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    BT Chương 6

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    BT Chương 6

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    BT CHƯƠNG 6

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    of 3

    Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

    TABLE P-13 Southdown Revenues, 1986–1999

    Quarter

    Year 1 2 3 4

    1986 77.4 88.8 92.1 79.8


    1987 77.5 89.1 92.4 80.1
    1988 74.7 185.2 162.4 178.1
    1989 129.1 158.4 160.6 138.7
    1990 127.2 149.8 151.7 132.9
    1991 103.0 136.8 141.3 123.5
    1992 107.3 136.1 138.6 123.7
    1993 106.1 144.4 156.1 138.2
    1994 111.8 149.8 158.5 141.8
    1995 119.1 158.0 170.4 151.8
    1996 127.4 178.2 189.3 169.5
    1997 151.4 187.2 199.2 181.4
    1998 224.9 317.7 341.4 300.7
    1999 244.9 333.4 370.0 326.7

    Source: The Value Line Investment Survey (New York: Value Line,
    1990, 1993, 1996, 1999).

    13. Southdown, Inc., the nation’s third largest cement producer, is pushing ahead
    with a waste fuel burning program. The cost for Southdown will total about
    $37 million. For this reason, it is extremely important for the company to have an
    accurate forecast of revenues for the first quarter of 2000. The data are presented
    in Table P-13.
    a. Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .4 and an initial value
    of 77.4 to forecast the quarterly revenues for the first quarter of 2000.
    b. Now use a smoothing constant of .6 and an initial value of 77.4 to forecast the
    quarterly revenues for the first quarter of 2000.
    c. Which smoothing constant provides the better forecast?
    d. Refer to part c. Examine the residual autocorrelations. Are you happy with sim-
    ple exponential smoothing for this example? Explain.
    14. The Triton Energy Corporation explores for and produces oil and gas. Company
    president Gail Freeman wants to have her company’s analyst forecast the com-
    pany’s sales per share for 2000. This will be an important forecast, since Triton’s
    restructuring plans have hit a snag. The data are presented in Table P-14.
    Determine the best forecasting method and forecast sales per share for 2000.
    15. The Consolidated Edison Company sells electricity (82% of revenues), gas (13%),
    and steam (5%) in New York City and Westchester County. Bart Thomas, company
    forecaster, is assigned the task of forecasting the company’s quarterly revenues for
    the rest of 2002 and all of 2003. He collects the data shown in Table P-15.
    Determine the best forecasting technique and forecast quarterly revenue for
    the rest of 2002 and all of 2003.
    16. A job-shop manufacturer that specializes in replacement parts has no forecasting
    system in place and manufactures products based on last month’s sales. Twenty-
    four months of sales data are available and are given in Table P-16.

    95
    Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

    TABLE P-14 Triton Sales per Share, 1974–1999

    Year Sales per Share Year Sales per Share

    1974 .93 1987 5.33


    1975 1.35 1988 8.12
    1976 1.48 1989 10.65
    1977 2.36 1990 12.06
    1978 2.45 1991 11.63
    1979 2.52 1992 6.58
    1980 2.81 1993 2.96
    1981 3.82 1994 1.58
    1982 5.54 1995 2.99
    1983 7.16 1996 3.69
    1984 1.93 1997 3.98
    1985 5.17 1998 4.39
    1986 7.72 1999 6.85

    Source: The Value Line Investment Survey (New York: Value Line,
    1990, 1993, 1996, 1999)

    TABLE P-15 Quarterly Revenues for Consolidated Edison


    ($ millions), 1985–June 2002

    Year Mar. 31 Jun. 30 Sept. 30 Dec. 31

    1985 1,441 1,209 1,526 1,321


    1986 1,414 1,187 1,411 1,185
    1987 1,284 1,125 1,493 1,192
    1988 1,327 1,102 1,469 1,213
    1989 1,387 1,218 1,575 1,371
    1990 1,494 1,263 1,613 1,369
    1991 1,479 1,330 1,720 1,344
    1992 1,456 1,280 1,717 1,480
    1993 1,586 1,396 1,800 1,483
    1994 1,697 1,392 1,822 1,461
    1995 1,669 1,460 1,880 1,528
    1996 1,867 1,540 1,920 1,632
    1997 1,886 1,504 2,011 1,720
    1998 1,853 1,561 2,062 1,617
    1999 1,777 1,479 2,346 1,889
    2000 2,318 2,042 2,821 2,250
    2001 2,886 2,112 2,693 1,943
    2002 2,099 1,900 — —

    Source: The Value Line Investment Survey (New York: Value Line, 1990, 1993,
    1996, 1999, 2001).

    a. Plot the sales data as a time series. Are the data seasonal?
    Hint: For monthly data, the seasonal period is s = 12. Is there a pattern (e.g.,
    summer sales relatively low, fall sales relatively high) that tends to repeat
    itself every 12 months?

    96
    Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods

    TABLE P-16

    Month Sales Month Sales

    January 2005 430 January 2006 442


    February 420 February 449
    March 436 March 458
    April 452 April 472
    May 477 May 463
    June 420 June 431
    July 398 July 400
    August 501 August 487
    September 514 September 503
    October 532 October 503
    November 512 November 548
    December 410 December 432

    b. Use a naive model to generate monthly sales forecasts (e.g., the February
    2005 forecast is given by the January 2005 value, and so forth). Compute the
    MAPE.
    c. Use simple exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .5 and an initial
    smoothed value of 430 to generate sales forecasts for each month. Compute the
    MAPE.
    d. Do you think either of the models in parts b and c is likely to generate accurate
    forecasts for future monthly sales? Explain.
    e. Use Minitab and Winters’ multiplicative smoothing method with smoothing con-
    stants a = b = g = .5 to generate a forecast for January 2007. Save the residuals.
    f. Refer to part e. Compare the MAPE for Winters’ method from the computer
    printout with the MAPEs in parts b and c. Which of the three forecasting proce-
    dures do you prefer?
    g. Refer to part e. Compute the autocorrelations (for six lags) for the residuals
    from Winters’ multiplicative procedure. Do the residual autocorrelations sug-
    gest that Winters’ procedure works well for these data? Explain.
    17. Consider the gasoline purchases for the Spokane Transit Authority given in Table
    2. In Example 3, a five-week moving average is used to smooth the data and gener-
    ate forecasts.
    a. Use Minitab to smooth the Spokane Transit Authority data using a four-week
    moving average. Which moving average length, four weeks or five weeks,
    appears to represent the data better? Explain.
    b. Use Minitab to smooth the Spokane Transit Authority data using simple expo-
    nential smoothing. Compare your results with those in part a. Which procedure,
    four-week moving average or simple exponential smoothing, do you prefer for
    these data? Explain.
    18. Table P-18 contains the number of severe earthquakes (those with a Richter scale
    magnitude of 7 and above) per year for the years 1900–1999.
    a. Use Minitab to smooth the earthquake data with moving averages of orders
    k = 5, 10, and 15. Describe the nature of the smoothing as the order of the mov-
    ing average increases. Do you think there might be a cycle in these data? If so,
    provide an estimate of the length (in years) of the cycle.

    97

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