VasuGoyal BF Assignment

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Reflective Report on Financial Models and Market Efficiency

This report states that financial models, specifically the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Efficient
Market Hypothesis (EMH), have evolved over time, with both strengths and limitations. In the early days of
finance, many studies supported the notion that markets were efficient, meaning that prices fully reflected all
available information. However, anomalies like the post-earnings-announcement drift posed challenges to this
idea, suggesting that stock prices could behave unpredictably. As researchers delved further, they found
inconsistencies in other areas, such as fixed income and currency markets, where factors like interest rates
seemed to predict returns—contradicting the efficient market theory.

A clear distinction between short-term and long-term price movements emerged, highlighted by Robert
Shiller’s work, which demonstrated that stock prices often fluctuated more than underlying dividends could
justify. This finding led to discussions about how risk premiums can vary over time and how investor behavior
influences market dynamics. Some economists argued that emotions could shape investment choices, causing
more cautious behavior during downturns and excessive optimism during market booms.

Additionally, return anomalies such as the value premium and momentum effect showed that not all stocks
behaved as CAPM predicted. While CAPM centers on systematic risk (represented by beta), researchers
discovered that factors like size and value also played essential roles in stock performance. Momentum—a
pattern where stocks that have been rising continue to do so—remains difficult to explain through rational
models alone, indicating that investor psychology may be influential.

In finance, ongoing debates about market efficiency, investor psychology, and the development of new models
continue to shape our understanding of markets. Economists increasingly recognize a blend of rational
decision-making and behavioral influences, aiming to create models that better capture real market phenomena.
Although CAPM is still widely used, its limitations spur the development of alternative models. The journey to
refine financial understanding is ongoing, as researchers work to create frameworks that capture the
complexities of market behavior while remaining applicable to real-world scenarios.

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