MSA 2 Winter Ans
MSA 2 Winter Ans
MSA 2 Winter Ans
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Multi Subject Assessments – Winter 2021
Financial performance
Revenues in the year ended 31 October 2021 (2021) were 32.4% below those of the
last pre pandemic year, the year ended 31 October 2019 (2019). Clearly this was
due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with restrictions on the number of
diners, and lockdowns during certain periods, which did not happen in 2019. Uncle
Azad has shown some flexibility in offering takeaway food, presumably during
periods where the restaurants were forced to close, and this has reduced the 40%
decrease in food and beverages. This action would also have pleased the regular
customers, which may lead to customer loyalty in the future. Whether this drop in
revenue is normal for restaurants in Karachi is difficult to ascertain without
information about how the industry as a whole was impacted by the coronavirus
pandemic.
In terms of business mix, the share of revenue from beverages fell from 36.4% in
2019 to 32.3% in 2021, presumably because people buying takeaway food did not
buy beverages. This has an impact on margins, as beverages have a much higher
profit margin than food (81% for beverages in 2021 compared to 65% for food). In
spite of this, overall margins only fell by 1%, as there appears to have been a slight
increase in the gross profit margin on food. The improvement in the margin on
food may be related to the fact that, during periods of lockdown, the company only
offered a limited menu, and this may have led to less food wastage.
Managers' salaries rose by 10% between 2019 and 2021. This is below the 20% level
of inflation. Presumably, managers were asked to accept a lower pay rise due to the
impact of the pandemic. While such a move may have been sensible from a
financial perspective, it may have caused some resentment among the three
managers. Indeed, one of the managers has actually been stealing − this may have
been influenced to some extent by the poor pay rise.
Staff costs have fallen by 29% between the two years. It is likely that staff have been
working fewer hours due to lockdown and there may have been a reduction in
headcount. While this could lead to resentment among staff, the hospitality
industry does tend to have high staff turnover anyway, so this should have no long-
term impact. The reduction in staff costs did not match the reduction in revenue of
42% so contributed to the fall in the net profit margin. Clearly, it was difficult to
estimate exactly how much revenues would fall by and, therefore, how much staff
numbers should be reduced.
Maintenance expenditure has increased by 50%. This may be due to the restaurants
requiring more maintenance as they become older, or it may be that the company
decided to do additional maintenance during the year while business was quiet.
Depreciation rose by 6% which is less than inflation. Depreciation is generally an
expense which relates to investment decisions made in earlier periods so, from the
perspective of evaluating the performance of the company, they do not reflect the
current year so much.
Profit after tax fell by 52% between 2019 and 2021 ((Rs. 2,350,171÷ Rs. 4,866,323)
−1). This is more than the 32.4% fall in revenues. The reason is that many of the
costs of the restaurants such as the manager's salary and depreciation are fixed, so a
fall in revenue has a larger impact on the profits.
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Non-financial performance
While no specific non-financial performance indicators have been provided, it is
possible to ascertain some facts from the reviews on the 'Traveller's Choice' website.
It should be recognised that only a small portion of guests bother to write reviews,
so their opinions are not necessarily representative of all guests.
An average rating of 3.5 out of 5 does not sound like guests are exceptionally
pleased with the restaurant. While no comparatives for other restaurants have been
given, it does not seem unreasonable to assume that a restaurant that consistently
pleases its guests would be likely to score above 4.
Being a service industry, it is not always clear what guests expect when they visit
the restaurant, which explains the variety of scores given by the three guests whose
reviews have been provided. All guests do mention that the quality of the food was
excellent, so this is clearly a strength of the business. Two of the guests also
appreciate the friendly service and enjoy the live music, which suggests that the
restaurant provides a welcoming, fun experience.
The business visitor was not impressed with the service, and found the music too
loud. While this can be taken as a negative point, it may simply be because Uncle
Azad is not providing the type of service that business visitors want. No restaurant
can please all types of guests, and it is more important that Uncle Azad recognises
what type of customer it wishes to appeal to, which is why Yasmin's suggestion
that the company considers a more focused approach to marketing is correct.
Conclusion
Clearly, the coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on the revenues of
the business, and this has led to a 52% fall in profit after tax. However, given the
exceptional circumstances, this would not be expected to be a typical year, and
hopefully when things return to normal after the pandemic, the restaurant will be
able to achieve a higher level of profits.
In terms of quality of service, customers like the food and friendly atmosphere of
the restaurants but business customers do not find the restaurants to be smart
enough.
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Business mix
Food 56.4% 63.6%
Takeaway food 11.3% 0.0%
Beverages 32.3% 36.4%
Beverages:
Revenue 4,380,836 7,301,393
Cost of sales (832,359) (1,314,251)
Gross profit 3,548,477 5,987,142
Gross profit margin beverages 81% 82%
Overall
Revenue 13,560,550 20,050,997
Gross profit 9,515,292 14,146,889
Gross profit margin 70% 71%
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Omar, as the founder of the company, is happy that the restaurant provides a
comfortable income for the family in terms of a dividend and as Omar has said,
enables him to have fun. While this may not appear ambitious, this attitude may
reflect Omar's age and desire for an easier life. He may also not wish to take on the
risks that aiming for growth would require in terms of further investment.
Growth would also be potentially beneficial for the staff of Uncle Azad. Opening
new restaurants may offer opportunities for promotion as new restaurants will need
managers and chefs. A larger business will also require a larger central head office,
providing new employment opportunities.
It is clear that Omar and Yasmin have different objectives, and it is important that
they work together to agree the objectives of the business now, since
misunderstandings may lead to resentment. A compromise may be possible – such
as allowing the business to aim for growth, but limiting Omar's role to managing
the original restaurant.
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Having a more focused approach may help to drive cost efficiencies at the
restaurants. Rather than buying in a wide variety of foods to suit all tastes for
example, the restaurants may be able to narrow the selection, leading to lower
food waste costs.
The focused approach may also mean that customers who are not within the
target segments would not like the changes to the offering. However, these
segments may already be unhappy with the offering as Arish from Dubai
demonstrates. Hopefully, the loss of customers outside the targets is likely to
be less than the increase in customers from the target.
Individuals from higher social classes will generally expect a high quality of
food and a high level of customer service, and will be happy to pay higher
prices. As income levels fall, customers will expect lower prices and more
value for money, but may be less conservative in their tastes for décor and
ambience.
The reason for dining out will also impact on what customers want. If people
primarily visit the restaurant for social gatherings, they will expect a different
experience from people visiting for business purposes. Factors such as the
music (live or recorded), the volume of the music, the décor of the restaurant
and the nature of service would need to be considered. Uncle Azad would
need to be aware which of these factors would appeal most to their target
segments.
Finally, the location of visitors will affect Uncle Azad strategy. The
restaurants may want to aim for people living in the local area only for
example, as opposed to attracting visitors from a wider area and possibly
tourists visiting Pakistan.
Page 5 of 16
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In terms of reasons for dining out, the restaurant did not appeal to the
business traveller. Trying to change the restaurants to focus on this segment
may not be feasible, so business visitors may well be eliminated. The
restaurants could therefore focus on visitors who wish to come for social
gatherings or family celebrations.
In order to gain sufficient customers to pay higher prices for the quality food,
the restaurants should also focus on visitors from a wider geographical area,
who are prepared to travel for a good meal. It could also continue to aim for
wealthy tourists, who wish to experience genuine local food.
The advantage of venture capital is that being a source of equity, there is no legal
requirement to pay interest charges which might be the case for other types of
finance. There is, therefore, less financial risk to the business.
Venture capital also complies with Sharia law as it is consistent with the Mudaraba
model whereby the risks and rewards are shared by the investor and the
entrepreneur, and it does not involve the payment of interest, unlike debt finance.
Another advantage is that the venture capitalist would have experience of working
with many other small companies. It would therefore be able to provide expertise
and advice that could help Uncle Azad in a number of areas, such as marketing.
The venture capital organisation would typically become a shareholder, and this
would dilute the shareholdings of the Chaudury family. The venture capital
company would also usually require representation on the Board of Directors of
Uncle Azad which would mean that they would have a potentially significant
influence over the strategic and operational decisions made by the company. The
existing directors and shareholders may not like having to gain consensus for
decisions that previously they would have been able to make independently.
The venture capital company would also be looking to sell their investment,
typically within five to seven years. One common way of achieving this is by listing
the company on a stock market. This would mean that over the longer term, Uncle
Azad would become a listed company and would be required to comply with all
the additional regulations that apply to such companies, such as additional
financial reporting disclosures and compliance with corporate governance
regulations. Even if the Chaudury family maintain control over the business, there
will be much more information about the company disclosed to the public.
It should be noted that there is no guarantee that a venture capitalist can be found
who would be willing to invest in Uncle Azad. It would be necessary to persuade
potential investors of the strengths of the current business and, in particular, the
potential for growth. It will be necessary to persuade them that Uncle Azad has
some competitive advantage that would enable it to succeed in new locations.
Page 6 of 16
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From an ethical perspective, Omar must be transparent about this and inform the
other partners, including Yasmin, as this is a serious issue. If Omar tries to disguise
this, that would be unfair on the other partners, who have also been affected by the
theft.
In terms of the decision as to how to deal with Asif, it is important to consider the
impact of the decision on the other staff. Omar mentioned in his discussion with
Asif that business policy is immediate dismissal and prosecution for all acts of theft.
It is probable that the staff are aware of Asif's actions and may be aware that he has
been caught. If Omar does not dismiss and prosecute Asif, it would send the
message that the business is not serious about the policy. Potentially, this could
cause other staff to believe that theft will go unpunished.
On the issue of fairness, staff may also consider it unfair if Asif is not punished in
accordance with policy for his acts. Many of the staff are likely to be honest, and
probably dislike the actions of their boss, but feel they cannot do anything about it.
Now that he has been caught, they would expect him to be punished. If he is not,
they may consider that to be unfair. This could be seriously demotivating and
damaging to the business culture.
Keeping Asif employed as a manager would be a big risk in terms of trust. He has
already breached the trust placed in him by the directors of Uncle Azad and there is
no guarantee that he would not do so again, were he to be kept employed.
While Asif does have a family to support, he himself is to blame for risking the
consequences of his actions, and Omar should not feel he has any duty to protect
Asif from losing his job or from prosecution. If he really is a friend of Omar, Asif
could have approached Omar for financial help, rather than stealing from him.
Assets acquired by the company shall be treated as having the same character as
before the transfer. When a transfer of assets takes place, the cost in the hands of the
company will be:
In the case of depreciable assets or intangible assets that are amortised, the
written down value immediately before the disposal
In the case of stock-in-trade, at the value taken for tax purpose under section
35(4)
In other cases, the transferor's cost at the time of disposal
In the hands of the transferor, the cost of share(s) received will be calculated as the
transferor's cost (reduced by any liability that the company may undertake) divided
by the number of share(s).
The tax rate would be applicable that of a company as per ITO, 2001.
All the other income of the shareholders will be charged in accordance with the
relevant provisions of the Income Tax Ordinance, 2001.
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Note: The KHE bond was issued two years ago, hence eight years left to run.
10% DF 10% PV 5% DF 5% PV
T0 Market price (9460.00) 1.000 (9460.00) 1.000 (9460.00)
T1-8 Interest 800.00 5.335 4268.00 6.463 5170.40
T8 Redemption 10450.00 0.467 4880.15 0.677 7074.65
(311.85) 2785.05
Therefore the required yield on SGS debt, adjusting for the credit spread difference
of 150 points = 9.5% − 1.5% = 8%
*The debt is redeemable at a 10% discount; hence the redemption value is Rs.
10,000 × 90% = Rs. 9,000
Recommendation
A divisional structure is recommended, with a manufacturing and a gas extraction
divisions being the two main divisions.
Some functions may benefit from a shared service centre approach such as Finance,
IT and Human Resources.
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Geographical focus
Manufacturing will remain in Shikarpur, with gas extraction taking place on
the land bank. A divisional structure will enable management to directly
monitor operations under their control.
Motivation – managers
Divisional managers can be financially incentivised to optimise the
performance of their own divisions. This will be particularly important for the
extraction business as it is new, and reasonably speculative.
Motivation – workers
Targets and bonuses can be set to reflect divisional rather than group
performance, incentivising a divisional orientation amongst staff.
Speed of decisions
Decisions can be made locally with speed, that reflect local requirements.
This should hopefully minimise any bureaucracy within each business unit.
Page 10 of 16
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Inexperienced management:
Change management skills are lacking in the management team given the long,
stable history of the current manufacturing site. They may require training or
externally sourced support.
Relocation:
Many workers face relocation to a remote area, so are likely to need significant
assistance to find suitable premises and help settling in.
Lack of diversity:
Most workers come from a similar background. A diverse workforce tends to be
more resilient to change given that different perspectives are naturally shared
amongst change subjects. As this is not the case for SGS, any issues are likely to
become intensified.
Environmental concerns:
Extraction process could raise concerns in terms of pollute water supplies and can
cause serious tremors. Close monitoring would be needed to avoid any unwelcome
environmental side-effects arising from extraction process.
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Working
The T4 cashflows onwards are a constantly growing perpetuity, growing at a rate of
14% per year at a cost of equity of 20% per year.
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Summary values
Rs. in million
Assets based 280.44
Cash flow based 342.03
Earnings based 292.80
Bidding strategy:
The Malik family is unlikely to accept less than the asset based value of the
business, albeit this also includes a calculated intangible value.
Option to delay:
The Malik family have granted a period of exclusivity to KAM, giving them time to
consider the acquisition without fear of losing it. This adds value as it gives time to
further consider the option, research alternatives, research MLL itself and
potentially, to wait until demand in the auto parts industry recovers. Changes to
industry tax incentives may also be clarified in this period.
Option to abandon:
The business is profitable and could be sold on or otherwise profitably divested in
the future.
These options all add to the value of the business, making the decision to purchase
firmer and/or presenting the possibility of increasing the purchase price if
necessary.
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It should be noted that foreign exchange hedging can reduce short-term risk, but it
cannot reverse underlying trends in the market. The hedged rates will reflect the
continuing downwards trend, albeit this trend may well reverse at some point in the
future.
A better alternative for these purchases may be to acquire rupee put options from
an exchange. Although premiums will be costly, KAM will maintain access to
upside potential and, importantly, KAM can let some options lapse if purchases are
lower than expected. American style options can be exercised over a period of time,
giving KAM the time flexibility it needs.
The options suggestion assumes that the exchange-traded options exist for the
currencies KAM needs. If not, they can often be synthesised by simultaneously
acquiring two options, but this is probably beyond KAM's current treasury
capability at the moment, and is also costly. Equally, an option 'collar' could be
used in the future to mitigate the put option premium, but this is for future
consideration.
Summary:
If the put option premiums are very high, KAM could consider approaching
suppliers again for Rupee invoices and accept a higher price, albeit this may have a
knock on effect on KAM's sales prices.
(THE END)
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