Piketty 2003
Piketty 2003
Piketty 2003
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Thomas Piketty
Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Paris-Jourdan, and Centre for Economic Policy
Research
This paper uses data from income tax returns (1915–98), wage tax
returns (1919–98), and inheritance tax returns (1902–94) in order to
compute homogeneous, yearly estimates of income, wage, and wealth
inequality for twentieth-century France. The main conclusion is that
the decline in income inequality that took place during the first half
of the century was mostly accidental. In France, and possibly in a
number of other countries as well, wage inequality has been extremely
stable in the long run, and the secular decline in income inequality
is for the most part a capital income phenomenon. Holders of large
fortunes were badly hurt by major shocks during the 1914–45 period,
and they were never able to fully recover from these shocks, probably
because of the dynamic effects of progressive taxation on capital ac-
cumulation and pretax income inequality.
I. Introduction
The primary objective of this research is to document trends in income
inequality in France during the twentieth century. Did income distri-
bution become more unequal or more equal in France over the course
of the 1901–98 period? What are the specific periods in which income
inequality increased or declined, and what income deciles were most
affected by these trends?
1004
This work relies on three major types of data sources: data from income
tax returns (1915–98), data from wage tax returns (1919–98), and data
from inheritance tax returns (1902–94).
7
The adjustments that I made to these 1900–1910 estimates on the basis of the data
generated by the first few years of the income tax are described in Piketty (2001a, app.
I, pp. 738–41).
8
The tax on wages was actually repealed in 1948, but the tax administration has kept
using these returns to make sure that income tax payers report the right wage.
9
The 1919–38 tables cover only those wage earners whose wage is high enough to be
taxable under the wage tax system (about 15–20 percent of all workers during the interwar
period).
10
All technical details are given in Piketty (2001a, app. D, pp. 657–76). Unlike the
annual income tables published by the tax administration (which had never been used
to compute long-run inequality series until the present study), wage tables had already
been used to produce series on interdecile ratios for the post-1950 period (see Baudelot
and Lebeaupin 1979; Bayet and Julhès 1996). These authors did not compute top wage
share series, however. Most important, pre–World War II wage tables had never been used
until the present study (the very existence of these tables had probably been forgotten,
just as the income tables).
11
All technical details are given in Piketty (2001a, app. J, pp. 744–71). These inheritance
tables had never been used to construct long-run wealth inequality series until the present
study.
12
According to my estimates, the top decile income share during the entire century has
never been as high as in 1935. Note, however, that my average estimates for the 1900–1910
decade probably understate inequality a little bit.
TABLE 1
Income Growth and Income Shares in France, 1900–1910 and 1990–98
Share of Total
Decline of Top
Decile Share
Income Share
Corresponding to
(%) Difference
Income Each Fractile
Fractiles Growth 1900–1910 1990–98 Points Percent (%)
A. Top Fractiles
P0–100 4.48 100.0 100.0 .0 .0
P90–100 3.23 45.0 32.4 ⫺12.6 ⫺28.0 100.0
P95–100 2.77 34.0 21.0 ⫺13.0 ⫺38.3 103.2
P99–100 1.84 19.0 7.8 ⫺11.2 ⫺59.1 88.9
P99.5–100 1.54 15.0 5.2 ⫺9.8 ⫺65.6 78.1
P99.9–100 1.12 8.0 2.0 ⫺6.0 ⫺75.0 47.6
P99.99–100 .83 3.0 .6 ⫺2.4 ⫺81.6 19.4
B. Intermediate Fractiles
P0–90 5.51 55.0 67.6 12.6 22.9
P90–95 4.65 11.0 11.4 .4 3.6 ⫺3.2
P95–99 3.95 15.0 13.2 ⫺1.8 ⫺12.0 14.2
P99–99.5 2.94 4.0 2.6 ⫺1.4 ⫺34.4 10.9
P99.5–99.9 2.02 7.0 3.2 ⫺3.8 ⫺54.9 30.5
P99.9–99.99 1.30 5.0 1.4 ⫺3.6 ⫺71.1 28.2
P99.99–100 .83 3.0 .6 ⫺2.4 ⫺81.6 19.4
Source.—Author’s computations based on income tax returns (see Piketty 2001a, tables 2-1, 2-2, pp.128–29).
Note.—“Income growth” refers to the ratio between the average household incomes of 1990–98 and 1900–1910
(both expressed in 1998 French francs).
percentile, and more than half of the top percentile drop is due to the
top 0.1 percent (see table 1).
The timing of the fall of very top incomes is also striking. Between
1945 and 1998, the income share of the top 1 percent has been fairly
stable (see fig. 2). The secular fall took place exclusively during the
1914–45 period, and especially during the 1930s and World War II. It
is interesting to note that the deflationary years of the Great Depression
had a very different impact on moderately high incomes and on very
top incomes. While the income shares of fractiles P90–95 and P95–99
(the “upper middle class”) increased sharply during the early 1930s, the
income shares of fractiles P99–100 and above (the “rich”) fell (see fig.
2 and App. tables A1 and A2). I shall come back to this below.
16
Strictly speaking, this is more than the data can actually say: depending on the trends
in family structure and correlations between the various types of incomes, a given trend
in wage inequality can translate into various trends in income inequality. But the gap
between fig. 2 and fig. 3 is simply too big to be undone by that kind of bias. Moreover,
note that the correlation of wages between spouses has probably been trending upward
during the twentieth century (as a consequence of the upward trend in female partici-
pation), so that a stable level of wage concentration should actually give rise to an in-
creasing level of income concentration (everything else equal).
17
During the 1950–98 period, P10 has always been fluctuating around 45–50 percent
of average wage, P50 around 80–85 percent of average wage, and P90 around 160–70
percent of average wage (see Piketty 2001a, app. D, table D12, p. 671).
18
The fact that the turning points of postwar trends in wage inequality coincide with
the breaks in French minimum-wage policy was already apparent in the series compiled
by Baudelot and Lebeaupin (1979) and Bayet and Julhès (1996).
As was already noted above, the fact that capital owners experienced
major shocks during the 1914–45 period (and especially during the
1930s and World War II) is fully consistent with the general economic
history of France during that period. In a sense, what happened between
1914 and 1945 is just the normal consequence of an extraordinary re-
cession. Capital income generally tends to be procyclical, and it is natural
to expect capital owners to suffer a lot from the Great Depression and
the war and to be at their secular low in 1944–45, at a time when the
French gross national product was also at a century low.
In fact, what really needs to be explained is why capital owners never
managed to fully recover from the shocks of the 1914–45 period.
One explanation would simply be that capital owners were confronted
during the 1914–45 period with major shocks to their capital holdings
(and not only to their capital income) and that it takes a long time to
reconstitute the level of fortunes and capital income that capitalists
enjoyed before these shocks. The shocks to capital holdings took three
main forms: inflation, bankruptcies, and destructions.
First, one must bear in mind that inflation did act as a powerful capital
tax. The French consumer price index was multiplied by a factor of
more than 100 between 1914 and 1950, which means that bondholders
19
See Piketty (2001a, pp. 214–15; app. H, tables H2–H4, pp. 726–28). These P10 esti-
mates for 1900 and 1930 were computed by using as proxies wages for low-skill agricultural
workers and rural female domestic workers. I used only money wage estimates and did
not try to take into account in-kind payments (which were quite important for agricultural
and domestic workers). The resulting estimates should therefore be considered as a lower
bound for the true P10 in 1900 and 1930: the true P10/average wage ratio might have
declined somewhat between 1900 and 1950, but it certainly did not rise.
23
Unfortunately, there does not seem to exist any systematic, quantitative study of the
1945 nationalization process. Divisia et al. (1956, 3:73–76) describe a number of interesting
examples of nationalization/expropriation, but they do not attempt to quantify the process
at the national level. Similarly, Andrieu, Le Van, and Prost (1987) offer a detailed analysis
of the political context of the nationalization policies, but they do not try to quantify their
importance. I shall come back below to the complicated issue of the long-run impact of
the 1945 nationalizations.
24
High retained earnings during the 1950s–60s were due primarily to the high invest-
ment needs of companies. This situation was exacerbated by the fact that retained earnings
were close to zero during the 1930s (i.e., companies did not cut dividends as much as
they should have during the Great Depression) (see Malissen 1953; Piketty 2001a, pp.
62–63).
25
The fall in the profit share was due primarily to the big wage push of the 1970s (the
minimum wage was increased by 130 percent in real terms between 1968 and 1982–83,
whereas GNP increased by only 40 percent!). The profit share started recovering when
wages were frozen in 1982–83.
26
One key reason why it took so long is that French landlords can (partially) adjust
their rent to market conditions only when they have a new tenant. Note that high inflation
(wage-driven) during the 1970s temporarily halted this recovery process (the same as for
dividends).
27
I have also checked that legally tax-exempt capital income (which has become more
and more important over time) and capital gains (which were excluded from my basic
series altogether) can be only a small part of the story. For instance, tax return data show
that capital gains represent an average income supplement of about 25 percent for fractile
P99.99–100 (see Piketty 2001a, pp. 420–31; app. A, pp. 586–88). This is a nonnegligible
amount in absolute terms, but this is not going to explain why the income share of fractile
P99.99–100 has been divided by five during the twentieth century.
28
For the 1999 figures, see INSEE (2001, pp. 34, 38): 36,583/6,951p5.2. The capital
stock estimate for 1999 is not fully homogeneous with the estimates given above for 1913,
1934, and 1949, but the orders of magnitude seem right.
29
Inheritance series for the nineteenth century can be found in Daumard (1973) and
Bourdieu, Postel-Vinay, and Suwa-Eisenmann (2001). Morrisson (2000) reports top income
share estimates according to which income inequality declined somewhat in France be-
tween 1860 and 1900. But these estimates are based on macroeconomic data alone and
do not take into account the rise in wealth concentration that took place during this
period. On these issues, see Piketty (2001a, pp. 535–42).
30
For detailed series on the number of household workers and domestic servants since
the 1901 census, see Piketty (2001a, app. H, pp. 726–28).
31
The labor cost of domestic servants has increased at a slightly higher rate than per
capita income in the long run (see Piketty 2001a, pp. 86–87), but the gap seems far too
small to explain why the number of domestic servants was divided by five across the century.
In any case, labor costs cannot explain why the number of servants dropped so suddenly
after World War I (there was no sudden variation in labor costs).
32
Before the creation of a progressive income tax in 1914, personal taxation relied on
individual characteristics such as housing rents, the number of doors and windows, etc.
Effective tax rates were roughly proportional and never exceeded 3–4 percent of income
(see Caillaux 1910, pp. 208–9; Piketty 2001a, pp. 236–39). Note also that there did exist
an inheritance tax during the nineteenth century, but it was purely proportional and the
rate was only 1 percent (see below).
33
The large year-to-year variations in fig. 6 (especially for top incomes) show how chaotic
the history of the income tax has been in France. For instance, the 1968 and 1981 spikes
correspond to the large tax increases on the rich that were voted in the aftermath of the
1968 general strike and of the 1981 socialist electoral victory. I offer a detailed historical
account of these politico-economic developments over the 1914–98 period in Piketty
(2001a, chap. 4, pp. 233–334).
34
Existing evidence shows that the negative shocks incurred between 1914 and 1945
and the rise in progressive taxation induced wealthy French families to reduce drastically
their savings rate between 1873–1913 and 1946–53 (see Perrot 1961). Note, however, that
this research by Perrot relies on a few hundred private account books from wealthy French
families, and it would need to be supplemented by extensive new research based on larger
samples.
35
This cumulative process would take place at an even faster pace in case of higher
returns or higher tax rates (see Piketty 2001b, table 3). This mechanism is trivial, but I
believe that it did contribute to amplifying the shocks incurred by capital owners during
the 1914–45 period.
TABLE 2
Impact of Progressive Taxation on Capital Accumulation
xn p
c
1⫺t (
⫹ [1 ⫹ (1 ⫺ t)r]n # 1 ⫺
c
1⫺t ).
36
According to estimates given by Delion and Durupty (1982, p. 191), this output share
was around 15–20 percent between 1945 and 1982, and it shortly reached 30 percent
between 1982 and 1986 (following the nationalizations of 1982), before being drastically
reduced following the privatizations of 1986–87. Nationalized firms have been privatized
one by one since 1986–87, and the public-sector share is now converging toward 0 percent.
40
For a recent survey on historical research on inequality in European countries, see
Morrisson (2000). The only European countries for which annual, long-term income
inequality series are available seem to be Denmark and the Netherlands (unfortunately,
these series do not offer a complete decomposition of the top decile; nor do they offer
composition estimates or separate estimates for wage inequality). In particular, Morrisson
offers only three (very heterogeneous) estimates of income inequality for twentieth-century
France: one for 1900 (this is the 1900–1910 estimate referred to above); one for 1929
(this estimate comes from Sauvy [1965–75], who gives no details about his sources and
methodology; this estimate is vastly inconsistent with the income tax return data for 1929:
for instance, Sauvy underestimates the number of incomes above 600,000 francs by a factor
of four; see Piketty [2001a, app. I, pp. 741–42]); and one for 1975 (this estimate comes
from a 1975 income survey). The estimates reported for Germany and the United Kingdom
suffer from the same limitations.
41
Existing series do not usually offer a complete decomposition of the top decile income
share (see the estimates reported by Morrisson [2000]). But whenever such decomposi-
tions are available, top fractile income shares account for a disproportionate share of the
total decline in the top decile share.
42
See, e.g., Williamson and Lindert (1980), Goldin and Margo (1992), and Goldin and
Katz (1999). For a recent survey, see Lindert (2000).
43
Given the large changes in workforce composition, it is problematic to use occupa-
tional wage ratios to analyze long-run trends in wage inequality. In France, the ratio
between the average wage of managers and the average wage of production workers has
declined enormously in the long run (during both the 1900–1950 and the 1950–98 pe-
riods), although the top decile and top percentile wage shares have been roughly constant
(the explanation for this paradox is simply that the number of managerial jobs has in-
creased a lot; see Piketty [2001a, pp. 203–10]). To my knowledge, there does not exist
any U.S. wage inequality series expressed in terms of fractiles prior to 1940 (starting in
1940, censuses asked a question on wages).
44
Kuznets also mentioned that with a higher variance of earnings in the urban sector,
it might take a long time before inequality starts declining (and it might not decline at
all).
45
After the present study on France was completed, Emmanuel Saez and I constructed
similar long-run series for the United States (see Piketty and Saez, in press). These series
broadly confirm the interpretation advocated in the present paper.
Appendix
TABLE A1
Top Income Shares in France, 1900–1998: Top Fractiles
1038
1039
TABLE A2
(Continued )
References