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    Issues in Labor ST Atistics: Ranks of Those Unemployed For A Year or More Up Sharply

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    The number of long-term unemployed workers in the U.S. has sharply increased since the recession began in 2007. In the second quarter of 2010, 4.5 million people had been unemployed for over a year, compared to 645,000 in 2007. This represents 30.9% of the total unemployed, a record high. Men aged 25-54 were somewhat overrepresented among the long-term unemployed. The rise in long-term unemployment may be due to firms hiring those unemployed for shorter periods first, as well as declining worker turnover rates during the recession.

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    Issues in Labor ST Atistics: Ranks of Those Unemployed For A Year or More Up Sharply

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    The number of long-term unemployed workers in the U.S. has sharply increased since the recession began in 2007. In the second quarter of 2010, 4.5 million people had been unemployed for over a year, compared to 645,000 in 2007. This represents 30.9% of the total unemployed, a record high. Men aged 25-54 were somewhat overrepresented among the long-term unemployed. The rise in long-term unemployment may be due to firms hiring those unemployed for shorter periods first, as well as declining worker turnover rates during the recession.

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    The number of long-term unemployed workers in the U.S. has sharply increased since the recession began in 2007. In the second quarter of 2010, 4.5 million people had been unemployed for over a year, compared to 645,000 in 2007. This represents 30.9% of the total unemployed, a record high. Men aged 25-54 were somewhat overrepresented among the long-term unemployed. The rise in long-term unemployment may be due to firms hiring those unemployed for shorter periods first, as well as declining worker turnover rates during the recession.

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    19 views4 pages

    Issues in Labor ST Atistics: Ranks of Those Unemployed For A Year or More Up Sharply

    Uploaded by

    jmac1212
    The number of long-term unemployed workers in the U.S. has sharply increased since the recession began in 2007. In the second quarter of 2010, 4.5 million people had been unemployed for over a year, compared to 645,000 in 2007. This represents 30.9% of the total unemployed, a record high. Men aged 25-54 were somewhat overrepresented among the long-term unemployed. The rise in long-term unemployment may be due to firms hiring those unemployed for shorter periods first, as well as declining worker turnover rates during the recession.

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    Issues in Labor Statistics

    U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Summary 10-10 / October 2010

    BLS

    Ranks of those unemployed for a year or more up sharply


    The number of long-term unemployed workers has increased sharply since the recession began in December 2007.1 In the second quarter of 2010, about 46 percent of the 14.6 million unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or longer and about 31 percent were unemployed for 52 weeks or longer. This report focuses on the latter group those who have been jobless for a year or more.2 The number of persons jobless for a year or more rose from 645,000 in the second quarter of 2007 to 4.5 million in the second quarter of 2010. The groups share of total unemployment jumped from 9.5 percent to a record high of 30.9 percent. (See chart 1.) As a share of the labor force, the proportion jobless for a year or longer rose from 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2007 to 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010, also a record high for the series. (See chart 2.) Some researchers have attributed the rise in long-term unemployment to the tendency of firms to hire individuals who have been jobless for shorter durations first, thus increasing the share of unemployed persons who have been jobless for very long periods.3 Others have found that declining worker turnover rates have led to increased unemployment durations for those workers who involuntarily lost their job during the recent recession.4 It also has been suggested

    that the availability of extended unemployment insurance benefits has contributed to the increase in unemployment duration, although some researchers have argued that the extension of unemployment benefits has had a limited impact on unemployment duration in the recent recession.5 Among the major worker groups, men made up 61.3 percent of those unemployed for a year or more, compared with 58.1 percent of total unemployment in the second quarter of 2010. (See table 1.) Persons aged 25 to 54 and 55 years and older also were somewhat overrepresented among those jobless for a year or more.6 Persons aged 16 to 24 accounted for a considerably smaller share of year-or-longer unemployment than of total unemployment, partially a reflection of the fact that younger persons are more likely to drop out of the labor force than the older unemployed.7 The underrepresentation of youth among those unemployed for a year or longer also likely reflects the highly seasonal nature of the youth labor force, which grows sharply during the summer months and recedes with the beginning of the school year.8 By race, Whites made up nearly 74 percent of all unemployed persons and 70 percent of those jobless for a year or more. Blacks accounted for 19.1 percent of total unemployment and made up 22.7 percent of the ranks of those unemployed for a year or more. Persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity made up 16.7 percent of those jobless

    Issues in Labor Statistics October 2010


    Ranks of unemployed for a year or more up sharply

    Chart 1. Duration of unemployment, not seasonally adjusted, second quarter 200710


    Unemployment (In thousands) 16,000
    14,000 12,000
    14.4%

    14.2% 30.9%

    10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0


    9.5% 7.7%

    14.8% 9.8% 8.8% 71.4% 81.4% 82.8% 54.2%

    QII 2007 1-26 weeks

    QII 2008

    Quarter

    QII 2009 52 weeks or more

    QII 2010

    27-51 weeks

    NOTE: Totals may not sum to 100.0 percent due to rounding, SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

    Chart 2. Unemployment rate and percent of the labor force jobless for 1 year or more, 19672010
    Percent 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Unemployed 1 year or more Unemployment rate

    1994 CPS redesign

    1967 1970 1973

    1976 1979 1982

    1985 1988 1991

    1994 1997 2000

    2003

    2006 2009

    NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey (CPS). All estimates are not seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

    Issues in Labor Statistics October 2010


    Ranks of unemployed for a year or more up sharply

    for a year or more, compared with 18.4 percent of unemployed persons. By educational attainment, the distribution of those jobless for a year or more was similar to the distribution for total unemployment. (See table 1.) Joblessness for a year or longer has increased regardless of educational attainment. In summary, the number of persons unemployed for a year or longer has increased considerably since the onset of the recession in December 2007. In the second quarter of 2010, the share of the labor force unemployed for a year or longer reached a

    record high. Men and persons aged 25 and older were somewhat overrepresented among those jobless for a year or more. This Issues paper was prepared by Thomas Luke Spreen, an economist in the Division of Labor Force Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. Email: [email protected]; Telephone: (202) 691-6378. Information in this summary will be made available to sensory-impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200. Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339. This report is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission.

    Table 1. Distribution of unemployment by selected characteristics, not seasonally adjusted, second quarter 2010
    (Levels in thousands) Unemployed Characteristic Sex Total, 16 years and older Men Women Age 1624 years 2554 years 55 years and older Race and Ethnicity White Black or African American Asian Hispanic or Latino Educational attainment Total, 25 years and over Less than a high school diploma High school graduates, no college Some college or associate degree College graduates 10,575 1,688 3,929 2,934 2,024 100.0 16.0 37.2 27.7 19.1 3,744 573 1,451 1,021 699 100.0 15.3 38.8 27.3 18.7 10,773 2,796 535 2,695 73.7 19.1 3.7 18.4 3,165 1,026 208 756 70.0 22.7 4.6 16.7 4,046 8,576 1,999 27.7 58.7 13.7 779 2,928 816 17.2 64.7 18.0 14,621 8,491 6,130 100.0 58.1 41.9 4,523 2,773 1,750 100.0 61.3 38.7 Total unemployed Number Percent distribution Unemployed 52 weeks or more Number Percent distribution

    NOTE: Totals may not sum to 100.0 percent due to rounding. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. High school graduates include persons with a high school diploma or equivalent. College graduates include persons with a bachelors, masters, professional, or doctoral degree. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

    Issues in Labor Statistics October 2010


    Ranks of unemployed for a year or more up sharply

    Notes
    1 On September 20, 2010 the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009.

    research/commentary/2010/2010-11.cfm (visited September 17, 2010).


    5 See Rob Valletta and Katherine Kuang, Extended Unemployment and UI Benefits, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, April 2010, on the Internet at http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-12. html (visited September 17, 2010). See also Michael Elsby, Bart Hobijn, and Ayegl ahin, The Labor Market in the Great Recession, NBER Working Paper No. 15979, May 2010, on the Internet at http://www.nber.org/papers/w15979 (visited September 17, 2010). 6 For more information on older workers in the current recession, see Emy Sok, Record unemployment among older workers does not keep them out of the job market, Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 1004, March 2010, on the Internet at http://www. bls.gov/opub/ils/pdf/opbils81.pdf (visited September 17, 2010). 7 See Randy Ilg, Long-term unemployment experience of the jobless, Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 1005, June 2010, on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/ opub/ils/pdf/opbils82.pdf (visited September 17, 2010). 8 See Employment and Unemployment Among Youth - Summer 2010 on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/youth.pdf (visited September 17, 2010).

    As measured by the Current Population Survey, a person is counted as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. The duration of unemployment represents the length of time (through the current reference week) that individuals classified as unemployed have been looking for work and refers to job searches in continuous progress rather than the duration of a completed spell. All estimates in this report are not seasonally adjusted.
    2

    See Daniel Aaronson, Bhashkar Mazumder, and Shani Schechter, What is Behind the Rise in Long-term Unemployment? Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 2nd Quarter 2010, on the Internet at http:// www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2010/2qtr2010_part1_aaronson_mazumder_ schechter.pdf (visited September 17, 2010).
    3 4 See Murat Tasci and Saeed Zaman, Unemployment after the Recession: A New Natural Rate?, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, September 2010, on the Internet at http://www.clevelandfed.org/

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