GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR CCUS

Chris Consoli CAGS Technical Workshop

Global CCS Institute 26 June 2017
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE
 Capture: Major infrastructure
CO2 compressor unit (after absorption capture)

Image Chevron

Source: Chevron

Gorgon Project- CO2 injection rate of 3-4 Mtpa

Pipeline engineering: a mature industry

Source: DoE/NETL(2013)

CO2 Pipeline Network in the USA

Storage: 40 years of knowledge
CCS: THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH
 Paris commitments: currently on track for +3oC

Source: Climate Action Tracker (2017)

CoP21: Need for CCS will become more visible

 CoP21 was a significant step forwards:

• 195 countries agreed a higher level of ambition; limiting
global warming to1.5 - 2oC
• Established bottom-up architecture for emission reduction
targets allowing nations to determine their national
contributions
• Established a process of regular (5 yearly) reviews of
national emission reduction targets and an expectation
that targets will become more stringent
 CCS is a vital element of a low-carbon energy future
Gt CO2 emissions

Non- Power
OECD
~ 95 ~ 95
GtCO2 GtCO2
Industry
OECD

A transformation in how we generate and use energy is needed

Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2016)
 Mitigation costs more than double in scenarios with
limited availability of CCS
No CCS
150 + 138%
Percentage*

100
Limited bioenergy Cost increase under
+ 64% limited technology
availability scenarios
50
Nuclear phase out Limited solar/wind

+ 7% + 6%

Baseline cost
with all mitigation
options utilized

*Percentage increase in total discounted mitigation costs (2015-2100) relative to default technology assumptions – median estimate

Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, November 2014.
Fossil fuel demand growing & reserves robust

Fossil Fuel
Share 80% 81% 78% 74%
20000

18000
World Energy Demand

16000
World Energy Demand (MTOE)

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
2000 2014 2025 2040

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other Renewables

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2016 (New policies scenario)

 Industrial emissions: CCS is only viable option

70% of CO2
that are Captured and Stored in IEA 2DS

emissions from gas

Percentage of Emissions Generated

processing must be
captured and stored
by 2050 in the IEA 2
Degree Celsius
Scenario

Source: IEA Global Action to Advance CCS; 2013

Currently, in most high emission industries there are no cost-effective

and technically viable method to reduce emissions, apart from CCS
STATUS OF CCS: 2017
 Large-scale CCS facilities by region or country

Early Advanced
Construction Operation Total
planning planning

North America 1 2 3 12 18

China 5 2 1 - 8

Europe 2 2 - 2 6

Gulf Cooperation
Council
- - - 2 2

Rest of World* 3 1 1 1 6

Total 11 7 5 17 40
* Includes facilities in Australia, Brazil and South Korea.

North America dominates – 15 (of 22) facilities in operation or construction, China has most
facilities in planning
 Actual and expected operation dates up to 2022 for large-scale
CCS projects by industry and storage type*

* Includes projects in the Operate, Execute and Define stages

Δ Feasibility studies assessed the possibility of CO2 capture and storage from ammonia production, from cement production and
from waste-to-energy sources
 CCS Facilities – power, industry

Petra Nova Carbon Capture (2017)

 Capture: Sub-bituminous coal-fired
• Post combustion (Amine); retrofit
 Storage: CO2-EOR
• ~1.4 MTPA; West Ranch oil field
Source: NRG

Gorgon CO2 Injection Project (2017/18)

 Capture: Industrial, natural gas processing
• Gas fields: 1-14% CO2
 Storage: Dedicated
Source: Chevron Australia Pty Ltd
• 3.4 and 4.0 MTPA CO2

Sleipner (1996)
 Capture: Industrial, natural gas processing
• Fields: <2-9%
 Storage: Dedicated
• ~1 MTPA
• Utsira Formation
Source: Statoil
 CCS Facilities – next generation industries
Coal-to-X
Yanchang CCS Project (2018; pilot)
 Capture: Industrial gasification
• Coal-to-chemical, Coal-to-liquids
 Storage: CO2-EOR
• Yanchang oil fields, 0.41 MTPA CO2
Source: Yanchang Petroleum

Hydrogen
Tomakomai CCS Demonstration (2016)
 Capture: Hydrogen production (Amine)
 Dedicated geological storage
• Onshore-offshore storage
• 100,000 TPA
Source: JapanCCS

BioEnergy - CCS
Illinois Industrial CCS Project (2017)
 Capture: Fermentation, Corn-to-ethanol plant
 Storage: Dedicated
• ~ 1 MTPA
Source: Illinois Decatur ADM
CCS is real, CCS is needed

Current operating and

facilities under
construction have around
40 Mtpa of CO2 capture
capacity
 CCS is competitive with other low emission
technologies
400 9000

350 8000

7000
300

6000

Capital Cost $/kW

250
LCOE $/MWh

5000
200
4000

150
3000

100
2000

Levelised cost (LHS)

50 1000
Average capital cost (RHS)
0 0

Sources: CO2CRC, 2015; MEI/Arup, 2014; Lazard, 2014. Note: These costs are for Australia
 Intermittent renewables also require energy storage
to be comparable to CCS…CCS is lower cost
400 Wind + battery storage 9000

350 8000

7000
300

6000

Capital Cost $/kW

250
LCOE $/MWh

5000
200
4000

150
3000

100
2000

Levelised cost (LHS)

50 1000
Average capital cost (RHS)
0 0

Sources: CO2CRC, 2015; MEI/Arup, 2014; Lazard, 2014. Note: These costs are for Australia
 Challenge & Opportunity
~6,000 Mtpa of CO2
Global Status of CCS captured by CCS by 2050
(June 2017) (IEA 2D Scenario)**

40 large-scale CCS projects -

combined capture capacity of
approximately 71 Mtpa*:
• 22 projects in operation or
construction (40 Mtpa)
• 6 projects in advanced
planning (6 Mtpa)
40 Mtpa
• 12 projects in earlier stages
of planning (25 Mtpa)

*Mtpa = million tonnes per annum

Non-OECD OECD
**Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2016).
numbers…
Some BIG
95 Gtwhich means
IEA CCS contribution
2015-2050

6 Gtpa
which equals
IEA CCS per annum
contribution in 2050

120 TCF
in 2013 we used

115 TCF IEA WEO 2013

natural gas consumption
HOW CAN WE GET THERE?
 Strong policy drives investment – CCS must be afforded
‘policy parity’

USD billion since 2006

• Scale of renewables investment 3,000

is instructive
2,500
2,500

• CCS has not enjoyed

commensurate policy support 2,000

• Enhanced oil recovery has 1,500

provided impetus in North
America
1,000

• Policy parity is essential

500

• How do we get CCS onto a

20
similar curve? -
CCS Total clean energy

Data source: IEA 2015 “Tracking Clean Energy Progress”. Bloomberg New Energy Finance “Clean Energy
Investment By the Numbers – End of Year 2015” fact pack.
 Advocacy: International influence

Unparalleled access to international decision- Accredited Observer

making
UNFCCC
 Advocating for CCS policy support in important Green Climate Fund
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
multilateral agreements and platforms
 The primary channel of influence for CCS in
Member
the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change Climate Technology Centre and Network
United Nations Global Compact
 Knowledge of international CCS funding
programs
Participant
 Influencing CCS design via the International
Standards Organisation (ISO) Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
Clean Energy Ministerial
North American Energy Tri-Lateral
 Paris Agreement

Photograph: Francois Mori/AP (Guardian 2016)

 Countries must be further encouraged to include CCS in the next wave of NDCs
(access to affordable finance for projects may depend on it)
 CCS needs higher representation in developing country TNAs
 10 countries cite CCS in INDCs – represents a third of global emissions
– Adding those countries that we know to have an active interest in CCS, but
who have not cited CCS in their NDCs, could represent > 65% of global
emissions
Advocacy: Status and the underground

The Institute’s key publication can be found at:

status.globalccsinstitute.com

27
 The Global CCS Institute
 We are an international membership
Our Vision for CCS: organisation.
CCS is an integral part of a low-carbon future
 Offices in Washington DC, Brussels,
Beijing and Tokyo. Headquarters in
Melbourne.

OUR MISSION  Our diverse international

To accelerate the membership consists of:
development,
demonstration and o governments,
Reserves to production ratio:
deployment of CCS ~75 years
globally o global corporations,
o small companies,
1 2 o research bodies, and
Fact-based,
Authoritative
influential
advice and
knowledge o non-government organisations.
sharing
advocacy
 Specialist expertise covers the
CCS/CCUS chain.
Key Messages from the Global CCS Institute

CCS is a vital component of a low-carbon future.

CCS is established and already reducing

emissions.

Strong policy support is required globally.

Chris Consoli – Senior Adviser, Global CCS Institute
[email protected]

Twitter: @GlobalCCSChris