BBA BA UNIT 4
BBA BA UNIT 4
BBA BA UNIT 4
Prescriptive Analytics is a type of data analytics that goes beyond descriptive and predictive
analytics. While descriptive analytics tells you what has happened, and predictive analytics
forecasts what is likely to happen, prescriptive analytics focuses on providing actionable
recommendations for how to handle future situations. It suggests the best course of action
based on the data.
Prescriptive analytics uses a combination of data, algorithms, machine learning, and
optimization techniques to recommend decisions or actions to improve outcomes. This type
of analysis can assist in decision-making by offering solutions that maximize positive results
or minimize potential risks.
1. Visual Clarity
• Graphical Representation: Decision trees present decisions, chance events, and
outcomes in a simple visual format, making it easy to follow the logic.
• Simplifies Complexity: Breaks down complex decisions into manageable steps.
2. Data-Driven Decisions
• Incorporates Probabilities: Uses probabilities to assess the likelihood of outcomes,
leading to informed and data-based decisions.
• Payoff Calculation: Quantifies potential costs, risks, and rewards for each decision
path.
3. Risk Assessment
• Identifies Risks: Highlights potential risks associated with different choices.
• Prepares for Uncertainty: Helps anticipate and prepare for uncertain events.
4. Flexibility
• Accommodates Multiple Scenarios: Handles multiple outcomes and choices
simultaneously, useful in dynamic environments.
• Adaptive to Change: Can be updated with new data to reflect changes in
assumptions or conditions.
6. Enhances Communication
• Cross-Functional Understanding: Provides a common framework for discussions
among stakeholders.
• Easy Presentation: Suitable for explaining decisions to non-technical audiences.
Practical Applications
• Business: Product launches, resource allocation, or investment decisions.
• Healthcare: Treatment plans based on probabilities of outcomes.
• Education: Designing curricula or policies based on success probabilities.
• E-commerce: Predicting customer behavior or inventory management.
6. Assign Probabilities
• Assign probabilities to chance events.
• Ensure the probabilities for all branches from a chance node add up to 1.
• Example: Probability of high demand (70%) + low demand (30%) = 1.
8. Evaluate and Choose the Best Option
• Compare the expected values or utilities of all alternatives.
• Select the option that aligns best with your objectives and risk tolerance.
• Example: Launching the product has the highest EV, so choose this option.
2. Data Collection
o Collect data on past borrowers, including:
▪ Demographic Information: Age, income, employment type.
▪ Loan Details: Amount, tenure, interest rate.
▪ Credit History: Previous defaults, credit score.
▪ Payment Behavior: Timeliness of past repayments.
3. Risk Assessment
o Methodology: Use predictive modeling to classify borrowers based on default
risk.
o Steps:
▪ Data Cleaning: Remove outliers or incomplete records.
▪ Feature Engineering: Create relevant variables (e.g., debt-to-income
ratio).
▪ Model Selection: Train machine learning models (e.g., Logistic
Regression, Decision Trees, or Random Forest).
o Outcome: A predictive model assigning a probability of default to each
customer.
4. Risk Mitigation
o Based on the model output:
▪ High-Risk Borrowers:
▪ Increase loan interest rates.
▪ Reduce loan approval amounts.
▪ Request additional collateral.
▪ Low-Risk Borrowers:
▪ Offer competitive rates and larger loan amounts.
o Develop educational programs for customers with poor credit habits.
Results
• Actionable Insights:
o Identify that borrowers with a credit score below 600 are 80% more likely to
default.
o Customers with high debt-to-income ratios are flagged as high risk.
• Impact:
o Reduction in loan defaults by 25%.
o Improved profitability and better customer targeting.
Tools Used
• Statistical Tools: R, Python (for model building).
• Visualization Tools: Power BI, Tableau (to create risk dashboards).
• Data Sources: Internal loan databases, credit bureau reports.
2. Feature Extraction
o Convert text into a structured format for analysis.
o Common methods:
▪ Bag of Words (BoW): Represents text as word frequencies or
occurrences.
▪ TF-IDF (Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency): Highlights
important words by balancing frequency and uniqueness.
▪ Word Embeddings: Represents words as vectors (e.g., Word2Vec,
GloVe).
3. Text Classification
o Categorize text into predefined classes.
o Example: Spam vs. non-spam emails, positive vs. negative sentiments.
4. Sentiment Analysis
o Determine the sentiment or emotional tone in the text.
o Example: Analyzing customer reviews to identify positive or negative
feedback.
6. Topic Modeling
o Discover hidden topics or themes within a collection of documents.
o Techniques: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Non-Negative Matrix
Factorization (NMF).
7. Text Clustering
o Group similar text data into clusters without predefined categories.
o Example: Grouping similar customer queries for automated responses.
6. Risk Management
• Detecting Fraud: Text analytics can identify unusual patterns or inconsistencies in
text-based data, such as insurance claims or financial reports, which may indicate
fraud.
• Compliance Monitoring: Helps organizations analyze legal and regulatory documents
to ensure compliance.
• Example: Banks use text analytics to detect fraudulent claims or anomalies in
transactional data.