Climate Dynamics (2024) 62:7095–7110

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07267-2

Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack

in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin
Y. Ezber1 · D. Bozkurt2,3,4 · O. L. Sen1

Received: 5 August 2023 / Accepted: 4 May 2024 / Published online: 14 May 2024
© The Author(s) 2024

Abstract
Understanding the hydrometeorological impacts of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on mountain snowpack is crucial for water
resources management in the snow-fed river basins such as the Euphrates-Tigris (ET). In this study, we investigate the con-
tribution of wintertime (December-January–February) ARs to precipitation and snowpack in the headwater regions of the
ET Basin for the period of 1979–2019 using a state-of-the-art AR catalog and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results show that
AR days in the headwaters region could be warmer by up to 3 °C and wetter by over 5 mm ­day−1 compared to non-AR days.
The contribution of ARs to the total winter precipitation varies from year to year, with a maximum contribution of over 80%
in 2010 and an average contribution of 60% over the 40-year period. While snow accumulation on AR days shows spatial
variability, the average snow contribution is 27% of the seasonal average, ranging from 12 to 57% for different years. The
south-facing parts of the mountain range experience significant snowmelt, with contributions ranging from 15 to 80% for
different years. The high total precipitation (60%) and low snowpack (27%) contribution can be attributed to the semi-arid
characteristics of the region and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events, where rain falling on existing snow rapidly melts
the snowpack. The findings have implications for water resource management and call for continued research to improve
our knowledge of ARs and their interactions with the complex terrain of the ET Basin.

Keywords Atmospheric Rivers · The Euphrates-Tigris Basin · Snow accumulation · Precipitation

1 Introduction ARs and extratropical cyclones greatly changes (Zhang

et al. 2019). The vast amount of poleward moisture transport
An atmospheric river (AR) is defined as “a long, narrow, and accounts for almost 90% of the water cycle at midlatitudes
transient corridor of strong horizontal water vapor transport (Zhu and Newell 1998). Most of the moisture within ARs
that is typically associated with a low-level jet (LLJ) stream occurs in the first few kilometers of the lower troposphere
ahead of the cold front of an extratropical cyclone” (Ameri- due to neutral moist static stability (Ralph et al. 2005) and is
can Meteorological Society, 2024). 82% of ARs occurring rapidly transported by the LLJ before being lifted by a cold
on the western coast of the United States are associated front or the other lifting mechanisms such as orographic
with extratropical cyclones, while only 45% of extratropi- lifting (Nayak and Villarini 2017). The combination of high
cal cyclones have a paired AR and the distance between water vapor content with strong horizontal wind results in
heavy precipitation on elevated terrain, leading to hazardous
* Y. Ezber flooding events (Ralph et al. 2006; Neiman et al. 2002, 2011;
[email protected] Leung and Qian 2009; Lavers et al. 2011, 2012; Waliser
and Guan 2017; De Luca et al. 2017; Ramos et al. 2018;
1
Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical Yang et al. 2018; Ridder et al. 2018; Corringham et al. 2019;
University, Istanbul, Türkiye
Xiong et al. 2019; Lorente‐Plazas et al. 2020; Bozkurt et al.
2
Departamento de Meteorología, Universidad de Valparaíso, 2021). Furthermore, these heavy precipitation events can
Valparaíso, Chile
also trigger landslides (Cordeira et al. 2019) and debris flows
3
Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, (Oakley et al. 2023) in adjacent areas.
Chile
AR-induced heavy precipitation can occur particularly
4
Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, when the AR is directed toward topographical barriers (e.g.,
Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile

Vol.:(0123456789)
7096 Y. Ezber et al.

Neiman et al. 2002; Ralph et al. 2004; Junker et al. 2008). et al. 2020), and the cooling of the westerly moist air mass
ARs that are more perpendicular to the topographic barri- due to topographic lifting (Bozkurt and Sen 2011). The
ers result in higher water vapor convergence in the lower moisture distribution exhibits a west–east gradient across
troposphere, leading to substantial precipitation (Hecht and the Mediterranean, with the western part receiving mois-
Cordeira 2017). The orographic precipitation decreases ture advection from the North Atlantic and the eastern part
water vapor transport as the AR penetrates further inland. influenced by the Mediterranean Sea and local moisture
However, lower or less continuous topography allows further recycling (Batibeniz et al. 2020). Additionally, the Red
inland penetration of AR-induced precipitation (Rutz et al. Sea and the tropical Atlantic off the coast of Africa can be
2014). critical moisture sources for ARs impacting the Middle
The hydrometeorological effects of ARs on their target East and North Africa (MENA) region and its highlands
regions can be beneficial or destructive as reflected in the (Dezfuli 2020; Bozkurt et al. 2021; Francis et al 2022).
AR scale developed by Ralph et al (2019). On the positive Studies have also shown that extreme precipitation events
side, ARs bring beneficial rain and snow, which serve as a over the dry deserts of the Middle East are associated with
crucial source of fresh water (Guan et al. 2010, 2013; Det- the intrusion of a mid-latitude upper-level trough, known
tinger et al. 2011; Rutz and Steenburgh 2012; Lavers and as the Mediterranean trough, into the subtropics, and the
Villarini 2015; Viale et al. 2018; Saavedra et al. 2020). Con- deepening and northward amplification of the surface low
versely, ARs can also cause extreme precipitation and/or pressure over the Red Sea region (de Vries et al. 2018).
rapid snowmelt, resulting in hazardous floods due to factors Furthermore, the presence of a Mediterranean trough and
such as rain-on-snow and warm air advection (Ralph et al. high pressure over the eastern margins of the Arabian Pen-
2006; Neiman et al. 2008, 2011; Warner et al. 2012; Kim insula at the upper atmospheric level trigger the formation
et al. 2013; Rössler et al. 2014; Guan et al. 2016; Waliser and of a long, narrow path for warm-moist tropical air trans-
Guan 2017; Dezfuli 2020; Bozkurt et al. 2021). port mostly in the form of an AR. The strength of this
ARs primarily impact coastal regions located near vast trough-ridge system can influence the transport of moist
ocean basins, such as the west coast of the US, Europe, and air masses further inland with strong upper-level jets, lead-
South America. However, ARs also have the potential to ing to extreme precipitation events (Bozkurt et al. 2019;
impact regions far inland from their point of origin. Some Sen et al. 2019; Dezfuli 2020). Additionally, poleward
Atlantic ARs can even reach locations such as Anatolia and warm air advection can cause floods in this region due to
the Middle East, which are significantly distant from their the rapid snow melting during the snowmelt (early spring)
initial landfall points (Dezfuli 2020; Bozkurt et al. 2021). season (Bozkurt et al. 2021).
Perhaps because of the fact that the magnitude of ARs and Even though the number of AR-related studies has
their destructive impacts in these regions are not as severe increased recently for the Euro-Mediterranean-MENA
as in other well-known AR regions, they have received less region, these studies mostly exhibit the impacts of hazard-
scientific attention (Payne et al. 2020; Dezfuli 2020; Bozkurt ous AR-induced floods (Akbary et al. 2019; Dezfuli 2020;
et al. 2021). Bozkurt et al. 2021; Esfandiari and Lashkari 2021; Sadeghi
Euphrates-Tigris (ET) Basin in the Middle East, et al. 2021). Besides, it is also essential to investigate the
mostly characterized by arid and semi-arid climates, is AR’s contribution to the snowpack in the upstream moun-
influenced by overland ARs. The water scarcity in this tainous watersheds. The wintertime snowpack in the high-
basin is mitigated by the Euphrates-Tigris rivers, which lands is a significant water reservoir, and the snowmelt run-
are primarily fed by the snowmelt runoff from the Near off is the main water resource for all riparian countries in
East’s Highlands including the Taurus and Zagros Moun- the ET Basin. The main objective of this study is, therefore,
tains, often referred to as the water towers of the region. to investigate the impacts of ARs on the snowpack in the
Hence changes in snowpack in the headwaters of these basin’s headwaters in winter, and whether the ARs induce
rivers affect the downstream agriculture and domes- increases in snow accumulation or depletion (due to the
tic freshwater use (Yilmaz et al. 2019). The west–east potential rain-on-snow effect).
and southeast-northwest orientations of the Taurus and This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents
Zagros mountains ranges act as effective topographic bar- the data used and methodology. In Section 3, the results are
riers, enhancing windward precipitation from incoming shown, analyzing wintertime integrated water vapor trans-
moisture-laden air masses. The main sources of the high port (IVT) pattern and the thermodynamic and dynamic
amount of annual precipitation during the wet season in structure of winter ARs over the region. It also focuses on
the Middle East, including Anatolian Peninsula, are the interannual changes in the hydrometeorological variables in
midlatitude cyclones crossing over the Mediterranean the headwater region of the ET Basin, providing an example
basin, which primarily originate from the Atlantic Ocean of an influential winter AR. The conclusions are provided
(Bozkurt and Sen 2011; Lolis and Türkeş 2016; Batibeniz in Section 4.
Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7097

2 Data and methods landfall location, basic statics of frequency, duration,

maximum IVT, and event-total IVT AR metrics. More
This study used the new version of the global AR data- detail about the technique can be found in Guan et al.
base released by Guan and Waliser (2019). This updated (2018) and Guan and Waliser (2019). Our approach
version of the Tracking Atmospheric Rivers Globally as to studying ARs is based on the criterion that at least
Elongated Targets (tARget) algorithm (Guan and Wal- one timestep of the dataset is covered by the AR shape
iser 2015; Guan et al. 2018) includes a refined method boundaries over the area of interest (black dashed box in
for identifying the AR axis and adds the capability to Fig. 1). In calculating the AR frequency, we applied the
track ARs from genesis to termination around the globe. method used by Bozkurt et al. (2021) for the same region.
This enhancement specifically facilitates the detection of This method involves counting the AR shape boundaries
ARs characterized by climatologically low water vapor detected for 6-h timesteps in each grid cell and dividing
transport that travels far inland, which is relevant to the it by the total number of 6-h timesteps for the respec-
area where this study was conducted. The AR database tive period. We define an "AR-day" as a day in which
of Guan and Waliser (2019) was generated for the period at least one of the four reanalysis times falls within the
of 1979–2019 using IVT calculations from global spe- detected AR shape boundaries over the specified region
cific humidity and wind components at 17 pressure lev- in Fig. 1. Considerable thought was given to defining the
els with a 1.5ox1.5° horizontal resolution and a 6-hourly AR-detection region to ensure no potential AR impacts
time resolution of the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. were overlooked from any direction within the ET Basin.
The AR detection method, as adopted by Guan and Wal- Therefore, as depicted in Fig. 1, our focus was on the
iser (2015), provides outputs that include the axis, shape, highlands of the Near East. Yet, since our research centers
on the AR's effects on water resources in the ET Basin,

Fig. 1  AR frequency (days per season) of each season between 1979 and 2019 for the dashed box
7098 Y. Ezber et al.

we prioritized the headwater region in our impact analy- 3 Results

sis. We focused on the winter season, which includes the
months of December, January, and February (DJF). 3.1 Seasonal AR frequency and wintertime IVT
For evaluating the AR impacts on the region, we used pattern over the euro‑mediterranean region
daily air temperature at 2-m, total precipitation, snow
water equivalent (SWE), snowmelt, radiation budget com- Figure 1 shows the seasonal mean number of days per year
ponents (net longwave and shortwave radiation, down- with AR conditions (i.e., at least one 6-h AR step) for the
ward shortwave and longwave radiation) data with a hori- 1979–2019 period, where the AR intersects with the dashed
zontal resolution of 0.25 ox0.25° from the hourly ERA5 box in the figure. The frequency of ARs is relatively high
data from ECMWF (Hersbach et al. 2023). In addition to over the North Atlantic (about 4 days) and low in subtropical
surface data, we used geopotential height at 500 hPa and regions (around 2 days depending on the season). In eastern
wind components at 200 hPa to investigate the synoptic Anatolia, where the main headwaters are located, AR condi-
scale features on AR days. tions occur for 2–4 days during winter, fall, and spring, but
The daily changes of hydro-climatological variables are rare in summer. The seasonal importance of ARs varies
(total precipitation, SWE, snowmelt) were calculated between the west and east of the box, which covers the ET
using the approach by Guan et al. (2010) and Saave- basin, a vital water resource for Mesopotamia. ARs are most
dra et al. (2020). We used a one-day time window that frequent during the transition seasons of fall and spring, and
included the day before and the day after each AR event. a high AR frequency during the spring melting season is
The daily accumulation was calculated by summing the crucial for the region's freshwater resources (Bozkurt et al.
differences in variables before and after the AR event, and 2021). However, AR occurrence in winter is also important
only positive values were considered for the AR contribu- since it can affect the snowpack over rough terrain.
tion. We also calculated changes in snowmelt by applying Batibeniz et al. (2020) demonstrated that the eastern
the same approach to define the AR effects on snowmelt. Mediterranean serves as the primary moisture source for the
The Student-t test was applied to determine the signifi- precipitation pattern in its surrounding regions during spring
cance of IVT and air temperature anomalies on AR days. and summer. Figure 2 reveals that this moisture source is
also essential in winter, as indicated by relatively large daily
mean composites of IVT values (120–180 kg ­m−1 ­s−1) on

Fig. 2  Composite DJF IVT and

IVT vectors (zonal and meridi-
onal components) on AR days
intersecting with the dashed box
for the period 1979–2019
Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7099

“AR days”. The pattern of IVT composites in DJF extends composite daily mean IVT anomalies on winter “AR days”
towards the western Mediterranean and the Black Sea. In in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East range
addition, the AR-affected region is constrained along the from + 30–60 kg ­m−1 ­s−1 (statistically significant at 95%
coast of northern Africa due to the anticyclone over northern confidence level). The IVT in the Levant Basin also exhibits
Africa and a diagonal pattern of the Arabian anticyclone significant anomalies exceeding + 60 kg ­m−1 ­s−1. Surface air
that extends between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. temperature at 2 m indicates a dipole-like anomaly pattern
IVT values range from 60 to 110 kg ­m−1 ­s−1 over eastern between Europe and the Middle East including Türkiye. The
Anatolia (dashed line box). The major features of the IVT climatological 0 °C contour (green line in Fig. 3b) aligns
patterns are very similar to the findings of Bozkurt et al. with the borders of mountain ranges such as the Taurus and
(2021) for early spring, except for the diagonal location of the eastern Black Sea Mountains in Anatolia. Significant
the Arabian anticyclone. warmer temperature anomalies over + 3 °C appear over
eastern Anatolia, northeastern Africa, and the Caspian Sea
3.2 Dynamic and thermodynamic background Basin. Moreover, the entire ET Basin experiences significant
on winter AR days temperature anomalies (reaching up to + 3 °C at headwaters)
on AR days, which is important considering the changing
AR conditions are associated with two ridges over the Atlan- winter snowpack characteristics in the region that we focus
tic and the Middle East and Caspian Sea Basin, with a trough on in the following sections. ARs formed under favorable
located over the Mediterranean in between. These large- synoptic conditions also induce changes in hydrometeoro-
scale features were also identified by Bozkurt et al (2021) logical variables in the region.
for their study period in March and April. However, for DJF,
the locations of these features are more westward. A strong 3.3 Hydrometeorological changes on winter AR
anticyclone dominates over the south of the domain from days
east-southeast of Türkiye, Middle East to the Caspian Sea,
and the broader eastern Mediterranean trough deepens under Figures 4a and b show the anomalies in total precipita-
winter AR conditions with respect to climatology (Fig. 3a). tion and SWE on winter AR days compared to climatol-
The subtropical jet (200 hPa upper-level winds) is particu- ogy. Following the significant increases in IVT, total pre-
larly strong over central North Africa, with speeds exceeding cipitation increases in the eastern Mediterranean – Black
60 ­ms−1 on winter AR days (Fig. SP1a). The jet stream under Sea region (Fig. 4a). The increase is particularly prominent
AR conditions, compared to climatology, strengthens over along the Taurus Mountains (above + 3.5 mm ­day−1) and
the entire Mediterranean Basin but weakens over the Middle Zagros Mountains (above + 5 mm ­day−1). However, despite
East due to the presence of high pressure (Fig. SP1b). The the precipitation increase, Fig. 4b indicates a decrease in

Fig. 3  a Anomalies of IVT (shaded) and IVT vectors (zonal and 2 m (shaded), and climatology of 0 °C (green contour). Strips show a
meridional components), and geopotential height at 500 hPa (con- 95% significance for IVT and 2-m temperature based on the Student-t
tour) on AR days for winter. b same as (a) but for air temperature at test
7100 Y. Ezber et al.

Fig. 4  Anomalies of AR days from the 1979–2019 DJF climatology the headwaters of the Euphrates and Tigris Basin is located. Gray
for total precipitation (TP) (a), snow water equivalent (SWE) (b), and solid contour shows 1200 m elevation
snowmelt (SMLT) (c). The dashed box demonstrates roughly where

SWE across most of the region, indicating that precipita- the one-day window over the Anatolian peninsula ranges
tion occurs mostly in the form of rain. This is supported by from 50 mm in inland regions to over 200 mm in the coastal
the increased snowmelt below 1200 m elevation on these region on winter AR days (Fig. 5c). The climatology of win-
days (Fig. 4c). Although SWE generally exhibits a declin- ter total precipitation exceeds 375 mm in the west and north-
ing characteristic, some regions in the eastern Anatolia and east coasts of Anatolian Peninsula, while high mountain
Zagros Mountains including the headwaters of the ET Basin ranges such as the Taurus, eastern Black Sea, and the Zagros
experience an increase in SWE (Fig. 4b). On AR days, snow- Mountains exhibit a high 40-year climatological winter total
melt reaches approximately 1 mm ­day−1 along the borders TP of 300 mm. Total precipitation for all-day climatology
of the high mountain ranges in both the northern and south- averages around 230 mm in the headwater region of the ET
ern parts of the region and around 0.4 mm ­day−1 in eastern Basin (dashed box in Fig. 5d). On AR days, the accumu-
Anatolia (Fig. 4c). Similar behavior is observed along the lation of ΔTP in the headwater region is around 140 mm,
borders of the Taurus and Zagros Mountains, as well as in contributing around 61% of the all-day climatology of total
the upper parts of the headwater region where elevation is precipitation. The climatology of winter SWE in the head-
below 1700 m. water region is approximately 185 mm (Fig. 5f). Snow accu-
Figure 4 presents the deviation of variables from the cli- mulation (ΔSWE) is more pronounced in the Taurus and the
matology on AR days. However, changes occurring one day Zagros Mountains on AR days (Fig. 5e). The ET headwater
before and after the AR events are also associated with the region has a ΔSWE of 62 mm under winter AR conditions,
AR events, emphasizing the importance of accounting for contributing 33% to the all-day climatology of snow accu-
lead/lag time responses between AR events and hydrome- mulation. This aligns with the findings of Shulgina et al.
teorological variables. In this part of the study, we particu- (2023), who reported that ARs contribute to 40% of the total
larly focus on SWE changes to assess the variations in snow seasonal snow in California's snowy mountains, another
accumulation intensity on AR days using a one-day window. region with a semi-arid Mediterranean climate. The strong
Nevertheless, we also examine other surface variables asso- temperature and precipitation changes can result in distinct
ciated with SWE accumulation, such as temperature, total snowmelt patterns on AR days compared to the climatology
precipitation, and snowmelt. (Figs. 5g-h). The accumulation of total snowmelt (ΔSMLT)
Figures 5a and b indicate that the average temperature is is about 16 mm in the headwater region on AR days, while it
above 0 °C in the region, except over the high mountainous can exceed 40 mm in the lower part of the basin. In contrast,
region, on both AR days and climatology. The temperature the climatology of total snowmelt exceeds 100 mm in the
pattern shows a distinct warming pattern, which is consistent highland regions in Türkiye and Zagros Mountain ranges,
with the temperature deviation shown in Fig. 3b on AR days. with around 40 mm in the headwater region.
Total precipitation is mostly high along coastal regions, with Given that the ET Rivers are crucial water resources
greater amounts occurring in the high mountain ranges in supplying multiple transborder countries in the Middle
northern and southern Anatolia and the Zagros Mountains East, understanding hydrometeorological changes in the
on AR days. Total precipitation accumulation (ΔTP) within water tower area during winter is of utmost importance.
Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7101

Fig. 5  Intensity of surface air

temperature (SAT) changes,
accumulation of total pre-
cipitation (TP), snow water
equivalent SWE, and snowmelt
(SMLT) in the winter season for
AR days (a, c, e, g) and 40-year
climatology of these variables
(b, d, f, h). Accumulation of
ΔTP, ΔSWE, ΔT, and ΔSMLT
calculated summing values from
one day before to one day after
an AR event based on daily
values and only if Δ (T, TP,
SWE, and SMLT) > 0, variables
are averaged over the days for
each grid
7102 Y. Ezber et al.

In addition to the aforementioned hydrometeorological and precipitation phase must be considered alongside the
changes, surface radiative balance components may also energy balance (Haleakala et al. 2022).
experience alterations during AR events, potentially lead- The relationship between total precipitation and altitude
ing to increased snowpack ablation in snow-dominated on AR days is plotted using the 2 °C temperature thresh-
regions (Chen et al. 2019; Payne et al. 2020; Zhang et al. old as the transition temperature between rain and snow in
2023). The partition of net shortwave and net longwave Fig. 6c (Bonan 1996; Dingman 2002). Specifically, if the
radiation under AR and non-AR conditions in the head- temperature falls below the 2 °C threshold value, the total
water region is presented in Fig. 6a, indicating that mean precipitation is classified as snow. If the temperature is
net shortwave radiation and longwave radiation values are above 2 °C, the total precipitation is categorized as rainfall.
approximately 20 ­Wm−2 higher on non-AR days compared The clustering of total precipitation based on altitude in the
to AR days. Figure 6b indicates that downward shortwave headwater area shows that precipitation is in the form of
radiation is lower and downward longwave radiation is rain below approximately 1200 m and snow above 1200 m,
higher on AR days relative to non-AR days. This suggests according to the threshold value.
that rain-on-snow events, caused by warming or increased
downward longwave radiation due to cloudiness, contrib- 3.3.1 AR‑related interannual changes in hydrometeorology
ute to snowpack ablation. These radiative components of the headwater region
indicate that reflected shortwave radiation is high on non-
AR days, while upward longwave radiation is high on AR In the previous sections, we have presented the hydromete-
days, supporting snowpack increase on non-AR days and orological impacts of winter AR conditions in the eastern
snowmelt increase on AR days. Therefore, the radiative Mediterranean region, specifically focusing on the headwa-
balance components over the headwater region where 51% ter region of the ET Basin, from a climatological perspec-
(~ %93) of the region is above 1700 (1000) meters indi- tive. In this subsection, our objective is to examine how sur-
cate that the presence of clouds on AR days contributes face winter hydrometeorological variables vary from year to
to snowmelt accumulation due to both radiative and rain- year under AR conditions in the headwater region.
on-snow impacts, in agreement with Figs. 5a, e and g. It Temperatures generally remain below 0 °C on AR days in
is also important to note that SWE loss due to snowmelt winter (Fig. 7a). Nonetheless, they rise above 0 °C in certain
could lead to a misinterpretation of the impacts of the rain- years (i.e., 1982, 1984, 1989, 1991,1997, 1999, 2010, 2015,
on-snow events on the snowpack, as the available energy and 2018). On non-AR days, temperatures never exceed 0 °C
may not be adequate for such SWE loss. To fully under- (Fig. 7b).
stand the impacts of rainfall on snow, additional factors Under non-AR conditions, total precipitation generally
such as soil moisture, streamflow, snow cover structure, ranges from 40 to 100 mm, whereas under AR conditions,

Fig. 6  Net shortwave and longwave radiation for AR (AR-netSR scatter plot of total precipitation associated with altitude above and
and AR-netLR) and non-AR (nAR-netSR and nAR-netLR) days (a), below 2 °C temperature over the headwater region on AR days for
downward short and longwave radiation (b) for AR (AR-DwnSR and DJF (c)
AR-DwnLR) and non-AR (nAR-DwnSR and nAR-DwnLR) days, and
Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7103

upper range of precipitation approximately doubles, reaching Sea side of the Anatolian Peninsula (point B). The warm
around 200 mm (e.g., in years 1987, 1988, 2004, 2010, 2013, air advection in the lower atmosphere extends to the upper
and 2019) (Figs. 7c and d). The average winter SWE amount layers during the year 2010 (Fig. 8d). The warming effect is
on AR days (~ 58 mm) during the period of 1979–2019 is evident up to 700 hPa (Figs. 8c and d). In addition, the year
slightly lower than on non-AR days (average of ~ 62 mm) 2010 winter exhibits higher humidity in the air compared
(Figs. 7e and f). There is no specific year-to-year pattern to the climatology, and the higher positive vertical velocity
regarding SWE for either condition. However, the overall (upward motion is associated with negative velocity values
snow amount in the region has decreased over time. Shulg- in ERA5) indicates increased subsidence, which explains the
ina et al. (2023) noted that snow accumulation in California's temperature rise in 2010.
snowy mountains may decline to less than half of its histori- February 2010 was a month characterized by pro-
cal value by the late twenty-first century, with the greatest longed AR events. We focus on the day 21 Febru-
losses occurring at mid-altitudes. Thus, this characteristic ary 2010, when the IVT reached a pretty high value
may become even more important in the future due to una- (260 kg ­m−1 ­s−1 > 99%) compared to the monthly IVT val-
bated warming. Snowmelt is a bit more pronounced under ues for the 40-yr period. Figure 9a illustrates the 6-hourly
AR conditions compared to non-AR conditions (Figs. 7g and AR axes obtained from the AR catalog on 21 February
h). During the 1979–2019 winters, the average snowmelt is 2010, traversing northern Africa and bringing relatively
approximately 23 mm (18 mm) under AR (non-AR) condi- warm air masses to the Anatolian Peninsula. A deep
tions. Notably, a significant amount of snowmelt (~ 80 mm) upper-level trough over the Atlantic Ocean and a strong
occurred in 2010, a year with high precipitation (reaching ridge in northeastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula on
around 250 mm) and an average temperature exceeding 21 February create favorable conditions for a relatively
1.5 °C. In the following subsection, we present more details strong transport of dry-warm African air to the Euro-Med-
about the hydrometeorological conditions in 2010 winter. iterranean region (Fig. 9b). The temperature anomaly of
the day (Fig. 9c) supports the intrusion of warm air into
3.3.2 Influential AR days over the region in the winter the Euro-Mediterranean, reaching up to + 8–9 °C depend-
of 2010 ing on the area. In contrast to the eastern Mediterranean,
cold temperature anomalies (~ -4 °C) in western Europe
Here, we focus specifically on the winter of 2010 due to the indicate a dipole pattern, similar to the findings of Bozkurt
remarkable relationship between precipitation, temperature, et al. (2021) over a similar domain.
and snowmelt in the headwater region. Figure 8a provides A southwest-northeast-oriented AR brings wetter condi-
an overview of the 40-year winter climatology of the short- tions (ranging from + 2 mm ­day−1 to + 10 mm ­day−1) to the
wave and longwave radiation components compared to those western and central parts of Türkiye (Fig. 9d). However, the
in the year 2010. In 2010, the region received higher aver- decrease in SWE over these regions reveals that the increase
age solar radiation (~ 80 ­Wm−2) compared to the climatol- in precipitation mostly occurs in the form of rain. There-
ogy, while the emitted longwave radiation remains almost fore, the rain-on-snow effect appears to be dominant in these
the same (~ -40 ­Wm−2). Furthermore, the high downward regions (Fig. 9e). On the contrary, precipitation in the form
shortwave and longwave radiation in 2010 compared to the of snow over some highland regions of the eastern Black Sea
40-year climatology, respectively indicated a warmer and Mountains, Zagros Mountains, and headwater region helps
cloudier lower atmosphere in the headwater region (Fig. 8b). to increase snow accumulation (SWE ~ 2–4 cm ­day−1) since
This is consistent with the high precipitation (~ 260 mm the temperatures at those high altitudes are low enough to
­season−1) and snowmelt (~ 80 mm ­season−1) as well as the produce snowfall. Furthermore, snow depletion and drier
high temperature (+ 1.5 °C/season) and low SWE on AR conditions on AR days over the immediate highlands encir-
days in Fig. 7. The average temperature of the headwater cling the Fertile Crescent, an important agricultural region
region shown by the dashed box in Fig. 5 is lower than the for the Middle East, are notable.
threshold value (2 °C), however, it might rise over 2 °C
depending on the altitude, which triggers snowmelt in dif-
ferent parts of the headwater region. Consequently, the snow 4 Discussion and conclusions
cover decreased due to relatively high temperatures and rain-
on-snow effect in 2010. In this study, we examined the characterization of winter-
We conducted a transect analysis to look into the tem- time ARs and their impacts on the snowpack in eastern Ana-
perature and humidity fields along a line crossing eastern tolia, where the headwaters of the ET Basin are located,
Anatolia in the meridional direction, which reveals that the using a state-of-the-art AR catalog (Guan and Waliser 2019)
winter of 2010 is about 2 °C warmer than the climatology and ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the period 1979–2019. Our
in the southern plains over Mesopotamia and the Black
7104 Y. Ezber et al.
 Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7105

◂Fig. 7  Interannual changes of temperature, total precipitation, snow of flooding, due to the contribution of over 60% of the total
water equivalent, and snowmelt over the headwater region in the win- precipitation in the region.
ter season for AR-days (a, c, e and g) and non-AR days (b, d, f and h)
The discrepancy (high total precipitation contribution and
low snowpack contribution) suggests that ARs play a crucial
analysis reveals several important findings regarding the role in enhancing overall precipitation in the region. The
wintertime AR characteristics and impacts in the region. high total precipitation contribution can be attributed to the
We found that the frequency of the ARs during the win- semi-arid characteristics of the study area. Eastern Anato-
ter season in eastern Anatolia is 2–4 days, with higher lia is known for its arid to semi-arid climate (Turkes 1998,
frequency detected during the transition seasons. How- 2003), characterized by limited rainfall and moisture avail-
ever, the ARs in the headwater regions are relatively weak. ability. However, when winter ARs interact with the region,
Synoptic weather patterns associated with winter ARs are they bring a significant amount of moisture and trigger pre-
generally similar to those depicted in the melting sea- cipitation enhancement. Additionally, the complex terrain
son (Bozkurt et al. 2021), with a stronger Mediterranean of the region, including the presence of mountains, plays a
trough and an anticyclone over the Caspian Sea. In addi- role in triggering orographic lifting (Turkes et al. 2009; Onol
tion, the location of the African subtropical jet shifts from and Unal 2012). As the moisture-laden air encounters the
the west (during the snowmelt season) to the east of Africa mountain ranges, it is forced to rise, leading to orographic
on winter AR days. precipitation. This process further enhances the total precipi-
Temperature and precipitation anomalies indicate that AR tation during AR events. The combination of the semi-arid
days in the headwater region can be warmer by up to 3 °C climate, the presence of a low-level jet, and orographic lift-
and wetter by over 5 mm ­day−1 compared to climatology. ing provide favorable conditions for precipitation enhance-
The contribution of ARs to the seasonal total precipitation ment during AR events in eastern Anatolia. While the snow
varies from year to year, with the maximum contribution contribution may be relatively low, the overall total precipi-
(over 80%) in 2010 and the minimum contribution (around tation contribution from ARs highlights their importance in
40%) in 2009. On average, ARs account for around 60% of replenishing water resources. The high precipitation and low
the seasonal total precipitation in the basin, with an average snowpack contribution during AR events in the region can
total precipitation accumulation of around 8 mm ­day−1 on be attributed to rain-on-snow events, where rain falling on
AR days. Snow contributions on AR days exhibit spatial existing snow rapidly melts the snowpack and contributes
variability, with an increase in SWE up to 3 mm ­day−1 in to increased runoff (Bozkurt et al. 2021).
the upper headwater region and a decrease in the remain- Notably, the south-facing parts of the mountain range
ing parts of the basin. The average snow accumulation on experience significant snowmelt, with the minimum and
AR days is approximately 4 mm ­day−1 over the headwater maximum snowmelt contributions occurring in 2014 (15%)
basin, and ARs contribute to 27% of the seasonal average and 2010 (80%), respectively. Approximately 30 W ­ m−2 less
snow accumulation. The contribution of ARs to the snow- downward shortwave radiation and 40 ­Wm−2 greater down-
pack ranges from 12% in 1989 to 57% in 2010 for the region. ward longwave radiation on AR days compared to non-AR
It has been shown that AR events play an important role in days point to the presence of cloudy skies on AR days and
snow accumulation and contribute to between 43 and 51% snow on non-AR days in the region. We highlight that rain
of total snow accumulation in the extratropical Andes of on AR days generally tends to form over the regions where
South America (Saavedra et al. 2020; Viale et al. 2018). In the altitude is below 1200 m for the headwater region.
addition, Huning et al. (2017, 2019) estimated 52–62% and The interannual variability of hydrometeorological vari-
Guan et al. (2010, 2013) found a 30–40% AR contribution ables highlighted the exceptional nature of the year 2010.
to snow in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA. Shulgina Despite only + 1.5 °C temperature deviation from the sea-
et al. (2023) concluded that due to their warmth character- sonal average, total precipitation in 2010 accounted for
istics, AR storms produce higher snowlines, contributing 57% of the seasonal total and 80% of the snowmelt. These
40% of total seasonal snow than non-AR storms in Califor- changes underscore the significant impact of the rain-on-
nia's snowy mountains. Comparing our results to previous snow process associated with ARs in shaping the climate
studies, the snow contribution from ARs in the Anatolian conditions of that year. A particularly extreme AR event
highlands (27%) is reasonable, considering that the region's observed in February further highlighted the rain-on-snow
elevation is not as high as the Andes or the Sierra Nevada, effect, leading to snow depletion, although the snow contri-
and the intensity of IVT carried by ARs this far inland is bution remained influential in a small area within the upper
not as strong as that associated with those originating from part of the headwater region of the ET Basin.
the Pacific Ocean. Although ARs are not effective for snow In light of our findings, several recommendations can
accumulation in the Anatolian plateau, rain-on-snow events be made. Firstly, continued monitoring and research on
have more potential to occur, which can increase the risk ARs in the region are necessary to better understand their
7106 Y. Ezber et al.

Fig. 8  Net shortwave and longwave radiations (a) and downward ture (shaded), vertical velocity (blue contours), and specific humid-
shortwave and long wave radiation (b) on winter AR days for 40-year ity (green contours) anomalies along a north–south transect for (c)
climatology and the year 2010. Vertical profile of potential tempera- 40-year (1979–2019) climatology, and (d) the year 2010

spatiotemporal characteristics and their impact on snow- hydroclimate changes in Mediterranean climate regions
pack dynamics. This would involve further analysis of (e.g., Polade et al. 2017; Bozkurt and Sen 2013) and the
AR intensity, duration, and moisture transport patterns, role of ARs in the changing hydroclimate (e.g., Gershunov
as well as their interactions with local topography, includ- et al. 2019) as well as on projected snowline and snow
ing numerical modeling efforts. Secondly, considering the accumulation (e.g., Shulgina et al. 2023). In this context,
potential implications of AR-induced snowmelt, it is cru- it is also important to improve the representation of ARs
cial to assess the water resource management strategies and their associated rain-on-snow effect in climate models.
in the ET Basin. The findings of this study highlight the This will enable more accurate predictions of snow accu-
importance of accounting for the contribution of ARs to mulation, snowmelt, and water availability in the region,
the overall water availability and planning for potential especially considering the potential implications for agri-
changes in snowpack dynamics. Further research is also culture, hydroelectric power generation, and overall water
warranted to improve our understanding of the projected resource management.
Impact of atmospheric rivers on the winter snowpack in the headwaters of Euphrates‑Tigris basin 7107

Fig. 9  a AR axes for every 6 h, and anomalies of b) IVT (shaded) and 500 hPa (contours), c 2-m temperature, d precipitation, and e) SWE on
February 21 2010

Despite the insights provided by this study, there are Another limitation pertains to the reliability of the rea-
some caveats to consider. The region of interest includes nalysis data. The AR catalog has not been updated for the
important limitations associated with the coverage of new high-resolution reanalysis dataset (ERA5). Addition-
observed data (e.g., limited spatial density of stations, ally, the precipitation and snow information obtained from
short record lengths, lack of observations at higher eleva- ERA5 lacks sufficient resolution to adequately assess the
tions, etc.), which are subject to inherent uncertainties. rugged topographic barrier regions. Future research could
7108 Y. Ezber et al.

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