2007 8 3-5

http://www.tianya.cn/publicforum/content/develop/1/126597.shtml 2010 3
600 2008 11 2010
2 2 14
60 29

320 29 3 20

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:12:30

→ → → → → →

—— / 10

1
 / 14
/ 16
/ 21

29

“ ” / 30
/ 34
/ 39
/ 43

51

/ 53
/ 58
/ 63

“ ” 73

—— / 74
/ 82
/ 94
/ 92
/ 97

30 105

“ ” 80

“ ” “ ”

“ ” / 106

2
 “ ” / 114

119

“ ”
“ ” “ ”

“ ” / 120
“ ” / 123
/ 128
/ 134
“ ” / 138
/ 143
/ 148

151

/ 152
/ 156
/ 162
/ 164
“ ” / 169
“ ” / 178
“ ” / 180

185

/ 187
M / 190
/ 197
/ 210
/ 218
/ 224

235

3
 “ ”

“ ”

/ 236
/ 241
/ 244
/ 249
/ 251
/ 252

261

30 , 13 ,

/ 262
/ 266
/ 273

279

30

/ 280
/ 287
/ 295
/ 305

319

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:14:32

4
 50 ,

→ → → → → →

“ ” 30

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:18:08

5
528

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:20:26

6
 2

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:23:22

30 8%
“ ”
72
• 1964 120 2006

7
42 “ ” 1000 2006 1000
1964 58 42

financial freedom

6
6
“ ” “
”

3 5

8
 [email protected]
http://freeminds.blog.hexun.com/

2010 2 10

30 8%
“ ”
72
• 1964 120 2006
42 “ ” 1000 2006 1000
1964 58 42

financial freedom

6
6
“ ” “
”

9
 3 5

[email protected]
http://freeminds.blog.hexun.com/

2010 2 10

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:28:46

30 8%
“ ”
72
• 1964 120 2006
42 “ ” 1000 2006 1000
1964 58 42

10
 financial freedom

6
6
“ ” “
”

3 5

[email protected]
http://freeminds.blog.hexun.com/

2010 2 10

11
 ——
100

30 30

30

30

30

——

50 ,

12
 640 “
” 594
50

2009

“ ”

13
 “
”

“ ”
120
120

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 21:34:47

14
 “ ”
75

2008 Prince & Assoc. 191

2,000 82%
75%

2008
2.5 400

15
 GDP
GDP GDP

GDP

GDP GDP

GDP

16
 “ ”

—— 1948 8 19

11 20

——

X
20 -60 X
X X ,
,
,

“ ”

17
“ ”
“ ”

“ ”
“ ”

“ ”

07

18
2

19
3

20
4

21
5

22
6

23
 • •
J 100 76%
XING XING
30%
SE J
XING 100 XING
100 “YIYE ” “ QI ”
HUA J
XING
XING
“ ” “ ”
XING J

24
 “ ” “
”

“ ” “
”

“ ” “ ”
“ ” “ ”
“ ”

“
”
“ ”
“ ” “ ”
“ ” “ ”
“ ”

1717 1
3 17 10.5 1816
1821
1 =1/4 1 7.32238
1 =1/20

“ ”
“ ”
“ ”
“ ”

25
 “ ”

“ ”
“ ” “
”
1925
1931
1936 8 -9

——
1949 71.2%
245.6 1
=35
“ ”
1944
60
“
”

1965
1968
1971
8 35
“ ”
100%;

“ ”
“ ” “ ”

1715 ——
“ ” 77 4 72
61

“ ”

26
 30 Livre, 1.45
1.42
100 21.5

• ——
“ ”

15% 100 115

1717 •
• “ ”

1720

15

—— —— ——
—— ——

2008 1130
43%

27
 1923 2 1 10 6300
1
1998

“ ”

1999 2008
1999 1.51 2008
3.71

1918

——

1971

20 80

28
 2008
16.22
78.32% 70%
8000 3000

2008 3.71
4.58 11.64
56.20%

2008

29
 poseidonnep 2010-03-12 22:50:32

2008
2009
9 5

30
 “ ”

100 100

CPI

2003
2007 10 3
2005 2007 10 500%
2005 2007 10 2008
6 20% 2002 24.8 /
2008 170 / 6 7 2008
2007 2008

CPI
CPI CPI

“ ”
“ ”

31
 “ ”

“ ”
“ ”

“ ”

poseidonnep 2010-03-12 22:53:23

1980 • Julian Simon

• Pawl Ehrltch

1980 9 29
200 1000 1990 9 29
5
5 10
5
576.07

1870

3000
16
1850 1859
2007

32
 1931
( )

1951

19 70 90
“ ”
•
“ ”——

1861 4.31
Greenback ,
1879

1974 7 13
1664 1914 250
1664 100
1813 180
1664 1914
91 1914 250

33
 2007
4

20
70 80
20 70

70 80
•
20%

1975 1985 GDP 1.17

1.91 2.73 1997

1971 2006 35 96
99% 96%
95.7% 95.2% 95.1%
89.7% 83.3% 81.5% 1971

30 80% 1.5 14
2 / 6 10 1000
/ 2 / 2009
4330 1993
72
2008 1979 100
2008 503.12
10

34
 5 5 5
5 100
5

2008 7
231000000% 231
10
3

1997
71%

2008

2008 8 5830 2009 2 3880 6 35%

35%
2008
“ ”
2009 5 22
22% 19.8% 2008 16.7%
0.5% 2.5%
12% 13%

“ ”

“ 5 , 6 , 7 ”
“ ” “ VIP ”

35
36
10
10

37
 2001 100 2008 1000

“ ” “ ”
“ ” 38 7.5

30

100 100
100 100 100
100
100 110 110 100 10
1 100 100/ 1+10% =90.91

——

38
 ——

1
1000
1000 1 9000
9000

39
 poseidonnep 2010-03-13 07:42:03

——

“ ”

spread

20%
50%
100%
1000%
“ ”
“ ”

40
 —— ——

99%

1688 HK

“ ” 41
300
4

41
 2008

poseidonnep 2010-03-13 07:43:19

20 70

forward future
option interest rate swap & cross-currency interest rate swap
credit default swap

42
 70 /

DRL

300 500
1000

“
” “ ”

Adjustable Rate
Mortgage 70%
“ ” “ ” (Accumulator Option)
100 KODA(Knock-Out Discount Accumulator)
KODA
CMS Constant Maturity Swap 2007 2 30
CMS 2008 10 68
1250.0 114.0 49.8
163.8

“ ”

Knock-out Option

“
”

43
“ ”

——
AA “ ”

CDO ABS
AA

140 3
60%
100 60

2009 2 100 “
”
“ ” “
” “ ”

——

44
 “ ”
“ ”

venture capital investment

200

poseidonnep 2010-03-13 07:45:58

“ ”

45
 poseidonnep 2010-03-13 07:48:26

——

leverage “
”

“ ”

46
 5000 / 8000 /
5000 / 8000
10000
10000

3000
6000

2008 16.08
20 100 300

47
 2008 9 10
“ ”
400 / 200 /
50% 5070 12.2%
85%
15% 10% 25%

“ ”

A 46
2008 1318
695 2007 1166 584 13% 19%
3041 2007 2397 26.88%
2008 859
402 239 29% 43% 39%

48
4 4 25%
60%

2000
2001 1.8
2004 ebay 2004
25 2005 35.11 2006
62 2007 65.01 2008
“ ” 211 2008
eBay
168.03 20%

100 “ ”

2008
GDP 227% 187%
GDP 78% 64% GDP
200% GDP 240%

49
 1000

20

2008

—— —— —— ——
——

20

2008

poseidonnep 2010-03-13 07:51:40

Friends Joey
Chandler Joey

50
 •

500

100
1000

“ ” “ ”

“ ”

17 “ ”

51
 1634

1636 10

1637 2
2 4
90% 1739 0.005%

1711 ——

1719 1720
1 128
9 1000

12
129
100

1923 200

1994
10% 10%
100%

1925 75000 25000

2000

30

= +

20 90

——

52
 1000
.COM
NET

2007 6000
30
2020 2030
30%

1 =360
80
GDP 10%
1985

80

WTO
30%

——

53
 “ ”
“ ”
“ ”

2007
4000 6000

/ /

“ ”

“ ”

54
 3
90%

“ ”

55
 1950 1971 , 360:1 1971
200-300 1
1985

1971-2009

, 5 , 5%
1987 2.5% ,
1989 5

“ ”
5 1000
7
,
,

1989 1985
4 5 400
300 200 1986 -1990
3 5 80
GNP 1990 GNP 3.3 80
70%
“ ”

56
 GDP 280%

1989
1989 5 2.5% 3.25% 10 3.75%
1989 12 29 38915
40%
1989 15%
225 1979-2009

14 1989
2003 4 80% 1991
2005 46% 1985
70% 1974

57
 poseidonnep 2010-03-13 08:03:02
1990-1992
480 380
1000
50

1988 14 880 1990

1989 21 CIT
2001 1990 15.3 5
5.4 Starwood 1990 61
5
1994 34
1989

20
GDP 200%
20 GDP 40%
2007 1989 46%

58
 “ ”

poseidonnep 2010-03-13 08:04:27

19

“ ” “OK”

10

100
150
150 200 200
300 100
200
1 6 1
6

59
“ ”

200
500

60
61
 ——

50 CFA Institute
CFA
2008 CFA
“ ” 2/3
77% “ ” “ ”
“ ” “ ”

“ ”

30

62
 30 “ ”
30 GDP 1978 3645
2008 314045 86.17 16%
3000
100

“ ”

30

1978 -1994

63
 2008 12 31
2.2542 1.4041
62.3% 8501 37.7% 8

500
1000

“ ”

1996 2006 10
19.51 18.27 18

2009 9 35730.23 1999 22000

2008 1130 70
30
127 270
633
1979 1
1989 1 1999 10 2009
60 1978
2009 GDP 87
600
1999

30
7500

70%

30

64
 30

2007 GDP 60% 80%

30

31
“ ”

2009 8 18.7
7.3% 1.99
1.33 1.78 2009 6
73.7 41.75

2009 6
29.53% 80% 7
30% 50%
70%

……

“ ” 80

“ ” “ ”
70 80 90
“ ” “ ”
2009 REGUS 13

65
 11000 58%
86%
1950
2.7% 1980
13.47% 8%—10%
2007 35.18%
100
2009 12
3.4 33.87
GDP 85.86%
2009 9 33.83 2009 GDP 155.33%
15.51 GDP 71.21%
2000

2009 3800
8 5.26
2010 1 2
2009 6 8221 5.56
2009 58% 2009
85%
2009 7 2012
15%

“ ”

2005 2008 3374.66 4284.89 5273.29

5866.1 2009 2 667
20.8% 2009 2008

66
 “ ”

2006 9 2004
GDP 2004 GDP
5118 GDP 3.05%

——
“ ”
——

67
 ,

100 3% 30
3.72%
1 10%

11

68
 20

—— —— ——
—— —— —— —— ——
—— ——3G —— —— ——
——

“ ” “
”

“ ”

69
 24×7

“ ”
——

2009 6 1.45
2000 2009 809
97% 1.4%

“
” 100 2030 60
4 15 15 1 3.3
1 “8421” (8 4 1 )

30

_ _ _ 2010-03-15 08:45:37

=========================================

70
 2030

___________________________________________________________

600 50

“ ”
600
50

“
” “ ”
600 ( 6,507 )
50

10

5 ( 4,316 )

“ ” 7

“
”

71
 6,000 ( 517 ) 1 ( 863 )

AV

AV 10
( 78 ) GloryQuest AV

6 MONSTORE

5%

15 160
5000
30~40
50~60

A (32~38 )

AV AV
AV
1990 AV AV
( 6.5 ) ( 19.5
)

AV
Joan Sinclair
:“
‘ ’ ‘ ’
”
poseidonnep 2010-03-14 22:10:49

72
 ------------------------------------
, . .
, ( ).
, ,
.

. :10 , 100 .
1000 . ,4 , , 120 .
,100 . (6X120+100)=820 . 180
(1000-820). 180 , .
820. . 4 , .
, . 100 . , 100
110 , 120 . 6X10.

MBA : , . :
, , , ?

, . . ? . :
, . ,
?

, .
Madoff , .Madoff .Buffet
. Buffet , . :he is not
that innocent.

poseidonnep 2010-03-14 22:10:49

------------------------------------

73
 , . .
, (
).
, ,
.

. :10 , 100 .
1000 . ,4 , , 120
. ,100 . (6X120+100)=820 . 180
(1000-820). 180 , .
820. . 4 , .
, . 100 . , 100
110 , 120 . 6X10.

MBA : , . :
, , , ?

, . . ? .
: , . ,
?

, .
Madoff , .Madoff .Buffet
. Buffet , . :he
is not that innocent.

___________________________________________________________

74
 wlingyj 2009-05-02 22:58:48
“ ”

1 “ ”
911 08 SARS

——

“ ”

80

“ ”

75
 “ ”

911 08 SARS

“ ”

“ ” 80

“ ”

76
 “ ”

poseidonnep 2010-03-16 08:56:08

500

18
200

200

77
”

2008

“ ”
“ ”

2008
72% 44%
32% 31% 20%

12%
52% 25% 1991 2007
9.3% 15.7%
24% 47%
Google
2008 110
104.6

47

78
 2008

“ ” “ ” “
” “ ”

71 88

“ ”

1929 -1933
“ ”
1957
60 “ ” •
2000
1973
80

1987 • “ ”

2001 911
2008

“ ”

79
 70

70 80

1985

1971

90 1997

“
” 2008

IMF
2009 62.8%
1996
62.1%

20

80 ——

GDP 70%

“ ” “ ”

80
 50 “ ” 1958
NASA DARPA
50

“ ”

ICANN
3%

IBM 2008
22.9 2007
21% 2008 90% 13.2
2007
2008
18%

2008 31% 30%

2009 6.27

2009
0.8%
0.3% 6
6.4% 7.6%
1.7% 1.8%
1.1%

1
2009 10 15

100

81
 wlingyj 2009-05-02 22:58:48
“ ”

1
“ ” 911 08 SARS

——

“ ”

80

“ ”

82
 “ ”

911 08 SARS

“ ”

“ ” 80

“
”

“ ”

apollosun7 2010-03-16 18:41:08

83
 . . .
. , , .
, , , .
, . " ", , , ,
.

apollosun7 2010-03-16 19:06:38

, .
1. , . .
.
2. , . :
, . , . .
( , ) ( ). ,
, . ,
. .
3. . .
, . ,
, , , .
. , .
.
4. , . ,
. , . .
, . .
.
5. , . .
6. . .
7.Madoff . . .
. .
8. buffet, .
apollosun7 2010-03-16 19:06:38
, .
1. , . .
.
2. , . :
, . , . .
( , ) ( ). ,
, . ,
. .
3. . .
, . ,
, , , .
. , .
.
4. , . ,

84
 . , . .
, . .
.
5. , .
.
6. . .
7.Madoff . . .
. .
8. buffet, .

____________________________________________________________

85
 poseidonnep 2010-03-16 21:05:13
100 48 50
100 GNP 200 8000 100

100 100

2400 2300
110 15
20

2500 170 133

38 36 QQ MSN
FACEBOOK TWITTER

GOOGLE

86
2008 12 14
2 YOUTUBE
24 FACEBOOK
4 EBAY 8000

87
 2008 10

“ ”

50

1987 50 1990

1999 1804
10 1927 20 1960 30 1975 40 1987

88
 50 1999 10 12 60
90 100

1 10
20 10 123 10 30 10
14 10 13 10 12

1950 2003 3
4 5.5 4 GDP
716% 1568% 965% 2860% 1950
5300 2002 5.65 1961 2002
423%
“ ” 40
50 30 1/3
1.5%
10% 50

125
6% 35% 40%
230%

500
500

. 80~90
65 3

100 80%
1970 27 4 6

89
 55 1970 100
65
2050

2004 11 “ ”

15589

20 54% 20 71%

90% 1

“ ” MR-SA

“ ”
1940——1992 52 61
41.5% 2.1

15% 20%
“ ”
120
2008
100 360

“
”

90
 5000 46 5000
5000
5000 4 5

“ ”

apollosun7 2010-03-16 21:45:47

poseidonnep 2010-03-16 20:57:13

......

91
 “ ”
30

“ ”

GDP 1978
1132 2007 51322 1979-2007 14.1%
7.2% 7.1%

GDP

92
 5

2009 2000

100 200

1994

2007
1.3 2007 2.3 56.52%

2006 25%
2007 400
50.8% 2007
40.6 48.6%

“ ”

GDP 2000
GDP GDP
20% 30% 15% 20%
8% GDP 30%

93
 GDP 40%

GDP 2003 -2009 40%

1978 2006
60%-70% 2006
50% 40% 29
40% 1993 -1995 2003
1996
2003 7 40% 2008 10

1978-2006 GDP

2003 40% 7 2003

5000 2004-2007
2007 5.8 2008
6.6 2008 5
4.4
GDP
62.2% 2006 49.90% 1978 48.8%
2006 36.23% 2001 38.9% 2005 47.9%
9 2006 62
58 50 2009 4 7
2008—2009 2008 10

2009 9 26.38
2009 GDP 120% “ ”

2002
2002 10%
33.85% 20% 2.75%
20% 51.70%
10%

20% 52.36% 20% 1.52%

34.45 1
“ ” GDP 9.8%
14% GDP
1989 16.1% 2003 12.6% 2005 10.85% 2006
10.51% 17 5.59
GDP

5 10

94
GDP

GDP 2001
—— 30
2007 21737 1978 104.3
17.4% 18.1% 16.7%
1978 9.7% 2007 66.8% 57.1

2000 50% 2006 60%

70%

1978 343 2007 13786 1978 6.5

7.2% 134 4140 1978
6.3 7.1% 1978 2.56
2007 3.33 1978 2006 1092.4
21114.9 666.7 59005.6
1978 62.10% 2006 26.35%
21.44% 73.65%
2007
2.01 2006 5374
2006 1.6 2007
18020 11645 12173 7775

95
 GDP GDP

2003 2006
48.92% 1978

2002
67% 2006 39.36%

GDP 1991
2008 18 1991 1992 1994 1995

1996 1998
15.31 2003 2.80 2003
2007
11.58
1991 -2008

2008
GDP
1991 2008 GDP
2008
GDP 20%
1991 14.72% 2007 10.92% 2000

2009

80%

GDP 30%
1991 -2008 GDP

96
 2008
GDP 2002

2002 2006
22.21% 44.14% 36.04%% 30.52% 31.76%% GDP 12.47
31.27 25.38 20.12 20.66
2000 2005 63.4%
26.9% 15.5%

GDP
1992 2007
11.73% 21.48% 4.4% 8.74%
20.24% 19.91%
GDP

2005
833 8%
55%
3 2008 2008 4 9
2008 2007 4297 17.2%
3 17 2123
5.9 8 7670 3.0
2.6 ｡ ､ 2007
20.4%､27.2% 26.0%
｡
15663 53.6% 16222 55.5%
17559 60.1%｡
11 1｡ 2008
33869 1.16 29758
1.02 28359 97.0%

27 2002 3.5 2004 6.4

GDP

97
 2007
510 41.5
1 1.35 1981
0.29 2000
0.4 2005 0.47
2006 0.496
2009 3 2009
2008 (
1000 ) 30 8.8
GDP 29%｡ 30
1 1 1.4
16% 20%
80% 5% 50%
“ ”
“ 0.4% 70%
”
12.3% 2
2008 8
2008 2008
2136.73 27.2% 1.3
1308.05 41.2% 5.8
2008 61.24%
2000 42.86% 18.38
14
2009
2013.6 2000 “ ”

2006 2 23 60
2004 1.43 10.97%
CSIS 2009 4
2030 2050 4.38
60 1.08 80 2005 100
16 2025 32% 2050
61%

2004 3502 2000 65.5%

522

1997

98
 2006 1
1 2005 38
11% 8%

“ 2005
8000 1000
500 ” 2007

2008
2008 290.06 2008
900 170 18%
1.5 1 3
3.2 1
“ ”

2009 “ ” “

” “

” 65

7-8 7

“ ”

30 2006
2596 5160 6468 498
6586 76028 2006 4690
588.4 14.3% 12.5% 1.2 2005
1021.4

99
 IT

2003
72.2 70.7 65.6 63.5
52.2 41.4
40 95.2 90.5 85.6 81.2 64.2 55.6

81.5
78.3 75.9 71.9 57.8 53.3

39
27

60 24
50 70 95
3 50

“ ”
“
”
1993 2006
7

“ ” 3 2003 2007
1440 5 2.95

250

100
 2009
2006 6 2008 6 2006 2008

2000 2005 19.6%

2006 15.8% 2007 10.7% 2008 3.45%
2000 2005 13308 61331
35.7% 2006 24% 2007 23.5%

2007
12%
2001 1.73 500
16% 1 7%

1996 2007 17.8

“ ”

80

2005 12 11

“ 36 ” 2005
5 25

101
 36 “ 36 ”
4

“ ” “
” 2004

“ ”

“ ”

—— 30
1979 2007 7424
2002 2007 748
“ ”
“ ” “ ”
2007 30%

2006 8
5 28
21 5
80% 5
18 11 150 20%
90%

80 2008 2008
68.33% 2007 3.19
2008
64.39% 2007 3.35 3.35

“ ”
2/3
300
2

102
 “ ”
“
” “ ”

“ ”
3

“
”

2007 8 20 100
500

“ ” 8
7

4
“ ”

“ ”

“ ”

2003
7 7 6
2003 8
“ ”
1999

1/10

103
 8000 300

“ ”
“ ” 90
1994 65%
1.4 “ ” 50 “ ”
50% 7
15 4000
“ ” “ ” “ ”

“ ” “ ”

“ ” “ ” 60 60 “ ”
“ ”
“ ” “
” “ ” “ ” 178
124 110 1980 “ ” 1985 2 “ ”
130 170 3600 930
11000 4 49 7
“ ”
“ ” 1997 8
90 1998 AE-100
“ ”
20 20 250
20

2008 5 11 “
” 23 “ ”
5

70

2 3

GDP

104
 6
—

70%

“ ”

GDP

“
”
1999
2003
“ ” “ ” “ ”

“ ”

105
“ ”

“
”

“ ”

“ ” 2008

100
“ ” “ ”

“ ”

“ ” “ ”“ =
”

“ ” “ ”

“ ” “ ”

106
 , , ,
... ... : , !

2007

40 75% 82%
79%
55% 82%
89% 48%
60% 70% 75%

“
”

1997

“20
”

107
 “ ”

“ ”
30 50

“ ”
2007

EPS

“ ”
“ ”

poseidonnep 2010-03-18 22:27:13

2007

2008

2008

2008

“ ”

2008
“ ”

ABS CDO
RISK
PREMIUM

“ ”

108
 2008

“ ”

“ ”

“ ”
-

CDS synthetic CDS ARM Home Equity Second-lien

109
 M

“ ”

30 40
70
60% 70% “ ”
“ ”
70

• 1998
1970 32,522 1999 35,864 29
10% 0.33% 1973 1973
2000 7% 2003

110
 8 2000 “ ”

1970
60% 10%
1
GDP 100

2004 median 9 3000 mean

44 8000 “
” 5
51 10% 70% 50%
10% 9 3100 83 1600
28% 5600 51
2.5% 2005 0.469 1967
M
M “ ” 2006
M
90

1995
2003 3500 1500
2005
3333 1591 2007
1890
64%
600
(OECD) 2005 14.9%
OECD 17.1%

1800

1960 1991 20%

70% 85% 20% 2.3% 1.4%
2006 2000 125
2% 1%
20 20 1946 46 1990
60 1997 86 1998 24
20 86% 20 1% 86
1996 358
1998 225 1 25
15 GDP 2000
GDP 100 GDP

111
 iPod
3G iPod 299
iPod 451 , 73
20 8 5
4
iPod

451
iPod
iPod

73 53
19 19

299 iPod 163 75

80 8 26
( 19 ) 1 110

1%
iPod 80
163
50% “ ” 1%
iPod 150
iPod
2004

112
 2000

30

IDC 17%
1000 95%

20
80 500 10 -20
1985 15 -30 50% 500

500 1965-2009

113
 80 500
1 -2.5 90 500 2
-5 3
500 1994-2009

1990 -2006

1997 -2006
1.27 2000-2006 66% 2007 9%
1.12 2000-2006 89%
99% 2000-2006 72%
91% 2000-2006 48% 2007 11%
84% 2000-2006 58%
83% 2000-2006 38%
76% 2000-2006 51%
75% 2000-2006 23%
64% 2000-2006 70%
57% 2000-2006 43%
2006 1990 6 1997 3.7
1990-2006 2.8 1997-2006 2.7 2000-2006 60%

2006 1990 58%

2006 1990 77%
10

“ ”

•
1890 1890
100 1920 66 34% 2009 199
99% 1997 63%

2006
1991 2006 GDP 225 2003 2007
6 4.5

1998 2008
1979

114
 1975-2008

“ ”
“ ”

200 200
100 100
100
100
100

“ ”

115
1816 19 70

1971

1920 3 CPI 2009 4 90

1921 -1922 1926 -1933 1938 -1939
50

=
-

116
 1609

19

“ ”

“ ”

117
 “ ”

Clark Howard
70 1 14 21
2005 3
1 1.03
80 60% 2007 119%

2008
14.64
2.56 850
5000 17.7
2008 14.2 GDP
Security Industry and
Financial Markets Association SIFMA 2008
6.28 1.58
7.86

2006 -2008 40.75% 38.44%

36.71% 500 80% ｡

20 80

Security Industry and Financial Markets Association

SIFMA 2008 5.91
3.25
2.69 11.85 2009
1.8 GDP 13% 1942 1946
1920 GDP 6%

1929

118
 HFR Hedge Fund Research 2007
2.25
1.3 3 Hedge Fund Research
2008 2100
1.72

20-30

5%
• 1
2

20

2007 124 2008 41% 175.3

2008 GDP 3 2008 15.78
3.73 19.51
12%

70

——

Bank of International Settlement, BIS 2006 370

GDP 8 2007
587 GDP 12
393 67% CDS 57.9
10% 14.5

119
 2.44% 2003 4.65% 4 2.21

Security Industry and

Financial Markets Association SIFMA 2008
8.90

CDS
“ ”

ARMS

1975-2008

2006
500 500 7110
2150 30.24%
35% 2006 35
30 CEO
CEO .5
2007 100
15

“ ”

“ ”
“
70 80 ‘ ’ 10

120
 ”

“ ”

1492
“ ”
——

“ ”

19 70

1913
1971

40 50 “
” 1981
1400 1984

90

70 90

80%

121
30

—— —— —— ——
——

2001
6

0.5%

122
 “
”
2000

2000 2001 911

1
2004 6
2001
120 80

2003

“ ”

2004
2004 6 17 0.25
5.25
2005 7
2006

2006 7 2007 2 0.25 2001 3

2003

123
 2006 2007 CDO

1971
• (John Connally)
“ , ”

10% 15% 40% 50%

35% 50%
85%
2009
65.0% 62.8% 1999
25.9% 27.5% 1995 2009 59.02
72.69 , 62.8 8.54 27.5 6.78 3.41
2.12 4.74 0.2%
4.78 2.21

100 140
100
10
130 10 130 130
80 10 140
100 10 20 60
2009 6

1971 2007
“ ” 1 40

124
 86.2
“ ”

2007 21.18 2002

21.18
“ ”3.58
“ ”

“ ”

Ivan Boesky “Greed is all right ”

70

“ ”

“ ”

125
 2016 2017
2037
2008 2017 2045
7950 2008 4050 2008 3.2
1 2045 2.1 1

“ ”

2
8% 12.5

8%
4%
25 20
30
40 40
2.5%

“ ”

“ ”

126
“ ” “ ”
CDO
CDO

CDO
CDO

CDO
(tranch)

CDO

CDO
CDO

CDO 1000 1000

998 3 4
CDO
CDO

“ ”
CDO
2004 8 10
CDO

3A
“ ” “ ”
CDO
CDO CDO 3A
CDO 1800

CDS
CDS

127
 “ ”

2006

CDO
CDO CDO
CDS CDS
1000

“ ”

128
 VAR

(AIG)
AIG AIG
AIG AIG
AIG 1850 “ ”
AIG AIG

AIG AIG
400 •
3 AIG AIG
CDS AIG

AIG
CDS

129
 CDS AIG

100

“ ”
National Bank 1863

,
6 OCC
FED FDIC OTS
NCUA

SEC
NASD

1929

1933 -

1999 -

130
 Shadow
Banking System

Countrywide Financial New Century Financial

Long Beach Financial

“ ”
2003 11.4% 2006 9 15.7%
Long Beach Financial

1998 —— 22
150 3250

150
90%

——

AIG

CDO

“ ”

131
 “ ” “
”
“ ”
“ ”
too big to fail “
”
“ ”
UBS

“ ”

AIG AIG
AIG
AIG
AIG 500

AIG 1850
AIG
AIG

“ ” “ ”

“ ”

132
 Liar’s Poker • Michael Lewis
CDO

CDO
10
“ ”

“ ”

“ ” “ ”

“ ”

quasi-loan

“ ”

2008

“ ” “ ” “ ”
“ ”

133
 21
30%

——

“ ”
“ ”

“ ”
“ ”

“ ”

10%
70 80

“
” 30% 2003
/CS

20% 30% 2003

(Deutsche Bank Securities)

134
 2010 2100
(Mortgage Bankers Association) 2009 670
13%
30% 2009
140 7 12.6 2008 34%

PRIME—— ALT-A—— SUPPRIME——

OPTION ARMS——
2007 10
2009 35% Real Capital
Analytics 2004 2.2
1.3
2009 3
7% 1260

IMF 1.914 1
14% 2.467 7%

2009 3 6.4% 3
9.3% 20

2009
4.9% 1995 2 5.9%

6
“ ”

30

135
 = +

“ ”
2009 “ ”
“ ”

2009

GDP
3 3 50%

“ ” 30
1931
1996 2000

“ ”

“ ”

1929—1933 ,
M2 20% 1929 —1935 , 5.9%

136
 0.8% , ,
1934 5%
-10% 5%

70%

20 1990 7
1991 3 2000 7 2001 9
16
15

1979-2009

OECD
2004 GDP 40 100 GDP 2.5
2009 GDP 4 IMF
2014 114% 3
2009 5
GDP 60% 198.6% 104%
65% 43.5% 50% 2008
2007 1.2 7070 2009 3630
GDP

2008

“ ”
“ ”
“ ”

137
3-5
3-5

“
” “ ”

“
”
“ ”
“ ”

2001

90

2001

2012
40%

138
 “ ”

“ ”

70 80
“ ”

20

8000

8000
12 700

15%

“ ” “ ”

1987-2009

Case Shiller
1965-2009

3 2009
8% 30

139
 2010
40%

2009 3 50%

2008
2009

MARKED TO MARKET

“ ” 2010
1987 20%

1987

2009
—— 2010

“ ” 60%
2009
30 1929 (GDP)
160%, 1932 250% 2008 365% 30
(derivatives)

3-5

140
 10

10

2
5 10

“ ” “ ”

“ ”
“ ”

—— ——
—— —— —— ——
—— —— —— —— ——
—— —— —— ——
—— ——

—— —— ——
—— —— —— ——
—— ——

141
 500

18
200

200

“
”

142
 2008

“ ”
“ ”

2008
72% 44%
32% 31% 20%

12%
52% 25% 1991 2007
9.3% 15.7%
24% 47%
Google
2008 110
104.6

47

143
 2008

“ ” “ ” “
” “ ”

71 88

“ ”

1929 -1933
“ ”
1957
60 “ ” •
2000
1973
80

1987 • “ ”

2001 911
2008

“ ”

144
 70

70 80

1985

1971

90 1997

“
” 2008

IMF
2009 62.8%
1996
62.1%

20

80 ——

GDP 70%

“ ” “ ”

50 “ ” 1958
NASA DARPA

145
 50

“ ”

ICANN
3%

IBM 2008
22.9 2007
21% 2008 90% 13.2
2007
2008
18%

2008 31% 30%

2009 6.27

2009
0.8%
0.3% 6
6.4% 7.6%
1.7% 1.8%
1.1%

1
2009 10 15

100

146
 1
2

3
4

____________________________________________________________

3 21

3 22

1999

1
2%
1%
20% 1%

5%

96.08% 2010
79%
2010 2010
3 15 10 7972

“ ” 5998 75.24% “ ” 1661

20.84% “ ” 3.93% “
” 81%
2010 79% CPI

147
13% 8%
2009 11 CPI

148