Risk and Uncertainties

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supplies

House
March 2021 -

My Browny

a .

Pay off table Browny Leleh

Supp lies
Demand 34 600 ,
45 ,
900 62 300 .

34 , 600 488 840 ,


3 81 490 , 225 690
,

45 , 900488 , 840 775 860 , 6 20 060 ,

62 ,
300 488 , 840 775 860 ,
1 , 192 ,
420

Total UVC 3 50 1 80
= 4 20 + + UCM =
34 90-9 50
.
. . .
.

= 9 .
50 =
25 .
40

Total FC = 330 000 ,


+ 60 ,
000

= 390 000 ,

Demand 34 , 600, supplies at : RM

34 600 , : Net profit = <25 40 x34 , 600)


.
-
390 000 .
: 488 , 840

45 900 ;, Net profit : (25 40x34 . , 600) -


(11 , 300 x 9 . 50)-390 000
,
= 381 .
490

62 ,
300 : Net profit = 125 40x34 600)
.
,
-
>27 700x9 50)-390 000
,
.

,
= 225 , 690

Demand 45 , 900, supplies at : RM

34 600 , : Net profit = <25 40 x34 , 600)


.
-
390 000 .
=
488 ,
840

45 900 ;, Net profit : (25 40 . x 45 ,


900)-390 ,
000 = 775 ,
860

62 ,
300 : Net profit = (25 40x45 900)
.
,
-
(16 400x9 50)-390 000
.
.

,
=
620 . 060

Demand 62 300
, supplies at : RM

34 600 , : Net profit = <25 40 x34 , 600)


.
-
390 000 .
=
488 840 ,

45 900 ;, Net profit : (25 40 . x 45 ,


900)-390 ,
000 =
775 , 860

62 ,
300 : Net profit = (25 40 x62 .
,
300) -
390 000 ,
=
1 , 192 ,
420
Pay off table Browny Lava

Supplies
Demand 30 200
, 4 8 ,
100 5 0 , 400

30 200 , 4 17 , 420 277 800 , 259 860 ,

4 8 ,
100 4/7 , 420 , 018
813 795 070 ,

50 , 400 417 420 , 8 13 018 , 863 848 ,

Total UVC =
3 . 80 + 2 . 90 + 1 .
10 UCM = 29 90
.
-
7 . 80

= . 80
7 I 22 . 10

Total FC =
210 ,
000 + 40 , 000

= 250 000 ,

Demand 30 200
,
·
supplies at : RM

30200 Net profit :


(30 , 200 x 22 10 .
/-250 , 000 = 417 420.

48 100
,
; Net profit :
(30 ,
200 x 22 . 10) -
(17 900 ,
x 7 801-250 000
.

,
= 277 ,
800

50 , 400 : Net profit = (30 200 ,


x 22 10) . -
(20 200 ,
x 7 .
80/ -
250 000
,
=
259 ,
860

Demand 48 , 100 supplies at : RM

30200 Net profit =


(30 200 .
x 22 . 10) -
250 000 ,
I
4 /7 , 420

48 100
,
; Net profit : (48 100 ,
X 22 . 10)-250 ,
000 =
813 .
010

50 , 400
Net profit = (48 100x22 10) ,
. -
(2 300
,
x 7 .
80 /- 250 ,
000 =
. 070
795

Demand 50 400
, supplies at : RM

30200 : Net profit :


(30 200 ,
x 22 .
10/-250 ,
000 =
417 420,

48 100,
; Net profit : (48 , 100 x 22 . 10) -

250 000 ,
=
813 010 ,

50 , 400 : Net profit = (50 , 400 x 22 . 10) -


250 , 000 =
863 840 ,
Leleh Browny Lava
Browny

Supplies 3 4 , 600 45 , 900 62 , 300 30 200 , 48 , 100 50 , 400

Maximin 488 840 ,


381 . 490255 690417 420277 800
,
.
, 259 860 ,

MaximaX 488 , 840775 860 , 1 , 192 .


420 417 420 , 813 010
, 863 840 ,

Minimax 703 580 ,


416 560263, 150, 446 420 , 139 620 , 157 , 560

minimax regret table -

Browny Leleh

supplies 34 600 , 45 , 400 62 300 ,

O 107 , 350 263 150 ,

1488 840 ,
-
488 840/1488 840-381 , 490)
,
. (488 840 ,
-

225 6906 ,

28 7 000 ,
O 15 5 800 ,

(775 860 ,
-
488 , 860)(775 ,
860 -
775 . 860)(775 ,
860- 620 060) ,

703 580 ,
416 , 560 G

(1 192 420-488 860)


, . , (1 192 420
, ,
-
775 860) , (1 192 420
. .
-
1 . 192 , 420)

minimax regret table -

Browny Laug

supplies 3 0 200
, 4 8 , 100 50 400 ,

G 139 628 , 15 7 , 560

3417 420 ,
-
417 , 420) (417 420 277 800)
.
-
, (417 420 ,
-

259 , 860)

395 540 ,
O 17 , 948

1813 010 ,
-
417 , 420) 1813 010-813 010)
, , (813 , 010 -
795 070) ,

4 46 , 428 50 , 830 O

1863 840 417 420) 1863 840 813 010) 1863 840 863 840)
-
- -
, , , ,
.
,

Maximin should Browny Leleh and


.
b Company produce 34 600
-

Lava
30 200
. Browny

Maximax-company should produce 62 ,


300 Browny Leleh and

Lava
50 , 400 Browny
minimax -

company should produce 62 , 300 Browny Leleh and

. 100
48 Browny Lava
/unit

SP
October 2020 -
Set A

Question 1 Luxury and Classy


-

a .

Payoff table

Demand 800 1 , 600 2 , 300 2 , 800

900 700
Selling price 500 4 00

Unit variable 340 4 13 , 108 541 100 , 333 100 ,


133 ,
100

cost 390 373 100 ,


461 100 , 2 18 , 100 (6 , 900)

420 344 100 ,


4 /3 , 100 144 100 , (90 , 900)

301 100 317 100 II , 100 (258 900)


480 ,
, ,

workings :

Demand at 800 unit. Selling price at RM900


.
Net profit is :

=
(900-340)x800 -
34 , 900 = 4 13 ,
100

= (900 -

390) x800 -
34 , 900 : 373 ,
100

=
1900-420)x800 -
34 ,
900 =
349 , 100

=
(400 -
480) < 800 -
34 900 , = 301 , 100

Demand at 1 600 unit RM700


,
. Selling price at
.
Net profit is :

=
(700-340) x 1 , 600 -
34 , 900 I 5 41 ,
100

= (700 -

390) x 1 , 600 -
34 , 900 : 4 61 , 100

=
(700 -
420) x1 600 ,
-
34 ,
900 = 413 , 100

=
(700 -
480) < 1, 600 -
34 900 , = 317 , 100

Demand at 2 , 300 unit. 500


Selling price at RM
.
Net profit is :

= (500 -

340)x2 300 , -
34 , 900 I 3 33 .
100

= (500 -

390)x2 , 300 -
34 , 900 : 218 , 100

=
(500 -
420)x2 , 300 -
34 ,
900 = 149 , 100

=
(500 -
480) < 2 , 300 -
34 900 , = 11 , 100

Demand at 2 , 800 400


unit. Selling price at RM
·
Net profit is :

= (400 -

340) x 2 , 800 -
34 , 900 I 133 ,
100

= (400 -

390) x 2 , 800 -
34 , 900 :
(6 900) ,

=
(400 -
420) x 2, 800 -
34 ,
900 - (90 900) ,

=
(400 -
480) /2 , 800 -
34 400 , = (258 , 400/
b .

900 700 500 400


Selling price
Maximin 301 ,
100 317 ,
100 1I , 100 ( 258 900) ,

Maximax 4 /3 ,
100 541 , 100 333 100 .
133 100
,

minimax regret 128 , 000 O 306 000 , 5 7 6 000,

Minimax regret

SP 900 700 500 400

128 , 000 G 2 08 ,
000 408 000 .

( 541 100 -

413 100) (541 100 ,


-
541 1001 , (541 100
,
-
333 100) , (541 100.133 100)
, ,
, ,

88 000 G 24 3 , 000 4 68 000


, ,

1461 100 ,
-
373 100) , (461 100 ,
-
461 , 100) (461 100 - 218 100)
, , (461 00 ,
-
(6 , 900))

64 000 O 2 64 , 000 50 4 000 ,


,

1413 ,
100 -
349 100) , (413 ,
100 -
413 100) , C 413 100-149 100)
, , (413 100 ,
-
190 , 900))

16 000 . O 306 000 , 5 76 , 000

(317 100-301
, , 100) (317 100
,
-

317 , 100) (317 100


,
-
11 , 100) (317 100 1258 9006)
,
-
,

Minimax 128 000 ,


g 306 000 , > 76 , 000
5

Justification :

i) If decision based on maximin :

Company should set SP at RM700 with highest profit of RM317 100 .

ii) If decision based on maximax :

Company should set SP at RM700 with highest profit of RM 541 100 ,

iii) If decision based on minimax


regret :

company should set SP at RM700 when opportunity loss is at O


I

supplies
December 2019 Cheesy Salad
-

a .

Pay-off table

supplies

Demand 450 550 650750

450 3 , 775 3 225 .


. 6752
2 , 125

550 3 775 ,
4 , 725 4 , 175 3 625
,

650 3 , 775 4 , 725 5 675 ,


. 125
5

750 3 775 .
4 725 , 5 675
, 6 625
.

UVC = 2 .
50 + 1 80 +
.
0 . 60 + 0 40 + 0 20
. .

= 5 . 50

Ucm = 15 -
5 50
.

= 9 . 50

Demand 450. supplies at : RM

450 : Net profit = (9 50 .


x 450) -
500 - 3 . 775

550 ; Net profit =


(9 50 x 450) -(100x5 50)
.
.
-
500 = 3 ,
225

650 :
Netprofit = 19 .
50 x 450) -
(200 x 5 50) .
-
500 : . 675
2

750 : Net profit = 19 50x450)-(300x5 50) -500


. . = 2 , 125

Demand 550. supplies at : RM

450 : Net profit = 19 50 . x 450) -


500
=
3 775
,

550 ; Net profit =


19 50x550) -500
. I 4
, 725

650 : (9 50x550) -(100X5 50) 500 4 175


Netprofit
=
=
-
.
. ,

750 : Netprofit =
19 50 x550) -1200
. x 5 50)
.
-
500 = 3 615
.

Demand RM
650. supplies at :

450 : Net profit = 19 .


50 x 450) -

500 = 3 775
.

550 ; 19 50 550) -500 725


Net profit = . x I 4,

650 :
Netprofit = (9 50x650) .
-
500 =
5 675
,

750 : Net profit 19 50 x650) (100 x 5 50) 500 , 125


5
-
= .
- .
I
RM
Demand 150. supplies at :

450 : Net profit = (4 50 .


x 450) -

500 - 3 775.

550 ; Net profit = (9 50 . x 550) -


500 = 4
. 725

650 : Net profit = (9 50 . x650) -


500 = 5 675
,

750 i Net profit = (9 50 . x 750) -


500 = 6 625
.

supplies 450 550 650 750

Maximin 3 775
, 3 225 ,
. 6752 125
2 ,

Maximax 3 775
,
4 , 725 5 675 ,
6 ,
625

Minimax . 850
2 1 , 900 1 ,
100 1 , 650

Minimax regret table

Supl . 45 O 550 650 750

8 550 1 , 100 1 , 650

13
, 775 -
3 775) , , 775
13 -
3 ,
225/ (3 , - 2 675)
775 . (3 175
,
-
1 125C
.

950 O 550 1 , 100

(4 725
,
-

3 775)
. 14 725
,
-
4 , 725( 34 725 ,
-
4 . 175/14 725 ,
-
3 6256
,

1 ,
900 450 O 550

15 675
,
-
3 775/
. 15 675
.
-
4, 725)(5 . 675 -
5 675)(5 675
,
,
-
5 125)
,

2 , 850 1 , 900 950 O

, 625
16 -
3 775) , 16 625
,
-
4 , 725/ 16 625 .
-

5 675)16 625
, .
-
6 6256
.

1 850. 1 , 900 1 , 100 1 , 650

b . i) Maximin-produce 450 boxes with highest profit of RM 3 , 775

-
this approach suitable for pessimist
ii) Maximax-produce 750 boxes highest profit of RM6 625 .

-
this approach suitable for optimist or risk seeker

iii) Minimax regret -


produce 650 with profit of RM 1 100 ,

-
this approach suitable for risk neutral

decision maker
iv) Expected value

Supplies
9t :

3) 0 1)
450 : Net profit = (3 775
,
x0 . 4) + (3 775
,
x 0 .
+ (3 775
.
x 0 .
2) + (3 775
,
x .

E RM 3 775
,

550 :
Netprofit = (3 225.
x 0 . 4) + (4 725 ,
x 0 . 3) + 14 725
,
x 0 2) . + 34 725,
x 0 . 1)

=
RM 4 , 125

650 : Net profit = (2 675 x0 4)


,
. + 34 175 ,
x 0 . 3) + (5 675, X 0 .
2) + >5 675
,
x 0 . 1)

=
RM 4 , 025

4) 3) 35 125 2) >6 625 0 1)


Net profit (3 625 0 x
750 ; =
(2 125,
x 0 . + ,
x 0 .
+
,
x . + .
.

=
RM 3 625 ,

-
should produce 550 boxes with profit RM4 125 ,
July 2021 -
The Royal Nasi Arab

a .

Payoff table

Customers' selling price


Satisfaction R M95 50 .
RM75 .
50 RM55 . 50

Excellent 423 475387 , ,


250386 , 075

Good 294 905 ,


21 3 , 655 152 ,
230

Poor 12 , 320 7
. 940 3 .
410

variable cost for SP :

R M95 . 50 ; RM340 600 ,


+ RM260 400 ,
+
RM235 , 300 = RM836 ,
300

RM 75 .
50 ; RM420 100 + RM390 500 , ,
+ RM260
. 000 : RM1 ,
070 , 600

RM 55 . 50 ; RM550 700 ,
+ RM420 500 ,
+ RM295 000 ,
= RM 1 , 266 , 200

working :

selling price at RM95 50 .


·
profits :

Excellent = (2 860 , ,
900-836 300 ,
-
330 ,
700) x 25 % = RM423 . 475

Good : (1 620 700 , ,


-
836 . 300 -
330 700) ,
x 65 % = RM 294 :
905

Poor = (1 290 200 , ,


-

836 300 ,
-
330 700) ,
x 10 % = RM 12 , 320

at RM75 50
Selling price .
· profits :

Excellent = (2 990 , ,
400 -
1 , 070 600 ,
-
370 800) ,
x 25 % = RM387 ,
250

Good : (1 770 100


, ,
-
1 , 070 600 ,
-
370 800) ,
x 65 % = RM 213 , 655

Poor = (1 520 800 , ,


-
1 , 070 ,
600 -
370 ,
800) x 10 % = RM 7 . 940

Selling price at RM55 50 .


· profits :

Excellent = (3 200 600 , ,


-
1 ,
266 200 ,
-
390 ,
1006 x25 % : RM386 , 075

Good : (1 ,
890 ,
500 -
1 ,
266 ,
200 -
390 100) ,
x 65 % = RM . 230
152

Poor = (1 690 400 -


1 , 266 200 - 390 100) ,
x 10 % = RM 3 .
410
, , ,
selling price
R M95 50 . RM75 50 . RM55 50 .

Maximin 12 , 320 7 ,
440 3
.410
Maxima X 423 475 ,
38 7 250 , 586 ,
075

Minimax reg
. O 81 250 .
142 , 675

Customers' Selling price


Satisfaction R M 95 50 .
RM 7 5 .
50 R M 55 5 O .

Excellent G 36 , 225 3 T , 400

1423 475
.
-
423 .
475)(423 475 .
-
387 250)(423 475
. .
-
386 075(,

Good O 8 1 ,
250 142 ,
675

3294 . 905 -
294 905)(294
, . 905 -
213 655)(294. . 905 -
152 230),

Poor O 4 , 380 8 , 910

3 12 , 320 -
12 , 320) (12 , 320 - 7 . 940) (12 , 320 -
3 410)
,

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