Great Economists and their Times

1730

1990

Introduction
The word economics is derived from oikonomikos, which means skilled in household management. Although the word is very old, the discipline of economics as we understand it today is a relatively recent development. Modern economic thought emerged in the 17th and 18th centuries as the western world began its transformation from an agrarian to an industrial society. Despite the enormous differences between then and now, the economic problems with which society struggles remain the same: How do we decide what to produce with our limited resources? How do we ensure stable prices and full employment of our resources? How do we provide a rising standard of living both for ourselves and for future generations?

Progress in economic thought toward answers to these questions tends to take discrete steps rather than to evolve smoothly over time. A new school of ideas suddenly emerges as changes in the economy yield fresh insights and make existing doctrines obsolete. The new school eventually becomes the consensus view, to be pushed aside by the next wave of new ideas. This process continues today and its motivating force remains the same as that three centuries ago: to understand the economy so that we may use it wisely to achieve societys goals.
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MERCANTILISTS Mercantilism was the economic philosophy adopted by merchants and statesmen during the 16th and 17th centuries. Mercantilists believed that a nations wealth came primarily from the accumulation of gold and silver. Nations without mines could obtain gold and silver only by selling more goods than they bought from abroad. Accordingly, the leaders of those nations intervened extensively in the market, imposing tariffs on foreign goods to restrict import trade, and granting subsidies to improve export prospects for domestic goods. Mercantilism represented the elevation of commercial interests to the level of national policy. PHYSIOCRATS Physiocrats, a group of 18th century French philosophers, developed the idea of the economy as a circular flow of income and output. They opposed the Mercantilist policy of promoting trade at the expense of agriculture because they believed that agriculture was the sole source of wealth in an economy. As a reaction against the Mercantilists copious trade regulations, the Physiocrats advocated a policy of laissez-faire, which called for minimal government interference in the economy. CLASSICAL SCHOOL The Classical School of economic theory began with the publication in 1776 of Adam Smiths monumental work, The
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"Wealth of Nations". The book identified land, labor, and capital as the three factors of production and the major contributors to a nations wealth. In Smiths view, the ideal economy is a self-regulating market system that automatically satisfies the economic needs of the populace. He described the market mechanism as an invisible hand that leads all individuals, in pursuit of their own self-interests, to produce the greatest benefit for society as a whole. Smith incorporated some of the Physiocrats ideas, including laissez-faire, into his own economic theories, but rejected the idea that only agriculture was productive.
While Adam Smith emphasized the production of income, David Ricardo focused on the distribution of income among landowners, workers, and capitalists. Ricardo saw a conflict between landowners on the one hand and labor and capital on the other. He posited that the growth of population and capital, pressing against a fixed supply of land, pushes up rents and holds down wages and profits. Thomas Robert Malthus used the idea of diminishing returns to explain low living standards. Population, he argued, tended to increase geometrically, outstripping the production of food, which increased arithmetically. The force of a rapidly growing population against a limited amount of land meant diminishing returns to labor. The result, he claimed, was chronically low wages, which prevented the standard of living for most of the population from rising above the subsistence level.

Adam Smith Scotland, 1723/1791 The father of modern economics, he saw the market system acting as an "invisible hand" which leads people to unintentionally promote society's interests while pursuing their own.

1730

Decade opens with Peace in Europe Benjamin Franklin begins Poor Richards Almanack in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania John Kay patents flying shuttle, a major landmark in textile mass production, leading to textile mills in England Voltaire writes Lettres sur les Anglais championing democratic government David Hume creates empiricist philosophy in his Treatise on Human Nature War of Jenkins Ear begins when England declares war on Spain

1740

War of the Austrian Succession breaks out among major European powers War of Jenkins Ear spreads to Florida and Georgia Johann Sebastian Bach issues second volume of The Well-Tempered Clavier The Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle ends War of the Austrian Succession. Major powers again at peace in Europe David Hartley writes Observations on Man, arguing that ones moral sense is derived from an association of ideas

1750

Interest on Britains national debt falls from 10% to 3% Denis Diderot and Jean dAlembert begin publishing Encyclopedia Ben Franklin flies kite with key proving that lightning is like an electric spark Samuel Johnson publishes Dictionary of the English Language. Economist Francois Quesnay founds the Physiocrats, who advocate laissez-faire economic policies Claude-Adrien Helvetius publishes Delesprit, arguing that self-interest is the primary motive of human conduct

1760

Seven Years War ends with the Treaty of Paris and the Treaty of Hubertusberg J. J. Rousseau publishes The Social Contract, arguing that government must rest on the consent of the governed Joseph Priestley issues an Essay on First Principles of Government, anticipating Jeremy Benthams ideal of greatest happiness for the greatest number Boycott of imports begins in Boston to oppose tax on lead, paint, paper and tea

1770

Boston Tea Party protests tea tax in America after its repeal in England First Continental Congress meets in Philadelphia and writes a Declaration of Rights and Grievances Revolutionary War begins in Concord, Massachusetts Continental Congress on July 4, 1776 adopts the Declaration of Independence Adam Smith writes Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations

1780

Revolutionary troops defeat British at Yorktown, Virginia, to gain independence Immanuel Kant publishes Critique of Pure Reason Britain, USA, France and Spain sign the Treaty of Versailles recognizing the independence of the United States of America First paddle wheel steamboat sails on the Saone River, France U.S. Constitution signed in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and ratified within a year French Revolution begins in 1789 with the storming of the Bastille prison

1790

Dollar becomes the currency unit of the USA Eli Whitney invents the cotton gin Thomas Paine writes The Age of Reaso Napoleonic Wars rage throughout Europe following the end of the French Revolution British Government introduces income tax Thomas Malthus completes Essay on the Principle of Population

1800

Napoleonic Code, a system of laws, is introduced in France USA buys Louisiana Territory from France Jean-Baptiste Say writes Treatise on Political Economy Lewis and Clark expedition explores and maps western continental USA Ludwig von Beethoven publishes 5th and 6th symphonies

1810

Spains South American colonies struggle to gain independence Walter Scott publishes Waverley beginning popularity of historical romance novel

David Ricardo England, 1772/1823 His theory that landlords enriched themselves at the expense of society led him to campaign tirelessly in Parliament and in print for free trade. Thomas Malthus England, 1766/1834 A Classical economist, he startled early 19th century society with his pessimistic prediction that population growth would exceed food supply, condemning mankind to misery.

Malthus also questioned the automatic tendency of a market economy to produce full employment. He blamed unemployment upon the economys tendency to limit its spending by saving too much, a theme that lay forgotten until John Maynard Keynes revived it in the 1930s. Coming at the end of the Classical tradition, John Stuart Mill parted company with the earlier classical economists on the inevitability of the distribution of income produced by the market system. Mill pointed to a distinct difference between the markets two roles: allocation of resources and distribution of income. The market might be efficient in allocating resources but not in distributing income, he wrote, making it necessary for society to intervene. MARGINALIST SCHOOL Classical economists theorized that prices are determined by the costs of production. Marginalist economists emphasized that prices also depend upon the level of demand, which in turn depends upon the amount of consumer satisfaction provided by individual goods and services. Marginalists provided modern macroeconomics with the basic analytic tools of demand and supply, consumer utility, and a mathematical framework for using those tools. Marginalists also showed that in a free market economy, the factors of production -- land, labor, and capital -- receive returns equal to

John Stuart Mill England, 1806/1873 The last of the great economists of the Classical School, he denied the doctrine that society could not alter the existing distribution of income.

1810 (continued)

British invade USA and burn Washington, DC, in War of 1812. Treaty of Ghent ends war Wellington defeats Napoleon at Waterloo. Napoleonic Wars end with the Congress of Vienna deciding the future map of Europe David Ricardo publishes Principles of Political Economy and Taxation

1820

Thomas Robert Malthus publishes Principles of Political Economy Michael Faraday develops primitive electric motor The Monroe Doctrine expresses USAs opposition to extension of European influence in the Western hemisphere Erie Canal is opened for shipping Webster publishes American Dictionary of the English Language Western Australia colonized by British The Workingmans Party formed in New York

1830

The Baltimore and Ohio becomes first railroad in USA Louis Jacques Daguerre invents the first practical photographic process Cyrus McCormick patents a mechanical reaper Samuel Colt patents his revolver Samuel Morse develops telegraph and Morse Code for sending and receiving messages Isaac Pitman develops a system of shorthand writing Victoria becomes Queen of England

1840

John Stuart Mill publishes Principles of Political Economy Potato crop failure in Europe causes an estimated 2.5 million to starve Gold is discovered in California Factory Act in Britain limits the working day of women and children to 10 hours Series of republican revolutions in Europe end in failure and repression Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels publish Communist Manifesto John Deere invents plow with a steel mold-board Amelia Bloomer introduces trousers for women called Bloomers

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their contributions to production. This principle was sometimes used to justify the existing distribution of income: that people earned exactly what they or their property contributed to production. MARXIST SCHOOL The Marxist School challenged the foundations of Classical theory. Writing during the mid-19th century, Karl Marx saw capitalism as an evolutionary phase in economic development. He believed that capitalism would ultimately destroy itself and be succeeded by a world without private property. An advocate of a labor theory of value, Marx believed that all production belongs to labor because workers produce all value within society. He believed that the market system allows capitalists, the owners of machinery and factories, to exploit workers by denying them a fair share of what they produce. Marx predicted that capitalism would produce growing misery for workers as competition for profit led capitalists to adopt labor-saving machinery, creating a reserve army of the unemployed who would eventually rise up and seize the means of production.

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Karl Marx Germany, 1818/1883 Intellectual father of modern day Marxist economics, he predicted that capitalism would be ultimately destroyed by its own inherent contradictions.

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1850

Old-Age insurance introduced in France Harriet Beecher Stowe publishes Uncle Toms Cabin Elisha Otis demonstrates safety elevator at New York Fair of 1854 Florence Nightingale pioneers modern nursing during the Crimean War Henry Bessemer revolutionizes steel industry with new converter process Charles Darwin publishes On the Origin of the Species by means of Natural Selection First oil well in USA is drilled in Titusville, Pennsylvania

1860

Civil War begins at Fort Sumter, South Carolina Issuance of Greenbacks to help finance the Civil War marks the beginning of modern currency in USA Etienne Lenoir invents internal combustion engine in France National Banking Act establishes a system of federally-chartered banks in the USA Civil War ends when South surrenders at Appomattox Courthouse, Virginia Karl Marx begins writing Das Kapital Alfred Nobel invents dynamite Union Pacific and Central Pacific railroads meet in Utah

1870

The Standard Oil Company is founded by John D. Rockefeller City of Chicago destroyed by fire Germany adopts the mark as its currency Financial panic in Europe spreads to USA, causing withdrawal of foreign capital Alexander Graham Bell invents telephone Thomas Alva Edison invents the phonograph and electric light bulb

1880

American Federation of Trades and Labor is founded William LeBaron Jenney builds first skyscraper in Chicago, Illinois France presents the Statue of Liberty to the USA Louis Pasteur successfully uses vaccination against rabies

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INSTITUTIONALIST SCHOOL Institutionalist economists regard individual economic behavior as part of a larger social pattern influenced by current ways of living and modes of thought. They rejected the narrow Classical view that people are primarily motivated by economic self-interest. Opposing the laissez-faire attitude towards governments role in the economy, the Institutionalists called for government controls and social reform to bring about a more equal distribution of income.

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Leon Walras France, 1834/1910 He revolutionized economics with his rigorous mathematical formulation of the mechanics of the price system.

Alfred Marshall England, 1842/1924 He demonstrated the tremendous theoretical power of demand and supply Thorstein Veblen curves, and bequeathed to economics United States, 1857/1929 the critical distinction between the short One of the leading Institutionalists, he is best remembered run and the long for his theory of run. "conspicuous consumption" which parodied the ostentation of the Gilded Age.

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1880 (continued)

Heinrich Hertz identifies radio waves Gottlieb Daimler builds first automobile Eiffel Tower is built in Paris for World Exposition of 1889

1890

Labor unrest erupts in USA when workers strike the Carnegie Steel Company Alfred Marshall publishes Principles of Economics The Sierra Club is founded by John Muir Sigmund Freud establishes psychoanalysis with publishing of Studien uber Hysterie Wilhelm Conrad Rontgen discovers X-rays U.S. Congress enacts Income Tax Act, but Supreme Court declares it unconstitutional Henry Ford produces his first automobile

1900

Guglielmo Marconi transmits messages across Atlantic with wireless telegraph Orville and Wilbur Wright make first heavier-than-air machine flight Albert Einstein publishes Theory of Relativity Earthquake and fire destroy much of San Francisco Financial panic in 1907 begins with the fall of the stock market and causes many banks to close Gold Standard Act enacted in USA Payne-Aldrich Tariff Act raises tariffs on imports into USA

1910

Marie Curie discovers radium Federal Reserve Act creates central bank for the USA Assassination of Austrias Archduke Francis Ferdinand brings about World War I Gilbert Lewis develops electron theory of valency explaining structure of atoms Revolution overthrows monarchy in Russia Paris Peace Conference redraws map of Europe after World War I and establishes the League of Nations

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KEYNESIAN SCHOOL Reacting to the severity of the worldwide depression, John Maynard Keynes in 1936 broke from the Classical tradition with the publication of the "General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money". The Classical view assumed that in a recession, wages and prices would decline to restore full employment. Keynes held that the opposite was true. Falling prices and wages, by depressing peoples incomes, would prevent a revival of spending. He insisted that direct government intervention was necessary to increase total spending. Keynes arguments proved the modern rationale for the use of government spending and taxing to stabilize the economy. Government would spend and decrease taxes when private spending was insufficient and threatened a recession; it would reduce spending and increase taxes when private spending was too great and threatened inflation. His analytic framework, focusing on the factors that determine total spending, remains the core of modern macroeconomic analysis.

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John Maynard Keynes England, 1883/1946 His ideas on the causes of unemployment revolutionized macroeconomic theory and profoundly altered government's involvement in the economy.

Irving Fisher United States, 1867/1947 His work on money and prices, with its sophisticated use of statistical techniques, provided the basis for recent theoretical work in economics.

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1920

Women in USA receive the right to vote Prohibition begins in the USA as sale of all alcoholic beverages becomes illegal Germany suffers financial collapse as hyperinflation destroys value of mark U.S. Steel Company abolishes twelve-hour work day and seven-day work week Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin Charles Lindbergh makes first solo airplane flight across the Atlantic Collapse of stock market ushers in decade of economic hardship

1930

Worldwide Depression worsens, fostering the rise of political extremists Hawley-Smoot Tariff Bill sets highest duties in US history, hurting world trade James Chadwick discovers the neutron; Carl Anderson discovers the positron U.S. repeals Prohibition President Franklin Roosevelt begins New Deal government spending programs Adolf Hitler becomes Chancellor of Germany Wallace Carothers produces Polymer 66, or nylon Germany invades Poland, starting World War II

1940

Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor and USA enters war against Japan, Germany and Italy By 1944 war rages throughout the world D Day offensive by USA, Britain and allies changes course of war in Europe Germany surrenders in May 1945 USA drops atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki; Japanese surrender The United Nations is formed John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley invent the transistor Communists gain power in China

1950

Cold War between USA and Russia develops as Russia builds an atomic bomb Korean War breaks out as North Korea invades south Korea, war ends in 1953

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SUMMARY
Economic theories are constantly changing. Keynesian theory, with its emphasis on activist government policies to promote high employment, dominated economic policymaking in the early postwar period. But, starting in the late 1960s, troubling inflation and lagging productivity prodded economists to look for new solutions. From this search, new theories emerged: Monetarism updates the Quantity Theory, the basis for macroeconomic analysis before Keynes. It reemphasizes the critical role of monetary growth in determining inflation. Rational Expectations Theory provides a contemporary rationale for the pre-Keynesian tradition of limited government involvement in the economy. It argues that the markets ability to anticipate government policy actions limits their effectiveness. Supply-side Economics recalls the Classical Schools concern with economic growth as a fundamental prerequisite for improving societys material well-being. It emphasizes the need for incentives to save and invest if the nations economy is to grow. These theories and others will be debated and tested. Some will be accepted, some modified, and others rejected as we search to answer these basic economic questions: How do we decide what to produce with our limited resources? How do we ensure stable prices and full employment of resources? How do we provide a rising standard of living both for now and the future ?
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1950 (continued)
Electricity produced by atomic power in USA James Watson and Francis H. C. Crick describe the double helix structure of DNA UNIVAC is first mass-produced computer Jonas Salk develops anti-polio vaccine Russia launches Sputnik I, the Earths first spacecraft U.S. Supreme Court orders desegregation of public schools

1960

Russia launches first man into space President Kennedy establishes Peace Corps to assist underdeveloped countries Rachel Carson writes Silent Spring marking concern with environmental pollution Martin Luther King leads massive civil rights demonstration in Washington, D.C. President Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas Vietnam War intensifies as USA begins massive military buildup; anti-war movement begins on college campuses Israel defeats Arab forces in Six-Day War USA lands astronauts on the moon

1970

Equal Rights Amendment to US Constitution passes Congress but fails to be ratified by the necessary number of states President Nixon resigns in the wake of the Watergate scandal Following Israeli-Arab War in 1973, oil-producing countries double oil prices causing energy crisis and economic hardship Vietnam War ends as South Vietnam surrenders and USA evacuates troops Egypt and Israel sign historic peace accord

1980

Personal computers change the way businesses do business Environmental issues become a major concern for most Americans AIDS, a disease destroying the human immune system, becomes pandemic U.S. sees rise of the largest federal budget deficit in history Free market emphasized; deregulation of airlines and S&Ls; stock market boom

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The information in this publication was taken from The World of Economics, a unique exhibition on economics and the U.S. economy located in the lobbies of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and its Los Angeles Branch.

Editor: Karen Flamme; Designer: Mark Hendricks; Illustrator: Dick Oden.

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Public Information Department Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco P.O. Box 7702 Mail Stop #620 San Francisco, CA 94120-9990 (415) 974-2163