Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Conjoint Analysis
Amar Saxena
[email protected]
+91.993.002.2910 25th Oct 2024
A Short Survey … to start our session !!
• We would be grateful if you could answer a short survey for a
restaurant. The aim is to understand the importance of various
attributes when deciding which restaurant to go to.
Customer Service
Quality of Food
Ambience
Food Options
Price
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Buyers want all of the
desirable features at the Sellers want to maximize
lowest possible price profits by: minimizing costs;
providing products/services
that offer greater overall
value than the competition
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How to Learn What Customers Want?
• Ask Direct Questions about preference:
What brand do you prefer? What Interest Rate would you like?
Preferred Annual Fee? What Credit Limit would you like?
Conjoint
1. Joined together; combined.
2. Of, consisting of, or involving two or more combined or
associated entities; joint.
--The American Heritage College Dictionary
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UNDERSTANDING CONJOINT
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Suppose we want to market a new mobile phone. What are important factors?
We know from experience and from talking with consumers that there are three
important product features:
Internal Memory RAM Price
We further know that there are alternatives for each of these features, for instance:
Internal Memory RAM Price
256GB 6GB ₹ 10,000
128GB 4GB ₹ 20,000
64GB 3GB ₹ 30,000
And what will be the “ideal” mobile phone from a cost of manufacturing
perspective?
Assuming that it costs less to produce a phone that has lesser features.
Here’s the basic marketing issue: We’d lose our shirts selling the first mobile
phone and the market wouldn’t buy the second. The most viable product is
somewhere in between, but where? Conjoint analysis lets us find out where.
Traditional research might start by considering the rankings of the various
features of mobile phone.
Rank Internal Memory Rank RAM
1 256GB 1 6GB
2 128GB 2 4GB
3 64GB 3 3GB
This information doesn’t tell us anything that we didn’t already know about
which mobile phone to produce.
Now consider the same two features taken conjointly. The table here shows the
ranking of all the 9 possible products for two buyers assuming price is the same
for all combinations.
Both buyers agree on the most and least preferred mobile phone. But as we can
see from their other choices, Buyer 1 tends to trade-off mobile phone internal
memory for RAM, whereas Buyer 2 makes the opposite trade-off.
The knowledge we gain in going from 1st figure to 2nd figure is the essence of
conjoint analysis. If you understand this, you understand the power behind
this technique.
Next, let’s figure out a set of values for Internal Memory and a second set for
RAM for Buyer 1 so that when we add these values together for each mobile
phone and reproduce Buyer 1's rank orders.
One possible scheme:
We could have picked many other sets of numbers - and they would have worked.
So there is some arbitrariness in the magnitudes of these numbers even though their
relationships to each other are fixed.
Next suppose that table below represents the trade-offs Buyer 1 is willing to
make between RAM and Price. Starting with the values we just derived for
RAM, the table shows a set of values for Price that when added to those RAM
reproduce the rankings for Buyer 1 in the table.
We now have a complete
set of values that capture
Buyer 1's trade-offs.
Referred to as “utilities”
or “part-worths”)
• Credit Card:
– Brand + Interest Rate + Annual Fee + Credit Limit
• On-Line Brokerage:
– Brand + Fee + Speed of Transaction + Reliability of Transaction +
Research/Charting Options
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Why Does Conjoint Analysis Work Well?
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How Conjoint Analysis Is Used in Industry
• New Product Introduction
• Pricing Research
• Brand Equity Research
• Market Segmentation
• Product Positioning/Line Extensions
• Employee Research (benefits, retention, etc.)
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AN EXAMPLE
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What credit card to offer?
• Imagine that a credit card company is interested in how
consumers trade off various aspects of credit card offerings:
specifically, the brand, annual fee and credit limit.
An Attribute List
• The first step in conducting a conjoint analysis study is to
develop a list of attributes and levels of interest.
Annual Fee: Credit Limit:
Brand:
No annual fee $1,000 credit limit
Visa
$10 annual fee $2,500 credit limit
MasterCard
$20 annual fee $5,000 credit limit
Discover
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Your Conjoint Results
Importance Scores:
Brand 22
Annual Fee 42
Credit Limit 36
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How Does Conjoint Analysis Work?
• Product features are varied to build many product concepts
• Respondents are asked to rate/rank the product concepts
(dependent variable)
• Based on the respondents’
evaluations of the product
concepts, we figure out how
much unique value (utility)
each of the features added
Regress dependent variable on
independent variables; betas
equal part worth utilities.
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Implementation – 4 Key Questions
Attributes to consider?
• What are the important attributes that could affect preference?
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Steps to Conjoint Analysis Studies...
• Attribute List Formulation. A business problem is defined and
an attribute (features) list is developed to study the problem.
• Levels at which each Attribute will be measured.
• Create Profiles – combination of various levels of attributes.
• Data Collection. Ask respondents to express the trade-offs they
are willing to make among product features by rating or sorting
among hypothetical product concepts.
X Y
• Product Features • Product liked by the
▪ Camera consumers
▪ Processor • Products selected by
▪ Color them from the options
▪ Storage shown.
▪ Size
▪ Etc.
• Price
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Steps to Conjoint Analysis Studies...
• Utility Calculation. A set of preference values or part worth
"utilities" is derived from the data; they reflect the trade-offs
each respondent made.
• Willing to Pay
• Market Simulation. Utility values are used to predict how
buyers will choose among competing products and how their
choices are expected to change as product features are varied.
– The value of conjoint analysis is its ability to estimate choice
behavior for a wide range of market scenarios.
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Insight into the output
• Importance Scores
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Creating an Attribute List
• Selection of attributes is extremely important
– Should NOT be based on the important attributes of the product
– Focus on attributes important for managerial decision making
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Formulating Attribute Levels
• Levels should be mutually exclusive: a product concept can have
one and only one level of each attribute
Attribute: Add-on features
– level 1: Sunroof
– level 2: GPS System
– level 3: Video Screen
The attribute levels are not mutually exclusive. They can all be there in
the same car. If you define levels in this way, you cannot determine
the value of providing two or three of these features at the same time
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Attribute 1: Brand Attribute 5: Weight
• Full Profile
• Fractional Factorial Design
• Sample Size
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Part Worth Utilities
• Numeric values that reflect how desirable different features
are.
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Interpreting Part Worth Utilities
• Part-worths are estimated on an Interval scale
– Interval scales support addition/subtraction operations, but not
multiplication/division
– No meaningful zero point.
– So it is NOT appropriate to say that a part worth utility of 1.0 is
twice as preferred as a utility of 0.5.
• You cannot compare one level from one attribute with one level
from another attribute
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Attribute Importance
• A measure of how much influence each attribute has on
people’s choices
• Best minus worst level of each attribute, as percentage
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Issues with Attribute Importance
Some weaknesses with traditional conjoint importance scores:
• The importance of an attribute is directly affected by the range of
levels you choose to include in the study.
– So, you can make an attribute such as Price more important by
studying it on a wider range of prices.
– Do not take the importance number as-is, without consideration of
the way it is computed and the range associated with each
attribute. To say that brand makes up 30% of the decision, or that
Price has 40% importance makes little sense on its own.
• An importance score takes the full difference between best and worst
levels, irrespective of whether the "worst" utility is associated with the
expected worst level (such as the highest price level)
• An attribute of no consequence to a respondent will still take on a
positive importance score.
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Important Rule for Attribute Importance
• Importance can be very misleading if they are computed from
average population (or group) utilities.
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MARKET SIMULATION
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Intro to Market Simulation
• Conjoint analysis recognizes that people make trade-offs, and
that different people make different trade-offs. If you know
what those trade-offs are, you have a powerful tool for
predicting choice behavior.
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Market Simulators ("What-If" Simulators)
• Offer a more powerful and intuitive way to present the results
of conjoint analysis projects to management
• Say, just two possible ice cream cone options are available in
the market. Which cone would this respondent choose?
Option 1: Option 2:
Vanilla Chocolate
₹ 25 ₹ 15
• We simply add up the part worth utility values for the levels
associated with each option. The option with the highest utility
is said to be "chosen."
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• Respondent in the example "chooses" the higher utility option
2, the ₹ 15 Chocolate cone!
35%
65%
Vanilla @ ₹ 25 Chocolate @ ₹ 15
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A Powerful "What-If" Tool
• With many attributes and many product concepts, in competition with
one another, many possible market scenarios can be tested.
• No need to go back and interview respondents about every new choice
scenario.
– Simply add the utility of each potential product offering to project the
likely choice of the customer.
"A good market simulator is like having all of your respondents gathered in one room for the sole
purpose of voting on product concepts and competitive scenarios (defined in terms of the attribute
levels you measured) you show them. You walk into the room, show them a market scenario (i.e.
products A, B and C), and they vote for the one(s) they prefer. Many potential products and market
situations could be evaluated, and your captive audience would never get tired, ask for lunch breaks,
or require you to pay them by the hour."
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Why Conduct Simulations? Competitive Effects
Matter!
• Let's consider that you conducted a conjoint analysis study and found that 80%
of the market prefers round widgets, and 20% prefers square ones.
(So the part worth utility for round widgets vastly exceeds that for square widgets).
• There are many ways to convert those overall utility scores for
product alternatives to probabilities of choice (or "shares of
preference"). Common methods are:
– Maximum Utility Rule
– Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) Rule
– Logit Rule
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Variations in Market Simulation
• Maximum Utility Rule:
Simply assume that each respondent will choose the product alternative
with the highest utility. In the example above, Product A would capture
100%. Repeat the same for all respondents, and summarize the overall
sample's shares of preference.
• Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) Rule:
The likelihood of choosing a product alternative is equal to its total utility
divided by the sum of all utilities for products in the simulation scenario.
In the example, the likelihood of this respondent choosing Product A is equal
to 3.2 / (3.2 + 2.6 + 0.3) = 52.5%. Product B's choice likelihood is 2.6 / (3.2 + 2.6
+ 0.3) = 42.6%, etc.
• Logit Rule:
Just like the BTL rule, except that product utilities are first "exponentiated"
prior to applying the rule. "Exponentiation" means to take the antilog of the
utility, or to raise the constant "e" to the power of the utility.
Under the Logit rule, the probability of this respondent choosing product A
is equal to 24.53 / (24.53 + 13.46 + 1.35) = 62.3%.
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Market Share – Logit Rule
Market Share =
• Step 1 – Calculate utility of all the options
• Step 2 – Exp(Utility)
• Step 3 – Market Share is the proportion of number found in
Step 2.
EXHIBIT TN-2: CURRENT VIDEO STREAMING INDUSTRY MARKET SHARES
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Willingness to Pay
• Price vector has to be there
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TYPES OF CONJOINT
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Flavours of Conjoint Analysis
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Various Response Types
• Rating-based conjoint: Respondents rate the product
alternatives shown. This can be on a scale of 0 to 100.
Alternative: Constant Sum.
• Best-worst conjoint (MaxDiff Analysis): Respondents are asked
to indicate which option is the best and which option is the
worst among the alternatives.
• Ranking-based conjoint: Respondents rank alternatives from
best to worst.
• Constant-sum conjoint (Chip-allocation): Respondents are
exposed to a number of different scenarios (tasks), and are
asked tο indicate how many times would they purchase one of
the projected alternative choices, for a constant number of
future purchases. The purchase volume is predefined before
the start of the experiment.
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Various Response Types …
• Volumetric Conjoint: Respondents are exposed to a number of
different scenarios (tasks), and are asked to provide the exact
quantity that they would purchase each of the illustrated
alternative choices.
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Traditional Full-Profile Conjoint Analysis
• Full-Profile refers to the idea that each product profile is
described using all the attributes involved in the study.
• Often referred to as "Card-Sort Conjoint Analysis," because
respondents actually received a deck of cards, with a conjoint
profile printed on each one.
– Respondents were asked to rank or rate the cards, such as shown
here for a Computer study on five attributes.
– The credit card example we showed earlier in this training module
is also an example of Traditional Full Profile Conjoint Analysis.
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Strengths & Weaknesses
• Traditional Full-Profile Conjoint Analysis is still used today, but
not as often as other approaches to conjoint analysis.
Strengths:
• Ability to handle a wide variety of problems, including pricing
research
• Simplicity of study execution and utility computation
• The technique leads to individual-level utilities
Weaknesses
• With more than about six attributes, it can become complicated
for respondents
• Sorting or rating cards doesn't come natural for many
respondents
• Since it uses a rating or ranking scale, the estimated part-worths
are not naturally scaled to be predictive of choice probabilities
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Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis
• In recent years, Choice-Based Conjoint, has flourished, and is
now the most popular approach in the world.
• Rather than ask respondents to rate or rank product profiles,
respondents are simply asked to choose their favored product
concept from a set of available options:
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Choice-based Conjoint (CBC)
Options shown to respondents
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Adaptive Conjoint Analysis
• A computer-based form of conjoint analysis
• The interview has three main stages. Respondents are asked to:
– Rate or rank levels within each attribute, based on preferences.
– Rate the importance of each attribute, using a simple rating scale.
– Based on the previous answers (in steps 1 and 2), respondents
compare two product concepts at a time, described typically on
just 2 or 3 of the total list of attributes (a partial-profile display):
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10 areas NOT suited for Conjoint Analysis
1. Simple Trade-Offs
2. One Category
3. Impulse Purchases
4. Complex Purchases
5. Intangible Attributes
6. No Benchmark Price
7. Emerging Opportunity
8. New Features
9. Attribute Quantity
10. Relationship Complexity
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Conjoint Analysis Methods
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Three Main Flavors of Conjoint Analysis
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