Subject.

Human, environment and sustainable development

Lecture 4. People’s demographic behaviour.

1.Population Growth & Regulation:

Human Population Growth: A Case Study

Humans have a large impact on the global environment: Our population
has grown explosively, along with our use of energy and resources.
Earth - 5 Billion Years
Multi-cell Biota - 600 Million Years
Human Beings ~ 2 Million Years
Human Population Growth into Billions - Last 200 years
The world population declined by 25 per cent when the plague known as
the Black Death swept across Asia and Europe during the 14th century, but
it quickly returned to its former numbers during the following century.
People in Europe were feeling the stress of a population at the limits of its
carrying capacity, but the situation changed as the more powerful
European nations embarked on worldwide colonialism and trade during the
16th century. The supply of resources increased Europe’s carrying
capacity, and the European population began to grow.

Our use of energy and resources has grown even more rapidly.
From 1860 to 1991, human population quadrupled in size, and energy
consumption increased 93-fold.
By the 19th century, urbanization and improved survival of children made
large families less necessary. Birth rates started to decline as people
adopted various methods of limiting family size. The populations of
industrialized nations continued to grow rapidly through the 19th and most
of the 20th centuries. However, their internally generated population growth
was nearly zero by the end of the 20th century. The populations of some
industrialized nations continue to grow primarily due to migration from other
countries.
Population ‘ageing’ has recently become a major issue in industrialized
nations. There is a change from a rapidly growing population with a high
percentage of young people to a population that is growing slowly or not at
all with a high percentage of older people. ‘Ageing’ is well underway in
Japan, it is beginning in Europe and North America, and within a few
decades it will become a major issue in developing world countries that
reduce their population growth.
Human population reached 6.8 billion in 2010, more than double the
number of people in 1960.
Most of the world’s population growth is now in the developing world. Large
numbers are migrating from crowded parts of the developing world to seek
better economic opportunities in North America, Europe and Australia.
 Current world population -7,593,766,688
http://countrymeters.info/en/World

[2]
Population

Years
Passe Year Billion
d
- 1800 1
127 1927 2
33 1960 3
14 1974 4
13 1987 5
12 1999 6
12 2011 7
14 2025* 8
18 2043* 9
40 2083* 10

* UNFPA
United Nations Population Fund
estimate 31.10.2011

Growth rates of the world's most populous countries

Population Population Growth (%)

Rank Country
2010 1990 1990–2010

World 6,895,889,000 5,306,425,000 30.0%

1 China 1,341,335,000 1,145,195,000 17.1%

2 India 1,224,614,000 873,785,000 40.2%

3 United States 310,384,000 253,339,000 22.5%

4 Indonesia 239,871,000 184,346,000 30.1%

5 Brazil 194,946,000 149,650,000 30.3%

6 Pakistan 173,593,000 111,845,000 55.3%

7 Nigeria 158,423,000 97,552,000 62.4%

8 Bangladesh 148,692,000 105,256,000 41.3%

9 Russia 142,958,000 148,244,000 -3.6%

1
Japan 128,057,000 122,251,000 4.7%
0

Below are the key figures for the world population in 2017:

148,779,660 live births

58,619,319 deaths
3,821,873,637 males as of 31 December 2017
3,755,077,748 females as of 31 December 2017
4,091,553,748 people live in urban areas (54 % of total world population)
3,485,397,637 people live in rural areas (46 % of total world population)

What’s Behind Population Growth

z Three Factors
y Fertility
y Infant Mortality
y Longevity
y Animal Domestication and Agriculture
y Provided for a few to feed many
z Industrial Revolution
y Growth of Cities and Infrastructure
z Water
z Energy
z Transportation
y Increased Productivity
y Nutrition
y Sanitation
y Medicine
Predicted Decrease in Growth of Population
Ecological footprint: Total area of productive ecosystems required to
support a population. Uses data on agricultural productivity, production of
goods, resource use, population size, and pollution. The area required to
support these activities is then estimated.

****Population: 6.6 billion, a 40% overshoot of carrying capacity.

One of the ecological maxims is: “No population can increase in size
forever."
The limits imposed by a finite planet restrict a feature of all species: A
capacity for rapid population growth
A population can be characterized by its age structure—the proportion of
the population in each age class.
Age structure influences how fast a population will grow.
If there are many people of reproductive age (15 to 30), it will grow rapidly.
A population with many people older than 55 will grow more slowly.

Third world countries exhibit rapid growth; Modern economies are

showing stabilization in growth (zero growth) or even negative growth
Effects of Density
Population size can be determined by density-dependent and density-
independent factors.
Under ideal conditions, λ > 1 for all populations.
But conditions rarely remain ideal and λ fluctuates over time.
Density-independent factors
Effects on birth and death rates are independent of the number of
individuals in the population:
Temperature and precipitation, catastrophes such as floods or hurricanes.
Density-dependent factors: Birth, death, and dispersal rates change as
the density of the population changes.
As density increases, birth rates often decrease, death rates increase, and
dispersal (emigration) increases, all of which tend to decrease population
size.
Population regulation: Density-dependent factors cause population to
increase when density is low and decrease when density

is high.
Ultimately, food, space, or other resources are in short supply and
population size decreases.
Density-independent factors can have large effects on population size, but
do not regulate population size.

2. Human migration
Hypothesized map of human migration based on Mitochondrial DNA
Human migration denotes any movement by human
beings from one locality to another, often over long distances or
in large groups. Humans are known to have migrated extensively
throughout prehistory and human history. The movement of
populations in modern times has continued under the form of
both voluntary migration within one's region, country, or beyond,
and involuntary migration (which includes trafficking in human
beings and ethnic cleansing). The people who migrate are called
migrants, or, more specifically, emigrants, immigrants, or settlers,
depending on historical setting, circumstance, and perspective.
Human migrations, initiated for whatever reason, have affected
the grand epochs in history, changing forever the demographic
landscape of lands throughout the world, bringing, on some
occasions, innovation and mutual benefits, and on others
destruction and suffering. While social scientists and historians
look for external causes for these happenings, including climate
change and political or religious oppression, religious scholars and
people of faith regard many such events as the playing out
of God's providence, bringing humankind ever closer to a time
when human beings fill the earth and live as one family in peace
and harmony.
Types of migrations
There are two main types of migrations: Domestic and
international. In domestic migration people move within their
homeland, be it from one town to the next or across the country.
This may take the form of moving from one level of density to
another such as rural to urban (or vice versa).
International migration involves crossing international borders.
International migration can occur over relatively short distances
such as that in between the member states of the European
Union or can involve moves to entirely different continents such
as from Asia to Africa.
Migration is generally considered a permanent action, although
some people migrate to other places for rather long periods of
time (months or years) rather than permanently.

History
Human migration has taken place at all times and in the greatest
variety of circumstances. They have
involved tribal, national, class, and individual levels. Causes have
been climatic, political, economic, religious, or simply for love of
adventure. Its causes and results are fundamental for the study
of ethnology, of political and social history, and of political
economy.
The pressures of human migrations, whether as outright conquest
or by slow cultural infiltration and resettlement, have affected the
grand epochs in history, such as the fall of the Western Roman
Empire; under the form of colonization, migration has transformed
the world, as for example in the settlements of Australia and the
Americas.
Early migrations
Historical migration of human populations began with the
movement of Homo erectus out of Africa across Eurasia about a
million years ago. Homo sapiens appears to have colonized all of
Africa about 150 millennia ago, moved out of Africa some 80
millennia ago, and spread across Eurasia and to Australia before
40 millennia ago. Migration to the Americas took place about 20
to 15 millennia ago, and by two millennia ago, most of the Pacific
Islands were colonized. Later population movements notably
include the Neolithic revolution, Indo-European expansion, and
the Early Medieval Great Migrations including Turkic expansion.
The Age of Exploration and European Colonialism led to an
accelerated pace of migration since Early Modern times.
Twentieth century

Net migration rates for 2006: positive (blue) and negative (orange)
Between 1846 and 1940, mass migrations occurred world wide.
The size and speed of transnational migratory movements
became unprecedented. Some 55 millions of migrants moved
from Europe to America, and an additional 2.5 million moved from
Asia to America. Of this transatlantic migrations, 65 percent went
to the United States. Other major receiving countries
were Argentina, Canada, Brazil, and Cuba.
During this same period similar large numbers of people migrated
over large distances within Asia. Southeastern Asia received 50
million migrants, mainly from India and south China. North Asia—
Manchuria, Siberia, Central Asia, and Japan together—received
another 50 million. Less is known about exact numbers of the
migrations from and within Africa in this period, but Africa
experienced a small net immigration between 1850 and 1950,
from a variety of origins.
Transnational labor migration reached a peak of three million
migrants per year in the early twentieth century. Italy, Norway,
Ireland, and the Quongdong region of China were regions with
especially high emigration rates during these years. These large
migration flows influenced the process of nation state formation
in many ways. Immigration restrictions have been developed, as
well as diaspora cultures and myths that reflect the importance of
migration to the foundation of certain nations, like the American
melting pot. The transnational labor migration fell to a lower level
from the 1930s to the 1960s and then rebounded.
The twentieth century also experienced an increase in migratory
flows caused by war and politics, with large numbers
of refugees feeling their homelands that had been taken over by
factions hostile to their ethnicity or religion. Muslims moved from
the Balkans to Turkey, while Christians moved the other way,
during the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. 400,000 Jews moved
to Palestine in the early twentieth century. The Russian Civil War
caused some 3 million Russians, Poles, and Germans to migrate
out of the Soviet Union. World War II and decolonization also
caused migrations.
Causes
The causes of migration can be seen as a series of push and pull
factors—those factors which either forcefully push someone into
migration or attract them. Push and pull factors are usually
considered as north and south poles on a magnet.
Push factors
A push factor is a forceful factor, and a factor which relates to the
country the person is migrating from. It is generally a problem
which results in people wanting to leave. Different types of push
factors inclued:
 Poor medical care
 Not enough jobs
 Few opportunities
 Primitive conditions
 Political fear
 Fear of torture and mistreatment
 Not being able to practice religion
 Loss of wealth
 Natural disasters (including changes in climate)
Pull factors
A pull factor is something concerning the country a person
migrates to. It is generally a good thing that attracts people to a
certain place.
 Chances of getting a job
 Better living standards
 Enjoyment
 Education
 Better medical care
 Security
 Family links
Effects
Migration, like any other process, shapes many fields of life.
These effects, which have both advantages and disadvantages,
include:
 Changes in population distribution: Human migration has had
a significant effect on world geography, contributing to the
development of separate cultures, the diffusion of cultures,
and the complex mix of cultures and multi-cultural
populations found in many parts of of the world.
 Mixing of different cultures and races: This has often led to
negative social behaviors–tensions in society between
majorities and minorities, followed often by local
struggles, racism and racial discrimination. Increases in
criminality may also result.[4] However, effects in different
societies vary. There are also some positive cultural effects of
migration, for example exchange of cultural experience and
new knowledge.
 Demographic consequences: Since migration is selective of
particular age groups, migrants are mostly young and
productive. This can cause a demographic crisis—population
aging, that in turn can be followed by economic problems (a
shrinking economically active population has to finance an
extending inactive population).
 Economic results, which are of the greatest importance for
the development of countries.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4703222/
http://www.austincc.edu/akeddy/eeb_sg_u3

http://schoolworkhelper.net/population-growth-regulation-geometric-logistic-
exponential/