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    of 7

    FORBES INNOVATION

    Vinod Yeruva Former Forbes Councils Member


    Forbes Technology Council COUNCIL POST | Membership (Fee-Based)

    Feb 14, 2022, 06:30am EST

    Updated Feb 16, 2022, 10:02am EST

    Vinod Kumar, Associate Director of Tata Communications.


    GETTY

    You can now hitch a free ride in a driverless vehicle on the streets of San Francisco.
    Waymo, Google’s self-driving car company, has begun product testing in real road
    conditions — a breakthrough for autonomous vehicle technology. These vehicles could
    unleash new development, not seen since the dawn of the Internet. The impact on how we
    live and work could be as transformative as when Henry Ford had the first assembly line
    in the last century.
    The total global investment in autonomous vehicle(AV) technology exceeds $200 billion
    already, and that figure is set to increase rapidly as competition intensifies. At the same
    time, countries throughout the world are investing in infrastructure to facilitate AV
    production and adoption. It will not be long before commercial fleets make the shift. Any
    impact on the logistics industry would create a domino effect that changes retail,
    commerce and eventually every aspect of our lives.

    Let us explore a scenario where autonomous vehicles are as ubiquitous as the mobile
    phone and look at six key areas they could impact.

    The Auto Industry: Shift From Private To Public?

    Self-driving cars would have the same impact on the auto industry that the smartphone
    had on telecommunication: massive and unpredictable. Current AV research is primarily
    focussing on mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) offerings. These are driverless fleets, similar to
    Uber, that one could hail at the press of a button. They would be much more cost-
    effective, as no driver wages need to be paid. The prevalence of such options could result
    in the decline of private car ownership, creating a ripple effect on everything from fuel
    prices to insurance and even state revenue structures.

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    Traffic Systems: Increased Or Decreased Efficiency?

    Experts are conflicted on the impact AV technology could have on road infrastructure.
    Optimists predict an overhauled and more efficient road system, with commute times
    declining rapidly. Intersections and mergers would no longer produce an accordion effect,
    resulting in much smoother traffic flow. Less congestion would mean fewer emissions and
    safer driving conditions, since the human error factor has been eliminated.

    Pragmatists, on the other hand, predict an increase in congestion due to more cars being
    allowed on roads. Moreover, we have to factor in the transition time. It could be decades
    before every manual car has been taken off the roads. As long as human-driven cars and
    self-driving cars coexist, human error cannot be fully eliminated.

    Road Infrastructure: More Space For Urban Planning?

    Driverless cars could potentially reduce the need for parking space, especially in
    congested inner-city areas. One could envision public AV fleets constantly on the move or
    even private AV cars being “sent back home” after dropping their owners to work for the
    day. Perhaps city planners would turn parking dead zones into parks and playgrounds,
    creating greener cities. Road construction and design would also change, as AV cars are
    expected to communicate with each other electronically. One can expect new charging
    stations, mobile towers and road sensors that enable this communication.

    Logistics Industry: New Services And Business Models?

    Supply chain operations could see a broad range of potential effects, impacting everything
    from jobs to safety and pricing. Logistic companies, already suffering labor shortage,
    could adopt AV technology faster than we think. Still, it is hard to imagine a long-haul
    eighteen-wheeler speeding down our highways without a driver. A more realistic
    assumption would be a driver switching between auto and manual modes on long drives.
    The industry could also expand into a variety of new commercial services such as onboard
    retailing and dining.

    Human Health: Equitable Access To Mobility?

    Driverless cars are going to make mobility more accessible for those currently unable to
    drive. It would allow senior citizens, people with disabilities and potentially even children,
    greater access to independent commuting. Also, safer road travel, in general, would
    reduce the chances of injury due to accidents. According to Compact, “only a 1% reduction
    in road safety incidents would — in the U.S. alone — result in a cost reduction of more
    than $8 billion annually, which implies significant value to be gained from AVs for several
    stakeholders including the users of the vehicles.”

    It is important, however, to factor in the presence of criminal elements in society.


    Criminals could have the potential power to hack into AV vehicles and cause massive
    damage to life and property. All of these different scenarios would create ripple effects on
    health and accident insurance. Who is responsible for insurance payment? Who is
    protected by that payment? These questions would need to be rethought and new policies
    implemented before we can introduce AV on any significant scale.

    The Job Market: Growth Of New Roles And Skills?

    As is typical of any new technology, AVs would make specific jobs redundant, while
    creating new job opportunities and the need to upskill. The driver job role could
    transform into an AV specialist, someone who manages AV control while also providing
    customer service in MaaS offerings. New roles like AV technicians, remote AV controllers
    and AV service managers would emerge, creating new qualifications. The necessary
    training infrastructure here could boost the education sector.

    Improved Productivity Or Just More Netflix?

    With so much additional free time during their commute, workers’ daily lives would see a
    significant change. As cited by Compact in the linked article above, “automated vehicles
    could free up as much as 50 minutes each day per passenger in the US that had previously
    been dedicated to driving.” Experts predict economic growth on the assumption that
    people will use this time for greater economic productivity. But what if people used this
    time to just watch more Netflix?

    Ultimately, the success of automated vehicle technology depends on the strategies and
    policies implemented around its adoption. Factors like people’s trust in the system, its
    reliability and its security will impact the speed and direction of adoption. Collaboration
    between different disciplines and stakeholders is key to managing this transition.
    Forbes Technology Council is an invitation-only community for world-class CIOs, CTOs
    and technology executives. Do I qualify?

    Follow me on LinkedIn. Check out my website.

    Vinod Yeruva

    Vinod Kumar, Associate Director of Tata Communications.

    Editorial Standards Forbes Accolades

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