Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Buy Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ)

(Maintained) Upside potentials from ore sales to boost FY25
earnings
Last Price (Rp) 1,575 • 3Q24 core profit grew slightly (+9% qoq), driven by robust gold sales,
Target Price (Rp) 2,000 though nickel segment lagged behind due to a poor sales volume.
Previous Target Price (Rp) 2,000
• ANTM has obtained 12wmt of nickel ore RKAB and targets 15wmt of
Upside/Downside +27.0%
production in FY25, while FeNi output remains flat.
• Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp2,000. Key risks include
No. of Shares (mn) 24,031
lower commodity prices, lower utilization, and project delays.
Mkt Cap (Rpbn/US$mn) 37,848/2,405
Avg, Daily T/O
122.0/7.8 3Q figures heavily supported by robust gold sales
(Rpbn/US$mn)
Free Float (%) 34.9 ANTM recorded revenue of Rp20tr, +37% qoq, driven by a record high gold sales
volume of 12,598 tons, +42% qoq. Its 9M24 revenue grew to Rp43tr, +40% yoy,
Major Shareholder (%)
reaching 105%/90% of our/cons estimates. However, its nickel segment
disappointed, with FeNi sales down 29% qoq and nickel ore sales flat at 0% qoq
MIND ID 65.0
despite additional RKAB approvals throughout the quarter. Thus, we saw a decline
in Gross/EBIT/Net profit margins of 1.5%/0.4%/5.8%. The decline in NPM was
EPS Consensus (Rp)
more apparent as ANTM also recorded an FX loss of Rp428bn through the
2024F 2025F 2026F strengthening of the IDR. The 3Q24 net profit stood at Rp651bn, -50% qoq, while
BRIDS 124.9 154.0 163.3 core profit stood at Rp1tr, +9% qoq, which brings the 9M24 net profit to Rp2.2tr, -
Consensus 101.8 131.8 156.6 23% yoy, reaching 76%/91% of our/cons estimates.
BRIDS/Cons (%) 21.6 9.1 4.3
3Q24: A productive quarter
ANTM had ticked off several projects in 3Q24, starting with the 30% acquisition
stake in Jiulong Metal Industry’s 28ktpa NPI plant in Weda for US$102.5mn, along
ANTM relative to JCI Index
with a 3-year ore offtake agreement. Next, ANTM also completed an MoU with
Freeport to offtake up to 32 tons of gold p.a., effective per FY25. As the gold is
sourced domestically, there would be no import tariff, providing ANTM with a
stronger cashflow. Finally, ANTM successfully switched the power source of its
FeNi smelter from diesel to the PLN grid, which would see a cash cost decline
below US$12k/ton (vs. US$12k/ton in 9M24).
FY24-26F forecast upgrades on stronger nickel ore sales
Management guides a flat FeNi volume in FY25 as the FeNi Haltim plant is still
commissioning. Yet, ANTM believes there should not be any further impairments.
Furthermore, ANTM has pocketed 12wmt of nickel ore RKAB, with another 3wmt
to be approved by the ministry. Thus, we have revised our FY24-26 estimates
Source: Bloomberg accordingly and expect an increase in revenue/net profit of +38%/+3.8% in FY24
and +0.1%/+43% in FY25.
Reiterate our Buy rating with a TP of Rp2,000
We reiterate our Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp2,000 based on FY25F PE
of 13x (vs. 16x PE previously), equal to -0.5x std of its 3-yr mean forward PE band.
Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices, a lower utilization rate, and project
execution delays.
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Analysts Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Timothy Wijaya
Revenue (Rpbn) 45,930 41,048 56,553 46,383 47,593
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3504 EBITDA (Rpbn) 4,756 4,022 4,589 5,603 5,754
[email protected] Net Profit (Rpbn) 3,821 3,078 3,001 3,700 3,925
EPS (Rp) 159.0 128.1 124.9 154.0 163.3
BVPS (Rp) 986.7 1,275.2 1,272.5 1,364.5 1,451.4
Naura Reyhan Muchlis PER (x) 9.9 12.3 12.6 10.2 9.6
PBV (x) 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3507
Dividen yield (%) 2.5 5.0 8.1 4.0 4.9
[email protected] EV/EBITDA 7.5 7.6 6.9 5.0 4.3
Source: ANTM, BRIDS Estimates
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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Exhibit 1. ANTM 3Q24 earnings summary

Aneka Tambang
ANTM 3Q23 2Q24 3Q24 q-q (%) y-y (%) 9M23 9M24 y-y (%) % of 24 % of Cons
PROFIT & LOSS (Rpbn)
Revenue 9,238 14,569 20,012 37% 117% 30,899 43,201 40% 105.4 90.3
C ost of revenue (7,381) (12,816) (17,912) 40% 143% (24,801) (39,098) 58%
Gross profit 1,857 1,753 2,100 20% 13% 6,098 4,103 -33%
Operating expenses (838) (729) (768) 5% -8% (2,752) (2,239) -19%
Operating profit 1,019 1,024 1,331 30% 31% 3,345 1,864 -44% 60.0 91.8
EBITDA 876 1,432 1,753 22% 100% 4,566 3,079 -33%
Other income/(expense) 203 541 (359) -166% n.a 339 759 124%
Pre-tax profit 1,222 1,564 972 -38% -20% 3,684 2,622 -29%
Taxes (263) (262) (255) -3% -3% (835) (393) -53%
Non-controlling interests - (10) 66 -773% n.a 0 28 n.a
Net profit 959 1,312 651 -50% -32% 2,849 2,201 -23% 76.1 90.8
C ore profit 783 969 1,055 9% 35% 3,132 1,958 -37% 62.9

Margins (%)
Gross 20.1 12.0 10.5 19.7 9.5
EBIT 11.0 7.0 6.7 10.8 4.3
EBITDA 9.5 9.8 8.8 14.8 7.1
Net 10.4 9.0 3.3 9.2 5.1
C ore net 8.5 6.6 5.3 10.1 4.5

Operational data 3Q23 2Q24 3Q24 q-q (%) y-y (%) 9M23 9M24 y-y (%)
Gold production (Kg) 315 273 304 11% -3% 910 743 -18%
Gold sales (Kg) 5,952 8,857 12,598 42% 112% 19,460 28,567 47%
Implied Gold ASP (USD/Oz) 2,057 2,386 2,752 15% 34%

Ferronickel production (Ton) 5,250 5,380 5,075 -6% -3% 15,787 15,244 -3%
Ferronickel sales (Ton) 3,526 6,778 4,829 -29% 37% 14,132 11,691 -17%
Implied Ferronickel ASP 14,276 13,744 14,385 5% 1%

Nickel ore production (KTon) 3,738 2,742 3,118 14% -17% 10,553 7,304 -31%
Nickel ore sales (Kton) 3,154 2,355 2,353 0% -25% 9,421 5,712 -39%
Implied nickel ore ASP 39.7 36.7 43.5 19% 10%

Bauxite production (KTon) 566,450 390,212 94,784 -76% -83% 1,417,306 637,713 -55%
Bauxite sales (Kton) 533,520 - 97,430 -82% 988,513 97,430 -90%

Alumina production (KTon) 36,928 37,983 43,148 14% 17% 114,524 105,883 -8%
Alumina sales (Kton) 36,244 46,118 44,625 -3% 23% 108,351 133,065 23%

Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates

Exhibit 2. ANTM Forecast changes

ANTM 2024E 2025E 2026E
(Rpbn) Old New Change Old New Change Old New Change
Revenue 40,979 56,553 38.0% 46,355 46,383 0.1% 46,833 47,593 1.6%
Gross margin 17.0% 10.2% 14.5% 14.6% 14.3% 15.2%
EBITDA 4,203 4,589 9.2% 3,834 5,603 46.1% 3,620 5,754 58.9%
EBITDA margin 10.3% 8.1% 8.3% 12.1% 7.7% 12.1%
Net profit 2,892 3,001 3.8% 2,588 3,700 43.0% 2,424 3,925 61.9%
Net margin 7.1% 5.3% 5.6% 8.0% 5.2% 8.2%

Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates

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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Exhibit 3. ANTM P/E Band Exhibit 4. ANTM’s nickel ore ASP vs. benchmark
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24
Nickel ore (USD/ton) HMA 1.6% (MC 30%)

Source: Company, Bloomberg, BRIDS Estimates Source: Company, BRIDS

Exhibit 5. ANTM’s Nickel Ore production and sales volume Exhibit 6. ANTM’s FeNi production and sales volume (Ton)
4,000 4,000 8,000 9,000
3,500 3,500 7,000 8,000
3,000 3,000 6,000 7,000
6,000
2,500 2,500 5,000
(Wmt)

(TNi)

5,000
2,000 2,000 4,000
4,000
1,500 1,500 3,000
3,000
1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000
500 500 1,000 1,000
- - - -
1Q23

2Q24
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22

2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24

3Q24

1Q21

2Q22

3Q23
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22

3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23

4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
Nickel ore production Nickel ore sales - RHS Ferronickel production Ferronickel sales - RHS

Source: Company, BRIDS Source: Company, BRIDS

Exhibit 7. ANTM’s Gold production and sales volume (Kg)

Source: Company, BRIDS

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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Exhibit 8. Revenue and Growth Exhibit 9. Net Profit and Growth

Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates

Exhibit 10. Margins Exhibit 11. Gearing Level

Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates Source: Company, BRIDS Estimates

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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Exhibit 12. Income Statement

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 45,930 41,048 56,553 46,383 47,593
COGS (37,720) (34,733) (50,782) (39,607) (40,375)
Gross profit 8,211 6,315 5,771 6,777 7,218
EBITDA 4,756 4,022 4,589 5,603 5,754
Oper. profit 3,942 2,617 2,661 3,646 3,767
Interest income 85 172 354 280 422
Interest expense (381) (215) (134) (95) (78)
Forex Gain/(Loss) 564 (221) 200 0 0
Income From Assoc. Co’s 931 947 480 720 720
Other Income (Expenses) 74 555 100 75 75
Pre-tax profit 5,215 3,854 3,660 4,626 4,906
Income tax (1,394) (777) (659) (925) (981)
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Net profit 3,821 3,078 3,001 3,700 3,925
Core Net Profit 3,257 3,299 2,801 3,700 3,925

Exhibit 13. Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Cash & cash equivalent 4,476 9,209 7,274 10,968 13,848
Receivables 2,346 1,489 2,565 2,199 2,267
Inventory 2,906 3,470 4,468 3,485 3,553
Other Curr. Asset 1,966 5,897 6,192 6,501 6,826
Fixed assets - Net 16,472 16,183 14,895 13,577 12,230
Other non-curr.asset 5,471 6,604 6,851 7,125 7,430
Total asset 33,637 42,851 42,244 43,855 46,154

ST Debt 189 1,002 605 500 400

Payables 1,780 2,000 2,132 1,779 1,818
Other Curr. Liabilities 4,003 5,575 5,615 5,646 5,801
Long Term Debt 2,082 881 500 400 300
Other LT. Liabilities 1,871 2,228 2,355 2,477 2,608
Total Liabilities 9,925 11,686 11,207 10,802 10,927
Shareholder'sFunds 23,712 30,643 30,579 32,791 34,878
Minority interests 0 522 459 263 349
Total Equity & Liabilities 33,637 42,851 42,244 43,855 46,154

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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

Exhibit 14. Cash Flow

Year to 31 Dec (Rpbn) 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Net income 3,821 3,078 3,001 3,700 3,925
Depreciation and Amort. 756 1,966 1,928 1,957 1,986
Change in Working Capital (334) 786 (1,917) 1,023 (68)
OtherOper. Cash Flow (644) (3,398) (399) (441) (476)
Operating Cash Flow 3,599 2,432 2,613 6,240 5,368

Capex (402) (1,574) (536) (536) (536)

Others Inv. Cash Flow 0 0 0 0 0
Investing Cash Flow (402) (1,574) (536) (536) (536)

Net change in debt (2,863) (501) (883) (325) (200)

New Capital 4 6,206 (52) (184) 99
Dividend payment (931) (1,910) (3,078) (1,501) (1,850)
Other Fin. Cash Flow (19) 80 0 0 0
Financing Cash Flow (3,809) 3,875 (4,012) (2,010) (1,951)

Net Change in Cash (613) 4,732 (1,935) 3,694 2,881

Cash - begin of the year 5,089 4,476 9,209 7,274 10,968
Cash - end of the year 4,476 9,209 7,274 10,968 13,848

Exhibit 15. Key Ratio

Year to 31 Dec 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F
Growth (%)
Sales 19.5 (10.6) 37.8 (18.0) 2.6
EBITDA 32.4 (15.4) 14.1 22.1 2.7
Operating profit 44.0 (33.6) 1.7 37.0 3.3
Net profit 105.2 (19.5) (2.5) 23.3 6.1
Profitability (%)
Gross margin 17.9 15.4 10.2 14.6 15.2
EBITDA margin 10.4 9.8 8.1 12.1 12.1
Operating margin 8.6 6.4 4.7 7.9 7.9
Net margin 8.3 7.5 5.3 8.0 8.2
ROAA 11.5 8.0 7.1 8.6 8.7
ROAE 17.2 11.3 9.8 11.7 11.6
Leverage
Net Gearing (x) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)
Interest Coverage (x) 10.3 12.2 19.8 38.4 48.3

Source: ANTM, BRIDS Estimates

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Equity Research – Company Update Friday, 08 November 2024

BRI Danareksa Equity Research Team

Erindra Krisnawan, CFA Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Coal [email protected]
Natalia Sutanto Consumer, Cigarettes, Pharmaceuticals, Retail [email protected]
Niko Margaronis Telco, Tower, Technology, Media [email protected]
Timothy Wijaya Metal, Oil and Gas [email protected]
Victor Stefano Banks, Poultry [email protected]
Ismail Fakhri Suweleh Healthcare, Property, Industrial Estate [email protected]
Richard Jerry Tambayong Automotive, Cement, Infrastructure [email protected]
Ni Putu Wilastita Muthia Sofi Research Associate [email protected]
Naura Reyhan Muchlis Research Associate [email protected]
Sabela Nur Amalina Research Associate [email protected]
Kafi Ananta Azhari Research Associate [email protected]

BRI Danareksa Economic Research Team

Helmy Kristanto Chief Economist, Macro Strategy [email protected]
Dr. Telisa Aulia Falianty Senior Advisor [email protected]
Kefas Sidauruk Economist [email protected]

BRI Danareksa Institutional Equity Sales Team

Yofi Lasini Head of Institutional Sales and Dealing [email protected]
Novrita Endah Putrianti Institutional Sales Unit Head [email protected]
Ehrliech Suhartono Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]
Yunita Nababan Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]
Adeline Solaiman Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]
Andreas Kenny Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]
Christy Halim Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]
Jason Joseph Institutional Sales Associate [email protected]

BRI Danareksa Sales Traders

Mitcha Sondakh Head of Sales Trader [email protected]
Suryanti Salim Sales Trader [email protected]

INVESTMENT RATING
BUY Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period

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