Risk and Uncertainties
Risk and Uncertainties
Risk and Uncertainties
House
March 2021 -
My Browny
a .
Supp lies
Demand 34 600 ,
45 ,
900 62 300 .
62 ,
300 488 , 840 775 860 ,
1 , 192 ,
420
Total UVC 3 50 1 80
= 4 20 + + UCM =
34 90-9 50
.
. . .
.
= 9 .
50 =
25 .
40
= 390 000 ,
62 ,
300 : Net profit = 125 40x34 600)
.
,
-
>27 700x9 50)-390 000
,
.
,
= 225 , 690
62 ,
300 : Net profit = (25 40x45 900)
.
,
-
(16 400x9 50)-390 000
.
.
,
=
620 . 060
Demand 62 300
, supplies at : RM
62 ,
300 : Net profit = (25 40 x62 .
,
300) -
390 000 ,
=
1 , 192 ,
420
Pay off table Browny Lava
Supplies
Demand 30 200
, 4 8 ,
100 5 0 , 400
4 8 ,
100 4/7 , 420 , 018
813 795 070 ,
Total UVC =
3 . 80 + 2 . 90 + 1 .
10 UCM = 29 90
.
-
7 . 80
= . 80
7 I 22 . 10
Total FC =
210 ,
000 + 40 , 000
= 250 000 ,
Demand 30 200
,
·
supplies at : RM
48 100
,
; Net profit :
(30 ,
200 x 22 . 10) -
(17 900 ,
x 7 801-250 000
.
,
= 277 ,
800
48 100
,
; Net profit : (48 100 ,
X 22 . 10)-250 ,
000 =
813 .
010
50 , 400
Net profit = (48 100x22 10) ,
. -
(2 300
,
x 7 .
80 /- 250 ,
000 =
. 070
795
Demand 50 400
, supplies at : RM
48 100,
; Net profit : (48 , 100 x 22 . 10) -
250 000 ,
=
813 010 ,
Browny Leleh
1488 840 ,
-
488 840/1488 840-381 , 490)
,
. (488 840 ,
-
225 6906 ,
28 7 000 ,
O 15 5 800 ,
(775 860 ,
-
488 , 860)(775 ,
860 -
775 . 860)(775 ,
860- 620 060) ,
703 580 ,
416 , 560 G
Browny Laug
supplies 3 0 200
, 4 8 , 100 50 400 ,
3417 420 ,
-
417 , 420) (417 420 277 800)
.
-
, (417 420 ,
-
259 , 860)
395 540 ,
O 17 , 948
1813 010 ,
-
417 , 420) 1813 010-813 010)
, , (813 , 010 -
795 070) ,
4 46 , 428 50 , 830 O
1863 840 417 420) 1863 840 813 010) 1863 840 863 840)
-
- -
, , , ,
.
,
Lava
30 200
. Browny
Lava
50 , 400 Browny
minimax -
. 100
48 Browny Lava
/unit
SP
October 2020 -
Set A
a .
Payoff table
900 700
Selling price 500 4 00
workings :
=
(900-340)x800 -
34 , 900 = 4 13 ,
100
= (900 -
390) x800 -
34 , 900 : 373 ,
100
=
1900-420)x800 -
34 ,
900 =
349 , 100
=
(400 -
480) < 800 -
34 900 , = 301 , 100
=
(700-340) x 1 , 600 -
34 , 900 I 5 41 ,
100
= (700 -
390) x 1 , 600 -
34 , 900 : 4 61 , 100
=
(700 -
420) x1 600 ,
-
34 ,
900 = 413 , 100
=
(700 -
480) < 1, 600 -
34 900 , = 317 , 100
= (500 -
340)x2 300 , -
34 , 900 I 3 33 .
100
= (500 -
390)x2 , 300 -
34 , 900 : 218 , 100
=
(500 -
420)x2 , 300 -
34 ,
900 = 149 , 100
=
(500 -
480) < 2 , 300 -
34 900 , = 11 , 100
= (400 -
340) x 2 , 800 -
34 , 900 I 133 ,
100
= (400 -
390) x 2 , 800 -
34 , 900 :
(6 900) ,
=
(400 -
420) x 2, 800 -
34 ,
900 - (90 900) ,
=
(400 -
480) /2 , 800 -
34 400 , = (258 , 400/
b .
Maximax 4 /3 ,
100 541 , 100 333 100 .
133 100
,
Minimax regret
128 , 000 G 2 08 ,
000 408 000 .
( 541 100 -
1461 100 ,
-
373 100) , (461 100 ,
-
461 , 100) (461 100 - 218 100)
, , (461 00 ,
-
(6 , 900))
1413 ,
100 -
349 100) , (413 ,
100 -
413 100) , C 413 100-149 100)
, , (413 100 ,
-
190 , 900))
(317 100-301
, , 100) (317 100
,
-
Justification :
supplies
December 2019 Cheesy Salad
-
a .
Pay-off table
supplies
550 3 775 ,
4 , 725 4 , 175 3 625
,
750 3 775 .
4 725 , 5 675
, 6 625
.
UVC = 2 .
50 + 1 80 +
.
0 . 60 + 0 40 + 0 20
. .
= 5 . 50
Ucm = 15 -
5 50
.
= 9 . 50
650 :
Netprofit = 19 .
50 x 450) -
(200 x 5 50) .
-
500 : . 675
2
750 : Netprofit =
19 50 x550) -1200
. x 5 50)
.
-
500 = 3 615
.
Demand RM
650. supplies at :
500 = 3 775
.
650 :
Netprofit = (9 50x650) .
-
500 =
5 675
,
500 - 3 775.
Maximin 3 775
, 3 225 ,
. 6752 125
2 ,
Maximax 3 775
,
4 , 725 5 675 ,
6 ,
625
Minimax . 850
2 1 , 900 1 ,
100 1 , 650
13
, 775 -
3 775) , , 775
13 -
3 ,
225/ (3 , - 2 675)
775 . (3 175
,
-
1 125C
.
(4 725
,
-
3 775)
. 14 725
,
-
4 , 725( 34 725 ,
-
4 . 175/14 725 ,
-
3 6256
,
1 ,
900 450 O 550
15 675
,
-
3 775/
. 15 675
.
-
4, 725)(5 . 675 -
5 675)(5 675
,
,
-
5 125)
,
, 625
16 -
3 775) , 16 625
,
-
4 , 725/ 16 625 .
-
5 675)16 625
, .
-
6 6256
.
-
this approach suitable for pessimist
ii) Maximax-produce 750 boxes highest profit of RM6 625 .
-
this approach suitable for optimist or risk seeker
-
this approach suitable for risk neutral
decision maker
iv) Expected value
Supplies
9t :
3) 0 1)
450 : Net profit = (3 775
,
x0 . 4) + (3 775
,
x 0 .
+ (3 775
.
x 0 .
2) + (3 775
,
x .
E RM 3 775
,
550 :
Netprofit = (3 225.
x 0 . 4) + (4 725 ,
x 0 . 3) + 14 725
,
x 0 2) . + 34 725,
x 0 . 1)
=
RM 4 , 125
=
RM 4 , 025
=
RM 3 625 ,
-
should produce 550 boxes with profit RM4 125 ,
July 2021 -
The Royal Nasi Arab
a .
Payoff table
Poor 12 , 320 7
. 940 3 .
410
RM 75 .
50 ; RM420 100 + RM390 500 , ,
+ RM260
. 000 : RM1 ,
070 , 600
RM 55 . 50 ; RM550 700 ,
+ RM420 500 ,
+ RM295 000 ,
= RM 1 , 266 , 200
working :
Excellent = (2 860 , ,
900-836 300 ,
-
330 ,
700) x 25 % = RM423 . 475
836 300 ,
-
330 700) ,
x 10 % = RM 12 , 320
at RM75 50
Selling price .
· profits :
Excellent = (2 990 , ,
400 -
1 , 070 600 ,
-
370 800) ,
x 25 % = RM387 ,
250
Good : (1 ,
890 ,
500 -
1 ,
266 ,
200 -
390 100) ,
x 65 % = RM . 230
152
Maximin 12 , 320 7 ,
440 3
.410
Maxima X 423 475 ,
38 7 250 , 586 ,
075
Minimax reg
. O 81 250 .
142 , 675
1423 475
.
-
423 .
475)(423 475 .
-
387 250)(423 475
. .
-
386 075(,
Good O 8 1 ,
250 142 ,
675
3294 . 905 -
294 905)(294
, . 905 -
213 655)(294. . 905 -
152 230),
3 12 , 320 -
12 , 320) (12 , 320 - 7 . 940) (12 , 320 -
3 410)
,