Marico: Strong Pricing Power With Improving Volumes
Marico: Strong Pricing Power With Improving Volumes
Marico: Strong Pricing Power With Improving Volumes
We maintain our positive outlook on Marico (MRCO IN) as it demonstrated strong Rating: Buy
potential for double-digit sales growth in the medium term, fueled by price growth, Target Price: INR 752
focus on direct reach and robust performance in its Foods and Premium Personal Upside: 20%
care segments. Furthermore, there is an upside risk in margin in the long term as CMP: INR 629
new business scales up. We upgrade to Buy from Accumulate with a higher TP of As on 29 October 2024
INR 752 from INR 730 on 50x (unchanged) on as we roll-forward to Dec ’26E P/E.
Key data
Volume improved sequentially, as expected: Q2 net sales increased by 7.6% YoY to INR Bloomberg MRCO IN
26.6bn, meeting expectations, driven by an 8% rise in the domestic business, with volume
Reuters Code MRCO.NS
growth improving to 5% from 4% in Q1. The Parachute segment grew 4% in volume, even
Shares outstanding (mn) 1295
after a minor volume impact from volume reduction in a key price point. Saffola edible oil
Market cap (INR bn/USD mn) 815/9688
saw flat volume growth and a 2% value increase as the pricing cycle turned slightly
Enterprise Value (INR bn/USD mn) 811/9648
favorable after eight quarters. Value-added hair oil (VAHO) dropped 8% YoY due to market
Avg daily volume 3M (INR mn/USD mn) 1916/23
sluggishness and competition, particularly in the lower segment. However, Foods grew 28%
52 week high/low 720/486
Global Markets Research
YoY, supported by mid-teen growth in Saffola oats, achieving a milestone with >INR 10bn in
Free float (%) 41
annual revenue run-rate (ARR). The management anticipates stronger domestic revenue
Note: as on 29 October 2024; Source: Bloomberg
growth in H2, with support from pricing adjustments (including additional 4% price hike in
Parachute and a 15% price hike in edible oils due to higher import duties) and gradual volume
Price chart
gains. The international business delivered 13% growth in constant-currency. MRCO aims
750
to maintain this double-digit growth in the medium term.
700
Project SETU progressing as planned; digital-first portfolio scaling in-line: Project 650
SETU, aimed at expanding direct outlet reach, has now extended to four more states, (INR)
600
bringing its reach to a total of 10 states, with promising initial results. Additionally, the 550
500
new digital-first portfolio has performed ahead of expectations, surpassing ARR of INR
450
5.25bn in Q2. In the domestic market, the combined revenue share of Foods and
400
Premium Personal Care, including Digital-first brands, rose to ~21% in H1, with a target Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 Oct-24
to grow to ~25%+ by FY27.
Source: Bloomberg
Levers in place to drive margin expansion in the long term: EBITDA margin contracted
50bps YoY to 19.6%, in-line with our expectations. For FY25, although the management Shareholding (%)
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
FY24 FY24 FY25 FY25
previously indicated a goal to sustain EBITDA margin at FY24 level, the recent increase
Promoter 59.4 59.4 59.3 59.2
in input costs may affect margin by 40-50bps YoY. Nevertheless, long-term outlook is
% Pledged 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
positive, with anticipated margin expansion driven by improvements in Food
FII 25.7 25.5 24.6 24.9
segments and digital-first brands (as the business continues to scale), favorable
DII 10.0 10.2 11.4 11.3
product mix and focus on premiumization.
Others 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.6
Upgrade to Buy with a higher TP of INR 752: We largely maintain our estimates for
Source: BSE
FY25, FY26 and FY27 and upgrade MRCO to Buy from Accumulate as stock has
corrected by 8% in the past three months. We arrive at a higher TP of INR 752 from INR Price performance (%) 3M 6M 12M
730 on 50x (unchanged) on as we roll-forward to Dec ’26E P/E.
Nifty (1.5) 8.1 28.5
Marico (7.9) 22.0 17.0
NSE Mid-cap (3.6) 10.7 45.3
Key Financials
NSE Small-cap (4.4) 6.9 44.0
YE March FY23 FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Revenue (INR mn) 97,640 96,530 105,638 115,861 128,290
YoY (%) 2.6 (1.1) 9.4 9.7 10.7
EBITDA (INR mn) 18,100 20,260 21,861 24,163 26,883
EBITDA margin (%) 18.5 21.0 20.7 20.9 21.0
Adj PAT (INR mn) 13,020 14,810 15,973 17,782 19,925 Amit Purohit
YoY (%) 6.3 13.7 7.9 11.3 12.1 Building Materials, FMCG, Paints
+91 22 6164 8594
Fully DEPS (INR) 10.1 11.5 12.4 13.8 15.4
[email protected]
RoE (%) 36.4 38.8 38.2 36.1 34.7
Associates
RoCE (%) 44.0 44.8 44.3 42.6 41.5
Rohit Harlikar
P/E (x) 62.3 54.8 50.8 45.6 40.7 Vidhi Puj
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.1 39.5 36.2 32.4 28.8
Note: Pricing as on 29 October 2024; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Marico
Quarterly financials
Y/E March (INR mn) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY (%) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) Q2FY25E Variance (%)
Net sales 26,640 24,760 7.6 26,430 0.8 26,640 (0.0)
Operating expenses 21,420 19,790 8.2 20,170 6.2 21,382 0.2
% of sales 80.4 79.9 76.3 80.3
EBITDA 5,220 4,970 5.0 6,260 (16.6) 5,258 (0.7)
EBITDA margins (%) 19.6 20.1 23.7 19.7
Sales growth aided by
Other income 820 380 115.8 370 121.6 300 173.3
sequential volume uptick in
Interest 110 200 170 170
domestic business and pricing
Depreciation 410 390 410 - 420 (2.4)
cycle turning favorable in
PBT 5,520 4,760 16.0 6,050 (8.8) 4,968 11.1
edible oil
Tax 1,190 1,160 2.6 1,310 (9.2) 1,150 3.5
Effective tax rate (%) 21.6 24.4 21.7 23.1
Minority interest 100 70.0 100.0 80.0
Reported PAT 4,230 3,530 19.8 4,640 (8.8) 3,738 13.2
Adjusted PAT 4,230 3,530 19.8 4,640 (8.8) 3,738 13.2
NPM (%) 15.9 14.3 17.6 14.0
YE March (%) Q2FY25 Q2FY24 YoY bps chg Q1FY25 QoQ bps chg Q2FY25E bps variance
Raw material cost 49.2 49.5 (30) 47.7 146 49.6 (38)
Effective tax rate 21.6 24.4 (281) 21.7 (9) 23.1 (159)
EBITDA margin was in-line Gross margin 50.8 50.5 30 52.3 (146) 50.4 38
with our expectation; margin
EBITDA margin 19.6 20.1 (48) 23.7 (409) 19.7 (14)
outlook is slightly weak due to
rise in input prices NPM 15.9 14.3 162 17.6 (168) 14.0 185
30
24
25
20
(%)
12
15
8
8
10
7
5
5
5
4
4
3
5
2
2
1
1
-
0
(5)
(3)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(10)
(6)
Q2FY25
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
60
50.0
50.5
51.3
51.6
52.3
50.8
47.4
45.0
44.9
44.5
43.7
43.6
42.5
50
40
23.7
23.2
(%)
21.2
20.6
20.1
19.6
19.4
30
18.5
17.9
17.5
17.5
17.3
16.0
20
10
0
Q2FY25
Q2FY22
Q3FY22
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q1FY25
Exhibit 4: Segment-wise performance – Subdued growth in Saffola Edible Oil and VAHO
Q2FY25 value Q2FY25 volume Market share
Category Comments
growth (%) growth (%) (%)
▪ Parachute Rigid registered 4% volume growth and 6% value growth. Decrease in volume in
one of the key price points impacted volume growth by 1%.
Parachute
coconut oil 10 4 54 (volume share) ▪ Volume offtakes grew in high single-digit, resulting in ~120bps gain in market share on MAT
(PCNO) basis.
▪ MRCO implemented another round of price hikes of ~4% at the end of Q2.
▪ Saffola Edible Oils registered flat volume growth, while revenues grew 2% YoY after the
pricing cycle for the brand turned slightly favorable.
▪ The brand implemented a price increase of ~15% for edible oil in response to the sharp hike
in import duties on vegetable oils recently.
Edible oil: 2 Edible oil: flat volume ▪ Foods ARR crossed INR 10bn.
Saffola
Foods: 28 growth Oats: 41 (value share)
▪ Saffola Oats delivered mid-teen growth, while newer franchises also fared healthily.
▪ Saffola Masala Millets was launched in Q2.
▪ True Elements and the plant-based nutrition portfolio of Plix maintained accelerated growth
momentum.
▪ Value-added hair oils declined 8% in value terms amid persistent sluggishness and
competitive headwinds in the bottom of the pyramid segment.
▪ The franchise gained ~110bps in value market share in Q2, as mid and premium segments of
Value added hair the franchise fared better.
(8) NA 28 (value share)
oils (VAHO)
▪ The growth trajectory of the franchise has bottomed out and MRCO expects gradually
improving trends ahead on the back of visible ATL investments and brand activations leading
into the festive season.
▪ The Digital-first brands crossed INR 5.25bn in ARR in Q2.
Post wash Leave-on Serums – ▪ Beardo continued to scale ahead of expectations and is on course to deliver double-digit
Premium 48% (volume share) EBITDA margin this year.
NA NA
personal care hair gels/waxes/creams 52% ▪ Beardo continued to scale well and is on course to deliver double-digit EBITDA margin this
(volume share) year.
▪ Just Herbs and personal care portfolio of Plix continued to gain traction.
Exhibit 5: International business – Strong performance in MENA and South Africa regions
Q2FY25 constant-
Geography currency (CC) Comments
growth (%)
▪ The business stayed resilient amidst challenges in the operating environment, which progressively subsided in the latter half of
Bangladesh 8 Q2.
South East Asia 7 ▪ Growth led by recovery in home and personal care (HPC) demand in Vietnam.
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 43 ▪ Strong momentum in the MENA region was led by robust growth in Egypt and the Gulf region.
South Africa 20 ▪ Strong growth in South Africa with both the Hair Care and Health Care franchises faring well.
65
60
55
50 51x
(x)
45
45x
40
35 39x
30
25
20
Oct-23
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-24
Feb-20
Jun-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Feb-23
Jun-23
Feb-24
Jun-24
(INR)
Revenue 104,889 115,433 127,859 105,638 115,861 128,290 0.7 0.4 0.3
EBITDA 21,944 24,182 26,825 21,861 24,163 26,883 (0.4) (0.1) 0.2
EBITDA margin (%) 20.9 20.9 21.0 20.7 20.9 21.0 (23) (9) (3)
PAT 16,038 17,797 19,880 15,973 17,782 19,925 (0.4) (0.1) 0.2
EPS (INR) 12.4 13.8 15.4 12.4 13.8 15.4 (0.4) (0.1) 0.2
Coverage History
780
680 AC 28
29
25
580
24
27
21 26
19 22 23
480
20
7 9 10 17 18
380 5 15
8
3 4 6 16
11 12 14
13
280 2
1
180
Aug-22
Aug-16
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Not Covered Covered
The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information,
there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional
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Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute “forward-looking statements.” These “forward-looking statements” are not guarantees of future performance and are based
on numerous current assumptions that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual future performance could differ materially from these “forward-looking statements” and financial
information.
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