Management Meet Note

February 27, 2012

Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Unrated NA NA NA

HDFC Ltd (HDFC)

| 676

Key Financials
| crore NII PPP PAT FY08 2641 2769 2436 FY09 3054 3269 2283 FY10 3388 3974 2827 FY11 4247 4937 3535

Growth momentum to continue

We met the management of HDFC Ltd (HDFC) to get an insight into its growth plans, the state of the housing finance industry and the companys current state of affairs. HDFC is the largest mortgage finance company in India with an outstanding loan book of | 1322 billion as on Q3FY12 mainly providing loans for the purchase or construction of residential houses to individuals. It has a pan-India network of 304 outlets including 74 outlets belonging to its wholly owned distribution company. Over a period of time, it has also emerged as a financial conglomerate with interests beyond mortgages (as depicted in exhibit 4). It has a track record of consistent growth in business, strong asset quality, stable margins, ability to raise funds easily and healthy return ratios, which enables it to command high valuations. Credit growth to continue undeterred The management has reiterated that HDFCs standalone operations will continue to grow at 15-20% in the next four or five years (grew at 25% CAGR in the last five years), owing to improved affordability, increasing urbanisation, favourable demographics, tax incentives and housing shortage in India. Mortgages as a percentage of GDP in India are just 9% compared to China, Korea, the US and UK where it is 20%, 26%, 81% and 88%, respectively, indicating huge potential for growth. During 9MFY12, the loan growth was 21% to | 1322 billion. Asset quality to remain solid As on Q3FY12, HDFC had witnessed the 28th consecutive quarter wherein percentage of non-performing loans has been lower than the corresponding quarter in the previous year. GNPA was at 0.82% while NNPA was nil as on Q3FY12 with PCR of 100%. This has been possible due to a conservative loan profile wherein maximum loan to value is 80% (average loan to value is 66%), an experienced appraisal team, cash flow based lending and strong in-house recovery and follow up team. We believe HDFC will continue to have a healthy asset quality. Well established subsidiaries to add to future profit and valuation HDFC has three major subsidiaries namely HDFC Standard Life, HDFC Asset Management and HDFC Ergo General Insurance, which already have a strong foothold and market share in the country. Its current stake in HDFC bank is 23.2%.
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance
FY08 Net Profit (| crore) EPS (|) 2436.3 17.2 39.4 8.1 83.1 8.1 0.8 0.2 3.2 27.8 FY09 2282.6 16.0 42.1 7.4 91.8 7.4 0.8 0.1 2.5 18.2 FY10 2826.5 19.7 34.3 6.5 105.0 6.4 0.8 0.1 2.6 20.0 FY11 3535.0 24.1 28.1 5.9 118.0 5.7 0.8 0.0 2.8 21.7 9MFY12 2796.0 19.0 26.7 5.1 132.0 5.1 0.8 0.0 2.6 20.0

Stock data
Market Capitalisation GNPA (Q3FY12) NNPA (Q3FY12) 52 week H/L Equity capital Face value DII Holding (%) FII Holding (%) | 99483 crore | 1109 crore NA 736/601 | 294.8 Crore |2 28.7 59.0

Price movement
7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 Aug-11 Nov-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Feb-12 900 700 500 300 100

HDFC (R.H.S)

Nifty (L.H.S)

Analysts name
Kajal Gandhi [email protected] Vasant Lohiya [email protected] Jaymin Trivedi [email protected]

P/E (x) Price / Book (x) ABV (Rs) Price / Adj Book (x) GNPA (%) NNPA (%) RoNA (%) RoE (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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HDFC with its strong brand equity, stable and experienced management, high service standards, consistent track record in earnings and business growth, stable asset quality and attractive return ratios has commanded premium valuations. We believe that with the housing finance market still under-penetrated, long term sustainable and visible growth potential exists for HDFC. Currently, the investments (mainly subsidiaries and associates) contribute 15% to profit but the management expects the share to go up significantly in the next five years and also lead to value unlocking. At the CMP of | 676, the stock is trading at 28x FY11 EPS and 5.7x P/BV of its FY11 book value. Excluding the valuation of subsidiaries and associates of ~| 200/share of HDFC, the standalone housing finance business is trading at 4x FY11 BV.
Exhibit 2: Healthy advances growth of 20% CAGR over FY07 to 9MFY12
140000 120000 100000 (| crore) 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 FY08 FY09 Advances FY10 FY11 9MFY12 73328 29.8 85198 19.6 16.2 15.0 97967 21.2 132208 117127 35 30 25 (%) 20 15 10 5 0

Advances Growth YoY (RHS)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Stable asset quality, provision coverage of 100%

0.9 0.8 120 90 (%) 60 0.2 0.1 0.0 FY08 FY09 Provision coverage (RHS) FY10 FY11 GNPA ratio 0.1 0.0 0.0 9MFY12 NNPA ratio 30 0

0.8 88.6

0.8 83.7

0.6 (%) 75.7 0.3

0.8 100.0

0.8 100.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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Exhibit 4: Major stakes in subsidiaries and associates

HDFC

HDFC Bank 23.2%

HDFC Standard Life 72.4%

HDFCAsset Management 60%

HDFC ERGO General 74%

GRUH Finance 60.4%

HDFC Property Venture 100%

HDFC Venture Capital 80.5%

Credila Financial Services 62.3%

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 [email protected] ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Kajal Gandhi CA Vasant Lohiya CA Jaymin Trivedi MBA-CM research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

[email protected]

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