ASSIGNMENT

ASSIGNMENT
(Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem)
Q1. Assume that a factory has two machines. Past records show that
machine 1 produces 30% of the terms of output and machine 2
produces 70% of the items. Further, 5% of the items produced by
machine 1 were defective and only 1% produced by machine 2 were
defective. If a defective item is drawn at random, what is the
probability that the defective item was produced by machine 1 or
machine 2? [0.682, 0.318]
Q2. A company uses a ‘selling aptitude test’ in the selection of

salesman. Past experience has shown that only 70% of all persons
applying for a sales position achieved a classification “dissatisfactory”
on actual setting, whereas the remainder was classified as
“satisfactory,” 80% had scored a passing grade on the aptitude test.
Only 25% of those classified unsatisfactory had passed the test on
the basis of this information. What is the probability that a candidate
would be a satisfactory salesman given that he passed the aptitude
test? [0.485]
Q3. An insurance company insured 2,000 scooter drivers 4,000 car

drivers and 6,000 truck drivers. The probability of their accident is
0.1, 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with
an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver.
Q4. A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 persons,

20 of them women and 30 men, 10 of them knowing Hindi and 40
not, 15 of them being teachers and the remaining 35 not. What is the
probability of the University selecting a Hindi-knowing woman
teacher? [3/125]
Q5. In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and

40% respectively of the total output of their output 5%, 4% and 2%
are known to be defective. Find the probability that:
(i) it is produced by machine B [0.4058]
(ii) it Is by machine B or C [0.6376]
Q6. A box of nine golf gloves contains two left-handed and seven
right-handed gloves:
(i) If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without
replacement, what is the probability that – (a) both gloves are right-
handed and (b) one left-handed an one right-handed glove? [7/18]
(ii) If three gloves are selected without replacement what is the
probability that all of them are left-handed. [impossible]
(iii) If two gloved are randomly selected with replacement what is the
probably that they would be right-handed? [49/81]
Q7. In a class of 75 students, 15 were considered to be intelligent, 45

as medium and the rest below average. The probability that a very
intelligent student fails in a viva-voce examination is 0.005, the
medium student falling has a probability of 0.05, and the correspond-
ing probability for a below average student is 0.15. If a student is
known to have passed the viva-voce examination, what is the
probability it that he is below average? [0.181]
Q8. The probability that a management trainee will remain with a

company is 0.60. The probability that an employee earns more than
Rs. 10,000 per month is 0.50. The probability that an employee is a
management trainee who remained with the company or who earns
more than Rs. 10,000 per month is 0.70. What is the probability that
an employee earns more than Rs. 10,000 per month given that he is
a management trainee who stayed with the company? [2/3]
Q9. A box of 100 gaskets contains 10 gaskets with type A defects, 5

gaskets with type B defects and 2 gaskets with both types of defects.
Find the probabilities that
(i) a gasket to be drawn has a type B defect under the condition that
it has a type A defect and,
(ii) a gasket to be drawn has no type B defect under the condition
that it has no typed A defect. [0.2, 0.97]
Q10. A survey conducted over the last 25 years indicated that in 10

years the winter was mild, in 8 years it was cold and in the remaining
7 years it was every cold.
A company sells 2000 woolen coasts in a mild year, 1300 in a cold
year and 2000 in a very cold year.
You are required to find the yearly expected profit of the company if
a woolen coat costs Rs. 1730 and it is sold to stores for Rs. 2480.
[Rs. 1032000]
Q11. From a bag containing 4 white and 6 red balls, three balls are
drawn in random.
(i) Find the expected number of white balls down.
(ii) If each white ball drawn carried a reward of Rs. 4 and each red
balls Rs. 6, find the expected reward of the draw. [1.2, Rs. 15.60]
Q12. What is the expected number of heads appearing when a fair
coin is tossed three times? [1.5]
Q13. 20% of a bank’s account holders have taken loans from the
bank. Among them 95% are males. An account holder is randomly
selected and is found to be a male. What is the probability that he
has a loan with the bank? [0.1915]
Q14. In a railway reservation office, two clerks are engaged in

checking reservation forms. On an average, the first clerks 55% of the
forms, while the second does the remaining. The fist clerk has an
error rate of 0.03 and second has an error rate of 0.02. A reservation
form is selected at random from the total number of forms checked
during a day, and is found to have an error. Find the probabilities that
is was checked by first and second clerk respectively. [6/17]
Q15. Each of the three identical jewellery boxes had 2 drawers. In

each drawer of the first box there is gold watch. In each drawer if the
second box there us a silver watch. In one drawer of the third box
there is a gold watch while in the other drawer there is a silver watch,
what is the probability that the other drawer has the gold watch? [1/3]
Q16. A company has three plants to manufacture 8,000 scooters in a

month. Out of 8,000 scooters, plant I manufactures 4,000 scooters,
plant II manufactures 3,000 scooters and plant III manufactures 1,000
scooters. At plant I 85 out of 100 scooters are rated of standard
quality or better, at plant II only 65 out of 100 scooters are rated of
standard quality or better and at plant III 60 out of 1000 scooters are
rated of standard quality or better. What is the probability that the
scooter selected at random came from (i) plant I, (ii) plant II, and (iii)
plant III if it is known that the scooter is of a standard quality?
[69/119, 39/119, 12/119]
Q17. There are 2 identical boxed containing respectively 4 white and

3 red balls, 3 white and 7 red balls. A box is chosen at random and a
ball is drawn from it. Find the probability that the ball is white. If the
ball is white, what is the probability that it is from the first box?
[61/140, 21/61]
Q18. Probability that a man will be alive 25 years hence is 0.3 and the
probability that his wife will be alive 25 years hence is 0.4. Find the
probability that 25 years hence
(i) Both will be alive (ii) Only the man will be alive
(iii) Only the woman will be alive (iv) None will be alive
(v) At least one of them will be alive [0.12, 0.18, 0.28, 0.42, 0.58]
Q19. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is

2/3 and the probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9.
If the probability of getting at least one contractor is 4/5, what is the
probability that he will get both the contracts? [14/45]
Q20. A pair of dice is rolled. If the sum of the two dice is 9, find the
probability that one of the dice showed 3. [0.5]
Q21. Two digits are selected at random from the digits 1 through 9.
Find: (a) The probability that their sum is even. [4/9]
(b) If the sum is even, find the probability that both digits are odd.[5/8]
Q22. A bag contains 2 white balls and 3 black balls. Four persons A, B,
C, and D in the order named, each draw one ball and do not replace
it. The first to draw a white ball receives Rs. 20. Determine their
expectations. [8, 6, 4, 2]
Q23. If a random variable X assumes the values 0 & 1 with P(X=0)=3

P(X=1), then V(X) is:
(i) 1/16 (ii) 2/16 (iii) 3/16 (iv) 4/16
Q24. A buyer will accept certain lot of TV tuners if a sample of three

picked at random contains at the most one defective. What is the
probability that he will accept the lost of twenty tuners if it contains
four defectives? [112/125]
Q25. A man has five coins, one of which has two heads. He randomly
takes out a coin and tosses it three times:
(i) What is the probability that it will fall head upward all the times?
(ii) If it always falls head upward, what is the probability that it is the
coin with two heads. [(i) 3/10 (ii) 2/3]

ASSIGNMENT - Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem

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(Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem)

Q2. A company uses a ‘selling aptitude test’ in the selection of

Q3. An insurance company insured 2,000 scooter drivers 4,000 car

Q4. A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 persons,

Q5. In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and

Q7. In a class of 75 students, 15 were considered to be intelligent, 45

Q8. The probability that a management trainee will remain with a

Q9. A box of 100 gaskets contains 10 gaskets with type A defects, 5

Q10. A survey conducted over the last 25 years indicated that in 10

Q14. In a railway reservation office, two clerks are engaged in

Q15. Each of the three identical jewellery boxes had 2 drawers. In

Q16. A company has three plants to manufacture 8,000 scooters in a

Q17. There are 2 identical boxed containing respectively 4 white and

Q19. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is

Q23. If a random variable X assumes the values 0 & 1 with P(X=0)=3

Q24. A buyer will accept certain lot of TV tuners if a sample of three

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