Facts and Figures
Facts and Figures
Facts and Figures
3 billion to its members since the financial crisis began in 2008. The global economy is expected to expand 2.5 in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013, according to the Bank's January 2012 Global Economic Prospects update. Developing country growth has been revised down to 5.4 for 2012 while high-income country growth is now expected to come in at 1.4 percent. World trade, which expanded by an estimated 6.6 percent in 2011, will grow only 4.7 percent in 2012, before strengthening to 6.8 percent in 2013. What the World Bank Is Doing Updated January 18, 2012 Recovery from the global financial crisis remains fragile. Persistent risks to economic health include high unemployment, debt and low growth in developed countries, and access to financing for developing countries. In addition, food prices in 2011 were volatile and near their 2008 peak, and millions of people in the Horn of Africa are in urgent need of assistance as a result of devastating drought, conflict, and displacement. Since the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, the World Bank Group has committed $196.3 billion to developing countries, including record commitments in education, health, nutrition, population, and infrastructure, providing much-needed investments in crisis-hit economies:
$106.3 billion from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) which provides financing, risk management products, and other financial services to mainly to middle-income countries. $47.1 billion from the International Development Association (IDA), the World Banks fund for the poorest countries. $37.1 billion from IFC, the largest provider of multilateral financing for the private sector in developing countries. $5.7 billion from the Bank Groups political risk insurance arm Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).
Throughout the crisis, the Bank Group has helped keep children in school, health clinics open, and microfinance loans flowing to women. The Bank Groups commitments for social protection for the poorest and most vulnerableincluding school feeding and cash transfer programs, such as Mexicos Oportunidades -- reached more than $9 billion in 72 countries during fiscal years 2009-2011 (FY09-11). That figure is seven times the precrisis level of $1.2 billion. To boost food security, the Bank has increased annual financing for agriculture to $6 to $8 billion a year, up from $4.1 billion in 2008. The Banks $2 billion Global Food Crisis Response Program, established in response to the 2008 food crisis, is now assisting 40 million people. The Bank also set up the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP), at the request of the G20. Six countries and the Gates Foundation have pledged $925 million to boost country-led food security and agriculture programs over the next three years. On September 24, 2011, the Bank increased support to drought-stricken Horn of Africa to $1.88 billion. A $30 million grant to fight malnutrition and disease in refugee camps will come from a new Crisis Response Window established to respond quickly to emerging crises in low-income countries. Some $250 million from that fund is
earmarked for the Horn of Africa. And though growth has recovered in many developing countries, demand for Bank Group assistance remains high. The World Bank Group committed $57 billion in fiscal year 2011, including $16.3 billion for the poorest countries, up from $14.5 billion in FY10. IBRD commitments, at $26.7 billion, are nearly double the FY08, precrisis level of $13.5 billion, and follows record commitments of $44.2 billion in FY10 and $32.9 billion in FY09, as the crisis peaked in developing countries.
The 2008 financial crisis is affecting millions of Americans and is one of the hottest topics in the Presidential campaigns. In the last few months we have seen several major financial institutions be absorbed by other financial institutions, receive government bailouts, or outright crash. So what caused the financial crisis of 2008? This is actually the perfect storm which has been brewing for years now and finally reached its breaking point. Lets look at it step by step. This video explains the economic crisis: The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.
Market instability
The recent market instability was caused by many factors, chief among them a dramatic change in the ability to create new lines of credit, which dried up the flow of money and slowed new economic growth and the buying and selling of assets. This hurt individuals, businesses, and financial institutions hard, and many financial institutions were left holding mortgage backed assets that had dropped precipitously in value and werent bringing in the amount of money needed to pay for the loans. This dried up their reserve cash and restricted their credit and ability to make new loans. There were other factors as well, including the cheap credit which made it too easy for people to buy houses or make other investments based on pure speculation. Cheap credit created more money in the system and people wanted to spend that money. Unfortunately, people wanted to buy the same thing, which increased demand and caused inflation. Private equity firms leveraged billions of dollars of debt to purchase companies and created hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth by simply shuffling paper, but not creating anything of value. In more recent months speculation on oil prices and higher unemployment further increased inflation.
The broken windows theory is a criminological theory of the norm setting and signaling effect of urban disorder and vandalism on additional crime and anti-social behavior. The theory states that monitoring and maintaining urban environments in a well-ordered condition may stop further vandalism as well as an escalation into more serious crime. The theory was introduced in a 1982 article by social scientists James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling. Since then it has been subject to great debate both within the social sciences and in the public debate. The theory has been used as a motivation for several reforms in criminal policy. The broken windows theory has received support from several empirical studies. At the same time it has also been the subject of a large body of criticism.
Contents
[hide] 1 Article and book 2 Theoretical explanation 3 Support for the theory 3.1 New York City 3.2 Albuquerque 3.3 Lowell, Massachusetts 3.4 The Netherlands
4 Other advantages 5 Criticism of the theory 5.1 Criminology 5.2 Drawbacks in practice 5.3 Criticism in popular press
The article received a great deal of attention and was very widely cited. A 1996 criminology and urban sociology book, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities by George L. Kelling and a co-author Catharine Coles, is based on the article but develops the argument in greater detail. It discusses the theory in relation to crime and strategies to contain or eliminate crime from urban neighborhoods.[2] A successful strategy for preventing vandalism, say the book's authors, is to fix the problems when they are small. Repair the broken windows within a short time, say, a day or a week, and the tendency is that vandals are much less likely to break more windows or do further damage. Clean up the sidewalk every day, and the tendency is for litter not to accumulate (or for the rate of littering to be much less). Problems do not escalate and thus respectable residents do not flee a neighborhood. The theory thus makes two major claims: that further petty crime and low-level anti-social behavior will be deterred, and that major crime will, as a result, be prevented. Criticism of the theory has tended to focus only on the latter claim.
A major factor in determining individual behavior is social norms, internalized rules about the appropriate way to act in a certain situation. Humans constantly monitor other people and their environment in order to determine what the correct norms are for the given situation. They also monitor others to make sure that the others act in an acceptable way. In other words, people do as others do and the group makes sure that the rules are followed. However, when there are no people around, as is often the case in an anonymous, urban environment, the monitoring of or by others does not work. In such an environment, criminals are much more likely to get away with robberies, thefts, and vandalism. When there are few or no other people around, individuals are forced to look for other cluescalled signalsas to what the social norms allow them to do and how great is the risk of getting caught violating those norms. An ordered and clean environment sends the signal that this is a place which is monitored and people here conform to the common norms of non-criminal behavior; a disordered environment which is littered, vandalized, and not maintained sends the opposite signal: this is a place where people do as they please and get away with it without being detected. Therefore, as people tend to act the way they think others act, they are more likely to act "disorderly" in the disordered environment.
[edit] Albuquerque
Similar success occurred in Albuquerque, New Mexico in the late 1990s with its Safe Streets Program. Operating under the theory that American Westerners use roadways much in the same way that American Easterners use subways, the developers of the program reasoned that lawlessness on the roadways had much the same effect as the problem individuals in New York subways. This program was extensively reviewed by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and published in a case study.[4]
In 2005, Harvard University and Suffolk University researchers worked with local police to identify 34 "crime hot spots" in Lowell, Massachusetts. In half of the spots, authorities cleared trash, fixed streetlights, enforced building codes, discouraged loiterers, made more misdemeanor arrests, and expanded mental health services and aid for the homeless. In the other half, there was no change to routine police service. The areas that received additional attention experienced a 20% reduction in calls to the police. The study concluded that cleaning up the physical environment is more effective than misdemeanor arrests, and that increasing social services had no effect.[5][6]
[edit] Criminology
According to most criminologists who speak of a broader "backlash",[9] the broken windows theory is not theoretically sound.[10] They claim that the "broken windows theory" closely relates correlation with causality, a reasoning which is prone to fallacy. David Thacher, assistant professor of public policy and urban planning at the University of Michigan, stated in a 2004 paper that:[10]
[S]ocial science has not been kind to the broken windows theory. A number of scholars reanalyzed the initial studies that appeared to support it.... Others pressed forward with new, more sophisticated studies of the relationship between disorder and crime. The most prominent among them concluded that the relationship between disorder and serious crime is modest, and even that relationship is largely an artifact of more fundamental social forces.
It has also been argued that rates of major crimes also dropped in many other U.S. cities during the 1990s, both those that had adopted "zero-tolerance" policies and those that had not.[11] In the Winter 2006 edition of the University of Chicago Law Review, Bernard Harcourt and Jens Ludwig looked at the later Department of Housing and Urban Development program that rehoused inner-city project tenants in New York into more orderly neighborhoods.[12] The broken windows theory would suggest that these tenants would commit less crime once moved, due to the more stable conditions on the streets. Harcourt and Ludwig found instead that the tenants continued to commit crime at the same rate. In a 2007 study called "Reefer Madness" in the journal Criminology and Public Policy, Harcourt and Ludwig found further evidence confirming that mean reversion fully explained the changes in crime rates in the different precincts in New York during the 1990s[citation needed]. Further alternative explanations that have been put forward include the waning of the crack epidemic,[13] unrelated growth in the prison population due to Rockefeller drug laws,[13] and that the number of males aged 1624 was dropping regardless due to the shape of the US population pyramid.[14]
In the best-seller Freakonomics, economist Steven D. Levitt and co-author Stephen J. Dubner both confirm and cast doubt on the notion that the broken windows theory was responsible for New York's drop in crime. Levitt noticed that years before the 1990s, abortion was legalized. Women who were least able to raise kids (the poor, drug addicted and unstable) were able to get abortions, so the number of children being born in broken families was decreasing. Most crimes committed in New York are committed by 16- to 24-year old males; when this demographic decreased in number, the crime rate followed. At the same time, Levitt also found that the greater number of police as well an increased incarceration rate had contributed to the decline in crime. Levitt's book is based on published scientific studies that have been subject to peer-review.
The broken window theory is based on an Atlantic Monthly article published in 1982. It's worth reading the article to get a deeper understanding of the human factors driving the theory: Second, at the community level, disorder and crime are usually inextricably linked, in a kind of developmental sequence. Social psychologists and police officers tend to agree that if a window in a building is broken and is left unrepaired, all the rest of the windows will soon be broken. This is as true in nice neighborhoods as in rundown ones. Window-breaking does not necessarily occur on a large scale because some areas are inhabited by determined window-breakers whereas others are populated by window-lovers; rather, one unrepaired broken window is a signal that no one cares, and so breaking more windows costs nothing. (It has always been fun.) Philip Zimbardo, a Stanford psychologist, reported in 1969 on some experiments testing the broken-window theory. He arranged to have an automobile without license plates parked with its hood up on a street in the Bronx and a comparable automobile on a street in Palo Alto, California. The car in the Bronx was attacked by "vandals" within ten minutes of its "abandonment." The first to arrive were a family--father, mother, and young son--who removed
the radiator and battery. Within twenty-four hours, virtually everything of value had been removed. Then random destruction began--windows were smashed, parts torn off, upholstery ripped. Children began to use the car as a playground. Most of the adult "vandals" were welldressed, apparently clean-cut whites. The car in Palo Alto sat untouched for more than a week. Then Zimbardo smashed part of it with a sledgehammer. Soon, passersby were joining in. Within a few hours, the car had been turned upside down and utterly destroyed. Again, the "vandals" appeared to be primarily respectable whites. Untended property becomes fair game for people out for fun or plunder and even for people who ordinarily would not dream of doing such things and who probably consider themselves lawabiding. Because of the nature of community life in the Bronx--its anonymity, the frequency with which cars are abandoned and things are stolen or broken, the past experience of "no one caring"--vandalism begins much more quickly than it does in staid Palo Alto, where people have come to believe that private possessions are cared for, and that mischievous behavior is costly. But vandalism can occur anywhere once communal barriers--the sense of mutual regard and the obligations of civility--are lowered by actions that seem to signal that "no one cares." There's even an entire book on this subject. What's fascinating to me is that the mere perception of disorder-- even with seemingly irrelevant petty crimes like graffiti or minor vandalism -precipitates a negative feedback loop that can result in total disorder: We suggest that "untended" behavior also leads to the breakdown of community controls. A stable neighborhood of families who care for their homes, mind each other's children, and confidently frown on unwanted intruders can change, in a few years or even a few months, to an inhospitable and frightening jungle. A piece of property is abandoned, weeds grow up, a window is smashed. Adults stop scolding rowdy children; the children, emboldened, become more rowdy. Families move out, unattached adults move in. Teenagers gather in front of the corner store. The merchant asks them to move; they refuse. Fights occur. Litter accumulates. People start drinking in front of the grocery; in time, an inebriate slumps to the sidewalk and is allowed to sleep it off. Pedestrians are approached by panhandlers. At this point it is not inevitable that serious crime will flourish or violent attacks on strangers will occur. But many residents will think that crime, especially violent crime, is on the rise, and they will modify their behavior accordingly. They will use the streets less often, and when on the streets will stay apart from their fellows, moving with averted eyes, silent lips, and hurried steps. "Don't get involved." For some residents, this growing atomization will matter little, because the neighborhood is not their "home" but "the place where they live." Their interests are elsewhere; they are cosmopolitans. But it will matter greatly to other people, whose lives derive meaning and satisfaction from local attachments rather than worldly involvement; for them, the neighborhood will cease to exist except for a few reliable friends whom they arrange to meet. Programming is insanely detail oriented, and perhaps this is why: if you're not on top of the details, the perception is that things are out of control, and it's only a matter of time before your project spins out of control. Maybe we should be sweating the small stuff. Posted by Jeff Atwood UI is Hard Keyboarding: Dell Minimalist Comments The same thing applies to comment spam, which is why it's important to fight the good fight and clean it up.
Haacked on June 24, 2005 2:07 AM Totally agree. I've had that exact thought before when browsing blogs totally overrun with comment spam. When the author has seemingly abandoned his/her blog, It's hard to take the content seriously no matter how good it is. Jeff Atwood on June 24, 2005 8:46 AM Interesting. I noticed the same thing about bicycles in Berkeley (on the campus). I would notice that a bike was in the same place day after day, and it remained untouched. After a week or two, I would notice that one of the wheels had been stolen. After that, the bike had about 3 days before it was stripped down to the frame. (Sometimes a wheel would be left as well if that wheel was locked up, but the wheel would be bent.) David on January 13, 2006 11:00 AM I think this works in reverse, too - I call it the Disney World Effect. The place is so clean, so perfect, that nobody would dare litter. You'll see people walk across the street to throw away the tiniest piece of trash. Few people want to be the first person to mess something up. But if the application is already hopelessly packed with bad and incomplete code, what's a little more going to hurt? jim on July 7, 2006 5:36 AM Do you think that this can be attested to people aren't tidy? Ewaku on November 9, 2007 4:34 AM If your windows are boarded up anyway, it's probably better to just have a wall. Don't claim to include features and then tell the user they're not implemented yet. That's still a broken window. WurdBendur on June 2, 2008 10:44 AM +1 WurdBendur - Amen. Mark Smith on June 3, 2008 4:25 AM If this is meant to be an analogy to neglecting your personal blog,I understand and agree. However,if it is attempting to show human actions in a broken window scenario,reading this and writing this is a superficial diatribe which plainly is a waste of time RuthE. on November 25, 2008 7:36 AM my windonw has just been smashed. Bummer. siking on March 1, 2009 9:09 AM Someone nearby crushed every window on one house un our neighbourhood. There I suggested that they hang name plates on windows and doors to make sure burglars know they should not be messing around them. I also posted some information about those name plates on my blog. David on September 28, 2010 12:23 AM Very interesting analogy here. I agree that everything should me maintained well in our lives would it be work, house or relationships. Ontario used cars Liliya Tyndyk on January 6, 2011 1:22 AM The comments to this entry are closed.
Content (c) 2011 Jeff Atwood. Logo image used with permission of the author. (c) 1993 Steven C. McConnell. All Rights Reserved.
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