Review of Three Wheelers Industry - Draft

Assessment of electric two-wheeler, and
three-wheeler industry in India
Greaves Electric Mobility Private Limited.
October 2024
Contents
Review of the Three-Wheeler Industry .....................................................................................................................3
Overview of the Indian Three-wheeler Industry ....................................................................................................3
Competitive Landscape within the three-wheeler industry ...................................................................................7
Overview of the Electric three-wheeler (E3W) segment .....................................................................................13
E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment .............................................................................................................................15
Competitive Landscape within the E Rickshaw subsegment .............................................................................16
E Autos subsegment ...........................................................................................................................................18
Competitive Landscape within the E Auto subsegment .....................................................................................20
Review of the Three-Wheeler Industry
Overview of the Indian Three-wheeler Industry
The Indian three-wheeler Industry witnessed significant upheaval in the last five years between fiscal 2019 to fiscal
2024. From a high of ~702 thousand units in fiscal 2019, the annual sales dropped at ~44% CAGR to reach a low
of ~222 thousand units in fiscal 2021.
Amidst the nation-wide lockdown and in turn, the reduced requirement for mobility impacted the three-wheeler
industry, especially the larger passenger segment significantly and the industry sales plunged 65% y-o-y in fiscal
2021.
Within the automobile sector, three-wheeler industry was one of the worst hit segments during the Covid period.
Drastic fall in last mile transport requirement, fear of infection from shared mobility and in turn increased preference
for personal mobility, inherent financing problems, increased vehicle prices for BSVI vehicles derailed the industry
sales during the pandemic years.
Three-wheeler industry sales Trend
CAGR: 1.6%
CAGR: (43.8)% CAGR: 50.6%

758.2
701.9
638.9
Thousand Units
490.1
272.6
221.9
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data; Retail sales data from VAHAN has been
considered for E Auto segment.
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
From this very low base, industry sales picked up with gradual resumption in economic activities and increase in
mobility amidst reopening of schools/colleges, offices as well as increase in tourism. From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2024
period, industry sales rose at a sharp pace of ~51% CAGR to reach 758-thousand-unit levels in fiscal 2024.
Industry crossed the pre Covid sales levels during the year.
The sharp rise in industry sales during fiscal 2021 to 2024 period was led by the healthy improvement in passenger
segment sales which clocked a sharp 65% CAGR during the same period.
Indian three-wheeler industry is dominated by the passenger segment typically contributing above 75% of the
industry sales. The share of passenger segment dropped during the pandemic years due to the sharp drop in
mobility requirements and in turn the reduced ridership and the significant drop in segment sales.
During the pandemic, the nation-wide lockdown, closure of schools, colleges and offices, coupled with ban on
intracity, intercity travel impacted the requirement of mobility, especially the shared mobility during fiscal 2021. This
sharp drop in ridership requirement impacted the sales of passenger three wheelers. Sales of three-wheeler
passenger segment dropped 74% during the year. On the other hand, the drop in goods segment was relatively
limited given the continued need for the last mile delivery even during the pandemic. In fact, the higher traction for
e commerce during the epidemic restricted the fall in goods segment sales.
Thus, the share of goods segment increased from 18% in fiscal 2020 to 38% in fiscal 2021 while the share of larger
passenger segment dropped from 83% to 62% during the same period.
Segment wise share within the three-wheeler industry
61.8%
69.2%
81.6% 76.8% 81.1%
82.5%
38.2%
30.8%
18.4% 23.2% 18.9%
17.5%
GV PV
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data. Retail sales data from VAHAN has been
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Gradual reopening of economy and rise in mobility, reopening of schools and colleges, rise in tourism and in turn,
the need for last mile connectivity aided the demand for passenger segment from fiscal 2022. From a very low base
of fiscal 2021, the passenger segment clocked a sharp growth at 65% CAGR till fiscal 2024.
The three-wheeler goods segment, which suffered a relatively lesser impact of the pandemic continued its growth
at a relatively moderate pace post pandemic backed by the improvement in macro-economic scenario, rise in
investments, increased constriction activity, continued healthy rise in e retail and the last mile delivery. The goods
segment witnessed growth at 19% CAGR between fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2024 period.
Segment wise split within the three-wheeler industry
701.9 758.2
638.9
Thousand Units
490.1
615.0
573.0
527.0
272.6
376.5
221.9
137.1 188.6
128.9 111.9 113.6 143.3

84.9 84.0
GV PV
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
This relatively faster growth witnessed by the passenger segment expanded its share post pandemic and the
passenger segment sales reached the pre pandemic levels of 80%+ during fiscal 2024.
The passenger three-wheeler segment also received the thrust from increased traction for the EV (E Autos)
segment. The EV passenger segment witnessed a 250% CAGR growth between fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2024 period.
Increasing acceptance of EVs, launch of EV models, government incentives, expanding charging infrastructure
coupled with lower operating costs aided the growth of EV segment within the three-wheeler industry.
EV sales were insignificant during the pre-pandemic era and reached 2.5k (1% penetration) by fiscal 2021. Off this
insignificant base, EV sales grew at a sharp pace of 244% CAGR and reach 100K+ levels by fiscal 2024.
(EV segment is covered in detail in the subsequent section)

Electrification within the three-wheeler industry
758.2
701.9
0.9 638.9 101.7
1.8
490.1
Thousand Units
31.4
272.6
701.0 221.9 656.6
637.1
11.6
2.5 458.6
219.4 261.0
ICE EV
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Support from government in the form of incentives, entry of legacy players in the EV subsegment, improvement in
the EV supply thrusted the growth of EVs within the three-wheeler industry. The shift of customer base from ICE
segment to EVs for the low operating costs and no permit requirements provided an additional kicker to the EV
demand post pandemic.
In turn the EV penetration within the three-wheeler industry increased from an insignificant 0.1% in fiscal 2019 to a
sizeable 13% by fiscal 2024.
Electrification within the three-wheeler industry
0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 4.2% 6.4%

13.4%
99.9% 99.7% 98.9% 95.8% 93.6%

86.6%
ICE EV
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Competitive Landscape within the three-wheeler industry

The three-wheeler industry is dominated by few large players who contribute to more than 90% of the industry
demand. The top 5 players Bajaj, Piaggio, Mahindra, Atul Auto & TVS lead the industry primarily contributing to the
industry demand. These five players contributed nearly 97% of the industry sales during fiscal 2024.
Relatively smaller players like Continental Engines and the recent entrants TI clean mobility, GEM have been
increasing their share gradually in the industry. From nearly 99% contribution during fiscal 2019, the share of large
players reduced to 97% in fiscal 2024. And reached 96% during first half of fiscal 2025.
Player wise contribution within the overall three-wheeler industry
0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9%

2.4% 1.9% 3.7%
9.5% 9.8%
3.2% 3.3% 0.01% 2.8% 0.01% 3.0% 0.04%
9.8% 12.4% 9.4% 12.3%
6.4% 6.4% 13.8%
7.1% 4.0% 2.4%
5.4% 2.7%
24.2% 23.9% 19.0% 16.4% 14.1%
17.1%
28.3%
57.2% 58.9% 61.2% 62.6% 62.5%

56.8%
49.2%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1FY25
Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto M&M TVS GEM Others
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retails of MLR Auto is considered for
calculating share of Greaves Electric Mobility. Retail sales data from VAHAN has been considered for E Auto segment.
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Bajaj leads the three-wheeler industry with more than 50% share. In the last 5 years, Bajaj has, in fact, expanded
its presence in the industry and commanded ~63% share during fiscal 2024 and H1 of fiscal 2025. Presence of
Bajaj is dominant in the larger Passenger segment where its contribution has been above 60% throughout the last
5 years. Supported by increased presence in the E Auto segment, Bajaj extended its share further in the passenger
segment to ~69% by fiscal 2024. This increased presence in the passenger segment boosted Bajaj’s share in the
overall two-wheeler industry to ~63% in fiscal 2024.
Although the share of Bajaj in the passenger segment remained healthy, the company’s share dropped to 49% in
the overall industry sales in fiscal 2021 amidst the sharp drop in passenger vehicles segment during the pandemic.
However, with passenger segment rebounding post pandemic, its share in the overall industry also increased to
63% by fiscal 2024. In the first half of fiscal 2025, share of Bajaj remained steady.
Over and above the dominance in the passenger segment, the increased presence in the goods segment also
aided Bajaj’s share in the overall industry.
The second largest player Piaggio dominated the Goods segment with more than 40% share within the
subsegment. However, it has been losing ground to Bajaj. The company has relatively lower share in the
passenger segment. Amidst the intense competition, its share has dropped from 20% in fiscal 2019 to 14% by
fiscal 2024 in the larger passenger segment. While in goods segment, from a high base of ~45% in fiscal 2019 its
share dropped to 26% in fiscal 2024.
Third largest player, Mahindra has been gaining ground in the industry led by its increasing presence in the
passenger segment. The rising share of EVs within the industry coupled with company’s higher presence in the E
Auto segment is supporting this growth. Additionally, Mahindra managed to retain its presence in the goods
segment backing the expansion in the overall three-wheeler industry.
Relatively smaller player, TVS, which is predominantly present in the passenger subsegment, has also maintained
its presence in the 2-4% range. Company has been gradually increasing its presence in the goods subsegment. On
the other hand, Atul Auto has been losing ground to larger players in the last 5 years.
Player wise contribution within the Passenger segment of three-wheeler industry
0.4% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 3.0%

2.9%
8.5%
2.3%
9.1% 6.0% 4.5% 4.2% 0.00% 3.3% 0.00% 3.5% 0.04%
8.5% 10.7% 7.3% 11.1%
4.3% 4.4% 2.2% 13.5%
5.1% 4.0% 1.3%
15.7% 1.5%
19.6% 20.0% 10.4% 14.2% 12.2%
19.5%
64.3% 63.6% 69.0% 69.4% 68.5% 66.3%

59.5%
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retails of MLR Auto are considered for
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Player wise contribution within the Goods segment of three-wheeler industry
2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 6.6% 9.5% 11.8% 8.9%
14.1% 13.3% 12.1% 0.4%

0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
16.3% 16.1% 15.2%
10.3% 17.8%
15.4% 15.7%
8.5% 9.2%
9.7% 7.1%
42.5% 32.0% 24.1%
41.9% 30.2% 26.2%
44.7%
36.2% 36.9% 42.3%

32.6% 34.0%
23.8% 26.9%
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retails of MLR Auto are considered for
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Demand drivers
Easier availability of finance
Given the relatively humble financial profile of a typical three-wheeler buyer, finance availability plays a significant
role in the three-wheeler industry sales. In fact, within the automobile segments, finance penetration levels for the
three-wheeler segment are one of the highest at ~95%.
Over the years, continued availability of finance as well as accommodative stance of the financiers has aided the
growth of three-wheeler segment. Additionally, sales growth in the 3W industry was accelerated by financial
incentives, such as subsidies, interest on subvention on loans, and hire-purchase schemes, along with the offering
of the permit-exchange system at no additional cost, easier availability of finance, high LTV (Loan to value) ratio,
competitive interest rates, and higher funding provided by various banks and NBFCs.
Moreover, financers have been expanding their presence. Stringent credit norms and credit information through the
Credit Information Bureau (India) Ltd (CIBIL) have helped players widen their customer base. The entry of NBFCs
targeting the markets, banks had exited, with focus largely on non-metros, have fuelled the expansion.
Going forwards, the continued support from financers is expected to aid the growth of three-wheeler industry in the
long-term horizon.
Stable agricultural output
Rural economy plays a significant part in the three-wheeler segment with more than 50% of the demand coming from
the rural areas.
Rural India is still primarily agrarian and with 86% of land holdings, small and marginal farmers dominate the Indian
agricultural landscape. These farmers rely on monsoon for irrigation; hence, its timely arrival and adequacy are
needed for a good crop. Any negative impact on crop supply due to low rainfall has a cascading effect on the rural
economy, as it leads to reduced earnings and subsequently lower spending.
Monsoon has been favorable over the past few years with deviation in the acceptable range. In the last 5 years, the
performance of the agriculture sector has been encouraging. In fact, the Agri GVA grew at a healthy growth pace of
4.2% CAGR during fiscal 2019-2024 period. This 4.2% growth is despite a slowdown witnessed in fiscal 2024
(1.4% growth) due to the unfavourable monsoon.
Fiscal 2024 witnessed an uneven spread of rainfall and overall monsoon levels were 6% deficient than the long-
period average.
During the current year fiscal 2025, India received favourable rains with 8% higher rainfall than its long period
average (108% of the LPA) in the June to September 2024 period. From a region-wise perspective, the rainfall
distribution turned more equitable with the deficit in the north-west region somewhat reversing, excess in the
southern peninsula easing and the deficit in the north-east region moderating in the current year.
This year, the healthy, timely and well-distributed rainfall is expected to lift agriculture income by bolstering crop
output, which was impacted in the past fiscal and is currently showing signs of revival. The healthy rainfall in the
current year, also aided the reservoir levels which are expected to support the Rabi crop in the second half of the
current year aiding the rural economy.
Thus, Agri GVA is expected to grow at a healthy pace of 3.5% in fiscal 2025.
Additionally, robust crop output is expected to help restrict food inflation, which has been high in the last 2/3 years.
Combating food inflation, with non-food inflation already being low, can also provide policy room for interest rate
cuts.
The expected improvement in rural incomes, subdued inflation levels as well as the possibility of a rate cut will aid
the three-wheeler industry growth.
Steady growth in industrial and Services GVA
The industry sector holds a prominent position in the Indian economy, constituting 30% of total GVA. During fiscal
2019-2024 period, Industry GVA clocked a healthy growth at 4.3% CAGR. Industry GVA is expected to grow at
faster pace of 6% during fiscal 2025 aided by expected improvement in manufacturing as well as construction
activities.
Services GVA (~55% share in total GVA) clocked a relatively faster growth at 4.8% CAGR in fiscal 2019-2024 period.
In 2024, the services GVA witnessed a healthy 7.6% growth. Even going ahead, the services sector is poised to grow
at a healthy pace of ~8% in fiscal 2025.
The projected improvement in Industry & Services sector GVA is expected to aid the three-wheeler industry demand
going ahead.
Growth in Gig worker Economy and e-commerce Industry

The gig worker and e commerce economy are significant contributors to the industry demand due to last mile delivery
vehicle requirement.
According to NITI Aayog, there were nearly 6.8 million gig workers engaged in the gig economy including food,
grocery, electronics, and e commerce last mile delivery work during fiscal 2020. The gig workforce is expected to
expand to 23.5 million by fiscal 2030 backed by the expected rise in underlying industries of e-commerce and food
delivery services.
The Indian e-commerce industry, estimated at ~Rs 3,000 billion in fiscal 2023, has had a phenomenal run over the
past few years. The industry has managed to attract not only consumers but also investors across the world and has
grown more than three-fold between fiscals 2018 and 2023 on the back of rising internet penetration, increasing
awareness of online shopping, and lucrative deals and discounts offered by well-established players and start-ups.
However, growth moderated a bit, albeit remained healthy in fiscal 2023.
During fiscal 2024, E commerce industry is estimated to have witnessed a further 17-19% growth reaching Rs 3550-
3600 billion levels.
E-commerce Industry Outlook
CAGR: 21 % CAGR: 21-26%

6600-6700
INR Billion
3550-3600
3034
1400
FY19 FY23 FY24E FY27P

Source: CRISIL MI&A
Even going ahead, demand is expected to improve by 20-22%, in fiscal 2025 to reach Rs 4300-4400 billion levels
led by improving consumer sentiment and moderating inflation.
CRISIL MI&A projects the e-commerce industry to cross Rs 6.6 trillion by fiscal 2027, logging a CAGR of 21-26%
between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2027.
This provides a vast mobility-solution opportunity for three-wheeler industry using EVs in the middle- and last-mile
connectivity. Electric 3Ws provide an essential element of this supply chain.
Overview of the Electric three-wheeler (E3W) segment
With the emphasis on reducing the carbon footprint, electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining importance globally. India is
also a signatory to the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The
country is also part of the EV30@30 campaign, targeting a 30% sales share for EVs by 2030.
The Indian government has been extending its support via Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and
Electric vehicles (FAME), EMPS, PM E Drive schemes coupled with tax-rate cuts to boost EV adoption.
Furthermore, growing awareness, concern for environmental issues, and keener focus from automotive companies
are driving electrification in India. The EV segment received a real thrust in the past two years with model launches,
increasing awareness, elevated fuel prices, and improvement in infrastructure support.
A sharp rise in fuel costs in the past few years provided an added incentive to the price-sensitive customers of
three-wheelers. Moreover, vehicle launches from the industry backed the growth in adoption, especially from fiscal
2023.
Overall E three-wheeler segment, consisting of both E Rickshaw (L3 category) and E Autos (L5 category) has
grown at a healthy pace of 40% CAGR in the last 5 years. This healthy growth in E3Ws is led by the sharp rise in
the E Auto subsegment which grew at a much faster pace of 160% CAGR during fiscal 2019- fiscal 2024 period.
E 3W Retail sales trend (L3 & L5 category)
CAGR: 40.3%
Thousand Units
531
373
142 174
115 89
Note: Includes E auto (L5) and E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment retail sales data. Retail sales data from VAHAN has been considered.
Source: VAHAN
E Autos is the relatively newer and fast growing subsegment within the E three-wheeler segment. E-autos and E-
Rickshaws differ primarily in the design specification of electric powertrain, performance (in terms of torque and
maximum speed) and passenger capacity. E-Rickshaws are a low-cost variant of E-Autos, without an exact Internal
Combustion Engine (ICE) counterpart.
E-autos (i.e., the L5 category) are relatively more powerful, use lithium-ion batteries and have an average speed of
more than 25 kmph.
Unlike E Rickshaws, E Autos are comparable with their ICE counterparts in terms of performance and speed, the E
Rickshaw segment has its limitations and cannot replace the ICE three wheelers.
However, given the lower acquisition cost of the E Rickshaws and longer vintage in the industry, they dominate the
E3W segment.
Subsegment wise Contribution within E3W Retail sales (L3 + L5 category)
84% 80%
99% 97% 94% 92%
99%
1% 1% 3% 16% 20%
6% 8%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1 FY25
E Auto E Rickshaw
Note: Includes E auto (L5) and E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment retail sales data. Retail sales data from VAHAN has been considered.
Source: VAHAN
E Rickshaw segment which is predominantly used for a short distance connectivity and last mile delivery, continued
to command leading share in the E3W segment as of H1 fiscal 2025. However, given the limited power, lower
battery capacity and limited speed has restricted the sales of the subsegment, and it has been losing ground to E
Autos subsegment.
The emergence of more powerful- comparable with ICE vehicle, E Autos especially from large, organised players
moderated the sales growth of the E Rickshaw subsegment. However, in the last 5 years, the E Rickshaw segment
retails still grew at 36% CAGR.
Much faster growth achieved by the E Auto segment exerted pressure on the share of E Rickshaws and its
contribution dropped from a high base of nearly 99% in fiscal 2019 to 84% by fiscal 2024. Its share dropped further
in H1 of fiscal 2025 to ~80%.
Increasing organised play amidst the growing offerings from large legacy players as well as shift from ICE 3W
towards the comparable E Auto segment has aided the sharp growth in the E Auto subsegment. This faster rise in
E Auto retails have boosted the share of E Autos within the E3W segment.
E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment
The E Rickshaw subsegment witnessed a healthy growth during last 5 years led by rising acceptance of EV,
continued requirement for last mile connectivity, increased mobility post pandemic as well as the rise in
requirement from the e commerce subsegment.
The subsegment retails clocked a healthy 36% CAGR during fiscal 2019- 2024 period, despite a sharp drop seen
during the pandemic period. The E Rickshaw segment, which is dominated by the passenger subsegment, saw a
sharp 37% drop in retails during fiscal 2021 amidst the sudden drop in mobility requirement due to the pandemic.
E Rickshaw Retail sales trend
CAGR: 35.7%
Thousand Units
531
373
142 174
115 89
Note: Includes E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment sales data, does not include E Auto (L5) subsegment data, Retail sales data from VAHAN has
been considered.
Source: VAHAN
The passenger E Rickshaw segment typically used for a short distance connectivity and in the form of shared
mobility from bus/train/metro stations, commercial centres. The lockdowns, closure of schools/colleges and offices
during the pandemic impacted the requirement for the last mile connectivity and in turn the passenger E Rickshaws
sales. The passenger E Rickshaw segment dropped 42% during fiscal 2021.
On the other hand, the goods E Rickshaw segment witnessed a healthy growth, from a low base, during the same
year led by the increased need for last mile delivery for e commerce segments. Thus, the share of goods E
Rickshaw segment rose during the year to 11%.
Post pandemic, in the next three years, the goods E Rickshaw segment increased at a healthy pace of 58% led by
the continued demand for last mile delivery while the larger passenger segment grew at a much faster pace of 82%
CAGR from the reduced base of fiscal 2021 backed by improvement in the overall mobility, resumption of
schools/colleges and offices. The revamped tourist demand also aided the passenger segment growth.
In turn, the share of passenger segment expanded to 92% by fiscal 2024.

Segment wise split within the E Rickshaw segment
89% 92% 94% 92% 89%

97% 96%
11% 8% 6% 8% 11%
3% 4%
GV PV
been considered.
Source: VAHAN
Competitive Landscape within the E Rickshaw subsegment

Unlike the E Auto segment, the E Rickshaw subsegment is highly fragmented and dominated by small unorganised
players. Few large players like YC electric, Saera Electric, Dilli Electric, M&M, GEM contribute 25-30% retails of the
market. The rest 70-75% is contributed by numerous small unorganised players.
Within the large players, YC Electric leads the E Rickshaw subsegment with around 8-10% share, followed by
Saera Electric contributing 4-6% and Dilli Electric at 3-5%.
Player wise contribution within E Rickshaw subsegment
69.0% 68.5% 65.2% 67.2% 71.4%

72.9% 74.5%
1.9% 3.6% 1.6%

1.9% 3.1%2.4% 3.5% 4.4% 3.9%1.5%
2.6% 1.1%
3.0% 1.8%7.0% 2.0% 5.4% 1.9% 6.7%
2.3% 4.1%
3.0%
1.5% 6.0%
2.8% 3.8% 4.3%
2.3% 3.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1%
3.0% 4.7%
3.2% 3.9% 4.6% 5.1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.5% 4.3%
9.8% 10.3% 10.6% 10.6% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0%
YC Electric Saera Electric Dilli Electric M&M Energy electric Champion Poly Plast GEM Others
been considered. Best way Agency retails have been considered for GEM contribution.
Source: VAHAN
M&M, Atul Auto which have notable presence in the ICE and E Auto segments, have offerings in the E Rickshaw
segment as well. Although their share in the overall E Rickshaw market is limited. Greaves Electric Mobility GEM
which has recently introduced products in the E Auto space also commands 1-2% share in the E Rickshaw
subsegment.
Player wise contribution within Passenger E Rickshaw subsegment
68.4% 66.9% 64.4% 67.1%

72.6% 71.1% 74.3%
2.0% 2.7% 3.8% 1.6%

1.9% 4.7% 4.1%1.6%
3.0% 1.8%
3.1%
1.6% 3.7%2.1%
2.0% 2.7%1.2% 2.2%
2.3% 4.2% 7.2% 6.7% 5.3% 6.3% 2.3% 4.0% 2.5% 2.2%
2.9% 2.5% 3.4% 4.0% 4.4% 4.0%
3.1% 3.0% 4.0% 4.5% 5.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6%
9.9% 10.6% 11.4% 10.9% 8.7% 8.1% 8.0%
Source: VAHAN
Player wise contribution within Goods E Rickshaw subsegment
73.5% 69.1%
81.5% 75.8% 76.1%
83.3% 84.1%
0.7% 1.2% 0.6%

1.0% 1.3%1.0% 11.3% 0.4%
0.4% 1.0% 0.7%
0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 6.3% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1% 0.7%
1.0%
1.5% 0.2% 2.4%0.7% 0.9% 2.5% 0.5% 4.8% 7.4% 8.0% 7.7% 6.9%
4.6%
3.5% 4.4% 2.5% 4.6% 5.5% 2.4% 3.2% 3.9%
4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 7.2% 5.5% 6.6% 7.6%
Source: VAHAN
E Autos subsegment
From a very low base of fiscal 2019, the E Autos subsegment sales have skyrocketed in the last five years crossing
1 lakh retails mark during fiscal 2024.
Increasing offerings from OEMs, improving EV supply, rising EV awareness, expanding charging infrastructure,
lower operating costs, relatively lower range anxiety, ability to charge at home aided the growth of E Autos in the
last 5 years. Additionally, expanding E commerce segment and preference of large E commerce players for the EV
three-wheeler segment provided an added boost to the EV sales. In turn, the E Auto retails have grown at a
stupendous pace of 160% CAGR during fiscal 2019- fiscal 2024 period.
Conversely, the sales of ICE vehicles have contracted at ~1% during the same period, supporting the sharp growth
in the E Auto penetration from an insignificant 0.1% in fiscal 2019 to 13% by fiscal 2024. In fact, the E Auto
penetration crossed 15% mark during the first half of fiscal 2025.
E Auto Retail sales trend
CAGR: 160%
Thousand Units
101.7
31.4
11.6
0.9 1.8 2.5
Retail sales data from VAHAN has been considered for E Auto segment.
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
E Auto penetration within the three-wheeler industry
13.4%
6.4%
4.2%
1.1%
0.1% 0.3%
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retail sales data from VAHAN has been
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
In line with the ICE three-wheeler segment, passenger subsegment dominates the E Auto subsegment as well.
However, its contribution took a hit during the pandemic period amidst the reduced mobility requirement due to the
lockdowns and closure of offices, schools/colleges as well as reduced tourism.
Normalising economic activity, reopening of offices, schools/colleges as well as increased tourism boosted the
demand for passenger segment. In turn, the share of passenger subsegment within E Autos bounced back and
reached ~70% in fiscal 2024. In fact, in the first half of fiscal 2025, the share of passenger E Autos rose to 81%.
Conversely, the goods segment received a boost during the pandemic years led by the increased need for the last
mile delivery from E commerce players. This increased requirement boosted the share of goods segment during
the pandemic years. However, the rebounding of the larger passenger segment post pandemic restricted the share
of goods segment in the later years.
Although the share of E Auto goods segment dropped in the last 5 years, the E Auto goods retails grew at a sharp
pace of 154% CAGR.
The E Auto Passenger segment witnessed a revival post pandemic, and their retails grew at a relatively faster rate
of 163% CAGR during fiscal 2019-2024 period expanding its presence in the E Auto subsegment.
Segment wise split within the E Auto Industry
42.9% 48.9%
64.8% 66.2% 68.8%
81.3% 81.2%
57.1% 51.1%
35.2% 33.8% 31.2%
18.7% 18.8%
GV PV
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retail sales data from VAHAN has been
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Competitive Landscape within the E Auto subsegment

The E Auto segment was relatively fragmented especially during the pre-covid period. Amongst the larger players
in the three-wheeler industry, Mahindra & Atul Auto had a sizeable share.
Share of large players increased in the last 5 years with increased product launches, improvement in vehicle supply
as well as expansion in the reach.
M&M continued to dominate the E Auto space in the last 5 years. Its share increased from 4% in fiscal 2019 to
~39% by fiscal 2024. Company dominance is more in the larger passenger segment aiding its share in the overall
E Auto subsegment.
Player wise contribution within the E Auto segment
17.6%
30.2% 24.4% 0.3%
37.1% 34.0% 2.2% 0.4%
44.0% 0.1%
0.1% 13.0%
63.4% 1.9%
12.0% 3.5% 0.1%
3.4% 24.2%
4.9% 28.7%
14.6% 27.3% 27.3%
10.7%
1.2% 0.9%
19.9% 52.9%
39.3% 35.1% 38.6% 37.8%
1.0% 32.1%
11.3%
4.4%
M&M Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto GEM TVS Others
Note: Includes E Auto (L5) subsegment sales data, does not include E Rickshaw (L3) subsegment data, Retail sales data from VAHAN has
been considered for E Auto segment. Retails of MLR Auto are considered for calculating share of Greaves Electric Mobility GEM.
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Within E Auto passenger segment, Bajaj has gained a sizeable ground in the last two years aided by the improved
supply as well as reach of its E Auto models. Even within the E Auto Goods segment Bajaj has extended its
presence in the last 2 years.
Piaggio has also expanded its presence in the E Auto space with increased offerings in the last few years. In turn
its share rose from 1% in fiscal 2019 to ~24% by fiscal 2024. However, it lost some ground to Bajaj in the first half
of fiscal 2025.
One of the early contributors, Atul Auto has been losing ground to other large players amidst the intensified
competition within the E Auto segment.
Recent entrant Greaves Electric Mobility GEM has gradually expanded its presence in the subsegment in the last
two years. Its share reached ~0.3% during first half of fiscal 2025.
Player wise contribution within the E Auto Passenger subsegment
17.6% 12.2% 11.9%

32.4% 28.9% 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.4%
39.5% 2.3% 0.1% 14.1%
0.3%
62.4% 3.2% 28.9%
3.4% 30.5%
6.8%
9.8% 23.5% 32.3%
1.5% 1.1% 14.1%
12.0% 57.4%
1.6% 48.2% 44.4% 49.4% 43.4% 39.8%
17.2%
6.8%
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Player wise contribution within the E Auto Cargo subsegment
25.9%
43.3% 42.6%
49.6% 51.0%
65.3% 63.7%
28.8% 0.3%
3.6% 0.1% 6.5%
1.3%
4.7% 3.4% 0.3% 8.2%
30.2% 14.0% 13.1%
24.2%
3.2%
44.0%
34.3% 35.4%
22.9% 28.0% 29.3%
21.4%
0.3% 0.9%
Source: SIAM, VAHAN
Drivers for electrification
Total cost of ownership (TCO)
The TCO for an electric 3W is 47% lower than that of a petrol 3W and 43% lower than that of a CNG 3W for
30,000km in fiscal 2025. This is projected to be 51% lower versus petrol and 48% lower versus CNG in fiscal 2030
for the same running, highlighting the viability of electric 3Ws for a typical commercial application over the long term
horizon. Expected reduction in battery prices, increasing efficiency will widen the gap between the cost of
ownership of E3Ws (E Autos) going ahead.
Thus, the lowered cost of ownership is expected to provide a boost to 3W electrification in the long-term horizon.
Additionally, unlike ICE vehicles, e-3W passenger vehicles do not fall under the ambit of the permit system, leading
to a shift in the customer preference towards e-3Ws.
TCO for 3Ws in FY25 for four-year ownership
Annual running 30,000 km 35,000 km 40,000 km
Petrol-equivalent 3W EV 47% lower cost than petrol 51% lower cost than petrol 53% lower cost than petrol
CNG-equivalent 3W EV 43% lower cost than CNG 47% lower cost than CNG 50% lower cost than CNG
TCO for 3W in FY30 for a four-year ownership
Annual running 30,000 km 35,000 km 40,000 km
Petrol-equivalent 3W EV 51% lower cost than petrol 54% lower cost than petrol 57% lower cost than petrol
CNG-equivalent 3W EV 48% lower cost than CNG 51% lower cost than CNG 53% lower cost than CNG
Note: Total cost of ownership analysis framework takes into consideration down payment/ initial payment, Incentive/subsidies, EMI, fuel cost,
maintenance cost and battery replacement cost if any over the ownership period adjusted for the resale value, Inclusive of PM e Drive subsidy
and State subsidy for Delhi, E Autos have been considered for the calculation.
Source: Industry, CRISIL MI&A
Government support in EV adoption
Under the government’s push for the use of EV in the country, the National Mission on Electric Mobility was approved
in 2011 and its plan, called the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP 2020), was released in 2013. In April
2015, the Faster Adoption of Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicles in India (FAME India) was launched as
a part of the mission. The first phase of FAME scheme continued until March 31, 2019, and the second phase, termed
as FAME-II, was launched on April 1, 2019. FAME-II aimed to strengthen the EV manufacturing ecosystem in the
country through demand incentives and the establishment of a network of charging stations.
Incentive structure under FAME II
Source: Department of Heavy Industries (DHI), CRISIL MI&A

FAME II versus FAME I
Source: Department of Heavy Industries (DHI), CRISIL MI&A
As a replacement of FAME II, Ministry of Heavy Industries announced Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme 2024
with a total outlay of Rs. 500 crore to be implemented from 1st April to 31st July 2024 (extended till September
2024). The EMPS scheme was applicable on 2W EV and three-wheeler (e-3Ws) to provide further impetus to
green mobility and promote electric vehicle manufacturing in the Country.
Recently, the EMPS subsidy was replaced by the new PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle
Enhancement (PM E-DRIVE) Scheme for promotion of electric mobility in the country to be implemented from 1st
Oct 2024 to 2026. The scheme has an outlay of Rs 10,900 crore over a period of two years. Subsidies/Demand
incentives worth Rs.3,679 crore have been provided to incentivize e-2Ws, e-3Ws, e-ambulances, e-trucks and
other emerging EVs. The scheme will support 3.16 lakh e-3Ws.
Under the PM E Drive scheme, three-wheelers, including e-rickshaws, will get a demand incentive of Rs 25,000 in
the first year, which will be halved to Rs 12,500 in the second year.
Incentive for the L5 category will also be halved from Rs 5,000 per kWh in the ongoing financial year to Rs 2,500
per kWh from April 2025. The overall incentive limit will also drop from Rs 50,000 in fiscal 2025 to Rs 25,000 in
fiscal 2026.
Increasing Charging Infrastructure
To support the rising electric vehicle population, there is a growing focus on expanding the supporting charging
infrastructure network across the country. Public charging stations are being installed in cities, highways, and
commercial areas, making it more convenient for EV owners to charge their vehicles. There is an increasing
adoption of fast charging technologies, such as DC fast charging, to reduce charging times and provide greater
convenience to EV users.
Setting up charging stations demands a considerable quantum of investment, which includes capital expenditure,
grid connection fees, and operations and maintenance expenditures. Another issue for charging infrastructure
development is assuring charger compatibility. As a result, in the charging infra segment, capital availability as well
as technical skill is required.
To address this issue, the leading EV charger manufacturers in India are currently engaged in manufacturing a
diverse product portfolio of AC and DC chargers.
Additionally, to aid the charging infrastructure, the government has allotted Rs 2,000 crore as the total outlay in the
recently launched PM e Drive scheme, to establish a robust network of public charging stations, including 22,100
fast chargers for e-4Ws, 1,800 for e-buses, and 48,400 for e2Ws and e-3Ws.
CRISIL MI&A estimates the overall public charging infrastructure in India to rise from nearly 23 thousand in fiscal
2024 to 120-140 thousand by fiscal 2029. Increased charging infrastructure is expected to provide further impetus
to the electrification within the three-wheeler segment.
Replacement opportunity in three-wheelers
Demand for 3Ws has improved after the pandemic as customers are upgrading and replacing old fleet for higher
uptime and cleaner vehicles. The replacement market for 3Ws has expanded. Pent-up demand from fiscal 2021
(when vehicular moment was restricted) has helped the segment clock healthy growth post the Covid period.
Further, demand in the replacement market is expected to grow owing to deeper penetration of electric three-
wheelers. Additionally, central and state subsidies have lowered the capital cost. Also, some of the states have
either reduced or waived of registration fees, road tax and permit requirement for electric three-wheelers.
Moreover, these vehicles have inherently lower running cost. Overall, their cost of ownership is much lower than
conventional diesel or CNG three-wheelers, rendering shift to electric 3Ws attractive.
Other factors driving growth
• Favourable cost economics, strong charging infrastructure, easy availability of finance should drive the
growth of e-autos
• E-retail is currently an important segment in E3W sales. An improving economy amid low-to-moderate
inflation is expected to drive consumer spending in propelling retail-industry growth driving the sales of E3W
even further.
• A stronger infrastructure network (metro lines and road connectivity) and the need for zero-emission 3Ws for
last-mile connectivity to also support electrification in the longer run.

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Assessment of electric two-wheeler, and

three-wheeler industry in India

Greaves Electric Mobility Private Limited.

Three-wheeler industry sales Trend

CAGR: (43.8)% CAGR: 50.6%

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Segment wise share within the three-wheeler industry

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

128.9 111.9 113.6 143.3

Source: SIAM, VAHAN

(EV segment is covered in detail in the subsequent section)

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Electrification within the three-wheeler industry

0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 4.2% 6.4%

99.9% 99.7% 98.9% 95.8% 93.6%

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Competitive Landscape within the three-wheeler industry

Player wise contribution within the overall three-wheeler industry

0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.9%

57.2% 58.9% 61.2% 62.6% 62.5%

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1FY25

Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto M&M TVS GEM Others

Player wise contribution within the Passenger segment of three-wheeler industry

0.4% 0.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 3.0%

64.3% 63.6% 69.0% 69.4% 68.5% 66.3%

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1FY25

Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto M&M TVS GEM Others

2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 6.6% 9.5% 11.8% 8.9%

14.1% 13.3% 12.1% 0.4%

36.2% 36.9% 42.3%

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1FY25

Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto M&M TVS GEM Others

Stable agricultural output

Growth in Gig worker Economy and e-commerce Industry

CAGR: 21 % CAGR: 21-26%

FY19 FY23 FY24E FY27P

E 3W Retail sales trend (L3 & L5 category)

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

Subsegment wise Contribution within E3W Retail sales (L3 + L5 category)

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

In turn, the share of passenger segment expanded to 92% by fiscal 2024.

89% 92% 94% 92% 89%

Competitive Landscape within the E Rickshaw subsegment

69.0% 68.5% 65.2% 67.2% 71.4%

1.9% 3.6% 1.6%

68.4% 66.9% 64.4% 67.1%

2.0% 2.7% 3.8% 1.6%

Player wise contribution within Goods E Rickshaw subsegment

0.7% 1.2% 0.6%

E Auto Retail sales trend

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 H1 FY25

Competitive Landscape within the E Auto subsegment

M&M Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto GEM TVS Others

17.6% 12.2% 11.9%

M&M Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto GEM TVS Others

Player wise contribution within the E Auto Cargo subsegment

M&M Bajaj Piaggio Atul Auto GEM TVS Others

TCO for 3Ws in FY25 for four-year ownership

Annual running 30,000 km 35,000 km 40,000 km