MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 84

PROBABILITY THEORY

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with prediction or uncertainty. It was
developed from the theory of games of chance and gambling. It plays a very important role in
astronomy, physics, chemistry, engineering, economics, business, social science, psychology and
research.

Experimental probability
Probabilities can be estimated from experiments. An experiment is a situation involving chance or
probability that leads to results called outcomes. An outcome is the result of a single trial of an
experiment while an event is one or more possible outcomes of a random experiment.
Examples of outcomes and events
(a) One toss of a coin results in the outcomes head or tail {H, T}. One event of this experiment
is obtaining a head.
(b) One throw of an ordinary die results in the outcomes {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. An example of an
event of this experiment is obtaining a number greater than 4.
(c) Two tosses of a coin result in the outcomes {HH, HT, TH, TT}. An example of an event of
this experiment obtaining two heads.
(d) A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. The possible outcomes are
landing on yellow, blue, green or red. One event of this experiment is landing on blue.
Events are denoted by Capital letters. Using example (b) we can let A be an event “obtaining
a number greater than 4”, then A= (5, 6).
Experimental probability is therefore an estimate of the probability of an event. It is called
experimental because you perform activities or experiments to find the number of times a certain
event actually happened after repeating the experiment a certain number of times.
number of times a certain event happens
Experimental probability 
total number of trials

Suppose you have a bag filled with marbles of different colors. You pull out 12 marbles without
replacing them, and 5 of those marbles are red. What is the experimental probability of getting
another red marble the next time you pull a marble from the bag?
number of red marbles pulled from bag 5
P(red)  
total number of marbles pulled from bag 12
The probability of the next marble being red is 5 .
12

Probability Defined
Every random event has a different number of possible outcomes. The probability of an event is a
value that describes the chance or likelihood that the event will happen or the chance or likelihood
that the event will end with a particular outcome.
We use the notation P(A) to denote the probability that event “A” will happen.
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 85

Certain, Impossible and Uncertain Events

The probability of an event that is certain to happen is 100% or 1, while the probability of an event
that is impossible is simply 0% or 0. Any other event that has some possibility of happening will
therefore have a probability that lies somewhere between 0 and 1 (or between 0% and 100%).
In other words, the probability of any event can be expressed as a fraction lying between 0
and 1.
Since an uncertain event has a probability that lies between 0 and 1, the higher the chance of the
outcome, the closer the probability of that outcome will lie to 1.
0 100%
%
0 1

Impossible event Event that might happen

Certain event
For example, suppose a dice is rolled; the outcomes are (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
 P(dice will land on a number from 1 to 6) = certain or “1” or 100%
 P(dice will land on 10) = impossible or “0” or 0%
 P(dice will land on an even number) = 3 = 50%
6
 P(dice will land on 2) = 1
6
1
0% 6 50% 100%

0 1

P(10) P(2) P(even) P (1 to 6)

Different Ways of Describing the Probability of an Event

Hopefully you have seen from the section that there are three main ways in which we can choose to
describe the probability of an event:
1. As a fraction − i.e. a value that lies between 0 and 1.
2. As a decimal − i.e. the result of computing the fraction;
3. As a percentage – i.e a value that lies between 0% and 100%

1
For Example: The probability of a fair coin landing on heads is: P(heads) =
2
We could also choose to write this as: P(heads) = 0.5 or P(heads) = 50%
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 86

Terminologies used in probability theory

Sample Space (S)

This is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. It is some times termed as the possibility
space. Each possible outcome is called a sample point.
 For example, if an unbiased coin is tossed then the two possible outcomes are 'head' and
'tail'. The set of all possible outcomes is therefore {H, T}. This is called the sample space
of the experiment
 The sample space of flipping two coins -{ HH, HT, TH, TT }.
 The following table illustrates a sample space for the sum obtained when rolling two dice.
1 (1, 1) (1,2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
Number 3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
on First 4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
die 5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
1 2 3 4 5 6
Number on second die

Table of sums
First Second Die
Die 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The sample space S has 36 sample points, each of which is equally likely to occur. The values in the
columns represent the sums on the two dice.
If the sample space has a countable number of sample points then we denote the number of points
in S by n(S). The probability of an event A which is a subset of S denoted P (A) is defined as
n( A)
P( A) 
n( S )

Intersection of events
Given A and B are two events in a sample space S, the intersection of A and B, denoted A  B is the
event containing all sample points that are both in A and B. Sometimes we use A and B for
intersection.
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 87

Union of events
The union of events A and B, denoted A  B is the event containing all sample points in either A or
B or both. Sometimes we use A or B for union.
Compliment of events
If A is an event of a sample space S, the compliment of A denoted A or Ac is the event containing
all sample points that are not in A. Sometimes we use not A for compliment.
Mutually exclusive events (Disjoint Events)
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if their intersection is empty having no sample
points in common (i.e. A  B =  ). In this case P ( A  B ) =0
Independence of Events
Two events are independent if one event does not affect the probability of the other event. Thus
Events are independent when the outcome of one event has no effect on the outcome of a second
event. For example throwing a die and flipping a coin are independent events.
For two independent events A and B, P ( A  B ) = P (A) ×P (B).
Example 1
The numbers 1 to 20 are each written on a card. The 20 cards are mixed together. One card
is chosen at random from the pack. Find the probability that the number on the card is:
(a). Even
(b). A factor of 24
(c). Prime
Solution
We will use „P(x)‟ to mean „the probability of x‟. Let S be the sample space such that S = {1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8… 20}

number of even numbers 10 1

(a). P(even) =  
total number of numbers in the pack 20 2

number of factors of 24
(b). P( a factor of 24 ) =
total number of numbers in the pack
The factors of 24 are: F24  1, 2,3, 4,6,8,12, 24 ( F24 )  8
8 2
Therefore P( a factor of 24) = 
20 5
(c). Prime numbers in the pack = {2,3,5,7,11,13,17,19}

number of prime numbers in the pack 8 2

P(Pr ime)   
total number of numbers in the pack 20 5
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 88

Example 2
One letter is selected at random from the word “SUBSIDIARYMATHEMATICS”. Find the
probability of selecting
a) an A
b) an E
Solution
The word “SUBSIDIARYMATHEMATICS” has a sample space of 21 letters
number of A 's 3 1
a) P(selecting A)=  
total number letters 21 7

number of E 's 1
b) P(selecting E) = 
total number letters 21
Example 3
The two sides of a coin are known as „head‟ and „tail‟. Two coins are tossed at the same time.
Illustrate the possible outcomes on a sample space diagram and find the probability of
obtaining
(a). Two heads
(b). A head and a tail.
Solution
The sample space S for the outcomes when the two coins are tossed is as shown.
Second coin

H HH TH
T HT TT

H T
Fist coin
S= {HH, TH, HT, TT}  (S) = 4
(a). Let A be the event „ two heads are obtained‟
A= {HH} →  (A) =1
n( A) 1 1
Therefore P(A) =  . The probability that two heads are obtained is
n( S ) 4 4

(b). Let E be the event „ a head and a tail is obtained‟

E = {HT, TH} →  (E) = 2
n( E ) 2 1
Therefore P(E) =  
n( S ) 4 2
Example 4
A black die and a white die are thrown at the same time. Display all the possible outcomes.
Find the probability of obtaining:
(a). A total of 5,
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 89

(b). A total of 11,

(c). A „two‟ on the black die and a „six‟ on the white die.
Solution

1 (1, 1) (1,2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

Number on Black die

2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
1 2 3 4 5 6
Number on white die

There are 36 possible outcomes, shown above hence n(S ) =36

(a). Let A be an event „ obtaining a total of 5 on the two dice‟

A = {(1,4), (4,1), (2,3), (3,2)}  n( A) =4

n( A) 4 1
P(A) =  
n( S ) 36 9

(b). Let B be an event „ obtaining a total of 11 on the two dice

B = {(6,5), (5,6)}  n( B) =2
n( B ) 2 1
P(B) =  
n( S ) 36 18

(c). Let C be an event „ obtaining a „a two‟ on the black die and a „six‟ on the white die‟
C={(2,6)}  n(C ) = 1
n(C ) 1
P (C) = 
n( S ) 36
Example 5
A fair coin is tossed and a fair die is rolled. Find the probability of obtaining a „head‟ and a
„six‟.
Solution
When a coin is tossed once, the sample space is: S = {H, T} where H denotes a „head‟ and T
a „tail‟. So P(H) = P(T) = ½.
1
Similarly the sample space when a die is tossed once is: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} So P(six) 
6
1 1 1
The two events are independent. Therefore, P (head and six) =  
2 6 12
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 90

Exercise

1. An ordinary die is thrown. Find the probability that the number obtained
(a) is s multiple of 3, (b) is less than 7, (c) is a factor of 6
2. A bag contains 6 red balls and 4 green balls
(a) Find the probability of selecting at random
(i) a red ball (ii) a green ball
(b) One red ball is removed from the bag. Find the new probability of selecting at random:
(i) a red ball (ii) a green ball
3. From a set of cards numbered 1 to 20 a card is drawn at random. Find the probability that
the number (a) is divisible by 4, (b) is greater than 15 ,(c) is divisible by 4 and greater than 15
4. One letter is selected at random from the word „UNNECESSARY‟. Find the probability of
selecting:
(a) an R (b) an E (c) an O
5. Two ordinary dice are thrown. Find the probability that (a) the sum on the two dice is 3, (b)
the sum on the two dice exceeds 9, (c) the two dice show the number.
6. An ordinary die and a fair coin are thrown together. Show the possible outcomes on a sample
space diagram and find the probability that (a) a head and a 2 are obtained, (b) a tail and a 7
are obtained, (c) a head and an even number are obtained.
7. The letters of the word „INDEPENDENCE‟ are written on individual cards and the cards
are put into a box. A card is selected at random from the box. Find the probability of
obtaining : (a) a card with letter E (b) a card with letter N
8. Two tetrahedral dice (4 sided), each with faces labeled 1, 2, 3 and 4 are thrown. The score is
the sum of the two numbers on which the dice land. Find the possibility space and the
probability of each element of the space.
9. One ball is selected at random from a bag containing 12 balls of which x are white.

(a) What is the probability of selecting a white ball? (b) When a further 6 white balls are added
the probability of selecting a white ball is doubled. Find x.
10. A bead is drawn from a container containing 10 red, 15 black, 5 green and 10 yellow beads.
Find the probability that the bead is
(a) black, (b) not green, (c) red or black, (d) not blue.
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 91

Venn diagrams
Probabilities can be illustrated on a Venn diagram. The rectangle represents the entire sample space,
and the circle represents the event A, as shown below.
S
A

Combinations of probabilities can be shown on a Venn diagram, as follows;

(i) A and B, A  B . This is the overlap of the regions corresponding to A and B as shown
by the shaded region in the figure below.

(ii) A  B is the region of points in either the A region or the B region (or both). Note that
the word or is inclusive. „A or B‟ means „A or B or both‟, as shown by the shaded region
below.

(iii) A is the region of points that are not in A, as shown by the shaded region below.

A
A

Probability Laws and Notations in relation to set theory

Let a random experiment have sample space S. Any assignment of probabilities to events must
satisfy the following basic laws of probability.
 Probabilities are real numbers on the interval from 0 to 1 i.e 0≤ P(A)≤1 for any event A and
P(S)= 1
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 92

 Complementary law:
P(A) + P( A ) =1  P( A ) = 1 – P(A)

 Additive law:
For any two events A and B, P( A B ) = P(A) + P(B) – P( A  B )
If A and B are mutually exclusive P ( A  B ) =0 and thus P ( A B ) = P(A) + P(B)

 Law of total probability:


For two events A and B where A, A and B, B are complementary then

(i) P(B) = P( A  B ) +P( A B )

A B
AB
A B

(ii) P(A) = P( A  B ) + P( A  B )

A B
A B
A B

_ _ _ _
(iii) P( A)  P( A B)  P( A B)

A
B
AB

AB

_ _ _ _
(iv) P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A B)

A B
_
A B
_ _
A B
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 93

 De - Morgan’s laws
For any two events A and B
_ _
(i) P( A B)  P( A  B)
_ _
(ii) P( A B)  P( A  B)

 Multiplicative law for independent events – the and rule.

If events A and B are independent, P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)

Contingency table
A contingency table provides a way of portraying data that can facilitate calculating probabilities. We
use a contingency table to represent the probabilities of two events, A and B, which may or may not
be independent. The contingency table might look like this:
Event A A
B A  B A  B P( B)
B A B AB P( B )
P( A) P ( A) 1

Some important relationships are visible in the contingency table. In particular:

1. P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A  B ) .
2. P( B)  P( A  B )  P ( A  B ) .
3. P( A)  P( A  B)  P( A  B ) .
4. P( B )  P ( A  B )  P ( A  B ) .
5. P( A)  P( A)  1
6. P( B)  P( B )  1

These relationships can easily be obtained by constructing a contingency table.

Example 1
19 2 4
Events A and B are such that P(A) = , P(B) = and P( A  B) = . Find P( A  B) .
30 5 5
Solution
From P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
4 19 2
   P( A  B)
5 30 5
 19 2 24 7
P( A  B)    
30 5 30 30
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 94

Example 2
Events A and B are such that P (A) = 0.5, P (B) =0.7 and P ( A  B) = 0.3. Find
_
(i) P( A  B ) (ii) P( A  B)
Solution
(i) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
P( A  B ) = 0.5 + 0.7 – 0.3 = 0.9

(ii) From P(A) = P( A  B ) + P( A  B )
_
 P( A  B)  P( A)  P( A  B)

= 0.5 – 0.3 = 0.2

Example 3
1 1
Events A and B are such that P(A) = and P( A  B ) = . If A and B are independent
3 12
events, find (a) P(B), (b) P( A  B)
Solution
(a) Since A and B are independent events P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
1 1
 P( B)
12 3
1
P( B) 
4
(b) From P( A  B)  P( A)  P(B)  P( A  B)
1 1 1 1
 P( A  B ) =   
3 4 12 2
Example 4
Given that A and B are mutually exclusive events such that P(A) = 0.5, P( A  B) = 0.9, find
_ _ _
(i) P( A B) (ii) P( A B)
Solution
_ _
(i) P( A B)  P( A  B) But P( A  B) = 1 - P( A  B)
= 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
_ _ _ _
(ii) P( A B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A B) But P( A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5
Since A and B are mutually exclusive P( A  B) = P (A) + P (B) and P( A  B) =0
P (B) = 0.9 – 0.5 = 0.4
Also P( A  B)  P( B)  P( A  B) = 0.4 – 0 = 0.4
_
 P( A B) = 0.5 + 0.4 – 0.4 = 0.5
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 95

Exercise
2 3 5
1. For events A and B it is known that P(A) = , P( A  B)  and P( A  B)  . Find P(B)
3 4 12
2. In a group of 30 students all study at least one of the subjects physics and biology. 20 attend
the physics class and 21 attend the biology class. Find the probability that a student chosen at
random studies both physics and biology.
3. For events A and B it is known that P(A) = P(B) and P( A  B) = 0.1 and P( A  B) =0.7. Find
P(A).
4. The probability that a boy in S.5 class is in the football team is 0.4 and the probability that he
is in the volleyball team is 0.5. If the probability that a boy in the class is in both teams is 0.2,
find the probability that a boy chosen at random is in the football or volleyball team.
_ 1 1
2
5. Given that P( A)  , P( B)  and P( A  B)  , find P( A  B) .
3 2 12
6. If events A and B are such that they are independent and P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5, find
(a) P( A  B) , (b) P( A  B) . Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
7. Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.25. If A and B are independent
_ _ _
events, find (a) P( A  B) , (b) P( A  B) , (c) P( A B)
1
8. The probability of two independent events A and B occurring together is . The probability
8
5
that either or both events occur is . Find the
8
(i) P (A)
(ii) P (B)

9. If two events A and B are independent and 3 P( A  B) = 5P(B) = 4P(A).Find

(i) P(A)
(ii) P( A  B )
10. The events A, B and C are mutually exclusive such that P(A)= 0.3, P(B) =0.2 and P(C)= 0.3.
Find (i) P( A  C ) (ii) P( A  B)C
2
11. The probability that a student X can solve a certain problem is and that student Y can
5
1
solve it is . Find the probability that the problem will be solved if both X and Y try to solve
2
it independently
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 96

Probability Situations
The OR situation
This deals with the probability of either one or the other or even both events occurring. If A and B
are two events, the probability that either A or B or even both occur is denoted by P( A  B) where
P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) . If the two events are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B
will occur equals the sum of their probabilities. i.e. P (A or B) = P( A  B) =P(A) + P(B). Thus ‘Or
Law‟ in probability means that the probabilities are added. We must take care to use it only when
the two events cannot occur at the same time.

The AND situation

This deals with the probability of two events A and B occurring together. „And Law’ in probability
means that the probabilities are multiplied. P (A and B) = P( A  B) . For independent events, P (A
and B) = P (A) × P (B)
Example 5
One ball is selected at random from a bag containing 5 red balls, 2 yellow balls and 4 white
balls. Find the probability of selecting a red ball or white ball.
Solution
The two events are exclusive.
P (red ball or white ball) = P (red) + P (white)
5 4 9
=   .
11 11 11

Example 6
John, Paul and mark compete in a 100m race. The probability that John wins is 0.3, the
probability that Paul wins is 0.2 and the probability that Mark wins is 0.4. Find the probability
that
(a) John or Mark wins
(b) Neither John nor Paul wins.
Solution
Since only one person can win, the events are mutually exclusive.
(a) P(John or Mark wins) = P(John wins) + P(Mark Wins)
= 0.3+ 0.4
= 0.7
(b) P( neither John nor Paul wins) = P( John or Paul wins)C
= 1- P(John or Paul wins)
= 1- (0.3+0.2)
= 0.5
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 97

Example 7
A coin and a die are thrown together. Find the probability of obtaining
(a) a head
(b) a number greater than 4
(c) a head and a number greater than 4
(d) a head or a number greater than 4
Solution
The sample space S when a coin is thrown is S= {H,T}
Let A be the event „ a head is obtained‟, so n(A)=1 and n(S) =2
1
(a) P(A) = .
2
The sample space when a die is thrown is S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let B be the event „a number greater than 4 is obtained‟, so B={5, 6} n(B) = 2 and n(S) = 6
2 1
(b) P(B) =  .
6 3
(c) P( head and a number greater 4) = P( A and B)
Since A and B are independent = P(A) × P(B)
1 1 1
=   .
2 3 6
(d) P(a head or a number greater than 4) = P(A or B) = P( A  B) .
Since A and B are not mutually exclusive P( A  B)  P( A)  P(B)  P( A  B) .
1 1 1 8 2
=    
2 13 6 12 3

Example 8
In a group of 40 students, 14 are girls. Of the girls 8 wear sweaters and 4 out of the 26 boys
wear sweaters. What is the probability that a student chosen at random from the group is a
girl or someone who wears a sweater?
Solution
Let G be the event „the person chosen is a girl‟ and S be the event „the person chosen wears a
sweater‟.
14 7 12 6 8 4
P(G )   , P( S )   , P(G and S )  P(G  S )  
40 20 40 20 40 20
P(G or S )  P(G  S )  P(G)  P( S )  P(G  S )

7 6 4 9
   
20 20 20 20
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 98

Exercise

1. An ordinary die is thrown. Find the probability that the number obtained is
(a) even, (b) prime, (c) even and prime) (d) even or prime
2. A and B are independent events and P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.75. Find the probability that
(a) Both A and B occur
(b) A or B occurs
1
3. The probability that a student in a S.5 class is left – handed is. . From the class of 15 girls
6
and 5 boys a student is chosen at random. Assuming that „left – handedness‟ is independent
of the sex of a student, find the probability that a student chosen is a boy or is left – handed.
4. The probability of a student in S.5 getting an A in Subsidiary mathematics is 0.24 and that of
getting a B in Economics is 0.28. What is the probability that a randomly selected student
from this class will get an A or a B?
5. A fair die is thrown twice. Find the probability of obtaining a 4 on the first throw and an odd
number on the second throw.
6. A bag contains 10 red balls, 5 blue balls and 7 green balls. Find the probability of selecting at
random
(a) a red ball, (b) a green ball, (c) a blue or a red ball, (d) a red or a green ball.
7. A box contains red, green, blue and yellow counters. The table shows the probability of
getting each colour.
Colour Red Green Blue Yellow
Probability 0.4 0.25 0.25 0.1

A counter is taken from the box at random. What is the probability of getting a red or blue
counter?
8. Aggie and Rose both try to score a goal in netball. The probability that Aggie will score a goal
on the first try is 0.65. The probability that Rose will score a goal on the first try is 0.8.
(a) Work out the probability that Aggie and Rose will both score a goal on their first tries.
(b) Work out the probability that neither Aggie nor Rose will score a goal on their first tries.
9. Samantha takes examinations in maths and English. The probability that she passes maths is
0.7. The probability that she passes English is 0.8. The results in each subject are independent
of each other. Calculate the probability that
(i) Samantha passes both subjects;
(ii) Samantha passes maths and fails English.
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 99

The conditional Probability

This is the probability that an event will occur given that another event has already occurred.
For example: A certain school has male and female teachers who teach Arts and Science subjects.
Suppose that one teacher is selected at random and it is known that the teacher is a female, what is
the probability that the teacher teaches a science subject? So this is the probability of selecting a
teacher who teaches a science subject given that the teacher is a female.
If A and B are two events, where P (A)  0 and P(B)  0, then the probability of A, given that B has
occurred is denoted P(A/B). This is read this as „the probability of A, given B‟
P( A  B)
P (A/B) =
P( B)
It follows that the probability of B, given A has occurred is denoted P (B/A) and is given by;
P( A  B)
P( B / A)  Since P( B  A) = P( A  B)
P( A)
These results can be written as P( A  B) = P (A/B) × P (B) = P (B/A) × P (A)
Note:
(i) If A and B are mutually exclusive events then, since P( A  B) =0 and P (A)  0 and P(B)
 0, it follows that P(A/B)= 0 and P(B/A)=0.
(ii) If events A and B are independent, P( A  B) = P (A) ×P (B). Thus P(A/B) = P(A) and
P(B/A) = P(B)
Example 9
13 3
Given that P (H) = and P( H  G)  . Find P (G/H).
52 52
Solution
P( H  G )
P(G / H ) 
P( H )
3
3
= 52 
13 13
52
Example 10
The probability of selecting a student in a certain high school who does Geography is 0.2.
The probability selecting a student who does Subsidiary mathematics and Geography is 0.03.
Find the probability of selecting a student who does subsidiary mathematics given that
he/she does Geography.
Solution
Let G be the event „a student selected does Geography‟
Let S be the event „a student selected does Subsidiary mathematics‟
 P(G)  0.2, P(S and G) = P(S  G)=0.03
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 100

P( S  G )
P( S / G ) 
P( S )
Thus
0.03
=  0.15
0.2
Example 11
1 1 1
`If A and B are events such that P( B)  , P( A  B)  and P(B/A)= . Calculate
6 12 3
_
(i) P(A), (ii) P(A/B) , (iii) P(A/ B ).
Solution
P( A  B) P( A  B)
(i) Using P( B / A)   P(A) =
P( A) P( B / A)
1
1
= 12
1

4
3
1
P( A  B) 1
(ii) P( A / B)   12
1

P( B) 2
6
_
_
P( A  B) _
P( A / B)  _
But P(A  B)  P( A)  P ( A  B )
P( B)
1 1 1
=  
4 12 6
_
(iii) Also P( B)  1  P( B)
1 5
= 1 
6 6
1
_
1
 P(A/ B)  6 
5 5
6

Example 12
A card is picked at random from a pack of 20 cards numbered 1, 2, 3, …, 20. Given that the
card shows an even number, find the probability that it is a multiple of 4.
Solution
The sample space, S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20}  n(S)
= 20
Let E be the event „the card picked shows an even number‟
Let M be the event „the card picked shows a multiple of 4‟

n( E ) 10 1
E= {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20} n(E) = 10  P( E )  = =
n( S ) 20 2
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 101

n( M ) 5 1
M = {4, 8, 12, 16, 20} n(M) =5  P( M )  = =
n( S ) 20 4
n( E  M ) 5 1
M  E) = {4, 8, 12, 16, 20} n (M  E) = 5  P( M  E )  = =
n( S ) 20 4
1
P( M  E ) 1
Hence P(M/E) =  4
1

P( E ) 2
2

Exercise
2 1 1
1. If P(A/B) = , P(B) = , P(A)= , find
5 4 3
(a) P(B/A), (b) P( A  B)
2. A number is picked at random from the digits 1, 2, …, 9. Given that the number is a multiple
of 3, find the probability that the number is
(a) even (b) a multiple of 4
2 1 2
3. X and Y are two events such that P(X) = , P(X/Y) = and P(Y/X) =. Find
5 2 3
(a) P(X  Y), (b) P(Y), (c) P(X  Y).
4. The two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) =0.2, P(A/B) = 0.1. Calculate the
probabilities that
(i) both of the events occur (ii) B occurs, given that A has occurred.
3 1 1
5. Given P(A) = , P(B) = and P( A  B ) =
5 2 3
Find:
_
(i) P( A  B )
_
(ii) P( A / B )
_
(iii) P( A B )
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 102

Probability tree diagrams

A tree diagram is a diagram that is shaped like a tree, with the branches of the diagram representing
all of the different possible outcomes for the event taking place. It may be drawn to represent
probabilities when only two possible have to be considered. For example tossing a coin where the
outcome at each toss can only be one of the two possibilities; Heads or Tails.
Tree diagrams are especially useful when working with two or more events that are happening at the
same time and when the number of possible outcomes of an event is not immediately obvious. They
are used to:
(i) provide us with a way to visually represent all of the possible outcomes of an event so as
to generate a sample space
(ii) Calculating probabilities when two events are combined.
Example 13
A husband and wife are considering having three children.
(a) Draw a tree diagram to show all of the possible combinations of boys and girls that can
exist with three children and write down the sample space. ( Possible outcomes)
(b) What is the probability that all the three of the children will be girls?
(c) What is the probability that 2 of the children will be boys 1 will be a girl? (in any order)
Solution
At each birth, there are two possible outcomes – Girl (G) or Boy (B). Each of these
1
outcomes has chance of happening. This event can be represented on a tree diagram as:
2
Possible Probabilities
outcomes
1 1 1 1 1
G G GGG   = *
2 2 2 2 8
1
2 G G 1 1 1 1
  =
1 B BGGB 2 2 2 8
12 1 1 1 1
1 G G 2 G GGBG   =
2 2 2 8
2
1
2
B B 1 1 1 1
  = #
1 B BGBB 2 2 2 8
1 2
1 #
1
B B 2
2 G GBGG 1 1 1 1
  =
2 G G 1
2 2 2 8

2 1 1 1 1
B B BGB   = #
1 1 2 2 2 8
2 B B 2 1 1 1 1
  =
#
G G BBG 2 2 2 8 #
1
#
1 1 1 1
2 B B BBB   =
2 2 2 8
1ST BORN 2ND BORN 3RD
BORN

(a) The sample space, S = {BBB, GGB, GBG, GBB, BGG, BGB, BBG, BBB}
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 103

NOTE:
(i) We fill the possible outcome for each event at the end of every branch.
(ii) We include a branch for every possible outcome of an event.
(iii) We write the probability of each possible outcome on the branches of the “tree”.
RULES OF OBTAINING PROBABILITIES:
(i) When the required outcome is given by a path along the branches of a probability tree,
multiply the probabilities along that path.
(ii) When the required outcome is given by more than one path in a probability tree, add the
probabilities resulting from each path. This is possible when we are calculating the
combination of different ways in which the two events can occur according to a set of
conditions.
(b) The first path marked * involves having all the three children as girls. The probability of this
event is obtained by simply multiplying the fractions on the three branches along the path.
1
Therefore, P (all the three children are girls) = P (GGG) = .
8
(c) The paths marked # involve having 2 of the children as boys and 1 as a girl. To find the
probability that 2 of the children will be boys and one will be a girl, we add the probabilities
resulting from each path.
Therefore, P (two boys and one girl) = P (GBB) + P (BGB) + P (BBG)
1 1 1 3
=   =
8 8 8 8
Example 14
A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 green balls. A ball is drawn at random and then replaced.
Another ball is drawn. What is the probability that both balls are green?
Solution
Let R1 be the event „a red ball is drawn first‟
R2 be the event „a red ball is drawn second‟
G1 be the event „a green ball is drawn first‟
G2 be the event „a green ball is drawn second‟
The tree diagram is as shown below. Since the ball is replaced after the first draw the total
number of balls does not change.
5 5 5 25
8
R2 P( R1  R2 )   
8 8 64
5
8 R1
5R 5 3 15
3 G2 P( R1  G2 )   
8 5 8 8 64
3G R2 3 5 15
8
P(G1  R2 )   
3
G1 8 8 64
8

3
3 3 9
8 G2 P(G1  G2 )   
8 8 64
1st draw 2nd draw
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 104

3 3 9
P (both balls are green) = P(G1  G2 )   
8 8 64
Example 15
A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 green balls. A ball is selected at random and not replaced. A
second ball is then selected. Find the probability of selecting;
(a) two green balls
(b) one red ball and one green ball.
Solution
4 5 4 10
7
R2 P( R1  R2 )   
8 7 28
5 R1
8
5R 5 3 15
3 G2 P( R1  G2 )   
7 8 7 56
3G R2 3 5 15
3 5 P(G1  R2 )   
G1 8 7 56
8 7

3 2 3
2 G2 P(G1  G2 )   
7 8 7 28
1st draw 2nd draw

3 2 3
(a) P (two green balls) = P(G1  G2 )   
8 7 28
(b) P (one red, one green ball) = P( R1  G2 ) + P(G1  R2 )
15 15 15
 + =
56 56 28
Example 16
A school canteen sells Chapatti and Cakes, and Fanta, Sprite and Coke cool drinks.
(a) If a student wants to buy something to eat and drink from the canteen, write down all of
the possible combinations that the student could choose.
(b) The tree diagram below shows all of the possible combinations of food and drink at this
canteen.
1 Drink
Food 3 Fanta
1
3
Chapatti Sprite
1
2
1
3 Coke
1 Fanta
1 3
2
1
3
Cake Sprite
1
1
3
3 Coke
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 105

(i) What is the probability that a student will choose a Chapatti and a Fanta?
(ii) What is the probability that the student will end up with some sort of food and a Coke?
Solution
(a) The possible combinations that a student can choose include;
{(Chapatti and Fanta), (Chapatti and Sprite), (Chapatti and Coke), (Cake and Fanta),
(Cake and Sprite), (Cake and Coke)}
1 1 1
(b) (i) P (Chapatti and a Fanta) =  
2 3 6
(ii ) P (Some sort of food and a Coke) = P (Chapatti and Coke) + P (Cake and Coke)
=       
1 1 1 1
 2 3  2 3
1 1 1
=  
6 6 3
Example 17
In a class of 24 girls, 7 have black hair. If 2 girls are chosen at random from the class, find
the probability that (a) they both have black hair, (b) neither has black hair.
Solution
_
7 17
Let B be the event „the girl chosen has black hair‟, then P (B) = and P( B)  . In this
24 24
_
case B means that „the girl chosen is not having black hair‟

6 7 6 7
23
B2 P( B1  B2 )   
24 23 92
7 B1 17
7B 24 _
7 17 119
23 _ P( B1  B 2 )   
_
B2 24 23 552
7
_
17 B 23 B2 17 7 119
P( B1  B2 )   
_
17 24 23 552
B1
24

16 _ _ _
17 16 34
23 B2 P( B1  B 2 )   
24 23 69
1st Choice 2nd
Choice

7 6 7
(a) P (both have black hair) = P( B1  B2 )   
24 23 92
_ _
17 16 34
(b) P (neither has black hair) = P( B1  B 2 )   
24 23 69
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 106

Exercise
1. By drawing a tree diagram, find the possible outcomes when a coin is tossed three times.
2. The probability that a biased die falls showing a 6 is 0.2. This biased die is thrown twice.
(a) Draw a tree diagram showing the possible outcomes and the corresponding probabilities,
considering the event „a six is thrown‟.
(b) Find the probability that exactly one six will be obtained.
3. A box contains ten green and six white marbles. A marble is chosen at random, its colour
noted and it is not replaced. This is repeated once more. What is the probability that the
marble chosen are of the same colour? Ans. 1 
2
4. A bag contains 8 white counters and 3 black counters. Two counters are drawn, one after the
other. Find the probability of drawing one white and one black counter;
(a) If the first counter is replaced. Ans.  48 
 121 
(b) If the first counter is not replaced.  24 
Ans.  
 55 
5. A bag contains 3 black and 5 white balls. 2 balls are drawn at random one at a time without
replacement. Find
(i) The probability that the second ball is white. Ans.  5 
8

(ii) The probability that the first ball is white given that the second is white. 4
Ans.  
7
6. A box contains 3 red, 2 green and 5 blue crayons. Two crayons are randomly selected from
the box with out replacement. Find the probability that:
(i) The crayons are of the same colour. Ans. 14 
 25 
(ii) At least one red crayon is selected. 8
Ans.  
 15 

7. (a) A bag X contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls and bag Y contains 2 white balls and 3
black balls. A ball is drawn at random from each bag. Find the probability that
(i) Both balls are white
(ii) One ball is white and another black.
(b) A ball is drawn at random from bag X and then put into bag Y. Then a ball is drawn at
random from bag Y. Find the probability that the balls drawn from bags X and Y are of
different colours.
8. A box contains 3 blue marbles and some green marbles all of identical size. Two marbles are
3
drawn at random without replacement. If the probability of drawing two blue marbles is ,
28
how many green marbles are in the box?
9. A box A contains 3 red balls and 4 black balls. A box B contains 3 red balls and 2 black balls.
One box is selected at random and then from that box, one ball is selected at random. Find:
(i) the probability that the ball is red
(ii) the probability that the ball came from A, given that it is red.
MECHANICS, PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS APPLICATIONS AND CONNECTIONS 107

10. A machine makes two parts which fit together to make a tool. The probability that the first
part will be made correctly is 0.9. The probability that the second part will be made correctly
is 0.95.
(a) Complete the tree diagram below giving the missing probabilities.
1st Part 2nd Part
0.95 Correct
Correct
0.9 Incorrect
Correct
Incorrect
Incorrect

(b) Use the tree diagram to work out the probability that both parts will be made correctly.