PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation

10/8/2024

Financial Valuation Model

Ly Anh Quan (Junior Analyst)

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 PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Summary Outputs

SUMMARY VALUES - BASE CASE

Projected
(VND Billion) Trend 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 95,846.00 100,637.00 105,667.55 113,062.46 120,975.01 129,441.44
Growth 27.51% -10.69% 6.55% 5.00% 5.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
EBIT 10,374.50 17,799.61 10,870.89 11,737.28 12,179.15 12,223.00 14,396.15 17,360.45 20,164.29
Margin 13.13% 17.67% 12.09% 12.25% 12.10% 11.57% 12.73% 14.35% 15.58%
Growth 71.57% -38.93% 7.97% 3.76% 0.36% 17.78% 20.59% 16.15%
Net Income 8,851.80 7,971.80 11,606.00 9,156.21 9,495.24 9,362.08 10,844.41 12,785.50 14,496.56
Margin 11.21% 7.91% 12.90% 9.55% 9.44% 8.86% 9.59% 10.57% 11.20%
Growth -9.94% 45.59% -21.11% 3.70% -1.40% 15.83% 17.90% 13.38%

SUMMARY VALUES - BEST CASE

Projected
(VND Billion) Trend 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 99,678.80 104,661.44 109,893.21 117,583.92 125,812.97 134,618.06
Growth 27.51% -10.69% 10.81% 5.00% 5.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
EBIT 10,374.50 17,799.61 10,870.89 16,377.76 17,055.69 17,351.89 20,351.48 24,213.81 28,532.82
Margin 13.13% 17.67% 12.09% 16.43% 16.30% 15.79% 17.31% 19.25% 21.20%
Growth 71.57% -38.93% 50.66% 4.14% 1.74% 17.29% 18.98% 17.84%
Net Income 8,851.80 7,971.80 11,606.00 12,868.59 13,374.03 13,401.23 15,483.32 18,058.22 20,870.46
Margin 11.21% 7.91% 12.90% 12.91% 12.78% 12.19% 13.17% 14.35% 15.50%
Growth -9.94% 45.59% 10.88% 3.93% 0.20% 15.54% 16.63% 15.57%

SUMMARY VALUES - WORST CASE

Projected
(VND Billion) Trend 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F
Income Statement Items
Net Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 92,013.20 96,612.56 101,441.89 108,541.00 116,137.05 124,264.82
Growth 27.51% -10.69% 2.29% 5.00% 5.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
EBIT 10,374.50 17,799.61 10,870.89 7,500.64 6,432.33 5,246.90 5,969.78 6,814.76 7,804.66
Margin 13.13% 17.67% 12.09% 8.15% 6.66% 5.17% 5.50% 5.87% 6.28%
Growth 71.57% -38.93% -31.00% -14.24% -18.43% 13.78% 14.15% 14.53%
Net Income 8,851.80 7,971.80 11,606.00 5,766.90 4,918.36 3,845.75 4,239.58 4,590.14 4,996.38
Margin 11.21% 7.91% 12.90% 6.27% 5.09% 3.79% 3.91% 3.95% 4.02%
Growth -9.94% 45.59% -50.31% -14.71% -21.81% 10.24% 8.27% 8.85%

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 PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Inputs and Assumptions
GENERAL EQUITY
- First year of forecast in financial model: 2024 Stock Price (Thousand) -10/07/24 84.3
- The following scenarios included in forecast Dividend ratio - Dec. 31, -1 35%
Interest rates, Sales Annual Growth and Cost of Sales Total market value 197,514.90
Outstanding Shares (Million shares) -10/07/24 2343
Beta Equity -10/07/24 0.8
Market Risk Premium 7.74%

CAPM ASSUMPTIONS 10.24% Bearing Interest Debts

Market Weight of Equity 97.11% Debt Book Value (Billion VND)-10/07/24 5875.28
Market Weight of Debt 2.89% Coupon rate Median Method
Return on Equity 10.33% Market Interest Rates 9.68%
After Tax Cost of Debt 7.26% Risk Free Rates 4.68%
Before Tax Cost of Debt 9.68% Spread between risk free rates +5.0%
Equity Beta 0.73x Interest rate on Cash balances 1.50%

DEPRECIATION Taxes
- Depreciation Methodology Used: Straight line Tax rate assumed in the model: 25%
- Dividend ratio 35% Additional tax assumption in "Other Assumptions" box
Big 4 deposit Interest Rate
- VCB 4.60%
- BIDV 4.70%
AGR 4.70%
VTB 4.70%
Average Interest Rates 4.68%

COSTS 2024 Increse PRODUCT PRICING

Cost Item 2024 Positive with Inflation The product pricing cases used in the model are as follows:
LPG cost 35328.6 Billion Positive with Inflation Pricing Case 2024-2029
CNG cost 3112 Billion Positive with Inflation Base Case Research Forecast
Dry Gas 32609.5 Billion Positive with Inflation Best Case +4%
Consendate 791.77 Billion Positive with Inflation Worst Case (4%)
Gas&Consendate Tr 773.165 Billion Positive with Inflation Annual Production 420
Transportation 1263.77 Billion Positive with Inflation
Operating Labour 1346 Billion Positive with Inflation
Other 1524.7 Billion Positive with Inflation
SG&A 4018.6 Billion Positive with Inflation

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 PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Inputs and Assumptions
OTHER ASSUMPTIONS 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Income Statement
Cost Adjustments - Gain/ (Loss) Billion 26 26 26 26 26 26

Cash Flow Statement

Investing Activities - Other Billion 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capital Expenditure Billion 8,000 9,500 7,500 7,500 3,000 3,000

Income Tax
Reduction in EBT for timing differences Billion 0 0 0 0 0 0

Short-term investment 40347 46399 53358 61362 70566 81151

Real estate investment Billion 35 35 35 35 35 35

Working Capital Days

Accounts Receivable (days) 80 80 80 80 80 80
Inventories (days) 18 18 18 18 18 18
Prepaid Expenses (days) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Other Assets (days) 3 3 3 3 3 3
Accounts Payable (days) 72 72 72 72 72 72
Other Liabilities (days) 4 4 4 4 4 4
Long term receivable (days) 1 1 1 1 1 1

Change in Debt & Equity

Senior Term Debt Issuance / (Repayment) MM (1000) (1000) (1000) +800 +800 +800
Common Stock Issuance / (Buy-back) MM 0 0 0 0 0 0

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 PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Economic and Sales Scenarios
Projected
SCENARIO SWITCH: 3 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
Cost Inflation 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
Base Case 6.50% 5.50% 6% 6% 5.50% 6%
Best Case 5.50% 5.50% 6% 5.50% 5% 5%
Worst Case 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

SALES SCENARIOS
Sales Annual Forecast 91987 96587 101416 108515 116111 124239
Sales Forecast - VND/ Billion
Base Case 95820 100611 105642 113036 120949 129415
Best Case:+4,0% 99653 104635 109867 117558 125787 134592
Worst Case:-4,0% 91987 96587 101416 108515 116111 124239

Interest Rates 4.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.00%

Base Case 4.50% 5% 5% 5.50% 6% 7%
Best Case 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 6% 6% 6%
Worst Case 4.50% 6% 6% 6.50% 7% 7%

Sales Growth 4.50% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50%

Base Case 5.00% 5.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 4.00%
Best Case 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
Worst Case 4.50% 4.50% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.50%

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Revenue Schedule
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Sales Growth 4.50% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50%

Revenue
Gross Revenue 89,953.00 91,987.20 96,586.56 101,415.89 108,515.00 116,111.05 124,238.82
Freight & Warehousing 0 26 26 26 26 26 26
Net Revenue 89,953.00 92,013.20 96,612.56 101,441.89 108,541.00 116,137.05 124,264.82

CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO

PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Costs of Production Schedule
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Cost Inflation (%) 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%

COSTS PER UNIT

Variable Costs
LPG cost 35,328.62 37,801.62 40,447.73 43,279.07 46,308.61 49,550.21 53,018.72
CNG cost 3,112.00 3,329.84 3,562.93 3,812.33 4,079.20 4,364.74 4,670.27
Dry Gas 32,609.53 34,892.20 37,334.66 39,948.08 42,744.45 45,736.56 48,938.12
Consendate 791.77 847.19 906.50 969.95 1,037.85 1,110.50 1,188.23
Gas&Consendate Tr 773.17 827.29 885.20 947.16 1,013.46 1,084.40 1,160.31
Transportation #REF! 1,263.77 1,352.23 1,446.89 1,548.17 1,656.54 1,772.50 1,896.58
Total Variable Costs #REF! 73,878.85 79,050.37 84,583.90 90,504.77 96,840.11 103,618.91 110,872.24

Fixed Costs
Operating Labour #REF! 1,346.00 1,440.22 1,541.04 1,648.91 1,764.33 1,887.83 2,019.98
Other #REF! 1,524.66 1,631.39 1,745.58 1,867.77 1,998.52 2,138.41 2,288.10
Total Fixed Costs #REF! 2,870.66 3,071.61 3,286.62 3,516.68 3,762.85 4,026.25 4,308.09

Total Costs #REF! 76,749.51 82,121.98 87,870.52 94,021.45 100,602.96 107,645.16 115,180.33

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Income Statement
(VND Billion)
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F
Revenue
Gross Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 91,987.20 96,586.56 101,415.89 108,515.00 116,111.05 124,238.82
Freight & Warehousing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 91,987.20 96,586.56 101,415.89 108,515.00 116,111.05 124,238.82

Cost of Sales 65,006.00 79,409.00 76,749.51 82,121.98 87,870.52 94,021.45 100,602.96 107,645.16 115,180.33
S, & G & A 3,611.50 3,514.39 4,018.60 4,299.90 4,600.90 4,922.96 5,267.56 5,636.29 6,030.83
Total Costs 68,617.50 82,923.39 80,768.11 86,421.88 92,471.41 98,944.41 105,870.52 113,281.46 121,211.16

Financial Revenue 1,186.81 1,451.12 2,273.00 2,727.60 3,273.12 3,927.74 4,713.29 5,655.95 6,787.14
Financial fees 403.00 169.00 587.00 818.28 981.94 1,178.32 1,413.99 1,696.79 2,036.14
Net revenue from financial activities 783.81 1,282.12 1,686.00 1,909.32 2,291.18 2,749.42 3,299.30 3,959.17 4,751.00
Cost Adjustements - Gain/ (Loss) - - - 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 26.00
EBIT 10,374.50 17,799.61 10,870.89 7,500.64 6,432.33 5,246.90 5,969.78 6,814.76 7,804.66

Interest 304.00 336.00 339.00 292.02 284.38 439.71 670.31 1,077.09 1,559.19
EBT 11,204.00 9,978.00 14,619.00 7,208.62 6,147.95 4,807.19 5,299.47 5,737.67 6,245.47

Current Income Taxes 2,304.00 2,037.00 2,812.00 1,441.72 1,229.59 961.44 1,059.89 1,147.53 1,249.09
Deferred Income Taxes 48.91 - 31.05 33.85 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Income Taxes 1,441.72 1,229.59 961.44 1,059.89 1,147.53 1,249.09

Net Income 8,851.80 7,971.80 11,606.00 5,766.90 4,918.36 3,845.75 4,239.58 4,590.14 4,996.38

Margins
Net profit margin 6.27% 5.09% 3.79% 3.91% 3.95% 4.02%
EBIT Margin 8.15% 6.66% 5.17% 5.50% 5.87% 6.28%
Return on Equity 7.22% 4.33% 2.69% 2.39% 2.24% 2.13%

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Cash Flow Statement
(VND Billion)
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F
Operating Activities
Net income 5766.9 4918.4 3845.8 4239.6 4590.1 4996.4
Depreciation & Amortization 3750.0 4300.0 4975.0 5825.0 6125.0 6650.0
Deferred Income Taxes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Changes in working capital 8432.3 103.9 60.9 601.8 617.0 715.9
Operating Cash Flow 17949.2 9322.2 8881.6 10666.4 11332.2 12362.3

Investing Activities
CAPEX 8000.00 9500.00 7500.00 7500.00 3000.00 3000.00
Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Investing Cash Flow 8000.00 9500.00 7500.00 7500.00 3000.00 3000.00

Financing Activities
Revolver Issuance/ (Repayment) (1604.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Team Debt Issuance/ (Repayment) (1000.0) (1000.0) (1000.0) 800.0 800.0 800.0
Common Shares Issuance 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Common Dividends 2018.4 1721.4 1346.0 1483.9 1606.5 1748.7
Financing Cash Flow (586.4) 721.4 346.0 2283.9 2406.5 2548.7

Changes in the cash position 0 0 0 25,362.86 19543.67716 16727.65033 20450.22932 16738.71236 17910.99744
Beginning Cash - - - +25,363 +44,907 +61,634 +82,084 +98,823
Ending Cash 0 0 0 25362.85604 44906.5332 61634.18353 82084.41285 98823.12521 116734.1226

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Balance Sheet
(VND Billion)
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

ASSETS
Cash and equivalent cash 5,300.33 10,549.34 5,668.90 25,362.86 44,906.53 61,634.18 82,084.41 98,823.13 116,734.12
Cash 1,395.85 1,318.14 1,156.47 7,608.86 13,471.96 18,490.26 24,625.32 29,646.94 35,020.24
Short-term investment 24,799.83 23,726.00 35,084.64 40,346.60 46,398.59 53,358.38 61,362.14 70,566.46 81,151.42
Account receivable 16,920.20 16,191.00 16,865.00 20,106.49 21,169.66 22,228.14 23,784.11 25,379.46 27,230.43
Customers receivable 10,598.40 9,210.00 12,541.00 12,063.90 12,701.79 13,336.88 14,270.47 15,227.68 16,338.26
Inventory 3,241.22 4,102.44 3,944.54 4,523.96 4,763.17 5,001.33 5,351.42 5,710.38 6,126.85
Other 1,133.16 1,082.30 654.35 753.99 793.86 833.56 891.90 951.73 1,021.14
Prepaid expense 70.00 83.67 60.63 100.53 105.85 111.14 118.92 126.90 136.15
Total Current Assets 51,394.73 55,651.08 62,217.43 91,093.90 118,031.82 143,055.59 173,473.99 201,431.15 232,263.96

Long account receivable 187.72 168.69 318.10 318.10 318.10 318.10 318.10 318.10 318.10
Net PP&E 18,098.00 16,369.00 19,532.00 27,532.00 37,032.00 44,532.00 52,032.00 55,032.00 58,032.00
Real estate investment 21.93 36.27 31.73 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00 35.00
Work-in-progress 4,871.00 5,978.00 1,780.00 1,860.10 1,943.80 2,021.56 2,102.42 2,186.52 2,263.04
Long-term investment 400.61 405.53 398.01 415.92 434.64 452.02 470.10 488.91 506.02
Other 3,794.00 4,052.00 3,475.00 3,475.00 3,475.00 3,475.00 3,475.00 3,475.00 3,475.00
Total Long Term Assets 27,373.26 27,009.49 25,534.84 33,636.12 43,238.55 50,833.68 58,432.63 61,535.53 64,629.17

Total Assets 78,768.00 82,660.57 87,752.27 124,730.03 161,270.36 193,889.27 231,906.61 262,966.68 296,893.13

LIABILITIES AND EQUITY

Account Payable
Other liabilties 1,470.00 836.00 624.00 897.51 962.96 1,030.37 1,102.50 1,176.45 1,262.25
Short-term payable 16,561.00 12,487.96 14,971.95 16,155.14 17,333.36 18,546.70 19,844.97 21,176.10 22,720.50
Short-term bearing interest payable 484.00 45.00 1,604.78 9,693.09 10,400.02 11,128.02 11,906.98 12,705.66 13,632.30
Total Current Liabilities 16,561.00 12,487.96 14,971.95 26,745.74 28,696.34 30,705.09 32,854.45 35,058.21 37,615.05

Long-term payable 10,014.00 9,001.13 7,483.89 18,095.84 19,052.69 20,005.33 21,405.70 22,841.52 24,507.38
Long-term interest payable 7,510.00 6,037.96 4,270.50 15,381.47 16,194.79 17,004.53 18,194.84 19,415.29 20,831.28
Total Long Term Liabilties 10,014.00 9,001.13 7,483.89 18,095.84 19,052.69 20,005.33 21,405.70 22,841.52 24,507.38

Total Liabilties 26,575.00 21,489.09 22,455.83 44,841.58 47,749.04 50,710.41 54,260.14 57,899.72 62,122.44

Equity 52,192.73 61,173.56 65,298.62 79,888.45 113,521.32 143,178.86 177,646.47 205,066.96 234,770.69
Shareholder's Equity 52,192.73 61,173.56 65,298.62 79,888.45 113,521.32 143,178.86 177,646.47 205,066.96 234,770.69

Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 78,767.73 82,662.65 87,754.45 124,730.03 161,270.36 193,889.27 231,906.61 262,966.68 296,893.13

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Depreciation Schedule
(VND Billion)
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Depreciation of new assets 10

Depreciation to Existing Assets 9 2950 2950 2950 2950 2950 2950

CAPEX
2025F 8,000.00 800.00 400.00 800.00 800.00 800.00 800.00
2026F 9,500.00 950.00 475.00 950.00 950.00 950.00
2027F 7,500.00 750.00 375.00 750.00 750.00
2028F 7,500.00 750.00 375.00 750.00
2029F 3,000.00 300.00 150.00
2030F 3,000.00 300.00

Total Depreciation 3,750.0 4,300.0 4,975.0 5,825.0 6,125.0 6,650.0

*Mid-year-convention

CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO

PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Working Capital Schedules
(VND Billion)
Projected
2021A 2022A 2023A 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Days per year (days) 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365

Income Statement Items

Net Revenue 78,992.00 100,723.00 89,953.00 91,987.20 96,586.56 101,415.89 108,515.00 116,111.05 124,238.82
Cost of Sales 65,006.00 79,409.00 76,749.51 82,121.98 87,870.52 94,021.45 100,602.96 107,645.16 115,180.33

Account Balances
Accounts Receivable (days) 78.18 58.67 68.43 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Inventories (days) 17.24 18.06 17.83 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00 18.00
Prepaid rec (days) 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
Other Assets (days) 5.24 3.92 2.66 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Accounts Payable (days) 92.99 57.40 71.20 72.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 72.00 72.00
Other Liabilities (days) 8.25 3.84 2.97 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Long term receivable 46.27 32.62 30.37 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Account Balances
Accounts Receivable (VND/ Billion) 20,106.49 21,169.66 22,228.14 23,784.11 25,379.46 27,230.43
Inventories (VND/ Billion) 4,523.96 4,763.17 5,001.33 5,351.42 5,710.38 6,126.85
Prepaid expenses (VND/ Billion) 100.53 105.85 111.14 118.92 126.90 136.15
Other Assets (VND/ Billion) 753.99 793.86 833.56 891.90 951.73 1,021.14
Long-term receivable (VND/ Billion) 18,095.84 19,052.69 20,005.33 21,405.70 22,841.52 24,507.38
Accounts Payable (VND/ Billion) 16,155.14 17,333.36 18,546.70 19,844.97 21,176.10 22,720.50
Other Liabilities (VND/ Billion) 897.51 962.96 1,030.37 1,102.50 1,176.45 1,262.25
Net Working Capital (VND/ Billion) 0 8432 8536 8597 9199 9816 10532

Change in Working Capital (VND/ Billion) 8432 104 61 602 617 716

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Debt and Interest Schedule
Projected
2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A 2028A 2029A
FINANCING COMPONENT
Cash
Amount Outstanding - Beginning 1,156.47 8,765.33 22,237.29 40,727.54 65,352.87 94,999.80
Change in Cash 7,608.86 13,471.96 18,490.26 24,625.32 29,646.94 35,020.24
Amount Outstanding - Ending 1,156.47 8,765.33 22,237.29 40,727.54 65,352.87 94,999.80 130,020.04

Interest Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

Annual Interest Income 17.35 131.48 333.56 610.91 980.29 1,425.00

Revolver
Operating Cash Flow 17,949.22 9,322.25 8,881.64 10,666.38 11,332.16 12,362.27
Investing Cash Flow (8000) (9500) (7500) (7500) (3000) (3000)
Mandotory Debt Repayments (1000) (1000) (1000) +800 +800 +800
Common Stock Issuance/ (Buy-back) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends (2018) (1721) (1346) (1484) (1607) (1749)
FCF After Mandatory Debt Repayment 6930.8 (2899.2) (964.4) 2482.5 7525.6 8413.5
and Dividend

Revolver Outstanding - Beginning 1605 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Addition/ (Repayments) (1605) 0 0 0 0 0
Revolver Outstanding - Ending 1,604.78 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest Rate 4.68% 4.68% 4.68% 4.68% 4.68% 4.68%

Annual Interest Expense 75.02 - - - - -

Senior Secured Term Debt

Amount Outstanding - Beginning 4,270.50 3,270.50 2,270.50 1,270.50 2,070.50 2,870.50
Additions/ (Repayments) (1000) (1000) (1000) +800 +800 +800
Amount Outstanding - Ending 4,270.50 3,270.50 2,270.50 1,270.50 2,070.50 2,870.50 3,670.50

Interest 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Annual Interest Expense 199.65 152.90 106.15 59.40 96.80 134.20

Net Interest Expense 292.02 284.38 439.71 670.31 1,077.09 1,559.19

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 CURRENT PRESENTING: WORST CASE SCENARIO
PetroVietnam Gas Joint Stock Corporation
Free Cash Flow Firm Valuation and Rating
Projected
2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F

Future Cash Flows

Net income 5,766.90 4,918.36 3,845.75 4,239.58 4,590.14 4,996.38
Non-Cash Charges 3,750.00 4,300.00 4,975.00 5,825.00 6,125.00 6,650.00
Deductible Interest Expense 262.81 255.94 395.73 603.28 969.38 1,403.27
Capital Expenditure 8,000.00 9,500.00 7,500.00 7,500.00 3,000.00 3,000.00

Future cash flow 1,961.89 - 21.15 1,281.34 2,145.18 5,334.79 5,600.12

Total present value of cash flows 16,302.17

Horizontal cash flow 77,386.61
Less: Market debt value - 6,000.00

Total enterprise value 87,688.79

Outstanding shares 2,343.00

Instrinsic value per share 37.43

Market value (05/08/2024) 76.00

RATING FOR INVESTORS SOLD

TIME HORIZON OF HOLDING > 1 YEARS

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