Eofdm Conference 2013 - de Jong Landing Performance

Are Our Landings Safe?
An analytical approach to
landing performance
risk assessments
EOFDM
Cologne
January 2013
1
Are Our Landings Safe? - Version 1.01 23-01-2013
Transition to Risk Based Safety Assurance
• Need for a sensible representation of risk

• Need to look for “small signals”
• Wish to use (much) more data from operation
2
Landing Phases
Spoilers Deployed
Brakes Applied
Ground Idle
Derotated
Touchdown
Stopped
Air Distance Transition Full Braking Distance Remaining
3
Sensible Representation of Risk (Bowtie)
4
Runway Overrun Risk
• First attempt at “filling in” all bow tie elements
• We need “something” for:
– Flight Crew Planning
– Landing Manoeuvre
– Touchdown Location
– Touchdown Speed
– Remaining Stopping Distance
– EGPWS intervention rates
simple
– Go-Around Rates
– Etc. etc.
• For all flights!
5
Airport data
Data collection QRH
Aircraft Flaps Airport Touchd. Touchd. Touchd. 60kts Rwy Planned Actual Distanc
Runway location Mass speed location state QRH-LD QRH-LD e 60-0
01001100 kts
00110110 B737- 30 ESGG 602 53.27 138 1714 Good 1512 2088 242
11100001 700 03
11110001 B737- 40 EHAM 611 53.6 112 1751 Dry 1780 1615 121
700 18C
FDM B737- 30 LFPG 680 59.7 148 2473 Dry 2094 2159 121
800 27R
data
B737- 30 LHBP 704 59.2 131 2864 Dry 2263 2178 121
800 13R
B737- 30 EHAM 555 62.4 125 1816 Dry 1660 1490 121
900 22
METAR Airport Weather data
Data Ware House

2 2
dVGS T − 2 ρVIASC DS − µ(W − 2 ρVIASC LS) − Wφ
1 1
=
dt W/g
6
Safety Performance Indicators
• Flight Crew Planning
– QRH CLD versus LDA
• Touchdown Location/Consumed Safety Margin

– With respect to threshold and LDA
• Touchdown Speed
– With respect to VREF
• Landing Manoeuvre
– QRH CLD for actual TD location/speed versus LDA
• Remaining Stopping Distance

– 60 kts GS Location + Max. Manual Braking
• Criticality categories HIGH MED LOW
7
Risk Analysis Based On SPI’s
A/C Flaps Airport Bra Actual Planned TD loc TD Mass TD speed 60kts Rwy Distance Rem.
Rwy/ kes QRH-LD QRH-LD location state 60-0 kts LD
LDA unfactor unfactor (META
ed ed R)
B737- EGPD 16
40 3 1564 m 1285 m 666 m 48400 KG 111 kts 1265 m Good 457 m 230 m
700 1953 m
B737- EGNT 25
30 2 2114 m 1904 m 600 m 55300 KG 127 kts 1372 m Dry 238 m 514 m
700 2125 m
EHAM
B737-
30 18R 2 2345 m 1887 m 493 m 63900 KG 159 kts 2405 m Good 109.4 m 687 m
900W
3530 m
EHAM
B737- 1103
30 18R 1 2974 m 2261 m 58500 KG 137 kts 2563 m Dry 235 m 642 m
900W m
3530 m
B737- LIML 36
30 2 1846 m 1676 m 556 54540 KG 131 kts 1878 m Dry 221 m 342 m
900W 2442 m
Planning Criticality Air Distance/ TD Speed criticality Landing Manouvre Overrun Criticality
(QRH) Vs LDA Consumed Safety (FDM) Criticality (FDM+QRH+
Margin Criticality (QRH+FDM) vs LDA Engineering)
Vs. LDA
LO MED LO MED MED
HI LO LO HI LO
LO LO HI LO LO
LO MED LO LO LO
LO LO LO LO MED
8
Planning Criticality Air Distance/ TD Speed criticality Landing Manouvre Overrun Criticality
(QRH) Vs LDA Consumed Safety (FDM) Criticality (FDM+QRH+
Margin Criticality (QRH+FDM) vs LDA Engineering)
Vs. LDA
LO MED LO MED MED
HI LO LO HI LO
LO LO HI LO LO
LO MED LO LO LO
LO LO LO LO MED
9
Safety Intelligence Consolidation
Questions to be answered:
• What are the correlations between the criticalities
(Which situations eventually may lead to overruns)
• How to connect the overrun SPI’s to the barriers in the
Landing Performance Bowtie
• Which parameters, trends and/or abrupt changes in
trends determine the barrier performance
• In case of (abrupt changes in) trend: Which barriers in
the bowtie are playing a role
• In which barriers do we invest our $$$ to improve
safety (In order of effectiveness)
• Each barrier has an owner within KLM who is
responsible for corrective action
10
Name of presentation - Version 1.01 dd-mm-2008
Runway Conditions
The following speed averaged aircraft braking actions
are used (Boeing methodology)
• Dry runway -> Type dependent µ ≈ 0.38 – 0.43

• Braking Action GOOD (wet runway) µ = 0.2
• Braking Action MEDIUM µ = 0.1
• Braking Action POOR µ = 0.05
12
Safety Performance Indicators
• Flight Crew Planning
(QRH LD versus LDA)
> 30% margin LOW
15% < margin < 30% MEDIUM
< 15% margin HIGH
• Touchdown Location/ Consumed Safety Margin
– TD < 600 m OR CSM<30% LOW
– 600 m < TD < 900 m or 15%<CSM<30% MEDIUM
– TD > 900 m OR CSM >15% HIGH
• Touchdown Speed
VTD < Vref+10 kts LOW
Vref+10 < VTD < Vref+20 MEDIUM
VTD > Vref+20 HIGH
• Landing Manoeuvre
(QRH LD for actual TD location/speed versus LDA)
> 30% margin LOW
15% < margin < 30% MEDIUM
< 15% margin HIGH
• Remaining Stopping Distance
(60 kts GS Location + Max. Manual Braking)
RSD > 500 LOW
200 < RSD < 500 MEDIUM
RSD < 200 HIGH
13

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Are Our Landings Safe?

• Need for a sensible representation of risk

Data collection QRH

METAR Airport Weather data

Data Ware House

• Touchdown Location/Consumed Safety Margin

• Remaining Stopping Distance

• Criticality categories HIGH MED LOW

LO MED LO MED MED

LO MED LO MED MED

• Dry runway -> Type dependent µ ≈ 0.38 – 0.43

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