World Agricultural Production: Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 01-12 January 2012
World Agricultural Production: Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 01-12 January 2012
World Agricultural Production: Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 01-12 January 2012
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 01-12
January 2012
World Agricultural
Production
Above-average rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil.
However, below-average rainfall in the south during December reduced potential yields,
especially in regions that were planted early where crop stage was in the critical flowering and
pod-filling stages during Decembers drought.
Harvesting started this month in Parana, the second-largest soybean producing state, which
reported below-average yields in the early-planted regions located in the western and
southwestern portions of the state. DERAL, the state crop estimating agency for Parana, also
reduced their soybean production forecast this month by 1.4 million tons (from 14.1 to 12.7 MT)
due to Decembers drought and low reported harvested yields in western Parana.
In contrast, seasonal rainfall was beneficial in central and northeastern parts of Brazil. Mato
Grosso, the largest soybean producing state in the central west, is expecting a record soybean
harvest of 22.2 million tons and above last years record crop of 20.4 million tons. (For more
information, contact Curt Reynolds, PhD, at 202-690-0134.)
2
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
for crop growth and development. The ideal planting conditions, high domestic prices, and
anticipated export demand encouraged record cotton plantings in the major growing areas of
Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh. But in some areas, especially Maharashtra,
observers are concerned about possible yield reductions caused by below-normal rainfall at the
beginning of the planting season and limited irrigation supplies in the areas that typically rely on
supplemental irrigation.
Seed cotton arrivals from November through early January are averaging 25 percent lower than
last year. The largest shortfalls, at approximately 40 percent less than the same time last year,
are in Maharashtra, the state that contributes about 20 percent of national production. The
delayed start to the harvest campaign and farmer holding (anticipating higher prices) are the
primary suspects for the low arrivals, but lower yields may be a significant contributing factor as
well. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)
Argentina Corn: December Dryness Threatens Production Prospects
The USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2011/2012 at 26.0 million tons, down 3.0
million from last month but up 3.5 million from last year. Area is estimated at 3.8 million
hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.2 million from last year. Yield is estimated at 6.84
tons per hectare (t/ha), up 9 percent from last
year. During December, several locations in
Argentinas key corn-production region reported
sporadic high temperatures above 38 degrees
Celsius, (100 degrees Fahrenheit), resulting in
moisture stress for some of the corn. About half
of the early corn was entering the silking and
tasseling stages the stages most susceptible to
drought. The corn in the northwest region of
Buenos Aires, the southeast region of Cordoba,
and the far southern region of Santa Fe has taken
the brunt of the damage. Only scattered or very
light rain (less than one-half inch) fell last week
near the towns of Colonia, Almada, and
Hernando in the province of Cordoba, while
elsewhere in much of this southern region of the
province no rain has been recorded. In Buenos
Aires, the regions around the towns of
Pergamino, Rojas and Salto have received less
than 10 mm (less than one-half inch) with
temperatures well above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
In the regions of Junn, Villegas (Pergamino) in
Buenos Aires province and around Mara Teresa and Labordeboy in the province of Sante Fe, the
crop has been under heat stress for several weeks. Some specialist suggest from 4 to 7 inches of
rain will be necessary to replenish soil moisture and relieve plant stress for continued crop
progress. In some sandy fields with severe damage, farmers are harvesting hay or directly
grazing the corn crop. (For additional information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-7200107.)
3
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
Argentina: After Dry December, Soybeans Likely to Benefit from Recent Rainfall
Argentine soybean production for 2011/12 is estimated at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million
from last month, but up 1.5 million from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 18.7 million
hectares, up 2 percent from last years 18.3 million. Yield is estimated at 2.70 tons per hectare,
down 1 percent from last month and up almost 1 percent from last year. Excessive December
dryness resulted in poor emergence and establishment of first-crop soybeans in northwestern
Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba and far-south Santa Fe provinces. Most soybeans in this region
are not yet flowering and could pull out of severe stress if the crop receives rainfall in January
and February. For instance, around Junn most soybeans only received about 6 mm (just over a
third of an inch) of rain during December, which hampered crop establishment and growth. In
the areas hardest hit from lack of rain, leaves of the soybean plants are smaller and crop plant
internodes are short which may limit future plant branching and flower and pod set. The rain
that fell in early January will encourage the planting of second-crop soybeans. As of last week,
only 40 percent of the second-crop soybeans were in the ground. (For additional information,
contact Dr. Denise McWilliams at 202-720-0107.)
Russia Sunseed: Production Estimate Continues to Climb
The USDA estimates Russia sunflowerseed production for 2011/12 at a record 9.6 million tons,
up 0.8 million or 9 percent from last month and up 4.3 million or 79 percent from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at a record 7.3 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up
1.7 million from last year, when severe drought resulted in an unusually high rate of
abandonment. Yield is estimated at 1.32 tons per hectare, up 38 percent from last year and up 18
percent from the 5-year average. The estimated yield, while not actually a record for Russia, is
the highest of the post-Soviet era. (Official data indicates sunseed yield at 1.48 tons per hectare
in 1989/90.) The month-to-month increase is based on a December 28 report from the Ministry
of Agriculture citing sunseed output at 9.6 million tons. (For more information, contact Mark
Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
Ukraine Sunseed: Area and Production Estimates Revised
The USDA has revised its estimates of Ukraine sunseed area and production for the marketing
years 2005/06 through 2011/12 in an effort to more closely reflect actual output. The USDA
revisions were based chiefly on exports of sunflower oil, meal, and seed, which are reported by
the State Customs Service of Ukraine to the Global Trade Information Service and published in
the Global Trade Atlas. Yield was estimated based on analysis of weather, yield models, and
SSC data, and harvested area was derived from the production and yield estimates.
Ukrainian law requires agricultural enterprises to follow approved crop rotations in an effort to
reduce the incidence of soil-borne fungal disease caused by too-frequent planting of sunflowers,
a consistently and highly profitable crop. These restrictions essentially restrict many farmers
from planting as much sunseed as they would like, and has resulted in the likely under-reporting
of sunseed area and production to the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine (SSC). Note that
sunseed is the only commodity for which the USDA does not adopt the area and production data
from the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine (SSC). The USDA considers SSC data to be
generally reliable and continues to use final SSC numbers as the basis for official area and
4
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
production data for all other Ukrainian oilseeds and grains. (For additional information, please
contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
Ukraine Corn: Ministry Harvest Reports Indicate Enormous Crop
The USDA estimates Ukraine corn production for 2011/12 at a record 22.5 million tons, up 1.5
million or 7 percent from last months record forecast, and up 10.6 million or 89 percent from
last year. Yield is estimated at a record 6.43 tons per hectare, up 43 percent from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 3.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.9 million
from last year. Favorable weather enabled the corn harvest to continue into late December. Last
year, by comparison, harvest was essentially finished by December 1.
Corn yield has doubled over the past ten years, and the estimated yield for 2011/12 surpasses the
previous record (5.02 tons per hectare in 2009/10) by nearly 30 percent. The remarkable
reported yield is consistent with the favorable weather that has prevailed throughout the growing
season, but the major reason for the steady 10-year climb in yield is the continued expansion in
the use of hybrid seed. Imported hybrids account for about 70 percent of Ukraines corn seed,
and local commodity analysts indicate that hybrid use will continue to increase. Yields have also
benefited from more efficient fertilization techniques and steady improvement in the quality of
harvest machinery. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)
5
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
6
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachs and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Branch, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDAs Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S.
area, yield, and production are from USDAs National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers
within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-502),
January 12, 2012.
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, February 9, 2012.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans
Corn, sorghum, rye
Barley
Oats
=
=
=
=
MT * 36.7437
MT * 39.36825
MT * 45.929625
MT * 68.894438
MT * 4.592917
MT * 22.04622
=
=
2.471044 acres
2.204622 pounds
7
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
GENERAL INFORMATION
Director
Acting Deputy Director
Sr. Analyst/SIA Manager
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor
Sr. Agricultural Economist
Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead
Program Analyst
GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator
202-690-0131
202-720-0873
202-690-0134
202-720-1280
202-720-0873
202-720-0881
202-720-0886
202-720-0419
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
202-720-0107
202-690-0138
202-690-0143
202-720-0881
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Paulette Sandene
Dath Mita PhD
202-690-0133
202-720-7339
[email protected]
[email protected]
202-690-0134
202-720-7366
202-720-1071
202-690-0135
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
8
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
January 2012
World
-
Total
Foreign
North
America
North
America
North
America
EU-27
-
Former
Soviet
Former
Soviet
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
South
America
South
America
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
All
Others
none
-
none
-
United
States
Canada
-
Mexico
-
none
-
Russia
-
Ukraine
-
China
-
India
-
Indonesia
Pakistan
Thailand
Argentina
Brazil
-
Australia
South
Africa
Turkey
-
none
-
685.4
625.1
60.4
26.8
4.1
138.8
61.8
20.9
115.1
80.7
nr
24.0
nr
12.0
5.0
21.8
2.0
18.5
93.6
2010/11 prel.
651.7
591.6
60.1
23.2
3.7
135.7
41.5
16.8
115.2
80.8
nr
23.9
nr
16.1
5.9
27.9
1.5
17.0
82.5
Dec
689.0
634.6
54.4
25.3
3.8
137.5
56.0
22.0
117.9
85.9
nr
24.0
nr
14.5
5.0
28.3
1.8
18.8
93.8
Jan
691.5
637.1
54.4
25.3
3.8
137.5
56.2
22.0
117.9
85.9
nr
24.0
nr
14.5
5.8
28.3
1.8
18.8
95.3
2009/10
1,115.6
766.8
348.8
22.5
27.3
155.0
31.8
24.1
169.6
33.9
6.9
3.6
4.2
28.5
58.4
10.9
13.9
11.2
164.9
2010/11 prel.
1,097.4
767.2
330.2
22.3
29.4
139.5
16.4
21.4
183.4
42.0
6.8
3.6
4.1
30.6
60.5
11.8
11.3
10.1
174.1
Dec
1,145.2
821.9
323.3
21.9
28.0
146.7
31.5
31.4
198.1
40.4
8.1
3.6
4.2
37.4
63.8
12.9
13.0
10.7
170.3
Jan
1,145.6
821.9
323.7
21.9
27.8
147.0
32.8
32.9
198.1
40.4
8.1
3.6
4.2
34.4
63.8
12.9
13.0
10.7
170.3
2009/10
440.5
433.4
7.1
nr
0.2
1.9
0.6
0.1
136.6
89.1
36.4
6.8
20.3
0.7
7.9
0.1
nr
0.4
132.4
2010/11 prel.
450.4
442.8
7.6
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
137.0
95.3
35.5
5.0
20.3
1.1
9.3
0.5
nr
0.5
135.6
Dec
460.8
454.8
6.0
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
140.5
100.0
37.3
6.7
20.3
1.0
8.7
0.7
nr
0.5
136.4
Jan
461.4
455.5
5.9
nr
0.1
1.9
0.7
0.1
140.5
100.0
37.3
6.6
20.3
1.0
8.2
0.7
nr
0.5
137.8
2009/10
2,241.5
1,825.3
416.3
49.3
31.6
295.7
94.2
45.1
421.3
203.7
43.3
34.4
24.4
41.2
71.4
32.9
15.8
30.0
390.9
2010/11 prel.
2,199.5
1,801.6
397.9
45.4
33.2
277.0
58.6
38.4
435.6
218.1
42.3
32.5
24.3
47.8
75.6
40.2
12.8
27.5
392.2
Dec
2,295.0
1,911.3
383.7
47.1
31.9
286.1
88.2
53.5
456.5
226.3
45.4
34.3
24.5
52.9
77.5
41.9
14.8
29.9
400.5
Jan
2,298.5
1,914.5
384.0
47.1
31.7
286.4
89.7
55.0
456.5
226.3
45.4
34.2
24.5
49.9
77.8
41.9
14.8
29.9
403.4
2009/10
443.9
345.0
98.9
16.5
0.6
29.6
8.0
10.5
57.8
32.4
9.4
5.2
0.6
57.9
71.4
2.6
1.2
1.5
39.6
2010/11 prel.
454.8
354.4
100.4
17.2
0.7
29.1
7.2
11.6
57.7
34.7
9.7
4.8
0.6
53.8
79.3
3.8
1.7
1.8
40.6
Dec
457.6
366.6
91.0
18.5
0.9
29.0
11.3
12.2
57.3
36.4
10.2
5.5
0.7
56.7
78.8
4.1
1.8
2.1
41.3
Jan
457.4
366.1
91.2
18.5
0.9
28.9
12.1
13.2
57.3
36.2
10.2
5.5
0.7
55.2
77.8
4.6
1.8
2.1
41.2
2009/10
101.7
89.5
12.2
nr
0.5
1.1
nr
nr
32.0
23.0
0.0
9.6
0.0
1.0
5.5
1.8
0.0
1.8
13.3
2010/11 prel.
115.3
97.2
18.1
nr
0.7
1.1
nr
nr
30.5
25.4
0.0
8.8
0.0
1.3
9.0
4.2
0.1
2.1
14.0
Dec
123.4
107.6
15.8
nr
1.2
1.6
nr
nr
33.5
27.5
0.0
10.0
0.0
1.2
9.0
5.0
0.1
3.1
15.4
Jan
122.8
107.2
15.7
nr
1.2
1.6
nr
nr
33.5
27.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
1.2
9.0
5.0
0.1
3.1
15.4
2011/12 proj.
Coarse Grains
2011/12 proj.
Rice, Milled
2011/12 proj.
Total Grains
2011/12 proj.
Oilseeds
2011/12 proj.
Cotton
2011/12 proj.
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
227.61
223.29
222.54
222.61
3.01
2.92
3.10
3.11
685.44
651.68
688.97
691.50
2.53
0.37
39.83
6.11
United States
20.19
19.27
18.50
18.50
2.99
3.12
2.94
2.94
60.37
60.06
54.41
54.41
0.00
0.00
-5.65
-9.41
Total Foreign
207.42
204.02
204.05
204.12
3.01
2.90
3.11
3.12
625.07
591.62
634.56
637.09
2.53
0.40
45.47
7.69
24.29
24.32
24.20
24.20
4.74
4.74
4.87
4.87
115.12
115.18
117.92
117.92
0.00
0.00
2.74
2.38
6.35
World
none
China
South Asia
27.75
28.36
29.40
29.40
2.91
2.85
2.92
2.92
80.68
80.80
85.93
85.93
0.00
0.00
5.13
Pakistan
9.05
9.03
9.00
9.00
2.65
2.65
2.67
2.67
24.00
23.90
24.00
24.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.42
Afghanistan
2.58
2.35
2.10
2.10
1.65
1.57
1.19
1.19
4.25
3.70
2.50
2.50
0.00
0.00
-1.20
-32.43
28.70
26.61
25.68
25.68
2.15
1.56
2.18
2.19
61.77
41.51
56.00
56.23
0.23
0.41
14.72
35.47
6.75
6.28
6.70
6.70
3.09
2.68
3.28
3.28
20.87
16.84
22.00
22.00
0.00
0.00
5.16
30.61
14.75
14.50
13.80
13.80
1.16
0.67
1.52
1.63
17.05
9.70
21.00
22.50
1.50
7.14
12.80
131.96
-3.08
India
1.40
1.40
1.40
1.40
4.43
4.64
4.50
4.50
6.20
6.50
6.30
6.30
0.00
0.00
-0.20
25.82
26.11
25.76
25.76
5.38
5.20
5.34
5.34
138.82
135.67
137.49
137.49
0.00
0.00
1.81
1.34
France
5.15
5.43
5.45
5.45
7.44
7.04
6.61
6.61
38.32
38.21
36.00
36.00
0.00
0.00
-2.21
-5.78
Germany
3.23
3.23
3.26
3.26
7.81
7.37
7.06
7.06
25.19
23.78
23.00
23.00
0.00
0.00
-0.78
-3.29
United Kingdom
1.78
1.94
2.00
2.00
7.93
7.67
7.68
7.68
14.08
14.88
15.35
15.35
0.00
0.00
0.47
3.17
Poland
2.35
2.41
2.42
2.42
4.17
3.87
3.84
3.84
9.79
9.30
9.30
9.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Spain
1.77
1.94
1.95
1.95
2.71
3.02
3.41
3.41
4.81
5.84
6.65
6.65
0.00
0.00
0.81
13.83
Italy
1.90
1.81
1.67
1.67
3.53
3.59
3.66
3.66
6.70
6.49
6.10
6.10
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-6.01
Denmark
0.74
0.77
0.74
0.74
8.04
6.61
6.80
6.80
5.94
5.06
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-1.11
Hungary
1.14
1.01
0.98
0.98
3.85
3.76
4.18
4.18
4.40
3.80
4.10
4.10
0.00
0.00
0.30
7.89
Romania
2.15
2.15
1.96
1.96
2.47
2.69
3.72
3.72
5.30
5.78
7.30
7.30
0.00
0.00
1.53
26.41
Bulgaria
1.25
1.13
1.04
1.04
3.19
3.62
4.08
4.08
3.98
4.09
4.25
4.25
0.00
0.00
0.16
3.81
9.64
8.27
8.55
8.55
2.79
2.80
2.96
2.96
26.85
23.17
25.26
25.26
0.00
0.00
2.09
9.03
13.88
13.65
14.10
14.10
1.57
2.04
2.01
2.01
21.83
27.89
28.30
28.30
0.00
0.00
0.41
1.47
Turkey
7.80
8.00
7.70
7.70
2.37
2.13
2.44
2.44
18.45
17.00
18.80
18.80
0.00
0.00
1.80
10.59
Iran
6.65
7.00
6.80
6.80
2.03
2.21
2.02
2.02
13.49
15.50
13.75
13.75
0.00
0.00
-1.75
-11.29
Syria
1.50
1.35
1.50
1.50
2.40
2.67
2.17
2.17
3.60
3.60
3.25
3.25
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-9.72
Egypt
1.32
1.26
1.32
1.32
6.45
5.71
6.59
6.59
8.52
7.20
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
1.50
20.83
Morocco
2.98
2.85
3.04
3.04
2.15
1.71
1.91
1.91
6.40
4.89
5.80
5.80
0.00
0.00
0.91
18.68
Argentina
4.00
4.60
5.00
5.00
3.00
3.50
2.90
2.90
12.00
16.10
14.50
14.50
0.00
0.00
-1.60
-9.94
18.57
18.08
18.00
18.07
2.43
2.35
2.39
2.43
45.18
42.47
43.06
43.86
0.80
1.86
1.40
3.29
Uzbekistan
EU-27
Canada
Australia
Middle East
North Africa
Others
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
310.52
309.53
314.54
314.70
3.59
3.55
3.64
3.64
1,115.55
1,097.41
1,145.19
1,145.56
0.38
0.03
48.16
4.39
United States
36.32
36.52
37.15
36.96
9.60
9.04
8.70
8.76
348.76
330.24
323.27
323.70
0.43
0.13
-6.54
-1.98
Total Foreign
274.20
273.01
277.39
277.74
2.80
2.81
2.96
2.96
766.80
767.17
821.92
821.87
-0.06
-0.01
54.70
7.13
33.38
34.77
35.72
35.72
5.08
5.27
5.55
5.55
169.60
183.41
198.06
198.06
0.00
0.00
14.66
7.99
13.93
14.86
15.54
16.04
4.19
4.07
4.11
3.98
58.41
60.48
63.83
63.83
0.00
0.00
3.35
5.54
4.20
5.66
6.02
6.02
6.80
5.40
6.22
5.72
28.53
30.56
37.41
34.41
-3.00
-8.02
3.85
12.61
5.43
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
32.53
30.19
30.24
30.23
4.77
4.62
4.85
4.86
155.04
139.46
146.70
147.03
0.33
0.22
7.57
France
4.21
3.77
3.76
3.76
7.52
7.22
7.28
7.33
31.65
27.17
27.34
27.54
0.20
0.73
0.37
1.37
Germany
3.68
3.29
3.24
3.24
6.67
6.16
5.77
5.77
24.56
20.26
18.69
18.69
0.00
0.00
-1.57
-7.76
Poland
6.16
6.01
5.64
5.64
3.24
2.95
3.06
3.06
19.94
17.74
17.27
17.27
0.00
0.00
-0.47
-2.63
Spain
4.13
3.94
3.84
3.84
2.92
3.28
3.63
3.68
12.09
12.91
13.94
14.14
0.20
1.43
1.23
9.54
Italy
1.43
1.37
1.53
1.53
7.20
7.61
7.51
7.51
10.32
10.41
11.51
11.51
0.00
0.00
1.10
10.59
Hungary
1.72
1.56
1.65
1.65
5.29
5.46
5.87
5.87
9.09
8.54
9.66
9.66
0.00
0.00
1.13
13.18
United Kingdom
1.30
1.07
1.12
1.12
5.80
5.65
5.76
5.67
7.54
6.07
6.47
6.37
-0.10
-1.55
0.30
4.89
Romania
3.14
3.03
3.24
3.24
2.91
3.46
3.75
3.75
9.14
10.48
12.13
12.13
0.00
0.00
1.65
15.75
EU-27
13.80
15.40
15.40
1.93
1.19
2.05
2.13
31.84
16.42
31.50
32.80
1.30
4.11
16.38
99.78
Ukraine
8.06
7.64
7.94
7.94
2.99
2.81
3.95
4.14
24.14
21.44
31.40
32.90
1.50
4.78
11.46
53.44
Kazakhstan
2.21
1.98
1.99
1.99
1.49
0.92
1.60
1.70
3.30
1.82
3.18
3.38
0.20
6.30
1.56
85.95
81.09
81.19
80.71
80.71
1.33
1.41
1.35
1.35
107.96
114.40
108.76
108.76
0.00
0.00
-5.64
-4.93
18.25
18.35
18.35
18.35
1.54
1.57
1.52
1.52
28.15
28.74
27.90
27.90
0.00
0.00
-0.84
-2.92
South Africa
4.15
3.73
3.85
3.85
3.35
3.03
3.36
3.36
13.88
11.33
12.95
12.95
0.00
0.00
1.62
14.34
Ethiopia
4.93
4.93
4.93
4.93
1.63
2.02
1.83
1.83
8.05
9.93
9.03
9.03
0.00
0.00
-0.90
-9.07
Egypt
1.05
1.06
0.73
0.73
6.99
7.13
6.66
6.66
7.34
7.56
4.86
4.86
0.00
0.00
-2.70
-35.71
27.01
27.09
26.45
26.45
1.25
1.55
1.53
1.53
33.89
42.00
40.37
40.37
0.00
0.00
-1.63
-3.88
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Philippines
2.52
2.63
2.56
2.56
2.47
2.76
2.73
2.73
6.23
7.27
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
-0.27
-3.73
Thailand
1.03
1.01
1.03
1.03
4.04
4.01
4.08
4.08
4.15
4.05
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.70
Mexico
8.20
9.29
8.73
8.63
3.32
3.16
3.21
3.22
27.25
29.37
28.00
27.78
-0.22
-0.78
-1.59
-5.43
Canada
5.23
4.67
4.75
4.75
4.30
4.77
4.61
4.61
22.48
22.26
21.87
21.87
0.00
0.00
-0.40
-1.78
Australia
5.90
5.38
5.79
5.79
1.85
2.19
2.23
2.23
10.92
11.76
12.91
12.91
0.00
0.00
1.15
9.73
Turkey
4.23
4.17
3.98
3.98
2.64
2.42
2.69
2.69
11.18
10.10
10.70
10.70
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.94
Others
25.11
25.83
27.42
27.37
2.59
2.54
2.48
2.48
64.97
65.59
67.95
67.79
-0.16
-0.24
2.21
3.36
Russia
Africa
Nigeria
India
Southeast Asia
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
157.74
163.11
168.31
168.83
5.19
5.07
5.15
5.14
819.23
827.35
867.52
868.06
0.54
0.06
40.71
4.92
United States
32.17
32.96
33.97
33.99
10.34
9.59
9.21
9.24
332.55
316.17
312.69
313.92
1.23
0.39
-2.25
-0.71
Total Foreign
125.57
130.15
134.34
134.84
3.88
3.93
4.13
4.11
486.69
511.19
554.84
554.14
-0.69
-0.13
42.96
8.40
31.18
32.50
33.40
33.40
5.26
5.45
5.74
5.74
163.97
177.25
191.75
191.75
0.00
0.00
14.51
8.18
12.93
13.80
14.50
15.00
4.34
4.17
4.21
4.07
56.10
57.50
61.00
61.00
0.00
0.00
3.50
6.09
2.75
3.60
3.80
3.80
8.47
6.25
7.63
6.84
23.30
22.50
29.00
26.00
-3.00
-10.34
3.50
15.56
Mexico
6.28
7.00
6.65
6.65
3.24
3.02
3.08
3.08
20.37
21.13
20.50
20.50
0.00
0.00
-0.63
-2.98
EU-27
8.29
7.98
8.79
8.79
6.87
6.99
7.27
7.32
56.95
55.80
63.89
64.31
0.43
0.67
8.52
15.27
France
1.68
1.53
1.57
1.57
9.10
9.00
9.81
9.94
15.29
13.79
15.40
15.60
0.20
1.30
1.81
13.13
Italy
0.93
0.92
1.00
1.00
9.30
9.60
9.58
9.58
8.65
8.78
9.58
9.58
0.00
0.00
0.80
9.11
Hungary
1.18
1.07
1.20
1.20
6.36
6.55
6.75
6.75
7.50
7.00
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.10
15.71
Romania
2.35
2.25
2.55
2.55
3.19
3.87
4.00
4.00
7.50
8.70
10.20
10.20
0.00
0.00
1.50
17.24
Poland
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.34
6.23
5.72
6.18
6.18
1.71
1.72
2.10
2.10
0.00
0.00
0.39
22.45
India
8.33
8.55
8.50
8.50
2.01
2.49
2.47
2.47
16.72
21.28
21.00
21.00
0.00
0.00
-0.28
-1.32
Canada
1.14
1.20
1.20
1.20
8.37
9.74
8.92
8.92
9.56
11.71
10.70
10.70
0.00
0.00
-1.01
-8.66
Indonesia
3.06
2.85
3.15
3.15
2.25
2.39
2.57
2.57
6.90
6.80
8.10
8.10
0.00
0.00
1.30
19.12
Ukraine
2.09
2.65
3.50
3.50
5.02
4.50
6.00
6.43
10.49
11.92
21.00
22.50
1.50
7.14
10.58
88.77
Serbia
1.20
1.23
1.26
1.26
5.33
5.53
4.97
4.97
6.40
6.80
6.27
6.27
0.00
0.00
-0.53
-7.84
Egypt
0.84
0.85
0.52
0.52
7.48
7.65
7.31
7.31
6.28
6.50
3.80
3.80
0.00
0.00
-2.70
-41.54
Philippines
2.52
2.63
2.56
2.56
2.47
2.76
2.73
2.73
6.23
7.27
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
-0.27
-3.73
Vietnam
1.13
1.20
1.25
1.25
4.09
4.17
4.32
4.32
4.61
5.00
5.40
5.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
8.00
Thailand
1.00
0.98
1.00
1.00
4.10
4.08
4.15
4.15
4.10
4.00
4.15
4.15
0.00
0.00
0.15
3.75
Russia
1.37
1.42
1.74
1.74
2.90
2.17
3.61
3.83
3.96
3.08
6.30
6.68
0.38
6.03
3.61
117.24
South Africa
3.26
2.86
3.00
3.00
4.11
3.82
4.17
4.17
13.42
10.92
12.50
12.50
0.00
0.00
1.58
14.43
Nigeria
4.90
4.90
4.90
4.90
1.83
1.91
1.78
1.78
8.95
9.34
8.70
8.70
0.00
0.00
-0.64
-6.85
Ethiopia
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.95
2.40
2.20
2.20
3.90
4.80
4.40
4.40
0.00
0.00
-0.40
-8.33
Zimbabwe
1.10
1.35
1.60
1.60
0.59
0.74
0.88
0.88
0.65
1.00
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.40
40.00
World
none
China
South America
Brazil
Argentina
Sub-Saharan Africa
Turkey
0.50
0.49
0.45
0.45
8.00
7.35
8.00
8.00
4.00
3.60
3.60
3.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
29.71
30.11
30.57
30.57
2.01
2.09
2.11
2.11
59.82
62.99
64.38
64.38
0.00
0.00
1.39
2.20
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
55.78
50.44
50.31
50.16
2.71
2.44
2.65
2.66
150.92
123.23
133.29
133.45
0.16
0.12
10.22
8.29
United States
1.26
1.00
0.91
0.91
3.93
3.93
3.74
3.74
4.95
3.93
3.39
3.39
0.00
0.00
-0.53
-13.58
Total Foreign
54.52
49.44
49.40
49.25
2.68
2.41
2.63
2.64
145.97
119.31
129.90
130.06
0.16
0.12
10.75
9.01
102.81
World
none
Russia
9.09
7.21
7.96
7.96
1.97
1.16
2.07
2.13
17.88
8.35
16.50
16.94
0.44
2.64
8.59
EU-27
13.94
12.49
12.06
12.06
4.46
4.24
4.34
4.33
62.15
53.03
52.35
52.25
-0.10
-0.19
-0.77
-1.46
Germany
1.88
1.64
1.61
1.61
6.54
6.29
5.46
5.46
12.29
10.33
8.78
8.78
0.00
0.00
-1.55
-14.98
France
1.88
1.58
1.55
1.55
6.92
6.39
5.72
5.72
13.00
10.10
8.87
8.87
0.00
0.00
-1.23
-12.20
Spain
3.02
2.87
2.73
2.73
2.41
2.84
3.12
3.12
7.30
8.15
8.50
8.50
0.00
0.00
0.35
4.29
United Kingdom
1.14
0.92
0.97
0.97
5.83
5.70
5.79
5.68
6.67
5.25
5.60
5.50
-0.10
-1.79
0.25
4.72
Denmark
0.59
0.59
0.60
0.60
5.77
5.04
5.55
5.55
3.42
2.99
3.30
3.30
0.00
0.00
0.31
10.33
Poland
1.16
1.12
1.00
1.00
3.44
3.15
3.33
3.33
3.98
3.53
3.33
3.33
0.00
0.00
-0.20
-5.67
Czech Republic
0.45
0.39
0.37
0.37
4.41
4.08
4.97
4.97
2.00
1.58
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.27
16.92
Finland
0.60
0.41
0.41
0.41
3.63
3.26
3.60
3.60
2.18
1.33
1.48
1.48
0.00
0.00
0.15
10.96
Sweden
0.36
0.32
0.32
0.32
4.65
3.87
4.53
4.53
1.68
1.23
1.45
1.45
0.00
0.00
0.22
17.69
Italy
0.31
0.27
0.32
0.32
3.42
3.62
3.60
3.60
1.05
0.99
1.17
1.17
0.00
0.00
0.17
17.56
Hungary
0.32
0.29
0.26
0.26
3.22
3.37
3.81
3.81
1.03
0.97
0.99
0.99
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.48
Austria
0.18
0.17
0.15
0.15
4.59
4.60
5.23
5.23
0.84
0.78
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.83
Ukraine
4.99
4.32
3.70
3.70
2.37
1.97
2.43
2.43
11.83
8.48
9.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.52
6.08
Canada
2.92
2.39
2.37
2.37
3.26
3.19
3.28
3.28
9.52
7.61
7.76
7.76
0.00
0.00
0.16
2.04
Australia
4.42
3.74
4.00
4.00
1.78
2.18
2.13
2.13
7.87
8.15
8.50
8.50
0.00
0.00
0.36
4.36
Turkey
3.40
3.35
3.20
3.20
1.91
1.76
2.03
2.03
6.50
5.90
6.50
6.50
0.00
0.00
0.60
10.17
China
0.63
0.65
0.68
0.68
3.70
3.85
3.85
3.85
2.32
2.50
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.10
4.00
Iran
1.68
1.70
1.65
1.65
2.06
2.06
1.82
1.82
3.45
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-14.29
Morocco
2.18
1.92
2.03
2.03
1.74
1.34
1.16
1.16
3.80
2.57
2.34
2.34
0.00
0.00
-0.23
-8.95
Kazakhstan
1.85
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.36
0.81
1.56
1.69
2.52
1.30
2.50
2.70
0.20
8.00
1.40
107.69
Ethiopia
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.98
1.61
1.44
1.44
1.44
1.57
1.40
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.61
0.69
0.65
0.65
3.47
2.85
2.77
2.77
2.12
1.97
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
-0.17
-8.44
India
0.78
0.74
0.75
0.75
2.17
1.82
2.09
2.09
1.69
1.35
1.57
1.57
0.00
0.00
0.22
16.30
Argentina
0.50
0.75
0.95
0.95
2.70
3.93
3.47
3.47
1.36
2.95
3.30
3.30
0.00
0.00
0.35
11.86
Mexico
0.23
0.31
0.31
0.21
2.17
2.52
2.52
2.67
0.50
0.78
0.78
0.56
-0.22
-27.91
-0.22
-27.91
Iraq
0.50
1.25
1.13
1.13
0.90
0.92
0.88
0.88
0.45
1.15
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-13.04
Algeria
1.24
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.94
1.50
1.35
1.35
2.40
1.50
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-10.00
Others
4.58
4.35
4.40
4.35
1.76
1.57
1.74
1.72
8.05
6.83
7.65
7.49
-0.16
-2.09
0.66
9.59
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
11.26
10.58
11.04
11.04
2.07
1.86
2.06
2.09
23.32
19.65
22.77
23.11
0.33
1.47
3.46
17.58
United States
0.56
0.51
0.38
0.38
2.42
2.31
2.05
2.05
1.35
1.18
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
-0.40
-33.87
Total Foreign
10.70
10.07
10.66
10.66
2.05
1.83
2.06
2.09
21.97
18.47
21.99
22.33
0.33
1.52
3.85
20.86
Russia
3.37
2.90
3.23
3.23
1.60
1.11
1.55
1.65
5.40
3.22
5.00
5.33
0.33
6.68
2.12
65.76
Canada
0.98
0.91
1.03
1.03
2.97
2.74
2.91
2.91
2.91
2.48
3.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.52
20.97
EU-27
2.91
2.72
2.68
2.68
2.95
2.71
2.99
2.99
8.58
7.37
8.01
8.01
0.00
0.00
0.64
8.72
Poland
0.53
0.54
0.50
0.50
2.70
2.47
2.71
2.71
1.42
1.34
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.02
1.35
Finland
0.34
0.28
0.31
0.31
3.54
2.90
3.38
3.38
1.21
0.81
1.04
1.04
0.00
0.00
0.23
28.78
Spain
0.56
0.54
0.52
0.52
1.65
1.89
2.10
2.10
0.92
1.02
1.08
1.08
0.00
0.00
0.06
6.19
Germany
0.16
0.14
0.14
0.14
5.07
4.24
4.41
4.41
0.83
0.60
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.03
5.35
Sweden
0.19
0.17
0.18
0.18
3.99
3.23
4.26
4.26
0.75
0.54
0.78
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.24
44.51
United Kingdom
0.13
0.12
0.13
0.13
5.77
5.52
5.76
5.76
0.74
0.69
0.72
0.72
0.00
0.00
0.04
5.11
France
0.12
0.10
0.09
0.09
4.90
4.57
4.35
4.35
0.57
0.45
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-18.14
Italy
0.13
0.11
0.12
0.12
2.34
2.45
2.40
2.40
0.31
0.28
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.01
3.94
Denmark
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.05
4.70
4.91
4.80
4.80
0.32
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.01
3.90
Romania
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.18
1.45
1.74
1.83
1.83
0.30
0.34
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.94
Czech Republic
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.32
2.65
3.33
3.33
0.17
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.70
Hungary
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
2.19
2.41
2.82
2.82
0.11
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.03
26.02
Austria
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
3.89
3.63
3.60
3.60
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-8.16
Ireland
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
7.30
7.63
7.25
7.25
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Lithuania
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
2.23
1.34
2.00
2.00
0.14
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Australia
0.85
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.37
1.37
1.65
1.65
1.16
1.14
1.65
1.65
0.00
0.00
0.51
44.61
Ukraine
0.42
0.31
0.29
0.29
1.76
1.47
1.90
1.90
0.73
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.09
20.09
China
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.24
1.78
1.75
1.75
1.75
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Belarus
0.17
0.18
0.28
0.28
3.31
2.40
2.91
2.91
0.55
0.44
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.36
81.00
Brazil
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.89
2.46
2.40
2.40
0.25
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-2.37
Argentina
0.14
0.29
0.22
0.22
1.31
2.32
1.57
1.57
0.18
0.66
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
-0.32
-47.73
Chile
0.08
0.11
0.10
0.10
5.01
5.32
5.00
5.00
0.38
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-11.35
Norway
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
3.36
3.36
3.36
3.36
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Turkey
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.34
2.21
2.21
2.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Kazakhstan
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
1.34
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.20
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.85
1.85
1.85
1.85
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
1.05
1.04
1.04
1.04
0.60
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.63
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.66
World
none
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
World
6.43
5.51
5.28
5.28
2.73
2.10
2.42
2.42
17.52
11.54
12.79
12.76
-0.03
-0.24
1.21
10.49
United States
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
1.75
1.77
1.64
1.64
0.18
0.19
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-14.81
Total Foreign
6.33
5.40
5.18
5.18
2.74
2.10
2.44
2.43
17.35
11.36
12.63
12.59
-0.03
-0.25
1.24
10.91
none
2.80
2.59
2.28
2.28
3.55
3.01
3.02
3.02
9.95
7.80
6.88
6.88
0.00
0.00
-0.91
-11.70
Poland
1.40
1.40
1.10
1.10
2.66
2.34
2.33
2.33
3.71
3.27
2.57
2.57
0.00
0.00
-0.71
-21.56
Germany
0.76
0.63
0.62
0.62
5.70
4.63
4.11
4.11
4.33
2.90
2.53
2.53
0.00
0.00
-0.37
-12.76
Spain
0.13
0.14
0.15
0.15
1.37
2.02
2.27
2.27
0.18
0.28
0.34
0.34
0.00
0.00
0.06
22.91
Lithuania
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
2.54
1.67
2.50
2.50
0.21
0.09
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.04
49.43
Latvia
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
2.75
2.50
2.76
2.76
0.16
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.01
10.53
France
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.20
5.21
4.48
4.48
0.13
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-13.91
Denmark
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
5.57
5.44
5.33
5.33
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Czech Republic
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
4.68
3.93
4.68
4.68
0.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.85
Austria
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.76
3.50
4.28
4.28
0.18
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.04
22.36
Sweden
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
5.92
4.72
5.76
5.76
0.22
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.03
22.03
Hungary
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.03
1.80
2.08
2.30
2.30
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
Slovakia
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
2.85
2.12
3.31
3.31
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.01
19.44
Finland
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
2.48
2.76
2.80
2.80
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.45
United Kingdom
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
7.20
6.20
7.00
7.00
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.90
Romania
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
2.06
2.27
2.50
2.50
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
-11.76
Greece
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
1.83
1.83
1.83
1.83
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Portugal
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.95
0.90
0.95
0.95
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Russia
2.15
1.76
1.62
1.62
2.02
0.93
1.85
1.83
4.33
1.64
3.00
2.97
-0.03
-1.03
1.33
80.82
Belarus
0.45
0.35
0.58
0.58
2.70
2.09
2.61
2.61
1.23
0.74
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.77
104.08
Ukraine
0.46
0.28
0.29
0.29
2.07
1.66
1.93
1.93
0.95
0.46
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.09
18.53
Canada
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.08
2.43
2.44
2.47
2.47
0.28
0.23
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-15.95
Turkey
0.14
0.13
0.13
0.13
2.49
2.08
2.08
2.08
0.34
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.05
0.02
0.04
0.04
1.15
1.67
1.43
1.43
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.01
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.23
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Switzerland
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.67
6.67
6.67
6.67
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
1.36
1.39
1.39
1.39
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
40.66
41.20
41.09
40.88
1.46
1.60
1.50
1.49
59.19
66.08
61.54
60.74
-0.80
-1.30
-5.33
-8.07
United States
2.23
1.95
1.79
1.59
4.35
4.51
3.48
3.43
9.73
8.78
6.25
5.45
-0.80
-12.79
-3.33
-37.95
Total Foreign
38.43
39.25
39.29
39.29
1.29
1.46
1.41
1.41
49.46
57.30
55.30
55.30
0.00
0.00
-2.00
-3.49
Nigeria
7.50
7.60
7.60
7.60
1.53
1.54
1.51
1.51
11.50
11.70
11.50
11.50
0.00
0.00
-0.20
-1.71
Sudan
6.00
6.20
5.60
5.60
0.44
0.74
0.68
0.68
2.63
4.61
3.80
3.80
0.00
0.00
-0.81
-17.50
Ethiopia
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.34
2.06
1.74
1.74
2.08
3.20
2.70
2.70
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-15.63
Burkina
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
0.94
1.20
1.11
1.11
1.52
1.95
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-7.69
Tanzania
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.79
0.94
0.82
0.82
0.71
0.85
0.74
0.74
0.00
0.00
-0.11
-12.94
Niger
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.49
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.74
1.20
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
-0.30
-25.00
Uganda
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
1.60
1.68
1.61
1.61
0.50
0.52
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-3.85
Mozambique
0.61
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.66
0.66
0.38
0.38
0.41
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.03
6.77
Ghana
0.34
0.34
0.34
0.34
1.03
1.06
0.96
0.96
0.35
0.36
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-9.72
South Africa
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.05
2.26
2.25
2.50
2.50
0.20
0.16
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-19.35
India
7.50
7.20
7.20
7.20
0.89
0.94
0.94
0.94
6.70
6.74
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.06
0.89
Pakistan
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
4.83
4.40
4.70
4.70
3.63
4.40
4.70
4.70
0.00
0.00
0.30
6.82
Brazil
0.79
0.82
0.80
0.80
2.34
2.83
2.75
2.75
1.85
2.31
2.20
2.20
0.00
0.00
-0.11
-4.93
Mexico
1.62
1.92
1.70
1.70
3.87
3.84
3.88
3.88
6.25
7.35
6.60
6.60
0.00
0.00
-0.75
-10.20
China
0.56
0.58
0.60
0.60
3.00
3.10
3.08
3.08
1.68
1.80
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.05
2.78
Australia
0.50
0.67
0.66
0.66
3.03
3.07
3.64
3.64
1.51
2.07
2.40
2.40
0.00
0.00
0.33
16.05
Egypt
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
5.63
5.63
5.63
5.63
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.12
0.11
0.13
0.13
5.22
5.45
5.73
5.73
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.13
20.93
France
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.04
5.40
5.50
6.27
6.27
0.31
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-3.50
Italy
0.04
0.04
0.06
0.06
6.08
6.61
6.16
6.16
0.24
0.27
0.39
0.39
0.00
0.00
0.12
43.17
Others
5.78
5.84
6.71
6.71
0.96
1.03
0.92
0.92
5.57
6.03
6.15
6.15
0.00
0.00
0.12
1.91
World
none
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
South America
January 2012
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
156.02
157.01
160.26
160.14
4.23
4.30
4.31
4.32
440.52
450.37
460.84
461.44
0.60
0.13
11.07
2.46
United States
1.26
1.46
1.06
1.06
7.94
7.54
8.03
7.92
7.13
7.59
6.04
5.94
-0.10
-1.62
-1.66
-21.81
Total Foreign
154.77
155.55
159.20
159.08
4.20
4.27
4.28
4.29
433.39
442.78
454.80
455.50
0.70
0.15
12.72
2.87
China
29.63
29.82
29.94
29.94
6.59
6.56
6.70
6.70
136.57
137.00
140.50
140.50
0.00
0.00
3.50
2.55
Japan
1.62
1.63
1.60
1.58
6.52
6.51
6.59
6.66
7.71
7.72
7.68
7.65
-0.03
-0.44
-0.07
-0.96
Korea, South
0.92
0.89
0.85
0.85
7.04
6.51
6.68
6.58
4.92
4.30
4.22
4.22
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-1.65
Korea, North
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.57
5.02
4.24
4.51
4.32
1.91
1.60
1.70
1.60
-0.10
-5.88
0.00
0.00
India
41.85
42.70
45.00
45.00
3.19
3.35
3.33
3.33
89.09
95.30
100.00
100.00
0.00
0.00
4.70
4.93
Bangladesh
11.60
11.80
12.00
12.00
4.01
4.22
4.13
4.25
31.00
33.20
33.00
34.00
1.00
3.03
0.80
2.41
2.80
2.10
2.75
2.75
3.64
3.57
3.63
3.57
6.80
5.00
6.65
6.55
-0.10
-1.50
1.55
31.00
World
none
East Asia
South Asia
Pakistan
Southeast Asia
12.10
12.08
12.15
12.15
4.73
4.67
4.83
4.83
36.37
35.50
37.30
37.30
0.00
0.00
1.80
5.07
Vietnam
7.42
7.61
7.56
7.56
5.39
5.53
5.54
5.54
24.99
26.30
26.15
26.15
0.00
0.00
-0.15
-0.57
Thailand
Indonesia
10.94
10.67
10.96
10.96
2.81
2.88
2.81
2.81
20.26
20.26
20.30
20.30
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.19
Burma
7.00
7.00
6.69
6.69
2.60
2.65
2.71
2.71
10.55
10.75
10.50
10.50
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-2.33
Philippines
4.41
4.53
4.60
4.60
3.52
3.69
3.62
3.62
9.77
10.54
10.50
10.50
0.00
0.00
-0.04
-0.37
Cambodia
2.68
2.78
2.63
2.70
2.84
2.97
2.90
3.12
4.78
5.20
4.80
5.30
0.50
10.42
0.10
1.92
Laos
0.89
0.87
0.82
0.82
3.61
3.45
3.76
3.76
1.92
1.80
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
0.05
2.78
Malaysia
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
3.71
3.71
3.74
3.74
1.62
1.61
1.63
1.63
0.00
0.00
0.02
1.24
Brazil
2.77
2.82
2.75
2.60
4.22
4.83
4.63
4.62
7.93
9.26
8.65
8.16
-0.49
-5.66
-1.10
-11.85
Peru
0.41
0.39
0.34
0.34
7.40
7.28
7.10
7.10
2.09
1.94
1.67
1.67
0.00
0.00
-0.27
-14.08
Nigeria
2.10
2.15
2.17
2.17
2.06
1.93
1.98
1.98
2.60
2.49
2.58
2.58
0.00
0.00
0.09
3.61
Madagascar
1.34
1.34
1.34
1.34
3.36
3.57
3.21
3.21
2.88
3.06
2.75
2.75
0.00
0.00
-0.31
-10.12
EU-27
0.46
0.47
0.46
0.46
6.49
6.25
6.44
6.44
1.89
1.87
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.03
1.71
Italy
0.24
0.25
0.24
0.24
6.74
6.28
6.52
6.52
0.98
0.95
0.97
0.97
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.11
Spain
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
6.42
6.36
6.39
6.39
0.54
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.37
0.67
0.45
0.76
0.76
9.87
10.60
9.51
9.51
4.30
3.10
4.70
4.70
0.00
0.00
1.60
51.61
South America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Egypt
Iran
Others
0.54
0.54
0.54
0.54
4.20
4.21
4.21
4.21
1.49
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
11.39
11.69
12.04
12.04
2.96
3.08
3.09
3.08
21.95
23.49
24.27
24.19
-0.08
-0.31
0.71
3.00
January 2012
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
World Total
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
443.95
454.80
457.62
457.35
-0.27
-0.06
2.55
Total Foreign
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
345.05
354.42
366.62
366.13
-0.49
-0.13
11.71
3.30
Oilseed, Copra
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-0.95
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
12.22
12.64
13.35
13.35
0.00
0.00
0.71
5.60
206.29
213.29
217.95
218.79
2.06
2.05
2.01
2.00
425.85
436.27
438.44
438.17
-0.27
-0.06
1.90
0.44
35.51
37.18
35.28
35.20
2.79
2.70
2.58
2.59
98.90
100.38
91.01
91.22
0.22
0.24
-9.15
-9.12
170.78
176.11
182.67
183.58
1.91
1.91
1.90
1.89
326.95
335.89
347.43
346.94
-0.49
-0.14
11.06
3.29
50.21
51.72
53.67
53.37
2.80
2.81
2.74
2.71
140.71
145.19
147.26
144.76
-2.50
-1.70
-0.43
-0.29
Brazil
24.50
25.78
26.58
26.58
2.91
3.07
2.96
2.92
71.36
79.21
78.73
77.73
-1.00
-1.27
-1.49
-1.87
Argentina
20.75
20.91
21.73
21.43
2.79
2.58
2.61
2.58
57.94
53.85
56.68
55.18
-1.50
-2.65
1.33
2.47
Paraguay
2.82
3.03
3.14
3.14
2.61
2.83
2.52
2.52
7.35
8.57
7.90
7.90
0.00
0.00
-0.68
-7.87
0.56
none
Major OilSeeds
United States
none
Foreign Oilseeds
South America
1.14
0.99
1.06
1.06
1.74
1.75
1.70
1.70
1.98
1.73
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.07
3.87
China
27.10
26.52
25.91
25.91
2.13
2.18
2.21
2.21
57.84
57.69
57.33
57.33
0.00
0.00
-0.36
-0.63
South Asia
37.21
38.25
40.16
40.16
1.00
1.02
1.03
1.03
37.07
39.00
41.47
41.27
-0.20
-0.48
2.28
5.83
33.06
34.20
35.73
35.73
0.96
0.99
1.00
0.99
31.62
33.93
35.68
35.48
-0.20
-0.56
1.56
4.58
3.83
3.73
4.10
4.10
1.36
1.29
1.35
1.35
5.19
4.81
5.53
5.53
0.00
0.00
0.72
14.86
Bolivia
India
Pakistan
10.99
11.41
11.74
11.70
2.70
2.55
2.47
2.47
29.65
29.07
28.96
28.91
-0.05
-0.17
-0.17
-0.57
France
2.25
2.21
2.34
2.34
3.30
2.98
3.13
3.13
7.43
6.60
7.31
7.31
0.00
0.00
0.71
10.83
Germany
1.50
1.51
1.48
1.48
4.26
3.80
2.81
2.74
6.36
5.75
4.16
4.06
-0.10
-2.40
-1.69
-29.33
Poland
0.83
0.86
0.82
0.82
3.05
2.63
2.28
2.28
2.52
2.25
1.86
1.86
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-17.19
Romania
1.26
1.44
1.42
1.42
1.48
1.70
1.75
1.75
1.87
2.45
2.49
2.49
0.00
0.00
0.04
1.43
Hungary
0.82
0.80
0.85
0.85
2.32
2.03
2.30
2.30
1.91
1.63
1.95
1.95
0.00
0.00
0.32
19.55
EU-27
0.57
0.64
0.70
0.70
3.35
3.47
3.64
3.79
1.91
2.23
2.55
2.65
0.10
3.92
0.42
18.83
17.24
18.75
20.20
21.40
1.30
1.21
1.37
1.37
22.38
22.71
27.59
29.37
1.79
6.48
6.66
29.32
Russia
6.95
7.20
9.27
9.27
1.16
1.01
1.21
1.30
8.03
7.24
11.25
12.05
0.80
7.11
4.81
66.39
Ukraine
6.64
7.30
6.55
7.75
1.58
1.58
1.86
1.70
10.52
11.55
12.20
13.20
1.00
8.20
1.65
14.29
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.23
1.23
1.53
1.60
1.65
1.65
0.00
0.00
0.05
3.13
7.83
8.05
9.09
9.09
2.11
2.14
2.04
2.04
16.51
17.23
18.53
18.53
0.00
0.00
1.29
7.50
12.19
12.53
12.99
12.99
0.89
0.92
0.91
0.91
10.87
11.52
11.83
11.83
0.00
0.00
0.32
2.74
2.08
2.10
2.05
2.05
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.06
2.19
2.21
2.17
2.17
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-1.45
3.57
3.57
3.58
3.58
1.33
1.33
1.35
1.35
4.75
4.76
4.84
4.84
0.00
0.00
0.07
1.51
1.29
1.23
1.22
1.22
1.52
1.56
1.55
1.55
1.96
1.91
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-0.52
Australia
1.99
2.75
2.43
2.48
1.31
1.38
1.71
1.85
2.61
3.81
4.15
4.59
0.44
10.60
0.78
20.54
Others
2.45
2.56
2.89
2.89
1.86
1.92
1.90
1.91
4.55
4.91
5.49
5.52
0.03
0.58
0.61
12.49
United Kingdom
Former Soviet Union - 12
Canada
Africa
Nigeria
Southeast Asia
Indonesia
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)
Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
102.17
102.76
103.83
103.51
2.55
2.57
2.50
2.48
260.85
264.18
259.22
257.00
-2.22
-0.85
-7.18
-2.72
United States
30.91
31.00
29.82
29.80
2.96
2.92
2.78
2.79
91.42
90.61
82.89
83.17
0.29
0.34
-7.43
-8.20
Total Foreign
71.26
71.75
74.01
73.71
2.38
2.42
2.38
2.36
169.44
173.57
176.33
173.83
-2.50
-1.42
0.26
0.15
Brazil
23.50
24.20
25.00
25.00
2.94
3.12
3.00
2.96
69.00
75.50
75.00
74.00
-1.00
-1.33
-1.50
-1.99
Argentina
18.60
18.30
19.00
18.70
2.93
2.68
2.74
2.70
54.50
49.00
52.00
50.50
-1.50
-2.88
1.50
3.06
Paraguay
2.68
2.84
2.90
2.90
2.69
2.92
2.62
2.62
7.20
8.30
7.60
7.60
0.00
0.00
-0.70
-8.43
Bolivia
0.90
0.85
0.90
0.90
1.85
1.86
1.76
1.76
1.67
1.58
1.58
1.58
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uruguay
0.86
0.87
1.00
1.00
2.11
1.79
1.80
1.80
1.82
1.55
1.80
1.80
0.00
0.00
0.26
16.50
China
9.19
8.52
7.65
7.65
1.63
1.77
1.76
1.76
14.98
15.10
13.50
13.50
0.00
0.00
-1.60
-10.60
Korea, South
0.07
0.07
0.08
0.08
1.99
1.46
1.69
1.69
0.14
0.11
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.03
30.48
Korea, North
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.08
1.19
1.19
1.19
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Japan
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.63
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
India
9.60
9.30
10.27
10.27
1.01
1.05
1.07
1.07
9.70
9.80
11.00
11.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
12.24
Canada
1.38
1.48
1.54
1.54
2.54
2.94
2.75
2.75
3.51
4.35
4.25
4.25
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-2.28
Ukraine
0.62
1.04
1.10
1.10
1.68
1.62
2.00
2.00
1.04
1.68
2.20
2.20
0.00
0.00
0.52
30.95
Russia
0.79
1.04
1.20
1.20
1.19
1.18
1.25
1.25
0.94
1.22
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.28
22.75
Indonesia
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.47
1.32
1.38
1.38
1.38
0.70
0.65
0.64
0.64
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-1.54
Vietnam
0.15
0.20
0.22
0.22
1.47
1.50
1.63
1.63
0.21
0.30
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.05
17.85
Thailand
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.16
0.17
0.17
0.17
1.20
1.21
1.21
1.21
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
EU-27
0.31
0.38
0.42
0.42
2.71
2.79
2.90
2.90
0.84
1.05
1.22
1.22
0.00
0.00
0.17
16.41
Italy
0.14
0.16
0.21
0.21
3.47
3.45
3.43
3.43
0.47
0.55
0.70
0.70
0.00
0.00
0.15
27.36
France
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.05
2.50
2.75
2.55
2.55
0.11
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
-0.02
-14.29
South Africa
0.31
0.42
0.42
0.42
1.82
1.70
1.79
1.79
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.04
5.63
Nigeria
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.15
0.15
0.17
0.17
2.41
2.41
2.52
2.52
0.35
0.35
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.07
18.57
Mexico
0.08
0.11
0.13
0.13
1.49
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.12
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.03
19.05
Iran
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.46
2.47
2.47
2.47
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.32
0.31
0.32
0.32
1.86
1.91
1.91
1.91
0.60
0.59
0.61
0.61
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.89
World
none
South America
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
29.43
32.65
34.85
34.81
1.33
1.33
1.34
1.33
39.03
43.48
46.64
46.42
-0.22
-0.47
2.93
6.74
United States
3.05
4.33
3.99
3.95
1.24
1.28
1.21
1.21
3.76
5.53
4.82
4.78
-0.04
-0.85
-0.75
-13.63
Total Foreign
26.39
28.32
30.86
30.86
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
35.27
37.95
41.82
41.64
-0.18
-0.43
3.69
9.71
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
2.37
2.32
2.39
2.39
12.54
11.95
13.13
13.13
0.00
0.00
1.18
9.85
10.31
11.14
12.20
12.20
0.95
0.97
0.96
0.94
9.80
10.80
11.70
11.50
-0.20
-1.71
0.70
6.48
3.00
2.90
3.20
3.20
1.39
1.31
1.38
1.38
4.18
3.80
4.40
4.40
0.00
0.00
0.60
15.79
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
1.17
1.23
1.23
1.23
1.53
1.60
1.65
1.65
0.00
0.00
0.05
3.13
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.58
0.58
1.05
1.07
0.96
0.96
0.58
0.69
0.55
0.55
0.00
0.00
-0.14
-19.71
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
0.88
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.16
0.20
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.05
29.03
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.85
1.11
1.00
0.15
0.11
0.16
0.14
-0.02
-9.68
0.03
27.27
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.40
1.40
2.43
2.39
2.39
2.39
2.03
3.35
3.35
3.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.55
0.55
0.70
0.73
0.68
0.68
0.31
0.44
0.38
0.38
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-14.77
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.48
0.48
2.04
2.16
2.08
2.08
0.57
0.69
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.31
44.93
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
2.75
2.75
2.73
2.73
0.45
0.34
0.41
0.41
0.00
0.00
0.07
19.19
Iran
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.02
12.50
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.60
0.60
2.73
2.20
2.50
2.50
0.55
1.30
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.20
15.38
EU-27
0.26
0.31
0.37
0.37
1.34
1.30
1.44
1.44
0.35
0.40
0.54
0.54
0.00
0.00
0.14
35.10
Greece
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.30
1.53
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.31
0.32
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.13
40.63
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.73
1.19
1.20
1.20
0.04
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.01
12.00
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.46
0.45
0.48
0.48
0.19
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.01
7.22
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.48
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.47
0.47
0.13
0.13
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.09
68.66
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
0.75
0.98
0.93
0.93
0.11
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.00
0.00
0.03
18.25
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
0.96
1.21
0.94
0.94
0.03
0.05
0.09
0.09
0.00
0.00
0.03
66.67
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.48
0.51
0.51
0.19
0.19
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.03
14.74
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.36
0.36
0.49
0.50
0.48
0.48
0.19
0.21
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-15.61
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.64
0.55
0.63
0.63
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.01
8.08
Uganda
0.07
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.74
1.09
1.31
1.31
0.05
0.11
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.02
20.18
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.21
0.21
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
0.14
0.18
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.06
35.59
Mexico
0.08
0.12
0.19
0.19
2.09
2.15
1.97
2.14
0.16
0.25
0.38
0.41
0.03
8.53
0.16
63.45
Burma
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.98
0.93
1.12
1.12
0.50
0.52
0.56
0.56
0.49
0.49
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.48
0.14
29.16
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
Middle East
Sub-Saharan Africa
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
20.40
21.33
20.75
20.74
1.64
1.66
1.71
1.71
33.36
35.40
35.54
35.53
-0.01
-0.02
0.14
0.38
United States
0.44
0.51
0.45
0.44
3.83
3.71
3.67
3.71
1.68
1.89
1.66
1.65
-0.01
-0.36
-0.24
-12.57
Total Foreign
19.96
20.83
20.29
20.29
1.59
1.61
1.67
1.67
31.68
33.51
33.88
33.88
0.00
0.00
0.37
1.11
4.38
4.53
4.70
4.70
3.36
3.45
3.45
3.45
14.71
15.64
16.20
16.20
0.00
0.00
0.56
3.58
India
5.30
6.00
5.26
5.26
0.92
0.98
1.02
1.02
4.90
5.85
5.35
5.35
0.00
0.00
-0.50
-8.55
Pakistan
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.84
7.80
7.80
7.80
0.93
0.95
0.93
0.93
7.32
7.39
7.29
7.29
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-1.29
Nigeria
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.55
1.55
1.55
1.55
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Senegal
1.06
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.97
1.10
1.00
1.00
1.03
1.10
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-9.09
Chad
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.32
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Ghana
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sudan
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.48
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.78
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burkina
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Guinea
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
1.24
1.24
1.24
1.24
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mali
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Malawi
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.27
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Uganda
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.12
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Benin
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.29
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Niger
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
South Africa
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
2.05
2.09
2.18
2.18
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.35
Indonesia
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.67
1.25
1.25
1.25
1.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Burma
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.49
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.25
0.24
0.25
0.25
2.11
1.99
2.10
2.10
0.53
0.49
0.52
0.52
0.00
0.00
0.03
5.97
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.77
1.77
1.77
1.77
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.22
0.27
0.30
0.30
3.80
2.78
3.67
3.67
0.84
0.74
1.10
1.10
0.00
0.00
0.36
49.46
Brazil
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.10
2.47
2.50
2.60
2.60
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.00
0.00
0.01
4.00
Egypt
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
3.17
3.17
3.17
3.17
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.56
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Others
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
2.37
2.34
2.34
2.34
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.14
World
none
China
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southeast Asia
South America
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
22.88
23.24
25.06
26.21
1.38
1.41
1.48
1.49
31.63
32.82
37.21
38.94
1.73
4.64
6.12
18.64
United States
0.79
0.76
0.60
0.59
1.74
1.64
1.59
1.57
1.38
1.24
0.95
0.93
-0.02
-2.43
-0.32
-25.46
Total Foreign
22.09
22.48
24.46
25.62
1.37
1.40
1.48
1.48
30.25
31.58
36.26
38.01
1.75
4.83
6.43
20.38
Russia
5.60
5.55
7.30
7.30
1.15
0.96
1.21
1.32
6.43
5.35
8.80
9.60
0.80
9.09
4.25
79.44
Ukraine
5.00
5.40
4.60
5.80
1.52
1.56
1.85
1.64
7.60
8.40
8.50
9.50
1.00
11.76
1.10
13.10
Moldova
0.23
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.25
1.51
1.60
1.60
0.28
0.38
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.02
4.44
Kazakhstan
0.72
1.10
1.20
1.20
0.51
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.37
0.45
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.05
11.11
Argentina
1.49
1.74
1.88
1.88
1.55
2.11
1.71
1.71
2.30
3.67
3.20
3.20
0.00
0.00
-0.47
-12.81
Uruguay
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.90
1.33
1.50
1.50
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
275.00
Bolivia
43.79
World
none
Former Soviet Union - 12
South America
0.24
0.14
0.16
0.16
1.32
1.07
1.38
1.38
0.31
0.15
0.22
0.22
0.00
0.00
0.07
China
0.96
0.95
0.96
0.96
2.04
2.00
2.08
2.08
1.96
1.90
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
5.26
EU-27
3.90
3.74
4.20
4.16
1.77
1.85
1.93
1.94
6.91
6.92
8.10
8.05
-0.05
-0.62
1.13
16.33
France
0.73
0.70
0.74
0.74
2.34
2.36
2.57
2.57
1.70
1.64
1.90
1.90
0.00
0.00
0.26
15.85
Hungary
0.53
0.50
0.57
0.57
2.35
1.98
2.33
2.33
1.26
0.99
1.33
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.34
34.34
Spain
0.85
0.70
0.84
0.84
1.02
1.27
1.27
1.27
0.87
0.89
1.07
1.07
0.00
0.00
0.18
20.63
Italy
0.12
0.10
0.11
0.11
1.98
2.20
2.20
2.20
0.25
0.22
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.02
9.01
Slovakia
0.08
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.23
1.70
2.36
2.36
0.19
0.15
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
0.06
40.00
India
1.40
0.76
1.00
1.00
0.59
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.82
0.48
0.63
0.63
0.00
0.00
0.16
32.63
Pakistan
0.45
0.45
0.50
0.50
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.50
0.69
0.69
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.07
9.49
Turkey
0.46
0.49
0.49
0.49
1.74
2.06
1.89
1.89
0.80
1.00
0.93
0.93
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-7.50
South Africa
0.40
0.65
0.65
0.65
1.23
1.29
1.31
1.31
0.49
0.83
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.02
2.41
Burma
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Serbia
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
2.35
2.35
2.37
2.37
0.40
0.40
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.02
3.75
Canada
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
1.60
1.60
1.60
1.60
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Australia
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
1.52
1.52
1.36
1.36
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-13.64
Others
0.42
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.92
1.02
1.02
1.02
0.38
0.45
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.00
0.01
1.12
South Asia
January 2012
Area
(Million hectares)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
MMT
Percent
Percent
31.41
33.31
33.47
33.52
1.94
1.81
1.79
1.80
60.98
60.39
59.84
60.28
0.44
0.74
-0.11
-0.18
United States
0.33
0.58
0.43
0.42
2.03
1.92
1.63
1.65
0.67
1.11
0.70
0.70
0.00
0.43
-0.41
-37.20
Total Foreign
31.08
32.73
33.05
33.10
1.94
1.81
1.79
1.80
60.31
59.28
59.15
59.59
0.44
0.74
0.31
0.52
World
none
6.52
6.99
6.75
6.75
3.31
2.96
2.83
2.83
21.55
20.71
19.10
19.10
0.00
0.00
-1.61
-7.76
Germany
1.47
1.49
1.45
1.45
4.29
3.83
2.82
2.75
6.31
5.70
4.10
4.00
-0.10
-2.44
-1.70
-29.80
France
1.48
1.47
1.55
1.55
3.80
3.29
3.41
3.41
5.62
4.82
5.29
5.29
0.00
0.00
0.47
9.84
United Kingdom
0.57
0.64
0.70
0.70
3.35
3.47
3.64
3.79
1.91
2.23
2.55
2.65
0.10
3.92
0.42
18.83
Poland
0.82
0.85
0.81
0.81
3.06
2.63
2.28
2.28
2.51
2.24
1.85
1.85
0.00
0.00
-0.39
-17.26
Czech Republic
0.36
0.37
0.37
0.37
3.18
2.82
2.89
2.89
1.13
1.04
1.08
1.08
0.00
0.00
0.04
3.36
Denmark
0.16
0.17
0.15
0.15
3.90
3.46
3.33
3.33
0.64
0.58
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-13.04
Hungary
0.26
0.26
0.24
0.24
2.23
2.15
2.22
2.22
0.58
0.56
0.53
0.53
0.00
0.00
-0.03
-5.36
Romania
0.44
0.58
0.39
0.39
1.55
1.81
1.88
1.88
0.68
1.05
0.73
0.73
0.00
0.00
-0.33
-30.95
Slovakia
0.17
0.17
0.15
0.15
2.32
1.92
2.43
2.43
0.39
0.32
0.35
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.03
9.29
Sweden
0.10
0.11
0.10
0.10
2.99
2.56
2.82
2.82
0.30
0.28
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.08
Lithuania
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.20
2.17
2.10
2.10
2.10
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Latvia
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.09
2.20
2.31
2.28
2.28
0.21
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.00
0.00
-0.01
-4.65
Austria
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
3.00
3.15
3.33
3.33
0.17
0.17
0.18
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.01
5.88
Finland
0.08
0.16
0.09
0.09
1.57
1.30
1.43
1.43
0.13
0.21
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
-0.07
-35.61
Estonia
0.08
0.10
0.09
0.09
1.66
1.34
1.52
1.52
0.14
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.05
7.28
7.37
7.10
7.10
1.88
1.78
1.76
1.76
13.66
13.10
12.50
12.50
0.00
0.00
-0.60
-4.58
India
6.45
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
6.40
7.00
7.00
7.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Pakistan
0.27
0.27
0.29
0.29
0.85
0.85
0.97
0.97
0.23
0.23
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.05
21.74
Bangladesh
EU-27
China
South Asia
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.74
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.01
2.22
Canada
6.38
6.50
7.47
7.47
2.02
1.97
1.90
1.90
12.89
12.77
14.17
14.17
0.00
0.00
1.39
10.90
Australia
1.71
2.09
1.75
1.80
1.12
1.14
1.43
1.63
1.92
2.38
2.50
2.94
0.44
17.60
0.56
23.43
Ukraine
1.01
0.86
0.85
0.85
1.85
1.70
1.76
1.76
1.87
1.47
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.03
2.04
Russia
0.56
0.61
0.77
0.77
1.20
1.09
1.23
1.23
0.67
0.67
0.95
0.95
0.00
0.00
0.28
41.79
Belarus
0.34
0.31
0.30
0.30
1.80
1.22
1.33
1.33
0.61
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.03
6.95
Paraguay
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.07
1.11
1.59
1.43
1.43
0.04
0.10
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
-1.96
Others
0.24
0.37
0.39
0.39
1.06
0.67
1.09
1.09
0.25
0.25
0.42
0.42
0.00
0.00
0.18
71.43
January 2012
Change in Production
Production
(Million metric tons)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MMT
Percent
MMT
Percent
Oilseed, Copra
Philippines
2.52
2.60
2.60
2.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Indonesia
1.60
1.54
1.48
1.48
0.00
0.00
-0.06
-3.90
India
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.74
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Vietnam
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mexico
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Sri Lanka
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Mozambique
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.88
5.89
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.85
World
Oilseed, Palm Kernel
Indonesia
5.88
6.30
6.80
6.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
7.94
Malaysia
4.52
4.52
4.68
4.68
0.00
0.00
0.16
3.54
Nigeria
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Thailand
0.27
0.26
0.29
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
0.13
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.10
0.09
0.10
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.02
25.00
Cote d'Ivoire
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Cameroon
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Congo (Kinshasa)
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
12.22
12.64
13.35
13.35
0.00
0.00
0.71
5.62
7.63
World
Oil, Palm
Indonesia
22.00
23.60
25.40
25.40
0.00
0.00
1.80
Malaysia
17.76
18.22
18.70
18.70
0.00
0.00
0.48
2.63
Thailand
1.35
1.29
1.45
1.45
0.00
0.00
0.16
12.40
Nigeria
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Colombia
0.77
0.78
0.89
0.89
0.00
0.00
0.10
12.82
0.49
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.03
6.00
Ecuador
0.43
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.04
8.70
Cote d'Ivoire
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Brazil
0.24
0.27
0.28
0.28
0.00
0.00
0.02
7.69
Honduras
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
45.86
47.93
50.57
50.57
0.00
0.00
2.64
5.51
World
January 2012
Area
(Million 1000 HA)
Country / Region
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
Yield
(Kilograms per hectare)
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Change in Production
Production
(Million 480 lb. bales)
Jan
2009/10
Prel.
2010/11
2011/12 Proj.
Dec
Jan
MBales
Percent
Percent
30.14
33.49
35.77
35.73
735
750
751
749
101.68
115.32
123.42
122.84
-0.58
-0.47
7.52
6.52
United States
3.05
4.33
3.99
3.95
871
910
865
865
12.19
18.10
15.83
15.67
-0.15
-0.97
-2.43
-13.42
Total Foreign
27.09
29.16
31.78
31.78
719
726
737
734
89.49
97.22
107.59
107.16
-0.43
-0.40
9.95
10.23
5.30
5.15
5.50
5.50
1,315
1,289
1,326
1,326
32.00
30.50
33.50
33.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
9.84
10.31
11.14
12.20
12.20
486
496
491
482
23.00
25.40
27.50
27.00
-0.50
-1.82
1.60
6.30
3.00
2.90
3.20
3.20
697
661
680
680
9.60
8.80
10.00
10.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
13.64
Uzbekistan
1.30
1.30
1.34
1.34
653
687
682
682
3.90
4.10
4.20
4.20
0.00
0.00
0.10
2.44
Turkmenistan
0.55
0.64
0.58
0.58
582
595
530
530
1.47
1.75
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.00
-0.35
-20.00
Tajikistan
0.17
0.17
0.20
0.20
480
528
544
544
0.38
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.10
25.00
Kazakhstan
0.12
0.13
0.14
0.14
635
461
568
568
0.35
0.28
0.37
0.37
0.00
0.00
0.09
32.73
Burkina
0.42
0.40
0.40
0.40
363
354
381
381
0.70
0.65
0.70
0.70
0.00
0.00
0.05
7.69
Mali
0.25
0.26
0.48
0.48
383
398
363
363
0.44
0.48
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.33
68.42
Zimbabwe
0.38
0.40
0.43
0.43
286
272
295
295
0.50
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.00
0.00
0.08
15.00
Benin
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
423
363
416
416
0.35
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.03
8.33
Cote d'Ivoire
0.22
0.20
0.22
0.22
346
370
421
421
0.35
0.34
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.00
0.09
25.00
Cameroon
0.15
0.14
0.18
0.18
327
428
404
404
0.23
0.28
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.05
18.18
Nigeria
0.40
0.41
0.36
0.36
248
252
242
242
0.45
0.48
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-15.79
Sudan
0.03
0.04
0.09
0.09
403
518
399
399
0.05
0.10
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.07
65.00
Brazil
0.84
1.40
1.40
1.40
1,419
1,400
1,400
1,400
5.45
9.00
9.00
9.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Argentina
0.44
0.61
0.55
0.55
495
459
475
475
1.00
1.28
1.20
1.20
0.00
0.00
-0.08
-5.88
Paraguay
0.02
0.03
0.07
0.07
302
399
342
342
0.03
0.06
0.11
0.11
0.00
0.00
0.06
100.00
Turkey
0.28
0.32
0.48
0.48
1,361
1,429
1,406
1,406
1.75
2.10
3.10
3.10
0.00
0.00
1.00
47.62
Syria
0.17
0.13
0.15
0.15
1,359
1,280
1,306
1,306
1.03
0.74
0.90
0.90
0.00
0.00
0.17
22.45
Iran
0.11
0.12
0.14
0.14
605
635
645
645
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.05
14.29
Australia
0.20
0.59
0.60
0.60
1,932
1,550
1,814
1,814
1.78
4.20
5.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.80
19.05
EU-27
0.26
0.31
0.37
0.37
888
797
942
942
1.07
1.12
1.61
1.61
0.00
0.00
0.49
44.14
Greece
0.20
0.24
0.30
0.30
1,023
816
980
980
0.94
0.90
1.35
1.35
0.00
0.00
0.45
50.00
Spain
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.07
424
715
778
778
0.12
0.21
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.04
20.77
Egypt
0.12
0.16
0.22
0.22
790
843
792
792
0.43
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.20
33.33
Mexico
0.08
0.12
0.19
0.19
1,343
1,374
1,318
1,375
0.48
0.73
1.15
1.20
0.05
4.35
0.47
63.93
Others
1.82
1.94
2.14
2.14
291
304
320
322
2.43
2.71
3.14
3.16
0.02
0.64
0.45
16.63
World
none
China
South Asia
India
Pakistan
Former Soviet Union - 12
Sub-Saharan Africa
South America
Middle East
January 2012
TABLE 18
The table below presents a record of the differences between the January projection and the final Estimate.
Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are
9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. The average difference
between the January projection and the final estimate is 3.3 million tons, ranging from 0.0 million to 8.3 million
tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 21 times and above 9 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND
REGION
Root mean
square error
90 percent
confidence
interval
Average
Percent
Smallest
Largest
Years
Below
Above
final
final
WHEAT
World
0.7
1.2
3.3
0.1
8.3
21
U.S.
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.3
12
Foreign
0.8
1.4
3.3
0.1
8.3
21
World
1.3
2.2
9.6
0.0
23.6
21
U.S.
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.0
4.6
13
Foreign
1.8
3.0
9.4
0.3
26.3
20
10
World
1.8
3.0
4.9
0.0
13.9
24
U.S.
1.8
3.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
12
Foreign
1.8
3.0
4.9
0.1
13.9
25
World
3.4
5.8
4.4
0.0
22.4
19
11
U.S.
1.5
2.5
0.6
0.0
2.5
12
13
Foreign
5.9
10.0
4.5
0.2
22.6
19
11
COARSE GRAINS 2/
RICE (Milled)
SOYBEANS
COTTON
World
2.6
4.4
1.8
0.0
5.4
19
10
U.S.
0.9
1.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
11
18
Foreign
3.1
5.3
1.8
0.0
5.7
21
-------Million bushels-------
UNITED STATES
CORN
0.5
0.8
13
148
SORGHUM
1.2
2.0
53
BARLEY
0.5
0.9
11
12
OATS
0.2
0.4
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2009/10. Final is defined as the first November estimates following the
marketing year.
2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
January 2012
January 2012