SMIF Annual Report 2010-2011
SMIF Annual Report 2010-2011
SMIF Annual Report 2010-2011
InDesign template
A4 FORMAT PRINT READY
CS5
Clean design
EXTENSIVE CHARACTER STYLES PARAGRAPH AND
Special features
AUTOMATIC SHOWCASE GALLERY PAGES FORMATTING PAGES
12 Master pages
FOR AND MUCH MORE ARTCLES, INTERVIEWS, COLUMNS
ON PAGE 5 ON PAGE 12 ON PAGE 22 Editor Robert Forest An interview with Travelling around about MM Dave Johnson the world
Dick Runyon
This will be the last year that the CSULB SMIF founder, Dr. Lowell R. Runyon, will be serving as Director. As you head into retirement from CSULB, we would like to thank you for the incomparable experience you have provided to us through the SMIF program. We highly value your dedication, insight, and charity. We would like to dedicate this years annual report to you as a profound contributor and mentor to SMIF students over the past sixteen years. You will be missed, and this program will not be the same without you.
Table of Contents
PORTFOLIO MANAGERS
Ross Atefi Artoud Caloni Jesus Caro William Chau Katie Christensen Sean Filbin Brian Leip Taketoshi Mikami Whitney Odom Daniel Russell Piero Sandoval Nupur Shah Bruce Sparks Elizabeth Van Kai Xu 8 4 1 2 Introduction Portfolios Under Management
SMIF Portfolio CFAOCF Portfolio Forty-Niner Shops, Inc. Portfolio
Economic Forecast
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Oil Prices Unemployment Rate Housing Inflation Conclusion
12 Asset Allocation
SMIF CFAOCF Forty-Niner Shops, Inc.
15 Portfolio Benchmarks 19 Evolution of Strategy 22 Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Model
Strategic Asset Allocation Tactical Asset Allocation Performance Comparison
DIRECTORS
Dr. Lowell R. Runyon Dr. Peter Ammermann
38 Portfolio Performance
SMIF Performance CFAOCF Performance 49ers Performance
42 Learning Experiences
Management of Real Money Portfolios Host-A-Student CFAOCF Portfolio Competition Networking QGAME Conference
50 Future of SMIF 53 Student Portfolio Manager Biographies 55 Acknowledgements 68 Appendix A: Portfolio Guidelines
SMIF and Forty-Niner Portfolios CFAOCF Portfolio
Introduction
The Student Managed Investment Fund (SMIF) program at California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) is a year-long honors-level finance course that gives students real-life portfolio management experience not found in a typical classroom setting.
It was designed to provide students with a all aspects of the portfolio, including research, valuable hands-on experience gained through investment management, administration, and practical knowledge in researching, selecting, client services. investing, monitoring, and measuring the perManaging portfolios is only a small aspect formance of stocks. Students are selected for of the full SMIF program. Students are also the program after three summer boot camp required to address the educational aspects of sessions where quality of work and dedication the program by performing numerous profesare assessed. The program was established in sional-quality presentations (both to SMIF and 1995 by Dr. L. R. Runyon; who was later joined to external parties), networking with industry in 2002 by Dr. Peter A. Ammermann joined as professionals, attending events in the Orange Co-Director. County and Los Angeles areas and nationally, SMIF currently manages three unique and writing expansive papers such as the 160portfolios worth over a quarter of a mil- page annual RFP Competition as well as this lion dollars. The original SMIF portfolio has annual report. grown from $50,000 at inception in 1995 The programs success could not be to a current balance of over $110,000. The possible without the many UniversityCFA Society of Orange County Foundation provided resources available for their (CFAOCF) portfolios current assets under investment research, including, but not limmanagement amount to about $65,000. The Forty-Niner Shops, Inc. portfolioacquired SMIF currently manages three in 2009consists of $100,000 in assets under management. Each portfolio differs some- unique portfolios worth over a what in risk tolerance and restrictions on investments and requires regular updates on quarter of a million dollars. portfolio performance. The program uses a top-down approach that is widely used by many industry pro- ited to, the Bloomberg Professional Service fessionals. It begins at the macroeconomic Terminals, IHS Global Insight, Morningstar, level and progressively zooms in to sec- ValueLine Investment Survey, and IBIS World tors, industries, and, finally, the individual Industry Service. companies. Students work in small groups conducting research and analysis and pres- Note: This years annual report begins a new trend to review on a calendar-year basis and not on an academic-year ent formal investment recommendations to basis. For example, previous years would have covered the team members and the SMIF Directors October 2010 to April 2011, and this report covers January in regularly scheduled weekly meetings. The 2010 to March 2011. SMIF organization is responsible for managing CSULB - STUDENT MANAGED INVESTMENT FUND 5
SMIF Portfolio
The original portfolio of the CSULB Student Managed Investment Fund program was created at the inception of the program in 1995 and is funded through the Universitys Department of Finance. The SMIF portfolio is monitored by CSULBs Investment & Finance Committee, to whom the SMIF members report their activities at the end of each academic year. Like each of the SMIF-managed portfolios, the SMIF portfolio has specific investment guidelines. For example, all purchase decisions must be made by a supermajority (75 percent) of SMIF participants, and the SMIF Directors maintain the right to veto. The SMIF portfolio guidelines are listed in full detail in the Appendix. Traditionally, the SMIF portfolio has been liquidated at the end of each calendar year. However, beginning in 2010, the SMIF portfolio became perpetual to mirror the responsibilities and challenges seen in real-world portfolio management.
CFAOCF Portfolio
The CSULB SMIF program has benefitted tremendously from the support and influence of the CFA Society of Orange County Foundation (CFAOCF). Each year, the CFAOCF sends out Requests for Proposals (RFPs) to Orange County-area universities to give student investment-management teams the opportunity to compete for the management rights of the Foundations portfolios for the following calendar year. In 2010 SMIF competed and acquired the right to manage a $60,000 portfolio for 2011. This portfolio is overseen by the CFAOCFs Investment Policy Committee, and student teams report their activities to this Committee quarterly.
Economic Forecast
The United States economy at the time of the 2010-2011 SMIF class inception was in a state of uncertainty. There were questions as to whether the economy was going to start showing signs of recovery or instead to enter a double-dip recession. In July 2010 Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the markets are unusually uncertain. Just like previous years SMIF alumni, the 2010-2011 SMIF class had the initial challenge of predicting the future of the financial markets during highly uncertain times. In order to do so, the students had to assess the economic environment and determine the sustainability of the economic recovery. To assist in this challenge, the class incorporated economic forecasts from a number of leading firms, including Moodys, Goldman Sachs, Barclays Capital, and IHS Global Insight. Among other economic gauges, SMIF forecast Gross Domestic Product, Unemployment, Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index), Oil Prices, and Housing.
Oil Prices
The SMIF team predicted oil prices would hover in a range above $100 a barrel due to the increase in demand for oil, the decrease in the supply of oil, and the increased tensions in the Middle East. According to OPEC, the price of crude oil has risen due to the strong performance of the futures market, attributed mainly to fears of a supply shortage due to the turmoil in the Middle East. As the supply of oil slowly dwindles, the price of oil will start to rise. Since substitutions for oil are not readily available, consumers will consume oil and gas at a growing rate. Due to the current crisis in North Africa and the shortage of oil supply, SMIF foresees the possibility, albeit slim, of an oil crisis in the future.
4.0% 3.5%
GDP % Change
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Actual
SMIF Forecast
Unemployment Rate
The 2010-2011 SMIF team forecast a slightly optimistic view of unemployment rates throughout 2010. The SMIF team felt the job market was being stimulated by continuous government infrastructure spending, and also by manufacturing, construction, health care, and the public sector adding 192,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor & Statistics. With President Obamas job creation plans and his business tax breaks to promote hiring in the private sector, the job market recovery will continue to gain momentum, and the unemployment rate ended the year 2010 at 9.6 percent, which was better than SMIF had predicted.
Housing
In addition to the revisions made to the economic forecasts, the 2010-2011 SMIF team added two other metrics to its macroeconomic forecastshousing and oil prices. In 2010, housing prices declined, as indicated by the Case-Shiller Index. This decline was due to an oversupply of housing combined with continued weak housing demand. Other factors supporting housing prices included improved affordability, lower unemployment, and a house-priceto-income ratio lower than the average between 1987 and 2009. On the other hand, factors weakening housing prices included continued high levels of unemployment, economic uncertainty, fears of further price falls, and tightening credit conditions.
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Actual
SMIF Forecast
Inflation
The 2010 SMIF forecast was that inflation would continue to rise. The Federal Reserve has fought diligently to avoid a deflationary environment through Quantitative Easing. Quantitative Easing is a monetary policy in which the Federal Reserve creates money which it uses to buy treasury bonds in order to increase the money supply. SMIF recognizes the success of Quantitative Easing, but we are also aware of the kinds of risks that are associated with this kind of monetary policy, such as higher inflation than desired (or even hyperinflation), rising commodity prices, and a negative impact on trade relationships with other countries.
Actual
SMIF Forecast
Conclusion
Overall, the 2010-2011 SMIF team had a positive outlook of the U.S. economy going into 2011. Despite the fear of a doubledip recession, the SMIF team believed the U.S. economy would continue its slow recovery. The SMIF team will continue to monitor these indicators as the year progresses, because the only thing certain about the future is that it is uncertain.
Fixed-Income Forecast
The fixed-income forecast was derived using a top-down approach by considering market conditions, economic data, and Federal Reserve activities. A driving force behind the fixed-income market is the federal funds rate, which is currently being maintained at its historic low of 0.00-0.25 percent in an effort to spur lending and promote economic growth. This federal funds rate is the base interest rate from which all short-term interest rates are determined. Also, indirectly, long-term interest rates are affected as investors seek a risk premium over these short-term rates for longer term securities. SMIFs analysis of the federal funds rate suggests no change until late 2011. For longer term interest rates, inflation plays an important role. During the last recession from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2009, there was a degree of deflationary pressure in the U.S. economy; one of the main causes was the collapse of the housing market. Our economic analysis indicated high unemployment rates would continue the trend of deflationary pressure.
Treasury Yield / Fed Funds Rate Forecast
4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%
Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
2 Year
10 Year
3 Month
FFR
In addition, we also experienced a second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve to drive down yields, which has been accounted for in our forecast. The Federal Reserve announced on November 3, 2010, that it would be purchasing an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June 2011 (about $75 billion a month) in an effort to reduce unemployment and avert deflation. Eighty-six percent of these purchases targeted bonds coming due in 2.5 to 10 years. Although significant, the market has already priced most of this quantitative easing into the current yields, as they have steadily dropped through the third and fourth quarters of 2010 in expectation. Therefore, SMIF forecast that treasury yields would likely remain steady or rise slightly during the early portion of 2011 as the Fed undertook this action. The goal of quantitative easing is not to get interest rates to the lowest level possible, its to get the expectations that rates will remain at these low levels for a long time to try to change investor behavior and get them investing in riskier assets. (Ira Jersey, Credit Suisse AG) However, SMIF also believes there is significant risk in the fixed-income market, particularly beginning in the third quarter of 2011. As the asset purchasing of QE2 ends in June, the economy will be feeling the delayed effects of this effort, including inflation and economic growth, causing interest rates to rise rapidly. When the market does turn, as weve seen in the past, it will turn sharply and very swiftly. - Sean Simko, SEI Investments Co., Bloomberg News Analysis of the fixed-income markets also concentrated on expected credit spreads over the course of SMIFs holding period. As the United States economy has shown recent signs of recovery, investors have gained confidence in corporate issuers capacity to service their debt obligations, and as a result, credit spreads have narrowed. Also, with the Federal Reserve purchasing such a high volume of Treasuries and decreasing supply, investors will be forced to turn to riskier assets such as corporate bonds. Therefore, we expect these credit spreads to continue to narrow over the coming year until they reach pre-crisis levels. SMIF also utilizes professional analyst projections in determining our quantifiable fixed-income market outlook. By combining SMIFs thorough analysis with similar analysts forecasts gleaned through the Bloomberg Professional Service Terminals, SMIF developed the fixed-income market outlook shown below.
Equity Forecast
The 2009-2010 SMIF teams forecast for the equity markets in 2010 called for continued and sustained recovery. By the end of 2010, the market level, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, had already reached 1257.64, which was almost identical to its forecast high. Unfortunately, the team didnt foresee the uncertainty and volatility that would dominate the market throughout the second and third quarters. The first quarter of 2010 saw strong positive returns for equities. These were driven primarily by the much-betterthan-anticipated economic growth numbers posted for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2009, stronger-than-anticipated earnings numbers for most listed companies, and a sense of optimism that the economy had turned the corner was headed for another period of expansion. In the second quarter, however, the GDP numbers for first quarter growth came out and were disappointing, because, while they showed significant growth, the rate had slowed dramatically from the first quarter. Further, there was growing concern about the sustainability of the economic recovery. Growing concern about worldwide sovereign debt and the need for the European Union to step in to rescue Greece to prevent default on its bonds added significantly to this period of insecurity. Equity investors, with memories of the meltdown of the markets in 2008, were very nervous, and volatility in the markets rose significantly. On May 6, 2010, the markets experienced what would become known as the flash crash. Midday, with no warning, the equity market dropped dramatically. While it would recover much of the drop by the end of the day, investors level of fear would remain high for some time. After peaking in late April, the market would drop over 16 percent before turning again in late August. Throughout this period, the fear that the U.S. economy might end up in a double dip recession was high, and volatility levels made investing in equities for portfolios that required the use of stop losses, such as those managed by SMIF, nearly impossible. On August 24, 2010, the stock market formed a bottom and from that point would rise dramatically for the remainder of the year. The turnaround was fueled by strong corporate earnings and the removal of uncertainty that surrounded the election and issues such as tax rates for 2011. Further, there was a growing consensus that GDP was again growing and that the U.S. would avoid another slip into recession. In September 2010, the 2010-2011 SMIF team assumed responsibility for the portfolios under SMIF management. In September and October we developed our macroeconomic and equity-market forecasts. Overall, our forecast called for strong appreciation in the S&P 500 of between 9 and 18 percent for 2011. This turned out to be an accurate forecast, as it aligned closely with actual market levels at the end of each quarter.
Equity Forecast: Q1 2010 - Q4 2011
$1,500 $1,450 $1,400 $1,350 $1,300 $1,250 $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 $1,050 $1,000
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011
Forecast High
Forecast Low
Actual
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation can be one of the most crucial decisions in portfolio management and determines a major portion of a portfolios returns. The SMIF team takes this factor strongly into consideration and has customized asset allocations for all three portfolios to handle various market conditions. Due to guidelines and restrictions on the portfolios under management, there are three available asset classes that are permissible for investment: the equity market (stocks), the fixed-income market (bonds), and the money market (cash). SMIF determines asset allocation through a top-down approach beginning with the macroeconomic environment and over- or underweights certain asset classes based on our outlook for the future. For example, if the stock market is forecast to be very strong, we will overweight the equity market and underweight the fixed-income market. All portfolios under management specify an acceptable range for allocation to the various markets. Additionally, certain portfoliossuch as the 49er Shops portfoliospecify an ideal target asset allocation. These are taken into account in our asset allocation process. In 2010 SMIF adopted a quantitative risk management strategy called the Strategic Asset Allocation model (discussed in a later section). This model will occasionally give a signal that tells us when to exit the equity market in order to avoid crashes like the recent financial crisis and the dot-com bust. At that point, SMIF would shift asset allocation out of the stock market and into the fixed-income and money markets. The current target asset allocation is 80 percent equities and 20 percent fixed income. This allocation was approved by the SMIF student portfolio managers on January 4, 2011, with 10 out of 12 voting in favor of the change.
10
Evolution of Strategy
Volatility was a major factor in the 2010 equity markets, especially during the second quarter. The flash crash on May 6, 2010, was the single largest one-day decline in the history of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average, which lost 9 percent intraday only to recover a significant portion of that loss in a matter of minutes. Because SMIF places a 15 percent preventative trailing stop-loss order on all positions, the volatility triggered the stop losses on all open positions. As the market recovered, we reentered those positions and were subsequently stopped out again with the continued volatility. It became quickly apparent that the strategies SMIF was employing would all have to be reevaluated for effectiveness and immediate action would have to be taken to properly handle the volatile markets. The first strategy that was reevaluated was the sector rotation strategy, which had been underperforming the market. Members of the SMIF team ran a postmortem analysis and discovered that while sector rotation models work well in theory, it is virtually impossible to determine what stage of the sector rotation the market is currently in at any given point in time. Timing is crucial for sector rotation to perform well, and without the ability to know the precise point when sectors are rotating, the strategy is rendered ineffective. A better model with clear, easily discernible rules would need to be developed. The second strategy that was reviewed was the use of the VIX Volatility Index as a trigger for when to get out of the equity market when it is too volatile. We learned that while it can be a helpful tool in order to know when to steer clear of hostile market environments, it measured only how volatile the markets are and could not give us ideal entry/exit points in order to maximize market returns. As a team, SMIF felt that we would need to develop a tool with clear signals for equity market entry and exit points. Lastly, SMIF took a look at our equity valuation techniques. We learned that the thorough analysis and rigorous vetting process is a sound one and the equities we selected ended up outperforming the market; however, for that to occur, it takes patience, time, and the ability to endure volatile markets in the meantime. In response to the challenges of the first half of 2010, the SMIF team tested and unanimously voted to employ a new strategy developed by a SMIF alumnus, Reuben Conceicao, working in conjunction with the SMIF program Directors. The strategy incorporates both a strategic and a tactical asset allocation model.
11
ENTRY EXIT
12/31/1999
12/31/2000
12/31/2001
12/31/2002
12/31/2003
12/31/2004
12/31/2005
12/31/2006
12/31/2007
12/31/2008
12/31/2009
12/31/2010
200 SMA
12
The effect of these signals is to enable us to capture the majority of the gains during bull (positive) markets while avoiding the majority of the losses during bear (negative) markets, as the following profit-and-loss charts demonstrate:
Profit-and-Loss Equity CurveBuy & Hold S&P 500 (1/1/1990 to 03/31/2011) Annual Rate of Return: 6.14% Sharpe Ratio: 0.10 Trades/Year: n/a, Percent of Time in Market: 100%
Profit-and-Loss Equity CurveStrategic Asset Allocation Model (1/1/1990 to 03/31/2011) Annual Rate of Return: 8.02% Sharpe Ratio: 0.25 Trades/Year: .25 Percent of Time in Market: 75.37%
Over the 20-year period depicted in the plots above, the Strategic Asset Allocation model would have outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy while simultaneously reducing volatility by a significant amount, as reflected in the higher Sharpe ratio. While the model is quite robust, it is by no means perfect. First, there is a possibility of a false signal being generated where an exit signal is followed shortly thereafter by an entry signal (or vice versa). However, this is infrequent and has only occurred twice in the last 20 years. The second flaw is that a small portion of the gains at the beginning of a bull market will always be missed while waiting for an entry signal to be given. However, even with those minor flaws, the Strategic Asset Allocation model still outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy, as seen previously. To further improve the strategy and outperform buy-and-hold by an even wider margin, the Tactical Asset Allocation overlay was developed.
In addition to the benefits provided by the SAA and TAA models, such as superior returns and reduced risk, there are other significant benefits. A recurring challenge inherent in the SMIF program is how to handle the transition between teams while still fully managing three portfolios and attempting to outperform the benchmarks. Getting the incoming class up to speed and imparting the top-down process can be very timeconsuming. The SAA and TAA models can be learned, implemented, and maintained much faster than the thorough top-down and equity analysis approaches, while still offering superior returns to the benchmark. Another valuable benefit of the models is that they give students exposure to technical and quantitative analysis techniques that had previously not received the same level of focus as fundamental analysis techniques.
13
Performance Comparison
The chart below shows the performance of buy-and-hold versus Strategic Asset Allocation versus Strategic Asset Allocation with the Style Rotation Overlay (also referred to as TAA). Over the eight- year period, the three strategies returned 70.29 percent, 145.74 percent, and 196.58 percent, respectively. Another great advantage of this strategy is that it has superior gains while also reducing the volatility of returns. The performance of the style rotation strategy (TAA) since the 2010-2011 SMIF team took over has been outstanding. From October 15, 2010 (the date of the buy signal from the Strategic Asset Allocation model) to April 30, 2011, all of the top styles have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark, and the ranking of the top five styles only changed one time over the 6.5 months. (See relative performance below.)
150%
145.74%
100%
70.29%
50%
0%
-50%
12/31/2002
2/3/2004
5/3/2005
8/2/2006
11/2/2007
12/1/2008
2/2/2010
3/31/20111
14
15
Risk Management
With the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the volatility of Q2 2010 fresh in our minds, risk management was a major factor in the 2010-2011 teams new strategy.
Capital Preservation During Bear Markets
As mentioned above, the SAA model gives a signal when it is highly likely that the equity market is heading into a bear (unfavorable) market so that we can shift assets into the fixed-income and money markets. Over the last 20 years, using this model would have avoided the majority of the losses from both the dot-com crash and the financial crisis crash, while still benefitting from a majority of the gains. 15 percent trailing stop loss, which was standard policy for all equity positions in portfolios managed by SMIF.) In response to the volatility concerns, the SMIF team has explored various options for stop losses. We agreed on a method of handling stop losses that dynamically adjusts to the volatility inherent in the market. We have chosen to adopt the Average True Range (ATR) technical indicator as a trailing stop, originally developed by the innovative J. Welles Wilder in 1978. The ATR formula is: Averagen (Max(H,C[1] )- Min(L,C[1] ) )*M where n = number of days lookback for average, H = todays high, L = todays low, C[1] = yesterdays close, M = ATR multiplier The benefit of ATR is that it will expand during volatile markets to give the position breathing room and contract during calm markets, ensuring that the stop loss is customized to the current market. To further improve customization to the individual position, the two ATR inputs (n = number of days lookback for average and M = ATR multiplier) are optimized for the ideal parameters over the entire history of the stock or ETF using the TradeStation software platform. Since technical stops are not offered by the current portfolio brokerages, the ATR stop will be monitored at all times by a designated member of the SMIF team who will immediately send a sell order once the signal is triggered. (See below for a screenshot of an optimized ATR trailing stop loss on RKT. Over the yearlong time frame, the position would have been stopped out only once.)
16
Fixed-Income Holdings
SMIF anticipated that there would be a rising interest rate environment in Q3 and Q4 2010 and all of 2011. Under this type of environment, cash equivalent investment vehicles such as money market funds were one of the choices for the portfolio to reduce its duration in a hostile fixed-income environment. Moreover, SMIF believed that in a bear equity market, money-market funds would provide the portfolio with a level of principal stability that corresponded to SMIFs investment philosophy of capital preservation. However, considering that the money-market fund can provide only the minimal yield, SMIF explored still other alternatives, such as taking several bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) positions with a combined duration lower than AGG, which is Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, considered the benchmark of the fixed-income market. In this way, our fixed-income positions could outperform the benchmark with maximum return. At the start of October 2010, SMIF began intensive research and came up with the following Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as candidates of our final fixedincome positions: Ticker Total Asset $5.2B $1.4B $3.18B $1.19B Avg. Maturity 2.07 3 5.06 0.88 Avg. YTM 1.42% 2.05% 2.79% 0.19% Duration Initial Allocation in SMIF Portfolio CSJ VCSH CIU MINT 1.97 CSJ 2.8 VCSH 4.27 CIU 0.74 Total SMIF analyzed each of these investments to determine the most appropriate instruments for inclusion in portfolios. CSJ (iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Credit Bond Fund) and VCSH (Vanguard Short-Term Corp Bond Fund ETF) offered great liquidity as well as satisfied the primary objectives for SMIFs fixed-income allocation. CIU (iShares Barclays Intermediate Credit Bond Fund), on the other hand, offered intermediate securities with the highest yield but the longest duration. MINT (PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy ETF) was one of PIMCOs most successful actively managed ETFs and was targeted to earn higher return than the money-market fund, with the shortest duration and lowest yield. Given the extremely hostile environment in the fixed-income market, SMIF believed the short-maturity fixed-income ETFs provided acceptable return with a lower risk and offered protection against unforeseen downturns in the stock market. In the CFAOCF and 49er Shops portfolios, from Q1 to Q4 in 2010, SMIF held CSJ and CIU for a combined 30 percent of the total portfolio to satisfy the fixed-income position. However, MINT (PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy ETF) stood out with lowest duration among bond ETFs and an acceptable return due to our forecast of sharply increasing interest rates. So, on January 5, 2011, SMIF decided to select MINT as the main investment for the fixed-income allocation, which was reduced from 30 percent to 20 percent of the portfolio due to our projection of bullish performance of equity market. 3.37 2.08% 3.01 30% (100%) 5.06 2.79% 4.27 10% (33%) 3 2.05% 2.8 10% (33%) 2.07 1.42% 1.97 10% (33%) In the SMIF portfolio, from Q1 to Q4 in 2010, SMIF held CSJ, VCSH, and CIU for 30 percent of the total portfolio to satisfy the fixed-income position. Although the durations of CSJ and VCSH were a little longer, they provided higher yields, and 1.97 and 2.80 durations were bearable. However, SMIF believed that the yield on the CIU did not adequately compensate for the increase in risk. In addition, considering that the fixed-income allocation was reduced from 30 percent to 20 percent and the high transaction cost at Smith Barney Morgan Stanley, on February 22, 2011, the SMIF team decided to sell only CIU and to keep CSJ and VCSH in the SMIF portfolio. The following table illustrates the allocations of each fund from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011:
Ticker
Avg. Maturity
Avg. YTM
Duration
Initial Allocation in CFAOCF Portfolio CSJ CIU Total 2.07 5.06 2.97 1.42% 2.79% 1.83% 1.97 4.27 2.66 21% (70%) 9% (70%) 30% (70%)
Revised Allocation in SMIF Portfolio CSJ VCSH Total 2.07 3 2.54 1.42% 2.05% 1.74% 1.97 2.8 2.39 10% (50%) 10% (50%) 20% (100%)
Revised allocation in CFAOCF Portfolio MINT 0.88 0.79% 0.74 20% (100%)
Initial allocation in 49er Portfolio MINT 0.88 0.79% 0.74 25% (100%)
17
Source: Bloomberg
A similar screening process was followed in the assessment of Health Care ETFs. Once again, only ETFs that met the established liquidity and volatility thresholds were considered for inclusion. Next, each of the remaining ETFs was assessed based on its industry allocations.
OBjECTIvE:
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund, before expenses, seeks to closely match the returns and characteristics of the Health Care Select Sector Index (ticker: XLV). Our approach is designed to provide portfolios with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and lower costs. (SPDRS.com) SMIF closely monitored news surrounding the ongoing health care legislation debate and believed that the Health Care Bill would be substantially less invasive to businesses in this sector than many had originally thought. SMIF carefully tracked the sectors performance and its reaction to news about health care legislation and felt that much of the markets uncertainty about the possible legislation had resulted in unjustifiably depressed prices. Therefore, rather than a short-term cyclical investment decision, SMIF saw strength within this sector based on these perceived price inefficiencies, as well as the belief that a long-term trend in United States demographics would contribute to the strength of this sector, including the aging of the large baby-boomer population. SMIFs assessment of industry allocation within each ETF was based on the assessment of the Health Care Bill, as well as this long-term perspective. This industry assessment led SMIF to favor Pharmaceuticals, Health Care Equipment and Supplies, and Health Care Technology. Also, SMIF desired minimum exposure among the available ETFs to the Biotechnology industry due to its volatile nature and the Health Care Providers and Services industry due to the intrusive nature of the proposed Health Care Bill. The members of SMIF voted on a 5 percent total allocation to XLV for all three of the portfolios under SMIF management.
OBjECTIvE:
The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology Sector Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the largest public companies in the technology sector of the U.S. market, as represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index. (iShares.com) SMIF concluded that IYW would be an appropriate investment for each of the portfolios and recommended a 5 percent total allocation to the SMIF, CFAOCF, and Forty-Niner Shops portfolios.
18
vALUATION
SMIFs equity selection process entails in-depth valuation models that allow SMIF to calculate an estimated intrinsic value and target prices for its equity selections. The 2009-2010 SMIF team utilized several valuation models when assessing equity securities. These valuation models included the Bloomberg Dividend Discount Model, the Relative Valuation Model, and the Discounted Cash Flow Model. The following figure displays the Dividend Discount Model, as provided through the Bloomberg Professional Service Terminal. In addition to the Dividend Discount Model, SMIF also used relative valuation to assess Rock-Tenn. SMIFs Relative Valuation Model used price multiples to assess the current price of Rock-Tenn in comparison with average price multiples for its closest peers as well as with the securitys 10-year average price multiples. In addition, SMIF utilized the Discounted Cash Flow Model to assess the fair market value of Rock-Tenn. Given the extreme difficulty of forecasting future cash flows, growth rates, and the applicable discount rate, SMIFs philosophy was aimed at formulating conservative estimates of these variables to ensure a margin of safety and, therefore, to limit the downside risk to SMIFs portfolio. SMIFs Discounted Cash Flow Model incorporated variables that also accounted for industry dynamics. SMIF combined these three valuation models, as well as the average analyst target price, to arrive at a target price for Rock-Tenn. SMIF meticulously scrutinizes and reassesses this target price over the course of the investments holding period to ensure that it is conscious of changing market, industry, and company-specific conditions. The SMIF sell discipline, in combination with a trailing 15 percent stop loss, also incorporates this target price estimation and any potential revisions to this target price going forward during the holding period.
COMPANy OvERvIEw
Rock-Tenn (RKT) is a leading manufacturer and distributor of packaging products, recycled paperboard, containerboard, bleached paperboard, and merchandising displays. The majority of Rock-Tenns sales come from the United States; however, the company also has manufacturing facilities in Mexico, Canada, Chile, and Argentina. SMIF found several qualitative aspects of Rock-Tenn to be attractive. Among these was the fact that Proctor & Gamble, one of Rock-Tenns biggest customers, recently named the company 2009 Supplier of the Year, which underscored to the SMIF team Rock-Tenns success in becoming the low-cost provider of these products and the resultant competitive advantage. Also, Rock-Tenn recently began making concerted efforts to pay off its heavy debt load, which resulted in credit rating upgrades by both major credit rating agencies in November 2009. SMIFs assessment of the companys financial statements concluded that Rock-Tenns cash from operating activities, return on invested capital, and improving EBITDA margins were all major signs of company strength. Rock-Tenn is classified as a small-cap company with over 10,000 employees as of March 2010.
Source: Bloomberg
PERFORMANCE
On April 9, 2010, SMIF purchased 99 shares of Rock-Tenn for the CFAOCF portfolio at $47.75. As of market close on April 30, 2010, RockTenn had returned 11.47 percent, compared to a benchmark return of 1.04 percent. At the time of purchase, this security was deemed too volatile for inclusion in the Forty-Niner Shops and SMIF portfolios, which were (as of the end of Q1 2010) restricted to a 10 percent trailing stop-loss policy. (Note: Following a revision to the SMIF Investment Guidelines, Rock-Tenn was also purchased for the SMIF portfolio on May 5*.) *Note: Investment in Rock-Tenn (RKT) occurred following the first quarter of 2010.
19
20
21
IWM
Small-cap blend Small-cap value Small-cap growth Mid-cap growth Mid-cap blend
60
$78.64
$4,718.40
IWN
66
$71.37
$4,710.42
IWO
53
$87.98
$4,662.94
IWP
82
$56.90
$4,665.80
IWR
46
$102.15
$4,698.90
Ticker
Style
This strategy was also adopted for the 49er Shops portfolio after a presentation demonstrating the methodology and performance. On February 3, 2011, we purchased the following positions: No. of Shares Price Per Share Total Investment
IWP
Mid-cap growth Small-cap growth Small-cap value Small-cap blend Large-cap growth
Ticker IWO 82 $81.42 $6,676.44 IWM IWN 100 $67.50 $6,749.80 IWN IWM 91 $73.54 $6,692.14 IWO IWF 120 $55.63 $6,675.60 IWP * Includes commissions. These positions were held until January 4, 2011, when all of the positions were liquidated in the portfolio as the SMIF teams tenure as managers shifted to a different CFAOCF portfolio. The holding period return for the positions, from November 5, 2010, to January 4, 2011, was a cumulative 6.30 percent, which compared to the return of the S&P 500 over the same period of 4.01 percent. The strategy was very successful over the holding period, as the return of each and every position exceeded the S&P 500s return for the same period. IWR
Style
Small-cap blend Small-cap value Small-cap growth Mid-cap growth Mid-cap blend
126
$79.73
$10,045.98
138
$72.44
$9,996.72
113
$89.10
$10,068.30
171
$58.61
$10,022.31
95
$105.13
$9,987.35
22
Factor Projected growth in EBITDA (1 year forward) Historical growth in EBITDA (last 3 years) ROE (latest ttm) Projected sales growth (2010-2011) Historical sales growth (last 3 years) Histroical FCF growth (last 3 years) Profit Margin
Among over 1000 small cap companies that Bloomberg examined, the individual equity that best matched this combination of factors was Iconix Brand Group (ticker: ICON). It is important to note that the factors and weights of the screen are different for value, growth, or blend. Our next step in the process is to determine the intrinsic value of an equity we are considering. We do this using a variety of methods, including the dividend discount model (DDM) and the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and comparing relevant ratios to industry peers. In the Iconix case, the company does not pay dividends; therefore, we used the DCF and relevant ratios. Both of these methods yielded intrinsic values that significantly exceeded the market price. When there is a significant difference between the market price of an equity and our valuation, the next step is to relentlessly search for an understanding of the reasons that might underlie the market value. In-depth analysis of the Iconix financial statements and the SEC filings showed that much of the growth over the last five years had been financed by issuing new equity shares. Therefore, we recast the forward-growth estimates to include the effects of a similar dilution of the shareholders position. After these adjustments, our best evaluation of the value of the Iconix stock was $29.50. This target price became part of our sell discipline. On January 23, 2011, we purchased 117 shares at a price of $19.69 per share for the CFAOCF portfolio. The stock rose to $23.17, but dropped as a result of the volatility that occurred in March due to the political unrest in the Middle East. Our 15 percent trailing stop loss was triggered on March 17, and the shares were sold for $19.68 per share.
RSP 34%
RKT 5%
23
Portfolio Performance
Portfolio Benchmarks: To benchmark our performance, SMIF uses a composite index that comprises 70 percent U.S. equity market and 30 percent U.S. government and investment-grade corporate bond market . This allocation is intended to represent our asset allocation under normal, bullish market conditions. For the 70 percent U.S. equity market portion of the composite index, we will use the S&P 500. For the 30 percent fixed-income portion, we will be using AGG (iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund) as opposed to the LGCI (Lehman Government and Corporate bond index) because the data is available for free, can be easily accessed from any financial information Web site, and represent the investment-grade fixed-income markets that are permissible for us to invest in.
6/30/2010
9/30/2010
12/31/2010
3/31/2011
CFAOCF
Benchmark
3/31/2010
6/30/2010
49ers
Benchmark
12/31/2009
3/31/2010
6/30/2010
9/30/2010
12/31/2010
3/31/2011
SMIF
Benchmark
CFAOCF Portfolio - Holdings as of March 31, 2011 Money Market: 38%, IWM: 9%, IWN: 8%, IWO: 9%, IWP: 8%, IWR: 8%, Mint: 20% 49er Shops Portfolio - Holdings as of March 31, 2011 Money Market: 24%, IWM: 10%, IWN: 10%, IWO: 11%, IWP: 10%, IWR: 10% SMIF Portfolio - Holdings as of March 31, 2011 Money Market: 73%, CSJ: 10%, VCSH: 10%, RKT: 7%
24
Directors by analyzing the past sector performances, finding relationships between the sectors and the stock market in mathematical expressions, and doing multiple time-consuming back-tests. Changes were made week after week, and the updated model was presented to the class and the Directors for intense scrutiny and discussion. The performance of the model was impressive, but members of the SMIF team and the Directors remain concerned with some aspects of the model design that have not been addressed and that could lead to problems in the future. These will remain a legacy issue and will hopefully be tackled and resolved by a future SMIF team. In the end, as education is the primary goal of SMIF, this research project successfully served that purpose.
Investing Internationally
The SMIF team had initially carved out a percentage of the equity portion of the portfolio for investing internationally. International ETFs were preferred over foreign equities in the investment policy statements for each portfolio. A major benefit of investing internationally is the reduction of systematic riskwhich, unlike diversifiable risk, cannot be eliminated through diversification in U.S. market equitiesdue to the difference in correlation between the countries. The SMIF team reviewed the available international ETFs and the financial headwinds and tailwinds involved with each country, such as uneven GDP growth, debt overhang,
increasing trade among emerging market countries, population dynamics, international trade and currency issues, and unique risk factors. After the analysis, SMIF recommended two international ETFs for purchase in the portfolios: Wisdom-Trees Dividend Paying Emerging Market ETF (DEM) and MSCI Canada Index ETF (EWC). SMIF Directors were concerned about making international investments without a thoroughly researched risk management strategy. International markets are on average 40 percent more volatile than U.S. markets, and the huge spikes in volatility over Q2 and Q3 2010 made investing internationally a potential risk. The team was tasked with determining a risk management sell strategy that would properly handle the volatility inherent in international markets while avoiding potential losses. Many different technical indicators were attempted, such as simple moving average crossovers, relative strength indicators, moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), and Bollinger bands; however, all were found to be insufficient in managing risk and protecting capital. Toward the end of the Spring 2011 semester, a momentum/rotation model similar to the TAA style rotation model was attempted; however, it resulted in a large number of trades and still had more volatility than was acceptable for the portfolios risk tolerance. As with the quantitative sector rotation model, even though a satisfactory international risk management model was never determined, much was learned by the students in the process of exploring and researching it.
25
Learning Experiences
Though portfolio returns might get the most attention by onlookers of the SMIF program, in reality that is only a small part of the full SMIF program experience. The programs main focus is on learning, networking, working in teams, creating new experiences, and developing professional skills that will be vital in the students future careers.
Teamwork
The SMIF program encourages students to think critically of ourselves and one another. This created a safe space for us to come to disagreements and reach different conclusions on certain issues. It also encouraged a sense of camaraderie between us because we could explore new ideas we otherwise would not have explored. Learning to work in groups with people you may not completely agree with is an essential skill in todays workplace. Additionally, the demanding schedule that SMIF requires encouraged us to use modern communication tools to complete our work. The 2010-2011 SMIF team utilized cutting-edge communication and collaboration tools such as Google groups and DropBox, a shared cloud storage program.
usually in a close private setting, and the information is presented less formally and more interactively. They allowed us insights into the job market and our conception of the financial markets. Private lunches offered the best opportunity for networking and learning because they were more personal. They offered one-on-one interaction with investment professionals that students would rarely find elsewhere.
Host-A-Student
Host-A-Student events were an important part of the learning experiences for the SMIF class. A less formal setting allowed us to engage our presenters with questions and understand their portfolio strategies. Host-A-Student events also introduced us to many trading strategies in the market. One common lesson was the way segmentation allowed many financial firms to operate effectively with little risk of competition. We were able to learn how many professionals developed their careers by finding a niche segment in the market and establishing a firm. Host-A-Student events were also more personal and allowed the presenters to meet all the students in more engaged way.
Networking
Networking events provided an array of learning experiences for the SMIF class. Our networking events ranged from CFAOC/CFALA events, to Host-A-Student events, to private lunches with financial professionals. CFAOC/CFALA events required both a time, a driving, and a monetary commitment from students, as the events were in various places around the OC and LA areas and each event fee was furnished by the students. Although the actual networking opportunities at these events were few, the information often presented useful knowledge in applying our portfolio strategy. HostA-Student events provided a less formal setting for learning and a better forum for developing our network of contacts. At Host-A-Student events we speak to a financial professional,
26
Q-G.A.M.E. Forum
The University of Quinnipiac in Connecticut presented the inaugural Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education (Q-G.A.M.E.) Forum from March 31 to April 2, 2011. Q-G.A.M.E. provided a unique forum bringing together students, faculty, and Wall Street professionals in an interactive learning environment to discuss a range of issues facing the investment profession. SMIF sent eight representatives to this event to learn and exchange insights on investing with industry professionals, academia, government representatives, and other student-managed investment funds from all over the world. Our representatives were funded in part by a grant from the Instructional Related Activities Board, to whom the studentmanagers owe a debt of gratitude. This forum helped our students enhance their learning experiences and network with investment professionals. Each ten-hour day was filled with activities ranging from keynote presentations with question-and-answer sessions, to smaller breakout sessions focusing on a range of investment topics, including security analysis, portfolio management, and career strategy. On the first day, speakers discussed topics ranging from the economy, the stock market, alternative investments, and corporate governance. Each keynote presentation began with the speakers introducing themselves and framing the issues which were of greatest importance to them. A distinguished student panel then offered a few questions before opening the discussion to the floor. Bruce Sparks, a member of the SMIF team, was honored by being a part of the student panel asking questions regarding corporate governance. Popular topics included government intervention, monetary policy, alternatives to the U.S. dollar as a global currency, and the future of the investment profession. The second day consisted of breakout sessions, which were held in smaller classrooms and covered more specialized topics. The smaller group size and more intimate setting allowed for interactive discussions. Our SMIF representatives had the opportunity to attend various topics, including Equity Portfolio Management, Operation and Regulation of Investment Vehicles, Security Analysis, and Portfolio Construction. The opportunity to hear from the top names in the industry and get answers to our questions, which were more complex than textbook questions, was a rewarding experience. The final day consisted of career strategy forums, which were also held in small groups. They gave our representatives a chance to find out how the professionals achieved their
goals, which strategies they used, and how to avoid common mistakes in career planning. The experience at Quinnipiac was enlightening and rewarding, and we are confident that the lessons learned will play a key role as we enter the investment profession. The learning experience, which transcended textbooks, will remain with us for the rest of our lives.
Challenges
In addition to all of our successes, the SMIF class also faced some challenges. Some of these challenges included limited access to the portfolio an overemphasis on presentations, and market penetration. Having limited access to the actual portfolio created a unique challenge to the SMIF class because it meant that we could not get accurate and timely information and that that there would be a delay in the execution of our stock and ETF trade orders. SMIF overcame part of this concern by developing a spreadsheet with live updates that showed the student-managers the balance of the portfolio and positions at all times. Another major challenge came from the heavy emphasis on presentations and papers. This included quarterly and annual updates, the RFP competition, the CFA annual report, and the SMIF annual report, as well as the weekly presentations to classmates required whenever a new potential position is proposed. This shifted the majority of the weekly class time to creating, practicing, and polishing presentations. While presentations are a vital skill for the students future careers, the sheer number of presentations and papers overwhelmed the portfolio management aspect of the program. This may have also contributed to the last major challenge, market penetration. The SMIF class requires a supermajority in order to execute a purchase order. In practical terms this means that 12 out of 15 students must be convinced that the investment will be profitable. With a room full of strong and educated people, there are bound to be disagreements. One additional problem with this structure is that if three students are absent, only a unanimous vote will pass, and if four or more are absent, voting is impossible. Both of these factors made investing in the portfolios an exercise in sheer determination. Student-managers who were able to make take their investment ideas through the gauntlet, successfully address the myriad concerns of the Directors and their classmates, and then get the position voted into the portfolio deserved accolades.
27
Website Redesign
SMIFs website went through a major revamp during the 2010-2011academic year. The goal of the new design was to emphasize the student-managers of the portfolio. The header rotates through portraits of all the student-managers. The new site is designed to impart the key information points to all types of audiences. Each section is summarized in the first paragraph, which stands out more than the other paragraphs. The site has a certain aesthetic look and feel to it and creates a permanent SMIF brand recognized in many places. The student portraits, presented throughout the website, are intended to emphasize each individual student and to reflect his or her hard work and dedication put forth throughout the year-long program.
28
Future of SMIF
Over the years, SMIF has been working to make the transition process from the present class to the incoming class run more smoothly and more efficiently. To do so, SMIF employs three boot camp sessions during the summer. Prospective students are quickly brought up to speed on what is currently happening in each of the three portfolios under SMIFs management. The boot camp sessions allow students to interact with the current years SMIF students and familiarize themselves with what would be expected of them should they be selected to into the program. Students update themselves on the condition of the economy, the financial markets, and specific sectors and industries to become better prepared once they enter into the program. The SMIF program offers a challenging experience, and the expectations from each incoming class increases as the years go by.
The SMIF program always seeks to increase the amount of funds under its control. As a result of the programs efforts, the Forty-Niner Shops portfolio was recently added under SMIFs management. More funds tend to translate into a higher degree of attractiveness from prospective students, and this will increase the number of applicants in the recruitment pool. Also, with more funds available, students will be able to incorporate more strategies and add more securities to the portfolios, thus fostering their learning experience. Another advantage of enlarging the pool of assets under SMIFs management is that it will serve to raise not only the prestige of the program but the prestige of the Finance Department, as well as enhance the reputation of CSULB.
29
Ross Atefi
Ross Atefi will be graduating in Spring 2011 with a BS in FinanceInvestments. After attaining his degree, he plans to begin his career as a comprehensive Financial Planner. This career choice stems from his interest in assisting individuals with their investment decisions, managing their portfolios, and guiding them to a successful retirement. Ross holds a GPA above 3.5 overall with a 4.0 in Finance courses. He has also worked at several internships in the financial services industry, including an internship with Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, and is currently working for Lincoln Financial Advisors. He attests to the SMIF program as an unmatched learning and networking experience while in school.
William Chau
William Chau graduates in Spring 2011 with a BS in Business Administration, with an emphasis in Finance-Investments. Upon graduation he plans on gaining experience as a junior analyst within the investment banking or money management professions. He holds a 3.1 GPA and is Bloomberg Certified in Fixed-Income and Equity markets. In the future he intends to earn an MBA and start up his own business. He enjoys investing, reading, running, and cooking.
Sean Filbin
Sean Filbin will be graduating in Spring 2011 with a BS in Finance Financial Management. After graduation, he plans to begin his career as a junior analyst for a wealth management firm in Southern California. He is Bloomberg Certified in equity markets. During the SMIF program, Sean helped develop the international forecast and focused on managing risk in international investments. He hopes to work locally so he can continue to surf on a regular basis.
Taketoshi Mikami
Taketoshi Mikami is graduating in Spring 2011 with a BS in FinanceInvestments. He holds an above-3.5 in-major GPA. During his undergraduate study he attained Deans List honors in Fall 2009 and Spring 2010. After attaining his degree, he plans to work in finance domestically or internationally. He is currently seeking to gain experience as a junior analyst within the investment banking or money management professions. He plans to pass the CFA Level I exam in December 2011. His ultimate goal is to manage a fund size above one or two billion dollars.
Brian Leip
Brian Leip is a senior at CSULB and will be graduating with a BS in Finance-Investments in Spring 2011. He has a 3.7 upper-division GPA with a 4.0 GPA in the major and was on the Deans List and Presidents List in Spring 2009 and Fall 2009, respectively. He is a member of multiple honor societies including Beta Gamma Sigma, Golden Key, Financial Management Association, Phi Theta Kappa, and the CSULB College of Business honors program. As part of the CSULB CBA honors program, he recently completed an honors thesis study entitled Profitability and the Impact of Complexity on Automated Technical Trading Systems in the Foreign Exchange Market, for which he received an honorable mention in the 2011 student research competition. Brian has further advanced his career while finishing his degree, recently being promoted to the position of Treasury Manager at a local leasing firm. After Brian graduates in May, he will begin preparing for the CFA Level I exam in December as well as the GMAT. He hopes to gain admittance to a top-tier business school so he can continue exploring his passion for finance.
31
Whitney M. Odom
Whitney M. Odom is graduating in May 2011 with a B.S. in Finance with a concentration in Investments. Whitney earned the honor of being included on the Deans List for academic achievement. She is currently a member of the Financial Management Association and is Bloomberg Certified in Fixed Income and Equities. Whitneys interests include both Finance and Accounting, and she plans on going back to school to finish up her Accounting degree. After graduating, Whitney plans on working for a major financial firm and attaining an MBA in Mathematics.
Daniel Russell
Daniel Russell will be graduating in Spring 2011, receiving a BS in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance-Investments. After attaining his degree, he plans to pursue a career in analytics and portfolio management while pursuing his MBA and CFA. During his undergraduate study he earned Deans List honors in Fall 2010. Daniel is Bloomberg Certified and enjoys investing, reading, puzzles, traveling, and ocean and other outdoor activities.
Piero Sandoval
Piero Sandoval will be graduating in Spring 2011 with a BS in FinanceInvestments. Originally from Peru, Piero has lived in five different countries and has an extensive international background. His passion for leadership and politics drove him to run for, and hold, multiple management roles in various student organizations. He has been Senator-at-Large for Associated Students Incorporated and had the honor of being appointed to the Board of Control. He currently holds the title of Executive Vice President of the Business College Council and has been involved in major program funding as well as the implementation of new procedures. Piero has attained the honor of being on the Deans List and is also Bloomberg Certified. He is currently preparing for the December 2011 CFA Level I exam.
Nupur Shah
Nupur Shah will be graduating in May 2011 with an MBA with a concentration in Finance, and he has a BS in Computer Science from California State University, Long Beach. Nupur currently works as a Senior Web Architect for the College of Business Administration at CSULB. His interests include strategic management, technical analysis of the stock markets, and valuations of companies in different industries and sectors. He has a strong penchant for looking at the big picture rather than focusing on minor details. Upon graduation, he plans to pursue his CFA designation while developing a career in business valuations in the Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) field with subsequent focus on the Technology sector. In his free time, he likes to research human psychologyin particular, studies that focus on human behavioral patterns.
32
Bruce Sparks
Bruce Sparks is an MBA student who anticipates graduating in May 2012. He holds a Bachelors degree in Finance-Investments from California State University, Long Beach. For the last 93 units of Bruces undergraduate work and for his MBA program, he has maintained a 4.0 GPA. Currently, Bruce is preparing to take the CFA Level I exam in June 2011 and plans to take the CFA Level II exam in 2012. Mr. Sparks is seeking to successfully transition to a career in financial management, after building and running a retail furniture business from an undercapitalized start-up to a multistore, multimillion-dollar business with a strong reputation for customer service and integrity.
Elizabeth Van
Elizabeth Van is a double major in Accounting and Finance, with a concentration in Investments. She currently serves as the Corporate Relations Director for the Financial Management Association. She has been on the Presidents Honor List and is Bloomberg Certified. Upon graduation, she hopes to gain experience at a wealth management firm while working toward a CFA designation. Once she becomes a CFA, she plans to move on to graduate school and eventually pursue a career as a portfolio manager.
Kai Xu
Kai Xu will be graduating in May 2011, receiving a BS in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance. His passion for investments drives him to be a portfolio manager for his future career. In order to achieve his goal, he studies hard and has a 3.8 cumulative GPA and a 4.0 Finance GPA. Currently, he is a member of the Phi Kappa Phi Honor Society and Beta Gamma Sigma Honor Society. Kai was named to the Presidents Honors List in the Summer and Fall semesters of 2010. He is preparing for the CFA Level I exam in December 2011.
33
34
Acknowledgments
The SMIF team would like to express our gratitude to the following people and organizations that have contributed to the continual success of the program and have played key roles in fostering the learning experiences for each student.
COUNTy
Benjamin C. Lau, CFA, President Tony Relvas, CFA, Treasurer Erin Campbell, Secretary Ramin Modiri, CFA, Scholarship Chair Timothy Stevens, CFA, Investment Policy Chair Andrew Aw, Host-A-Student Chair Thank you for allowing SMIF to act as stewards for the CFAOCF portfolio. We would also like to express our gratitude for granting the SMIF scholarships, for organizing the Host-A-Student events, and for allowing us to participate in the RFP process. All have been integral to the educational experience of the SMIF students.
hOSTS
Hunter Wise Financial Group, LLC Knightsbridge Asset Management Wealth Management Network 401(k) Advisors Iwamoto Kong Investment Group First Foundation Advisors Modiri Asset Management Pacific Asset Management Thank you for allowing us to visit and learn more about your firm and profession. We appreciate your taking time out of your day to offer us your insights and your know-how.
35
OF
ALL
SMIF program participants are responsible for the management of multiple portfolios and therefore must commit to participate in the orderly transition of portfolio-management responsibilities by attending one or more of the SMIF summer boot camp sessions. The objective of these sessions is to ensure that all portfolios receive the full attention of the outgoing students while the new incoming students become familiar with the portfoliomanagement strategies that have been deployed.
Suggested Transaction Guidelines - Purchase decisions must be supported by a supermajority of the SMIF participants - Purchase decisions are subject to veto by any of the program Directors - An irrevocable 15 percent stop-loss provision must be communicated to the broker at the Rate of Return time of purchase with a full review of the investThe return should be equal to or better than the ment position at a decline in price of 7.5 composite benchmark set forth by SMIF. As the percent assets of the fund increase in value, a portion of - Any bond, or equivalent investment vehicle, the portfolio may be used to finance scholar- falling below investment grade is to be sold ships, special projects, and course-related field trips. Other Guidelines Trades are recommended and voted upon Suggested Investment Guidelines by students and approved by the program SMIF FUNDS MAY BE INVESTED IN THE Directors. SMIF participants formally meet once FOLLOWING TYPES OF INVESTMENTS: a week, and trading decisions are made at that time. In emergency situations an appointed - Common stocks of companies listed on the member from each team will contact each three major exchangesNASDAQ, NYSE, and other team member to discuss possible actions. AMEX in companies with market capitaliza- A vote by a supermajority is required to adopt tions greater than $500 million any transactions outside of class meetings.
36
CFAOCF Portfolio
CFAOCF Investment Policy Statement
The purpose of this statement is to provide a clear understanding of the investment objectives, policies, and guidelines for the CFAOCF. This statement will outline an overall philosophy that is specific enough to allow the Student Investment Management Team to know what is expected, while at the same time giving flexibility for changing economic conditions. Return Objective: The CFAOCFs total annual return objective is equal to the spending rate plus the expected tuition inflation rate, thus maintaining the real value of the scholarships and the fund. To guide the Student Investment Management Team, it is suggested that this long-term objective can be achieved by adhering in the short-term to a benchmark composed of 70% S&P 500 Index and 30% Barclays Government Corporate Intermediate Index (BGCI). Definitions: Total annual return equals the sum of dividends, interest, and other current income, plus the net impact of price change, time-adjusted for capital additions and withdrawals, all after transaction costs and management fees, for a given fiscal year. Spending rate, set as a percentage of the previous years ending market value, includes annual scholarships and all management expenses, and is initially targeted at 6% (5% for scholarships and 1% for operating expenses). Tuition inflation rate is the average rise in tuition cost at the 6 major Orange County/ Long Beach Universities offering business programs in Orange County, California (Chapman, CSULB, CSUF, Pepperdine, UCI, USC) over the academic year. Risk Tolerance: The need to pay out annual scholarships and to maintain the real value of those scholarships; the inexperienced and annually rotating management team; and the expectations of the learning process, all dictate moderate risk for the fund. Time Horizon: Infinite foundation horizon, short-term management horizon. Liquidity Requirements: Due to the longterm life of the foundation minimum liquidity is required to meet the periodic distributions described by the spending rate. As a public foundation, the initial targeted spending rate is 6%, with that rate being set annually by the IPC. 1% is targeted for operating expenses throughout the year. These liquidity needs are typically satisfied via Foundation funds that are separate from the student-managed portfolios. Thus, although the Foundations Investment Policy Statement establishes target asset allocation guidelines for these portfolios (see below), there
are no specific liquidity requirements imposed on the operations of the student investmentmanagement teams. Tax Considerations: Public foundations unlike private foundations are not subject to excise taxes. Regulatory Issues: In general foundations are subject to little in the way of federal regulation. The fund would be subject to California State regulation of foundations. Unique Circumstances: The CFAOCF faces a unique challenge in that its fund assets are overseen by the volunteer Investment Policy Committee and managed by the Student Investment Management Team, both with changing memberships each year. Both of these groups will consist of members with varying levels of investment skill, experience, and understanding. They will have a wide range of personal preferences, prejudices, and investment styles. Portfolio Guidelines Permissible Investments All assets must have readily ascertainable market value and be easily marketable. Any proposed position requires the submission to the IPC of concrete evidence of due diligence conducted on the proposed investment. Equity Equity investments may be chosen from the NYSE, the AMEX, the Nasdaq, and regional exchanges. The portfolio will be generally fully invested with minimal emphasis on market timing and broadly diversified, with no individual equity exceeding 5%, no industry exceeding 10%, and no sector exceeding 30% of the equity portfolio at time of purchase. Sectors and industries for the S&P 500 are defined by Barra and can be found at: http://www.barra.com/research/sector_ detail.asp. If any individual stock should rise to 10% of the equity portion of the portfolio, the security must be sold down to at least 5% of the equity portfolio. Market capitalization restrictions: Investment in stocks of firms with a total market capitalization of less than $500 million is prohibited. No more than 50% of the equity allocation of the portfolio may be invested in small-cap stocks (market capitalization of between $500 million and $2 billion). Up to 100% of the equity allocation of the portfolio may be invested in mid- to large-cap stocks (market capitalization of greater than $2 billion). Foreign equities are limited to ADRs, U.S. listed foreign stocks, and ETFs and should not exceed 30% of the equity portfolio at time of purchase.
Fixed Income Investments in fixed income securities should be limited to mutual funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) until such time as the Fund grows to $500,000 in assets. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) The use of ETFs must be consistent with the guidelines of the IPS. The holdings of any proposed ETF position must conform to the restrictions and diversification guidelines of the IPS. The trading techniques utilized by the proposed ETF must also conform with the trading techniques allowed by the IPS. Equity ETFs: One or more broad market ETFs (e.g., SPY, NYC) can comprise a total of no more than 50% of the equity allocation of the portfolio. No non-broad-based equity ETFs can comprise more than 10% of the equity allocation of the portfolio. Fixed Income ETFs: Up to 100% of the fixed income allocation of the portfolio may be invested in one or more well-diversified fixed income ETFs. Other Assets The Manager may not purchase assets other than those previously mentioned without a written permission from the CFAOC Board of Directors. Prohibited Transactions and Types Buying on margin Short selling Any ETFs utilizing leverage, short positions, or the equivalent are also prohibited. Option trading Commodity trading including all futures contracts Private Placements Asset Allocation It is understood that changing market cycles require that some flexibility in asset allocation be permissible. With this in mind, minimum and maximum asset allocation restrictions are given to allow movement of capital within the asset classes as deemed appropriate by the Managers for the purpose of increasing investment returns and/or reducing risk. Accordingly, the allowable asset mix ranges are as follows: Asset Type Cash Equities Fixed Income Target Range 0-20% 0-100% 0-100%
37
38
The TEAM is encouraged to develop a standardized research report form to be completed for each security under consideration for addition to, deletion from, or replacement in the PORTFOLIO. This report should include (1) the date of preparation; (2) the potential action to be taken (e.g., add, remove, replace and the volume recommended); (3) a checklist to insure that the potential action would leave the PORTFOLIO in compliance with IPS constraints; (4) indicators of current market pricing and investment desirability (e.g., P/E and PEG ratios, analyst opinions, past and projected pricing); (5) information regarding the health and future prospects of the issuer (including key accounting ratios (trend and comparison to industry), discussion of industry/issuer growth prospects, recent news, etc.); and (6) specific risks associated with the security and its issuer. During regular meetings, TEAM members will make investment recommendations, using their research and analysis to support the recommendation. A copy of each research and analysis report should be included in the minutes of the meeting at which it is presented. Following an initial recommendation, the TEAM should discuss the report. Additional information or analysis may be requested at this time. Decision Making Process All addition to, deletions from, a replacements in the PORTFOLIO must be approved by a majority (51% or more) of the TEAM members present when the vote is taken. A quorum of at least 70% of the members of the TEAM must be physically present before a vote can be taken. The vote on whether to approve a research and analysis recommendation [see (d)] will take place no sooner than the meeting following the initial recommendation. If additional information or analysis was requested, the vote to approve may take place immediately following presentation and discussion of that information. The faculty advisor will monitor all votes and ensure a quorum. The faculty advisor retains veto power over all investment decisions, although this power should be used sparingly. When a decision that requires positive action (i.e., the purchase or sale of securities) has been approved by the TEAM and the faculty advisor, the advisor (or the official student representative of the team, once the advisors approval has been given) should convey that decision within 24 hours, in writing (email suggested), along with minutes of the meeting in which the trade was approved, a record of the vote leading to the purchase request, and any supporting documentation that is required or requested, to the IPC. The order should indicate the security, the volume, and whether it is a buy or a sell. It is the responsibility of the IPC to order the approved trade within 48 of its receipt, barring a decision to veto the trade or a request for additional information about
the proposed trade (see (f ) below.) Supporting documentation should include, at a minimum, a copy of the research and analysis report, as approved by the TEAM. Trading Oversight and Control Each PORTFOLIO trade requires (1) a majority approval by the TEAM; (2) approval by the faculty advisor; and (3) approval by the IPC or its designated representative. All trades will be ordered by the IPC or its designated representative. No member of the TEAM, nor its faculty advisor, will have trading authority. The TEAM shall have account access to trading history and PORTFOLIO composition information only. In the event that the IPC or its representative deems a TEAM-approved trade undesirable, it is their responsibility to convey that belief and supporting information back to the TEAM and its faculty advisor, within 48 hours. The IPC or its representative should limit its authority to block approved trades to instances of (1) failure to comply with the IPS; (2) incomplete or incorrect information; and (3) demonstrably faulty analysis. A trade should not be blocked because it differs from IPC members personal or professional investment outlooks or preferences. v. Reporting Requirements Meeting Minutes As described in section (4)(a), Team Meetings, the TEAM is responsible for writing and maintaining detailed minutes of each meeting, to include TEAM member attendance, a summary of all issues discussed, recommendations made, actions approved, and copies of all materials reviewed. These minutes will be maintained in a journal or log and copies of that journal (and all past journals) will pass at the end of the year from one TEAM to the next. In addition, a copy of the journal will be provided to the IPC. The IPC is responsible for maintaining historical journals in case they are lost or damaged by a TEAM. Quarterly Report and Presentations to IPC On a quarterly basis, the TEAM will provide a PORTFOLIO performance report to the IPC. The performance report will include (1) a summary of the PORTFOLIO condition at the beginning of the quarter; (2) a summary of all transactions (purchases, sales, dividends and interest earned, etc.) over the course of the quarter; (3) a summary of the PORTFOLIO condition at the end of the quarter; (4) monthly return performance relative to the benchmark during the quarter; and (5) cumulative tracking error. Quarters run on a calendar basis (e.g., the first quarter of the year is January 1st through March 31st.) The quarterly report is due to the IPC within 30 days of the end of the quarter (e.g., the first quarters report is due by April 30th.) Note: The
2010 TEAM is responsible for completion of the 4th quarter 2010 report (as well as the 2010 annual report, described below.) TEAMS are required to make quarterly presentations to the IPC. The quarterly presentations will comprise of the quarterly performance report along with general market and economic update. The calendar for the upcoming year is as follows: February 11, 2011 2pm - Quarterly Review via Conference Call April 29, 2011 2pm - Quarterly Review - location tbd Annual Report and Presentation to CFAOC On or before the end of January 2011 the 2010 TEAM will prepare and provide to the IPC an Annual Report summarizing the activities and performance of the PORTFOLIO during their tenure as its managers. The information included in the report should include, at a minimum, the information contained in the four quarterly reports. The report should include a discussion of the recommendations that the team made in its original RFP, the actual investment decisions that were made during the year, what changed from the original recommendation to the final implementation, and why. Each TEAM is encouraged to produce a professional looking report that includes information about TEAM members, highlights from the year, and appropriate graphics. Reasonable costs (to be approved in advance by the CFAOCF Board) for reproducing the Annual Report are deemed acceptable overhead costs to be reimbursed by CFAOC or the PORTFOLIO. The Annual Report will be distributed to CFAOC members, the larger Orange County investments community, the local press, local academic institutions, and others. The team will have the opportunity to make a presentation to the CFAOC and CFAOCF Boards of Trustees and committees and to significant donors at a special pre-Forecast Dinner event to be held on the same day as the Annual CFAOC Forecast Dinner. Contact Information At the beginning of the year, complete contact information for the TEAM and its faculty advisor(s) will be provided to the IPC. This should include TEAM members names, addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses. In addition, the IPC will provide its members contact information to the TEAM and will designate one of its members as the primary contact for the TEAM.
39
40