Rail Feasibility Study Draft
Rail Feasibility Study Draft
Rail Feasibility Study Draft
DRAFT
FEBRUARY 2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SECTION 1- INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................1
SECTION 2- STUDY CORRIDOR CHARACTERISTICS ..................................................6
SECTION 3- RAIL SERVICE OPTIONS AND STATIONS ................................................9
SECTION 4- OPERATING STATISTICS .......................................................................16
SECTION 5- CAPITAL COSTS ....................................................................................19
SECTION 6- OPERATING COSTS ...............................................................................24
SECTION 7- POTENTIAL RIDERSHIP.........................................................................28
SECTION 8- FUTURE STEPS .....................................................................................31
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1-1 RAIL LINES IN NEW MEXICO .....................................................................2
Figure 1-2 RAIL RUNNER MAP ....................................................................................4
Figure 3-1 El Paso-Las Cruces or Dona Ana Alternative.............................................11
Figure 3-2 El Paso-Spaceport Alternative ...................................................................13
Figure 3-3 El Paso-Albuquerque Alternative...............................................................15
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2-1 POPULATION IN CITIES ALONG RAIL CORRIDOR .......................................7
Table 4-1 ESTIMATED ONE-WAY TRAVEL TIMES .....................................................16
Table 4-2 VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS ........................................................................17
Table 4-3 DAILY SERVICE STATISTICS .....................................................................17
Table 4-4 ANNUAL SERVICE STATISTICS..................................................................18
Table 5-1 CAPITAL COST BASIS FOR LOW AND HIGH ESTIMATES ..........................21
Table 5-2 QUANTITIES BY ALTERNATIVE .................................................................22
Table 5-3 ORDER-OF-MAGNITUDE CAPITAL COST SUMMARY.................................22
Table 6-1 2006 Rail Runner Operating Statistics/System Characteristics..................24
Table 6-2 O&M Cost Model Unit Costs.......................................................................25
Table 6-3 O&M Cost Estimates for Southcentral New Mexico Alignments ..................27
Table 7-1 2007 Commuter Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts....................................29
Table 7-2 2007 Regional Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts.......................................29
Table 7-3 2020 Commuter Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts....................................30
Table 7-4 2020 Regional Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts.......................................30
APPENDICES
Station-to-Station Travel Times
Rail Runner Express Zone Based Fares
TOC
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
This report supports the Southern Central Council of Government’s (SCCOG) efforts to
develop a Service and Financial Plan for the South Central Regional Transit District
(SCRTD). One of the objectives of this effort is to conduct a feasibility study of
passenger rail connecting the El Paso metro area and southern Dona Ana County to
the Spaceport in Sierra County, and ultimately north to meet Rail Runner.
Two rail corridors relate to the Southcentral RTD area. The Burlington Northern
Santa Fe (BNSF) El Paso Subdivision passes from El Paso through Las Cruces to
Belen, joining the BNSF Glorieta Subdivision into Albuquerque and beyond. The
Union Pacific (UP) Carrizozo Subdivision proceeds from El Paso through Alamogordo,
Vaughn and Tucumcari into Texas. These corridors can be seen in Figure 1-1
showing rail lines in New Mexico.
This feasibility study focuses on the El Paso Subdivision, since it is best able to serve
the existing major density in Las Cruces County as well as the future Spaceport site.
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Figure 1-1
RAIL LINES IN NEW MEXICO
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Passenger rail refers to the carrying of passengers on vehicles running along railways
or railroads. Intercity rail refers to express train passenger services that cover long
distances, such as what Amtrak operates. Intercity rail usually involves a locomotive
hauling passenger vehicles. Commuter rail usually is oriented to work trips between
a central city and adjacent suburbs. The common practice in the western United
States is to use passenger cars drawn by locomotives. The following description of
commuter rail is provided by the American Public Transit Association:1
“Commuter rail (also called metropolitan rail, regional rail, or suburban rail)
is an electric or diesel propelled railway for urban passenger train service
consisting of local short distance travel operating between a central city and
adjacent suburbs. Service must be operated on a regular basis by or under
contract with a transit operator for the purpose of transporting passengers
within urbanized areas, or between urbanized areas and outlying areas. Such
rail service, using either locomotive hauled or self propelled railroad passenger
cars, is generally characterized by multi-trip tickets, specific station to station
fares, railroad employment practices and usually only one or two stations in the
central business district. Intercity rail service is excluded, except for that
portion of such service that is operated by or under contract with a public
transit agency for predominantly commuter services, which means that for any
given trip segment (i.e., distance between any two stations), more than 50% of
the average daily ridership travels on the train at least three times a week.”
Commuter rail routes are typically from 20 to 50 miles in length. Railway track is
often shared with freight trains or intercity trains. Station spacing is typically
anywhere from 3 to 8 miles apart, depending on the environment. Longer distances
between stations allow more competitive travel times, whereas shorter distances
between stations provide better local access.
Other types of rail transit, including heavy rail (metro, subway, rapid transit, or
rapid rail) and light rail (streetcar, tramway or trolley) are used within urbanized
settings. These types of transit are not applicable to the corridor under study.
1 http://www.apta.com/research/stats/rail/definitions.cfm
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Figure 1-2
RAIL RUNNER MAP
Source: nmrailrunner.com
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SECTION 2
STUDY CORRIDOR CHARACTERISTICS
The BNSF El Paso Subdivision extends 241 miles from El Paso to Isleta (north of
Belen), where it joins the Glorieta Subdivision to proceed another 10 miles or so to
Albuquerque. The rail right-of-way begins in the railyard area south of Union Station
in El Paso. It proceeds northward through an industrial area and gravel pit, parallel
to West Paisano Drive. In the vicinity of Race Track Drive, the rail line begins to
parallel Doniphan Drive which becomes Main Street/Highway 478 as it continues
northwesterly to Las Cruces County. South of Idaho Avenue in Las Cruces, Main
Street diverges as the right-of-way continues to the west in between Compress Road
and Melendres Street. North of downtown Las Cruces the right-of-way roughly
parallels Dona Ana Road and Route 185 – I-25 to Rincon.
The BNSF rail line passes a number of communities and cities ranging from fairly
minimal populations to significant-sized cities. The first significant community north
of El Paso is Sunland Park, a relatively dense area with regional attractions such as
the Sunland Park Mall (on the east side of I-10 rather than the west side containing
the rail right-of-way) and the Sunland Park Race Track and Casino. North of Sunland
Park are communities such as Canutillo, Vinton, Anthony and Berino which have
community-level development oriented toward Doniphan Drive (Highway 20). The
right-of-way then runs adjacent to largely agricultural uses from Vado to Mesquite,
approaching Mesilla Park which is adjacent to New Mexico State University. North of
Mesilla Park is downtown Las Cruces, with Las Cruces being by far the largest city
between El Paso and Albuquerque. North of downtown Las Cruces is Dona Ana,
which begins to make the transition back to agricultural uses which are then
dominant through to Rincon.
North of Rincon the the right-of-way passes through mostly desert for the next 90
miles or so, passing the Spaceport site north of Upham (near Cutter). Agricultural
uses pick up at San Antonio, northward to Socorro, San Acacia, La Joya, Sabinal and
Belen.
Belen serves as the southern terminus of Rail Runner. From Belen to downtown
Albuquerque is another 30 miles, using the remaining segment of the El Paso
Subdivision which merges onto the Glorieta Subdivision at Isleta.
Table 2-1 provides the population of incorporated cities along the alignment, south to
north, as reported in the 2000 Census. The anchoring cities of El Paso and
Albuquerque have the greatest populations by far with around 500,000 residents, with
El Paso exceeding Albuquerque. Las Cruces is the largest city between these two
anchors with a population of over 74,000. Other notable concentrations of at least
5,000 occur at Sunland Park, Canutillo, Anthony, Socorro and Belen.
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Table 2-1
POPULATION IN CITIES ALONG RAIL CORRIDOR
POPULATION
CITY
2000 Census
El Paso 563,700
Canutillo 5,100
Vinton 1,900
Anthony 7.900
Vado 3,000
Mesquite 1,000
Rincon 200
Socorro 8,900
Belen 6,900
Albuquerque 449,000
Note: Reporting limited to census cities,
ordered south-to-north along route.
The track along the El Paso Subdivision is in generally good condition. Most of the
right-of-way is single track, with double track in only a couple of stretches and sidings
in about a dozen locations.
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These limitations would be difficult to work around if there was a high volume of
trains using the route. However, train traffic is limited to several daily trains along
with some local activity. There is occasional service that heads into and out of Mexico.
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SECTION 3
RAIL SERVICE OPTIONS AND STATIONS
Overview
Rail service along the 250-mile right-of-way from El Paso to Albuquerque can be
structured in a number of ways. This section explores service options in terms of
length, frequency, and communities served.
The full distance from El Paso to Albuquerque exceeds what would be considered a
typical commute served by a commuter rail line. Census journey-to-work data
suggests that very little commute demand between El Paso and Albuquerque exists (to
be described in a later section on potential ridership). The substantial segment of the
right-of-way traveling through undeveloped land would provide little opportunity for
travel to interim points unless a large-scale development (such as Spaceport) comes
into fruition.
Passenger travel along the full length of this distance can be seen more as an intercity
rail service if operated by a carrier such as Amtrak, since it would provide links to
their overall system. Since this corridor is being explored outside of this context, the
corridor is distinguished as regional rail to suggest that instead of focusing strictly on
commute trips, this route serves the purpose of providing connections to greater
regions within New Mexico. To serve such a long corridor, the focus would be to
target only key populations and/or significant interceptors along the length of the
route. Serving the many interim communities along such a long corridor would overly
burden the travel time while offering minimal additional ridership.
However, a more manageable rail corridor with a shorter distance could offer improved
access to communities along the route. A logical corridor for such service would be
from El Paso to Las Cruces, a 43-mile route. This route follows the more typical
commuter rail definition in terms of its length and is anchored by two significant
populations.
The following discussion will explore the potential service patterns listed below:
• El Paso to Downtown Las Cruces or Dona Ana
• El Paso to Spaceport
• El Paso to Albuquerque
The most significant ridership along the full BNSF corridor would occur between El
Paso and Las Cruces, based on demographics and journey-to-work information (see
section regarding potential ridership). This route would cover a distance of about 43
miles (El Paso to Las Cruces) to 48 miles (El Paso to Dona Ana). For this distance,
station spacing averaging 5 to 8 miles would be appropriate to offer a balance of
community access while still providing competitive travel times to the automobile.
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A total of eight to nine stations along the entire route is envisioned. The following
station locations have been assumed for purposes of planning, based on serving the
most populated communities along the route:
While representative station locations are noted, these should be considered for
planning purposes only, to be refined in subsequent planning efforts.
Service is envisioned to initiate from the Union Depot in downtown El Paso. Some
track arrangement to switch onto Union Pacific tracks would be likely to provide the
most convenient access for the approach to the station.
Figure 3-1 illustrates the route and representative stations for this alternative.
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Figure 3-1
El Paso-Las Cruces or Dona Ana Alternative
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For purposes of planning, daily service levels are assumed to be patterned after Rail
Runner service in Northcentral New Mexico. A representative schedule assumes eight
trains in each direction throughout the day. This translates to bi-directional service
mostly focused on the morning and evening peak period commutes. For this analysis,
only weekday service is assumed.
El Paso to Spaceport
The development of the Spaceport site would trigger consideration of train service as a
convenient way to get workers to the site, since the rail right-of-way is adjacent to the
site. The most manageable way to offer at least minimal service to the Spaceport is to
serve it from the south. The corridor from El Paso to Spaceport is nearly 104 miles.
Given this long distance, the service best operates with very selective stops focused at
high-volume locations.
This type of service could operate as an overlay of the El Paso-Las Cruces service,
whereby the El Paso to Las Cruces line operates with frequent stops while the El Paso
to Spaceport line skips community stops to provide more of an express ride.
Figure 3-2 illustrates the route and representative stations for this alternative.
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Figure 3-2
El Paso-Spaceport Alternative
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El Paso to Albuquerque
A final scenario provides service along the full length of the El Paso Subdivision from
El Paso to Belen, then continues onto the Glorieta Subdivision to travel the final leg to
Albuquerque. The full distance is about 253 miles. Again, due to the long length of
the corridor, a minimal number of stops are assumed.
This type of service could operate as an overlay of the El Paso-Las Cruces service,
whereby the El Paso to Las Cruces line operates with frequent stops while the El Paso
to Albuquerque line skips community stops to provide more of an express ride.
Figure 3-3 illustrates the route and representative stations for this alternative.
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Figure 3-3
El Paso-Albuquerque Alternative
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SECTION 4
OPERATING STATISTICS
Table 4-1
ESTIMATED ONE-WAY TRAVEL TIMES
NUMBER OF ESTIMATED
DISTANCE
SERVICE OPTION ASSUMED ONE-WAY TRAVEL
(IN MILES)
STATIONS TIME
Vehicle requirements are determined as a function of how many trainsets are needed
to provide the specified level of service. The number of daily trains takes into account
the ability of a train to be “recycled” once it has completed its trip. Once daily trains
are established, this determines the number of locomotives. The number of passenger
cars is based on an expected maximum load of passengers. At this stage of analysis,
it is assumed that demand can be handled with two passenger cars for all scenarios.
A spare ratio of 20% (rounded to a whole vehicle) is applied. Table 4-2 summarizes
resulting vehicle requirements for each alternative.
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Table 4-2
VEHICLE REQUIREMENTS
DAILY PASSENGER
SERVICE OPTION LOCOMOTIVES
TRAINS CARS
Daily revenue car-miles sums the revenue miles of each passenger car on a daily
basis. Daily revenue train-hours calculate the hours of revenue service of each train
on a daily basis. Table 4-3 summarizes daily revenue car-miles and daily revenue
train-hours.
Table 4-3
DAILY SERVICE STATISTICS
DAILY DAILY
SERVICE OPTION REVENUE REVENUE
CAR-MILES TRAIN-HOURS
Daily service statistics are factored to produce annual service statistics, which are the
basis for calculating operating costs. For this analysis, 254 annual weekdays are
assumed, leading to the annual service statistics listed in Table 4-4:
SCRTD Service and Financial Plan
Rail Feasibility Study
Table 4-4
ANNUAL SERVICE STATISTICS
ANNUAL ANNUAL
SERVICE OPTION REVENUE REVENUE
CAR-MILES TRAIN-HOURS
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SECTION 5
CAPITAL COSTS
Capital costs refer to the elements related to purchasing land, construction, facilities
and equipment in order to produce the project. In this case, development of rail
service along the El Paso Subdivision requires the following major capital cost
elements:
Right-of-way/Property Acquisition
Perhaps the largest unknown is the cost of either acquiring the entire El Paso
Subdivision, or obtaining trackage rights to operate along all or a portion of the route.
In the case of Rail Runner, the agreement with BNSF led to the purchase of the rail
line and associated right-of-way from Belen, New Mexico to the Colorado state line
(270 miles of track, rights-of-way,etc.) for $75 million.
The cost of purchasing right-of-way may not be meaningful being expressed on a per-
mile basis, because the railroads may require the purchase of more than what is
strictly required for immediate project use. For example, even if the defined project is
a commuter rail service from El Paso to Las Cruces, BNSF may want to negotiate the
purchase of the entire El Paso subdivision as the price of entry.
Outside of Rail Runner, other commuter rail properties have paid significantly higher
costs to acquire right-of-way. The Utah Transit Authority (UTA) purchased about 175
miles of right-of-way (some portions without track) for $185 million in 2002; the
Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA) purchased about 340 miles of
track and rights-of-way for a total of $705 million between 1991 and 2000.2
The length of track from El Paso to Belen is about 223 miles, compared to the 270
miles purchased under the Rail Runner transactions. For purposes of this analysis,
two estimates are provided: a low estimate (based on similar conditions to Rail
Runner) and a high estimate (based on conditions more similar to other commuter rail
properties). For the low estimate, a placeholder of $75 million will be applied to all
scenarios for right-of-way, based on the theory that BNSF will want to sell the entire
subdivision rather than a portion of it. For the high estimate, a placeholder of $250
million will be applied to all scenarios, which represents more similarity to the UTA
transaction which averaged a little more than $1 million per mile.
2Belen to Santa Fe Commuter Rail Project Overview and Status of Project Elements, New Mexico
Department of Transportation/MRCOG, October 8, 2008.
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It is clear that modifications would need to be made in order to make the El Paso
Subdivision suitable for passenger service. At a minimum, a block signal system
would need to be installed to ensure a safe and effective method for minimizing train
conflicts in opposite directions. It is anticipated that certain sections of the route
would require a second track to allow opposing trains to pass. The extent of double-
tracking depends on the service plan.
A segment of the Rail Runner service from Isleta to Belen uses the El Paso
Subdivision. Much of the signal and trackwork that was needed to initiate Rail
Runner service was focused on that section. While a precise breakdown is not
available, the total budget for all improvements from Belen to Bernalilo was $30
million. It can be assumed that perhaps 60 percent of this budget was for the portion
of the route using the El Paso Subdivision, which is about an 18-mile segment. This
would translate to about $1 million per mile.
In other commuter rail systems, this cost is on the low side. For commuter rail
systems such as Metrolink (Southern California area) and Sounder (Seattle region),
such costs were more in the order of $10 to $12 million per mile.
For purposes of this analysis, the low estimate will be based on $1 million per mile
similar to Rail Runner’s experience, and the high estimate will be based on $10 million
per mile, similar to Metrolink or Sounder.
Stations
Rail Runner spent about $2 million per station. Stations can be as simple as
providing a platform and canopy, to a more elaborate facility involving a building and
bathroom facilities. For this alignment, the El Paso Depot is an active train station for
Amtrak service. The downtown Las Cruces Depot already is restored, currently
housing the Railroad Museum, and can readily accommodate passenger service. At
Mesilla Park, an old depot exists and can potentially be restored. On the northern
end, Belen and Albuquerque stations are already in place. For all other stations,
simple platforms would be adequate. A reasonable assumption to use for purposes of
this study is $2 million per station.
Maintenance Yard
Rail Runner was able to obtain an eight-to-nine acre site in downtown Albuquerque as
part of the right-of-way acquisition package. Rail Runner budgeted about $5 million
for the actual construction of the maintenance facility with offices, a covered area,
service pit and track. A reasonable assumption to use for purposes of this study is a
slightly higher cost of $6 million.
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Vehicles
Rail Runner spent $2 million per locomotive, and about $2.3 million per bi-level
passenger car. This analysis uses slightly higher costs to account for inflation, $2.2
million per locomotive and $2.5 million per passenger car.
Table 5-1 summarizes the assumptions used for creating a low estimate and high
estimate for capital costs. The only two categories where a range is explored is for
right-of-way and trackwork/signals. The remaining cost items (locomotives, passenger
cars, stations and maintenance facility) have less potential for wide variation so are
kept constant.
Table 5-1
CAPITAL COST BASIS FOR LOW AND HIGH ESTIMATES
Table 5-2 provides quantities by alternative. Note that quantities for the regional
routes from El Paso to Spaceport or Albuquerque assume that a base project from El
Paso to Las Cruces already exists.
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Table 5-2
QUANTITIES BY ALTERNATIVE
El Paso –
El Paso – El Paso – El Paso –
COST ITEM Las Cruces
Dona Ana Spaceport Albuquerque
(base project)
0 0
Right-of-Way fixed fixed
(assumes base) (assumes base)
61.1 miles 180.1 miles
Trackwork, Signals 42.6 miles 48.2 miles
(assumes base) (assumes base)
Locomotives 5 5 2 2
Passenger Cars 10 10 3 3
1 2
Stations 8 9
(assumes base) (assumes base)
0 0
Maintenance Facility 1 1
(assumes base) (assumes base)
Table 5-3
ORDER-OF-MAGNITUDE CAPITAL COST SUMMARY
El Paso – Spaceport
$75 $625
(assumes base project)
El Paso – Albuquerque
$200 $1,800
(assumes base project)
The resulting range in costs is so marked as to provide little guidance. The wide
variation is due to the following unknowns:
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• The terms of using the right-of-way are a large unknown. BNSF may allow
trackage rights for all or a segment of the right-of-way, or it may end up being
more beneficial to purchase the right-of-way outright. The deal negotiated for
Rail Runner service suggests that a similar arrangement can be possible, but
experience from other agencies suggests the potential for costs to be far higher.
• Trackwork and signal costs for Phase 1 of the Rail Runner project (which
included a portion of the El Paso Subdivision right-of-way) were fairly minimal,
compared to experience from other agencies. Because of the mileages involved
in the alternatives, differences in resulting capital cost become aggravated.
• Both of these high-variance cost items can best be resolved once actual
negotiations with BNSF occur.
The capital cost analysis confirms that if similar terms can be reached as was
available for the Rail Runner, passenger rail service along this corridor can be
achieved at a very affordable capital cost. To the extent that terms approach other
agencies’ experiences, the capital cost along this corridor has the potential to balloon.
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SECTION 6
OPERATING COSTS
A commuter/regional rail operating and maintenance (O&M) cost model was developed
to estimate costs for various commuter and regional rail routes under study in
Southcentral New Mexico. The unit-cost based O&M model is calibrated to the start-
up operating statistics and system characteristics, and costs for New Mexico Rail
Runner Express service. Calibration data were derived from many sources, including
the agency’s website, reports, and telephone interviews with key staff.
The O&M cost model’s calibration operating statistics and service characteristics are
listed in Table 6-1. Revenue train-hours and passenger car-miles were not provided by
Rail Runner Express staff, so these statistics were estimated using published
schedules and other sources. The operating statistics were adjusted with more recent
data based on actual Rail Runner revenue service, which commenced in July 2006.
Table 6-1
2006 Rail Runner Operating Statistics/System Characteristics
Rail Runner
Operating Statistic/System Characteristic 2006
Annual Revenue Train-Hours 2,379
Annual Revenue Passenger Car-Miles 211,166
Peak Trains 3
Route Miles 51.0
Stations 9
Maintenance Facilities/Yards 1
Peak Passenger Vehicles 6
SOURCE: FY 06/07 New Mexico Rail Runner Express Operating Budget Summary
Phase I Belen to Bernalillo, and February 2009 telephone interview with Rail Runner
staff.
Rail Runner’s start-up budget was adjusted slightly to reflect more current, actual cost
data, which was integrated into the O&M cost model and represent 2008 dollars. Cost
drivers, represented by operating statistics and system characteristics, were assigned
to each cost item based on industry guidelines and standards. Unit costs were derived
by dividing budgeted costs by the value of the cost driver for each cost item. Unit costs
based on Rail Runner’s 2006 operating statistics and system characteristics, and
adjusted budget are presented in Table 6-2.
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The Agency’s direct costs include the administration of services associated with
customer service, planning, contract maintenance, and station maintenance,
marketing (advertising media and printed materials), and insurance claims
administration.
Table 6-2
O&M Cost Model Unit Costs
Cost Unit
Cost Item Type Driver Cost
• Fuel represents the cost of diesel fuel for locomotives. The costs estimated by
the O&M cost model could vary significantly if rolling stock operated in
Southcentral New Mexico is different from Rail Runner’s equipment. This
expense also can fluctuate widely with market conditions and negotiated
purchase agreements. Assumptions regarding fuel costs will be refined in
subsequent studies.
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Non-Vehicle Maintenance:
General Administration:
Rail Runner’s cost of $75,000 a year for Property Management was not included in the
cost model because it is associated with track ownership, which is not assumed for
the Southcentral commuter rail alignments.
In order to estimate O&M costs, it was first necessary to develop operating plans and
requirements for each project alignment. Operating Plans were prepared for four
Southcentral New Mexico scenarios:
Operating plans defined peak and base period headways, route lengths and route
travel times for each project alignment. The operating plans were entered into an
operating statistics (operstat) worksheet. The operstat worksheet provides for each rail
line the peak and total fleet size, annual revenue car-miles, and annual revenue train-
hours based on headways, travel times and distances, and analysis of peak hour
passenger loads to size train consists. Travel times are calculated using an algorithm
that accounts for maximum speed, geometry, distance between stops,
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acceleration/deceleration near stops, dwell times at stops, and average delay expected
at intersections.
The total annual operating costs range from $5.6 million (2008$) for the El Paso -
Spaceport alignment to $13.3 million for the El Paso – Dona Ana alignment. While the
Spaceport and Albuquerque options operate far longer distances than the options to
Las Cruces and Dona Ana, the longer services are based on one round trip daily
whereas the Las Cruces and Dona Ana services are based on a far richer level of
service at eight round trips daily. O&M cost estimates for each alignment are
presented in Table 6-3.
Table 6-3
O&M Cost Estimates for Southcentral New Mexico Alignments
Annual
Alignment O&M Cost
(millions)
El Paso – Downtown Las Cruces $12.4
El Paso – Las Cruces – Dona Ana $13.3
El Paso – Spaceport $5.6
El Paso – Albuquerque $9.6
Costs in 2008 dollars.
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SECTION 7
POTENTIAL RIDERSHIP
Ridership forecasts were prepared for commuter rail options between El Paso and Las
Cruces and for a regional rail route connecting El Paso, Las Cruces, Spaceport, and
optionally reaching Albuquerque. Forecasts were developed for a base year of 2007 as
well as a target year of 2020. Data sources included: the 2000 US Census, 2004-2006
Longitudinal Employment and Household Dynamics (LEHD), the El Paso MPO regional
travel demand model, and population and employment projections from various New
Mexico and Texas authorities.
First, base year 2007 work trip tables were developed from the 2000 Census Journey-
to-Work data (CTPP Part 3 – Worker Flows). For the commuter rail corridor, trips were
collected at the census tract level and organized into rail station districts. Since the
regional rail route has only one station per county, journey-to-work trips at the county
level were used to represent station districts. These year 2000 trip tables were
factored up to 2007 using population and employment estimates from the Bureau of
Business and Economic Research at the University of New Mexico (BBER), the New
Mexico Economic Development Department (NMEDD), and the Texas State Data
Center and Office of the State Demographer (TxSDC).
To account for deficiencies in the reporting of interstate work trips in the Census data,
as well as to improve the overall accuracy of the trip tables, the Census tables were
modified by estimates of worker flows as reported in El Paso MPO’s 2007 trip tables
and 2004-2006 LEHD data (which is compiled from the US Census, American
Community Survey, and federal and state labor departments records). To
acknowledge the variability between these data sources, both low range and high
range trip tables were estimated for total work trips in each rail corridor.
The greatest uncertainty in this analysis comes in determining how many of the work
trips between two given station districts could be expected to use the proposed transit
investment. Currently, no intercity public transit options exist in this corridor,
although city transit agencies such as Sun Metro in El Paso and RoadRUNNER in Las
Cruces provide local service in the vicinity of some stations. Private transit options
include over-the-road coaches with stops in El Paso, Las Cruces, Truth or
Consequences, and Albuquerque, and direct flights between El Paso and Albuquerque.
Without comparable existing services in place, rail trip shares were based on factoring
means of transportation data available in the Journey-to-Work files. National
averages for a rail investment’s ability to capture total work trips were variably applied
to the trip tables. Highest rail trip shares were applied to the few existing transit trips
in the Census data, moderate rail trip shares were applied to existing HOV trips, and
lowest rail trip shares were applied to existing drive alone trips. Likewise, longer-haul
trips or trip destinations with a strong feeder transit system – which research shows to
increase the attractiveness of commuter and regional rail – were allotted higher rail
shares than short-haul trips or trip destinations with limited feeder service.
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Applying these rail shares stratified by trip interchange to the 2007 commuter rail
work trip tables produced an overall commuter rail work trip share within the corridor
ranging from 2.9% to 3.3%. This share level is commensurate with current experience
in other commuter rail corridors.
Since the Census Journey-to-Work data only captures the home-to-workplace part of
the trip, commuter and regional rail work trips were factored to account for the reverse
workplace-to-home trip. To capture the non-work trips that would likely be made on
the services, the rail work trip estimate was divided by 75% to arrive at a typical base
weekday ridership estimate. This factor was based on existing commuter rail system
estimates for work vs. non-work travel, as well as analysis of the work vs. non-work
destinations available on each rail route. Finally, the base weekday ridership estimate
was tested using industry-standard demand elasticities for service frequency, travel
time, average fare, along with other factors to understand riders’ responses to service
variation.
This methodology produced an average weekday ridership range for commuter rail
between El Paso and Las Cruces in base year 2007 of 4,700 to 8,000. Adding an
optional end-of-line station in Doña Ana increases these forecasts by 100 daily riders.
Table 1 details these results.
Table 7-1
2007 Commuter Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts
Daily
Endpoints Stations Weekday Riders
One-Way Trips
El Paso - Las Cruces 8 16 4,700 – 8,000
El Paso - Dona Ana 9 16 4,800 – 8,100
As mentioned above, differences in the lower and upper bounds of the range are
primarily due to the uncertainty present in total trip data sources. Additionally, all
high range forecasts assume additional investment beyond the norm in supporting
feeder services and station amenities (i.e., parking, transit-oriented development,
security, branding, etc.). Identical operating plan characteristics (headways, travel
times, etc.) were used for the lower and upper estimates.
Average weekday ridership in 2007 for regional rail operating between El Paso and
Spaceport was estimated at 90 to 100. Note that this total does not account for any
demand to Spaceport itself, as it is not existent in 2007. Extending the regional rail
service all the way up to Albuquerque roughly doubles these estimates. These results
are presented in Table 2.
Table 7-2
2007 Regional Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts
Daily
Endpoints Stations Weekday Riders
One-Way Trips
El Paso - Spaceport 3 2 90 – 100
El Paso – Albuquerque 6 2 170 – 200
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Target year 2020 forecasts started with the overall work trip tables developed for base
year 2007 and factored them up by BBER and TxSDC population forecasts and El
Paso MPO model data for years 2015 and 2025. For the regional rail analysis,
employment estimates for 2020 as reported in the Futron Corporation report, “New
Mexico Commercial Spaceport Economic Impact Study” (2005), were included in the
trip totals. From here, the same methodology as described above was used to account
for reverse workplace-to-home trip ends, non-work trips, operating plans, and station
amenities and feeder services.
In 2020, average weekday ridership for commuter rail between El Paso and Las Cruces
is predicted to be 5,800 to 11,700. Adding an optional end-of-line station in Doña Ana
increases these forecasts by 200 daily riders (Table 3).
Table 7-3
2020 Commuter Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts
Daily
Endpoints Stations Weekday Riders
One-Way Trips
El Paso - Las Cruces 8 16 5,800 – 11,700
El Paso - Dona Ana 9 16 6,000 – 11,900
For 2020 regional rail, service from El Paso to Spaceport is estimated at 460 to 660,
and service from El Paso to Albuquerque is predicted to be between 550 and 790
(Table 4).
Table 7-4
2020 Regional Rail Weekday Ridership Forecasts
Daily
Endpoints Stations Weekday Riders
One-Way Trips
El Paso - Spaceport 3 2 460 – 660
El Paso - Albuquerque 6 2 550 – 790
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SECTION 8
FUTURE STEPS
This report has attempted to identify the potential service levels, capital and operating
costs, and ridership associated with various options for initiating passenger rail
service on the BNSF right-of-way. This final section discusses future steps, should the
SCRTD choose to pursue passenger rail service. The identified steps are largely based
on the experience in initiating Rail Runner passenger service. Many of these steps can
be pursued concurrently.
The immediate next step would be to begin discussions with BNSF Railroad. In the
case of Rail Runner, the Mid-Region Council of Governments (MRCOG) and New
Mexico Department of Transportation (NMDOT) procured a consultant with expertise
in negotiating with the railroads. BNSF asked to be provided with service plan details
to allow them to identify what improvements would be made in order to accommodate
passenger service. In this case, it is clear that at a minimum some type of track-based
signal system would need to be installed since the current right-of-way has no
signaling whatsoever, relying on track warrant control (dispatching approval between
two identified points) which limits maximum speeds to 49 mph. Other improvements
such as extending siding/double-tracking certain segments or improving road
crossings might also be identified.
This study provides general locations for potential stations, but future work would
include a more precise definition of station locations, including associated parking
needs. The location of an appropriate site for a maintenance yard would need to be
determined. An understanding of where sidings should be extended or added would
also need to occur.
Environmental Assessment
Once the basic project is outlined, a determination should be made regarding the
appropriate level of environmental analysis. Increasing the amount of rail service on
an existing rail corridor typically does not trigger the need to do environmental
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clearance, but project elements such as stations with significant parking or locating
the maintenance facility may require environmental clearance.
Procurement of rolling stock can involve years of lead time to allow for production, so
this is often an early effort once the funding and commitment to the project is secure.
Some options exist that can reduce the wait for delivery: off-the-shelf vehicles may be
available; arrangements can be made with another agency with an existing option with
a manufacturer that can be exercised; or vehicles can be leased.
Other Activities
Features such as branding the service and establishing a fare structure would also
need to be addressed. Rail Runner performed a market survey to help establish what
would be considered a reasonable fare structure, and ended up with a zone-based fare
system involving very affordable fares from $1 (for a single trip within one zone) to $7
(for the longest single trip using six zones). Rail Runner also offers discounts for day
passes, monthly passes and annual passes, as well as weekend service. Discounts are
also offered to the elderly and disabled, and children under 10 years of age are free.
Conclusions
The El Paso Subdivision appears to have readily-usable track for passenger rail
operations, though it is clear that some type of track-based signal system would have
to be installed. This report outlines potential service plans, capital costs, operating
costs, and ridership associated with establishing passenger rail service. The next step
would involve discussions with BNSF. If a deal can be structured with similar terms
to the Rail Runner experience, then project costs can be kept to a minimum.
Otherwise, costs can quickly spiral due to the long lengths of mileage involved.
The strongest potential for rail service along this corridor is the 45-mile route between
El Paso and downtown Las Cruces. Piloting a premium bus service on this corridor
may allow a better understanding of what the potential market is for this service, and
can serve to build ridership.
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APPENDICES
STATION-TO-STATION TRAVEL TIMES
RAIL RUNNER EXPRESS ZONE BASED FARES
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EL PASO-LAS CRUCES
PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE
based on improving speeds to 60mph
Max.Speed Distance (miles) Run Time Delay Time Dwell Time Time (minutes)
Station Parking (mph) Increment Stn-Stn Cumulative (minutes) (minutes) (minutes) Increment Stn-Stn Cumulative
NOTES:
1. Maximum spe eds are based on signal improvements; while improvements allow up to 79mph, functional op erating speed for this scenario assumed to be 60mph maximum.
2. Distances and locations based on BNSF website .
3. Minimal intersectio n delay assu med (based on 0.1 minutes per mil e).
SCRTD Service and Financial Plan
Rail Feasibility Study
EL PASO-ALBUQUERQUE
PASSENGER RAIL SERVICE
based on improving speeds to operate at 60-79mph
Max.Speed Distance (miles) Run Time Delay Time Dwell Time Time (minutes)
Station Parking (mph) Increment Stn-Stn Cumulative (minutes) (minutes) (minutes) Increment Stn-Stn Cumulative
NOTES:
1. Maximum spe eds are based on signal improvements; while improvements allow up to 79mph, slower operating speeds assumed at each end of the route.
2. Distances and locations based on BNSF website .
3. Minimal intersectio n delay assu med (based on 0.1 minutes per mil e).
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The NM Rail Runner Express uses a zone-based fare structure. The amount you pay for your ticket is determined by the distance you travel,
so that shorter trips cost less than longer ones. All stations have been subdivided into zones for this purpose.
STEP 3: check the charts below and see how much your fare is
When you buy your tickets online, you'll receive a discount. Tickets are $1 off of a day pass and $10 off of a
monthly or annual pass. The online discounts do not apply to one way tickets.
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FULL FARE
1 TRIP
Day Pass Monthly Pass Annual Pass
1 Zone $1 $2 $35 $350
($1 online) ($25 online) ($340 online)
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1 TRIP
Day Pass Monthly Pass Annual Pass
1 Zone $1 $1 $17 $170
(Free online) ($7 online) ($160 online)
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