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    $ffiffiffiwffi:"wffiffi #D, Ffiffi, W.ffii1tr"fl: Macondo Technical Note

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    $ffiffiffiwffi:"wffiffi #D, Ffiffi, W.ffii1tr"fl: Macondo Technical Note

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    TREX-03529

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    $ffiffiffiwffi:"wffiffi #D, Ffiffi, W.ffii1tr"fl: Macondo Technical Note

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    of 6

    bp

    MacondoTechnicalNote
    Tiile: Contributors: Shut-inPressures: Rangeand Likelihood MikeLevitan, Debbie Kercho, FarahSaidi, SimonBishop, Yun Wang, CharlesBondurant, AndrewSweeney, Galina DavidGrass,PierreAndreDepret, Tony Laio, Skripnikova, KellyMcAughan, ChrisCecil,Bob Merrill Bob Merrill M a y1 9 , 2 0 1 0 A - DRAFT

    lssuedby: Date: Version:

    QuestionAddressedin this TechnicalNote: As Bl' is currentlyevaluating optionstbr the lrlacondo kill well, this technidl addresses ftrllowing{uestitns: the *il$

    : $ffiffiffiwffi:"wffiffi #d,ffiffi,w.ffii1tr"
    . IsflXlifipffigl-+{*4,"er$nffi ld rP*
    expands uponearlier work documented a drafttechnical in notedatedl7-May. We arenot ableanswer third question this tinre;therewasinsuflicient the at time to obtainthe results from transient wellboresimulation. Key Conclusions l -8,100psiaand I 1,350 TheSIWHPis expected be betrveen psia.Thisrange to pressure zones, gas considers irnpact shallower the r.vhich foundat depths of high are bctwccn17,467 l7,806ftlvID-RKB. r . gas There\.vas consensus these zones that werelikely to be open.but the wasan areaof uncertainty. contribulion depletion these and of zones gas Theshallower zones l2,0ii0- 13.320 at ftN{D-RKB behind l35/sinch are the liner andarenot likelv to increase stated ranseof SIWHP. the

    This

    vszq
    Page1 of6 Confidential
    Exhibit No. Worldwide Court Inc.

    CONFIDENTIAL

    BP-HZN-21 79MDL0276694 1
    BPD209-004851

    the a 2. Theteamrvasrequested estimate likelihoodof SIWHPexceeding numberof to valucs. l'hc following figurc providcs that cstimatc. SIWHPis Exceeded Probabilitythat
    r00
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    70 6t) 50 40 30
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    t0 0

    It is clearthat theteambelieves thatthereis a 20% probability that the SIWHP psia. The teamalsobelieves the SIWHPj will exceed10,000 that

    psia. tikelyto beless than8,500


    The oil da

    ial ffi with ffiffiU$fonYrstcnt thcoil's PVT an GORFshow increasine lrend


    valueis consistent with a calculated SCF/stb SIWHPof -9.500 psia 1500

    probabrility Thetrendof GOR with time intluenced presented the cumulative chart.

    Attachments l. Pressure Ranges Calculation and N{ethods probabilities 2. Ivlethod Establishing fbr i. Tablcof Formation Propcrtics 4. ThermalGradient

    Page2 of 6

    Confidential

    CONFIDENTIAL

    79MDL021 76695 BP-HZN-21


    BPO209-004852

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    MethodUsedto DevelopCumulativeProbabilities
    The petroleum probabilities The curnulative weredetermined through pollingprocess. a werepresented modelresults, modelling the assumptions, and engineers the andreservoir the otherconsiderations / constraints. wasasked consider range Eachengineer a ofvalues(8000,8500.9000.9500, 10000, to judgenrent probability the in 10500, I l-i50 psia)andestimate theirown best the that and range 8,100psia a of SIWHPwouldexceed that value. As the modelspredicted pressure psia. probability exceeding and the of 8,000psiawasalmost1007o thatof to 11,350 I exceeding l.:i50psiawas07o. wrote down their values,they were polled in a randomorder tbr their After eachengineer probability. These pernreability estimated werethenaveraged create cumulative to a pressure. curv'efor each This rvasthenfollowedby a discussion the technical reasons of behindthe estimatesAt groupconsensus to increase probabilities was the of the conclusion this discussion of the psiaby 5ozo. fbr cxccedancc 10.000 and 10,500

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    Mear Mir Mar Probability tc Erceec Probabilih Probab{lih Pressure 95% 100o/o 8,00( 9901 86o/t 6001 100% 8.5001

    9.00(
    9.50( 10.00( 10.50( 11.35(

    ffio/. 3901 24o/,. 1204


    Qo/t

    30o/o 504

    10%
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    100o/o 100o/o 100o/o

    5SYo
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    Page4 of 6

    Confidential

    CONFIDENTIAL

    1 BP-HZN-21 79MDL02 76697


    BPD209-004854

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