6-Portfolio Management
6-Portfolio Management
6-Portfolio Management
Overview
Portfolio prospective on investing
1- Portfolio diversification helps investors avoid disastrous investment outcomes
2- Portfolio reduce risk as it generally offer equivalent expected returns with lower
overall volatility
3- Portfolio affects risk more than returns
4- Portfolio composition improves trade-off between risk and return because lower level of risk
achieved for the same level of returns
5- Portfolios are not necessary downside protection
6- Modern portfolio theory is the analysis of rational portfolio choices based on the efficient
use of risk, the main conclusion of MPT is that investors should not only hold portfolios but
should also focus on correlation between individual securities
Investment clients
1- Individual investors
2- Institutional investors
Defined benefit pension plans
Endowments and foundations
Banks
Insurance companies
Investment companies
Sovereign wealth funds
Asset allocation
Security analysis
Portfolio construction
Pooled investments
Mutual funds
The value of the mutual funds is referred to as the net asset value which is computed on a daily basis
based on the closing price of securities in the portfolio
Open-end fund: a mutual fund that accepts new investment money by issuing additional shares at
the net asset value of the fund at the time of investment
Closed-end fund: a mutual fund which is no new investment money is accepted, new investors invest
by buying existing shares and existing investors can liquidate by selling their shares
No load fund: a mutual fund in which there is no fee for investing or redeeming fund shares,
although there is an annual fee based on percentage of net asset value
Load funds: a mutual fund in which a percentage fee is charged to new investments or redemptions
in addition to the annual fee
1. Money market funds: Although money market funds have been a substitute for bank savings
accounts since the early 1980s, they are not insured in the same way as bank deposits. In the
United States, there are two basic types of money market funds: taxable and tax-free.
Taxable money market funds invest in high-quality, short-term corporate debt and federal
government debt. Tax-free money market funds invest in short-term state and local
government debt.
2. Bond mutual funds: it is an investment fund consisting of a portfolio of individual bonds and,
occasionally, preferred shares. The net asset value of the fund is the sum of the value of
each bond in the portfolio divided by the number of shares
3. Stock mutual funds: There are two types of stock mutual funds. The first is an actively
managed fund in which the portfolio manager seeks outstanding performance through the
selection of the appropriate stocks to be included in the portfolio. Passive management is
followed by index funds that are very different from actively managed funds. Their goal is to
match or track the performance of different indices.
4. Hybrid/balance funds: Hybrid or balanced funds are mutual funds that invest in both bonds
and shares.
Exchange traded funds: Exchange traded funds (ETFs) combine features of closed-end and
open-end mutual funds.
Separately managed accounts: An SMA is an investment portfolio managed exclusively for
the benefit of an individual or institution.
Hedge funds: private investment that typically use leverage, derivatives and long and short
investment strategies such as:
Convertible Arbitrage: Buying securities as convertible bonds.
Dedicated Short Bias: Taking more short positions than long positions.
Emerging Markets: Investing in companies in emerging markets
Equity Market Neutral: Attempting to eliminate the overall market movement by selling
overvalued securities and buying undervalued securities.
Event Driven: Attempting to take advantage of specific company events.
Fixed-Income Arbitrage: Attempting to profit from arbitrage opportunities in interest
rate securities. Take advantage of small price discrepancies
Global Macro: Trying to capture shifts between global economies, usually using
derivatives on currencies or interest rates.
Long/Short: Buying long equities that are expected to increase in value and selling short
equities that are expected to decrease in value. Unlike the equity market neutral
strategy, this strategy attempts to profit from market movements, not just from
identifying overvalued and undervalued equities.
Buyout funds: a fund that buys all shares of a public company so that the company becomes
private
Venture capital finds: finance companies in their start-up phase, play a very active role in the
management beyond just providing money, they provide close oversight and advice, make the
investment with the intent to exit in three to five years. These funds make a large number of small
investments with the expectation that only a small number will pay off. The assumption is that the
one that does pay off pays off big enough to compensate for the ones that do not pay off.
Portfolio risk and return – part 1
Construction of an optimal portfolio is an important objective of an investor
1- Return
Two types of return for investors:
1- Periodic income through cash dividends or interest payments.
2- Capital gain or loss as price of a financial asset can increase or decrease.
Measurements:
Holding period return: Total return from holding an asset for a single period
HPR = Pt – P0 + D / P0
Total holding period return for three years holding period return with three different annual returns:
R = R1 + R2 + R3.... / N
Geometric mean return:
The internal rate of return on a portfolio, taking account of all cash flows
Annualized returns:
Rannual = (1 + Rperiodic) c – 1
Where C = is the number of periods per year
Rportfolio = W1 R1 + W2 R2
Other major return measures
A gross return: Total return earned by an asset manager prior to direct fees & expenses deductions
A net return: Total return earned by an asset manager after direct fees & expenses deductions
Historical return: actually returns earned in the past, whereas expected return is what investor
expect to earn in the future based on risk free rate + risk premium + expected inflation
Because investment is risky, there is no guarantee that the actual return will be equal expected
return
σ2 = ∑ (R − μ) 2 / N
s2 = ∑ (R−Ṝ) 2 / N−1
Standard deviation is the square root of its variance
Correlation is a measure of the consistency or tendency for two investments to act in a similar way.
Portfolio selection
1- Risk aversion
Risk aversion is the degree of an investor’s inability or unwillingness to take risk, risk aversion three
types are:
We will assume that investor is a risk-averse. This assumption is the standard approach taken in the
investment industry globally.
Risk tolerance: refer to the amount of risk an investor is willing to take to achieve investment goal, it
is negatively related to risk aversion, the higher risk tolerance, the greater the willingness to take risk
2- Utility theory
Utility is a measure of satisfaction an investor derives from different portfolios.
U = E(r) – ½ A σ2
Where U is utility, A is risk aversion which is the marginal reward required to accept additional risk
Several conclusions:
The capital allocation line consists of the set of feasible portfolios. Indifference curve under the
capital allocation line may be attainable but are not preferred by any investor because the investor
can get a higher return for the same risk by moving up to the capital allocation line. Indifference
curve above the capital allocation line are desirable but not achievable with available assets
Less averse investors will go far from the y-axis
5- Portfolio selection
Utility gives us the indifference curves for an individual and the capital allocation line gives us the set
of feasible investments. Tangency of each individual’s indifference curves on the capital allocation
line will provide us with the optimal portfolio for different investors.
Less averse investors will go far from the y-axis
Minimum-variance portfolio: portfolio with minimum variance for each given level of expected
return
Minimum variance frontier: the entire collection of these minimum variance portfolios
Global minimum-variance portfolio: the portfolio on the minimum-variance frontier with the
smallest variance of return
Markowitz efficient frontier: the set of portfolios that give maximum return with same risk that
investors will choose, they are above the global minimum variance portfolio
A risk free asset and many risky assets: The addition of a risk-free asset makes the investment
opportunity set much richer than the investment opportunity set consisting only of risky assets.
Two-fund separation theorem: states that all investors regardless of taste, risk preferences, and
initial wealth will hold a combination of two portfolios or funds: a risk-free asset and an optimal
portfolio of risky assets.
Optimal portfolio is the point in which indifference curve is tangent to capital allocation line
Optimal risky portfolio is the point in which capital allocation line is tangent to the efficient
frontier
The location of an optimal investor portfolio depends on the investor’s risk preferences, moving
from the risk-free asset along the capital allocation line, we encounter investors who are willing to
accept more risk. At tangency Point, the investor is 100 percent invested in the optimal risky
portfolio. Beyond tangency Point, the investor accepts even more risk by borrowing money and
investing in the optimal risky portfolio.
Portfolio risk and return – part 2
Capital market theory
If investors have different valuations of assets, then the construction of a unique optimal risky
portfolio is not possible. If we make a simplifying assumption of homogeneity in investor
expectations, we will have a single optimal risky portfolio
A capital allocation line includes all possible combinations of the risk-free asset and any risky
portfolio. The capital market line is the capital allocation line under the assumption of homogeneity
where the risky portfolio is the market portfolio, graphically return on y-axis & risk on x-axis and the
market portfolio is a point where the capital market line is tanged to the Markowitz efficient frontier
With different lending and borrowing rates, the CML will no longer be a single straight line, it will be
kinked line
The line will have a slope of [E(Rm) – Rf]/σm between Market portfolio & y-axis, where
borrowing is at Risk free rate
The line will have a smaller slope at points beyond Market portfolio point, where borrowing
will be higher than risk free rate
Investment in the risk-free asset may be positive (lending), zero (no lending or borrowing), or
negative (borrowing). Leverage allows less risk-averse investors to increase the amount of risk they
take by borrowing money and investing more than 100 percent in the passive portfolio.
Pricing of risk
Systematic & nonsystematic risk
Nonsystematic risk: unique risk that is limited to a particular asset or industry, it is diversifiable, such
as major oil discoveries or airline crashes
Pricing of risk: we can assume that in an efficient market, systematic risk is priced and investors are
compensated for holding assets or portfolios based only on it, investors do not receive any return for
accepting nonsystematic risk.
Return generating models:
It is a model that can provide an estimate of the expected return of a security given certain
parameters, it can be built using different kind of factors such as:
1. Macroeconomic factors: use economic factors that are correlated with security returns such
as economic growth, interest rates, productivity, employment, and consumer confidence
2. Fundamental factors: use relationships between security returns and company’s underlying
fundamentals such as earnings, earnings growth, cash flow generation, investment in
research, advertising, and number of patents
3. Statistical factors: use historical and cross-sectional data to identify factors that explain
variance and covariance in observed returns
Types of models
Multi factor model: allows more than one variable to be considered in estimating returns and
can be built using different kinds of factors such as
1- Fama & French: three factors are used, firm size, firm book value to market value ratio &
return on market portfolio less risk-free rate
2- Carhart suggest a forth factor to fama & frensh: price momentum using prior period
returns
Single factor model:
The market model: a simplified form of single index model in which it is easier to work with and is
normally used in estimating beta risk and computing abnormal returns
E(R) = α + β RM + e
The intercept α Where α = RF (1 – β) and beta is the slope
Estimating Beta: beta a measure of how sensitive an asset’s or portfolio’s return is to the market as a
whole, it can be estimated by calculations or regression analysis
It is one of the most significant innovations in portfolio theory, the model is simple, yet powerful; is
intuitive, yet profound; and uses only one factor, yet is broadly applicable
The model provides a linear expected return–beta relationship that precisely determines the
expected return given the beta of an asset. In doing so, it makes the transition from total risk to
systematic risk, the primary determinant of expected return.
CAPM, with all its limitations and weaknesses, provides a benchmark for comparison and for
generating initial return estimates.
Security market line (SML) is a graphical representation of the CAPM with beta on the x-axis and
expected return on the y-axis, the SML intercept the risk-free rate of return, and the slope of this
line is the market risk premium, (Rm – Rf)
Sharpe ratio: defined as the portfolio’s risk premium per unit of total portfolio risk
RP – RF / σP
Limitations:
1- It uses total risk as a measure of risk when only systematic risk is priced.
2- The ratio itself is not informative. To rank portfolios, the Sharpe ratio of one portfolio must
be compared with the Sharpe ratio of another portfolio. Nonetheless, the ease of
computation makes Sharpe ratio a popular tool.
M-squared ratio: it produces the same portfolio rankings as sharp ratio but is stated in
percentage terms, M2 can be expressed as follows:
M2 = {(σ M / σ P) (RP − RF)} − (Rm − RF)
Trey nor ratio: excess return as per unit of Beta, it is a simple extension of Sharpe ratio by
replacing total risk with beta
RP – RF / β P
Jensen’s alpha: The difference between the actual portfolio return and the calculated risk-
adjusted return is a measure of the portfolio’s performance relative to the market portfolio
and is called Jensen’s alpha. By definition, αm of the market is zero. Jensen’s alpha is also the
vertical distance from the SML measuring the excess return for the same risk as that of the
market and is given by
Security selection:
The CAPM-calculated price is the current market price because it reflects the beliefs of all other
investors in the market. If the investor-estimated current price is higher (lower) than the market
price, the asset is considered undervalued (overvalued). Therefore, the CAPM is an effective tool for
determining whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued and whether an investor should buy or
sell the asset.
Construction a portfolio: much of the nonsystematic risk can be diversified away in as few as 30
securities. These securities, however, should be randomly selected and represent different asset
classes for the portfolio to effectively diversify risk. Otherwise, one may be better off using an index
(e.g., the S&P 500 for a diversified large-cap equity portfolio and other indices for other asset
classes).
Theoretical models: arbitrage pricing theory which is based on the same principle as the CAPM
but expand the number of risk factors
Practical models: four factor model which is based on the relationship between past returns and
a variety of different factors, this additional three factors are relative size, relative book to
market value, and beta of the assets with addition of relative past stock returns
Basics of portfolio planning and
construction
1-Portfolio planning
Portfolio planning defined as a program developed in advance of constructing a portfolio that is
expected to satisfy the client’s investment objectives, the written document that governing this
process is the investment policy statement (IPS)
IPS:
The IPS is the starting point of the portfolio management process
The IPS can take a variety of forms. A typical format will include the client’s investment objectives
and the constraints that apply to the client’s portfolio.
Client’s investment objectives are specified in terms of risk tolerance and return requirements.
These must be consistent with each other: a client is unlikely to be able to find a portfolio that offers
a relatively high expected return without taking on a relatively high level of risk.
Constraints section covers factors that need to be taken into account when constructing a portfolio
for the client that meets the objectives. The typical constraint categories including liquidity, time
horizon, regulatory requirements, tax status, and unique needs. The constraints may be internal (i.e.,
set by the client), or external (i.e., set by law or regulation).
The IPS should be reviewed on a regular basis to ensure that it remains consistent with the client’s
circumstances and requirements.
Major components of IPS:
There is no single standard format for an IPS. Many IPS include the following sections:
Risk objectives: When constructing a portfolio for a client, it is important to ensure that the risk of
the portfolio is suitable for the client. The IPS should state clearly the risk tolerance of the client.
Constraints:
Liquidity: The IPS should state what the likely requirements are to withdraw funds from the
portfolio.
Time horizon: The IPS should state the time horizon over which the investor is investing. It may be
the period over which the portfolio is accumulating before any assets need to be withdrawn; it could
also be the period until the client’s circumstances are likely to change.
Tax concerns: the portfolio should reflect the tax status of the client. For example, a taxable
investor may wish to hold a portfolio that emphasizes capital gains and receives little income. A
taxable investor based in the United States is also likely to consider including US municipal bonds
(“munis”) in his or her portfolio because interest income from munis, unlike from treasuries and
corporate bonds, is exempt from taxes. A tax-exempt investor, such as a pension fund, will be
relatively indifferent to the form of returns.
Legal and regulatory factors: The IPS should state any legal and regulatory restrictions that constrain
how the portfolio is invested.
Unique circumstances: This section of the IPS should cover any other aspect of the client’s
circumstances that is likely to have a material impact on the composition of the portfolio. A client
may have considerations derived from his or her religion or ethical values that could constrain
investment choices.
Gathering client information: Good record keeping is very important, and may be crucial in a case in
which any aspect of the client relationship comes into dispute at a later stage.
2-Portfolio construction
Once the IPS has been compiled, the investment manager can construct a suitable portfolio.
Strategic asset allocation is a traditional focus of the first steps in portfolio construction. The
strategic asset allocation is stated in terms of percent allocations to asset classes.
The process of formulating a strategic asset allocation is based on the IPS and capital market
expectations
Traditionally, capital market expectations are quantified in terms of asset class expected returns,
standard deviation of returns, and correlations among pairs of asset classes. Formally, the expected
return of an asset class consists of the risk-free rate and one or more risk premium(s) associated
with the asset class. Expected returns are in practice developed in a variety of ways, including the
use of historical estimates, economic analysis, and various kinds of valuation models. Standard
deviations and correlation estimates are frequently based on historical data.