Definition of probability of an Event.

(Axioms of Probability)

The Probability of an event A is the sum of the Probabilities of all the sample points in A.
Therefore,

1. 0< P(A) < 1,

2. P(Ø) = 0 and

3. P (S) = 1

Where A is an event, Ø is a null set and S is the sample space.

Example: Two coins are tossed once, what is the Probability that at least one head occurs.

Solution:

The sample space of this experiment is given by S = {H H, HT, TH, TT} and each sample
point has a probability of ¼

Let A be the event that at least one head occurs. Then A = {HH, HT, TH}

 P (A) = ¼ + ¼ + ¼ = ¾ from the definition.

2.2 THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY

THEOREM I (CLASSICAL PROBABILITY)

If an experiment can result in any one of the N different equally likely outcomes and if
exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to the event A, then the Probability of A is given
n
by: P( A) = .
N

Number of favourable cases

P( A) =
Total number of mutually exclusive and equally likely cases

Example 1: If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck, find the Probability that it is a heart.

Solution:

There are 52 cards in a deck i.e. N = 52 and of these 52, only 13 are hearts, i.e. n = 13.
let A be the event that the cards is a heart.

Then from theorem I,

 n 13 1
P( A) = = =
N 52 4

Example 2:

A student has 6 tom-tom, 4 butter mint and 3 chocolates in his pocket. If the student
picks one of the sweets at random, find the Probability of the student getting
(i) Tom-tom
(ii) A Butter Mint or Chocolate

Solution:

There are 13 sweets in all i.e. N = 13

(i) 6 of these sweets are tom-tom here n = 6
n 6
Therefore, if A is the event of getting a tom-tom, P( A) = =
N 13
(ii) Let B be the event of getting Butter Mint and C the event of getting Chocolate,
4 3
Then P( B) = , P(C ) =
13 13
4 3 7
Therefore P (B or C) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) = + =
13 13 13

Note that the two events here are mutually exclusive.

Example 3: three coins are tossed, find the probability of getting at least 2 heads.

Solution: there are eight possibilities: HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, THT, TTH, HTT, TTT
Out of these possibilities, the required possibilities are four. Hence the required probability
is given by
Number of favourable cases
P( A) =
Total number of mutually exclusive and equally likely cases
4 1
P( A) = =
8 2

Example 4: what is the probability that if a card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of
cards, it is: (i) a red card, (ii) a club, (iii) one of the count cards (jack or queen or king)
Solution: number of exhaustive cases = 52
(i) There are 26 red cards and 26 black cards in an ordinary pack
Hence favourable cases = 26 (number of red cards)
 26 1
Probability of getting a red card = =
52 2

(ii) Number of clubs in a pack = 13 Favourable cases = 13

13 1
Probability of getting a club = =
52 4
(iii) There are 4  3 = 12 court cards in a pack of cards
Number of favourable cases = 12
Number of exhaustive cases = 52
12 3
Probability of getting a count card = =
52 13

THEOREM II (ADDITIVE RULE)

If A and B are any two events then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

COROLLARY I: If the two events in theorem II above (A and B) are mutually exclusive,
then P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B).

COROLLARY II: If A1, A2 , …, AN are mutually exclusive, then P(A1 U A2 U …U AN) =

P(A1) + P(A2) + … + P(AN).

2
Example: The probability that a Student passes his statistics course is and the
3
4 1
probability that he passes his English is . If probability of passing both courses is ,
9 4
what is the probability that he will pass at least one of these courses?

Solution: Let A be the event of passing Statistics and B be the event of Passing English.

2 4 1
Given that, P( A) = , P( B) = and Probability of passing both course P( A  B) =
3 9 4

To find the Probability of Passing at least one of the courses i.e. P (AUB), we use the
additive rule

Therefore,

P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

 2 4 1 10 1
= + − = −
3 9 4 9 4

40 − 9 31
= =
36 36

Example 2: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair dice

are tossed?

Solution: When a pair of dice is tossed, the sample space is given by

(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

S= (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

(4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

(5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)

Let A be the event of getting a total 7 and B the event of getting a total of 11,
then;

A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), 4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}

B = {(5,6), (6,5)}

6 2
Therefore, P( A) = and P( B) =
36 36

To find P(A or B) = P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

Here the two events are mutually exclusive, P(A∩B) = 0

P( A  B) = P( A) + P( B)

6 2 8 2
= + = =
36 36 36 9
Example 3: find the probability of drawing a card from a well shuffled pack such that the
drawn card is either a king or queen.

Solution.

The events that the card is either a king or queen are mutually exclusive events. Let the
events of the king card drawn be denoted by A and the queen card drawn be denoted by
B. A pack containing 52 cards will have 4 kings and 4 queens.

Hence,

4 4
P( A) = and P( B) =
52 52
4 4 2
P( A + B) = P( A) + P( B) = + =
52 52 13

Example 4: if the probability of the horse A winning the race is 1 and the probability of the horse
5
B winning the same race is 1 , what is the probability that one of the horses will win the race?
6

Solution
1
Probability of winning of the horse A =
5
1
Probability of winning of the horse B =
6
1 1 11
P( A + B) = P( A) + P ( B ) = + =
5 6 30

THEOREM III (Complementary Rule)

If A and Ac are complementary events, then

P(A) + P(Ac) = 1

Example: Two coins are tossed once. What is the probability that at least one head
occurs?

Solutions:

S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}

Let A be the event that at least one head occurs

P(At least one head) = 1 – P(no head)

and P(no head) = ¼

Therefore, P(at least one head) = 1 – ¼ = ¾

i.e. P(A) = 1 – P(Ac)

where A= {HH, HT, TH} and Ac = {TT}

3.1 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

If A and B are any two events in a sample space and P(A) ≠ 0. The probability of an
event B occurring when it is known that an event A has occurred is called conditional
probability and is denoted by P(B/A).

The symbol P(B/A) is usually read as “the probability that B occurs given that A occurs or
Simply the probability of B given A”

Definition of conditional probability

The conditional probability of B given A denoted by P(B/A) is defined by the equation

P( A  B)
P( B / A) = , where P(A) > 0
P( A)

Also,

P( A  B)
P( A / B) = , where P(B) > 0
P( B)
Example 1: A manufacturer of air plane parts knows from past experience that the
probability is 0.80 that an order will be ready for shipment on time, and it is 0ּ72 that an
order will be ready for shipment on time and will also be delivered on time. What is the
probability that such an order will be delivered on time given that it was ready for
shipment on time?
Solution: Let A be the event that an order is ready for shipment on time and B the
event that it is delivered on time. Given that P(A) = 0ּ80 and P(A∩B) = 0ּ72. We
are required to find P(B/A)
P( A  B ) 0  72
P ( B / A) = = = 0  90
P ( A) 0  80
3.2 Multiplication Rule:
The formula for conditional probability can be manipulated algebraically so that the
joint probability (A and B) can be determined from the conditional probability of an
event from the formula for conditional probability we have

P ( A and B)
P( A / B) =
P( B)
Solving for the joint probability (A and B), we have the general multiplication rule:
P(A and B) = P(A/B) P(B)
Example: A product must be approved by three experts in the quality control
department of a manufacturing firm before the product is considered acceptable. The
probability that a defective product is approved by the first expert is 0 ּ02. Given that
a defective product is approved by the first expert, the probability that it is also
approved by the second expert is 0ּ30. The probability that it is also approved by the
third expert assuming approval by the first two experts is 0ּ35. What is the probability
that a defective product is erroneously accepted?

Solution
Let A be the event that a defective product is approved by the first expert, B the event
that it is approved by the second expert and C the event that it is approved by the
third expert. Then the required probability is:
P(A∩B∩C) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/AB)
= (0ּ02) (0ּ30) (0ּ35)
= 0ּ002

Example 2: A box contains 20 fuses of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected
at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what
is the probability that both fuses are defective?

Solution:
Let A be the event that the first fuse is defective.
Let B be the event that the second fuse is defective.
 Then, A∩B is the event that A occurs and then B occurs after A has occurred.

5 1
Now, P( A) = =
20 4

4
P( B / A) =
19

Therefore, P(A∩B) = P(A) P(A/B)

1 4 1
 = .
4 19 19

The definition of the multiplication rule can be generalized as follows:

If in an experiment A1, A2, ,A3 … can occur, then
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ∩ …) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) P(A3/A1∩ A2 )…

3.3 Probability of Independent Events

The events A and B are independent if and only if
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)

Example: A pair of dice is thrown twice what is the probability of getting totals of
7 and 11.

Solution:
Let A1 be the independent event that a 7 occurs on the first throw
A2 be the independent event that a 7 occurs on the second throw
B1 be the independent event that an 11 occurs on the first throw.
B2 be the independent event that an 11 occur on the second throw
We are interested in the probability of the union of the mutually exclusive events
A1∩B2 and B1nA2
Therefore, P(A1∩B2) U (B1∩A2) = P(A1∩B2) + P(B1∩A2)
 = P(A1) P(B2) + P(B1) P(A2)
1 1 1 1 1
=  +  =
6 18 18 6 54

5.0 SUMMARY

The probability of an event A is the sum of the probabilities of all the sample points
in A. If an experiment can result in any one of the N different equally likely
outcomes and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to the event A, then the
probability of A is given by:
n
P( A) =
N
The conditional probability of B given A denoted by P(B/A) is defined by

P( A  B)
P( B / A) = , where P(A) > 0
P( A)

6.0 EXERCISES
(1) Define the followings
(i) Multiplication rule
(ii) Probability of independent events

(2) A town has two machine plants operating independently. The probability
that a specific fire engine is available when needed is 0ּ99
(a) What is the probability that neither is available when needed.
(b) What is the probability that a plant is available when needed.

(2) The probability that a married man watches a certain television show is 0ּ4
and the probability that a married woman watches the show is 0 ּ5. The
probability that a man watches the show given that his wife does is 0ּ7. find
the probability that:
(a) a married couple watches the show
(b) a wife watches the show given that husband does.
(c) At least 1 person of a married couple will watch the show.