Understanding Market Structure
Understanding Market Structure
Understanding Market Structure
TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS
TABLE OF CONTENT
07 Indicators .............................................................................35
This is when the price keeps on making a series of higher highs and higher
lows, it indicates a clear movement to the upside.
Bullish Trend
Bullish Trend
The bull trend is depicted by higher highs and higher lows. The trend
will continue in that direction until a lower low is printed by the asset
price. The trend begins to show signs of weakness when it fails to
print and higher high.
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Bearish Trend
Bearish Trend
The bear trend is the price action of lower lows and lower highs. The
bear trend will continue to fall as long as lower highs continue to
print, once a higher high comes into the price, the trend will end. The
sign that the trend may be reversing is price beginning to print higher
lows or equal lows.
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Sideways Trend
Sideways Trend
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To analyze how assess prices move, there will be a need for a sort of way
to look at the past and current price behavior. The first tool that a trader
using technical analysis needs to get familiar with is the chart. A chart is
just a graphic depiction of the price of a currency pair over a certain time
period.
It depicts the trading activity that occurs over the course of one trade
period, whether that be 1 minute, 4 hours, a day, a week or a month.
Any financial asset with historical price data can be represented
graphically for analysis.
1. Candlestick chart
2. Bar chart
3. Line chart
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Candlestick chart
A simple line chart draws a straight line from one closing price to the next.
We can visualize the overall price development of a currency pair over time by
connecting its values with a line.Although the line chart is easy to understand, it
might not give the trader much information about price behavior over the
course of the period.
According to certain traders, the closing level is more significant than the open,
high, or low. Price changes throughout a trading session are disregarded by
focusing solely on the closure.
Line chart
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The open, high, low, and close prices of an asset during a specific time period
are represented graphically in a bar chart. The high and low prices for the
specifiedperiod are shown by the vertical line on a price bar.The size of bars
can change from one bar to the next, over a range of bars, or both.
The vertical bar's bottom represents the lowest transacted price for that
time period, while its top represents the highest price paid.The vertical bar
itself displays the total trading range for the currency pair. The bars grow
bigger as the price swings become more erratic. The bars get smaller as the
price swings become quieter. This is an example of a bar chart:
Bar chart
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Support and resistance levels are like the floor and the roof of a building. A ball
thrown to the roof is expected to drop and a ball bounced on the floor is also
expected to shoot up so consider the roof to the resistance and the floor as the
support. Support and resistance levels tell you if the price of anasset is likely to
stop moving in its prior direction and to start moving in the opposite direction in
the future. Knowing where an asset price may stop and turn around helps
traders to enter and exit their positions at the most profitable times.
Support
Support is a price level at which an asset price tends to stop moving down,
then turns around and starts climbing. Support levels indicate where
there will be a surplus of buyers.
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Resistance is a price level at which an asset tends to stop moving up, then
turns around and starts falling.
Resistance level indicates where there will be a surplus of sellers.
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A break and retest strategy occurs when an asset makes a bullish or bearish
breakout and then retests the previous resistance or support and then
continues moving in the original trend.
The Breakout and retest method is one of the most setups that when identified,
can be very profitable and to understand this method, one should know the
basics of support and resistance.
Bullish Structure
Bearish Structure
Example 1: EURUSD 1D
The strategy helps you avoid false breakouts. Most forex traders who fall for
the false breakout often make their trades on the first breakout candlestick.
But when you use the breakout and retest strategy, you avoid false breakouts
and enter a newly established trend.
The strategy helps you get into a trade at the best positions. The breakout and
retest strategy offers you a good position to get into a trade. After the first
breakout, many traders chase the breakout by “getting into the trade quickly”
before the price goes too far. But what they’re actually doing is getting into the
trade at the worst time because they’re either buying at a higher price or selling
at a lower price. A typical example is in the chart below.
The retracement is not always complete. Additionally, there are instances when
the retracement does not reach the point where the price made its breakout.
Traders may become perplexed by this position as some wait in vain for a
complete retracement while others are uncertain of what to do next. If this
happens to you, put your order on the first candlestick that appears following
the initial retracement you observe. You would have made a wise trade if that
retracement turned out to be the only one. You would still have entered the
trade at a decent price even if the retest ultimately fails
The retest may never come. The retest doesn’t always come, causing traders
setting up the breakout and retest strategy to lose out on potentially major
moves.
The retest sometimes gets faked out. This occurs when the price does not
retest and bounce off the freshly formed level but instead goes back to the
level it first broke out from. Due to the fact that the first candlestick following
the retest typically serves as confirmation that the newly created level will
hold, we advise you to only initiate the trade on this candlestick.
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Chart patterns are natural pricing patterns that have the shape of natural
objects, such as triangle patterns, wedge patterns, and so on. Due to
natural occurrences, these patternskeep repeating over time. These
recurring patterns are used by traders to forecast themarket.
Chart patterns are categorized into two primary types based on the trend
direction.
Bull Flag
Bear Flag
Bull Rectangle
AccendingTriangle
DecendingTriangle
Symmetric Triangle
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The wedge pattern is a trend reversal chart pattern with a price structure
that looks like a wedge. A Wedge has a larger outer segment and a smaller
outer section. It's also a natural pattern because it shows pricing behavior
in its natural state.
Bull Flag
The most popular and sophisticated chart pattern is the flag chart. This chart
pattern's profound psychology makes it extremely useful for predicting the
direction of any asset inthe financial market.
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Bear Flag
Bull Rectangle
Bullish rectangles are continuation patterns that occur when a price pauses
during a strong bullish trend and temporarily bounces between two parallel
levels before the trend continues.
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Accending Triangle
Bullish Triangles are continuation patterns that form when a price pauses in
the middle of a strong bullish trend and temporarily bounces between two
parallel levels before continuing the trend.
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Decending Triangle
Symmetric Triangle
Reversal patterns are those chart formations that signal that the ongoing trend
is about to change course. If a reversal chart pattern forms during an uptrend,
it hints that the trend will reverse and that the price will head down soon.
Double Top
Double Bottom
Rising Wedge
Falling Wedge
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Double Top
The double bottom is a bullish reversal chart pattern indicating the formation
of two consecutive lows in the support zone. A bullish trend reversal occurs
following the neckline breakout.
In this pattern, the neckline is created at the last price swing after two price
bottoms. The prior trend to the double bottom pattern should be bearish, and
it must form at the end of the bearish trend.
Double Bottom
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The head and shoulder pattern is a reversal chart pattern that consists of three
price movements. The largest price swing is referred to as the head, and the
two waves to the left and right of the head are referred to as the shoulders. It is
called the head and shoulder pattern for this reason.
It is a recurring chart pattern that occurs following a bearish trend reversal in
the market.
Rising Wedge
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and
contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. If signals a
reversal if found in a bullish market.
Falling Wedge
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Candlestick Patterns
Let’s take a look at each type of candlestick and what they mean in terms of
price action.
Candlestick Patterns
HAMMAR
INVERTED HAMMAR
Candlestick Patterns
BULLISH ENGULFING
BEARISH ENGULFING
Candlestick Patterns
BEARISH HAMARI
Candlestick Patterns
HAMARI CROSS
ENGULFING CANDLESTICKS
Candlestick Patterns
PIERCING LINE
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07) indicators
LAGGING INDICATOR)
LEADING INDICATOR)
MACD
STOCHASTIC
this type of moving average gives more weightage to the price of recent
sessions. It can be calculated by taking the average of few last few sessions in
which more weightage will be given to recent sessions.
Traders usually use EMA when they analyse in a small time frame
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In Above shown image, you can see the moving average of 20 sessions is
applied.
The trend of the market is uptrend and moving average is acting as a
support to market.
Market is trading above the moving average which means market is in a
uptrend.
One may also initiate trade in a long side after moving average holds the
market above it.
In the above case moving average of 20 sessions. We can customise it as
per our personal preference and enough back testing. It may vary from
instrument to instrument and can also vary from, which time frame we are
using to analyse the instrument.
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Breakout of moving average occur when market breaches the level of moving
average and hold the market after breaching the level. In above case moving
average was first acting as a support but when market breach that supporting
level and hold after the breaching it, the moving average starts working as a
resistance level. and then the trend get changed.
By using two or more moving average at a same time one can apply moving
average crossover strategy. Two moving averages of different numbers can be
applied on a same chart.
For example we took two moving averages i.e; 13MA & 21MA
13MA will be the faster moving average and 21MA will be the slower moving
average.
If fast moving average will cross slow moving average from below, it will be
preferred to take a long position and vice versa.
There are two lines shown in above image white line represents MACD line and
red line represents signal line. When signal line crosses MACD line from down
side, it indicates a buy signal. And when signal line crosses MACD line from
upside, it indicated a sell signal
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As you can see in first MACD bearish crossover, a downtrend has started and
the crossover confirms the strength of the downtrend. After this crossover,
market act bearish for some sessions.
After this market finds a support level and starts a new uptrend and soon after
the new trend started, MACD indicated a bullish crossover, which shows the
strength of new uptrend.
Average True Range (ATR) is the average of true ranges over the specified
period. ATR measures volatility, taking into account any gaps in the price
movement. Typically, the ATR calculation is based on 14 periods, which can be
intraday, daily, weekly, or monthly. To measure recent volatility, use a shorter
average, such as 2 to 10 periods. For longer-term volatility, use 20 to 50
periods
In the figure shown above, the value of Average true range is 292.6. which
means based on past 14 days data the average movement of market is 292.92.
This data helps you to place your stop loss while placing a trade.
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2. Diversification
4. Money management
Investing can be challenging. Even experienced investors who try to time the
market to buy at the most opportune moments can come up short.
In effect, this strategy eliminates the effort required to attempt to time the
market to buy at the best prices.
Risk management
2. Diversification
EQUITIES (STOCKS)
FIXED INCOME (BONDS)
COMMODITIES
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Risk management
The risk/reward ratio marks the prospective reward an investor can earn for
every dollar they risk on an investment. Many investors use risk/reward ratios
to compare the expected returns of an investment with the amount of risk
they must undertake to earn these returns. Consider the following example: an
investment with a risk-reward ratio of 1:7 suggests that an investor is willing to
risk $1, for the prospect of earning $7. Alternatively, a risk/reward ratio of 1:3
signals that an investor should expect to invest $1, for the prospect of earning
$3 on their investment.
Traders often use this approach to plan which trades to take, and the ratio is
calculated by dividing the amount trader stands to lose if the price of an asset
moves in an unexpected direction (the risk) by the amount of profit the trader
expects to have made when the position is closed (the reward).
Capital :- 1000$
Risk:Reward :- 1:3
Risking 1% to get a reward of 3%
Risk management
4. Money management
Position sizing is setting the correct amount of units to buy or sell a financial
instrument. It is one of the most crucial skills in a financial trader’s skill
set.First and foremost, traders are “risk managers“, so before you start trading
real money, you should be able to do position size calculations in your sleep.
Finding the position size that will keep you within your risk comfort level is
relatively easyand we use the phrase “relatively easy” loosely here.
Depending on the currency pair you are trading and your account
denomination (dollars, euros, pounds, etc.), a step or two needs to be added to
the calculation.
Now, before we can get our math on, we need five pieces of information:
Risk management
4. Money management
Assume a new trader deposited USD 5000 in his account to start trading,
now the first step is to calculate the risk percentage that is, how can is he
risking per trade.
Using his account balance and the percentage amount he wants to risk, we
can calculate the dollar amount risked. Let’s say he wants to risk 1% each
trade.
Next, we divide the amount risked by the stop to find the value per pip. In
this case, he is taking a trade with a stop loss of 20 pips on EURUSD. (USD
50)/(20 pips) = USD 2.5/pip
Lastly, we multiply the value per pip by a known unit/pip value ratio of
EUR/USD. In this case, with 10k units (or one mini lot), each pip move is
worth USD 1.
USD 2.5 per pip * [(10k units of EUR/USD)/(USD 1 per pip)] = 25,000 units of
EUR/USD
So, the trader should put on 25,000 units of EUR/USD on the trade if he
wants to risk 1% that is USD 50 on his current trade setup.
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Risk management
Sometimes, trading really gets tough.You make your trade, and you think
you’ve got everything in place. It all looks good.Then it tanks. Even though
you’ve got a system and an approach to trading that has brought you an
income, and a career in the markets, you still do the one thing that you know
you should never do. You’re trading according to emotions rather than logic
and strategy. This can never work and will see you suffering even more losses
as time goes on. You will forget any entry and exit strategies you may have
developed. These may have served you well in the past and brought you
security. But you’ll forget these when you revenge trade. All thoughts of risk
management will be banished, as your brain starts to consider how to beat the
system. It’s important to remember that you can have a very bad day if you let
revenge trading take over. You will end up trading ‘how you feel’, and that
means you are doing nothing more than gambling with money.
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Psychology of Trading
While the odds of becoming a successful day trader may be stacked against
you, there are still thousands of day traders making a full-time living utilizing
their own unique strategies. All of these strategies are different from each
other, some varying drastically and others minimally. However, the one thing
most successful traders have in common is that they trade their own strategy.
Rarely will you ask a day trader how they make a living in the stock market and
get the response, “I just follow that guy’s alerts.” Obvious? Maybe. Yet, we are
still wired to chase instant gratification. Regardless of the fact that most
people know learning how to trade takes time and hard work, there is still an
allure to the idea that you may be able to make $X,XXX/day by following
someone else' strategy.
Nobody wants to wait years to become a successful day trader and this
impatience leads some traders to look for the fast track to success. Often
times, this “fast track” is disguised as well-marketed services that boast about
how profitable their members are from stock alerts.