Weller 2023 The World Risk Index 2023

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WorldRiskReport 2023
Focus: Diversity
Imprint
Publisher WorldRiskReport 2023 Authors
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Dr. Ilona Auer Frege, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Vanessa Bliecke, IFHV
Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) Dr. Sarah Bradshaw, Middlesex University London
Prof. Dr. Dennis Dijkzeul, IFHV
Concept and implementation Dr. Carolin Funke, IFHV
Dr. Ilona Auer Frege, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Project lead Philipp Kienzl, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
Dr. Katrin Radtke, IFHV, Scientific lead Katharina Küsters, Plan International
Philipp Kienzl, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Editor-in-chief Laura Masuch, CBM
Daniel Weller, IFHV, Senior Data Scientist Dr. Mahbuba Nasreen, Bangladesh Open University
Sören Schneider, IFHV, Research associate Dr. Katrin Radtke, IFHV
Sören Schneider, IFHV
Noémie Hamilius, MediaCompany, Editing Prof. Dr. Pierre Thielbörger, IFHV
Naldo Gruden, MediaCompany, Graphic design Daniel Weller, IFHV
Oliver Wiegers, CBM
Translation Dilara Karmen Yaman, IFHV
Karin Zennig, medico
Mandy Williams-Wendl, nativaComm
Lisa Cohen, IFHV
Citation note
Sandra Kirsch, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV (2023): WeltRisikoBericht
In collaboration with 2023. Berlin: Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft.
Ami Carstensen, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft

Sandra Kirsch, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
Katja Schieritz, Plan International
ISBN 978-3-946785-16-3
The WorldRiskReport has been published annually since 2011 by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft.
Responsible: Dr. Ilona Auer Frege
2 WorldRiskReport 2023
3 WorldRiskIndex 2023
In many parts of the world, extreme natural events such as earthquakes, storms,
Daniel Weller floods, or droughts are part of life for millions of people. Mid- and long-term effects
Research Associate,
of climate change will not only amplify the frequency and intensity of these phenom-
IFHV, Ruhr University Bochum
ena but also drastically increase the number of people affected by them. However,
the extent to which extreme events trigger disasters depends not only on natural pro-
cesses alone but also on societal capacities and resources. Accordingly, disaster risks
are particularly high where extreme natural events affect vulnerable societies. In line
with this perspective, the WorldRiskIndex provides an assessment of latent disaster
risks for 193 countries worldwide. The analysis shows that the trends of recent years
are persisting: While the Americas top the continental ranking in terms of risk and
exposure, the global hotspot of vulnerability is Africa – almost 80 percent of the con-
tinent faces high or very high risk.
In the media discourse, the image of human- be evacuated due to Cyclone Mocha. In Myan-
itarian crises was again shaped by the war mar, where the storm subsequently hit, one
in Ukraine and the conflict in Sudan. Their third of the population had already been depen-
courses have led to severe displacement crises dent on humanitarian aid. Shortly before that,
and claimed countless lives. At the same time, Cyclone Freddy hit Madagascar, Malawi, and
extreme natural events resulted in injuries and Mozambique, causing nearly 1,000 deaths and
deaths, damaged buildings and infrastructure, a catastrophic loss of livestock in Malawi. Addi-
and destroyed the livelihood of millions of peo- tionally, it led to a dramatic increase of cholera
ple: Chile, for example, was affected by heavy cases in Mozambique as sanitation and water
wildfires at the beginning of the year and large supplies were destroyed. Once again, the coun-
parts of Asia experienced severe heat waves in tries suffering the most from the consequences
April. In the Horn of Africa, the rainy season of extreme natural events are the ones that have
failed to arrive once again, prolonging the cata- lost their ability to respond to shocks and crises
strophic drought in Somalia for another year. In due to previous conflicts and disasters, whereas
Turkey and Syria, earthquakes not only caused other countries have the societal capacities to
extreme damage and destruction of buildings, cope with the negative impact of these kinds of
streets, and supply structures but also resulted events. This fact is highlighted by the WorldRis-
in more than 100,000 injuries and deaths. In kIndex, which emphasizes the relevance of soci-
May, thousands of people in Bangladesh had to etal capacities in disaster prevention.
The concept of the WorldRiskIndex

The WorldRiskIndex is a synthesis of various as more recent discourses on coping and adap-
discourses and concepts on the phenomena of tation (Davies 1993; Lavell et al. 2012), which
hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the inter- emphasize an equivalence of driving forces.
action of which is considered to be the main Consequently, the WorldRiskIndex differs from
cause of disaster risks (Wisner et al. 2004). The earlier approaches (Cardona 2005; Peduzzi
model is based on the works of Bogardi and et al. 2009), which focused on the aspects of
Birkmann (2004), Cardona (1999), Birkmann risk, exposure, and damage. At the core of the
(2006), and Cardona / Carreno (2011), as well model lies the understanding that disaster
WorldRiskReport 2023 39
risks are not solely shaped by the occurrence, aspects of hazardousness, which includes
intensity, and duration of extreme natural the frequency and intensity of earthquakes,
events, but that societal factors, political con- tsunamis, coastal and river floods, cyclones,
ditions, and economic structures are equally droughts, and sea-level rise in an area (haz-
responsible for whether disasters occur in the ard zone), and populations (hazard object).
context of extreme natural events. This reflects
the assumption that, in theory, every society is + Vulnerability is the predisposition of pop-
capable of taking precautions, either directly or ulations to be vulnerable to damage from
indirectly, such as establishing and maintaining extreme natural events or negative impacts
effective disaster protection systems to address of climate change. As a sphere of economic,
the effects of natural hazards or climate change. political, social, and environmental factors,
vulnerability maps the capacities and dispo-
Last year, the model of the WorldRiskIndex sitions of people, households, and societies
was completely revised (Weller 2022) in order and indicates how easily and to what degree
to reflect that the risk profiles of countries and they can be destabilized, damaged, or even
regions have become more heterogeneous and destroyed by extreme events. It consists of
complex due to the impacts of climate change–a the three dimensions of susceptibility, lack
trend which is not only expected to continue in of coping capacities, and lack of adaptive
the foreseeable future but also gives rise to new capacities, which are subdivided into further
risks and hazards in regions that were previ- categories.
ously not or only to a limited extent exposed. In
order to adapt to these evolving conditions, it + Susceptibility refers to structural charac-
is crucial to develop and strengthen additional teristics and general conditions of societies
societal capacities. The focus on flexibility and that increase the overall likelihood of popu-
consistency is central to the new model. On lations suffering damage from extreme nat-
the one hand, this approach enables the utili- ural events and entering a state of disaster.
zation of a wide range of data for risk analysis In this respect, susceptibility indicates the
and facilitates the faster integration of new extent of resilience and resources of a pop-
aspects, such as new types of hazards. On the ulation to mitigate the immediate conse-
other hand, clearer processes and methods quences of extreme events.
enhance the comprehensibility of the analyses
and create new possibilities for evaluation. This + Coping capacities refers to the abilities and
is expressed, among other things, in a stron- measures of societies to counter adverse
ger alignment of the terms and definition of impacts of natural events or climate
the model with the terminology of the United change through direct actions and available
Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction resources in the form of formally or infor-
(UNDRR 2022): mally organized activities and measures, as
well as to reduce damage in the immediate
+ Risk is the interaction of the two spheres aftermath of an event and initiate recovery.
of exposure and vulnerability, which only Within the model of the WorldRiskIndex,
arises where both spheres meet. In this the deficits in these capacities are included,
respect, risks only occur where populations which is why it is referred to as the lack of
without sufficient resilience, coping, or coping capacities.
adaptation capacities live in regions, where
hazards from extreme natural events or neg- + Adaptive capacities, in contrast to coping
ative impacts of climate change exist. capacities, refers to long-term processes and
strategies to achieve anticipatory changes
+ Exposure is the extent to which populations in societal structures and systems to coun-
in hazard-prone areas are exposed to and teract, mitigate, or prevent future negative
burdened by the impacts of extreme natural impacts. Analogous to the lack of coping
events or the negative consequences of cli- capacities, the lack of adaptive capacities is
mate change. Thus, exposure consists of the included in the WorldRiskIndex.
In total, a set of 100 indicators is included in the to be precise and theoretically relevant, but also
calculation of the WorldRiskIndex (Figure 6). comparable, comprehensible, and consistent,
Only indicators provided by scientifically rec- as well as continuously provided by its data
ognized and publicly accessible data sources, source to meet the model’s requirements for
such as World Bank, UNESCO, and WHO, are transparency and reproducibility.
considered. Additionally, each indicator needs
The calculation of the results

Alongside structural changes, methodological This year, only the indicators of the vulnerability
adjustments were integrated into the model sphere were updated, as updating the exposure
to enhance the transparency and reproduc- sphere requires data from recent population cen-
ibility of the WorldRiskIndex calculations: suses, which will only be made available by data
Firstly, robust algorithms (King et al. 2001; sources in the next few years. However, this has
Honaker / King 2010) are applied to esti- little impact on the results of the WorldRiskIn-
mate plausible values for all missing data in dex, as changes in the exposure sphere can only
the indicators. These algorithms analyze cor- result from shifts of hazard zones and changes
relations between values of individual coun- in the spatial distribution of populations, and
tries across years and indicators. To maximize both phenomena tend to manifest their effects
the plausibility of the estimates, this process over long periods, spanning decades.
includes an additional 150 indicators beyond
those of the WorldRiskIndex. Following this, Furthermore, a concern raised by many read-
an Ordered-Quantile-Transformation (Barlett ers was addressed this year: It was noted that
1947; Van der Waerden 1969) is applied to analyses of temporal dynamics based on the
the completed indicators. This transformation WorldRiskIndex were previously hindered by
prevents skewed distributions or outliers from the fact that while the annual calculations of the
distorting the calculations before all indicators WorldRiskIndex are always based on the most
are normalized to a range of values from 0 to recent data available, many data sources offer
100 (min-max normalization). Higher values updates and corrections for preceding years
indicate more adverse circumstances or ini- over time. This occasionally led to discrepancies
tial conditions. Subsequently, these values are between WorldRiskIndex results and the raw
aggregated according to the structure of the data from these data sources. Starting this year,
WorldRiskIndex, using geometrical averaging. an additional longitudinal dataset, which will
Rounding to the second decimal simplifies the be updated annually, is introduced alongside
calculations. For easier accessibility, the val- the raw and results data of the current report.
ues of individual spheres and dimensions are This will allow users to analyze the time series
categorized into five classes whose limits were of each element in the model, starting from
determined based on the last 20 years (median 2000. In the tradition of previous reports, both
of the quintiles). For detailed explanations of data sets are available on the WorldRiskReport
the new methodology of the WorldRiskIndex, website and, starting this year, via the UN-
see Weller (2022). OCHA HDX platform.
The results of the WorldRiskIndex

The main result in recent years has been that those countries whose risk profiles are charac-
global disaster risks are distributed very het- terized by climate-sensitive exposure will be
erogeneously, and they are strongly linked to facing higher risks in the future. Accordingly,
aspects of poverty and inequality. Specifically, the global risk hotspots are expected to shift
The Structure of the WorldRiskIndex
Exposure
Strong
number and share of the Severe
population regarding Extreme
Intensity Levels Earthquakes Tsunamis
WorldRiskIndex =
Vulnerability Susceptibility
is composed of
Socio-Economic Development Socio-Economic Deprivation
+ Life Expectancy + Mean Years Of Schooling + Lack Of Access To At Least Basic + Fixed Broadband Subscriptions
At Birth + School Life Expectancy From Drinking Water Services (Percent) Per 1,000 Persons
+ Life Expectancy At Age 70 Primary To Tertiary Education + Lack Of Access To At Least Basic + Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
Sanitation Services (Percent) Per 1,000 Persons
+ Gross National Income Per + Net Volume Of Official Develop-

Capita (USD PPP) ment Assistance Received Per + Lack Of Access To Electricity (Percent) + Prevalence Of Undernourishment
+ Gross National Savings Per Capita (USD PPP) + Lack Of Access To Clean Cooking + Average Dietary Energy Supply
Capita (USD PPP) + Net Volume Of Personal Fuels (Percent) Adequacy
Remittances Received Per Capita
(USD PPP)
Vulnerable Populations Due To Violence, Conflicts And Disasters
Societal Disparities + Refugees, Asylum Seekers, Returned Refugees And Other Displaced
(Total and Percent)
+ Income Gini Coefficient + Young Age Dependency + Internally Displaced Persons Due To Natural Disasters (Total and Percent)
+ Income Top-Bottom Decentile + Old Age Dependency + Internally Displaced Persons Due To Violence And Conflict (Total and Percent)
Ratio
Vulnerable Populations Due To Diseases And Epidemics

+ Gender Disparity In Adolescent Fertility
+ Gender Disparity Of Mean Years Of Schooling + Prevalence Of HIV And AIDS
+ Gender Disparity Of School Life Expectancy From Primary To Tertiary + Prevalence Of Tuberculosis And Respiratory Diseases
Education + Prevalence Of Neglegted Tropical Diseases And Malaria
+ Gender Disparity Of Labour Force Participation + Prevalence Of Other Infectious Diseases
* These dimensions are not currently considered due to insufficient availability of indicators.
The unweighted geometric mean is used to aggregate the indicator values at all levels of the WorldRiskIndex.
Figure 6: The Structure of the WorldRiskIndex
Cyclones Coastal Floodings Riverine Floodings Droughts Sea Level Rise
Exposure × Vulnerability
Lack Of Coping Capacities Lack Of Adaptive Capacities
Recent Societal Shocks Educaction Research
+ Population Affected By Disasters In The Last 5 Years + Government Expenditure On + Government Expenditure On
(Total and Percent) Primary And Secondary Research And Development
+ Population Killed In Conflicts In The Last 5 Years Education Per Capita (USD PPP) Per Capita
(Total and Percent) + Number Of Teachers In Primary + Personnel In Research And
And Secondary Education Per Development Per 1,000
1,000 Students Persons
State And Government + Gross Enrolment Rate In Primary + Gross Enrolment Rate In
And Secondary Education Tertiary Education
+ Control Of Corrpution + Government Effectiveness
+ Rule Of Law + Political Stability And Abscence Of
Violence And Terror Long-Term Health And Deprivation Effects
+ Years Lost Due To Unsafe + Children Without Third

Water And Sanitation DTP Dosage (Percent)
Health Care Capacities
Sources + Children Without Third
+ Years Lost Due To Polio Dosage (Percent)
+ Medical Doctors And Practitioners + Maternal Mortality
Particulate Matter Air + Children Without
Per 1,000 Persons Rate
Pollution Second Measles
+ Nursing And Midwivery Personnel + U5 Child Mortality
+ Years Lost Due To Child Dosage (Percent)
Per 1,000 Persons Rate
And Maternal Malnutrition
+ Hospital Beds Per 1,000 Persons

+ Current Health Expenditures Per Capita (USD PPP)
Investment Capacities
+ Gross Fixed Capital Formation Per Capita (USD PPP)

Infrastructure* Social Networks* + General Consumer Price Instability (Rate)
Material Protection* Disaster Prepardness* Climate Change Mitigation*
in the coming decades. This year, however, the The stability of the global risk distribution ( Fig-
hotspots are once again located in the Americas ure 6) is evident as the Americas, once again,
and Asia, as reflected in the top ten countries have the highest median of all continents at
with the highest risk values: the Philippines, 9.67. This arises from the fact that 37 percent of
Indonesia, India, Mexico, Columbia, Myanmar, American countries have a very high exposure
Mozambique, Russia, Bangladesh, and China. value, while 40 percent display a high to very
The risk profiles of these countries show com- high vulnerability. However, the risk is distrib-
plex interactions of multiple exposures and uted very unevenly: North, Central, and South
high intensities. America each have a multiple of the global
median, while only the Caribbean is signifi-
Compared to last year, the analysis shows that cantly below this reference value.
Russia ranks 8th, while Pakistan is no longer
among the countries with the highest risks. Asia ranks second in the continental risk com-
Apart from these changes, the composition of parison. With a median of 4.97, it is slightly
the group remains unchanged. Concerning below last year’s value, yet remains well above
exposure, the results show similarities: seven the global risk median. It maintains the second
countries with the highest risks also rank position in terms of exposure and vulnerabil-
among the ten countries with the highest expo- ity. This can primarily be attributed to high-
sures–alongside Pakistan, Vietnam, Papua New risk countries such as the Philippines, India,
Guinea, and Madagascar, which belong to the Indonesia, Myanmar, China, and Bangladesh.
extended top group in both spheres. However, However, eight Asian countries are in the low-
a very high exposure does not always correlate est risk category–notably, Bahrain and Singa-
with very high risks, as South Korea and Italy–or pore, which are among the ten countries with
to a lesser extent, Japan and the USA–demon- the lowest risks worldwide. In terms of vul-
strate. These countries can noticeably reduce nerability, only Afghanistan and Yemen find
their disaster risks through their medium to themselves in the top group, closely followed
low vulnerabilities. The composition of the ten by Syria, Myanmar, the Philippines, Pakistan,
countries with the highest vulnerabilities also India, Bangladesh, Iraq, Indonesia, and Leba-
remains relatively stable, although this group non, which constitute the extended top group of
now exclusively contains African countries due the highest vulnerability. Aside from Indonesia
to Mali now ranking among them instead of and Bangladesh, all these countries display high
Afghanistan. or very high vulnerabilities across all three cat-
egories. Therefore, these countries are at risk of
Overall, the results reveal three phenomena depleting social capacities due to the mid-term
that account for the majority of year-on-year effects of conflicts (Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria,
changes: The analysis shows that economic and Myanmar) or cyclical extreme events (the
and gender-related disparities increased in Philippines, Indonesia, and Pakistan), thus fur-
the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Many of ther exacerbating their poor rankings.
these disparities have persisted and continue to
impact the vulnerability of numerous countries. In third place is Africa, whose risk median of
Additionally, a widespread decline in childhood 4.39 is highly affected by the risks in North
immunization rates since the onset of the pan- Africa, where very high vulnerability intersects
demic is recovering at a slow pace, with notice- with relatively high exposure. Across all parts of
able differences across the globe shaping adap- Africa, vulnerability consistently surpasses the
tive capacities. In terms of coping capacities, global median. However, the risk remains sub-
unstable consumer goods prices caused by the stantially lower compared to the risk hotspots
Covid-19 pandemic and the start of the war in in the Americas and Asia. Globally, Mozam-
Ukraine have been the most impactful factors. bique stands as Africa's sole representative
This particularly affects countries whose capac- among the ten countries with the highest risk
ities had already been compromised before values. Additionally, Somalia, Madagascar,
these events. Egypt, Tanzania, Libya, and Kenya also belong
to the highest risk class. The formative nature of
The global data gap in the field of diversity
Reliable, comprehensive and disaggre- some contexts. This not only undermines Challenges and recommendations
gated data are an important prerequisite the fundamental rights of those affected
for comparative analysis of disaster risks (article 2.1), but also aggravates existing In response to the outlined risks, invest-
and for needs-based disaster prevention data gaps: for example, same-sex sexual ments in the collection and provision
and response. In the context of diversity, acts, especially between men, are pros- of disaggregated data have already
however, there is a lack of global data sets ecuted in more than 60 countries world- increased, yet there is still a lack of coor-
that reflect different dimensions of diver- wide. In countries such as Iran, Saudi dination structures (Chaplin et al. 2019).
sity and thereby show the specific needs Arabia or Brunei, even the death penal- While a couple of platforms seek to pool
and resources of certain social groups in ty can be imposed (Human Rights Watch existing data sets (see above), there is no
different countries and regions. 2023). Therefore, the LGBTQIA* communi- institution explicitly mandated to clean,
ty is usually completely invisible in the harmonize and process that data. Mean-
Causes of the insufficient global data census data collected at the national level while, specialized help organizations
situation in these countries. While indices such as are trying to fill data gaps on their own,
the Gender Inequality Index of the Unit- for example Save the Children with its
One of the main reasons for the poor ed Nations do address structural discrim- Group-based Inequality Database, which
availability of global data is a varying ination on a meta-level and can provide relies entirely on disaggregated data and
understanding of diversity and its vari- rough indications on the protection needs captures group-based inequalities of chil-
ous dimensions, as well as differences in of marginalized groups (UNDP 2023), dren in about 80 countries (Save the Chil-
national approaches to data collection: humanitarian actors are often left alone dren 2023).
Globally, for example, personal data are with the task of determining the form
generally disaggregated by gender. In the and scale of these needs in the specif- Although reliable, detailed and disaggre-
UN Women Data Hub and the Gender Data ic disaster context (article 2.4). Limited gated data are an important prerequisite,
Portal of the World Bank, international resources and capacities for data collec- their availability (alone) does not guar-
Organizations seek to bundle gender-spe- tion at the national level can exacerbate antee more effective and needs-based
cific data on designated platforms (UN this problem. disaster management: Gender specif-
Women 2022, World Bank 2022). Howev- ic data, for example, do not provide any
er, non-binary gender categories are rare- Effects in case of disaster: „What isn’t information on gender roles and relations
ly ever listed in these data sets, as the counted, doesn’t count“ (European Institute for Gender Equality
spectrum of possible gender identities 2023), which are crucial to understanding
highly depends on the social and cultural The poor global data situation can under- power relations and (protection) needs in
construction of gender in the respective mine the efficiency of humanitarian disaster situations. Therefore, as a holistic
country. Therefore, when in doubt, global action and protection: In the aftermath and intersectional approach to disaster
data sets rely on a binary system in order of the 2015 Nepal earthquakes, the lack management, not only does the availabil-
to ensure comparability of different states of (disaggregated) data led to an insuf- ity of data in the field of diversity need to
and regions. In other dimensions of diver- ficient number of aid distribution points be fundamentally improved, but the exist-
sity, such as ethnic and social origin or which were accessible for people with ing data also needs to be complemented
sexual orientation, there can be even more disabilities (Lord et al. 2016). This not only by participatory ways of working as well as
variation in country-specific conceptions. compromises effective and needs-based and local and context-specific knowledge.
Provided that relevant data are collected support, but, at worst, also reproduces or
at all, there are usually few attempts of reinforces existing patterns of discrimina- Sören Schneider,
harmonizing it. tion. The lack of availability of global data Research Associate, IFHV,
also complicates the (statistical) analysis Ruhr-Universität Bochum
Social and cultural perceptions of certain of the relationship between the degree
manifestations of diversity lead to struc- of inclusion and diversity and the disaster
tural discrimination and stigmatization in risk of a society.
vulnerability for Africa becomes evident when be fully represented in the indicators, has vis-
compared with exposure: Only 30 percent of ibly exacerbated vulnerabilities for Russia and
the continent’s countries display high to very Ukraine. It can be presumed that future reports
high exposure, while nearly 80 percent of the will also reflect changes in the vulnerability of
continent is in the highest two groups of the neighboring countries, as conflicts and crises
vulnerability sphere. This is reflected by the not only impact the parties involved but also
ten countries with the highest vulnerabilities strain the capacities in their respective regions.
worldwide: Somalia, South Sudan, the Central
African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Repub- Essentially, these results align with the find-
lic of Congo, Niger, Mali, Mozambique, and ings of previous WorldRiskReports. However,
Ethiopia–joined by Yemen as the sole excep- they merely represent the status quo of com-
tion, as it's not situated in Africa. Africa's cur- plex developments that can span multiple years
rent safeguard against higher risk values arises to decades. To depict latent trends and illus-
from its relatively low exposure. However, this trate the potential of trend analyses, smooth-
scenario is unlikely to persist due to the impacts ing splines with penalization (Eilers and Marx
of climate change and increasing periods of heat 1996) have been applied to estimate smooth
and drought. trend curves for the continental medians from
2000 to 2023 (Figure Y). This analysis shows
With a median of 4.07, the continent of Ocea- that (1) disaster risks and their components
nia retains its fourth rank. Notably, it hosts two have changed dynamically since 2000, (2) the
local risk hotspots: Australia and New Zealand, trajectories of individual regions are remark-
alongside Papua New Guinea and the Solomon ably similar, and (3) despite high variability in
Islands, both located in Melanesia. In contrast, the medians, latent trends in the components
the Poly- and Micronesian islands of Tuvalu, suggest emerging shifts in regional hotspots.
Palau, and Nauru fall into the lowest risk class. Due to the extreme stability of the exposure
Once again, Oceania mirrors Africa, as the sphere, whose values only alter when popula-
continent’s risk profile is decisively shaped by tion numbers or distribution change or hazard
exposure. This is evident from the fact that only zones shift, which, however, are not observable
Papua New Guinea has a high vulnerability, within the analysis period, this aspect is not
while Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zea- taken into account in the following sections.
land, and the Solomon Islands have very high
exposure values. Concerning the evolution of the risk medi-
ans, three distinct dynamics emerge: Asia and
Within the continental ranking, Europe is once Europe have shown a steady, linear increase in
again the only continent that ranks consider- their trend curves since 2000, with the relative
ably below the global medians across all areas of increase for Asia being notably stronger than
the WorldRiskIndex. However, there are nota- Europe’s. In contrast, Africa and Oceania show
ble variations among countries within Europe: a dynamic that was initially characterized by
Eastern and Southern Europe’s vulnerabilities a strong decrease in risks until 2010, before a
are up to twice as high as those in Northern reversal occurred, and both continents experi-
Europe, while Northern Europe’s exposition is enced higher risks once again–although in both
only exceeded in Southern Europe. This differ- cases, these remained well below their initial
ence stems from the fact that one-third of South- levels. Only the Americas show a trend curve
ern European countries–Italy, Greece, Spain, that deviates from those of other continents in
Portugal, and Albania–fall into the two highest terms of both level and dynamics: An increase
exposure classes, whereas most Northern Euro- until 2007 was followed by a sharp risk reduc-
pean countries, except for Great Britain, have tion until 2010. Subsequently, a prolonged
very low vulnerabilities. Overall, Europe finds phase of stable increase ensued, ultimately
itself in a favorable position, although the antic- bringing the continent back to its initial level
ipation of increased droughts, severe weather, by 2020. Only in recent years has there been a
and storms over the next few decades is likely slight decline in risk.
to lead to a notable increase of risk values. Fur-
thermore, the war in Ukraine, which has yet to
Analyzing the trend curves for the vulnerability The influences depicted by these trends are
sphere reveals three distinct patterns as well. evident in the figures representing the three
The long-term trends for the Americas and vulnerability components. Notably, a universal
Europe remain relatively stable, despite brief reduction in susceptibility is discernible until
decreases and increases. This stands in con- 2010. Subsequently, Europe, Oceania, and Asia
trast to Africa and Asia, whose smoothed trend managed to stabilize their levels. However, sus-
curves indicate a slight increase in vulnerability ceptibility in Africa and the Americas under-
from 2000 onward before a reversal of the trend went significant increases, especially in the case
began in 2010 and 2015. Following these rever- of the Americas, where it even exceeded the ini-
sals, both continents experience rising trends; tial level. In terms of the lack of coping capac-
however, it's worth noting that vulnerability ities, only Oceania's trend stands out, portray-
has been noticeably reduced in both cases. Oce- ing showing an increase in capacities by nearly
ania, on the other hand, displays a dynamic that one-third during the first decade of analysis,
seems to be a blend of both groups. It initially followed by a subsequent reversal and eventual
declines like the trends observed in the Amer- stabilization at the present level. Concerning
icas and Europe until 2005. Subsequently, it the lack of adaptive capacities, Asia and Europe
rises in a manner comparable to the trends seen stand out, as Asia was initially able to reduce its
in Africa and Asia. deficits from 2010 to 2015 before experiencing
Lack of Coping Lack of Adaptive

WRI Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Capacities Capacities
Africa 4.39 0.7 30.53 30.4 14.68 59.83
Central Africa 4.52 0.86 51.44 34.66 58.41 59.29
East Africa 3.93 0.55 32.96 33.59 15.08 61.31
North Africa 10.12 3.91 32.88 17.59 48.09 46.12
South Africa 1.97 0.14 26.7 23.92 12.83 51.41
West Africa 2.99 0.44 28.61 31.19 13.48 62.46
The Americas 9.67 4.29 20.23 21.14 11.29 45.75
Caribbean 3.01 0.79 13.41 9.19 8.49 41.57
Central America 15.64 9.36 27.03 31.75 12.22 50.46
North America 20.82 32.74 13.48 10.73 6.78 34.01
South America 13.77 8.96 25.33 26.68 12.47 47.02
Asia 4.97 1.6 21.88 14.75 12.6 44.39
Central Asia 2.15 0.22 18.43 15.1 10.92 41.72
East Asia 12.75 9.96 11.79 14.11 11.54 23.43
South Asia 5.92 1.6 31.12 27.73 55.86 45.75
Southeast Asia 14.04 8.64 22.83 16.01 13.65 46.38
West Asia 3.86 1.02 18.62 12.63 16.37 41.34
Europe 2.4 0.49 9.28 6.97 5.55 35.42
Eastern Europe 1.87 0.21 14.05 8.4 8.67 39.7
Northern Europe 2.52 0.72 7.59 6.41 2.19 27.6
Southern Europe 2.88 0.59 11.89 8.23 7.29 35.7
Western Europe 1.15 0.17 7.75 5.6 3.21 28.91
Oceania 4.07 1.23 14 9.77 10.96 39.27
Australia / New Zealand 17.79 24.6 12.92 7.37 10.32 30.28
Melanesia 12.86 7.71 21.66 17.18 12.19 52.98
Micronesia 2.69 0.5 13.53 9.79 5.44 45.2
Polynesia 2.94 0.81 10.67 9.56 11.02 29.2
World 4.13 1.05 20.23 14.97 11.88 45.94
Figure 7: Comparison of the medians of the country groups (based on WorldRiskIndex 2023)
a return to baseline levels. In contrast, Europe of risk, its driving factors, and the dispersion
shows a modest exponential increase from 2015 across the continents are not explicitly consid-
onwards, which will likely bring the continent ered. However, it is evident that latent dynam-
to the level of Oceania in the upcoming years. ics exist, which will impact the ranking of con-
tinents in the coming decades. Furthermore,
Due to the focus on the medians of the conti- these results serve as examples of possible anal-
nents, this analysis remains relatively general, yses across components, regions, and years,
as aspects such as the regional distribution leveraging the new longitudinal data set.
Chances and limits of the WorldRiskIndex

The main idea of the WorldRiskIndex is to raise difficult to integrate into the concepts, struc-
awareness of the relevance of social capacities tures, and processes of the WorldRiskIndex.
in reducing disaster risks, to offer orientation
for practitioners in preventing humanitarian Concerning the availability of data, it has to be
crises, and to assist decision-making when it noted that global indicators may contain miss-
comes to the allocation and prioritization of ing values as well as delays between collection,
resources. The index is supposed to foster an processing, and publication. This results from
understanding that the emergence and pro- the fact that resources for collecting data are
gression of disasters are greatly influenced by often redirected in times of crisis, and data
the social conditions of the people, regions, and sources often fail to collect and provide data
countries affected. of smaller countries in the necessary quality.
Accordingly, up-to-date data are not available
With the release of the new WorldRiskIndex, for all 193 member states of the United Nations,
the major weaknesses of the previous model which particularly affects small countries and
were addressed through new approaches and countries in need and crises. Although these
procedures, and the transparency of the calcu- challenges are taken into account by estimating
lation was increased. Given the nature of index missing values, it must be acknowledged that
models, a few aspects cannot be completely the results of the affected countries inherently
avoided: complex issues are reduced to individ- carry a level of uncertainty, despite the efforts
ual values, which offers the advantages of rapid to ensure high precision and plausibility.
orientation, easier communication, and visual-
ization of results, but also carries the risk that Another weakness of the model is that metadata
subtle aspects may be lost or obscured in the of the indicators often do not show whether
course of the reduction. and, if so, which territories (e.g. overseas ter-
ritories, exclaves) are included in the data. To
Additionally, the model has deficiencies in the mitigate this issue, external territories were not
areas of “infrastructure”, “social networks” or attributed to their respective sovereign entities
“material security” due to a lack of data avail- to minimize inaccuracies arising from this dis-
ability. Moreover, it should be noted that the crepancy. However, this was not possible for all
WorldRiskIndex specifically assesses the risk of countries: In these cases, population-weighted
disasters resulting from extreme natural events averages were calculated where separate values
and the negative impacts of climate change. were available for these countries and territo-
Therefore, other types of risks such as conflicts, ries. Due to differences in the treatment of the
wars, or pandemics are intentionally consid- territories of Kosovo, Palestine, and Taiwan, an
ered only partially or not at all, since, on the one allocation was made to the territories of Serbia,
hand, their drivers differ in many ways from Israel, and China for reasons of methodological
those of risks due to natural events and, on the consistency. It is imperative to note, however,
other hand, their explanatory approaches are that this approach is solely for methodological
reasons and does not reflect political positions,
the endorsement, or acceptance of international factors, including disparities in access to essen-
legal and political claims. tial civil supply infrastructure between urban
and rural populations, will be integrated into the
Regarding the strengths of the WorldRiskIn- WorldRiskIndex. As a result, the new WorldRis-
dex, the new longitudinal data set alone offers kIndex not only facilitates a wide array of analy-
numerous analytical possibilities that provide ses but can also be leveraged for complex strat-
insights into structural influences and tempo- egy and policy decisions. However, it should
ral dynamics of disaster risks. With the ability be noted that qualitative approaches should
to integrate new elements into the model more always be included in addition to the WorldRis-
rapidly than before, one of the focuses in the kIndex to obtain the broadest possible basis for
upcoming years will be to develop models for decision-making and to be able to compensate
new hazard types, such as heat and cold waves for potential uncertainties that could arise from
and landslides. Additionally, new vulnerability the reduction in complexity.
Appendix
WorldRiskIndex 2023 Overview
Lack of Lack of
Classification WorldRiskIndex Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Coping Capacities Adaptive Capacities
very low 0.00 – 1.84 0.00 – 0.17 0.00 – 9.90 0.00 – 7.17 0.00 – 3.47 0.00 – 25.28
low 1.85 – 3.20 0.18 – 0.56 9.91 – 15.87 7.18 – 11.85 3.48 – 10.01 25.29 – 37.47
medium 3.21 – 5.87 0.57 – 1.76 15.88 – 24.43 11.86 – 19.31 10.02 – 12.64 37.48 – 48.04
high 5.88 – 12.88 1.77 – 7.78 24.44 – 33.01 19.32 – 34.16 12.65 – 39.05 48.05 – 59.00
very high 12.89 – 100.00 7.79 – 100.00 33.02 – 100.00 34.17 – 100.00 39.06 – 100.00 59.01 – 100.00
Since 2022 the WorldRiskIndex and its elements will use fixed thresholds for the classification of countries to enable medium- and long-term trends analyses. These threshold values for the WorldRiskIndex and
each dimension were calculated as the median of the quintiles from the results of the last 20 years.
Lack of
Lack of Adaptive
Rank Country WorldRiskIndex Exposure Vulnerability Susceptibility Coping Capacities Capacities
1. Philippines 46.86 39.99 54.92 51.21 58.84 54.98
2. Indonesia 43.50 39.89 47.43 45.46 50.59 46.38
3. India 41.52 35.99 47.89 37.79 55.86 52.04
4. Mexico 38.17 50.08 29.09 44.78 12.28 44.76
5. Colombia 37.64 31.54 44.93 39.65 50.01 45.75
6. Myanmar 36.16 22.43 58.28 52.14 58.83 64.54
7. Mozambique 34.61 18.10 66.17 65.78 64.15 68.65
8. Russian Federation 28.20 28.35 28.05 14.97 39.00 37.81
9. Bangladesh 27.29 16.57 44.93 35.30 57.88 44.39
10. China 27.10 64.59 11.37 14.75 11.54 8.63
11. Pakistan 26.45 13.11 53.38 40.23 60.92 62.06
12. Papua New Guinea 26.30 18.84 36.71 56.19 13.85 63.58
13. Peru 25.55 16.65 39.22 27.28 46.96 47.10
14. Somalia 25.09 8.55 73.63 67.49 82.11 72.02
15. Yemen 24.39 9.12 65.24 60.26 69.29 66.50
15. Viet Nam 24.39 26.73 22.25 21.55 12.50 40.90
17. Madagascar 23.59 18.38 30.27 25.97 15.27 69.94
18. Ecuador 23.58 14.57 38.15 26.41 44.16 47.60
19. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 23.47 19.52 28.22 25.04 14.60 61.45
20. United States of America 22.47 39.59 12.75 11.16 5.71 32.54
21. Nicaragua 21.76 18.71 25.31 21.37 14.04 54.02
22. Australia 21.54 31.21 14.87 8.12 14.54 27.85
23. Thailand 21.09 14.32 31.07 16.01 48.79 38.38
24. Japan 20.86 43.67 9.96 11.43 5.09 16.97
25. Iran (Islamic Republic of) 19.72 12.49 31.12 19.92 57.99 26.08
26. Canada 19.17 25.89 14.20 10.29 7.84 35.48
27. Panama 18.82 15.89 22.29 26.40 10.81 38.82
28. Egypt 17.76 10.74 29.38 11.85 46.49 46.04
29. Honduras 16.79 8.82 31.95 39.35 14.55 56.97
30. Turkey 16.17 8.90 29.38 12.63 48.58 41.34
31. United Republic of Tanzania 16.08 5.49 47.09 33.66 55.22 56.18
32. Argentina 14.88 11.54 19.18 13.98 10.76 46.93
33. Solomon Islands 14.82 9.62 22.82 17.82 12.32 54.15
34. El Salvador 14.49 7.30 28.75 37.10 12.16 52.68
35. Chile 14.06 12.86 15.37 9.97 9.04 40.30
36. Malaysia 14.04 8.64 22.83 15.90 20.01 37.42
36. New Zealand 14.04 17.99 10.96 6.62 6.09 32.70
38. Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13.93 4.94 39.26 23.84 53.86 47.13
39. Kenya 13.71 3.27 57.52 58.22 57.81 56.55
Lack of
Lack of Adaptive
40. Brazil 13.47 6.37 28.47 36.84 12.37 50.63
41. Dominican Republic 12.92 7.05 23.68 22.87 11.88 48.86
42. Dem. People's Republic of Korea 12.75 7.22 22.52 14.11 13.76 58.81
43. Costa Rica 12.48 9.89 15.76 22.86 10.88 15.73
44. Syrian Arab Republic 12.24 2.53 59.20 48.72 71.32 59.70
45. Guatemala 11.71 4.29 31.99 40.45 14.37 56.33
46. Cameroon 11.15 2.08 59.74 58.44 61.53 59.29
47. Angola 11.04 2.37 51.44 33.47 58.21 69.87
48. Vanuatu 10.90 5.80 20.49 13.77 12.06 51.81
49. Republic of Korea 10.84 9.96 11.79 8.71 8.04 23.43
50. Djibouti 10.68 4.25 26.85 23.79 14.42 56.42
51. Sudan 10.27 1.65 63.91 60.01 63.64 68.36
52. Italy 9.97 8.69 11.43 7.96 5.25 35.77
53. Morocco 9.96 7.63 12.99 14.98 12.02 12.17
54. Democratic Republic of Congo 9.73 1.37 69.11 70.92 69.24 67.21
55. Haiti 9.67 2.78 33.65 35.88 15.43 68.85
56. Spain 9.64 7.77 11.97 6.97 7.38 33.35
57. Algeria 9.52 2.62 34.61 18.06 49.69 46.20
58. Tunisia 9.47 2.88 31.15 17.12 44.18 39.97
59. Iraq 9.23 1.72 49.55 36.65 66.59 49.85
60. Nigeria 9.17 1.32 63.74 57.49 66.17 68.06
61. South Africa 9.14 3.13 26.70 29.12 12.83 50.97
62. Mauritania 9.01 2.91 27.89 23.17 15.14 61.82
63. Saudi Arabia 8.76 5.25 14.63 5.43 19.79 29.16
64. Greece 8.58 8.25 8.93 8.82 8.09 9.98
65. Cambodia 8.19 2.47 27.18 29.66 13.65 49.62
66. Guyana 8.13 2.63 25.14 28.67 11.85 46.79
67. Timor-Leste 7.79 2.93 20.71 13.36 12.60 52.77
68. Cuba 7.76 4.57 13.19 12.73 10.32 17.47
69. Belize 7.61 2.50 23.14 21.14 12.15 48.24
70. Eritrea 7.58 2.30 25.01 18.65 14.58 57.55
71. Oman 7.53 6.68 8.48 14.18 4.81 8.94
72. France 7.39 2.70 20.23 8.46 29.38 33.29
73. Guinea 6.86 1.47 32.02 31.77 14.61 70.72
74. Suriname 6.72 1.78 25.36 26.95 11.29 53.62
75. Fiji 6.41 2.79 14.74 16.53 11.43 16.95
76. Albania 6.23 2.29 16.95 11.51 11.28 37.51
77. Sri Lanka 5.92 1.60 21.88 18.92 12.10 45.75
78. Belgium 5.83 1.84 18.49 8.03 27.21 28.91
79. Namibia 5.68 1.32 24.43 23.57 12.03 51.41
80. United Kingdom 5.66 2.58 12.43 6.76 7.59 37.40
81. Senegal 5.49 1.05 28.66 30.60 13.00 59.16
82. Sierra Leone 5.32 3.07 9.23 8.09 6.93 14.04
82. Portugal 5.32 1.09 25.96 18.99 13.61 67.72
84. Republic of Congo 5.24 0.57 48.18 34.66 58.41 55.24
85. United Arab Emirates 4.97 3.77 6.56 4.09 2.23 30.91
86. Ethiopia 4.85 0.36 65.44 64.71 62.02 69.83
86. Gambia 4.85 0.67 35.10 56.53 12.79 59.82
88. Uruguay 4.80 1.54 14.96 9.61 8.33 41.86
89. Bahamas 4.78 1.51 15.10 8.56 9.67 41.57
90. Croatia 4.77 1.57 14.48 8.54 9.60 37.03
91. Gabon 4.52 1.50 13.62 15.80 3.28 48.80
Lack of
Lack of Adaptive
92. Federated States of Micronesia 4.37 1.12 17.07 10.00 10.90 45.63
93. Netherlands 4.32 2.20 8.47 5.60 3.28 33.07
94. Germany 4.30 1.99 9.28 7.02 3.21 35.42
95. South Sudan 4.25 0.25 72.19 73.20 68.79 74.71
96. Poland 4.22 1.73 10.28 5.20 5.21 40.15
97. Guinea-Bissau 4.13 0.67 25.48 18.97 13.39 65.09
98. Afghanistan 4.02 0.25 64.59 56.02 78.19 61.52
98. Ukraine 4.02 0.48 33.63 18.78 42.11 48.11
100. Israel 3.93 0.88 17.57 11.13 16.37 29.77
101. Lebanon 3.86 0.38 39.12 21.99 46.97 57.95
102. Jamaica 3.84 1.10 13.41 8.89 5.55 48.87
103. Tonga 3.77 1.33 10.67 9.56 11.41 11.13
104. Georgia 3.69 0.73 18.62 15.32 9.28 45.41
105. Jordan 3.65 0.57 23.33 13.73 19.98 46.26
106. Mauritius 3.60 0.73 17.77 12.43 9.82 45.94
107. Cyprus 3.56 1.02 12.43 7.26 7.45 35.48
108. Antigua and Barbuda 3.51 1.20 10.26 5.46 5.16 38.31
109. Equatorial Guinea 3.37 0.86 13.20 11.06 3.58 58.05
110. Central African Republic 3.36 0.16 70.67 75.77 64.55 72.17
111. Romania 3.33 0.71 15.60 9.25 8.68 47.28
112. Ireland 3.25 1.45 7.30 4.59 3.43 24.76
113. Malawi 3.17 0.35 28.64 25.65 14.03 65.31
114. Montenegro 3.13 0.83 11.80 8.37 4.39 44.66
115. Burundi 3.03 0.16 57.38 47.46 59.56 66.84
116. Dominica 3.01 0.79 11.49 7.03 5.27 40.98
117. Ghana 2.99 0.34 26.34 28.76 12.17 52.22
117. Liberia 2.99 0.54 16.52 20.20 3.53 63.23
119. Plurinational State of Bolivia 2.98 0.35 25.30 28.14 13.47 42.71
119. Trinidad and Tobago 2.98 0.49 18.08 12.41 11.31 42.11
121. Zambia 2.94 0.81 10.65 9.74 2.54 48.87
121. Samoa 2.94 0.28 30.78 34.17 13.91 61.36
123. Chad 2.90 0.12 70.25 70.25 70.16 70.33
124. Norway 2.89 1.06 7.90 6.55 3.18 23.67
125. Kuwait 2.88 1.05 7.92 5.98 2.58 32.21
126. Uganda 2.80 0.23 34.19 50.05 13.77 57.99
127. Lao People's Democratic Republic 2.79 0.38 20.42 10.35 13.61 60.47
128. Seychelles 2.76 1.03 7.40 4.34 2.50 37.38
129. Kiribati 2.75 0.69 10.95 9.79 2.80 47.94
130. Latvia 2.74 0.79 9.49 9.29 2.29 40.13
131. Comoros 2.73 0.33 22.51 12.92 14.75 59.83
132. Sweden 2.72 1.05 7.05 3.80 5.55 16.65
133. Rwanda 2.69 0.50 14.47 12.33 5.44 45.20
133. Marshall Islands 2.69 0.16 45.27 33.52 45.17 61.26
135. Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.63 0.34 20.28 14.13 11.51 51.26
136. Armenia 2.61 0.23 29.68 14.22 41.24 44.57
137. Barbados 2.58 0.48 13.87 6.99 8.49 44.93
138. Nepal 2.57 0.25 26.35 27.73 13.01 50.73
139. Zimbabwe 2.52 0.20 31.73 31.54 14.88 68.08
140. Tajikistan 2.47 0.23 26.53 34.53 11.61 46.60
141. Saint Lucia 2.45 0.46 13.01 9.19 5.16 46.48
142. Kyrgyzstan 2.42 0.22 26.53 33.53 11.08 50.27
142. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2.42 0.43 13.67 16.01 9.71 16.42
Lack of
Lack of Adaptive
144. Bulgaria 2.40 0.30 19.15 17.48 8.65 46.46
145. Saint Kitts and Nevis 2.33 0.53 10.20 7.18 4.83 30.63
146. Mali 2.31 0.64 8.31 6.98 2.08 39.50
146. Lithuania 2.31 0.08 66.43 61.03 70.18 68.44
148. Palau 2.21 0.36 13.53 7.30 10.17 33.34
149. Niger 2.16 0.07 66.49 68.67 67.85 63.10
150. Kazakhstan 2.15 0.25 18.43 15.10 10.13 40.93
151. Mongolia 2.11 0.21 21.15 18.20 11.63 44.67
152. Azerbaijan 2.09 0.23 19.02 11.32 12.32 49.36
153. Burkina Faso 2.01 0.07 57.64 47.61 61.45 65.44
154. Eswatini 1.97 0.14 27.66 30.20 13.36 52.44
155. Slovenia 1.96 0.31 12.40 7.44 7.19 35.63
156. Cote d'Ivoire 1.86 0.13 26.59 24.41 13.03 59.13
157. Grenada 1.85 0.31 11.02 14.34 2.55 36.61
158. Estonia 1.84 0.43 7.87 6.70 1.92 37.87
159. Iceland 1.81 0.55 5.97 6.26 1.71 19.86
160. Serbia 1.75 0.17 17.92 14.15 9.57 42.49
161. Paraguay 1.68 0.14 20.23 12.71 12.56 51.90
162. Benin 1.60 0.09 28.56 41.20 12.87 43.94
163. Uzbekistan 1.52 0.18 12.83 10.26 10.92 18.86
164. Togo 1.45 0.07 30.12 32.98 13.57 61.05
165. Finland 1.43 0.49 4.20 5.71 0.49 26.53
166. Tuvalu 1.42 0.15 13.53 7.69 11.02 29.20
167. Lesotho 1.38 0.07 27.35 23.92 14.02 61.02
168. Botswana 1.35 0.09 20.12 15.74 10.37 49.91
169. Republic of Moldova 1.33 0.10 17.72 11.78 9.73 48.54
169. Turkmenistan 1.33 0.17 10.48 9.07 3.04 41.72
171. North Macedonia 1.30 0.33 5.12 8.07 2.24 7.43
171. Brunei Darussalam 1.30 0.10 16.92 9.54 10.36 48.99
173. Bhutan 1.21 0.10 14.53 8.58 8.94 39.97
174. Maldives 1.19 0.11 12.84 6.90 9.96 30.83
175. Cape Verde 1.18 0.07 20.05 15.34 10.89 48.22
176. Qatar 1.15 0.17 7.75 4.73 3.17 31.05
176. Austria 1.15 0.15 8.84 4.44 7.98 19.53
178. Czech Republic 1.12 0.10 12.49 7.55 6.68 38.61
179. Switzerland 1.02 0.16 6.50 4.31 2.67 23.84
180. Nauru 1.00 0.11 9.16 9.01 2.89 29.47
181. Denmark 0.99 0.18 5.42 3.47 1.60 28.66
182. Slovakia 0.95 0.10 9.02 4.59 4.08 39.25
183. Hungary 0.94 0.11 7.98 5.33 9.22 10.36
184. Malta 0.88 0.15 5.13 4.67 2.07 13.99
185. Bahrain 0.87 0.14 5.42 4.85 2.61 12.55
186. Belarus 0.75 0.05 11.14 6.49 5.83 36.57
187. Liechtenstein 0.72 0.09 5.70 6.68 1.00 27.77
188. Sao Tome and Principe 0.67 0.02 22.28 16.85 12.74 51.52
189. Luxembourg 0.64 0.06 6.81 5.36 5.76 10.22
190. Singapore 0.63 0.15 2.61 2.71 0.83 7.92
191. San Marino 0.36 0.03 4.23 2.83 1.31 20.47
192. Monaco 0.24 0.02 2.79 2.79 1.00 7.75
193. Andorra 0.22 0.02 2.37 2.68 1.73 2.86
WorldRiskIndex 2023, Countries in Alphabetical Order
Country WRI Rank Country WRI Rank
Afghanistan 4.02 98. Dominican Republic 12.92 41.
Albania 6.23 76. Ecuador 23.58 18.
Algeria 9.52 57. Egypt 17.76 28.
Andorra 0.22 193. El Salvador 14.49 34.
Angola 11.04 47. Equatorial Guinea 3.37 109.
Antigua and Barbuda 3.51 108. Eritrea 7.58 70.
Argentina 14.88 32. Estonia 1.84 158.
Armenia 2.61 136. Eswatini 1.97 154.
Australia 21.54 22. Ethiopia 4.85 86.
Austria 1.15 176. Federated States of Micronesia 4.37 92.
Azerbaijan 2.09 152. Fiji 6.41 75.
Bahamas 4.78 89. Finland 1.43 165.
Bahrain 0.87 185. France 7.39 72.
Bangladesh 27.29 9. Gabon 4.52 91.
Barbados 2.58 137. Gambia 4.85 86.
Belarus 0.75 186. Georgia 3.69 104.
Belgium 5.83 78. Germany 4.30 94.
Belize 7.61 69. Ghana 2.99 117.
Benin 1.60 162. Greece 8.58 64.
Bhutan 1.21 173. Grenada 1.85 157.
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 23.47 19. Guatemala 11.71 45.
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.63 135. Guinea 6.86 73.
Botswana 1.35 168. Guinea-Bissau 4.13 97.
Brazil 13.47 40. Guyana 8.13 66.
Brunei Darussalam 1.30 171. Haiti 9.67 55.
Bulgaria 2.40 144. Honduras 16.79 29.
Burkina Faso 2.01 153. Hungary 0.94 183.
Burundi 3.03 115. Iceland 1.81 159.
Cambodia 8.19 65. India 41.52 3.
Cameroon 11.15 46. Indonesia 43.50 2.
Canada 19.17 26. Iran (Islamic Republic of) 19.72 25.
Cape Verde 1.18 175. Iraq 9.23 59.
Central African Republic 3.36 110. Ireland 3.25 112.
Chad 2.90 123. Israel 3.93 100.
Chile 14.06 35. Italy 9.97 52.
China 27.10 10. Jamaica 3.84 102.
Colombia 37.64 5. Japan 20.86 24.
Comoros 2.73 131. Jordan 3.65 105.
Costa Rica 12.48 43. Kazakhstan 2.15 150.
Cote d'Ivoire 1.86 156. Kenya 13.71 39.
Croatia 4.77 90. Kiribati 2.75 129.
Cuba 7.76 68. Kuwait 2.88 125.
Cyprus 3.56 107. Kyrgyzstan 2.42 142.
Czech Republic 1.12 178. Lao People's Democratic Republic 2.79 127.
Dem. People's Republic of Korea 12.75 42. Latvia 2.74 130.
Democratic Republic of Congo 9.73 54. Lebanon 3.86 101.
Denmark 0.99 181. Lesotho 1.38 167.
Djibouti 10.68 50. Liberia 2.99 117.
Dominica 3.01 116. Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 13.93 38.
Country WRI Rank Country WRI Rank
Liechtenstein 0.72 187. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2.42 142.
Lithuania 2.31 146. Samoa 2.94 121.
Luxembourg 0.64 189. San Marino 0.36 191.
Madagascar 23.59 17. Sao Tome and Principe 0.67 188.
Malawi 3.17 113. Saudi Arabia 8.76 63.
Malaysia 14.04 36. Senegal 5.49 81.
Maldives 1.19 174. Serbia 1.75 160.
Mali 2.31 146. Seychelles 2.76 128.
Malta 0.88 184. Sierra Leone 5.32 82.
Marshall Islands 2.69 133. Singapore 0.63 190.
Mauritania 9.01 62. Slovakia 0.95 182.
Mauritius 3.60 106. Slovenia 1.96 155.
Mexico 38.17 4. Solomon Islands 14.82 33.
Monaco 0.24 192. Somalia 25.09 14.
Mongolia 2.11 151. South Africa 9.14 61.
Montenegro 3.13 114. South Sudan 4.25 95.
Morocco 9.96 53. Spain 9.64 56.
Mozambique 34.61 7. Sri Lanka 5.92 77.
Myanmar 36.16 6. Sudan 10.27 51.
Namibia 5.68 79. Suriname 6.72 74.
Nauru 1.00 180. Sweden 2.72 132.
Nepal 2.57 138. Switzerland 1.02 179.
Netherlands 4.32 93. Syrian Arab Republic 12.24 44.
New Zealand 14.04 36. Tajikistan 2.47 140.
Nicaragua 21.76 21. Thailand 21.09 23.
Niger 2.16 149. Timor-Leste 7.79 67.
Nigeria 9.17 60. Togo 1.45 164.
North Macedonia 1.30 171. Tonga 3.77 103.
Norway 2.89 124. Trinidad and Tobago 2.98 119.
Oman 7.53 71. Tunisia 9.47 58.
Pakistan 26.45 11. Turkey 16.17 30.
Palau 2.21 148. Turkmenistan 1.33 169.
Panama 18.82 27. Tuvalu 1.42 166.
Papua New Guinea 26.30 12. Uganda 2.80 126.
Paraguay 1.68 161. Ukraine 4.02 98.
Peru 25.55 13. United Arab Emirates 4.97 85.
Philippines 46.86 1. United Kingdom 5.66 80.
Plurinational State of Bolivia 2.98 119. United Republic of Tanzania 16.08 31.
Poland 4.22 96. United States of America 22.47 20.
Portugal 5.32 82. Uruguay 4.80 88.
Qatar 1.15 176. Uzbekistan 1.52 163.
Republic of Congo 5.24 84. Vanuatu 10.90 48.
Republic of Korea 10.84 49. Viet Nam 24.39 15.
Republic of Moldova 1.33 169. Yemen 24.39 15.
Romania 3.33 111. Zambia 2.94 121.
Russian Federation 28.20 8. Zimbabwe 2.52 139.
Rwanda 2.69 133.
Saint Kitts and Nevis 2.33 145.
Only countries that are member states of the United Nations
Saint Lucia 2.45 141. are considered.
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The WorldRiskIndex 2023

Chapter · September 2023

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

Ami Carstensen, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft

The concept of the WorldRiskIndex

The calculation of the results

The results of the WorldRiskIndex

Socio-Economic Development Socio-Economic Deprivation

+ Gross National Income Per + Net Volume Of Official Develop-

Vulnerable Populations Due To Diseases And Epidemics

Figure 6: The Structure of the WorldRiskIndex

Lack Of Coping Capacities Lack Of Adaptive Capacities

Recent Societal Shocks Educaction Research

+ Years Lost Due To Unsafe + Children Without Third

+ Hospital Beds Per 1,000 Persons

+ Gross Fixed Capital Formation Per Capita (USD PPP)

Material Protection* Disaster Prepardness* Climate Change Mitigation*

Lack of Coping Lack of Adaptive

Chances and limits of the WorldRiskIndex

WELLER, D. (2022): Der WeltRisikoIndex 2022. In Bündnis

WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME (2019): The impact of school

Focus: Governance and civil society

WorldRiskReport WorldRiskReport WorldRiskReport

2011 2012 In cooperation with

Governance and Environmental Health and Healthcare The City as a

Focus: food security Focus: Logistics and infrastructure

Analysis and prospects 2017

WorldRiskReport 201 WorldRiskReport 2020 WorldRiskReport 2021 WorldRiskReport 2022

Water supply Forced Displacement Social Protection Digitalization

All WorldRiskReports are available to download at www.WorldRiskReport.org.

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