of adverse impacts is important.
As the policy appraisal shows, effective policy implementation
requires reducing or removing barriers and strengthening
enabling conditions. Insufficient monitoring, special-interest
decision making, weak governance and rights, and a lack of
adequate capacity have undermined policy success.
Policies that have in-built flexibility are needed to address
environmental change. Investing in monitoring and evaluation,
as well as social learning, supports revision and modification
of policy responses, as illustrated in many of the policy options
discussed here, including, for example, natural solutions for
adaptation and mitigation.
able to demonstrate results, systems for monitoring progress

need to be established. Developing performance indicators
rather than effort-based indicators, such as the number of
meetings held, improves clarity about how and to what extent the
purpose of the policy is being achieved (Najam and Halle 2010).
Strong and effective national and sub-regional reporting systems
help hold implementing agencies to account and provide an
opportunity to document successes, which in turn set the basis
for up-scaling and replication.
Cooperation has been shown to be effective for achieving
sustainable management, including policy options for
transboundary coastal and land-based resource management,
and where there are multiple stakeholders. This has improved
equity, enhanced skills sharing and reduced conflict. In some
cases, external support and collaboration with donors have
helped establish effective platforms for engagement, learning
and sharing knowledge and skills, including in TerrAfrica and
under the Nairobi Convention. Partnerships with the private
sector and environmental managers or custodians have been
shown to be effective in securing benefits in many of the
policy options, including payment for ecosystem services, and
in mangrove restoration. Several of the options presented,
including sustainable land management, show that a high degree
of participation at local and government levels helps to ensure
relevance, with good outcomes for strengthening sustainability.
Decentralization and devolution policies, including in
community-based resource management, have achieved positive
outcomes for communities and for the environment.
Strengthening the governance and institutional regime for more
equitable benefit sharing is critical, given that ecological and
social resilience are tightly inter-twined, as South Africas basic
water policy shows. Weak tenure and entitlements stand out as key
Decision making that is strategic and takes account of how

changes in environmental use and governance affect the
resilience of the social-ecological system has been shown to
be effective in securing economic, social and environmental
benefits. Integrating human and ecological understanding and
priorities in environmental management can help ensure that
choices do not destroy or undermine the environmental resources
that underpin future options. Such approaches including
ecosystem-based management prioritize the interface between
people and nature and do not favour just one ecosystem
component, industry sector, community or socio-economic
group (Davis et al. 2011). Ecosystem-based management is one
way to maintain the Earth Systems ability to adapt to change,
as compared to other approaches that focus on fixed targets
and state systems, or on hard-engineering solutions that often
interfere with natural processes (Abdulla et al. 2011).
Strong accountability helps secure government and privatesector commitment to implementation and to achieve agreed
outcomes (Najam and Halle 2010) (see also the sections on
local, inclusive and participatory approaches, human rights, and
stakeholder pollution management). For countries to be better
The central Namib Desert, Namibia. Lucyna Koch/iStock
Africa
253
Figure 9.3 Selected strategies from the policy options for strengthening key components of capacity
Sharing of facilities to address skill

dierences between countries
Skills to use new technology
Monitoring and evaluation skills
to improve performance
and assessment
Institutional support
Skills
development
Governance rights including

participation and access to
information
Land tenure rights and
natural resource entitlements
Access to justice through
legal standing and consent procedures
Rights and
entitlements
barriers to achieving equitable benefits for payment for ecosystem

services including REDD+, community-based management and
other policy options. While these are national problems, the
scale and commonality of the challenges suggest that developing
and adopting regional or global protocols for cooperation and
sharing could provide the basis for more effective engagement and
management of benefits and losses. Strengthening and integrating
human rights perspectives in environmental management
Knowledge
sharing and
learning
Technology
and other
inputs
Learning across multiple levels,

including farmer-to-farmer,
country-to-country, and
cross-sectoral
Science-policy-local exchange
Inclusion of dierent knowledge,
including indigenous knowledge
Stakeholder platforms
Targeted investments
Sharing and collaboration
Improved access to management
tools and technologies
frameworks at national and regional levels supports more

inclusive, long-term approaches by protecting livelihood rights,
ensuring inclusion and reducing conflict. Regional human rights
bodies can play an important role in solidifying the piecemeal
environmental benefits that human rights recognition has already
brought, especially where the mandate of regional courts and the
rights of citizens to bring actions are strengthened, as shown in
the human rights policy option.
Environmental policy is often out of step with realities on the
ground, with governments acting alone often unable to effect
the necessary change. Innovative institutional arrangements for
pooling financial resources, knowledge and capacity, however, can
contribute to achieving environmental goals. Improving capacity
and equity among diverse communities, including governments, is
essential to support collaboration and to secure rights. The policy
options demonstrate the potential of various strategies to enhance
capacity (Figure 9.3). At regional and sub-regional levels, for
example, mechanisms for sharing information and knowledge, as
in the management of marine pollution, could be better utilized.
Cloud forests of Nyungwe Forest National Park, in southwestern

Rwanda, hold potential for REDD+. Guenter Guni/iStock
254
Addressing the barriers to sustainability and achieving the

agreed environmental goals addressed in this chapter can
create a springboard to improve environmental performance
and to move from promising policies to successful policies.
Strengthening environmental management can help protect
the ecosystem goods and services on which development and
human well-being opportunities are based and provide a basis
for dealing with key challenges including food security, poverty,
urbanization and climate change impacts.
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Xin Zhui/iStock
10
Coordinating lead authors: Peter King and Lailai Li

Lead authors: Iskandar Abdullaev, Raquibul Amin, Yumiko Asayama,
Magnus Bengtsson, Robert Dobias, Mark Elder, Rodrigo Fuentes, Anirban Ganguly,
Guibin Jiang, Mikiko Kainuma, Yatsuka Kataoka, Simon Hoiberg Olsen (GEO Fellow)
and Diana Suhardiman
Contributing authors: Prodipto Ghosh, Yi Huang, Robert Kipp, Marie Leroy, Keeping Ma,
Vishal Narain, Shavkat Rakhmatullaev, Nilapha Ratanavong (GEO Fellow), Jianbo Shi,
Poh Poh Wong and Shiqiu Zhang
Principal scientific reviewer: Patrick Nunn
Chapter coordinators: Anna Stabrawa and Jinhua Zhang
Main Messages
260
Achievement of global environmental goals

substantially depends on coordinated policies and
action in the Asia and Pacific region, often identified
as the global engine of economic growth. The
global drivers identified in Chapter 1 in particular
unsustainable economic growth, population
increase, mass consumption and urbanization
pose clear challenges to the regions sustainable
development. It is therefore important that policy
responses are designed to enable the best possible
adaptation to pressures and impacts deriving from
these drivers.
Water endowments range from the highly arid

temperate zones and water-stressed small island
states to Himalayan snowfields and abundant
tropics, often alternating between drought and
flood. Balancing water supply and demand through
coordination between users, and improved water
quality management, are essential to achieve global
freshwater goals. Successful implementation of
policies requires establishing a planning framework
for adaptive and integrated management of water
resources, under which appropriate pricing and
multi-stakeholder participation are essential.
Asia and the Pacific is the fastest growing region in

the world with the most rapidly rising emissions of
greenhouse gases, and efforts to combat climate
change must accelerate across the region if global
efforts are to succeed. Under a business-as-usual
scenario, the region will contribute approximately
45 per cent of global energy-related carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions by 2030. However, intra-regional
diversity is great, with China the worlds largest
emitter, while most Pacific island nations are
among the smallest. People from this region have
the most to lose from global inaction as many of
the countries most at risk from climate change
are here. Mainstreaming adaptation concerns
into development policies and plans, integrating
climate change adaptation and disaster risk
reduction, climate proofing infrastructure, and
promoting ecosystem-based adaptation are key
actions. Significant steps have been taken on both
mitigation and adaptation, but much more needs
to be done and urgently to achieve widespread
low-carbon and climate-resilient societies.
The threat of species extinction is only partly

addressed by global goals targeting a significantly
reduced rate of biodiversity loss. Despite progress
in expanding protected areas, conserving some
species, addressing some direct drivers of
biodiversity loss, and implementing communitybased management and innovative financing, the
scale of efforts remains insufficient. In light of
the recent Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic
Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing of
Benefits Arising from their Utilization, access and
benefit-sharing regimes also need to be developed.
As the Asia and Pacific region becomes wealthier

it is facing a rapid increase in consumption
and its principal side effect waste. Effective
implementation of the 3Rs approach reduce, reuse,
recycle remains a key goal, although a mix of
policies may be necessary to achieve the most costefficient outcomes. Changing consumption patterns
and behaviour, which reduces waste from the outset,
lies at the core of an effective policy mix.
Appropriate controls on chemical production and

use, and the provision of safe alternatives as
well as appropriate treatment facilities, are key
policy concerns. As their use is increasing while
their impacts remain poorly monitored and little
understood, management of registration, monitoring,
export and import as well as information sharing
should be strengthened. Proactive measures on
emerging contaminants are also necessary.
Governance improvements are critical to enhanced
accountability as a means of achieving sustainable
development. Integrating sustainability concerns
across all policy areas, increased multi-stakeholder
participation and capacity improvement can all
enhance governance. Additionally, allocating authority
to appropriate levels of government, improved
monitoring and data collection, access to information
and legal redress, as well as greening fiscal policy,
have the potential to alter the drivers of environmental
change and unsustainable development.
Recommendation of policies to accelerate
achievement of the selected global goals remains
difficult. There have been some successes in the
region but gaps remain. Policy responses are
beginning to shift from a focus on environmental
impacts to addressing the key drivers through
market- and information-based approaches. As
many of the policy successes are due to the context
in which they are implemented, transferring policies
from one country to another, while often practised,
requires careful analysis. Creating the necessary
enabling environment may be as important as
selecting the right mix of policies.
261
INTRODUCTION
The global drivers identified in Chapter 1 in particular

unsustainable economic growth, population increase, mass
consumption and urbanization pose clear challenges to
sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific. It is therefore
important that policy responses are designed to enable the best
possible adaptation to the pressures and impacts deriving from
these drivers.
The objectives of this chapter are to:
document the chosen priority themes and goals;
identify the wide range of policies that have been applied in
the region to address these goals;
screen these options according to their effectiveness and
compile a shortlist of the most promising policies for further
analysis;
document successful cases where these policies have been
implemented and appear to have made a contribution to
achieving the global goals;
analyse the social, environmental, economic and political
impacts of these priority policies;
examine the possibilities and prospects for replication across
national borders; and
conclude which of these policies and/or which combination
of these policies should be implemented to accelerate
achievement of the global goals.
The chapter concludes with a synthesis of the benefits and
limitations of the combined policy packages for each thematic
area, an analysis of the enabling environment that needs to be
created to allow the selected policies to flourish, and a set of
conclusions directed towards the regions decision makers.
POLICY APPRAISAL
While Part 1 of GEO-5 describes the state and trends ofa

multitude of environmental issues and challenges, the
regional consultation selected five priority themes for their
overarching characteristics. The five priority themes and related
global goals for the Asia and Pacific region were chosen at
the first regional consultation, held in Bangkok, Thailand in
September 2010. Generally, the broadest goal was selected to
allow all issues covered by other goals to be considered. This
means that quantitative targets were not chosen, thus making
any quantitative assessment of policy choices more difficult.
The themes are relevant for all countries in the region,
but specific countries may need to prioritize additional
|environmental challenges. Policy responses regarding the
selected themes provide insights on how country-specific
challenges can be addressed.
Priority themes
Climate change
The priority concern for most countries in the region is how to
build resilience, especially in the most vulnerable communities, to
climate change impacts already set in motion by past greenhouse
gas emissions. Parts of low-lying Pacific island countries may
disappear entirely due to sea level rise (Nicholls et al. 2011; Nunn
262
2009; Barnett and Adger 2003), extreme weather events are likely
to become more frequent, and marine habitats such as coral reefs
and mangroves are threatened by increased temperature and
ocean acidification.
Under a business-as-usual scenario, the region will contribute
approximately 45 per cent of global energy-related carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2030 (IEA 2010) and, by one
estimate, more than 60 per cent of total global CO2 emissions
by 2100 (Masui et al. 2011). However, intra-regional diversity
is great China is the worlds largest CO2 emitter while most
Pacific island nations are among the smallest. Transport-related
emissions are expected to increase by 57 per cent worldwide
between 2005 and 2030, with China and India accounting
for more than half of that increase (Leather et al. 2009).
Nonetheless, there are encouraging signs on mitigation. At least
ten countries in the region have voluntarily pledged greenhouse
gas emission reductions, including Indonesias promise of a
26 per cent CO2 reduction compared to business-as-usual by
2020 (DNPI 2010), and Chinas of a 4045 per cent reduction
Box 10.1 Selected climate change goal: United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Article 3 Paragraphs 13
The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of
present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of
equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated
responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the
developed country Parties should take the lead in combating
climate change and the adverse effects thereof.
The specific needs and special circumstances of developing
country Parties, especially those that are particularly
vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, and of
those Parties, especially developing country Parties, that
would have to bear a disproportionate or abnormal burden
under the Convention, should be given full consideration.
The Parties should take precautionary measures to
anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change
and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats
of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing such
measures, taking into account that policies and measures
to deal with climate change should be cost-effective so as to
ensure global benefits at the lowest possible cost. To achieve
this, such policies and measures should take into account
different socio-economic contexts, be comprehensive, cover
all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse
gases and adaptation, and comprise all economic sectors.
Efforts to address climate change may be carried out
cooperatively by interested Parties.
Source: UNFCCC 1992
The Mekong River Delta is one of the most important rice granaries in Viet Nam, but being a low-lying coastal region, it is particularly susceptible to
floods. Bartosz Hadyniak/iStock
in CO2 per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to

the 2005 level by 2020 (Lommen 2011). With one of the worlds
greatest potentials for mitigating CO2 emissions being reduced
deforestation alongside improved land-use management (ADB
2009a), Asia and the Pacific can make significant contributions
to global efforts at climate change mitigation. Accessing climate
funds to enable these contributions, however, is a major concern
for developing countries in the region.
Although UNFCCC Article 3 was selected by the regional
consultation, three other goals (UNFCCC Article 2, the Bali Action
Plan and the Delhi Declaration) selected by the GEO High-Level
Intergovernmental Advisory Panel were also considered because
adaptation, mitigation, capacity building and financing need to
be considered as an integrated package of policy measures.
Biodiversity
The imminent threat of mass extinction of species, brought
about by continuing habitat fragmentation, degradation and
loss, overexploitation of resources, invasive alien species,
illegal wildlife trade, pollution and climate change are priority
Box 10.2 Selected biodiversity goal: Convention on

Biological Diversity Article 1
The objectives of this Convention, to be pursued in accordance
with its relevant provisions, are the conservation of biological
diversity, the sustainable use of its components and the
fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the
utilization of genetic resources, including by appropriate
access to genetic resources and by appropriate transfer of
relevant technologies, taking into account all rights over those
resources and to technologies, and by appropriate funding.
Source: CBD 1992
environmental concerns in the Asia and Pacific region (Box 10.2).

The Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 concluded that the 2010 goal
of reversing biodiversity loss had not been achieved (CBD 2010).
The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity for 20112020 embodying the
Aichi Biodiversity Targets now provides the general framework for
biodiversity conservation.
Links with the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI)
Paragraph 44 and its provisions (WSSD 2002) also need
to be established.
Freshwater
As outlined in Part 1, the key environmental priorities in the
water sector being faced by the region are the quantity and
quality of water resources (Box 10.3), climate change, access to
safe drinking water and transboundary issues. All of these key
challenges are reflected in the selected goal.
The regional consultation also noted that JPOI Paragraphs 25d
and 7a should be included in the assessment, as well as taking
an innovative approach to links with other themes.
Box 10.3 Selected freshwater goal: Johannesburg

Plan of Implementation Paragraph 26c
Improve the efficient use of water resources and promote
their allocation among competing uses in a way that
gives priority to the satisfaction of basic human needs
and balances the requirement of preserving or restoring
ecosystems and their functions, in particular in fragile
environments, with human domestic, industrial and
agriculture needs, including safeguarding the quality of
drinking water.
Source: WSSD 2002
263
Box 10.5 Selected governance goal: Johannesburg

Declaration on Sustainable Development Paragraph 5
Accordingly, we assume a collective responsibility to
advance and strengthen the interdependent and mutually
reinforcing pillars of sustainable development economic
development, social development and environmental
protection at the local, national, regional and global levels.
Source: WSSD 2002
A motorcycle connected to a rickshaw used for the transport of paper

which then sold to be recycled in Cambodia. Laurent/ iStock
Chemicals and waste

The chemicals and waste theme encompasses a range of
interrelated issues, including the production and use of
chemicals, hazardous waste, electronic waste, transboundary
movement, product reuse, materials recycling and municipal waste
management. During the regional consultations, JPOI Paragraph 23
was selected as the overarching goal for the theme, although
JPOI Paragraph 22 was considered equally relevant (Box 10.4).
Box 10.4 Selected goal for chemicals and waste:

Johannesburg Plan of Implementation Paragraphs
22 and 23
Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling
and use of environmentally friendly alternative materials,
with the participation of government authorities and all
stakeholders, in order to minimize adverse effects on the
environment and improve resource efficiency, with financial,
technical and other assistance for developing countries.
Renew the commitment, as advanced in Agenda 21, to
sound management of chemicals throughout their life cycle
and of hazardous wastes for sustainable development
as well as for the protection of human health and the
environment, inter alia, aiming to achieve, by 2020, that
chemicals are used and produced in ways that lead to
the minimization of significant adverse effects on human
health and the environment, using transparent sciencebased risk assessment procedures and science-based
risk management procedures, taking into account the
precautionary approach, as set out in principle 15 of the Rio
Declaration on Environment and Development, and support
developing countries in strengthening their capacity for the
sound management of chemicals and hazardous wastes by
providing technical and financial assistance.
Source: WSSD 2002
264
The selected global goals are built around the concept of lifecycle thinking. Hence the starting point for effective policies is
to use demand management and resource efficiency to minimize
waste generation and the use of hazardous chemicals. The
regions political recognition of the need to prioritize waste
minimization and resource efficiency is not matched by policy
implementation (APO 2007). Only weak efforts have been made
to address the escalating use of resources and hazardous
substances that eventually end up as waste and pollutants (UNEP
2011; Shekdar 2009).
Environmental governance
Environmental governance functions through institutions,
laws, norms and processes for collective decision making
(Young 1992), and the region has a wide diversity of systems
and mechanisms. However, many remain centralized, expertdriven, compartmentalized, and inflexible (ESCAP/ADB/UNEP
2012). A persistent problem is that, many environmental laws,
regulations, action plans and programmes [have not been]
effectively implemented, making greater progress necessary
to achieve the selected global goal of good governance at local,
national, regional and global levels (JPOI Paragraph 5).
Policy screening
As indicated in the GEO-5 Introduction, the first step in the policy

analysis framework was to formulate a long list of policy options
with the potential to accelerate achievement of the selected
global goals, and then identify a few priority policies or policy
clusters for further analysis.
In some cases, the long list of policy options was clustered into
groups of policies with a common intent prior to screening, for
ease of assessment and acknowledging that most policies are
implemented as part of a complementary package rather than
alone. While all the policies considered may have important
contributions to make in certain circumstances, the priority
policies in Table 10.1 are believed to be able to accelerate
achievement of the selected global goals if implemented
consistently across all countries in the region, bearing in mind
specific national circumstances. Here, priority means that the
policy or cluster of policies was selected for more detailed
policy analysis rather than implying high priority for a specific
country or sub-region.
Policy analysis
The priority policies in Table 10.1 were subjected to further

analysis of their environmental, social and economic benefits
and limitations, drawing from the literature and experience
of the experts, as well as from 18 case studies of policy
implementation, a limited number of which are summarized
here. The analysis of limitations is included because even
successful policies may have side effects or unintended
consequences that need to be understood and addressed
during implementation and that may impede replication
elsewhere. To illustrate how policy packages may be introduced
in coordinated steps, a series of graphic representations
(Figures 10.110.5) show:
possible time frames: short term, 15 years; medium term,
615 years; long term, 16 years or more; and
direct policy measures that are intended to target the
immediate cause of the problem, ranging to indirect policy
measures that help to achieve the selected goals by tackling
related issues.
Climate change
The key element of the selected global goal for climate change
(Box 10.1) is to take a precautionary approach to anticipate,
prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and to mitigate
its adverse effects (Figure 10.1).
The clean energy policy cluster includes a renewable energy
mandate and potentially carbon capture and storage, which,
if and when the technology is proven, could contain the
greenhouse gas emissions from the largest source globally 12
billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2020 (McKinsey and Company
2009). This cluster also has significant co-benefits such as
improved air quality and health improvements, avoidance of
environmental damage from mining and exploration for fossil
fuels, improved energy security and new green job opportunities
(Hughes 2011; Renner 2008), and may offer households and
businesses opportunities to generate their own energy and
supply the surplus to the grid (Palit and Chaurey 2011; USEPA
2010). Potential limitations include non-climate-related negative
Table 10.1 Policies selected for analysis

Climate change

Clean energy: promote clean energy renewable energy, energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage
Energy efficiency: reduce energy demand energy efficiency, transport systems
Technology: promote technology transfer and diffusion
Financial policies: enable economic instruments and innovative financing carbon tax, emissions trading, eliminating energy subsidies, feed-in tariffs, REDD+ (the
UN programme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries)
Adaptation: integrate climate change adaptation into development policies and strategies, and with disaster management
Land management for carbon sequestration: REDD+, low-tillage agriculture
Biodiversity
Conservation of biological diversity: increase habitat management including improved effectiveness of protected area management and minimize destructive
land-use change, especially deforestation
Targeted species conservation: address species conservation and invasive alien species management
Illegal wildlife trade: enhance illegal wildlife trade control at national level and through regional cooperation
Community management: encourage community-based management of wetlands, forests and coastal areas, including coral reefs and mangroves
Innovative financing mechanisms: apply innovative financing mechanisms, such as payment for ecosystem services and REDD+, for biodiversity management
Access and benefit sharing: improve access and benefit sharing regimes following the Nagoya Protocol
Freshwater
Framework: apply adaptive and integrated water resources management planning
Water allocation and cooperation: promote community-based management for better allocation of water resources
Basic human needs: encourage rainwater harvesting/storm water management and support the construction and/or renovation of farm dams for increased and
improved water storage
Water-use efficiency: promote industrial and domestic wastewater treatment; utilize economic instruments and approaches to enhance efficient use of water
Water environment: strengthen water quality legislation and implementation to secure water quality; incorporate the ecosystem approach/environmental flow
concept into water resources management
Chemicals and waste
Framework: adopt policy frameworks promoting waste avoidance and reduction of the production and use of hazardous chemicals
Collection systems and treatment facilities: establish systems and infrastructure for product reuse and materials recycling, and stimulate markets for recycled
materials including both industrial by-products and post-consumer waste; set up safe disposal facilities for hazardous wastes and chemicals that cannot be
recycled, either nationally or sub-regionally, paying special attention to the needs and circumstances of developing countries and economies in transition
International collaboration: strengthen international collaboration, including technology transfer and financial support as well as information sharing and policy
transfer; reinforce control of inappropriate export and import of hazardous chemicals and waste
Policy integration and mainstreaming: ensure policy integration and coherence and eliminate policy conflicts; build capacity
Strengthening incentive structures: greening fiscal policies matched by innovative financing mechanisms
Accountability and stakeholder participation: decentralization and devolution of environmental management to the lowest practical level; multi-stakeholder input
on all major planning decisions
Compliance and enforcement: establish environmental judiciary; combat corruption and inequitable power relationships; base environmental standards on the
best available technology
265
Figure 10.1 Selected climate change policies

Short term
Medium term
Long term
Direct
Elimination of energy subsidies
Promotion of renewable energy, expansion of a low-carbon smart grid
Carbon capture and storage
Visualization of CO2 emissions; improvement of energy eciency devices
Improvement of building architecture; low-carbon transport system
Intellectual property right waivers/buy-out and domestic research for technology transfer and diusion
Clean Development Mechanism; Emission Trading; Joint Implementation
Carbon tax; feed-in tari
Adaptation Fund; REDD+
Ecosystem-based adaptation; integration of climate change adaptation into development policies and strategies and with disaster management
Indirect
Reduction of emissions from land-use change

Land management for carbon sequestration
Policy cluster
Clean energy policy
Finance
Land management for carbon sequestration
Energy eciency
Adaptation
Technology transfer and diusion
environmental impacts such as mining for rare earth metals;

the competition between biofuels and food production and
impacts on biodiversity; higher costs to end users; unproven
technologies such as carbon capture and storage; and the
impacts on businesses and employees in traditional fossil fuel
energy production.
The energy efficiency policy cluster is aimed at reducing energy
demand through targeted efficiency improvements in buildings,
transport and agriculture, globally representing 14 billion tonnes
of CO2 per year by 2030 (McKinsey and Company 2009). The
principal benefits are reduced operating and travel costs, health
benefits from cleaner air, reduced traffic congestion following
the growth of mass transit systems, and lower environmental
impacts from low-tillage and other energy-saving agricultural
practices. Limitations include the high initial costs of retrofitting
buildings and introducing or expanding mass transit systems,
high resettlement costs when people are displaced by the
building of above-ground mass transit systems, and the potential
lack of uptake of mass transit by car-owning urban households.
Furthermore, energy efficiency improvements such as hybrid
cars, while desirable, may be only temporary or partial due to
widespread rebound effects whereby part of the efficiency gain
is offset by increased energy use (UNEP 2011; Timilsina and
Shrestha 2009). Inadequate public awareness and incomplete
markets for energy efficiency are also barriers to greater market
penetration (IEA 2007).
266
The technology policy cluster includes policies that promote

technology transfer and diffusion such as technology transfer
agreements, intellectual property rights waivers or buy-outs,
and domestic research, all of which will also contribute to
achieving a precautionary approach to combating climate change.
This policy cluster will allow developing countries to leapfrog
development stages and avoid the carbon-intensive trajectory
of developed countries. It will improve human well-being, assist
national development budgets by avoiding a lock-in to fossil-fuelintensive approaches, and build national capacity for research
and development. As a political strategy, such an approach has
few limitations, although some intellectual property holders may
be resistant to waivers to maintain their global competitiveness,
and may be disadvantaged by being pressured to release their
rights at less than market value. Indeed, some research claims
that stronger intellectual property rights increase international
technology transfer (Branstetter et al. 2006). Technology transfer
from developed to developing countries may not be effective if the
latter have inadequate domestic capacity to apply the technology
in terms of infrastructure, human and financial capital, and the
appropriate institutional environment (Tan and Zhang 2010).
The financial policies cluster includes greenhouse gas emissions
trading, the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development Mechanism,
the Joint Implementation mechanism and the Adaptation
Fund, amended tariffs and taxes such as feed-in tariffs, a
carbon tax and an aviation tax, or elimination of subsidies that
promote fossil fuel use (Box 10.6) and of financial incentives

that encourage inappropriate land use and forest loss. A
carbon tax may allow governments to reduce other taxes or
generate additional revenue streams to invest in sustainable
development. Earmarked financing provides incentives for scaled
up investment in low-carbon technologies by the private sector.
Penalizing fossil-fuel-based industries through taxes and tariffs
levels the playing field for emerging technologies. Potential
limitations include intermediaries benefiting from carbon market
initiatives rather than achieving low-carbon objectives. Global
schemes such as the Clean Development Mechanism tend to be
bureaucratic and cumbersome, and to benefit too few countries
(de Lopez et al. 2009). Social impacts, particularly for the poor,
may be high due to more costly goods and services unless
these are offset by lifeline support measures or tax rebates.
The distributional impacts of all financial measures need to be
carefully analysed prior to adoption.
The adaptation policy cluster anticipates the likely impacts
already embedded in the climate system due to historical levels
of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that communities can
adapt to inevitable changes (Box 10.7). Policies that facilitate
adaptation include mandatory infrastructure design for future
climates, or climate proofing; ecosystem-based adaptation in
planning and zoning schemes; building climate resilience in
agriculture, forestry and fisheries; and integrating climate change
adaptation and disaster risk reduction (Srivastava 2011; Mimura
et al. 2007). These policies have a range of co-benefits such as
Several countries in the region are developing ecosystem-based

adaptation strategies for enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience
to climate change and variability, including extreme events.
GYINSEA/ iStock
biodiversity conservation, improved recreational opportunities

and managed natural resource harvesting (ADB 2010). The
main benefits are a lower incidence of death or injury from
extreme storm events and droughts; reduced future economic
and social costs; additional economic opportunities for the
Box 10.6 Removing fossil fuel subsidies in Asia and the Pacific
Several countries have begun to remove fossil fuel
subsidies. China, for example, has attempted to bring
domestic energy prices closer to global market levels as
it moves from being largely self-sufficient in energy to
being a major importer. In 2007, the country removed price
controls for coal, and prices are now negotiated between
coal producers and power companies. Crude oil prices and
refined oil products now match international levels. In 2010,
onshore natural gas benchmark prices rose by 25 per cent
following increased gas transmission fees. Preferential
tariffs for energy-intensive industries were eliminated and
a three-tiered electricity pricing mechanism was introduced
for residential use.
In 2010, India announced that petrol pricing would be market
driven. Immediate price increases were announced for
diesel, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene. Natural
gas pricing reform in 2010 allowed state-run producers to
sell natural gas from new fields at market prices instead
of regulated rates, and the price of natural gas more than
doubled. In the coal industry, price reforms are expected to
bring domestic prices in line with imports, allowing for quality
differences, which will increase electricity prices.
Indonesia has long subsidized energy prices as a poverty

support policy, with 19 per cent of the state budget devoted
to energy subsidies. Subsidies are becoming increasingly
targeted at specific groups and the range of subsidized
fuels has declined. In 2010, Indonesia announced plans to
eliminate energy subsidies by 2014; to phase out the use of
kerosene in favour of LPG and to restrict subsidized fuel to
motorcycles, public transport vehicles and older cars; and
raised power tariffs by about 10 per cent. In 2010, Malaysia
announced plans to reduce subsidies for petrol, diesel and
LPG, while Pakistan plans to phase out electricity subsidies
and has implemented a 20 per cent tariff increase.
The expected benefits of these policies are to:
reduce the burden on state budgets;
prevent use of public funds to support the wealthiest and
largest energy consumers;
ensure that alternative energy sources are at least equally
attractive to consumers; and
reduce environmental damage and contributions to climate
change from excessive use of fossil fuels.
Source: IEA/OECD/World Bank 2010
267
Box 10.7 Adaptation policies in the Maldives

Although they are the smallest contributors of greenhouse
gas emissions, small island states are among the most
vulnerable to climate change impacts, especially sea
level rise, ocean acidification and increased storm severity
and frequency. For example, with more than half the
settlements and most of the critical infrastructure of the
Maldives within 100 metres of the coast, there is serious
concern about projections that 85 per cent of the country
could be below sea level by 2100 (Khan et al. 2002).
Recognizing this threat, the Maldives was the first country
to declare its intention to be carbon neutral by 2019 (UNEP
2009a) and to view climate change as a critical national
development challenge.
construction sector; higher property values in secure areas;

and increased security and resilience of affected communities.
Limitations include the environmental costs associated with
large-scale infrastructure such as higher flood levees; social
costs if communities or infrastructure need to be relocated away
from vulnerable zones; investment costs in climate proofing
and possible compensation costs for affected properties and
companies; and the political costs of diverting funds to retrofit
old and new infrastructure.
The policy cluster on land management for carbon sequestration
aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from unsustainable
land-use practices, including forest loss, biomass decomposition
after harvesting, peat fires and decaying drained peat soils,
which may contribute 1520 per cent of total global emissions
(van der Werf et al. 2009; IPCC 2007; WRI 2005). In South East
Asia, emissions from inappropriate land use and forest loss
may account for as much as 75 per cent of the total from that
sub-region, mostly from forest loss in Indonesia (ADB 2010).
Halving deforestation rates by 2050 and maintaining that level
Bunaken National Park, a locally managed marine area in Indonesia,

where tourism revenues have contributed to reducing local poverty.
Piero Malaer/iStock
268
In response, the Seventh National Development Plan adopted a

policy of identifying ten safer islands, future refuges for people
displaced as a result of climate change. This policy includes
high-cost infrastructure such as sea walls and desalination
plants, and even artificial islands such as Hulhumal in Mal
Atoll. The government has also implemented a softer set of
policy measures under the Integrating Climate Change Risks
into Resilient Island Planning in the Maldives programme (GEF
2009), which involves working with nature to increase resilience,
including coastal afforestation, replenishing natural ridges,
climate proofing drainage, coral reef propagation, mangrove
planting and beach nourishment. Each island community is
involved in choosing which measures are most appropriate.
until 2100 would account for 12 per cent of the total emission
reductions needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppm
(FAO 2010; Gullison et al. 2007). Protection of coastal wetlands
and marine ecosystems can also mitigate emissions (Crooks
et al. 2011). Principal benefits include the conservation and
supply of ecosystem services such as biodiversity and water
supply and quality; maintenance of indigenous cultural practices;
soil conservation; and promotion of local livelihoods. Limitations
include possible conflicts with other development objectives;
impingement of local economic aspirations due to restrictions
applied by protected area managers; and more costly land
management practices.
Biodiversity
The selected biodiversity goal contains elements of conservation
of biological diversity, sustainable use of its components, and
the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits of using genetic
resources (Box 10.2).
The policy cluster for conservation of biodiversity promotes
the creation of protected areas, including areas that connect
landscapes and seascapes, through identifying areas of high
but threatened biodiversity value and biodiversity corridors
that link protected areas as a system. The notable progress
in the establishment of terrestrial and marine protected areas
reported in the Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (CBD 2010)
may be attributed to explicit policies on protected areas,
with many countries in Asia and the Pacific using legislation
to establish protected areas (CBD 2010). Existing policies
on protected areas may need further improvement, yet they
provide a good foundation for attaining the global objective
of biodiversity conservation. Commitments like the Convention
on Biological Diversity (CBD), the Ramsar Convention on
Wetlands, the World Heritage Convention and new funding
mechanisms often drive both the establishment and
improved effectiveness of protected areas. A shift from
revenue generation to a conservation policy mandate has
effectively reduced associated illegal land-use change.
Box 10.8 Pacific islands: locally managed marine areas

Defying the current trend of habitat destruction, an
outstanding example of community-based management of
coastal resources comes from the South Pacific. In the past
decade, more than 12000 km2 have been brought under a
community-based system of marine resource management
known as locally managed marine areas. The initiative
involves 500 communities in 15 Pacific island states and
has helped achieve widespread livelihood and conservation
objectives based on traditional knowledge, customary
tenure and governance, combined with local awareness of
the need for action and the likely benefits, including the
recovery of natural resources, greater food security, and

improved governance and health. In Fiji, for example, the
results of implementing locally managed marine areas since
1997 have included a 20-fold increase in clam density in
areas where fishing is banned, an average 200300 per
cent increase in harvests in adjacent areas, a tripling of fish
catches, and a 3545 per cent rise in household incomes.
Such initiatives have the potential to be widely replicated
wherever the socio-cultural environment is appropriate.
Challenges remain in ensuring that protected areas are part

of an ecologically representative network, on land and at sea,
and to provide effective protection for threatened and endemic
species (ACB 2010). Many protected areas in Asia and the
Pacific have communities within or on their periphery for whom
formal recognition of stewardship, traditional livelihoods and
conservation traditions is necessary. Formal recognition of
indigenous and local community-conserved areas (Box 10.8)
would increase the ecological coverage of legally protected areas
and support community rights in protecting the sites. Possible

limitations include competition with development objectives,
difficulties in measuring the real values of conservation against
development activities yielding shorter-term economic returns,
and institutional and individual capacity to effectively enforce
conservation laws.
Source: Govan et al. 2008
Also covered under this policy cluster are regional cooperation

initiatives on transboundary protected areas and biodiversity
Figure 10.2 Selected biodiversity policies

Short term
Medium term
Long term
Direct
Improved management of protected
areas including biodiversity corridors
Illegal wildlife trade control
Minimize land-use change, especially

deforestation
Nature-based solution for global problem

and co-benefit, i.e. REDD+ to prevent
deforestation and increase carbon
sequestration
Mainstream innovative financing for

conservation
Charismatic species conservation

Valuation of ecosystem services
following TEEB as a planning tool
Invasive alien species management
Ecologically representative protected

area system
Community-based management
of ecosystems
Indirect
Equity, rights and access; rights-based

approach to conservation
National and regional access and benefitsharing regime following the

Nagoya Protocol
Regional cooperation on transboundary

protected areas
Policy cluster
Habitat management
Sustainable use
Species conservation
Options for sharing the costs and benefits of conservation

Note: TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity study (TEEB 2012).
269
corridors. Transboundary collaboration fosters the cooperation

of national institutions to benefit multiple countries, as
demonstrated by several examples involving cross-boundary
interest in protecting areas with high levels of biodiversity
such as the Greater Mekong sub-region, Terai Arc landscape
in India and Nepal, Sulu-Sulawesi marine areas and the Coral
Triangle. The benefits from this cooperation are an augmentation
of national efforts, transfer of capacities across countries
and twin conservation efforts involving several stakeholders
across borders. The key challenges are sustainability, differing
capacities of institutions involved and the political nature of the
cooperation whenever sensitive sovereign issues arise.
The targeted species conservation policy cluster is intended to
protect species such as tigers, elephants, pandas, saola an
extremely rare antelope discovered in Viet Nam in 1994 and Laos
in 1994 (Schaller and Vrba 1996) or other species of biological,
economic, spiritual and cultural importance, including species
covered by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered
Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). These policies protect
species from capture and hunting, being kept as pets or being
traded for medicinal or food purposes, as well as promoting
their well-being in captivity, such as in wildlife parks or zoos. The
policies not only protect valuable species but also help to spread
a broader conservation message of the need to conserve species
and their habitats. Charismatic species also act as rallying points

for political support, promote nature-based tourism and help
leverage resources for broader institutional support. The main
limitations are that there may be too much attention on such
individual species, drawing support away from others in their
native habitat.
Invasive alien species, especially in island ecosystems with high
endemism, are a major threat to species conservation. Apart from
national quarantine processes and regional networks like the
Asia-Pacific Forest Invasive Species Network, control mechanisms
are limited. However, there have been a few cases of successful
eradication of invasive alien species in the region (GISP 2009).
The illegal wildlife trade policy cluster, based around CITES,
is intended to eliminate the illegal wildlife trade, including by
strengthening border controls and training customs officials to
recognize endangered species, and through campaigns to raise
awareness and publicity surrounding successful enforcement
cases (ASEAN-WEN 2009). Benefits include the protection of
natural assets and saving certain species from extinction. There
are also significant co-benefits in the form of improving law and
order generally (as wildlife crime is often associated with other
criminal activities), improved governance structures and better
response mechanisms for wildlife protection within national
borders. The main limitations are the need for heavy investment
in law enforcement, possibly denying the customary rights of
indigenous communities to access non-timber forest products,
and possible social conflict where bushmeat is an accepted
social norm and a significant source of protein (van Vliet 2011).
The community management policy cluster includes comanagement, stewardship of traditional owners, recognition
of property-use rights, and policies establishing various
sustainable forest and fisheries management schemes. Benefits
include better conservation outcomes, expanded livelihood
opportunities, income diversification, poverty reduction, reduced
tension between state and citizen, and better governance and
institutional reform (Box 10.8). Potential limitations are the
capture of economic benefits by an elite, exclusion and conflicts
within communities, and a need for both long-term investment
and capacity building.
The Bengal Tigers left in the wild is estimated at to be between 3 000

to 3,900 individuals, with most populations occurring in small groups
isolated from each other. Neal McClimon/iStock
270
The policy cluster on innovative financing mechanisms provides

incentives for communities to remain engaged in conservation
and institutionalizes their involvement. Countries testing
innovative financing mechanisms like payment for ecosystem
services under a green growth paradigm are increasing (Box 10.9).
Nature-based solutions to climate change such as Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+)
offer potential for social and biodiversity co-benefits by avoiding
land-use change, which is the major driver of biodiversity loss in
the tropics (Chapter 1). Challenges to mainstreaming economic
instruments for conservation remain in terms of high resource
degradation and increasing pressure, as well as difficulties in
streamlining supportive policy and legal regimes, institutional
mechanisms, and equity and rights of the community.
Box 10.9 Promoting sustainable use of biodiversity: payment for ecosystem services in China and Viet Nam
China: A national environmental policy framework that
promotes eco-compensation as a key principle aims to
promote sustainable use of natural resources and more
balanced growth across regions. China has been implementing
some of the largest payment for ecosystem services schemes
in the world. For example, more than US$15 billion has been
spent since 1999 on the conversion of cropland to forest and
grasslands. This programme pays farmers to withdraw land
from agricultural use and afforest or plant grasses on sloping
and marginal cropland covering more than 9 million hectares.
Similarly, almost US$2 billion has been invested in a forest
ecosystems compensation fund, which pays households,
communities and local governments to protect key forest
areas, now covering 44 million hectares. The success of these
schemes has created a healthy debate in the government on
how to make improvements and has provided the impetus
for exploring and developing other market-based tools and
innovations to address the countrys challenge of balancing
growth with environmental concerns. Recently, the government
has called for emission-fee reforms for key natural resources,
improved resource taxation and fees for mineral resource
use, which will expand the horizon for eco-compensation
mechanisms. These policy experiences are contributing to the
drafting of a national law on the eco-compensation framework.
Viet Nam: Under funding from the US Agency for International
Developments Regional Development Mission for Asia, the
Asia Regional Biodiversity Conservation Programme has
implemented a successful pilot project on payment for forest
environmental services in Lam Dong Province, which has
The policy cluster on access and benefit sharing for the equitable
use of genetic resources includes recognition of the rights of
indigenous stewards of ecosystems, intellectual property rights
protection and regulations preventing biopiracy. The policy
cluster draws heavily on the outcome of CBD negotiations on
access and benefit sharing, notably the Bonn Guidelines (CBD
2002) and the subsequent international regime. Adoption of the
Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and
Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their Utilization (CBD
2011) will guide the ongoing effort for developing national and
regional agreements. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) draft agreement on Access to Biological and Genetic
Resources, combined with draft policies and laws on access to
genetic resources, benefit sharing and traditional knowledge
in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Mongolia, Nepal and Sri Lanka, will
provide additional incentives for implementation.
The principal benefits of these policies include providing an
additional incentive for indigenous communities dependent on
natural resources to maintain a full range of biological diversity,
a fair and equitable return from investors that stand to make
improved the livelihoods of 40 000 rural poor and promoted

biodiversity conservation while informing the design and
subsequent issue of a national decree on such schemes. The
decree creates the legal framework for integrating the value
of ecosystem services in two pilot areas Lam Dong and
Son La provinces. The policy facilitates payment for forest
management while improving the incomes of the communities
that provide those management services.
The buyers of the forest services are the electric and water
utilities paying for water regulation and soil conservation,
and tourism operators paying for the landscape amenity.
The Lam Dong pilot area involves high-priority conservation
areas in Cat Tien National Park and Bi Doup-Nui Ba National
Park, as well as providing a link to the Dong Nai River Basin
Conservation Landscape. By December 2010, payments of
more than US$4 million for the protection of 210000 hectares
of forest had been made to 22 forest management boards and
forestry businesses as well as to 9870 predominantly ethnicminority households, each of which receives US$540615
annually. Forest protection patrols supported by the scheme
resulted in half the number of cases of illegal logging and
wildlife poaching in one priority watershed area. Replication of
this approach throughout Viet Nam would make a significant
difference in the incentives to retain forest habitats and protect
biodiversity, especially if the pool of buyers of ecosystem
services can be expanded for example to those investing in
carbon sequestration through carbon offsets.
Source: (China) Zhang et al. 2010; SDPC 2000; (Viet Nam) Winrock International 2011
a profit from capitalizing on indigenous knowledge and/or

stewardship, and a means for governments to protect a national
heritage. The main limitations are the difficulties in identifying
communities practising traditional knowledge, and its objective
validation both for effective rewards and for overcoming potential
constraints on voluntary research.
Freshwater
The global goal on freshwater selected for Asia and the Pacific
targets improvement of water allocation, conservation of both
the quantity and quality of water resources, and the safeguarding
of ecosystems (Box 10.3; Figure 10.3). These could be achieved
by systematic promotion and application of integrated water
resources management as a policy-planning framework.
The concept of integrated water resources management has been
in place for almost 30 years and many countries have tried to set
up institutional frameworks for it. In practice, however, only a
handful of countries in the region have established the necessary
legal and institutional capacities for its implementation
(UNESCO-WWAP 2006). In most countries, organizational
271
Figure 10.3 Selected freshwater policies

Short term
High
cost
Medium term
Long term
Development of new dams

and reservoirs
Development of wastewater
treatment facilities
Better utilization of existing dams
Promotion of water reuse and recycling
Forming a river basin organization or

water users association
Reduction of non-revenue water
Stipulating regular quality monitoring
Application of integrated water

resource management in resource
planning
Participatory irrigation management
Development of communication
tools with the public
Application of economic instruments

Introducing the polluter-pays
principle
Low
cost
Rainwater harvesting
Policy cluster
Promotion of public-private
partnership
Incorporation of the ecosystem

approach to water resource
management
Setting of discharge standards
Water-use eciency
Water quality
Water allocation and cooperation
Comprehensive
Basic human needs
reform has involved setting up apex water bodies and river

basin organizations to implement the integrated approach.
However, water resources are still managed primarily through
a sectoral approach in which policy is shaped by each agency
in charge, often without cross-sectoral coordination and with
occasional tensions (Molle and Hoanh 2009; Bandaragoda
2006). The application of integrated management can contribute
to sustainable water resource use by integrating and balancing
human needs with conservation and the restoration of
ecosystems, and will enable the region to cope with complex
and unpredictable challenges such as future climate change
impacts related to changing patterns of extreme events including
droughts and tropical cyclones (typhoons) (Chapter 4).
The water allocation and cooperation policy cluster aims to
achieve an acceptable balance between potentially competing
water uses and involves enhanced conflict management and
cooperation capacities. Typical policies may involve assigning
existing local communities to implement water resources
management, establishing water users associations or river
basin organizations with explicit mandates to manage potential
conflicts, using multi-stakeholder participation to draw up
basin development plans, or setting up conflict resolution
panels. Cooperation institutions established in river basins have
helped to reduce potential water related conflicts in Central
Asia (Abdullaev and Atabaeva 2011). For example, the inclusion
of water users in the canal water management system in the
272
Fergana Valley of Central Asia improved transparency and more

equitable water distribution (Abdullaev et al. 2009a, 2009b;
Dukhovny et al. 2008; Abdullaev et al. 2006). In Australia,
the Murray-Darling agreement and its implementing agency is
another example of basin-level institutional arrangements that
have been emulated in other countries.

The pioneering of community-based participatory irrigation
management in Andhra Pradesh, India shows the importance
of water users associations in leading such initiatives (Gupta
2010; Narain 2003; Ballabh 2002; Mollinga 2001; Parthasarathy
2000; Shashidharan 2000). While the policy has not been an
unqualified success, a state-level federated structure of users
associations was created, followed by district- and farmer-level
organization structures with well-defined mandates, transparent
systems and people-centred decision making. At the local
scale, these policies have contributed to increased financial
capacity through revenue generation from the group members
and the incorporation of a watershed management approach.
The main limitations have been difficulties in scaling up from
a pilot project level due to resistance from those who were
benefiting from the status quo, prolonged water scarcity, and
unsustainable institutional arrangements once external project
funding came to an end.
The basic human needs policy cluster relates to satisfying
the need for water and is oriented towards improving and/or
Box 10.10 Uzbekistan: improving the capacity of

existing reservoirs in Central Asia
Irrigation is the primary consumer of water in arid countries.
In Central Asia it underpins economic development,
employment and food security, with reservoirs playing an
important role in making it possible. More than 250 large
reservoirs with a total volume of more than 163 km3 were
constructed in the region from 1950 to 1990, but most
are now silted up. To improve capacity, a state agency in
Uzbekistan formulated a policy option to study and desilt existing reservoirs. This has so far allowed savings of
US$250000 and helped to increase reservoir volume by up
to 10 per cent. The policy has now been adopted as standard
procedure by the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources.
Source: Rakhmatullaev et al. 2010; White 2010; Vrsmarty et al. 2003;
Yang 2003; WCD 2000; Mahmood 1987
increasing the volume of stored water along with the resulting

flexibility in use. Policies include planning guidelines to store
urban storm water run-off for watering public gardens or for
street cleaning, or requiring buildings above a certain size to
store water collected on the roof. Rainwater harvesting is already
included in national and local policies in some countries such
as Sri Lanka (Government of Sri Lanka 2007), Australia (Meinzen
2009) and in some states of India (Rainwater Harvesting
Organization 2011). Support for construction of farm dams and
renovating existing dams to extract greater volumes of water
through application of new technologies are feasible policy
options (Box 10.10). National policies on the construction of
large water storage facilities for flood control, hydropower and
irrigation have potential immediate benefits, but often induce
concerns over environmental and social impacts (WCD 2000).

The water-use efficiency policy cluster promotes the application
of economic instruments, especially in urban areas, including
graduated pricing based on the type of water use and volume,
pollution charges and combined payments for water and
sanitation. The benefits of economic instruments include
behavioural change inducing water saving by users, increased
revenue for social measures and the operation and maintenance
of the water supply. Experience from Cambodia and the
Philippines shows that it is possible to improve access to safe
drinking water significantly in cities and rural areas (IFAD 2011;
ADB 2009c). The principal limitations are the difficulties of
making water a priced service rather than a free good, higher
management costs, potential cost burdens on some users, shifts
to non-priced water resources such as groundwater, unpopularity
with politicians who are reluctant to impose new charges and
delays in effective institutionalization. Reducing the use of
un-priced water is a way of improving water-use efficiency but it
needs investment and staff capacity development (Frauendorfer
and Liemberger 2010). Manila Water and the Phnom Penh Water
Supply Authority have significantly reduced un-priced water use
through management improvements (ADB 2009c).
The water environment policy cluster includes strengthening
legislation and the implementation of water quality management
by ensuring regular monitoring and reporting, applying the
polluter-pays principle through pollution fees, incorporating
total pollution load control systems, and mandating treatment
levels for different categories of wastewater. The promotion of
industrial and domestic wastewater treatment also contributes
to improving water quality. Public communication strategies
such as a water quality index should also be considered as a
way of drawing attention to changes in water quality. The main
benefit is that sufficient water of the desired quality becomes
available, thus reversing current trends. Improved water quality
reduces health risks and helps achieve one of the Millennium
The historic Iwabuchi floodgate, in Tokyo, remains crucial for communities living along two of Japans rapidly-flowing, flood-prone rivers. Juergen Sack
273
Box 10.11 The Yellow River, China: balancing environmental and human needs through quotas and pricing reform
Several provinces share water from northern Chinas Yellow
(Huang) River. The river began exhibiting a partial failure
to reach the sea in 1972 and continuous interruption was
observed after 1987. The annual frequency of cut-off days
reached its peak of 226 days in 1997, and the severe
reduction in flow impaired the ecosystem health of the river
basin as well as its services to society.
In 1998, the National Development and Reform
Commission, formerly the State Development Planning
Commission, and the Ministry of Water Resources issued
annual water-use quotas and a distribution scheme for
the river, as well as the Implementation Regulation for
Water Resource Allocation among Provinces in the Huang
River Basin. These management policies determined total
water withdrawals on the basis of hydrology, the need
for sediment transport and other ecological factors, and
established annual provincial water withdrawals including
a seasonal distribution plan for greater withdrawal in the
rainy season than in the dry season.
In March 1999, the Yellow River Water Conservancy
Commission issued the first water withdrawal quota
Development Goals. The benefits to industry and the water

supply sector are lower water treatment costs. Limitations
include the high wastewater treatment costs and the difficulty
in convincing polluters, especially marginal small to mediumsized enterprises, to undertake the necessary control measures
directive and started the water withdrawal control plan

for the whole basin. This policy was extended from the
main Yellow River to its tributaries in 2006. In the same
year, the State Council issued Water Withdrawal and
Water Resource Fee Collection Rules, marking a new
chapter in water management policy based on economic
measures such as water pricing and resource fees.
Trade in water user rights between various sectors was
observed in some provinces.
Implementation of these policies has ensured
uninterrupted flow of the river to the sea since 2000 and
improved the water resource and ecological health of the
whole basin. Ecosystem integrity and biological diversity
have improved greatly. Rare species have reappeared, with
the number of bird species in Shandong Yellow River Delta
National Nature Reserve rising from 187 in 2000 to 283
by 2006. Populations of rare and endangered plant and
animal species in the Shell and Wetland System Nature
Reserve doubled over the same five-year period.
Source: Wang and Zhang 2010; UNEP 2008b; State Council 2006a, 2006b;
NDRC 1998a, 1998b
voluntarily, thus requiring resolute implementation of the

polluter-pays principle and command-and-control regulations.
Ensuring environmental flow, which requires a high level of
political commitment, is also important for the health of water
bodies (Box 10.11).
Chemicals and waste
The global goal for chemicals and waste focuses on life-cycle
analysis, transparency and risk assessment for a participatory
approach to minimize risks to human health and the environment
(Box 10.4; Figure 10.4).
The Asia and Pacific region is facing rapidly growing challenges
in waste and chemicals management, fuelled by the regions
combination of strong economic growth and population increase,
and its rapid industrialization and urbanization. In low- and
middle-income countries in particular, volumes of waste are
growing and waste streams are becoming increasingly complex,
containing ever larger amounts of hazardous substances (Harhay
et al. 2009). The capacity to collect and properly treat this
waste is lagging, with consequent impacts on human health
and the environment. Similarly, the use of agricultural and
industrial chemicals and the unintended generation of hazardous
substances are escalating, leading to impacts that are currently
poorly monitored and therefore little understood.
Due to industrial waste and urban sewage, Nanchuan is now one of

Chinas most contaminated rivers. Sinopictures
274
The policy cluster on product redesign and sustainable

consumption addresses these problems at source, but it will
Box 10.12 Phase-out of ozone-depleting substances in India

Over the past two decades, the government of India has
undertaken a number of policy measures to encourage
technologies that do no damage to the ozone layer. These
include licensing the export and import of ozone-depleting
substances (ODS); granting duty exemptions for goods needed
to comply with the Montreal Protocols Multilateral Fund,
under which India is entitled to assistance for phasing out ODS
and switching to technologies that do not depend on such
substances; and stopping investment in new projects that
make use of them.
As a producer and user of seven of the 20 substances controlled
under the Montreal Protocol, India acceded to the treaty in
1992. In 1993, India prepared a detailed country programme
to phase out ODS and subsequently updated the programme in
2006 in consultation with the Confederation of Indian Industry
and other stakeholders. In 1997, India was producing almost
40 000 tonnes of ODS, primarily the chlorofluorocarbon CFC-12
and carbon tetrachloride (CTC), with domestic consumption
estimated at 14000 tonnes. By 1999, some 226 projects
had been approved by the Multilateral Fund at a cost of
US$58 million and estimated to remove 7682 tonnes of ODS
from the aerosol, foam, halon, air conditioning and solvent
take a relatively long time to realize its full potential. Effective

solutions to the challenges of waste and chemicals require
preventive approaches. Substances with hazardous properties
need to be phased out and replaced with safer options as
far as possible. Production systems and products need to be
redesigned with their full life cycle in mind, minimizing resource
consumption, chemical hazards and waste generation. Overall,
there is a need to encourage more sustainable patterns of
consumption that can deliver quality of life with the minimum
environmental burden.
industries. As of 2010, India had successfully phased out

the production and consumption of CFCs, CTC and halons as
specified by the Montreal Protocol and excepting the use of
pharmacy-grade CFCs for respiratory ailments. A complete,
step-wise phase-out was proposed for all ODS by 2040.
The successful phase-out of ODS in India, as well as being
attributed to the above policy provisions, is also associated
with the creation of a national ozone cell and an empowered
steering committee supported by a technology and finance
standing committee and a standing committee on monitoring.
Other factors included involving Indian industry from the
beginning and awareness campaigns for the general public
and affected industries. A detailed monitoring mechanism was
set up and the ozone cell in the national environment agency
conducted site inspections and ensured that funds were used
appropriately, timely progress reports were submitted, and the
intended impacts were being achieved. Similar success stories
from other countries in the Asia and Pacific region suggest
that Indias policy approaches for implementing the Montreal
Protocol are readily transferable.
Source: UNEP 2010; WMO 2010; Ozone Cell 1999
that they were previously able to shift to the public domain,

although evidence suggests that taking a life-cycle approach can
often also reduce production costs (Barringer 2003).
Several actions towards this objective are already being

taken. Green public procurement has proven an effective
tool for creating a market for improved products, including
those made of recycled materials (FOEN 2008). Extended
producer responsibility for electronics has promoted
design changes and fostered closer collaboration between
manufacturers and recyclers. A good example of chemical
substitution has been the phasing out of ozone-depleting
substances under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that
Deplete the Ozone Layer (Box 10.12). Waste avoidance has
had some success for industrial waste but has proven more
challenging for household waste.
The principal benefits of such policies include minimizing the
need for waste treatment and chemical safety measures, and a
reduction in both illegal waste dumping and pollution. The main
limitation is that some companies may have to internalize costs
Decentralized wastewater treatment system in Nadu, India, for small

volume usage. Chinch Gryniewicz/SpecialistStock
275
Figure 10.4 Selected chemical and waste policies

Short term
Medium term
Long term
Direct
Use of industrial by-products
industrial symbiosis
Recycling systems for post-consumer

waste
Collection systems and safe treatment

facilities for waste and chemicals
New technologies for treatment and

remediation of chemical pollutants
International collaboration, including

technical and financial assistance
Indirect
Strengthened capacity for risk

assessment and monitoring of
hazardous chemicals
Policy frameworks integrating waste

management, resource eciency and
chemical safety
Safeguards against export of

hazardous materials to countries with
inadequate treatment capacity
Ratification and implementation of

multilateral environmental agreements
More sustainable products, services

and consumption patterns
Policy cluster
Reduction of waste and hazardous chemicals
Safe treatment and final disposal
Recycling and resource recovery
Implementation arrangements
The policy cluster on collection systems and treatment facilities

aims to ensure that, once products are in circulation, priority
is given to reuse and recycling, with energy recovery and safe
disposal as less desirable options. Industrial and municipal
solid wastes pose different challenges and require different
approaches, although there may be synergies in combined
treatment. Effective policy interventions need to cover all stages,
including efficient collection systems, safe treatment facilities
and functioning markets for recovered materials. The cost of
establishing systems of a high environmental standard may
seem challenging, but the cost of inaction is also significant.
Effective technologies are widely available, including both hightech solutions and systems based on traditional practices. In
Japan, for example, more than 50 million tonnes of solid waste
are burned every year, often generating electricity and providing
district heating. In 2000, Japan set a target to reduce dioxin
emissions from incinerators by about 92 per cent from 1997
levels a target achieved by 2003, with over 2000 industrial
waste incinerators shut down. The revised target in 2003 was to
achieve a further reduction of 30 per cent by 2010 (MOEJ 2007;
JFS 2005). The Republic of Korea has been particularly successful
in introducing source separation of food waste for separate
treatment, a policy that has significantly reduced the emissions
of greenhouse gases from waste treatment (Lee 2006).
Community-based composting has also been successfully
introduced in many cities across Asia and the Pacific, reducing
disposal needs and the associated costs for municipalities
(ESCAP/IGES 2011).
276
The principal benefits of these policies include the obvious direct

environmental and health benefits as well as the longer-term
indirect and/or cumulative impacts of lower concentrations of
toxic and hazardous materials. The main limitations of recycling
have been associated with finding markets for recovered
materials, leading to diminished private-sector enthusiasm after
an initial period.
The international collaboration policy cluster addresses the
need for a joint approach to meeting challenges as the regions
countries become more integrated (Aziz 2010; Nag 2010). This
is particularly relevant to waste and chemicals, since end-of-life
products and recyclable materials are increasingly traded across
borders (Box 10.13), and many chemical pollutants, such as
persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and mercury, can spread
far from their sources. Developing countries and economies in
transition are facing particular challenges in formulating and
implementing effective policies to address these problems:
international collaboration can provide the technical and financial
resources needed. Regional monitoring systems for chemicals in
the environment such as the POPs Global Monitoring Programme
have been instrumental in identifying pollution sources for the
formulation of effective action (UNEP 2008a).
The benefits of these policies depend on the form of
collaboration. Strengthening the technical and governance
capacity for waste and chemicals has obvious and direct
benefits for human health and the environment. Effective and
Box 10.13 Ship breaking in South Asia: implementing a new international environmental agreement
Normally, recycling of materials is regarded as an
environmental benefit, but in some cases, such as ship
breaking and recycling of e-waste and batteries, the long-term
exposure and labour-intensive methods used in developing
countries result in negative local impacts on the environment
and human health. Since the 1980s, the global centre of
ship dismantling and recycling has been South Asia, with
Bangladesh, India and Pakistan accounting for 7080 per cent
of the international market. The industry not only provides
large volumes of recycled iron and steel, plus other materials,
but also creates jobs for thousands of workers from the
poorest segments of the population. The direct and indirect
beneficiaries in Bangladesh alone are estimated to be half a
million people. The majority of workers are young, male and
functionally illiterate, often living in cramped shacks near the
recycling yards, thus adding to health concerns.
Obsolete ships contain a wide range of hazardous materials
for which there are no adequate treatment facilities or
occupational health and safety measures in the South Asian
yards. Ship breaking is regarded as a pollution haven
industry, often seeking out jurisdictions with lax environmental
controls. However, in 2009, the Bangladesh High Court
directed that all ship breaking yards without Department of
Environment clearance should close within two weeks, and
safe treatment of hazardous materials can be ensured if these

operations are carried out in countries with adequate capacity
and if shipments to other countries are prevented. Enhanced
international information sharing enables traceability and
effective preventive action, including strengthened control of
transboundary movements.
ordered new rules to be formulated requiring all ship breaking

yards to obtain an environmental clearance certificate.
In recognition of these environmental dangers, the
International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally
Sound Recycling of Ships (the Hong Kong Convention) was
adopted in May 2009 and is expected to come into force in
2015. A key requirement is to remove hazardous materials
before recycling commences. The Hong Kong Convention
will require signatories to ensure that ships are recycled
only in countries that are a party to the convention, and
in facilities that meet its work safety and hazardous waste
handling requirements. An inventory of hazardous materials
will need to be completed by the ship owner and provided
to the recycler, so that the ability to handle the wastes can
be checked. The convention will also specify that certain
hazardous materials should not be used in the construction
of new ships, thus avoiding these problems when the newer
generation of ships is scrapped.
The convention will require South Asian nations to revise
their legislation and invest heavily in improved procedures,
equipment and facilities if they want to continue this business.
Source: Sarraf et al. 2010; EC 2007; Andersen 2001
Integration can be supported through impact assessment and

monitoring as well as mainstreaming mitigation measures.
The global goal on governance relates to strengthening the
multiple dimensions of sustainable development (Box 10.5).
Four key policy clusters were identified that could accelerate
its achievement (Figure 10.5). Capacity development, access to
education and information remain as underlying enabling factors
for the effectiveness of each policy cluster.
The policy integration and mainstreaming cluster aims to
integrate sustainable development functions, which are
commonly fragmented between different ministries and agencies
with weak coordination. Increased policy integration and
strengthening the capacity of environment and related ministries
and agencies at different levels of government can promote
win-win opportunities for environment and development. This
integration would not only strengthen the organizational capacity
and decision-making influence of environment ministries,
but also enhance accountability regarding the potential
environmental and social impacts of development projects.
A shipbreaking yard in Chittagong, Bangladesh, where workers

are exposed to heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants.
Pierre Torset /Stillpictures
277
Figure 10.5 Selected governance policies

Short term
Medium term
Long term
Direct
Greening fiscal policy, supportive fiscal

incentives, reinvestment in natural
capital
Environmental courts, green benches,

dispute settlement mechanisms
Participation, transparency, information

disclosure and access
Integration (vertical and horizontal),

application of subsidiarity and
proportionality principles, environmental
impact assessment, integrated
sustainability assessment, strategic
environmental assessment
Indirect
Policy cluster
Strengthening incentive structures
Compliance and enforcement
Accountability and stakeholder participation
Policy integration and mainstreaming
Opportunities for integration include decrees, constitutional

amendments, presidential committees and independent
peer reviews, or environmental focal points within ministries
(Dalal-Clayton and Bass 2009; Jordan and Lenschow 2009).
Some degree of mainstreaming is practised by Australia, China,
Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea (Box 10.14).
Benefits include a more inclusive policy making process,
greater coherence of policies and improved implementation.
Environmental agendas, however, can be watered down by
other stakeholders, and sectoral ministries are not always
keen to promote the development projects with the least
environmental impacts.
In some cases, achievement of global sustainability goals can

be accelerated by allocating authority at more appropriate levels
(Berger and Steurer 2009), for example through decentralization
and the introduction of participatory approaches in natural
resource management (Box 10.15). Delegation of authority
needs to be linked with appropriate budget authority, human
resources, capacity building and reporting mechanisms to ensure
effectiveness and public support (Jordan and Lenschow 2009).
At upstream planning stages, environmental impact assessment
for individual projects, cumulative impact assessment for
series of projects, and strategic environmental assessment for
Box 10.14 Low-carbon green growth in the Republic of Korea and China
The Republic of Korea has formulated a National Strategy for
Green Growth with an overall vision of becoming a global green
leader by 2020, focusing on the following broad objectives:
mitigation of climate change and energy independence,
creation of new engines for economic growth, improvement in
quality of life and enhancement of international standing. The
strategy is supported by a Green Growth Framework Act and a
five-year action plan with targets for greenhouse gas emission
reductions, carbon absorption by forests and afforestation.
The National Peoples Congress has set China on a more
sustainable and low-carbon development path through the 12th
Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development
(20112015). Among its binding targets are a 16 per cent
278
reduction in energy intensity, a 17 per cent reduction in carbon

intensity, a 6 per cent increase in forest stock volume and a
1.3 per cent increase in forest coverage relative to 2010 levels
(Lommen 2011). Chinas National Development and Reform
Commission plays a crucial role in fostering policy integration.
The green growth approach (ESCAP 2005) is an initiative from
this region that works to integrate environmental sustainability
concerns into overall policy making. It aims to improve the ecoefficiency of economic growth, minimizing resource use and
negative environmental impacts. The concept is seen as a key
strategy for sustainable development.
Source: ESCAP 2011a
Box 10.15 Participation in the management of

natural resources in India and Nepal
In India, about 22 million hectares of forests are under the
Joint Forest Management programme, where more than
100000 committees formed by forest-fringe communities
protect state-owned forest patches, receiving in turn a
share of forest resources (MOEF 2009a). In conjunction
with stringent legislation against the use of forest land
for non-forestry purposes, these measures have helped
stabilize forest cover after decades of rapid deforestation
(MOEF 2009b). Additional incentives for participation have
been created by a constitutional amendment that mandates
decentralization and devolution of power to local authorities
at district, block and village levels (MLJ 2011). In Nepal,
over 14000 community forest user groups have access to
fuelwood and fodder, and are additionally provided with
income-generating opportunities (DoF 2011).
policies, plans and programmes all provide essential information

(World Bank 2006). Ultimately, fully integrated sustainability
assessment is desirable (UNEP 2009b). Benefits include reduced
risk of harm to human health or livelihoods due to environmental
damage, protection of resources and improved cost-effectiveness
of environmental protection measures. Moreover, reduced future
remediation costs, political acceptance of the need for preventive
and remedial measures, and better institutional collaboration are
also beneficial. Assessments have some technical limitations as
results are not always well used, and stakeholder participation
is sometimes weak; impact assessments are only effective if
governments commit to ensuring compliance and enforcement of
the changes indicated.
the collection, storage and sharing of information as well as

general access to it, such as requiring industries to self-monitor
and self-report on environmental and social performance as
well as enabling non-governmental organizations to monitor
this information independently. Policy options mandating
environmental monitoring provide useful information for decision
making. Freedom of information laws can enable people to
monitor public- and private- sector performance and demand
compliance and enforcement action, such as promoted by the
Asian Environmental Compliance and Enforcement Network
(AECEN 2011b). Access to information promotes public
participation in decision making, helping to avoid mistakes and
future costs, and increasing political acceptance of remediation
measures. Information disclosure policies provide a sound
basis for decision making, identifying priorities and formulating
cost-effective strategies. Limitations include the difficulties in
collecting relevant and reliable data, potential sensitivities in
data sharing and the long-term costs of data management.
Policies that require multi-stakeholder participation are also
essential to accelerate achievement of the selected global goals.
The benefits of multi-stakeholder participation include improved
environmental performance, access by disadvantaged groups
to redress environmental harm or eliminate potential risks, a
better understanding by all parties of the costs and benefits of
specific actions, improved decision making, increased political
awareness and active participation, and improved cross-sectoral
collaboration. Sometimes institutions accustomed to wielding
excessive power resist increased stakeholder participation,
necessitating the balancing role of civil society. In the region,
the monitoring functions of governments can be usefully
supplemented by civil society, especially in situations where
government capacity is constrained.
The compliance and enforcement cluster encompasses
environmental law and regulation. Imperfect markets, collective
The policy cluster for strengthening incentive structures focuses

on appropriate pricing mechanisms. The current fiscal incentive
structure in many countries does not account for environmental
and social externalities and remains a significant barrier to
sustainability. Improving the fiscal incentive structure can help
accelerate greening of the economy to advance the dual goals of
economic development and environmental sustainability (OECD
2011; ESCAP 2010, 2005). Implementation of green taxes can
secure a double dividend for the economy and the environment
by emphasizing a shift from taxing the goods (labour) to
taxing the bads (unsustainable resource use and pollution)
(UNEP 2011; ESCAP 2005). Such a shift would help alter the
economic incentive structure in favour of environment-friendly
activities, thus reducing trade-offs between economic efficiency
and maintenance of environmental quality. To be successful, it
needs to be implemented as a package and to include awareness
campaigns for political acceptability as well as adequate
safeguards for vulnerable groups.
The accountability and stakeholder participation cluster
addresses the task of integration, which is underpinned by
Terraced hillside in the Annapurna village of Ulleri, Nepal where

community-based forest management provides a significant
contribution to local livelihoods. Christoph Achenbach/iStock
279
Benefits and limitations
The main considerations of benefits and limitations included in

the policy analysis are as follows:
economic and financial;
social;
environmental;
political and institutional; and
distributional.
The transition to a low-carbon society will require large-scale

investment in renewable energy systems. Chinaface/iStock
action issues and equity concerns characterize many of the

environmental issues in the Asia and Pacific region. A final
policy cluster, therefore, focuses on access to the environmental
judiciary, with policies covering the integrated chain of
command-and-control measures, standard setting, monitoring
and reporting, investigations and inspection of environmental
crimes, establishment of environmental police and green
courts, and trained environmental judges and prosecutors.
Examples include the Environmental Court Act of Bangladesh,
the environmental police force in Viet Nam, the green bench
of the Supreme and High Courts and the recently established
Green Tribunal in India as well as regulatory initiatives to combat
corruption in Indonesia and Singapore.
The benefits are to halt or delay potentially environmentally
damaging or risky activities, to reach settlements where damage
has been caused, to save on future remediation costs if risks are
reduced and ultimately to increase social capital. Specialized
courts are important as they reduce the burden on enforcement
agencies, enable conflict resolution and hold government
agencies responsible for implementation. Establishment of green
courts could derive from popular environmental movements
and international treaties. The limitations are that decisions
reached through these procedures are not always enforced, and
potential jurisdictional conflicts may emerge between newly
formed enforcement agencies and existing sectoral agencies.
Court procedures may also be lengthy and costly, thus effectively
excluding disadvantaged groups and poor individuals.
280
In general, the priority policies identified here involve up-front

costs, which have been a significant barrier in the developing
countries of Asia and the Pacific, where investment priorities
have been preferentially directed towards economic growth and
poverty reduction rather than environmental goals. The so-called
low-hanging fruit, such as energy efficiency measures that can be
undertaken relatively easily, are still ripe for harvesting in many
countries, but may not achieve the scale of structural change
needed to contribute to global goals. For example, the transition
to a low-carbon society, which has multiple co-benefits, requires
massive investment in new, renewable energy systems which
are often not the cheapest option under current conditions (ADB
2009b). In addition, the barriers to adopting energy-efficient
technologies can be multi-faceted. The challenge is to change
those circumstances, such as through the elimination of fossil fuel
subsidies and the accelerated depreciation of existing fossil fuel
installations, to create a situation in which renewable energy will
be able to compete on equal terms with coal and oil. Continued
technological development and cooperation on technology
transfer to reduce the costs of this transition are also essential.
The social implications of the priority policies have tended to
receive less attention than the economic issues, but a common
theme is that improved access to information, stakeholder
empowerment, gender equality, access to environmental justice,
and equity and benefit sharing will all assist in the transition
to sustainable development. Safety nets and compensation for
poor households for example when disadvantaged by removal
of subsidies are also part of the mix. The main barriers are
unequal powers and the advantages of elites, conflicting social
and private values and the attraction and psychological power
of conspicuous consumption. Problems of compliance and
enforcement are common from the household to the industry
level, while higher household costs and employment impacts on
declining industries during policy-initiated transitions can hinder
progress. The need to relocate vulnerable communities from
areas of risk can also present a challenge.
The political and institutional consequences of the suggested
priority policies are critical, as it is unlikely that business-asusual regimes will enable such a policy mix to be effectively
implemented. Political benefits are observed from promoting
elements of the green economy that promise economic growth,
new employment opportunities and environmental benefits.
These benefits are best illustrated in the economic stimulus
responses to the global financial crisis, where countries such
as the Republic of Korea and China have led the world in green
stimulus packages. The political downside, however, is reflected
in fears that being a first mover, such as in implementing a

carbon tax approach to combat climate change, will lead to unfair
advantages for those who lag behind. International coordination,
political vision and courage, supported by a willing electorate,
are needed to overcome such fears and become a green pioneer.
Institutional changes are commonly observed to be incremental
tinkering at the margins rather than wholehearted reform. For
example, many countries in Asia and the Pacific have added
climate change responsibilities to an existing environmental
agency rather than seeking widespread institutional reform that
would mainstream climate change across all existing agencies
(IGES 2008). Sub-regional agencies such as the ASEAN Centre for
Biodiversity and the ASEAN Centre of Energy have been created,
but without secured funding to support implementation of their
mandates. Overall, it appears that institutional change in Asia
and the Pacific has been ad hoc rather than systematic.
The distributional impacts of priority policies that determine
who wins and who loses have been barely investigated in
Asia and the Pacific. In the energy sector, fossil fuel industries
stand to lose market share, although leading companies may
ultimately make the transition to alternative energy. In relation
to biodiversity, new funding arrangements such as payment for
ecosystem services including REDD+ suggest that traditional
forest-dependent communities should benefit, but there is
potential for powerful groups to manipulate such schemes and
for traditional users to become losers (Bosetti and Lubowski
2010). In the freshwater sector, agriculture tends to lose out to
urban and industrial water users, as they are prepared to pay
higher prices (Dinar 2000). In waste recycling, traditional waste
collectors and the informal sector are beginning to lose out to
more formalized waste management, as the value of material
resources embedded in waste rises in response to shortages of
raw materials (Medina 2007).
Transfer and replication of successful policies
As most successful policies have had demonstrable success in

a limited range of countries, some only in developed countries,
others in large economies, the objective of this section is to
analyse whether the suggested priority policies are readily
transferable and replicable across national boundaries. If they
cannot easily be transferred because they depend on local
circumstances that are not widely prevalent, they are unlikely
to accelerate the achievement of the selected global goals. The
factors considered include:
how many countries have already implemented such policies;
how quickly the policies have been adopted by multiple
countries since their first introduction;
how easily the private sector has been convinced that the
policies are not harmful to their businesses; and
how the policies have contributed co-benefits that made
them even more acceptable.
Internal replication vertical and horizontal integration
Policy responses in the Asia and Pacific region increasingly
need to adopt a cross-sectoral approach. Even though the
The viability of PES systems including, REDD+, in large part, hinges

on the imperative to support and promote the rights of indigenous
peoples and local communities. Lee Thomas/iStock
identification of the recommended priority policies in one

sector helps focus attention, policy interventions are needed
for simultaneously addressing several of the environmental
challenges listed, and packages of complementary policies
should combine to achieve desirable environmental outcomes
across sectors. For instance, environmental governance for
climate change should not be seen as separate from that for
water, and environmental policies for water cannot be separated
from agriculture and food security because there are interactions
between those concerns as well as with climate change. Policies
that build a communitys capacity to adapt to or deal with
water insecurity in general will facilitate their adaptation to the
effects of climate change. For example, construction of small
reservoirs in upper watershed areas can provide both increased
water security for downstream villages and drought and flood
control to combat climate change. Climate change never has
effects in isolation from those of other drivers or pressures of
environmental change, but tends to aggravate the effects of
existing ones. What seems like a priority policy intervention
today might, over the long run, turn out to be maladapted from
a climate change point of view, thus necessitating constant
learning from experience and flexible, adaptive management.
External replication policy transfers across regions
Many of the policies being adopted in the Asia and Pacific region
had their origin and initial trials in other regions, often Europe
and the United States (Table 10.2). The failure to implement
many policies in this region successfully may stem from overoptimism that if a policy already works in a developed country
then it should also work in a developing one. For example, the
strong command-and-control policy regime to manage air and
water pollution in the United States, involving standard setting,
permits and prosecution of offenders, tends not to work as
well in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific (AECEN
2004). A policy regime built around voluntary compliance,
the social pressures of naming and shaming polluters, and
compensation of victims may be more applicable for the
socio-cultural context of the region, although measures of
effectiveness require further analysis.
281
Table 10.2 Transferability of priority policies in Asia and the Pacific

Priority policies
Transferability considerations
Case examples of existing or potential policy transfer
Clean energy policy: renewable

energy
Resource endowments and local

demand may influence transferability;
technical capacity may be limiting in
some countries
Maldives: mitigation action to achieve carbon neutrality by 2019 (Box 10.7)

Bangladesh: Renewable Energy Technology Program (Mondal et al. 2010)
APEC: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Financing Task Force (APEC
2007); best practice principles for financing energy infrastructure (APEC 2008)
Energy efficiency policy: efficiency

improvements in buildings,
transport and agriculture
Reducing energy demand is difficult to

transfer to economies growing at a fast
pace, like China and India
Japan: energy efficiency and mass transit systems Top Runner programme
(UNEP 2011)
Thailand: energy efficiency and mass transit policies (Aumnad 2010)
Singapore: managing motorization in sustainable transport planning (Han 2010)
Technology transfer and diffusion
Poor intellectual property rights and patent

protection may limit policy transferability in
developing countries
Japan (Branstetter et al. 2006)

Australia: Climate change report under UNFCCC (Government of Australia 2010)
Financial policies: greenhouse

gas emissions trading; Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) and
Adaptation Fund; amended tariffs
and taxes or elimination of fossil fuel
subsidies; partnerships
Differing tax regimes and attitudes on

subsidies, plus political constraints,
may limit transferability
China: CDM a proactive and sustainable approach (World Bank 2004);

CDM a value-added approach (World Bank 2011)
Japan: Tokyos Cap and Trade Program (Nishida and Hua 2011)
Provide incentives for private sector

action: feed-in tariffs; private-public
partnership
Political views on the role of the private

sector may limit transferability in some
countries
Feed-in tariffs have been adopted in Australia, China, Japan, India, Indonesia,
Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand (IEA/OECD/World
Bank 2010; ADB 2009c)
Adaptation policy: integrate climate

change adaptation and disaster
management; mainstreaming in
development planning; mandatory
climate proofing of infrastructure
Generally transferable, although difficult

to implement, due to poor cross-sectoral
coordination
Samoa: Coastal Infrastructure Management (World Bank 2009)

Tonga: Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation National Action Plan
(Hay 2009)
Land use and forestry management
Generally transferable; major

international interest in REDD+; needs
local support
Indonesia: deforestation agreement with Norway (ADB 2010)

China: reforestation programmes (Zhang et al. 2010; SDPC 2000)
Australia: West Arnhem land fire abatement (NAILSMA 2011; FAO 2010)
Payment for ecosystem services

(PES)
Emerging experience suggests that the

concept is transferable but would require
good governance, including good liaison
at various levels between stakeholders
and users which is a strong prerequisite
for successful establishment of PES
Viet Nam: payment for forest environmental services (PFES) in Lam Dong
Province (Winrock International 2011; George et al. 2009); REDD+, transparent,
equitable and accountable benefit distribution system (UN-REDD 2011)
Potential and limitations of PES as a means of managing watershed services in
mainland South East Asia (George et al. 2009)
Ensure that benefits from genetic

biodiversity exploitation accrue to
traditional stewards of habitats
The potential impacts of the Nagoya

Protocol on ABS may not be known
yet but it is considered an important
agreement that will rectify the issues of
equity associated with the commercial
use of genetic resources and the
associated traditional knowledge
ASEAN: access and benefit sharing of genetic resources in South East Asian
countries (ACB 2011 pp.724)
Improve protected area

management and minimize land use
change, especially deforestation
While these policies can be easily

transferred, effective management is
harder to transfer than declaration of
protected areas
South East Asia: protected areas and development in the Lower Mekong (ICEM
2003)
East Asia: the CBD Programme of Work on Protected Areas and the East Asian
Regional Action Plan (IUCN-WCPA 2011)
Indonesia: transboundary haze management (ADB 2008b)
Apply adaptive management

and integrated water resources
management (IWRM)
Transferability depends on institutions

in place and strong political will
Central Asia: IWRM management in Fergana Valley (IWMI 2008)
Promote community-based
management for better water
allocation
Inclusive water management

institutions; bureaucratic/political
support for public participation in water
sector are needed
India: Andhra Pradesh (Gupta 2010; Narain 2003; Ballabh 2002; Mollinga 2001;
Parthasarathy 2000; Shashidharan 2000)
Encourage rainwater harvesting/

storm water management for
increased and improved water
storage
Depends on political will to address

human basic needs for water as a
priority
Sri Lanka (Government of Sri Lanka 2007)

Australia (Meinzen 2009)
States of India (Rainwater Harvesting Organization 2011)
Support construction of farm dams

and renovating existing dams for
increased and improved water
storage
Access to innovative technologies, water

availability, flexible storage system, and
an appropriate financing mechanism
Uzbekistan: rehabilitation of existing reservoirs in Central Asia (Box 10.10)

Cambodia and the Philippines (IFAD 2011)
Climate change
Biodiversity
Freshwater
282
Table 10.2 Transferability of priority policies in Asia and the Pacific continued
Freshwater continued
Utilize economic instruments and
approaches to enhance efficient
use of water
Transferability depends on economic

context in each country, users ability
and willingness to pay and institutional
set-up for payment arrangements
China: quotas and pricing reform for the Yellow River (Box 10.11)
Cambodia: Phnom Penh (ADB 2009c)
Philippines (IFAD 2011)
Incorporate ecosystem approach/

environmental flow concept to
water resources management
Coordination mechanism between line

agencies and local people is necessary
China: Yellow River basin (Box 10.1)

Republic of Korea: Han River Water Use Charge Programme (HREO 2011)
Adopt policy frameworks

promoting waste avoidance, and
reduction of the production and
use of hazardous chemicals
Transferability depends on institutional

capacity for complex management
Japan: 3Rs strategies and measures (UNEP 2011); Environmental Performance

Reviews (OECD 2010); Chemical Substance Control Law
China: Circular Economy Promotion Law (UNEP 2009c)
Establish systems and

infrastructure for product reuse
and materials recycling, and
stimulate markets for recycled
materials; include both industrial
by-products and post-consumer
waste
Transferability depends on political

willingness to promote source
separation of waste; countries with large
informal waste sectors need tailored
approaches to avoid negative social
impacts
Japan: Sound Material-Cycle Society (MOEJ 2010)

Republic of Korea: Extended Producer Responsibility System (Government of
Korea 2011); hazardous waste management (Yoon et al. 2008)
Set up safe disposal facilities for

hazardous wastes and chemicals
that cannot be recycled, either
nationally or sub-regionally, paying
special attention to the needs
and circumstances of developing
countries and countries with
economies in transition
Generally transferable, but technical and

financial support needed for developing
countries
Indonesia: collective composting in Surabaya (IGES 2008)

Japan: Kityakushu Initiative for a Clean Environment (ESCAP 2011b)
Strengthen international
collaboration, including
technology transfer and financial
support as well as information
sharing and policy transfer
Generally transferable; the potential for

South-South collaboration is significant
but may require external facilitation
Kazakhstan: pesticide disposal (ADB 2008a)
Reinforce the system to control

inappropriate export and import of
hazardous chemicals and waste
Transferability depends largely on

political will and capacity for effective
policy enforcement
China: Import/export, management and treatment of e-waste (BCRC 2010; UNEP/

SBC 2009)
Transferability depends on willingness

of government agencies to avoid a silo
mentality, as well as executive support;
decentralization often depends on
institutional capacity at local levels
Integration
Samoa, Tonga and possibly other Pacific island countries (ESCAP 2011a)
China: National Development and Reform Commission (ESCAP 2011a)
Republic of Korea: Presidential Committee on Green Growth (ESCAP 2011a)
Chemicals and waste
Governance
Policy integration and
mainstreaming; decentralization
according to principle of
subsidiarity
Transferability
Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines have recent experience
Decentralization
East Asia: sub-national own-source revenue (World Bank 2005 Chapter 6)
Strengthening incentive structures:

greening fiscal policy, supportive
fiscal incentives, reinvestment into
natural capital
Good financial management

mechanisms are generally transferable
Republic of Korea, Japan, Bhutan, Singapore, Hong Kong
Accountability and stakeholder

participation: multi-stakeholder
participation, transparency,
information disclosure and access
International approach using islands

of integrity tends to be effective in
combating corruption; information may
need to be interpreted and translated
into local languages
Singapore: institutional arrangements to combat corruption (UNDP 2005)

Indonesia: institutional arrangements to combat corruption (UNDP 2005)
National Climate Change Councils
Indonesia: National Council on Climate Change (DNPI 2011)
Nepal: Climate Change Council (Government of Nepal 2009)
National Councils for Sustainable Development
OECD countries (Japan, Australia, Republic of Korea, New Zealand): national
sustainable development strategies (OECD 2006)
Philippines: success stories (PCSD 2011)
Republic of Korea: Presidential Committee on Green Growth (ESCAP 2011a)
Cambodia: Inter-ministerial Green Growth Working Group
India: Planning Commission
283
In 2010, 16 of the worlds 21 mega-cities, more than 10 million inhabitants, reside in Asia. Samxmeg/iStock
Creating an enabling environment for effective policies

Part of the above analysis relates to the enabling and/or impeding
factors that have led to the success or otherwise of specific
policies. This section starts from the premise that policies are only
as good as their implementation. Theoretically brilliant policies
that are complex or difficult to implement are unlikely to be easily
transferable or replicable across national boundaries.
Moving from successful policies to policies plus enabling

conditions
Identifying policies that work, and those that do not, is of little
relevance unless the underpinning causal conditions and context
are understood. A growing body of policy studies identifies
the factors that allow policy change to happen (Huitema and
Meijerink 2009). There are many critiques of why policy change
in the irrigation sector in South Asia, for instance, has been slow
and tardy (Mollinga et al. 2003). Accordingly, it is useful to look
at what policies have failed to accomplish and what they have
achieved (Urs and Whittell 2009).
Filling the policy vacuum: the changing role of markets and
civil society
Finally, it is important to look at the changing configuration of
actors like the state, markets and civil society. Increasingly, there
is a policy vacuum left by the state that the market and/or civil
society may intervene to fill. For instance, a common response
to the inadequate supply of water in many cities in Asia and the
Pacific is the rising popularity of water markets the sale of safe
water by private entrepreneurs seen in cities like Chennai and
Kathmandu, amongst others. Privatization of water markets can
increase efficiency, but laws should be put in place to anticipate
and limit monopolies.
Given the challenges of balancing growth, poverty alleviation,
environmental protection and resource conservation, governance
improvements should prioritize addressing environmental
concerns at the macro-economic level, specifically focusing on
284
patterns of growth and restructuring the economy (ESCAP/ADB/

UNEP 2012; UNEP 2011). Environment remains the foundation
of sustainable development and if it is weak or compromised,
then the social and economic pillars of sustainable development
will also be undermined. By allowing co-benefits, ancillary costs
and environmental externalities to be integrated into social and
economic decision making, environmental concerns and climate
change can be mainstreamed into a sustainable development
framework. Carefully monitoring the actual outcomes of policy
decisions and making continuous adjustments, with the full input
of all stakeholders, are key elements of an adaptive management
approach. The recent efforts to promote the green economy and
green growth in the region suggest that the time is ripe to begin
this transformation.
CONCLUSIONS
The implications of failing to implement the recommended

policies or clusters of policies make a strong case for their
adoption, as improved environmental governance is necessary
to reverse environmental degradation and the unsustainable
use of natural resources. This chapter not only identifies some
recommended policies but also the changes to governance
arrangements necessary for them to be transferred across
sectoral and/or national boundaries and replicated quickly.
There is adequate experience with several of the priority policies
analysed above to justify faster replication, but the differing
governance contexts and enabling environments in a region
as diverse as Asia and the Pacific may be barriers to adoption.
Each of the suggested priority policies or policy clusters has
experienced some limitations during implementation, so these
challenges also need to be better understood, and additional
basic research needs to be undertaken before specific
recommendations can be made on the transfer of policies to
new jurisdictions. Nevertheless, there is considerable scope for
faster uptake of best-practice policies and it is hoped that this
chapter will have drawn the attention of the regions decision
makers to that potential.
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C H A P T E R
Nikada/iStock
Europe
11
Coordinating lead authors: Nicolai Dronin and Ruben Mnatsakanian

Lead authors: Thomas Bernauer, Sophie Cond, Karine Danielyan, Lisa Emberson,
Anastasia Idrisova, Olena Maslyukivska, Nora Mzavanadze and Alexander Orlov
Contributing authors: Olga Chkanikova (GEO Fellow), Joyeeta Gupta, Naira Harutyunyan,
Lawrence Hislop, Pavlos Kassomenos, Jerome Simpson and sa Swartling
Principal scientific reviewer: Maria Siwek
Chapter coordinator: Ron Witt
Expert contributions: European Environment Agency staff and Mirjam Schomaker
Main Messages
Europe has strong environmental governance
structures and mechanisms in place. In particular,
the European Union (EU) has been implementing
robust environmental policies over the last four
decades. Regular monitoring, reporting and
assessment required by legislation is an integral
part of EU environmental governance, helping to
inform policy makers whether policies are effective,
and to identify emerging issues. This concept
has already or is being emulated in neighbouring
countries and, although to a lesser extent, through
the pan-European Environment for Europe ministerial
process that was initiated in 1991. Moreover, since
the 2002 Earth Summit in Johannesburg, the EUs
agenda has been increasingly oriented to external
multilateral policies.
Both EU and non-EU European countries are also
well on track to meet their own Kyoto targets.
European countries are implementing climaterelated policies ranging from carbon taxes to
emissions trading schemes, stimulating renewable
energy systems and local voluntary efforts by
municipalities. More recently, climate change
adaptation strategies are being developed. Largescale reductions in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions can only be achieved through a tightly
coordinated combination of different policies
targeting different economic sectors and sources of
emissions. The EU, with some of its neighbouring
countries, is also a major donor to various global
efforts to combat climate change.
290
290

Across most of Europe, many aspects of air quality

have improved in recent decades, although problems
still remain, particularly related to urban air quality,
human health and ecosystem degradation. The
pan-European scientific monitoring network of
the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air
Pollution has been pivotal in building credibility,
shaping policies and monitoring air quality trends. A
variety of policies, often mutually enforcing, are being
applied at regional, national and local scales. Tools
cover both obligatory and voluntary implementation
mechanisms, and many are being replicated
elsewhere in the world, or have the potential to be.
Freshwater policies have been implemented
successfully through a mix of policy instruments,
often directed through strong umbrella legislation,
but challenges such as overuse of water and
water pollution persist in parts of Europe. The
transboundary nature of most European rivers calls
for close international cooperation, and integrated
water resources management is increasingly the
guiding mechanism for implementation. River basin
management plans have shown potential for transfer
and use throughout the region, water pollution from
non-point sources has been effectively reduced
through broad clusters of policies that complement
each other, and water metering and water pricing
have stimulated more responsible use of water.
Prevention, reuse and recycling of municipal
wastes are among the most regulated activities in
the region. Comprehensive legislation supported

by monitoring networks is helping to ensure
compliance with regulations, but waste volumes
continue to grow. In Eastern Europe, a legacy of
industrial wastes from the socialist period still
poses ecological problems. Policy focus is shifting
towards producers responsibility by encouraging
innovative approaches such as ecodesign, new
business models and changing life styles. The EU
legislation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation
and Restriction of Chemical substances (REACH),
which replaces a patchwork of previous directives
and regulations, looks promising for the regulation of
chemicals in coming years.
The European region is at the forefront of
multinational biodiversity conservation efforts.
Networks of protected areas have been successfully
established through Natura 2000 and comparable
efforts outside the EU, also stimulating an improved
knowledge base for preserving and monitoring
biodiversity. However, due to landscape, ecosystem
and habitat degradation both within and outside
protected areas, the overall conservation status
of habitats and species is showing no sign of
improvement. Through national initiatives for
sustainable forest management and payments
for ecosystem services, the challenges of
biodiversity conservation, climate change and
protection of freshwater resources are being
addressed in an integrated way, and are already
showing positive results.
Europe
Europe
291
291
INTRODUCTION
The pan-European region is very diverse, with its 37 different

national languages spoken in the 50 European countries
(Table 11.1) (Nations Online 2011) and its range of socioeconomic and political systems, as well as in its varied physical
environment and means of environmental governance. Europes
land area of 23 million km2 (GEO Data Portal 2011; FAO 2010)
is characterized by a great variety of (agri)cultural landscapes,
urban agglomerations, extensive coastal zones, forests and
undisturbed pristine areas. Of the nearly 833 million Europeans,
about half live in Western Europe, while some 72 per cent of
the entire regions population resides in urban areas (GEO Data
Portal 2011; UNDESA 2010).
Conversion to and intensification of agriculture along with increasing
demand for greater mobility and urban space have transformed a
majority of European landscapes over the past 100 years, causing
fragmentation and loss of natural and semi-natural habitats with
an associated decline in biodiversity (Chapters 1, 3, 5 and 7)
(EEA 2010h; COE 2000). However, exposure of Europes
population to multiple air, water and chemical pollutants has
generally declined, and both the European Union (EU) and most
non-EU European countries are on track to meet their Kyoto

targets (Chapters 1, 2, 4, 6 and 7) (EEA 2010h).
Indeed, considerable progress has been made in meeting
environmental targets, with the situation improving in many
areas. Nonetheless, concerns about long-term threats to the
environment and human health persist, the latter especially
for Europes large urban population (EEA 2010h). Despite
some successes in decoupling environmental pressures
from economic growth, Europes environmental footprint
remains disproportionately high. This is due to the continued
unsustainable use of natural resources both within and outside
the region to satisfy the high production and consumption level
of its inhabitants (Chapters 17) (EEA 2010h).
These trends are increasingly linked and complex, and require
an integrated policy approach for which strong governance
mechanisms need to be in place. Given that Central and
Western Europe in particular have a dense network of political
boundaries, a regional focus to tackle environmental issues
is necessary. A major attribute of the pan-European region is
its economic and political interconnectedness, combined with
Table 11.1 Country groupings used in various environment-related reporting and policy initiatives in Europe
UNEP GEO-5 country groups
EEA and EU country groups
EEA member countries (EEA-32*)
Sub-regions
European Free
Trade Association
(EFTA) countries
European Union
member countries
(EU-27)
Countries
Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland
Sub-regions
Countries
Western Europe
Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland,

France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel,
Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco,
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
Central Europe
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,

Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Turkey
Eastern Europe
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Republic of

Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine
EU-15
Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, United
Kingdom
EU-12
Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia, Slovenia
EU candidate countries
Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,

Turkey*
EU potential candidate
countries
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro,

Serbia
Partner countries
of the EU European
Neighbourhood Policy
Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt,

Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Republic of
Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory,
Syria, Tunisia, Ukraine
Pan-European Environment for Europe (EfE) process of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
Member countries include all those listed above in the GEO-5 country groups (excluding Holy See) plus Canada, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
United States of America, Uzbekistan
* Turkey is already an EEA member country (and thus part of EEA-32).
Source: UNECE 2012; EEA 2010h; UNEP 2007b
292
well-established and strong formal governance mechanisms and

structures to address environmental issues at (sub-)regional
level. This has made Europe a leader in transboundary as well
as global environmental decision-making. In particular, the
EU has more than four decades of experience in developing
environmental policies: the first Environmental Action Programme
(EAP) was adopted in 1972 while the sixth ends in mid-2012. EU
legislation is implemented at a national level within EU Member
States, with forceful implementation control by EU institutions.
The legislation is also used in non-member European states on a
case-by-case and voluntary basis.
Policy approaches have evolved over time, using policies and
single-issue instruments in the 1970s and 1980s, followed by
policy integration and raising public awareness in the 1980s and
1990s and thereafter (EEA 2010h; Hey 2004). An integral part of
EU environmental governance is the regular monitoring, reporting
and assessment required by EU legislation; these activities
help to inform policy makers about effectiveness and also help
to identify emerging issues. Since the early 2000s, European
environmental policy has increasingly been guided by the fact
that well-designed, coherent policies that integrate different
sectoral policy domains can provide greater benefits at lower
costs than several single policies. As a result, Europes natural
resources are used with increasing efficiency (EEA 2010h).
This concept is already being emulated in EU neighbouring
countries and in the pan-European Environment for Europe
ministerial process that was initiated in 1991. In September
2011, for example, the Seventh pan-European Environment
for Europe Ministerial Conference focused on the sustainable
management of water and water-related ecosystems and on
greening the economy including mainstreaming the environment
into economic development.
The countries of Eastern Europe also have well-developed
formal environmental policies and regulations, although the
implementation and enforcement of these has often tended
to lag. In the early 1990s, following the collapse of industry in
Eastern Europe, environmental pressures dropped substantially
in many countries, giving the public and authorities a false
sense of security. The focus of attention shifted towards
more urgent needs related to economic restructuring and
development, with an inclination to make the economic
transition easier by reducing environmental regulation. At first
this strategy worked, but later, when countries regained their
economic strength, it began to backfire.
A new wave of improved environmental legislation and policies
can now be expected in the non-EU part of Europe, the current
global financial crisis notwithstanding. Promising policies
include, for example, integrated river basin management and
cross-boundary biodiversity conservation. Another example
is the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the Commonwealth
of Independent States (IPA CIS), with its consultative and
informative role. It has a Permanent Commission on Agricultural
Policy, Natural Resources and Ecology, which advises the
The Salzach River flowing through Salzburg, Austria, where nature

protection, agriculture, energy production and recreational activities are
balanced through integrated river basin management. Dave Long/iStock
parliaments of CIS countries and suggests sample legislation

on environmental issues. Practically all aspects of modern
environmental policy are covered, ranging from environmental
security, environmental insurance and strategic environmental
assessments to environmental monitoring, energy conservation
and environmental education (IPA CIS 2011).
POLICY APPRAISAL
For this chapter, five key challenges/priority issues were

identified for Europe, in no particular order, during a GEO
regional consultation held in September 2010:
climate change;
air quality;
freshwater;
chemicals and waste; and
biodiversity.
At the GEO Regional Consultation, five international
environmental goals related to the key challenges were
identified, and regional-level goals were added later where
applicable. The group then selected promising policies that
have already shown some degree of success in helping to speed
up meeting the globally and regionally agreed environmental
goals (Table 11.2).
Europe
293
Table 11.2 Selected themes, goals and policy options and examples of success
Themes and international
goals
Climate change
Articles 2 and 4.8
Air quality
Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992)
Chapter 9 Paragraph 27
Policy cluster/approach
Combating climate change by
creating and using markets
Adapting to climate change by

working with the public and
private sectors, and through
command-and-control
regulation
Reducing emission levels

through command-andcontrol regulations and by
using markets
Integrated air quality
management with the
public and private sectors,
command-and-control
regulations, using markets,
creating awareness and
voluntary actions
Freshwater
Chemicals and waste

Integrated water management

through command-andcontrol regulations, with the
public and private sectors and
by using markets
Reducing the amount of waste

produced through commandand-control regulations and
by using markets
Comprehensive legislation on
chemicals through commandand control-regulations
Biodiversity
Diversity (CBD 1992) Articles
8, 10 and 11
294
Expanding and strengthening

ecological networks through
legislation and action plans
Integrated management of
forest resources and farm
land with high nature value
through voluntary action
and payment for ecosystem
services measures, working
with both the public and
private sector
Regional goals/targets
Policy options
Examples of success
EU 20-20-20
Reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions
to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020
(30% if other industrialized countries
make similar commitments and
developing countries contribute
adequately)
Lower EU energy consumption by
20% compared with projected levels
for 2020, through increased energy
efficiency
Meet 20% of EU energy needs from
renewable sources by 2020 (EC
2009a)
Have EU national adaptation
strategies in place by 2015
(ECouncil 2007)
EU Emissions Trading
System
Pledges for post-2012

period (Box 11.1)
Subsidies for renewable

energy through feed-intariffs
German REFIT scheme

(Box 11.2)
Natural hazard insurance

schemes; national
adaptation strategies
Transferring innovative
climate insurance
(Box 11.3)
EU by 2020
Reduce, compared to 2000:
number of years of life lost due to
particulate matter by 47%:
number of premature deaths due to
ground-level ozone by at least 10%
forest area affected by ozone by 15%
forest area affected by acidification
by 74%
freshwater area affected by
acidification by 39%
area affected by eutrophication
by 43%
(EC 2005)
EU fuel and vehicle

standards
Adopting European fuel

standards (Figures 11.4
and 11.5)
SO2 reduction
Proof of sulphur dioxide

(SO2) policy benefits
(Figure 11.6)
Local air quality

management
Stockholms air quality

management in lowemission zone (Box 11.4)
EU overall goal
Get all water, including lakes, rivers,
streams and groundwater aquifers,
into a healthy state by 2015 (ECouncil
2000)
By end 2012
Specific targets for 2020 adopted in
the EU 2012 Blueprint to Safeguard
Europes Water Resources (EC 2011a)
River basin management

plans
Tisza River Basin

Management Plan (Box
11.5)
Policy mixes to reduce

non-point sources of
water pollution
Denmarks accounting
system for nitrogen use
in agriculture (Box 11.6)
Water metering and

pricing
Water metering in
Armenia (Box 11.7)
Recycle 50% of annual municipal

waste and 70% of annual construction
waste in the EU by 2020
By 31 May 2013: companies must
register chemical phase-in substances
manufactured or imported in the EU of
100 tonnes or more per year
By 31 May 2018: companies must
register chemical phase-in substances
manufactured or imported in the EU of
1 tonne or more per year
(ETC/SCP 2010)
Waste prevention
Extended producer
responsibility (Box 11.8)
Preparing for reuse

Preparing for recycling
Trends in municipal
waste processing in the
EU (Figure 11.12)
Registration, Evaluation,
Authorisation and
Restriction of Chemical
substances (REACH)
Too early to report on

success
EU by 2020
At least 15% of degraded ecosystems
restored
Forest management plans in place for
all publicly owned forests and forest
holdings above a certain size that
receive EU Rural Development Policy
funding (EC 2011c)
Transboundary EU
Natura 2000 network
and national non-EU
country networks
National ecological
network of Ukraine (Box
11.9)
Mechanisms for payment

for ecosystem services
Conserving farmland
with a high nature value
in Portugal (Box 11.10)
Pan-European Forest
Europe process
The Introduction to GEO-5 explains the methodology applied in

this appraisal in more detail. It is acknowledged that:
recent, innovative policies do not have a long enough
track record to be selected for this appraisal, though some
promising emerging policies are included in the conclusions
at the end of this chapter;
even where actual evidence of policy effectiveness does exist,
such environmental improvements cannot usually be directly
linked to one single policy or cluster of policies because of
impacts from other sectoral policies, economic developments
or political restructuring; and
there are certainly other priority issues in parts of the region
such as the marine and coastal areas surrounding large
parts of Europe, a new energy mix, land-use change and
land degradation, or developments in Europes mountainous
areas but these were not among the maximum of five key
challenges/priority issues selected for this analysis by the
GEO regional consultation.
Climate change
In terms of the total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,

European countries are leading the global climate change
mitigation effort by a wide margin. Other large advanced
economies have either not ratified the Kyoto Protocol (United
States), are failing to meet their Kyoto targets (Canada) or are
allowed to increase their emissions (Australia). Japan, with its
6 per cent reduction target, is the main exception. Figure 11.1
presents current emission data and trends for the main sectors
in the EU-27, clearly illustrating the dominant role of energy
(Chapters 1, 2 and 3).
Figure 11.1 Sectoral trends and projections for

EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions, 19902020
CO2 -equivalent, million tonnes
2 000
The EU-15 is well on track to meet its Kyoto target; indeed, overcompliance may even be achieved when the Clean Development
Mechanism, Joint Implementation mechanism, and carbon
removals such as forestry activities, are factored in (EEA 2010j).
None of the Central and Eastern European countries have faced
any problems in meeting their Kyoto Protocol obligations as their
targets were set before the fall in emissions associated with the
collapse of the Soviet bloc. In addition, regional emission targets
for the post-2012 period have been set (Box 11.1).
Box 11.1 Greenhouse gas reduction pledges for

the post-2012 period
In March 2007, the EU-27 unilaterally committed itself
to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least
20 per cent by 2020 compared to 1990, and to increase
this commitment to 30 per cent if other industrialized
countries commit to comparable emission reductions and
developing countries contribute adequately according to
their capabilities. These commitments were renewed by the
EU-27 in the Copenhagen Accord in 2009. Similar pledges
have been made by other advanced European economies,
notably Iceland, Monaco, Norway and Switzerland. The EU
has further declared that it will seek to achieve reductions
of the order of 8095 per cent by 2050 (EEA 2010j). In the
Copenhagen Accord, the Russian Federation pledged to
reduce its emissions by 1525 per cent by 2020 and 50 per
cent by 2050 compared to 1990, and Ukraine by 20 and
50 per cent respectively. Belarus, Croatia, the Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova and Montenegro
have also formally pledged to reduce their emissions. The
(UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties in Cancn in December
2010 formally put those pledges into UN documentation,
and the UNFCCC Secretariat will monitor progress (CG 2011).
Energy industries
1 800
1 600
1 400
1 200
Energy use (direct combustion)
1 000
Transport
800
600
400
200
Agriculture
Industrial processes
0
1990
Solvents
1995
2000
Waste
2005
2010
2015
2020
Note: Greenhouse gas emission projections are shown as dashed lines

under existing policy measures and black dotted lines with additional measures.
Source: EEA 2011b
A recent report by the EU calls for the total elimination of fossil-fuelpowered cars in cities by the year 2050. Robert Bremec/iStock
Europe
295
sectors and sources of emissions. Only then can efficient

synergies be achieved.
In 2009, the EU formally adopted its climate and energy package,
an integrated approach with binding legislation to implement the
EUs three main climate and energy targets:
reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions to 20 per cent below
1990 levels by 2020;
reduce EU energy consumption by 20 per cent compared with
projected levels by 2020 through increased energy efficiency;
and
meet 20 per cent of EU energy needs from renewable sources,
including biofuels, by 2020 (EC 2009a).
These commitments together have been labelled the 20-20-20
targets, which are being implemented through an array of
policies ranging from carbon taxes and emissions trading
schemes to local voluntary efforts by municipalities (EC 2009b).
Two of the most promising policies are discussed below.
European Emissions Trading System
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) was launched in
2005 as a cornerstone of EU climate policy and the key tool for
reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective
manner. It is the first and largest international scheme for trading
emission allowances, and is open to non-EU countries on the
condition that they meet the strict standards of the EU ETS.
The building sector will be a key area of opportunity in the EUs

ambitious climate and energy package. George Clerk/iStock
Large-scale reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can only be

achieved, however, through a tightly coordinated and coherent
combination of different policies targeting different economic
The EU ETS covers about 40 per cent of EU greenhouse gas

emissions. For 2009, the EU carbon trading market was estimated
to be worth nearly US$118.5 billion per year, compared to a
Figure 11.2 EU Emissions Trading System cap, 20052050

CO2-equivalent, million tonnes
2 500
Scope changes
Linear reduction factor
2 000
1 500
-71% compared to 2005
1 000
500
0
2005
2010
2015
EU ETS cap phase 1 and phase 2
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EU ETS cap phase 3 (which ends in 2020) and beyond, based on an annual linear reduction
Source: EEA 2011b
296
global carbon credit market worth an estimated US$143.75

billion. In 2009, the volume of emissions covered by the system
reached 6.33 billion tonnes compared to 41 million tonnes
covered by the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) (Kossoy and
Ambrosi 2010).
Falling prices of carbon credits in the first (20052007) and
second (20082013) phases of the EU ETS, although caused by
different factors, demonstrate the crucial requirements of the
supply of accurate, reliable and constantly updated figures on
energy consumption and emissions, verified by strict monitoring
(Morris and Worthington 2010; Ellerman 2008). The Third Trading
Period (from 1 January 2013) will implement several important
changes such as inclusion of airline emissions, increased
auctioning of allowances, and an ambitious EU-wide cap instead
of national caps. The EU ETS cap will decrease continuously from
2013 onwards using a linear reduction factor (Figure 11.2).
The EU ETS is an attractive option for European countries outside
the EU. Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway are already covered
by it through their membership of the European Economic Area
Agreement, while Switzerland will be the first non-EU country
whose national emissions trading system is linked to the EU
ETS (Bart 2007; Ellerman and Buchner 2007) and Australia is
exploring this possibility as well (Planet Arc 2011).
Feed-in tariffs for renewable energy systems
Feed-in tariff schemes were elaborated as the main support
mechanism for renewable energy systems. Its goal goes far
beyond reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions only; it also
takes issues such as energy security, independence from
conventional fuel price volatility or decentralization of energy

into account (Blanco and Rodrigues 2008).
The policy offers long-term contracts to renewable energy
producers, typically based on the cost of generation of each
technology with two basic pricing models: a market-independent
fixed price, applied by Germanys Renewable Energy Source Act
(EEG 2009), and a market-dependent premium price model,
used, for example, by Spain (Mendona et al. 2009; Klessmann
et al. 2008). The German Renewable Energy Feed-in-Tariff (REFIT)
scheme, launched as early as 1991, is a successful example
(Box 11.3). Spain is another positive example, as the country
has established a dynamic, export-oriented and job-creating
renewable energy sector even if it has not succeeded in other
areas of climate policy (Sills and Roca 2010; Bechberger 2009;
del Rio Gonzalez 2008). About two-thirds of EU Member States
have now built up renewable energy capacity using feed-in tariffs
(Figure 11.3) (Weidner and Mez 2008; Busch 2003).
At least 17 developing countries and emerging economies,
including Brazil, China, India, Kenya, Nicaragua, South Africa
and the Republic of Tanzania, have feed-in tariff schemes in
place, most of which have been implemented within the last
five years through, among others, the Global Energy Transfer
Feed-in Tariff for Developing Countries (GET FIT) programme
(Box 11.2) (REN21 2010). About 60 per cent of projects
that have been registered under the Clean Development
Mechanism or are in the pipeline for 2012 are for renewable
energy, showing that development of this has become the
most attractive climate policy option for developing countries
(UNFCCC 2011; UNEP Risoe Centre 2010).
Figure 11.3 Electricity capacity in the EU-27 from biomass, on-shore wind and photovoltaic sources, 20052010
Installed capacity, gigawatts
90
70
Biomass
Feed-in biomass
Onshore wind
Feed-in onshore wind
60
Photovoltaic
Feed-in photovoltaic
80
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Ragwitz et al. 2012
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297
Box 11.2 The German Renewable Energy Feed-in

Tariff scheme
Between 2000 and 2010 under the REFIT scheme, the
share of electricity in Germany produced from renewable
sources increased from 6.3 to about 17 per cent. In
2010, investments in Germanys renewable energy sector
amounted to about US$3.5 billion and employed around
370000 people (Jnicke 2011). The equivalent of 5.8 per
cent of Germanys CO2 emissions in 2009 was thus avoided
(AGEE-Stat 2010). The Deutsche Bank Climate Change
Advisors established the Global Energy Transfer Feed-in
Tariff for Developing Countries (GET FIT) programme, which
envisages a REFIT premium for individual producers to
be paid by both the national government and the GET FIT
fund. The concept of a global fund similar to the GET FIT
has already found its way into the footnotes of the climate
negotiations in the context of the Nationally Appropriate
Mitigation Action (NAMA) programme (UNFCCC 2009).
Climate adaptation policies

When floods caused serious human and material damage in
Central Europe in the summer of 2002, the European Commission
(EC) reacted immediately by proposing the use of existing funds
in a flexible way to respond to the urgent needs of the people
affected. By mid-November 2002, an EU Solidarity Fund (EUSF)
had been launched to finance short-term responses such as
reconstruction of damaged or destroyed infrastructure, and
Box 11.3 Transferring innovative climate insurance

schemes
Many European insurance companies such as Swiss Re,
AXA, Allianz, Munich Re, MicroInsure and Zurich have
helped pioneer index-based weather risk transfer
instruments in low-income countries. For example, Swiss Re
started its index-based weather insurance scheme in India
in collaboration with a micro-finance institution and
a local insurer in 2004, since when a total of 350000
policies have been sold to smallholder farmers in India.
Similar solutions have been successfully deployed
elsewhere: in 2007, Swiss Re designed and implemented
index-based weather risk transfer instruments for three
village clusters in Sauri (Kenya), Tiby (Mali) and Koraro
(Ethiopia), protecting 150000 farmers against drought risk.
The innovation is that insurance pay-outs are based on the
performance of the weather index rather than on actual
damage incurred or losses suffered. One of the advantages
is that pay-outs can be calculated and disbursed quickly
and automatically without the need for households to file
a claim formally (Warner and Spiegel 2009).
298
to secure protective infrastructure such as dams and dykes.

As the EUSF is restricted to the uninsured sectors of public
infrastructure, it should be supplemented with a unified,
innovative insurance system, being developed across Europe,
which has the power to transfer risks from the local level to
national and even global insurance markets through primary
insurance and re-insurance (Box 11.3) (EC 2004).
Another tool to assist in preparing for the impacts of climate
change is the 2007 EU Floods Directive, under which draft
national flood risk maps had to be submitted in 2011, with
final versions to be ready by 2013 and final adaptation plans
by 2015 (ECouncil 2007). More recently, the EU White Paper on
Adaptation to Climate Change (EC 2009b) has moved beyond
short-term disaster responses, outlining key steps towards
a European framework for long-term adaptation measures
and policies to increase resilience, to be implemented at
national and local levels. Top-down strategies are envisaged
for mainstreaming adaptation into sectoral policies, focusing
on sectors such as land-use planning, agriculture, water
management and biodiversity/nature conservation. Bottom-up
activities focus on building adaptive capacity and implementing
action at municipal level (EEA 2010h). In addition, a new EU
Clearinghouse on climate change impacts, vulnerability and
adaptation was put in place with the first stage of the strategy to
run until 2012 (EC 2010c).
Air quality
Although many aspects of air quality across Europe have

improved in recent decades due to emission reductions from
industry and transport (Chapter 2), air pollution continues
to pose a threat to human health, especially in urban areas
(EEA 2010h). For example, exposure to fine particulate matter
(PM2.5) was estimated to have caused 5 million lost life years in
2005 in the EEA-32 (EEA 2010h). Similarly, other air pollutants
continue to cause environmental damage to ecosystems, with
10 per cent of the EEA-32 natural ecosystem area still subject
to acidifying pollutant deposition caused by sulphur dioxide
(SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) (EEA 2010h), and more than
40 per cent of sensitive terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
still subject to eutrophying atmospheric nitrogen deposition in
the form of nitrogen oxides and ammonia (NH3) (EEA 2010h).
Despite declining peak ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations,
background levels are steadily rising, also leading to ecosystem
damage (UNECE 2010).
The Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution
(CLRTAP) of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
(UNECE) has been pivotal in providing the scientific evidence
that has underpinned efforts to shape air quality policy.
CLRTAPs flagship 1999 Gothenburg Protocol (UNECE 1999)
promotes an integrated multi-pollutant, multi-effect approach
to optimize efforts to improve air quality across Europe. It is
comparable to the 2001 EU National Emission Ceilings Directive,
which establishes legally binding pollutant-specific emission
ceilings for nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic
compounds, sulphur dioxide and ammonia for the EU-27. The
2008 Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Directive merges much of the
existing air quality legislation to develop long-term, strategic
and integrated policy advice.
Such European approaches have been instrumental in
providing the impetus for the development of a suite of air
quality policies through the establishment of binding emission
and air quality standards. Three outstanding environmental
success stories are described here: vehicle emissions and fuel
standards, the EU Industrial Emissions Directive and local air
quality management policies.
European vehicle emission and fuel standards
Historically, road transport has contributed substantially to
atmospheric pollution by producing emissions of lead (Pb),
nitrogen oxides and particulate matter (Chapter 2). Reduction of
these emissions has been achieved through the establishment
of EU directives controlling both fuel and vehicle emissions,
with fuel policy focused on banning lead and limiting sulphur
content (ECouncil 1999, 1998). European Vehicle Emission
Standards (Euro standards) control exhaust emissions of
nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds and
total hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and particulate matter
from new vehicles sold within the EU. Since the establishment
of the Euro 1 standards in 1992, more stringent ones have been
introduced, tightening controls on different pollutants, vehicle
categories, weights and classes, engine volumes and fuel types;
Euro 5 standards have been in force since 2007. Figure 11.4
shows the vehicle stock allocated to the Euro standards that
have been established to date. Figure 11.5 shows the timeline
for the introduction of increasingly stringent Euro standards
in the EU and their transferability through the subsequent
Figure 11.4 Passenger cars and light-duty trucks

meeting Euro standards
% of fleet
100
80
60
40
20
1995 2009
Passenger
cars, petrol
1995 2009
Passenger
cars, diesel
Pre-Euro
Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 3
Euro 4
Euro 5
1995 2009
Light-duty
trucks, petrol
1995 2009
Light-duty
trucks, diesel
Source: EEA 2010b
adoption of these standards in many Asian countries. They have

also been adopted in parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe
(PCFV 2011b; OECD 2007b).
Harmful air pollutants can be transported across countries, continents and even oceans, affecting air quality far from the original source.
Jarek Szymanski/iStock
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299
Figure 11.5 Euro-based standards and their adoption in Asia, 19952018

Euro 1
Euro 2
Euro 4
Euro 3
Euro 5
Euro 6
European Union
Hong Kong, China
Republic of Korea
China1,3
Being
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Singapore1
2
Singapore
India3
India4
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Viet Nam
Indonesia
Bangladesh1
Bangladesh2
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Nepal
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2018
1. Petrol only.
2. Diesel only.
3. Whole country.
4. Agra, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hydrabad, Kanpur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Pune, Sholapur, Surat. All other Indian cities are Euro 2.
Note: The level of adoption varies. If no annotation is given, Euro standards have been adopted country-wide for both petrol- and diesel- fuelled vehicles.
Source: CAI-Asia 2011
Despite a 26 per cent increase in fuel consumption across the

entire transport sector between 1990 and 2005, actual pollutant
emissions in 2005 were significantly lower than a theoretical
no-new-policy scenario assuming conventional technologies
and no introduction of Euro standards: in the EEA-32, nitrogen
oxide was 40 per cent lower than the scenario figures; carbon
monoxide 80 per cent, non-methane volatile organic compounds
68 per cent and particulate matter 60 per cent lower (EEA
2010d). Lead emissions from road transport alone decreased
by 99 per cent (EEA 2010c) and sulphur dioxide emissions by
92 per cent between 1990 and 2008 (EEA 2010e). Additional
benefits of the Euro standards include increased engine lifetime
and lower maintenance costs due to the removal of sulphur
(PCFV 2007), better fuel economy and reduced greenhouse gas
emissions (ICCT 2007).
The implementation of cleaner fuel policies involves costs related
to fuel switching, such as replacing lead with other fuel additives
and shifting to producers of low-sulphur crude oil, improving
engine technologies and upgrading refineries (PCFV 2007).
However, the benefits of lead phase-out and desulphurization
in terms of human and ecosystem health in general exceed the
costs (Blumberg et al. 2004; Lovei 1998). The EU, Japan and the
United States lead the world in desulphurization policies (PCFV
2011a) and by 2011, vehicle fuel in the European region was
lead free (PCFV 2011c).
300
The time lag in the effectiveness of vehicle emission policy

depends on the average age of the vehicle fleet and the
affordability of new vehicles. Awareness raising, product
labelling, enforcement and regular control of fuel quality, now
considered essential for vehicle policies to reach their full
potential, have ensured successful implementation of these
policies (PCFV 2007).
EU Industrial Emissions Directive
The 2010 EU Industrial Emissions Directive is designed to
consolidate seven existing EU directives that have evolved
since the early 1980s and have been instrumental in reducing
industrial sulphur dioxide emission. The new directive will
combine proven policy measures including technical emission
controls, best available techniques, fuel switching and reduced
sulphur content in liquid fuels.
Implementation of these measures has resulted in a clear
reduction in sulphur dioxide emissions across Europe over
recent decades (Figure 11.6), effectively decoupling them from
industrial activities, especially in Western Europe (EEA 2010e).
To some extent these reductions were aided by socio-political
and economic changes between 1990 and 2000 in former
socialist Eastern Europe. The reduction of total anthropogenic
sulphur dioxide emissions in the EU27 by 80 per cent between
1990 and 2009 (EEA 2010e) has led to substantial declines
Figure 11.6 European sulphur dioxide emission reductions, 19802004
19801990
19902000
20002004
Annual change in emissions, tonnes per 50x50 km grid cell

500
0
Rising emissions
-500
-1 000 -1 500 -2 000

Falling emissions
1980s: SO2 emissions fell dramatically in Western Europe (red and orange), while continuing to increase in the southeast (blue).
1990s: Emission reductions slowed in some Western European countries (yellow and green), but accelerated in Central and Eastern Europe
(red and orange), while emissions that had been rising in parts of the southeast also began to fall rapidly.
2000s: SO2 emissions began to stabilize in most of Europe (green); but began to increase (from green to blue) in the North East Altantic due
to shipping activity, and in the Balkans due to recovering industry.
Source: Vestreng et al. 2007
in acidification rates as exceedances of critical loads across

Europe have been reduced. The implementation of the measures
did, however, involve additional costs, requiring investment
from the private and public sectors. The new EU Industrial
Emissions Directive aims to reduce these costs by streamlining
and enhancing cost efficiency and effectiveness (ECouncil
2010). Many control technologies have proven transferability,
having been adopted in many Asian countries where they are of
particular relevance since 80 per cent of Asias energy demand
is met by coal-fired power. Enhanced penetration of measures
across Asia could yield further substantial improvements in
sulphur dioxide emission reductions (Klimont et al. 2009).
Local air quality management policies
Under the 2008 Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Directive, local
authorities are obliged to prepare air quality management plans
to ensure compliance with air quality standards. Many policy
measures have focused on urban transport since this sector
generates 70 per cent of air pollutants in urban areas (Chapter 1)
(EC 2007a). Perhaps the most influential of these policy
measures have been low-emission zones that limit or ban the
most polluting vehicles from entering urban areas and encourage
faster renewal of the vehicle fleet in line with vehicle emission
standards. Around 100 low-emission zones in ten European
countries have either been established or are in the process
of being established (Box 11.4) (LEZ 2011). Other measures
include congestion charging, expansion and improvement of
public transport and cycling infrastructure, car pooling and
cycle sharing systems, renewal or retrofitting of municipal
vehicle fleets, and traffic and green areas management. Air

quality management plans also require the public dissemination
of current information detailing ambient air pollution and
exceedances of air quality standards (ECouncil 2008a), with
citizens and legal entities having the right to go to court in cases
of non-compliance with standards. However, individual lawsuits
for breaches of air quality standards are rarely pursued due to
costs, time-consuming procedures and low awareness (ECouncil
2008a). Besides, many urban areas in Europe are not compliant
with current European air quality legislation (EEA 2010i). To be
really successful, local air quality management plans require
A proliferation of designated cycle ways can be seen across several

European cities. Carsten Madsen/iStock
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301
Box 11.4 Stockholms air quality management policies in a low-emission zone

Stockholms low-emission zone was launched in 1996 and
initially targeted heavy-duty vehicles entering the city centre.
Vehicles complying with Euro 1 standards were allowed to
enter freely while those more than eight years old had to
be retrofitted or issued a permit. Enforcement was carried
out by police inspections leading to an overall compliance
rate of around 90 per cent within a few years (Burman and
Johansson 2001). Actual air pollution concentrations in
2000 were down by 0.52 per cent for nitrogen oxides
and by 0.59 per cent for particulate matter compared to
the theoretical values calculated for a no-policy situation
(Burman and Johansson 2001).
Then in 2007, following a successful trial period in 2006, a
variable congestion tax was launched for vehicles entering
Stockholms city centre on weekdays during working hours.
Clean vehicles running on electricity and biofuels were exempt
from the tax. Burman and Johansson (2010) found that:
the number of trips and the distance travelled in the inner
adequate monitoring and information systems and appropriate

institutional mandates for local authorities.
Freshwater
In large parts of Europe demand for water often exceeds local

availability, a trend that is likely to be exacerbated by climate
change. In addition, both point and diffuse sources of pollution
are still significant in parts of Europe, as a result of which some
health risks remain (Chapter 4) (EEA 2010h). Europes water
challenges are driven by competing demands for water by
agriculture, industry, public water supply and tourism, and further
complicated by the transboundary nature of many European
freshwater resources. Addressing these challenges calls for strong
environmental governance structures, with a focus on coherent and
integrated efforts and regional cooperation (Chapters 1 and 16).
The EU Water Framework Directive (ECouncil 2000) and
pan-European UNECE instruments such as the Convention on
the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses (Water
Convention) provide the basis for solving major water issues
in the region. The Water Framework Directive brings the many
isolated policies that have been developed in the EU since
the mid-1970s together into one coherent legal framework for
water policy decision-making within the river basin context.
Its main goal is to protect and enhance the status of all EU
waters, including groundwater, rivers, lakes and coastal waters,
and water-dependent ecosystems, and to ensure long-term
sustainable use of water resources. The Water Convention offers
a common platform for both EU and non-EU European countries
to exchange and transfer knowledge and create common
understanding, and is a useful tool for assisting in implementing
EU water legislation by non-EU countries.
302
city decreased in 2006 by 100000 per day and 8.5 per cent
respectively;
the share of clean vehicles in the private fleet increased
from 5 per cent in 2006 to 14 per cent in 2008;
average pollutant concentrations decreased in the inner city
by 10 per cent for nitrogen oxides, 15 per cent for carbon
monoxide and 1520 per cent for particulate matter.
Both air quality management policies were found to be
even more effective if supported by additional measures
such as green area networks, clean fuels, clean vehicles,
extension of public transport and promotion of cycling and
walking. Nonetheless, the congestion tax has been shown
to generate a net social benefit of around US$95 million
(70 million) per year in the form of shorter and more
reliable travel times, reduced greenhouse gas emissions,
health and environmental benefits, greater traffic safety,
increased public transport and higher government revenue
(Eliasson 2009).
Three specific policy instruments with some history of effective

implementation have been selected for further appraisal:
integrated management of transboundary river basins; policy
mixes to address non-point sources of pollution; and water
metering and volume-based pricing.
Integrated management of transboundary river basins
Water does not stop at administrative or political boundaries,
making regional cooperation crucial between countries that
share the natural geographical and hydrological unit of a
river basin. The overarching approach of integrated water
resources management has proven to be an effective policy for
valuing, managing and protecting water-related ecosystems
(UNECE 2011a). The development of river basin management
plans is one of the main tools for implementing the Water
Framework Directive, which focuses on pollution prevention
and control, greater public participation in water management,
and economic analysis of water use. The plans require the
integration of industrial, agricultural and rural development,
nature conservation and forestry programmes at the river basin
scale and, in many cases, transboundary collaboration and
coordination through river basin commissions. Progress in
cooperation in the region is varied, however.
The first river basin commission in Europe the International
Commission for the Protection of the Rhine celebrated its 60th
anniversary in 2010, and has registered numerous successes
over the years. Similar commissions have been established
since for many European rivers, gradually moving eastwards
despite the fact that in non-EU countries a comprehensive
and strong legal basis for cooperation is often still lacking
(UNECE 2011b). As many water bodies are shared by EU and
non-EU nations, countries are encouraged to jointly prepare river

basin management plans: the Tisza River Basin Management
Plan provides a recent example of such cooperation across EU
borders (Box 11.5).
number of stakeholders who need to be involved (Figure 11. 7)

(Sendzimir et al. 2008).
A mix of policies to address diffuse sources of water pollution
Eutrophication, predominantly caused by sewage discharges
and agricultural run-off, is a major threat to European freshwater
resources. Policies to reduce the flow of nutrients from point
sources are well known and have proved to be successful,
provided that sufficient funding is allocated to construct
and manage water treatment systems. Tackling the problem
of diffuse sources of freshwater pollution is much more
challenging (DEFRA 2002).
By sharing the benefits and responsibility of sustainably comanaged water resources, economic development is fostered,
establishing a connection between economic activities and the
environment. River basin management plans also encourage
public participation in working and expert groups. However, this
approach still faces serious limitations due to the magnitude and
complexity of the problems it seeks to address and the significant
Box 11.5 Integrated Tisza River Basin Management Plan

The Tisza River, which flows through parts of Hungary, Romania,
the Republic of Serbia, the Slovak Republic and Ukraine, is the
largest tributary of the Danube. The main pressures threatening
the region are pollution from nutrient, organic and hazardous
substances and both floods and droughts. The countries
of the Tisza Basin have prepared an integrated river basin
management plan, formally adopted in April 2011, in which
the steps and long-term action needed to reach the required

improved water status for the basin by 2015 are outlined. The
plan attempts to deal with the complex links between different,
potentially or actually conflicting, objectives and actors in
integrated management (Figure 10.7). Experience gained in
developing the plans can be transferred to other basins shared
by EU and non-EU countries (UNDP and GEF 2011).
Figure 11.7 Complex links between objectives and actors involved in managing the Tisza Basin
Landscape productivity
Profits on small
and medium farms
Landscape water
storage capacity
Soil quality
Landscape
mosaic
Biodiversity
Community
well-being
Community actors
attitude
(active/passive)
Lobbying capacity
of community
actors
Pressure for
sustainable
flood
management
Sustainable flood
management
Water
suciency in
summer
Agricultural intensity
Agricultural
technology
intensity
River-landscape
controlled flow
Water steering
ability
Water stored
in landscape
Alternative
water sources
Crop yeld on
big farms
Area for
intensive use
Climate
change
Profits on
big farms
Intensification
pressure
Lobbying
capacity of
intensive
agriculture
Floods
frequency and
intensity
Pressure for
flood protection
Crop damage by
flood
Dikes
Flood damage
to buildings and
infrastructure
Human
development in
floodplain
Flood protection
Source: Adapted from Sendzimir et al. 2008
Europe
303
There is significant experience in Europe of applying mixes of

policies to reduce diffuse nutrient run-off, including accounting
systems for the use of nitrogen in agriculture (Box 11.6), regulations
on livestock density and the use of animal manure, purchase
of nitrogen quotas, taxes on fertilizers, and compensation for
converting agricultural land into wetlands or forest (OECD 2007a).
Denmark, for example, has applied a large cluster of such mixed
policies since the late 1980s, taking their synergistic effects
into account, while avoiding disproportionate burdens on any
particular stakeholder (Petersen and Knudsen 2010; Jacobsen
2004). As a result, the application of nutrients in Denmark has
steadily decreased since the early 1990s (Figure 11.8).
Box 11.6 Nitrogen accounting in Denmark

A cornerstone in Danish policies addressing nutrient runoff is an obligatory, detailed nitrate accounting system
introduced in 1993. Under this system, a preliminary, yearly
nitrogen quota is calculated for each farm, depending on
the area of arable land, the crops planted and the soil type.
The accounting system is combined with other obligations,
such as regulations on the use of animal manure and limits
on livestock density in compliance with the EU Nitrates
Directive (91/676/EEC). To reduce administrative costs both
for public authorities and for farmers, the Danish authorities
developed software in 2005 with pre-filled nitrogen accounts
on the basis of information collected in previous years,
and further information on, for example, feed and fertilizer
wholesalers and slaughterhouses (OECD 2007a).
Water metering and volume-based pricing

Europe has relatively high water consumption due to high
agricultural and industrial demand (Chapter 4). In addition,
considerable losses often occur in the supply chain, aggravating
shortages in already water-scarce regions. In some countries up
to 40 per cent of the total amount of water transported may be
lost before it even reaches the consumer, while in others it can
be below 10 per cent (EEA 2010h). Metering, cost recovery tariffs
and proper pricing structures stimulate more responsible water
use, at the same time generating funds for the maintenance of
the supply system.
While water metering is a common policy tool in many counties
of Western Europe, Central and Eastern European countries are
still in the process of transition from a flat-rate price charged per
person to a system of volume metering. Various studies reveal
that on average, if individual metering systems are in place,
reductions of 1040 per cent can be achieved in household water
use (Inman and Jeffrey 2006; Scheuer 2005).
In addition to metering, several Western European countries
apply cost recovery tariffs and have introduced site-specific
pricing structures. An increasing block rate creates the strongest
incentive for conservation, applying a user-pays principle, under
which the unit rate for water increases with water use, keeping
the price for basic water needs relatively low (Figure 11.9). This
system is becoming more common in both households and
commercial sectors in Western European countries (OECD 2009).
Applying this experience in Central and Eastern Europe would
not only reduce inefficient water consumption, but also generate
funds for modernizing the water sector, increasing the reliability
of water services delivery (Box 11.7).
Figure 11.8 Agricultural use of nitrogen (N),

phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) in Denmark,
19602007
Average application, kg per hectare
160
Nitrogen
140
120
100
80
Potassium
60
40
20
0
1960
Phosphorus
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: Petersen and Knudsen 2010
304
Farmland in Denmark, where the agricultural use of nitrogen has

dropped by more than 50 per cent since 1990. BjornRasmussen/iStock
Figure 11.9 Varying water tariff structures in selected European countries

Price per m3
Uniform rate per volume
Price per m3
Price per m3
Decreasing block rate
Price per m3
Increasing block rate
Seasonal rate
Peak
Armenia, Czech Republic,

Hungary, Poland
Greece
Water consumption
Water consumption
Belgium, Italy,
Luxembourg, Malta,
Portugal, Spain
Water consumption
O-peak
O-peak
France, Greece
Water consumption
Source: Adapted from Chesnutt et al. 1997
This policy, however, faces several limitations. The costs of meter

installation could be too heavy a burden for poor households
(Melikyan 2003), conflicting with the Millennium Development
Goal (MDG) 7c of halving, by 2015, the proportion of the
Box 11.7 Water metering in Armenia

By the late 1990s, the water sector in Armenia was severely
degraded due to poor maintenance and a failure to invest,
with non-revenue water use amounting to around 70 per cent
nationwide. Less than 15 per cent of the utility costs were
recovered, compared to an average of 3040 per cent among
newly independent countries (OECD 2007a). In 1999, the
Armenian government launched the following measures to
reform the water supply and sanitation sector:
reduce sector dependence on state subsidies and donor
assistance;
raise revenues from increased collection of water payments
based on metering; and
restructure water utility debts (OECD 2008).
Soon after the reforms took place, average water use
decreased three to four times compared to the use based
on flat-rate calculations. The massive process of introducing
individual metering became a trigger for a chain of water
sector improvements, all backed by a legal, regulatory
and institutional framework that enabled private sector
involvement accompanied by investment and management
efficiencies. As a result, the quality and reliability of water
delivery improved.
population without sustainable access to safe drinking water

and basic sanitation (UN 2000). Also, water pricing should not
result in a situation in which personal hygiene and health are
compromised in order to pay a water bill (EEA 2009b). To become
successful, water pricing and meter installation require a good
understanding of relationships between price and use in each
sector, taking local conditions into account. Special subsidy
schemes could be introduced for providing free meter installation
for poor families, gradual repayment terms, and special provisions
for writing off vulnerable families accumulated water debts.
Chemicals and waste
Both in the EU and in Eastern Europe, issues related to chemicals

and waste have always been of primary importance. The EUs
waste policy consists of three levels of legislation. The first,
so-called horizontal, level defines overall requirements for
all waste types and consists of the 2008 Waste Framework
Directive, which is the cornerstone of current EU waste policy
(ECouncil 2008b), and the 2006 Waste Shipment Regulation.
The second level of legislation deals with waste installations
and includes the Waste Incineration Directive, the 1999 Landfill
Directive and the 2000 Port Facilities Directive. In addition, the
2010 Industrial Emissions Directive also defines requirements
for some waste installations. Finally, the third level deals with
specific waste streams such as waste containing polychlorinated
biphenyls and terphenyls (PCBs/PCTs), waste oils, sewage
sludge, electrical accumulators like batteries, and packaging
waste. One example of such regulation is the Waste Electrical and
Electronic Equipment Directive, which deals with the collection
and recycling of such waste (ECouncil 2002b). It also includes the
Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive, which bans the
use of certain hazardous substances in electrical and electronic
products (ECouncil 2002a).
Europe
305
Figure 11.10 Moving up the waste hierarchy
Prevention
Ukraine all have large amounts of industrial waste in landfills

as well as mining waste, with few or no financial incentives
to recycle them. This is the result of many Soviet-era waste
management and reuse practices being abandoned without
alternative schemes being introduced (Devyatkin 2009).
Waste prevention
The EU Waste Prevention Directive of 2008 is based on definitions
laid down in the Waste Framework Directive, in which prevention
has been given the highest priority. Article 3.12 of the directive
demands waste prevention through measures taken before a
substance, material or product has become waste, by reducing:
the quantity of waste, including through the reuse of products
or the extension of the lifespan of products;
the adverse impacts of the generated waste on the
environment and human health; or
the content of harmful substances in materials and products.
Preparing for reuse
Recycling
Other recovery
Disposal
Waste prevention should also incorporate such aspects

as ecodesign, life-cycle approaches, changing business
models and consumption patterns (Box 11.8; Figure 11.11).
Source: EC 2010b
A basic principle of the EU Waste Framework Directive is the

hierarchy of waste management originally established in the
1996 Waste Strategy (Shinn 2005). It states that, in order to better
protect the environment, Member States should take measures
for their waste treatment in line with the hierarchy shown in
Figure 11.10, which listed in descending order of priority.
One of the EUs major aims has always been waste reduction,
but this goal has so far not been achieved (EEA 2010h). On
the contrary, the amount of waste has been growing, notable
examples including construction and demolition waste, packaging,
hazardous and municipal waste, and sewage sludge (EEA 2010h).
This trend has to be reversed, particularly as resource efficiency
is one of seven flagship initiatives of the ECs Europe 2020
Strategy (EC 2011b, 2011c), which is reflected in the EU goals
of decoupling resource use from economic growth, measured as
lower resource use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), and
of minimizing waste. In addition to reducing waste generation, it is
important to improve waste recycling. Current EU data indicate that
only 38 per cent of total waste is reused or recycled (EEA 2010h).
Even though radioactive waste is not a subject of the waste
hierarchy, it has important implications for both safety and
energy production. On 19 July 2011, the European Council
adopted the Radioactive Waste and Spent Fuel Management
Directive, which sets standards for the safe disposal of spent fuel
and radioactive waste from nuclear power plants as well as from
medicine or research. This was a major achievement achievement
for nuclear and environmental safety in the EU.
Other non-EU European countries also face significant challenges
in waste policy. For example, Belarus, the Russian Federation and
306
Box 11.8 Extended producer responsibility

The concept of extended producer responsibility in Europe
widens a manufacturers responsibility across a products
life cycle from its sale to its disposal, creating an incentive
to avoid unnecessary waste and encouraging recycling and
recovery. One example of this is the Green Dot system, which
puts a levy on producers for the collection and recycling of
waste components of their packaging (EC 2010b). If well
designed, this practice provides significant incentives to
introduce waste prevention mechanisms and to consider the
entire life cycle of the product (EC 2010b).
Figure 11.11 A life-cycle approach to resource

efficiency
Extraction of
natural
resources
Eco-design
of products
Reuse.
recycling,
recovery
Manufacturing
Waste
collection
Disposal
Distribution
Product use
Source: EC 2010b
The practical outcomes of this policy can be achieved through

a number of instruments, including legal provisions, voluntary
agreements, economic instruments and incentives, and
communication strategies.
Reuse and recycling
The Waste Framework Directive also encourages reuse, recycling
and recovery, providing a range of options for the recycling of
various materials including promoting the establishment of
recycling targets, which can be material-specific. The figures
show that the average amount of waste per citizen in the EU is
approximately 6 tonnes per year. Municipalsolidwaste alone
increased from 468kg per person in 1995 to 524 kg in 2008,
an increase of 12 per cent, caused by the increasing adoption
of Western consumption habits in the new Member States (EEA
2011c). However, EU countries have made measurable progress
in the efficient use of resources and management of waste, as
illustrated by the fact that municipal waste recycling more than
doubled between 1995 and 2008, rising from 17 per cent to
40 per cent (Figure 11.12) (EEA 2011c, 2010g).
Despite such advances, the EU is still not a recycling society,
given that as of 2008, the share of municipal waste disposed
of in or on land still exceeded 40 per cent (Figure 11.12) (EEA
2010g). Based on various macro-economic scenarios, it is
estimated that by 2035 total waste generation in the EU-27
will have increased by 6084 per cent compared to 2003
Recycling has multiple benefits for many areas of the economy.

Maike Janssen/iStock
levels, although these figures could be significantly revised due

to the current economic crisis (EEA 2010h).
Eastern Europe shows quite a different picture. In the Russian
Federation with a population of nearly 143 million, the total
Figure 11.12 Trends in municipal solid waste treatment in the EU, 19952008
Municipal solid waste treatment, %
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Deposit on or in land
Total incineration, including energy recovery
Material recycling
Other forms of recycling, including composting
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: EEA 2011a; Eurostat 2011
Europe
307
amount of waste generated annually is larger than that of the entire

EU with a population of 502 million (3.4 billion tonnes and 2.6
billion tonnes respectively) with 90 per cent of waste originating
from the mining industry (Eurostat 2011; Devyatkin 2009). On
average, however, only about 26 per cent of waste is recycled.
Of this recycled waste, 35 per cent is accounted for by industrial
waste and only 45 per cent by domestic waste. All the other types
of waste are effectively not recycled at all (Devyatkin 2009).
A life-cycle approach to waste management could significantly
reduce Europes dependence on imports of raw materials
and energy consumption for manufacturing new materials.
More significant gains can be made, but only through
full implementation of the EUs waste directives and in
particulartheEU LandfillDirective. Reuse and recycling would
also require significant changes in consumer behaviour, which
could be helped by information and education campaigns.
Chemicals policy
The most profound and ambitious piece of legislation regulating
chemicals in Europe entered into force on 1 June 2007 (EC 2007b).
This legislation deals with the Registration, Evaluation,
Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (REACH),
and replaces a patchwork of previous directives and regulations.
The seven objectives that are essential for achieving a
sustainable REACH framework are:
the protection of human health and the environment;
the maintenance and enhancement of the competitiveness of
the EU chemical industry;
the prevention of fragmentation of the EUs internal market;
increased transparency;
the integration with international efforts to regulate the

use of chemicals;
the promotion of non-animal testing; and
conformity with EU international obligations under the
World Trade Organization (WTO) (EC 2007b).
One of the most important elements of REACH is the registration
of chemicals. REACH requires companies that make and/or
import chemicals to submit registration dossiers to the European
Chemicals Agency (ECHA). The 2010 registration deadline was
related to bulk chemicals supplied in quantities of more than
1000 tonnes per year and very hazardous chemicals; by the
REACH deadline of 30 November 2010, the agency had received
24675 registration dossiers for 4300 substances. Despite
significant concerns raised by the chemicals industry about the
unprecedented burden REACH placed on companies and some
initial technical difficulties, the overall registration process
was a success (ECHA 2010). The future deadlines in 2013
and 2018 cover chemicals supplied in smaller quantities (EC
2007b). Additionally, REACH includes some limited provisions
for the integrated assessment of cumulative risks from multiple
substances and other stressors.
It is expected that implementation and compliance with this
legislation will lead to more predictable markets and a reduction
in companies liabilities, especially by providing a level playing
field for all market players.
Among new developments is the new EU Toy Safety Directive
(2009/48/EC), with Member States expected to have had the
new measures under way as of July 2011, and further parts of the
directive coming into force in July 2013. Toys come under REACH
regulations, and the new safety directive focuses in particular
on limiting the amounts of certain chemicals that may be
contained in materials used for them. Additionally, in 2013, the
EU will implement the new regulation on chemical substances in
cosmetics (1223/2009/EF), aimed at simplifying procedures and
streamlining terminology. It will also include new provisions for
nanomaterials and endocrine-disrupting substances.
The limitations of all these policy options are partly related to
difficulties in obtaining information on the environmental and
health risks of chemicals, especially new ones for which the risks
are unknown. As there may be business issues related to the cost
of filling knowledge gaps and clarifying uncertainties, there could
be substantial additional advantages in sharing information
between the European Chemicals Agency and its counterparts in
transitional European and developing countries.
Biodiversity
Under the EC regulation REACH, manufacturers are required to

gather and register information on the properties of their chemical
substances, into a centralized database. Carsten Madsen/iStock
308
Europeans are at the forefront of establishing multi-national

conservation efforts (Pullin et al. 2009). A wealth of biodiversity
conservation policies and tools, including various regional
conventions, have been applied to European terrestrial and
marine ecosystems. At supra-national level, biodiversity
conservation is mainly driven by such EU legal instruments as
the Nature Directives adopted in 1979 and 1992 (Figure 11.13)
Figure 11.13 Sites designated under the Habitats

Directive and the Birds Directive, 19952009
Million hectares (cumulative)
80
70
Habitats Directive:
Sites of Community Importance
EU-12
Bulgaria
Romania
60
Cyprus
50
Czech Republic
40
Hungary
Estonia
Latvia
30
Thanks to improved biodiversity and conservation efforts, the Alpine
ibex, once restricted by poaching pressure to Italys Gran Paradiso
National Park, has now recolonized most of the European Alps.
fotoVoyager/iStock
Lithuania
20
Malta
10
Slovakia
0
1996
Poland
Slovenia
2000
2005
2009
EU-15
Austria
and the pan-European Biological and Landscape Diversity

Strategy adopted at the Third Ministerial Environment for Europe
Conference in 1995. Although the EU directives are legallybinding and Pan-European strategy is not, the two are mutually
supportive and lead to an improved state of biodiversity in
Europe. In 2001, the EU and its Member States committed to
halt the loss of biodiversity by 2010 (CBD 2010a), but this
target was not met, and the status of biodiversity is still a cause
for serious concern (EC 2010d). As a result, a new EU 2020
biodiversity strategy was endorsed in May 2011 (Chapter 5)
(EC 2011c; CBD 2010b).
For the purpose of this analysis, three policy clusters were
identified as being beneficial in achieving biodiversity
conservation goals:
the establishment of ecological networks as a key means of
reducing biodiversity loss (Chapter 5);
payment for ecosystem services as an instrument for
conserving European agro-biodiversity; and
the sustainable management of forest resources.
Belgium
80
Denmark
Finland
Special Protection Areas
70
France
Germany
60
Greece
Ireland
50
Italy
40
Luxembourg
Netherlands
30
Portugal
Spain
20
Sweden
10
0
1996
United Kingdom
2000
2005
2009
Source: EEA 2010f; ETC/BD et al. 2008
Three cases were selected for further appraisal: the EU Natura

2000; agro-environment measures; and the voluntary panEuropean Forest Europe process.
(Figure 11.13) (EC 2010d). Similar network approaches also

apply beyond EU borders (Box 11.9).
The Natura 2000 network

Natura 2000, a tool used by the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy,
represents the largest supra-national network of protected areas
in the world (EEA 2010f). It incorporates sites established under
the EU Habitats and Birds Directives and aims to assure the longterm survival of Europes threatened and most valuable species
and habitats (Fock 2011; Watzold et al. 2010). It has developed
steadily over the last 15 years, and is now made up of more than
26000 sites covering 18 per cent of the EUs land and sea areas
The Natura 2000 network helps protect vulnerable habitats

and species as well as a wide range of ecosystem services,
including the regulation of climate (such as mitigation of climate
change), purification of water and maintenance of water flows,
preservation of landscape and amenity values, and support
of tourism and recreation (Gantioler et al. 2010; Cliquet et al.
2009). Furthermore, it facilitates cooperation beyond national
boundaries, contributes to the decentralization of nationallevel conservation policies, and encourages local and regional
Europe
309
economic development by offering job opportunities and helping

to attract finance (Ioja et al. 2010; Kluvankova-Oravska et al.
2009; EC 2008). Even though implementation of the network
requires around US$8 billion(6 billion) annually, there are
several examples demonstrating that the benefits exceed the
associated costs (Gantioler et al. 2010).
While the development of the network has made little
headway with marine environments, it is a real success for
terrestrial ecosystems (EEA 2010f). The conservation status
is, however, still only favourable for less than 20 per cent of
terrestrial habitats and species, both within and outside the
Natura 2000 network (Figure 11.14) (EEA 2010f). Initially, the
designation of sites faced a number of problems, but these
are being overcome through the democratization of multilevel biodiversity governance (Beijen 2009; Rauschmayer et
al. 2009). To avoid many sensitive problems in negotiations,
for example, in 1997 the EC initiated an apolitical process for
selecting sites in a bio-geographical context through scientific
seminars where boundaries were agreed (CEEweb 2011; Papp
and Toth 2004).
Figure 11.14 Conservation status of EU habitats

and species, 2008
Habitats
Unknown 18%
Unfavourable
bad 37%
Favourable 17%
Unfavourable
inadequate 28%
Species
Favourable 17%
Unknown 31%
Unfavourable
bad 22%
Unfavourable
inadequate 30%
Note: Bulgaria and Romania are not included.

Source: EEA 2010f; ETC/BD et al. 2008
310
Box 11.9 Ukraines national ecological network

Natura 2000 has been shown to have a significant influence
on the development of protected area networks beyond the
EU. Similar policies have been adopted both by potential
candidate countries and other Central and Eastern European
countries (UNEP 2007a). Ukraine, for example, as one of its
priority strategic directions for biodiversity conservation,
is trying to follow EU policies and has been developing
its national ecological network since 2000. Although the
creation of this network faces a number of challenges,
including a high degree of agricultural expansion and largescale fragmentation of natural landscapes, it has already
resulted in the establishment of transboundary ecological
corridors in the Carpathian region. The first corridors were
established between 2008 and 2010 as part of a project
to realize transboundary ecological connectivity in the
Ukrainian Carpathians, linking national parks in Poland,
Romania and Ukraine. The establishment of these corridors
received full support not only from forest managers and
local governments, but also from local communities
(Deodatus et al. 2010; UNEP 2007a).
Agri-environment measures
The need to preserve high nature-value farmland (Doxa et
al. 2010; EEA 2009a) in the EU was agreed in 2003 and
included in the Kyiv Resolution on Biodiversity (UNECE 2003);
it is also highlighted by the EU as a key action to prevent the
abandonment or intensification of these lands (EEA 2009a).
Agri-environment measures, an optional policy tool for farmers
(Ziolkowska 2009), provide compensation payments covering
implementation costs and associated income losses to farmers
who commit to preserving the environment and maintaining
their farmlands through environmentally friendly practices for
at least five years (Box 11.10) (Ziolkowska 2009). Under the EU
Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), Member States are obliged
to co-finance these measures: between 2007 and 2013, nearly
22 per cent of the expenditure on rural development, some
US$27.3 billion (20billion), was devoted to them (EC 2010a).
Securing financial support and avoiding delay in payments is
necessary to ensure farmer commitment (Whittingham 2007;
Pinto et al. 2005).
In terms of biodiversity conservation, agri-environment measures
are at their most successful over large areas (Whittingham 2007),
where they also contribute to the maintenance and enhancement
of landscapes, protection of the historic environment and of
natural resources, and the promotion of public access to the
countryside (EEA 2009a). Their high costs, however, may limit
their replicability in non-EU European and developing countries.
Other limitations to their spread include potential loss of
income for farmers and the difficulty predicting their effects on
biodiversity (Ziolkowska 2009; Whittingham 2007).
Box 11.10 Conserving high nature-value farmland

in Portugal
On the steppe plains of Castro Verde in southern Portugal,
the traditional farming system is based on non-irrigated
extensive cereal production, with a two- or three-year crop
rotation system. These semi-natural mosaic steppe habitats
are of value for the conservation of nature, particularly
the great bustard (Otis tarda). In 1993, a project under EU
LIFE a financial instrument supporting environmental
and nature conservation was implemented to support
the preservation of these birds and their habitats by
acquiring several farms, leaving the fields fallow, and
raising awareness among farmers and landowners. Then,
in 1995, an EU agri-environment plan was defined so that
the farmers could continue their traditional management
practices, rotating crops and maintaining low livestock
densities. By 1999 the bird population had improved
to such an extent that Castro Verde was included in the
Natura 2000 network as a special protected area for birds.
Assuring the maintenance and effectiveness of such
projects is an essential element in meeting long-term
conservation priorities. In this case, however, the agrienvironment scheme has not proved popular as delays in
subsidy payments led to some farmers withdrawing from
the plan (Pinto et al. 2005).
Forest Europe
Although forests currently (2010) cover 45 and 38 per cent of
Europes and the EU-27s territory respectively, only 26 and 4 per
cent of these forests are considered to be undisturbed by humans
(Figure 11.15) (Forest Europe et al. 2011). Most European forests
are heavily exploited and the share of old-growth stands, crucial
for forest species, is critically low. Nonetheless, Europes total
forest area is increasing thanks to national policy initiatives
coordinated in the Forest Europe framework a voluntary
pan-European policy process for establishing sustainable
management of the regions forests.
The Forest Europe process develops common strategies to
meet challenges such as climate change and the protection of
biodiversity and freshwater, both in Europe and globally (EEA
2010h, 2010a). Since 1990, it has established a collaborative
research network on forest ecosystems, a set of pan-European
criteria and indicators for sustainable forest management, and a
series of action programmes tackling cross-sectoral cooperation
and national forest programmes (EEA 2008). Sustainable forest
management, as defined by the Ministerial Conference on
the Protection of Forests in Europe, has been recognized as a
commendable example of the ecosystem approach advocated by
the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) (EEA 2008).
Finland is the most forested European country with some 73 per cent
of its land covered by forest. Samuli Siltanen/iStock
Figure 11.15 European forest area and status, by

region, 2010
Forest status, %
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Western Europe
100 million hectares
Plantation
The benefits of Forest Europe include harmonization of forest

policies in European countries that aim to achieve goals for
Central Europe
54 million hectares
Semi-natural
Eastern Europe
828 million hectares
Undisturbed by people
Source: Forest Europe et al. 2011
Europe
311
The Forest Europe framework has developed indicators that provide guidance for policy development and assess progress towards sustainable
forest management. Jens Stolt/iStock
protecting biodiversity, combating illegal logging and certifying

carbon sequestration. Europe has gained 5.1 million hectares of
forest since 2005 (Forest Europe et al. 2011), and between 2005
and 2010 about 870 million tonnes of CO2 were removed annually
from the atmosphere by photosynthesis and tree biomass growth,
about half of it in the EU-27 (Forest Europe et al. 2011).
is increasingly being taken into account. Even if such policies

still have one environmental theme as an entry point, they
increasingly cover wide ranges of related aspects. The recent
2009 EU Climate and Energy Package exemplifies such an
integrated approach, including binding legislation to achieve
three linked targets (the 20-20-20 targets).
Efforts to enhance the sustainability of forests through

management face a lack of national capacity and awareness, and
intensifying competition in international forest product markets.
There is therefore an urgent need for transnational coordination
to address common and cross-border issues (Hogl 2002).
National differences also reflect the different roles of forests in
various countries and the resulting political need to establish
official forest programmes.
It is through such integrated policies that multiple co-benefits

can be obtained most cost effectively. Industrial CO2 emission
reduction through emissions trading, for example, will at
the same time improve ambient air quality; and promoting
renewable energy systems will not only reduce CO2 emissions,
but will also decentralize energy production, potentially
improve energy security and provide employment opportunities
and economic growth in small and medium-sized companies.
Likewise, climate adaptation programmes will increase
resilience to climate change effects such as flooding, drought,
loss of biodiversity and increased vulnerability to disease, while
at the same time improving ambient air quality and reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, for example through adjusted
agricultural practices, which will also contribute to more
sustainable agriculture.
The absence of a legally binding agreement on forests at a panEuropean level cannot be considered a limitation to successful
policy implementation, but at some point it could slow the
process down, as common benchmarks and well-defined targets
for evaluating effectiveness and efficiency are lacking. In order to
improve and accelerate the process, in June 2011 the Ministerial
Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe adopted
the Oslo Ministerial Mandate for Negotiating a Legally Binding
Agreement on Forests in Europe.
Conclusions
One of the main conclusions of this chapter is that the

coherent application of effective policies across themes and
sectors can bring major benefits in terms of an improved
physical environment and a healthier population. In European
environmental governance, the integration of effective policies
under multiple environmental themes and economic sectors
312
Experience shows that limitations can be overcome if the

right enabling regimes are put in place. Common barriers to
implementing the policy tools discussed in this chapter are:
a lack of good data and information to assess impacts and
risks and thus support decision making;
insufficient financial resources from the private and public
sectors for dealing with environmental issues both in the
EU countries affected by the financial crisis and in non-EU
European countries;
a lack of systematic law enforcement;
traditional consumption-oriented economic policies that

contradict the imperative of more sustainable consumption
and hinder the decoupling of human well-being from
economic growth;
intensifying competition in international product markets; and
increasing egoism, diminished community solidarity and an
increasing, though often unjustifiable, sense of community
disconnection and insecurity.
Enabling conditions that would increase policy success and
replication are:
more policy coherence, streamlining and simplified
procedures that enhance cost efficiency and effectiveness;
more efficient monitoring systems;
stronger long-term commitment on the part of politicians and
governments;
stronger enforcement;
transnational coordination to address common and crossborder issues;
stronger private-sector involvement by creating and making
better use of markets; and
a more active civil society engaged through awareness raising
and strong multi-stakeholder agreements.
Promising emerging innovative policies relevant to the themes
covered in this chapter that would help to improve European
environmental governance further and would foster scale-up and
replication include:
Climate change
the EU Effort Sharing Decision, which establishes binding
emission targets for 2013 2020 for transport, agriculture,
buildings and waste, all sectors that are currently not covered
by the EU Emissions Trading System;
the encouragement of transnational voluntary networks
for local action on climate change and air quality, which
are actively spreading in Europe and are focusing on more
sustainable urban lifestyles, such as Local Governments
for Sustainability (ICLEI), Cities for Climate Protection, the
Climate Alliance, Energy Cities, CIVITAS and the Aalborg
Charter.
Air quality
devolving responsibility in local air quality management
to local administrations, facilitating identification and
implementation of policies.
Freshwater
the ECs expected 2012 Blueprint to safeguard Europes water
resources, which will focus on prevention and preparedness
in relation to river basin management, water scarcity and
drought, and vulnerability to climate change.
Chemicals and waste
the proposed mandatory target under the Waste Electrical
and Electronic Equipment Directive to recycle 65 per cent of
such waste currently only some 34 per cent is recycled;
the forthcoming EU regulations on toys to increase protection
of the most vulnerable (children);
the forthcoming EU Cosmetics Directive, to ensure adequate
protection from endocrine disruptors and nanomaterials; and
Renewable energies will play a crucial role in the transition to a low-carbon

economy; wind alone already accounted for 41 per cent of new power
installations in Europe in 2010. Mlenny Photography/iStock
new measure to address the integrated assessment of

cumulative risks from multiple substances and other stressors,
filling a main gap in current regulations covering chemicals.
Biodiversity
the expected adoption of a new Pan-European Biological and
Landscape Diversity Strategy 2020, aligned with CBD targets,
will reinforce the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy;
the common integrated framework in support of the EU 2020
Biodiversity Strategy, involving a wide range of services
and ministries, will create ownership across all relevant
policy areas and stakeholders beyond the traditional
biodiversity community.
In summary, European examples of regional cooperation on
the environment have served as a model for other countries
and regions and can potentially serve in the future. Features
include current formal institutional structures and the tradition
of legislating to improve state and trends in various realms in an
integrated way, though as contexts vary adjustments may need to
be made in other parts of the world.
Ongoing European attempts strive for continually improving
environmental governance, underpinned by strong civil society
participation and the recognized right of access to environmental
information and justice in environmental matters as laid down
in the Aarhus Convention, to date only applied in Europe. These
efforts are essential for a proper and robust treatment of the
shared environmental space and a healthy future for all.
Europe
313
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C H A P T E R
Ammit/iStock
12
Coordinating lead authors: Keisha Garcia and Joanna Kamiche Zegarra

Lead authors: Ligia Castro, Arturo Flores Martnez, Daniel Fontana Oberling,
Elsa Galarza, Alexander Girvan, Ernesto Guhl Nannetti, Gladys Hernndez, Paul Hinds,
Martha Macedo de Lima Barata, Ana Rosa Moreno, Rodrigo Noriega,
Maurice Rawlins (GEO Fellow) and Ernesto Viglizzo
Contributing authors: Dolors Armenteras, Andrea Brusco, Guillermo Castro Herrera,
Antonio Clemente (GEO Fellow), Keston Finch, Silvia Giada, Mayte Gonzlez,
Mark Griffith, Martin Obermaier, Mary Otto-Chang, Graciela Metternicht, Keith Nichols,
Aida Pacheco, Andrea Salinas, Asha Singh, Michael Taylor, Elisa Tonda, Angel Urea,
Oscar Vallarino, William Wills and Jessica Young
Principal scientific reviewer: Holm Tiessen
Chapter coordinator: Graciela Metternicht
317
Main Messages
Despite their heterogeneity, countries in Latin
America and the Caribbean share a number of
common environmental challenges. These include
climate change, biodiversity loss and concerns over
water and land management. Coastal and marine
issues, urbanization, poverty and inequity are also of
high priority.
The policies and instruments showcased in this
chapter require sound environmental governance
to ensure their effectiveness. Strong institutional
settings and policy frameworks are the foundation
for this, while public participation, monitoring
and evaluation, education, and a culture of
environmental awareness are fundamental for its
efficient functioning.
Policies in the region can only be effective if they
succeed in bridging the gap between science and
policy making. Robust policies rest on evidencebased research designed to meet the needs of
policy makers. Such research should include, where
relevant, local and indigenous knowledge, which is
an important feature of the region. Researchers and
policy makers need to collaborate to acquire the
318
318

relevant information, knowledge and innovation

for environmental decision making.
To be sustainable, the regions natural capital
needs to be managed in an integrated fashion
across sectors. To respond to the complex nature
of the regions environment and its opportunities
and challenges, policies should be designed
and implemented in ways that transcend the
traditional compartmentalized, sectoral approach.
This will help the region deal with some of its
persistent environmental and associated socioeconomic problems, including poverty, inequity
and social conflict.
The Latin America and Caribbean region has
developed and implemented good examples of
transformative policies and approaches. These are
usually at national and sub-national levels and offer
opportunities for replication both within and outside
the region. Their characteristics usually include the
effective incorporation of scientific information,
knowledge and best practice, links across sectors,
and strong governance mechanisms, stakeholder
participation, and political will and support.
INTRODUCTION
The 33 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean vary

significantly in size and economic development. The region
includes both Brazil, the seventh largest economy in the world
(The Economist 2011) and small island developing states, with
their open and fragile economies (Rietbergen et al. 2007). Rich
in natural resources, the region is home to approximately 23 per
cent of the worlds forests, 31 per cent of its freshwater resources
and six of the worlds 17 mega-diverse countries. Although these
resources are not evenly distributed, the overall richness and
economic importance of the regions ecosystems and its natural
capital are undeniable (UNEP 2010b).
Latin American and Caribbean countries face many challenges
in managing their rich natural resources. Population growth,
as well as unsustainable global and regional production and
consumption patterns, drive the increasing demand for, and
extraction of raw materials and other natural capital (Chapter 1).
This has led to the extensive conversion of natural environments
to productive systems, with impacts on the regions biodiversity.
With 79 per cent of its population living in towns and cities (UNEP
2010b), the region is one of the most urbanized in the world. It
faces challenges in providing its burgeoning towns and cities with
safe water and sanitation, and in addressing air pollution and the
contamination of its freshwater, oceans and seas. The associated
competition for scarce resources and the inequitable distribution
of benefits have led to emerging socio-environmental conflicts
and risks to the traditional lifestyles and livelihoods of local and
indigenous communities.
Global climate change exacerbates many of the regions existing
problems. Extreme weather patterns and climatic events are
increasing in frequency and intensity, and sea levels are rising.
The impacts are already affecting the regions most vulnerable
groups, including its small island developing states and many
rural, indigenous and poor populations. Thus, it is ever more

important to use water resources efficiently and to conserve
and sustain terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems. The
challenge, however, is great, and the region is far from achieving
some of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (UN 2010a).
Given the current situation, including poverty throughout Latin
America and the Caribbean, there is an urgent need to implement
more effective measures to halt and reverse the regions negative
environmental trends (UN 2010a).
The region has many laws relating to the environment but, at the
same time, the lack of institutional management and capacity to
implement and enforce them has constrained their effectiveness
(UNEP 2010b). In addition, policies are not keeping pace with
production practices or adapting sufficiently to global trends
and integration (UNEP 2011a). To address these challenges,
governments need a stronger commitment to new policies and
to making existing policies and mechanisms more effective.
Certain countries are progressing in incorporating new policy
mechanisms, such as valuation of ecosystem services, payment
for ecosystem services, climate-compatible development,
innovative green financing mechanisms, and sound corporate
practices, to name a few. Some progress is also being made in
developing national environmental/sustainable development
strategies that take both cross-sectoral and multi-stakeholder
views into account (Bovarnick et al. 2010; UNEP 2010b). These
positive lessons are a starting point for considering the options
available to the regions policy makers.
This chapter highlights policies considered to have the highest
potential for increasing environmental sustainability and
associated human well-being. A number of interrelated themes
have been selected as priorities: environmental governance; water
management; biodiversity; soil, land use, land degradation and
desertification; and climate change. Sustainable management of
oceans and seas is also important, especially to the regions small
Latin America and the Caribbean is the most urbanized region in the developing world. While urbanization exerts great pressure on natural
resources and ecosystems, properly managed cities can also be part of the solution to global environmental challenges. Aurelio Scetta
319
islands (Mahon et al. 2011), so coastal and marine issues are also
addressed. The following section appraises a number of policy
options for the region according to the selected themes, and also
addresses key points related to marine and coastal policy.
POLICY APPRAISAL
Environmental governance (Box 12.1; Figure 12.1) has been

identified as a priority theme for the region and is treated as crosscutting with respect to the other selected environmental themes.
This reflects the fact that sound environmental governance will
ultimately reverse environmental degradation and help achieve
the MDG targets and many multilateral environmental agreements.
Regional context
Governance of the environment and natural resources in Latin
America and the Caribbean is a complex mosaic. This stems from
the wide diversity of governance systems with different degrees
Box 12.1 Environmental governance

Environmental policy and institutional frameworks, and
the relationships between them, provide the essential
foundation of a governance framework. Sound policy
frameworks include a set of environmental norms,
policies and regulations at various levels international,
hemispheric, regional, sub-regional, national as well as
multilateral and bilateral environmental agreements.
Institutional settings also include civil society and the
private sector and the interactions between them. It
is important to note that the existence of policies and
institutional frameworks alone does not guarantee good
environmental governance.
Figure 12.1 The core constituents of

environmental governance
Stakeholders
(government, private sector,
civil society)
Policy framework
Environmental policies
Legal framework (international
agreements, laws and regulations)
Institutional mechanisms
Other sectors policies
INTERVENTIONS
Information,
knowledge
and innovation
Environmental sector
Plans, programmes and projects
International actions in
place
Financing
Participation
INTERVENTIONS
Social norms
And behaviour
Enforcement
Source: Singh 2008
320
In recent decades, most Latin American and Caribbean countries

have developed national environmental legal and institutional
frameworks to formulate strategies and action plans for
sustainable natural resource use and environmental protection
(UNEP 2010b; Larson 2003). In addition, countries have begun
to adopt a more cross-sectoral approach, with other agencies
considering environmental issues in addition to those directly
responsible for the environment. Despite these achievements,
a limited capacity to implement and enforce existing legislation
and poor institutional arrangements constrain effectiveness
(UNEP 2010b). The weak development of environmental policies
in the face of economic, financial, commercial and technological
globalization has aggravated the situation (UNEP 2011c).
Managing national environmental policies and balancing
internal priorities among other sectoral needs, while engaging
in multilateral efforts through multilateral environmental
agreements, constitutes a major challenge for the region.
Another concern is policy and institutional continuity, which
is especially important for environmental issues (Emilsson
et al. 2004). The timescales over which policies, programmes and
projects are realized do not always coincide with those of political
terms of office. Options to strengthen the political authority of
environmental agencies and maintain essential medium- to longterm efforts include longer terms of office and greater autonomy
for technical environmental officers, and creative financing
mechanisms to facilitate political independence.
A number of other requirements for good environmental
governance must still be met in the region; these are briefly
examined in the sections that follow.
Box 12.2 Levels of governance in Latin America and

the Caribbean
CORE GOVERNANCE
Institutional settings
of institutional development and approaches to environmental

issues, and different levels of governance mechanisms and
performance (Box 12.2). Regional and sub-regional mechanisms
play an important role in environmental management, although
in many cases the environment is not their main focus.
Governance mechanisms occur at a number of levels:

the hemispheric level, through the Forum of Ministers of
Environment of Latin America and the Caribbean, and at the
Wider Caribbean level through the Cartagena Convention
on the Protection of the Wider Caribbean Sea; the subregional level, as reflected in regional integration movements
including the Central America Integration System (SICA),
the Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM), the Andean
Community (CAN) and the Common Market of the South
(MERCOSUR); and at the national level. In addition, there
are specific frameworks to manage shared resources, such
as the Amazon Cooperation Treaty and many river basin
organizations.
Enabling factors for more effective environmental governance

For effective and efficient functioning, a number of enabling
conditions should support policy and institutional frameworks,
including adequate financial resources, scientific research
and information, environmental education and a culture of
environmental awareness. In addition, standard governance
principles and values such as transparency, accountability,
equity, sustainability and inclusive stakeholder participation
should underpin any governance framework (Mahon et al. 2010;
Gaventa and Valderrama 1999).
Policies for generating and disseminating information foster a

better understanding of environmental conditions, problems and
potential solutions and improve the science-policy interface.
Reliable and timely information allows decision makers to
respond appropriately and thus improves decision making (Table
12.1a). Where relevant, this information should also incorporate
indigenous/local knowledge (Table 12.1b). To influence policy
and decision making effectively, environmental information
should be transformed into easily understood, scientifically
derived indicators to convey clear messages to policy makers
Table 12.1 Environmental governance case studies

Generating environmental information and improving the science-policy interface
(a)
Monitoring and evaluation

Central America
The Regional Biodiversity Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (PROMEBIO) has been formulated as a
regional programmatic instrument to generate information that enables the management of biodiversity
and natural resources, helps the various key stakeholders and decision makers at both regional and
national levels to incorporate the issue into their strategic agendas and decisions, and makes a significant
contribution to the process of environmental integration in Central America (CCAD-UNDP/GEF 2005).
(b)
Importance of local knowledge in managing

marine protected areas
Belize
Bird Caye National Park and Gladden Spit Marine Reserve are co-managed by Friends of Nature, a local
non-governmental organization, through agreements with the government authority the Forestry and
Fisheries Department. Friends of Nature manages the areas, enforcing fishing rules andregulations, which
enhances policy effectiveness through local legitimacy and reduces tension between local fishers and federal
authorities. Links to fishing communities and international research organizations facilitate the combination
of scientific and localknowledge for improved understanding of local environmental conditions(Gray 2008).
Education and environmental culture

(c)
Formal environmental education

Mexico
In the Mexican state of Morelos, a new system of formal environmental education has been developed
focused on the particularities and features of the natural environment surrounding the public schools. This
programme has proved to be of interest to educators, environmental activists and international organizations
worldwide (Hurtado Badiola 2008).
(d)
E-government web
Panama
In 2005, the National Environmental Authority (ANAM) implemented an e-government web-based platform
that allows public access to proposed regulations, environmental studies, scientific reports and other key
documents including administrative fines and complaints. This is fostering active interaction with nongovernmental organizations, the media and the general public (ANAM 2009).
Improving public participation

(e)
Co-management in a mangrove ecosystem

Saint Lucia
Co-management of resources is aptly demonstrated in the Mankt Mangrove in Saint Lucia, where
participatory and collaborative approaches and methods have been used for reconciling economic and other
human activities with conservation imperatives (Brown and Renard 2000).
(f)
Latin America partnership for water funds

Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
These are private-public, long-term financial partnerships to protect critical watersheds, attracting
voluntary contributions from large downstream water users who benefit from upstream water preservation
activities including reforestation, ecotourism and water-flow monitoring. They also support green economic
opportunities with a positive impact on local communities, such as sustainable farming (Calvache et al. 2011).
Environmental economics and market mechanisms

(g)
System of Environmental-Economic
Accounting (SEEA)
Mexico
This system adjusts national accounts to reflect environmental damage and the depletion of natural
resources, such as water and minerals, which cost Mexico nearly US$90 billion annually, or 8% of the
countrys gross domestic product (GDP) from 2005 to 2009 (INEGI 2011). This is attributed to the globalization
of markets, weak and poorly implemented policies and failure to enforce existing laws
Collaboration and coordination

(h)
The Caribbean Sea Commission

Wider Caribbean
The Caribbean Sea Commission, established by the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) in 2006, was set up
to help advance work on the Caribbean Sea Initiative. This body has the potential to bring greater coherence
to the policies and other governance structures associated with the Caribbean Sea (Mahon et al. 2011).
Improving environmental justice

(i)
A manual for fighting environmental crimes

Peru
In Peru, the Manual for Investigating Environmental Crimes has been developed as a tool for obligatory use by
environmental prosecutors. It is intended to guide investigation and punishment of environmental crimes in
the Peruvian Amazon and other key ecosystems, as well as to bring greater coherence to approaches aimed at
environmental crime prevention (Avina 2011).
(j)
Environmental justice in practice: the

Mendoza Case
Argentina
Positive steps were made in resolving a decades-old pollution problem in the Riachuelo watershed of Buenos
Aires with the ruling adopted by the Supreme Court of Argentina in the Mendoza case. Residents sued the
federal government for damage to their health, resulting in a ruling that held the City of Buenos Aires and the
federal government responsible for the damage to and reparation of the watershed, and the setting up of an
authority to address the environmental health issues. This authority has embarked on a range of clean-up and
restoration efforts (Staveland-Saeter 2011; di Filippo 2000).
321
Since the early 1990s, most countries have incorporated

provisions for citizen participation in environmental legislation
or in thematic or sectoral laws and have created a variety of
citizen participation councils (Gaventa and Valderrama 1999).
Although national and local regulations have standards for public
participation, including those for a variety of instruments such as
public hearings and consultations, implementing them effectively
continues to be a challenge.
Costa Rica has been a pioneer and leader among Latin American
countries in the design and development of systems of payment for
environmental services. Francisco Romero/iStock
and the public (UNESCO-SCOPE 2006; Cimorelli and Stahl 2005).

Importantly, information should not be policy prescriptive
but policy relevant, and should provide decision makers with
alternatives and associated scenarios (Watson 2005).
Relevant information and indicators also help in monitoring
and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and determining
if they have allowed management approaches to adapt to new
conditions; these are important elements of good environmental
governance. Good monitoring and evaluation programmes need
to consider appropriate time frames and adequate baselines, and
focus on results-based management using appropriate indicators.
While well established in internationally sponsored projects
(Pasteur and Blauert 2000), planned participatory monitoring
and evaluation systems should also be used in government-run
initiatives to quantify results and enable adaptive management.
It is important that, in addition to quantitative scientific
information, monitoring and evaluation regimes include social,
political and cultural qualitative data to assess results and
develop methods to improve policy effectiveness (Stem et al.
2005).Indicators may be process-based to measure progress or
outcome-based to measure effectiveness, and should include the
evaluation criteria of coverage, effectiveness, sustainability and
replication (GEF 2011).
Environmental education gives people a greater sense of
responsibility and increases awareness of the consequences
of their actions. It promotes an environmentally conscious
culture that helps to overcome a general lack of environmental
awareness, one of the main causes of adverse change.
Furthermore, an environmentally aware culture potentially
improves public participation and increases public support for
initiatives (Table 12.1c, d). For example, increased environmental
awareness is credited with greater public support for developing
payment for ecosystem services in Costa Rica (UNDP 2011).
322
Co-management is one of the most effective and efficient

approaches to incorporating public interests in environmental
decision making (Moreno-Snchez and Maldonado 2008). The
co-management of protected areas and watersheds by local
communities, civil society organizations, indigenous peoples
and even the private sector, has become a model of stakeholder
participation. This approach has been widely adopted in such
areas as biodiversity conservation and forest management (Table
12.1b, e). For example, public-private partnerships used in
tandem with economic incentives to protect critical watersheds
are evident in a number of countries (Table 12.1f).
In many cases, however, citizens are only consulted at the very
end of the decision-making process. This has exacerbated
conflicts that integrated water resources management and
multi-scale land-use planning are designed to prevent or resolve,
including conflicts over water resources and land tenure. It is
increasingly clear that there is a need for mechanisms to ensure
accountability and transparency to reduce the risk of corruption
in decision-making processes and to increase financial flows to
environmental programmes (Transparency International 2010).
Negative externalities resulting from market forces are often
considered a driving force of adverse environmental change.
Thus, in developing future environmental policies in the
region, it is of utmost importance to recognize the economic
value of ecosystem services. An appreciation of the market
value of ecosystem services, which reflects the link between
the environment and human well-being in monetary terms,
helps promote an environmental culture and improves the
political viability of environmental protection. The use of
economic incentives encourages citizens and businesses to
make decisions based on the true long-term economic value of
nature and the services it provides. Examples include Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and
additionally for conserving and sustainably managing forests
and enhancing forest carbon stocks (REDD+); payment for
ecosystem services such as the Fund for the Protection of Water
in Peru (Table 12.2b); and feed-in tariffs to support renewable
energy. Valuing natural assets economically also allows decision
makers in the public and private sectors to optimize their costbenefit analyses and may be used to adjust national accounts
and other economic indicators (Table 12.1g). Other tools, such
as green funds and environmental taxes, can be used to raise
funds for cash-strapped environmental agencies and causes.
For example, the Trinidad and Tobago Green Fund couples both
sets of tools to fund biodiversity preservation and ecosystem
management (Table 12.3j).
Figure 12.2 A governance framework for large

marine ecosystems
Global marine policy cycle
Global
Caribbean Sea
regional policy cycle
Regional
Tourism
National
Local
Fisheries
Transport
Biodiversity
Landbased
pollution
Source: Fanning et al. 2007
Effective environmental governance, especially in the context

of complex systems, requires that stakeholders collaborate and
cooperate; it also requires coordination and harmonization
of institutions, policies and other instruments. A number of
platforms and mechanisms have been established to facilitate
greater collaboration and coordination and improve coherence
among governance systems, although these vary in nature, scale
and level of success. One such mechanism is the Caribbean Sea
Commission (Table 12.1h), which is one of several initiatives
under way to strengthen the cohesiveness of the approximately
30 organizations involved from the sub-regional to the
international level in coastal and marine management in the
Caribbean Sea (Mahon et al. 2011). A multi-scale governance
framework is proposed for this large marine ecosystem by
Fanning et al. (2007), which accommodates the diversity of policy
cycles at multiple levels and the links between them (Figure
12.2). Such a framework could be adapted for other ecosystems
or environmental issues.
Environmental justice is the fair treatment and meaningful
involvement of all people regardless of race, colour,
national origin, or income with respect to the development,
implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws,
regulations, and policies (USEPA 2011). In recent decades,
several Latin American and Caribbean countries have made
significant progress in environmental justice, particularly by
enacting specialized procedures and mechanisms, as well as
by enhancing the capacity of judiciaries; in some cases, this
has included establishing specialized tribunals, for example the
Tribunal Ambiental Administrativo in Costa Rica, and designating
environmental prosecutors (Table 12.1i).
Although there are positive examples of judicial rulings in the
region (Table 12.1j), there are still many challenges to improving
environmental justice, including institutional and legislative

weaknesses, low public participation and lack of awareness and
information about peoples environmental rights.
The emerging role of the judiciary is also important. In many
countries, civil society organizations, prosecutors and individual
citizens are using the judicial system to defend environmental
rights. This occurs mostly through constitutional courts, but also in
criminal and civil courts. In addition, the justice system has been
proactive in resolving technically and legally complex disputes by
overcoming procedural obstacles and adapting traditional legal
institutions to the specifics of environmental law. The judiciary still
needs to develop a considerable amount of capacity in addressing
environmental issues, however, particularly by training legal
professionals, especially lawyers and prosecutors.
Conclusion
Environmental governance should be viewed as a cross-cutting
theme across all the other priority issues identified in Latin
America and the Caribbean. Despite its complex environmental
governance mechanisms, the region has made significant
progress in developing national environmental legal and
institutional frameworks. Poor institutional arrangements and
a limited capacity for implementation and enforcement, among
other deficiencies, however, have hampered their effectiveness.
A number of enabling conditions need to accompany these
frameworks including adequate financial resources, scientific
research and information dissemination, environmental education
and an improved environmental culture. They also involve the
standard governance principles and values of transparency,
accountability, equity, sustainability and inclusive stakeholder
participation. Such good governance can help reverse the current
trend in environmental degradation and help to achieve the targets
of the MDGs and many multilateral environmental agreements.
Water
The availability of clean water in sufficient quantities and of

sufficient quality was declared a human right by UN Decision
64/292 and is recognized in the constitutions of some Latin
American and Caribbean countries. This section describes a set
of policy options, presented in clusters, that intend to provide
guidance for decisions about water provision and consumption.
They were identified as potential options to address the
Johannesburg Plan of Implementation Paragraph 26c (WSSD
2002), selected as the regions internationally agreed goal
related to water.
Integrated water resources management
Integrated water resources management has been widely
acknowledged as a way of achieving long-term solutions to
water problems because of its interdisciplinary approach. Its
implementation in developing countries, however, has been
rather slow (UN-Water 2008). Integrated policies include those
associated with:
strengthened water governance;
application of economic and financial instruments; and
improvement of information on water quality and quantity.
323
Strengthened governance is both a cause and effect of an

holistic view of water management because it implies a balance
between public interest and the rights of the individual.
Economic instruments and information are key tools in managing
complex situations such as water scarcity, water-use conflicts
and pollution. Economic instruments include mechanisms to
change the culture of water use, such as economic valuation
and the polluter-pays principle. Information gathering, including
outputs from indicators and monitoring processes, supports the
management of supply and demand and also helps to sustain
traditional knowledge about the links between water, people and

the environment. Finally, in the context of climate change, waterrelated information systems to prevent disasters and manage risk
are increasingly important for the region (Table 12.2a, b, c).
Integrated approaches to water management enable resources
and capabilities to be used in an efficient, cost-effective and
sustainable way, which is ever more important as demand for
water increases with population growth, and as the impacts
of climate change are felt. Other benefits include fewer
Table 12.2 Water case studies

Integrated water resources management
(a)
Strengthened water governance:

institutional arrangements
Bolivia
Several community organizations in the peri-urban areas of the city of Cochabamba have engaged in different ways
of guaranteeing the water supply for domestic consumption. The result is a network of providers, distributors,
committees and various types of arrangements that alleviate basic needs. At the same time, a metropolitan area
master plan is under development (GIZ/PROAPAC 2011).
(b)
Application of economic and financial

instruments: payment for ecosystem
services
Colombia, Ecuador, Peru
The Fund for the Protection of Water (FONAG) is a trust fund to which water users in Quito, Ecuador, contribute. This
fund is used to co-finance activities, projects and programmes for the rehabilitation and conservation of 65000
hectares of watersheds that supply Quito and surrounding areas. Similar funds have been developed in Colombia
and Peru (Cisneros and Lloret 2008).
(c)
Improved information on water quality

and quantity: National System of
Environmental Indicators
Mexico
Water is one of the components of the National Environmental Indicators system. This uses indicators for
situational assessments of water resources in terms of availability and quality. Indicators reflect pressures on the
availability for different uses, its state, and action being taken to preserve water. Also reflected by the indicators
are factors that affect water quality, the condition of water bodies in the country, and action being taken to stop
their deterioration and allow recovery (SEMARNAT 2009).
Sustainable water provision and consumption

(d)
Conservation and restoration of water

for supplying ecosystems: rainwater
harvesting
Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas,
Brazil, Grenadines, Mexico, Peru
Rainwater harvesting is one of the most successful water management practices in the region because of its
relatively low cost and its technical feasibility for multiple uses. In the Caribbean, rainwater harvesting is a source
of water for around 500000 people. Brazil has a programme for the construction of a million rural cisterns; Mexico
and Peru have capacity-building and demonstration centres (CEHI/GWP-C 2010; GWP-C 2010; UNEP 2010b; Colegio
de Postgraduados 2004).
(e)
Promotion of water-use efficiency in

agriculture
Bolivia
Traditional projects to enhance irrigation systems used to focus mainly on improving the collection, transmission
and distribution of water, with water use at the plot level seldom addressed. Recent projects have contributed to
the efficiency of irrigation systems, increasing water availability at the plot level by up to 50% by means of best
practices in surface irrigation and with adequate technology (PROAGRO/GTZ/DED 2010).
Wastewater treatment and reuse

(f)
Lower-cost sewerage systems

Brazil
The condominium sewerage system was developed in Brasilia and Salvador de Bahia as a mechanism to expand
sewer services for 1.5 million condominium residents. One of the benefits of this policy is that providers and users
need to reach an agreement to facilitate service expansion and adaptation to local needs. Thus, the condominium
becomes not only a physical unit of service provision, but a social unit for facilitated collective decisions and the
organization of communal action. Additionally, this system provides a discount of 40% on the standard sewerage
charge for households (Melo 2005).

(g)
Coastal Zone Management Unit

Barbados
The Coastal Zone Management Unit in Barbados, established 25 years ago, has two strategic objectives:
sustainable use of the coastal management area by implementing policies that maintain and, where possible,
enhance environmental quality while still enabling economic development; and
an effective legal and administrative structure to implement integrated coastal management.
Pursuing its objectives, the unit works with the Town and Country Development Planning Office. The unit provides
technical expertise to make an informed and just assessment when the site chosen for development falls within
the coastal zone management area (CZMU Barbados 2011).
324
(h)

Colombia
The management plan of the Guapi-Iscuande Integrated Management Unit has enabled ecosystem conservation,
support to communities, and rational and alternative use of environmental resources by all involved stakeholders.
The plan started in 2000 and has helped to design environmental agendas with local communities including
indigenous and ethnic groups, as well as fostering the creation of a local committee for integrated coastal zone
management (INVEMAR 2011).
(i)
Cartagena Convention for the Protection

and Development of the Marine
Environment
Wider Caribbean
This regional policy framework, which entered into force in 1986, is a comprehensive, umbrella agreement for
the protection and development of the marine environment. The convention is supplemented by three protocols:
the Protocol Concerning Co-operation in Combating Oil Spills; the Protocol Concerning Specially Protected Areas
and Wildlife; and the Protocol Concerning Pollution from Land-Based Sources and Activities (UNEP-CEP 2011a;
UNEP 2000).
Paute River in the Andes Mountains of Ecuador, where sustainable water resource management plays a vital role in food security and energy, and in
supporting valuable ecosystem services for the Santiago Morona region and beyond. Ammit/iStock
water-related conflicts, such as in managing transboundary

basins and other competing uses; increased participation
of stakeholders in decision making including women,
indigenous groups and other minorities that can help reduce
marginality and inequity and promotes transparency and
accountability; increased water conservation and sustainable
distribution; decision making and policy formulation based
on evidence and traditional knowledge; and appropriate basin
management that contributes to land-use planning policies,
helps address issues of food security, ecosystem protection
and waste management, and reduces transaction costs in water
chains (Dalhuisen and Nijkamp 2002).
Integrated water resources management has only been
implemented in Latin America and the Caribbean in a limited
way due to fragmented and conflicting institutional mandates,
lack of skilled human resources, inadequate mechanisms for
effective public participation, lack of sustainable financing
and harmonization mechanisms, and a lack of structures and
procedures to gather and present data.
Enabling conditions to promote integrated management include:
water policy reform, including legislation and standards;
water governance, including institutional frameworks to

monitor and enforce legislation, development of institutional
capacity to design and implement integrated management
plans, projects and long-term programmes at different scales,
and greater engagement and use of local knowledge through
basin committees;
land register development, stable governance arrangements,
low transaction costs, credible enforcement arrangements
and clearly defined rights and/or entitlements for land and
water use;
developing government capacity to collect tax revenues, so
that funds can be efficiently and equitably allocated to water
programmes and projects; and
education and information programmes (UNEP 2011c).
Sustainable water provision and consumption
The Latin America and Caribbean region has 31 per cent of the
worlds freshwater resources (UNEP 2010b). However, given
the regions rate of population growth, rapid urbanization
and current patterns of water use (UNEP 2010b), sustaining
ecosystem services and an adequate water supply for future
generations is an increasingly important issue. Investment in
infrastructure is necessary, but it alone is not enough to solve
325
Figure 12.3 Population with access to improved

sources of drinking water
% of population
100
90
80
1990
2000
2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Caribbean
South
America
Latin America Mesoamerica

and the Caribbean
Source: UNEP-EDE 2012
the problem of water supply and demand. There is need for a

change in policy making and management approaches, from
those based exclusively on managing supply to the inclusion
of both supply and demand management (Jouravley
2001). Among users, there is need for a cultural change
througheducation and economic incentives. Two main policy
options may be considered:
conservation and restoration of water-supplying ecosystems;
promotion of water-use efficiency in human consumption and
production activities.
Ecosystems provide a wide range of services within a watershed.
Thus, establishing and maintaining the minimum amount
of water they require (environmental flows) is vital to ensure
a balanced hydrological cycle and a constant water supply.
In areas where resources are heavily exploited, improved
water-use efficiency is urgently needed through technological
developments and by applying traditional and scientific
knowledge (Table 12.2d, e). This fosters measures to adapt
to climate change as well as reducing costs for water users.
Investments in water-use efficiency include the control of
unaccounted water at the grid level, installation of water-saving
appliances, reuse and recycling systems, rainwater harvesting
and water-saving irrigation systems, among others. Although
initial investments are high, reduced water use translates into
reduced costs in the long term.
Despite notable progress, a significant portion of the regions most vulnerable people largely in the growing number of informal settlements,
or favelas still lack access to clean water and sanitation systems. Luoman/iStock
326
Figure 12.4 Population with access to improved

sanitation
These policies are specific to each sub-region on issues such

as water use relative to water availability; existing water supply
infrastructure including its condition and size, geographical
watershed extent, number of people connected and number
of people who receive measured water; user characteristics
including socio-economic issues, consumption patterns,
and essential and non-essential uses; and technical, financial
and institutional resources (Sutherland and Fenn 2000).
Examples of technological options to expand water availability
are rainwater harvesting, water reuse, groundwater recharge
and desalination.
% of population
100
90
80
1990
2000
2008
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Caribbean
water quality improvement;

wastewater treatment and reuse; and
water conservation (UNEP 1997).
South
America
Latin America Mesoamerica

and the Caribbean
Source: UNEP-EDE 2012
Overall water policy needs reform to ensure that the policies

proposed here do not remain isolated projects or campaigns,
but have long-term effects. It is thus important to develop the
political will to adopt legislation that will effect positive change
through encouraging incentives and enforcing penalties. There
must be economic incentives such as access to loans with
low interest rates and equitable conditions, as well as waterefficiency certification schemes. Management committees, civil
society and multi-stakeholder participation are key to success.
In summary, sustainable water supply and demand can be
achieved when the economic, cultural and social value of water
is acknowledged.
Expansion of drinking water and sanitation systems
To achieve MDG 7, 92.5 per cent of the population of Latin
America and the Caribbean must have access to safe drinking
water and 84.5 per cent to basic sanitation by the end of 2015
(WHO and UNICEF 2010). According to the most recent MDG
report, the region has high rates of achievement for the first
target and moderate ones for the second. This suggests that
the sanitation target will not be met if prevailing trends persist
(UN 2010b). Furthermore, there are enormous differences
within segments of the population, between urban and rural
areas, and between the three sub-regions (Figures 12.3
and 12.4).
The drinking water and sanitation policy cluster includes:
freshwater augmentation;
These policies require a high level of commitment from

governments as well as relatively high financial investments
(Trmolet et al. 2010). In addition, maintenance costs, lack
of technical competency for example for desalination and
inefficient water-use habits could hinder the expansion of
coverage. International cooperation is needed to finance cases
requiring special technical or social development skills that
governments cannot afford (Melo 2005).
Investing in sanitation is cost effective in terms of the ratio
of public cost to estimated health benefits. According to
Trmolet et al. (2010), the economic benefits range from US$3
to US$34 for each US$1 invested, depending on the region.
Household treatment, such as disinfecting water for drinking
and food preparation, cuts the primary transmission route for
diarrhoeal disease and can pay back up to US$60 for every
US$1 invested (WHO and UNICEF 2005). One such example is
Brazil, with its innovative mechanisms to promote sewerage
systems (Table 12.2f).
Population density in the regions coastal zones is significantly
greater than in inland areas (Figure 12.5). Coastal infrastructure,
urbanization and tourism and land-based pollution are
significant pressures on coastal and marine ecosystems. The rise
in sea level due to climate change and the increasing frequency
of El Nio/La Nia phenomena are also affecting coasts and
changing coastline dynamics, ecosystem health, rainfall patterns
and river flows, as well as damaging infrastructure.
Integrated coastal zone management is a multidisciplinary and
intersectoral approach to land-use planning that promotes
effective, meaningful and sustainable management of coastal
resources (Ramcharan 2001). Similar to integrated water
management, it assimilates the interests and needs of different
stakeholders, maintaining ecosystems and their services in a
cooperative and rational manner. In the Caribbean, for example,
mechanisms have been implemented through the international
project for Integrating Watershed and Coastal Area Management
in the Small Island Developing States of the Caribbean (IWCAM)
and the action plans of Barbados, Belize and Saint Lucia.
327
Figure 12.5 Estimated population density in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010
Number of people per km2

15
525
2550
50100
100250
More than 250
Source: CIESIN and CIAT 2005
The coastal management policy cluster includes the

establishment and execution of legislation, regulations,
standards and procedures to prevent or minimize environmental
degradation, and to protect and restore the quality and function
of ecological systems within the coastal zone. It requires an
appropriate legal framework, effective institutional structure,
and information, data and knowledge for management (Islam
and Koudstaal 2003). It also needs a clear and collectively
328
recognized definition of the coastal zones limits. The foundation

for implementing this approach is a coastal zone management
action plan, while strengthening monitoring and evaluation
capabilities enables progress to be rigorously tracked.
Integrated coastal management promotes the preservation of
ecologically sensitive areas such as mangroves, fosters the
sustainability of important socio-economic activities such as
fisheries and tourism, preserves natural ecosystem functions

and services such as coral reefs, and improves the quality of the
marine environment, for example by reducing contamination
from vessels and in ports. Experience in Barbados, Colombia,
Saint Lucia and the wider Caribbean demonstrates these
benefits (Table 12.2g, h, i).
Biodiversity
Latin America and the Caribbean is home to approximately 70

per cent of the worlds species and almost 20 per cent of its
ecoregions (UNEP 2010b). Its economy is highly dependent
on this rich biodiversity, yet it is increasingly under threat from
human activities (Box 12.3). Although there are numerous
biodiversity policies and measures in the region, collectively they
do not effectively conserve its biological resources.
Addressing the driving forces that affect biodiversity (Box 12.3)
requires equitable, evidence-based, participatory, crosssectoral policies designed to protect and restore biological
resources (Diaz 2010). In the context of the new Aichi Targets
(CBD 2010) 20 targets that form the framework for biodiversity
conservation until 2020 (Box 5.1) under the Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD) and given the regions biodiversity
priorities, CBD Article 10 was selected as the internationally
agreed biodiversity goal related to this priority issue (CBD
1992). The following four policy options are considered able to
help accelerate the regions progress towards meeting this goal.
Increasing and expanding protected areas, improving their
management and creating greater connectivity
Latin America and the Caribbeans protected areas, including
marine, cover more than 500 million hectares in 4 400 different
zones. They are considered to be one of the regions most
important policy measures for conserving biological diversity
(Bovarnick et al. 2010; UNEP 2010b). There is documented
evidence that protected areas not only play a role in conserving
species and habitats, but also deliver a range of ecosystem
services and are considered important in climate change
adaptation and mitigation (CBD 2008). If properly managed, they
can both contribute to national gross domestic product (GDP)
and help to cover their own costs (Table 12.3a, b). Although not
often realized, protected areas have the potential to provide a
range of social benefits: improving equity and alleviating poverty
as well as empowering women, communities and indigenous
peoples all of which are important considerations in the region
(Bovarnick et al. 2010).
Although protected areas have demonstrated both progress and
success in biodiversity conservation in Latin America and the
Caribbean, they face a number of challenges. An important one is
that isolated areas often offer insufficient protection, but creating
biological corridors or improving landscape-scale connectivity
can improve protected area performance (Brudvig et al. 2009;
Dudley and Rao 2008; Bennett 2003). Greater connectivity can
also improve species resilience to climate change and provide
multiple benefits to humans (Table 12.3c, d) (Harvey et al. 2008;
Bennett and Mulongoy 2006).
Scarlet macaws, a symbol of Neotropical biodiversity, are now

threatened due to habitat loss and poaching. Roberto A Sanchez/iStock
Box 12.3 Threats to biodiversity in Latin America

and the Caribbean
Biodiversity in Latin America and the Caribbean is
threatened by a number of linked factors including:
habitat loss, conversion and alteration;
overharvesting or unsustainable use of terrestrial and
aquatic resources;
unsustainable land management practices;
contamination of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems from
intensive economic activities;
the spread of alien invasive species that impact the
structure and functioning of ecosystems;
climate change;
demographic pressures;
globalization of markets; and
weak and poorly implemented policies and failure to
enforce laws.
Of all drivers, the conversion of natural environments to
productive systems is currently considered the most pressing
(Bovarnick et al. 2010; UNEP 2010b).
329
Table 12.3 Biodiversity case studies

Protected areas
(a)
Quantifying the contribution of national

Mexicos federal protected areas contribute at least US$3.5 billion every year to the economy. This represents a
systems of protected areas to the economy return of US$57 for each US$1 invested in protected areas by the federal budget (Bezaury Creel 2009; Bezaury Creel
Mexico
and Pabn Zamora 2009).
(b)
User fees supporting marine protected

area activities
Jamaica
The establishment of marine protected areas is a common way for governments to regulate activities affecting coral
and marine resources. In the Montego Bay Marine Park, a tax of 0.1% on tourist equipment helps to cover the parks
costs and sustain the parks activities (Reid-Grant and Bhat 2009).
(c)
Mesoamerican Biological Corridor

Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Panama
Established in 1997 by the governments of the eight Central American countries, the Mesoamerican Biological
Corridor acts as a primary pathway between large and important areas of habitat, predominantly protected areas.
By promoting greater opportunities for local residents to participate in planning and management, the corridor is
helping to promote a greater sense of human well-being while ensuring that the biological heritage of the region is
protected and enhanced (Lpez and Jimnez 2007; Bennett 2004).
(d)
Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor

Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Panama
A voluntary agreement created the corridor to encourage regional management for the Eastern Tropical Pacific
seascape. The initiative has included more than 80 non-governmental organizations, research organizations,
local community groups and the private sector in promoting regional cooperation for training, education and the
conservation of coastal-marine resources (UNESCO 2011).
(e)
Amazon Region Protected Areas (ARPA)

Brazil
Brazils Amazon Region Protected Areas (ARPA) programme is the largest worldwide initiative in tropical forest
conservation, aiming to protect 600 000 km of biologically important areas between 2003 and 2018. ARPA has been
innovative in
developing decision support tools in protected area management;
developing financial mechanisms to allow protected areas to be sustainable in the long term; and
engaging a wide range of stakeholders in the decision-making process.
ARPA has the potential to avoid 5 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2050 (Simpson 2010; Azevedo-Ramos et al. 2006).
The ecosystem approach

(f)
The ecosystem approach in a forested

ecosystem
Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay
The 240 000-km2 Dry Chiquitano Forest ecoregion has adopted an ecosystem-based framework and has highlighted
the importance of certain key factors in ecosystem management, including participation of local communities,
decentralization of decision making, setting priorities based on ecological integrity, and planning at multiple
temporal and spatial scales (Vides-Almonacid et al. 2008).
(g)
Improving water management using the

ecosystem approach in South America
Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay
The ecosystem approach has been applied to the management of water resources in the La Plata river basin. This
region is considered important for protection because of poverty, the presence of indigenous communities, and likely
effects of climate change in the area. Management approaches include integrated water resources management as a
key component (Bello et al. 2009; Forero 2008).
(h)
Applying the ecosystem approach in

the management of coastal and marine
protected areas
Chile
The ecosystem approach is being applied to improve the management of multiple-use marine and coastal protected
areas in Chile. Key factors that have been given attention are research, incorporation of local communities in
management of the ecosystem, and incorporation of the areas into national land-use plans (De Andrade 2008).
Payment for ecosystem services (PES)

(i)
Payment for ecosystem services for

watershed protection in Heredia
Costa Rica
To protect the water resources that originate in micro-watersheds in the hills above Heredia, the water authority
established a scheme to pay landowners in the upper watershed to reforest the land (US$1 000 per hectare per year
under a five-year contract), and to prevent cattle ranching close to the streams (US$100 per hectare per year for ten
years). A hydrological tariff, derived from fees charged to water authority customers, supports the scheme. Customers
pay approximately US$0.05 per m3 for the ecosystem services delivered by landowners (Jindal and Kerr 2007).
(j)
Sustainable financing
Trinidad and Tobago
The Green Fund of Trinidad and Tobago was established by the government under the Finance Act 2004, Part XIV
Green Fund Levy and is capitalized by a turnover tax on corporations operating in the country. The purpose of the
fund is to ensure that there is a sustainable source of financing available to support targeted efforts to conserve
biodiversity and promote ecosystem management in Trinidad and Tobago (UNEP 2011b).
Access and benefit sharing

(k)
National law on access and benefit sharing Under the Peruvian Law for the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity (Law 26839), the state and the
Peru
native and peasant communities participate in the protection and promotion of plant genetic resources, and the
knowledge, innovations and practices associated with those resources (UNEP 2003).
(l)
Access and benefit sharing in Central

The Central American Commission on Environment and Development has adopted a Central American Protocol on
America
Access to Genetic and Biochemical Resources and to the Associated Traditional Knowledge (UNEP 2003).
Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Panama
Other ways to enhance protected area effectiveness in the

region include:
advancing conservation in marine and freshwater protected
areas that are still largely under-represented;
effectively integrating indigenous and local communities
in protected area management, including, where relevant,
330
by promoting indigenous- and community-conserved areas

(Chapter 5);
promoting the links between conservation and development
goals, using land-use planning as a fundamental tool;
improving research capability and strengthening links between
research and decision-making frameworks (Table 12.3e); and
strengthening the capacity for managing protected areas

(Elbers 2011; Mora and Sale 2011; BirdLife International
2009; Cuartas 2008; Guarderas et al. 2008; McElhinny 2007;
Bennett and Mulongoy 2006; Oviedo 2006; Rivera et al. 2006;
Burke and Maidens 2004; Geoghegan and Renard 2002).
In addition, key instruments for protected area management
include ecotourism and sustainable tourism programmes;
balancing the relationship between conservation and
development through mechanisms such as payment for
ecosystem services, including for carbon dioxide (CO2) capture
and sequestration services and environmental stewardship
and usage fees (see below); and the selective extraction of
resources (UNEP 2010b; Eguren 2004). Measures such as tax
incentives, preservation easements, education, decentralized
administration, partnerships with international organizations
and outright land purchases may also encourage and promote
protected areas and associated corridors and linked landscapes.
Applying the ecosystem approach to biodiversity management
The ecosystem, or ecosystem-based, approach is increasingly
recognized as an important strategy in biodiversity management,
especially in the context of climate change (World Bank 2010).
According to the CBD, it is a strategy for the integrated
management of land, water and living resources that promotes
conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way (Box 12.4).
The ecosystem approach is not designed to replace other
management and conservation approaches, but rather to
complement and support them, for example sustainable forest
management, integrated river basin management, integrated
marine and coastal area management and sustainable fisheries
(Table 12.3f, g, h). In addition, approaches such as creating
protected areas, corridors or biosphere reserves and species
conservation programmes, as well as action under existing
national policy and legislative frameworks, can be integrated to
deal with complex ecological situations (Bianchi and Skjoldal
2008; Waltner-Toews et al. 2008; CBD 2004).
The ecosystem approach has been identified as a key policy
in Latin America and the Caribbean for two main reasons: it is
useful for managing water resources, wetlands and land, and in
developing payment for ecosystem services; and many pristine
ecosystems still exist with high conservation value (Andrade
Perez 2008). Because of their size, the Caribbeans small island
states also present excellent opportunities for implementing
the ecosystem approach, and could serve as case studies for
ascertaining its strengths and weaknesses.
Although there are several on-the-ground initiatives applying
an ecosystem approach in the region, this has often been done
on an ad hoc, single-project basis, which remains a challenge.
Such initiatives need to be better integrated into institutions,
including those concerned with sectors outside biodiversity
conservation, such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry and health.
More research is also needed (De Freitas et al. 2007) to support
the development of a monitoring and evaluation framework for
In Cuba, the ecosystem approach is being used to restore and improve

local crop varieties that are better adapted to the low-input conditions
of organic farming. Maria Pavlova/iStock
each of the principles of the ecosystem approach (CBD 2004). In

addition, issues such as illiteracy, land boundaries and the cost
of participatory processes all need to be considered in integrating
and assessing the impact of the approach in Latin America and
the Caribbean (Andrade Perez 2008).
Box 12.4 Key features of the ecosystem approach

to biodiversity management
The ecosystem approach goes beyond conservation and
promotes the sustainable use of resources with a focus on
equity, participation and decentralization. It can be applied
in a flexible manner depending on the social, economic,
environmental and cultural context. Its key features include:
emphasizing adaptive management;
fostering integration by accounting for all usable goods
and services and optimizing the mixing of their benefits;
involving other forms of knowledge, including indigenous
and local;
focusing on people, their society and their culture;
orientation to environmental and societal conservation;
applying a two-way approach top-down and bottom-up;
a long-term vision; and
considering goods and services as the product of a healthy
ecosystem and not as ends in themselves.
Source: Andrade Perez 2008
331
Monetary compensation provides a tangible incentive to

protect habitats and their biodiversity by providing sustainable
livelihoods (Table 12.3i); it also mitigates the initial needs that
drive unsustainable biodiversity resource use (Ferraro 2001).
As such, PES has the potential to increase employment and
equity (Montagnini and Finney 2011; Bovarnick et al. 2010).
This reduces poverty, since low-income groups and ecologically
sensitive land in the regions developing countries often
co-exist (Milder et al. 2010). Given that there is a strong link
between habitat protection, rehabilitation and a number of
ecosystem services such as water provision and purification,
coastal protection, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and
protection against soil erosion PES schemes bring multiple cobenefits to a range of sectors (WRI 2009).
Guatemala is recognizing wider land rights for indigenous communities

while strengthening access and benefit sharing through recent
advances in payment for ecosystem services. Holger Mette/iStock
Enhancing biodiversity conservation through payment for

ecosystem services
A number of options grounded in economic theory present
promising opportunities for both mainstreaming biodiversity
issues and reducing driving forces, while simultaneously
supporting development processes and promoting human
well-being. Among these is the payment for ecosystem services
or PES mechanism, which was largely pioneered in Latin
America and the Caribbean (Wunder 2007), and which is gaining
popularity worldwide as an effective approach to dealing with
biodiversity loss (UNEP 2010b; Pfaff et al. 2008).
In general terms, PES schemes or systems offer incentives,
usually monetary ones, to individuals to protect and ensure the
delivery of key ecosystem services at local, national and regional
levels. The mechanism can address many of the driving forces
of biodiversity loss in the region, especially habitat loss and
unsustainable land management, as it usually aims to protect
and/or rehabilitate natural vegetation. In addition it can support
many existing policies (Box 12.5).
Box 12.5 Payment for ecosystem services (PES) in

support of existing policies
PES can be used in conjunction with other Latin American
and Caribbean policies, for example:
protected areas;
integrated water management;
conservation and restoration of water-supplying
ecosystems;
sustainable forest management;
small-scale agro-ecological systems; and
recovery of degraded lands.
332
Payment for ecosystem services is not without challenges. Its

limited application (Redford and Adams 2009) and a lack of
information on economic valuation highlight the need to invest
more in research and furthering the scientific understanding
of local environmental conditions. Certain services cannot
be measured, however, and determining the seller of these
services is also difficult (Farley and Costanza 2010). Moreover,
finding buyers and mobilizing funding is the greatest challenge
to implementing PES. Coupling PES with innovative financing
mechanisms, however, could address this. Examples include
ring-fencing budget allocations for environmental protection, as
in the Programme for Forest incentives in Guatemala; earmarking
government taxes for environmental protection, such as Brazils
ecological value added tax; providing environmental funds like
Trinidad and Tobagos Green Fund (Table 12.3j); and setting up
public-private partnerships (FAO 2011; Dijk and Savenije 2009).
Access and benefit sharing
Latin America and the Caribbeans rich genetic resources are
important to local communities in sustaining their livelihoods,
and especially in providing food security. However, many genetic
resources are also the basis of commercial use and production. To
promote equity and safeguard the genetic diversity and associated
traditional/local knowledge within the regions countries, there has
been a growing interest in access and benefit sharing (Chapter 5).
Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru have developed
access and benefit-sharing legislation at the national level (Table
12.3k) and the Andean Community states and Central American
Commission on Environment and Development have done so at
the sub-regional level (Table 12.3l). At the national level, there
are two main groups of associated legislation (Glowka 1998):
framework laws on sustainable development, nature conservation
and biodiversity (Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru); and dedicated or
stand-alone national laws or decrees (Brazil). Access and benefitsharing considerations can also be incorporated into general
environmental framework laws, or existing laws and regulations
can be modified to address them, although this has not yet
occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (UNEP 2003).
The CBDs Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and
the Fair and Equitable Sharing of Benefits Arising from their
Utilization, adopted in October 2010, now provides a global

framework for improving legal certainty and transparency related
to access and benefit sharing (CBD 2011), and could help Latin
American and Caribbean countries overcome various problems
in implementing relevant policy. As of April 2012, 14 countries
in the region are signatories to the protocol (CBD 2011). To
maximize the advantages of access and benefit-sharing policies,
attention needs to be paid to several factors, including:
undertaking research to better understand and apply access
and benefit-sharing principles and the Nagoya Protocol in the
regional context;
enhancing human, technical and financial capacities;
clarifying legal definitions and interpretations;
understanding and dealing with the transboundary nature of
genetic resources;
protecting traditional knowledge; and
negotiating tangible benefits instead of focusing only on
access procedures (UNEP 2010a; CBD 2008).
Land use, land degradation and desertification
Pressure on land resources has increased in recent years

despite international goals to improve land management (Box
12.6; Chapter 3). To halt and reverse land degradation and
ensure renewable resources are used sustainably, policies
allowing productive activities with minimal impact on natural
ecosystems and their environmental services are required.
These include land-use policies that prevent inefficient or
inappropriate transformation for agriculture, livestock or illegal
crops (Grau and Aide 2008). Examples include sustainable forest
management, increasing efficiency and intensifying productivity
to reduce environmental impacts, improving waste management,
decreasing the amount of new land being cultivated, and
helping prevent conflicts due to land, water and other resource
shortages. At the same time, environmentally friendly productive
activities with tangible economic benefits for land owners and
environmental services for society need promotion. Finally,
degraded ecosystems need to be rehabilitated and their
sustainability ensured to restore the productivity chain that
supports ecological balance and social and economic well-being.
Box 12.6 Key facts about land conditions in Latin

America and the Caribbean
Since the 1960s, arable land has increased by 83 per cent in
South America, 46 per cent in Africa and 36 per cent in Asia,
coinciding with significant deforestation in all three regions
(IPSRM 2010).
In 2009, more than 280 000 Latin American and Caribbean
producers managed 23 per cent of the worlds organically
farmed land with the highest regional shares in the
Dominican Republic and Uruguay (Willer and Kilcher 2011).
In South America, the area of land used for agriculture
increased by 18 per cent during 19702009, while livestock
production grew by 31 per cent (FAOSTAT 2011).
stakeholder participation. Land-use planning considers a number

of inseparable elements: land, renewable and non-renewable
resources, and a coherent view of current and historic lands and
their uses, existing services, accessibility and cultural influences.
Land uses such as agriculture, agroforestry, livestock production,
industrial development and mining, among others, must also be
considered (Cardenas-Moller and Bianco 2011; ECLAC 2010a;
Weber 2009).
Land-use policies involving stakeholder participation, regulations
and financial instruments are necessary to prevent a number of
Based on a review of current and past experiences in Latin

America and the Caribbean, the three land-management policies
described in this section are considered the most favourable to
attain the goals set out in Paragraph 40b of the Johannesburg
Plan of Implementation (WSSD 2002). These are multi-scale landuse planning, sustainable agriculture and livestock production,
and the recovery of degraded lands. The climate change and
biodiversity sections deal with payment for ecosystem services
and sustainable forest management, while the water section
discusses policies related to integrated land management and
water-use plans.
Multi-scale land-use planning
Land-use plans take account of all the resources and dimensions
involved in the development process and help implement
integrated land-use management, water resource planning and
conservation priorities, while also encouraging inclusive, multi-
The pre-Hispanic cultures in the Lake Titicaca region of South America

practised weather-adapted agriculture, where suka kollus artificially
raised planting mounds separated by canals receive both moisture and
protection from heat. This practice has recently been revived. Jim Alfonso Alem
333
land-related conflicts, including transboundary controversies

over scarce resources between and within sectors and countries;
land tenure and titling issues for rural families where creating
cadastral and registration agencies helps create stability; and
the rights of minority groups such as indigenous communities
and women to land ownership. Furthermore, land-use planning
can be an effective mechanism to prevent resource depletion and
environmental degradation (Table 12.4a, b, c).
In a wider sense, land-use planning should also include marine
and coastal zones because of the interaction between land and
aquatic environments (Table 12.4d). According to UNEP-CEP
(2011b), land-based activities are the greatest threat to
Caribbean coastal and marine habitats. Likewise, the integrity of
marine and coastal ecosystems, which is linked to terrestrial well-
being, also affects social resilience, especially in terms of public

health and livelihoods.
Several countries have either implemented or are preparing land
administration plans, including national coastal management
acts (Loper et al. 2005; Cabeza 2002). Land administration
projects in Latin America are focused primarily on facilitating
a land market. Although projects have social equity and
environmental sustainability goals (Deininger and Bingswanger
1999), these are largely of secondary importance (IDB 2002). In
some countries, for example Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, advances
in land administration require improvement in the property
market infrastructure (World Bank 2001). Land tenure also needs
to be stabilized, especially in post-conflict situations such as
those of Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
Table 12.4 Land case studies in Latin America and the Caribbean
Multi-scale land-use planning
(a)
Economic and ecological zoning

Peru
Economic and ecological zoning in the San Martin region contributed to the development of the conceptual and
methodological basis for the National Framework for Land Use Planning. Zoning promotes the inclusion of disaster
risk management and climate change adaptation in the participatory process of its design and implementation
(Castillo 2011).
(b)
Sustainable mining
Cuba
In 2008, the State Council approved a mining policy that established principles designed to promote the
sustainable development of mining in Cuba by creating quality control systems and environmental protection
measures, regulating mine closures and determining the recovery of environmental liabilities, among others (ECLAC
2010a).
(c)
Land policies and community

participation
Bolivia, Brazil, Guatemala, Mexico,
Peru
Indigenous land management of traditional communal lands of the Bolivian Amazon has been developed to
improve the well-being of people living in rural and indigenous communities, and to help protect forest services
(Sabogal et al. 2008). Other initiatives involve community forest management plans in Oaxaca, Puebla and
Quintana Roo, Mexico; in the Maya Biosphere Reserve in El Petn, Guatemala; and in Amazonian communities in
Brazil and Peru (UNEP 2010b).
(d)
Regional marine ecological land-use

planning of the Gulf of Mexico and the
Caribbean Sea
Mexico
The definition of activities and land uses for this policy were based on three criteria: land suitability; the interests
of different stakeholders including tourism, fisheries, agriculture, maritime security and conservation; and other
significant issues identified on the basis of their recurrence, intensity or extent. An integrated assessment was
prepared that included the most significant interactions between terrestrial and marine ecosystems (SEMARNAT 2011).
Sustainable agriculture and livestock production
334
(e)
Agritourism: connecting sustainable

agriculture with tourism
Caribbean
AgroSandals, Jamaica, the Nevis Model of Hotel/Farmer Partnership, and the Tri-Lakes Project in Guyana aim for
sustainable agriculture while linking agriculture with tourism and culture, in association with the private sector,
community members and government agencies. Programmes have reported good returns: in Jamaica, for example,
farmers sales income increased more than 55 times in the first three years of the initiative, from US$60000 to
US$3.3 million (Harvey 2011).
(f)
Transition to organic agriculture

Cuba
While ensuring national food security under a trade embargo, Cubas transition to organic agriculture has also
had a positive impact on peoples livelihoods by guaranteeing a steady income for a significant proportion of the
population. Moreover, the lack of synthetic pesticides in agricultural production is likely to have a positive longterm impact on peoples well-being, since such chemicals are often associated with negative health implications
including some forms of cancer (UNEP 2011d).
(g)
Integrated silvo-pastoral ecosystem

management
Colombia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua
The Regional Integrated Silvo-pastoral Ecosystem Management Project is piloting the use of payment for ecosystem
services to induce the adoption of silvo-pastoral practices in degraded pastures in Colombia, Costa Rica and
Nicaragua. In Nicaragua, the area of degraded pasture fell by two-thirds, while pastures with high tree density
increased substantially, as did fodder banks and hedges. The project developed an environmental services index
and pays participants for net increases in points (Pagiola et al. 2007).
(h)
Sustainable agricultural practices

Argentina
The adoption of conservation tillage and less aggressive pesticides caused, respectively, a dramatic decrease in soil
erosion and contamination risk in Argentina throughout 19562005. The risk of water and wind-related erosion fell
considerably in response to the expansion of zero-tillage agriculture in the last two decades (Viglizzo et al. 2011).
(i)
Integrated crops and livestock with

zero tillage
Brazil
Various Brazilian organizations united to develop a project on integrated crop-livestock zero-tillage systems in
the Brazilian Cerrado. Rotating such annual crops as maize, soya and rice with no tillage allowed intensification
of land use, increased productivity per hectare, and reduced the need for clearing additional land for pasture or
arable land. Estimates indicate that this resulted in a reduction in clearance of 0.252.5 hectares for every hectare
involved in the project. Reported effects of integrating crops and livestock with zero tillage showed less use of
leaching herbicides, lower fertilizer use and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Landers 2007).
There are several challenges associated with land-use planning,

including the lengthy process of collecting land-use and
cadastral data, which requires information about legal titling
that is hampered by legal barriers. The often illegal nature of
historic land tenure processes, including forced displacement of
peasants resulting from civil conflict or corrupt but sophisticated
schemes, is another constraint (IDMC 2010; Springer 2006).
In addition, transaction costs may be a major obstacle to
registration, particularly for the poor (Barnes 2003). Finally,
land-use planning policies may discriminate against minority
groups such as indigenous and peasant communities, since
many land administration projects are based on a simple
territorial demarcation and a title issued in the name of the group
(Ankersen and Barnes 2003).
The ceding of subsoil rights in indigenous territories to such
outside economic interests as oil and mining companies
can result in major physical intrusions and habitat damage,
generated, for example, by the construction of infrastructure
and roads. The Xing River basin in Brazil is an example of the
successful protection of indigenous territory from deforestation
through land policies that include community participation (UNEP
2010b; UNEP et al. 2009; Sabogal et al. 2008).
Regional experiences show that it is much more important to
obtain general agreements on land policy direction than to
require, a priori, a technically perfect legal framework. New legal
frameworks have proven ineffective, as insufficient attention has
been paid to stakeholder discussions or the dissemination of
their rights (Barnes 2003).
In land-use policy making, it is necessary to distinguish between
small-scale and large-scale commercial agriculture. Out migration
and land sparing, a system under which some land is farmed
intensively to maximize yields while other land is protected as
a nature reserve, allow more land to be devoted to preserving
biodiversity and providing ecosystem services (Green et al.
2005), but small-scale agro-ecological systems appear to be a
good option for combining hunger alleviation and biodiversity
preservation. Perfecto and Vandermeer (2010) suggest using a
policy-making matrix that integrates agricultural and conservation
elements to boost small-scale agro-ecological options. Policymaking matrices that use a framework built around payment for
ecosystem services can significantly strengthen this approach.
Policies that promote organic agriculture, silvo-pastoral
practices, ecotourism and sustainable rural tourism, fall within
this category. Silvo-pastoral strategies such as planting trees
and shrubs in pastures, fodder banks or trees and shrubs
as hedges, induce farmers to increase practices that provide
ecosystem services improving biodiversity, sequestering
carbon and conserving water resources (Pagiola et al. 2007).
Policies fostering ecotourism including sustainable rural tourism
promote the optimal use of natural resources and respect for
socio-cultural diversity, which improves economic viability and
distributes benefits more equitably. Well planned rural tourism
Many Amerindian communities in Columbia are heavily dependent on

silvo-pastoral systems for their livelihoods. Bob BalestriiStock
can promote social development and equity, providing more

opportunities for vulnerable groups such as youth, women and
indigenous communities (COPLA 2009).
Examples of successful land-use planning are agritourism
initiatives in the Caribbean (Table 12.4e) (Harvey 2011); Cubas
transition to organic agriculture (Table 12.4f) (UNEP 2011a);
silvo-pastoral practices and PES in Colombia, Costa Rica and
Nicaragua (Table 12.4g) (Pagiola et al. 2007); and rural-based
community tourism in Guatemala and Nicaragua (COPLA 2009).
Land-use policies for large-scale commercial agriculture, which
occurs in Argentina and Brazil, should promote sustainability
through integrating existing knowledge with input-based farming
technology. Policy options include the adoption of agronomic
practices such as zero-tillage (Viglizzo et al. 2011), minimum
tillage, crop diversification, crop rotation and integrated pest
management, combined with strategic applications of fertilizers
and irrigation water, using low-impact pesticides and the
expansion of precision farming procedures (Table 12.4h, i).
These practices have had positive impacts in Argentina, where
public-private partnerships have been successful (Viglizzo et al.
2011); in Paraguays poultry industry where initiatives for cleaner
production have been effective; and in Uruguays environmentally
friendly rice cultivation (UNEP and MercoNet 2011).
Empirical evidence in Latin America and the Caribbean suggests
two ways of developing environmentally friendly livestock
production systems, regardless of the farming scale: first, by
increasing beef productivity through the dilution of maintenance
costs; and second, by integrating crops, pastures, fodder and
livestock production. The first case results in a significant reduction
in land, water, fossil fuels, feed consumption and outputs of
manure and greenhouse gases. In the second case, experience
with integrated crop rotation, livestock production and zero-tillage
operations in the Brazilian Cerrado allowed grain and meat to be
produced sustainably on the same lands, thus eliminating the
need to deforest more land (Landers 2007) (Table 12.4i).
335
Restoration of degraded lands

In addition to impacts on biodiversity and the economy, land
degradation has social consequences. These include increased
vulnerability to floods and dust storms; health risks such as
from vector-borne diseases associated with deforestation (Patz
and Norris 2004), and illnesses from contaminated sites; loss
of environmental services including water source recharge; and
decreased carbon sequestration and evapotranspiration. Thus,
the region should prioritize the restoration of degraded lands
(Box 12.7), which complements conservation and ecosystem
management policies oriented to climate change mitigation
and adaptation, reduces disaster risk, and helps maintain the
hydrologic cycle and water sources.
Coffee cherries on an organic farm in Nicaragua, where there is a

burgeoning movement to develop sustainable agricultural value chains
that improve farmers profits. Joel Carillet/iStock
There are examples of successful organic agriculture in most

Latin American and Caribbean countries (Table 12.4f), although
there is a need to harmonize policies, particularly those
related to market access and distribution. Many countries are
establishing regulations and standards for organic production
while a few are providing limited financial support to pay
certification costs during the conversion period (Willer and
Kilcher 2011). The current global market for organic production
has encouraged the development of standards, certification
processes and public-private partnerships to facilitate market
access to organic produce.
Access to micro and small-scale credit in poor rural communities
is necessary to ensure that land use is managed sustainably.
The enabling conditions that facilitate the expansion of
sustainable models of large-scale commercial farming generally
rely on access to modern technology, for example precision
and low-impact farming and information and communication
technologies; updated agronomic knowledge; the professional
capacity of farmers; good international prices; the financial
capacity of individual farmers and investment funds; and credits
to farmers cooperatives.
Box 12.7 Key facts on land degradation in Latin

America and the Caribbean
Land degradation, primarily by water erosion, salinization and
reduction of soil fertility, affects approximately 22 per cent
of the regions surface area (Bai et al. 2008).
Degradation of cropland in the regions drylands has
reached 28 per cent (Zika and Erb 2009).
336
All available land, particularly degraded or marginal areas,

needs to be used efficiently to satisfy the socio-economic and
environmental needs of current and future populations as well
as to conserve natural ecosystems. Given the environmental,
social and economic benefits of land, it is important to institute
restoration or rehabilitation policies. Land can simultaneously
generate profits through agriculture, livestock husbandry (Aguiar
and Roman 2007) or forestry, and maintain and purify water
sources, reduce the risk of floods and mudslides and improve
peoples living conditions (Rees et al. 2007). Given the high
costs associated with restoration projects, better economic
instruments are needed, including government commitments
that promote and finance these projects.
Restoring land and environmental services provides new
options for productive activities, reduces the vulnerability of
populations and decreases the conversion of natural ecosystems
to agriculture or pasture. Other commercial activities, such as
ecotourism, can also be encouraged. In addition to reclaiming
soil and accelerating forest regeneration, for example, the
biological corridor project of Nogal-La Selva in Costa Rica
(Montagnini 2001) represented an economic incentive for
local farmers, while the reforestation project in the Panama
Canal watershed reduced the costs of maintaining the canals
infrastructure (ACP 2007; BCEOM-TERRAM 2006). Restoring
degraded lands benefits both market-based and non-marketbased ecosystem services at multiple spatial scales.
Land restoration policies and action account for the specific
conditions of the site and the benefits expected. Effective
restoration requires setting specific and clear goals as part of the
planning process and ensuring that the parties compromised by
the recovery of degraded lands accept them. Thus, implementing
the policies requires effective participatory mechanisms that
include indigenous and other disadvantaged groups. For this
reason, certainty and legitimacy of land tenure are also required.
Climate change
Climate change is exacerbating many of Latin America and

the Caribbeans environmental challenges; it also threatens
development gains, poverty reduction and economic growth.
Although the region accounts for a relatively modest 12 per
cent of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions, it is already
experiencing the adverse consequences of climate change and

variability (De la Torre et al. 2009). As vulnerability to climate
impacts increases, addressing the underlying drivers of risk
becomes a top priority. Poverty, marginalization, exclusion
from decision-making processes, lack of opportunities, limited
access to credit, inadequate education, poor basic infrastructure,
inequity, insecure land tenure, and other factors external and
internal to the region, continue to exacerbate its vulnerability.
To address climate change, the region needs to commit to
the sustained implementation of international and regional
agendas, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC 1998, 1992),
and the Hyogo Framework for Action (ISDR 2005). It should also
commit to the sustainable environmental management of forests
and key ecosystems; energy efficiency and the development
of new, renewable energy sources; ecoagriculture; and the
transformation of transport systems, implemented in a socially
and environmentally responsible way by respecting peoples and
communities rights, and supported by international financial
and economic mechanisms (IISD 2010).
With the worlds highest percentage of urban dwellers, the
Latin America and Caribbean region faces many climate change
challenges in its large and growing cities, many of which are
located in higher-risk areas on low-lying coastal plains (World Bank
2011b). To build resilience among the segments of the population
most in need, municipal policies should be city-specific and work
in tandem with national and international efforts for mitigation and
adaptation (World Bank 2011b). Although the regions cities have
taken many initiatives on policies and activities both to mitigate
and adapt to climate change, these have focused mostly on the
former. It has been difficult to promote adaptation at the local level
without the necessary support from higher levels of government
and the international community. This has left a gap in the support
and funding of locally determined, locally driven adaptation efforts
that serve and work with those most at risk. The best opportunities
to adapt to climate change are linked with action to address the
underlying causes of vulnerability and respond to more than one
problem at a time (Hardoy and Lankao 2011).
The policy clusters described in this section advance progress
towards the internationally agreed UNFCCC goal (UNFCCC 1992
Article 3 Paragraph 13), selected to address climate change.
It emphasizes precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent
or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its
adverse effects.
Reducing the vulnerability of populations through efficient
adaptation
Implementing adaptation measures that consider economic,
social-ecological and political criteria is an immense challenge.
Fostering research programmes on the impacts of climate change,
deforestation and land-use change on the natural environment
and the social fabric are priorities, as are strengthening
evidence-based policy making and the appropriate institutional
infrastructure (De la Torre et al. 2009).
Box 12.8 Mainstreaming adaptation to climate

change in the Caribbean
Mainstreaming adaptation into policy development has
proved to be effective in approaching the common goal of
increasing resilience. In the Caribbean, for more than 15
years, the Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank,
CARICOM and other partners have supported a series
of policy-oriented adaptation programmes, namely the
Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change and
Mainstreaming Adaptation into Climate Change, both of
which have been completed. Currently ongoing are the
Special Programme for Adaptation to Climate Change:
Implementation of Adaptation Measures in Coastal Zones,
and Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change.
From this long-term effort, numerous reports from the wider
Caribbean have been produced, including sector-specific
policy recommendations for water resources, agriculture,
forestry, food security, tourism, fisheries and coastal zone
management, information and communication, and social
services such as health and education (CCCCC 2011).
Policies for adapting to climate change are critical for

strengthening natural capital management. This is especially
the case for managing changing water flows and improving
ecosystem resilience, strengthening direct protection against
climate-related threats in cases for which collective action is
needed, and strengthening technology transfer and knowledge
flows (De la Torre et al. 2009).
The following presents a more detailed analysis of the many
issues related to adaptation policy development in Latin America
and the Caribbean, structured as four policy groupings.
Strengthening ecosystem management for improving resilience:
some countries have made significant efforts to provide a
more solid methodological and analytical evidence base for
understanding the relationship between ecosystem health,
resilience and vulnerability. They have also developed economic
cost-benefit analyses of ecosystem policy options and their
potential in reducing the vulnerability of societies. Innovative
policies and financial mechanisms for delivery are also required,
as are sustainably resourced and multi-stakeholder capacity
building and active participation of local stakeholders in
implementing the process. Land-use planning and protected
areas are local mechanisms for managing ecosystem services
that include the concept of risk reduction (ISDR 2009).
The examples in Table 12.5 provide a combination of economic,
environmental and social policy options for climate change
adaptation based on improved ecosystem management.
Earlier sections on policies for sustaining water provision and
consumption, and on payment for ecosystem services are further
examples of these policy instruments.
337
Table 12.5 Climate change case studies

Strengthening ecosystem management
(a)
Using the Maya nut tree to increase tropical

agro-ecosystem resilience to climate change
Central America, Mexico
The promotion of community-based conservation of the Maya nut tree focuses on rural indigenous women
and children, and on increasing agro-ecosystem resilience through the support of different sectors (Buffle and
Vohman 2011).
(b)
An example of synergy: hydrographical

basins programme
Cuba
This programme brings together efforts on integrated environmental management; cleaner production, recycling
and reuse; reduction of pollution; enterprise management; natural resources protection and biodiversity access
and management; and introduction of environmental education at all levels (AMA et al. 2009).
(c)
Mangrove conservation and adaptation

Belize
Efforts have raised local awareness of mangrove habitat as an adaptive climate change management tool and
widened the scope of conservation effort through different community initiatives (WWF 2011).
(d)
Clean energy for marine conservation

Galpagos Marine Reserve, Ecuador
The Japan International Cooperation System Company has helped to plan the introduction of clean solar
energy systems in one of 13 islands that form the Galapagos archipelago (UNDP 2010a).
(e)
Participatory management for an

environmentally sensitive area
Trinidad
This project is a participatory process for the protection, development, management and use of the resources
of the Aripo Savannas Environmentally Sensitive Area over a 1015 year period (CANARI 2011).
Towards resilient infrastructure

(f)
Sustainable social housing

Brazil
The Sustainable Social Housing Initiative has brought sustainable building practices to social housing
programmes, including design criteria and construction practices (UNEP and UNOPS 2011).
(g)
Coastline protection
Barbados
The Barbados waterfront promenade (boardwalk) was built as an adaptation measure to protect 1.2 km of
coastline. The islands coastal resources support diverse ecosystems and the critical tourism industry (Toba 2009).
(h)
Disaster risk reduction and public policy

investments
Costa Rica, Peru
The Ministry of Finance in Peru introduced disaster risk reduction in the assessment of public investments
with a strong programme for capacity building. The initiative was replicated by the government of Costa Rica
(ISDR 2011).
Strengthening weather monitoring and forecasting tools

(i)
Early warning systems

Caribbean, Cuba,
Mexico
Forecasts of hydro-meteorological events, volcanoes, tsunamis and droughts have been implemented by
Cuba, Mexicos National Centre for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency
Management Agency (CDEMA), to enable populations to protect themselves from injury and disease
(CENAPRED 2011; Rubiera 2010).
(j)
Early warning, preparedness and risk

reduction
Central America
The aim of the Central American Early Warning System (SATCA) is to strengthen early warning systems across
disaster-prone Central America, to enhance humanitarian preparedness and build risk reduction capacities
among local and regional actors.
Strengthening social protection

(k)
Mitigation and adaptation tool for farmers

Central America
The Rainforest Alliances Climate Module assists farmers identify the risks and impacts of climate change
on their farms and communities, and to promote the adoption of good agricultural practices that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, increase carbon sequestration and enhance the capacity of farms to adapt to
climate change (Rainforest Alliance 2011).
(l)
Reducing deforestation in protected areas

Brazil State of Amazonas
The Bolsa Floresta programme focuses on reducing deforestation in protected areas using four mechanisms:
direct payment of grants to smallholder farmers in exchange for forest protection; investments in social
improvements in communities; payments to local associations to strengthen local organization and control
of the Bolsa Floresta programme; and payments to communities employing sustainable production methods.
The programme addresses broad social concerns, which is likely to make the strategy more sustainable in the
long term. The programme has reached 32 000 people (Amazonas Sustainable Foundation 2011).
(m)
Improving community resilience

Nicaragua
The Atencin a Crisis pilot project focuses on two interventions: vocational training and a productive
investment package to improve the resilience of poor rural households to natural risks and economic
downturns (World Bank 2011a).
(n)
Conservation and sustainable use of

biodiversity in the coffee-growing region
Colombia
The Colombian National Coffee Federation has provided local communities with basic infrastructure,
improving living conditions on productive agricultural farms. It has also set up a research centre to generate
appropriate, competitive and sustainable coffee production technology (Armenteras et al. 2005).
(o)
A model for community-based sustainable

ecosystem management
Bolivia
Chalaln Ecolodge is a community business focused on enjoyment of and in-depth learning about the
rainforest under the guidance of local indigenous people. It represents a new community business model that
integrates environmental issues into design and operation (UNDP 2010b).
(p)
Adaptation to rapid glacier retreat

Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru
Implemented by the Andean Community of Nations, pilot projects aim to demonstrate the costs and benefits
of adapting to rapid glacier retreat in the tropical Andes, and to generate a knowledge base that can then be
used to design projects in other vulnerable communities faced with similar challenges.
Encourage diversification of the energy matrix through renewable energy
338
(q)
A tender system for alternative energy

Brazil
Brazil has been encouraging renewable energy through energy auctions, which offer a range of sources such
as natural gas and hydro. In 2008, it obtained positive results for biomass, and in 2009 for wind energy, when
more than 1 800 megawatts of wind generation was traded (La Rovere et al. 2011; Szklo et al. 2005).
(r)
Energy guidelines
Uruguay
In 2006, Uruguay released its Energy Strategy Guidelines to accelerate the transition to renewable energy
sources and reduce dependence on oil. These guidelines promote the use of alternative energy sources,
especially biofuels, wind energy and biomass as an energy source for industry (PNUMA et al. 2008).
Table 12.5 Climate change case studies continued

Energy efficiency and low-carbon mobility
(s)
Rapid-transit buses
Colombia (also Ecuador, Chile, Mexico)
TransMilenio is a sustainable urban mass-transport system in the metropolitan area of Bogot, Colombia.
The project aims to shift the transport paradigm in urban areas from individual and private to public and
inclusive. It replaces the conventional transport system with a bus rapid-transit system, a dedicated track
for special buses. First Curitiba and Bogot, then Ro de Janeiro and Porto Alegre have implemented these
systems. Six other cities in Colombia, Guayaquil and Quito in Ecuador, Mexico City, and Santiago de Chile
have their own bus rapid-transit systems (Grtter Consulting 2006/2010; LIMA 2010; WRI 2010, 2008; Det
Norske Veritas 2006).
(t)
Electricity saving
Brazil
The National Electrical Energy Conservation Programme (PROCEL) is a labelling and reward programme,
created in 1985, consisting of a number of sub-programmes in industry, sanitation, education, construction,
public buildings, municipal action, promotion of information, technological development and dissemination
of experiences and successes (Szklo et al. 2005).
(u)
Transition to energy-efficient lighting

Cuba
Cuba introduced the Cuban Energy Saving Programme (PAEC) in 1997. During the course of just under a
decade, less efficient incandescent light bulbs were replaced free of charge with compact fluorescent ones
(UNEP 2011c). In 2004, the energy efficiency programme, Energy Revolution, was introduced, under which
household appliances throughout the country have been replaced with more efficient ones at subsidized
prices (Revolucin Cubana 2011).
Towards resilient infrastructure: in light of the risks posed

by extreme weather events, reducing the vulnerability of
infrastructure systems should be a central objective of climate
change adaptation policy. The region has a wide range of
potential policy instruments addressing these concerns, the
most cost effective and efficient of which rely on enforcing
sustainable building standards (Table 12.5f) and relocating
vulnerable populations. Large-scale projects to build or replace
infrastructure in the coming years present a tremendous
opportunity to ensure that physical infrastructure and landuse systems are resilient in a changing climate. The Barbados
boardwalk is an example (Table 12.5g).
There is also significant opportunity to improve the cost
effectiveness and sustainability of climate-resilient infrastructure
investments by more systematically considering ecosystembased approaches as a component of comprehensive
Figure 12.6 Common ground for sustainability

Environmental
sustainability
Resilience
Vulnerability
Disaster risk
reduction
Climate change
adaptation
Development
Increasing resilience and decreasing vulnerability are universal goals that
lie at the heart of, and are common to, development, environmental
sustainability, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
This common ground oers many entry points for integrated intervention.
infrastructure adaptation strategies (Henstra and McBean 2009).

Another strategy is to integrate disaster risk reduction concepts
and methodologies in public investments, as the governments of
both Peru and Costa Rica have done (Table 12.5h).
Strengthening weather monitoring and forecasting tools: early
warning systems, one of the main branches of disaster risk
reduction, include the monitoring and forecasting of impending
events (UNISDR 2006). A number of key intergovernmental
organizations work to further early warning policy at the subregional level under the Hyogo Framework for Action and
through the Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Among them are the following: the Centre for Natural Disaster
Prevention and Coordination (CEPREDENAC) in Central America;
the Andean Committee for Disaster Awareness and Prevention
(CAPRADE); and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management
Agency (CDEMA); as well as humanitarian networks such as the
recent REDHU (Humanitarian Assistance of MERCOSUR). Cuba,
Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean small islands have
implemented weather monitoring and forecasting tools that
protect populations from injury and disease (Table 12.5i, j).
Although the regions early warning systems lessen the loss of
life, decrease injuries and mitigate against property damage,
the World Meteorological Organization stresses the need
to re-evaluate national and local emergency preparedness
and response plans, which should be based on hazard and
vulnerability mapping. It also stresses that countries should
strengthen their monitoring and forecasting infrastructure and
the skills of technical agencies while improving access to data
and technology; strengthen dissemination channels that link
national early warning systems to communities focusing on
cultural and community needs; and address sustainability issues
on the basis of available resources (WMO 2009).
Adaptation policies for social resilience: decreasing vulnerability
while increasing resilience is central to development,
environmental sustainability, climate change adaptation and
339
services (ISDR 2009) as well as technological alternatives.

Examples of good policy instruments are the regions agroforestry
systems and the Rainforest Alliances Climate Module, which
fosters the adoption of good agricultural practices to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance the capacity of farms
to adapt to climate change in Central America (Table 12.5k)
(Rainforest Alliance 2011).
Households, communities and the larger society are increasingly
adopting approaches that protect them against the negative
impacts of climate change. These include good public policies,
such as providing public health services, education, social
protection schemes, and supporting active and efficient civil
society organizations or government agencies, a solid and well
maintained infrastructure, good governance and healthy public
finances (Verner 2011).
In designing its REDD+ programme, Panama is exploring various

scenarios to capture the environmental and social benefits of REDD+
that go beyond carbon. Vilainecrevette/iStock
disaster risk reduction (Figure 12.6). Policy efforts can be

integrated around this central challenge (GEF 2011).
Climate change adaptation policies based on social inclusion
embrace challenges and opportunities associated with addressing
the needs of all segments of the regions population. They are
particularly sensitive to the most vulnerable, such as the rural and
urban poor and indigenous peoples with traditional lifestyles.
The regions rural households depend heavily on agriculture.
Thus, adaptation strategies for coping with the impacts of climate
change on agricultural productivity and food security among poor
rural households need to include access to such key elements
as land, labour, fertilizers, irrigation, infrastructure and financial
Box 12.9 Brazils Bolsa Verde

This national-level strategy within the purview of the Brasil
Sem Miseria programme envisions the distribution of
funds to families living in extreme poverty who promote
environmental conservation in the areas where they live
and work. Coordinated by the Ministry of Environment, the
programme includes environmental capacity building in
forest management. Now in its initial stages, the Bolsa Verde
has the goal of benefiting nearly 73 000 small-farm families
and other traditional communities living in conservation units
and land-reform settlements that contain important forest
resources (Planalto 2011).
340
There are examples of ecologically oriented social policy in

Brazil, including Bolsa Verde (Box 12.9), which provides funds
to the very poor who work towards environmental conservation,
and the State of Amazonas Bolsa Floresta programme (Table
12.5l) (Gebara 2010; May and Millikan 2010). Other examples
of policies that increase social resilience come from Bolivia,
Colombia, Nicaragua and Peru (Table 12.5m, n, o, p).
Promoting emissions reduction through sustainable forest
management, native forest protection and rehabilitation
Maintaining existing forests can be one of the most efficient and
cost-effective options for mitigating CO2 emissions, as can be seen
in Brazil, Central America and Mexico (UNEP et al. 2010a; Brner
and Wunder 2008; Kanninen et al. 2007). Protecting and restoring
native forests vitally important in sustaining the livelihoods and
cultural heritage of many Latin American and Caribbean peoples
is promoted through such sustainable forest management
strategies and results-based payment schemes as REDD+ (Cerbu
et al. 2011) or the recently created Amazon Fund in Brazil (MMA
2008). Such strategies should focus on carefully integrating
and providing benefits to rural and indigenous communities, as
there are strong potential synergies with efforts to protect and
rehabilitate forest resources (Chhatre and Agrawal 2010; Pereira
2010; Stickler et al. 2009). Policy action can rely on a variety of
instruments, including payment for ecosystem services, publicand private-sector engagement or command and control, as such
approaches can make REDD+ more effective in curbing greenhouse
gas emissions (Ezzine-de-Blas et al. 2011). Perus Forest
Conservation Programme (MINAM 2011), Bolsa Verde of Brazil
(Box 12.9), as well as environmental services certificates, payment
for ecosystem services and forest credits in Costa Rica (FONAFIFO
programme) are examples of the regions forest conservation
policy instruments (UNEP 2010b; Kanninen et al. 2007).
Successful efforts at knowledge generation, long-term policies
on forest management, and native forest protection and
restoration schemes typically strive to provide better information
on the value of forest functions and products; strengthen
multi-stakeholder involvement; create stronger links between
legal, social, environmental, economic and technological tools;
Box 12.10 Energy in Latin America and the

Caribbean
Between 50 and 65 million people live without electricity.
Electrification rates in areas of Bolivia, Honduras and
Nicaragua are below 30 per cent.
26 per cent of the regions greenhouse gas emissions is
CO2 from energy generation.
23 per cent of the regions energy comes from renewable
sources, primarily water, fuelwood and sugarcane
products.
Hydropower generation increased fivefold between 1970
and 2009.
Several countries have developed regulatory mechanisms
for renewable energy.
Source: ECLAC 2011; UNEP and NEF 2010; De la Torre et al. 2009; Samaniego et al. 2008
and critically evaluate the effectiveness of their objectives by

continuously monitoring greenhouse gas emissions reduction
and local sustainable development (Corbera and Schroeder
2011; Thompson et al. 2011; Cherrington et al. 2010; Betts et al.
2008; Cortner 2000).
Encouraging diversification of the energy matrix
International prices play a decisive role in defining Latin America
and the Caribbeans policies related to fossil fuels. Renewable
energy sources have been developed to address growing energy
needs (Box 12.10), with hydroelectric projects the preferred
energy investment.
Renewable energy sources are a positive alternative to fossil
fuels; nevertheless, renewable energy projects can affect the
environment and the livelihoods of local communities and, as a
result, need to be planned carefully. Given the regions diverse
potential for renewable energy biomass, solar, wind, wave
and geothermal the policy cluster in this section proposes the
introduction of renewable sources to the energy matrix.
The benefits of renewable energy sources include:
the decentralization of investment towards less developed
regions, which helps create jobs (for qualified personnel),
capacity building and technology transfer (Edenhofer et al.
2011; De la Torre et al. 2009; Sims et al. 2007; Szklo et al.
2005);
a cost-effective alternative to expensive grid extensions
(Jacobson and Delucchi 2011); La Rovere et al. 2011); and
great potential to lower emission costs effectively (Sims
et al. 2007; Szklo et al. 2005), thereby reducing energy
dependence and positively affecting trade balances.
The suggested policies combine long-term feed-in tariffs with
subsidies and tax incentives as ways to provide investment and
financial support for the supply chain of electricity generated
from renewables, including the transformation of raw materials,

manufacturing, and installation of components and systems.
Depending on the policy and regulatory mechanism, renewable
energy may increase consumers energy costs in the short term.
However, income-specific tariffs financed by reallocating counterproductive subsidies for non-renewable sources can often help to
balance this distortion. If, however, oil prices fall, the opportunity
cost may decrease to levels that might not cover costs. This can
be addressed by introducing quota-based incentive programmes
and long-term contracts with stable prices (De la Torre et al.
2009; Guzowsky and Recalde 2008). Adopting policies that
subsidize the use of renewable sources in terms of installed
capacity (kilowatts), or pay per kilowatt hour generated and sold,
can help to improve renewable energy. Likewise, mechanisms
such as green certificates, research and development subsides,
internalization of external costs and environmental taxes can
foster an increase in the share of renewable energy sources in the
energy matrix (Guzowsky and Recalde 2008).
Policies involving smart grids and decentralized power
generation have the potential to promote greater generation,
transport and distribution efficiency and to simultaneously scale
up renewables, specifically solar and biomass. Complementarily,
transboundary cooperation and integration in the energy
sector have been shown to increase electricity supply, widen
coverage and enhance system functionality across the region.
The Renewable Energy Observatory of Latin America, the Energy
and Climate Change Partnership for the Americas and the
Mesoamerican Electric Interconnection are examples of policy
strategies related to regional cooperation in the energy sector.
The Tender System for Alternative Renewable Energies in Brazil
and the Energy Strategy Guidelines from Uruguay (Table 12.5q, r)
encourage diversification of the energy matrix.
Enhancing efficiency and low-carbon mobility
These policy options aim to reduce energy demand in the residential
sector and transport systems while providing more effective
and expanded energy distribution to the population. Financial
instruments, such as cap-and-trade systems and carbon taxes,
funds for research and development and compliance instruments
might be adopted as part of the same strategy. A proposed
reorganization of public transport systems would improve the
efficiency of fossil-fuel use and road space, and change the
paradigm from individual and private to public and inclusive.
Related policy strategies foster the use of minimum standards
of energy efficiency for electrical appliances (lighting, cooling
and heating) and individual vehicles (fuel efficiency standards
and the promotion of hybrid cars); and the adoption of energy
efficiency stamp programmes and specific nationally appropriate
mitigation action. To this end, it is essential to combine public
financing instruments, market initiatives and specific policies
for research and development, as well as technology transfer
to enhance the international transfer of resources associated
with new technologies. Table 12.5 (s, t, u) provides examples of
associated policy options.
341
The main benefits of these strategies will be realized over the

long term. Some studies reveal that energy efficiency policies
have usually reduced implementation costs (Mckinsey and
Company 2009; Mckinsey Global Institute 2008a, 2008b,
2007). Furthermore, these policies can help reduce the negative
impacts on human health by improving air quality; decrease
external energy dependency; increase the reliability of power
supply; control demand growth with the potential to reduce
energy consumption by 2025 per cent (ECLAC 2010b); increase
productivity and employment; increase the efficiency and
competitiveness of domestic energy-intensive industry (Romm
1999); and diminish congestion in cities.
compartmentalized approaches by becoming more integrated

and cross-sectoral in nature (UNEP 2009; Persson 2004). This
chapter has presented clusters of policies that are believed to
have strong co-benefits. An assessment of the policies in the
clusters deemed them to be the most co-dependent and mutually
supportive policies required to achieve the internationally agreed
goals chosen for each thematic issue.
Moreover, in a number of instances the policies or policy clusters
associated with certain themes were underscored as benefiting,
or being strongly linked with, other policies and environmental
themes. Apart from being advantageous to the environment,
these policies have positive socio-economic and political
impacts. In addition to biodiversity management, policies
promoting payment for ecosystem services, for example, are used
across a number of issues and in almost all sectors, including
land, water and climate change. Policies that focus on integrated
management of water resources or the ecosystem approach can
also benefit other sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry
and land. Many of the climate change policies will ultimately
co-benefit the management of land, water and biodiversity
resources. Policy makers may find that understanding the links
and co-benefits is useful in determining how to maximize the
efficiency of existing policies or measures, and in prioritizing the
development and implementation of new ones.
In conjunction with its residential energy efficiency policies, Latin

America and the Caribbean has demonstrated the potential to
further expand the green design and building market, especially
for social housing. One exemplary effort is the government of
Mexicos This is Your House initiative and the National Housing
Commissions associated Green Mortgage Programme (Comisin
Nacional de Vivienda or CONAVI). The government of Brazil is
developing initiatives in this vein through the Ministry of Cities
planning instruments within the framework of its Multiannual
Plan for Decent Living.
Co-benefits and links between policy options and

environmental priorities
To address the complexity of environmental issues,

environmental policy making is evolving to transcend traditional,
It is beyond this chapters scope to provide an in-depth analysis

of all possible links and co-benefits, but policy makers may find
Table 12.6 Links and co-benefits across selected policies

Water
(WSSD 2002)
Paragraph 26c
Biodiversity
Diversity (CBD 1992)
Article 10
Land use and land

degradation
2002) Paragraph 40b
Climate change
Article 3 Paragraphs 13
Oceans and seas

The Jakarta Mandate of the
CBD (CBD 1997)
Integrated
water resources
management
Efficient, cost-effective
and sustainable use of
resources and capabilities;
reduces water-related
conflicts; increases
stakeholder participation
Protects watershed
habitats; offers potential
benefits to biodiversity
by protecting freshwater
species
Maintains water supply to

key ecosystems, reducing
the risk of degradation; can
help to ensure a sustainable
water supply for agriculture
Increases resilience of
water supply to climatic
changes; reduces the
vulnerability of agricultural
activities to water-related
climate change impacts
Can help to minimize

saltwater intrusion
in coastal zones; can
promote the sustainable
supply of water to coastal
areas
Enhancing
biodiversity
conservation
through payment
for ecosystem
services (PES)
Protects watersheds,
which can promote
a sustainable water
supply and provide water
purification services
Reduces economic
drivers of biodiversity
loss; protects
ecosystems and species
Reduces economic drivers

of land-use change in areas
where applied; can be
used for rehabilitation of
degraded lands
Maintains ecosystems
that provide carbon
sequestration services;
can potentially reduce
carbon emissions caused
by deforestation
Can help to maintain

critical ecosystems such as
mangroves and coral reefs;
can help to protect coastal
and marine species
Multi-scale landuse planning
Protects aquifers and

terrestrial areas, ensuring
quality delivery of
water-related ecosystem
services
Reduces the impacts

of land-use change in
biodiverse regions and
habitats
Brings greater coherence

to, and management of,
different and competing
land uses; reduces land
degradation
Reduces emissions from

deforestation; increases
the energy efficiency of
urban areas
Can help to reduce the

impact of development on
coastal ecosystems; very
closely linked to integrated
coastal zone management
Managing
emissions
reduction from
land-use change:
forest management,
native forest
protection and
recovery
May help to improve

watershed condition,
and contribute to water
provision
Forest protection
and recovery reduces
terrestrial habitat
losses of key fauna and
maintains supporting
ecosystem services for
flora
Protecting forest ecosystems

reduces the risk of
desertification and ensures
the delivery of supporting
services, such as soil
retention, that mitigate the
forces of desertification and
degradation
Safeguards existing
carbon stocks; improves
carbon sequestration
capacity
Can protect mangroves as

existing carbon stocks; can
help to reduce emissions
from wetlands
Policy clusters
342
Table 12.6 a useful a guide to the type of assessment that may be

undertaken to link between and across environmental policies.
CONCLUSIONS
Latin America and the Caribbeans ecosystems and associated

natural capital are important to both the regions countries
and to the entire planet. However, persistent negative
environmental and related socio-economic trends are a
clear indication that the measures so far established and
implemented to protect them at national, sub-national or
supra-national levels are insufficient to address either the
rate or scale of conversion and consumption prevalent within
the region. As a result, Latin American and Caribbean countries
continue to face such issues as poverty, inequity and social
conflict related to environmental quality.
Throughout this chapter, consideration has been given to
policies, approaches and instruments that have demonstrated
the potential to improve sustainability in the region, especially
for the issues deemed of highest regional priority.
The most salient point arising from the assessment of
policy options is that strong environmental governance is
a cornerstone for ensuring the success of policies geared
at improving sustainability. Without strong governance
frameworks to support environmental decision making, efforts
to ensure greater environmental sustainability are unlikely to be
effective. The following factors were identified as fundamental
for strengthening governance frameworks:
adequate financial resources;
access to scientific research and information;
environmental education and the development of an
environmental culture;
the standard governance principles and values of
transparency, accountability, equity, sustainability and
inclusive participation of all stakeholders; and
continuity in political systems.
The current limited impact of policies addressing environmental
trends also highlights the need to emphasize the root causes
that drive change throughout the region. Too often, policies
tend to focus on the direct pressures affecting ecosystems
and their services, because these are the best understood or
they are easiest to deal with. However, until policies begin to
address some of the deeper, underlying causes of environmental
degradation or drivers as defined in Chapter 1 countries are
unlikely to meet the goals and targets set out in international,
regional and national agreements. There is, thus, a need to invest
more in understanding these drivers and the ways they work
together. Greater integration of environmental considerations
into broader development processes is also needed.
The thematic issues covered have highlighted the
interconnectedness of, and links between and among
environmental issues. Most of the policy clusters are likely to
benefit multiple sectors, once properly implemented. Thus, a
close examination of cross-sectoral benefits is an important
The full effects of decisions taken, or not taken, today will affect the
opportunities available to young people and their future families. The
Brundtland Commission summed this up in its definition of sustainable
development: satisfying the needs of the present generation without
compromising the chance for future generations to satisfy theirs.
Panama Verde Association, Ennio Arcia
strategy for policy-makers to apply when considering the

priorities and trade-offs associated with implementing
a policy or a cluster of policies.
This chapter suggests that existing policies, mechanisms and
institutional frameworks at the sub-national, national and
regional levels in Latin America and the Caribbean offer a good
starting point for strengthening environmental management. In
many instances, it is not necessary to reinvent policies and their
implementation, or to continue adding to the already saturated
landscape of policies. Rather, what is required is a closer
examination of existing policies and institutions to see how
better to enable and strengthen them to serve more effectively.
This approach could help to circumvent the long, sometimes
onerous, processes required to build policies and/or new
institutions from the ground up, and could accelerate the rate
at which countries can work towards meeting internationally
agreed goals.
Finally, cooperation is an important element in improving
sustainability in the region. Cooperation between and among its
countries would facilitate the sharing of information, expertise
and technology transfer the lack of which may currently limit
countries in moving to more sustainable paths of development.
It could also help to improve the management of ecosystems
and species, which commonly cross national boundaries.
Cooperation at a global level is also important to ensure that
the regions natural capital is maintained and shared in a
sustainable and equitable manner.
343
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C H A P T E R
samxmeg/iStock
North America
13
Coordinating lead authors: Jane Barr and James Dobrowolski

Lead authors: John Campbell, Philippe Le Prestre, Lori Lynch and Marc Sydnor
Contributing authors: Robert Adler, Jos Etcheverry, Alexander Kenny,
Catherine Hallmich (GEO Fellow), Jim Lazar, Russell M. Meyer, Robin Newmark,
Janet Peace, Julie A. Suhr Pierce and Stephen Yamasaki
Principal scientific reviewer: Dork Sahagian
Chapter coordinators: Jason Jabbour and Ashbindu Singh
349
Main Messages
350
350
Policies and innovative market-based instruments

are becoming more successful in improving
environmental conditions in North America when
they work in concert and in a political environment
that allows for sound implementation. For example,
the US Clean Air Act includes a cap-and-trade
market mechanism to reduce sulphur dioxide (SO2)
emissions that costs less for each unit reduced than
traditional environmental regulation. In addition, it
is estimated that the Clean Air Acts direct benefit to
human health and the environment will reach almost
US$2 trillion by 2020, compared to the US$65 billion
implementation cost. In Canada, Ontarios Green
Energy and Green Economy Act supports a feed-in
tariff that has contributed to the growth in renewable
energy; wind production in Ontario, for example,
increased from 15 megawatts in 2003 to more than
1100 megawatts in 2009.
Conservation Reserve Program also pays farmers

to withdraw land from production in order to
restore soils, providing benefits estimated at
US$1.3 billion per year, excluding carbon
sequestration, ecosystem protection and other
less easily quantified benefits.
Pricing externalities and integrated land

management have shown the potential to increase
the sustainability of land-use practices in North
America. Governments can efficiently diminish
environmental impacts by paying land managers
for implementing best management practices
such as riparian buffers, reduced tillage and
reduced fertilizer application. In the United States,
taxes and other incentives have increased the
total area conserved by local, state and national
land trusts to almost 15 million hectares, while
payment for ecosystem service programmes, such
as farmland preservation programmes that bring
together the various benefits to society of farmland
and agricultural production, have permanently
preserved another 92million hectares. The US
Increasing renewable energy as a part of the total

primary energy supply provides multiple benefits.
Case studies from states and provinces in North
America indicate that a comprehensive policy
approach leads to rapid expansion of renewable
energy production. However, development across
jurisdictions has been uneven and current policy
regimes are not adequate to realize the necessary
paradigm shift to achieve a sustainable energy
system. This shift will lead to significant reductions
in greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing
renewable energy production is an integral part of
this transition. Research shows that by increasing
renewable energy deployment globally, up to 85 per
cent of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could be
avoided by 2050 (IPCC 2011).

The integrated watershed approach, in combination

with technological instruments and economic
incentives, has proved to be effective in addressing
some complex water resource challenges in North
America. Currently, the United States and Canada
administer this approach through initiatives at the
bi-national, regional or state/provincial levels rather
than nationally. The Great Lakes and St Lawrence
Cities Initiative, a cross-jurisdictional programme,
has successfully increased water efficiency and
reduced demand across the Great Lakes region.
INTRODUCTION
As previously indicated, GEO-5 shifts the GEO focus from

identifying environmental problems to identifying solutions that
governments can then prioritize. This chapter provides examples
of a number of policy options and market mechanisms that have
shown some success in improving environmental conditions
in North America. They are organized by priority environmental
theme and their success is related to how they may have
helped to speed up the attainment of selected international
environmental goals.
The priority themes and related global goals for the North
American region of Canada and the United States were chosen
during two regional GEO consultations (Table 13.1). In addition
to the four priority issues of environmental governance, land
use, freshwater and energy, this chapter also addresses the
overarching theme of climate change, which is discussed within
each of the four thematic sections.
Subsequently, the chapter reviews existing policy approaches,
institutional arrangements and market mechanisms related to
environmental and natural resources management. The aim is
to identify relatively successful policy options that are currently
being implemented to address each of the priority issues, and
that would also address the related internationally agreed
goals. To single out those with most potential to speed up the
attainment of the associated goals, the resulting options were
subjected to the following criteria, with policies selected if they
met some, but not necessarily all, of these criteria:
responds to, and/or reinforces or fosters interactions and
synergies among the priority issues, policy options, regions
and/or actors;
has the potential for replication elsewhere;
has the potential for scale-up;

addresses drivers and pressures rather than end-of-pipe
solutions;
focuses on transboundaryaspects of the issues and regional
solutions;
can operate as part of a cluster of policies that, if implemented
together, are more beneficial than the sum of the separate
policies.
Clusters of policy instruments were selected for each of the four
areas, and to further refine the assessment, a select number
of policies deemed to be the most successful were analysed
according to their benefits and drawbacks, the perceived tradeoffs of implementing them, and whether their effectiveness could
be measured by any specific indicators. In addition, a number
of case studies were identified to illustrate how the policies and
instruments work in different contexts.
Ultimately, the policies selected are the result of the appraisal
process involving a review of the literature and government
data, multi-stakeholder consultations and expert opinion.
Although the survey was thorough, the policy options were those
that could be gleaned by this process and do not represent an
exhaustive and comprehensive search; neither do they reflect
relative importance compared to those that were not selected.
Whether the policy would be effective in a different context
and on a different scale is uncertain: for many policies, direct
causal evidence of effectiveness is limited. The success of policy
instruments depends on their historical, political, cultural,
economic and social context. Moreover, each instrument should
be evaluated relative to its environmental effectiveness across
sectors; its politico-administrative effectiveness in terms of ease
of environmental monitoring and validity for decision making;
Table 13.1 Priority themes and related global goals

Nusa Dua Declaration (UNEP
GC 2010) Paragraph 13
We acknowledge that the advancement of the concept of a green economy in the context of sustainable
development and poverty eradication can significantly address current challenges, deliver development
opportunities and multiple benefits for all nations.

(JPOI) (WSSD 2002) Paragraph 40b
Develop and implement integrated land management and water-use plans that are based on sustainable use of
renewable resources and on integrated assessments of socio-economic and environmental potential.
Freshwater
(JPOI) (WSSD 2002) Paragraph 26c
Improve the efficient use of water resources and promote their allocation among competing uses in a way
that gives priority to the satisfaction of basic human needs and balances the requirement of preserving
or restoring ecosystems and their functions, in particular in fragile environments, with human domestic,
industrial and agriculture needs, including safeguarding drinking water quality.
Land use
Develop and implement integrated land management and water-use plans that are based on sustainable
use of renewable resources and on integrated assessments of socio-economic and environmental
potential.
Energy
With a sense of urgency, substantially increase the global share of renewable energy sources with the
objective of increasing its contribution to the total energy supply.
North America
351
states and provinces or municipalities, as well as to regional

transborder cooperation. The latter is extensive and continues
to expand, and its dynamics are further supported by the
Commission for Environmental Cooperation, which oversees
the environmental accord of the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA).
The examples of policy options on environmental governance
given in the following pages are suggested as ways of helping
to address these current challenges. In addition, they could
help speed up the attainment of Paragraph 13 of the Nusa Dua
Declaration, which proposes advancing the green economy, and
of paragraph 40b of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation,
which charges decision makers to develop and implement
integrated land management and water-use plans.
Freshwater
Glacier-fed Portage Lake in south-central Alaska. Dave Hughes/iStock
its contribution to international goals and commitments; and

its political feasibility. Whether there are resources adequate to
implement a policy, what policy options can be most successfully
applied in each region to help accelerate achievement of
internationally agreed goals, and the potential for replication,
scale-up and transfer are all research questions about which few
rigorous studies, if any, exist.
North America is considered a global economic leader, although
changes in regional demographics, rapidly emerging global
economies and resource constraints all challenge the regions
provision of public goods and services. At the same time,
fragmented governance, policy instability, lack of clear targets
and science policy, and the dilemma of whether to address
global issues rather than seeking local solutions hampers the
achievement of environmental goals (Chapter 1).
Since freshwater provides ecosystem services that are central to

human health, it is critical to ensure a continued good-quality
supply. This chapter provides a number of policy options to
illustrate ways of speeding up the achievement of Paragraph 26c
of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, which stipulates
that the efficient use of water resources is to be improved and
human needs and ecosystem requirements balanced.
Land use
Environmental governance in North America is best characterized

as multi-faceted, partly reflecting the nature of the federal
political systems, ideological flux, evolving socio-economic
constraints, and the dynamics of environmental issues as well
as the knowledge associated with them. Federal governments
are no longer the primary leaders in setting the policy agenda
or devising innovative policy instruments, yet theyremain
essential to the ultimate success of those policies, help ensure
harmonization across jurisdictions and prevent the development
of environmental inequities. In addition, there is a strong
tendency to favour market-based instruments because of early
successes, and to overlook traditional regulatory instruments.
Finally, relative federal disengagementhas opened the door to
policy initiatives and innovations at the sub-national levels of
352
The United States and Canada respectively contain 6 and 5

per cent of global renewable water resources, ranking third
and fourth overall among nations (FAO 2011). Because of its
relative high quality and abundance, water in North America
is often taken for granted, although more recently there is
recognition of a looming water crisis. Freshwater issues that
remain a challenge in some parts of the region include droughts
and floods (Cayan et al. 2010; Easterling 2000), eutrophication
(Smith et al. 2006), dams and river fragmentation (Chapter 4),
saltwater intrusion (Barlow and Reichard 2010), contamination
caused by hydraulic fracturing for natural gas extraction (Kargbo
et al. 2010), non-point source pollution from agricultural (Ritter
and Shirmohammadi 2001; Novotny 1999) and urban run-off
(NRC 2008). Climate change may exacerbate these problems by
altering both water supply and demand (Vrsmarty et al. 2010,
2000; Bates et al. 2008).
Land use is a priority issue in North America because it presents

both significant environmental concerns and great potential for
sustainable development. The natural resource and agricultural
sectors contribute significantly to employment and wealth
generation; for example, more than 2million people in the
United States work in or support the forestry and agriculture
industries (BLS 2011), and in Canada, gross domestic product
(GDP) for agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting totalled
US$24.7 billion in 2010 (Industry Canada 2011). In addition,
citizen engagement and peoples high level of attachment to
natural areas have moved land use up on the political agenda.
These and other factors, such as fossil fuel extraction and
urban development, apply significant pressure on land, often
resulting in conflicts over its use. Policy options addressing
land use are suggested to help improve progress towards

Paragraph 40b of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation,
which urges the development and implementation of integrated
land management and water-use plans so as to use renewable
resources more sustainably.
Energy
The international goal of urgently increasing renewable energy

resources as a part of the total energy supply (Johannesburg
Plan of Implementation, Paragraph 20e) was selected to
address multiple challenges associated with the current energy
system. These challenges include the contribution of fossil fuel
combustion to climate change, elevated water consumption
and air pollution. However, renewable energy also presents
opportunities for sustainable development through increased
employment and economic activity and is a necessary element
in the transition to a green, sustainable economy. In addition,
the processes required for site generation and transmission
facilities present opportunities for increasing transparency and
cross-agency cooperation, and would also benefit environmental
governance and land use. Although the pace of change is still
slow, the policy options for increasing renewable energy are
examples of current tools applied in North America to speed up
the transition to a sustainable energy system.
Policy APPRAISAL
North America has used a variety of policy approaches

to environmental governance, beginning with regulatory
policies, then gradually developing market mechanisms,
complemented by measures designed to improve accountability
and transparency. The region was a pioneer in cross-border
governance, which dates back at least to the 1909 Boundary
Waters Treaty, and in developing international environmental
law and national parks, including cross-border parks. In the
last 20 years, this governance has deepened cross-border
ties through the creation of the Conference of New England
Governors/Eastern Canadian Premiers on climate change and
the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC 2011;
Johnson and Beaulieu 1996), and by reinforcing cooperation
between provinces and states in managing the Great Lakes and
St Lawrence River (Box 13.5), as well as on a variety of other
issues, notably protection of waterbirds and sea mammals.
The Georgia Basin/Puget Sound International Airshed Strategy
in British Columbia and Washington State, for example, is
currently the most active bilateral arrangement regarding air
quality (Environment Canada 2011). For their part, the proposed
creation of watershed boards across the entire Canadian/US
border would represent a major leap in the International Joint
Commissions regulatory potential (Schwartz 2006). Canada
and the United States have also established several jointly
protected areas that further harmonize policies.
North America has pioneered the use of many market
instruments, now being used with increasing frequency, and
there is evidence that some have succeeded in changing
behaviour. Command-and-control mechanisms, however, still
form the backbone of environmental policy. Because of recent

improvements in measures designed to foster accountability and
transparency, these increasingly used instruments strengthen
the effectiveness of both market instruments and command-andcontrol mechanisms. Rarely are any of these used exclusively
to address a particular environmental issue; it is more common
to see a variety of instruments applied. For example, to address
littering, many North American municipalities and states or
provinces have laws that require a deposit on bottles and cans.
This deposit provides a financial incentive a market instrument
to return the items for recycling. In conjunction, bottles and
cans in certain states must clearly display a recycling logo
representing the type of material used and providing easy-tounderstand and transparent information about recycling. Finally,
various regions have banned the inclusion of bottles and cans in
solid waste a command-and-control form of regulation.
Market mechanisms
Market instruments have been used to address a variety of
environmental issues in North America. The most recent have
targeted air quality and climate change and include an acid
rain reduction programme, a greenhouse gas emissions trading
programme in the northeastern states and eastern provinces,
and a carbon tax in Quebec (2007) and British Columbia (2008)
(Box 13.1). Payment for ecosystem services is also gaining wider
attention, although such schemes remain limited.
In 1995, the United States instituted a cap-and-trade emissions
programme, stemming from amendments to the 1990 Clean Air
Act (under Title IV), to reduce sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions,
the major industrial pollutant responsible for acid rain. This
programme is widely credited with reducing sulphur dioxide
emissions more cheaply than traditional environmental regulation.
Montreal Metro entrance. In 2007, Quebec became Canadas first province

to charge a carbon tax which is being directed towards energy-saving
initiatives such as improvements to public transit. aetb/iStock
North America
353
Box 13.1 The Quebec and British Columbia carbon taxes

In 2007, Quebec became the first North American state or
province to introduce a carbon tax. Energy companies are
required to pay 0.8 cents for each litre of petrol distributed
in Quebec and 0.938 cents for each litre of diesel fuel.
Compared to other jurisdictions, however, this tax rate is
very low. The revenue-neutral carbon tax in place in British
Columbia since 2008 is much more ambitious. Rate increases
were phased in, starting at a modest US$10 per tonne of
CO2-equivalent in 2008 and then increasing at a rate of US$5
a year to US$30 a tonne in 2012. The taxs revenue neutrality
is achieved by allowing tax reductions for businesses as
well as tax reductions for and payments to poorer sections
of society. The comprehensive tax applies to all emissions
from fossil fuels, accounting for approximately 70 per cent
Early projections of the average cost for the first phase of the
programme ranged from a high of US$307 per tonne of sulphur
dioxide removed to US$180 per tonne (1995 dollars). Ellerman et
al. (2000) estimated that the actual costs were closer to the low
end of the projections, in the range of US$186210 per tonne. In
addition, a 2011 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) review
of the direct benefits to human health and the environment of the
Clean Air Act estimates that these will reach almost US$2 trillion
by 2020 while implementation costs are US$65 billion a benefitcost ratio of 30:1. This was probably due to the flexibility afforded
to producers to find low-cost compliance measures, although
other factors such as unanticipated technical improvements,
lower transport costs and increases in coal production and use
efficiencies also played important roles (Chestnut and Mills
2005). Although the costs of many regulatory programmes tend to
be overestimated while they are being developed, recent research
found that this has been especially the case for market-based
programmes (Harrington et al. 2008).
The success of the sulphur dioxide trading programme has in part
prompted several jurisdictions in Canada to increase the use of
market-based instruments. As of 2007, the Alberta greenhouse
gas emissions trading system, for example, requires large
industrial emitters that have been established more than eight
years to reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions by 12
per cent per year relative to a 20032005 baseline (Can LII 2011),
and purchase carbon offsets or else pay a tax of US$15 per tonne
of CO2-equivalent. While the programme may result in reduced
emissions compared to the business-as-usual alternative, it has
been heavily criticised for permitting overall increases in carbon
emissions by only targeting emissions intensity. In this sense it is
not a typical cap-and-trade programme.
A less developed scheme, but one that is emblematic of the
readiness of some states and provinces to compensate for
perceived federal inaction, is the Western Climate Initiative,
which combines seven US states and four Canadian provinces.
354
of the provinces total emissions. Emissions from fossil fuels

exported from British Columbia to other jurisdictions are
exempt. In 2010, the tax began to apply to biodiesel as well
(BC Ministry of Finance 2008). The new tax did not seem to
have significant political repercussions the provincial party
that introduced it was re-elected.
Addressing drawbacks typically associated with carbon taxes
may have enhanced its acceptability. This includes mitigating or
eliminating the potentially regressive nature of carbon taxation
(Metcalf and Weisbach 2008), with comprehensive coverage
combined with targeted tax reductions, and reducing potentially
large adaptation costs for carbon-intensive industries through a
gradual phase-in of the tax (Nordhaus 2010).
This has been working since 2007 to develop policies to address

climate change, including a regional, economy-wide cap-andtrade programme and forest offset mechanisms (Anderson et
al. 2010). Only some of the initiatives members California,
Quebec and British Columbia are currently taking preparatory
steps towards implementing this programme in 2012.
Water trading between Canada and the United States and efforts
to allocate water efficiently and equitably among various users
have triggered considerable political controversy, even before
the United Nations acknowledged access to clean water and
sanitation as a fundamental human right in 2010. Trading water
rights, from farms to cities, for example, can be viewed as making
farmland unproductive and favouring urban dwellers over rural
residents. In addition, many civil society organizations see the
privatization of some water rights as incompatible with the
principle of universal and equal access to water.
Water markets, or transferrable water rights, are generally
most developed in regions where water allocation is based on
first-in-time, first-in-right or the doctrine of prior appropriation
(Kenney 2005). In the United States, water markets are prevalent
in the arid western states, and in Canada, water trading occurs
in Alberta and to a lesser extent in British Columbia and the
Territories. The benefits of water trading include the reallocation
of water from lower- to higher-value economic uses or from
areas where the marginal value is low to where it is high. For
instance, where urban users pay much higher rates for water
than do rural and agricultural users, trading makes both water
buyers and sellers better off economically. There are numerous
drawbacks, however. For example, the market value of water
may not correspond to its in situ environmental value. Moreover,
the impact on local water may be externalized to third parties,
including changes to the local economy and environmental
effects from reduced local water availability (Hanak 2003). Other
drawbacks pertain to the very principle promoted by some groups
that water should remain a public good and therefore should
not be commoditized and traded for profit, the ability of private

parties to monopolize the water resources market, and the
distortion of the water trading market due to substantial water
subsidies for the agricultural sector.
Subsidies and tariffs for clean energy, agricultural production and
industrial goods can facilitate the adoption of new, less polluting
technologies or projects that enhance energy conservation.
Subsidies for installing water-efficient fixtures or the California
subsidy programme on residential solar installation, which
encourages distributed electrical generation as well as emissionfree power production, are two such examples. The Ontario
Feed-in Tariff programme, enabled by the 2009 Green Energy
and Green Economy Act (Box 13.2), offers stable prices for
energy provided by renewable sources and supports Ontarios
objective to phase out coal-fired electricity generation by 2014.
This programme has contributed to greater reliance on renewable
energy sources in Ontario, such as wind power, which increased
from 15 megawatts in 2003 to more than 1 100 megawatts in
2009 (Government of Ontario 2009).
While subsidies may help promote technological change, they
have also been criticized for increasing the risk of pollution,
encouraging overconsumption, and fostering the rapid depletion
of natural resources (ten Brink 2011). Agricultural subsidies
have come under the greatest scrutiny not only because of
their pervasive environmental effects on land use, but also for
their negative impact on the agricultural sector and exports of
developing countries. Both Canada and the United States also
continue to provide large subsidies for the production of nonrenewable energy, often in the form of low tax rates for capital
investment (Kenny et al. 2011; Congressional Budget Office
2005), despite the commitment to the contrary made by the
G20 economies in 2009 in Pittsburgh (G20 2009). While some
potentially environmentally harmful subsidies may have social
or other worthwhile objectives, many may not be equitable, may
no longer fulfil their original purpose, or may have unintended
outcomes as a result of market distortions. There are many
instances where subsidies have either directly or indirectly
distorted the market or caused unintended consequences: for
example, declining block rate structures for water use, where
marginal costs decrease as a function of the total amount of
water used, encourage overconsumption.
Payment for ecosystem services, which in one form or another
has been used for years but has lately triggered considerable
renewed interest, is designed to safeguard or increase the
provision of an ecosystem service for which there is high demand
but currently no market mechanism. The US Conservation
Reserve Program, which provides continuous direct payments
to farmers for withdrawing land from production and engaging
in soil restoration, is a long-standing and successful example.
The US Economic Research Service (ERS) conservatively
estimates the programmes benefits to be US$1.3 billion per
year, excluding carbon sequestration, ecosystem protection and
other less easily quantified benefits (Hellerstein 2010). Other
significant ecological benefits include the reversal of landscape
fragmentation, maintenance of regional biodiversity, creation
Box 13.2 Ontario: a comprehensive approach to energy

The provincial energy system in Ontario has undergone a
number of reforms in the last 30 years. The province had a
vertically integrated monopoly until the mid-1990s, but in 1998
moved towards a more market-based model. In 2004, policies
were again revised and a hybrid model put in place, in which
overall system planning was under one agency; nonetheless,
the direction was still towards a market-based model. During
this same period, major interruptions occurred with the
infrastructure, including the overhaul of seven of 20 nuclear
power plants, leading to increased use of coal-fired generation,
resulting in major emissions increases with concerns over
both the health effects and greenhouse gases. In turn, these
concerns led to political pressure and in 2004 the province
decided to phase out coal generation as part of a strategy to
address climate change and reduce the human impacts and
health-care costs of air pollution (Winfield et al. 2010).
To achieve the goal, Ontario implemented a variety of
conservation and renewable energy initiatives, including
the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, a broad-based
instrument that enabled the province to implement a
comprehensive system of renewable energy feed-in tariffs
in 2009. The Ontario feed-in tariff programme provides

stable long-term contracts and generation prices specifically
tailored for wind, solar, micro-hydro and biomass projects.
It also provides a consolidated siting authority, smart grid
provisions and additional benefits to attract community energy
initiatives and First Nations involvement. The act provided the
comprehensive package of policies that created incentives,
stimulated new methods to move energy to markets and
streamlined the project permission process.
The results of the Green Energy and Green Economy Act have
been impressive. The Ontario Power Authority has received supply
applications for the production of 10.4 gigawatts of wind power
and 6.7 gigawatts of solar photovolatic power; by 2011, there
were approximately 3.0 gigawatts of renewable electric power
under contract. The provincial power authority also estimated
that the renewable energy sector had created 13 000 direct and
indirect jobs through the most recent contracts awarded (Mabee
et al. 2012). The Ontario model is currently being considered in
other Canadian provinces including British Columbia and Nova
Scotia (Yatchew and Baziliauskas 2011; Ontario Ministry of
Energy 2010; Power Authority of Ontario 2010).
North America
355
of wildlife habitat and favourable changes in regional carbon

flux (Gleason et al. 2008; Haufler 2005; Dunn et al. 1993). The
Environmental Quality Incentives Program and the Conservation
Security Program of 2002 are two more recent and wideranging programmes that seek to reward farmers for sound land
management from a multi-functionality perspective. For the same
budgetary outlay, the ERS found that environmental performance
could improve 12-fold, including an estimated 17 per cent
reduction in soil erosion saving about 36 million tonnes of soil
valued at about US$2 per tonne, although the value of reducing
sheet and rill erosion alone could be as high as US$332 million
when in-stream sediment decreases are included. In addition,
nitrogen leaching declined by 14 per cent, nitrogen run-off by
13 per cent, phosphorus run-off by 15 per cent, soil productivity
losses by more than 300 per cent, wind erosion by 21 per cent,
carbon emissions by 7 per cent, pesticide leaching by 9 per cent,
and pesticide run-off by 7 per cent (Cattaneo et al. 2005). The US
Department of Agriculture has formed an Office of Environmental
Markets (previously the Office of Ecosystem Services and Markets
formed in 2008) to create guidelines for developing these kinds
of market-based policies (USDA 2011).
In Canada, continuous direct payment programmes based on a
multi-functionality approach remain uncommon. Some provinces
are already using payment for ecosystem services to make it
more attractive for farmers to maintain stream habitats, while at
the national level efforts are under way to find approaches for
comparing the value of services provided by forests (Anderson et
al. 2010). The implementation of such schemes faces numerous
methodological, political and ethical challenges as well as
capacity, cost and time constraints, and their long-term impact
is still unclear. In general, payment for ecosystem services needs
to be complemented with land-use planning frameworks to be
effective (Calbick et al. 2003).
One innovative and promising economic approach aims to
reduce the financial risk of switching to more environmentally
sound practices and does not necessarily involve any payment.
For instance, in the Canadian province of Prince Edward Island,
farmers were offered insurance against the perceived risk that
reducing fertilizer use might also reduce yields. In the majority of
cases, no payment was needed since reducing fertilizer use did
not reduce yields: this was because fertilizer use was already so
high that using less had little effect (Cheverie 2009).
Command-and-control mechanisms
The use of public authority to preserve a given resource has
a long and successful history. Changing private ownership
to public or government ownership and a state-controlled
protective regime can eliminate incentives to appropriate the
benefits of overexploitation. Indeed, North America pioneered
the establishment of the first national parks. This strategy
presupposes extensive political and administrative enforcement
of the status of these resources, which is more readily available
in highly developed economies. Although its effectiveness
remains to be seen, the Quebec Water Law of 2009, which
considers water a common heritage of the Qubcois nation,
356
is a recent and noteworthy example of this type of instrument

(Government of Quebec 2009).
Command-and-control mechanisms are often preferred when
there are significant threats to human health, when a specific
requirement needs to be monitored and enforced, when
absolutely no additional environmental harm is permitted,
and when simplicity and consistency are desired. In practice,
market-based and command-and-control style regulations
are often combined to meet an environmental objective. The
ban on leaded petrol in the United States, for example, was
accompanied by a trading mechanism during the phase-out
period so that refineries could meet the declining production
allowance in a cost-effective manner.
Although such instruments have become politically challenging
to put together, particularly in the United States, there are
several noteworthy examples of their successful use, such as
standards for drinking water, clean air, toxic chemical releases
and fuel; various types of prohibitions including on littering and
the introduction of invasive alien species; and requirements
on recycling, for example. Canada has the authority to regulate
toxic substances, several fuels including diesel and petrol, and
a number of fuel quality parameters, including sulphur levels.
Greenhouse gas and air pollution regulations have also been
implemented in Canada and the United States for new vehicles
and engines. With regard to air quality control more generally,
Canada monitors and regulates air pollutants through the
Canadian Environmental Protection Act and has established
National Ambient Air Quality Objectives, although air quality
remains the primary responsibility of provinces. In the United
States, the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard
regulates the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles.
One of the drawbacks of these instruments is their weak
resilience. When regulations induce changes in behaviour, such
as when penalties for failure to obey them are high enough,
Bicycle commuters in San Francisco, California. Can Balcioglu/iStock
these changes usually depend on the continuous enforcement

of regulations. Many governments at various levels have tried
to green their operations, but the results have often been
disappointing and have remained limited as long as they were
perceived as top-down mandates and did not change the
incentive structure. However, the positive experience of the
US Forest Service since 2008, which sought to instil not only a
conservation ethic but also a consumption ethic by changing
organizational incentives and promoting bottom-up efforts, is
instructive in this regard (Jones-Crabtree et al. 2008).
Accountability and transparency
Policy instruments designed to increase accountability and
transparency seek to make information on environmental
performance and the environmental impacts of resource use
more widely available to facilitate decision making as well as
mobilize a variety of stakeholders. Certainly the best known
and most widely disseminated of these policy tools is the
requirement for environmental impact assessments, which, when
first included in the 1969 US National Environmental Policy Act,
mandated preliminary interdisciplinary assessments of the likely
environmental impacts of major federal projects (Hironaka 2002).
It required US federal officials to include environmental values
in a federal decision-making process dominated by technical
and economic, if not political, considerations. An environmental
impact assessment also requires the identification and evaluation
of reasonable alternatives to a proposed federal action, as well
as input from concerned stakeholders.Canada adopted its own
act in 1992, following previous provincial initiatives. This has
since evolved considerably, notably in terms of its target, which
goes beyond federal and even publicly funded projects, but
also in terms of its scope, with the introduction of sectoral and
strategic assessments, and methods that include social variables.
Although often criticized for its cost, the delays it can cause, and
for ignoring the value of not doing anything at all (null decision),
it remains one of the most effective tools for making sounder
environmental decisions as well as improving participation.
The requirement to report on polluting emissions is another
example of information dissemination that can become an
effective policy tool. Canada has a National Pollutant Release
Inventory and has implemented a Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Reporting Program, while in the United States the EPA requires
the reporting of greenhouse gas data and other relevant
information from large sources and suppliers. This reporting
is now required in 19 US states, and companies will need
to report federally on their 2010 emissions in 2011. The US
Toxics Release Inventory programme provides stakeholders
with information about chemical releases for better decision
making. The drawbacks of such instruments include the limited
effectiveness of relying on blame-and-shame alone when
inventory requirements are not tied to specific obligations.
Thus, this instrument is best seen as a complement to marketbased or command-and-control approaches.
Providing basic information on the environmental impact of
individual citizen behaviour is another useful policy instrument.
A healthy male Peary caribou listed by COSEWIC as being

endangered stands on guard in the High Arctic. Paul Loewen/iStock
The US EPA and Department of Energy instituted the EnergyStar

labelling programme to recognize appliances that perform at or
above category benchmarks for energy efficiency. It confers a
simple efficiency label to a product, but not detailed information
about its energy consumption or the anticipated operating
costs. The benefits include its simplicity, which led to the rapid
improvement of product efficiency by manufacturers who wanted
to qualify for the EnergyStar label (Howarth et al. 2000).
In addition, the creation of third-party advisory bodies has
proved useful in balancing the needs of science and politics,
and provides a means of enhancing policy resilience, that is,
the capacity of given policy objectives and means to persist in
the face of external challenges. Nationally, the Committee on
the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), where
federal and provincial bodies work together with private ones
to diagnose problems and recommend action, has protected
wildlife conservation from the vagaries of political cycles.
North America has also pioneered the institutionalization of
public participation, which helps increase the likelihood of a
policys implementation. Examples include the Great Lakes
agreements (Box 13.5), the Commission for Environmental
Cooperations process of citizen submission on enforcement
matters, and environmental public hearings, as through
Quebecs Environmental Public Hearing Office. Specifically,
Articles 14 and 15 of the North American Agreement on
Environmental Cooperation (NAAEC) provide a non-adversarial
process that allows citizens to file assertions that a Party of
the NAAEC (Canada, Mexico or the United States) is failing to
enforce its environmental law effectively. In some cases, this
process can lead to a record. Political checks and declining
funding for the Commission for Environmental Cooperation,
which had held constant over the years, have however
threatened its effectiveness.
North America
357
A noteworthy development, reflecting a trend seen in other

countries, has been the use of the Office of the Auditor General to
evaluate and publicize the degree of implementation of national
or sub-national commitments. Canada created a Commissioner
of the Environment and Sustainable Development in 1995, and
Quebec followed suit in 2006, with both enjoying a fair degree of
autonomy. This role will be enhanced by the recent adoption of
various sustainable development strategies, both at the federal
and provincial/state levels, aiming to make environmental
decision making more transparent and accountable. It is too
early to assess effectiveness, however, and the lack of uniform
sustainable development indicators hampers comparisons
between the approaches adopted.
The acceptability, nature and effectiveness of various policy
instruments depend on a number of internal and external
factors that vary from state to state, province to province and
region to region. In the end, successful policies rely on a mix of
instruments and incentives. Although market approaches have
raised considerable interest and have proved to be efficient in
some cases, the enduring value of traditional command-andcontrol regulation, associated with disclosure requirements, has
been most effective in changing the behaviour of major polluters
(Harrison and Antweiler 2003).
Land use
One of the most important obstacles to sustainable land

use in North America remains the fragmentary nature of land
management. Forests, rangelands, croplands and urban,
suburban and peri-urban lands are all part of the same landscape
mosaic from which people derive survival and quality of life.
Often, activities within one land type affect the state of others, as
well as other ecosystem services such as air and water quality.
Such impacts are often referred to as externalities, as the true
costs and benefits of the impact are borne by parties external
to the those who control and benefit from the activity. Even
within a given land-use type, management responsibilities can
be dispersed across several distinct bodies according to the
type of activity taking place or to the component that is under
consideration water, fish and wildlife, fossil fuels or recreation,
amongst others. In forest planning, for example, forestry, oil and
gas, recreation, and the provision of ecosystem services are often
managed by entirely separate bodies, even though all activities
take place within the forest.
In North America, many land-use policies are gaining support
and are now considered to be highly effective in motivating
sustainable land use. These policy options work in tandem,
providing informational and functional support to achieve the
desired goals. This section discusses three policy clusters that
have been demonstrated in reality or suggested in theory to
be the most promising to coordinate land management and
promote sustainable resource use and social, economic and
environmental harmonization in North America. These policy
clusters are:
implementing integrated land management plans to
encourage and enable sustainable resource use;
358
incorporating the true costs and benefits of ecosystem

services when developing policy mechanisms; and
improving planning for and sustainability of public lands.
Implementing integrated land management plans
To speed up achievement of the international goal of sustainably
developing and using land in North America, integrated
planning is crucial, requiring policies with clear agreed goals
and specific targets. Land-use policies need to be set at the
appropriate geographic scale state, province, county and
city level although watersheds or other ecologically relevant
geographic scales may be the most logical units for determining
a resource-use sustainability plan. Specific targets should
be set to obtain the highest benefits for the least social and
economic costs. Institutional barriers such as centralized yet
fragmented governmental structures should be overcome to
allow a regional emphasis, and stakeholders should be allowed
to participate in spatial planning. Both regulatory and incentivebased policies can be enacted to encourage target attainment.
These policies should motivate individuals and corporations
to act in accordance with the established plans. In addition,
policies should be developed to encourage the resource sectors
to maintain and enhance ecosystem resilience for future
generations as well as limit the erosion of ecosystem services.
Jurisdictions throughout North America have adopted many of
these policy instruments, to different degrees. For example, in
British Columbia, resource companies, environmental groups
and coastal First Nations have successfully carried out an
ecosystem-based integrated land-use planning exercise, the
2006 Great Bear Forest Agreements, through a collaborative
process (McGee et al. 2010), although the recent economic
downturn has made financing participatory and multi-agency
programmes more difficult for state/provincial and local
governments. As fiscal issues may become more challenging
in the near future, creative financing and regulatory measures
coupled with financial incentives could become more important.
At the same time, agencies will have more time to develop plans
as the pace of industrial, commercial and housing development
slows. Planning today may have long-reaching impacts as the
economy returns to normal.
States, provinces, counties and cities have taken action
to encourage smarter land use through innovative policy
mechanisms. These initiatives address many of the challenges
related to an optimal land-use pattern while respecting property
rights, the need for equity and low-income housing, employment
concerns, resource protection and environmental issues. For
example, in the United States, the State of Maryland uses a
series of incentives in its Smart Growth programme (Box 13.3).
The programme rewards people for relocating close to their place
of employment, capitalizes on state money for infrastructure by
providing it only within planned growth areas (priority funding
areas), targets conservation funding to contiguous land and
high-conservation-value land within clearly identified Rural
Legacy areas, and subsidizes urban redevelopment through its
brownfield redevelopment programme. Smart Growth focuses
Vancouvers Sky Train, a light-rail rapid public transit system, contributes towards the achievement of British Columbias ambitious greenhouse gas
reduction targets. Wade Jabbour
on long-term regional considerations of sustainability, valuing

community, public transport, employment and housing choices,
preserving natural resources and promoting equity.
Similarly in Canada, the Province of Ontario has developed a
greenbelt around the City of Toronto (Box 13.4) and protected
open space and working lands from further conversion through
zoning regulations. Agricultural retention can have economic,
cultural and amenity benefits as well as environmental ones.
British Columbia has designated an Agricultural Reserve, while
Vancouver promotes development near its Sky Train stations.
Rather than continue investments in roads and highways that
promote an automobile culture, metropolitan areas like Toronto
and Vancouver are focusing scarce investment on public transport
and transit-oriented development with multiple benefits.
Incorporating the value of ecosystem services in private
sector decision making
Market mechanisms, financial incentives and regulatory
approaches have moved people to adopt better land-use
practices. However, policies intended to benefit society can have
unintended consequences. They often require the conversion of
forests, grasslands and wetlands to other uses, which results in
loss of habitat and biodiversity, impaired water quality, increased
flooding, eroded soils and loss of resource-based industries
and employment. Governments can help diminish such
environmental effects through a number of policy initiatives. The
most efficient and least controversial remains the establishment
of mechanisms through which users of an ecosystem service,
such as water quality, who are willing to pay for the service,
compensate land managers for implementing best management
practices such as riparian buffers, reduced tillage and reduced
fertilizer applications. Taxes and other incentives in the United
States have increased the total area conserved by local, state
and national land trusts to almost 15million hectares. Payment

for ecosystem service programmes, such as working lands
(agricultural and forest) preservation programmes that bring
together the various economic and ecological benefits that these
lands provide to society, have permanently preserved another
92 million hectares in the United States.
Cap-and-trade systems, such as the one in place for wetlands in
the United States (Spieles 2005), can also be established when
the users of the ecosystem services are dispersed or even do
not yet exist, as in the case of acting in the interests of future
generations. Caps need to be established, as in the case of
the policy of no net loss of wetlands in the US Clean Water Act,
and the magnitude and nature of compensation needs to be
determined. While requiring considerable resources of time and
effort to establish and implement, the pay-off from a societal
point of view is that the market is then able to determine the
most efficient means of respecting the cap through a system of
trading (Yamasaki et al. 2010; Salzman 2005). In the more
than 500 wetlands mitigation banking schemes that generate
US$3 billion dollars, and the more than 110 habitat banks
generating US$370 million in the United States (Madsen et al.
2010), land developers include the cost of wetland mitigation
when pricing potential land acquisitions. They understand that
purchasing land with wetlands will cost more in the end than land
without them; either they protect the wetland or are required
to restore wetlands elsewhere. Governments can implement
programmes to encourage wetland restoration projects that
developers can pay for and use to mitigate any wetlands
destroyed in their own development projects.
Where potential projects are too fragmented, as is often the
case with conservation on working lands, and markets for
environmental payments run the risk of remaining excessively
North America
359
ecological integrity of riparian areas; habitat provision for

plant and animal diversity and species conservation; multiple
uses including recreation and industrial applications; public
involvement in the planning process including community
consultation and all levels of government entities; the use of
the best available scientific information to inform the planning
process; and the development of a more efficient and adaptive
land management planning process (USDA 2012).
While the planning rule is being revised, some groups argue that,
instead of a governmental planning approach to help the forest,
some type of certification processes for land and management
practices should be implemented. Examples of such processes
include those used by non-governmental groups including the
Forest Stewardship Council and the Marine Stewardship Councils
fisheries certification programme (Glickman 2008). Indeed, the
province of Quebecs revised Forest Act, which sets the stage
for integrated land management with significantly increased
responsibilities at the regional level, legislates for wood products
from all public forests to be eco-certified by 2013.
Suburban sprawl outside Austin, Texas. Jodi Jacobson/iStock
thin, governments can opt for more direct financial intervention,

such as the Conservation Reserve Program in the United States
(as mentioned in the section on market mechanisms, above),
under which landowners enter into contracts with the government
to implement best management or conservation practices to
achieve environmental goals.
Improving sustainability on public lands
In both Canada and the United States, which are endowed with
diverse and abundant land resources, the government owns a
substantial amount of that land: 89 per cent of the land mass
in Canada and 3540 per cent of it in the United States. While
human capital in both countries remains a tremendous asset,
many economic sectors continue to generate wealth through
natural resource use. Therefore, federal government policies
on its own land can have a large impact.
In the United States, principles of multiple use and sustained
yield dominated for many years, then in 1993 President Clinton
established a goal of achieving sustainable forest management
of all US forests by the year 2000. And in 1995, through the
Montreal Process and the Santiago Declaration, the United States
committed to a process of developing and evaluating national
indicators of sustainable forest management. As a result, during
the passage of the Federal Ecosystem Management Initiative,
its emphasis shifted to ecosystem management with plans
focused on long-term sustainability rather than on management
to maximize short-term yield (Cortner and Moote 1999; Yaffee
et al. 1996). However, planning has proven problematic
and litigious, and recently, a revised planning rule has been
proposed for the nations public lands. The latest planning rule
under consideration stresses the restoration and maintenance
of forests and grasslands; the protection of water quality and
360
Public-private partnerships have become increasingly important

as current government funds and staffing are inadequate to
assess resources, coordinate sustainable management, and
accommodate the increasing demands of multiple users. Publicprivate partnerships are difficult to foster unless sufficient
motivation exists on all sides, as within federal agencies and
among their staff, long-term traditions can be difficult to alter
without appropriate changes to incentives and reward structures.
Case studies on innovative land-use policies
The policies, underlying conditions and case studies presented
here demonstrate that multiple policy instruments can speed up
efforts to achieve the internationally agreed goal of implementing
integrated land management and water-use plans to ensure the
sustainable use of renewable resources (Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation Paragraph 40b). In the case of the State of
Maryland (Box 13.3), policies leveraged the states funds to
encourage built infrastructure in planned priority areas while
providing incentives to create new jobs and develop brownfield
sites within the same areas. The planning process involved
local communities and used incentives to encourage voluntary
participation to achieve the plans goals, ensuring that it was
politically palatable and thus likely to be successful. While
encouraging development in and near cities, Maryland also
protected valuable resource-rich land from conversion through
permanent conservation easements.
In the case of Ontario and British Columbia (Box 13.4),
their governments passed regulatory measures to protect
environmentally sensitive and working lands while encouraging
transit-oriented development within the cities. From a policy
perspective, environmentally sensitive and working lands are
lumped together, and farming and environmental communities
have joined forces on these issues one of the reasons for
so much support for conservation programmes. Conservation
practices can be adopted to retain topsoil and prevent erosion
Box 13.3 Marylands Smart Growth programme: financial incentives and planning
Marylands Smart Growth programme targets state resources
to support development in areas where infrastructure already
exists and to avoid the high cost of building infrastructure far
from traditional population centres. Priority funding areas are
identified within existing communities and other areas where
local county and town governments want state investment to
support growth and development (Sartori et al. 2011; Lewis
et al. 2009). This approach capitalizes on the influence of
state expenditure on economic growth and development.
Development is more likely to occur in these planned areas,
slowing the conversion of resource-rich land.
In addition, Smart Growth helps protect valuable natural
resources, purchasing land and easements in designated Rural
Legacy areas that have been selected based on the extent of
the development threat and the value of their agricultural,
forestry and natural resources. These areas attract both
on environmentally sensitive land; wetland protection can be

implemented; and streams can be fenced and animals kept out.
In many cases, agriculture-related programmes are relatively
successful in achieving environmental protection because the
opportunity costs to landowners are much lower than for land
put to other uses. Programme developers have also come to
understand that environmental attributes are often devalued
Box 13.4 Canadian land-use reserves in Ontario and

British Columbia: command and control
Ontario and British Columbia have protected rural and
working lands surrounding major cities through regulatory
measures. British Columbia established the Agricultural
Land Reserve system, under which agriculture and
forestry are the priority uses, and non-agricultural uses
are controlled (Cavendish-Palmer 2008; Hanna 1997).
The system covers approximately 4.7 million hectares.
While it is criticized for not compensating farmland owners
sufficiently for the alteration in rights, it has been defended
on the grounds that it effectively provides food security and
controls urban and peri-urban expansion.
The Ontario Greenbelt protects green space, farmland,
forests, wetlands and watersheds around one of Canadas
most populated and rapidly growing areas (Ali 2008; Feung
and Conway 2007; Taylor et al. 2005). It encompasses
730000hectares in which limited agricultural uses are
permitted, includes environmentally sensitive land and a
major aquifer, and contains a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve, the
Niagara Escarpment (Cavendish-Palmer 2008; Hanna 1997).
Rural Legacy dollars and money from other preservation and

conservation programmes (Lynch and Liu 2007), leading to
more contiguous and environmentally beneficial preservation,
including retention of interior forests (blocks of trees away
from non-forest land or roads), wildlife habitat, groundwater
recharge and wetland preservation, as well as agricultural and
other productive resource use.
Three additional incentive programmes reward the
redevelopment of brownfield sites (Howland 2010),
businesses that create jobs in priority funding areas, and
citizens who move to live near their place of work. Johns
Hopkins University, for example, worked with Baltimore City
and the State of Maryland to offer cash grants ranging from
US$2 500 to US$17 000 to help university employees buy
homes in targeted areas around its campuses (Wiewel and
Knaap 2005).
in land markets and have developed new compensation

schemes with environmentally sensitive features that benefit
landowners. While the use of financial incentives and subsidies
differs from regulatory measures, all of these, alone and in
combination, can play important roles in addressing land-use
issues. Concerns about property rights should be evaluated and
addressed. For each policy, decision makers should consider
the implied property rights in the existing market structure and
how a particular policy will alter this. Regardless of the policy
path chosen, cultivating and developing widespread public
support and a willingness to plan is essential to the success of
any of these policies.
Cross-cutting issues
Implementing the selected land-use policies can provide a
number of benefits to support the energy, freshwater and
governance goals. Integrated land management may lead
to policies that provide co-benefits, such as improving
water availability and quality by reducing run-off. This form
of planning may also help to identify areas that are most
acceptable and best suited for the development of renewable
energy, thereby decreasing uncertainty for projects and
accelerating implementation. Integrated land management, if it
leads to the maintenance of vegetation on a landscape, will also
help attain international goals related to climate change.
Freshwater
It is critical to the appropriate use and allocation of freshwater

resources that policy instruments designed to meet basic
human water needs, as well as water requirements for the
production of food and energy, are balanced with the need to
maintain other ecosystem services. Three clusters of key policy
options identified for North America are integrated watershed
management, full-cost pricing and technological solutions.
North America
361
Integrated watershed management

Integrated watershed planning and management can be applied
in combination with other water management measures and has
become an indispensible instrument for improving water resources.
It is an holistic approach to managing water within drainage areas.
This approach is consistent with the broader concept of integrated
water resources management discussed in Chapter 4 and aims to
achieve optimal and sustainable water availability that will improve
human quality of life while maintaining environmental integrity for
all species. Integrated watershed planning and management has
proved effective in addressing some complex challenges over the
last few decades (Heathcote 2009). The method recognizes that
water issues cannot be addressed independently but require the
balanced consideration of all environmental, social, economic and
technical aspects. It may include goals such as flood prevention,
enhancement of aquatic habitat and biodiversity, reduction in the
loss and degradation of wetlands, pollution control and economic
growth. The success of programmes can be assessed through water
quality indicators including contaminant concentration, dissolved
oxygen and biodiversity, water flow and flood prevention.
Developing and implementing an integrated watershed planning
and management policy requires active participation, interaction
and collaboration between stakeholders. Currently, this is not
administered nationally in the United States and Canada, but
through initiatives at the regional or state/provincial level. For
example, the Total Maximum Daily Loads programme for pollutant
control in the United States is being implemented at the state
level as required by the Clean Water Act. States are required to
identify impaired waters and calculate the maximum amount of
a pollutant a water body can receive and still meet water quality
standards, and then develop plans, with public input, to address
point and non-point sources of pollutants in an effort to restore
and maintain the water quality. Although the programme has
shown a varying degree of success across the country due in
part to the differences of each watershed factors that have
been recognized to enhance implementation include a focused
watershed plan, active stakeholder involvement, coordination
between local and state governments, a diversity of approaches
to addressing sources of pollution, and adequate resources
for watershed characterization and monitoring (Benham et al.
2008). An attractive aspect of integrated watershed planning and
management is that it need not require expensive infrastructure
such as water treatment and control structures. Therefore, costs
do not necessarily restrict implementation, so it can move
forward in situations and regions where financial resources
are limited. This makes integrated watershed planning and
management highly transferable, provided effective coordination
and implementation mechanisms can be established. It can
also be applied at a diversity of scales ranging from small urban
stream restoration projects to large watershed programmes, such
as the Great Lakes (Box 13.5), Chesapeake Bay (Hassett et al.
2005), the Everglades (Davis and Ogden 1994) and San Francisco
Bay (IRWMP 2006). Of its many benefits, perhaps the most
notable is that stakeholders are actively involved in selecting
the management strategies to solve water resource problems.
Active stakeholder involvement, with explicit discussion of
362
issues, improves decision making and acceptance, thus offering

advantages over top-down planning, which often lacks public
support and understanding.
Integrated watershed planning and management is not without
problems, however, and it is often difficult to determine how
well it works. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, it was initiated
decades ago in an effort to clean up the estuary and restore
coastal fisheries. Projects to improve water quality have largely
focused on tributaries, and include re-vegetating riparian
areas, improving stream channels and restoring wetlands.
Millions of dollars have been spent on thousands of restoration
projects within the watershed, yet the success is difficult to
gauge, due in part to a lack of comprehensive monitoring of
individual projects (Hassett et al. 2005). While clear indications
of widespread water quality improvements in the Chesapeake
Bay have not yet been observed, outcomes in some areas look
promising (Ruhl and Rybicki 2010).
In general, integrated watershed planning and management
faces serious challenges due largely to the magnitude and
complexity of problems as well as socio-political rather than
technological or hydrological barriers. The mismatch between
watershed boundaries and political boundaries poses a
challenge because of the often conflicting needs of the multiple
landowners and political entities with jurisdictions in watersheds
(Blomquist and Schlager 2005). To overcome this, a watershed
authority is typically established to coordinate and implement
the plan, and faces the formidable task of bringing together the
stakeholders and facilitating agreements to balance the needs of
competing interests. Thus, collaboration and public participation
are essential. The challenges of creating watershed authorities
are magnified when watersheds cross international boundaries.
However, these challenges can be met through such efforts as
the International Watersheds Initiative, which was conceived by
Smart meters measure residential water consumption. Kenneth Cheung
Box 13.5 Protection and management of the Great Lakes Basin

Canada and the United States share the benefits and responsibility
of co-managing the Great Lakes watershed ecosystem, the
Earths largest surface freshwater system (GLIN 2011a)
(Figure 13.1). In addition to providing drinking water to nearly
33 million people, this abundant supply of water is at the core of
the regions economy. The Great LakesSt Lawrence River Basin
Sustainable Water Resources Agreement of 2005, signed by eight
American states and two Canadian provinces, provides a framework
for each state and province to manage and protect the basin as a
whole. The agreements principles stem from an ecosystem-based
water management approach and include bans on new diversions
of water from the basin, with a few exceptions; imposes a consistent
standard to review proposed uses of basin water; requires that each
state and province develop and implement a water conservation
and efficiency programme; strengthens the collection and sharing of
technical data among parties; and ensures a strong commitment to
continued public involvement in implementing the agreement.
Figure 13.1 The Great Lakes Basin

ONTARIO
Lake
Superior
WISCONSIN
QUEBEC
Lake
Huron
Lake
Ontario
Lake
Michigan
Lake
Erie
NEW
YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
OHIO
Source: Base from ESRI, 2001; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,1998; and Environment Canada,1995.
the governments of Canada and the United States to promote the

establishment of watershed authorities and facilitate integrated
transboundary management (Blaney 2009).
Full-cost pricing
Full-cost pricing of water delivery has been defined by the US EPA
as a pricing structure which fully recovers the cost of providing
that service in an economically efficient, environmentally
The Great Lakes and St Lawrence Cities Initiative is an

example of a successful cross-jurisdictional initiative that
has been effective in increasing water efficiency and reducing
demand across the region. The initiative includes the
objective that, by 2015, all participating cities of the basin
reduce water use by 15 per cent relative to levels of use in
2000. By 2010, almost half of the 33 participating cities had
collectively achieved a 13 per cent reduction, conserving
around 330million m3 of water. Policy instruments that
helped achieve this reduction include:
technological instruments such as infrastructure upkeep
and water metering;
economic incentives such as subsidies that promote water
efficiency, and reduced water rates for industrial users
based on their commitment to implement sustainable
water-saving projects; and
educational outreach (GLSL Cities 2011).
sound, and socially acceptable manner, and which promotes

efficient water use by customers (USEPA 2006). Based on
the user-pays and polluter-pays principles, high-volume users
pay proportionately more than low-volume users. The aim is to
make it possible for all consumers to afford the volume of water
necessary for basic human needs while charging increasing
prices for consumption beyond that level. Full costs include all
public and private costs, both market and non-market values,
and account for costs that will be incurred in the future, such as
those arising from infrastructure rehabilitation and replacement.
In public water provision, once the water delivery infrastructure is
in place such as dams, canals, pumps, pipelines or treatment
plants the marginal cost to the utility company of delivering
water to its customers is equal to its variable costs. These costs
amount primarily to administrative and maintenance costs,
which are near zero compared to the cost of establishing the
overall infrastructure. The resulting artificially low market price to
customers generally leads to water consumption decisions being
based on incomplete information, resulting in overconsumption.
In a full-cost pricing model, all infrastructural, environmental
and intergenerational costs are included in the delivery price. In
practice it is difficult to account for all of these costs accurately;
nonetheless, various pricing systems attempt to convey more
complete cost information so as to require consumers to pay
more of the costs associated with their respective levels of
water consumption. One example of how full-cost pricing can be
implemented is through increasing block rates, thought to be
the most effective in encouraging conservation. In this pricing
structure, the amount charged per unit of water consumed
increases with the total volume consumed.
Numerous examples of successful implementation of full-cost
pricing exist, and are typically evaluated in terms of reductions
in water consumption (USEPA 2005). An example is offered by
North America
363
the Marin Municipal Water District (MMWD), a public agency

that provides water for 195 000 residents in south and central
Marin County, California (MMWD 2011). The MMWDs water rate
structure includes a base fee that covers such services as meter
reading, billing, meter replacement and repair, customer service,
water conservation and administration, and four levels of charge
that cover the cost of water transmission, treatment, distribution,
watershed maintenance, and importing and recycling water. The
MMWD imports a quarter of its water from the Russian River in
Sonoma County through an agreement with the Sonoma County
Water Agency. The environmental costs of using water from the
Russian River stem from the Federal Endangered Species Act,
and include expenses related to improving conditions for several
fish species that are classified as threatened or endangered,
for example by constructing fish ladders, as well as channel
maintenance and monitoring. The MMWD is unusual in that
customers pay the full cost of water without state and federal
subsidies or cost sharing with other water agencies. Rates are
comparable to other northern California water agencies, and
overall water use has remained relatively stable over the
last several decades despite an increasing population (Fryer
2009). These water-saving measures are a result of a better
understanding of the true value of water, and have minimized

the financial and environmental costs of water supply expansion.
Despite successes, there are also some limitations to full-cost
pricing, including its complexity compared to the simplicity of
traditional marginal-cost pricing structures, making it difficult for
consumers to respond to the price information by adjusting their
water use. Public outreach campaigns and in-bill information
leaflets that describe cost structures are addressing this barrier
to some extent. Another limitation is the difficultly in setting
prices properly, in particular in identifying and allocating
non-market costs such as environmental losses associated
with water delivery for example the environmental effects of
constructing new diversion and containment structures. Various
formal methods have been developed, however, for assigning
market values to non-market costs over time, identifying present
and amortized values for those costs, and then adding them to
the marginal cost to customers on the basis of water consumed
(Renzetti and Kushner 2004; Rogers et al. 2002). Implementing
full-cost pricing requires adequate institutional support and
agreement, as well as the personnel and data necessary for
estimating cost components.
Technological solutions and conservation measures
Technological advances and conservation measures can
effectively decrease water use in the residential, industrial and
agricultural sectors. This has been accomplished in large part
through regulation, financial incentives and voluntary measures.
Many options are available for reducing water consumption and
increasing efficiency depending on the sector, including low-tech
solutions, water-saving appliances, water reuse systems and
metering. For example, the decline in average residential water
use in North America over the last 25 years is largely attributed
to increased efficiency standards for household appliances
(Rockaway et al. 2011). In the agricultural sector, flood irrigation
systems are being replaced by more efficient technologies
designed to increase crop yield per unit of water use. Simpler
conservation measures such as responsible water-use habits
go hand-in-hand with efficiency, and can be promoted through
water education programmes. Examples of cities that have
implemented such programmes include El Paso, Texas (EPWU
2007), San Diego, California (City of San Diego 2011) and Prince
George, British Columbia (City of Prince George 2011).
A residential condensing hybrid tankless water heater. This technology

produces hot water on demand and is much more energy efficient than
a conventional hot water holding tank. BanksPhotos/iStock
364
Conserving water through improved long-term sustainable

efficiency can lead to a range of economic and environmental
benefits. Some of the advantages of this approach include
adaptability to site-specific needs, avoidance of more expensive
potable water supplies, and the reduced costs of operating and
maintaining water distribution and treatment infrastructure, with
associated energy savings. For commercial and industrial facilities,
savings in water and energy costs realized by implementing
efficiency measures can quickly offset the investments made.
For instance, in the State of California the average estimated
payback period for investing in water-efficient technologies in the
commercial, industrial and institutional sector is typically less than
two and a half years (Vickers 2001). Obstacles to implementing
water efficiency measures include situations in which the capital

investment does not justify the water cost savings in the short
term, or when a general consensus cannot be reached among
stakeholders that the benefits accrued to the water rate payers
are worth the investment in the long run. Decisions often depend
on the costs associated with water use and water discharge,
environmental compliance and production. Other economic
incentives may be required in some areas with low water costs,
including subsidies, tax credits and grants. In many cases, it will
be a combination of sector-specific instruments and incentives
appropriate to a regions issues and needs that will allow a
variety of innovative and effective water-use efficiency measures
to be implemented.
Policies that promote the integrity of the water cycle and the
essential life-supporting services it provides can indirectly
help achieve the internationally agreed goals for land use and
renewable energy. Successful implementation of integrated
watershed planning and management is likely to promote
sustainable land use by restoring ecosystem function and
enhancing resilience. When the true cost of water supply is
assessed, added revenue may be used to fund restoration
programmes carried out over the landscape. Water conservation
that stems from financial incentives and technological advances
will further reduce land degradation and minimize energy
requirements for the use and distribution of water. Greater
reliance on renewable energy sources will reduce greenhouse
gas emissions that cause climate change, which may mitigate
projected impacts on the water cycle.
Energy
Canada and the United States are endowed with diverse and
abundant renewable energy resources. Transforming that vast
potential into a sustainable energy system requires mobilizing
political will, behavioural change and smart, comprehensive policies
that support renewable energy. There are several environmental
issues associated with the current energy system, including climate
change, elevated water consumption and air pollution.
Since fossil fuel consumption is the major contributor to
increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide
(CO2), experts contend that policy interventions should be
strengthened, not just to increase renewable energy production,
but to substitute renewable energy for the current carbonemitting energy systems (Delucchi and Jacobson 2011; IPCC
2011; Jacobson and Delucchi 2011; Schneider et al. 2000).
Renewable electricity technologies offer an effective means
of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, thus providing a tool
for climate change mitigation (Awerbuch 2006). This section
highlights practical lessons learned as well as comprehensive
and emerging novel approaches from North Americas electricity
sector. It has become clear that even partial mitigation of the rate
of climate change requires more carbon-free sources of electricity
(Schiermeier et al. 2008). In addition, policy innovation and
technical improvements are rapidly advancing in this sector,
thus providing the clearest examples for emulation.
Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm, California, generating clean, renewable

energy. Patrick Poendl/iStock
North Americas current dependence on fossil fuel resources

largely stems from a cycle of pricing effects, partially due to
subsidies that favour conventional fossil fuel energy production
and that externalize pollution costs. For example, an analysis
of all energy subsidies provided in the United States in 2004
shows that 86 per cent went to fossil fuels, 8 per cent to nuclear
energy and just 6 per cent to renewables and energy efficiency
(Sovacool and Watts 2009). Recently, Energy Secretary Steven
Chu announced that the Obama administration intends to
repeal US$46.2 billion in subsidies to oil, natural gas and coal
companies in the next ten years in order to fund renewable
energy spending (Bloomberg 2011). Economists argue that
to address these uneven subsidies and other market failures
associated with fossil fuels and to accelerate renewable energy
deployment, the multiple social and environmental costs of
emissions have to be included in the price of conventional energy
production (Sovacool 2009a). Smart, novel and comprehensive
policies are therefore necessary to provide the incentives,
transmission networks, transparency and market space essential
to support rapid and sustained renewable energy development
and the substitution of fossil fuels.
During the selection process, three policy clusters were identified
affecting renewable energy adoption: providing financial support
to alter incentives or encourage behavioural change; improving
networks and grid flexibility; and decreasing institutional
barriers. This section highlights key policies that support current
instruments affecting the adoption of renewable energy and
discusses the benefits, drawbacks and potential for transfer
and scale-up. However, as experts contend and the case studies
in this section illustrate, a comprehensive policy approach is
important when considering renewable energy support (Sovacool
2009b). Such an approach could accelerate renewable energy
development by simultaneously confronting the multiple
North America
365
challenges and barriers that are delaying the transition to a

sustainable energy system.
Support to alter incentives or encourage behavioural change
The policy measures described in this section provide market
incentives that partially address fossil fuel subsidies and the
externalization of the costs of pollution (Sovacool and Watts
2009). Examples already in use in North America include
production tax credits, feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio
standards; in addition, governments supply funding for research
and development. Production tax credits represent kilowatthour tax credits for qualified renewable energy sources while
feed-in tariffs typically guarantee grid access and provide
long-term contracts for electricity generation at stable prices
(DSIRE 2011; Mendonca 2007). Where they are well designed,
feed-in tariffs also provide renewable energy premiums using
the rate-payer base rather than government funds. Renewable
portfolio standard policies also avoid the use of government
funds, with the exception of monitoring compliance with the
standard, and typically require utilities to procure renewable
energy resources as a prescribed percentage of total electricity
(Fischer 2010). Investments in research and development help
to improve technologies that drive prices down, providing market
advantages aimed at increasing the renewable energy market.
The close coupling of research and development with investment
subsidies has shown to improve policy effectiveness (Soderholm
and Klaassen 2007; Klaassen et al. 2005).
Improving networks and grid flexibility
Renewable energy sources and current fossil fuel generation
facilities are often located in different places, thus requiring
networks to transport energy from new source areas to load
centres. In addition, fossil fuel generation, which is characterized
by long-term capital stock, currently dominates the market,
limiting opportunities for new technologies to enter. Several
policy measures have been devised that improve the management
and characteristics of transmission networks and increase market
access and space. These include designating transmission cost
recovery and allocation; managing the grid through independent
system operators; developing smart grids; and phasing out coal
plants. These policies are intended to make it easier to develop
infrastructure, open market space and transmit renewable energy
from areas of generation to load centres.
Cost recovery and allocation policies provide clear frameworks
for developers to recover installation costs from transmission
projects, which is necessary to provide an energy transportation
network to increase renewable energy use. Currently, it is difficult
to finance the development of transmission structures that cross
multiple state and provincial jurisdictions, with, in many cases,
associated problems in assigning costs and benefit levels. To
overcome this, experts have proposed that federal authorities
should determine cost allocation (Willrich 2009).
Energy developers also encounter problems with the lack of
transparency and access to the grid (Sovacool 2009b) as,
traditionally, vertically integrated companies generate, transmit
366
and distribute electricity. In many areas, utility companies still

own and operate the transmission assets, leading to a lack of
transparency in the availability of transmission. Independent
system operators are third-party public institutions responsible
for granting access to transmission grids, which could provide
desirable conditions for accelerating renewable energy
deployment by ensuring transparency and fair access to markets
(Joskow 2005). In Texas, where cost allocations are assigned
to all supply entities, representing a novel approach for North
America (Schumacher et al. 2010), the construction of highvoltage electricity transmission is proceeding rapidly (Box 13.6).
Phasing out coal plants is a relatively new policy instrument
that decreases greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously
increasing grid flexibility and providing market space for
renewable energy. Since coal-fired technology has a limited
ability to respond to load fluctuations, these policies typically
substitute coal-fired generation with natural gas, which has more
responsive technologies that emit lower levels of pollutants
and greenhouse gases than coal-fired generation (Dewees
2008). Coal phase-out policies provide public health benefits
and accelerate the transition to a sustainable energy system by
decreasing emissions that lead to climate change (Winfield et al.
2010). This particular policy rapidly internalizes the costs
associated with the market failure of fossil fuel energy by
targeting concentrated sources of emissions.
Policies for overcoming institutional barriers
The final cluster consists of policies that increase the pace
of renewable energy deployment by removing institutional
barriers and facilitating long-term planning. One method of
removing barriers is by consolidating siting authorities, either by
aggregating multiple jurisdictions into one decision-making body
or by placing the siting authority in an existing entity; examples
are the Province of Ontario (Box 13.2) and the State of Texas
(Box 13.6) (Gallant and Fox 2011; Bohn and Lant 2009; Wilson
and Stephens 2009).
Agencies may also conduct integrated resource planning,
which typically requires involving the public, identifying
energy efficiency and resource options, developing action
plans, and describing efforts to minimize the environmental
effects of resource acquisitions. Experts contend that plans for
designing and optimizing systems should now include explicit
consideration of grid-connected renewables. They also maintain
that including the evaluation of renewable energy sources in
integrated resource planning helps develop a cost-effective
sustainable energy system (Yilmaz et al. 2008).
Benefits of the selected policy measures
Empirical evidence shows that widespread renewable energy
results in decreased environmental impacts and increased
social benefits (IPCC 2011). Thus, increasing renewable energy
production and displacing fossil fuels in the energy system by
addressing perverse subsidies, providing paths to markets and
market space, and removing institutional barriers could deliver
multiple benefits. Environmental benefits include reduced
greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants, lower water use

in the case of wind and solar photovoltaics, and decreased
water pollution (Sovacool and Watts 2009; Roth and Ambs
2004). Social benefits include enhanced energy security and
reliability by diversifying the supply and using indigenous
resources, and reduced energy price volatility and disruptions
(Awerbuch 2006; Roth and Ambs 2004). In addition, experts
maintain that renewable energy developments are associated
with enhanced economic development and more jobs (IPCC
2011; Wei et al. 2010). Finally, the use of renewable resources
also benefits public health through decreased emissions and
fewer occupational injuries (Sumner and Layde 2009; Rabl and
Spadaro 2000).
Research clearly demonstrates that renewable energy sources
generate significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil
fuel options (IPCC 2011; Awerbuch 2006). Scenario analyses
indicate that increasing renewable energy deployment from
27 to 77 per cent of the primary energy supply by 2050 may be
expected and may achieve savings of up to 85 per cent of global
CO2 emissions for the scenarios with the highest renewable
energy shares (IPCC 2011). The majority of the technologies
deployed in these scenarios are wind, direct solar and modern
biomass, with an annual average cost of less than 1 per cent
of global gross domestic product (GDP) per year (Edenhofer
et al. 2011). Furthermore, experts forecast that by 2030 the
production costs, including social costs, of renewable energy
would be lower than energy production by fossil fuels (Delucchi
and Jacobson 2011; Jacobson and and Delucchi 2011). However,
to achieve this transition, existing policies must be significantly
strengthened and implemented comprehensively and therefore
require additional political will (Jacobson and Delucchi 2011;
Sovacool and Watts 2009).
The benefits of improving networks and reducing institutional
barriers include lower costs and faster deployment of renewable
energy. In the case of transmission, improved networks generally
enhance reliability, lower the delivered costs of electricity and
restrict the ability of generators to exercise market power (Hirst
2004). Experts commonly call for reducing institutional barriers to
expedite the transition to a sustainable energy system (Mitchell
et al. 2011). Quantitative analysis also shows that reducing
siting barriers correlates with increased wind power development
(Bohn and Lant 2009).
Potential drawbacks of selected policy measures
The successful implementation of production tax credits or
feed-in tariffs requires an in-depth understanding of the various
energy prices for all renewable energy sources as well as the
costs of externalities. These policies therefore have potential
drawbacks. Specifically, production tax credits or feed-in tariffs
can be extremely inefficient. Since incentive levels are fixed over
time, this may lead to limited innovation and downward price
pressures. Likewise, implementing renewable portfolio standards
also requires an in-depth knowledge of markets to establish
appropriate targets, enforcement mechanisms and sectorspecific set-asides. While context dependent, these are usually
A large-scale oil refinery complex in the Alberta oil sands, Canada, near
Fort McMurray. Dan Barnes/iStock
subsidies aimed at a particular industry (Berry and Jaccard

2001). Inadequately designed renewable portfolio standards
may encourage particular technologies and therefore lead to
technological lock-ins (Unger and Ahlgren 2005).
In addition, critics argue that implementing renewable energy
policies may increase the cost of energy and/or increase tax
burdens (Gallant and Fox 2011). These expenses are especially
burdensome to lower-income households; however, widespread
renewable energy adoption combined with progressive tax
design and incentives offers some protection from energy price
increases. For example, subsidy programmes already exist to
assist low-income households with energy costs in the United
States, so expanding existing programmes could provide
assistance for vulnerable groups should energy prices rise.
Policies to increase transmission networks and reduce siting
barriers also have potential drawbacks. When reallocating
the costs of transmission, these policies could result in
disproportionate financial burdens on parties who do not benefit.
Reducing siting barriers may also decrease public participation.
Replication and transferability of selected policies
The potential for replication and transferability of these
policies is not straightforward and is arguably dependent on
context and specific instrument design. For example, the North
American grid exists in an institutional framework that is highly
fragmented, while other countries may have nationally owned
networks, in which case fragmentation may not be an issue
(Willrich 2009; Joskow 2005). Germany, France, Italy, Japan
and Denmark have experience in replicating and transfering
feed-in tariffs at the national level, while the United States
and Australia have experience with production tax credits and
renewable portfolio standards (IEA 2011). Policies on feed-in
North America
367
tariffs and renewable portfolio standards are in force in diverse

jurisdictions including Canada, China, Kenya, Portugal and
Uganda (IEA 2011). Statistically, correlations demonstrate that
the policies are effective, particularly in the case of feed-in
tariffs (Haas et al. 2011). Direct causal evidence of effectiveness
for other policies, however, is limited, as is evidence of the
potential for replication and transferability to other jurisdictions

(Carley 2009; Doris et al. 2009).
Proactive measures to accelerate the use of renewable energy
Achieving the international goal of urgently expanding the
share of renewable energy supply in North Americas energy mix
Box 13.6 Texas: a rapid expansion of wind energy

Texas has emerged as the leader in the growth of wind
energy in the United States, with policies that direct market
mechanisms towards achieving the states energy capacity
goals. Policies include customer choice, wholesale electricity
markets, and a transmission cost allocation method along
with tradable renewable energy credits and federal tax credits
(Zarnikau 2011). In addition to these policies, the authority for
siting wind farms in Texas is centralized, making it relatively
easy to obtain licenses compared to other areas of the country
(Bohn and Lant 2009; Wilson and Stephens 2009).
Expanding electricity transmission facilities has been a key
component of Texass package of policy instruments. The
state is an unusual jurisdiction in North America because
it has a single grid authority, the Electric Reliability Council
of Texas (ERCOT). As part of its transmission policies, Texas

dispensed with the demonstration of a need and designated
Competitive Renewable Energy Zones, thus allowing capacity
to be built ahead of need. Texas also allocates costs for
these facilities across all companies that provide electric
power to consumers within the ERCOT area (Schumacher
et al. 2010), allowing transmission developers to recover
the costs from the installation of new power lines. In
addition, the charging of all consumers and not just the
beneficiaries provides a consistent framework across the
entire grid, eliminating the political dispute over who pays
and who benefits from new transmission. These policies,
which actively plan for expanding transmission, have been
vital in promoting the states rapid growth in renewable
energy production (Figure 13.2).
Figure 13.2 Proposed renewable energy zones, potential transmission expansion and the growth of wind
power in Texas
Substation
Transmission line
Competitive renewable
energy zone
Panhandle B
OKLAHOMA
NEW
MEXICO
Panhandle A
Wind power, thousand megawatts

10
8
Central West
6
4
Central
2
0
McCamey
MEXICO
Note: Project locations are graphical

representations and may not reflect
actual line routes or substation locations.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Zarnikau 2011
Texass comprehensive policy package which mandates renewable energy production, consolidates the siting authority and spreads
transmission costs across all consumers is a novel approach that has provided impressive results. Wind power deployment has grown
from a capacity of 50 megawatts in 1999 to more than 9 272 megawatts in early 2010, accounting for 8.4 per cent of the states total
electrical generation in the first quarter of 2010. While there have been challenges in grid integration and additional transmission
expansion is currently under way, projections based on the current policies indicate that Texass wind energy will continue to expand
and that solar energy deployment is expected to boom. The achievements and forecasts indicate that if the policy regime is properly
designed, market-based initiatives can realize significant and rapid renewable energy development (Zarnikau 2011).
368
requires mobilizing political will and increasing public support

to implement comprehensive renewable energy policies focused
on addressing market failures, providing clear market signals,
modernizing transmission systems, proving new technologies
including energy storage, and streamlining institutional
structures. A modernized, clean, reliable and efficient 21st
century energy system will provide greater energy security,
enhanced price stability and increased economic performance,
and may save up to 85 per cent of global greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 (IPCC 2011; Awerbuch 2006).
Current research argues that in accounting for fossil fuel
externalities and subsidies, the question appears not to be
one of cost, but rather of social and political barriers (Delucchi
and Jacobson 2011). Cultivating and developing widespread
public participation and support is essential for generating the
political will to implement the policies necessary to achieve
the internationally agreed goal. The case studies illustrate that
comprehensive policy packages that include incentives to offset
externality and subsidy advantages afforded to fossil fuels,
provide for energy transmission and reduce institutional barriers,
can also significantly accelerate the transition to a sustainable
energy future.
Yosemite, one of the largest and least fragmented habitat blocks in

the Sierra Nevada, was central to the development of the national park
concept in the United States. Pgiam/iStock
the case of clean air and climate change as well as between

environmental protection and sustainable development, where
conservation issues can arise.
Increasing the deployment of renewable energy can provide a
number of benefits to support the other internationally agreed
goals. Wind and solar photovoltaic renewable energy can
decrease water stress since it uses less water than conventional
thermo-electric forms of generation (Roth and Ambs 2004).
Benefits for land use include relative reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions, thereby decreasing potential climate change
impacts (Turney and Fthenakis 2011). However, land use
for expanding renewable energy systems may require the
disturbance of additional areas, depending on the particular
technology being deployed (Fthenakis and Kim 2009). At the
same time, an integrated approach to siting renewable energy,
increased transparency and collaboration between agencies may
lead to improvements in environmental governance.
Some of the policy examples show how cultivating public will

and political support while reducing negative public perceptions
has moved the region closer to achieving environmental goals.
Public-private partnerships have become increasingly important
as government funds and staff have shown to be unable to
assess resources, coordinate sustainable management and
accommodate the increasing demands of multiple users.
CONCLUSIONS
Finally, and importantly, the examples reveal that applying

successful policy options is complex, often requiring hybrid
techniques combining two or more regulatory mechanisms to
adjust existing market rules, financial incentives to shift pricing
in existing markets, and participatory techniques. Transferring
and up-scaling the processes that appear to have contributed to
the success of a policy or market instrument will further speed
up the achievement of internationally agreed environmental
goals. In general, transferring processes is more feasible than
replicating policy contents, since more is known about factors
that influence the likelihood of transfers. The success of policies
and instruments is very context dependent, while processes
foster legitimacy and learning. Failing to protect ecosystem
services for the generations to come will undoubtedly be more
costly socially, economically and environmentally than the
burden of expanding processes and policies that seem already to
have proven successful.
This chapter has suggested that there are many policies and
market instruments that have contributed, however uncertain
the causality, towards achieving the internationally agreed
goals. It is unlikely the policies were instituted with the global
goals in mind, however; rather, the impetus probably came
from bi-national, national and sub-regional institutions and
governing bodies. It is important for all levels of governance
and decision making to set clear short-, medium- and long-term
environmental goals and specific targets as a crucial means of
inducing a change in behaviour among public and private actors.
Performance indicators are necessary to evaluate policy progress
and clearly identify successes and shortcomings, and it is also
essential to work towards synergy between the goals adopted
under climate change and other environmental themes, while
keeping in mind the potential contradictions between different
environmental goals at least in the short term, for example in
The selected policy options suggest a number of opportunities

for future environmental governance in North America. The
most efficient and least controversial financial mechanism for
ecosystem services focuses on users of an ecosystem service
such as water quality who are willing to pay for the service
and compensate the owners or managers of that resource for
implementing best management practices.
North America
369
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C H A P T E R
vintagerobot/iStock
West Asia
14
Coordinating lead authors: Amr El-Sammak and Nesreen Ghaddar

Lead authors: Mohamed Abdulrazzak, Anwar Abdu Khalil, Ahmad Fares Asfary,
Nesreen Ghaddar, Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, Amr El-Sammak, Mohamed Abdel Raouf Abdel
Hamid Aly and Fouad Abousamra
Contributing authors: Abdullah Droubi, Mahmoud Al-Sinai, Asma Abahussain,
Mohammad S. Abido, Ahmed Ali Salih, Abdel Hadi Mohamed, Muhyiddine Jradi,
Maha Al-Sabbagh, Hashim Al-Sayed, Fouad Abousamra, Ahmed Khalil, Lulwa N Ali,
Amir Ibrahim, Mohammad Abdul Rahman Hassan and Mukdad Al-Khateeb
Principal scientific reviewer: Mahmoud Ali
Chapter coordinators: Adel Farid Abdel-Kader and Fouad Abousamra
North America
373
Main Messages
Initiatives to introduce policy mixes to achieve a
higher level of integration at different sectoral levels
remain modest. West Asia has, however, made some
progress on environmental governance and tends to
rely on command-and-control measures rather than
market-based instruments.
Financial investment has enabled some countries
to make good progress towards Millennium
Development Goal targets for water supply and
sanitation (MDG 7c), but more efforts are still
needed, especially in Yemen. In the past four
decades, water policies have focused on supply
infrastructure, especially in urban areas, aiming
to overcome shortages through technical solutions
including desalination. Coordination with other
policies that prioritize balancing water supply
with demand is crucial. The success of water
policies in the region is contingent on political,
financial and human commitment, reliable
assessment of supply and demand, effective legal
and institutional arrangements and active publicprivate sector partnerships.
National action plans to combat land degradation
and desertification should be integrated with the
sustainable use of natural resources, biodiversity
conservation and plans to reduce the impacts of
374
374

climate change. Integrated action to reduce land

degradation, a significant issue in the region, would
also address the regional phenomena of dust storms.
The region needs to strengthen its legislative and
institutional frameworks for developing sustainable
energy systems if it is to achieve global goals.
Policy development to promote energy efficiency
and renewable energy is evolving but, despite a
wealth of renewable energy sources, the energy
sector is still characterized by heavy reliance on
fossil fuels, leading to high carbon emissions
and adverse environmental impacts. The building
sector is a major energy consumer, especially for
air-conditioning, though green building practices
are now emerging through the adoption of industry
energy-efficiency codes.
Countries should confirm their commitments to
protect the coastal and marine ecosystem through
harmonization of the ecosystem approach with
integrated coastal zone management plans
and strategies. Strong coastal development
plans reflect the implementation of coastal and
marine policies in West Asia. Achieving marine
biodiversity conservation is progressing through the
establishment of marine protected areas and the
application of integrated fisheries management.
INTRODUCTION
West Asia is geographically grouped into two sub-regions: the

Arabian Peninsula, including Yemen and the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia and United Arab Emirates; and the Mashriq, which
includes Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Occupied Palestinian
Territories (OPT) and Syria. The region covers about 4 million
km2 approaching 2.5 per cent of worlds total land area. The
environment is predominantly arid and semi-arid. Rainfall is
scarce but with significant spatial and temporal variability.
Water scarcity and frequent and persistent spells of drought are
common, making water the regions most precious resource.
The region faces major environmental challenges in the need to
address water scarcity; land degradation and desertification;
increasing fossil fuel-based energy production and use with
high inefficiencies in generation, distribution and end use;
and conservation and sustainable use of marine and coastal
resources. Climate change is becoming one of the regions main
problems with potentially adverse impacts on the economy and
human-well being. Water availability is projected to drop in most
of the region by 2050, mainly due to rising temperatures and
decreased precipitation (UNEP 2010; IPCC 2007). Much of the
coast, especially in the GCC countries and Yemen, is vulnerable
to sea level rise, which threatens large areas with inundation and
saltwater intrusion (AFED 2009).
The drivers of environmental change in the region are linked to
peace and security, demography and the state of the economy.
The international desire to secure valuable energy resources
and disputes including the current political conflict are playing
a major role in the ongoing environmental degradation in the
region. Environmental damage is escalating and the number of
displaced people is increasing, straining the environment and
contributing to the degradation of land and water resources
(UNEP 2010).
The total population of West Asia was estimated at 134 million
in 2010, or 1.94 per cent of the world population. Given an
annual growth rate of around 3 per cent, it is expected to reach
205 million by 2030 (UNPD 2008). Although fertility rates in the
region are declining, the momentum of population growth is still
high, partially due to cultural and religious beliefs and difficulties
hindering family planning (UNEP 2010). Urban communities
represent more than 90 per cent of the population of the GCC
countries, about 75 per cent of the Mashriq sub-region, and
31 per cent in Yemen. These high population growth rates
and urbanization together with current consumption patterns
compound the pressures on the regions limited land and water
resources. Generally speaking, the young and ever-increasing
population, as well as its mobility, represent new prospects
for development but may also exacerbate pressure on already
strained resources and ecosystems. More resources and services
are required to support the demand for jobs, housing, health,
water, energy and education; hence land use change is expected
to be a major issue in the region (UNEP 2010). Furthermore, an
influx of expatriates into the GCC countries only adds to pressure
Profits from the export of petroleum have made many countries in the
region dependent on a continued oil boom. Ryan Lindsay
on already strained and limited land and water resources

(UN ESCWA 2005).
Most of the West Asian countries economies depend on oil and
gas export revenues, especially GCC countries. In general, the
region holds 52.2 per cent of world oil reserves and 24.6 per
cent of world gas resources (OAPEC 2009). Oil and gas exports
along with petrochemicals are the main source of income in
GCC countries. In the Mashriq sub-region and Yemen, however,
agriculture is the main economic activity, contributing 30 per cent
of gross domestic product (GDP) and employing more than 40 per
cent of the workforce (UN ESCWA 2002), although there are also
some extractive industries in countries such as Jordan and Syria.
On a per-person basis, the GCC country with the highest GDP
is Qatar, earning US$77 000 per person in 2010 (UNDP 2010).
These high earnings are reflected in high per-person energy
consumption, with many of the GCC countries having carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions of more than 25 tonnes per person per
year in 2006 (UNDP 2010). Furthermore, the concentration of oil
and extractive industries in the region strains the environment
by polluting the atmosphere and degrading land and water
resources. New initiatives are, however, being implemented
to reduce the emissions and waste output associated with
development, for example at Masdar City in Abu Dhabi (Sgouridis
and Kennedy 2010).
The rapid development of the past 30 years has been the main
driver of continued degradation of the environment in West
Asia. In spite of the progress that has been achieved to meet
the MDGs, more effort is needed (UN DESA 2011). Governments
of the region are dealing with these challenges by creating
suitable conditions and empowered communities, with national
environmental policies having been developed in all West Asian
countries. The UN Conference on Environment and Development
in 1992 the Rio Earth Summit accelerated the setting-up and
strengthening of environment ministries and authorities, the
adoption of national strategies, financial resource mobilization
and the creation of partnerships.
West Asia
375
Figure 14.1 Priorities for action in West Asia
Land and soils
Freshwater
Environmental
governance
and
climate change
Energy
Oceans and seas
Environmental institutions have been accorded high priority and

status in all countries of West Asia (UNEP 2010), and a range of
institutions has been established to implement policies, enforce
laws and set standards and norms. However, these policies remain
sectoral in nature and participation of the major public groups
in environmental governance remains weak. There is no clear
policy for the integration of these groups in the environmental
governance process at either national or regional levels.
The environmental policies of West Asian countries rely mainly
on command-and-control mechanisms rather than on economic
instruments, though there have recently been various
initiatives to use market-based instruments to offer incentives
and change behaviour; these include water cost recovery
options and a road toll system.
Through a consultative process, the four most pressing
environmental challenges identified in West Asia are freshwater;
soil, land use, land degradation and desertification; energy; and
oceans and seas. Policies and policy considerations relating to
the cross-cutting issues of environmental governance and climate
change have been incorporated into the four priority areas as
appropriate (Figure 14.1).
POLICY APPRAISAL
Freshwater
The water sources of the West Asia region, estimated at

106.5 km3 (UNEP 2011), consist of renewable surface and
shallow groundwater resources supplemented by non-renewable
groundwater, desalinated water and treated wastewater. Surface
water resources are estimated at 86 km3 concentrated mainly
in the Mashriq sub-region, with 63 km3 available from mainly
shared rivers, the Euphrates, Tigris, Jordan, Yarmouk and Al
376
Kabeer al-Jounbi, and the remaining 13 km3 supplied by small

rivers, springs and intermittent wadi flow (UN ESWCA 2007b;
Abdulrazzak et al. 2002; Al-Rashed and Sherif 2000; Abdulrazzak
1995, 1994). The total renewable groundwater resources in the
region are estimated at 15.5 km3 (UNEP 2011). Iraq, Lebanon and
Syria rely on river flows supplemented by limited groundwater
resources, while Jordan, OPT, Yemen and the GCC countries rely
on renewable groundwater sources supplemented by extensive
non-renewable groundwater reserves and desalinated water
(UNEP 2007; Dabour 2006).
Desalinated water, which has become a dependable domestic
water supply source, contributes 3.3 km3 and meets 56 per cent
of the domestic water requirements of the GCC countries (Word
Bank 2005). The GCC is home to about 44 per cent of world
desalination capacity (AFED 2010; UN ESCWA 2007b). Around
2.3 km3 of treated waste and drainage water is used in urban
landscaping and feed-crop production together with 9 km3 of
untreated wastewater. Total water demand in the domestic,
industrial and agricultural sectors was estimated at 83.4 km3
in 1990, rising to 112.8 km3 in 2000, and is expected to reach
167.4 km3 in 2025 (UNEP 2011). High population growth and
urbanization rates, increased frequency of drought and extreme
events, accelerated economic activities and improved standards
of living have contributed to the widening gap between supply
and demand, and to higher levels of pollution and resource
depletion. The regions increasing water scarcity is evident in the
reduction in annual per-person renewable water resources from
1050 m3 in 1990, to 553 m3 in 2010; this is expected to fall to
205 m3 in 2025 compared to a world average of 7243 m3 per
person per year (CEDARE and AWC 2004).
Water scarcity due to climate change may reduce the available
renewable water resources by 1520 per cent in the next 50
years, leading to decreases in the flow of major rivers and
groundwater recharge rates, a higher frequency of flash floods
and droughts, and a loss of productivity in rain-fed areas (AFED
2009). The increase in temperature due to climate change is
expected to lead to increased water demand, especially for
irrigated agriculture; saltwater intrusion from sea level rise; a
decline in provisions for tourism, and changes in crop production
systems (AFED 2009).
Previous water policies that emphasized the development of
supply infrastructure made it possible for most of the countries to
be on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)
7c targets for water supply and sanitation. Regional coverage in
2008 reached 92 per cent for water supply and 81 per cent for
sanitation, with major achievements in urban areas (UN DESA
2011). Coverage in rural areas is lower, especially in Iraq, Syria,
Oman, OPT and Yemen. Higher coverage has been achieved in
the GCC countries than in the Mashriq sub-region, corresponding
to the availability of financial resources (Figure 14.2). Drinking
water coverage in West Asia ranges from 100 per cent in most of
the GCC countries to 52 per cent in Yemen. Between 1990 and
2008, the coverage for domestic water supply increased by 4 per
cent and for sanitation by 5 per cent. It is estimated that since
Figure 14.2 Domestic water supply and sanitation in West Asia, 19902015
Water supply coverage, %
100
80
60
40
20
Bahrain
1990
Kuwait
2005
Oman
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
United Arab
Emirates
Yemen
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
OPT
Syria
2015 (estimate)
Source: CEDARE and AWC 2004
Sanitation coverage, %
100
80
60
40
20
Bahrain
1990
Kuwait
2005
Oman
Qatar
Saudi
Arabia
United Arab
Emirates
Yemen
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
OPT
Syria
2015 (estimate)
Source: CEDARE and AWC 2004
West Asia
377
1990, 4749 million people have gained access to a drinking

water supply and 4243 million to sanitation (UN DESA 2011).
Most countries are expected to meet the MDG targets in 2015,
with the exception of Yemen and OPT. Despite the substantial
progress towards MDG 7c, more than 41000 people have died
during the period from 1990 to 2008 because of poor access to
safe water supplies and inadequate sanitation facilities.
Water policies implemented during 19602000 as part of annual
or five-year development plans addressed water scarcity by
making use of supplies from major rivers, shallow and deep
groundwater and desalination. Services were expanded to
improve water supply and sanitation coverage, especially in
urban areas, and measures were taken to manage demand,
including water-saving technology, leak detection and public
education, and expansion of irrigation schemes to enhance selfsufficiency in certain commodity food crops.
Since 2000, with the regions water resources especially
renewable resources exploited to the limit of capacity,
governments have been paying more attention to developing
policies that emphasize comprehensive planning, with longer
horizons in line with the integrated water resources management
approach called for in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
(WSSD 2002). This takes into account the water deficit of more
than 50 km3 estimated for 2025. Jordan, OPT and Yemen, and
more recently United Arab Emirates have already formulated
their integrated management plans and begun implementation
with varying degrees of success. Oman and Saudi Arabia are in
the process of finalizing their plans while others have established

timelines (AFED 2010).
The regions water policy priorities should focus on three key
objectives: comprehensive planning within the framework
of integrated water resources management; supply-demand
management measures to reduce the water deficit and increase
water-use efficiency; and management of agricultural water
consumption. Indicators to measure progress on water supply
and sanitation are:
annual per-person water consumption from renewable water
sources or water sustainability as a measure of scarcity
and depletion;
population with access to safe water supply and sanitation
as a measure of service coverage and proximity to the MDG
target; and
water losses from the irrigation and domestic water
distribution systems as a measure of water use efficiency.
Planning within an integrated approach
Effective policy calls for planning in line with the principles of
integrated water resources management. Current efforts have
been confined to the formulation of water policies within national
development plans and focused on supply development and
limited demand management practices (UN ESCWA 2001). For
some countries, the availability of financial resources has been
considered a means of addressing the problem.
The planning process should be appropriate to the social,
economic and cultural conditions of the region while considering
the complexity of the problem: increasing and competing water
demands; water governance issues; adaptive capacity in case of
uncertain water availability and extreme events; changing socioeconomic development patterns including demographic trends
and changing consumption patterns; food security and the volatile
international food market; tension over shared water sources both
for rivers and aquifers shared between countries of the region as
well as other neighbouring countries; and climate change impacts.
Coordinated and integrated planning within and across water
and water-related sectors promotes the balance of supply with
demand. The objective is to achieve resource sustainability,
efficiency and protection; to manage risks including climate
change impacts; and to manage disputed shared sources.
Additional benefits include increased safe water supply and
sanitation coverage, especially for the poor; health benefits
related to water quality; compliance and enforcement of
legislation; information; and improved cooperation and trust
in working on shared resources. The region should build on
experience of integrated water management in Jordan, OPT and
Yemen and more recently in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates to update future plans and share experience with
other countries (World Bank 2009).
Jordans integrated water management plan considers all water

resources in the Lower Jordan Valley, including groundwater,
wastewater, saline water and floodwater. Miguel Nicolaevsky/iStock
378
Among the key limitations are a lack of adequate and trained

technical and managerial capacity to accommodate the highly
complex integrated water resources planning process, set well
defined objectives, formulate and implement multi-objective

measures, and commit the necessary financial and human
resources to strengthen governance issues. Difficulties lie in
establishing the free dissemination of information and the
coordination of different data sources; reliable assessment
resources; and identifying water requirements during a period of
dynamic socio-economic development and environmental change.
For transboundary resources, there are conflicting national
interests in forging equitable sharing agreements. All these
issues can be addressed through integrated water resources
management, supported by strong commitment on the part of
decision makers to place water high on the political agenda.
The integrated water resources management framework is not
an option but an essential requirement if water management
is to be enhanced in the region. The experience gained from
its formulation and implementation in Jordan and OPT can
inform the planning process of the Mashriq sub-region, while
Yemens plan (Box 14.1) can inform that of the GCC countries,
which share similar environmental and social conditions. In
addition, documentation of lessons learned through the practical
implementation of management measures could help to build
national capacity for updating any existing integrated water
management plans.
In terms of environmental governance, certain enabling
conditions are necessary for the success of the integrated
approach. Decision makers and stakeholders must fully
understand the relevant policy statements and must define
the objectives and mandate of the water and water-related
sectors; enable the free dissemination of information; commit
the necessary financial and adequately trained human
resources; increase reliance on national expertise; adopt
a community-based management approach; and enforce
coordination mechanisms. This requires comprehensive and
enforced legislation.
Supply-demand management to reduce water deficits

On the supply side, appropriate measures include the
development of renewable groundwater within sustainable
yields; augmentation from water desalination; reuse of
adequately treated wastewater; rainwater management and
harvesting; artificial groundwater recharge; flood control
structures; and a limit on the mining of non-renewable
groundwater. Demand measures include economic mechanisms
such as partial cost recovery; socially acceptable tariffs;
subsidies and incentives for improving water-use efficiency,
especially in the irrigation sector; modification of building codes
for water saving; leakage control; decentralization of water
utilities; groundwater metering; and effective coordination of
international funds supplemented by public awareness. This is
in addition to supporting non-governmental organizations and
stakeholder participation.
Limited management measures have been implemented in
Jordan, OPT, Yemen, and recently Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates, mainly through water-saving technology, public
education and leak detection in large cities, and incentives such
as subsidies and loans.
Expected benefits include coordination in balancing water
supply through rational utilization of all sources, with demand
reductions achieved within 25 years. Such rationalization
includes the use of renewable and non-renewable sources
within their sustainable yields; increasing domestic supply
from desalination; reusing adequately treated wastewater;
establishing strategic groundwater reserves in the Arabian
Peninsula sub-region and Jordan; and developing rainfall
harvesting infrastructures in Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Demand
management measures aim to reduce water losses from
distribution systems from the present levels to 520 per cent
of the non-renewable resources, especially in the irrigation
Box 14.1 Yemens integrated water resources management plan

Yemens progress on water management was supported
by an investment plan and the prior establishment
of a comprehensive legislative framework. Supply
and demand objectives have to a certain extent been
achieved, aided by assessment of the water supply
along with supply-and-demand management projects
in the domestic and irrigation sectors. The supply side
includes dams for flood control and recharge, control of
groundwater withdrawal in certain areas, reuse of treated
wastewater, and rainwater harvesting; while the demand
side includes such management tools as the renovation
of terraces, decentralization of water utilities, appropriate
domestic tariffs, subsidies to improve water-use efficiency
in the irrigation sector, incentives, and the creation of
water user associations in coordination with the Ministry
of Agriculture. Evaluation of climate change impacts was

also carried out.
The process involved academics, UN agencies and nongovernmental organizations, in addition to coordination
of the international funding agencies and identifying the
necessary financial and human resources. Benefits have
included improved planning at basin level, increased
investment in wastewater treatment, increased service
coverage in the cities of Sanaa, Aden, Taiz, and Hudadiah,
rationalizing the use of groundwater resources especially
in the Sanaa basin, and enforcing tariff collection. The
principal constraints have been under-commitment of
financial and human resources and a lack of public-private
sector partnerships (CEDAR and AWC 2004).
West Asia
379
sector. Socially acceptable economic tools include gradual cost

recovery, and loans and incentives to reduce consumption.
Measures also include administrative steps to decentralize
functions, change building codes and regulations, encourage
stakeholder participation and establish modern agricultural
practices, including hydroponics and irrigation systems. These
can lead to changes in behaviour and consumption patterns,
reduced pollution and depletion especially of non-renewable
and shared sources, and improved water productivity, and can
contribute to meeting the MDG goals.
The main challenge is to shift water from being heavily regulated
and subsidized, which is largely dictated by a strong agricultural
lobby, into the realm of partially priced goods and services. In
most countries of the region, subsidy policies have contributed
to wasteful water consumption, though this is now changing in
Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Challenges also lie in overcoming
the reluctance to reuse treated wastewater, providing adequate
financial sources in the Mashriq sub-region, and low capacity
for integrated and comprehensive planning, especially in the
Arabian Peninsula sub-region (AFED 2010). Further, there is
reluctance to take appropriate action to reduce the power of the
agriculture lobby.
Similar economic and social characteristics across the region
provide opportunities to share many supply-and-demand
management experiences. Experience of desalination in the
GCC countries can be shared with the Mashriq sub-region
while taking full consideration of the environmental impacts,
especially Jordan, the OPT and Yemen, while measures such
as water storage and rainwater harvesting infrastructure are
replicable in most of the countries. Other successes include
Desalination remains the most practical way of meeting rising demand for
water in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Tanuki Photography
380
Box 14.2 Leak detection and repair of the distribution

system in Bahrain
Water distribution leakage is in the range of 3050 per
cent in certain areas in Bahrain, resulting in the loss of
costly desalinated water, contamination with wastewater
and changes in the water table that can damage urban
infrastructure. Bahrains management measures achieved a
515 per cent reduction in leakage, saving 25 million m3 of
desalinated water and reducing costs by US$1825 million
in 2000 (World Bank 2008). Improvements were seen in
water supply reliability and coverage, enhanced technical
and managerial staff capacity, and reduced impacts
from a high water table such as nuisance odours, soil
contamination and damage to urban buildings and roads.
In addition, the measures helped in-house water auditing,
and increased public awareness and social responsibility for
conservation of an already limited resource. Such demand
management measures could be replicated in many big
cities in the region.
water-saving technologies, leak detection and repair, public

awareness campaigns and groundwater metering introduced,
for example, in Bahrain (Box 14.2), Jordan, Saudi Arabia and
Syria and decentralization of water utilities. In addition, water
user associations in Jordan (the Local Farmers Association, for
example), Oman and Yemen can be replicated in all countries.
Enabling conditions require comprehensive water sector
reform and include good governance conducive to inter- and
cross-sectoral coordination; adequate investment; financial
transparency and accountability; public acceptance of cost
recovery tools with socially acceptable tariffs; and application
of the polluter-pays principle. Other enabling conditions include
commitment to the right to water; ensuring that stakeholders
have an active role in decision making; a free flow of information;
separation of service providers and regulatory functions; and
effective capacity-building programmes.
Management of agricultural water consumption
The agricultural sector, which uses more than 85 per cent of the
regions water, has been oriented towards food self-sufficiency
in certain commodities and overall food security in light of
increasing food prices, rural development and rising incomes.
In Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Yemen, the sector employs
3040 per cent of the domestic population, while in the GCC
countries it depends on foreign labour (UNEP 2010). Agricultural
intensification has accelerated groundwater depletion, especially
in the Arabian Peninsula, as well as increased agro-pollution
and soil salinity. The sector is characterized by low irrigation
efficiency of 3045 per cent and the cultivation of particularly
water-thirsty crops, resulting in low water productivity (AOAD
2009). Water scarcity and pollution can be alleviated by
increasing the use of adequately treated wastewater; rainwater
harvesting on mountain terraces; modern agricultural and

irrigation systems; and subsidies, incentives and soft loans to
promote the application of water-saving technologies. Water
sustainability can also be enhanced by groundwater metering,
partial cost-recovery tariffs, application of the virtual water
concept, increasing the number of water user associations,
market integration between countries, and making use of World
Trade Organization (WTO) and other trade agreements.
The benefits of integrated management to the agricultural sector
include enhanced water-use efficiency of 1530 per cent above
the current level, resulting in substantial water savings and
increasing the water available to meet domestic demand and
achieve the MDG targets (UN DESA 2011). Improving water-use
efficiency will increase water productivity and farmer income,
and conserve non-renewable groundwater for future generations.
The current system of subsidies and soft loans available for
modern agricultural and irrigation systems provides an effective
economic tool to reduce water consumption and prevent
groundwater depletion and pollution from agrochemicals.
The current secondary and tertiary level wastewater treatment
facilities, especially in GCC countries, provide water suitable for
a number of crops (UNEP 2010). However, more attention should
be given to the monitoring and enforcement of water-saving
technologies to reach a defined level of efficiency and achieve
appropriate water treatment standards.
Limited commitment to providing the necessary financial
resources to implement water-saving irrigation technologies and
assess climate change will impact water availability, agricultural
productivity and biodiversity. Problems include difficulties in
convincing farmers to shift to modern irrigation techniques and
use treated wastewater, and in developing adequate human
resources to monitor compliance with water treatment standards,
along with weak marketing strategies and the impact of foreign
labour. Other challenges include overcoming reluctance to
move away from the concept of irrigation water as free or

heavily subsidized, especially groundwater, to acceptance of
cost recovery and pricing of water allocations. There is a need
for significant investment in wastewater treatment, awareness
campaigns, modernized irrigation and agricultural systems, and
the establishment of user associations.
Agricultural policies have to be compatible, coordinated and
integrated with broader water policies. Investment is required for
wastewater facilities to increase reuse volumes, and for subsidies
and loans to increase take-up of water-saving technologies.
Enabling conditions must be established for setting efficiency
rate targets of 75 per cent for irrigation, and for the gradual
phase-out of water-thirsty and low cash-value crops in favour of
importing crops (the virtual water concept). Growing wheat, for
example, requires large amounts of water. By importing wheat
and concentrating on crops that require less water, a country can
acquire virtual water and use existing resources more efficiently.
Additional measures include limiting the export of green animal
feed, increasing the number of water user associations and
taking advantage of WTO and bilateral agreements between Arab
countries (UNEP 2010).
Similarities in the irrigation supply, consumption practices
and arid environment of most countries provide opportunities
to share success stories as well as market and trade
complementarities, and take advantage of possibilities for
integration at the regional or sub-regional level. The success of
large agricultural companies in Saudi Arabia could, for example,
help some countries of the Mashriq sub-region to expand their
activities and increase water productivity. Use of the virtual
water concept and intra-region agricultural policies provide an
opportunity for cooperation in agricultural production based on
comparative advantage, while conserving local water resources
for future generations (Box 14.3).
Box 14.3 Irrigation management in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabias agricultural sector is responsible for more than
85 per cent of the countrys water consumption, especially
from non-renewable and sometimes shared groundwater
resources. During 20052007, renewable water resources
of 2.5 million m3 were supplemented with 16.2 million m3
from non-renewable groundwater sources to satisfy irrigation
demands. Even though the 2010 total demand of 18.7 million
m3 is expected to decrease to 12 million m3 in 2025, the gap
between the total irrigation demand and the supply from
renewable water sources will still be considerable.
The government recently implemented a number of measures
to limit irrigated food production by decreasing the subsidy on
diesel fuel and gradually reducing the purchase of local wheat. In
2009, it set a target to eliminate wheat production over an eight-
year period, and at the same time increased incentives and loans
for modern irrigation systems, provided subsidies for animal
feed imports while banning the export of fodder, and established
strategic food reserves (AFED 2010). Further measures have been
implemented to freeze the amount of land used for agriculture;
promote cultivation under glass; improve the coordination of the
agricultural sector with other relevant policies; and encourage
agricultural investment abroad by forming committees and
setting aside funds to encourage the private sector. These
measures have contributed to reducing the amount of irrigated
land, the production of wheat and groundwater mining, and
increased interest in the reuse of treated water (Hussain et al.
2010). Future action includes evaluation of irrigation costrecovery options, groundwater metering and setting limits on
water allocation to the various sectors.
West Asia
381
Fields in Halabiye, Syria, where scientists are working with farmers to breed more robust crops. Joel Carillet/iStock
Soil, land use, land degradation and desertification
Most of West Asia is characterized by patchy vegetation, sandy

soils and arid to hyper-arid conditions. Drylands make up 64
per cent of the total area of 4 million km2 (Abahussain et al.
2002; Al Kassas 1999). Rangelands fall into the largest land-use
category, with lands cultivated with annual and permanent crops
representing 4.8 per cent, and forests 1.4 per cent (FAOSTAT
2008; AOAD 2007). High and sustained population growth and
urbanization rates coupled with rising rates of consumption
increase the pressure on limited land resources.
The biophysical characteristics of the region, combined with
population growth and socio-economic policies, are the main
drivers of land degradation and desertification, one of the
main problems facing West Asia. Proximate causes include
intensification of crop and livestock production and pastoral
activities; development of human settlements and infrastructure;
wars; policies that subsidize unsustainable practices such as
irrigation with fossil or saline water; overuse of agrochemicals;
overstocking of livestock; and lack of appropriate integrated waterland-use planning and management. All these developments have
resulted in reduced ecosystem products and services, widespread
desertification and land degradation including biodiversity loss,
which, in turn, affects human well-being (ACSAD et al. 2004).
The impacts of land degradation have been most serious in
the countries where the share of agriculture in gross domestic
product (GDP) is high, such as Lebanon, Syria and Yemen
(UNEP 2010), and are further exacerbated by frequent droughts
and climate change. Policies to combat land degradation
and desertification must take into consideration the regions
multiple challenges of sustained population growth, rapid
urbanization rates, increasing demand for natural resources,
a declining natural resource base, varying rates of economic
growth and increasing incidence of poverty in communities that
382
depend mainly on land resources. A lack of financial resources,

appropriate technologies and institutional capacities, as well as
limited stakeholder and civil society participation must also be
taken into account (SRAP 2007).
Indicators for measuring the progress of selected land-use
policies include:
the proportion of land affected by desertification (erosion and
salinization);
the proportion of land that falls into nationally protected
areas and forest;
livestock numbers relative to the carrying capacity of
rangelands;
land-use change, including the proportion of productive area
lost to urbanization;
the proportion of land under modern irrigation; and
levels of productivity (tonnes per hectare) and production
(tonnes per year).
Successful policy options that show potential to accelerate the
achievement of internationally agreed goals can be addressed as
three clusters:
developing rangelands and combating land degradation;
achieving food security and cropland rehabilitation; and
adopting integrated policies for improving land and water use
with local community participation.
Developing rangelands and combating land degradation
Policies to develop national and regional rangelands help
to improve their management by prohibiting cultivation in
designated areas while protecting and rehabilitating degraded
rangelands (Box 14.4) (Kattach 2008).
The benefits include the protection, conservation, sustainability
and improvement of natural vegetation productivity and diversity.
Box 14.4 Protection and rehabilitation of

rangelands in Syria
The main objective of Syrias policy is to conserve vegetation
density, productivity and biological diversity, improve the
livelihoods of local communities, reduce dust and sand
storms, and increase carbon sequestration. The aim is to
protect and rehabilitate degraded areas in the Al-Bishri
rangeland of the Syrian steppe. Implementation involves
local community participation in selecting degraded areas,
seeding and planting, and the control and reduction of
grazing pressure through collaboration between local
herders and animal-fattening cooperatives. After three
years of rehabilitation and protection, forage production
increased from 90 kg to 320 kg per hectare per year and bare
soil decreased from 91 to 32 per cent. The diversity of plants
increased from 27 species from 23 genera and 13 families
to 83 species from 55 genera and 17 families, and the
density of edible shrubs increased from 0.02 to 4 plants
per m2 (Kattach 2008). In the long term, vegetation density,
productivity and diversity, and carbon sequestration are
expected to increase to optimum levels, alongside the
prevention of dust and sand storms. This is in addition to
providing more forage for livestock, reducing the need for
feed and the cost of meat production.
In addition, improved rangelands help to prevent soil erosion,

conserve water, increase carbon sequestration, reduce both the
frequency and magnitude of dust and sand storms, and provide
links to global support for combating desertification. Limitations
include reduced open grazing areas for herders, competition with
cropping, lower direct financial returns to herders and increasing
risk of conflict with local communities.
These policies can be replicated and scaled up for implementation
in similar degraded rangelands at regional and global levels.
Achieving food security and cropland rehabilitation

Food security has continued to be the main concern of national
governments in the region since the concept was introduced
in the 1980s. The world food crisis in 2007, accompanied by
soaring food prices, revitalized the need and desire of some
countries to become self-sufficient in certain agricultural
commodities, and especially to restrict the export of cereals and
livestock feed (AOAD 2009). As a result, national agricultural
policies were revised to increase agricultural production, and
government control of farming systems was relaxed in favour of
decentralization. Avenues for offering incentives in the form of
price controls, tax breaks and reductions, cereal and animal feed
export restrictions, easy loans, and the introduction of efficient
techniques in reclamation and irrigation were explored. This is in
addition to developing adaptation policies to climate change such
as using saline water for agricultural production, developing new
local crop varieties tolerant of aridity and drought conditions, and
rehabilitating rainwater harvesting systems (Box 14.5).
After introducing a series of incentive measures, benefits have
included relative food security with regard to certain commodities,
which in turn reduced dependency on food imports and helped to
alleviate poverty and hunger.
The limitations to agricultural practices such as flood irrigation
have included depletion of water resources in a region that is
already water-short. Overuse of aquifers has led groundwater to
suffer from saltwater intrusion in coastal regions, and salination
has rendered large areas of agricultural land useless and
converted landscapes into desert (Hussain et al. 2010). However,
the governments of the region are left with no choice but to reclaim
new areas and salinated fields, and re-cultivate them in order to
meet the ever-increasing demands for food. Drought and climate
change are working against achieving food security, as persistent
drought has continued to affect the region for the past few years.
Policies to improve agricultural productivity are being
replicated with modifications to suit each countrys economic
and social conditions.
Box 14.5 Sustainable agricultural development in Bahrain

The National Strategy for Sustainable Agricultural Development
aims to upgrade the agricultural sector in Bahrain. It includes
goals and programmes that contribute to agricultural growth
and preserve agricultural heritage. The main objectives of the
strategy include achieving relative food security, conserving
natural resources, protecting agricultural land, using modern
technologies to encourage agricultural investment, making
the agricultural sector economically efficient, contributing to
the needs of citizens and residents for food, and supporting
small farmers (Ministry of Municipalities Affairs and Land
Use Planning 2010). To attain the strategys objectives,
communication and cooperation were enhanced between
the various parties involved in the countrys agricultural

sector. In addition, the strategy concentrates on involving
diverse communities while paying special attention to
farmers as central to agricultural development.
Benefits of the strategy include the modernization of
production systems, conservation of water and land,
increased agricultural productivity, relative food security,
reduced groundwater consumption, increased vegetation
cover including palm trees, a boost to agricultural trade,
promotion of the national economy and a reduction in
unemployment.
West Asia
383
In order to create enabling conditions, governments of the region

eased access to finance and technical services. Agricultural
research and extension were strengthened to boost productivity
and conserve water and land resources, thus promoting good
agricultural practices. New crop varieties suited to drought
conditions were introduced as well as new cultivation methods.
Enabling conditions for rangeland protection policies in West
Asia have been jointly implemented by various institutions, with
assistance from developed countries and research centres. The
success of land degradation control depends on the presence of
a favourable framework, including organizational, institutional,
legal and political structures and processes that promote
programme planning and implementation. This included analysis
of the factors influencing institutional response capacity, and
from there the development of recommendations for capacity
building and participatory modalities (UN ESCWA 2007a).
Integrated policies for improving land and water use with local
community participation
The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC 2007) indicates that the problem of land degradation and
desertification prevalent in West Asia will be exacerbated by
climate change. The expected increase in temperature, decline
in precipitation, and greater intensity and frequency of droughts
and dust storms will impact rangelands and rain-fed cropland and
contribute to land deterioration, biodiversity loss and the spread
and intensification of desertification.
Mindful of this, Jordans policies deal with the strategic
improvement of rain-fed agriculture and the prevention of land
degradation and desertification. Achieving these objectives
involves long-term mainstreaming of integrated strategies
for improving productivity; rehabilitating, conserving and
sustaining land and water resources; combating desertification;
and mitigating the impacts of drought and climate change.
Tomato crops by the Dead Sea. Here, drip irrigation uses nearly 50 per cent
less water than traditional irrigation. Ricardo De Mattos
384
Implementing these strategies is more effective with the

participation of local traditional resource users, recognizing the
interrelationship between these and other environmental issues
at the local, national, regional and global levels (Box 14.6).
The benefits of these policies are the protection, conservation,
sustainability and optimization of natural resource productivity
and the potential for diversifying income sources with links
to global support for improving farmers livelihoods. Factors
that determine success include soil and water conservation,
irrigation, forestry, livestock, range management and communitybased resource management, enhanced technical capacity
of local managers and local institution building. Indicators of
success include the long-term rehabilitation of degraded lands,
halting of desertification processes and increased resilience
to climate change, while short-term benefits include increased
agricultural productivity, improvements in individual and family
incomes, greater drought resistance of rural production systems
and protection of biodiversity (UN ESCWA 2007a).
In semi-arid areas the implementation of policies with an
emphasis on agricultural production leads to a reduction in the
rangeland available for livestock grazing. In many countries most
of the farmers are also livestock owners and their herds graze
on lands with low productivity and on crop residues. Farming
practices in these areas return very few nutrients and organic
matter to the soil and provide little protection from wind erosion.
Livestock grazing of virtually all crop residues is particularly
problematic (UN ESCWA 2007a). Policy limitations also include
the continuous out-migration of the younger members of rural
families, creating local labour shortages.
In many countries of the region successful programmes tend
to emphasize the significance of comprehensiveness and
integration. An excellent policy in one country does not usually
stand alone and, as such, cannot easily be transferred or
successfully replicated in its original form in a new location
(UN ESCWA 2007a). New circumstances, new management
and various interdependent problems such as poor and low
implementation capacities, lack of financial resources and
marginalized local stakeholders, can make many successful
programmes lose their effectiveness under replication.
The evaluation and assessment of successful policies have
demonstrated that the alleviation of land degradation depends
not only on the motivation of individual stakeholders, but also on
the creation of enabling conditions for effective collective action
by the whole community, and this makes implementation of
such policies more challenging. The development of appropriate
policy frameworks and incentive structures is key to inducing
sustainable management of natural resources. Environmental
governance should be incorporated in the activities of social,
economic and administrative institutions, with environmental
and land-use policies central to the coordination and
management of the various sectors of the national economy.
Governance encourages the use and application of scientific
data and information for the sustainable development of natural
resources. On a larger scale, it fosters an understanding of the
Box 14.6 Integrated agricultural management in Al-Karak, Jordan

The main objectives of Jordans policy were to arrest land
degradation, optimize the long-term productive capacity of land
and water resources, improve the income of vulnerable farmers,
especially women, with their active participation, safeguard
and upgrade the productive potential of natural resources and
enhance returns, prevent soil degradation, restore soil fertility,
promote efficient use of soil and water, strengthen the capacity
of local technical and managerial staff, and meet the needs
of local farmers. To achieve these objectives, the programme
provides technical and financial support aimed at:
building soil and water conservation structures and
improving agricultural production;
enhancing sustainable land and water management
practices;
promoting rural microfinance to support on- and off-farm
activities;
tree planting;
building cisterns and dams for water harvesting;
improving animal husbandry;
maintaining springs and irrigation canals; and
constructing small reservoirs, known as hafira, to retain
run-off for later use.
main economic, social and environmental issues among many

stakeholders, helping to achieve a balance between governance
needs and governance capacity (UN ESCWA 2007a).
Local communities have benefited from the newly vibrant

agricultural sector through processing local products and
having better access to financial services. Some 5 350
households have benefited from the various soil and water
conservation measures, while spring protection and/or
rehabilitation programmes alone having benefited about
1 000 households (Ministry of Water and Irrigation 2008).
The improved agricultural extension services are estimated
to have reached about 22 300 households, and the
provision of loans and support for developing alternative
income-generating activities has benefited more than
5 000 women and landless farmers (UN ESCWA 2007a).
These investments in soil and water conservation have
reduced and will continue to reduce the degradation of the
fragile ecosystems in the project area. They will also improve
vegetative cover, reduce run-off and soil loss, improve soil
fertility, and enhance sustainable use of the natural resource
base. The project has raised awareness about the impacts of
land degradation and desertification while improving farmers
livelihoods, diversifying income sources, and alleviating both
poverty and out-migration.
Figure 14.3. Primary energy consumption in West

Asia, 20042008
Energy
Energy resources
West Asia is one of the major players in the global energy market,
having 52.2 per cent of world oil reserves and 24.6 per cent of
world gas resources (OAPEC 2009). The region produces nearly
17.3 million barrels of oil a day, accounting for 27.6 per cent
of world oil exports. Rapid economic development, population
growth, urbanization, and changes in standards of living in West
Asian countries have led to increases in energy demand (Figure
14.3) (IEA World Energy Agency 2010). Despite rich renewable
resources, the energy sector is characterized by heavy reliance
on fossil fuels. In addition, the regional economy is still largely
dependent on fossil fuels to fulfill increasing energy demands.
The use of fossil fuels is always accompanied by considerable
environmental impacts including deteriorating local air quality
and rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,
contributing to climate change.
Energy consumption rose steadily in most of West Asia
between 2004 and 2008, increasing by some 20 per cent
over the period (Ruble and Nader 2011). But with accelerating
rates of development and rapid urbanization in the majority
of the region, energy demand is now increasing drastically
in all sectors, including electric power production, domestic
energy use and transport. In view of energy security and safety
Petajoules
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
2004
2005
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Iraq
2006
Kuwait
Qatar
Syria
2007
Jordan
Bahrain
Oman
2008
Yemen
Lebanon
OPT
Source: IEA 2010
West Asia
385
issues, the sharp increase in oil and gas prices, climate change
and environmental considerations, as well as technological
advances, energy planning in several countries is now addressing
more decentralized energy generation options. The region is
characterized by rich renewable resources including solar, wind,
geothermal and, to some extent, biomass, and over the past
decade has been shifting its policies towards diversification
of energy sources and placed energy efficiency and renewable
technologies high on national policy agendas. Some examples
of renewable energy initiatives include Jordans objective to
generate as much as 7 per cent of its energy from renewable
sources by 2015 and 10 per cent by 2020, while solar capacity
is expected to reach 300600 megawatts over the same period;
Abu Dhabis aim of generating up to 7 per cent of its energy
from renewable sources, with planned investments reaching
US$22billion; Syrias intention to generate 7.5 per cent of
its electrical energy from renewable resources by 2020; and
Lebanons target for renewable energy of 10 per cent of total
energy supply by 2013 and 12 per cent by 2020 while also
aiming to reduce energy consumption by 6 per cent by the 2013
(Ruble and Nader 2011; Verdeil 2008).
Successful energy policies in the countries of West Asia cluster
around two main areas:
energy efficiency in the building sector including systems for
space heating and cooling, and measures for promoting the
use of renewable energy resources; and
energy generation mixes and targets for clean energy
production, which require governmental commitment and
advanced legislation.
Abu Dhabis US$600-million solar power plant, expected to be

complete in 2012, will be one of the largest concentrated solar power
plants in the world. Fernando Alonso Herrero
386
Indicators for measuring the progress of the selected energy

policies are:
energy savings in percentage terms or cost terms, reduced air
conditioning system sizes and impacts on local markets;
total surface area of solar water heaters installed (market
penetration); and
diversification of energy sources as part of countries plans, and
renewable energy capacity as a proportion of total capacity.
Policies that have been shown to be effective in reducing energy
consumption with the participation of the local community
address the energy performance of buildings and their cooling
and water systems (Hajiah 2010; Maheshwari and Al-Murad
2001), promote renewable energy resources (Shahin 2010;
Houri 2006; Kablan 2004) and encourage diversification of
energy supply options (Ruble and Nader 2011; Hainoun et al.
2010; Reiche 2010). These policies may have high potential for
replication in countries with similar climate or socio-economic
characteristics and similar regulations to those of West Asia.
Regional policy interventions for improving buildings
energy performance and implementing renewable energy
enhancements such as water heating are directly linked to policy
formulation regarding population growth, urbanization, and
associated economic activities and technological affordability.
Further policies that are of equal importance, but have only
recently been formulated, address public transport, car fleet age
and codes for fuel use.
Building and systems energy performance
Energy efficiency in the building sector has been a primary
national target for West Asian countries, and thermal guidelines
and codes for buildings have been developed and implemented
in most of the region (Ali et al. 2008; Alnaser et al. 2008; Aftab
and Elhadidy 2002). Al-Ajlan et al. (2006) reported that improving
the efficiency of Saudi Arabias air-conditioning alone provided
a return on investment equivalent to 400500megawatts per
year of generating capacity, a saving of up to US$250 million
per year. The countries energy performance codes for buildings
focused on solutions to improve heating and cooling loads and
have, to some extent, addressed the use of efficient systems and
processes for heating/cooling and lighting.
More recent codes tackle green building design and performance.
Hybrid air-conditioning, for example, has high potential
for saving energy either through optimized operation or by
integrating renewable energy sources into their function (Farraj
et al. 2010; Fasiuddin et al. 2010; Ghaddar et al. 2010; Ghali et
al. 2008). Building code development has reached an advanced
stage, and is now considering smart systems and green designs
that meet the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Airconditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) goal of zero-energy building in
the coming decade. The development of carbon-neutral Masdar
City in Abu Dhabi is a process of transforming oil wealth into
renewable energy leadership, with the long-term goal of a
transition from a 20th century, carbon-based economy into a
21st century sustainable economy (Reiche 2010).
The introduction of green building codes in some West

Asian countries has been successful in reducing electricity
consumption in buildings through guiding the selection of
building materials and glazing choices, and setting upper limits
on lighting intensity and cooling/heating (Al-Temeemi 1995;
Kellow 1989). The success of this policy has been due to multiple
factors including:
a rigorous technical methodology for developing a building
code responsive to a countrys climate and the availability of
building materials;
a short payback period for several of the proposed energy
conservation measures;
the ability to ensure compliance through setting upper limits
on the capacity of the electric supply/meter to the building
unit;
the ability to enforce building codes in the public and
commercial sectors;
awareness and understanding among the professional
community of best practices to improve building
performance; and
flexibility and room for innovation in the selection and
introduction of new energy conservation measures and
practices that provide the contractor, owner and operator of
the building with choice (Maheshwari and Al-Murad 2001).
The significance of such concepts and products is evident in
their incorporation in international standards for green buildings
such as the Building Research Establishment Environmental
Assessment Method (BREEAM) and Leadership in Energy
and Environmental Design (LEED), which use environmental
assessment methods and rating systems.
The development of thermal codes and ratings enables
countries to reduce operational energy consumption for heating,
ventilation, air-conditioning (HVAC) and lighting over a buildings
life cycle, thus reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. By
adopting green building envelopes that provide high insulation
and air tightness, energy savings of 30 per cent and higher have
been achieved in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait, among others
(Hajiah 2010; Ministry of Public Work and Housing 2009a,

2009b; Alnaser et al. 2008; Maheshwari and Al-Murad 2001).
The introduction of building thermal codes and ratings can be
implemented through limiting the electric power supply capacity
to a building, which forces designers and contractors to follow
the code. Energy conservation in buildings extends beyond
the envelope to include cooling systems, solar water-heating
systems and energy-efficient appliances. It also calls for the
greater availability of green market products and technologies
associated with building services and materials.
The main challenges hampering the implementation of new
building codes include higher capital costs, the need for short
and long-term planning, low skill levels and both financial and
strategic inadequacy. The economic feasibility of adopting
building codes is well established and the costs of some envelope
measures have been reduced by the use of local materials, while
others such as double glazing remain expensive. Countries with
moderate climates such as Lebanon and Syria can use other less
expensive cooling methods such as fans and evaporative coolers.
Not all GCC countries have implemented building codes, although
they can afford them. Nonetheless, the market is open for transfer
of green designs and services for buildings.
GCC countries are coordinating their energy regulations and
encouraging the exchange of case studies of successful
sustainable buildings. Some countries with moderate climates
in the Mediterranean, Jordan, for example, have implemented a
code or, like Lebanon, are considering guidelines while providing
incentives through reduced building fees for those following
the code (Chedid and Ghajar 2004). The Kuwait Energy Code for
buildings is a good example that could be replicated not only by
GCC countries with similar climatic conditions and a need for airconditioning around the year, but also for West Asian countries
facing the problem of drastic increases in energy demand
(Box 14.7) (Hajiah 2010; Maheshwari and Al-Murad 2001). In
addition, thermal insulation according to the Syrian Thermal
Insulation Code is mandatory for new buildings in Syria (Ministry
of Electricity 2007a). With climate change resulting in warmer
Box 14.7 Energy conservation in buildings in Kuwait

Demand for electrical power In Kuwait has progressively
increased, particularly in the past two decades. Generated
capacity was about 11 000 megawatts in 2009, and this is
expected to rise to about 22 000 megawatts in 2020 (Hajiah
2010). As all electricity generation depends on fossil fuel
resources, power plants consume about 55 per cent of Kuwaits
total primary energy. In addition, 85 per cent of electrical peak
power and 60 per cent of the countrys total annual output is
used for air-conditioning and lighting in buildings.
The Ministry of Energy in Kuwait launched its energy code
for buildings in 1983 with a set of mandatory standards and
regulations to enhance energy conservation and decrease the

progressive negative impacts on the climate (Hajiah 2010;
Maheshwari and Al-Murad 2001). The main objectives of the
building code, which is applied to new and retrofitted airconditioned buildings, are to decrease the capacity of airconditioning systems and to reduce the peak power demand by
introducing smaller units.
Table 14.1 shows the energy savings and peak-power
reductions in some of Kuwaits buildings. The implementation
of the energy code has saved Kuwait nearly US$10 billion over
the past two decades (Hajiah 2010).
West Asia
387
conditions in the Mediterranean region, the adoption of building

codes becomes a necessity (UN ESCWA 2008).
Building codes that use local materials, green products and
energy-efficient systems for cooling, heating and lighting require
cooperative and well-organized planning by the government,
by financial, educational and legislative institutions, and by
the private sector. It is vital for the government to establish the
necessary reforms and then to make them mandatory for all new
and retrofitted air-conditioned buildings.
Promoting renewable energy resources
Some West Asian countries have adopted policies to promote
the use of solar technologies including solar water heaters,
taking advantage of the areas abundance of natural solar energy.
These policies particularly address the needs of remote and rural
populations with only an unreliable supply of conventional energy
or none at all. This has been done in parallel with the adoption
of performance standards for solar water-heating systems and
awareness campaigns that demonstrate their economic, social
and environmental benefits. Policies include subsidies for water
heaters and tax exemptions for their manufacture; for example,
Syria has made the installation of solar water-heating systems
mandatory for new buildings and an assessment has to be carried
out and submitted with the application for a building license
(Hainoun et al. 2010; Kraidy 2007). In Jordan and the OPT, raw
materials for manufacturing solar water heaters are tax exempt
(PEC 2006; Hrayshat and Al-Soud 2004).
Solar water heaters have multiple benefits. They rely on pollutionfree, inexhaustible and safe energy, and are simple, reliable,
cheap and easy to install. They reduce consumption of fossil fuels
and emissions of greenhouse gases. In summer months, when
the entire region enjoys long sunny periods, solar water heaters
can meet most of the demand for domestic hot water, drastically
reducing consumers energy use.
Solar water heating has become an increasingly common and costeffective way of meeting domestic energy demand. Igor Bystrov
The main challenges to the widespread use of solar waterheating systems include fossil fuel or electrical energy
subsidies, lack of financing schemes and incentive
programmes, low levels of public awareness, limited
distribution and the need for a larger number of qualified
personnel to design, size, install and maintain the systems.
The role of government is indispensible in developing the
market through establishing energy standards and labelling
programmes, regulatory instruments to mandate installation in
Table 14.1 Energy savings and peak-power reductions in Kuwait

Building
Year of implementation
Energy saving (%)
Peak-power reduction (%)
Kuwait Port Authority
1996
30
20
KISR main building
2000
21
20
MEW and MPW buildings
2004
20
38
Public Authority for Civil Identification
2004
12
Al-Fanar shopping mall
2004
15
Smart Operation Strategies in eight government

buildings
2007
40
Building Avenues Mall (Phase 1)
2009
12
2.4
Note: KISR Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research; MEW Ministry of Electricity and Water; MPW Ministry of Public Works.
Source: Hajiah 2010
388
Sunrise in Bethlehem, which enjoys the extended periods of high solar intensity characteristic of the region. Pavel Skopets
new residential and commercial buildings, innovative financing

schemes, and other economic incentives. In addition, testing,
certification and accreditation schemes should be introduced
Box 14.8 Solar water heaters in Jordan and the

Occupied Palestinian Territories
With economic growth and an increasing population, energy
consumption in Jordan is expected to increase by 50 per
cent over the next 20 years. Indeed, the primary energy
demand of 7.5 million tonnes of oil-equivalent in 2008
is expected to double by 2020. In the OPT, around 96 per
cent of the energy requirement is currently met by imports,
accounting for up to 19.6 per cent of GDP (Shahin 2010).
Around 38 per cent of its energy use is domestic.
The serious scarcity of fossil fuel resources leaves the OPT
relying totally on imports, which reached about US$374
million in 2009 (Shahin 2010). The cost of electricity
typically represents 10 per cent of household incomes,
exceeding levels in neighbouring countries (Abu Hamed et
al. 2012; Abualkhair 2007).
With Jordan and OPT, like the rest of the region, enjoying
long periods of high solar intensity, solar water heating is an
effective solution to meeting residential energy demands. By
enhancing solar water heating, Jordan aims to increase its
share of energy from renewable sources to about 7 per cent
in 2015 and 10 per cent in 2020, equivalent to 200600
megawatts of solar energy (Shahin 2010).
to make sure that the quality of the systems is acceptable and

meets consumer expectations.
With the same climate as Jordan and OPT (Box 14.8), Lebanon
has the potential to promote a range of solar energy applications
(Ghaddar et al. 2006; Al-Mohamad 2001), and has recently
initiated a programme for installation of solar water heaters,
providing zero-interest loans to consumers (Houri 2006). Syria
has plans for further promotion of solar water heating and GCC
countries are currently developing their own plans.
Strengthening the legislative and institutional framework is
indispensable in the diffusion of green energy technologies
including solar water heaters. To overcome the barrier of high
up-front costs, governments can provide financial incentives,
as in Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, and/or make concessional
funding available to consumers. In addition, marketing
campaigns that educate the public about the economic and
environmental benefits of renewable energy are vital (Ghaddar
et al. 2006; Houri 2006; Kablan 2004). All these need to be
complemented by building local capacity through training and
education programmes.
Diversifying energy supply options
Emerging technologies are expected to accelerate diversification
of energy supply options for the region, which has a proven
abundance of renewable energy resources, especially solar
and wind. Oil-importing countries such as Jordan and Lebanon
have already adopted polices to diversify their fuel mix by using
renewable energy technologies. The same policies are at the
early stages of development in the oil-rich countries of the GCC.
As indicated in Table 14.2, many countries of the region have
already announced national renewable energy targets.
West Asia
389
Table 14.2 Renewable energy targets for selected

countries
Jordan
Wind: 6001 000 megawatts; solar

photovoltaics: 300600 megawatts;
waste-to-energy: 2050 megawatts
Kuwait
Renewable capacity: 5% by 2020
United Arab Emirates

(Abu Dhabi)
Electricity generating capacity: 7%

by 2020
Lebanon
Occupied Palestinian
Territories

Source: Ruble and Nader 2011
The benefits of a diversified energy supply include its

contribution to meeting the energy needs of people and
stimulating economic growth, which is of particular interest in
hydrocarbon-scarce economies. Indigenous renewable energy
enables oil-importing countries to secure their supply, avoid
the volatility of the global oil market, reduce dependence
on imports, and minimize burdens on the state budget. In
addition, diversification of sources might encourage West Asian
countries to share complementary energy supplies. The region is
highly reliant on fossil fuels and has one of the highest carbon
footprints in the world (Reiche 2010). Switching to sustainable
sources of energy would help improve both environmental
quality and public health while reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and conserving non-renewable fossil fuel resources
for future generations. Promoting renewable energy technologies
would, additionally, improve energy access, particularly in

remote and rural areas.
A number of barriers often put renewable energy solutions at
an economic, regulatory or institutional disadvantage, and the
situation in West Asia is no exception. These barriers include
a lack of or weak legal and institutional frameworks; slow and
incomplete market-liberalization processes; poor capacity for
managing and disseminating information about the opportunities
provided by renewable energy technologies; low levels of
consumer awareness leading to low demand; lack of national
standards, testing and certification schemes; weak capacity in
local assembly and manufacturing, distribution, installation and
maintenance; and a lack of proper financing schemes together
with heavily subsidized prices for oil and gas. To overcome such
barriers, different countries have developed a range of policy
packages, appropriate to their national circumstances, that
combine both regulatory and market-based instruments.
Diversification of the energy supply has high potential for
replication in the region. Several countries have already started
to develop national energy strategies that include this policy and
the rest are planning to do the same.
Governments have a central role to play in setting and developing
national energy strategies and master plans. Public-private
partnerships are vital for achieving renewable energy objectives,
as private-sector investment is often necessary to overcome
shortages of the capital needed for expanding energy systems.
Governments need to develop an enabling environment
conducive to private-sector participation. Reforming the energy
sector, allowing independent power producers to enter the
market, and formulating regulatory mechanisms to secure fair
market competition would be major steps to achieving this.
Oceans and seas
West Asian countries lie within three different major areas:

the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine
Environment (ROPME) area, the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and
the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. All countries have coastal areas,
with the Sultanate of Oman, Saudi Arabia and Yemen having the
largest, while Iraq and Kuwait have the smallest (UNEP 2010).
Scientists say that a species of coral in the Red Sea could stop growing
by 2070 if current warming trends continue. Claes Torstensson
390
The different coastal and marine environments of West Asia

are facing common threats due to pressures resulting from
national development plans, including the urbanization of
coastal zones, tourism, land use and reclamation (Figure 14.4),
maritime and oil traffic, rapid industrialization and overfishing
(Sheppard et al. 2010). In addition, due to specific socioeconomic conditions, the impacts on the marine and coastal
environment are more severe in some areas than others. Among
the issues are the depletion of living resources, coastal zone
degradation and marine pollution, while challenges include
integrated coastal zone management, management of marine
protected areas and gaps in information and knowledge. Since
the main centres of economic activity and population are on the
coast in the majority of West Asian countries, sea level rise and
related impacts of coastal inundation and increased salinity

of aquifers and soil are a real risk. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and
the United Arab Emirates are the countries most vulnerable to
sea level rise (AFED 2009). Significant warming of seawater
due to the outflow of warm water from desalination plants may
cause coral mortality, loss of biodiversity, depletion of fisheries,
invasion of alien species and other environmental stresses.
Given the rapid rates of change and the extent of pressure on
the coastal environment, measures of biodiversity are not a
clear indication of the background resilience of the system
or the overall integrity of ecosystem function (Sheppard et al.
2010; Price 2002).
Indicators to measure the progress of the selected policies
include:
marine and coastal biodiversity indices;
level of compliance with national legislation related to
fisheries;
trends in landings of marine biological stocks;
funds allocated to research and assessment of marine
biodiversity; and
levels of compliance with measures to protect the coastal
and marine environment.
The recommended policies can be grouped into four clusters:
integrated and ecosystem-based marine planning and
management;
enhancing protection of coastal and marine ecosystems;
controlling and combating marine pollution; and
fisheries management.
From within these clusters, three policies were selected that
have a history of implementation in most West Asian countries,
that show some degree of success in ensuring the sustainable
development of the coastal and marine environment, and that
can be replicated and transferred. The three selected policies are:
integrated coastal zone management;
the establishment of marine protected areas; and
fish stock enhancement.
Integrated coastal zone management is a process of
achieving sustainable development goals and objectives in
coastal areas within the constraints of physical, social and
economic conditions as well as within those of legal, financial
and administrative systems and institutions, providing
a cooperatively developed framework for the long-term
conservation and management of coastal and marine resources
(PAP-RAC 2011). One of its fundamental requirements is a strong
set of policies for the management of the coastal environment
and its resources, backed by appropriate legislation or a similar
legal base. Many West Asian countries have developed strong
policies and the legal base also exists in Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen (Tortell 2004). However,
there appear to be some difficulties in moving on to the next
step, which is implementation. Among the different policies
and policy tools that form the framework of integrated coastal
Kuwaits heavily populated low-lying coast is particularly vulnerable to

potential sea level rise. ystein Lund Andersen
zone management are an integrated coastal planning process

backed by a planning/management authority, or its equivalent,
and a coastal planning/management office; a coastal zone
monitoring programme; an environmental impact assessment;
and implementation of the Global Programme of Action for the
Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities
at a regional level.
It is important to mention that an integrated approach is
essential if national and regional, rather than simply sectoral,
objectives and targets are to be achieved. Integration is
required between central and local governments; various
sectors in government, administration and the community;
and governments, civil society and private sectors. In addition,
countries sharing the same water body need to adopt regional
approaches for policy implementation.
Through the rational planning of activities, integrated coastal
zone management facilitates the sustainable development of
coastal areas by ensuring that the environment and landscapes
are taken into account in harmony with economic, social and
cultural development. benefits include the preservation of
coastal zones for current and future generations; ensuring the
sustainable use of natural resources, particularly with regard
to water; ensuring the preservation of the integrity of coastal
ecosystems, landscapes and geomorphology; and preventing
and/or reducing the effects of natural hazards and in particular of
climate change.
West Asia
391
The integrated approach improves coherence between public

and private initiatives, and between all decisions made by public
authorities at the national and regional levels that affect the use
of the coastal zone. Related institutional strengthening can also
help communities adapt to the impact of climate change. The
region has recently witnessed a new trend in the integration of
ecotourism policy in the framework of integrated coastal zone
management in Jordan, with a project developed in 2010 by the
Regional Organization for the Conservation of the Environment
of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden (PERSGA) and the Aqaba
Special Economic Zone Authority, focusing on the enhancement
of ecotourism based on coral reefs and other coastal habitats
in the Gulf of Aqaba. Such a policy can enhance efforts to
protect the coastal and marine environment.
Before an effective integrated resource management system
can be established, some barriers need to be faced. The most
salient of these can be overcome by the establishment of
an appropriate management system and the development
of environmentally sound policies for, amongst others, land
reclamation, urbanization and fisheries. Many West Asian
countries have significant reclamation activities with adverse
impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems and their services.
These activities sometimes aim to improve land availability,
as in Bahrain (Figure 14.4), or to provide vast recreational
opportunities. An effective integrated management policy that
improves public awareness and enforces existing laws related
Figure 14.4 Reclaimed land in Bahrain, 19632008

Additional land area, km2
25
Size of Bahrain, 2008

89%
Addition since 1963

11%
20
15
1963
1977
1977
1982
1982
1989
Note: Land reclamation periods vary.
392
Programmes for the integrated management of coastal zones

can be replicated either under different sectoral programmes
or within the framework of an ecosystem approach, or under a
management authority or its equivalent, which would necessitate
coastal planning offices. Many regional and international
organizations are involved in the transfer of know-how and
knowledge between different countries (Box 14.9).
Integrated management of the coastal and marine environment
cannot occur under the current arrangements of many West
Asian countries, where responsibilities and activities are
divided between a number of ministers and organizations.
Enabling factors include preparing integrated marine and coastal
development plans that incorporate the principles of multiple
uses and an ecosystem approach, establishing institutional
arrangements for marine and coastal planning, enforcing the
outcomes of environmental impact assessments, and building
capacity for a better understanding of the marine environment.
Box 14.9 Coastal and Area Management Programme

(CAMP) in Lebanon
The CAMP-Lebanon project, part of the Mediterranean Action
Plan (MAP), was implemented within UNEPs Coastal Area
Management Programme. It aims to improve sustainable
coastal management and integrates environmental concerns
into development plans (Mehdi 2004). CAMP-Lebanon
addresses the conservation of natural coastal resources in
the area between Damour and Naqoura, an 8-km-wide strip
of land, by applying concepts of sustainable development
as well as methods for integrated coastal and marine
management alongside economic and social development.
The project area was defined at two levels:
the national coastal area to the south of Beirut; and
the three municipalities of Damour, Sarafand and
Naqoura as the operational area.
Thematic activity on integrated coastal area management was
split into several components:
land-use management;
cultural heritage and sustainable development;
the status of environment, agriculture and fishery;
the socio-economic situation;
a legal framework; and
a national strategy.
10
to the use and protection of natural resources can help to

overcome these limitations.
1989
1997
1997
2004
2004
2006
2006
2008
Source: Zainal 2009
The most important elements of CAMP-Lebanon have been

developed and articulated in the national strategy for
integrated coastal area management and the project has
developed a crucial legal tool, the proposed law on integrated
coastal area management.
Establishment of marine protected areas

Marine biodiversity in the region faces extensive threats including
the unprecedented pace of recent construction along and off
the coastline. Together with destructive and wasteful fishing,
these developments seriously threaten coastal habitats in
most West Asian countries (UNEP 2010). Introducing financial
incentives through integrating the economic benefits of ecosystem
services into development costs is one way to overcome marine
biodiversity loss. Marine protected areas are another effective
tool for biodiversity conservation, habitat protection and fisheries
management, acknowledged at national, regional and international
levels. Since 2009, most West Asian countries have had biodiversity
strategies in place supported by UNEPs implementation
programme and projects funded by the Global Environment
Facility (GEF), especially in Lebanon, Iraq, OPT, Syria and Yemen.
Three policy options have been adopted at the national level to
speed up the process of reaching agreed goals:
rehabilitating degraded habitats and conserving biodiversity;
documenting marine life and biodiversity; and
establishing multi-purpose protected areas in various marine
and coastal ecosystems.
Marine protected areas require a well-defined conservation
plan backed by legislation, a monitoring programme to ensure
sustainability, and effective partnership between different
stakeholders, supported by research into best management
practice by such regional marine and coastal programmes as the
Regional Organization for Protection of the Marine Environment
(ROPME) and the Regional Organization for the Conservation
of the Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden (PERSGA).
The benefits of establishing marine protected areas are the
conservation and improvement of biological diversity; the
maintenance of essential ecological process within the natural
system; the sustainable management of marine renewable
resources including fisheries; and the protection and restoration
of degraded habitats while facilitating the implementation of an
ecosystem approach (Box 14.10).
A researcher documents information during a coral reef resilience

survey. J Tamelander/IUCN
Fish stock enhancement

Another policy cluster addresses biodiversity conservation
through integrated fisheries management, an initiative aimed
at tackling the issue of how fish resources can best be shared
between competing users within the broad context of ecologically
sustainable development (Shing 2001). There are several marine
fisheries management policies within the cluster, currently
practised to overcome management obstacles and problems
facing the fishery sector.
Data clearly show very substantial declines in commercial fish
over the past 1020 years (Sheppard et al. 2010), while Bishop
(2002) and Sheppard et al. (2010) have demonstrated a link
between the permanent loss of inter-tidal and shallow subtidal nursery grounds with declining fish and shellfish catches.
Marine stock enhancement, an approach that addresses these
Box 14.10 Marawah Biosphere Reserve, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
The Marawah Marine Protected Area, the largest in the region
with a total area of 4255 km, became the first UNESCO
Marine Biosphere Reserve in the region in 2007. Marawah
itself, just one of 20 islands that make up the protected area,
is flanked by Jarnain Island to the north, Abu Al Abyad Island
to the east, the mainland to the south and Sir Baniyas to the
west. The protected area is a representative example of the
Gulf region, containing coastal areas, salt flats (sabkhas),
shallow waters and shallow islands as well as seagrass
habitats. The island hosts a significant population of dugongs,
four species of marine turtle, 70 species of fish, and coral
reefs and expanses of mangrove (Avicennia marina) that are
important habitats for many terrestrial and marine species.
Resident and migratory bird species such as ospreys, sooty

falcons and several tern species, are part of the ecosystem,
with bottlenose and humpback dolphins also found in
the surrounding waters, making the area important for its
biodiversity. Preserving the natural diversity and quality of the
coastal and marine environment is what the reserve aims to
achieve. It has established a 12-member marine ranger force
to carry out surveillance and control programmes, essential
infrastructure has been procured and maintained, and the
rehabilitation of a mangrove site on Marawah Island has
begun. The island is also of great cultural and archaeological
significance, with more than 20 sites dating back 7000 years
to the Stone Age (SCENR et al. 2008).
West Asia
393
issues, involves a set of management measures for releasing

farmed organisms to enhance or restore fisheries. Engineered
artificial reefs, which help to restore lost or degraded marine and
coastal environments, can also enhance re-stocking of depleted
commercial fish and shellfish.
Such practices, including sea ranching, stock enhancement
and restocking, are widespread, often controversial, and
have varying levels of success (Lorenzen et al. 2010). Fish
stock enhancement, one of the successful policies, involves
the annual release of tens of thousands of fish fingerlings in
different parts of the territorial waters.
The benefits of this policy are mostly in rehabilitating depleted
fisheries, and also include the potential to reduce the time
needed to rebuild some severely overexploited ones or improve
the productivity of other, healthy fisheries. Only if large-scale fish
releases are completed and the effects on the fisheries measured
and documented will it be possible to quantify and value the
economic benefits of the programme.
Stock enhancement, which can be very costly and absorb major
resources, is not a substitute for fisheries management (AFED
2009). Understanding both the biology and the culture technology
of a species is critical to the success of stock enhancement
programmes, the impacts of which may be insignificant and
can be extremely difficult to assess. If not carefully managed,
stock enhancement programmes can affect the gene pool of wild
stocks and there can be complications when exotic species are
introduced as part of the enhancement programme.
The potential for restocking and stock enhancement stems
mainly, but not entirely, from the development of technology to
produce juveniles of a wide variety of coastal fish and shellfish in
hatcheries (Bell et al. 2006). Restocking and stock enhancement
A school of striped mackerel feeding in the Red Sea. Dirk-Jan Mattaar
programmes, in which West Asian countries have developed

considerable expertise, are applied in intricate humanenvironment systems involving dynamic interactions between the
resource, the technical intervention and the people who use it,
making replication complex (Box 14.11).
Stock enhancement programmes should be considered within
the broader issue of fisheries management (Shams and Uwate
Box 14.11 Fish stock enhancement in Bahrain

Bahrain is an island state and its people have a strong affinity
with the sea. Landings of some preferred fish such as grouper
have declined dramatically in the last 1020 years. One
successful management policy that is being followed on an
annual basis is the enhancement of fish stocks, which have
suffered over the years as too many fishers catch too many fish.
In 1994, tens of thousands of orange spotted groupers were
successfully released; in 1996 and 1997 stock enhancement
activity focused on the release of yellow-finned black sea
bream and sobaity sea bream.
Several fish species such as white-blotched grouper and
striped grouper, parrotfish and sobaity sea bream were
rarely seen in fish markets before the start of the release
programme in 1994, but the annual release of different species
has enabled the refinement of the technology and reduced
394
mortality and costs. The General Directorate of Fisheries, for

example, has recently made arrangements with Durat AlBahrain, in the southwest of the Kingdom, to deploy different
types of artificial reefs to be used for the release of sobaity sea
bream and grouper fingerlings.
However, as a result of insufficient funding for the fish
release programme, modern fish tagging technology could
not be applied to assess its success. Some people, however,
have reported large quantities of small groupers and sobaity
and shaem sea bream in the market just after fish release.
Additionally, in the post-release period, actual grouper
landings were high. This suggests that the releases have
had a positive impact on the fishery, especially on
landings (Zainal and Abdulqader 2009; Shams and
Uwate 1996).
1996). Enhancements affect complex fisheries systems and, to be

successful, must contribute to a broad set of biological, economic,
social and institutional management objectives (Lorenzen 2008),
so it is important to compare the costs of the programmes with
the benefits. Finally, public cooperation is very helpful.
CONCLUSIONS
Environmental policies in West Asian countries have been

developed over the past two decades and continue to progress;
however, they need to become proactive rather than reactive.
Additionally, environmental governance, rather than merely
focusing on environmental policies, needs to take account of
societies common goals and engage with various stakeholders in
the design and execution of policies. The integration of sectoral
policies is also important. Regional environmental governance is
crucial for the West Asia region as the countries share common
environmental conditions. There is also a need for clear, integrated
policies, not just targets, aimed at shifting the region from current
long-established economic systems towards a green economy.
Failure to introduce sectoral policy integration, policy mixes
and regional integration will intensify currently unsustainable
consumption and production patterns, especially for energy,
water, food security and marine resources, with the potentially
grave consequences of natural resource depletion and increased
pollution, which in turn impact human health and well-being.
The regions marginal biophysical characteristics, population
growth, urbanization and socio-economic policies, coupled with
high rates of natural resource consumption, are the main drivers
of environmental problems. Insecurity and conflicts are also
among the regional drivers of environmental degradation. These
are further exacerbated by frequent droughts and climate change.
There is a general lack of coherent environmental data and
information tools in the West Asia region. The systematic
collection, processing, analysis, production, dissemination
and exchange of environmental information would lead to more
robust decision making and proper policy formulation and
implementation. Trends show the need to make use of additional
measures to improve enforcement and compliance processes.
Moreover, there is a significant need for regular environmental
reporting in all West Asian countries as well as greater public and
private participation (UNEP 2010).
The involvement of the public in the environmental regulatory
systems remains low because people are neither well informed
nor encouraged to participate. Although access to general
environmental information has recently improved, much effort is
still required to achieve real public participation in environmental
management.
Several countries in West Asia undertake enabling initiatives to
facilitate the implementation of green technologies to reduce
pollution and waste, to conserve energy and to rationalize
water use. Most of the countries have developed policies to
integrate cleaner production concepts in the industrial sector
and established centres to help build capacity. However, the

effectiveness of policy implementation is unsatisfactory.
Proper allocation of authority within environmental governance
needs to be enhanced and environmental institutions
empowered. Strengthening the role of various stakeholders,
including non-governmental organizations, the private sector
and local communities, would improve execution, monitoring,
reporting and achieving the collective goals as well as increasing
cooperation at national and regional levels, and would lead to
better implementation of environmental policies.
Many policy options could be seen as inducing the necessary
structural changes to achieve better environmental governance in
the region. Such options include the integration of environmental
impact assessment in decision-making processes and
development plans, the decentralization and development of
institutions, and improving access to environmental information
to improve public engagement.
The challenge for the water sector lies in achieving sustainable
water development through balancing supply and demand,
with priority given to meeting the MDG 7c targets. Water
resources policy should be coordinated with agriculture,
environment, housing, and social and economic policies to
achieve internationally agreed goals. The updating of water
legislation and strengthening of intra-institutional coordination
mechanisms, the free dissemination of information and the
enhancement of stakeholder participation are necessary to the
comprehensive and integrated management of the water sector.
Essential management measures include greater efficiencies in
water use, especially in the irrigation sector; protecting water
sources from pollution and depletion; and deploying adequate
financial and qualified human resources. The integrated water
resources management approach provides an innovative
planning tool to overcome existing obstacles and address future
Box 14.12 The Council of Arab Ministers Responsible

for the Environment (CAMRE)
Within the framework of the League of Arab States (LAS),
CAMRE was established as a high-level institution to
ensure the proper coordination of environmental policies
in the Arab region, which includes all the countries of
the West Asia region. CAMRE aims to identify major
environmental problems, set priorities and address issues
related to a sustainable environment. CAMRE has played,
and continues to play, a major role in the coordination of
environmental policies of the Arab countries at regional
and global levels and has ensured a certain level of
replication of environmental policies among West Asian
countries. In addition, CAMRE ensures that all LAS
institutions are addressing environmental issues in a
comprehensive and harmonized manner.
West Asia
395
water sector challenges. Successful national formulation and

application of an integrated management approach can be
replicated across the region given the homogeneity of its natural,
physical, social, economic and cultural settings.
Screening and analysis of policies implemented to prevent
and mitigate land degradation in West Asia show that the
region is in line with the main goal of the Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation, Paragraph 40 (WSSD 2002). However, the
main challenges are the formulation and implementation of
bottom-up policy to encourage community participation, and
the enhancement of regional cooperation through projects to

conserve natural resources, increase land productivity, and
prevent and mitigate soil erosion and dust storms. Integrated
land, agriculture and water policies include modern agricultural
techniques, sustainable agricultural production systems and
afforestation to achieve relative food and water security.
Policies focused on the energy efficiency of buildings have
been successful in the development of green building codes
and expanding the market for innovative green services and
efficiency-oriented companies, which attract professional
participation to improve practices. The public at large
understands the policy concepts and has the awareness to
implement efficient practices as long as the building fabric
options and systems are economically justifiable and mandated
by governments. Replication of building and systems energy
policies has a high success rate due to the similarity of climates
and needs, and the high level of motivation for increased
development, innovation, and investment for the greening of the
building sector by professional, private and government entities.
Energy policies related to power generation have a more topdown approach that relies on country goals to increase the
share of energy production from clean sources. Decision-making
tools to decide on the energy generation mix have to include
environmental impact assessments. West Asian countries
are looking at various options including nuclear energy, as
renewable energy generation is still not seen as cost-effective
compared with the conventional resources that are abundant
in GCC. Energy policies cannot be developed independently of
freshwater policies. The challenge lies in how to optimize the
development of policies that address the demand of both energy
and water at minimal cost to the environment. Cooperation
between Arab countries to complement each others energy
needs would have more success where alternative sources of
energy generation are used.
Policies for oceans and seas are clustered around the
integration of management tools in order to achieve sustainable
development of the coastal and marine areas. West Asian
countries should confirm their commitment to an ecosystem
approach through continued support for the integrated
management of the coastal and marine environment. To this
end, policy implementation tools such as strategic social and
environmental impact assessments should be considered during
project planning.
Featuring three integrated wind turbines, the Bahrain World Trade

Center boasts the worlds most sophisticated skyscraper energy
recovery system. Klaas Lingbeek- van Kranen
396
The development and improvement of management systems

for marine protected areas and regional networks are important
for conservation of the regions biodiversity. Global climate
change will exert additional impacts on the coastal and marine
environment, and regional adaptation strategies should take
into consideration the environmental, social and economic
differences between countries. The region has a very high
potential for the transfer of several policies to ensure the
sustainable development of the coastal and marine environment
of the West Asia region.
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C H A P T E R
Policy Options: Regional Summary
15
Coordinating lead authors: Asha Singh and Renat Perelet

Contributing authors: Jane Barr, Ludgarde Coppens, Nicolai Dronin, Jose Etcheverry,
Amir El-Sammak, Lailai Li, Clever Mafuta, Catherine P. McMullen,
Flavia Rovia (GEO Fellow) and Joanna Kamiche Zegarra
Principal scientific reviewer: Ada Ignaciuk
Chapter coordinators: Matthew Billot and Ludgarde Coppens
West Asia
399
Main Messages
The selection of freshwater, climate change and
environmental governance as priorities by all
regions suggests a recognition that these issues
have reached a point of global importance requiring
responses that could have relevance worldwide.
Climate change exerts extreme pressure on ecological
systems, including on freshwater by exacerbating
problems of water supply and demand. Two regions
considered climate change to be cross-cutting, and
assessed how policies in each theme help to attain
international goals related to climate change.
While many of these policies are long-standing

management concepts, their application can be
innovative if certain principles are adhered to. This
includes policies that are mutually reinforcing with
positive impacts in more than one thematic domain,
and policies that address drivers as defined in
Chapter 1. Concentrating on these deeper, underlying
causes of environmental degradation will allow the
goals and targets set out in international, regional
and national agreements to be met in a more
effective way.
There are common elements in successful policies

across the regions. Tools such as integrated water
resources and coastal zone management; the removal
of environmentally harmful subsidies, especially
on fossil fuels and/or carbon taxes; renewable
energy, marine protected areas, and cross-boundary
biodiversity conservation, are all examples of policies
used in more than one region, but customized to
each context. Formal, robust, and well-established
governance mechanisms and structures at all
governance levels are a necessary foundation for
successful implementation of environmental policies.
Transboundary cooperation is important when

natural areas are shared. It promotes understanding
and the transfer of knowledge between neighbours,
and leads to a collective response to shared
problems, allowing new opportunities and
ways of overcoming these common problems
to be identified.
The policies selected by the regions are successful

because of some underlying principles. These
include policies that are mutually reinforcing and
have benefits across sectors, address drivers, invest
in monitoring and evaluation to allow revision and
enhance accountability, or involve multi-stakeholder
participation at local, national and regional level.
There is sufficient experience to enable faster
transfer and replication of several of the priority
policies. This, however, would be greatly improved
by the sharing of experiences between donor and
recipient practitioners and stakeholders, learning
the specific skills of how to assess potential policies
for particular needs and how to adapt these to
the selected situation, and establishing capacity
and institutional development to support the
enhancement and propagation of these skills.
400
400

Improved environmental governance is needed if

environmental degradation and the unsustainable
use of natural resources are to be reversed. Critical
components include multi-stakeholder support,
raising public awareness among all stakeholders,
stronger mechanisms for financial sustainability,
enhanced institutional capacity, adequate legal
frameworks and strong compliance mechanisms.
Community leadership demonstrated, for example,
in the formation of water maintenance trust funds
or wetland management schemes provides local
services, helps resolve inter-community conflicts,
demonstrates the value of participation and learning,
and provides income-generating opportunities.
Policies that have proven successful can be analysed
for their ability to leverage societal transformation.
Understanding the potential of these policies,
alone or in combination, could help facilitate
transformative change and enhance the effect
that policy makers have on reaching sustainable
development objectives at local, national, regional
and international levels.
INTRODUCTION
Humans have long been aware of the effects on their local

environment of resource use, waste production and land use,
but only in the last few decades has it been realized how such
activities affect the global environment. In the past, when
there were fewer humans and each used natural resources less
intensively, the capacities of the atmosphere, land and water
could carry the load of human consumption and production. But
a significant proportion of the 7 billion humans alive today are
actively exploiting the planets resources at accelerating rates
and intensities that surpass the carrying capacity of the Earths
systems (Krausmann et al. 2009; Liu et al. 2003; McNeill 2000).
As mentioned in Chapter 1, the scale, spread and rate of change
of global drivers are without precedent.
The concept of planetary boundaries was introduced by
Rockstrm et al. (2009) to identify those key environmental
processes that provide humanity with a safe operating space
for well-being. Scientific analysis established nine planetary
boundaries with approaching thresholds beyond which
humans could not thrive in the Earth System. Of these nine
thresholds, three may already have been passed: climate
change, biodiversity loss, and the removal of nitrogen from the
atmosphere (fixing) for use in fertilizers and weapons (Rockstrm
et al. 2009). The concept of impending thresholds, tipping points
and crossing boundaries are familiar to those who study complex
systems (Limburg et al. 2002). Biologists and marine scientists
term abrupt changes in the species that populate an ecosystem
regime shifts (Kraberg et al. 2011; Rodionov and Overland 2005).
Earth System scientists are currently debating the imminence
of destabilization in various tipping elements affecting global

climate (Lenton et al. 2008). A more in-depth discussion of the
role of planetary boundaries can be found in Chapter 7.
This chapter provides a summary of Chapters 914 and
aims to determine those approaches and policies that show
promise for adoption and adaptation elsewhere. The outcome
of this appraisal is to offer policy options that can help meet
internationally agreed goals efficiently and effectively and also
lead to international, regional and local co-benefits. It is useful
to identify at which level the policies identified as promising are
best suited to apply leverage (Chapter 16).
REGIONAL SUMMARY
The selection of themes
The GEO-5 Introduction describes the process by which each

region selected priority themes and internationally agreed goals,
as well as the policy appraisal methodology by which promising
policies were identified. During the consultations, some regions
decided that certain themes cut across the priority environmental
challenges that were selected for the region.
The selection of priority themes and goals, which was limited to a
maximum of five or six for each region, provides a first indication
of what is considered important (Table 15.1).
Different regions focused on different aspects of the same
theme. For example, while only two regions selected energy as a
priority theme (Table 15.1), three others Asia and the Pacific,
Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean included energy
Table 15.1 Priority themes by region

Africa
Asia and the

Pacific
Europe
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
North America
West Asia
Climate change
Energy
Air pollution
Land
Freshwater
Oceans and seas
Biodiversity
Chemicals and waste
Selected as a cross-cutting theme
Selected as a theme
Regional Summary
401
in their selection of policies that hold promise for meeting the

climate change goal. In Latin America and the Caribbean, policies
on wastewater treatment and coastal zone management are
included in the water theme, while policies on coastal and marine
protected areas are included in the biodiversity theme.
The selection by all regions of freshwater, climate change and
environmental governance as priorities suggests recognition that
these issues have reached a point of global importance requiring
responses that could have relevance worldwide.
Africa
For the first time in 2009, Africas total population exceeded

1 billion, of which 395 million (or almost 40 per cent) lived in
urban areas. Africa should prepare for a total population increase
of about 60 per cent between 2010 and 2050, with the urban
population tripling to 1.23 billion during this period (UN-Habitat
2010). Africas cities are characterized by extremes of prosperous
centres and poor, informal settlements, and many governments
struggle to provide social services including access to water, food
and energy security, and management of environmental risks.
Climate change and other adverse environmental change may
accelerate urbanization (UN-Habitat 2010) and further strain
governments ability to cope (Mohamed-Katerere 2009).
The importance of transboundary natural resource policies
is increasingly recognized in Africa as an essential strategy
to enable integrated environmental management, economic
integration, conflict resolution, and equitable socio-economic
development. The integrated water resources management
of the Senegal River Basin provides a practical example of
transboundary cooperation that strengthens political links
while enhancing agricultural productivity and food security.
This initiative also improves transport, allowing year-round
navigation, and ensures a reliable source of hydroelectricity.
Much of the growth in many of Africas fastest-growing cities is a result

of the expansion of informal settlements, which offer its residents
limited access to basic infrastructure. iStock/Steven Allan
402
The achievement of policy goals in a given sector or region is now

understood to be closely linked to potential improvements and
co-benefits in additional areas (Chapter 9). For example, under the
Sustainable Land Management Programme in Ethiopia, 177 local
watersheds are being protected to enhance land productivity
and rural development, simultaneously strengthening resilience
in downstream communities and countries (TerrAfrica 2009). For
nations faced with limited resources, maximizing policy synergies
helps deliver social, ecological and economic benefits, reduces
trade-offs, and provides multiple paths for addressing common
drivers and pressures.
The establishment of networks of marine protected areas creates
additional benefits and provides more effective management
opportunities than reliance on isolated ones. Regional
cooperation is essential to sustain effective marine protected
area networks. Addressing challenges such as disparities in
governance, institutional structures, wealth distribution, social
capital and the collection of ecological data and strengthening
enabling conditions help to establish networks.
The effective use of tools and mechanisms to track and monitor
environmental performance and change increases the capacity to
respond effectively and efficiently to new challenges, including
risks such as extreme events. For example, East Africas
Intergovernmental Authority on Development established a
Conflict and Early Warning and Response Mechanism that helps
communities plan their pastoral activities and food production
better, building resilience against threats from famine and intercommunity conflicts over grazing and crop production.
Regional cooperation, community-driven strategies and publicprivate partnerships can support learning, improve sustainability
and encourage ecosystem approaches. The recently adopted
Mangrove Charter for West Africa, which is complemented
by country-specific action plans, is an example of regional
cooperation. The relative success of a community-based
mangrove management project in Cameroon demonstrates the
value of participation and learning for successful adaptation
(Ajonina et al. 2009). The restoration of 5 hectares of locally
significant mangroves in Mauritius, financed by a local bank
with technical assistance from government and implemented
by a non-governmental organization and the local community,
illustrates how partnerships between government, the private
sector and civil society can help preserve natural resources
and provide a practical climate change adaptation strategy that
helps local people cope better with extreme events such as
storm surges (ADD 2011, 2009). An island-wide survey has been
undertaken to identify potential areas for replication.
Human rights protection is increasingly recognized as critical in
strengthening human well-being while delivering environmental
benefits. South Africas Free Basic Water Policy, for example,
benefits many impoverished households by guaranteeing access
to 25 litres of water per person per day for domestic use within
200 metres of their homes. This strategy reduces the burden
on women as well as providing health benefits (Mehta 2005).
The policy also strengthens municipal institutions and helps to

reduce surface water pollution from domestic sources by placing
authority at the local level.
The Asia and Pacific region has become a global engine of

economic growth, but with large intra-regional differences.
China is the worlds largest carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, while
most Pacific island nations are among the smallest. Water
endowments range from the highly arid temperate zones and
water-stressed small island states to Himalayan snowfields and
abundant tropics. There is a wide diversity of environmental
governance systems and mechanisms. The regions challenges
include lifting millions of people out of poverty, navigating the
turbulence of globalization, and dealing with some of the most
polluted landscapes on Earth.

As the region is the fastest growing source of greenhouse
gas emissions in the world, decisions to implement policies
supporting carbon neutrality, renewable energy, conservation,
and efficiency are crucial to the success of global efforts to
address climate change. Countries in Asia and the Pacific,
such as China, India and Indonesia, are reducing and
removing fossil fuel subsidies with the objectives of reducing
state budget burdens, preventing the use of public funds to
support the wealthiest and those responsible for the greatest
energy consumption, ensuring fairness for alternative energy
development, and reducing environmental damage and
contributions to climate change (IEA et al. 2010).
Of the ten countries in the world that are most at risk from
climate change impacts, six are in the Asia and Pacific region.
Key areas for action include integrating climate change
adaptation and disaster risk reduction, mainstreaming
adaptation concerns into development policies and plans,
promoting ecosystem-based adaptation, and developing
climate-proofed infrastructure. In the Maldives, policy research
continues on possible relocation sites for populations displaced
by sea level rise. At the same time, policy implementation
increases resilience of individual islands by offering support
with measures for afforestation, improving drainage,
supplementing natural ridges, replenishing beaches, cultivating
mangroves and fostering coral reef health (GEF 2009).
The Asia and Pacific region faces significant water-related
challenges. Integrated water resource management planning,
balancing water supply and demand through coordination
among users, improved water quality management, appropriate
pricing and multi-stakeholder participation, represent essential
strategies to solve water problems in the region. In China, the
Yellow River was cut off from the sea for 226 days in 1997, after
episodic flows with shorter cut-offs in preceding years. In 1998,
China initiated a programme restricting water withdrawals
from the river and assigning quotas to users, with compliance
enforcement measures including fines for exceeding withdrawal
quotas (NDRC 1998). Since 2000, the river has flowed all the
way to the sea.
For the Maldives, adaptation is a multi-dimensional goal that aims

to increase the resilience of its vulnerable island systems against
climate hazards and risks, and to achieve sustainable development.
iStock/Tuomas Kujansuu
The emerging economies of Asia and the Pacific are exerting

immense pressure on natural resources and ecosystem services.
Although progress has been achieved through expanding
protected areas, conserving species, addressing direct
drivers of biodiversity loss, implementing community-based
management and innovative financing, the scale of these efforts
is insufficient to address current biodiversity and habitat losses.
However, some successes can be replicated. In Viet Nam, forest
ecosystem service payment schemes charge tourism operators
and downstream water and power utilities for upstream water
regulation, soil conservation and landscape preservation.
Payments for the protection of 210000 hectares of forest went
to forestry businesses and forestry management boards, as well
as to 9870 households comprising mostly ethnic minorities
(Winrock International 2011).
Many of the policy successes observed in the region are context
specific. Therefore, policy transfer and emulation initiatives require
careful analysis of the underlying political, cultural, economic
and social contexts and their influence on policy implementation
and success. Creating the necessary enabling environment is as
important as selecting the right combination of policies.
Europe
The pan-European region is very diverse, with 37 national

languages spoken in its 50 European countries (Nations Online
2011), a range of socio-economic and political systems, a variety
of physical environments and differing means of environmental
governance. Europes land area of 23 million km2 (GEO Data Portal
2011; FAO 2010) is characterized by a diversity of (agri)cultural
Regional Summary
403
landscapes, urban agglomerations, extensive coastal zones,

forests and undisturbed pristine areas. Of the nearly 833 million
Europeans, about half live in Western Europe, while some 72 per
cent of the entire regions population lives in urban areas (GEO
Data Portal 2011; UNDESA 2010).
This region has formal, robust, and well-established governance
mechanisms and structures to address environmental issues. For
more than four decades, the European Union (EU) has developed
and implemented environmental policies. That process has
evolved from targeted policies and single-issue instruments in
the 1970s and 1980s, through diffuse policy integration and
public awareness in the 1980s and 1990s, to policy coherence
and other systemic approaches since the late 1990s.
At the pan-European scale, the Environment for Europe ministerial
process, initiated in 1991, reflects this process of environmental
governance. Both EU and non-EU European countries are on
schedule to meet their Kyoto targets on cutting greenhouse gas
emissions, and are among the major donors to international efforts
to address climate change worldwide. The EUs Emissions Trading
System (ETS), which covers about 40 per cent of EU emissions,
provides valuable implementation and design lessons for other
regions. For 2009, the EU carbon trading market was estimated
to be worth more than US$118 billion per year, part of a global
carbon-credit market estimated at US$144 billion, with the volume
of emissions covered reaching 6.3 billion tonnes (EC 2009a,
2009b; Ellerman and Buchner 2007).
Two other promising policy options in the European region
concern the development of renewable energy and adaptation
strategies. Feed-in tariffs (FIT) for renewable energy systems
were established in Germany more than 20 years ago and
are being emulated successfully both throughout the EU and
globally (Jnicke 2011). In its adaptation strategies, the EU
is moving away from short-term disaster responses, aiming
for long-term adaptation measures and policies that will be
implemented at national and local levels focusing on land-use
planning, agriculture, water management and biodiversity/nature
conservation, as well as building adaptive capacity and taking
action to increase resilience to climate change.
Although air quality in Europe has improved in recent decades,
there are still some outstanding issues, particularly in relation
to urban air quality, human health, air pollutants and ecosystem
degradation. The efforts of the Convention on Long Range
Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and its pan-European
scientific network have been pivotal in documenting air quality
issues and in building credibility, shaping policies and ultimately
monitoring trends in air quality improvement. Many of these
policies and initiatives have strong replication potential
particularly where rapid industrialization is degrading air quality.
European governmental institutions also play a vital role in
solving freshwater issues, while integrated water resources
management is becoming a key guiding mechanism for decisionmaking. The transboundary nature of most European rivers
404
calls for close cooperation between user countries through the

creation of river basin management plans (UNECE 2011). Also,
information provision and market-based instruments, such as
water metering and incentive-based water pricing, show potential
as policy approaches that can yield 2040 per cent reductions in
household water use.
Waste volumes continue to grow despite strong regulation. In
Eastern Europe, a legacy of industrial wastes from the Soviet era
still poses significant ecological problems (Devyatkin 2009).
Policy focus is evolving to make producers responsible for
waste reduction, reuse, and recycling and by encouraging the
development of new technologies and greater reliance on lifecycle approaches. Legislation has been developed for specific
wastes such as electrical and electronic equipment, various
chemical substances, and toxic and radioactive by-products.
Europe is at the forefront of multi-national conservation efforts.
Through Natura 2000, a coherent network of protected areas,
biodiversity monitoring, and conservation activities has been
established. However, biodiversity loss remains a problem due
to continuing landscape, ecosystem, and habitat degradation.
Nevertheless, initiatives such as Forest Europe are addressing
biodiversity conservation, climate change, and the protection
of freshwater resources and have already contributed to the
increase of the total forest area in European countries (Forest
Europe et al. 2011).
The 33 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean vary

significantly in size and economic development. The region
includes both Brazil, the seventh largest economy in the world
(The Economist 2011) and small island developing states with
open and fragile economies (Rietbergen et al. 2007). Rich in
natural resources, the region is home to approximately 23 per cent
of the worlds forests and 31 per cent of its freshwater resources.
Although these resources are not evenly distributed, the overall
richness and economic importance of the regions ecosystems and
its natural capital are undeniable (UNEP 2010). With 79 per cent
of its population living in towns and cities (UN-Habitat 2010),
the region is one of the most urbanized in the world. It faces
challenges in providing its burgeoning towns and cities with safe
water and sanitation, and in addressing air pollution and the
contamination of its freshwater, oceans and seas.
The performance of the regions environmental institutions is
currently constrained not by the absence of laws but by a paucity
of political will, limited procedural continuity and inadequate
enforcement instruments. The region also requires greater
financial resources to facilitate sustainable management efforts
and to ensure conservation of biological resources.
Achieving a more sustainable model of development requires
improved national and regional strategies to facilitate
cross-sectoral policies, at relevant scales, that can address
environmental and economic issues simultaneously. To improve
governance, active community participation and a high level of
inter-institutional cooperation are also needed. The combination

of these approaches can help improve environmental problems
while enhancing human well-being. These types of initiatives are
also crucial to address the most serious challenges faced in the
region: poverty and inequality.
Careful analysis and evaluation of social needs, at local
and regional levels, facilitates the implementation of more
effective environmental initiatives that can also address social
development. For example, the innovative transport initiatives
implemented first in Curitiba, Brazil, and subsequently in Bogot,
Colombia, illustrate that well-designed projects can yield multiple
environmental and social benefits, such as climate mitigation
and improved mobility options (WRI 2010).
Integrated water resources management promotes the coordinated
development and management of water, land and related
resources. If carefully designed and implemented, it can also
maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner
without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems.
Green financing options and mechanisms to ensure better
inclusion of key stakeholders are also recognized as important
approaches to help reduce environmental degradation and
threats to the regions biodiversity. For example, the Fund for
the Protection of Water (FONAG), a trust fund to which water
users contribute, is used to co-finance the rehabilitation and
conservation of 65 000 hectares of watersheds that supply water
in Quito, Ecuador, and surrounding areas. Similar funds have been
developed in Colombia and Peru (Cisneros and Lloret 2008).
Since the 1960s, arable land has increased by 83 per cent in
South America, 46 per cent in Africa and 36 per cent in Asia,
coinciding with significant deforestation in all three regions
(IPSRM 2010). In 2009, more than 280 000 Latin American
and Caribbean producers managed 23 per cent of the worlds
organically farmed land, with the highest regional shares in
Dominican Republic and Uruguay (Willer and Kilcher 2011).
The overall area of land used for agriculture in South America
increased by 20 per cent between 1970 and 2008, while
livestock production grew by 37 per cent (FAO 2010).
Based on a review of Latin America and the Caribbeans current
and past experiences, the three land management policies
considered the most favourable to attain the goals set out
in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (WSSD 2002)
include multi-scale land-use planning, sustainable agriculture
and livestock production, and the recovery of degraded lands.
Payment for ecosystem services, sustainable forest management,
and policies related to integrated land management and wateruse plans address multiple themes including climate change,
biodiversity and water goals.
Efforts to strengthen technology networks and knowledge flows
are needed to improve the management of natural capital and
the use of land-based and coastal and marine resources. Such
capacity-building efforts are also important to help improve
policies that promote the conservation of biodiversity and water,

and climate change mitigation and adaptation, while helping to
yield more effective development results (CCCCC 2011).
North America
North America is considered a global economic leader, although

changes in regional demographics, rapidly emerging global
economies and resource constraints all challenge the countrys
provision of public goods and services. At the same time,
fragmented governance, policy instability, lack of clear targets
and science policy, and the dilemma of whether to address
global issues rather than seeking local solutions, hamper the
achievement of environmental goals (Chapter 1).
In North America, there has been a recenttrend emphasizing the
success of market-based instruments over the use of regulations
and standards in environmental management. However, there is
a need for additionalempirical data to show the actual impacts
of these market-based instruments. Such policy options are
best approached in a complementary manner, as market-based
instruments need a clear and strong regulatory framework to work
well. Furthermore, accountability and transparency can increase
their environmental effectiveness while helping to ensure fair and
equitable social outcomes.
Integrated water resources management in combination with
technological instruments and economic incentives has proved
effective in addressing complex water resource challenges.
Integrated strategies have great potential for replication,
provided that effective coordination and implementation
mechanisms accompany them. They require a coordinated effort
between stakeholders at multiple geographic and political
scales, as well as adequate scientific evidence and monitoring
to ensure that appropriate action is taken in response to altered
water regimes resulting from climate change and increasing
demand. The adoption of policies for maintaining the availability,
sustainable use and fair allocation of freshwater to meet the
needs of both humans and nature must be embedded into an
holistic approach at the scale of a hydrological basin.
The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Sustainable Water
Resources Agreement of 2005, involving eight US states and two
Canadian provinces, provides a framework for each state and
province to manage and protect the basin as a whole. The Great
Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative includes the objective
that by 2015, all participating cities of the basin reduce water
use by 15 per cent below 2000 levels. By 2010, almost half of
the 33 participating cities had collectively achieved a 13 per cent
reduction conserving a total of 330 million m3 of water.
The pricing of externalities and integrated land management
show potential to increase the sustainability of land-use
practices in North America. Jurisdictions throughout the region
have adopted many of these policy instruments to different
degrees. For example, in British Columbia, Canada, resource
companies, environmental groups and coastal First Nations
have successfully carried out an ecosystem-based integrated
Regional Summary
405
land-use planning exercise, the 2006 Great Bear Forest

Agreements, through a collaborative process (McGee et al. 2010).
Taxes and other incentives in the United States have increased
the total area conserved by local, state and national land trusts
to around 15 million hectares. Programmes on payment for
ecosystem services have permanently preserved another 92
million hectares in the United States.
At the state or provincial level, North Americas growth of
renewable energy technologies and the associated rise in the
proportion of renewable energy in the regions energy mix can
be traced to policy goals supported by market mechanisms such
as feed-in tariffs. Greatly increasing the use of renewable energy
in North America is technically feasible and can provide multiple
benefits including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, lower
energy prices and decreased market volatility, while creating new
employment and economic opportunities.
Carbon taxes can also contribute to energy efficiencies. The
Canadian provinces of Quebec and British Columbia imposed
carbon taxes in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Quebecs tax is
very low but British Columbias revenue-neutral scheme is more
ambitious, starting at US$10 per tonne emitted in 2008 and
increasing to US$30 per tonne in 2012. Addressing drawbacks
typically associated with carbon taxes such as comprehensive
coverage combined with targeted tax reductions, and reducing
potentially large adaptation costs for carbon-intensive industries,
appears to have helped it gain citizen acceptance.
West Asia
The predominantly arid and semi-arid region of West Asia

covers about 4 million km2. Rainfall is scant but with significant
spatial and temporal variability. Water scarcity and frequent and
persistent droughts are common, making water the regions most
precious resource. The region also faces major environmental
challenges in the need to address land degradation and
desertification; increasing fossil-fuel-based energy production
and use with high inefficiencies in generation, distribution and
end use; and the conservation and sustainable use of marine
and coastal resources. Climate change is becoming one of the
regions main problems, with potentially adverse impacts on the
economy and human well-being.
West Asia has made considerable progress in environmental
governance. For instance, the League of Arab States established
the Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment
(CAMRE) as a high-level institution to ensure proper coordination
of environmental policies across the region. CAMRE aims to
identify major environmental problems, set priorities and
address issues related to sustainable environment. However,
deteriorating environmental trends indicate a need for using
additional policy instruments such as incentives, monitoring
mechanisms, economic and environmental assessment tools,
environmental education, and public awareness strategies.
Countries in West Asia rely heavily on regulatory strategies
rather than market-based instruments. Although new initiatives
406
to introduce policy mixes aimed at achieving higher levels of

integration between different sectors do exist, they remain
modest. As an illustration, for the last four decades water policies
have mostly focused on supply strategies aimed at overcoming
shortages through technical solutions including desalination.
This supply-focused approach, enabled by the availability of
strong financial resources within key countries, specifically the
Gulf Cooperation Council States, has resulted in good progress in
meeting the Millennium Development Goal on water supply and
sanitation, particularly in urban areas (UNDESA 2011).
The ongoing prevalence of unsustainable patterns of demand
and consumption is nevertheless resulting in depletion of water
resources and widespread deterioration in water quality, a
situation that also increases regional tension over shared sources.
Integrated water resource management represents a promising
approach to achieve resource sustainability (CEDARE and AWC
2004). In addition, fair pricing of water services is becoming
widely understood as crucial for achieving better demand
management. In Saudi Arabia, the government has launched a
number of measures to reduce consumption by the agricultural
sector. It initially limited domestic food production by decreasing
the subsidy on diesel fuel and is gradually reducing the
governments own purchase of local wheat. In 2009, it set a target
to gradually eliminate domestic wheat production over an eightyear period, while increasing incentives and loans for installing
modern irrigation systems, providing subsidies for animal feed
imports, banning the export of fodder and establishing strategic
food reserves (AFED 2010; Hussain et al. 2010).
Land degradation and desertification are linked with a number
of challenges including food production, biodiversity loss,
deterioration of water resources and climate change. National
action plans to combat land degradation and desertification
therefore need to be better integrated with sustainable
approaches to natural resources, biodiversity conservation
efforts and climate change initiatives (Ministry of Municipalities
Affairs and Land Use Planning 2010).
Many West Asian nations are currently implementing strong
coastal development plans. However, regional authorities
still need to confirm their commitment to protect coastal and
marine ecosystems through the application of ecosystem-based
management. The protection of marine and coastal areas from
climate change, oil spills and land-based sources of pollution
still represent important challenges for this region. The
development and implementation of strategies such as crisis
management and risk assessment represent very significant
tools for climate change adaptation and for the protection of
marine environments. The establishment of marine protected
areas and the application of integrated fisheries management
represent promising solutions to enhance marine biodiversity
conservation (Sheppard et al. 2010; Price 2002).
West Asia has vast and valuable renewable energy resources
but the energy sector is still characterized by heavy reliance on
fossil fuels, which results in adverse environmental impacts and
and environmental justice; capacity development; and improved

goal setting and monitoring systems.
Climate change
A major concern for many countries is how to build resilience,
especially in the most vulnerable communities, to climate change
impacts already set in motion by past greenhouse gas emissions.
Policies are oriented to climate change mitigation and adaptation
and disaster risk reduction.
Promising climate change policies already under implementation
include the removal of environmentally harmful subsidies, especially
on fossil fuels; carbon taxes; forestry incentives for carbon
sequestration; emissions trading schemes; climate insurance;
capacity building and financing; and climate change preparedness
and adaptation such as climate proofing infrastructure.
In an effort to reduce damage to coastal and marine ecosystems, Oman
has established two marine protected areas. iStock/Steven Allan
Energy
Legislative and institutional frameworks for developing
sustainable energy systems are needed to achieve global goals.
high carbon intensity. Policy efforts to promote energy efficiency

and renewable energy to mitigate climate change are evolving.
However, to achieve global goals and to develop sustainable
energy systems, the region still needs to strengthen its legislative
and institutional frameworks. In particular, the building sector in
West Asia is a major energy consumer, largely due to a significant
demand for air-conditioning. A switch to green building practices
is emerging through the adoption of building energy efficiency
codes, which, along with renewable energy development,
represents great opportunities for the entire region (Ministry
of Public Work and Housing 2009).
Successful policies include increased international cooperation in

the area of transfer and application of energy-saving technologies;
promotion of energy efficiency; increased use of renewable
energy; feed-in tariffs; restriction on fossil fuel subsidies; low
emission zones within cities; and research and development,
especially on batteries and other forms of energy storage.
COMMONALITIES
GEO-5s regional assessments, presented in Chapters 914,

identify policy responses and instruments based on best
practice. Common threads can be traced between and among the
regions with particular policy approaches proving successful in
a number of cases. Those policy responses adopted successfully
in more than one region have a greater likelihood of accelerating
achievement of internationally agreed goals.
Successful policy tools and instruments
At the regional and global levels, environmental governance has
evolved into a set of organizations, policy instruments, financing
mechanisms, rules, procedures and norms that regulate the
processes of environmental protection.
Absent or inadequate governance is one of the major issues in
sustainable development, and many proactive efforts are being
made to overcome these barriers, including multi-level/multistakeholder participation; increased introduction of the principle
of subsidiarity; governance at local levels; policy synergy
and removal of conflict; strategic environmental assessment;
accounting systems that value natural capital and ecosystem
services; improved access to information, public participation
Air pollution
Europe was the only region to select air pollution as a priority
theme and perform an appraisal of policy options.
Successful policies include fuel and vehicle emission standards;
control of industrial pollution through technical emission
controls, best available techniques, fuel switching and reduced
sulphur content in liquid fuels; and local air quality management
plans including adequate monitoring and information systems
and appropriate institutional mandates for local authorities.
Land
Land policy has a role in preventing environmental degradation
and its social and economic costs.
Clear and protected rights, and effective rules defining access
and regulating land, water and other natural resource use, are
all essential means of ensuring long-term sustainable land
and resources management. Successful policy options include
integrated watershed (catchment) management; resourceefficient urban growth; protecting prime agricultural land;
improved forest management; payment for ecosystem services
and REDD+; and agroforestry and silvo-pastoral practices.
Freshwater
The equitable and sustainable management of freshwater is a
major challenge for all water users, with most governments, from
the local to the international level, facing the need to realign
the availability of water with human and economics-based
Regional Summary
407
demand at levels that also maintain ecosystem integrity and

environmental sustainability. In large part, this realignment
requires the integration of environmental considerations,
alongside domestic, agricultural and industrial requirements, into
the drafting and implementation of national and international
policies and legislation. Given that environmental considerations
have historically been deemed secondary or even of no priority
in decision-making related to the allocation and management
of freshwater resources, the realignment will have to focus, at
least initially, on expanding the attention paid to environmental
concerns in the existing people-centred processes (UNEP 2010).
Policies identified as successful across the regions include
integrated water resources management; the conservation and
sustainable use of wetlands; promotion of water-use efficiency;
water metering and volumetric-based tariffs implemented at a
national or sub-national level; recognizing safe drinking water and
sanitation as a basic human right/need; and effluent charges.
Oceans and seas
Polices such as integrated coastal zone management and marine
protected areas, and economic instruments such as user fees
have provided a level of success in terms of management.
Biodiversity
Biodiversity policies promote the protection, conservation and
sustainable use of biologically diverse ecosystems and habitats.
In doing so, they create significant public benefits and contribute
to social well-being.
Successful policy instruments include market-based instruments
for ecosystem services, including payment for ecosystem
services and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+); increasing and improving the management
of protected areas; establishing transboundary biodiversity
and wildlife corridors; community-based participation and
management; and sustainable agricultural practices.
Chemicals and waste
Important international legal instruments and frameworks
have been adopted with regard to the sound management of
hazardous chemicals and wastes, including such policies as
the registration of chemicals; extended producer responsibility;
product redesign and design for the environment; life cycle
analysis; reduce, reuse and recycle the 3Rs alongside cleaner
production; national and regional hazardous waste treatment
systems; and control of inappropriate export and import of
hazardous chemicals and waste.
Applying policies in a more effective way
Many of the policies selected as promising are based on wellstudied and accepted management concepts such as integrated
water resources and coastal zone management, and protected
areas. However, some common conclusions were identified
across the regions, indicating that the application of these
management concepts can be innovative if certain principles
are adhered to.
408
Wastewater treatment aims to remove as much of the suspended solids

as possible before the remaining water or effluent is discharged
back to the environment. Christian Uhrig/iStock
Cross-cutting policies across themes and sectors

The selected policy options were often identified as being
promising because they are mutually reinforcing, with positive
impacts in more than one thematic domain.
It is important to maximize opportunities by focusing on
options that are mutually reinforcing and cross-cutting.
(Chapter 9 Africa)
The coherent application of effective policies across themes
and sectors can bring major benefits in terms of an improved
physical environment and a healthier population. (Chapter 11
Europe)
To be sustainable, the regions natural capital needs to be
managed in an integrated fashion across sectors. (Chapter 12
Latin America and the Caribbean)
Failure to introduce sectoral policy integration, policy mixes
and regional integration will intensify currently unsustainable
consumption and production patterns, especially for energy,
water, food security and marine resources, with the potentially
grave consequences of natural resource depletion and
increased pollution, which in turn impact human health and
well-being. (Chapter 14 West Asia)
Addressing drivers
There is increasing awareness among practitioners of a need
to shift attention away from the effects of environmental
degradation and instead focus on the underlying drivers.
Policy responses are beginning to shift from a focus on
environmental impacts to addressing the key drivers through
market- and information-based approaches. (Chapter 10
Asia and the Pacific)
Until policies begin to address some of the deeper,
underlying causes of environmental degradation or drivers
countries are unlikely to meet the goals and targets set

out in international, regional and national agreements.
(Chapter 12 Latin America and the Caribbean)
Monitoring, evaluation and accountability
Monitoring and evaluation can be used to improve policy design,
increase the accountability or ownership of stakeholders and
identify promising practices that can be applied subsequently
or in other country settings.
Investing in monitoring and evaluation, as well as social
learning, supports the revision and modification of policy
responses. Strong accountability helps secure government
and private-sector commitment to implementation and
to achieve agreed outcomes (Najam and Halle 2010).
Developing performance indicators rather than effort-based
indicators, such as the number of meetings held, improves
clarity about how and to what extent the purpose of the
policy is being achieved (Najam and Halle 2010). Strong
and effective national and sub-regional reporting systems
help hold implementing agencies to account and provide an
opportunity to document successes, which in turn set the
basis for up-scaling and replication. (Chapter 9 Africa)
Improved monitoring and data collection, and access to
information and legal redress, have the potential to alter
the drivers of environmental change and unsustainable
development. (Chapter 10 Asia and the Pacific)
Enabling conditions that would increase policy success
and replication include more efficient monitoring systems.
(Chapter 11 Europe)
Performance indicators are necessary to evaluate policy
progress and clearly identify successes and shortcomings.
(Chapter 13 North America)
The systematic collection, processing, analysis, production,
dissemination and exchange of environmental information
would lead to sound decision making and proper policy
formulation and implementation. (Chapter 14 West Asia)
Transboundary cooperation
Natural areas shared by neighbouring countries are not only a
common treasure, but also a common responsibility. They can
be either a source of conflict or a source of cooperation and
prosperity.
Cooperation has been shown to be effective for achieving
sustainable management, including policy options
for transboundary coastal and land-based resource
management, and where there are multiple stakeholders.
This has improved equity, enhanced skills sharing and
reduced conflict. (Chapter 9 Africa)
Efforts to enhance the sustainability of forests through
management face a lack of national capacity and awareness,
and intensifying competition in international forest product
markets. There is therefore an urgent need for transnational
coordination to address common and cross-border issues
(Hogl 2002). (Chapter 11 Europe)
Cooperation is an important element in improving
sustainability in the region. Cooperation between its
countries will facilitate the sharing of information, expertise
and technology transfer, the lack of which may currently

limit countries in moving to more sustainable paths of
development. It could also help to improve the management
of transboundary ecosystems and species. (Chapter 12
Latin America and the Caribbean)
Multi-stakeholder participation at local and national levels
The benefits of involving stakeholders in decision-making
processes have been acknowledged. They include opportunities
to share views, needs and knowledge; build consensus; enable
participants to influence outcomes; and build commitment and a
feeling of ownership to enhance and ensure implementation.
Several of the options presented, including sustainable
land management, show that a high degree of participation
at local and government levels helps to ensure relevance,
with good outcomes for strengthening sustainability.
Decentralization and devolution policies, including in
community-based resource management, have achieved
positive outcomes for communities and for the environment.
(Chapter 9 Africa)
Successful implementation of policies requires the
establishment of a planning framework for adaptive and
integrated management of water resources, under which
appropriate pricing and multi-stakeholder participation
are essential. Governance improvements are critical to
enhanced accountability as a means of achieving sustainable
development. (Chapter 10 Asia and the Pacific)
Enabling conditions that would increase policy success
and replication include a more active civil society engaged
through awareness raising and strong multi-stakeholder
agreements. (Chapter 11 Europe)
The standard governance principles and values of
transparency, accountability, equity, sustainability and
inclusive participation of all stakeholders are fundamental for
strengthening governance frameworks. (Chapter 12 Latin
America and the Caribbean)
Active stakeholder involvement, with explicit discussion of
issues, improves decision making and acceptance, offering
advantages over top-down planning, which often lacks public
support and understanding. (Chapter 13 North America)
Environmental governance, rather than merely focusing on
environmental policies, needs to take account of societies
common goals and engage with various stakeholders in the
design and execution of policies. (Chapter 14 West Asia)
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITES
Traditionally, policy analyses have been conducted in the context

of a specific plan, programme or project at the local or national
level, focusing on economic and social costs and benefits and
involving specific stakeholder groups. But policy analysis now
faces new challenges as rules and norms adapt to changing
expectations (Hajer 2003). The GEO-5 policy mandate aimed to
extend the scope of analysis and appraisal to identify successful
environmental policies in the regions and to highlight their
potential to speed up the achievement of internationally agreed
goals. The analysis is intended to provide policy makers with
promising avenues for exploration.
Regional Summary
409
It is not certain whether the policies identified and appraised are

the optimal choices with respect to the selected international
goal, although there is evidence of their effectiveness.
Furthermore, clusters of policies were identified, not just
individual ones, acknowledging that most policies are
implemented as part of a complementary package. Whether
a policy could be effective in a different context or on a
different scale is uncertain: for many policies, direct evidence
of the specific reasons for their effectiveness is limited, as is
evidence of the potential for their transferability and replication.
Undoubtedly, political will remains an essential ingredient for
success. However, direct causality is always difficult to isolate in
dynamic systems such as societies. Inconvenient variables can
be difficult to eliminate, and convenient ones usually cannot be
introduced spontaneously. So experimentation and observation
must continue despite inherent problems.
Addressing shared environmental problems through regional

cooperation can support the transfer of innovative solutions
based on common characteristics of terrain, climate, economic
activities and history, among others, which increases the
likelihood of success. Transboundary approaches often enhance
cooperation and reduce conflict by facilitating dialogue,
establishing networks and encouraging learning and knowledge
sharing. This helps create the political stability needed for
economic and development cooperation.
Information and indicators
Chapters 914 offer many examples of successful transboundary

initiatives:
In Africa, although there are significant variations in focus,
structure, delivery and scope, the rapid increase in transboundary
natural resource management demonstrates that this policy,
despite some challenges, has high potential for replication
and for managing Africas diverse shared ecosystems.
In Asia and the Pacific, transboundary collaboration fosters
the cooperation of national institutions to the benefit of
multiple countries, as demonstrated by several examples
involving cross-boundary interest in protecting areas with
high levels of biodiversity such as the Greater Mekong subregion, the Terai Arc landscape in India and Nepal, SuluSulawesi marine areas and the Coral Triangle.
The transboundary nature of most European rivers calls
for close international cooperation, and integrated
water resources management is increasingly the guiding
mechanism for implementation.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, transboundary
cooperation and integration in the energy sector have been
shown to increase electricity supply, widen coverage and
enhance system functionality.
The International Watersheds Initiative, which was conceived
by the governments of Canada and the United States,
promotes the establishment of watershed authorities and
facilitates integrated transboundary watershed management.
In West Asia, there are conflicting national interests in forging
equitable sharing agreements for transboundary resources.
These issues, however, could be addressed through
integrated water resources management supported by strong
commitment by decision makers to place water high on the
political agenda.
Investing in and generating environmental knowledge and

translating it into information that can be used in governance
and policy development are essential for management success
(Adger et al. 2005), and require a better interface between
science, policy makers and communities. To influence policy
and decision making effectively, environmental information
should be transformed into scientifically derived, easily
understood indicators that convey clear messages to policy
makers and the public (UNESCO-SCOPE 2006; Cimorelli and
Stahl 2005).
Policy instruments designed to increase accountability and
transparency seek to make information on environmental
performance and the impacts of resource use more widely
available, facilitating decision making and mobilizing a variety
of stakeholders. Relevant information and indicators also help
in monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of policies and
determining whether they allowed management approaches to
adapt to new conditions these are important elements of good
environmental governance. At regional and sub-regional levels
mechanisms for sharing information and knowledge could be
better utilized.
Environmental impact assessment for individual projects,
cumulative impact assessment for series of projects, and
strategic environmental assessment for policies, plans and
programmes all provide essential information (World Bank
2006). Documented cases of policies that appear to have made
a contribution to achieving environmental goals can also be
valuable. The promising policies described are illustrated by
case studies, which provide insights into the context within
which they were successful.
Transboundary and regional cooperation
Environmental problems do not respect borders. The

transboundary nature of environmental degradation is the result
of scale, as pollution or damage affect larger and larger areas.
Solving transboundary environmental problems can provide an
opportunity to establish regional cooperation.
410
Other benefits of cooperation are an augmentation of national

efforts, the transfer of capacities and conservation efforts
involving several stakeholders across borders. The key challenges
are sustainability, the differing capacities of the institutions
involved and the political nature of cooperation whenever
sensitive sovereign issues arise.
Challenges specific to each region influence policy

approaches
Each region reflects varying characteristics population, area,

level of internal cohesiveness regarding shared history and
culture, language, wealth distribution and education. Questions
of political will, economic capacity, history and other intangibles
persist, with the regions weighing these differently.
In Africa, population growth, rapid urbanization, climate change,

unsustainable development choices and weak governance persist
as critical challenges to achieving both the environmental and
the social aspects of important regional goals. Addressing human
well-being was taken as a point of departure for strengthening
environmental policy and implementation. The support of
donors has been crucial to the implementation of some policies.
The principles of the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness
ownership, harmonization, alignment, management for results
and mutual accountability define collaboration with donors
and are designed to ensure that aid supports agreed government
priorities and uses, and strengthens, government systems rather
than developing parallel institutions.
The Asia and Pacific region has become a global engine of
economic growth, but this success has come at the cost of some
of the planets most threatened ecosystems. Many of the policies
being adopted in the region had their origin and initial trials in
other regions, often Europe and the United States. The failure to
implement many of these policies successfully may stem from
the assumption that if a policy works in a developed country
then it should also work in a developing one. For example, the
strong command-and-control policy regime to manage air and
water pollution in the United States, involving standard setting,
permits and prosecution of offenders, tends not to work as well
in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific (AECEN 2004).
A policy regime built around voluntary compliance, the social
pressures of naming and shaming polluters, and compensation
where appropriate may be more applicable for the socio-cultural
context of the region, although measures of effectiveness require
further analysis.
In Europe, concerns about long-term threats to the environment
and human health persist, the latter especially for its large
urban population (EEA 2010). Despite some successes in
decoupling environmental pressures from economic growth,
Europes environmental footprint remains disproportionately
high due to the continued unsustainable use of natural
resources, both within and outside the region, to satisfy the
high consumption and production level of its inhabitants
(Chapters 17) (EEA 2010). To deal with these trends an
integrated policy approach is required, for which strong
governance mechanisms need to be in place. Given that Central
and Western Europe in particular have a dense network of
political boundaries, a regional focus to tackle environmental
issues is necessary, with focus on transboundary as well as
global environmental decision making. Regular monitoring,
reporting and assessment required by legislation are an integral
part of EU environmental governance.
Latin American and Caribbean countries face many challenges
in managing their rich natural resources. Population growth,
as well as unsustainable global and regional production and
consumption patterns, drives the increasing demand for and
extraction of raw materials and other natural capital (Chapter 1).
This has led to the extensive conversion of natural environments
to productive systems, with impacts on the regions biodiversity.
To be sustainable, the regions natural capital needs to be

managed in an integrated fashion across sectors. To respond to
the complex nature of the regions environment, its opportunities
and challenges, policies should be designed and implemented
in ways that transcend the traditional compartmentalized,
sectoral approach. This will help the region deal with some of
its persistent environmental and associated socio-economic
problems, including poverty, inequity and social conflict.
In North America, changes in regional demographics, rapidly
emerging global economies and resource constraints all
challenge the countries provision of public goods and services.
At the same time, fragmented governance, policy instability, lack
of clear targets and science policy, and the dilemma of whether
to address global issues rather than seeking local solutions,
hampers the achievement of environmental goals (Chapter 1).
Federal governments are no longer the primary leaders in setting
the policy agenda or devising innovative policy instruments, yet
they remain essential to the ultimate success of those policies,
help ensure harmonization across jurisdictions and prevent the
development of environmental inequities. In addition, there is
a strong tendency to favour market-based instruments because
of early successes, and to overlook traditional regulatory
instruments. Finally, relative federal disengagement has opened
the door to policy initiatives and innovations at sub-national
levels, by states and provinces or municipalities, as well as to
regional transboundary cooperation. The latter is extensive and
continues to expand, and its dynamics are further supported by
the Commission for Environmental Cooperation, which oversees
the environmental accord of the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA).
The drivers of environmental change in West Asia are linked to
peace and security, demography and the state of the economy.
The international desire to secure valuable energy resources
and disputes, including current political conflict, play a major
role in ongoing environmental degradation. Environmental
damage is escalating and the number of displaced people
is increasing, straining the environment and contributing to
the degradation of land and water resources (UNEP 2010).
Although environmental policies in the region have developed
over the past two decades and continue to progress, they
need to become proactive rather than reactive. Additionally,
environmental governance, rather than merely focusing on
environmental policies, needs to take account of societies
common goals and engage with various stakeholders in the
design and execution of policies. The integration of sectoral
policies is also important. Regional environmental governance
is crucial for the regions countries share many common
environmental conditions.
Challenges in policy replication
There is a degree of scepticism as to whether a policy can be

successfully reproduced and applied in different circumstances
and for different stakeholders with different needs and
expectations. The differing governance contexts and enabling
environments in a region as diverse as Asia and the Pacific, for
Regional Summary
411
example, may be barriers to adoption. However, as suggested

in Chapter 10, there is sufficient experience with several of the
priority policies analysed to justify faster replication.
The Asia and Pacific region (Chapter 10) considered the following
factors when evaluating the potential for replication of policies:
how many countries have already implemented such policies;
how quickly the policies have been adopted by multiple
countries since their first introduction;
how easily the private sector has been convinced that the
policies are not harmful to their businesses; and
how the policies have contributed co-benefits that made
them even more acceptable.
Part of the above analysis relates to the enabling and/or
impeding factors that have led to the success or otherwise of
specific policies. Europe (Chapter 11) identified the following
enabling conditions for policy success and replication:
more policy coherence, streamlining and simplified
procedures that enhance cost efficiency and effectiveness;
more efficient monitoring systems;
stronger long-term commitment on the part of politicians
and governments;
stronger enforcement;
transnational coordination to address common and crossborder issues;
stronger private-sector involvement by creating and making
better use of markets; and
a more active civil society engaged through awareness raising
and strong multi-stakeholder agreements.
The Latin America and Caribbean region (Chapter 12) has
developed and implemented good examples of policies and
approaches, usually at national and sub-national levels, that
offer opportunities for replication both within and outside
the region. Their characteristics usually include the effective

incorporation of scientific information, knowledge and best
practice, links across sectors, strong governance mechanisms,
stakeholder participation, and political will and support.
The potential for transferability and replication of policies
identified in North America (Chapter 13) is not straightforward
and is dependent on context and specific instrument design.
For example, the institutional framework of the North American
electricity grid is highly fragmented, while many other countries
have nationally owned networks (Willrich 2009). Denmark,
France, Germany, Italy and Japan all have experience with
feed-in tariffs at the national levels, while the United States
and Australia have experience of production tax credits and
renewable portfolio standards (IEA 2011). Policies on feed-in
tariffs and renewable energy portfolio standards are in force in a
variety of jurisdictions including Canada, China, Kenya, Portugal
and Uganda (IEA 2011). Statistically, correlations demonstrate
that the policies are effective, particularly in the case of feed-in
tariffs (Haas et al. 2011). Direct causal evidence of effectiveness
of other policies, however, is limited, as is evidence of their
potential for transfer to and replication in other jurisdictions
(Carley 2009; Doris et al. 2009).
In West Asia (Chapter 14), an excellent policy in one country does
not usually stand alone and, as such, cannot easily be transferred
or successfully replicated in its original form (UN ESCWA 2007).
New circumstances, new management and various interdependent
problems such as poor and low implementation capacities, lack
of financial resources and marginalized local stakeholders, can
make many successful programmes lose their effectiveness when
replicated. The Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the
Environment (CAMRE) played, and continues to play, a major role
in the coordination of environmental policies of the Arab countries
at regional and global levels and has ensured a certain level of
replication of environmental policies among West Asian countries.
Enforcement officers on a survey mission at the Myanmar-Thailand border discuss joint action to combat transnational crime through regionally
organized law enforcement, October 2011. UNODC
412
On the other hand, examples of successful replication from within and

across regions provide possible tools for ensuring further success.
Sharing experiences between practitioners and stakeholders may
be a first step to a better understanding of the specific conditions
in which a policy has been successful, and whether it could be
replicated in another context, and to what extent.
Compliance and enforcement
However admirably designed, sensitively implemented and wisely

administered, policies emerging from internationally agreed goals
must be enforced to ensure continuity and accountability, but
decision makers rarely give sufficient priority to this. Political will
and leadership are required at all levels of implementation and
enforcement. Compliance regimes can be more effective if the
authority with responsibility is clearly identified and transparency
is maintained to allow both higher levels of government and
citizen-stakeholders to understand where the enforcement falls
short. In this way, policy success is achievable.
Future work
Efforts to make the greatest possible use of quantitative evidence

of policy effectiveness have highlighted opportunities for future
work. In particular, there is a great need for governments and
organizations to increase policy monitoring, for further research
into policy effectiveness, and for the development of assessment
methodologies that take greater account of synergistic policy
effects and feedbacks.
PLANETARY POLICY PERSPECTIVES
The policies presented in GEO-5 can be analysed for their utility

to leverage societal transformation. Understanding the potential
of these policies, alone or in combination, could help facilitate
transformative change and enhance the effect that policy makers
have on reaching sustainable development objectives at local,
national, regional and international levels.
Feedback and adjustments managing markets
These include price adjustment and other market instruments

that are intended to reduce burdens and provide signals that
correct or reinforce patterns of behaviour.
Example 1: Volumetric-based tariffs and water metering in
Armenia (Chapter 11)
Metering, cost-recovery tariffs and proper pricing structures
stimulate more responsible water use while generating funds
for the maintenance of the supply system.
Various studies reveal that, on average, if individual metering
systems are in place, reductions of 1040 per cent can be
achieved in household water use (Inman and Jeffrey 2006;
Scheuer 2005).
Soon after the reforms took place in Armenia, average water
use decreased three to four times compared to use based
on flat-rate calculations. The massive process of introducing
individual metering became a trigger for a chain of water
sector improvements, all backed by a legal, regulatory
and institutional framework that enabled private-sector
involvement accompanied by investment and management

efficiencies. As a result, the quality and reliability of water
delivery improved.
Example 2: Carbon taxes in British Columbia (Chapter 13)
The revenue-neutral carbon tax in British Columbia phased
in rate increases starting at a modest US$10 per tonne of
CO2-equivalent in 2008, increasing at a rate of US$5 a year
thereafter to US$30 a tonne in 2012.
The taxs revenue neutrality is achieved by allowing tax
reductions for businesses as well as for poorer sections of
society who also receive payments.
The tax applies to emissions from fossil fuels, accounting for
approximately 70 per cent of the provinces total emissions
(emissions from fossil fuels exported from British Columbia to
other jurisdictions are exempt).
Addressing the drawbacks typically associated with carbon
taxes may have enhanced the acceptability of British Columbias
policy. This includes mitigating or eliminating the potentially
regressive nature of carbon taxation by its comprehensive
coverage combined with targeted tax reductions, and
reducing potentially large adaptation costs for carbonintensive industries through a gradual phase-in of the tax.
Rules and incentives state action
The creation and administration of rules is a key policy leverage

point, as these have direct influence on and power over the
actions of individuals and groups.
Example 1: The Free Basic Water Policy of South Africa, allowing
households to benefit from free, secure access to water (Chapter 9)
The South African constitution provides a right of access
to sufficient water, implemented through the Free Basic
Water Policy. Many impoverished households benefit from
secure access to at least 25 litres of water per person per day
within 200 metres of the household for domestic use (Mehta
2005). This is in line with the World Health Organizations
recommendation for minimum consumption, though it does
not cover broader health and livelihood needs.
Positive outcomes include a saving of the time and effort
women and girls spend collecting water, freeing them to
engage in other activities, removing the need to resort to
unprotected water sources and reducing vulnerability to
water-borne disease (Mehta 2005). In addition, citizens
directly attribute such policies to good governance, and this
in turn supports long-term political stability.
A major challenge for the policy is to strike a balance between
the human benefits and the cost (DWAF 2002). However,
improvements in human well-being are seen as outweighing
the associated costs (Stalk 2004).
Failure to provide the legally guaranteed quantity has
resulted in citizens instituting litigation.
Critical enabling factors include addressing cost recovery,
identifying target groups, ensuring financing, managing
demand and facilitating the expansion of infrastructure.
Example 2: Energy conservation in buildings in Kuwait (Chapter 14)
Regional Summary
413
Demand for electrical power in Kuwait has progressively

increased, particularly in the past two decades. As all
electricity generation depends on fossil fuels, power plants
consume about 55 per cent of Kuwaits total primary energy.
In addition, 85 per cent of electrical peak power and 60 per
cent of the countrys total annual output is used for airconditioning and lighting in buildings.
The Ministry of Energy in Kuwait launched its energy code
for buildings in 1983 with a set of mandatory standards and
regulations to enhance energy conservation and decrease the
progressive negative impacts on the climate.
The main objectives of the building code, which is applied to
new and retrofitted air-conditioned buildings, are to decrease
the capacity of air-conditioning systems and to reduce peak
power demand by introducing smaller units.
Implementation of the energy code has saved Kuwait nearly
US$10 billion over the past two decades.
Mindsets civil society
Measures that shift the paradigms guiding individual behaviour

create shared mindsets that translate into vision, goals and
collective action.
Example 1: Payment for ecosystems services including
the costs of environmental and resource use in the value of
ecosystems (Chapter 12)
In general terms, payment for ecosystem services schemes
offer incentives, usually monetary, to individuals to protect
and ensure the delivery of key ecosystem services at the
local, national and regional levels.
The mechanism can address many of the driving forces of
biodiversity loss, especially habitat loss and unsustainable
land management, as it usually aims to protect and/or
rehabilitate natural vegetation.
Payment for ecosystem services can be used in conjunction
with other policies such as protected areas, integrated water
resources management, conservation and restoration of
water-supplying ecosystems, sustainable forest management,
small-scale agro-ecological systems and the recovery of
degraded lands.
Lack of information on economic valuation highlights the
need to invest more in research and further the scientific
understanding of local environmental conditions.
Example 2: Participation in the management of natural resources
in India and Nepal (Chapter 10)
In India, about 22 million hectares of forests are included
in the Joint Forest Management programme, under which
more than 100 000 committees formed by forest-fringe
communities protect patches of state-owned forest, receiving
a share of forest resources in return (MOEF 2009a).
In conjunction with stringent legislation prohibiting the use
of forest land for non-forestry purposes, forest cover has
stabilized after decades of rapid deforestation (MOEF 2009b).
Additional incentives for participation have been created by
a constitutional amendment that mandates decentralization
and devolution of power to local authorities at village,
414
intermediate and district levels (MLJ 2011).

In Nepal, more than 14 000 community forest user groups
have access to fuelwood and fodder, and are additionally
provided with income-generating opportunities (DoF 2011).
CONCLUSION
This summary shows that in response to common concerns in

the regions over freshwater, climate change and environmental
governance, there are a variety of successful responses
ranging from local actions to guarantee water quality, through
transboundary agreements to tackle concerns affecting shared
resources, to national programmes designed to shift the
behaviour of whole economic sectors.
Improvements in governance are crucial if global goals are to be
achieved, requiring the integration of sustainability concerns
across all policy areas. Key elements, highlighted by the
regions, include better enforcement at all appropriate levels of
government, improved monitoring and data collection, greater
access to information, increased multi-stakeholder participation
and capacity building.
Whether a policy is replicable in a different context and on a
different scale remains uncertain. Direct evidence of specific
reasons for effectiveness is limited, as is evidence of the
potential for transferability. The effectiveness of a specific policy
or instrument and its potential to be scaled up or implemented
elsewhere depends on significant context-specific variables,
on the nature of the specific environmental issue, and on the
existence of detailed and rigorous analyses of factors associated
with its effectiveness in terms of behavioural change.
Nonetheless, common elements can be seen among the regions,
with particular policy approaches proving successful in a number
of places. Some of these, such as integrated approaches to
water resources and coastal zone management or the creation
of protected areas, draw on well-established concepts. But
significantly, where policies have been successfully replicated,
there is evidence that their application has taken significant
account of local cultures, conditions and needs.
Responses at the local, national, regional and international
levels interact and generate incremental, structural and
transformational change. There is no universal solution to
environmental degradation and a range of responses is required
to address the diversity of regional needs. However, on issues
of common global concern, coordination, participation, and
cooperation are vital for meeting jointly internationally agreed
goals and targets, while also addressing the capacity deficits of
a range of countries.
Better progress in achieving internationally agreed goals can
be made if policies apply leverage at the most advantageous
place. Examples of promising policies identified in the regional
chapters can be found at all leverage levels, namely feedback
and adjustments in managing markets; rules and incentives in
state action; and mindsets at the level of civil society.
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Chapter 16:
Scenarios and Sustainability

Transformation
Chapter 17:
Global Responses
Imagine our descendants in the year 2200 or 2500. They might liken us to
aliens who have treated the Earth as if it were a mere stopover for refueling, or
even worse, characterize us as barbarians who would ransack their own home.
Living up to the Anthropocene means building a culture that grows with Earths
biological wealth instead of depleting it. Remember, in this new era, nature is us.
Paul J. Crutzen, Nobel Lauriate
418
C H A P T E R
16
Cathy Keifer/iStock
Coordinating lead authors: Begum Ozkaynak, Laszlo Pinter and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Lead authors: Livia Bizikova, Villy Christensen, Martina Floerke, Marcel Kok, Paul Lucas,
Diane Mangalagiu, Rob Alkemade, Trista Patterson, John Shilling and Darren Swanson
Contributing authors: Andrea Bassi, Fabio Feldmann, Jill Jger, Washington Ochola,
Weishuang Qu, Kilaparti Ramakrishna, Claudia Ringler, Pinar Ertor (GEO Fellow) and
Natalia Pervushina (GEO Fellow)
Chapter coordinators: Matthew Billot and Nalini Sharma
Regional Summary
419
Main Messages
Meeting an ambitious set of sustainability targets
by the middle of the century is possible but current
supporting policies and strategies are not adequate
to achieve this. Scenario studies show that without
greater efforts to implement appropriate short-term
policies, to shift investments to achieve necessary
long-term structural changes, and to introduce
behavioural transformations, it will not be possible to
meet sustainability targets. These relate to international
agreements on environmental protection and human
development for issues like atmosphere and climate
change, land and food security, water and biodiversity.
Transforming both consumption and production is
important. Scenario studies suggest that targets can
be met, but only if measures are taken to influence the
levels and patterns of consumption and production.
Most current policies focus on changes in production
processes to achieve targets, but fail to address
consumption. However, changes in consumption
levels and patterns have great but as yet unrealized
potential to reduce environmental pressures.
Effective implementation of wide-ranging technical
and policy measures needs to be supported by a
shift in underlying motivations and value patterns.
Changes need to be both short and long term, and
420
420

to combine technology, investment and governance

measures along with lifestyle modifications
grounded in a mindset shift towards values based on
sustainability and equity. They also need to reflect
regional differences and priorities. Technical measures
alone are unlikely to be enough, and will not have the
required level of societal support if not accompanied
by transformations at all leverage points.
Accomplishing such complex transformations
requires a gradual but steadily accelerating
transition process. Some successful policy
innovations are already happening, but need
to be mainstreamed to be more effective. There
is also a need to stop doing the things that pull the
Earth System towards unsustainability. At the same
time, it is important to provide resources, build
capacity and create an enabling environment
in a way that is consistent with visions of a
sustainable world.
Broad-based social contracts grounded in jointly
developed visions of a sustainable future would
help to bring key stakeholders on board. The
transition requires a high degree of consensus
and coordination of action between social actors
governments, the private sector and civil society.
To ensure coherence, contextually sensitive

transition pathways could be developed as joint
visions of the future. These can be agreed on as
informal or formal social contracts that respect the
requirement to assure sustainable access to the
resources necessary for human well-being.
The transition process needs to be based on
adaptive management. Uncertainties play a key role
in the problems of the Earth System. As a result,
management should be based on learning-by-doing
processes, periodic reassessment based on new
learning, and a great diversity of measures. This will
provide better insurance against wholesale failure on
critical issues due either to inherent uncertainties
or inadequate implementation and be mutually
strengthening as well.
There is a need for clear long-term environment
and development targets and for stronger
accountability in international agreements.
Given that environmental and societal Earth
System changes can be slow, long-term visions
and goals expressed as social contracts
could help focus investments and technology
development, induce societal change, and engage
other actors in society.

421
421
INTRODUCTION
The nature and scale of changes described in Part 1 indicate that,

without additional policies, the global environment will degrade
further from a situation that already raises considerable
concern. A crucial question, therefore, is how to halt and reverse
such trends.
While previous Global Environment Outlook (GEO) reports have
explored several scenarios looking at very different futures
(UNEP 2002, 2007), the emphasis of GEO-5 is on the choices and
strategies that could, from 2012, lead to a sustainable future.
This is advanced by looking at two very different storylines based
on a review of existing scenario studies:
a view of the world in 2050 assuming business-as-usual
paths and behaviours conventional world scenarios; and
an alternative that leads to results consistent with our current
understanding of sustainability and agreed-upon goals and
targets on the road to 2050 sustainable world scenarios.
A key difference between the two is how deeply transformation
occurs, supporting the emergence of alternative development
trajectories (Figure 16.1).
The ambitious goals of this systemic transformation require
increasing the power of collective thinking, creativity and
coordination. Cultivating profound long-term change is neither
a linear nor a simple process, especially in complex dynamic
systems that often exhibit non-linear behaviour or tipping
points (Lenton et al. 2008; Folke et al. 2002; Levin 1998). For
this reason, knowledge of the component parts of a system,
their relationships, interactions and emergent behaviour can
help policy makers understand, anticipate and strategize
outcomes for the longer run, even when evidence of those
changes may not be immediately apparent. Sustainable world
scenarios represent and require many fundamental shifts in
Targets
Policy commitments or
planetary boundaries
s
orld
ble w
a
n
i
e
a
-t
Sust
o ng
short-term l ition
t ra ns
Con
ven
tion
al w
orld
s
rm
State of the environment
Figure 16.1 Conventional world and sustainable

world scenarios in GEO-5
Time
Source: Adapted from PBL 2012
422
society-environment interactions. These scenario outcomes

are designed to be consistent with the best available science
on the Earth System and the aspirations for environment
and sustainable development manifested in multilateral
agreements. They combine the effects of mainstreaming
promising measures that already exist with change at
progressively deeper structural levels.
A system is a set of things here, people and ecosystems in the
Earth System that interact with one another within a defined
boundary, and that produce their own pattern of behaviour
over time. Complexity theory shows that small, calculated,
strategically applied actions can effect great change. In a
complex system, leverage points are those where the outcome is
disproportionate to the input. Identifying and acting on effective
leverage points is especially difficult in cases in which casting
off old paradigms is involved, but once a leverage point has
been pushed in the right direction, the resultant change can be
particularly lasting and profound (Meadows 1999).
Magical leverage points are not easily accessible, even
if we know where they are and which direction to push
them on. There are no cheap tickets to mastery. You have
to work at it, whether that means rigorously analyzing a
system or rigorously casting off your own paradigms and
throwing yourself into the humility of Not Knowing.
Donella H. Meadows
Figure 16.2 depicts the transformative layers where leverage
points may be found. The more embedded drivers are in the
system, the more enduring and profound the change needs to
be: shifting mindsets is at the core of transformation because
it translates into visions, goals and collective action. Changing
rules and incentives is literally a game changer in the pursuit
of transformation, because the right incentives can create
structural change and influence key drivers. The outer layer of
transformation involves creating and listening to feedback and
making adjustments to environmental pressures to maintain
progress towards sustainability.
Shepherding a complex dynamic system through transition is
not a linear or unidirectional process, and progress or setbacks
occurring in each layer continuously influence the others. Thus a
policy approach that diversifies strategy across all the layers of
transformation presents a diverse and resilient portfolio for using
leverage to its greatest advantage. The result is an integrated
policy that produces both short-term and profound long-term
system shifts by cultivating and targeting ever deeper system
change over time, while monitoring it as well as feeding it with
successes at more superficial levels. Clearly, producing these
outcomes requires an ability to accept some uncertainty, while
also holding a strong focus on integrating and documenting
progress towards a clearly articulated vision of success. The
section on visions, goals and targets on the road to 2050
articulates a vision of a desired state of the environment, with
goals and targets based on existing
international agreements.
Figure 16.2 Layers of transformation
Feedback and
adjustments
Rules and
incentives
Mindsets
Surface layer: listening to system

feedback and adjusting environmental
pressures maintains progress
Mid layer: using the right rules and
incentives can create structural change
and significantly influence key drivers
Deep layer: shared mindsets translate
into vision, goals and collective action
Source: Meadows 1999
The section on sustainability pathways reviews existing

scenarios to provide an outlook for the drivers of environmental
change and the pathways that society could follow on the
road to 2050 to achieve goals and targets. Over the last few
years, a large number of scenario-based assessments of global
environmental problems and human development have been
published, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) climate assessments (Nakicenovic and Swart
2000), the Global Environment Outlook reports (UNEP 2007,
2002), the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA 2005a), the
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology
Development (IAASTD 2009b) and the World Water Development
Reports (UNESCO 2009, 2006). Most of these used an explorative
approach with widely diverging scenarios that assess what might
happen in the future. Van Vuuren et al. (2011a) discuss many
of the assessments and highlight emerging commonalities.
Generally, the scenarios explore a wide range of possible
outcomes but, importantly and by design, almost none
involves meeting sustainability targets or sets them out as
an objective. In contrast, some visioning exercises carried out
by various organizations, such as the World Business Council
on Sustainable Development (WBCSD 2010), the International
Geosphere Biosphere Programme (Jger and Cornell 2011) and
UNEPs Green Economy Report (UNEP 2011c), have tried to do so.
The section on advancing sustainability explores strategic
elements that have the potential to advance the transition
onto pathways consistent with visions of a sustainable world.
Changing the current unsustainable course demands a scale
of effort without precedent in human history (Steffen et al.
2005). Meeting this challenge will require a diverse portfolio of
strategies and measures, partly as a form of insurance against
failure, but also to reflect the different and dynamically changing
condition of individual countries and ecosystems around the

world (Innes et al. 2005; Speth 2005). Taking into account
recent scientific advances in understanding the functioning and
governance of closely coupled human systems and ecosystems,
this section provides guidance for developing response measures
and strategies at the sub-global level. A strategic element
identifies visioning and the ability to build social and political
consensus around visions of sustainable-future outcomes as
essential but underrated aspects of sustainable development
governance (Costanza 2000; Meadows 1996). society-wide
relearning and the phase-out of unsustainable policies and
practices are discussed, coupled with the redirection of
resources towards high-leverage intervention points, including
those that better align peoples mindsets with sustainability and
redefine the common meaning of progress as something broader
and more meaningful than gross domestic product (GDP). Finally,
the need for approaching the transition as an adaptive learning
process to build resilience (Loorbach 2007; Holling 2001; Lee
1993) is identified. While providing guidance at the sub-global
level, these strategic elements also serve as a starting point for
the discussion of responses within international institutions.
VISIONS, GOALS AND TARGETS ON THE ROAD TO 2050

This section introduces a sustainable world vision for 2050
with specific goals and targets derived mainly from existing
international agreements. Visioning activates awareness,
emotion and imagination with the intention of bringing new
systems into being, while the 40-year perspective allows enough
space for societies to identify policy options and initiate the
structural transformations required.
The challenge of meeting both human needs and human

aspirations within the planets carrying capacity makes the overall
423
ambition complex (UNEP 2011c, 2007; WBCSD 2010;

MA 2005b; WCED 1987). A number of countries have attained
high levels of human development, but this has often been
at the expense of the global natural resource base and
environmental quality, and has resulted in high levels of
Upper andgreenhouse
lower forest area
gasprojections
emissions (Figure 16.3). Given the analysis in
Million km2
Part 1, it is clear that this development path is not sustainable
in the long run. Many other countries, meanwhile, are faced with
prioritizing the basic human needs of their citizens such as
energy, food and water over protecting the global commons.
In general, these countries currently exert a lower per-person
pressure on the global environment, but the overall pressure can
still be significant where the population is large, or where there are
local environmental problems. Furthermore, when future dynamics
are taken into account, the situation may get even worse.
A vision of a sustainable world could be based on the
simultaneous achievement of broad overarching goals that take
into account the fulfilment of basic human needs, mainly related
to reliable and affordable energy, food, drinking water and
sanitation, and the achievement of environmental sustainability
at the global, national, regional and local levels. Such a vision
was the basis of the 1992 Rio Declaration and was advanced
further in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (UN 2000).
Farmers thresh their rice harvest in Punakha, Bhutan, the first country
to include the concept of happiness in its national measurements of
development. Gill Fickling/UN Photo
visioning is critical to crafting profound and enduring change.

Vision statements have a specific form: they describe the future,
yet they are phrased in the present tense as if the desired change
had already occurred. Box 16.1 presents a possible vision for
A sustainable world cannot be realized until it is widely and actively

envisioned. Of the available tools to address the challenges ahead,
Figure 16.3 Twin challenge

Ecological footprint 2007 (global hectares per person)
12
UNDP threshold for

high human development
10
World average biocapacity per person in 1961

World average biocapacity per person in 2007
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0
1.0
Human Development Index 2007

This figure plots countries on the basis of two indicators: the Human Development Index (HDI) and the ecological footprint per person. In order to
achieve sustainability, countries must move towards the bottom right corner and as such decouple human development from natural resource use
and environmental impacts (UNEP 2011c). The figure shows that worldwide, no country held that position in 2007.
Note: A global hectare is a hypothetical area equivalent to 1 hectare of globally averaged productivity.
424
Source: Global Footprint Network 2010; UNDP 2009
Box 16.1 A possible vision of the world on a path towards sustainability in 2050
The year is 2050. What appeared to be so improbable at the
start of the second decade of the century is turning out to be
possible, after all. Changes have been great, and there have
been deep losses. Although people expect and are prepared
for far greater changes than any yet experienced, a sense of
possibility abounds as there have been so many successes.
Climate change is still a problem, but emissions have nearly
halved compared to four decades ago. Basic drinking water
and sanitation needs of even the poorest have been met.
Learning and mimicking natures resilience has helped restore
ecological function in areas once considered irretrievably
lost. The most devastating projections for ocean acidification,
groundwater salinity, desertification and land degradation have
not materialized with real implications for the food system
worldwide. An eco-efficient, highly diversified agricultural
system ensures that food shortages are infrequent, local,
and mostly due to extreme weather events. Civil instability
and conflict over resources, food and water is now rare. More
humans enjoy a higher quality of life for longer than ever before,
without denying future generations the same possibility.
Most of the worlds citizens are actively and personally
engaged with humanitys goal of living within planetary
limits. Peak oil and peaks in the supply of some other natural
resources have come and gone, but thanks to radical changes
in lifestyle and resource productivity, have not led to the
disruption of absolute scarcity. Leadership is everywhere; as a
result, diverse, innovative, bottom-up initiatives abound and
are spread through social networks, faster than ever before.
2050, in line with the internationally agreed goals summarized in

Table 16.1. Its transition pathways and key strategic elements are
described in the subsequent sections of this chapter.
Obviously, other important global sustainable development
targets exist, and the vision and goals outlined here (Box 16.1;
Table 16.1) cannot provide a complete picture of a sustainable
world. A vision develops through evolution and must have
contributions from many people before it is mature and
compelling. Thus, the vision captured here is only a start: it
represents an invitation to individuals to envision the world they
really want in 2050. Catalysing human imagination is integral to
realizing a sustainable, desirable future.
The analysis that follows reflects the thematic structure of Part
1: first the global drivers of environmental change, followed
by the environmental themes of atmosphere, land, water and
biodiversity. As there has been little scenario building on the
theme of Chapter 6 chemicals and waste it is not included in
this analysis, although for the sake of completeness it appears
in Table 16.1. Since meeting basic human needs is crucial to a
Governance systems, more than ever, are creating synergistic

impacts. There has been a tangible shift in the willingness
to look for truly sustainable alternatives, a consensus to
aim for prosperity rather than continued economic growth
at all costs, a commitment to redirect investments to green
entrepreneurship and innovation. Knowledge of nature,
species and ecosystems is used as a measure and model for
humanitys greatest challenges. Indigenous and traditional
knowledge, womens access to education, governance and
decision making, and a successful balance in North-South
and developed-developing perspectives are the forums for
pursuing these goals: each shows clearly that human systems
esteem diversity as a form of wisdom.
How did this happen? Perhaps things had to get worse before
they got better. Perhaps each problem that the financial, social,
and ecological debt crises presented had a positive outcome.
Ironically, the lynchpin in this transition was an element
that had previously been all but overlooked in international
governance. A generation of young people emerged, by nature
more comfortable with visioning, social networking and truthtelling than its elders. The resulting intergenerational contract,
building on momentum already present in society supported
a generation of problem-solvers who had never learned
values and behaviours that undermined planetary life-support
systems, and who could envision solutions and success
previously unforeseen.
Achieving these outcomes was the result of a major global
effort that began at the 2012 World Summit in Rio.
sustainable development strategy, related human well-being

objectives are addressed, where appropriate, under each theme.
In the selection process, care was taken to ensure that targets
properly address the desired state of the global environment and
basic human needs.
At this point, it is also important to note that internationally
agreed goals and targets are, by definition, a result of political
compromise. They take into account scientifically established
thresholds to a varying degree, but they may not be fully in
agreement with them, particularly as scientific understanding
of where such thresholds may lie is also evolving. Therefore,
in some cases, selected targets only include a qualitative
description of the objective, without further specification, either
because of lack of data or because there is still divergence
over quantifiable targets. For the climate change problem, for
instance, what level of global mean temperature increase is seen
as dangerous and therefore must be avoided according to the
qualitative objective agreed in the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is highly debated. Yet,
the risks associated with temperature rise are clear, and some
425
Table 16.1 Goals and targets on the road to 2050

Themes
Goals
Targets
Atmosphere
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC 1992) Article 2
Cancun Agreements (UNFCCC 2010) Article 1
Paragraph 4
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution (CLRTAP 1979) Article 2
Prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference
with the climate system
Stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions at a level that would hold the increase in
global average temperature below 2C above pre-industrial levels
Reduce and prevent air

pollution
Limiting the concentration of pollutants (such as PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, CO,
Pb) in line with WHO guidelines
Improve access to reliable,

affordable, economically viable
and environmentally sound
energy supplies
Achieve universal access to modern energy supplies by 2030
Conservation and sustainable

use of land
Reduce salinization, combat desertification, reduce cropland expansion and

prevent soil pollution and degradation
World Health Organization guidelines

(WHO 2006)
(WSSD 2002) Paragraph 9a
Energy for a Sustainable Future (AGECC 2010)
Land
FAO World Food Summit Plan of Action
(FAO 1996) Paragraph 33g
FAO World Food Summit Plan of Action (FAO 1996) Sustain forest cover
Paragraph 33g
Reduce the deforestation rate and expand forest areas
Agenda 21 (UNCED 1992b) Chapter 11.12a

UN Millennium Declaration (UN 2000) MDG 1
Target 1c
Eradicate hunger
Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from
hunger, and eradicate hunger by 2050
Sustain water resources,

protect water quality and
aquatic ecosystems
Intensify water pollution prevention to reduce health hazards and protect

ecosystems
Universal provisioning of safe

drinking water and improved
sanitation
Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to

safe drinking water and basic sanitation and ensure full access by 2050
Improve the status of

biodiversity by safeguarding
ecosystems, species and
genetic diversity and promote
its sustainable use and fair and
equitable benefit sharing
By 2020, at least halve and where feasible bring close to zero the rate of loss of
all natural habitats, including forests, and significantly reduce degradation and
fragmentation
Protect and preserve the

marine environment
Promote conservation and sustainable use of the coastal and marine

ecosystems as well as their natural resources
Water
(WSSD 2002) Paragraph 25d
UN Millennium Declaration (UN 2000) Paragraph
23
UN Millennium Declaration (UN 2000) MDG 7
Target 7c
Stop the unsustainable exploitation of water resources by developing water

management strategies at the regional, national and local levels, which promote
both equitable access and adequate supplies
Biodiversity
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) Aichi
Biodiversity Targets (CBD 2010)
Target 5
CBD Aichi Biodiversity Targets (CBD 2010a)

Target 12
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS 1982) Article 192
By 2020, prevent the extinction of known threatened species, and improve and
sustain their conservation status, particularly of those most in decline
Jakarta Mandate (1995)

FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries
(FAO 1995) Paragraph 6.2
Promote the maintenance of the quality, diversity and availability of fishery resources
in sufficient quantities for present and future generations
Chemicals and waste

Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic
Pollutants (2009)
426
Reduce chemical pollution to

protect human health and the
environment
By 2020, use and produce chemicals in ways that lead to the minimization of
significant adverse effects on human health and the environment
Protect human health and the environment from persistent organic pollutants
Rotterdam Convention on Certain Hazardous

Chemicals in International Trade (Rotterdam
Convention 1998) Article 1
Monitor and control the trade in Promote shared responsibility in the international trade of certain hazardous
chemicals in order to protect human health and the environment from potential
certain hazardous chemicals
harm and to contribute to their environmentally sound use

Minimize the amount of waste

and promote reuse and
recycling
Prevent and minimize waste and maximize reuse, recycling and use of
environmentally friendly alternative materials
are becoming more acute, so preventative and precautionary

action is necessary as a form of sustainability insurance (UNFCCC
2010). Strengthening the long-term globally agreed target on
the basis of the best available scientific knowledge, rather than
of political consensus, is still an issue under consideration at
UNFCCC meetings. Overall, the targets are based on the latest
multilateral agreements associated with the goals that inspire
and guide humanity towards a specific destination.
PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY

GOALS
This section examines the existing literature on quantitative

scenarios to outline how sustainability targets might be met.
The chapter looks at the scenarios used in earlier assessments
and published in the scientific literature and summarizes the
findings for the conventional world projections, scenarios that
describe the consequences of continuing current policies,
and compares them to sustainable world projections, those
that aim to reach the long-term targets envisioned above. The
purpose of this comparison is to assess the gap between these
different pathways and to discuss how it might be closed. The
two scenario categories have some general characteristics.
Conventional world scenarios typically extrapolate historical
trends, assuming no new policy direction, also described in
the literature as business-as-usual. They also usually assume a
continuing increase in the use of material goods and services,
driven by the same market dynamics dominant in the world
today. These scenarios thus tend to ignore the risks associated
with environmental degradation and resource scarcity.
Sustainable world scenarios, in contrast, explore the changes
required if sustainable development goals are to be met. Clearly,
this category includes a wide range of scenarios based on the use
of advanced technologies, increased efficiency and/or lifestyle
changes. In some cases new calculations have been performed to

respond to gaps in the literature.
Drivers
Population and income

The global population is projected to grow to 810.5 billion
people by 2050 (Figure 16.4), and even to as many as 15 billion
by 2100 (UNDESA 2011; Lutz et al. 2008). By far the largest share
of population growth is expected in countries that are currently
low-income, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa, Northern Africa and
West Asia, and South Asia. Generally, low population scenarios
are more likely to lead to lower environmental pressure than
high ones, although high population scenarios that result in low
emissions can also be found in the literature (van Vuuren et al.
2012). Still, the importance of population growth in the context
of sustainability targets has been recognized at the highest UN
level (ICPD 1994). Investing in womens education is one of the
most effective methods of reducing population growth, as women
with higher levels of education have fewer children. Scenario
analysis by Lutz and Samir (2011) shows a global population
ranging from 8.9 to 10.0 billion people in 2050 as a result of a
high or low education scenario alone.
Nearly all scenarios project a further increase in GDP as an
indicator of economic development, although there is variation
between scenarios, with global average per-person growth rates
ranging between 1.2 and 2.2 per cent annually (Figure 16.4).
The relationship between income and environmental change
is ambiguous. On the one hand, high income tends to coincide
with high consumption levels, leading to further environmental
degradation. On the other, an increase in income can also
coincide with lower population levels, an increasing appreciation
of a clean environment and rapid technological change. These
Figure 16.4 Population and income projections in the scenario literature, 20002050
Population, billion
Income, 2000 US$ per person
12
20 000
10
16 000
12 000
6
8 000
4 000
2
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Note: The shaded areas indicate the 1090th percentile literature range.
2050
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: (GDP) van Vuuren et al. 2012; (population) UNDESA 2009
427
growth paradigm for example (WCED 1987), while others

highlight trade-offs and the correlation between consumption
rates and the flow of material goods, as in the steady-state
economy paradigm (Czech and Daly 2004; Daly 1974, 1971).
The difference depends on factors such as technological
development, macro-economic feedbacks and avoided
environmental damage (UNEP 2011b).
Consumption
Global average consumption levels have risen significantly
during recent decades, outpacing simultaneous improvements in
efficiency. Increases in both the number and size of cars have been
much greater than improvements in fuel efficiency, leading to a rapid
increase in overall transport fuel consumption (Girod et al. 2012). In
fact, efficiency improvement itself may induce higher consumption
levels by decreasing the cost of consumption the rebound effect.
Changing consumption patterns could form an important part of
a sustainable development strategy as it often leads to multiple
benefits and brings environmental concerns closer to consumers.
Historically, however, campaigns aimed at changing consumption
patterns have not always been successful. The effectiveness of
changes in consumption can be illustrated by scenario studies on
dietary change, discussed below in the section on land.
A young girl receiving training in trade in the Kapisa Province of

Afghanistan, where the vast majority of primary and secondary
students are boys. Eskinder Debebe/UN Photo
trends may lead to a decrease in environmental pressure as

incomes rise, as observed, for instance, for local air pollution,
the so-called environmental Kuznets curve (Chapter 1) (van
Ruijven et al. 2008; Riahi et al. 2007; Smith 2005; Stern 2003).
This effect has, however, not been observed for many global
environmental problems, including carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions, and there have been reports of displacement effects
with production shifting to low-income countries underlying
some Kuznets observations (Luzzati and Orsini 2009). It is
important to note that it is not the level or rate of economic
growth that determines environmental impacts, but its structure.
For example, a focus on services rather than material goods
could reduce the pressure on natural resources. Consistent with
this scientific debate, no straightforward relationship between
income projections and achievement of sustainability targets
can be found in global scenarios (van Vuuren et al. 2012).
Some scholars emphasize the positive feedbacks between
economic growth and achieving sustainability goals, the green
428
There is increasing recognition of the importance of the

environment for human development and quality of life (World
Bank 2008; UNEP 2007; MA 2005b). Currently, an estimated
24 per cent of the global disease burden and 23 per cent of all
deaths can be attributed to environmental factors (Prss-stn
and Corvaln 2006). For child mortality, in particular, low levels
of food intake, unsafe drinking water, a lack of basic sanitation
and the use of solid fuels for cooking and heating are important
drivers (Black et al. 2010). Analysis shows that, despite some
progress, in conventional world scenarios, full access to sufficient
food, water, and energy will not be reached for many countries in
South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, or even 2050 (World
Bank/IMF 2011; Hilderink et al. 2009).
Atmosphere
Conventional world scenarios

Almost all scenarios that assume no major policy changes expect
energy consumption to continue to grow worldwide. On average,
they project energy consumption to increase by a factor of three
over the 21st century, with a range of 2.55.5 (van Vuuren et al.
2012; Clarke et al. 2010; Fisher et al. 2007). Moreover, such
conventional world scenarios project fossil fuels to retain a large
market share as their price, especially for coal, is expected to
be lower than that of alternative fuels. Despite the domination
of fossil fuels, however, most scenarios project a significant
increase in non-fossil energy production, including biomass,
solar, wind and other renewables, as well as nuclear.
The projections also indicate that by 2030 nearly 3 billion
people, mostly in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia,
will still rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating,
while about 1 billion people will have no access to electricity
(GEA 2011; IEA et al. 2010). Conventional world scenarios also
Figure 16.5 Emissions and temperature scenarios

Annual emissions of CO2-equivalent by sector,
billion tonnes
120
Land-use change
Agriculture
100
Process emissions
Energy
80
Residential
Transport
60
Industry
40
CO2 emissions,
billion tonnes
120
Conventional worlds
4
60
3
40
0
2050
80
20
2000
Conventional worlds
100
20
-20
Temperature increase relative to

pre-industrial levels, oC
6
-20
2000
Sustainable worlds
Sustainable worlds
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Note: Emission and temperature scenarios cover a longer time period than other scenarios in this chapter
because of inertia in the climate system. The shaded areas indicate the 10-90th percentile literature range.
consistently project high numbers of people suffering from

the health consequences of traditional fuel use, with around
1.5 million annual premature deaths resulting from indoor air
pollution in 2030 (IEA et al. 2010). The use of traditional fuels
in inefficient stoves can also have serious implications for
deforestation and local and regional air pollution (FAO 2006a;
IEA 2006; Arnold et al. 2003). It should be noted that fuelwood
use could actually increase in response to rising prices for
modern fuels (Easterling et al. 2007).
Increasing fossil fuel use implies increasing emissions of
greenhouse gases. On average, conventional world scenarios
project greenhouse gas emissions to more or less double in
the next 50 years (van Vuuren et al. 2012; PBL 2009; Fisher
et al. 2007). Scientific knowledge leaves little doubt that a
consequence of the increase will be a steady rise in global mean
temperature (Figure 16.5) (van Vuuren et al. 2008a, 2008b; IPCC
2007), of 35oC relative to pre-industrial levels by the end of the
century. There is considerable uncertainty regarding both climate
change and its impacts. The IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report
indicates that a warming of 4oC is likely to have negative effects
on agricultural yields in most parts of the world (Easterling et
al. 2007), with sensitive systems coral reefs, some mountain
ecosystems, polar sea ice and many of the worlds glaciers
likely to be lost and sea levels possibly rising by more than 1
metre by the end of the century. Moreover, there is a risk of
passing critical thresholds for the functioning of the Amazon
rainforest (IPCC 2007), as well as an increase in the frequency of
storms, droughts and other extreme weather events.
Historically, people have tended to invest more in the control of
air pollution as they become more affluent. Typically, emissions
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: van Vuuren et al. 2008a, 2008b; Fisher et al. 2007
increase in the early stages of development, but may diminish

as incomes rise. In conventional world scenarios, emissions are
usually shown to decrease slowly in the first decades of the 21st
century in high-income countries, but to increase in low-income
ones (van Ruijven et al. 2008). Globally, this results in a pattern
Figure 16.6 Scenarios for sulphur emissions

Sulphur emissions, million tonnes
100
Conventional worlds
75
50
Sustainable worlds
25
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Conventional world scenarios include those without climate policy;

sustainable world scenarios include those with stringent climate
policy. The blue line represents the scenario under current legislation.
Note: The shaded area indicates the 10-90th percentile literature range.
Source: Van Vuuren et al. 2008a; Cofala et al. 2007
429
of stable or slowly rising emissions beyond 2050 (Figure 16.6),

though some decrease would be expected over the longer term.
During most of the century, therefore, these scenarios suggest
that targets for health standards are unlikely to be met in many
parts of the world.
modern energy to all is small: the increase in CO2 emissions|from

fossil fuels could be around 1 per cent of global emissions in
2030 compared to a conventional world scenario, but this would
be compensated for by reduced fuelwood demand and thereby
reduced deforestation (GEA 2011; IEA et al. 2010).
Sustainable world scenarios

Several scenario studies assess the 2050 sustainability target
of providing universal access to modern energy (Table 16.1)
(GEA 2011; Pachuari et al. 2011; van Ruijven et al. 2012;
IEA 2010). Improving access to electricity requires accelerating
the pace of electrification in the least developed countries either
by grid expansion or by the development of decentralized minigrids or off-grid systems (AGECC 2010). For cooking, to increase
energy efficiency and decrease health impacts, the main strategy
is to promote the use of advanced-combustion biomass stoves
or to make a full transition to cleaner fuels (Venkataraman et al.
2010). Scenario analysis shows that such strategies could avoid
more than 1million premature deaths per year up to 2030 (GEA
2011). Estimates of the annual investments to implement such
strategies range from US$10 billion to 140 billion per year (GEA
2011; Bazilian et al. 2010; IEA et al. 2010). Scenario analysis
also suggests that the climate impact of ensuring access to
Based on current estimates of the uncertainty in climate

sensitivity, targets for greenhouse gas concentrations of
450parts per million (ppm) and 400 ppm CO2-equivalent
would ensure a median chance of 50 per cent and 70 per cent,
respectively, of staying below the UNFCCCs agreed limit of a 2oC
temperature increase (Table 16.1) (Meinshausen et al. 2006).
Sustainable world scenarios show that to reach such targets,
global greenhouse gas emissions would need to peak in just one
to two decades, then fall to around 50 per cent of current levels
by 2050, and by the end of century would need to reach zero or
even result in a net absorption which could, for instance, be
done by afforestation or by the combination of bio-energy and
carbon capture and storage (van Vuuren and Riahi 2011; UNEP
2010a). There are four basic ways to reduce emissions:
changing the structure of economic growth;
increasing energy efficiency through technology or lifestyle
changes;
Masdar City, under construction near Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, will rely entirely on solar and other renewable energy sources, with the
ambition of becoming the first zero-carbon, zero-waste city in the world. www.masdar.ae
430
changing energy supply including using zero-carbon energy

options; and
implementing end-of-pipe measures such as carbon capture
and storage.
Reaching the sustainable world emission reduction targets
(Table 16.1) requires a broad portfolio of measures. Figure 16.7
provides an indication of the size of the transition involved.
Very many scenarios show that a low-carbon economy can be
achieved with currently identifiable technologies, and they share
a number of common features (Clarke et al. 2010; ECF 2010;
Fisher et al. 2007; van Vuuren et al. 2007).
Energy efficiency improvement is a robust option under all
scenarios.
Energy generation provides very significant emission
reduction potential by introducing combinations of renewable
energy, nuclear power and/or carbon capture and storage,
although each of these has limitations and drawbacks.
Indeed, the centralized energy sector could even achieve net
negative emissions if it were based on bio-energy use with
carbon capture and storage.
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions such as
methane, nitrous oxide, and black carbon and ozone
precursors could contribute significantly to mitigating
climate change at relatively low cost, for example by reducing
methane emissions from energy production and some of the
methane emissions from livestock and rice cultivation.
Lifestyle changes are not often explicitly accounted for in
scenarios, but may achieve considerable reductions such as
in transport or food consumption.
The use of bio-energy is very common in low-emission
scenarios (van Vuuren et al. 2010). Bio-energy production
may, however, have serious consequences for biodiversity,

food production and greenhouse gas emissions (Dornburg
et al. 2010; Searchinger et al. 2008; Bringezu et al. 2009;
Fargione et al. 2008), so needs to be carefully monitored
and the available potential used as efficiently as possible.
Moreover, it would be important to focus the use of bioenergy on sectors where it would provide the greatest benefit.
Access to modern energy sources can be improved by grid,
mini-grid or off-grid expansion, fuel subsidies and grants, or
micro-loans for stoves.
Although air quality could be significantly improved in lowincome countries through the rapid introduction of state-of-theart technologies, it should be noted that air pollutant emissions
are also strongly influenced by structural changes in the energy
sector. In addition to the importance of pollutants such as
methane and black carbon for climate change, the fact that
they also negatively affect health and crop growth (via groundlevel ozone) might be a much more important trigger for their
reduction than climate change alone. The sustainable world
scenarios show that stringent climate policies and existing air
pollution control measures could significantly reduce emissions.
The adoption of such strategies could be successful in achieving
World Health Organization (WHO) air pollution targets, and their
combined benefit would be delivered at much lower costs than
the sum of separate strategies to meet climate and air pollution
goals (UNEP 2011a; GEA 2011; Bollen 2008).
There are several possible consequences to the movement
towards a low-carbon society. Some of these are co-benefits,
for instance for greenhouse gases and air pollution, or emission
reductions and improved energy security. There are some trade-
Figure 16.7 An example of primary energy use and annual change in CO2 emissions in sustainable world scenarios
Energy consumption, exajoules
Annual change in emissions, %
1 000
800
Low carbon
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Conventional worlds
3
2
1
600
0
-1
400
-2
200
0
-3
Sustainable worlds
-4
2000
2025
2050
1970 1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 2040
2050
The category Low carbon refers to renewable energy, nuclear power and fossil fuels in combination with carbon capture and storage
and eciency, and illustrates the level of transition required. Dierent models and studies suggest dierent combinations.
Source: PBL 2009
431
offs as well. For instance, the reduction in aerosol emissions that

results from measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will
initially partly offset the climate benefits from current aerosol
cooling effects. An important trade-off concerns bio-energy,
but other technologies also have side effects. Hydropower
infrastructure can have several impacts, such as loss of
agricultural land, replacement of settlements, biodiversity loss
and ongoing greenhouse gas emission episodes from water
bodies (Fearnside 2011; St. Louis et al. 2000). Wind turbines
regularly face opposition from local communities and carbon
capture and storage (once it can be applied on a large scale)
may entail risks of CO2 release. Climate policy will also interact
with forestry management, which could lead to both positive and
negative impacts on biodiversity.
Land

A wide range of models, from economic to biophysical, has been
used to explore future trends in land use (Smith et al. 2010).
All the studies project a strong increase in the demand for food
up to 2050, driven by a rising population and dietary change
spurred by economic growth. Between 2000 and 2050, global
cereal demand is projected to increase by 7075 per cent while
meat consumption is expected to double (Thornton 2010; IAASTD
2009a; FAO 2006b). Meeting these needs, while avoiding a large
expansion of agricultural land and protecting biodiversity, will be
a major challenge. Ensuring food security will also be an issue
as world food markets are likely to be influenced by increasing
resource scarcity. A key mitigating factor will be continued

investments in yield growth and intensification on existing
cultivated land (FAO 2011; UNEP 2011b; Rosegrant et al. 2009).
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical,
social and economic access to enough safe and nutritious food to
meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and
healthy life (FAO 1996). Looking at per-person food availability
in the conventional world scenarios, by 2050 average calorie
availability per person per day will be around 30003500
calories, but projected food availability in sub-Saharan Africa is
much lower, in the range of 21003350 calories. Environmental
degradation, lack of investment and competition for land are
expected to push world food prices upwards, causing additional
stress to the poor, especially in urban areas (OECD/FAO 2011;
IAASTD 2009a). In other words, the conventional world scenarios
suggest that it is very unlikely that malnutrition will be fully
eradicated by 2050 without major policy shifts (IAASTD 2009a;
UNEP 2007; FAO 2006b; MA 2005a). The prevalence of child
malnutrition for 2050 in developing countries is projected to
range between 13 per cent and 25 per cent (Figure 16.8; Box
16.2). The highest levels of undernourishment are projected in
countries that currently suffer from hunger, have high population
growth rates and poor prospects for rapid economic growth, and
possess limited agricultural resources (FAO 2006b).
Population growth and dietary change have contributed to a
rising demand for agricultural products. In the past four decades,
Tea plantation in Limuru, Kenya. The overall productivity of Kenyas tea plantations is considered among the highest in the world. Jason Jabbour
432
Figure 16.8 Food consumption and child undernourishment under different scenarios
Calories available, per person per day
Children under five malnourished, %
6 000
30
5 000
25
4 000
20
Conventional worlds
IAASTD
15
GEO-5
Sustainable worlds
10
IAASTD
GEO-5
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2000
2050
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Note: Scenarios selected from GEO-4, the IAASTD study and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment are those that most reflect the sustainable
and conventional worlds on the basis of storyline or quantitative elaboration. The shaded area shows the range in the literature.
GEO-5 results as discussed in box 16.2.
Source: Hughes et al. 2011; IAASTD 2009a; UNEP 2007; FAO 2006b; MA 2005a
around 78 per cent of the global increase in agricultural supply

has been achieved through increases in yield and greater
efficiency in the supply chain; a further 7 per cent has come from
increased cropping intensity; while a mere 15 per cent has come
from expansion of the arable area (Smith et al. 2010; Bruinsma
2003). At the regional level, however, large differences can be
seen. In sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, only 34 per cent of
the rise in output was derived from yield increases, and the
remaining 66 per cent came from area expansion (Mery et al.
2010; Smith et al. 2010). These factors are expected to continue
to be important in the future, although trends will differ over time
and across regions.
different: while a considerable expansion of arable land

is expected in Africa, Asia and Latin America, this is
compensated for by a decrease in harvested area in Europe,
North America and the Former Soviet Union (van Vuuren
et al. 2008b; UNEP 2007). As land degradation (CBD 2010b)
is typically not accounted for in scenario analysis, the real
impacts could be worse.
Figure 16.9 Trends in land use, 19702050

Million km2
Yield growth has slowed over the last several decades

(FAOSTAT 2012). Moreover, environmental pressures, including
the effects of climate change and ground-level ozone, could
also have a negative impact on yields in the future. IPCC
estimates of the potential global impact of climate change on
crops, although uncertain, suggest that if no adaptation occurs
climate change could have a substantial negative impact on
yields, of 1035 per cent at all latitudes for crops like maize
and wheat. Adaptation measures could, in aggregate, ward off
negative impacts in temperate regions, but could not avoid an
average yield reduction of around 10 per cent in tropical zones
(Easterling et al. 2007).
When focusing on crop production, scenarios show some
variation in terms of expected land use (Figure 16.9) (Smith
et al. 2010). The 2050 projections for cropland increase range
from as low as 6 per cent, through an average increase of
around 1020 per cent (van Vuuren et al. 2008b) to more than
30 per cent as suggested by the IPCCs A2 scenario, which is
based on high population growth. Regional results can be very
100
80
IMAGE
(based on FAO)
IAASTD
60
Natural area
Pasture
Cropland
40
20
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Note: Shaded area indicates 1090th percentile literature range

Source: Rose et al. 2012; Hurtt et al. 2011; Smith et al. 2010;
IAASTD 2009a; OECD 2008a; UNEP 2007; FAO 2006; MA 2005a
433
For animal products, existing scenarios indicate that most of the

increases in global livestock production will occur in developing
countries (Bouwman et al. 2005). In grazing systems, strong
growth is expected for confined livestock production systems,
while most studies show an increase of 10 per cent or less in
pasture areas.

Given the strong connection between agricultural production and
the ecosystem services that provide food, forage, fibre, energy
and biodiversity, achieving sustainable development as it affects
agriculture and land resources requires an integrated approach
(Smith et al. 2010). Such an integrated approach would take into
Box 16.2 Integrated simulation of the 2050 targets for climate, food and land
Can very high investments in agriculture and water productivity
help to achieve the sustainability objectives discussed earlier
in this chapter? Here, this question is explored using the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) IMPACT
model (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural
Commodities and Trade) (Nelson et al. 2010; Rosegrant et
al. 2008). Previous analyses have shown the importance of
economic development in reducing hunger and malnutrition
(Nelson et al. 2010).
Compared to a conventional world scenario, economic growth
in developing countries is assumed to be higher and population
growth to be lower overall (Nelson et al. 2010). Additional
investments in agricultural research and development will
lead to rapid increases in agricultural production: as a result,
by 2030, grain yields are 15 per cent greater than in the
corresponding conventional world scenario and by 2050, they
are 35 per cent greater. Furthermore, livestock numbers are up by
30 per cent. It is also assumed that the UNFCCCs agreed limit of a
2oC temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels has been
achieved, and that there is full access to safe drinking water by
2050, and that all girls have access to secondary schooling by
2030. Finally, the water efficiency improvements suggested by
the sustainable water withdrawal scenarios are also included
(with the exception of a constant irrigated area) (Box 16.3).
The changes outlined above result in average cereal prices

being respectively 21 per cent and 39 per cent lower by 2030
and 2050 compared to the conventional world scenario.
Under the conventional world scenario, the global harvested
crop area is expected to grow at 0.23 per cent per year or
169 million hectares for 20052050, with contractions in
some OECD countries and Asia more than offset by increases
in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. In the sustainable
world scenario, on the other hand, crop area contracts by 116
million hectares by 2030 and by 201 million hectares by 2050.
The lower food prices suggested by the sustainable world
scenario are expected to boost affordability and thus access
to food, increasing daily calorie availability in the developing
world by 496 kilocalories by 2030 and 1336 kilocalories
by 2050. As a result, about 50 million children would be
malnourished, a fall of 66 million or 57 per cent. The model
calculations, however, also show that eradicating hunger
in 2050 is a complex, multifaceted challenge: importantly,
significant steps can be made through changes in investment
and policies. Key factors that can make a difference for
childhood malnutrition include increasing the availability
of food, access to safe drinking water and increased female
secondary school enrolment. Moreover, mitigation of and
adaptation to climate change will make a positive difference
for agricultural production.
Table 16.2 Selected indicators for the conventional and sustainable world scenarios
Area-weighted grain prices,

US$ per tonne
Total crop harvested area, thousand
hectares
Developing country calorie availability,
per person per day
Malnourished children worldwide, million
Proportion of children malnourished in
India, %
2005
2030
conventional
worlds
2050
conventional
worlds
2030
sustainable
worlds
2050
sustainable
worlds
150
202
253
160
154
1520811
1684798
1689758
1569207
1489230
2637
2717
2823
3213
4159
153
136
115
78
50
46
41
39
30.7
27.4
Source: New calculations IMPACT model; Nelson et al. 2010; Rosegrant et al. 2008
434
account the relationship between competing demands for limited

land resources and the environmental impact on agricultural
production (UNEP 2010b).
One key to ensuring future access to food is investment in
agricultural research to improve productivity (Rosegrant et al.
2009). Another is to reduce food wastage and loss currently
around 1040 per cent of agricultural production is wasted
(Parfitt et al. 2010). Through lifestyle changes, technological
development and investment in infrastructure, it is possible to
significantly remedy this wastage (Jger and Cornell 2011; Parfitt
et al. 2010). Alterations in peoples diets could also help reduce
the need for additional production. Scenario studies have looked
into the consequences of reducing consumption of livestock
products through substitution of vegetable alternatives. Different
results have been published on the land consequences of such
dietary changes. Some studies suggest considerable reductions
in land-use (Ten Brink et al. 2010; Stehfest et al. 2009), while
others highlight the risk of a rebound effect, with reduced meat
consumption in developed countries leading to increased meat
and cereal consumption in the rest of the world (Rosegrant et al.
1999). There is also some discussion of the health implication of
low-meat diets: although studies claim benefits in high-income
countries from reducing overconsumption of meat, low-meat
diets need to be well designed.
Very few projections can be found that actually result in food
security for all by 2050. According to the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO 2009), however,
it could be accomplished if global food supplies expand
by about 70 per cent above current levels. The conditions
under which this could be achieved include political stability,
good governance, food security strategies, integration of
world markets and strong economic growth, all on the basis
of an increase in agricultural production in Africa, Asia and
Latin America. This implies ensuring that agricultural trade
liberalization integration of world markets does not lead to
negative impacts on vulnerable communities (Jger and Cornell
2011). The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge,
Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD 2009a)
includes a scenario with increased investments in agricultural
technology combined with increased investment in water
infrastructure and female secondary education. This scenario
shows a significant increase in food availability but still leaves
8 per cent of children malnourished, mostly in sub-Saharan
Africa. Clearly, access to food needs to be viewed in the context
of poverty reduction both to promote rural development and to
provide direct and immediate access to food for the most needy
(Broca 2002).
Figure 16.9 shows that some scenarios lead to little expansion
and even contraction of the agricultural area. One contributing
factor is reduced rates of population growth leading to
smaller increases in the demand for food. If historical yield
growth rates can be maintained, the global agricultural area
could be stabilized or even reduced. Indeed, the analyses by
IAASTD (2009a) and Thornton (2010) show that it is possible
to increase yields significantly on the basis of better use of

agricultural knowledge, science and technology although this
will be far from easy. Policies that lead to higher agricultural
yields need to be combined with policies that reduce or avoid
soil degradation and other negative environmental trends
such as the loss of crop resilience to pests (Killham 2010;
Petermann et al. 2008; Kaiser et al. 2007; Paulitz et al. 2002).
Finally, it is also necessary to effectively and fairly define
property rights and develop local institutions that foster
longer-term investment in the use of water, soil and biological
resources in agriculture and forestry (FAO 2011; Von Braun and
Meinzen-Dick 2009; Hazell and Wood 2008). The crop yields
in the sustainable world scenarios also benefit from reduced
climate change impacts. The IPCC assessment indicates that
the combination of agricultural adaptation and an increase
in temperature of less than 2oC above pre-industrial levels
may even result, in aggregate, in positive impacts on globally
averaged yields (Easterling et al. 2007).
Policy options that could improve sustainable agricultural
production include:
supporting investments in increasing crop yields in
developing countries to limit the expansion of agricultural
land and to close the yield gap between developed and
developing countries;
promoting adaptation to climate change by encouraging
crops and crop varieties that are more resilient under
changing climatic conditions;
investing in infrastructure, food processing and storage
techniques to reduce food waste;
better utilizing urban-rural landscapes for food systems and
natural resource use;
reducing consumption of livestock products; and
strengthening land-use policies and planning by promoting
integrated land and resource management.
While it is technically possible to achieve zero expansion of
agricultural area and still produce sufficient or more food,
implementing this presents a large number of challenges. Key
among these are the continuing degradation of land and water,
climate change and the rising demand for biofuels
(FAO 2009). For example, the current trend of increasing
emissions and water pollution from nitrogen fertilizers is
expected to increase by 2050, despite potential for greater
efficiency in fertilizer use (Power 2010; Bruinsma 2003).
Furthermore, the predicted growth in animal production in
developing countries will lead to more methane and nitrous
oxide emissions from manure, although the projected
improvement in husbandry will somewhat reduce emissions
per animal (Smeets et al. 2009; Bouwman et al. 2006). While
climate change mitigation is designed to reduce negative
climate impacts, in specific regions such as the Russian
Federation, such policy will result in forestalling potentially
positive yield changes. Furthermore, improvements will
also depend on potential trade-offs between allocations of
agricultural land for crops or for biofuels, which could further
threaten food production and security.
435
Water

Chapter 4 shows that many regions are seriously affected by
an imbalance between the availability and withdrawal of water,
water stress and water pollution from different sources. River
systems are considered the most endangered ecosystems
on the planet and their loss of biodiversity has been faster
over the past 30 years than in any other terrestrial or marine
ecosystem (Jenkins and Lowe 2003). The Johannesburg Plan
of Implementation (WSSD 2002) Paragraph 26c calls not
only for an efficient and well-balanced use of freshwater
resources but also for the safeguarding of drinking water
quality. Important drivers of water scarcity include population
growth, increasing water consumption, pollution and climate
change. Increasing water use, river and reservoir regulation,
or non-treated return flows lead to alterations in flow regimes
that contribute to intensified and complex conflicts between
ecosystem requirements and the management of rivers for
human water supply and energy generation. Climate change
can affect freshwater problems in many ways through changes
in precipitation, discharge rates, extreme events, reduced
dilution capacity of rivers and salinization due to sea level rise
(Schneider et al. 2011; Bates et al. 2008).
Several scenario assessments exist, showing large variations
in projected water withdrawals the total volume of water
extracted from surface or groundwater sources for various
uses based on different assumptions on such factors as
population, consumption patterns and technology availability
(Figure 16.10). Most of the estimates of water withdrawals
indicate a large global net increase, but with significant regional
differences. The most important factor for this increase is the
growth of household water use, followed by industrial and

agricultural use (Alcamo et al. 2007). As a result of increasing
withdrawals, effluent returns are also likely to increase, many
of which remain untreated in low-income regions. For the
GEO-4 markets first scenario, for instance, the volume of
untreated wastewater was reported to steadily increase despite
improvement in treatment. In the GEO-4 sustainability first
scenario, in contrast, the volume of untreated wastewater fell
as a result of an overall decrease in wastewater due to greater
efficiency (UNEP 2007). The GEO-5 calculations are discussed in
more detail in Box 16.3.
Increases in water withdrawals are projected to lead to an
increase in water stress (Arnell et al. 2011; Alcamo et al.
2007, 2003; Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000; Vrsmarty et
al. 2000). More than 2 billion people currently live in severely
water-stressed areas, primarily in Asia (Figure 16.12). Model
simulations show that under the conventional world scenarios,
the number of people living in water-stressed areas, as well as
the extent of these areas, is expected to rise substantially due to
population growth, increased use of water and climate change.
The ratio of future to current numbers is given in Figure 16.12,
which also demonstrates the uncertainty in the scenarios as a
result of different assumptions about climate and other global
change. Increases are highest in Africa, where the number of
people living in severe water-stressed areas is expected to grow
fourfold (median). In South America and Asia significant changes
may also occur. In many river basins under severe water stress,
there will be competition between domestic, industrial and
agricultural users. It should be noted that changes in the use and
natural condition of water somewhere in a river catchment area
will affect the availability and quality of water downstream.
Figure 16.10 Water withdrawals under different

scenarios, 20002050
Withdrawals, km3
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2000
Conventional worlds
GEO-4
OECD
MA
GEO-5
2010
2020
Sustainable worlds
GEO-4
OECD
MA
GEO-5
2030
2040
2050
Note: The shaded area shows the range in the literature.

Source: Bakkes et al. 2008; OECD 2008a; UNEP 2007; Alcamo et al. 2005b; MA 2005a
436
A woman on her way to the water distribution site in Tora, Northern

Darfur. The closest water source is more than an hours walk from
the village. Olivier Chassot/UN Photo
Currently nearly 1 billion people lack access to clean drinking

water and 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitation services
(WHO/UNICEF 2010). In 2004, unsafe water and inadequate
sanitation were responsible for around 1.6 million deaths and
6.3 per cent of worldwide disability adjusted life-years (DALYs),
mainly due to diarrhoea (WHO/UNICEF 2010). Scenario analysis
suggests that by 2015, 627 million people will still live without
access to clean drinking water and 2.7 billion people will live
without access to improved sanitation. Different studies project
long-term developments in drinking water and sanitation, either
by assuming a continuation of the 19902000 improvement
rates (Prss-stn et al. 2004) or by using cross-sectional
relationships with socio-economic indicators (OECD 2012;
Hughes et al. 2011). These studies project that the proportion

of the worlds population without access to safe drinking water
will diminish from 23 per cent in 2000 to 35 per cent in 2050.
For sanitation, the proportion will diminish from 51 per cent in
2000 to 1518 per cent in 2050. This would lead to a significant
reduction in the numbers of children suffering from related ill
health (OECD 2012; Hughes et al. 2011).
The goal for water is to reduce global water stress. Several
scenarios have explored the scope for achieving this, such as
the technogarden scenario from the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (Alcamo et al. 2005b), and three alternative
Box 16.3 The sustainable world scenario for water withdrawals

Simulations were carried out to calculate future water
availability, water withdrawals (Figures 16.10 and 16.11) and
water stress (Figure 16.12) under conventional and sustainable
world scenario conditions, assuming the same socio-economic
development. In these calculations, for the sustainable world
scenario the following assumptions were made:
stringent efficiency measures are taken in industry and
residential water use;
the irrigation area remains constant;
climate policies lead to a reduced demand for thermal
cooling in power generation as fossil-fuel-powered plants
are partly replaced by renewable energy sources; and
the climate patterns were assumed to be consistent
with limiting global temperature rise to 2oC above preindustrial levels.
As a result, global water withdrawals after 2015 are projected

to decrease substantially compared to the conventional
world scenario (Figure 16.11). Nevertheless, regions affected
by severe water stress still exist and the number of people
living in river basins suffering from water stress could reach
3.9 billion in 2050 (Figure 16.12). An important lesson is
that improvements in efficiency of water use are necessary
to reduce water withdrawals, but are insufficient to avoid
water scarcity. The core issue is the amount of water used for
irrigation and the high concentration of water demand in urban
areas. In other words, if water scarcity is to be reduced further,
fundamental changes in agricultural practices are needed
improving irrigation efficiency, shifting irrigated areas from
water-scarce to water-rich basins, moving from irrigated crops
to rain-fed crops, or relying on imports from other regions.
Figure 16.11 Water withdrawals under conventional world and sustainable world scenarios, 20052050
Conventional world withdrawals, km2
Sustainable world withdrawals, km2
6 000
6 000
5 000
5 000
4 000
4 000
3 000
3 000
2 000
2 000
1 000
1 000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Irrigation
Livestock
Manufacturing
Energy
Domestic
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: New calculations for GEO-5; WaterGap model from Alcamo et al. 2003 and Flrke and Alcamo 2004
437
Figure 16.12 Water stress under current conditions

and for 2050 under conventional and sustainable
world scenarios
Current conditions (19611990)
People under water stress, billion
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Africa
Asia
Australia
Europe
North
South
America America
Europe
North
South
America America
Europe
North
South
America America
Conventional worlds 2050
Ratio of scenario to current conditions

8
2
1 = current
conditions
Africa
Asia
Australia
Sustainable worlds 2050
Ratio of scenario to current conditions

8
2
1 = current
conditions
Africa
Asia
Australia
Note: By using a Box-Whisker plot the five-number-summary can be depicted, i.e. the minimum,
lower quartile, median, upper quartile, and the maximum are presented in the same graph. The
uncertainty ranges expressed in the plot represent dierent model runs categorized as baseline
and challenge scenarios by two global hydrological/water models taking into account dierent
conditions.
Source: Arnell et al. 2011; Alcamo et al. 2007, 2005b; UNEP 2007
438
transition scenarios developed by the WBCSD (WBCSD 2006).

The main measure, increased efficiency, is discussed in Box
16.3. In general, the sustainable world scenarios lead to lower
numbers of people living with severe water stress, mostly as a
result of a reduction in water withdrawals due to behavioural and
technological change. However, even under sustainable world
scenario assumptions, some regions experience a doubling
(median) in the number of people living with water stress
compared with current conditions (Figure 16.12). Nevertheless,
due to regional population growth and spatial variation of
climate change impacts, an increase in water stress is apparent
compared to current conditions. This implies that competition
between water-related sectors would still be important.
The OECDs Environmental Outlook to 2050 (OECD 2012)
assesses the costs and benefits of halving the number of people
without access to safe drinking water by 2030 compared to
2005 levels, and of full access by 2050. The study indicates
that, to reach such goals, significant infrastructure investments
and operation and maintenance resources would be needed.
The average required was estimated at US$1.8 billion globally
between 2010 and 2030, and US$7.6 billion between 2031 and
2050. The improved access to drinking water and sanitation
would also lead to other major benefits: Hutton and Haller
(2004) estimate that every dollar spent on drinking water and
sanitation creates economic returns of US$1234, depending on
the region and the technology. Three-quarters of these benefits
stem from decreased collection time, particularly for women
and especially when water is piped to premises, while the
other benefits are mostly linked to a reduction in water-borne
disease and death, such as from diarrhoea. The OECD (2012)
projects total avoided deaths of around 90000 per year in 2050.
Possible policy levers to improve access to safe drinking water
and reduce water stress include:
investing in research, development and training to increase
irrigation efficiency;
controlling the extent of irrigated areas;
using waste water and desalinated water to conserve
freshwater resources;
reusing water in manufacturing industries;
investing in devices and processes for reusing grey water
(wastewater from domestic activities);
investing in education to raise awareness of the need to
save water and the link between unsafe drinking water and
disease;
investing in infrastructure for accessing safe water and for
collecting and purifying waste water;
reducing the use of cooling water in the generation of
electricity; and
developing adaptation and mitigation policies to reduce
climate change impacts.
As agriculture is the largest user of water worldwide, water stress
and food security are strongly interrelated. Lack of sufficient
water, possibly caused by alternative water use, can limit food
production; at the same time, water consumption for agricultural
production could limit residential and industrial water supply.
These relationships further emphasize the need for integrated

resource planning at the level of water basins.
Terrestrial biodiversity

Different scenario studies and assessments have considered
biodiversity loss (CBD 2010b, 2006; UNEP 2007; van Vuuren et
al. 2006; MA 2005a; Sala et al. 2000), including information on
extinction rates, changes in forest cover and changes in species
abundance and distribution (Leadley et al. 2010). An important
element of future biodiversity loss is land-use change (Figure
16.13), with particularly important trends including the loss of
mangroves, wetlands and tropical forests (CBD 2010b). Scenarios
indicate a further decline of tropical forests, while the area of
temperate forests is likely to expand. Another factor affecting
biodiversity is natural asset exploitation: an increasing population
with rising affluence in the conventional world scenarios implies,
for example, greater demand for forest and tree products.
Currently, most timber products are extracted from natural forests,
while plantations provide some 35 per cent of harvested wood
(Sohngen et al. 2001). The increased timber demand is expected
to lead to a further expansion of managed forest in tropical zones,
at the expense of unmanaged forests (Gibson et al. 2011).
Projections of extinction rates vary widely between studies.
Those based on species/area relationships lead to relatively
high extinction rates, whereas species distribution models that
allow for migration generate much lower rates. However, all

estimates of future extinction rates are considerably higher than
is considered sustainable. Conservative estimates of future rates
of extinction expect them to be similar to the currently high rates
(Pereira et al. 2010).
It has been shown that the expansion of agricultural land could
be avoided by increasing crop yields combined with policies to
reduce food waste, control biofuel use, conserve resources and
shift diets (Figure 16.14) (Ten Brink et al. 2010; Stehfest et al.
2009; Wise et al. 2009). Analysis has also shown that the 2020
target to prevent the extinction of known threatened species
could be achieved by a well chosen network of protected areas
in combination with reduced habitat loss (Butchart et al. 2012;
Ricketts et al. 2005). In a recent study, a combination of policy
options including the expansion of protected areas into a
well-chosen network covering 29 per cent of the worlds surface,
an increase in agricultural productivity and reduced postharvest losses, dietary change, improved forest management,
and climate mitigation suggested a significant restoration
of natural areas and reduced biodiversity loss (Ten Brink et al.
2010). A great impact on land-use change could also be achieved
through financial mechanisms: Wise et al. (2009) demonstrated
that a policy that provided equal monetary incentives to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions to all emission sources, including
land use, could lead to the preservation of both managed and
Figure 16.13 Changes in the extent of forest up to 2050 in different global scenarios, and estimated rates of
species loss
Upper and lower forest area projections,
million km2
Extinctions per million species years,

logarithmic scale
60
100 000
99.99
10 000
50
63
Plants and
animals
1 000
40
30
10
0
1990
Mammals,
birds and
amphibians
10
1
IPCC AR5
MA
GEO-4
GBO-2
Lizards 10
Plants
100
20
Extinctions per century, %
0.10 Mammals
Birds
Plants
Birds
Climate change
Land-use change
Combined drivers
0.01
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
Fossil 20th
record century
(documented)
21st century (scenarios)
The graph oers a comparison of extinction rates in the distant and recent past, with projections of species committed to extinction during the 21st century
according to dierent global scenarios. The extinction rate caused by each driver and the total extinction rates are dierentiated when possible.
Note: For 20th-century extinctions, mammals fall into the upper bound, and birds and amphibians into the lower bound.
Source: CBD 2010b; Pereira et al. 2010a
439
Figure 16.14 Options for reducing biodiversity loss by 2050

Avoided loss of mean species abundance
Avoided loss of natural area
Expanding protected areas by 20%

Reducing deforestation
Closing the yield gap
Reducing post-harvest losses
Changing to healthy diets
Improving forest management, high ambition
Mitigating climate change without bio-energy
0
10
15
20
25
% of mean species abundance

Note: Mean species abundance is the average relative to the original state.
unmanaged forest. Other measures that could also be considered

include agroforestry and the certification of sustainable wood
products (Angelsen 2010).
A critical threat to biodiversity is rising demand for agricultural
land leading to conversion of natural habitats, whereas a
substantial increase in yields reduces the demand for land
and is considered necessary to reduce habitat loss. This may,
however, cause a decline in the biodiversity and ecosystem
services of farmlands (Robinson and Sutherland 2002;
Tilman et al. 2002) but an increase in biodiversity across the
landscape (Phalan et al. 2011). An expansion of protected
areas may increase competition for land, decreasing the
potential for agricultural production, which could in turn lead
to higher food prices.
30
35
40
-2
0
2
Million km2
10
12
Source: Ten Brink et al. 2010
management (Worm et al. 2009), the majority of the worlds

fisheries are operating with severe overcapacity (Anticamara et al.
2011) resulting in significant economic losses (Arnason et al.
2009; Srinivasan et al. 2012). Global assessments for exploited
marine invertebrates indicate similar trends (Purcell et al. 2011).
Overexploitation has already depleted fishery yields, reduced
Aquatic biodiversity

Conventional world projections of changes in the biodiversity
of aquatic ecosystems are scarce; however, pressures are
expected to remain high as a result of increasing water scarcity,
climate change, pollution and exploitation (CBD 2010b; Rands
et al. 2010). For freshwater systems, organic pollution and
dam construction are important threats. For marine systems,
destructive and intensive fisheries and ocean acidification are
among the main factors that could reduce biodiversity
(Halpern et al. 2008; Pinnegar et al. 2006; Pauly et al. 2003).
Ocean acidification may transform coral reefs into systems
dominated by other species, and will cause major disruptions
in marine food webs, especially in the Southern Ocean (McNeil
and Matear 2008).
About 32 per cent of wild marine fish populations are classified
as collapsed, depleted or recovering (FAO 2010), and while
there has been some rebuilding in areas with strong fisheries
440
Certain marine fish populations have been depleted to such an extent

that they may not be able to recover. J Tamelander/IUCN
the abundance of large fish and caused local extinctions.

Analysis indicates that global wild fish catches will decrease
in the future unless fishing effort and catch rates are reduced
to sustainable levels (Figure 16.15). Projections also show that
if current trends persist, the populations of medium and larger
fish in the worlds oceans will continue to decrease while small
fish may increase in abundance due to release from predation
(Ten Brink et al. 2010; Pauly et al. 2003).
Reducing fishing effort, even to the level of maximum sustainable
yields for all fish populations, could make an important
difference for a sustainable world. It would require a stringent
reduction, but only temporarily while larger- and medium-sized
fish populations recover (Ten Brink et al. 2010; Pauly et al. 2003).
After this period, fishing could return to a level that can be
sustained in the long run.
Increasing the protected area of land and sea would reduce
the availability of suitable land and fishing grounds for food
production. Increasing protection will only therefore be effective
if it is done in combination with more efficient production
methods on the land under cultivation and the establishment of
sustainable fisheries. It should also be noted that reduced fishing
effort initially leads to reduced fish landings. This implies that
while populations rebuild, demand for wild-caught fish needs to
be replaced by demand for aquaculture which itself has specific
environmental impacts or crop and animal products. As fish
populations rebuild, the supply of fish would, however, grow to a
long-term sustainable level that is comparable to the peak 1980s
catch levels (Ten Brink et al. 2010; Pauly et al. 2003).
Synthesis: gaps and sustainability pathways
The review of conventional world and sustainable world

scenarios in relation to the strategic goals discussed earlier in
the chapter illustrates that continuing on the current trajectory
would lead to major environmental damage and a serious loss
of ecosystem services by 2050. It would also leave many people
without sustainable access to food, water and energy. In contrast,
the sustainable world scenarios show how societies could
meet some of the 2050 targets or, at least, join a trajectory that
would make meeting such targets more feasible. The changes
suggested in the sustainable world scenarios include all kinds
of measures related to greater technological implementation,
changes in consumption patterns and improved management.
In general, major shifts from current trends are required for
each specific issue. It should be noted that, due to inertia in the
human-environment system, several targets still imply significant
environmental change, such as the target to limit temperature
increase to 2oC above pre-industrial levels. Sustainable world
scenarios, as well as requiring mitigating measures, call for
measures to cope with or adapt to these adverse effects.
Table 16.3 presents an overview of the key measures suggested
in the thematic sections of GEO-5, including changes in
consumption and production levels and patterns. On the
production side, changes include improving efficiency and
using fewer inputs; input switching and producing with low- or
non-polluting inputs; end-of-pipe measures; and integrated
production systems. On the consumption side, changes consist
of alterations in lifestyle, such as dietary shifts and greater use
of public transport. A focus on education, including awareness
raising, investment in infrastructure and the creation or
Figure 16.15 Marine catches with and without a reduction in fishing effort, by region, 19502050
Conventional worlds, with fishing eort maintained
Sustainable worlds, with fishing eort reduced
100
100
Million tonnes
Million tonnes
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
Indian Ocean
Mediterranean
and Black Sea
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Source: Ten Brink et al. 2010
441
strengthening of markets, and adaptation to unmitigated change

are other measures included in the sustainable world scenarios.
Measures can also be related to the layers of transformation
in Figure 16.2: while many measures address the outer layer,

others deal with the mid or even deep layers, such as changes in
behaviour, mainly the result of education and awareness raising.
Table 16.3 Overview of the gap between the conventional and sustainable world scenarios and important
measures to close the gap
Theme
Gap between the conventional and

sustainable world scenarios
Examples of important measures to close the gap
Atmosphere
and energy
By 2050 greenhouse gas emissions have

increased by 70% compared to now, while
the vision requires a 50% reduction
Reduce carbon intensity by 45% per year compared to a baseline increase

of 2% per year, partly by increasing the contribution of non-carbon energy
options to more than 50% and by significantly increasing energy efficiency
By 2030 1 billion people live without access

to electricity and nearly 3 billion rely on
traditional biomass for cooking and heating
Air pollution levels are still above WHO
guidelines in most developing countries
Increase investment in electrification

Create a smart subsidy and micro-financing system to provide modern fuels
for cooking and heating to the poorest
Promote less energy-intensive lifestyles and material consumption
Increase investment in research and development
Use technology to reduce air pollution
Land and food
By 2050 1325% of all children are

undernourished
Increase crop yields and overall agricultural productivity by, for example,
closing the yield gap in developing countries
By 2050 cropland has increased by 1020%

compared to 2010
Encourage planting crops and crop varieties that are better suited under
changing climatic conditions
By 2050 pasture area has increased by 10%

compared to 2010
Reduce food waste

Improve use of urban-rural landscapes for food systems and natural
resources
Strengthen land-use policies and planning
Make appropriate social, technological and economic investments in
infrastructure and regulate agriculture, including increasing efficiency of
irrigation, nutrient recycling and pest management
Reduce consumption of livestock products
Water
In 2050 6.5 billion people live in areas under

water stress
By 2030 58% of the population live without
safe drinking water
By 2030 1728% of the population live
without improved sanitation
Invest in research, development and training to increase irrigation efficiency

Control the extent of irrigated areas
Use wastewater and desalinated water to save freshwater resources
Invest in education to raise commitment and awareness for water saving
Invest in infrastructure for safe drinking water and wastewater treatment
Reduce cooling water needs with new technologies
Increase reuse of water in manufacturing industries; invest in devices and
processes for reusing grey water
Mitigation policies to prevent climate change impacts
Adaptation measures for climate change such as rainwater harvesting, flood
control for rivers and water transfer
Terrestrial and aquatic

biodiversity
By 2050 forest area has further decreased

compared to 2010
Extinction rates are clearly above fossil
record rates
Global fish are exploited above sustainable
levels
442
Conserve key terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

Reduce the pressure on land, mainly through the options under the land
theme
Reduce global fishing effort
Improve forest management
Box 16.4 Integrated global analysis of sustainability scenarios

The scenario assessments address gaps and sustainability
pathways by theme, as well as the potential trade-offs and
co-benefits with the other themes. It is, however, important
to further analyse the links between themes in an integrated
manner. Here, the global Threshold 21 (T21) model (Bassi et
al. 2010) is used to address how to achieve the goals set out
in Table 16.1 by focusing on the investments needed and the
trade-offs and synergies of the interventions across various
sectors. Two alternative sustainable world scenarios to 2050 are
compared to a conventional world scenario. Scenario A focuses
entirely on additional investments in transforming technology
and production to achieve the goals. Scenario B focuses on how
adding lifestyle change reduces those investments.
Scenario A shows that investments of about 2 per cent of
GDP between 2011 and 2050 will make the necessary shift to
sustainable development. The interventions include efforts to
reduce energy demand in buildings, industry and transport (38 per
cent of investments); shifting to more renewable energy sources
(31 per cent); increasing food production through ecological
agricultural practices (10 per cent); rebuilding fishery stocks (8
per cent); and sustainable management of forests (3 per cent)
and water (10 per cent). Thus, achieving the climate goal emerges
as requiring the highest investment. The measures in the energy
and agriculture sector reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level
that limits atmospheric concentrations below 450 ppm. In T21,
managingnatural resources more sustainably also helps restore
keynatural resources or greatly mitigate their depletion (Table
16.4). Scenario B shows that lifestyle changes that reduce demand

for energy, including for transport, heating and cooling, water and
biomass, will reduce the need for investments in production and
technology to about 1.2 per cent of GDP. It should be noted that
the costs of the lifestyle changes are not accounted for and will at
least involve the costs of transmission of information.
In both scenarios, the synergies from the additional investments
focused on environmental sustainability and on reducing
the stress that natural resource depletion puts on economic
productivity. Overall, the macro-economic results of the T21
model show that investing to reach the sustainability goals
creates more jobs than a conventional world scenario and
leads to higher GDP growth. The shift to greener investment will
lead to slightly lower growth rates in initial years, as is usual
for transition investments, but A and B scenarios GDP will
pass business-as-usual projections well before 2030 (UNEP
2011c). This is a significant, but uncertain, result as some
other models show negative GDP impacts, depending on the
assumed cost of fossil fuels and renewable alternatives, the
impacts of environmental change and responses to increases in
investments (Bassi and Eaton 2011; Clarke et al. 2010; Fisher
et al. 2007). Taking account of the cross-sectoral impacts of an
integrated approach, such as synergies between agriculture
and forestry, enables further understanding of the complexity
underlying mutual socio-economic and environmental
dependence and the need for coordinated programmes and
investments to achieve the GEO-5 goals.
Table 16.4 Threshold 21 scenario results for key indicators

2011
Conventional
worlds
Conventional
worlds
2050
Sustainable
worlds A
Sustainable
worlds B
Real GDP, US$ billion per year
69363
155192
190428
181762
GDP, US$ per person per year
9996
17472
21166
20217
3712
2133
Economic sector
Additional investment, US$ billion per year

Social sector
Total population, billion
Calories per person per day
Population below US$2 per day, %
Human Development Index
Total employment, million people
7.0
2787
19.5
0.60
3186
8.9
2981
11.1
0.67
4624
9.0
3348
9.0
3234
8.9
9.4
0.71
0.70
4689
4612
Environmental sector
Forest area, billion hectares
Waste generation, million tonnes per year
Ratio of footprint to biocapacity
Primary energy demand, million tonnes of oil-equivalent per year
3.9
11242
1.5
12956
3.7
13855
2.1
19733
4.5
14497
1.1
13421
4.5
14338
1.2
12470
Renewable energy share of primary demand, %
13
13
27
26
Fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions, billion tonnes per year
32.1
52.0
18.9
20.6
443
There are important synergies between the different goals.

For example, reduced climate change would improve water
availability and crop yields as well as relieve pressure on
biodiversity. Decreased consumption of food, water and fossil
fuels would reduce the mitigation requirements to achieve
the biodiversity, water stress and climate change objectives,
while increased agricultural yields would lessen the pressure
on biodiversity. In some cases, however, options for a specific
theme may induce important trade-offs with other themes.
Policies that combat environmental degradation may have
impacts on human development, and vice versa: creating bioreserves, for example, may increase land and food prices, while
desalinating water would significantly increase the demand
for energy. Ignoring such cross-sectoral links might jeopardize
the success of the sustainability transition effort and lead
to significant delays in reaching the targets. Strategies must
therefore go beyond theme-oriented conventional thinking and
take a broader systemic view that reflects these links. Central
to this is how the measures introduced for the different themes
would work together. Box 16.4 describes an example of an
analysis in which integrated scenarios are explored. This shows
that it is indeed possible to identify pathways that would meet
multiple sustainable development targets.
ADVANCING SUSTAINABILITY
Given the massive gap between conventional and sustainable

worlds in 2050, it is clear that inertia is a principal obstacle in
the form of dominant unsustainable processes, structures and
habits. Moving off the current path will require a transformation
without precedent in human history (Steffen et al. 2005;

Takcs-Snta 2004). Guiding changes of such magnitude
and complexity will require time and patience to facilitate a
sometimes steady, sometimes fitful, transition process. During
this process, structures and underlying mental models need
to be evaluated some phased out and others energetically
phased in. These underlying models should be consistent with
the desired trajectory for targets relating to atmosphere and
climate, land, water and biodiversity, resource efficiency and
waste management. The changes must effectively transform
societys material metabolism, especially those elements and
dynamics currently locking countries into trajectories that
are not the ones they would prefer. The changes needed to
realize sustainable world trajectories have to be diverse and
should combine demographic, technological, governance and
investment measures, along with lifestyle changes resulting
from shifting mindsets towards dematerialized values. They
also need to provide sufficient leverage to break the inertia of
unsustainable trends.
Diversity is key to understanding the structure and function of
complex adaptive systems and enhancing their resilience to
stress (Innes et al. 2005). A diversity of potential responses is
required because effective interventions must be sensitive to
socio-cultural and environment-development contexts. Diversity
also helps strengthen resilience and provides a form of insurance
if some of the responses fail, as many have over the last few
decades with regard to biodiversity, climate and other key
environmental issues (Speth 2005).
Ecuador, one of the UN-REDD programmes partner countries, is prioritizing social and environmental co-benefits in its REDD+ readiness preparations.
Elena Kalistratova/iStock
444
Grounding responses in local processes and experience not only

builds diversity, it can also tap into knowledge that has evolved
in direct connection with a particular environment. This section
focuses on the sub-global level, where countries, communities
or other entities, when addressing environmental problems from
the perspective of a particular place, self-organize their response
mechanisms. The self-organizing potential of communities,
businesses, civil society and other actors can be strengthened
by building networks, by matching the scale of governance to the
scale of the ecosystem in question, and by promoting innovation
and action (Berkes et al. 2003).
Paying attention to how response measures interact with, support
or constrain each other is difficult but increasingly important. The
significance of this in the case of ecosystem services has been
recognized and may involve the reduction of one to enhance
another, for example sacrificing the potential value of mining to
optimize a forests carbon sequestration or biodiversity value
or vice versa (Rodrguez et al. 2006). At the same time, a diversity
of measures offers increased opportunities for finding synergies
and supporting measures that produce multiple benefits (UNEP
2011b), such as the carbon sequestration and biodiversity cobenefits of forest conservation.
While responses at the sub-global level are likely to be diverse
and grounded in local conditions, it is important to identify some
common strategic elements for advancing sustainability. This
section discusses four strategic elements:
compelling visions and social contracts;
reversing the unsustainable;
leverage points; and
adaptive management and governance.
Such strategic elements inform and guide the development and
implementation of specific policy measures under the widest
range of geographic and thematic conditions, across all scales
from the local to the national and regional. In some cases
they also apply at the global level, with implications for the
international priority responses discussed in Chapter 17.
Social consensus around compelling visions of

sustainability
Initiating and managing the transition towards internationally

agreed goals and targets requires setting well-defined
directions through a clearly articulated vision. Governments
and other organizations at all levels should develop the
capacity to engage society in expressing cohesive visions
of an environmentally sustainable future around which new
social consensus in the form of deliberately agreed social
contracts, sectoral and thematic strategies and policies can
be developed and implemented.
Based on the experience of public- and private-sector
organizations, developing visions of an environmentally
sustainable future is an effective mechanism for achieving
progress in a desired direction (Costanza 2000). The generation
of shared visions is not only an essential element, but also
an underrated element of environmental strategic policy

development and management (Meadows 1996). Current public
institutions often have limited capacity to construct legitimate
and credible visions relying on stakeholders inputs (Walker et
al. 2006). This has also been recognized by the Global Survey
on Sustainable Lifestyles, which concluded that the missing
links between global environmental challenges and individual
action are pragmatic, holistic and compelling visions of what
sustainable societies could look like (UNEP 2011c).
In the absence of a clear, coherent vision that reflects the links
between social, economic and environmental issues, policies
may lead to disadvantageous trade-offs, often sacrificing
environmental or social goals in the face of more quantifiable
economic objectives. The result is often addressing one
sustainability problem while passing the true cost to another
sector, community, region or even another generation, creating
even more persistent and complex risks in the long term
(Loorbach and Rotmans 2005).
Visioning is important both for exploring the broader implications
of the effort needed for simultaneously meeting internationally
agreed global goals and targets, and for discussing
environmental futures from strategic sub-global points of view
under different economic, social and ecological conditions.
The power of visions to provide direction, navigate pathways,
recognize solutions and explore uncertainty has been recognized
and illustrated by the growing number of sub-global efforts
that involve articulating a vision or outlook for the future. Some
prominent examples follow.
Regional projection of options for resource efficiency
improvements. UNEP and regional partners prepared an
outlook to explore how resource efficiency improvements
can help maintain ecosystem health and contribute to the
provision of essential ecosystem services in the rapidly
industrializing economies of Asia and the Pacific (UNEP
2011b).
Scenario visioning at the state and city level. A combination
of qualitative visioning and quantitative modelling
methods, involving extensive participation, has been used
in Minnesota, United States. The purpose of the process
was to help regional leaders make strategic decisions about
sustainability, to identify related knowledge and research
gaps and to introduce systems thinking into policy making
and planning (Schmitt-Olabisi et al. 2010). An innovative
100-year vision has been developed for Panjim, the capital
of the Indian state of Goa and surrounding areas, around the
concept of RUrbanism, an integration of urban and rural
development in terms of resource use and the convergence of
human well-being (Revi et al. 2006).
Visions focused on solutions to specific environmental
problems. A vision has been developed to tackle the acute
water shortages in Kuwait (Al-Damkhi et al. 2009). Pathways
of possible emission reduction and low-carbon futures have
been developed for specific regions in Europe (Matthes et al.
2006) and cities in North America (Metro City of Vancouver
2011; Danish Architecture Centre 2011).
445
The development of visions involves creative tensions between

quantitative model-based projections and qualitative normative
articulation of what is desired for the future (Schmitt-Olabisi
et al. 2010; Patel et al. 2007; Strauss 1987). A vision refers to
a moving target, guiding the self-organizing and innovative
forces of a society forces that otherwise would remain diffuse.
A vision differs from a goal; it is a tangible image of a future that
is not subjected to the exact definitions involved in setting and
achieving goals (Jaeger et al. 2000).
When developing visions, it is essential to ensure integration
across policy themes to capture the intricately linked ecological,
social, economic, ethical and institutional dimensions of
sustainability problems, while reflecting on uncertainty
including surprise, critical thresholds and abrupt change, which
are inherent in non-linear natural and social systems such as
the Earth System (Swart et al. 2004). The visioning process
should also account for human decisions as a key conditioning
factor the constitution, reproduction and reformulation of
human needs, wants, vulnerabilities and values is essential for
illuminating consumption, social goals, institutional innovation,
social learning and the prospects for alternative futures
(Robinson 2004; Swart et al. 2004).
Participatory, integrated visioning processes are most useful
when they are iterative, support policy development and
adaptation, and are embedded in institutional cultures with
adequate capacity to manage the process. Embedding elements
of a vision in institutions can take place through legal and
administrative means. However, creating and maintaining the
political will that makes such measures feasible requires more
as does recruiting society to adopt lifestyle changes included in
the sustainability scenarios elaborated above.
According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change,
formalizing the transition agenda to a low-carbon economy can
be achieved in the form of new social contracts (WBGU 2011).
The council argues that the need for such contracts is grounded
in the joint responsibility of states and their global communities
business, science, civil society and even individuals for
tackling threats to the stability of the Earth System, with changes
going beyond technical and bureaucratic reforms. Formulated
around positive visions of the future, a new form of interaction
between politics, society, the economy and science would need
to be defined to bring creativity, resources, capacity, legitimacy
and political will together in the interest of navigating the
transition and achieving tangible progress towards outcomes
consistent with such visions.
A social contract is a contract or agreement between people
to form a society that determines their moral and/or political
obligations. With Socrates being its earliest known proponent
in antiquity, the concept is almost as old as philosophy. Social
contracts can exist in different forms at different levels, and
can outline different obligations for specific stakeholders. For
example, a social contract for science would need to focus on
the commitment of the scientific community to systematically
446
apply its creativity to addressing the fundamental problems

of the Earth System and the publics interests therein
(Lubchenco 1998). But social contracts could take other forms
in other sectors. Standards with a focus on the sustainability
of products and processes in sectors such as forestry or
agriculture have been proposed as a form of social contract,
with the state providing an overall operating framework but
with non-govenmental organizations, businesses and consumer
associations working out and codifying the details (Giovannucci
and Ponte 2005).
Social contracts would need to address both short-term and
long-term issues. The Stockholm Memorandum of Nobel
Prize Winners called for a dual-track approach: short-term
actions, emergency solutions to address the most pressing
environmental trends and their drivers within todays faulty
institutional framework; and long-term changes focused on
transforming the institutional framework itself, to create an
environment for innovation, learning and action without the
barriers of today. In the short term, they call for focus on
achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and
in the long run for a new agreement between developed and
developing countries to scale up the investment and capacity
building necessary to reach those goals (Royal Swedish
Academy of Sciences 2011).
Reversing the unsustainable
The transition towards internationally agreed sustainability

goals and targets requires not only introducing innovative new
measures and policies, but also the rapid phasing out of policies
and practices that reinforce vested interests that prevent the
transition from happening.
Learning what not to do is a necessary, yet often neglected,
precondition to framing the improvement of sustainability and, in
particular, to the integrated sustainable governance of complex
social-ecological systems. Understanding the constraints and
opportunities for bringing such framing into science, education
and policy debate while avoiding simple ideological discussions
is essential in advancing to a sustainable world (Tbara and
Pahl-Wostl 2007). However, phasing out existing policies and
practices is not always easy. Policies create dependencies,
and discontinuing a policy may hurt economic and other
vested interests and result in adjustments. Yet discontinuing
unsustainable policies and practices may also free up resources
and create new niches that innovative measures, consistent with
the sustainable world trajectory, can fill.
One important area for the phasing out of existing unsustainable
measures is counterproductive government subsidies. These are a
widespread phenomenon encouraging unsustainable activities in
sectors such as agriculture, energy and transport (van Beers and
van den Bergh 2009). A subsidy is a payment by a government
to an individual or firm, the intent of which, theoretically, is to
decrease the divergence between social costs and benefits to
internalize externalities (Myers and Kent 2001).
Subsidies can produce socially desirable outcomes, such as
provision of a public good that would be undersupplied by the

market. When properly designed and applied, they can also
provide investment to help green industry or technology startups become economically competitive (Bagstad et al. 2007).
However, not all subsidies help progress towards agreed goals
and targets. There are so-called perverse subsidies that
increase the divergence between private and social costs and
benefits (Myers and Kent 2001), typically by increasing the
size and pollution intensity of economic activities, and often
without clear, compensating social benefits but with economic
benefits channelled to a small minority of entrenched interests
in business-as-usual (van Beers and van den Bergh 2009, 2001).
Examples include:
agricultural subsidies that encourage the intensification of
production or the expansion of farmland at the expense of
natural ecosystems; without precautions, such measures
often lead to significant negative impacts on biodiversity and
habitats (Robin et al. 2003);
fossil fuel subsidies increase greenhouse gas emissions and
thus contribute to climate change; while these subsidies
are often designed to keep energy costs lower for the poor,
they typically end up benefiting medium- to high-income
households: in 2008, for example, the Indonesian Ministry
of Economic Affairs concluded that the top 40 per cent of
high-income families benefited from 70 per cent of the
subsidies, while the bottom 40 per cent of low-income
families from only 15 per cent of them (IISD GSI 2011;
IEA 2008);
subsidies for road transport, in which subsidized road
construction directly destroys habitat, and burning
subsidized fossil fuels in motor vehicles is a major
contributor to air pollution and climate change (Myers and
Kent 2001).
Discontinuing existing unsustainable practices may be a long
and uneasy process, but does lead to a shift to sustainable
behaviour. An example of reversing the unsustainable can be
observed in marine fisheries through the implementation of the
Wellington Convention signed in 1989, which prohibits fishing
with long driftnets in the South Pacific. This type of fishing is
destructive because of its non-selectiveness and the high level of
by-catch. Driftnet fishing was widely used, especially during the
1980s, and posed a threat to fish stocks, in particular to albacore
tuna. Although the convention initially created tension among
the distant-water fishing nations, it managed to balance the
economic interests of fisheries with the pressure on the marine
environment and led to the adoption of a global moratorium on
full driftnet fishing on the high seas (Techera 2011; Hewison
1993). The International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling
(ICRW), which originally aimed to prevent the oversupply of whale
products but turned into a key instrument of whale conservation
(Maffei 1997), can stand as another example. The governance
regime for whales has contributed to more sustainable
practices and a change in mindsets, allowing a transition from
predominantly consumptive exploitation of a natural resource
(whaling) to non-consumptive use such as whale watching and
related tourism.
Sustainability not only requires being aware of complexities

and uncertainties, but also developing normative patterns
of knowledge creation and collective behaviour that render
action possible (Mangalagiu et al. 2011). A transition to
sustainability demands profound changes in understanding,
interpretative frameworks and broader cultural values, just
as it requires transformations in the practices, institutions
and social structures that regulate and coordinate individual
behaviour. In this context, it is essential to get to the position
where people, industry and governments can easily distinguish
between objective facts and opinions that are presented as
facts to advance particular interests, and rely on the former to
make informed decisions. This is where education becomes
paramount, and involves raising awareness of the challenges
and solutions as well as harnessing and communicating
diverse knowledge.
A road penetrates a rainforest in the Chiriqui Highlands of Panama. The

growing networks of roads through tropical rainforest are of serious
environmental concern. Alfredo Maiquez
447
Reversing or phasing out unsustainable policies and practices is

essential. But it is only a first step that must be accompanied by
investment in investigating solutions that incorporate traditional
knowledge and novel forms of sustainability science as well as
engaging with broader civil society (Bckstrand 2003). Reversing
unsustainable practices must be accompanied by providing
society with knowledge and practices that are consistent with
management within planetary means.
Applying leverage
Achieving internationally agreed goals and targets will require

that policy makers look for advantageous places to intervene
and apply leverage through the design and implementation of a
diverse array of policies and instruments that:
facilitate a mindset shift to align with sustainability
principles;
change the rules and incentives to advance sustainable
practices; and
create feedback and make adjustments to keep
environmental pressures in check.
The comparison of conventional and sustainable world
scenarios brings into focus the challenge at hand: an urgent
need for a societal system-wide shift in the way energy is
generated and used, in consumption patterns, and in natural
resource management to quickly adjust the pathway towards
sustainability in the context of an unstable global economy
and present underachievement of most of the MDGs. In short,
there is neither time nor money to waste. However, the crisis of
sustainability may help increase awareness and understanding
of the problem, its underlying causes and the relationship
between them, and create momentum. Future policy efforts must
be as efficient and effective as humanly possible: by specifically
addressing the deeply embedded underlying drivers and
targeting and coordinating progress towards long-term change.
Progress toward deep transformation will not be rapid, but
evidence of change and progress at levels less deeply embedded
in the system will help create the conditions that support
and assist deep level change. What is emphasized here is the
importance of constructing a diversified portfolio of policy
intervention at levels that are fairly easy to access and influence,
in conjunction with other interventions which involve deeper
analysis, coordination and structural change.
Three layers of transformation were introduced in Figure 16.2
where leverage points might be found, providing practical
guidance for policy makers in managing the sustainability
transition. Reflecting on the presence or absence of intervention
at each of these leverage points can help broaden and diversify
policy emphasis, leading to a more resilient and responsive
overall strategy. Several examples follow, beginning with those
that are at the core of the sustainability transition.
Shift mindsets
At the core of the sustainability transition lie critical reflection and
changes in the mindsets and goals that determine how issues
448
themselves are framed. Mindsets in this respect refers both to

those held by individuals and to those shared mindsets that
define how social groups, cultures, nations or the human species
at large approach things. Recognizing the importance of mindsets
in the sustainability transition allows an opportunity to reflect
and examine underlying assumptions, identify shared values and
cultivate common ground. Each of these contributes to defining
the shared goals and the compelling visions necessary to bring
these changes about. Consider the following examples:
Youth education for sustainable development. Introducing
the principles of sustainability at an early and formative
age in primary and secondary school supports the power of
complex problem solving and can instil the belief that change
is possible and preferable, and that a sustainable world is
indeed achievable. The United Nations Decade of Education
for Sustainable Development (UNESCO 2011) is an example
of a global response meant to facilitate national and subnational efforts in this regard. Policy interventions that help
schools integrate sustainability into curriculums have the
potential to change mindsets.
Social marketing. While the world is replete with
advertisements for products and services, there is a dearth of
public messaging to promote the principles of sustainability
and non-material aspects of well-being such as health,
leisure or time with friends and family. Changes in the rules
and ethics of advertising and marketing that match the
audience-reach of product and service advertising, but that
communicate critical behavioural change for a sustainable
future such as water and energy conservation or the use of
green products have the potential to change mindsets.
Beyond GDP. Nobel prize-winning economists Joseph
Stiglitz and Amartya Sen were commissioned by President
Nicholas Sarkozy of France to examine the measurement of
economic performance and social progress. The Stiglitz-Sen
Commission called for a shift in emphasis from measuring
economic production to measuring peoples well-being and
the sustainability of that well-being (Stiglitz et al. 2009).
They stressed the importance of measuring such aspects
as the state of health, education, personal activities,
environmental conditions, social connections and political
voice, as well as insecurity, inequalities and proximity to
dangerous levels of environmental damage. An example of
the type of transformation that such a change in mindset
represents is Bhutans Gross National Happiness Index and
the national priority to focus on increasing happiness rather
than merely focusing on perpetual GDP growth (Government
of Bhutan 2011).
Change the rules and incentives
Coordinating deep and enduring system change is neither a
single pathway nor a linear process. For example, the rules of
a system often arise from a change in mindset, but in turn help
support mindset shifts. At this level of system intervention the
emphasis is on getting the signals right. Because rules and
incentives can institute structural change, they represent the
game changers that can catalyse and retain a strong influence on
system behaviour over time.
The Rio Branco sawmill in the Brazilian Amazon, working under Forest Stewardship Council certification. Third-party forest certification systems are
being used as a way to promote sustainable practices and reduce the carbon footprint of products while improving market access for communitybased forest enterprises. Antoine Lorgnier
Policy instruments such as laws, taxes, subsidies and market

mechanisms can be directed to shift specific drivers that affect
the state of the environment, and the more influential the driver,
the more systemic the change can be. Some instruments that are
already in place in many jurisdictions, such as pollution charges,
can create direct incentives for the reduction of emissions.
Other measures, however, with potentially more far-reaching
impacts, may require and represent a deeper mind-shift. For
example, payment for ecosystem services schemes include a
suite of approaches that attempt to attach value to ecological
functions that are usually left out of cost-benefit calculations
and mainstream economic models, including direct public and
private payments (Milder et al. 2010). Payment for ecosystem
services has been advanced for example in Latin America and the
Caribbean (Wunder 2007), and China has implemented some of
the largest schemes in the world (ADB 2010).
Create feedback and make adjustments
Interventions aimed at less structurally embedded parts of a
system can contribute to the sustainability transition, especially
when they catalyse mass action. Interventions that strengthen
feedback are designed to deliver information to a place where
it wasnt going before and therefore causing people to behave
differently (Meadows 1999). Such feedback provides the
evidence base for the mitigation of environmental pressures.
Examples include:
Household water and energy metering. A digital household
meter for electricity and water consumption can have a
significant impact on individual behaviour. In Armenia, for

example, studies on water consumption soon after meter
installation revealed that on average water use decreased
three to four times (OECD 2008b).
Product labelling. Providing information such as the carbon
footprint of products, or forest or marine stewardship
certification, can influence consumer behaviour and lead
to transformation across sectors. For example, the Marine
Stewardship Council (MSC) provides certification standards
and requirements for sustainable seafood. As of 2011 there
were 133 MSC-certified fisheries representing almost 6 per
cent of the total wild fish catch (MSC 2011).
Community indicator systems. Communities that undertake
multi-stakeholder processes to identify priority aspects
of quality of life and indicators to track progress over
time, create important feedback loops that can influence
collaborative action and transformation in communities.
In a 2011 study (US-GAO 2011), the US Government
Accountability Office highlighted that community indicator
systems are a vehicle for encouraging civic engagement
both through the systems development process and
through action once the indicator system is in place; help
address community or national challenges by facilitating
collaboration of various parties inside and outside
of government; and provide solutions to long-term
challenges. One example from Nevadas Reno and Sparks
communities is Truckee Meadows Tomorrow, Quality of Life
Indicators (TMT 2011).
449
Adaptive governance
Recognizing that humanity is encroaching on critical planetary

boundaries, new modes of adaptive governance are needed
to initiate transition management and achieve internationally
agreed goals and targets.
This analysis has demonstrated that the transition path
towards a sustainable world scenario is feasible but requires
navigating a wide range of highly complex and interrelated issues
simultaneously. Contextually, societys pursuit of well-being
and the requisite use of natural resources is a complex adaptive
system, where different systems interact and adapt to one another,
giving rise to the emergent ability of both people and ecosystems
to self-organize in response to sudden shocks and more slowly
changing stresses (Liu et al. 2007). Such a system is never at
a standstill, but rather is in a constant process of incremental
adaptation, reconfiguration, modification, revision and re-ordering,
where long periods of stability or equilibrium are visited by short
periods of radical change (Grin et al. 2010; Loorbach 2007).
In such unpredictable settings, it is nearly impossible to create
a fail-proof blueprint or to formulate optimal policies. What is
required instead is an inclusive, learn-by-doing process with
careful monitoring of policy effects, and an ability to make critical
choices and improvements consistent with the trajectories
leading to established goals. Society has already experienced
the inadequacies of inflexible blueprint-style approaches and is
gaining both experience and insights into alternative strategies
and policies that are more adaptive and that help build resilience.
Resilience thinking puts three aspects of social-ecological systems
at the centre: resilience, adaptability and transformability.
Resilience refers to the capacity of a system such as a country
or an ecosystem to adapt to change, deal with surprise, and
retain its basic function and structure while remaining within
critical boundaries. Adaptability part of resilience represents
the capacity to adjust responses to changing external drivers
and internal processes, and thereby channel development along
the preferred trajectory in what is called a stability domain.
Transformability is the capacity to cross thresholds, enter new
development trajectories, abandon unsustainable actions and
chart better pathways to established targets (Folke et al. 2010).
There are different related approaches emerging that put
these concepts into practice, including adaptive management,
sustainability transition management, adaptive governance and
adaptive policy making. They each have common features as well
as different niches and scales in which they are relevant. The
adaptive management approach, pioneered in the 1980s and
1990s (Lee 1993; Holling 1978), offers practical and experiencebased guidance for the type of skilful navigation that would be
necessary for local and regional place-based natural resource
management efforts.
Recommendations for managing the transition to sustainability,
resilience thinking and intervening in complex adaptive systems all
provide governance-level insights (Grin et al. 2010; Loorbach 2007;
Berkes et al. 2003; Rihani 2002; Ruitenbeek and Cartier 2001;
450
Axelrod and Cohen 2000). In relation to the design and

implementation of adaptive policy instruments, there is also an
array of research and experience with practical applications to
draw from that embody many of the same principles as adaptive
management and managing sustainability transitions (Swanson et
al. 2010; Walker and Marchau 2003; Bankes 2002; Dewey 1927).
An example of what adaptive governance and policy-making
entail in relation to watershed management in India is shown
in Box 16.5. The range of research and experience cited in this
paragraph reveals a consistent set of critical functions for adaptive
governance and managing the transition to sustainability, here
largely adopting the terminology of Loorbach (2007):
Multi-actor deliberation and agenda building. Many
stakeholders influence societal change. Governance must,
therefore, be participatory to recognize advantageous
leverage points, the levers for change and the correct
direction to move them; to achieve coherent coalitions for
creating shared notions of goals and ambitions; and to
strengthen policy design and implementation.
Futures analysis and long-term collective goal setting.
Integrated and forward-looking assessments are critical tools
that inform ongoing processes of change by systematically
reflecting upon the future and developing shared notions of
future goals and targets.
Box 16.5 Indias National Watershed Development

Project for Rainfed Areas (NDWPRA) adaptive
governance and policy-making at the sub-national
level
The objectives of Indias NWDPRA project include:
sustainable enhancement of agricultural productivity and
production;
restoration of the ecological balance in degraded and
fragile rain-fed ecosystems by greening these areas
through an appropriate mix of trees, shrubs and grasses;
reduction in regional disparity between irrigated and
rain-fed areas; and
creation of sustained employment opportunities for the
rural poor.
In Maharashtra, the NDWPRA project launched in 1990/91
continued through Indias Ninth Five-Year Plan, when it was
considerably restructured. Greater emphasis was placed
on decentralization and community participation. In the
Tenth Five-Year Plan (20022007), the state of Maharashtra
continued to implement the scheme with a participatory
approach, extending it to 433 micro-watersheds across 33
districts, with a targeted treatment area of 203000 hectares.
The shift towards a decentralized approach contributed to
improvements in water-management and represents an
example of adaptive governance.
Source: Swanson and Bhadwal 2009
Enabling self-organization and networking. Creating

opportunities for cooperation and replicating successes,
ensuring that social capital remains intact, and guaranteeing
that members of the population are free and able to interact,
are all fundamental elements of building the capacity of
actors and policy itself to plan for and adapt to surprises.
Variation, experimentation and innovation. Diversity of
responses forms a common risk-management approach, and
continuous reflection and improvement helps to develop a
context in which innovation for desired change can thrive.
Reflexivity and adaptation. Systemic review of past, present
and future sustainability conditions and policy performance
through interaction and cooperation with a range of stakeholders
is critical for continuous improvement and social learning.
These critical functions of sustainability transition management and
adaptive governance, together with the other strategic elements
described earlier social consensus for achieving compelling
visions, discarding the unsustainable, and applying leverage
in policy making provide practical guidance for advancing
sustainability and achieving internationally agreed targets.
CONCLUSIONS
The envisioned sustainable world aims simultaneously to achieve

universal human well-being and environmental sustainability at
global, national, regional and local levels. The vision assumes
that, by 2050, all people have access to food, safe drinking
water, improved sanitation and modern sources of energy, all
within the ecological limits of the planet.
Without major course correction, however, continuing on the
current trajectory would lead, by 2050, to major environmental
damage, a serious loss of ecosystem services, depletion of
natural resources and many people left without sustainable
access to food, water or energy. As a consequence, most
internationally agreed goals and targets would be missed, some
by a wide margin, particularly those related to climate change,
biodiversity, water and food security.
The review of sustainable world scenarios suggests that
measures can be put in place to help achieve these targets and
reduce the risk of Earth System changes and negative impacts
on future human development. Measures at the mid layer of
transformation, such as rule changes, will not be enough to move
to a sustainable world pathway. Structural measures and stronger
policy action are needed to influence both production and
consumption patterns. Such changes should be both short- and
long-term, and combine technology, investment and governance
measures along with lifestyle modifications grounded in a
mindset shift towards sustainability and equity-based values.
A transformation of such complexity requires a gradual, but
steadily strengthening, transition process. During this, there
is a need to stop activities that pull the Earth System towards
unsustainability. At the same time, it is important to provide
resources, build capacity and create an enabling environment for
all in a way that is consistent with the vision of a sustainable world.
In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one

which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. Ilias Kordelakos
Such a transition requires a high degree of consensus and

coordination between societal actors with diverse interests
and working environments. As a first step, broad-based
social contracts, grounded in jointly developed visions of a
sustainable future, would be needed to focus peoples attention
on the future. To ensure coherence among all societal actors,
contextually sensitive transition pathways can be developed
and agreed as joint visions of the future that respect social
responsibility and ensure that the rest of society has sustainable
access to the resources necessary for well-being. Given that
systemic changes, both environmental and societal, are
often slow, long-term goals would help focus investment and
technological development, induce societal change and engage
other actors in society.
The transition process would necessarily be based on adaptive
management, since uncertainties play a key role in the problems
of the Earth System. A diversity of measures would provide better
insurance against wholesale failure on critical issues due either
to inherent uncertainties or inadequate implementation and
be mutually strengthening. Of course, strategies to achieve the
targets will necessarily differ between developed and developing
countries, and between regions, countries, and communities
within those categories. The momentum of green economy
initiatives to integrate environmental imperatives into major
sectors also needs to be sustained and turned into detailed
work on policy, innovation and practice. Reversing ecosystem
degradation while meeting the increasing demand for resources
may seem challenging, but policy measures that help achieve
environmental goals and targets also have the potential to
deliver benefits to human well-being.
All this requires political determination and strong governance.
Questions of how to do it and what kind of global responses and
institutions would be needed are discussed in Chapter 17.
451
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C H A P T E R
Melhi/iStock
Global Responses
17
Coordinating lead authors: Ivar Baste, Maria Ivanova and Bernice Lee
Lead authors: Satishkumar Belliethathan, Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, Joyeeta Gupta,
Peter M. Haas, Zerisenay Habtezion, Achim Halpaap, Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere,
Peter King, Marcel Kok, Marcus Lee and Trista Patterson
Contributing authors: Vivien Campal, Bradnee Chambers, Melissa Goodall (GEO Fellow),
Slobodan Milutinovic and Felix Preston (GEO Fellow)
Chapter coordinators: Matthew Billot and Nalini Sharma
457
Main Messages
Environmental degradation heightens risks
and reduces opportunities for the advancement
of human well-being, especially for poor and
vulnerable populations. Harmful environmental
changes are taking place in an increasingly
globalized, industrialized and interconnected world,
with a growing global population and unsustainable
production and consumption patterns. The
degradation of ecosystem services is narrowing
development opportunities and could threaten
future human well-being.
The prospect for improving human well-being
is dependent on the capacity of individuals,
institutions, countries and the global community
to respond to environmental change. Innovative
and transformative policies and technologies
could assist society to overcome current
barriers to achieving sustainable development.
A more balanced approach to addressing
environmental, economic and social concerns
could also help.
Even though national and regional responses
have begun to address environmental challenges,
a polycentric governance approach is needed to
attain effective, efficient and equitable outcomes.
This approach recognizes a diversity of settings and
assumes multiple centres of activity and authority,
which, given the range of capacity needs, are
critical to generate adequate responses to
environmental challenges.
458
458

Environmental responses are attracting greater

financial flows but these still fall short of the
resources needed. The Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development countries aid
commitments to the three UN conventions on
biodiversity, climate and desertification grew from
US$5.1billion in 1999 to US$17.4 billion in 2009.
The same countries allocated US$22.9 billion to
official development assistance for climate change
mitigation and adaptation in 2010. Yet, the cost for
developing countries to adapt to climate change
alone has been estimated at US$70US$100billion
a year for 20102050.
Global responses have a key role to play in
promoting coordination, integration and
systemic considerations. They can help set
goals and develop metrics, support capacity
enhancement, generate financial resources and
facilitate the sharing of best practices. At the
global level, a results-based approach to
advancing human well-being and environmental
sustainability could be anchored in the strategies
and associated response options that follow
below. The United Nations Conference on
Sustainable Development (Rio+20) provides an
opportunity to take stock, assess achievements
and shortcomings, and begin to stimulate
transformative global responses. The suggested
strategies are part of a systemic approach, which
could highlight barriers and inform adjustments,
learning and continuous improvement.
Global response options

Framing environmental goals in the context
of sustainable development, and monitoring
outcomes. A process could be initiated to
revisit and extend the Millennium Development
Goals in the form of sustainable development
goals centred on human well-being, with
measurable metrics, keeping in mind the need
for the coherent and balanced integration of
environmental, economic and social dimensions.
Enhancing the effectiveness of global
institutions. The sustainable development
agenda could be elevated and mainstreamed
into the core of decision making within the UN
system, supported by enhanced cooperation
with and between environmental, economic
and social institutions.
Investing in enhanced capacities for
addressing environmental change. Delivering
results will require strengthened national
capacities to develop, deliver and implement
strategies to combat environmental
degradation. A UN system-wide framework for
capacity building could strengthen the national
capacities required to implement specific
multilateral environmental agreements.
Supporting technological innovation and
development. Mechanisms from collaborative
research and development (R&D), knowledge

platforms and global prize funds for
environmentally sound technologies could
be scaled up to accelerate the innovation
and diffusion of technologies critical to the
transition to a global green economy.
Strengthening rights-based approaches
and access to environmental justice through
recognition, enforcement and implementation
in global and regional institutions. Principle
10 of the Rio Declaration on Environment
and Development recognizes the importance
of procedural environmental rights. For
the past 20 years regional experience has
demonstrated that such rights provide a basis
for citizens to participate in safeguarding
both human and environmental well-being.
Deepening and broadening stakeholder
engagement. The private sector and civil
society could be invited to explore the use
of new information and communications
technology to build a stakeholder web
to enhance access to information and
stakeholder engagement, and to mobilize new
partnerships. An intergenerational assembly
could provide an opportunity for future leaders
and sustainability champions to interact and
foster a joint vision for a sustainable future.
Global Responses
Global Responses
459
459
INTRODUCTION
Global environmental change such as climate change and the

degradation of ecosystem services is heightening risks and
reducing opportunities, especially for poor and vulnerable
populations. Such change is taking place in an increasingly
globalized, urbanized, interconnected and fast-moving world
amidst shifting geopolitical power balances. Burgeoning flows
of goods and services, capital and technology, information and
labour all fuel a growing global population with implications
for patterns of consumption and production. The scale and
persistence of global environmental problems require sustained
collective efforts to meet internationally agreed goals. Responses
at national and regional levels are already available, but
addressing the underlying drivers of global environmental
degradation, rather than the pressures or symptoms, would
require the sustained evolution of rules, institutions, economic
systems and values to transform the current approach to
environmental management. In addition, adequate and stable
financial resources, political commitment, knowledge and
operational capacity are also imperative. But these enabling
conditions and the requisite governance mechanisms and
structures vary considerably between regions and countries.
There is no single, overarching solution to environmental
challenges. Yet many environmental problems, particularly those
pertaining to the global commons, can only be addressed through
collective action. Global responses are also critical for enhancing
national capacity and facilitating the uptake of solutions among
nations with regional commonalities. Responses at national
and global levels interact and generate incremental, structural
and transformational change (Putnam 1988). The engagement
of non-state actors at different levels has, for example, fostered
knowledge exchange and strengthened capacities. Policy changes
adopted by individual governments can transmit normative

signals, exert peer pressure or encourage learning and replication
providing incentives for the collective adoption of international
norms, rules, laws or policies. In several areas climate,
biodiversity, chemicals global environmental treaties have set
new goals, standards and expectations for state performance.
The embodiment of these goals and standards in national laws,
regulations and action plans in turn induces member states to
comply. Global responses integrating a mix of strategies, values,
principles, investments and measures supported by a diverse
range of capacities can enable national and regional choices.
The capacity of the international community to deliver solutions
to environmental problems is a function of its ability to establish
and maintain flexible and holistic governance and management
frameworks at global and national levels. Ideally, frameworks
to accomplish these objectives should be based on clear and
measurable goals, verifiable strategies, and strong monitoring
and evaluation mechanisms. Adaptive governance is an emerging
approach for addressing multi-dimensional, ever-evolving
environmental and socio-economic challenges that exhibit a high
degree of uncertainty (Gunderson et al. 2010; Dietz et al. 2003);
and it facilitates decision making in complex systems under the
circumstances of abrupt, disorganizing or turbulent change (Folke
et al. 2005). In addition, trust building, involving stakeholder
participation and mechanisms for feedback, could help ensure
that change is both sustainable and equitable (Kydd 2005; LeviFaur 2005; Braithwaite and Drahos 2000).
Although results-based management is most commonly used to
manage internal organizational processes, it is a perspective that
also enhances transparency and accountability when focused
on international processes. Modified to reflect the global scale,
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addresses the opening high-level segment of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP16) in Cancn, Mexico, urging
governments to mobilize the highest level of political will, and to deliver progress towards an eventual international treaty. Paulo Filgueiras/UN Photo
460
a systematic and comprehensive results-based global approach

could be anchored in six response options:
framing environmental goals in the context of sustainable
development;
enhancing the effectiveness of global institutions;
investing in enhanced capacities for addressing
environmental change;
supporting technological innovation and development;
strengthening rights-based approaches and access to
environmental justice; and
deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement.
These strategies build on the lessons learned and opportunities
identified in GEO-5. Aligning goals and strategies within a common
vision lies at the basis of an integrated approach, which could
be instrumental in improving the effectiveness and efficiency
of responses at global, national and local levels. The following
section assesses the state of global responses to date and
highlights gaps and barriers that have hindered the collective
ability to manage environmental change. Proposals are then made
for results-based responses anchored in the many different centres
of governance for addressing global environmental challenges and
advancing human well-being.
STATE OF GLOBAL RESPONSES
Over the past 40 years a wide range of responses to

environmental problems has been implemented as a set of
interacting systems with multiple actors at different scales.
Conventional responses at national and global levels include
the creation of rules, laws and institutions, with international
organizations established to serve as conveners at the global
scale; as arbiters for exchange, sharing experiences, articulating
interests and aggregating preferences; as sources of expertise;
and as enablers of a broader social dialogue (Bearce and
Bondanella 2007; Esty and Ivanova 2002; Bartlett et al. 1995).
The public sector accounts for about 30 per cent of gross
domestic product (GDP) worldwide (World Bank 2011) and is an
essential tool in creating enabling conditions for societal change,
with public-private partnerships and social networks bringing
new opportunities for engagement. Notwithstanding all the good
intentions and efforts, however, the Earth and its sub-systems
are showing signs of considerable degradation.
The global response framework: from isolation to

integration
Currently, environmental problems are rarely tackled in an

integrated fashion. The connectedness of climate change,
water resources, desertification and biodiversity loss, for
example, makes isolated governance responses inadequate and
potentially counterproductive. A more integrated approach to
substantive issues and spatial scale demands a new adaptive
governance framework.
Global environmental issues can be divided into those that are
common to many or most countries, including pollution of water
bodies or solid waste disposal, and those that affect the global
commons such as pollution of the global atmosphere or the
open seas. Not all environmental issues require a global scale

of governance. Some can be addressed through cooperation
between a few countries, for example the transboundary
water concerns of the Mekong or Zambezi rivers or networks
of protected areas for endangered marine species with limited
ranges. However, problems of the global commons ones
that cumulatively lead to negative global trends and/or whose
drivers are essentially global often require international
treaties to ensure collective global action. Relationships between
international and national scales of governance tend to be
structured as:
bottom-up: countries harmonize national policy, with the
policy space created determining the ability to accommodate
international commitments;
top-down: thresholds, targets and principles are decided
at global level and then translated into national-scale
implementation;
multi-level: policy development that addresses the complex
relationships between the different levels of governance and
the actors involved.
Governments have used international institutions as key
instruments when global action is required. Cooperative
behaviour is enhanced by changing the environment within
which collective agreements arise, increasing awareness
about particular issues, and enhancing national capacity to
deal with the problems in question (Haas et al. 1993). In the
environmental field, international institutions have channelled
information, created norms and principles, provided training
and financial resources to affected countries, and catalysed
actions at multiple levels of governance (Young 2010, 2002).
The UN General Assembly formally initiated the international
environmental agenda through Resolution 2398 (XXIII) on
3 December 1968, calling for the convening of the United Nations
Conference on the Human Environment, the 1972 Stockholm
Conference. The assembly framed the environmental challenge as
an integral part of economic and social development, with UNEP
established as the institutional mechanism to ensure follow-up
to the environmental dimension of the conference outcome. The
promotion and coordination of environmental activities within
the whole UN system was one of the core functions governments
delegated to UNEP. With environmental awareness on the rise,
the new programme also initiated a number of new international
agreements aiming to address emerging environmental issues.
Environmental activities have become an integral component
of the UN system, represented by its programmes, agencies,
secretariats and coordinating mechanisms. Table 17.1 identifies
core instruments anchored within the UN systems multi-sectoral
environmental response regime as they relate to the environmental
issues assessed in Part 1 of GEO-5. The many instruments at the
regional level, such as international agreements on transboundary
waters, are not included. Nonetheless, the table illustrates that the
competence and capacities of the environmental institutions in the
UN system are distributed among its different entities and policy
sectors, reflecting the growing importance of various governing
bodies across the system.
Global Responses
461
Table 17.1 Core elements of the UN system-wide environmental response regime

Theme
462
Instruments
Sustainable
development
International soft law instruments and institutions: Rio Declaration on Environment and Development and Agenda 21 from the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, 1992); Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (JPOI); Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs); Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD); and UN system entities
Science processes: Group on Earth Observations and its Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS); Inter-Agency and Expert Group
(IAEG) on MDG indicators coordinated by the United Nations Statistics Division
Inter-agency bodies: Chief Executive Board for Coordination (CEB); High Level Committee on Policy (HLCP); Executive Committee on Economic and
Social Affairs (ECESA)
Environment
broadly defined
International soft law instruments and institutions: Declaration and Programme of Action from the Stockholm Conference on the Human
Environment; UNEP; Global Environment Facility (GEF); the environment-related portfolio of 44 UN system entities including the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the World Bank Group.
Science processes: Global Environment Outlook (GEO) (UNEP); International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management (UNEP); Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
Funds: Environment Fund (UNEP); GEF Trust Fund; World Bank environmental and natural resource management (ENRM) lending portfolio; the
environment portfolio of other UN Multi-Donor Trust Funds (MDTF) administered by UNDP
Inter-agency bodies: Environment Management Group (EMG)
Atmosphere
Multilateral environmental agreements: Vienna Convention (1985) and Montreal Protocol (1987); United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) and Kyoto Protocol (1997)
International soft law instruments and institutions: a broad range of UN system entities, including FAO, the United Nations Conference on Trade
and Development (UNCTAD), UNDP, UNEP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as well as the World Bank have programme activities
related to atmosphere
Science processes: Technology and Economic Assessment Panel (TEAP) under the Montreal Protocol (UNEP); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) administered by WMO and UNEP; World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Funds: Montreal Fund (UNEP); GEF is the financial mechanism for the UNFCCC; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM); Special Climate Change Trust
Fund (SCCF), Adaptation Trust Fund and Least Developed Countries Trust Fund (LDCF) administered by the GEF; Environment Fund (UNEP)
Inter-agency bodies: Working Group on Climate Change under the High-Level Committee on Policy (HLCP) of the Chief Executives Board for
Coordination (CEB), and UN Energy
Land
Multilateral environmental agreements: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD, 1994)
International soft law instruments and institutions: A broad range of UN system entities, including FAO, the International Fund for Agricultural
Development (IFAD), UNDP, UNEP, UN-Habitat, World Health Organization (WHO), World Food Programme (WFP) and the World Bank, have
programme activities on land-related issues
Science processes: Covered by the Global Environment Outlook (GEO) and Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA).
Funds: GEF as the financial mechanism for UNCCD; Global Mechanism (UNCCD); Environment Fund (UNEP)
Inter-agency bodies: EMG Issue Management Group on Land
Water
Multilateral environmental agreements: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1994); International Convention for the
Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL, 1973); International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation (OPRC,
1990); Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter (LDC, 1972); International Convention for the
Control and Management of Ships Ballast Water and Sediments (2004); United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-navigable Uses of
International Water Courses (1997) (not entered into force)
International soft law instruments and institutions: International Oceanographic Commission, administered by UNESCO; Global Programme of
Action for the Protection of the Marine Environment from Land-based Activities (GPA) administered by UNEP; FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible
Fisheries; a broad range of UN system entities including FAO, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO and the
World Bank, have programme activities related to oceans and water
Science processes: Regular process for global reporting and assessment of the state of the marine environment (UNCLOS); Group of Experts on
Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP); World Water Development Report (UNESCO); and covered by the GEO and the MA
Funds: GEF international waters focal area; Environment Fund (UNEP)
Inter-agency bodies: UN-Oceans and UN-Water
Biodiversity
Multilateral environmental agreements: Ramsar Convention on Wetlands (1971); World Heritage Convention (WHC, 1972); Convention on
International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES, 1973); Convention on Migratory Species (CMS, 1979); Convention on
Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992) and the Cartagena Protocol (2000); Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources (ITPGRFA, 2001)
International soft law instruments and institutions: Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture under FAO; United Nations Forum
on Forests (UNFF); a broad range of UN system entities, including FAO, IMO, UNDP, UNEP, UNESCO, United Nations University (UNU), United Nations
World Tourist Organization (UNWTO), WHO, WMO, World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank, have programme activities related to
biodiversity
Science processes: Intergovernmental science-policy platform on biodiversity and ecosystem services (IPBES); Global Biodiversity Outlook
(CBD); Global Forest Resource Assessment; State of the World Fisheries and Aquaculture; State of the Worlds Plant Genetic Resources for Food
and Agriculture; State of the Worlds Animal Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture; International Assessment on Agricultural Science and
Technology for Development (IAASTD), and covered by GEO and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
Funds: GEF as the financial mechanism for CBD; Environment Fund (UNEP)
Inter-agency bodies: EMG Issue Management Group on Biodiversity; Biodiversity Liaison Group
Table 17.1 Core elements of the UN system-wide environmental response regime continued
Theme
Chemicals and
waste
Instruments
Multilateral environmental agreements Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal
(1989); Rotterdam Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade
(1998); Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs, 2001).
International soft law instruments and institutions: Negotiation of a convention on mercury (UNEP); Strategic Approach to International Chemicals
Management (SAICM); a range of UN entities, including FAO, International Labour Organization (ILO), UNDP, UNEP, United Nations Industrial
Development Organization (UNIDO), United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), WHO and the World Bank, have programme activities
related to chemicals
Science processes: Covered by GEO
Funds: GEF is the financial mechanism for the POPs Convention; Environment Fund (UNEP)
Inter-agency bodies: Inter-Organization Programme for the Sound Management of Chemicals (IOMC)
While the level of environmental integration both within and

outside the UN system is significant representing an important
source of competence and capacity the integrated governance
of the diverse and multi-sectoral environmental field is complex
and, at times, problematic (Oberthr and Stokke 2011),
especially for sustainability goals.
At times it seems that calls to simplify are at odds with a need
to capture system complexity: on one hand, governments have
requested that the United Nations foster synergies between
compatible multilateral environmental agreements and identify
guiding elements for realizing such synergies while respecting
the autonomy of the conferences of the parties (UNEP 2011e).
There have been several attempts to integrate these diverse
efforts, including clustering the chemical conventions by
convening simultaneous Extraordinary Conferences of the
Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions
in February 2010 in Bali, Indonesia. There is also coordination
between the three Rio conventions on climate, biodiversity,
and desertification under the Joint Liaison Group and the 44
UN entities of the Environment Management Group, the UN-wide
coordination body for the environment (UNEP 2011f).
The late Mrs Indira Gandhi, then Prime Minister of India, addressing the
UN Conference on the Human Environment in Stockholm on 5 June 1972.
Yutaka Nagata/UN Photo
On the other hand, interrelationships and interdependencies

exist between all levels of governance and intervention from the
individual and community scale to the global level. Multiple causal
mechanisms are at work, including normative influences, prices
and markets, political pressure and incentives, persuasion, social
learning and the science-policy interface (Simmons et al. 2006).
Each may operate in isolation or with others, build pressures over
time and in combination. Multi-scale interventions can be both
counterproductive and mutually enforcing. In such interventions,
countries can adopt policies that they then encourage others
to adopt as international norms and/or law, yet those policies
may influence others adversely. Once in place, the norms and
economic incentives may affect behaviour more broadly. They
may also engender future changes to legal regimes, normative
signals, social learning and resource transfers. In addition, diverse
actors including members of civil society organizations, scientific
networks and research institutions, international organizations,
faith communities and the private sector are engaged not only
in demanding but also in providing global responses (Slaughter
2004; Commission on Global Governance 1995; Rosenau and

Czempiel 1991; Keohane and Nye 1971).
Legal and policy framework
As Part 1 of this report illustrates, it is difficult to measure

success in achieving environmental goals, especially if those
goals are not quantified. Environmental treaties form the core
legal and policy framework for the global environment and aim
to set appropriate goals for the international community. While
environmental laws are legally binding, the lack of specific
targets and timetables often implies that these are, in effect,
soft law guidelines rather than hard law frameworks. Some
treaties are also difficult to implement because of the lack of
capacity in individual countries. In addition, verifying change in
environmental quality and attributing changes to specific policy
measures is challenging without robust and comparable data,
especially at the global level.
Global Responses
463
Environmental treaties
Today, there are more than 500 international treaties and other
agreements that relate to the environment, of which 323 are
regional and 302 date from 1972 and the early 2000s. The
core of the global environmental legal framework, however,
is made up of a more limited number of treaties with a
growing number of ratifications (Figure 17.1). Most of the new
agreements have established new, independent bureaucracies
and this proliferation has fragmented authority in international
environmental governance. Thus, while the creation of the
various environmental conventions and protocols can be
viewed as an achievement, it also raises the need for continuing
support in developing countries when national administrations
become overloaded with reporting requirements and countless
international meetings (Najam 2005; Biermann 2004).
A distinguishing feature of the more effective treaties is their
development through the interplay of organized scientific
communities (Haas and Stevens 2011) and a moderate to strong
international institution (Biermann and Siebenhner 2009;
Haas 2007). The scientific community informs treaties that
reflect an understanding of the problems and their solutions,
while the institutions integrate the science into draft treaties,
help promote the ideas of the scientists, coordinate meetings,
compile information repositories, provide incentives to states
to participate in negotiations and assist member states in
complying with their obligations. Innovation in technology,
networking, coordination and knowledge management can help
this process. Chapter 16 has also pointed to the critical role
of planning in creating the conditions suitable to coordinate

integrated, complex or multi-procedural outcomes.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the
Ozone Layer is one example of such a success. Under this,
countries have almost totally eliminated the production of
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in just 20 years. The protocols
success resulted from:
scientific consensus on the problem;
public awareness and pressure;
existence of a cost-effective substitute;
private sector buy-in;
leadership from both an international institution, UNEP, and a
national agency, the US Environmental Protection Agency;
a concrete plan of action; and
mobilization of financial resources in developed countries to
assist developing countries and economies in transition.
Unfortunately, one of the replacement chemicals,
hydrofluorocarbons, has a high global warming potential and
now needs to be phased out to address climate change
illustrating the interconnectivity of environmental problems.
Similarly, cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere, possibly
due to climate change, are resulting in increased loss of ozone,
particularly over the Arctic.
Capacity building and diffusion of policy tools
To ensure a responsive and cohesive approach to meeting

country needs and achieving environmental results and
Figure 17.1 Growth in ratification of environmental treaties, 19712011

Number of Parties
200
Ozone
UNFCCC
CBD
UNCCD
Kyoto
Heritage
Basel
Stockholm
CITES
UNCLOS
Cartagena
Ramsar
Rotterdam
CMS
150
100
50
0
1971
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2011
Source: UNEP Environmental Data Explorer, compiled from various MEA Secretariats http://geodata.grid.unep.ch
464
Box 17.1 Diffusion of policy tools worldwide the case of strategic environmental assessment
One widely used policy tool across all regions is strategic
environmental assessment, which helps to integrate national
environmental policies. This goes beyond environmental
impact assessments to ensure that environmental, social
and economic information is incorporated into decision
making in a unified manner. The process involves analysing
the likely impacts of decisions; fostering public participation;
developing and comparing alternatives fostering; recording
the impact, options and comments from the public in a report;
ensuring that the report is taken into account when making
final decisions; and informing the public about the decisions.
Strategic environmental assessments were initially
implemented in Europe, but have since spread to many
outcomes, developing and implementing a system-wide

capacity-building framework is crucial (OECD 2011b). Studies
from international organizations (Baser and Morgan 2008),
academics (Eyben 2006), non-governmental organizations
(Lipson and Warren 2006) and other practitioners (James
and Wrigley 2007) suggest that capacity building:
is a complex human process based on values, emotions and
beliefs;
involves the main actors taking responsibility for the process
of change;
involves shifts in power and identity;
involves changes in relationships between elements of
human systems;
is uncertain and unpredictable in its outcomes; and
is strongly shaped by culture and values (Woodhill 2010).
countries, increasingly becoming an obligatory part of

national legislation (OECD 2012). Experiences in Africa, for
example, show that this type of assessment has to go beyond
the project level and be carried out on the level of policy
plans to become effective. In Guinea, it has been used to
develop the co-management of reserved forests; in Zambia
and Zimbabwe, the International Union for the Conservation
of Nature (IUCN) supported its use for planning developments
around Victoria Falls a World Heritage site; Morocco used it
to provide an analysis of legal, regulatory, and institutional
aspects of environmental impacts in the large-scale irrigation
sector (Economic Commission of Africa 2005); while in
Ghana it has improved the management of mangrove forests
(Sampong 2004).
of the core elements of the new environment programme, the

Environment Fund was intended to finance new environmental
initiatives within the UN system and to assist developing
countries. Today, environmental financing comes in the form
of environmental aid from bilateral and multilateral donors,
including through funds dedicated to specific environmental
concerns such as the Montreal Fund to support ozone-related
work, climate funds to support mitigation and adaptation, funds
to combat deforestation, and others. The Global Environment
Facility (GEF) is the largest funder of projects that specifically
seek to improve the global environment through support for the
additional costs of transforming projects with national benefits
into projects with global environmental benefits.
This implies greater consideration and recognition of the less

visible aspects of capacity building, such as values, legitimacy,
identity and self-confidence, as well as other non-monetary
forms of motivation (Aragn and Macedo 2010). It also involves
improving access to key resources such as finance, technology
and knowledge that underpin capacity and capabilities.
Capacity building can also be advanced by building on lessons
learned from a diffusion of policy tools. Strategic environmental
assessments are an example of diffusion of policy instruments
where timing, public participation and credibility of policy
analysis stand out as important determinants of success
(Runhaar and Driesen 2007).
Financial flows
Expanding the donor base, increasing the availability and

accessibility of funds, and ensuring stable and predictable
financial flows are among the top priorities in international
environmental governance (UNEP 2010). The first financing
mechanism designed explicitly and exclusively for global
environmental purposes was the Environment Fund. Created
in 1972 through UN General Assembly Resolution 2997 as one
Rapid developments in information technology over the past 20 years

have revolutionized many aspects of life, including the development of
truly global financial markets. Robert Churchill/iStock
Global Responses
465
Box 17.2 Identifying financial flows for environmental response

It is currently difficult to get a complete picture of the amount
of resources invested in environmental activities at normative
and operational levels. Financial resources are often counted
several times as funding flows from one organization to
another or between funding categories. This double counting
is also due to lack of distinct definitions and the inherent
overlaps between categories of spending. Reported financial
figures are often not fully comparable because the financial
year and budget procedures vary among institutions.
Furthermore, since much of the investment in environmental
activities happens through integrating environmental
perspectives and issues into policies, programmes and
projects, it is often difficult to distinguish environmental
activities from sectoral ones. For example, as much as 85 per
cent of the World Banks environmental and natural resource
management (ENRM) projects are currently being managed by
non-environmental sectors in the bank (UNEP 2011c). Several
important developments illustrate annual financial flows for
responses to environmental challenges.
The carbon market stalled in 2010 at US$142 billion after
rapid growth, partly because of lack of regulatory clarity. The
figure includes the value of the primary and secondary Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) markets, which respectively
stood at US$1.5 billion and US$18.3 billion (World Bank 2011).
Yet, long-standing commitments from developed countries

to improve access to finance for developing countries remain
largely unfulfilled, and insufficient and unpredictable financial
resources continue to constrain effective environmental
governance at all levels (OECD 2011b). It is currently difficult
to identify the financial flows for environmental responses
(Box 17.2) as there is no tracking system to monitor resources
invested in environmental activities by the United Nations and
other international institutions (UNEP 2011e). A review of the
existing data shows that while there are significant financial
investments in climate change and other environmental
initiatives, they fall well short of the scale required to address
the challenges (Behrens 2009; Mller 2009; UNDP 2007). For
example, the World Bank estimates that the price tag between
2010 and 2050 for adapting to an approximately 2oC warmer
world by 2050 will be in the range of US$70 billion to US$100
billion a year (World Bank 2010a).
The Environment Fund
The Environment Fund is the principal source of financing for
the implementation of UNEPs programme, and was established
by the UN General Assembly in 1972. Altogether, 181 countries
have made at least one voluntary contribution in the period
between 1973 and 2011, with 12 countries having maintained
their regular annual contributions over the whole period (UNEP
2012). The four-decade trend depicted in Figure 17.2, however,
shows that the original intention to grow the fund proportionally
466
Countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation

and Development (OECD) allocated the following official
development assistance (ODA):
up to US$22.9 billion, 15 per cent of total ODA, to
climate change mitigation and adaptation in 2010
(OECD 2011c);
US$4.3 billion to biodiversity in 2009 (OECD 2011a);
US$1.9 billion to desertification in 2009 (OECD 2011a).
UNEP (2011c) reports the following indicative levels of
financial environmental flows:
annual pledges to the GEF for the fifth replenishment
agreed in 2010 amount to US$1.1 billion;
the World Banks environmental and natural resource
management (ENRM) portfolio, including the GEF, in
2008 reached US$3 billion;
the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP)
expenditures on environmental activities, including the
GEF, in 2009 were US$1.1 billion;
UNEPs budget for 2010 was US$0.5 billion including
the GEF, the Environment Fund and the Multilateral
Fund for the implementation of the Montreal Protocol;
the combined annual budget for the three Rio
conventions in the period 20082011 was of the order
of US$0.1 billion.
Figure 17.2 The Environment Fund, 19732009

US$, million, adjusted for inflation
200
160
Constant
120
80
Current
40
0
1973
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005 2009
Source: Ivanova 2011
Table 17.2: Financial resources available to selected global multilateral environmental agreements, 2010
Cluster: Atmosphere
US$, million
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP)
3.62
Vienna Convention on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
4.84
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
107.90
Total
116.36
Cluster: Biodiversity
Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS)
0.33
Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety
2.76
Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar Convention)
4.67
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)
5.07
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
12.36
Total
25.19
Cluster: Chemicals and wastes
Convention on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade
(Rotterdam Convention)
0.93
Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Stockholm/POPs Convention)
5.47
Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal (Basel Convention)
Total
5.84
12.24
Other agreements
Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (World Heritage Convention)
1.95
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification,
Particularly in Africa (UNCCD)
5.90
Total
7.85
TOTAL
161.64
Source: Ivanova and Delina forthcoming in 2012.
with intensifying environmental problems has not been truly

realized. While it shows some growth in current terms, in real
terms (adjusted for inflation), the fund fell by 44 per cent
between 1977 and 1987 and is only now reaching the
US$160 million per biennium that UNEP attracted in the
1970s and again in the run-up to the 1992 Rio Earth Summit
(Ivanova 2011).
Multilateral environmental agreements
As discussed, governments created multilateral environmental
agreements when new environmental issues emerged. Table
17.2 offers an overview of financial flows for the secretariats
of MEAs by cluster the GEF provides funding for project-level
work in these clusters.
The Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal
Protocol
Funding for implementation of most multilateral environmental
agreements comes through special funds, the largest of
which is the Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the
Montreal Protocol. Created in 1990 and administered by
UNEP, it helps developing countries comply with the protocols
control measures. It has been replenished eight times since

the beginning of its operation in 1991, with contributions from
the industrialized countries, including countries in transition,
assessed according to the UN scale of assessment. The
significant financial resources devoted to the ozone treaty
during 19912011 governments pledged US$2.8 billion to
the Montreal Protocol (UNEP 2011f) can be seen both as
a reason for and an indicator of the treatys effectiveness in
eliminating the production and consumption of most CFCs.
Significant initial investment was critical to the funds success,
and this initial success stimulated sustained investment in
the longer-term.
The Global Environment Facility
Established as a US$1 billion pilot programme in the World
Bank in 1992, the GEF has evolved to become the financial
mechanism for several multilateral environmental agreements,
including UNFCCC, the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), the
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
and the Stockholm Convention. Over the past 20 years, the
GEF has allocated US$10 billion for more than 2800 projects
in more than 168 developing countries and economies in
Global Responses
467
transition, and more than 13000 small grants totalling

US$634 million have been made directly to civil society and
community-based organizations (GEF 2011). Although the GEF
was initially a partnership between the World Bank, UNDP and
UNEP, today it is in partnership with ten UN agencies, 182 civil
Figure 17.3: GEF portfolio and co-financing

allocations by focal area, 19912010
Land
degradation
Multi-focal
area
POPs
Biodiversity
668
1 834 200
3 880
192
356 428
1 209
International
waters
6 547
1 149
19 167
Climate
change
3 078
GEF PORTFOLIO
USD, million
3 070
8 401
Ozone
depletion
CO-FINANCING
Source: GEF 2010
society organizations and the private sector. This diversity

of participation is directly related to the GEFs co-financing
requirement, through which it has leveraged more than
US$47 billion of funds additional to those available through
UN and World Bank channels since 1992. The GEFs operational
arrangements have also evolved, with a new system for the
transparent allocation of resources (STAR) implemented in
2010. That same year, donors pledged more than US$4.3
billion in replenishment for the period 20102014 (GEF-5),
representing a 55 per cent increase in resources over GEF-4
(GEF 2010). During 19912010, the GEF invested more than
US$50 billion, US$40.7 billion of which came from co-financing
from development partners almost half of these funds
were used for climate change mitigation and adaptation
(Figure 17.3). In 2010 alone, the GEF disbursed a little over
US$5 billion for its work; 81 per cent of this amount was
from co-financing (GEF 2010).
Environmental official development assistance
Close to US$100 billion of aid, an average of 15 per cent of
the global total, was committed to the environment in 1998
2007 (Castro and Hammond 2009), with the most significant
source of environmental financing being official development
assistance (ODA) from the OECD countries. OECD countries
aid commitments targeted at the objectives of the three Rio
conventions combined grew from US$5.1 billion in 1999 to
US$17.4 billion in 2009 (Figure 17.4), largely because of
increases in funds targeted at climate change. The challenges
of proliferation of institutional mechanisms, however, are
acute in the environmental field.
Box 17.3 International aid for the environment

Environmental aid is no different from aid to other sectors:
there are too many actors, adding to the administrative
burden on countries and donors, and impeding aid
effectiveness. The average partner country has 17 donors
out of the 23 members and 10 major multilateral agencies
that report to the OECDs Development Assistance Committee
(DAC). Adding up the number of donors in each country for
the 153 countries that receive ODA shows that there are
2617 donor/recipient partnerships, all of which need to be
maintained through policy dialogue, planning, coordination,
accounting and reporting. In 1571 of these partnerships
60 per cent donors are providing environment aid.
The individual size of the projects and programmes that
constitute these partnerships varies enormously. At one
extreme, four donors annually provide over US$10 million
of core environmental aid on average per partner, while at
the other extreme there are 11 donors whose average aid
per partner is less than US$1 million. Moreover, the number
of small partnerships has increased faster in the past
decade than the larger ones. This plethora of partnerships
468
is just a glimpse of the complexity of the architecture of

environmental aid. Each donor operates through an average
of three agencies using literally thousands of channels. There
are also 30 or more bilateral donors that are not members of
the DAC, and dozens of small multilateral agencies operating
environmental aid programmes.
Official development finance for the environment is
big business, with thousands of actors and annual
commitments exceeding US$15 billion. But, in common
with the health sector, the number of actors and channels
needs to be rationalized through a better division of labour.
Otherwise, as aid to the environment is scaled up in
response to the challenges of climate change, there is a
danger that developing countries will be further overburdened
with a plethora of competing actors, funds and initiatives,
which will undermine the effectiveness of the aid
being provided and limit developmental and
environmental results.
Source: Castro and Hammond 2009
Figure 17.4 OECD countries aid commitments to UNCCD, CBD and UNFCCC, 19982009
US$, million
18
16
UNCCD (desertification)
CBD (biodiversity)
UNFCCC (climate change)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: OECD 2011a
Stakeholder engagement: from consultation to

participation
Traditionally reserved for governments, the global arena is

now open to a broader range of civil society actors, including
non-governmental organizations, businesses, faith groups and
academic institutions (Willetts 2011; Gemmill and BamideleIzu 2002). Over the years, the role of stakeholders in global
governance has shifted from simply being consulted in the
1960s, to serving as back-stage managers in the 1970s, to
being protected and empowered in the 1980s, to being invited
as partners in the 1990s, to the present state as practitioners
carrying out initiatives on the ground. This transition has been
described as one of increasing engagement and empowerment
(Gupta 2003). Stakeholders have had significant impact, from
their role in requesting advisory opinions from the International
Court of Justice on the legality of nuclear weapons (Yamin 2001),
to involvement in environmental litigation (Beyerlin 2001). In
global water governance, non-state actors have even taken the
lead, filling an institutional void and responding to an emerging
need for a global response to water problems (Varady and IlesShih 2009; Pahl-Wostl et al. 2008).
National and global responses to environmental challenges
require effective engagement of multiple stakeholders at
different levels of governance in the collective definition,
adoption and implementation of solutions (Parts 1 and 2). At
the global level, collaboration between actors comes into play
at different stages of policy intervention, including agenda

setting and framing; rule-making; enforcement; and assessing
resilience (Underdal 1998; Haas 2000). By participating in
global governance, civil society groups have the opportunity to
communicate concerns from local stakeholders to international
organizations. Additionally, civil society groups facilitate
informed public debate by collecting and disseminating
information about, and critical evaluations of, international
governance (Steffek and Nanz 2008).
Participatory approaches can be transformational (Hickey and
Mohan 2005; Chambers 1997; Mohan 2002) or instrumental
(Neef 2008; Hooper 2005; Mohan 2002; Mayo and Craig 1995).
In the information age, decision makers possess a plethora
of new means to engage stakeholders. Social networks, for
example, can be valuable if unpredictable assets for engaging
citizens in active, emergent and functional communities of
practice. Crowdsourcing, the act of sourcing tasks normally
performed by individuals by issuing an open call, is increasingly
used to encourage community-based design and democratic
participation. Iceland recently crowd-sourced a wiki/opensource version of its constitution and the result was a proposal
for several changes with broad public support (Constitutional
Council of Iceland 2011). In fact, non-governmental organizations
have been critical to the development and existence of an open,
publicly accessible internet conducive to democratic global
engagement (Willetts 2011).
Global Responses
469
OPTIONS FOR GLOBAL RESPONSES
Effective responses to global environmental problems require a

management framework that embodies a holistic and adaptive
approach at all levels. Such a framework would include clear and
measurable goals, verifiable strategies, and sound monitoring
and evaluation mechanisms to address the root causes of
emerging environmental problems, reducing environmental and
social vulnerability, and accommodating multiple perspectives
and solutions. At each stage, a multi-stakeholder interactive and
iterative process would take place. This approach would facilitate
the adoption of more realistic plans that can be continuously
monitored, as well as promoting ownership and accountability
(FAO 2010; UNDG 2010). Against this backdrop, this section
assesses the rationale for the following six linked and mutually
reinforcing response options:
framing environmental goals in the context of sustainable
development;
enhancing the effectiveness of global institutions;
investing in enhanced capacities for addressing
environmental change;
supporting technological innovation and development;
strengthening rights-based approaches and access to
environmental justice; and
deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement.
Framing environmental goals in the context of sustainable
development
Findings from GEO-5 reinforce the importance of setting
measurable goals and targets to effectively monitor progress
and advance the sustainability agenda. Goal-setting arenas
at the international level include not only public institutions
such as the UN system but also civil society groups and privatesector associations, among others. Global goals need to be
complemented by synergized regional, national and local goals,
as well as concrete national action plans.
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) represent a resultsbased approach to advancing human well-being by setting and
monitoring global development outcomes. Lessons should be
learnt from the MDGs to implement a results-based framework
with global goals for sustainable development, including the
environment, and provide clear metrics for measuring and tracking
progress. The MDG addressing environmental sustainability,
MDG 7, for example, has proven challenging to implement
in most countries, not least because of a lack of measurable
indicators (World Bank 2005). The MDG 7 target of integrating the
principles of sustainable development into country policies and
programmes, and reversing the loss of environmental resources,
is the only non-quantitative target in the MDG framework. As a
result, according to the OECD (2008), MDG 7 often gets pushed
aside in the programmes of bilateral donors and international
financing institutions.
A more balanced set of goals for sustainable development could
more effectively help address the risks that environmental
change may pose to development. This can be illustrated by
the scenario analysis from the Human Development Report
470
2011 (UNDP 2011), which shows that countries with a very high
Human Development Index (HDI) score are projected to be less
affected by environmental risks than those in all other categories
(Figure 17.5), and demonstrates the need for a set of goals for
sustainable development that promotes a balanced integration
of its environmental, social and economic dimensions.
Effective monitoring of environmental outcomes requires
establishing quantifiable metrics or conditional states that can
be measured, such as the nitrate concentration in a body of water
or the number of species inhabiting a specific area (Jordan et
al. 2010). Methodological techniques such as gap analysis,
distance-to-target comparative analysis and benchmarking can
provide valuable insights into how countries perform relative to
each other. Common indicators can facilitate knowledge transfer as
they help governments at all levels to identify and share successful
implementation strategies (Strange and Bayley 2008). The MEAs
have been developing global goals that focus on articulating the
desired state of the environment, reducing pressures and creating
joint measures, together with technical assistance and capacity
building to scale up implementation. Increasingly, these goals
have been specified so that results can be identified through
quantifiable metrics or conditional states that can be measured.
Figure 17.5 Scenarios projecting the impacts

of environmental risks on human development,
19802050
HDI
1.0
0.9
Very high HDI countries
0.8
0.7
0.6
Low, medium and high

HDI countries
0.5
Base case
Environmental challenge
Environmental disaster
0.4
0.3
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
The HDIs base case scenario assumes limited changes in equality,

environmental threats and risks, while the environmental challenges
scenario envisions intensified environmental risks. The biophysical and
human systems in the environmental disaster scenario are put under
severe stress by, for example, the overuse of fossil fuels and falling
water tables, glacial melting, progressive deforestation and land
degradation, dramatic declines in biodiversity, greater frequency of
extreme weather and increased civil conflict.
Source: UNDP 2011
Without clear metrics for measuring progress towards

sustainable development, achieving internationally agreed
goals will remain elusive. In bringing sustainability to the core
of decision making, rethinking the way economic development
and human well-being are currently measured and monitored
becomes crucial (Pintr et al. 2011; Stiglitz et al. 2009). This
requires a broader set of indicators for measuring economic,
social and environmental dimensions of sustainable
development that go beyond GDP, currently the most widely
used indicator of economic development. This has long been
called for, and measurement reform has recently received
greater attention in political agendas, as illustrated by such
efforts as the on-going review and revision of the framework
for environmental accounts led by the UN Statistics Division
(United Nations 2011), the adjusted net national savings
methods of the World Bank (World Bank 2010b), the European
Commissions Beyond GDP programme (Stiglitz et al. 2009),
the OECDs Measuring the Progress of Societies initiative
(Hall et al. 2010) and UNEPs Green Economy Initiative
(UNEP 2011d). These have resulted in the development of
environmental and social indicators and aggregate indices
to complement GDP and traditional national accounts that are
now beginning to be applied.
Governments, academia, civil society and the private sector
could collaborate in the development of environmental goals for
the global, regional and national levels within the sustainable
development framework. Examples of such collaborations
include internationally agreed goals to:
stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere
at a level that would keep the increase in global temperature
below 2oC relative to pre-industrial levels, and enhance longterm cooperative action to combat climate change on the
basis of equity (UNFCCC 2010);
halt the loss of biodiversity in order to ensure that
ecosystems are resilient and continue to provide essential
services, thereby securing the planets variety of life and
contributing to human well-being and poverty eradication
(CBD 2010);
reverse and prevent desertification and land degradation and

mitigate the effects of drought in affected areas in order to
support poverty reduction and environmental sustainability
(UNCCD 2008).
Any internationally agreed sustainable development goals would
need to be customized and translated into national targets in
order to facilitate measurement of progress towards meeting
those targets and facilitate support for their implementation.
The development and implementation of internationally agreed
indicators could then be coupled with piloting, capacity building
in statistical offices, and collaboration with the private sector,
research institutions and non-governmental organizations. The
data collected and utilized through the monitoring of indicators
could be maintained and shared through collaborative databases
open to the public. Such goal-setting processes could draw on
regional experiences and be informed by and draw inspiration
from various schemes that address Earth System challenges,
such as the Earth Charter Initiative (2011) and the Stockholm
Memorandum: Tipping the Scales Towards Sustainability
(Nobel Laureate Symposium 2011). Furthermore, incentive and
accountability mechanisms would need to be put in place for
monitoring the progress towards achieving goals, acknowledging
and supporting successes and thereby facilitating progress.
Enhancing the effectiveness of global institutions
Successful global responses to environmental challenges
require accurate data and rigorous analysis, agreement on any
course of action, and effective execution and implementation of
agreed strategies at all levels. The science-policy interface has
been strengthened in recent years, particularly in the field of
indicators, assessments and early warning systems, supported
by developments in research, modelling, monitoring and
observations, and especially by advances in information and
communication technologies. Significant attention has been
given to the design and governance structure of these processes
to ensure their scientific independence and credibility as well
as their legitimacy and relevance to the full and meaningful
participation of developing countries (UNEP 2011e). The interface
Box 17.4 Response option 1: Framing environmental goals in the context of sustainable development and
monitoring outcomes
Establish a sustainable development goals framework that
integrates the contribution of the environment to development
and poverty reduction. A process could be initiated to revisit
and extend the MDGs in the form of Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) with clear, measurable indicators, keeping in
mind the need for a coherent and balanced integration of the
environmental, economic and social pillars of sustainability.
These goals could serve as a common reference point for
action and accountability for a wide range of actors, including
intergovernmental institutions, the private sector, civil society
and individuals. The framework could articulate a vision for

enhancing human well-being as it relates to health, material
needs, social relations and security in an inter- and intragenerational, equitable manner.
Such a framework could be complemented by targets and
measurable indicators building on initiatives that go beyond
GDP. Placed within such a framework, a sub-set of global
environmental goals could draw on an assessment of existing
international environmental agreements and instruments,
including the three Rio conventions UNFCCC, CBD and UNCCD.
Global Responses
471
could be further strengthened by addressing inequalities in

scientific capacity through scaling up support for science-policy
capacity in developing countries. Additional efforts could include
strengthening data-gathering systems, cooperation on enhancing
the connectivity and efficiency of existing international
environmental assessments, scientific panels and information
networks, and targeting the communication of scientific findings
to various audiences. Technology can enable resource users to
make better decisions and can give decision makers access to
better and timelier information about environmental conditions,
helping them organize effective responses. The diffusion of
global positioning systems (GPS), mobile telephones and
other decentralized technologies, including social media, can
strengthen citizen engagement and involvement, which can help
create a more robust foundation for coherent decision making.
This sort of dynamic approach would strengthen institutions by
adding wider society into the science-policy interface further
broadening the depth of stakeholder engagement and integrating
the concept of human well-being into action and implementation.
Agreement on a global course of action requires effective
coordination, which is especially difficult at the global level.
Within the United Nations, the environment falls within the of
organizations with thematic and functional focuses directly
related to the environment, and of other institutions that have
integrated the environment as a priority area (UNEP 2011c).
Consultations on how to strengthen international environmental
governance have been active since 2006, when the UN General
Assembly agreed to explore the possibility of a more coherent
institutional framework to address environmental activities
efficiently. The negotiations, including consultations under

UNEPs Governing Council, revealed that regularized processes
for developing, implementing, assessing and revising a UN
system-wide environmental strategy and the division of labour
are necessary. A new strategy, developed through an inclusive
process involving governments and seeking input from civil
society, including the private sector, could facilitate interagency cooperation and clarify the division of labour within the
UN system (UNEP 2011e). A recent review of the evolution of
environmental activities in the United Nations has demonstrated
that there are substantive environmental resources and
capacities within the system (UNEP 2011f), which could be
mobilized and better utilized through a regularized process of
developing, implementing and revising an overarching strategy.
While the system for global environmental governance has
grown rapidly, there has been no systematic assessment of the
performance of international organizations in relation to their
mandates or to their impact on environmental quality. The absence
of a scientifically credible and politically legitimate assessment
of the institutional aspects and options for strengthening
international environmental governance could be a reason why it
has proved difficult for countries to agree on a way forward. The
United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in 2012
(Rio+20) is an opportunity to initiate an assessment of institutional
performance and a strategic analysis of options for strengthening
international environmental governance. The process could follow
the procedures of the GEO process and take the form of a special
GEO report that builds on and deepens the analysis of the global
response. The intergovernmental aspects of the process could
The five successive Executive Directors of UNEP gathered together in Glion, Switzerland, for the Global Environmental Governance Forum in June 2009,
where they lent their voices and support for an international agreement on climate change. Satishkumar Belliethathan/Global Environmental Governance Project
472
Box 17.5 Response option 2: Enhancing the effectiveness of global institutions

Elevate and mainstream the sustainable development
agenda into the core of decision making within the UN
system, supported by enhanced cooperation with and
between environmental, economic and social institutions.
Cooperation between key institutions could be strengthened,
including by building on and further enhancing the work of
the Chief Executives Board on Coordination (CEB) and the
Environmental Management Group (EMG) as currently guided
by the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) and the UNEP
Governing Council respectively.
Within the institutional framework of sustainable
development:
convene a science-policy interface forum with
representatives from existing environmental assessments,
scientific panels and information networks to advance
their connectivity and efficiency, facilitate ways of meeting
the science-policy capacity needs of developing countries,
strengthen data gathering and target the communication of
scientific findings to various audiences;
launch a consultative process for the development of
a system-wide strategy for the environment in the UN
be ensured through an initial and concluding intergovernmental

consultation and government peer review. Scientific credibility
could be ensured by appointing leading scientific experts both
from within and beyond the UN system, and through extensive
scientific and system-wide peer review.
Investing in enhanced capacities for addressing environmental
change
Enhancing capacity requires multi-dimensional and systemic
approaches. The capacity of individuals, institutions and
organizations as well as societies and communities to implement
effective policies is tied to a complex set of tangible and
intangible attitudes, resources, strategies and skills (Aragn
and Macedo 2010). Part 2 of GEO-5 highlights the inadequacy
of purely technical assistance and emphasizes the importance
of governance systems, knowledge systems, technology and
shared value systems in reducing vulnerability and strengthening
resilience to environmental change. Limited capacity for
designing, implementing and reviewing the effectiveness
of policies can be a significant barrier to successful policy
replication, scaling and learning, especially in developing
countries. More focused policies are needed on the less visible
aspects of capacity enhancement, such as values, legitimacy,
identity and self-confidence, as well as other non-monetary forms
of motivation (Aragn and Macedo 2010).
Effective environmental governance is made more challenging
by the range of sectoral agencies whose decisions can have an
environmental impact. Organizational design at the international
system, built around those environmental goals that

already have international agreement. The UNEP Governing
Council, the principle subsidiary body of the General
Assembly on environmental matters, could set up a
process by tasking the EMG as the principle inter-agency
environment body to draft the strategy and then devise a
process for review by and consultation with the governing
bodies of members of the EMG and other inter-agency
bodies and stakeholders;
initiate a strategic review of entities in the international
environmental system that compares actual performance
to expected results, identifies key constraints and
opportunities and outlines ways to measure impact. An
independent review would help clarify the environmental
mandates of existing organizations, elaborate a
substantive vision for global environmental governance
and outline ways to address priority issues. It would also
collate reports on the status of reform efforts, set shortand long-term goals, and establish timeframes to complete
reforms. It could provide a replicable template for similar
assessments of other global public goods and help build a
foundation for continued United Nations reforms.
and national level rests on the functional division of authority

into isolated decision-making units. While governments and the
international system have, since the 1972 Stockholm Conference,
striven to remedy gaps in information flow and authority,
environment ministries remain relatively weak within national
governments and within the international system. Economic
ministries have maintained their influence, and thus efforts to
develop policies to internalize the ecological externalities of
economic development have continued to be weak.
Numerous countries and international organizations have
experimented with institutional designs to improve the flow of
information between functional authorities. For instance, France,
Spain and the United States created coordinative environmental
councils to work with other government agencies to complement
the regulatory authority of environment ministries. At the
international level, the United Nations has tried to encourage
inter-agency cooperation and to internalize environmental
considerations into the policies of other functional agencies
(Haas and Haas 1995; Ivanova and Roy 2007).
Policy experience and best practice at a range of scales can
also provide lessons for policy development and strengthening
capacities. Part 2 of GEO-5 offers several examples of relatively
successful regional policy design and implementation, such as
the Maldives adopting a goal of carbon neutrality by 2020, and
the European Union Industrial Emissions Directive that resulted
in significant reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions across
Europe. In addition to these, the use of strategic environmental
Global Responses
473
Aerial view of Mal, capital of the Republic of the Maldives. In September 2011, the country launched an online campaign seeking help from the
worlds top experts on how to achieve carbon neutrality by 2020. Lucyna Koch/iStock
assessment has generated examples of how environmental

goals can be integrated into and addressed through national
development policy (Box 17.1).
Another key capacity challenge lies in the dearth of financial
resources. Insufficient predictability and availability of funds has
been a key constraint on effective environmental governance
at all levels. Yet, global foreign direct investment flows in 2010
were US$1.2 trillion (UNCTAD 2010), far exceeding the value of
development funding from international organizations or ODArelated flows. Innovative financial instruments that leverage
private investments and improve environmental performance
could help bridge the finance gap (Girishankar 2009) through,
for example, linking financing to environmental outcomes
(World Bank 2010c). Such instruments include debt-for-nature
swaps, payment for ecosystem services, emissions trading
and carbon finance, as well as tools from development finance
such as green bonds, microcredit, insurance and other risk
management instruments, and performance derivatives (Sander
and Cranford 2010). More recent ideas include advanced
market commitments that guarantee revenues to companies
for a limited time to stimulate markets, and prize funds for
environmentally sound technologies.
At the national level, targeted policies and instruments are
needed to facilitate large-scale green investments, generate
necessary resources for public expenditure on environmental
474
priorities and encourage green consumer choices. These could

include eco-taxes, performance standards, public procurement
strategies, green financing instruments such as green bonds, and
green accounting mechanisms (UNEP 2010). Income from taxes
related to environmental outcomes on electricity, heating fuels,
transport fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, water
and waste raised 23 per cent of GDP in European countries
in 2007, US$400 billion (304 billion) in revenues or 6.2 per
cent of total taxes and social contributions (Georgescu 2010).
In addition, some countries, such as the United Kingdom, are
establishing green infrastructure banks or greening existing
investment institutions, while at the international level there are
proposals to generate large-scale additional revenues through
coordinated levies on aviation and shipping and financial
transactions (Barbier 2012; Steckhan 2009).
The term green economy was coined some 20 years ago in
the publication Blueprint for a Green Economy (Pearce et al.
1989). The authors argued that a green economy that values
environmental assets, employs pricing policies and regulatory
changes to translate these values into market incentives, and
adjusts the economys measure of GDP for environmental loss
was needed to ensure the well-being of current and future
generations. A renewed focus on a green economy has resulted
in reports on how to promote public and private investments in
different sectors of the economy to help address unprecedented
levels of environmental change and advance the sustainable
Box 17.6 Response option 3: Investing in enhanced capacities for addressing environmental change
Establish a UN system-wide framework for capacity building.
Such a framework would strengthen the national capacity
required to implement environmental policies and could be
an integral part of a system-wide strategy on the environment
established within the wider institutional framework for
sustainable development.
Adopt a green economy roadmap, possibly within the context
of a sustainable development goals framework. A roadmap
would set out how human well-being can be enhanced
through public and private investments in the sectors of the
economy that cover demand for, and supply of the goods,
services and technologies needed to address unprecedented
levels of environmental change, and that advance the
sustainable use of natural resources. A combination of
market-based mechanisms and regulatory structures might
be needed to create employment and economic activities,
but the appropriate policy mix would depend on national
circumstances and contexts. The full spectrum of available
measures includes public investments, green accounting,
subsidies, taxes, charges, sustainable trade, creation of new
markets, planning, standards, regulations, technological
innovation, technology transfer and capacity building.
Establish policy banks. This would enable the sharing
of examples of sound environmental policy, design and
implementation from different regions, including a green
economy roadmap. This could provide opportunities for
learning, adaptation or replication at an unprecedented
scale, with the early involvement of multiple stakeholders
facilitating the development and uptake of relevant reforms.
Matching needs to the right policy tools is unlikely to occur
organically without facilitation or brokerage. Governments
use of natural resources (UNEP 2011c, 2011d). There have been

concerns that a green economy might create unsustainable jobs,
lead to inequity, create trade distortions or promote new forms
of green protectionism (UNEP 2011c). Such concerns would have
to be addressed through existing mechanisms such as trade
agreements and a balanced integration of the three pillars of
sustainable development. A calibrated framework of sustainable
development goals could guide an investment roadmap to the
green economy and help ensure that such investments are
socially and financially sustainable (Bina and Camera 2011).
In addition to increasing financing for the environment, a
related, overarching priority would be to make all investment
decisions both public and private greener. With US$2430
trillion to be invested in infrastructure globally over the
next 20 years (CG/LA Infrastructure 2008), the challenge
to integrate environmental considerations into investment
decisions is daunting. A set of principles for green investment
and other actors could consider establishing decentralized,

possibly open-access, web-based sustainability policy
banks to:
act as a repository of good practices for learning and
replication;
assist governments and stakeholders in identifying good
practices for their priority areas for intervention;
provide a forum for discussions on tailoring policies to
national needs; and
provide rosters of experts to assist in realistic applications
in particular countries and at sub-national levels.
Principles for greener investments. A financial strategy
could be built on a set of common principles, and a renewed
commitment could be made to meeting existing obligations
and creating sufficient and predictable funding to promote a
green economy and sustainable living. These norms would
serve to guide:
the greening of existing and new investments to
improve the environmental impacts and outcomes of all
investments, including mainstreaming the environment in
development expenditure;
raising additional resources for green investments through
new mechanisms such as green taxation; and
public-private partnerships that leverage private funding
sources while also addressing environmental objectives.
Establish a system for financial tracking. Regular reviews
and renewal of funding commitments would further evolve
private-public partnerships and scale up direct budget support
to ensure mainstreaming of the environment in development,
more effective participation in global processes and improved
analytical capacity.
by institutional investors, governments and international

bodies could accelerate the growing commitment to making
investments greener. Many of the policy instruments mentioned
above would deliver opportunities and benefits for both the
environment and the economy (Part 2).
Supporting technological innovation and development
Technology has a substantial role to play in the effort to meet the
most pressing global environmental challenges. Advanced and
environmentally sustainable technologies can help developing
economies leapfrog the resource-intensive, highly polluting
growth phase. This is not just about technologically advanced
solutions but also other adaptive ones. As technology systems
include not only the deployment of hardware but also knowledge
and know-how, lessons from traditional knowledge and practices
can also be shared and adapted (IPCC 2001). Increased domestic
capacity for innovation, including adapting existing technologies
to local conditions, is an important goal for many countries.
Global Responses
475
Technologies can help improve environmental performance along

the supply chain from resource extraction to manufacture and
transportation and more efficient, greener end-use equipment
for consumers. System-level technology links are often crucial
for transformative change. For example, the smart grid concept
aims to integrate electric vehicles, the power sector, information
management and consumers into a single network. Technologies
are also essential for successful adaptation to changing
environments, from drought-resilient seeds through efficient
methods of irrigation to flood defences.
But technologies and technological systems have a much
broader role in green transformation than direct mitigation and
adaptation. They play a key enabling role in such areas as remote
and onsite monitoring of environmental change; early warning
systems and new types of collaborative problem solving including
crowdsourcing. Social networks are also having a significant
but unpredictable impact on the environmental activity of
governments, non-governmental organizations and communities.
In all of these areas, the ability of individuals, companies and
institutions to absorb both new technologies and available finance
varies in the different national contexts of developing countries
(Ruggie 2008; Puustjarvi et al. 2003), making capacity building
and demonstration projects key enabling factors (WBCSD 2010).
Addressing the technology gap is at the fore of international
negotiations on responses to environmental challenges. Since
1990, developed countries have agreed to take all practicable
steps to encourage the transfer of green technologies and
know-how to developing countries. But this agenda has seen
slow progress, with persistent disagreements even about what
constitutes a technology transfer. The processes through which
Tranor PlanetSolar, the worlds largest solar powered boat topped

by 500 m3 of solar panels was the first solar electric vehicle to
circumnavigate the globe. Tatiana Kakhill/iStock
large-scale transfers should occur are not straightforward, given

that most technologies are owned by the private sector rather
than governments.
Some developing countries are critical of existing technology
transfer regimes due to the high transaction costs of obtaining
information or negotiating and acquiring technologies protected
by intellectual property rights, and a lack of clarity in defining
Box 17.7 Technology Mechanism at the UNFCCC

At the 2010 UN Climate Change Conference (COP 16) in
Cancn, Mexico, governments agreed to establish a Technology
Mechanism to facilitate technology cooperation and transfer.
It comprises an executive committee and a climate technology
centre and network.
The priorities for this mechanism include the development and
enhancement of the capacities and technologies of developing
countries; deployment and diffusion of environmentally sound
technologies and know-how; increased public and private
investment in technology development, deployment, diffusion
and transfer; strengthening of national systems of innovation
and technology innovation centres; and development and
implementation of national technology plans for mitigation and
adaptation. Further, it is hoped that the technology mechanism
will stimulate and encourage through collaboration
with the private sector, public institutions, academia and
research institutions the development and transfer of
476
existing and emerging environmentally sound technologies

and opportunities for North-South as well as South-South
technology cooperation.
In December 2011, governments adopted the modalities for
the Technology Mechanism at the 17th Conference of the
Parties in Durban. Since funding has always been a barrier to
technology transfer to developing countries, the Green Climate
Fund (GCF), newly established at Durban, could also help
speed up implementation of the goals set by the international
community to combat climate change, and promote a paradigm
shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development
pathways. Though the UNFCCC process has been a useful
forum to initiate global intergovernmental procedures to
foster global technology transfer, collaborative work with the
other multilateral environmental agreements, such as CBD,
is also imperative to ensure the development and transfer of
technologies for achieving other global environmental goals.
Box 17.8 Response option 4: Supporting technological innovation and development

Accelerating the innovation and diffusion of technologies
is a critical element of any holistic support framework that
seeks to encourage the uptake of environmentally sound
technologies in the transition to a global green economy.
This includes:
Collaborative R&D. Collaborative research for
environmentally sustainable technologies could be
coordinated between governments and the private sector
for early pre-competitive stages of technology system
development, before particular standards or industry value
chains become embedded in national economies and the
global industrial system, as happened in the semi-conductor
market. Model technology cooperation agreements could
take different levels of development and jurisdictional
requirements into account to limit the potential of patentrelated conflicts and to encourage joint development.
National laboratories could be twinned, or new ones set
up that are multilaterally managed and funded in pursuit
of agreed long-term technology objectives, ideally with the
participation of industry.
what is protected and what is not (Li and Correa 2009; Barton
2007; Hutchison 2006; Commission for Intellectual Property
Rights 2002). The impact of intellectual property (IP) rights on
the technological advancement of developing countries varies
according to the sector (Barton 2007), with countries like
China and India making significant advances in technological
development and acquisition despite the barriers (Puustjarvi
et al. 2003). Maskus (2010) argues that although patents and
IP rights may not in fact restrict access to environmentally
sustainable technologies, there may be needs for beneficial
differentiation in patent rights such as ex ante extensions of
patent terms tied to licensing commitments, expedited patent
examinations in environmentally sustainable technologies,
investments in patent transparency and landscaping efforts, and
facilitation of voluntary patent pools.
Technological innovation has the potential to reduce the cost of
achieving global environmental objectives (OECD 2010). The costs
of implementing green policies have often turned out to be far
lower than those projected, in part due to technological advances.
Investment in research and development (R&D) is mostly
undertaken by the private sector and is increasingly global in
nature, but government actions and public policy can help leverage
the power of markets to solve environmental challenges through
innovation. Efforts to increase the flow of technology to developing
countries and economies in transition include the UNFCCC decision
to create a new Technology Mechanism (Box 17.7).
International cooperation is needed to build and strengthen
innovation links between different sectors, especially between
Support for knowledge-sharing platforms. Collaborative

initiatives on agriculture and the environment, such as the
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
(CGIAR), demonstrate the potential of stakeholder advice
platforms and provide support for knowledge-sharing structures
at the regional level. These initiatives could be emulated
to scale up much needed environmentally sustainable
technologies.Existing and potential barriers to the development
and diffusion of such technologies could be assessed at the
sectoral level to create the most appropriate incentives.
Global prize funds to stimulate innovation on green
technologies. Prize funds and similar awards could be an
effective means of bridging innovation gaps, including
technologies to improve sustainability for the poor, as
demonstrated by some successes in the public health and
energy sectors. A range of global technology prizes could be
established to promote innovation in all areas that support
sustainability, especially for developing economies. Such
prize funds could function as a patent pool and/or a
repository for cross-licensing environmental technologies.
developed and developing economies. This is not least

because many transformative approaches involve complex
changes to technology systems and new forms of industrial
models that are yet to be demonstrated at scale. International
cooperative research could help pool development risks, share
information (OECD 2011b) and overcome barriers to privatesector investment. Yet innovation cooperation is primarily a
national activity, not an international one. A study of six clean
energy sectors points out that only 1.5 per cent of patents are
co-assigned, listing more than one company or institution as
co-owners, and only 2 per cent of these joint patents are shared
between developed and developing economy companies and
institutions (Lee et al. 2009).
Strengthening rights-based approaches and access to
environmental justice
Human and environmental rights can play a valuable role
in ensuring that governments stay on track in meeting
environmental goals and in providing safeguards against the
adoption of environmental policies that reduce human and
ecological well-being. Several important developments are
evident in environmental rights. Adverse impacts on human
health from environmental misuse are increasingly seen as
violations of the human right to life (Kravchenko and Bonine
2008). Further, globally agreed human rights frameworks
increasingly emphasize the intersection between human wellbeing and environmental health, as well as social-ecological
resilience (Campese et al. 2009; ICHRP 2008; Jeffery 2005;
Hunter et al. 2001), setting the basis for sustainability in
environmental decision making.
Global Responses
477
Aerial view of oil rigs in the Niger Delta, close to a village. Over recent decades, the delta has faced extensive environmental degradation,
undermining sustainable environmental management and the right to access to a clean environment. Eric Miller/Still Picturesock
The environmental aspects of the current human rights framework

are still too weak, however, to ensure that citizens are able to
protect their well-being and hold governments accountable. In
part, this is because environmental rights law at the global level
is predominately soft law, making it easy for states to avoid
their responsibility, with regional courts and judicial bodies not
always able to ensure that their decisions are put into effect.
For example, the decision of the African Commission on Human
Rights that pollution from oil exploration in the Niger Delta that
affects environmental quality and human health constitutes a
violation of the right to a clean environment in the African Charter
has never been put into effect. In contrast, implementation of the
1998 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in
Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters
the Aarhus Convention demonstrates that effective procedural
rights and state acceptance can be effective in protecting people
and the environment. Replicating this approach regionally or
globally is one option for giving effect to Rio Principle 10 by
both state (UNECE 2011) and non-governmental organizations
(Barreira 2012; UN-NGLS 2007). In 2011, the Meeting of the
Parties to the Convention adopted a decision encouraging
accession by states outside the UNECE region and a simplified
procedure for doing so, creating a pathway for propagating the
protection offered by this international environmental rights
treaty on a global scale (UNECE 2010).
Although environmental rights are widely recognized, full access
to justice at the national level can be difficult to implement.
The effectiveness of legal systems has been hindered by
local inability to access the courts, with a lack of financial
resources, distance from courts, and language barriers being key
478
challenges. Further, state entities do not always understand the

nature of their obligations under environmental and human rights
law (Serra and Tanner 2008). Global and regional investment in
strengthening these national systems by enhancing citizen and
state capacity could improve access to justice.
Despite its limitations, soft law can play a valuable role in
shifting the culture of environmental practice by providing a
basis for citizen advocacy, including claims for access to vital
livelihood resources such as land and water; for governments
to review their current practice; and for strengthening public
participation in environmental decision making, particularly
where citizens rights are affected. For example, with the
adoption of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of
Indigenous People (UNDRIP) (United Nations 2007), the United
Nations agreed that all its activities must be based on the
recognition of these rights.For example, the UN programme for
(UN-REDD) seeks to incorporate the UNDRIP rights into its
practice and policy by, among other action, giving effect to the
right to free prior informed consent. The recognition by the UN
General Assembly of the human right to water and sanitation
(Gupta et al. 2010) is another clear step forward to promote
human rights. At the national level, the 1992 Rio Declaration on
Environment and Development is widely accepted as a framework
for allocating rights and responsibilities between states and
citizens. Importantly, soft law can catalyse hard law agreements
the Aarhus Convention was negotiated in response to Principle
10 of the Rio Declaration (UNCED 1992).
Given current limitations within the human rights system,
there is a renewed debate on the merits and drawbacks of a
Box 17.9 Response option 5: Strengthening rights-based approaches and access to environmental justice
Recognize the links between human rights, environmental
rights and the responsibilities of states, which can set the
basis for better environmental performance where these rights
are incorporated in decision making. Improving understanding
of how this can be achieved through learning from best
practice at inter-state and inter-regional levels should be
facilitated. Existing human rights platforms could provide the
basis for dialogue between diverse actors, including states,
academics and communities, and strengthen and clarify
understanding.
Develop a global legal instrument, or a series of regional
instruments, to strengthen access to information, public
participation and access to justice in environmental matters,
based on Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration and taking into
consideration experience gained with the UNECE Aarhus
Convention (1998).
Create a shared legal normative basis for action. Globally,
a number of soft law norms have emerged to protect the
environment in an equitable and responsible manner. There is,
judicial system for the environment at the international level.

Options discussed range from an international court for the
environment to enhanced complaint mechanisms to turning
environmental and related equity rights into law (Klabbers et al.
2009). A number of models have been proposed as a template
for an International Court for the Environment (ICE), which could
function as a Court of First Instance for the International Court
of Justice, rendering decisions and/or advisory opinions, or
act as a specialized environmental tribunal in the spirit of the
Permanent Court of Arbitration, or could provide a combination
of negotiation, conciliation, arbitration and adjudication similar
to the Dispute Settlement Body of the WTO. Furthering the ICE,
the International Court for the Environment Coalition (2011)
proposed three characteristics for it:
the court or tribunal should have specialized environmental
judges or a process that addresses the current gaps between
international law and environmental science;
its standing should be offered to non-state actors, provided
the cases satisfied a materiality threshold, i.e. what is
considered relevant or material to a case; and
the court should incorporate the common law principle
of stare decisis, which would establish precedence in the
international environmental legal order.
Traditional adjudication, however, faces some significant
constraints, which could reduce the courts effectiveness in
resolving international resource disputes, such as those over
the use and sharing of natural resources. Analysis of the use of
adjudication by international courts and tribunals reveals four
categories of limitation:
however, a need for a legal process to promote the hardening

of these norms into legally binding rights and responsibilities
that would provide a shared legal normative basis for action.
Recognize and support the different kinds of dispute
resolution systems, including indigenous systems to ensure
that justice is delivered. Although a number of formal and
alternative dispute resolution systems are being developed in
different forums, and national courts are offering non-nationals
the right to seek adjudication on their environmental claims,
there is need for a process that recognizes and supports these
kinds of dispute resolution processes.
Establish a process for creating an international environmental
court to address violations of environmental standards.
Agreeing to a process for considering the establishment of an
international environmental court is an important first step in
improving dispute resolution. It is important to build on the
experience of existing judicial systems at the regional level and
within the human rights field, avoid duplication and ensure
sufficient human capacity and finance.
parties may refuse to submit to adjudication;

the judicial decision might not address the merits of the
dispute;
non-compliance is not punishable; and
recurrence of the dispute or conflict (Spain 2011).
These constraints can be overcome through the use of integrated
methods for dispute settlement and resolution. Ultimately,
however, successful resolution of international resource dispute
hinges on the availability of mechanisms judicial or otherwise
that allow for the active engagement of non-state actors
and for addressing the concerns of all parties with legitimacy,
fairness and speed.
Deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement
The complexity and varied nature of global environmental
challenges facing the international community today, as
demonstrated in Part 1, require a range of interventions beyond
action by public institutions. Many of the solutions described
in Part 2 also demand collective action by civil society, private
sector actors, the media and academic and research institutions.
The role of civil society actors in supporting global environmental
governance has evolved over the past 40 years to create groups
that operate from the local to the global level, offering means by
which to connect global policy to local action. Non-governmental
organizations tend to be more flexible than governments and
intergovernmental agencies, and can therefore offer swift support
for seeking and implementing solutions. They frequently have the
capacity to conduct in-depth research, collect and disseminate
Global Responses
479
Box 17.10 Social learning

Social learning comprises formal or informal processes to
share knowledge and lessons, at different levels and across
different communities, to support innovative problem solving
required for addressing unprecedented environmental change.
Social learning is as much about changes in relationships
and in individual and collective attitudes and mindsets as it
is about practical tools and institutional change to deal with
new challenges (Pahl-Wostl 2006). Platforms for social learning
include, for example, biotechnology citizens juries (Pimbert
2011), Oxfams climate dialogues and the United Nations
Human Rights Councils Social Forum.
Access to technology and information is vital, but not
sufficient, for effective social learning. Governance and the
dynamics of interaction between actors are important factors
that determine what knowledge and experience is shared
and how it is used. In order to be effective, collaborative
learning requires open communication, engagement outside
data, and support assessment and monitoring (Gemmill and

Bamidele-Izu 2002), together with awareness raising and public
mobilization. Similarly, academic institutions can offer unique
support for global responses by granting credibility through
scientific and technical support. Non-governmental organizations
and academic institutions together contribute to increasing
public participation, creating and maintaining knowledge
networks and facilitating the diffusion of knowledge and ideas
(Ramos 2009; Eriksson and Sundelius 2005; Stone and Maxwell
2005). The recently launched Global University Partnership
on Environment and Sustainability (GUPES), a UNEP-planned
established decision-making circles, consideration of multiple

kinds of knowledge, unrestrained thinking and self-reflection
(Woodhill 2010; Keen et al. 2005; Schulster et al. 2003).
At the global scale, social learning can be fostered by
facilitating institutional openness, multi-level governance both
horizontal and vertical, and dialogue between sectors as well
as between different communities. Specific options for a strong
global response to foster social learning include:
promoting actor and stakeholder learning networks SouthSouth, global inter-generational dialogues and private-public;
cross- and multi-actor participation in international
decision making such as Conferences of the Parties;
improved transparency and access to information;
support of experimentation and variation; and
improvement of monitoring and regular reviews of policies
and experiments using rigorous analysis and providing
rapid feedback on success or failure.
consultative, sharing and learning platform for university leaders

from developed and developing countries, offers a possible
model for collaboration between international organizations and
universities (UNEP 2011b).
As attempts to transition to a green economy advance, business
engagement in a variety of ways and at multiple scales can also
bring added value to global responses. The Montreal Protocol
offers an example of a successful international environmental
treaty, in which a critical element in the negotiations was
the inclusion of businesses and NGOs in drafting the treaty
The future in our hands: access to information and technology is vital; open communication and diffusion of knowledge with ever increasing public
participation can lead to collective action from global to local level and vice versa. Peeter Viisimaa/iStock
480
and supporting its implementation. In treating businesses

as collaborators rather than constituents, they can become
engaged in the problem, the strategy and the implementation
(Ivanova et al. 2007). Some also benefit from being first movers
in commercial terms. While the Montreal Protocol was relatively
limited in its scope and fairly straightforward in terms of policy
decisions, this strategy could offer useful lessons for other
agreements and initiatives.
Businesses have also taken the lead in developing private
certification schemes, which are an emerging approach to
environmental governance. Supply-chain management guidelines
have been effective in promoting sustainable practices in forestry
through the Forest Stewardship Council, and fisheries by the
Marine Stewardship Council (Auld et al. 2008; Cashore et al. 2004)
and for establishing broader global standards of corporate social
responsibility through the United Nations Global Compact (Ruggie
2001). Such efforts depend on proper institutional design that
includes legitimate third-party verification, supportive government
institutions at the national level, clear relationships between
the private sector and civil society and a public awareness of the
meaning of the codes. Schemes initially focused on one sector can
lead to similar approaches being applied in others, as public and
corporate awareness and experience develop. Similarly, national
schemes are sometimes scaled up to the regional or international
level. The dangers of voluntary approaches for environmental
policy, however, include their non-enforceability, poor monitoring
and a lack of transparency (OECD 1999).
Collaboration and engagement of sub-national authorities is
another important element of public participation. Cities, for
example, have embarked on environmental and sustainability
Vancouver, Canada, used the 2010 Winter Olympics to boost its efforts
to become a greener, more sustainable and more resilient city.
Amanda Mitchell
action of their own (Box 17.11). While bottom-up initiatives

such as these might not deliver the necessary degree of change,
the proactive measures provide channels for implementation,
engagement and feedback on the efficacy of policy (OttoZimmerman 2011).
Box 17.11 Cities and climate action

Many cities worldwide have begun to take climate action,
illustrating the important role that sub-national actors can play
in addressing global environmental problems. Most city efforts
thus far have focused on mitigation rather than adaptation
(Hoornweg et al. 2011), with more than 2000 cities now
committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions (ICLEI
2010). Their motivations for taking climate action is complex
and varied, typically reflecting frustration with the limited
progress in international negotiations and the desire of city
leaders to respond to citizens concerns.
Climate action by cities and sub-national regions has also
taken on a global dimension. Cities are increasingly acting in
concert and learning from one another, with little distinction
between North and South. Globally, the landscape of networks
and entities active in climate change adaptation and mitigation
at the city level is emerging but fragmented: these include
the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, ICLEI Local
Governments for Sustainability, the World Mayors Council
on Climate Change, the Covenant of Mayors and the Climate

Alliance in Europe, and the Climate Protection Agreement of
the United States Conference of Mayors.
Climate action by cities has increasingly been recognized by
national governments and at the international level. Although
the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol did not originally include
any explicit role for cities, this has been changing. The
16th Conference of the Parties in Cancun recognized local
governments as key governmental stakeholders in global climate
change efforts, with numerous references in Decision CP.16.
More recently, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability
has called for a framework of global environmental governance
that includes local and sub-national governments as part of
a multi-stakeholder system of collaborative policy setting,
implementation and accountability (Otto-Zimmerman 2011). The
European Union has also called for new governance modes that
foster social innovation and that adopt an holistic approach to
environmental and energy issues in cities (EC 2011).
Global Responses
481
Box 17.12 Response option 6: Deepening and broadening stakeholder engagement

Build a stakeholder web for sustainability. Non-state actors and
the private sector could be invited to explore how the modalities
of a stakeholder web could evolve by building on existing
structures and utilizing modern information and communication
technologies including social media. The web could help identify
issues on which the public sector may need to act in terms of
implementation of the Rio Declarations Principle 10 as it relates
to access to information and stakeholder engagement. Principle
10 could also act as a platform to mobilize new partnerships for
action towards implementing internationally agreed goals and
targets, such as a possible framework of sustainable development
goals and the transition towards an inclusive green economy.
Establish an inter-generational assembly. An intergenerational assembly could provide an opportunity for

future leaders and sustainability champions to interact
and foster a joint vision for a sustainable future. The idea
of the assembly could be taken up as part of the current
reform process, building on discussions at the UN Conference
on Sustainable Development. In terms of concrete outputs,
the assembly could also promote access to information
and shared accountability through innovative tools that
would support decision making, including a global database
of conceptual innovations in environmental governance
and management.
While the public sector is an essential agent in creating enabling

conditions for societal change, the private sector and civil society
are also core agents. The implementation of the Rio Declarations
Principle 10 could help further empower individuals, the private
sector and non-state actors in responding to environmental
problems. The principle, amongst others, recognizes that each
individual should have appropriate access to information about
the environment that is held by public authorities, and that
states should facilitate and encourage public awareness and
participation by making information widely available. Although
stakeholder participation in intergovernmental affairs and
public-private partnerships has evolved through, for example, the
Commission on Sustainable Development, a greater deepening
and broadening of stakeholder engagement, through using
modern information and communication technologies for example,
could make society better prepared to respond to the scale of
environmental change. Civil society and the private sector could
be invited to develop a stakeholder web for sustainability, building
on existing structures aimed at mobilizing action to implement
internationally agreed goals and targets.
commissioners for future generations who could operate

internationally, nationally or locally. This was advocated by
the World Commission on Environment and Development and
in some countries, Hungary for example, experiments are now
under way with ombudsmen who in national law have the
responsibility to safeguard social and environmental conditions
to the benefit of future generations.
Current decision-making processes tend to focus on the

short term to the probable detriment of future generations.
Explicit future orientation is an important element of adaptive
governance strategies for sustainable development and, while
foresight processes are a regular part of decision-making
processes (de Lattre-Gasquet 2009; Green and Stewart 2004),
broader mechanisms to help strengthen the voice of future
generations could be considered.
Five years on, it is clearer than ever that there is no global panacea
or single, overarching solution to environmental challenges.
Rather, collective action built around strategies, values,
principles, investments and measures, supported by a diverse
range of competencies and capacities, needs to be woven into
the fabric of nations, international society and its institutions.
Ultimately, the prospect for improving human well-being is
critically dependent on the capacity of individuals and countries
as well as the global community to respond through mitigation
and adaptation to environmental change. While the modalities
of multilateral cooperation need to be kept under review to ensure
their effectiveness, the key challenge of addressing capacity
issues in the developed and developing world remains.
Governments possess various options to strengthen the voice

of future generations at various levels (Brown Weiss 1992). They
can install an office that has responsibility for ensuring that the
interests of future generations are considered, for investigating
complaints and for providing warnings of emerging problems.
States could also give standing in their national courts and
administrative bodies to a representative of future generations,
who might function as a guardian. Another approach is to
designate an ombudsman for future generations or to appoint
482
CONCLUSION: RESPONDING TO EARTH SYSTEM

CHALLENGES
When the international community last took stock of the state of

the environment in 2007 as part of the GEO-4 process, promises
and recommendations were made to tackle the environmental
challenges. But neither the scope of environmental policy
nor the speed of its implementation has been sufficient.
Efforts to reduce the pressures from the underlying drivers
including enhanced resource efficiency and climate mitigation
measures may have resulted in moderate successes but have
fundamentally failed to reduce environmental problems on a
global scale.
As GEO-5 demonstrates, however, notwithstanding the

enormous challenges, there are great opportunities to scale
up policies that could help take the worlds citizens along
trajectories that begin to reverse negative environmental
Rio de Janeiro, host to the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development. Zxvisual/iStock
trends, and that address the inequalities and inadequacies

of the institutional frameworks within which human society
operates. It is also imperative for the international community
to invest in solutions that will help tackle the root causes, not
merely the symptoms, of environmental degradation, from
fundamental shifts in values through the design and structure
of institutions to innovative policy frameworks. Modified to
reflect the global scale, a systematic and comprehensive
results-based global approach could be anchored in the six
response options outlined in this chapter.
The 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable
Development (Rio+20) provides an opportunity for the
international community to take stock, assess achievements
and shortcomings, and stimulate transformative global
responses. It is also an opportunity for the international
community, from individual member states to the United
Nations, to demonstrate political leadership in tackling these
complex challenges. This chapter has identified a number of
response options that together could help society address the
problems of global environmental change. While these do not
guarantee success, they expose, clearly and systematically,
whether or not progress is being made. In addition, evaluation
and collective learning could enable the identification
of barriers to implementation. This, in turn, could inform

adjustments and adaptive management as part of a larger,
systemic approach to global governance.
Integrated governance of socio-ecological systems must be
cross-sectoral, cross-scale, and across time. Authority and
accountability must be dispersed to the appropriate level of
decision-making subsidiarity while including a broad set of
actors beyond the state and enhancing their capacity.
At the global level, it remains a daunting challenge to design
and implement effective measures that can motivate citizens,
companies, institutions, networks and governments to cooperate
and deliver ambitious policies and action. Highlighting the
rewards of cooperation and shared purpose could embolden
efforts to overcome barriers and past trajectories, reversing
unsustainable trends that that were once considered
insurmountable. The rewards of progress are often obscured
against a landscape fraught with challenges and inequities.
In the end, openness to possibility reflecting the optimism,
creativity and potential of young people around the world and
investing in an environment in which multiple sustainable and
desirable solutions can emerge, would probably be the most
effective, and meaningful, global response.
Global Responses
483
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The GEO-5 Process

Contributors
Glossary
Index
There is a huge amount to be done if we are to reach a state of sustainability.

Do not despair, do not be weighed down by it. All I ask of you is that you go home
and do what you can.
Wangari Maathai (1940-2011), Nobel Lauriate.
The GEO-5 Process

MANDATE
In February 2009, as part of UNEPs overall mandate to keep

the global environment under review, the 25th Session of the
UNEP Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum
reconfirmed the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) mandate,
requesting the Executive Director to:
continue to conduct a comprehensive, integrated and
scientifically credible global environmental assessment,
avoiding duplication and building on ongoing assessment
work, to support decision-making processes at all levels, in
the light of the continuing need for up-to-date, scientifically
credible, policy-relevant information on environmental
change worldwide, including analyses of cross-cutting
issues and indicator-based components
and to:
strengthen the policy relevance of GEO-5 by including an
analysis of case studies of policy options, that incorporates
environmental, economic, social and scientific data and
information and their indicative costs and benefits to
identify promising policy options to speed up achievement
of the internationally agreed goals such as those agreed
at the Millennium Summit in 2000 and in Multilateral
Environmental Agreements (UNEP/GC.25/2/III) (http://
www.unep.org/gc/gc25/Docs/Proceedings-English.pdf).
Support for the fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5) was
further approved in November 2011 by the United Nations
General Assembly 2nd Committee (Economic and Financial)
(resolution A/C.2/66/L.57) (http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/
UNDOC/LTD/N11/601/65/PDF/N1160165.pdf).
OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND PROCESS
The objectives, scope and process for GEO-5 were defined and
adopted in a Final Statement by the Global Intergovernmental
and Multi-stakeholder Consultation that took place in March
2010 and included 91 governmental representatives and 55
other main stakeholders.
Objectives
The consultation reaffirmed the above mandate by identifying

the following objectives for the assessment:
provide a comprehensive, integrated and scientifically
credible global environmental assessment to support
decision-making processes at appropriate levels;
engage all governments, relevant UN bodies, and other
stakeholders in GEO-5 in order to support and strengthen
its scientific credibility, policy relevance and legitimacy;
strengthen the on-going process of capacity building
for developing countries and countries with economies
in transition to conduct environmental monitoring and
assessments at all levels, in collaboration with relevant

on-going activities of UNEP and other initiatives, including
through south-south and triangular cooperation;
inform, as appropriate, the strategic directions of UNEP and
other relevant UN bodies;
strengthen the policy relevance of GEO-5 by including an analysis
of case studies of policy options, that incorporates environmental,
economic, social and scientific data and information and their
indicative costs and benefits to identify promising policy options
to speed up achievement of the internationally agreed goals
such as those agreed at the Millennium Summit in 2000 and in
multilateral environmental agreements;
inform and learn from relevant global and regional processes
and meetings where progress towards these agreed goals
is discussed; and
identify data gaps in the thematic issues considered by GEO-5.
Scope
GEO-5 builds on previous GEO reports and continues to provide

an analysis of the state, trends and outlook of the global
environment. It differs from previous GEO reports in its emphasis
on internationally agreed goals and in providing possible means
of accelerating achievement of those goals. GEO-5 is made up of
three distinct but closely linked parts.
Part 1 assesses the state and trends of the global environment
in relation to key internationally agreed goals such as the
Millennium Development Goals and those of various multilateral
environmental agreements. The assessment is based on national,
regional and global analyses and datasets.
Part 2 prioritizes a number of environmental themes per region,
selected through a consultative process in light of relevant
internationally agreed goals. The regional assessments identify
and appraise promising policy responses that could help speed
up the achievement of these goals.
Part 3 identifies options with potential to assist the transition
towards sustainable development and suggests possibilities for
global response.
The consultation proposed ten key questions for UNEP to
address. To a great extent, these questions helped define the
scope of the GEO-5 assessment and to guide the process.
Key questions for Part 1
i. What are the current drivers, state and trends and outlook
for the global environment?
ii. Do the current drivers, state and trends of the
environment reflect progress towards meeting
internationally agreed goals?
iii. What are the main challenges for the life-supporting functions
of the Earth System and the drivers that cause them?
The GEO-5 Process
489
iv. To what extent do existing monitoring and observation

activities and institutional arrangements meet the need to
keep the state and trends of the environment under review?
v. What are the main gaps and barriers to meeting the
agreed goals?
vi. Which internationally agreed goals are high priorities for
each region?
vii. What policy options can be most successfully applied
in each region to help speed up meeting internationally
agreed goals?
viii. What policy options facilitate environmental monitoring
and its use in decision making?
ix. What policy approaches could be suitable for scaling up in
order to accelerate meeting internationally agreed goals?
x. What types of sustainable change and innovation are
needed over the long term?
Process
The March 2010 consultation also provided direction for

strengthening the process of the GEO-5 assessment through:
engaging the best available scientific and policy expertise;
ensuring scientific credibility, policy relevance, and legitimacy
of the assessment by engaging a wide range of stakeholders;
constituting multidisciplinary groups of experts nominated by
governments and other stakeholders using a transparent process;
establishing three overarching advisory groups: a HighLevel Intergovernmental Advisory Panel to provide guidance
to experts; a Science and Policy Advisory Board to ensure
the scientific credibility of the process; and a Data and
Indicators Working Group to provide core data support to
the process;
subjecting the assessment to extensive scientific expert peerreview and government review;
continuing to target institutional capacity building by engaging
developing country experts; and
communicating key messages and findings to target
audiences in an accessible manner.
PARTNERSHIPS AND COLLABORATION
The development of GEO-5 involved extensive collaboration

both within UNEP and between UNEP and a network of
multidisciplinary experts, research institutions and GEO
collaborating centres, all of whom made their valuable time and
knowledge available to the process.
The consultation requested that experts for content
development, including reviewers and advisory groups, be
nominated by governments and other main stakeholders
including GEO collaborating centres and other partners, based on
their expertise and using a transparent process drawing from the
nomination process of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The nominated experts were then engaged by
the UNEP Secretariat on the basis of their expertise, with due
consideration of gender and regional balances.
Figure 1 The development of GEO-5: milestones in the production process
2010
1st Intergovernmental
and Multi-stakeholder
Consultation
High-Level Intergovernmental
Advisory Panel established
Nomination
of experts
1st meeting of
High-Level
Intergovernmental
Advisory Panel
Regional
consultations
Selection
of experts
(Author groups)
Data and Indicators

Working Group
established
Science and Policy

Advisory Board
established
Annotated
Outlines
1st Science
and Policy
Advisory
Board
meeting
1st Production
meeting
Internal
reviews
Author working
group meetings
DRAFT ZERO
Preparatory Phase
490
The GEO-5 Process
Content Development
Chapter expert groups
The GEO-5 report has 17 chapters. An expert working group was

established for each chapter to conceptualize, research, draft,
revise and finalize the manuscripts. More than 310 authors
were involved in content development. Each chapter expert
group included 538 individuals under the leadership of two
or three coordinating lead authors and supported by a UNEP
chapter coordinator. Other members of the chapter expert groups
comprised lead authors and contributing authors.
GEO-5 fellows
GEO-5 continued to pursue the Fellowship initiative established

during the GEO-4 process in 2005. This engages early career
professionals in the GEO process so that they can gain experience
from participating in a major global environmental assessment. A
total of 21 fellows from 18 countries participated in GEO-5.
Outreach working group
An outreach working group was established that included one

member of each chapter expert group as well as UNEP experts.
The group prepared the overarching outreach strategy for GEO-5
and identified target audiences and relevant meetings to
disseminate findings.
REVIEW PROCESS
The GEO-5 assessment underwent three rounds of review involving

more than 300 experts. The first was an internal one within UNEP;
the second was an external review by governments and UNEPs
extensive network of science and policy experts, including those
nominated by governments and other stakeholders. The final

review was undertaken by governments and well-known scientific
experts from both the natural and social science communities.
The final round of expert review was an independent peer-review
process facilitated by the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
The ESSP sent a call for reviewers to its global expert network and
then selected interested experts based on their field as well as
gender and geographical balance. In the final expert peer review,
each chapter had three to four expert scientific reviewers with
extensive experience in the subject area covered by the respective
chapter. The content development process and all review stages
were supported by the Science and Policy Advisory Board who
provided guidance to chapter authors, reviewers and the UNEP
Secretariat to ensure that the process was scientifically credible
and robust.
GEO-5 advisory groups
Three external specialized advisory bodies were established to

support the assessment process.
High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel
The panel comprised 20 high-level government representatives
from all six UNEP regions. The panel, using the Global
Environmental Goals framework (for more detail see http:/geg.
informea.org/goals), identified the internationally agreed goals for
GEO-5 to assess, and formulated strategic advice to GEO-5 authors
and other groups to assist them in their assessment of the goals.
They also provided initial guidance on the structure and content
of the GEO-5 Summary for Policy Makers and further guidance
2011
2012
1st External
review
2nd meeting of
High-Level
Intergovernmental
Advisory Panel
Part One
harmonization
meeting
DRAFT ONE
and Review Phase
2nd Science and

Policy Advisory
Board meeting
2nd External
review
2nd
Production
meeting
DRAFT TWO
F
Final editing,
QA and
proofing
SPM Launch at
12th of
GC/GMEF
Special Session
3rd meeting of
High-Level
Intergovernmental
Advisory Panel
DRAFT THREE
Final Inter-sessional
meeting of UNCSD
Secretariat
Design and layout
Rio+20
GEO-5
Launch
Intergovernmental
meeting to endorse SPM
Author sign-o
Production Phase
The GEO-5 Process
491
to the experts in finalizing the draft in preparation for the final

intergovernmental negotiation. In addition, ad-hoc guidance was
provided to UNEP throughout the assessment process, in particular
in aligning the GEO-5 process with the relevant processes of the
2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development
(Rio+20). The panel met three times in 2010 and 2011.
Science and Policy Advisory Board
The board comprised 18 distinguished scientists and senior
representatives from the policy community and met twice in
2011. The board was responsible for strengthening the scientific
credibility and policy relevance of the assessment by providing
guidance throughout the process. They provided high-level
strategic advice; standards and guidelines for the assessment
and review process; and undertook a mid-term and final
evaluation of the assessment process.
Data and Indicators Working Group
The group met once in March 2011 and provided support to the
assessment process on the use of core datasets and indicators.
They consulted with experts to identify priority environmental
indicators and identified available datasets, as well as data gaps
and related issues.
CONSULTATION PROCESS
UNEP organized global and regional consultations and meetings

throughout the assessment process. The following are some of the
key meetings convened since the inception in November 2009.
GEO-5 planning meetings
Two planning meetings were convened with experts familiar
with the GEO process, including UNEPs GEO specialists, in
November 2009 and January 2010. The meetings focused on
reviewing lessons learned from the previous GEO processes and
the implementation of Governing Council Decision 25/2/III.
The experts formulated UNEPs analytical framework and a
vision of the future global assessment to propose to the Global
Intergovernmental and Multi-stakeholder Consultation on GEO-5.
Global Intergovernmental and Multi-stakeholder Consultation
This consultation defined and adopted the scope, objectives and
process for GEO-5 in March 2010.
Regional consultations
A series of seven regional consultations were held between
September and October 2010. The consultations, which
engaged many different stakeholders, determined five or six
priority environmental challenges in each region and selected
internationally agreed goals of relevant concern, as well as
identifying potential policy options in the region, implementation
of which could speed up meeting the selected goals.
Policy expert meeting
In October 2010 a policy expert group, including one policy
expert from each region nominated to participate in the GEO-5
regional policy analysis, as well as several independent policy
experts, was convened to discuss the challenge of policy analysis
in the context of identifying policies that help speed up the
492
The GEO-5 Process
Participants at the intergovernmental meeting to endorse the GEO-5

Summary for Policy Makers in Gwangju, Republic of Korea.
attainment of internationally agreed goals. The policy expert

group provided guidelines for the regional policy analysis.
Global production and authors meetings
Two global production and authors meetings were convened
in November 2010 and in September 2011 to discuss and
develop GEO-5 chapter content and outlines, to address
review comments, and to harmonize different approaches and
presentation styles.
Chapter working group meetings
More than 30 meetings were convened to prepare, review and
revise the drafts for individual chapters.
Summary for Policy Makers intergovernmental meeting
A final open-ended intergovernmental meeting was convened
in January 2012 in the City of Gwangju, Republic of Korea, to
negotiate and endorse the GEO-5 Summary for Policy Makers
(SPM). The meeting, attended by 53 governments, endorsed the
summary, which presents the policy-relevant findings of GEO-5
and is published as a separate document. The GEO-5 Summary
for Policy Makers was launched at the 12th Special Session of
the Governing Council/Global Ministerial Environment Forum in
February 2012.
The launch of GEO-5 will coincide with the final preparatory stages
of the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20), taking
place two decades after the UN Conference on Environment and
Development (Rio Earth Summit) set the agenda for the transition
to sustainable development. GEO-5 highlights the current state,
trends and outlook for the planet and its people, and showcases
more than 100 initiatives, projects and policies that are pioneering
positive environmental change across the globe.
GEO-5 highlights not just the perils of delaying action, but the options
for transforming sustainable development from theory to reality.
Further information is available at www.unep.org/geo

3Rs
4Rs
ABC
ABS
ACCOBAMS
ACP
ACC
ACS
ACSAD
ACTO
ADFEC
ADB
AEM
AEWA
AHTEG
AICS
AIDS
ALR
AMAP
AMCs
AMCEN
ANAM
AOAD
APVMA
AQG
ASCLME
ASCOBANS
ASEAN
ATS
AZEs
BBOP
BC
BCLME
BFP
BPA
BRIC
CAA
CAC
CAFE
CAN
CAP
CAPRADE
CAR
CARICOM
CAS
reduce, reuse, recycle

reduce, reuse, recycle and re-think
atmospheric brown cloud
access and benefit sharing
Agreement on the Conservation of Cetaceans
of the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and
contiguous Atlantic Area
Panama Canal Authority
adaptation to climate change
Association of Caribbean States
Arab Center for Studies of Arid Zones and Dry
Lands
Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization
Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company
Asian Development Bank
agri-environment measures
African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbird Agreement
Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group
Australian Inventory of Chemical Substances
acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Agricultural Land Reserve (Canada)
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
advanced market commitments
African Ministerial Conference on the Environment
National Environmental Authority of Panama
Arab Organization for Agricultural Development
Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines
Authority
air quality guidelines
Agulhas and Somali Current Large Marine
Ecosystems
Agreement on the Conservation of Small
Cetaceans of the Baltic, North East Atlantic,
Irish and North Seas
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Antarctic Treaty System
Alliance for Zero Extension sites
Business and Biodiversity Offsets Programme
black carbon
Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Bolsa Floresta Programme
bisphenol-A
Brazil, Russia, India and China
Clean Air Act (United States)
command and control
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (United States)
Andean Community
Common Agricultural Policy of the EU
Andean Committee for Disaster Awareness and
Prevention
1) Central African Republic, or
2) Central Albertine Rift
Caribbean Common Market
1) complex adaptive systems, or
2) Chemicals Abstract Service
CBD
CBNRM
CBR
CCAD
CCCCC
CDC
CDM
CDEMA
CEB
CEC
CEPA
CEHI
CEPREDENAC
CFC
CFU
CGIAR
CH4
CITES
CLRTAP
CMC
CMP
CMS
CO
CO2
CONAVI
COP
COSEWIC
CRED
CRP
CSA
CSCL
CSD
CSP
CSIRO
CSO
CSRP
CZMU
DAC
DALY
DDT
DESA
DEWA
Convention on Biological Diversity (UN)

Community Based Natural Resources Management
crude birth rate
Central American Commission on Environment
and Development
Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
(United States)
Clean Development Mechanism
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management
Agency
Chief Executive Board for Coordination (UN)
Commission for Environmental Cooperation
(under NAFTA)
Canadian Environmental Protection Act
Caribbean Environmental Health Institute
Centre for Natural Disaster Awareness and
Prevention
chlorofluorocarbon
community forest unit
Consultative Group on International Agricultural
Research
methane
Convention on International Trade in
Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution
Chemical Management Center
Chemicals Management Plan
Convention on the Conservation of Migratory
Species of Wild Animals
carbon monoxide
carbon dioxide
Comisin Nacional de Vivienda
conference of the parties
Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters
Conservation Reserve Program (United States)
environmental services certificates
Chemical Substance Control Law
Commission on Sustainable Development
Conservation Security Program (United States)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (Australia)
civil society organisation
Sub-regional Fisheries Commission
Coastal Zone Management Unit (Barbados)
Development Assistance Committee (OECD)
disability adjusted life year
dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN)
1) Division of Early Warning and Assessment
(UNEP), or
2) Dubai Electricity and Water Authority
493
DPSIR
DRC
DRR
EA
EAC
EAF
EAP
EBA
ECESA
ECHA
ECLAC
ECOWAS
EE
EEA
EC
EU
EIA
EIONET
EKC
EM-DAT
EMEP
EMG
ENRM
EPA
ERS
ERMA
EQIP
ES
ESA
ESI
ESS
ETS
EU
EUROBATS
Ex-COPs
EWS
FAO
FDI
FIBA
FIT
FIT-FIR
FLORES
FON
FONAFIFO
FONAG
494
drivers, pressures, state, impacts, responses

Democratic Republic of the Congo
disaster risk reduction
ecosystem approach
East African Community
ecosystem approach to fisheries
Environmental Action Programme of the EU
ecosystem based adaptation
Executive Committee on Economic and Social
Affairs (UN)
European Chemicals Agency
Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean of the United Nations
Economic Community of West African States
energy efficiency
European Environment Agency
European Commission
European Union
1) Energy Information Association, or
2) environmental impact assessment
European Environment Information and
Observation Network
environmental Kuznets curve
Emergency Events Database
European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme
Environment Management Group
Environmental and Natural Resources
Management (World Bank)
1) environmental performance assessment, or
2) Environmental Protection Agency (United States)
Economic Research Service (United States)
Environmental Risk Management Authority
Environmental Quality Incentives Program
(United States)
Earth System
1) environmentally sensitive area, or
2) European Space Agency
environmental services index
Earth system science
emissions trading scheme
European Union
Agreement on the Conservation of Populations
of European Bats
Extraordinary Conferences of the Parties to the
Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm Conventions
early warning system
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations
foreign direct investment
Fondation Internationale du Banc dArguin
feed-in tariff
first-in-time, first-in-right (or the Doctrine of
Prior Appropriation)
Forest Land Oriented Resources Envisioning
System
Friends of Nature
Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento Forestal
Fund for the Protection of Water
FSC Forest Stewardship Council

G7 Group of Seven (Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States)
G8 Group of Eight (Canada, France, Germany,
Italy, Japan, Russian Federation, United
Kingdom, United States)
GAPS Global Atmospheric Passive Sampling
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GCF Green Climate Fund
GCLME Guinea Current Large Marine Ecosystem
GCM general circulation models
GCP gross cell product
GDP gross domestic product
GEF Global Environment Facility
GEMS Global Environmental Monitoring System
GEO Global Environment Outlook
GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems
GESAMP Group of Experts on Scientific Aspects of
Marine Environmental Protection
GHG greenhouse gas
GIS geographical information systems
GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GLASOD Global Assessment of Human-Induced Soil
Degradation
GM Global Mechanism
GMO genetically modified organism
GNP gross national product
GPA Global Programme of Action for the Protection
of the Marine Environment from Land-based
Activities
GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project
GPI genuine progress indicator
GPW Gridded Population of the World
GUPES Global University Partnership on Environment
and Sustainability
GW gigawatt
GWP 1) Global Water Partnership, or
2) global warming potential
GWSP Global Water System Project
HAB harmful algal blooms
HCFC hydrochlorofluorocarbon
HCH hexachlorocyclohexane
HDI Human Development Index
HFA Hyogo Framework for Action
HFC hydrofluorocarbon
HIV human immunodeficiency virus
HKHT Hindu Kush-Himalayan-Tibetan
HLCP High Level Committee on Policy
HLIAP High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel
HS Harmonized System
HTAP hemispheric transport of air pollution
HWS human water security
IAEG Inter-agency and Expert Group
IATTC Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission
IBA important bird area
ICARM integrated coastal and river management
ICCA indigenous and community-conserved areas
ICE
ICHRP
ICLEI
ICLZT
ICRISAT
ICT
ICZM
IDB
IDMC
IEA
IFAD
IFPRI
IGRAC
IIASA
IISD
IJC
ILBM
ILC
ILEC
ILM
ILO
IMO
IMPACT
INBO
INVERMAR
IOC
IOMC
IP
IPA
IPA CIS
IPAT
IPBES
IPCC
IPR
IPSI
IPSRM
IRP
ISDR
ISEW
ITPGRFA
ITF
IUCN
IWI
IWM
IWRM
JHU
International Court for the Environment

International Council on Human Rights Policy
Local Governments for Sustainability
integrated rotating crops, livestock production
and zero-tillage operations
International Crop Research Institute for the
Semi-Arid Tropics
information and communication technology
integrated coastal zone management
Inter-American Development Bank
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
1) International Energy Agency, or
2) integrated environmental assessment
International Fund for Agricultural Development
International Food Policy Research Institute
International Groundwater Resources
Assessment Centre
International Institute for Applied System Analysis
International Institute for Sustainable Development
International Joint Commission
integrated lake basin management
indigenous and local communities
International Lake Environment Committee
1) integrated land management, or
2) indigenous land management
International Labour Organization
International Maritime Organization
International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade
International Network of Basin Organizations
Invertec Pesquera Mar de Chilo
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
of UNESCO
Inter-organizational Programme for the Sound
Management of Chemicals
intellectual property
indigenous protected area
Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the
Commonwealth of Independent States
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
intellectual property rights
International Partnership on Satoyama Initiative
International Panel for Sustainable Resource
Management
integrated resource planning
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare
International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources
for Food and Agriculture
International Transport Forum
International Union for the Conservation of Nature
International Watersheds Initiative (North America)
integrated watershed planning and management
integrated water resources management
Johns Hopkins University (United States)
JPOI
JPoI
JRC
LAC
LAS
LECZ
LDC
LDCF
LEZ
LIFDC
LME
LPG
LRTAP
MA
MAP
MARPOL
M&E
MDG
MDTF
MEA
MERCOSUR
MMWD
MFA
MINAM
MMAs
MPA
MSC
MSW
N2O
NAAEC
NAFA
NAFTA
NAMA
NASA
NBI
NBSAP
NEG/ECP
NEPA
NEPA
NEPAD
NEPAD CAADP
NERC
NPP
NGO
NH3
NHX

Joint Plan of Implementation
European Commission Joint Research Centre
League of Arab States
low elevation coastal zone
1) least developed country, or
2) London Dumping Convention: Convention
on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by
Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter
Least Developed Countries Trust Fund
low emission zone
low-income food deficit countries
large marine ecosystem
liquefied petroleum gas
long-range transboundary air pollution
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Mediterranean Action Plan for the Barcelona
Convention
International Convention for the Prevention of
Pollution From Ships
monitoring and evaluation
Millennium Development Goal
Multi-Donor Trust Funds (UN)
multilateral environmental agreement
Mercado Comn del Sur
Marin Municipal Water District
material flow accounting
Portal del Ministerio del Ambiente del Per
marine managed area
marine protected area
Marine Stewardship Council
municipal solid waste
nitrous oxide
North American Agreement on Environmental
Cooperation
National Forest Authority
North American Free Trade Agreement
nationally appropriate mitigation actions
National Aeronautics Space Administration
(United States)
Nile Basin Initiative
national biodiversity strategies and action plans
New England Governors/Eastern Canadian
Premiers
National Environment Policy Act (United States)
National Environmental Protection Agency (China)
New Partnership for Africas Development
NEPAD Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme
1) National Energy Research Center (Jordan;
Syria), or
2) Natural Environment Research Council
(United Kingdom)
net primary productivity
non-governmental organization
ammonia
ammonia and ammonium
495
NHANES National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

NICNAS National Industrial Chemicals Notification and
Assessment Scheme
NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration (United States)
NOWPAP Action Plan for the Protection, Management
and Development of the Marine and Coastal
Environment of the Northwest Pacific Region
NO2 nitrogen dioxide
NOX nitrogen oxides
NPRI National Pollutant Release Inventory (Canada)
NRTEE National Roundtable on the Economy and the
Environment
NMVOCs non-methane volatile organic compounds
O3 ozone
OCP organochlorine pesticides
ODA official development assistance
ODS ozone-depleting substance
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development
OP obsolete pesticide
OPRC International Convention on Oil Pollution
Preparedness, Response and Cooperation
OPT Occupied Palestinian Territories
OSPAR Convention for the Protection of the Marine
Environment of the North-East Atlantic
PA protected area
PAEC Cuban Energy Saving Programme
PAH polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
PBDE polybrominated diphenyl ethers
PCB polychlorinated biphenyls
PCT polychlorinated terphenyls
PERI Political Economy Research Institute,
Univeristy of Massachusetts (United States)
PES payment for ecosystem services
PM particulate matter
PM2.5 particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5
micrometres (0.0025millimetre) or less
PM10 particulate matter with a diameter of 10
micrometres (0.01millimetre) or less
POPs persistent organic pollutants
PPCDAm Action Plan for Protection and Control of
Deforestation in the Amazon
PPP purchasing power parity
PROCEL Programa Nacional de Conservao de energia
elctrica (National Electrical Conservation
Programme) (Brazil)
PSP paralytic shellfish poisoning
PTC production tax credit
QSAR quantitative structure-activity relationships
R&D research and development
RAFNET Rwanda Agro-forestry Network
RCP representative concentration pathways
REACH Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation
and Restriction of Chemical substances
programme (EU)
RE renewable energy
REC renewable energy credits
496
REFIT renewable energy feed-in-tariff

RES renewable energy systems
REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation
REMP renewable energy master plan
REMPEC Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response
Centre for the Mediterranean Sea
ROPME Regional Organization for the Protection
of the Marine Environment of the sea area
surrounded by Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait,
Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates
RPBR Ro Pltano Biosphere Reserve (Honduras)
RPS Renewable Portfolio Standard
RWH rainwater harvesting
SADC Southern African Development Community
SAICM Strategic Approach to International Chemicals
Management
SCBD Secretariat of the Convention on Biological
Diversity
SCCF Special Climate Change Trust Fund
SEA strategic environmental assessment
SFM sustainable forest management
SEEA System of Environmental-Economic Accounting
SEMARNAT Secretara de Medio Ambiente y Recursos
Naturales
SICA Sistema de la Integracin Centroamericana
(Central America Integration System)
SIDS small island developing states
SLCF short-lived climate forcer
SLM sustainable land management
SNACs Significant New Activity Controls
SNS sacred natural sites
SNURs Significant New Use Rules
SOE state owned enterprises
SoE state of the environment
SOER State of the Environment Report of the EEA
SOX sulphur oxides
SO2 sulphur dioxide
SPB sustainability policy banks
STAR System for the Transparent Allocation of
Resources
SST sea surface temperature
SWF Sovereign Wealth Funds
TCO traditional communal lands
TBNRM transboundary natural resources management
TEAP Technology and Economic Assessment Panel
(the Montreal Protocol)
TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
TEK traditional ecological knowledge
TEU twenty-foot-equivalent units
TFCA transfrontier conservation areas
TK traditional knowledge
TM technology mechanism
TMDL total maximum daily load
TRI Toxics Release Inventory (United States)
TRIPs trade-related aspects of international property
rights
TSCA
UK
UN
UNCCD
UNCED
UNCLOS
UNCSD
UNCTAD
UNDG
UNDP
UNDRIP
UNECE
UNEP
UNEP-CEP
UNEP-PCFV
UNEP-WCMC
UNESCO
UNFCCC
UNFF
UNHCR
UNICEF
UNIDO
UNITAR
Toxic Substances Control Act (United States)

United Kingdom
United Nations
United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification
United Nations Conference on Environment
and Development
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
United Nations Commission on Sustainable
Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development
United Nations Development Group
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Declaration on the Rights of
Indigenous Peoples
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Caribbean Environment Programme
Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles
World Conservation Monitoring Centre
United Nations Educational, Scientific and
Cultural Organization
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change
United Nations Forum on Forests
The United Nations Refugee Agency
United Nations Childrens Fund
United Nations Industrial Development
Organization
United Nations Institute for Training and Research
UN-REDD United Nations collaborative initiative on

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
forest Degradation in Developing Countries
UNSD United Nations Statistics Division
UNU United Nations University
UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organization
USA United States of America
USAID United States Agency for International
Development
US EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency
UV ultraviolet
VITEK vitality of traditional ecological knowledge
VOC volatile organic compound
vPvB very persistent and very bioaccumulative
WAIS West Antarctic ice sheet
WCI Western Climate Initiative (North America)
WFD Waste Framework Directive of the EU
WHO World Health Organization
WIO Western Indian Ocean
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WRI World Resources Institute
WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development
WTO World Trade Organization
WTP willingness to pay
WUE water-use efficiency
WWAP World Water Assessment Programme
WWDR World Water Development Report
WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable
Development
WCRP World Climate Research Programme
WFP World Food Programme (United Nations)
WHC World Heritage Convention
WWF World Wide Fund for Nature
ZZE economic and ecological zoning
497
Contributors
GEO-5 Author teams
Chapter 1 Drivers: Susana B. Adamo, Columbia University, USA; Jane Barr,
independent expert, Canada; David Laborde Debucquet, International
Food Policy Research Institute, USA; Elizabeth R. Desombre, Wellesley
College, USA; Thomas Dietz, Michigan State University, USA; Matthew
Gluschankoff, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA; Konstadinos
Goulias, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA; Jason Jabbour, UNEP,
Kenya; Yeojoo Kim, Korea Environment Institute, Republic of Korea; Marc
A. Levy, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, USA;
David Lpez-Carr, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA; Catherine
P. McMullen, independent consultant, Canada; Alexandra C. Morel, Centre
for International Earth Science Information Network, USA; Ana Rosa
Moreno, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico; Siwa Msangi,
International Food Policy Research Institute, USA; Matthew Paterson,
University of Ottawa, Canada; Batimaa Punsalmaa, Water Authority,
Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia; Eugene A. Rosa,
Washington State University, USA; Paul F. Steinberg, Harvey Mudd College,
USA; Ray Tomalty, McGill University, Canada; Craig Townsend, Johns
Hopkins University, USA.
Chapter 2 Atmosphere: May Antoniette Ajero, Clean Air Initiative-Asia
Center, Philippines; Susan Casper Anenberg, US Environmental Protection
Agency, USA; Paulo Artaxo, University of So Paulo, Brazil; Geir Braathen,
World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland; Luis Abdon Cifuentes,
Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Chile; Lisa Emberson, Stockholm
Environment Institute, UK; Sara Feresu, University of Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe;
Kevin Hicks, Stockholm Environment Institute, UK; Msafiri Jackson, Ardhi
University, Tanzania; Johan C. I. Kuylenstierna, Stockholm Environment
Institute, UK; Yousef Meslmani, Atomic Energy Commission, Syria; Nicholas
Muller, Middlebury College, USA; Frank Murray, Murdoch University,
Australia; Seydi Ababacar Ndiaye, Labo de Physique et de lAtmosphre
et de lOcan, Senegal; Emily Nyaboke (GEO Fellow), Intergovernmental
Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre,
Kenya; Nguyen Thi Kim Oanh, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand; T.S.
Panwar, The Energy and Resources Institute, India; Linn Persson, Stockholm
Environment Institute, Sweden; Drew Shindell, NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, USA; Sara Terry, US Environmental Protection Agency, USA;
Eric Zusman, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan.
Chapter 3 Land: Magdi T. Abdelhamid, National Research Centre, Egypt;
T. Mitchell Aide, University of Puerto Rico, USA; Bjrn Alfthan, UNEP/GRIDArendal, Norway; Fethi Ayache, Universit de Sousse, Tunisia; Asmeret Asefaw
Berhe, University of California, Merced, USA; Saturnino (Jun) M. Borras Jr.,
Erasmus University Rotterdam, Philippines; Chizoba Chinweze, Nnamdi Azikiwe
University, Nigeria; Tahia Devisscher, Stockholm Environment Institute, UK;
Tom P. Evans, Indiana University, USA; Jana Frlichov, Charles University,
Prague, Czech Republic; Lawrence Hislop, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Norway; Carol
A. Hunsberger, Carleton University, Canada; Jason Jabbour, UNEP, Kenya; Shashi
Kant, University of Toronto, Canada; David Lpez-Carr, University of California,
Santa Barbara, USA; Hillary Masundire, University of Botswana, Botswana;
Juan Albaladejo Montoro, Centro de Edafologa y Biologa Aplicada del Segura,
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientficas, Spain; William K. Pan, Johns
Hopkins University, USA; Narcisa G. Pricope (GEO Fellow), University of Florida,
USA; Roberto Snchez-Rodrguez, University of California, Riverside, USA; Bjrn
Schulte-Herbrggen, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Jessica Smith, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Carlos
Souza Jr., Amazon Institute of People and the Environment, Brazil; Tracy L.
Timmins (GEO Fellow), University of Calgary, Canada; Hctor Francisco del Valle,
Centro Nacional Patagnico, Argentina; Joris de Vente Centro de Edafologa y
Biologa Aplicada del Segura, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientficas,
Spain; Leo C. Zulu, Michigan State University, USA.
Chapter 4 Water: Maite Aldaya, Botn Foundation, Spain; Hermanni Backer,
Helsinki Commission, Finland; Erica Brown Gaddis, SWCA Environmental
Consultants, USA; Paul Roger Glennie, UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and
Environment, Denmark; Yi Huang, Peking University, China; Hans Gnter
Brauch, Freie University of Berlin, Germany; Peter Koefoed Bjrnsen,
UNEP-DHI Centre for Water Environment, Denmark; Salif Diop, UNEP,
498
Contributors
Kenya; Mariele Evers, Leuphana University of Lueneburg, Germany;

Carlo Giupponi, University of Venice Ca Foscari, Italy; Sherry Heileman,
independent consultant, France; Gensuo Jia, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
China; Ljubomir Jeftic, independent consultant, Croatia; Alioune Kane,
Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Tiina Kurvits, UNEP/GRIDArendal, Norway; Robin Mahon, University of West Indies, Barbados; Walter
Rast, Texas State University, USA; Santiago Reyna, National University of
Cordoba, Argentina; Lisa Speer, Natural Resources Defense Council, USA;
Jaap van Woerden, UNEP, Switzerland; Roy Victor Watkinson, Roy Watkinson
Environmental Consulting Ltd, UK; Judith Weis, Rutgers University, USA.
Chapter 5 Biodiversity: John Agard, University of West Indies, Trinidad
and Tobago; Dolors Armenteras, Universidad Nacional de Colombia,
Colombia; Mario Baudoin, San Andres University, Bolivia; Kabir Bavikatte,
Natural Justice, South Africa; Bastian Bertsky, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Neil
Burgess, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; Stuart H.M. Butchart,
Birdlife International, UK; Joji Carino, International Indigenous Forum
on Biodiversity, Philippines; William W.L. Cheung, University of East
Anglia, UK; Ben Collen, Zoological Society of London, UK; Nigel Dudley,
Equilibrium, UK; C. Max Finlayson, Charles Sturt University, Australia;
Leslie G. Firbank, University of Leeds, UK; Rodrigo Fuentes, ASEAN Centre
for Biodiversity, Philippines; Alessandro Galli, Global Footprint Network,
Italy; Yogesh Gokhal, The Energy and Resources Institute, India; Simon
Hales, University of Otago, New Zealand; Marc Hockings, University of
Queensland, Australia; Robert Hft, Secretariat of the UN Convention
on Biological Diversity, Canada; J. Carter Ingram, Wildlife Conservation
Society, USA; Valerie Kapos, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Justin Kitzes, University of
California, Berkeley, USA; Ashish Kothari Kalpavriksh, Environment Action
Group, India; Linda Krueger, Wildlife Conservation Society, USA; Melodie
A. McGeoch, South Africa National Parks, South Africa; Thomasina E.E.
Oldfield, Traffic International, UK; Christian Prip, Ministry of Environment,
Denmark; Camilo Garcia Ramirez, National University of Colombia,
Colombia; Kent H. Redford, Wildlife Conservation Society, USA; Monica
Marcela Morales Rivas (GEO Fellow), Universidad Nacional de Colombia,
Colombia; John G. Robinson, Wildlife Conservation Society, USA; Alison M.
Rosser, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Jrn P.W. Scharlemann, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Holly
Shrumm, Natural Justice, South Africa; Damon Stanwell-Smith, UNEPWCMC, UK; Heikki Toivonen, Finnish Environment Institute, Finland; Bas
Verschuuren, WCPA Specialist Group on Cultural and Spiritual Values of
Protected Areas, Netherlands; Johanna von Braun, Natural Justice, South
Africa; Matt Walpole, UNEP-WCMC, UK.
Chapter 6 Chemicals and Waste: Ricardo Barra, University of Concepcin,
EULA Environmental Sciences Centre, Chile; Borislava Batandjieva,
Consultancy Services, Bulgaria; Arthur Russell Flegal Jr., University of
California, Santa Cruz, USA; Walter Giger, Giger Research Consulting,
Switzerland; Ivan Holoubek, Research Centre for Toxic Compounds in the
Environment, Masaryk University, Czech Republic; Heather Jones-Otazo,
Health Canada, Canada; Liu Lili, Basel Convention Coordinating Center for
Asia and the Pacific, China; Philip Edward Metcalf, Independent Consultant,
British/South African; Karina Silvia Beatriz Miglioranza, National Council of
Scientific and Technological Research, Mar del Plata University, Argentina;
Mnica Patricia Montory Gonzalez (GEO Fellow), University of Concepcin,
Chile; Adebola A. Oketola (GEO Fellow), University of Ibadan, Nigeria;
Oladele Osibanjo, Basel Convention Coordinating Centre for Training and
Technology Transfer for the African Region, University of Ibadan, Nigeria;
Pierre Portas, Waste Environment Cooperation Centre, Switzerland; Ian Rae,
University of Melbourne, Australia; Martin Scheringer, Institute for Chemical
and Bioengineering, Eidgenssische Technische Hochschule Zrich,
Switzerland; Claudia ten Have, UNEP, Kenya; Roy Victor Watkinson, Roy
Watkinson Environmental Consulting Ltd, UK.
Chapter 7 An Earth System Perspective: Genrikh Alekseev, Arctic and
Antarctic Research Institute, Russia; Opha Pauline Dube, University
of Botswana, Botswana; Niki Frantzeskaki, Dutch Research Institute
for Transitions, Netherlands; Benjamin Gaddis, SWCA Environmental
Consultants, USA; Andrew Githeko, Medical Research Institute, Kenya; Jill
Jger, independent expert, UK; Pushker Kharecha, NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, USA; Derk Loorbach, Dutch Research Institute for Transitions,
Netherlands; Neeyati Patel, UNEP, Kenya; James Reynolds, Duke University,
USA; Johan Rockstrm, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Jan
Rotmans, Dutch Research Institute for Transitions, Netherlands; Vladimir
Ryabinin, World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland; Jiansheng Ye (GEO
Fellow), Lanzhou University, China.
Chapter 8 Data Needs: Charles Davies, UNEP, Kenya; Jaap van Woerden,
UNEP, Switzerland; Ashbindu Singh, UNEP, USA.
Chapter 9 Africa: Ameer Abdulla, International Union for Conservation of
Nature, Centre for Mediterranean Cooperation, Spain; Osman Mirghani
M. Ali, University of Khartoum, Sudan; Adnan A. Awad, University of
the Western Cape, South Africa; Habtemariam Kassa Belay, Center for
International Forestry Research, Ethiopia Office, Ethiopia; Kerry W. Bowman,
University of Toronto, Canada; Rannveig K. Formo, UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Norway; Marina Gomei, World Wildlife Fund, Italy; Charlotte Karibuhoye,
Foundation Internationale du Banc dArguin, Senegal; Winnie Lau, Forest
Trends, USA; Masego Madzwamuse, independent consultant, South Africa;
Clever Mafuta, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Norway; Jennifer Clare MohamedKaterere, independent expert, South Africa; Francis Mwaura, University of
Nairobi, Kenya; Valerie Rabesahala, independent consultant, Madagascar;
Sachooda Ragoonaden, Indian Ocean Commission, Mauritius; Bevlyne
Sithole, Shanduko Centre for Agrarian Research, Zimbabwe.
Chapter 10 Asia and the Pacific: Iskandar Abdullaev, Deutsche Gesellschaft
fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Uzbekistan; Raquibul
Amin, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Thailand; Yumiko
Asayama, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Magnus
Bengtsson, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan; Robert
Dobias, USAID/Climate Change Adaptation Project Preparation Facility
for Asia-Pacific, Thailand; Mark Elder, Institute for Global Environmental
Strategies, Japan; Rodrigo Fuentes, ASEAN Biodiversity Centre, Philippines;
Anirban Ganguly, The Energy and Resources Institute, India; Prodipto
Ghosh, The Energy and Resources Institute, India; Guibin Jiang, Research
Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
China; Mikiko Kainuma, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan;
Yatsuka Kataoka, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan;
Peter N. King, Institute for Global Environmental Studies, Thailand; Robert
Kipp, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan; Marie Leroy,
Institute for Political Studies, Science Po, France; Keping Ma, Institute of
Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Vishal Narain, Management
Development Institute, India; Simon Hoiberg Olsen (GEO Fellow), Institute
for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan; Shavkat Rakhmatullaev,
Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH,
Uzbekistan; Nilapha Ratanavong (GEO Fellow), Regional Resource Centre
for Asia and the Pacific, Thailand; Jianbo Shi, Research Center for EcoEnvironmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Diana
Suhardiman, International Water Management Institute Southeast Asia,
Indonesia; Poh Poh Wong, University of Adelaide, Australia; Shiqiu Zhang,
Peking University, China.
Chapter 11 Europe: Thomas Bernauer, Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology, Switzerland; Olga Chkanikova (GEO Fellow), Lund University,
Sweden; Sophie Cond, National Museum of Natural History, France;
Karine Danielyan, Yerevan State University, Armenia; Nicolai Dronin,
Moscow State University, Russia; Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment
Institute, UK; Joyeeta Gupta, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands;
Naira Harutyunyan, Central European University, Hungary; Anastasia
Idrisova, Central European University, Hungary; Pavlos Kassomenos,
University of Ioannina, Greece; Olena Maslyukivska, National University
of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, Ukraine; Ruben Mnatsakanian, Central
European University, Hungary; Nora Mzavanadze, Central European
University, Hungary; Alexander Orlov, The State University of New
York, Stony Brook, USA; Mirjam Schomaker, independent consultant,
Switzerland; Jerome Simpson, The Regional Environmental Center
for Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary; sa Swartling, Stockholm
Environment Institute, Sweden.
Chapter 12 Latin America and the Caribbean: Andrea Brusco, UNEP, Panama;
Ligia Castro, CAF Development Bank of Latin America, Panama; Antonio
Clemente (GEO Fellow), Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America
and the Caribbean, Panama; Keston Finch, The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad
and Tobago; Elsa Galarza, Universidad del Pacifico, Peru; Silvia Giada,
UNEP, Panama; Alexander Girvan, The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and
Tobago; Mayte Gonzlez, The Nature Conservancy, Panama; Keisha Garcia,
The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; Mark Griffith, UNEP, Panama;
Gladys Hernndez, Centro de Investigaciones de la Economa Mundial, Cuba;
Guillermo Castro Herrera, International Sustainable Development Center,
Panama; Paul Hinds, College of Science, Technology and Applied Arts of
Trinidad and Tobago, Trinidad and Tobago; Martha Macedo de Lima, Barata
Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Brazil; Arturo Flores Martnez, Secretara de Medio
Ambiente y Recursos Naturales SEMARNAT, Mexico; Graciela Metternicht,
UNEP, Panama; Ana Rosa Moreno, Universidad Nacional Autnoma
de Mxico, Mexico; Ernesto Guhl Nannetti, Institute for Sustainable
Development CIDES, Colombia; Keith Nichols, Organisation of the Eastern
Caribbean States, St. Lucia; Rodrigo Noriega, International Sustainable
Development Center CIDES, Panama; Daniel Fontana Oberling, Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Martin Obermaier, Federal University of
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Mary Otto-Chang, independent consultant, Jamaica;
Aida Pacheco, Universidad del Pacifico, Peru; Maurice Rawlins (GEO Fellow),
The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; Andrea Salinas, UNEP,
Panama; Asha Singh, CaribInvest (West Indies) Limited, Guyana; Michael
Taylor, University of West Indies, Jamaica; Elisa Tonda, UNEP, Panama;
Angel Urea, Panama Canal Authority, Panama; Oscar Vallarino, Panama
Canal Authority, Panama; Ernesto Viglizzo, National Institute of Agricultural
Technology, Argentina; Jessica Young, MarViva Foundation, Panama; William
Wills, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Joanna Noelia Kamiche
Zegarra, Universidad del Pacifico, Peru.
Chapter 13 North America: Robert Adler, University of Utah, USA; Jane
Barr, independent expert, Canada; John Campbell, US Forest Service, USA;
James Dobrowolski, US Department of Agriculture, USA; Jos Etcheverry,
York University, Toronto, Canada; Catherine Hallmich (GEO Fellow),
Commission for Environmental Cooperation, Canada; Jim Lazar, The
Regulatory Assistance Project, USA; Philippe Le Prestre, Universit Laval,
Canada; Lailai Li, Stockholm Environment Institute, Thailand; Alexander
Kenny, Center for International Sustainable Development Law, Canada;
Lori Lynch, University of Maryland, USA; Russell M. Meyer, Pew Center on
Global Climate Change, USA; Robin Newmark, US Department of Energy,
USA; Janet Peace, Pew Center on Global Change, USA; Julie A. Suhr Pierce,
US Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service,
USA; Marc Sydnor, University of Denver, USA; Stephen Yamasaki, EcoTerra
Solutions, Canada.
Chapter 14 West Asia: Asma Abahussain, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain;
Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, Arabian Gulf University, Egypt; Mohamed Abdulrazzak,
Independent Expert, Saudi Arabia; Anwar Abdu Khalil, Arabian Gulf
University, Bahrain; Mohammad S. Abido, Damascus University, Syria;
Fouad Abousamra, UNEP, Syria; Mukdad Al-Khateeb, Environment Research
Center, Iraq; Maha Al-Sabbagh, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Lulwa
N Ali, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait; Mahmoud Al-Sibai,
Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Syria; Hashim
Al-Sayed, University of Bahrain, Bahrain; Abdullah Droubi, Arab Center for
the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands, Syria; Amr El-Sammak, Arabian
Gulf University, Egypt; Ahmad Fares Asfary, Independent Expert, Syria;
Nesreen Ghaddar, American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Mohamed Abdel
Raouf Abdel Hamid Aly, Gulf Research Center, Egypt; Amir Ibrahim, Tishreen
University, Syria; Mohammad Abdul Rahman Hassan, Dubai Municipality,
UAE, Muhyiddine Jradi, American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Ahmed
Khalil, Regional Organization for the Conservation of the Environment
of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Sudan; Abdel Hadi Mohamed, Arabian
Gulf University, Sudan; Amr El-Sammak and Ahmed Ali Salih, Arabian Gulf
University, Sudan.
Chapter 15 Regional Summary: Jane Barr, independent expert, Canada;
Ludgarde Angle Elisa Coppens, UNEP, Kenya; Nicolai Dronin, Moscow
Contributors
499
State University, Russia; Amir El-Sammak, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain;

Jose Etcheverry, York University, Toronto, Canada; Lailai Li, Stockholm
Environment Institute, Thailand; Clever Mafuta, UNEP/GRID-Arendal,
Norway; Catherine P. McMullen, independent consultant, Canada; Renat
Perelet, Institute for Systems Analysis, Russia; Flavia Rovira (GEO Fellow),
Centro de Investigaciones Econmicas, Uruguay; Asha Singh, CaribInvest
(West Indies) Limited, Guyana; Joanna Noelia Kamiche Zegarra, Universidad
del Pacifico, Peru.
Chapter 16 Scenarios Sustainability Transformation: Pinar Ertr Akyazi
(GEO Fellow), Boazii University, Turkey; Rob Alkemade, PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Andrea Bassi, Millennium
Institute, USA; Livia Bizikova, International Institute for Sustainable
Development, Canada; Villy Christensen, University of British Columbia,
Canada; Fabio Feldmann, consultant, Brazil; Martina Floerke, University
of Kassel, Germany; Jill Jger, independent expert, UK; Marcel Kok, PBL
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Paul Lucas,
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Diane
Mangalagiu, University of Oxford, UK; Washington Ochola, Regional
University Forum for Capacity Building, Kenya; Begum Ozkaynak, Boazii
University, Turkey; Trista Patterson, US Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, USA; Natalia Pervushina (GEO Fellow), Central European University,
Hungary; Laszlo Pinter, Central European University/International Institute
for Sustainable Development, Hungary/Canada; Weishuang Qu, Millennium
Institute, USA; Kilaparti Ramakrishna, Woods Hole Research Center, USA;
Claudia Ringler, International Food Policy Research Institute, Germany; John
Shilling, Millennium Institute, USA; Darren Swanson, International Institute
for Sustainable Development, Canada; Detlef van Vuuren, PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands.
Chapter 17 Global Responses: Ibrahim Abdel Gelil, Arabian Gulf University,
Bahrain; Ivar Baste, Directorate for Nature Management, Norway;
Satishkumar Belliethathan, Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre/
Network, Ethiopia; Vivien Campal, Secretary of State for Environment
and Sustainable Development, Guinea-Bissau; Bradnee Chambers,
UNEP, Kenya; Melissa Goodall (GEO Fellow), Yale University, USA; Joyeeta
Gupta, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; Peter M. Haas,
University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA; Zerisenay Habtezion, Harvard
University, USA; Achim Halpaap, UNITAR, Switzerland; Maria Ivanova,
University of Massachusetts Boston, USA; Peter N. King, Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies, Thailand; Marcel Kok, PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Bernice Lee, Chatham
House, UK; Marcus Lee, The World Bank, USA; Slobodan Milutinovic,
University of Nis, Serbia; Jennifer Clare Mohamed-Katerere, independent
expert, South Africa; Trista Patterson, US Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, USA; Felix Preston (GEO-Fellow), Chatham House, UK.
Scientific Peer-Reviewers (Coordinated by ESSP): Keigo Akimoto, Research
Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan; Mahmoud Ali,
Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, Syria; Erik Ansink, Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; Masroor Ellahi Babar, University
of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Pakistan; David Barkin, Universidad
Autnoma Metropolitana, Mexico; Janos Bogardi, University of Bonn,
Germany; Philippe Bourdeau, Director (ret.) DG Research, European
Commission; Josep Canadell, Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia;
Graciela Ana Canziani, Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de
Buenos Aires, Argentina; Andrea Birgit Chavez Michaelesen, Universidad
Nacional Amazonica de Madre de Dios, Peru; Kevin Cheung, Macquarie
University, Australia; Antonio Cruzado, Oceans Catalonia International SL,
Spain; Shobhakar Dhakal, National Institute for Environmental Studies,
Japan; Serigne Faye, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Marina
Fischer-Kowalski, Alpen Adria Universitaet, Austria; Amadou Thierno Gaye,
Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Mark O. Gessner, Berlin
Institute of Technology, Germany; Evgeny Gordov, Institute of Monitoring of
Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia; Dagmar Haase, Helmholtz Centre
for Environmental Research, Germany; Itsuki Handoh, Research Institute for
Humanity and Nature, Japan; Nick Harvey, University of Adelaide, Australia;
Lars Hein, Wageningen University, Netherlands; Gerhard J. Herndl, Royal
Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Netherlands; Shu-Li Huang,
National Taipei University, Taiwan Province of China; Falk Huettmann,
University of Alaska-Fairbanks, USA; Ada Ignaciuk, Earth System Sciences
500
Contributors
Partnership, France; Muhammad Mohsin Iqbal, Global Change Impact

Studies Centre, Pakistan; Louise Jackson, University of California, Davis,
USA; Sharad Jain, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India; Ian
Jenkinson, Agency for Consultation and Research in Oceanography, France;
Rainer Krug, Stellenbosch University, South Africa; Nelson Lourenco, IGBPInternational Geosphere Biosphere Programme/Global Change, Portugal;
Angela M. Maharaj, Macquarie University, Australia; Miyuki Nagashima,
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan; Daiju
Narita, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany; Isabelle Niang,
University of Dakar, Senegal; Patrick Nunn, University of New England,
Australia; Jay OKeeffe, Rhodes University, South Africa; Jean-Pierre Ometto,
Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, Brazil; Ursula Oswald
Spring, National University of Mexico, Mexico; Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Institute
for Environmental Systems Research, Germany; Nirmalie Pallewatta,
University of Colombo, Sri Lanka; Henrique M. Pereira, University of
Lisbon, Portugal; Erika Pires Ramos, Brazilian Institute for the Environment
and Renewable Natural Resources, Brazil; Germn Poveda, Universidad
Nacional de Colombia, Colombia; Francesc Prenafeta, Institute of Agrifood
Research and Technology, Spain; Seema Purushothaman, Centre for
Conservation Governance and Policy, ATREE, India; Dork Sahagian, Lehigh
University, USA; Galia Selaya, Madre de Dios-Pando Consortium, Bolivia;
Mika Sillanpaa, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland; Maria
Siwek, University of Technology and Life Sciences, Poland; Erika Techera,
University of Western Australia, Australia; Holm Tiessen, Inter-American
Institute for Global Change Research, Brazil; Klement Tockner, Institute of
Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Germany; Aysun Uyar, Research
Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan; Emma Archer van Garderen,
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa; Tracy Van
Holt, East Carolina University, USA; Stefano Vignudelli, National Research
Council, Italy; Hassan Virji, International START Secretariat, USA; Angela
Wagener, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Hong Yang,
Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology, Switzerland.
High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel: Rajender Ahlawat,
Ministry of Environment and Forests, India; Liana Bratasida, Ministry of
Environment, Indonesia; Hussein A. Al-Gunied, Ministry of Water and
Environment, Yemen; Wahid Al-Shuely, Ministry of Environment and Climate
Change, Oman; Burcu Bursali, Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Turkey;
Sandra De Carlo, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Mantang Cai, Peking
University, China; Jorge Laguna Celis, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mexico;
Guilherme da Costa, Secretariat of State for Environment and Sustainable
Development, Guinea Bissau; Raouf Dabbas, Ministry of Environment,
Jordan; Martijn Dadema, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Netherlands; Idunn
Eidheim, Ministry of Environment, Norway; Prudence Galega, Ministry of
Environment and Protection of Nature, Cameroon; Nilkanth Ghosh, Ministry
of Environment and Forests, India; Rosario Gomez, Ministry of Environment,
Peru; Xia Guang, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China; Han
Huiskamp, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Netherlands; Jos Lubbers, Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, Netherlands; John Michael Matuszak, US Department of
State, USA; Samira Nateche, Ministry of Land and Planning, Environment
and Tourism, Algeria; Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc, Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment, Vietnam; Jose Rafael Almonte Perdomo, Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources, Dominican Republic; Majid ShafiePour-Motlagh, Department of Environment, Iran; Van Tai Nguyen, Institute
of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam;
Jiang Wei, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China; Albert Williams,
Department of the Environment, Vanuatu; Daniel Ziegerer, Federal Office of
Environment, Switzerland.
Science and Policy Advisory Board: Asma Ali Abahussain, Arabian Gulf
University, Bahrain; Pinhas Alpert, Tel Aviv University, Israel; Torkil Jonch
Clausen, UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and Environment, Denmark; Ahmed
Djoghlaf, Secretariat of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, Canada;
Susanne Drge, German Institute for International and Security Affairs,
Germany; Kejun Jiang, Energy Research Institute, China; Nicholas King, Global
Biodiversity Information Facility, Denmark; Filipo Lansigan, University of Los
Banos, Philippines; Anne Larigauderie, DIVERSITAS, France; Emilio Lbre La
Rovere, Laboratrio Interdisciplinar de Meio Ambiente/COPPE/UFRJ, Brazil;
Jacqueline McGlade, European Environment Agency, Denmark; Luisa T.
Molina, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA; Toral Patel-Weynand, US
Department of Agriculture Forest Service, USA; Nicolas Perritaz, Federal Office
for the Environment, Switzerland; Carlos A. Quesada, University of San Jose,
Costa Rica; Chirapol Sintunawa, Mahidol University, Thailand; Sandra Torrusio,

National Commission of Space Activities, Argentina; George Varughese,
Development Alternatives Group, India; Robert Watson, Department for
Environmental, Food and Rural Affairs, UK.
Data and Indicators Working Group: Asma Ali Abahussain, Arabian Gulf
University, Bahrain; Ezgi Akpinar-Ferrand, University of Cincinnati, Turkey;
Barbara Clark, European Environment Agency, Denmark; Sandra de
Carlo, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Volodymyr Demkine, UNEP, Kenya;
Alexander Gorobets, Sevastopol National Technical University, Ukraine;
Eszter Horvath, United Nations Statistics Division, USA; Koffi Kouadio,
Ministry of Environment, Water and Forest, Cote dIvoire; Murari Lal,
University of the South Pacific, Fiji; Samwiri Musisi-Nkambwe, University of
Botswana, Botswana; Ambinistoa Lucie Noasilalaonomenjanahary, Ministry
of Environment and Forest, Madagascar; Toral Patel-Weynand, US Forest
Service, USA; Muhammad Munir Sheikh, Global Change Impact Studies
Center, Pakistan; Ashbindu Singh, UNEP, USA; Anil Kumar Thanappan,
Environmental Agency Abu Dhabi, UAE; Susan Tumwebaze, Makerere
University, Uganda; Hctor Tuy, University Raphael Landivar, Guatemala;
Jaap van Woerden, UNEP, Switzerland.
Extended UNEP Team: Henry Aguilar, Mozaharul Alam, Jacqueline Alder,
Meryem C. Amar, Neville Ash, Margarita Astrlaga, Jacqueline Alvarez, Mario
Boccucci, Vivienne Caballero, Christopher Corbin, Mara Anglica Murillo
Correa, Artie Dubrie, Heidelore Fiedler, Alex Forbes, Amy Fraenkel, Sandor
Frigyik, Joanna Granados, Julie Greenwalt, Moustapha Kamal Gueye, Niklas
Hagelberg, Jonathan Gilman, Silja Halle, Ampai Harakunarak, Arab Hoballah,
Melanie Hutchinson, David Jensen, Bob Kakuyo, Khaled Klaly, Alexander
Koch, Fanina R. Kodre-Alexander, Nicolas Kosoy, Angela Lusigi, Janet
Macharia, Kaj Madsen, Katarina Magulova, Isabel Martnez, Patricia Miranda,
David H.W. Morgan, Richard Munang, Masa Nagai, Theodore Oben, YoungWoo Park, Wahida Patwa-Shah, Alex Pires, Ravi Prabhu, Purna Rajbhandari,
Jean Jacob Sahou, Andrea Salinas, John Scanlon, Yasmin Shehata, Guido
Sonnemann, Tunnie Srisakulchairak, Angele Lu Sy, Gemma Shepherd,
Claudia ten Have, Dechen Tshering, Stephen Twomlow, Carla Valle-Klann,
James Vener, Kamar Yousuf, Massimiliano Zandomeneghi, Max Zieren.
Other United Nations Bodies: Russel Arthuton, IOC of UNESCO; Magaran
Bagayoko, WHO; Juan Carlos Belausteguigoitia, The World Bank; Ruhiza Jean
Boroto, FAO; Christopher Briggs, UNDP; Seon-Mi Choi, UNDP; Henrik Oksfeldt
Enevoldsen, UNESCO; Jos Escamilla, PAHO; Jos Javier Gmez, UN ECLAC;
Jacob Gyamfi-Aidoo, UNDP; Peter Holmgren, FAO; Mahendra Joshi, UNFF;
Mikhail Kokine, UN ECE; Lars Gunnar Marklund, FAO; Johnson Nkem, UNDP;
Emilio Pinto, PAHO; Hitomi Rankine, UN ESCAP; Mukundan Pillay, WHO; Paul
Steele, UNDP; Terrence Thompson, WHO; Mara Noel Vaeza, UNOPS; Walter
Vergara, The World Bank; Margarita Zambrano, UNHCR.
External Reviewers: Asma Ali Abahussain, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain;
Mohammad Abido, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Mariam AkhtarSchuster, Desertnet International, Germany; Stephanie Aktipis, US
Department of State, USA; Dhari Al-Ajmi, Kuwait Institute for Scientific
Research, Kuwait; Jean Albergel, Institut de Recherche pour le
Dveloppement, France; Mukdad Al-Khateeb, University of Technology, Iraq;
Habiba Al Marashi, Emirates Environmental Group, UAE; Sergio Alvarez,
Ministry of Environment Rural and Marine Affairs, Spain; Li An, San Diego
State University, USA; Matheus Marques Andreozzi, Ministry of
Environment, Brazil; Michelle Andriamahazo, Ministry of Agriculture,
Madagascar; Fabio Franca Silva Araujo, Ministry of Environment, Brazil;
Fethi Ayache, Universit de Sousse, Tunisia; Julio Cesar Baena, Ministry of
Environment, Brazil; Robert Bakiika, Environmental Management for
Livelihood Improvement Bwaise Facility, Uganda; Jan Bakkes, PBL
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Zoltan Balint,
FAO, Hungary; Martha Macedo de Lima Barata, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz,
Brazil; Alisson Barbieri, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Brazil;
Garfield Barnwell, Caribbean Community Secretariat, Guyana; Stephen
Bates, Department of Sustainability Environment Water Population and
Communities, Australia; Adriana Panhol Bayma, Ministry of Environment,
Brazil; Douglas Beard, US Geological Survey, USA; Asmeret Asefaw Berhe,
University of California Merced, USA; Martial Bernoux, Institut de Recherche
pour le Dveloppement, France; Alka Bharat, Maulana Azad National
Institute of Technology, India; Janos Bogardi, University of Bonn, Germany;
Hans-Georg Bohle, University of Bonn, Germany; Marcel Bovy, Sustainability
Guidance, Netherlands; Andreas Brink, Joint Research Center European

Commission, Italy; Carmen Burghelea, University of Vigo, Romania; Nadia
Bystriakova, Natural History Museum, UK; Jillian Campbell, United Nations
Secretariat, USA; Rita Cerutti, Environment Canada, Canada; Antony
Challenger, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, Mexico; Hung
Chak Ho, Mississippi State University, USA; Ge Chazhong, Chinese Academy
for Environmental Planning, China; Marion Cheatle, independent expert,
UK; Mbow Cheikh, Universit Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Weixue
Cheng, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, China; Norma
Cherry-Fevrier, Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and National
Development, Saint Lucia; Barthod Christian, Ministry of Ecology,
Sustainable Development, Transport and Housing, France; Adriano Ciani,
Perugia University, Italy; Barbara Clark, European Environment Agency,
Denmark; Petru Cocirta, Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Academy
of Sciences, Moldova; Ana Corado, US Environmental Protection Agency,
USA; Srgio Ferreira Cortizo, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Sylvie Ct,
Environment Canada, Canada; Sandra De Carlo, Ministry of Environment,
Brazil; Nathalie Delrue, OECD, France; Xiangzheng Deng, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China; Alvaro Aguilar Daz, Ministerio de Ambiente, Energa y
Telecomunicaciones, Costa Rica; Kelly Rain Dodge, US Department of State,
USA; Ida Edwertz, Ministry of Environment, Sweden; Kassem El-Saddik,
Dveloppement Sans Frontieres, Lebanon; Karlheinz Erb, Institute of Social
Ecology, USA; Keston Finch, The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago;
Jeff Fox, US Department of State, USA; Teodoro Georgiadis, Institute of
Biometeorology of the National Research Council, Italy; Matthew Gerdin, US
Department of State, USA; Anju Ghoorah, Ministry of Environment and
Sustainable Development, Mauritius; Alexander Girvan, The Cropper
Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; Kees Klein Goldewijk, PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Liza Grandia, Clark
University, USA; Xia Guang, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China;
Andres Guhl, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia; Rodrigo Afonso
Guimares, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Slayde Hawkins, Forest Trends,
USA; Hans-Joachim Hermann, Federal Environmental Agency, Germany; Jeff
Herrick, US Department of Agriculture, USA; Vicki Hird, World Society for the
Protection of Animals, UK; Yi Huang, Peking University, China; Lloyd C.
Irland, University of Maine, USA; Klaus Jacob, Freie Universitt Berlin,
Germany; Ljubomir Jeftic, independent consultant, Croatia; Gensuo Jia,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Li Jinhui, Basel Convention
Coordinating Centre for Asia and the Pacific, China; Liu Jinyuan, Institute of
Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of
Sciences, China; Daniel Jones, Department of Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs, UK; Heather Jones-Otazo, Health Canada, Canada; Muhyiddine Jradi,
American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Wilfred Kadewa, University of
Malawi, Malawi; Douglas Karlen, US Department of Agriculture, USA; Jiang
Kejun, Energy Research Institute, China; Martin Kijazi, University of Toronto,
Canada; Nicolas King, Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Denmark;
Barbara Knox-Seith, US Agency for International Development, USA; Noriko
Kobayashi, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan; Murari Lal, University of the
South Pacific, Fiji; Greg Liknes, US Department of Agriculture, USA; Ronald
Macfarlane, Toronto Public Health, Canada; Mazen Malkawi, WHO, Jordan;
Cai Mantang, Peking University, China; Ney Maranho, Ministry of
Environment, Brazil; Saskia Marijnissen, UNDP/GEF Project on Partnership
Interventions for the Implementation of the Strategic Action Programme for
Lake Tanganyika, Burundi; Bernado Marke, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Brazil; Mike McGahuey, US Agency for International Development, USA;
Elizabeth McLanahan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
USA; Carlos Mena, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Ecuador; Alexander
Metcalf, US Environmental Protection Agency, USA; Frank Mller, Asia
Pacific Roundtable for Sustainable Consumption and Production, Thailand;
Michele Muniz, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; John K. Musingi, University
of Nairobi, Kenya; Mark Nelson, US Department of Agriculture Forest
Service, USA; Keith E. Nichols, Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States,
Saint Lucia; Itzchel Nieto, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources,
Mexico; Taina Nikula, Ministry of the Environment, Finland; Theophile
Niyonzima, National University of Rwanda, Rwanda; Ambinintsoa Lucie
Noasilalaonomenjanahary, Ministry of Environment and Forest,
Madagascar; Patrick Nussbaumer, United Nations Industrial Development
Organization, Austria; Htwe Nyo, National Commission for Environmental
Affairs, Myanmar; Alice Oluoko-Odingo, University of Nairobi, Kenya; Andra
Oncala, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, ICLEI
Local Governments for Sustainability, Germany; Dawn Parker, University
Contributors
501
of Waterloo, Canada; Toral Patel-Weynand, US Department of Agriculture

Forest Service, USA; Netatua Pelesikoti, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional
Environment Programme, Samoa; Maria Pena, University of the West Indies,
Barbados; Monica Peres, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Nicolas Perritaz,
Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland; Rebecca L. Powell,
University of Denver, USA; Narcisa G. Pricope, University of Florida, USA;
Kaushalya Ramachandran, Central Research Institute for Dryland
Agriculture, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, India; Maurice Rawlins,
The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; Richard Roseman, US
Department of State, USA; Kurt Riitters, US Department of Agriculture Forest
Service, USA; Taeho Ro, Korea Environment Institute, Republic of Korea;
John Romankiewicz, US Department of State, USA; Dale Rothman, University
of Denver, USA; Najib Saab, Arab Forum for Environment and Development,
Lebanon; Nurhuda Binti Salam, Department of Environment, Malaysia; Neil
Sampson, Vision Forestry, LLC, USA; Henriette Schweizerhof, Federal
Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety,
Germany; Richard Sigman, OECD, France; Juliana Simes, Ministry of
Environment, Brazil; Benjamin Sleeter, US Geological Survey, USA; Stephan
Slingerland, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
Netherlands; William Sonntag, US Environmental Protection Agency, USA;
Anand Sookun, Central Statistics Office, Mauritius; Mary Beth Steisslinger,
Global Commons Trust, USA; Karen Regina Suassuna, Ministry of
Environment, Brazil; Danling Tang, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Tracy Timmins, University of Calgary,
Canada; Mary Andy Rowen Tobiason, US Agency for International
Development, USA; Bella Tonkonogy, Department of Treasury, USA; Darin
Tooney, US Department of State, USA; Jerry Touval, The Nature Conservancy,
USA; Nathalie Unterstell, Ministry of Environment, Brazil; Niko Urho,
Ministry of the Environment, Finland; Ingrid Verstraeten, US Geological
Survey, USA; Anne Wein, US Geological Survey, USA; Judith S. Weis, Rutgers
University, USA; Mona M. Westergaard, Environmental Protection Agency,
Denmark; Dano Wilusz, US Department of State, USA; Maria Witmer, PBL
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Kerstin
Wortman, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety, Germany; Lesley Woudberg, Ministry for the Environment,
New Zealand; H. E. Mohammadi Zadeh, Department of Environment, Iran;
Jieqing Zhang, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China; Daniel Ziegerer,
Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland.
Individuals and institutions from governments, partner institutions,
the scientific community and the private sector who contributed to
the GEO-5 assessment process in a variety of ways, including GEO-5
regional and intergovernmental consultations:
Africa: Ahmed Abdelrehim, Centre for Environment and Development for the
Arab Region and Europe, Egypt; Ali Adan Ali, National Museums of Kenya,
Kenya; Jonathan Addo Allotey, Environmental Protection Agency, Ghana;
Marie-Laetitia Busokeye, Rwanda Environment Management Authority,
Rwanda; Lizete Marina Firmino, Minister of Environment, Angola; Osman
Mirghani Mohammed Ali, University of Khartoum, Sudan; Ayman Tharwat
Amin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Egypt; Daniel S. Amlalo, Environmental
Protection Agency, Ghana; Michelle Andriamahazo, Ministry of Agriculture,
Madagascar; Samuel Ndonwi Ayonghe, University of Buea, Cameroon; Adnan
A. Awad, University of the Western Cape, South Africa; Robert Bakiika,
Environmental Management for Livelihood Improvement Bwaise Facility,
Uganda; Ndey Sireng Bakurin, National Environment Agency, The Gambia;
Philip O. Bankole, Federal Ministry of Environment, Nigeria; Mohammed El
Bouch, Ministry of Water and Environment, Morocco; Viriat Cassam,
Secretariat of State for Environment and Sustainable Development,
Guinea-Bissau; Oliver Chapeyama, independent consultant, Botswana;
Mbow Cheikh, Universit Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Thandiwe
Chikomo, Birdlife International, Kenya; Tabeth Chiuta, World Fish Center,
Zambia; Famara Drammeh, Daily Observer News Paper, The Gambia; Scopas
Jibi Dima, Ministry of Environment, South Sudan; Mathieu Ducrocq,
International Union for Conservation of Nature, Mauritania; Nadia Makram
Ebeid, Center for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and
Europe, Egypt; Abu Bakr Elsiddig Ahmed Eltohami, Omdurman Ahlia
University, Sudan; Thiyu Kohoga Essobiyou, Ministry of Environment and
Forest Resources, Togo; Serigne Faye, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar,
Senegal; Michael Vosa Flyman, Department of Environmental Affairs,
Botswana; Cheikh Fofana, Secrtariat Intrimaire du Volet Environnement du
NEPAD, Senegal; Louis Gachimbi, National Environment Management
502
Contributors
Authority, Kenya; Tesfaye Woldeyes Gammo, Ethiopia; Brad Garanganga,

SADC Drought Monitoring Centre, Zimbabwe; Jean Paul Gaudechoux, Indian
Ocean Commission, Mauritius; Noha Ekram Abdel Gawad, Centre for
Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe, Egypt;
Amadou Thierno Gaye, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Mercy
Wamukore Gichora, Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Kenya; John Githaiga,
University of Nairobi, Kenya; Sives Govender, Network for the Co-operative
Management of Environmental Information in Africa (EIS Africa), South Africa;
Youssouf Hamadi, Ministry of Production, Fisheries, Environment, Industry,
Energy and Handicraft, Comoros; Mamoudou Hamadou, Ministre de
lHydraulique et de lEnvironnement, Niger; Mohamed Salem Hamouda,
Environment General Authority, Libya; Pascal Houenou, Network for
Environment and Sustainable Development in Africa, Cote dIvoire; Issa Ibro,
Ministre de lEnvironnement et de la Lutte Contre la Dsertification, Niger; I.
A. Jaiyeoba, Ahmadu Bello University, Nigeria; Remi Jiagho, Union
Internationale pour la Conservation de la Nature, Cameroon; Marie Rose
Kabura, Ministry of Water, Environment, Land Use and Urban Planning,
Burundi; Wilfred Kadewa, University of Malawi, Malawi; Adjakouma Kakou,
Radio des Nations Unies, Cote dIvoire; Timothy Kaluma, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Kenya; Mona Mohamed Kamal, Egyptian Environmental Affairs
Agency, Egypt; Macharia Kamau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kenya; Alioune
Kane, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Senegal; Samuel Kanyamibwa,
independent consultant, Rwanda; Lydia Karanja, National Environment
Management Authority, Kenya; Charlotte Karibuhoye, Foundation
Internationale du Banc dArguin, Senegal; Habtemariam Kassa, Center for
International Forestry Research Ethiopia Office, Ethiopia; Norah M. Kendeli,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kenya; Ahmed Khalil, Regional Organization for the
Conservation of the Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Sudan;
Mamadou Khouma, International Development Consulting, Senegal; John
Kiringe, University of Nairobi, Kenya; Boniface Kiteme, Centre for Training and
Research in ASAL Development, Kenya; Yao Bernard Koffi, Ministry of
Environment, Water and Forest, Cote dIvoire; Kassim Kulindwa, Norwegian
University of Life Sciences/University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Christian
Padingani Kunkadi, Ministry of Environment, Nature Conservation and
Tourism, Democratic Republic of Congo; Winnie Lau, Forest Trends, USA;
Robert Lewis Lettington, legal consultant, Kenya; Everlyn Macharia, Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, Kenya; Lapologang Magole, University of Botswana,
Botswana; Amadou Maiga, Ministre de lEnvironnement et de
lAssainissement, Mali; Willy R. Makundi, independent consultant, Tanzania;
Joel Celestin Mamboundou, Croissance Saine Environnement, Gabon; Anna
Mampye, Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, South Africa;
Paul Stephen Maro, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; Isabelle Masinde,
African Wildlife Foundation, Kenya; Klaus Mithoefer, African Insect Science for
Food and Health, Kenya; Nosiku S. Munyinda, University of Zambia, Zambia;
Telly Eugene Muramira, National Environment Management Authority,
Uganda; John K. Musingi, University of Nairobi, Kenya; Mukundi Mutasa,
Topline Research Solutions, Zimbabwe; Nyawira Muthiga, Wildlife
Conservation Society, Kenya; Francis Mwaura, University of Nairobi, Kenya;
Richard Mwendandu, Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources, Kenya;
David Melchisdck Yangbondo, Central African Republic; Jacques Andre
Ndione, Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Senegal; Parkinson Ndonye, Ministry of
Environment and Mineral Resources, Kenya; Alleta R. Nenguke, Environment
Management Agency, Zimbabwe; Tcharbuahbokengo Nfinn, Federation of
Environmental and Ecological Diversity for Agricultural Revampment and
Human Rights, Cameroon; Erasmo Roberto Nhachungue, Ministry of
Environmental Affairs, Mozambique; Musisi Nkambwe, University of
Botswana, Botswana; Isabelle Niang, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar,
Senegal; Betty Nzioka, National Environment Management Authority, Kenya;
Jorge Rafael Jora Obiamo, Ministry of Fisheries and the Environment,
Equatorial Guinea; David Obura, Coastal Oceans Research and Development
in the Indian Ocean, Kenya; Ochieng Ogodo, Science and Development
Network, Kenya; Jay OKeeffe, Rhodes University, South Africa; Olukayode
Oladipo, Bells University of Technology, Nigeria; Alice Oluoko-Odingo,
University of Nairobi, Kenya; David Ongare, National Environment
Management Authority, Kenya; Alfred Opere, University of Nairobi, Kenya;
George Olago Owuor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kenya; Chedly Rais, Regional
Activity Centre for Specially Protected Areas, Tunisia; Belinda Reyers, Council
for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa; John L. Roberts,
independent consultant, Mauritius; Houssein Rirache Roble, Direction de
lEnvironnement du Territoire et de lnvironnement, Djibouti; Mayar Sabet,
Centre for Environment and Development for the Arab Region and Europe,
Egypt; Jefter Sakupwanya, ORGUT Consulting AB, Mozambique; Camille Flore
Jepang Sandjong, Programme Regional Eau et Zones Humides, Cameroon;

Gerald Musoke Sawula, National Environment Management Authority,
Uganda; Ashraf Nour Shalaby, League of Arab States, Egypt; Constantine
Shayo, Tanzania; Cletus Ignace Shengena, Vice-Presidents Office, Tanzania;
Gift Sikaundi, Environment Council of Zambia, Zambia; Nouri Soussi, Ministry
of Environment and Sustainable Development, Tunisia; Sokhna Sy Diallo,
Direction de lEnvironnement et des Etablissements Classs, Senegal; Egline
Tawuya, Southern African Research and Documentation Centre/Musokotwane
Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa, Zimbabwe; Maino Virobo,
Department of Environment and Conservation, Papua New Guinea; Ben
Wandago, International Union for Conservation of Nature Eastern Africa
Regional Office, Kenya; Harun Warui, Kenya Agricultural Research Institute,
Kenya; Baraza Wangwe, National Environment Management Authority, Kenya.
Teariki-Ruatu, Ministry of Environment, Lands and Agriculture Development,

Kiribati; Maung Maung Than, Ministry of Environment Conservation and
Forestry, Myanmar; Somsak Triamjangarun, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Thailand; Karma Tshering, National Environment Commission, Bhutan;
Hoang Duong Tung, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment,
Vietnam; Ahmed Ashan Uddin, Center for Global Change, Bangladesh;
Jinnan Wang, Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, China; Supat
Wangwongwatana, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Thailand;
Yohpy Ichsan Wardana, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia; Albert Abel
Williams, Department of Environment and Conservation, Vanuatu; Huang
Yi, Peking University, China; Hai Yu, Ministry of Environmental Protection,
China; Zhang Yutian, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China; Tshewang Zangmo,
National Environment Commission, Bhutan.
Asia and the Pacific: Joseph Aitaro, Ministry of Natural Resources,

Environment and Tourism, Palau; Oluwatobi Akanle, International Institute
for Sustainable Development, UK; Chamina Priyankari Alexander, South
Asia Cooperative Environment Programme, Sri Lanka; Cholpon Alibakieva,
State Agency on Environment Protection and Forestry, Kyrgyz Republic;
Chonchinee Amawatana, Asian Development Bank, Thailand; Saikia
Anshuman, International Union for Conservation of Nature Asia Regional
Office, Thailand; Kamil Ashimov, State Agency on Environment Protection
and Forestry, Kyrgyzstan; Uddhav Prasad Baskota, Ministry of Environment,
Nepal; Henry Bastaman, Ministry of Environment, Indonesia; Mirza Salman
Babar Beg, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan; Mantang Cai, Peking
University, China; Akihiro Chiashi, Ritsumeikan University, Japan; Kanchan
Chopra, University of Delhi Enclave, India; Munir Chowdhury, Ministry
of Environment and Forests, Bangladesh; Yoo Yeon Chul, Ministry of
Environment, Republic of Korea; Nicholas T. Dammen, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Indonesia; Ashish Despande, Maulana Azud National Institute of
Technology, India; Laksmi Dhewanthi, Ministry of Environment, Indonesia;
Chazhong Ge, Chinese Academy of Environment Planning, China; Manuel
D. Gerochi, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Philippines;
Abbas Golriz, Department of International Economic Affairs and Specialized
Agencies, Iran; Xia Guang, Ministry of Environmental Protection, China;
Toshiaki Ichinose, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Dahe
Jiang, Tongji University, China; Galiya Karibzhanova, Ministry of Environment
Protection, Kazakhstan; Soudavee Keopaseuth, Water Resources and
Environment Administration, Lao PDR; Masanori Kobayashi, Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies, Japan; Cheol Hee Kim, Pusan National
University, Republic of Korea; Peter Kouwenhoven, CLIMsystems, New
Zealand; D. Johny Kusumo, Ministry of Environment, Indonesia; Murari
Lal, University of the South Pacific, Fiji; Kosimiki Latu, Secretariat of the
Pacific Regional Environment Programme, Samoa; Byoung Yoon Lee,
National Institute of Biological Resources, Republic of Korea; Dong Li, Tongji
University, China; Daniela Liggett, University of Canterbury, New Zealand;
Demetrio Jr. Luciano, Department of Environment and Natural Resources,
Philippines; Nguyen Hung Minh, Vietnam Environment Administration,
Vietnam; Arabindra Mishra, The Energy and Resources Institute, India;
Khieu Muth, Ministry of Environment, Cambodia; Seul-ki Myoung, UNEP
National Committee, Republic of Korea; Hasnun Nahar, Ministry of
Environment and Forests, Bangladesh; Somrudee Nicrowattanayingyong,
Thailand Environment Institute, Thailand; Nuradi Noeri, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Indonesia; Rahul Pandey, Integrated General Systems Analysis
Labs, India; Majid Shafie-Pour-Motlagh, Department of Environment,
Iran; Meera Pandit Pattni, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Thailand; Batimaa
Punsalmaa, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia; Atiq
Rahman, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Bangladesh; Bakhodir
Rakhmanov, State Committee for the Nature Protection, Uzbekistan; Neelam
Rana, Development Alternatives Group, India; Kim Sanghoon, Ministry of
Environment, Republic of Korea; Vivek Saxena, Ministry of Environment
and Forests, India; Heinz Schandl, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organization, Australia; M. I. Sharif, Bangladesh Centre for
Advanced Studies, Bangladesh; Keshav Prasad Sharma, Ministry of
Environment, Nepal; Leena Srivastava, The Energy and Resources Institute,
India; Anond Snidvongs, Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Thailand;
Laska Sophal, Ministry of Environment, Cambodia; Nguyen Van Tai, Institute
of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam;
Kiyoshi Takahashi, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Eiji
Tanaka, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan; Abhimuk Tantihabhakul, Office
of National Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning, Thailand;
Tshering Tashi, National Environment Commission, Bhutan; Nenenteiti
Europe: Rashad Allahverdiyev, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources,

Azerbaijan; Ros Almond, World Wildlife Fund IUCN/SSC Sustainable Use
Specialist Group, UK; Valentine Altmater, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France;
Markus Amann, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria; Erik Ansik, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands; John Barrett,
University of York, UK; Heike Baumueller, Chatham House, UK; Volodymyr
Bilokon, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Ukraine; Bastian
Bomhard, UNEP-WCMC, UK; Ninni Maud Christina Lundblad Born, Swedish
Environmental Protection Agency, Sweden; Daniela Breidler, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Austria; Andreas Michael Burger, Federal Environmental
Agency, Germany; Olga Butko, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources,
Ukraine; Francisco Cadarso, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment,
Spain; Sophie Cond, National Museum of Natural History, France; William
Darwall, International Union for Conservation of Nature, UK; Nicolas Dasnois,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France; David Dent, CABI Bioscience, UK; Erdoan
Erturk, Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, Turkey; Joan Fabres, UNEP/
GRID-Arendal, Norway; Jon Geddes, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, UK; Luminita
Guminita Ghita, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Romania; Nino
Gokhelashvili, Ministry of Environment Protection, Georgia; Richard Gregory,
Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, UK; Charles Hieronymi, Federal
Office for the Environment, Switzerland; Peter Hooda, Kingston University
London, UK; Monika Kaczyska, Ministry of the Environment, Poland;
Larisa Kharatova, Ministry of Nature Protection, Armenia; Richard Klein,
Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Natalija Koprivanac, University
of Zagreb, Croatia; Hratch Kouyoumjian, Regional Science, Technology and
Innovation Observatory, UK; Fred Langeweg, PBL Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Evgeny Lazarev, Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Belarus; Melissa Leach, Institute for Development Studies, UK; Rik
Leemans, Earth Systems Science Partnership, Netherlands; Roger Levett,
Levett-Therivel, UK; Georgina Mace, Imperial College London, UK; Tural
Mammadov, Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azerbaijan; Tom
Manders, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands;
Peter P. Mollinga, University of London, UK; Marketa Mohn, Ministry of the
Environment, Czech Republic; Davut Oguz, Ministry of Forest and Water
Affairs, Turkey; Nebojsa D. Redzic, Environmental Protection Agency, Serbia;
Lisa Schipper, Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden; Rima Mekdaschi
Studeer, University of Bern, Switzerland; George Dragos Zaharescu, Vigo
University, Spain; Dalia Maier, Ministry of Environment and Forests,
Romania; Juliet Migwi, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, United Kingdom; Markus
Ohndorf, Institut fr Umweltentscheidungen (ETH Zrich), Switzerland;
Vronique Plocq-Fichelet, Scientific Committee on Problems of the
Environment, France; Renate Schubert, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology,
Switzerland; David Stanners, European Environment Agency, Denmark;
Wendelin Stark, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland; Thomas
Stratenwerth, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety, Germany; Petra Tacheci, Ministry of the Environment, Czech
Republic; Victoria Thoresen, Partnership for Education and Research about
Responsible Living, Norway; Jurjen van der Vlugt, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
Netherlands; John Laing Roberts, independent expert, UK.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Gherda Barreto, Ministerio del
Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Nicaragua; Marcela Bonilla, Ministry of
the Environment, Colombia; Ralph Carnegie, University of West Indies,
Barbados; Mnica Castillo, Comisin Centroamericana de Ambiente
y Desarrollo, El Salvador; Candy Degracia, Asociacin Panam Verde,
Panama; Randolph Antonio Edmead, Ministry of Sustainable Development,
Saint Kitts and Nevis; Edgar Ek, Department of the Environment, Belize;
Kenneth Fearon, Panama; Jose Feres, Institute of Applied Economic
Contributors
503
Research, Brazil; Argelia Estela Fernndez, Agencia de Medio Ambiente,

Cuba; Edwin Giovanni Tobar Guzman, Ministerio de Ambiente y Recursos
Naturales, Guatemala; Arica Marianne Hill, Ministry of Agriculture, Land,
Housing, and the Environment, Antigua and Barbuda; Kenrick Leslie,
Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belize; Patricia Maccagno,
Secretara de Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable, Argentina; Marcelo
Nez, Ministry of the Environment, Ecuador; Csar E. Rodrguez Ortega,
Secretara de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales SEMARNAT, Mexico;
Luis Javier Campuzano Pina, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mexico; JoseManuel Sandoval, Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development,
Colombia; Sealy Sean, Ministry of Environment, Water Resources
and Drainage, Barbados; Vaitoti Tupa, National Environment Service,
Cook Islands; Gabriel Rodrguez Mrquez, Instituto Interamericano de
Cooperacin para la Agricultura, Costa Rica; Mirella Martinez, Florida State
University, USA; Diana Martucci, Ministerio del Ambiente, Ecuador; Anthony
McKenzie, National Environment and Planning Agency, Jamaica; Malena
Sarlo, Fundacion Mar Viva, Panama; Rodrigo Tart, Fundacin Ciudad del
Saber, Panama; Jessica Young, Fundacin Mar Viva, Panama.
North America: Karen Bakker, University of British Columbia, Canada;
Scott Barclay, National Science Foundation, USA; M. Bruce Beck, University
of Georgia, USA; Luc Bouthilier, Universit Laval, Canada; Paula Brand,
Environment Canada, Canada; Edward Carr, University of South Carolina,
USA; Richard Connor, Unisfra International Centre, Canada; Tooney Darin,
US Department of State, USA; Ligia Castro de Doens, Land Eco Services,
USA; Stewart Elgie, University of Ottawa, Canada; James Galloway, Nitrogen
Initiative, USA; Kathryn Harrison, University of British Columbia, Canada;
David Houle, University of Toronto, Canada; Giorgios Kallis, University
of California, Berkeley, USA; Douglas Macdonald, University of Toronto,
Canada; Ronald Macfarlane, Toronto Public Health, Canada; Jerry Melillo,
The Ecosystems Center, USA; Jean Mercier, Universit Laval, Canada; Tim
Morris, Walter and Duncan Gordon Foundation, USA; Adil Najam, Boston
University, USA; Daniel Pauly, University of British Columbia, Canada; Jim
Perry, University of Minnesota, USA; Rebecca L. Powell, University of Denver,
USA; Carmen Revenga, The Nature Conservancy, USA; Andrew Rosenberg,
Conservation International, USA; Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez, University
of California, Riverside, USA; Beverly Sithole, Management Consulting,
USA; John D. Shilling, Millennium Institute, USA; Sarah Ryker, Science and
Technology Policy Institute, USA; Liana Talaue-Mcmanus, University of
Miami, USA; Tim Weis, The Pembina Institute, Canada.
West Asia: Hesham Abd-El Rasol, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Yousef
Attallah Ibrahim Abu-Safieh, Palestinian Environment Quality Authority,
Palestine; Mohammad Mosa Afaneh, Ministry of Environment, Jordan;
Saif Saad Abdaljabbar Al-Aany, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Iraq; Ahmed
Hammodi Hamdi Al-Husseini, Ministry of Environment, Iraq; Lulwa N. Ali,
Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait; Sabah Aljenaid, College of
Graduate Studies, Bahrain; Khalil Ismail Abdulsahib Al-Mosawi, Ministry
of Foreign Affairs, Iraq; Bara Al-Nakeeb, Ministry of Environment, Iraq;
Maha Al-Sabbagh, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Hashim Al-Sayed,
University of Bahrain, Bahrain; Waleed Al-Zubari, Arabian Gulf University,
Bahrain; Yahia Awaidah, Consultants for Sustainable Development, Syria;
Mohammad Badran, Regional Organization for the Conservation of the
Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Saudi Arabia; Abdullah
Droubi, The Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones, Syria; Alaa ElSadek, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Anwar Abdu Khalil, Arabian Gulf
University, Bahrain; Mohammed Alaa Abdel Moati, Ministry of Environment,
Qatar; Abdel Hadi Mohamed, Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain; Riad Sadek,
American University of Beirut, Lebanon; Mohammed Saidam, Environment
Monitoring and Research Central Unit, Jordan; Ahmed Salih, Arabian Gulf
University, Bahrain; Walid Rajab Shahin, National Energy Research Center,
Jordan; Batir Wardam, Ministry of Environment, Jordan.
504
Contributors
In-kind support for GEO Fellows: American University of Beirut, Lebanon;

Antioch University, USA; Regional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific,
Thailand; Bogazici University, Turkey; University of Calgary, Canada;
Central European University, Hungary; Concepcin University, Chile; UNEP/
GRID-Arendal, Norway; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,
Japan; IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre, Kenya; Lanzhou
University, China; Lund University, Sweden; McGill University, Canada;
Peking University, China; Red Mercosur, Uruguay; Chatham House, UK;
The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; Universidad Nacional de
Colombia; University of Florida, USA; Water Center for the Humid Tropics of
Latin America and the Caribbean, Panama.
Contributing institutions and organizations: Abu Dhabi Global
Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI); Arabian Gulf University, Bahrain;
Alexandria University, Egypt; American University of Beirut, Lebanon;
ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity, Philippines; Central European University,
Hungary; Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Senegal; Centre for Environment
and Development for the Arab Region and Europe, Egypt; Centre for
International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University,
USA; Centro de Investigaciones de la Economa Mundial, Cuba; College
of Science, Technology and Applied Arts of Trinidad and Tobago, Trinidad
and Tobago; Columbia University, USA; Commission for Environmental
Cooperation, Canada; Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, Uzbekistan; DIVERSITAS International
Programme of Biodiversity Science, France; Earth System Science
Partnership, France; European Environment Agency, Denmark; Federal
University of Rio de Janeiro Interdisciplinary Environment Laboratory,
Brazil; Higher Institute for Water Management, Syria; ICLEI Local
Governments for Sustainability, Germany; Indiana University, USA;
Indian Ocean Commission, Mauritius; Institut fr Umweltentscheidungen
(ETH Zrich), Switzerland; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies,
Japan; Institute Oswaldo Cruz, Brazil; Institute for Sustainable
Development, Colombia; International Institute for Sustainable
Development, Canada; International Sustainable Development Center,
Panama; International Union for Conservation of Nature, Cameroon
and Thailand; International Water Management Institute Southeast
Asia, Lao PDR; Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Kuwait; Moscow
State University, Russia; National Environment Management Authority,
Uganda; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; National
Institute of Agricultural Technology, Argentina; Network for Environment
and Sustainable Development in Africa, Cte dIvoire; PBL Netherlands
Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands; Regional Organization
for the Conservation of the Environment of the Red Sea and Gulf of
Aden, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; Research Center for Eco-Environmental
Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Secretaria de Medio
Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, Mexico; Secretariat of the UN Convention
on Biological Diversity, Canada; Secretariat of the UN Convention to
Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or
Desertification, Particularly in Africa, Germany; Secretariat of the UN-REDD
Programme, Switzerland; Southern African Research and Documentation
Centre/Musokotwane Environment Resource Centre for Southern Africa,
Zimbabwe; Stockholm Environment Institute, Sweden, Thailand and
United Kingdom; The Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones, Syria;
The Cropper Foundation, Trinidad and Tobago; The Energy and Resources
Institute, India; Tishreen University, Syria; Universidad del Pacfico, Peru;
Universidad Nacional Autnoma de Mxico, Mexico; University of Bahrain,
Bahrain; University of Technology, Iran; University of Toronto, Faculty of
Forestry, Canada; World Resources Institute, USA.
Note: The affiliations of experts are provided for identification purposes
only. The name of the country usually refers to the location of the institution
the expert is affiliated with.
Glossary
This glossary is compiled from citations in different chapters, and draws from glossaries and other resources available on the websites
of the following organizations, networks and projects:
American Meteorological Society; Asian Development Bank; Center for Transportation Excellence (United States); Charles Darwin University
(Australia); Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research; Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially
as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar); Edwards Aquifer Website (United States); Encyclopedia of Earth; Europes Information Society; European
Commission Environment A to Z; European Environment Agency; European Nuclear Society; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations; Foundation for Research; Science and Technology (New Zealand); Global Earth Observation System of Systems; Global Footprint
Network; GreenFacts Glossary; Illinois Clean Coal Institute (United States); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; International Centre
for Research in Agroforestry; International Comparison Program; International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements; International
Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (United States); International Strategy for Disaster Reduction; Lyme
Disease Foundation (United States); Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe;
National Safety Council (United States); Natsource (United States); Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Professional
Development for Livelihoods (United Kingdom); Redefining Progress (United States); SafariX eTextbooks Online; TheFreeDictionary.com;
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in
Africa; United Nations Development Programme; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change; United Nations Industrial Development Organization; United Nations Statistics Division; US
Department of Agriculture; US Department of the Interior; US Department of Transportation; US Energy Information Administration; US
Environmental Protection Agency; US Geological Survey; USLegal.com; Water Footprint Network, the Netherlands; Water Quality Association
(United States); Wikipedia; World Bank; World Health Organization and World Intellectual Property Organization.
Abundance
The number of individuals or related measure of quantity (such
as biomass) in a population, community or spatial unit.
Abrupt change
The change that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that
human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it.
Acidification
Change in natural chemical balance caused by an increase in the
concentration of acidic elements.
Acidity
A measure of how acid a solution may be. A solution with a pH of
less than 7.0 is considered acidic.
Adaptation
Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing
environment, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation,
private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned
adaptation.
Adaptive capacity
The potential or ability of a system, region or community to
adapt to the effects or impacts of a particular set of changes.
Enhancement of adaptive capacity is a practical means of coping
with changes and uncertainties, reducing vulnerabilities and
promoting sustainable development.
Adaptive governance
A governance approach that incorporates methods of adaptive
management, adaptive policy making and transition management
for addressing complex, uncertain and dynamic issues. Adaptive
governance relies on polycentric institutional arrangements for

decision making at multiple scales. Spanning the local and global
levels, this form of governance provides for collaborative, flexible,
learning-based approaches to ecosystem management.
Adaptive environmental governance
The process of design and execution of policy based on
contemporary understanding and ongoing analysis of evolving
environmental problems. Spanning the local and global levels,
it relies on polycentric institutional arrangements for decisionmaking at multiple scales and provides for evidence-based,
consultative and participatory ecosystem management able to
evolve along with the problems it aims to address.
Adaptive management
A systematic management paradigm that assumes natural
resource management policies and actions are not static, but are
adjusted based on the combination of new scientific and socioeconomic information.
Aerosols
A collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical
size between 0.01 and 10 micrometres (m), that reside in the
atmosphere for at least several hours. Aerosols may be of either
natural or anthropogenic origin.
Afforestation
Establishment of forest plantations on land that is not classified
as forest.
Alien species (also non-native, non-indigenous, foreign, exotic)
Species accidentally or deliberately introduced outside its normal
distribution.
Glossary
505
Aquatic ecosystem
Basic ecological unit composed of living and non-living elements
interacting in water.
Arable land
Land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted
only once), temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land
under market and kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow
(less than five years). The abandoned land resulting from shifting
cultivation is not included in this category.
Anthropocene
A term used by scientists to name a new geologic epoch
(following the most recent Holocene) characterized by significant
changes in the Earths atmosphere, biosphere and hydrosphere
due primarily to human activities.
Anthroposphere
The total human presence throughout the Earth System including
its culture, technology, built environment, and activities
associated with these. The anthroposphere complements the
term Anthropocene.
Billion
109 (1 000 000 000)
Bioaccumulation
The increase in concentration of a chemical in organisms. Also
used to describe the progressive increase in the amount of a
chemical in an organism resulting from rates of absorption of
a substance in excess of its metabolism and excretion.
Biocapacity
The capacity of ecosystems to produce useful biological materials
and to absorb waste materials generated by humans, using
current management schemes and extraction technologies. The
biocapacity of an area is calculated by multiplying the actual
physical area by the yield factor and the appropriate equivalence
factor. Biocapacity is usually expressed in units of global hectares.
Biodiversity (a contraction of biological diversity)
The variety of life on Earth, including diversity at the genetic
level, among species and among ecosystems and habitats. It
includes diversity in abundance, distribution and behaviour.
Biodiversity also incorporates human cultural diversity, which
can both be affected by the same drivers as biodiversity, and
itself has impacts on the diversity of genes, other species
and ecosystems.
Biofuel
Fuel produced from dry organic matter or combustible oils from
plants, such as alcohol from fermented sugar or maize, and oils
derived from oil palm, rapeseed or soybeans.
Biogas
Gas, rich in methane, which is produced by the fermentation
of animal dung, human sewage or crop residues in an airtight
container.
506
Glossary
Biogeochemical cycles
The flow of chemical elements and compounds between
living organisms (biosphere) and the physical environment
(atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere).
Biological corridor
A section of habitat designated to restore or conserve the
connection between habitats that have been fragmented by
human or natural causes.
Biomass
Organic material, above and below ground and in water, both
living and dead, such as trees, crops, grasses, tree litter and roots.
Biomagnification
The build up of certain substances in the bodies of organisms at
higher trophic levels of food webs. Organisms at lower trophic
levels accumulate small amounts. Organisms at the next higher
level of the food chain eat many of these lower-level organisms
and hence accumulate larger amounts. The tissue concentration
increases at each trophic level in the food web when there is
efficient uptake and slow elimination
Biome
The largest unit of ecosystem classification that is convenient to
recognize below the global level. Terrestrial biomes are typically
based on dominant vegetation structure (such as forest or grassland).
Ecosystems within a biome function in a broadly similar way, although
they may have very different species composition. For example, all
forests share certain properties regarding nutrient cycling, disturbance
and biomass that are different from the properties of grasslands.
Biosphere
The part of the Earth and its atmosphere in which living
organisms exist or that is capable of supporting life.
Biotechnology (modern)
The application of in vitro nucleic acid techniques, including
recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and direct injection
of nucleic acid into cells or organelles, or fusion of cells beyond
the taxonomic family, that overcome natural physiological,
reproductive or recombination barriers and that are not
techniques used in traditional breeding and selection.
Black carbon
Operationally defined aerosol based on measurement of light
absorption and chemical reactivity and/or thermal stability.
Black carbon is formed through the incomplete combustion
of fossil fuels, biofuel and biomass, and is emitted as part of
anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot. It consists of pure
carbon in several linked forms. Black carbon warms the Earth
by absorbing sunlight and re-emitting heat to the atmosphere
and by reducing albedo (the ability to reflect sunlight) when
deposited on snow and ice.
Blue water
Fresh surface and groundwater, in other words, the water in
freshwater lakes, rivers and aquifers. The blue water footprint
is the volume of surface and groundwater consumed as a result

of the production of a good or service. Blue water consumption
refers to the volume of freshwater used and then evaporated or
incorporated into a product. It also includes water abstracted
from surface or groundwater in a catchment and returned
to another catchment or the sea. It is the amount of water
abstracted from groundwater or surface water that does not
return to the catchment from which it was withdrawn.
Bleaching (of coral reefs)
A phenomenon occurring when corals under stress expel their
mutualistic microscopic algae, called zooxanthellae. This
results in a severe decrease or even total loss of photosynthetic
pigments. Since most reef-building corals have white calcium
carbonate skeletons, these then show through the corals tissue
and the coral reef appears bleached.
Capacity development
The process through which individuals, organizations and
societies obtain, strengthen and maintain the capabilities to
set and achieve their own development objectives over time.
Cap and trade (system)
A regulatory or management system that sets a target level for
emissions or natural resource use, and, after distributing shares
in that quota, lets trading in those permits determine their price.
Capital
Resource that can be mobilized in the pursuit of an individuals
goals. Thus, natural capital (natural resources such as land and
water), physical capital (technology and artefacts), social capital
(social relationships, networks and ties), financial capital (money
in a bank, loans and credit), human capital (education and skills).
Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-equivalent or CO2e)
The universal unit of measurement used to indicate the global
warming potential of the different greenhouse gases. Carbon
dioxide a naturally occurring gas that is a by-product of burning
fossil fuels and biomass, land-use changes and other industrial
processes is the reference against which other greenhouse
gases are measured.
Carbon sequestration
The process of increasing the carbon content of a reservoir other
than the atmosphere.
Civil society
The aggregate of non-governmental organizations and
institutions representing the interests and will of citizens.
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
The mechanism provided by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol,
designed to assist developing countries achieve sustainable
development by permitting industrialized countries to finance
projects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in developing
countries and receive carbon credits for doing so.
Climate change
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change defines climate
change as a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the
global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.
Climate proofing
A shorthand term for identifying risks to a development project,
or any other specified natural or human asset, as a consequence
of climate variability and change, and ensuring that those
risks are reduced to acceptable levels through long-lasting
and environmentally sound, economically viable, and socially
acceptable changes implemented at one or more of the following
stages in the project cycle: planning, design, construction,
operation, and decommissioning.
Climate variability
Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard
deviations and the occurrence of extremes) of the climate on all
temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather
events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes in the
climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or
anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
A group of chemicals, consisting of chlorine, fluorine and
carbon, highly volatile and of low toxicity, widely used in the
past as refrigerants, solvents, propellants and foaming agents.
Chlorofluorocarbons have both ozone depletion and global
warming potential.
Congener
A term in chemistry that refers to one of many variants or
configurations of a common chemical structure.
Carbon stock
The quantity of carbon contained in a pool, meaning a reservoir
or system which has the capacity to accumulate or release carbon.
Conservation tillage
Breaking the soil surface without turning over the soil.
Catchment (area)
The area of land from which precipitation drains into a river,
basin or reservoir. See also Drainage basin.
Consumptive water use

The use or removal of water from a water basin that renders it
unavailable for further use.
Certified emission reductions (CERs)

Certification of greenhouse gas emission reductions issued
pursuant to the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto
Protocol, and measured in tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Cross-cutting issue
An issue that cannot be adequately understood or explained
without reference to the interactions of several of its dimensions
that are usually defined separately.
Glossary
507
Crowd-sourcing
A problem-solving and production process that involves
outsourcing tasks to a network of people, also known as the
crowd. This process can occur both online and offline.
linked ecosystem services: primary production and nutrient

cycling. Four dryland sub-types are widely recognized: dry subhumid, semi-arid, arid and hyper-arid, showing an increasing
level of aridity or moisture deficit.
Cultural services
In the context of ecosystems, the non-material benefits for
people, including spiritual enrichment, cognitive development,
recreation and aesthetic experience.
Early warning
The provision of timely and effective information, through
identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to a
hazard to take action to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare
an effective response.
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYS)

The sum of years of potential life lost due to premature mortality
and the years of productive life lost due to disability.
Datum
A single piece of information used for reference or analysis.
Dataset
A collection of data on a particular issue.
DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane)
A synthetic organochlorine insecticide, one of the persistent
organic pollutants listed for control under the Stockholm
Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants.
Dead zone
A part of a water body so low in oxygen that normal life
cannot survive. The low-oxygen conditions usually result from
eutrophication caused by fertilizer run-off from land.
Deforestation
Conversion of forested land to non-forest areas.
Desertification
Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas
resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and
human activities. It involves crossing thresholds beyond which
the underpinning ecosystem cannot restore itself, but requires
ever-greater external resources for recovery.
Disaster risk reduction
The conceptual framework of elements intended to minimize
vulnerability to disasters throughout a society, to avoid (prevention)
or limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of
hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.
Drainage basin (also called watershed, river basin or catchment)
Land area where precipitation runs off into streams, rivers,
lakes and reservoirs. It is a land feature that can be identified
by tracing a line along the highest elevations between different
areas, often a ridge.
Driver
The overarching socio-economic forces that exert pressures on
the state of the environment.
Drylands
Areas characterized by lack of water, which constrain two major,
508
Glossary
Earth System
The Earth System is a complex social-environmental system of
interacting physical, chemical, biological and social components
and processes that determine the state and evolution of the
planet and life on it.
Ecoagriculture
An approach to landscape management that simultaneously
advances agricultural production, conservation of biodiversity
and ecosystem services, and sustainable rural livelihoods.
A measure of the area of biologically productive land and water
an individual, population or activity uses to produce all the
resources it consumes and to absorb the corresponding waste
(such as carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use), using
prevailing technology and resource management practices. The
ecological footprint is usually measured in global hectares.
Ecosystem
A dynamic complex of plant, animal and micro-organism
communities and their non-living environment, interacting as
a functional unit.
Ecosystem approach
A strategy for the integrated management of land, water and
living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable
use in an equitable way. An ecosystem approach is based on
the application of appropriate scientific methods, focused on
levels of biological organization that encompass the essential
structure, processes, functions and interactions among and
between organisms and their environment. It recognizes that
humans, with their cultural diversity, are an integral component
of many ecosystems.
Ecosystem function
An intrinsic ecosystem characteristic related to the set of
conditions and processes whereby an ecosystem maintains
its integrity (such as primary productivity, food chain and
biogeochemical cycles). Ecosystem functions include such
processes as decomposition, production, nutrient cycling,
and movements of nutrients and energy.
Ecosystem health
The degree to which ecological factors and their interactions
are reasonably complete and function for continued resilience,
productivity and renewal of the ecosystem.
Ecosystem management
An approach to maintaining or restoring the composition,
structure, function and delivery of services of natural and
modified ecosystems for the goal of achieving sustainability.
It is based on an adaptive, collaboratively developed vision
of desired future conditions that integrates ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional perspectives, applied within
a geographic framework, and defined primarily by natural
ecological boundaries.
Ecosystem resilience
The level of disturbance that an ecosystem can withstand without
crossing a threshold to become a different structure or deliver
different outputs. Resilience depends on ecological dynamics
as well as human organizational and institutional capacity to
understand, manage and respond to these dynamics.
Ecosystem services
The benefits of ecosystems. These include provisioning services,
such as food and water regulating services, such as flood and
disease control cultural services, such as spiritual, recreational
and cultural benefits and supporting services, such as nutrient
cycling, that maintain the conditions for life on Earth. Sometimes
called ecosystem goods and services.
Ecotourism
Travel undertaken to witness the natural or ecological quality of
particular sites or regions, including the provision of eco-friendly
services to facilitate such travel.
Effluent
In issues of water quality, refers to liquid waste (treated or
untreated) discharged to the environment from sources such as
industrial process and sewage treatment plants.
El Nio (also El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO))
In its original sense, it is a warm water current that periodically flows
along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the local fishery.
This oceanic event is associated with a fluctuation of the intertropical surface pressure pattern and circulation in the Indian and
Pacific Oceans, called the Southern Oscillation. This atmosphereocean phenomenon is collectively known as El Nio-Southern
Oscillation, or ENSO. During an El Nio event, the prevailing trade
winds weaken and the equatorial countercurrent strengthens,
causing warm surface waters in the Indonesian area to flow eastward
to overlie the cold waters of the Peru current off South America. This
event has great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature and
precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects
throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world.
The opposite of an El Nio event is called La Nia.
Emission inventory
Details the amounts and types of pollutants released into the
environment.
Endangered species
A species is endangered when the best available evidence
indicates that it meets any of the criteria A to E specified for
the endangered category of the IUCN Red List, and is therefore

considered to be facing a very high risk of extinction in the wild.
Environmental education
The process of recognizing values and clarifying concepts in
order to develop skills and attitudes necessary to understand
and appreciate the interrelatedness of humans, their culture and
biophysical surroundings. Environmental education also entails
practice in decision-making and self-formulation of a code of
behaviour about issues concerning environmental quality.
Environment statistics
Statistics that describe the state of and trends in the
environment, covering the media of the natural environment (air/
climate, water, land/soil), the living organisms within the media,
and human settlements.
Endocrine disruptor
An external substance that interferes (through mimicking,
blocking, inhibiting or stimulating) with function(s) of the
hormonal system and consequently causes adverse health effects
in an intact organism, or its progeny, or (sub) populations.
Energy intensity
Ratio of energy consumption to economic or physical output. At
the national level, energy intensity is the ratio of total domestic
primary energy consumption or final energy consumption to gross
domestic product or physical output. Lower energy intensity
shows greater efficiency in energy use.
Environmental assessment
The entire process of undertaking an objective evaluation and
analysis of information designed to support environmental
decision making. It applies the judgement of experts to
existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers
to policy -relevant questions, quantifying where possible the
level of confidence. It reduces complexity but adds value by
summarizing, synthesizing and building scenarios, and identifies
consensus by sorting out what is known and widely accepted
from what is not known or not agreed. It sensitizes the scientific
community to policy needs and the policy community to the
scientific basis for action.
Environmental impact assessment (EIA)
An analytical process or procedure that systematically
examines the possible environmental consequences of a
given activity or project. The aim is to ensure that the
environmental implications are taken into account before
the decisions are made.
Environmental flows
Quantity, timing and quality of water flows required to sustain
freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods
and well-being that depend on these ecosystems. Through
implementation of environmental flows, water managers strive
to achieve a flow regime, or pattern, that provides for human
uses and maintains the essential processes required to support
healthy river ecosystems.
Glossary
509
Environmental health
Those aspects of human health and disease that are determined
by factors in the environment. It also refers to the theory and
practice of assessing and controlling factors in the environment
that can potentially affect health. Environmental health includes
both the direct pathological effects of chemicals, radiation
and some biological agents, and the effects, often indirect,
on health and well-being of the broad physical, psychological,
social and aesthetic environment. This includes housing, urban
development, land use and transport.
Environmental monitoring
Regular, comparable measurements or time series of data on
the environment.
Environmental policy
A policy aimed at addressing environmental problems
and challenges.
Equity
Fairness of rights, distribution and access. Depending on context,
this can refer to access to resources, services or power.
Eutrophication
The degradation of water or land quality due to enrichment by
nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorous, which results in
excessive plant (principally algae) growth and decay. Eutrophication
of a lake normally contributes to its slow evolution into a bog or
marsh and ultimately to dry land. Eutrophication may be accelerated
by human activities that speed up the ageing process.
Evapotranspiration
Combined loss of water by evaporation from the soil or surface
water, and transpiration from plants and animals.
E-waste (electronic waste)
A generic term encompassing various forms of electrical and
electronic equipment that has ceased to be considered of value
and is disposed of.
External cost (also externality)
A cost that is not included in the market price of the goods and
services produced. In other words, a cost not borne by those who
create it, such as the cost of cleaning up contamination caused
by discharge of pollution into the environment.
Feedback
Where non-linear change is driven by reactions that either
dampen change (negative feedbacks) or reinforce change
(positive feedbacks).
Floods (river, flash and storm surge)
Usually classified into three types: river flood, flash flood and
storm surge. River floods result from intense and/or persistent
rain over large areas. Flash floods are mostly local events
resulting from intense rainfall over a small area in a short period
of time. Storm surge floods occur when floodwater from the
ocean or large lakes is pushed on to land by winds or storms.
510
Glossary
Food security
Physical and economic access to food that meets peoples
dietary needs as well as their food preferences.
Forest
Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5
metres and a canopy cover of more than 10 per cent, or trees able
to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is
predominantly under agricultural or urban use.
Forest degradation
Changes within the forest that negatively affect the structure or
function of the stand or site, and thereby lower the capacity to
supply products and/or services.
Forest management
The processes of planning and implementing practices for the
stewardship and use of forests and other wooded land aimed
at achieving specific environmental, economic, social and/or
cultural objectives.
Forest plantation
Forest stands established by planting and/or seeding in the
process of afforestation or reforestation. They are either of
introduced species (all planted stands), or intensively managed
stands of indigenous species, which meet all the following criteria:
contain one or two species, are of similar age and regularly spaced.
Planted forest is another term used for plantation.
Fossil fuel
Coal, natural gas and petroleum products (such as oil) formed
from the decayed bodies of animals and plants that died millions
of years ago.
Fuel cell
A device that converts the energy of a chemical reaction directly
into electrical energy. It produces electricity from external supplies
of fuel (such as hydrogen) and oxidant (such as oxygen). A fuel
cell can operate as long as the necessary flows are maintained.
Fuel cells differ from batteries in that they consume reactant,
which must be replenished, while batteries store electrical energy
chemically in a closed system. One great advantage of fuel cells
is that they generate electricity with very little pollution: much of
the hydrogen and oxygen used in generating electricity ultimately
combine to form water. Fuel cells are being developed as power
sources for motor vehicles, as well as stationary power sources.
Genetic diversity
The variety of genes within a particular species, variety or breed.
GEO Data Portal (now Environmental Data Explorer)
The source for datasets used by UNEP and its partners in the Global
Environment Outlook report and other integrated environmental
assessments. Its online database holds more than 500 different
variables, including national, sub-regional, regional and global
statistics as well as geospatial datasets (maps), covering themes
such as freshwater, population, forests, emissions, climate,
disasters, health and GDP. geodata.grid.unep.ch
Global commons
Natural un-owned assets such as the atmosphere, oceans, outer
space and the Antarctic.
Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
A network aiming to link existing and planned Earth observing
systems (e.g., satellites and networks of weather stations and
ocean buoys) around the world, support the development of
new systems where gaps currently exist, and promote common
technical standards so that data from the thousands of different
instruments can be combined into coherent datasets. It aims to
provide decision support tools to policy makers and other users
in areas such as health, agriculture and disasters.
Global hectare
A hypothetical hectare with world-average ability to produce
resources and absorb wastes.
Global (international) environmental governance
The assemblage of laws and institutions that regulate societynature interactions and shape environmental outcomes.
Global observation system
A set of coordinated monitoring activities that would collect much
needed data at a global scale on a variety of indicators such as
biodiversity, water quality and quantity, atmospheric pollution,
land degradation and chemical release.
Global public good
Public goods that have universal benefits, covering multiple
groups of countries and all populations.
Global warming
Increase in surface air temperature, referred to as the global
temperature, induced by emissions of greenhouse gases into the air.
Globalization
The increasing integration of economies and societies around
the world, particularly through trade and financial flows, and the
transfer of culture and technology.
Governance
The act, process, or power of governing for the organization
of society/ies. For example, there is governance through the
state, the market, or through civil society groups and local
organizations. Governance is exercised through institutions:
laws, property-rights systems and forms of social organization.
Greenhouse effect
A process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is
absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated
in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards
the surface and the lower atmosphere, it results in an elevation
of the average surface temperature above what it would be in the
absence of the gases.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
Gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and
anthropogenic, that absorb and emit thermal radiation. This

property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H2O),
carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and
ozone (O3) are the primary greenhouse gases in the Earths
atmosphere. There are human-made greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, such as halocarbons and other chlorine- and
bromine-containing substances. Beside CO2, N2O and CH4,
the Kyoto Protocol deals with sulphur hexafluoride (SF6),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and nitrogen
trifluoride (NF3).
Green water
The precipitation on land that does not run off or recharge the
groundwater but is stored in the soil or temporarily stays on top
of the soil or vegetation. Eventually, this part of precipitation
evaporates or transpires through plants. The green water
footprint is the volume of rainwater consumed during the
production process. This is particularly relevant for agricultural
and forestry products (products based on crops or wood), where
it refers to the total rainwater evapotranspiration (from fields
and plantations) plus the water incorporated into the harvested
crop or wood.
Grey water
Water the quality of which has been adversely affected by human
use, in industrial, agriculture or domestically. The grey water
footprint of a product is an indicator of freshwater pollution that
can be associated with the production of a product over its full
supply chain. It is defined as the volume of freshwater that is
required to assimilate the load of pollutants based on natural
background concentrations and existing ambient water quality
standards. It is calculated as the volume of water that is required
to dilute pollutants to such an extent that the quality of the water
remains above agreed water quality standards.
Ground-truthing
A process by which the content of satellite images, aerial
photographs or maps based on them is compared with the
reality on the ground through site visits and field surveys. It is
used to verify the accuracy of the images or the way they have
been interpreted to produce maps.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
The value of all final goods and services produced in a country in
one year. GDP can be measured by adding up all of an economys
incomes wages, interest, profits, and rents or expenditures
consumption, investment, government purchases, and net
exports (exports minus imports).
Groundwater
Water that flows or seeps downward and saturates soil or rock,
supplying springs and wells. The upper surface of the saturate
zone is called the water table.
Gyres
A large system of rotating ocean currents, primarily driven by
wind movement. Large gyres exist in the Indian Ocean, North
Atlantic, North Pacific, South Atlantic and South Pacific.
Glossary
511
Habitat
(1) The place or type of site where an organism or population
occurs naturally.
(2) Terrestrial or aquatic areas distinguished by geographic, living
and non-living features, whether entirely natural or semi-natural.
Hydrosphere
All of the Earths water, including surface water (water in oceans,
lakes and rivers), groundwater (water in soil and beneath
the Earths surface), snow, ice and water in the atmosphere,
including water vapour.
Habitat fragmentation
Alteration of habitat resulting in spatial separation of habitat
units from a previous state of greater continuity.
Hypoxia
Lack of oxygen. In the context of eutrophication and algal
blooms, hypoxia is the result of a process that uses up dissolved
oxygen in the water. Algal blooms cause water to become more
opaque, thereby reducing light availability to submerged aquatic
vegetation, and interfering with beneficial human water uses.
When the bloom dies off, algae sink to the bottom and are
decomposed by bacteria using up the available oxygen. Hypoxia
is particularly severe in the late summer, and can be so severe
in some areas that they are referred to as dead zones because
only bacteria can survive there.
Hard law
Legally binding obligations that are precise (or can be made
precise through adjudication or the issuance of detailed
regulations) and that delegate authority for interpreting and
implementing the law. In the context of international law, hard law
refers to treaties or international agreements, as well as customary
laws. These documents create enforceable obligations and rights
for states and other international entities. See also Soft law.
Hazard
A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human
activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage,
social and economic disruption or environmental degradation.
Improved drinking water

Improved sources of drinking water include piped water
into dwellings; piped water into yards/plots; public taps or
standpipes; tube wells or boreholes; protected dug wells;
protected springs; rainwater.
Hazardous waste
A used or discarded material that can damage human health and
the environment. Hazardous wastes may include heavy metals,
toxic chemicals, medical wastes or radioactive material.
Improved sanitation
Improved sanitation includes flush lavatories; piped sewer systems;
septic tanks; flush/pour flush to pit latrines; ventilated improved pit
latrines (VIP); pit latrines with slab; composting lavatories.
Heavy metals
A subset of elements that exhibit metallic properties, including
transitional metals and semi-metals (metalloids), such as arsenic,
cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel and zinc, that
have been associated with contamination and potential toxicity.
Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

Approaches that integrate economic, social and ecological
perspectives for the management of coastal resources and areas.
High seas
The oceans outside national jurisdictions, lying beyond each
nations exclusive economic zone or other territorial waters.
Human well-being
The extent to which individuals have the ability to live the kinds
of lives they have reason to value; the opportunities people
have to pursue their aspirations. Basic components of human
well-being include: security, meeting material needs, health and
social relations.
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
Organic and human-made substances composed of hydrogen,
chlorine, fluorine and carbon atoms. As the ozone-depleting
potential of HCFCs is much lower than that of CFCs, HCFCs were
considered acceptable interim substitutes for CFCs.
Hydrological cycle
Succession of stages undergone by water in its passage from
the atmosphere to the Earths surface and its return to the
atmosphere. The stages include evaporation from land, sea
or inland water, condensation to form clouds, precipitation,
accumulation in the soil or in water bodies, and re-evaporation.
512
Glossary
Integrated water resources management (IWRM)

A process which promotes the coordinated development and
management of water, land and related resources, in order
to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an
equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of
vital ecosystems.
Institutions
Regularized patterns of interaction by which society organizes
itself: the rules, practices and conventions that structure human
interaction. The term is wide and encompassing, and could be
taken to include law, social relationships, property rights and
tenurial systems, norms, beliefs, customs and codes of conduct
as much as multilateral environmental agreements, international
conventions and financing mechanisms. Institutions could be formal
(explicit, written, often having the sanction of the state) or informal
(unwritten, implied, tacit, mutually agreed and accepted). Formal
institutions include law, international environmental agreements,
bylaws and memoranda of understanding. Informal institutions
include unwritten rules, codes of conduct and value systems. The
term institutions should be distinguished from organizations.
IPCC scenarios
Six future-emission scenarios based on four scenario families
A1, A2, B1 and B2, where A represents globalized development,
B represents regionalized development, while 1 refers to

economic growth and 2 refers to environmental stewardship.
economic conditions, for the purpose of selecting and adopting

land-use options which are most beneficial to land users.
IPAT formulation
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology. An equation
developed in the 1970s to describe humanitys influence/impact
on the environment.
Legal regime
A system of principles and rules governing something, and which
is created by law. It is framework of legal rules.
Jevons paradox
The proposition that technological progress that increases the
efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather
than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource.
Legitimacy
Measure of political acceptability or perceived fairness. State law
has its legitimacy in the state; local law and practices work on
a system of social sanction, in that they derive their legitimacy
from a system of social organization and relationships.
Joint Implementation
A mechanism provided by Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol,
whereby a country included in Annex I of the UNFCCC may acquire
emission reduction units when it helps to finance projects that
reduce net emissions in another industrialized country.
Leverage point
A place in a systems structure where a relatively small amount of
force can effect change. It is a low leverage point if a small amount
of force causes a small change in system behaviour, or a high
leverage point if a small amount of force causes a large change.
Kuznets curve (environmental)

A relationship between economic development and environmental
pollution. Based on empirical evidence, some forms of local pollution
(airborne lead, sulphur) declined significantly in industrialized
countries despite robust economic growth. This follows a general
pattern of poor countries being relatively unpolluted, middle-income
countries more polluted, and rich countries clean again.
Life-cycle analysis
A technique to assess the environmental impacts associated
with all the stages of the life of a product from raw material
extraction through materials processing, manufacture,
distribution, use, repair and maintenance, and disposal or
recycling (cradle-to-grave).
Kyoto Protocol
A protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at the Third Session of the
Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It
contains legally binding commitments in addition to those included
in the UNFCCC. Countries included in Annex B of the protocol (most
OECD countries and countries with economies in transition) agreed
to control their national anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3) so that the total
emissions from these countries would be at least 5 per cent below
1990 levels in the commitment period, 2008 to 2012.
Land cover
The physical coverage of land, usually expressed in terms of
vegetation cover or lack of it. Influenced by but not synonymous
with land use.
Land degradation
The reduction or loss of the biological or economic productivity
and complexity in croplands, pastures, forest or woodlands
resulting from climate variability, natural processes, and
unsustainable human activities.
Land use
The functional dimension of land for different human purposes
or economic activities. Examples of land use categories include
agriculture, industrial use, transport and protected areas.
Land-use planning
The systematic assessment of land and water potential,
alternative patterns of land use and other physical, social and
Lifetime (in the atmosphere)

The approximate amount of time it takes for concentrations
of an atmospheric pollutant to return to the background level
(assuming emissions cease) as a result of either being converted
to another chemical compound or being taken out of the
atmosphere through a sink. Atmospheric lifetimes can vary from
hours or weeks (sulphate aerosols) to more than a century (CFCs).
Lithosphere
The outer part of the Earth, consisting of the crust and upper
mantle. It is about 55 km thick beneath the oceans and up to
about 200 km thick beneath the continents. The solid part of the
Earth, as contrasted with the atmosphere and hydrosphere.
Low emission zone (LEZ)
Urban areas where travel by polluting vehicles is limited or banned.
Low-impact pesticides
Pesticides considered to be of minimal risk compared to other
pesticides. In order for a pesticide to be truly low impact,
considerations beyond the choice of pesticide product must be
considered, including the timing, method and site of application.
Lyme disease
A multi-system bacterial infection caused by the spirochaete
Borrelia burgdoferi. These spirochaetes are maintained in nature
in the bodies of wild animals, and transmitted from one animal to
another through the bite of an infected tick. People and pets are
incidental hosts to ticks.
Mainstreaming
Taking into consideration as an integral part of the issue in question.
Glossary
513
Material flow accounting

The quantification of all materials used in economic activities.
It accounts for the total material mobilized during the extraction
of materials and for the materials actually used in economic
processes measured in terms of their mass.
Marine protected area (MPA)
A geographically defined marine area that is designated or regulated
and managed to achieve specific conservation objectives.
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
The eight Millennium Development Goals which range from
halving extreme poverty to halting the spread of HIV/AIDS and
providing universal primary education, all by the target date of
2015 form a blueprint agreed to by all the worlds countries and
all the worlds leading development institutions.
Mega-cities
Urban areas with more than 10 million inhabitants.
Mega-heatwave
An event with regional mean temperature anomalies (over an area
of ~1 million km2) of extraordinary amplitude (approximately 3 SD
(standard deviations)) at sub-seasonal scales, of at least 7 days.
Morphology
The branch of biology that deals with the form of living
organisms, and with relationships between their structures.
Multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs)
Treaties, conventions, protocols and contracts between several
states regarding specified environmental problems.
Nanomaterial
A natural, incidental or manufactured material containing
particles, in an unbound state, as an aggregate or as an
agglomerate and where, for 50 per cent or more of the particles in
the number size distribution, one or more external dimension is
in the size range 1100 nanometres (a nanometre is one billionth
of a metre). Such particles/materials are generally termed as
nanoparticles (NPs), nanochemicals or nanomaterials (NMs).
Natural capital
Natural assets in their role of providing natural resource inputs
and environmental services for economic production. Natural
capital includes land, minerals and fossil fuels, solar energy,
water, living organisms, and the services provided by the
interactions of all these elements in ecological systems.
Net primary productivity (NPP)
The rate at which all the plants in an ecosystem produce net
useful chemical energy. Some net primary production goes
toward growth and reproduction of primary producers, while
some is consumed by herbivores.
Nitrogen deposition
The input of reactive nitrogen, mainly derived from nitrogen oxides
and ammonia emissions, from the atmosphere into the biosphere.
514
Glossary
Non-state actors
Non-state actors are categorized as entities that (i) participate or act
in the sphere of international relations; organizations with sufficient
power to influence and cause change in politics which (ii) do not belong
to or exist as a state-structure or established institution of a state; do
not have the characteristics of this, these being legal sovereignty and
some measure of control over a countrys people and territories.
No-till (zero tillage)
A technique of drilling (sewing) seed with little or no prior land
preparation, which has a positive impact on soil erosion.
Nutrient pollution
Contamination of water resources by excessive inputs of nutrients.
Nutrients
The approximately 20 chemical elements known to be essential
for the growth of living organisms, including nitrogen, sulphur,
phosphorus and carbon.
Oil sands
A complex mixture of sand, water and clay trapping very heavy
oil, known as bitumen.
Organic agriculture
A production system that sustains the health of soils, ecosystems
and people. It relies on ecological processes, biodiversity
and cycles adapted to local conditions, rather than the use of
synthetic inputs.
Organic carbon (OC)
Organic carbon, as used in climate research, usually refers to
the carbon fraction of the aerosol that is not black. This term
is an oversimplification because organic carbon may contain
hundreds or thousands of different organic compounds with
varying atmospheric behaviour. It is the quantity that results from
thermal analysis of carbon aerosols.
Organizations
Bodies of individuals with a specified common objective.
Organizations could be political organizations, political
parties, governments and ministries; economic organizations,
federations of industry; social organizations (non-governmental
organizations (NGOs) and self-help groups) or religious
organizations (church and religious trusts). The term
organizations should be distinguished from institutions.
Organochlorine compounds
Any of a class of organic chemical compounds containing carbon,
hydrogen and chlorine, such as dioxins, poly-chlorinatedbiphenyls (PCBs) and some pesticides such as DDT.
Overexploitation
The excessive use of raw materials without considering the longterm ecological impacts of such use.
Overshoot
The situation that occurs when humanitys demand on the
biosphere exceeds supply or regenerative capacity. At the global

level, ecological deficit and overshoot are the same, since there
is no net import of resources to the planet.
institutional development. Policy can be seen as a tool for the

exercise of governance. When such an intervention is enforced by
the state, it is called public policy.
Ozone layer
A region of the atmosphere situated at an altitude of 1050
km above the Earths surface (called the stratosphere) which
contains diluted ozone.
Policy bank
A repository of good practices in policy development and
implementation, supported by facilitation services that help
stakeholders to identify relevant policy lessons and tools and
adapt them to local needs.
Participatory approach
Securing an adequate and equal opportunity for people to
place questions on an agenda and to express their preferences
about a final outcome during decision making to all group
members. Participation can occur directly or through legitimate
representatives. Participation may range from consultation to the
obligation of achieving a consensus.
Particulate matter (PM)
Tiny solid particles or liquid droplets suspended in the air.
Pastoralism, pastoral system
The husbandry of domestic animals as a primary means of
obtaining resources.
Pasture
Ground covered with grass or herbage, used or suitable for the
grazing of livestock.
Payment for environmental services/payment for ecosystem
services (PES)
Appropriate mechanisms for matching the demand for
environmental services with incentives for land users whose
actions modify the supply of those environmental services.
Permafrost
Soil, silt and rock located in perpetually cold areas, and that
remains frozen year-round for two or more years.
Persistent organic pollutants (POPs)
Chemical substances that persist in the environment,
bioaccumulate through the food web, and pose a risk of causing
adverse effects to human health and the environment.
Phytoplankton
Microscopically small plants that float or swim weakly in fresh or
saltwater bodies.
Planetary boundaries
A framework designed to define a safe operating space for humanity
for the international community, including governments at all levels,
international organizations, civil society, the scientific community and
the private sector, as a precondition for sustainable development.
Policy
Any form of intervention or societal response. This includes not
only statements of intent, but also other forms of intervention,
such as the use of economic instruments, market creation,
subsidies, institutional reform, legal reform, decentralization and
Policy dialogue
A platform for major stakeholders, such as government authorities
and non-governmental organizations, for awareness raising,
capacity building, policy-preparation and policy-implementation.
Policy diffusion
The process of a policy being taken up, copied, implemented in
other areas, fields, regions or sectors.
Polycentric
Having many centres, especially of authority or control.
Pollutant
Any substance that causes harm to the environment when it
mixes with soil, water or air.
Pollution
The presence of minerals, chemicals or physical properties at
levels that exceed the values deemed to define a boundary
between good or acceptable and poor or unacceptable quality,
which is a function of the specific pollutant.
Poverty
The state of one who lacks a defined amount of material
possessions or money. Absolute poverty refers to a state of lacking
basic human needs, which commonly include clean and fresh
water, nutrition, health care, education, clothing and shelter.
Precautionary approach/principle
The precautionary approach or precautionary principle states
that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm
to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific
consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of
proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action.
Prediction
The act of attempting to produce a description of the expected
future, or the description itself, such as it will be 30C tomorrow,
so we will go to the beach.
Premature deaths
Deaths occurring earlier due to a risk factor than would occur in
the absence of that risk factor.
Primary energy
Energy embodied in natural resources (such as coal, crude oil,
sunlight or uranium) that has not undergone any anthropogenic
conversion or transformation.
Glossary
515
Projection
The act of attempting to produce a description of the future
subject to assumptions about certain preconditions, or the
description itself, such as assuming it is 30C tomorrow, we will
go to the beach.
Protected area
A clearly defined geographical space, recognized, dedicated and
managed, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the
long-term conservation of nature with associated ecosystem
services and cultural values.
Propagation of effects
An impact at one level in a system, even a very small one, may
lead to larger changes as this impact moves up (or down) through
a system.
Provisioning services
The products obtained from ecosystems, including, for example,
genetic resources, food and fibre, and freshwater.
Public-private partnership
A contractual agreement between a public agency (federal, state
or local) and a private sector entity. Through such an agreement,
the skills and assets of each sector (public and private) are
shared in delivering a service or facility.
Public sector
The portion of society that comprises the general government
sector plus all public corporations including the central bank.
Purchasing power parity (PPP)
The number of currency units required to purchase an amount
of goods and services equivalent to what can be bought with
one unit of the currency of the base country, for example, the
US$.
Radiative forcing
A measure of the net change in the energy balance of the Earth
with space, that is, the change in incoming solar radiation minus
outgoing terrestrial radiation.
REDD/REDD+
in Developing Countries. REDD+ involves enhancing existing
forests and increasing forest cover. In order to meet these
objectives, policies need to address enhancement of
carbon stocks by providing funding and investments in
these areas.
Reforestation
Planting of forests on lands that have previously contained
forest, but have since been converted to some other use.
Remote sensing
Collection of data about an object from a distance. In the
environmental field, it normally refers to aerial or satellite data
for meteorology, oceanography or land cover assessment.
516
Glossary
Regulating services
The benefits obtained from the regulation of ecosystem
processes, including, for example, the regulation of climate,
water and some human diseases.
Renewable energy source
An energy source that does not rely on finite stocks of fuels.
The most widely known renewable source is hydropower; other
renewable sources are biomass, solar, tidal, wave and wind.
Resilience
The capacity of a system, community or society potentially exposed
to hazards to adapt by resisting or changing in order to reach and
maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure.
Resistance
The capacity of a system to withstand the impacts of drivers
without displacement from its present state.
Results-based management
A managerial approach that builds on defining realistic expected
results, monitoring progress towards their achievement,
integrating lessons learned into management decisions and
reporting on performance.
Riparian
Related to or located on the bank of a natural watercourse,
usually a river, but sometimes a lake, tidewater or enclosed sea.
River fragmentation
Degree to which river connectivity and flow regimes have been
altered, usually by dams and reservoirs.
Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine
Environment (ROPME) Sea Area
The sea area surrounded by the eight Member States of
the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine
Environment (ROPME): Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Run-off
A portion of rainfall, melted snow or irrigation water that flows
across the grounds surface and is eventually returned to
streams. Run-off can pick up pollutants from air or land and carry
them to receiving waters.
RUrbanism
An integration of urban and rural development in terms of
sustainable resource use and the convergence of human well-being.
Sahel
A loosely defined strip of transitional vegetation that separates
the Sahara desert from the tropical savannahs to the south.
The region is used for farming and grazing, and because of the
difficult environmental conditions at the border of the desert, the
region is very sensitive to human-induced land-cover change. It
includes parts of Senegal, the Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Chad.
Salinization/salination
The process by which water-soluble salts accumulate in the
soil. Salinization may occur naturally or because of conditions
resulting from management practices.
Scale
The spatial, temporal (quantitative or analytical) dimension used
to measure and study any phenomena. Specific points on a scale
can thus be considered levels (such as local, regional, national
and international).
Scenario
A description of how the future may unfold based on if-then
propositions, typically consisting of a representation of an initial
situation, a description of the key drivers and changes that lead to
a particular future state. For example, given that we are on holiday
at the coast, if it is 30C tomorrow, we will go to the beach.
Seagrass bed
Profusion of grass-like marine plants, usually on shallow, sandy
or muddy areas of the seabed.
Secondary pollutant
Not directly emitted as such, but forms when other pollutants
(primary pollutants) react in the atmosphere.
Security
Relates to personal and environmental security. It includes
access to natural and other resources, and freedom from
violence, crime and war, as well as security from natural and
human-caused disasters
Sequestration
In GEO-5, sequestration refers to the capture of carbon dioxide
in a manner that prevents it from being released into the
atmosphere for a specified period of time.
Sediment
Solid material that originates mostly from disintegrated rocks and
is transported by, suspended in or deposited from water, wind,
ice and other organic agents
Sedimentation
Strictly, the act or process of depositing sediment from
suspension in water or ice. Broadly, all the processes whereby
particles of rock material are accumulated to form sedimentary
deposits. Sedimentation, as commonly used, involves transport
by water, wind, ice and organic agents.
Service advertising
Advertising with a central focus on public welfare.
Sex-disaggregated data
Data separated by sex/gender in order to allow differential
impacts on men and women to be measured.
Shared waters
Water resources shared by two or more governmental jurisdictions.
Short-lived climate forcers

Substances such as methane, black carbon, tropospheric
ozone, and many hydrofluorocarbons, which have a significant
impact on climate change, and a relatively short lifespan in
the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide and other longerlived gases.
Silvopastoral strategy
The integration of trees and shrubs in pastures with animals for
economic, ecological and social sustainability.
Siltation
The deposition of finely divided soil and rock particles on the
bottom of stream and riverbeds and reservoirs.
Siting authority
A clearly defined and legitimate agency that authorizes
construction of, for example, electricity transmission equipment.
Social contract
A contract or agreement between people to form a society that
determines their moral and/or political obligations. Social
contracts can be formal or informal and define the relationship
between individuals and their government on the basis of
mutual consent.
Social learning
Process in which individuals observe the behaviour of others and
its consequences, and modify their own behaviour accordingly.
Social network
A social structure made up of a set of actors, such as individuals
or organizations, and the ties between these actors, such as
relationships, connections or interactions.
Soft law
Rules that are neither strictly binding in nature nor completely
lacking legal significance. They are weakened along one or more
of the dimensions of obligation, precision and delegation. In the
context of international law, soft law refers to guidelines, policy
declarations or codes of conduct which set standards of conduct.
However, they are not directly enforceable.
Soil acidification
A naturally occurring process in humid climates that has long
been the subject of research, whose findings suggest that acid
precipitation affects the productivity of terrestrial plants.
Species (biology)
An interbreeding group of organisms that is reproductively
isolated from all other organisms, although there are many
partial exceptions to this rule. A generally agreed fundamental
taxonomic unit that, once described and accepted, is associated
with a unique scientific name.
Species diversity
Biodiversity at the species level, often combining aspects of
species richness, their relative abundance and their dissimilarity.
Glossary
517
Species richness/abundance
The number of species within a given sample, community or area.
Strategic environmental assessment (SEA)
A range of analytical and participatory approaches that aim to
integrate environmental considerations into policies, plans and
programmes and evaluate the links with economic and social
considerations. An SEA is undertaken for plans, programmes
and policies. It helps decision makers reach a better
understanding of how environmental, social and economic
considerations fit together.
Stratospheric ozone depletion
Chemical destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer,
particularly by substances produced by human activities.
Structural adjustment
A process of market-oriented economic reform aimed at reducing
inflation and creating conditions for economic growth.
Supporting services
Ecosystem services that are necessary for the production of all other
ecosystem services. Some examples include biomass production,
production of atmospheric oxygen, soil formation and retention,
nutrient cycling, water cycling and provisioning of habitat.
Surface water
All water naturally open to the atmosphere, including rivers,
lakes, reservoirs, streams, impoundments, seas and estuaries.
The term also covers springs, wells or other collectors of water
that are directly influenced by surface waters.
Sustainability
A characteristic or state whereby the needs of the present
population can be met without compromising the ability of future
generations or populations in other locations to meet their needs.
Sustainable development
Development that meets the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
Management of agricultural and livestock resources to satisfy
human needs while maintaining or enhancing environmental
quality and conserving natural resources for future generations.
Sustainable forest management (SFM)
The stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way,
and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity,
regeneration capacity, vitality and potential to fulfill, now and in
the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions,
at local, national and global levels, and that does not cause
damage to other ecosystems.
Symbiotic relationship
A relationship between two different organisms living in close
physical association, typically to the advantage of both
518
Glossary
Synergies
These arise when two or more processes, organizations,
substances or other agents interact in such a way that the
outcome is greater than the sum of their separate effects.
System
A system is a collection of component parts that interact with one
another within some boundary.
Taxonomy
A system of nested categories (taxa) reflecting evolutionary
relationships or morphological similarities.
TechnoGarden
The TechnoGarden scenario depicts a globally connected world
relying strongly on technology and highly managed, often
engineered ecosystems, to deliver ecosystem services.
Technology
Physical artefacts or the bodies of knowledge of which they
are an expression. Examples are water extraction structures,
such as tube wells, renewable energy technologies and
traditional knowledge. Technology and institutions are related.
Any technology has a set of practices, rules and regulations
surrounding its use, access, distribution and management.
Technology effect
Reducing the net or at least per-person impact of resource
consumption due to technological innovations.
Technology transfer
A broad set of processes covering the flows of know-how,
experience and equipment among different stakeholders.
Temperate region
The region in which the climate undergoes seasonal change in
temperature and moisture. Temperate regions of the Earth lie
primarily between 30 and 60 latitude in both hemispheres.
Thermohaline circulation (THC)
Large-scale density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused by
differences in temperature and salinity. In the North Atlantic, the
thermohaline circulation consists of warm surface water flowing
northward and cold deep water flowing southward, resulting
in a net poleward transport of heat. The surface water sinks in
highly restricted sinking regions located in high latitudes. Also
referred to as the (global) ocean conveyer belt or the meridional
overturning circulation (MOC).
Threshold
The level of magnitude of a system process at which sudden or rapid
change occurs. A point or level at which new properties emerge in
an ecological, economic or other system, invalidating predictions
based on mathematical relationships that apply at lower levels.
Tipping point
The critical point in an evolving situation that leads to a new and
sometimes irreversible development.
Tokenism
The policy or practice of making only a symbolic effort.
Topography
The study or detailed description of the surface features of a region.
Toxic pollutants
Pollutants that cause death, disease or birth defects in
organisms that ingest or absorb them.
Traditional or local ecological knowledge
A cumulative body of knowledge, know-how, practices or
representations maintained or developed by peoples with
extended histories of interaction with the natural environment.
Transformation
State of being transformed. In the context of GEO-5,
transformation refers to a series of actions that explores
opportunities to stop doing the things that pull the Earth System
in the wrong direction and at the same time provide resources,
capacity and an enabling environment for all that is consistent
with the sustainable-world vision.
Transitions
Non-linear, systematic and fundamental changes of the
composition and functioning of a societal system with changes
in structures, cultures and practices.
Transpiration
The loss of water vapour from parts of plants, especially in leaves
but also in stems, flowers and roots.
Trillion
1012 (1 000 000 000 000)
Trophic level
Successive stages of nourishment as represented by the links of
the food chain. Put simply, the primary producers (phytoplankton)
constitute the first trophic level, herbivorous zooplankton the second
and carnivorous organisms the third trophic level.
Tropospheric ozone
Ozone at the bottom of the atmosphere, and the level at which
humans, crops and ecosystems are exposed. Also known as
ground-level ozone.
Urban sprawl
The decentralization of the urban core through the unlimited
outward extension of dispersed development beyond the
urban fringe, where low density residential and commercial
development exacerbates fragmentation of powers over land use.
Urbanization
An increase in the proportion of the population living in urban areas.
Virtual water trade
The idea that when goods and services are traded, the water
needed to produce them (embedded) is traded as well.
Vulnerability
An intrinsic feature of people at risk. It is a function of exposure,
sensitivity to impacts of the specific unit exposed (such as a
watershed, island, household, village, city or country), and the ability
or inability to cope or adapt. It is multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary,
multi-sectoral and dynamic. The exposure is to hazards such as
drought, conflict or extreme price fluctuations, and also to underlying
socio-economic, institutional and environmental conditions.
Wastewater treatment
Any of the mechanical, biological or chemical processes used to
modify the quality of wastewater in order to reduce pollution levels.
Water conflict
A confrontation between countries, states, or groups over water
resources.
Water footprint
An indicator of water use that looks at both direct and indirect
water use of a consumer or producer. The water footprint of an
individual, community, nation or business is defined as the total
volume of freshwater that is used to produce the goods and
services consumed by the individual, community or nation, or
produced by the business.
Water quality
The chemical, physical and biological characteristics of water,
usually in respect to its suitability for a particular purpose.
Water scarcity
Occurs when annual water supplies drop below 1 000 m3 per
person, or when more than 40 per cent of available water is used.
Water security
A term that broadly refers to the sustainable use and protection
of water systems, the protection against water related hazards
(floods and droughts), the sustainable development of water
resources and the safeguarding of (access to) water functions
and services for humans and the environment.
Water stress
Occurs when low water supplies limit food production and economic
development, and affect human health. An area is experiencing water
stress when annual water supplies drop below 1700 m3 per person.
Wetland
Area of marsh, fen, peatland, bog or water, whether natural or
artificial, permanent or temporary, with water that is static or
flowing, fresh, brackish or salt, including areas of marine water to
a depth, at low tide, that does not exceed 6 metres.
Woodland
Wooded land, which is not classified as forest, spanning more
than 0.5 hectares, with trees higher than 5 metres and a canopy
cover of 510 per cent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in
situ, or with a combined cover of shrubs, bushes and trees above
10 per cent. It does not include areas used predominantly for
agricultural or urban purposes.
Glossary
519
Index
A
abrupt change 196, 206, 401, 446

accelerating 23, 24, 44, 119120, 158, 194, 199, 336, 361, 336,
385, 401, 407, 420, 430, 477
acidification 23, 34, 38, 4143, 49, 99, 118, 120, 127, 129, 136,
143, 157, 207, 222, 262, 268, 294, 301, 425, 440
adapt 36, 101, 118, 119, 119, 125, 128, 143, 149, 154, 183, 204,
253, 267, 281, 319, 322, 323, 324, 326, 331, 333, 337,
338, 340, 392, 400, 409410, 441, 450451, 458, 475
adaptation 14, 19, 23, 77, 87, 88, 99, 100, 118, 119, 119,
128, 137, 146151, 153, 159, 160, 236239, 236, 244,
246, 248251, 252, 253, 260, 262263, 265266, 265,
267, 281, 282, 290, 294, 298, 312, 329, 334, 336337,
337, 338, 339340, 354, 383, 396, 401402, 403, 404
407, 413, 433, 434, 435, 438, 442, 442, 450, 450451,
460, 462, 465, 466, 475476, 476, 481, 482
adaptive 85, 87, 88, 91, 122, 128, 158, 160, 210, 210, 234,
251, 260, 265, 267, 281, 282, 284, 298, 322, 404, 409,
421, 444, 445, 450, 450, 451, 461, 470, 475, 882, 483
adaptability 331, 364, 378, 423, 450
adaptive governance 88, 210, 450, 450, 451, 460461, 482
adaptive management 85, 87, 91, 128, 158, 251, 281, 282,
284, 322, 331, 421, 445, 450451, 483
aerosols 41, 56, 60, 77, 117, 199, 275, 432
Afghanistan 24, 428
Africa 69, 11, 19, 41, 46, 46, 57, 61, 686, 7172, 81, 89,
102, 105, 108, 110, 115117, 117, 122, 123, 128, 149,
180181, 189, 203, 221, 225, 234235, 237, 239242,
245248, 252, 252,297, 333, 402, 405, 427, 429, 432,
434, 465, 467
Africa region 244
Central Africa 239, 241
East Africa 402
Eastern Africa 108, 122, 152, 241, 242, 244, 244, 252
North Africa 11
Northern Africa 102, 240, 241, 244, 427
South Africa 34, 240, 242, 242, 245, 247248, 247, 252,
253, 297, 402, 413
Southern Africa 74, 86, 108, 149, 235, 241242, 244
West Africa 225, 248, 251, 402
Western Africa 76, 107, 240241, 244
agriculture 8, 14, 23, 43, 44, 44, 51, 59, 61, 6869, 7677, 78, 79,
7981, 84, 86, 89, 100, 102104, 103, 105, 107, 125, 124,
136, 138, 139, 143, 146, 148, 150, 156, 159, 170, 180181,
196, 201, 204, 209, 210, 222, 236, 239, 242, 242, 248, 250,
251, 252, 263, 267, 273, 281, 282, 292, 298, 302, 304, 351,
353, 356, 361, 361, 404405, 434, 442443, 464, 477
agricultural expansion 7, 71, 75, 84, 89, 90, 251, 310
organic agriculture 334, 335, 336
sustainable agriculture 105, 138, 150, 312, 333, 334, 335
HIV/AIDS 6, 7
air quality 3234, 35, 39, 41, 4748, 48, 55, 57, 59, 59, 205,
219220, 224, 225, 265, 290, 293, 294, 298299, 299,
301302, 312313, 356, 385, 404, 407, 431
520
Index
Albania 292
Algeria 245, 292
alien species 75, 114, 134, 136, 138, 143, 151, 157, 159160,
222, 263, 265, 270, 391
Amazon 72, 72, 83, 86, 107, 154, 202203, 228, 320, 321, 330,
334, 338, 429, 449
Andean Community 225, 320, 332, 338
Angola 241, 251
Antarctic 25, 36, 5152, 5152, 54, 58, 61, 77, 119, 119, 168,
181, 196, 199, 200201, 200
Antigua and Barbuda 324
Antropocene 195
aquatic 43, 51, 100, 102103, 108, 112113, 114, 115, 119,
127, 129, 134135, 136, 143, 146, 149, 168, 170, 180,
196, 329, 362, 426, 440, 442
arable 14, 51, 88, 226, 242, 304, 333334, 364, 405, 433
arable land 14, 226, 304, 333334, 405, 433
Arctic 36, 38, 51, 76, 77, 77, 113, 113, 121, 143, 178, 197,
199200, 208
Argentina 69, 86, 150, 321, 321, 330, 332, 334, 335
Armenia 292, 294, 305, 413, 449
Asia and Pacific region 71, 76, 172, 206, 260, 262263, 274,
275, 280281, 403, 411412
Asia and the Pacific 41, 6869, 68, 71, 73, 104, 105, 114,
187, 227, 259260, 262263, 267, 268269, 271, 276,
280281, 282283, 401, 401, 403, 408411, 445
Asian Development Bank 225
Association of Caribbean States 371
Association of Southeast Asian Nations 225, 271
atmosphere 15, 25, 3133, 33, 34, 35, 36, 41, 43, 46, 4849,
51, 5658, 61, 7677, 118, 144, 149, 195196, 196, 197,
199, 203203, 218, 220,312, 375, 385, 401, 420, 425,
426, 442, 462, 462, 467, 467
atmospheric 25, 3234, 3335, 36, 38, 41, 43, 43, 44, 47,
49, 51, 51, 5659, 59, 60, 60, 61, 73, 100, 111, 124, 143,
149, 152, 196197, 199, 200, 268, 298, 298299, 365
atmospheric brown cloud 58, 60
Australia 9, 24, 36, 57, 7374, 88, 102, 106, 107, 114, 143
144, 153, 203204, 203, 272273, 278, 282283, 295,
297, 367, 412
Austria 292, 293
Azerbaijan 292
Bahamas 324
Bahrain 375, 380, 380, 383, 387, 391392, 392, 394, 396
Bangladesh 109, 181, 208, 271, 277, 277, 280, 282
Barbados 101, 324, 327, 329, 338, 339
Barbados Programme of Action for Small Island Developing
States 101
barley 4, 25
Belarus 292, 295, 306
Belgium 292
Belize 149, 321, 327, 330, 338
Benin 236
Bhutan 283, 424, 448
Bioaccumulation 178, 185
Biocapacity 206, 207, 443
biodiversity 5, 26, 3334, 34, 36, 41, 43, 44, 7273, 77, 81,
8485, 87, 89, 100, 115, 122, 125, 133135, 136137,
139, 139140, 140, 141, 143157, 144, 146, 148, 150,
151, 154, 157, 158, 159160, 198, 196197, 196, 200,
200, 200, 207209, 218, 219, 222, 225226, 234, 236,
238, 239250, 242244, 248, 263, 266270, 269,
271, 282, 291, 292293, 294, 298, 308313, 309, 310,
318319, 320, 321, 329, 329, 330331, 331333,
335336, 338, 329, 342, 355, 359, 362,374, 381382,
384, 391, 392393, 393, 396, 400402, 401, 403406,
408, 410411, 414, 420, 425, 426, 431432, 434, 436,
439440, 440, 442, 444445, 447, 451, 458, 461, 462,
463, 466467, 467, 471
biofuel 4, 15, 25,26, 66, 68, 71, 76, 80, 8284, 84, 8586, 88, 89,
91, 139, 152, 221, 224, 237, 266, 296, 302, 338, 435, 439
biomass 4, 10, 1416, 34, 47, 49, 61, 73, 121122, 143, 146
149, 153,157, 197, 204, 341, 367, 386, 428, 430, 442443
biophysical 5, 12, 14, 25, 6667, 69, 78, 81, 91, 146, 149, 195,
241, 382, 395, 432
biosphere 13, 27, 58, 182, 195196, 196, 197, 207, 331, 334,
361, 393, 423
biotechnology 138, 150, 480
black carbon 32, 41, 47, 56-58, 56-57, 59-60, 197, 199, 220, 431
blue water 102104, 102
Bolivia 324, 330, 334, 334, 338, 340, 341
Bosnia and Herzegovina 292
Brazil 910, 13, 1516, 69, 72, 83, 84, 86, 145, 150, 168,
174, 182, 297, 319, 321, 324, 327, 330, 332, 334, 335,
338339, 340342, 449
BRIC 16, 168, 174
Bulgaria 292
Burkina Faso 245, 246248, 250
Cameroon 239, 241, 248, 249, 252, 402

Canada 16, 18, 42, 7273, 77, 145, 150, 174, 200, 204, 205205, 225, 292, 295, 350360, 353, 361363, 363, 365,
367, 368, 405, 410, 412
cap-and-trade 282, 341, 350, 353354, 359
capacity building 23, 66, 8788, 89, 91, 98, 137, 156, 169, 171,
181, 186187, 189, 228, 242, 242, 263, 270, 278, 337, 338,
340, 341, 384, 407, 414, 446, 464465, 470471, 475, 476
Cape Verde 240
capital
finalcial 155, 266
human 360
natural 7879, 283, 318319, 337, 343, 404405,
407408, 411
carbon 45, 10, 1823, 21, 25, 3234, 3740, 41, 4344, 47,
49, 51, 54, 56-57, 5658, 5961,7174, 79, 82, 84, 85,
8788, 88, 91, 119, 122, 134,137, 142, 149, 151153,

172, 184, 186, 196197, 198, 199, 200, 202205, 208,
219222, 219, 238, 242244, 243, 260, 262, 265,
265268, 268, 271, 275, 278, 280281, 280, 282,
290, 295297, 299300, 302, 312,313, 322, 330, 331,
335336, 338339, 340, 341, 342, 350, 353356, 353,
354, 365, 374, 400, 403407, 413, 428, 430, 430432,
442, 44546, 449, 449, 451, 464, 466, 473, 474, 474
carbon dioxide/CO2 5, 32, 34, 73, 119, 144, 196, 219, 219, 243,
260, 262, 297, 331, 350, 365, 375, 403, 428
carbon dioxide equivalent 38, 39, 54, 354, 354, 413, 430
carbon footprint 390, 449, 449
carbon sequestration 4344, 73, 79, 8788, 134, 152, 221,
243, 243, 265, 268, 271, 312, 336, 338, 342, 350, 355,
383, 383, 407, 445
carbon sink 73, 76, 149, 197, 197, 200, 202203, 238
CARICOM 225, 320, 337
CBD/Convention on Biological Diversity 135, 138, 152157,
159160, 236, 238, 271, 282, 313, 329, 331332, 342,
462, 469, 471, 476,
Central African Republic 239
Chile 209, 210, 330, 339
China 8,911, 1418, 20, 24, 26, 42, 57, 78, 84, 104, 150, 168,
174, 182, 260, 262, 267, 271, 274, 274, 278, 278, 280,
282283, 297, 368, 403, 412, 449, 477
Chlorofluorocarbons 33, 51, 54, 464
cholera 116, 117, 117, 221
Clean Development Mechanism 40, 152, 266267, 282, 295,
297, 462, 466
climate change 5,9,1417, 25, 26, 3236, 3436, 34, 38,
4041, 5051, 5760, 59, 61, 73, 76, 81, 81, 8788, 89,
9899, 100, 101, 108109, 115, 117119, 122123,
125127, 128, 134, 136137, 139, 143, 148, 149, 151
153, 151, 158, 159160, 179180, 187, 197, 201205,
207, 209, 216, 219, 220, 222, 227, 234237, 236, 238,
239240, 244250, 254, 260, 262263, 262, 265267,
266268,270, 272, 278, 283, 281, 282, 284, 290, 293,
294, 295, 295, 298, 302, 309, 311313, 318319, 324,
326327, 329, 329, 331, 331, 333, 334, 336342, 352
354, 355, 361, 365366, 369, 375376, 378, 381383,
385387, 389, 400407, 401, 411, 414, 420, 425, 429,
431, 433, 435436, 438, 440, 444, 447, 458, 460461,
462, 464, 466, 466468, 468, 472, 476, 481
climate variability 34, 194, 208
coal 1415, 1920, 57, 121122, 182, 205206, 252, 276,
280, 301, 354355, 355, 365366,
coastal 8, 23, 7577, 79, 100, 100, 102, 107, 109, 111112,
111113, 114, 118120, 119, 122124, 123, 126127,
127, 136, 139, 143, 148149, 154, 177, 184, 189,
210, 225, 234, 236, 236, 238, 239, 241, 242, 44245,
244245, 248, 251, 252, 253, 263, 265, 268, 268, 269,
282, 292, 295, 302, 318, 319320, 323, 324, 327328,
330, 331332, 334, 337, 337338, 342, 358, 363, 374,
392393, 400, 402, 404406, 407, 408409, 414
Index
521
Colombia 80, 86, 321, 324, 330, 334335, 334, 338339,

340, 405
Common Agricultural Policy 84, 310
complex systems 23, 323, 401, 460
compliance 155, 170171, 189, 224, 241, 252, 265, 279281,
291, 295, 301, 302, 308, 341, 378, 381, 387, 391, 395,
411, 413
Congo 72, 239
Congo (Dem Rep of) 24, 86, 247248
connectivity 100, 242, 310, 329, 464, 473, 472
consumption and production 10, 14, 23, 60, 218, 326, 395, 401,
498, 411, 420, 441, 460
coral reef 25, 34, 82, 99, 119, 120, 127, 134, 136, 143, 145,
149, 155, 159, 177, 206, 222, 224, 242, 262, 265, 268,
329, 392, 403, 429, 440
corridor 133, 242, 268, 270, 310, 329, 330, 331, 336, 408
Costa Rica 80, 322, 323, 330, 332, 334, 335336, 338, 339
340
Cte dIvoire 248
Croatia 292, 295
Cuba 331, 334, 335, 338, 339, 339
cultural services 146, 208, 223
Cyprus 292
Czech Republic 292
dairy 7, 14, 26, 44, 80, 82, 88, 148

DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) 46, 47, 54, 116, 117, 437
DDT/dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane 112113, 178180,
178179, 180, 187
dead zone 111, 111, 127
deforestation 89,12, 16, 27, 66, 67, 71, 7273, 7576, 79,
82, 83, 8788, 89, 148149, 154, 157, 221, 228, 238,
243244, 270, 279, 282, 322, 333, 335337, 338, 342,
405, 408, 414, 426, 429430, 465, 478
Democratic Republic of the Congo 24, 86, 247248
Denmark 9, 114, 292, 304, 304, 367, 412
desertification 67, 67, 75, 8888, 137, 148, 203, 219, 245, 319,
333, 375376, 382384, 382, 385, 406, 425426, 458,
461, 462, 463, 466, 467, 467, 471
Dominican Republic 333, 405
driver 3, 4, 5, 9, 10,12, 19, 21, 2325, 24, 26, 32, 34, 40, 58,
66, 7273, 75, 82, 85, 89, 91, 99100, 106, 115, 127,
127, 139, 150151, 156, 158, 159160, 174, 194195,
198, 208, 210, 217, 217, 222, 232, 237, 241, 251, 260,
261, 262, 270, 281, 337, 343, 375, 382, 395, 400403,
408409, 411, 422423, 425, 427428, 436, 446,
448450, 460461, 482
dryland 68, 7375, 74, 79, 8788, 88, 89, 144, 203204,
221,244, 249, 249, 336, 382
e-waste 24, 169, 175, 177, 184, 187, 188, 277, 283
early warning 128, 338, 339, 402, 471, 476
Earth System 5, 12 130, 193195, 196, 199202, 206210,
208, 253, 401, 420, 422, 446, 451, 471, 482
Ecological footprint 11, 77, 144, 159, 206, 207
economic downturn 338, 358
522
Index
ecosystem restoration 238, 246, 250, 251

ecosystem services 36, 66, 67, 72, 76, 79, 7980, 79, 8586,
88, 89, 91, 98, 100, 102, 120, 128129, 135, 136137,
139, 145150, 146, 156158, 158, 216, 238, 242244,
243, 253254, 265, 268, 270, 271, 281, 282, 291, 294,
309, 319, 322, 324325, 325, 329, 330, 331333, 332,
332, 334, 335337, 340, 342, 342, 350, 352353,
358359, 361, 369, 393, 403408, 414, 440441, 445,
449, 451, 458, 460, 462, 474
ecosystem-based adaptation 149, 150, 260, 267
ecotourism 149, 321, 335336, 392
Ecuador 86, 321, 324,325, 330, 334, 338-339, 444
Egypt 245, 292
El Nio 327
El Salvador 330, 334
emerging issues 47, 56, 67, 168, 183, 220, 222, 290, 293
enabling conditions 253, 284, 313, 323, 325, 336, 379381,
384, 402, 409, 412, 460461, 482
endangered species 138, 151, 164, 203, 270, 462, 467
environmental assessment 183, 219, 227228, 237, 278, 293,
387, 406407, 410, 465, 465, 472, 473, 474
environmental cooperation 352353, 357, 411
environmental education 227, 293, 321323, 321, 338, 343, 406
environmental governance 87, 169, 264, 265, 277, 281, 284,
290, 292293, 302, 312313, 318322, 320321, 323,
325, 343, 351353, 351, 369, 374, 376, 379, 384, 395,
400, 401, 402404, 406407, 409411, 414, 464466,
472474, 472, 473, 479, 481, 481
environmental targets 224, 292
equity 80, 90, 115, 135, 154155, 236, 242, 253254, 262,
270, 280, 282, 318, 321, 323, 325, 329, 331, 332,
334335, 337, 343, 358359, 409, 411, 420, 451, 471,
475, 479
Eritrea 246
erosion 16, 24, 69, 77, 79, 111, 137, 140, 148, 208, 249, 252,
332, 334, 336, 356, 360, 382, 383, 384, 396
Estonia 154, 292
Ethiopia 245, 246, 248, 249, 249, 250, 298, 402
Europe
European Commission 123, 177, 186, 219, 223, 225, 298, 471
European Environment Agency 181, 218, 225
European Union 16, 42, 75, 83, 84, 120, 180, 218, 251, 290,
292, 292, 404, 471, 481
eutrophication 34, 43, 63, 82, 110111, 111, 139, 197, 294, 303, 352
externality 369
feedback 4, 23, 88, 194, 196, 460, 480, 481

fertilizer 109, 143, 178, 182, 185, 356, 359, 401
Fiji 269
Finland 292, 311
food security 126, 281, 325, 332, 340, 378, 383
forest degradation 79, 87, 89, 238, 243, 270, 322, 408
forest management 73, 271, 291, 330, 333, 340, 342, 439, 442
Former Yugoslav Republic of/FYR Macedonia 292, 295
fossil fuel 38, 41, 73, 82, 195, 197, 205, 352, 365, 367, 403
France 16, 292, 367, 412, 448, 473
freshwater 14, 36, 41, 43, 71, 75, 82, 243, 245, 404, 405, 407
Gambia 240, 246

genetic diversity 136137, 144, 150, 157, 159, 332, 426
Georgia 292, 353
Germany 16, 83, 292, 297, 298, 367, 404, 412
Ghana 24, 86, 241242, 246, 248, 465
glaciers 118119, 118, 181, 197, 222, 222, 429
Global commons 99, 201, 424, 460461
Global Earth Observation System 462
globalization 4, 5, 14, 19, 20, 26, 66, 67, 85, 173, 320, 321, 403
genetic modification/GMO 134, 150, 150
governance 321, 323, 324, 376, 425, 445, 450, 451
Greece 292
green economy 60, 90, 98, 146, 280, 284, 350, 351, 352, 355, 355,
395, 423, 451, 451, 471, 474475, 475, 479, 480, 482
green water 102, 104, 197
greenhouse effect 200
greenhouse gas/GHG 1112, 1720, 21, 2324, 3338, 3536,
38, 41, 4344, 49, 5758, 61, 69, 73, 77, 82, 84, 88,
117, 182, 189, 220, 262, 262, 265268, 268, 276, 278,
282, 294295, 295296, 300, 302, 312, 332, 334, 338,
335336, 340341, 341, 353357, 355, 359, 364367,
369 385, 387388, 390, 402, 404, 407, 424, 426, 429,
430433, 439, 442443, 447, 471, 474, 481
grey water 104, 438, 442
groundwater 9, 23, 69, 101, 102104, 103104, 106, 109110,
109, 118, 120121, 126, 128129, 133, 148, 180,
205206, 216, 219, 221, 241, 273, 294, 302, 327, 361,
376, 378381, 378, 379,381, 383, 383, 425, 436
growth
Guatemala 86, 332, 332, 334335, 334
Guinea 240241, 240, 244, 251
Guinea Bissau 240
Guyana 334
habitat loss 134, 139, 142, 148, 150, 158, 158, 329, 329, 332,
342, 439440
habitat fragmentation 263
Haiti 24, 117, 227
herbicide 25, 69, 150, 180, 334
Honduras 330, 341
human health 16, 23, 26, 3233, 35, 4143 41, 43, 46, 4649,
49, 51, 54, 5657, 8182, 100, 100, 102, 108, 110,
112, 114, 116, 126127, 128, 135, 146, 150, 150, 168,
170172, 172173, 175, 178, 178, 181186, 186188,
204, 206, 220, 223, 237, 238, 251, 264, 274, 276278,
290, 292, 298, 306, 308, 342, 350, 352, 354, 356, 395,
426, 477478
human rights 4, 7, 24, 86, 154, 234, 238, 241, 246247, 246,
249, 253254, 402, 477478, 479480
Hungary 292, 303, 482
husbandry 147, 151, 336, 385, 435
Iceland 292, 295, 297, 469

India 911, 1418, 36, 59, 77, 84, 86, 88, 104, 109, 115,
145, 152, 168, 174, 196, 222, 242, 244, 262, 267, 270,
272273, 275, 275, 277, 279, 280, 282, 283, 297, 298,
434, 445, 450, 456, 463, 477
Indonesia 14, 72, 82, 84, 86, 182, 187, 262, 267, 268, 268, 280,
282283, 403, 447
industrialization 23, 50, 118, 274, 390, 404
invasive species 4, 5, 15, 114, 124, 139, 139, 143, 150, 151,
222, 270, 329
Iran 73, 74, 88
Iraq 375376, 390, 393
Ireland 292
Italy 16, 292, 309, 367, 412
Jamaica 330, 334

Japan 9, 10, 40, 54, 113114, 122 129, 134,154, 276, 278, 282,
284, 295, 300, 338,367, 412
Jevons paradox 12
Jordan 278, 292, 375376, 376, 378380, 378, 384, 385,
386389, 389390, 392, 470
Kazakhstan 283, 292

Kenya 154, 240, 248, 248, 365
Kuwait 375, 387, 390, 391, 413, 414
Kuznets 12, 12, 20, 428
Kyoto Protocol 35, 39, 58, 152, 268, 295, 337
land acquisition 85, 86, 91, 359

land cover 5, 18, 68, 77, 79, 85, 219, 221, 225, 275
land deals 66, 86, 88, 221, 237, 246
land degradation 26, 66, 67, 68, 216, 374
land use planning 334, 383
landscape
Lao Peoples Democratic Republic 270
Latvia 292
Lebanon 292, 375376, 379380, 382, 388
leverage point 5, 23, 26, 420, 422, 455, 448, 450
Libya 241, 292
Liechtenstein 292, 297
life-cycle analysis 176, 176, 274
Lithuania 292
Luxembourg 292
Madagascar 157, 242, 242, 245

maize 4, 14, 15, 25, 68, 69, 82, 334, 433
Malawi 246
Malaysia 86, 140, 247
Maldives 268, 282, 403, 403, 473, 474
Mali 239, 246, 247, 250
Malta 292
mangrove 100, 177, 252,262, 268, 402, 403
marine protected area/MPA 239, 240, 240, 244, 321, 330, 374,
390, 391, 393, 396, 401
material flow accounting 11, 173, 207
Mauritania 239, 240
Mauritius 251, 402
Index
523
meat 7, 13, 14, 19, 83, 270, 335, 383, 432, 435
mega-cities 284
methane 5, 12, 37, 49, 76, 298, 299, 300, 431, 435
Mexico
migration 6, 7, 8, 9, 20, 201, 217, 228, 335, 389, 439
Millennium Development Goals/MDG 7, 34, 34, 135, 171, 184,
218, 225,
mining 103, 109, 113, 188, 265, 266, 306, 333, 334
mitigation 434, 435, 438, 439, 442, 444, 458, 465, 468
model/modelling 25, 50, 58, 59, 129, 241, 291, 355, 432
Monaco 292, 295
Mongolia 271, 282
monitoring 293, 297, 302, 321, 338, 339, 381, 470, 471, 471
Montenegro 292, 295
Morocco 245, 292, 465
Mozambique 243, 246, 246, 251
multilateral environmental agreements 100, 127, 171, 171, 176,
320, 462, 463, 467
Myanmar 412
Namibia 246, 248, 253

nanotechnology 144, 169, 183
natural capital 283, 318, 337, 343
Nepal 221, 270, 271, 279, 283, 410, 414
Netherlands 219, 292
New Zealand 149, 278, 283
Nicaragua 29, 330, 334, 334, 335, 340
Niger 241, 246, 478
Nigeria 181, 236, 241, 246, 251
Nitrogen 14, 4546, 61, 129, 294, 298, 299, 300, 304
Nitrogen dioxide/NO2 44, 61
Nitrogen deposition 34, 43, 51, 139, 143, 159
Nitrous oxide 23, 43, 44, 76, 152, 431, 435
Norway 20, 282, 292, 295, 297
Nutrient pollution 111, 111
Oats 4, 25
Oil 14, 13, 24, 25, 77, 82, 84, 86, 237, 240, 242
Oil sands 367
Oman 375380, 390, 407
Organic agriculture 334, 335, 336
Organic carbon 73, 76
Organochlorine 113, 113, 180
ozone depleting substance 32, 57
ozone layer 33, 35, 51, 52, 54, 57, 58, 201
Panama 149, 321, 330, 336, 336, 340, 447

Paraguay 330, 335
particulate matter/PM 32, 34, 4142, 46, 46, 47 48, 5859,
61, 220, 294, 298, 300, 302
pasture 68, 68 , 80, 235, 246, 251, 335, 336, 434, 442
pathways 136, 143, 151, 208, 330, 423, 425, 427, 441, 444,
445, 448
payment for ecosystem services/PES 80, 89, 214, 238, 242, 243,
244, 253, 265, 271
524
Index
permafrost 37, 76, 77, 194, 196, 197, 200, 222

persistent organic pollutant/POP 168, 171, 171172, 178, 178, 184
Peru 122, 321, 324, 330, 334, 334, 338, 339, 340
pesticide 23, 25, 69, 143, 150, 168, 172, 356, 463, 467
Philippines 153, 177, 273, 282, 283
phosphorus 111, 356
Poland 292, 310
policy bank 475
policy responses 4, 26, 160, 217, 253, 260, 261, 407409
pollutants 100, 112, 220, 224, 264, 272, 292, 301, 426, 431
population 510, 12, 14, 15, 18, 19, 23, 327, 440
Portugal 292, 294, 311, 368, 412
poverty 319, 329, 330, 332, 336, 337, 340, 343, 382, 385
precautionary principle 91
precipitation 71, 107, 115, 118, 118, 119, 128, 375, 384, 436
primary energy 35, 350, 367, 385, 387, 389, 431, 443
protected areas/PA 85, 151, 152, 238, 240, 244, 250, 251
provisioning services 146, 148, 158
public-private partnership 244, 251, 360, 369, 375, 391, 461,
475, 482
Qatar 375, 391
radiative forcing 32, 49

REDD+ 87, 242, 243, 244, 248, 265, 265
regulating services 145, 223
renewable energy 280, 282, 294, 297, 298, 312, 337, 338,
341, 386
Republic of Korea 4, 276, 278, 278, 280, 282283,
Republic of Moldova 292, 295
resource efficiency 12, 128, 222, 264, 306, 444, 445
rice 4, 14, 15, 59, 153 263, 334, 335, 431
Rio+20 232, 458, 472, 483
river fragmentation 108, 108, 352
Romania 292, 303, 310
run off 9, 88, 196, 236, 238, 241, 249, 289
Russian Federation 177, 180, 292, 295, 306307, 435
Rwanda 254
Saint Lucia 321, 327, 329

salinization/salination 79, 208, 225, 338, 382, 326, 436
Samoa 282283
sanitation 376, 377, 378, 424, 425, 426, 428, 437438, 442,
451, 475
Saudi Arabia 375, 378, 379, 380, 381, 386, 390
savannah 73, 203, 206
Senegal 182, 239, 246, 248, 402
sequestration 265, 271, 331, 336, 338, 342, 350, 383, 383, 445
Serbia 292, 303
sewage 110112 129,149, 178, 274, 305, 306
Singapore 280, 282283
Slovakia 292
Slovenia 292
small island developing states 101, 107, 119, 119, 319, 327
soil erosion 16, 69, 148, 332, 334, 356, 396
sorghum 4, 25, 250

soy/soybean/soya 4, 25, 68, 72, 83, 83, 86, 88, 297
soy moratorium 83
Spain 292, 297, 473, 479
species abundance 158, 439
Sri Lanka 271, 273, 282
stratospheric ozone 32, 33, 35, 5051, 51, 58, 61, 200201, 207
Sudan 237, 251
supporting services 146, 342, 365
surface water 69, 99, 102103, 110, 181, 206, 221, 239, 376, 403
sustainable agriculture 138, 150, 312, 333, 334, 335, 405
sustainable cities
Sustainable development goals/SDG 87, 391, 427, 458, 471,
473, 482
Sweden 56, 292
Switzerland 292, 295, 297, 472
Syrian Arab Republic/Syria 292, 375, 278380, 382, 383,
386389, 393
Tajikistan 292
technology transfer 58, 265, 282283, 337, 341, 345, 409, 476,
475476
Thailand 40, 145, 262, 282283, 412
threshold 33, 42, 46, 54, 59, 83, 140, 146, 158, 198, 208, 401,
425, 429, 443, 446, 450
tipping points 4, 23, 33, 37, 158, 206, 401, 422
Togo 250
Tonga 282283
traditional knowledge 135, 137 151, 154155, 158, 160, 222,
240, 269, 420, 448, 475
transformative
Trinidad and Tobago 322, 330
tropospheric ozone 32,34, 41, 43, 48, 49, 49, 50, 57, 58, 59, 61, 220
Tunisia 245, 292
Turkey 73, 292
Turkmenistan 292
Uganda 88, 122, 226, 246247, 368, 412

Ukraine 290, 294295, 303, 310
United Arab Emirates 375, 378379, 390, 391, 393, 430
United Kingdom/UK 16, 17, 40, 47, 292, 474
United Republic of Tanzania/Tanzania 9, 154, 224, 228, 248, 297
United States of America/US 4, 7, 11, 1520, 57, 72, 77, 8183,
89, 150, 161, 204206, 360365, 367, 376, 445, 473, 481
urbanization 5, 11, 1418, 66, 105, 107, 109, 118, 234, 260,
260, 262, 274, 318319, 325, 327, 375356, 382, 385,
388, 390, 393, 395
Uruguay 330, 333, 335, 338, 341, 405
Uzbekistan 273, 282, 292
vegetation 39, 49, 69, 74, 76, 77, 88, 148, 203204, 203,
332, 361, 382, 383, 414
Viet Nam 270, 280, 282, 403
payement for ecosystem services 271
virtual water 98, 104106, 105, 106, 128, 381
wastewater 48, 104, 109, 110, 129,265, 273, 274, 324, 327,
376, 379381, 380, 402, 408, 430, 438, 442
water footprint 104105, 105
and demand 103
Network 219
water quality 100,100, 105 109110, 113114, 116, 119, 120
121, 122, 127, 128129, 205, 221, 236, 237, 238, 240,
252, 351, 358360, 362, 369, 403, 406, 412, 426, 436
water quantity 79
water stress 74, 369, 115, 123, 129, 436438, 437, 438, 442, 444
water thermal/hydro power 121
water competition and conflict 125
well being 2, 17, 26, 33, 36, 6769, 77, 85, 104, 126127,
134135, 194, 199, 201, 203204, 222, 206208,
234236, 247, 266, 270, 313, 322, 332, 382, 395, 418,
421, 425, 445,450451, 458459, 461, 470472, 471,
475, 478, 482
biodiversity 139, 146147
environmental 81
Ogoni people 246
Global Biodiversity Assessment 140
environmental sustainability 26
measures of 26
water 101, 122, 128
economic 332
terrestrial 339
land policy 334
organic agriculture 334
ecological 477
environmental justice 477
West Asia/West Asian countries 68, 73, 102, 105, 107, 114, 225,
372, 374376, 376, 377, 382, 384388, 385, 391396,
395, 401, 406413, 427
rainfall 38
wheat 4, 25,49, 59, 69, 239, 381, 381, 406, 433
Yemen 374376, 378379, 378, 381382, 390391, 393

youth 6, 335, 449
Zambia 465
Zimbabwe 182, 248, 465
Index
525

The Fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO-5)

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Environment for the future we want

First published by the United Nations Environment Programme in 2012

Printed and bound in Malta by Progress Press Ltd, Malta

Environment for the future we want

Amir El-Sammak, Tom P. Evans, C. Max Finlayson,

High-Level Intergovernmental Advisory Panel

Scientific Peer-Reviewers (Coordinated by

Rajender Ahlawat, Hussein A. Al-Gunied, Mohammed Saif Al-Kalbani,

Science and Policy Advisory Board

Data and Indicators Working Group

Coordinating Lead Authors

Keigo Akimoto, Mahmoud Ali, Erik Ansink, Masroor Ellahi Babar,

provided the necessary funding for the production of GEO-5 and

Global Environment Outlook 5

Part 1: State and Trends of the Environment

Part 2: Policy Options

Part 3: Global Responses

Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation

The GEO-5 Process

Thermal power and hydropower plant locations and water

Recent flood events in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region..........202

Sites designated under the Habitats Directive and

Population and income projections in the scenario

Mutually reinforcing outcomes through effective

Enhancing traditional water harvesting practices in

Payment for ecosystem services (PES) in support of

Identifying financial flows for environmental response............466

Technology Mechanism at the UNFCCC....................................476

themes for Rio+20. The summit is about taking stock and

GEO-5 adds new dimensions to the discourse through its

In summary, science must underpin policy making, but as five

When nations take stock of sustainable development 20 years

Another GEO-5 innovation is that it highlights a regional selection

United Nations Under-Secretary General and Executive Director

THE SCIENCE-POLICY CONTEXT

At the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human

scientific and conservation communities. As an initial step,

goals and targets but also the development of specific goals

The main goal of UNEPs Global Environment Outlook (GEO) is to

The GEO-5 report is made up of 17 chapters organized into three

Part 1 State and trends of the global environment

To explore todays rapidly changing socio-economic conditions,

overarching socio-economic forces that exert varying degrees of

Part 2 Policy options from the regions

Part 2 of GEO-5, Chapters 914, presents an appraisal of policy

Following a screening exercise, policies or policy clusters that either

possible to apply a consistent appraisal methodology due to

Figure 1 The GEO-5 DPSIR conceptual framework

Material, human and social capital

Change in human well-being

Demographic, social (institutional)

broadly dened as human freedoms of

Ecological services such as provisioning

State and trends (s)

Environmental impacts and change

Source: 2012 United Nations Environment Programme DEWA/ GRID-Geneva