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ROBERT STINE DEAN FOSTER
Third Edition
Third Edition
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449716-7
ISBN-10: 0-13-449716-3
9 0 0 0 0
STINE
9 780134 497167
FOSTER
CONTENTS vii
17 Comparison 420
17.1 Types of Comparisons 421
17.2 Data for Comparisons 421
17.3 Two-Sample z-Test for Proportions 424
17.4 Two-Sample Confidence Interval for Proportions 425
17.5 two-Sample t-Test 429
17.6 Confidence Interval for the Difference Between Means 433
17.7 Paired Comparisons 436
Chapter Summary 446
Knowledge of statistics is a great asset in business, but another way to get ahead of the competition, the key is
getting the most value from this asset requires knowing a desire to learn how statistics can produce better de-
how to ask and answer the right questions. Choosing the cisions and insights from the growing amount of data
right question and solving the problem correctly require generated in modern businesses.
an appreciation of business as well as the subtleties of We don’t assume that readers have mastered the do-
statistics. Unless you understand the business issue from mains of a business education, such as economics, fi-
a finance, marketing, management, or accounting per- nance, marketing, or accounting. We do assume, though,
spective, you won’t see how statistics can help solve the that you care how ideas from these areas can improve a
problem. Performing the statistical analysis must wait business. If you’re interested in these applications—and
until you have grasped the issue facing the business. we think you will be—then our examples provide the
background you will need to appreciate why we want
to solve the challenges that we present in each chapter.
Solving Business Problems
Readers with more experience will discover that we’ve
This application-directed approach is key to business simplified the technical details of some applications, such
analytics and shapes our examples. We open each chap- as those in finance or marketing. Even so, we think that
ter with a business question that motivates the contents the examples offer those with substantive experience a
of the chapter. For extra practice, worked-out examples new perspective on familiar problems. We hope that you
within each chapter follow our 4M (Motivation, Method, will agree that the examples are realistic and get to the
Mechanics, Message) problem-solving strategy. The mo- heart of quantitative applications of statistics in business.
tivation sets up the problem and explains the relevance
of the question at hand. We then identify the appropri-
Technology
ate statistical method and work through the mechanics
of its calculation. Finally, the message answers the ques- You cannot do research in modern applied statistics
tion in language suitable for a business presentation or without computing. Data sets have grown in size and
report. Through the 4Ms, we’ll show you how a business complexity, making it impossible to work out the cal-
context guides the statistical procedure and how the re- culations by hand. Rather than dwell on routine cal-
sults determine a course of action. Motivation and Mes- culations, we rely on software (often referred to as a
sage are critical. The Motivation answers the question statistics package) to compute the results. Although we
“Why am I doing this analysis?”. If you cannot answer emphasize the use of technology, we give the formulas
that question, it’s hard to get the statistics correct. The and illustrate the calculations introduced in each chap-
Message has to express your answer in language that ter so that you will always know what the software is
is used in the business world. Understand the business doing. It is essential to appreciate what happens in the
first, then use statistics to help formulate your conclu- calculations: You need to understand how the calcu-
sion. Notice that we said “help.” A statistical analysis by lations are done in order to recognize when they are
itself is not the final answer. You must frame that analy- appropriate and when they fail. That does not mean,
sis in terms that others in the business will understand however, that you need to spend hours doing routine
and find persuasive. calculations. Your time is precious, and there’s only so
Our emphasis on the substantive use of statistics in much of it to go around. We think it makes good eco-
business shapes our view that the ideal reader for this nomic sense to take advantage of modern technology
text is someone with an interest in learning how statis- in order to give us more time to think harder and more
tical thinking improves the ability of a manager to run thoroughly about the motivating context for an applica-
or contribute to a business. Whether you’re an under- tion and to successfully present the business message.
graduate with an interest in business, an MBA looking When we present results obtained with a calcula-
to improve your skills, or a business owner looking for tor or computer, we typically round them. You don’t
xi
need to know that the profits from a projected sale examples, and illustrations that stress the impor-
are $123,234.32529. It’s usually better to round such a tance of these connections. For example, previous
number to $123 thousand. To let you know when we’ve editions introduced the 4M paradigm—motivation,
rounded a calculation, we say about or approximately. method, mechanics, and message—that shows how
In expressions, we denote rounding with the symbol < , to combine data and statistics to solve problems in
as in 1/6 < 0.167. business. This edition carries this metaphor further.
To help you learn how to use software, each chapter By explicitly linking this paradigm to analytics, this
includes hints on using Excel®, MinitabExpress®, and edition shows that business analytics requires blend-
JMP® for calculations. These hints won’t replace the help ing substantive relevance with statistical analysis.
provided by your software, but they will point you in the ■■ Up-to-date applications explore problems related to
right direction so that you don’t spin your wheels figur- “big data” and introduce hot topics such as A/B test-
ing out how to get started with an analysis. Supplemental ing that are popular in today’s businesses. Although the
software study cards are available for specific packages. methods behind these new topics are familiar within
statistics, the names are new. This edition makes sure
Data students know the new names so that they can link what
they learn in the classroom to what they read online.
Statistical analysis uses data, and we’ve provided lots ■■ This edition features more than 90 new and updated
of data to give you the opportunity to have some real data sets. The changed data range from examples
hands-on experience. As you read through the chap- used within chapters to those underlying exercises.
ters, you’ll discover a variety of data sets that include Important, highly visible changes include “through
real estate markets, stocks and bonds, technology, retail the cycle” finance and economic time series that
sales, human resource management, and fundamental span the 2008 recession.
economics. These data come from a range of sources, ■■ More than 100 enhanced exercises remove ambi-
and each chapter includes a discussion about where we guities and capture nuances in revised data. Many of
found the data used in examples. We hope you’ll use our these changes address issues identified by tracking
suggestions and find more. online student performance in completing related
exercises in MyStatLab. Problems that were worded
Prerequisite Knowledge in a way that might confuse students were clarified.
To appreciate the illustrative calculations and formulas,
■■ Excel is the workhorse tool of many businesses. This
readers will need to be familiar with basic algebra. Por- edition adds a section to every chapter that shows
tions of chapters that introduce a statistical method of- step by step how to complete analytic exercises with
ten include some algebra to show where a formula comes the latest version of Excel. Excel is the most popular
from. Usually, we only use basic algebra (up through top- software for introductory statistics, but some prefer
ics such as exponents and square roots). Several chapters the features offered by statistics packages such as
make extensive use of the logarithm function. If you’re Minitab or JMP. We’ve retained and updated hints in
interested in business and economics, this is a function each chapter for these as well.
worth getting to know a lot better. The applications we’ve
■■ It’s the little things. Hundreds of changes have been
provided, such as modeling sales or finding the best made throughout this edition to emphasize and clar-
price, show why the logarithm is so important. Occasion- ify key points. For example, this edition highlights
ally, we give credit to calculus for solving a problem, but additional tips throughout the text that help readers
we don’t present derivations using calculus. You’ll do fine recognize important points that might be overlooked.
if you are willing to accept that calculus is a branch of Clarified explanations, analogies, and examples in
more advanced mathematics that provides, among other every chapter encourage students to delve deeper
things, the ability to derive formulas that have special and learn for themselves.
properties. If you do know calculus, you’ll be able to see
where these expressions come from.
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION
We have organized the chapters of this book into four
WHAT’S NEW IN THIS EDITION parts:
This edition adds more of what readers have found re- 1. Variation
ally useful: 2. Probability
3. Inference
■■ Business analytics relies on linking data to business
4. Regression Models
decisions. Businesses ranging from traditional banks
to the latest game developers are clamoring for em- Part I. These chapters introduce summary statistics
ployees who can connect data and models to substan- such as the mean and important graphical summaries,
tive business problems. This edition adds emphasis, including bar charts, histograms, and scatterplots. Even
methods that provide answers to the question posed in Software Hints. Each chapter includes hints on using
the opening example. Excel, Minitab, and JMP for calculations. These hints
give students a jumping off point for getting started
The 4M (Motivation,
4M Analytics Examples doing statistical analysis with software. Supplemental
Method, Mechanics, study cards for these and other software packages are
Message) problem-solving strategy gives students a clear available from the publisher.
outline for solving any business problem. Each 4M ex-
ample first expresses a business question in context, Behind the Math. At the end of most chapters, a Be-
then guides students to determine the best statistical hind the Math section provides interesting technical
method for working the problem using statistical soft- details that explain important results, such as the jus-
ware, and, finally, frames the analysis in terms that oth- tification or interpretation for an underlying formula.
ers in the business world will understand. If you are so inclined, they will help you appreciate the
subtleties and logic behind the mechanics, but they are
Short question sets not necessary for using statistics.
What Do You Think? throughout each chapter
give students the opportunity to check their under- Chapter Summary. These chapter-ending summaries
standing of what they’ve just read. These questions are provide a complete review of the content.
intended to be a quick check of key concepts and ideas
presented in the chapter; most questions involve very ■■ Key Terms We provide an index of the chapter’s key
little calculation. Answers are located in a footnote so terms at the end of each chapter to give students a
that students can easily check their answers before quick and easy way to return to important definitions
moving on in the text. in the text.
■■ Objectives This new feature provides a list of what
Tips. We highlight useful hints for applying sta- students should understand after having read a
tip tistical methods within the exposition so that chapter.
students don’t miss them. ■■ Formulas Important formulas introduced within the
chapter are restated.
Caution. You’ll see the caution icon next
■■ About the Data This feature provides sources for the
caution data used throughout the chapter with further back-
to material that might be confusing. You
should be extra careful to make sure you understand ground.
the material being discussed.
Exercises. Each chapter contains a variety of exercises
✓ Checklist. Some statistics presume that the informa- at escalating levels of difficulty in order to give students
tion presented satisfies several conditions or assump- a full complement of practice in problem solving using
tions. For example, certain statistics only detect pat- the skills they’ve learned in the chapter. Types of ex-
terns that resemble lines. You would not want to use ercises include Matching, True/False, Think About It,
these if you were looking for a curve. To help you keep You Do It, and 4M Exercises. You’ll find the data for the
track of the assumptions, the conditions are collected 4M and You Do It exercises on Pearson’s Math and Sta-
in a checklist. tistics Resources Website: http://www.pearsonhighered
.com/mathstats
Best Practices. At the end of each chapter, we include ■■ Matching and True/False exercises test students’ abil-
a collection of tips for applying the chapter’s concepts ity to recognize the basic mathematical symbols and
successfully and ethically. terminology they have learned in the chapter. We
avoid unnecessary formulas, but certain symbols
Pitfalls. Most of the unintentional mistakes people make and terminology show up so often that students are
when learning statistics are avoidable and usually come well served to recognize them.
from using the wrong method for the situation or misinter- ■■ Think About It exercises ask students to pull together
preting the results. This feature at the end of each chapter the chapter’s concepts in order to solve conceptual
provides useful tips for avoiding common mistakes. problems. You don’t need a computer or calculator
Data Analytics: The authors analyzed aggregated student for most of these.
usage and performance data from MyStatLab™ for the ■■ You Do It exercises give students practice solv-
previous edition of this text. The results of this analysis ing problems that reinforce the mechanics they’ve
helped improve the quality and quantity of exercises that learned in the chapter. These exercises apply the
matter the most to instructors and students. methods of the chapter to data related to a business
application. Working through the steps of these ex- ■■ 4M Analytics exercises are rich, challenging applica-
ercises helps you practice the mechanics. We expect tions rooted in real business situations. These ask
you to use a statistics software package for many of students to apply the statistical knowledge they’ve
these. developed in the chapter to a set of questions about a
particular business problem.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We didn’t develop our approach to business statistics Joan Donohue, University of South Carolina
in isolation. Our colleagues at Wharton have helped Steve Erikson, Babson College
shape our approach to teaching statistics in business.
Nancy Freeman, Shelton State Community College
Many of the ideas and examples that you’ll find here
arose from suggestions made by colleagues, including Daniel Friesen, Midwestern State University
Andreas Buja, Sasha Rakhlin, Paul Shaman, Richard Deborah J. Gougeon, University of Scranton
Waterman, and Adi Wyner. Over the years, members of Christian Grandzol, Bloomsburg University
our department have come to share a common attitude
Betsy Greenberg, University of Texas—Austin
toward the use of statistics in business, and this text re-
flects that shared perspective. Most of the examples and Ken Griffin, University of Central Arkansas
many exercises from the text have been tried in other John Grout, Berry College
classes and improved using that feedback. We owe Warren Gulko, University Of North
these friends a debt of gratitude for their willingness to Carolina, Wilmington
talk about the fundamental use of statistics in business
Marie Halvorsen-Ganepola, Notre Dame University
and to explore alternative explanations and examples.
Many thanks to the following reviewers for their Clifford B. Hawley, West Virginia University
comments and suggestions during the revision of this Bob Hopfe, California State University—Sacramento
text. Max Houck, West Virginia University
David Hudgins, University of Oklahoma
Kunle Adamson, DeVry University
Jeffrey Jarrett, University of Rhode Island
Elaine Allen, Babson College
Chun Jin, Central Connecticut State University
Randy Anderson, California State University—Fresno
Christopher K. Johnson, Ph.D. University of
Djeto Assane, University of Nevada, Las Vegas North Florida
Rajesh K. Barnwal, Middle Tennessee State University Morgan Jones, University of North Carolina
Dipankar Basu, Miami University Ronald K. Klimberg, Saint Joseph’s University
Mark Bloxom, Alfred State College SUNY College of David Kopcso, Babson College
Technology
Supriya Lahiri, University of Massachusetts, Lowell
Hannah Bolte, Indiana University Bloomington
Mark T. Leung, University of Texas—San Antonio
David Booth, Kent State University, Main Campus
Tony Lin, Ph.D., University of Southern California
John E. Boyer, Jr., Kansas State University
John McKenzie, Babson College
Michael Braun, Southern Methodist University
Kay McKinzie, University of Central Arkansas
Daniel G. Brick, University of St. Thomas
Mark R. Marino, Niagara University
Nancy Burnett, University of Wisconsin—Oshkosh
Dennis Mathaisel, Babson College
Richard Cleary, Bentley College
Sherryl May, University of Pittsburgh
Ismael Dambolena, Babson College
Bruce McCullough, Drexel University
Anne Davey, Northeastern State University
Richard McGowan, Boston College
Dr. Michael Deis, Clayton University
Constance McLaren, Indiana State University
Frederick W. Derrick, Loyola University Maryland
Robert Meeks, Pima Community College
Neil Desnoyers, Drexel University
Jeffrey Michael, Towson University
Instructor Resources
Instructor’s Edition Technology Resources
This version of the text contains short answers to all
of the exercises within the exercise sets. (ISBN-10:
Data Sets
Data sets formatted for Minitab, Excel, JMP, and text
0-13-449738-4; ISBN-13: 978-0-13-449738-9)
files can be downloaded from MyStatLab or www
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, .pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources/.
Instructor’s Solutions Manual, by Zhiwei Zhu, Uni-
versity of Louisiana, Lafayette Business Insight Videos
This manual provides detailed, worked-out solu- This series of ten 5- to 7- minute videos, each about
tions to all of the book’s exercises. The Instruc- a well-known business and the challenges it faces,
tor’s Solutions Manual is available for download in focuses on statistical concepts as they pertain to
MyStatLab and from Pearson Education’s online the r eal world. The videos can be downloaded from
catalog (http://www.pearsonhighered.com/irc). within MyStatLab. Contact your Pearson represen-
tative for details.
Business Insight Video
Assessment Questions MyStatLab™ Online Course
Written to accompany the Business Insight Videos, (access code required)
these video-specific questions and answers can MyStatLab from Pearson is the world’s leading on-
be used for assessment or classroom discussion. line resource for teaching and learning statistics;
These are available for download from MyStatLab integrating interactive homework, assessment, and
or at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc. media in a flexible, easy-to-use format. MyStatLab is
www.mystatlab.com
www.mystatlab.com
www.mystatlab.com
www.mystatlab.com
Author: K. A. Järvi
Language: Finnish
Kirj.
K. A. Järvi
Sanomalehti-poika
Lulle
Saiturin alku
Lokki
Pääkaupunkiin
Kuvaus ylimaasta
Kaunosielu
SANOMALEHTI-POIKA
Ja ilomielin lähtivät pojat pois. Tapanin isä, joka oli kirvesmies, tuli
aina vasta illalla kotiinsa päivän työstä. Silloin hän oli väsynyt ja
tavallisesti alakuloinen. Tuskinpa monta sanaa puhui, vaan syötyään
heikon illallisen, johon äiti silti aina koetti hommata jotain lämmintä,
jos ei muuta niin haudikasperunoita, tuijotti äänetönnä hetken
lapsiinsa ja paneutui sitte levolle. Ja selvästi näkyi, että hän oli sekä
ruumiillisesti että henkisesti väsynyt.
Tänä iltana ilmoitettiin kohta isälle, että Tapani on päässyt
"Sanomain" kantajaksi. Hän naurahti sen kuultuaan ja hänen
kasvoilleen ilmestyi valoisampi ilme.
*****
— Hyvä Jumala! Mitä tämä nyt on? Minun pitää lähteä itse
kuulustamaan asiaa, sanoi äiti.
Marraskuussa 1899.
Lulle
Oli niin kuuma päivä, jotta luuli vedessä ulkona selällä kalojen
itsestään paistuvan. Ja sitte tyven kuin olisi miedoinkin tuulen
henkäys eksynyt pois rannikkokaupungin paahtavilta katuloilta. Ilma
näytti palavan, sillä sellainen hiostava, lämpöinen utukerros,
auringon sauhu, leijaili maan päällä lukemattomien itikoiden siinä
kukkurallaan uidessa. Ulkona puiden katveessakin tuntui olo
ihmisestä samanlaiselta kuin kuumassa suljetussa konehuoneessa,
jossa saa läpimärkänä uida omassa hiessään. Ja tuo merikin, joka
pienoisenkin virin käydessä oli niin raitishenkinen ja huokui viileyttä,
oli nyt kuin höyryävä muuripata täynnä lämpöistä vettä.
— Niin minä nyt teen. Tällä kerralla nyt menköön kukkaro puhki!
— Nuo koirat tuolla, jotka saavat loikoa kieli ulkona suusta, ovat
meikäläistä onnellisemmat! puhkui Lulle.
Mutta samassa hän muisti, mitä varten hän täällä oli ja hän
tyyntyi. Riisui takkinsa ja venähti varjoon pitkälleen sohvalle
odottamaan päivällistä. Siinä oli hyvä olla. Hän potkasi kengät
jaloistaan, paneutui koko pituudeltaan selälleen sohvalle ja huokui
siinä.
— Vai sinä Lasse! Onpa sinulla ääni vähän kähennyt vai liekö se
telefoonin vaikutusta. Terve mieheen, mutta en minä voisi tulla kuin
noin parin tunnin takaa.
— On.
— On.
Saiturin alku.