Ken Black QA 5th Chapter17 Solution

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers
Chapter 17
Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
This chapter discusses the general use of forecasting in business, several tools that are
available for making business forecasts, and the nature of time series data, thereby
enabling you to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Gain a general understanding time series forecasting techniques.

Understand the four possible components of time-series data.
Understand stationary forecasting techniques.
Understand how to use regression models for trend analysis.
Learn how to decompose time-series data into their various elements and to
forecast by using decomposition techniques
Understand the nature of autocorrelation and how to test for it.
Understand autoregression in forecasting.
CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY

Time series analysis attempts to determine if there is something inherent in the
history of a variable that can be captured in a way that will help business analysts forecast
the future values for the variable.
The first section of the chapter contains a general discussion about the various
possible components of time-series data. It creates the setting against which the chapter
later proceeds into trend analysis and seasonal effects. In addition, two measurements of
forecasting error are presented so that students can measure the error of forecasts
produced by the various techniques and begin to compare the merits of each.
A full gamut of time series forecasting techniques has been presented

beginning with the most nave models and progressing through averaging models and
exponential smoothing. An attempt is made in the section on exponential smoothing to
show the student, through algebra, why it is called by that name. Using the derived
equations and a few selected values for alpha, the student is shown how past values and
forecasts are smoothed in the prediction of future values. The more advanced smoothing
techniques are briefly introduced in later sections but are explained in much greater detail
on WileyPLUS.
Trend is solved for next using the time periods as the predictor variable. In this
chapter both linear and quadratic trends are explored and compared. There is a brief
introduction to Holts two-parameter exponential smoothing method that includes trend.
A more detailed explanation of Holts method is available on WileyPLUS. The trend
analysis section is placed earlier in the chapter than seasonal effects because finding
seasonal effects makes more sense when there are no trend effects in the data or the trend
effect has been removed.
Section 17.4 includes a rather classic presentation of time series decomposition
only it is done on a smaller set of data so as not to lose the reader. It was felt that there
may be a significant number of instructors who want to show how a time series of data
can be broken down into the components of trend, cycle, and seasonality. This text
assumes a multiplicative model rather than an additive model. The main example used
throughout this section is a database of 20 quarters of actual data on Household
Appliances. A graph of these data is presented both before and after deseasonalization so
that the student can visualize what happens when the seasonal effects are removed. First,
4-quarter centered moving averages are computed which dampen out the seasonal and
irregular effects leaving trend and cycle. By dividing the original data by these 4-quarter
centered moving averages (trend cycle), the researcher is left with seasonal effects and
irregular effects. By casting out the high and low values and averaging the seasonal
effects for each quarter, the irregular effects are removed.
In regression analysis involving data over time, autocorrelation can be a problem.
Because of this, section 17.5 contains a discussion on autocorrelation and autoregression.
The Durbin-Watson test is presented as a mechanism for testing for the presence of
autocorrelation. Several possible ways of overcoming the autocorrelation problem are
presented such as the addition of independent variables, transforming variables, and
autoregressive models.
The last section in this chapter is a classic presentation of Index Numbers. This
section is essentially a shortened version of an entire chapter on Index Numbers. It
includes most of the traditional topics of simple index numbers, unweighted aggregate
price index numbers, weighted price index numbers, Laspeyres price indexes, and
Paasche price indexes.
CHAPTER OUTLINE
17.1 Introduction to Forecasting
Time Series Components
The Measurement of Forecasting Error
Error
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Square Error (MSE)
17.2 Smoothing Techniques
Nave Forecasting Models
Averaging Models
Simple Averages
Moving Averages
Weighted Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
17.3 Trend Analysis
Linear Regression Trend Analysis
Regression Trend Analysis Using Quadratic Models
Holts Two-Parameter Exponential Smoothing Method
17.4 Seasonal Effects
Decomposition
Finding Seasonal Effects with the Computer
Winters Three-Parameter Exponential Smoothing Method
17.5 Autocorrelation and Autoregression
Autocorrelation
Ways to Overcome the Autocorrelation Problem
Addition of Independent Variables
Transforming Variables
Autoregression
17.6 Index Numbers
Simple Index Numbers
Unweighted Aggregate Price Indexes
Weighted Price Index Numbers
Laspeyres Price Index
Paasche Price Index
Chapter 15: Forecasting and Time Series
KEY TERMS
Autocorrelation
Autoregression
Averaging Models
Cycles
Cyclical Effects
Decomposition
Deseasonalized Data
Durbin-Watson Test
Error of an Individual Forecast
Exponential Smoothing
First-Difference Approach
Forecasting
Forecasting Error
Index Number
Irregular Fluctuations
Laspeyres Price Index
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Mean Squared Error (MSE)
Moving Average
Nave Forecasting Methods
Paasche Price Index
Seasonal Effects
Serial Correlation
Simple Average
Simple Average Model
Simple Index Number
Smoothing Techniques
Stationary
Time-Series Data
Trend
Unweighted Aggregate Price
Index Number
Weighted Aggregate Price
Index Number
Weighted Moving Average
SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 17

17.1
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Total
MAD =
MSE =
e
2.30
1.60
-1.40
1.10
0.30
-0.90
-1.90
-2.10
0.70
-0.30
2.30
1.60
1.40
1.10
0.30
0.90
1.90
2.10
0.70
12.30
no . forecasts
no . forecasts
12 .30
9
= 1.367
20 .43
9
= 2.27
e2
5.29
2.56
1.96
1.21
0.09
0.81
3.61
4.41
0.49
20.43
17.2
Period Value F
1
202
2
191 202
3
173 192
4
169 181
5
171 174
6
175 172
7
182 174
8
196 179
9
204 189
10
219 198
11
227 211
Total
MAD =
MSE =
17.3
no . forecasts
no . forecasts
121
361
144
9
9
64
289
225
441
256
1919
125 .00
10
1,919
10
= 12.5
= 191.9
e2
19.4 16.6 2.8

23.6 19.1 4.5
24.0 22.0 2.0
26.8 24.8 2.0
29.2 25.9 3.3
35.5 28.6 6.9
Total
21.5
2.8
4.5
2.0
2.0
3.3
6.9
21.5
7.84
20.25
4.00
4.00
10.89
47.61
94.59
MAD =
MSE =
Year
1
e2
-11
11
-19
19
-12
12
-3
3
3
3
8
8
17
17
15
15
21
21
16
16
35 125
Period Value F
1
2
3
4
5
6
17.4
e
2 . 51
= 3.583
=
N o F. o r e c a s t6 s
e2
9 . 54 9
= 15.765
=
N o F. o r e c a s t6 s
Acres
140,000
Forecast
-
e
-
e2
-
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
141,730
134,590
131,710
131,910
134,250
135,220
131,020
120,640
115,190
114,510
Total
MAD =
140,000
141,038
137,169
133,894
132,704
133,632
134,585
132,446
125,362
119,259
1730
-6448
-5459
-1984
1546
1588
-3565
-11806
-10172
-4749
-39,319
1730
6448
5459
1984
1546
1588
3565
11806
10172
4749
49047
2,992,900
41,576,704
29,800,681
3,936,256
2,390,116
2,521,744
12,709,225
139,381,636
103,469,584
22,553,001
361,331,847
e
4 , 90 4 7
= 4,904.7
=
N o F. o r e c a s t 1 s 0
e2
3 6, 3 1 3, 8 1 4 7
MSE =
= 36,133,184.7
=
N o F. o r e c a s t s 1 0
17.5
a.)
b.)
4-mo. mov. avg.

44.75
52.75
61.50
64.75
70.50
81.00
error
14.25
13.25
9.50
21.25
30.50
16.00
4-mo. wt. mov. avg. error

53.25
5.75
56.375
9.625
62.875
8.125
67.25
18.75
76.375
24.625
89.125
7.875
c.)
difference in errors
14.25 - 5.75 = 8.5
3.626
1.375
2.5
5.875
8.125
In each time period, the four-month moving average produces greater errors of
forecast than the four-month weighted moving average.
17.6
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Value
211
228
236
241
242
227
217
203
F( =.1)
Error
211
213
215
218
220
221
221
23
26
24
7
-4
-18
F( =.8)
211
225
234
240
242
230
220
Error
11
7
2
-15
-13
-17
Difference
12
19
22
22
9
0
Using alpha of .1 produced forecasting errors that were larger than those using
alpha = .8 for the first three forecasts. For the next two forecasts (periods 6
and 7), the forecasts using alpha = .1 produced smaller errors. Each exponential
smoothing model produced nearly the same amount of error in forecasting the
value for period 8. There is no strong argument in favor of either model.
17.7
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Value
9.4
8.2
7.9
9.0
9.8
11.0
10.3
9.5
9.1
=.3
9.4
9.0
8.7
8.8
9.1
9.7
9.9
9.8
Error
-1.2
-1.1
0.3
1.0
1.9
0.6
-0.4
-0.7
=.7
9.4
8.6
8.1
8.7
9.5
10.6
10.4
9.8
Error
-1.2
-0.7
0.9
1.1
1.5
-0.3
-0.9
-0.7
3-mo.avg. Error
8.5
8.4
8.9
9.9
10.4
10.3
0.5
1.4
1.1
0.4
-0.9
-1.2
17.8
17.9
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Orders
2512.7
2739.9
2874.9
2934.1
2865.7
2978.5
3092.4
3356.8
3607.6
3749.3
3952.0
3949.0
4137.0
(a)
F(a)
(c)
e(a)
(b)
F(b)
2785.46
2878.62
2949.12
3045.50
3180.20
3356.92
3551.62
3722.94
193.04
213.78
407.68
562.10
569.10
595.08
397.38
414.06
2852.36
2915.49
3000.63
3161.94
3364.41
3550.76
3740.97
3854.64
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
No.Issues
332
694
518
222
209
172
366
512
667
571
575
865
609
F( =.2)
332.0
404.4
427.1
386.1
350.7
315.0
325.2
362.6
423.5
453.0
477.4
554.9
362.0
113.6
205.1
177.1
178.7
51.0
186.8
304.4
147.5
122.0
387.6
54.1
e = 2289.9
For = .2, MAD =
2289 .9
= 190.8
12
For = .9, MAD =
2023 .0
= 168.6
12
= .9 produces a smaller mean average error.
F( =.9)
332.0
657.8
532.0
253.0
213.4
176.1
347.0
495.5
649.9
578.9
575.4
836.0
(c)
e(b)
126.14
176.91
356.17
445.66
384.89
401.24
208.03
282.36
362.0
139.8
310.0
44.0
41.4
189.9
165.0
171.5
78.9
3.9
289.6
227.0
e =2023.0
17.10 Simple Regression Trend Model:
= 37,969 + 9899.1 Period
F = 1603.11 (p = .000), R2 = .988, adjusted R2 = .988,

se = 6,861, t = 40.04 (p = .000)
Quadratic Regression Trend Model:
= 35,769 + 10,473 Period - 26.08 Period2
F = 772.71 (p = .000), R2 = .988, adjusted R2 = .987

se = 6,988, tperiod = 9.91 (p = .000), tperiodsq = -0.56 (p = .583)
The simple linear regression trend model is superior, the period2 variable is not a
significant addition to the model.
17.11 Trend line:

R2 = 83.0%
Members = 148,141.8 66.0143 Year

se = 190.1374
F = 92.82, reject the null hypothesis.
Y ear Line Fit Plot
17500
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
1980
1985
1990
1995
Y ear
2000
2005
10
17.12
Y ear Line Fit Plot
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0
10
Year
Trend Model:
Loans = 809.2611 + 23.18333 Year
R2 = 33.0
adjusted R2 = 23.4
se = 96.80
t = 1.86 (p = .106)
F = 3.44 (p = .1.06)
Quadratic Model:
Loans = 561.1738 + 158.5037 Year 13.5320 Year2
R2 = 90.6
adjusted R2 = 87.5
tyear = 6.93 (p = .0004)
tyearsq = -6.07 (p = .000)
F = 28.95 (p = .0008)
se = 39.13
The graph indicates a quadratic fit rather than a linear fit. The quadratic model
produced an R2 = 90.6 compared to R2 = 33.0 for linear trend indicating a much
better fit for the quadratic model. In addition, the standard error of the estimate
drops from 96.80 to 39.13 with the quadratic model along with the t values
becoming significant.
11
17.13
Month
Jan.(yr. 1)
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Broccoli
12-Mo. Mov.Tot.
2-Yr.Tot.
TC
SI
3282.8
136.78
93.30
3189.7
132.90
90.47
3085.0
128.54
92.67
3034.4
126.43
98.77
2996.7
124.86
111.09
2927.9
122.00
100.83
2857.8
119.08
113.52
2802.3
116.76
117.58
2750.6
114.61
112.36
2704.8
112.70
92.08
2682.1
111.75
99.69
2672.7
111.36
102.73
132.5
164.8
141.2
133.8
138.4
150.9
1655.2
July
146.6
1627.6
Aug.
146.9
1562.1
Sept.
138.7
1522.9
Oct.
128.0
Nov.
112.4
Dec.
121.0
Jan.(yr. 2)
104.9
1511.5
1485.2
1442.7
1415.1
Feb.
99.3
1387.2
Mar.
102.0
1363.4
Apr.
122.4
1341.4
May
112.1
1340.7
June
108.4
1332.0
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
119.0
119.0
114.9
106.0
111.7
112.3
12
17.14
Month
Ship
12m tot
2yr tot
TC
SI
TCI
Jan(Yr1) 1891
1952.50
2042.72
Feb
1986
1975.73
2049.87
Mar
1987
1973.78
2057.02
Apr
1987
1972.40
2064.17
May
2000
1976.87
2071.32
June
2082
1982.67
2078.46
23822
July
1878
47689
1987.04
94.51 1970.62
2085.61
94.49
47852
1993.83 104.02 2011.83
2092.76
96.13
48109
2004.54 104.06 2008.47
2099.91
95.65
48392
2016.33 101.42 1969.76
2107.06
93.48
48699
2029.13
95.85 2024.57
2114.20
95.76
49126
2046.92
90.92 2002.80
2121.35
94.41
49621
2067.54
93.64 1998.97
2128.50
93.91
49989
2082.88 101.01 2093.12
2135.65
98.01
50308
2096.17 101.42 2111.85
2142.80
98.56
50730
2113.75 100.82 2115.35
2149.94
98.39
51132
2130.50 101.53 2137.99
2157.09
99.11
51510
2146.25 109.31 2234.07
2164.24 103.23
51973
2165.54
2171.39 101.92
52346
2181.08 101.37 2144.73
2178.54
98.45
52568
2190.33 103.55 2183.71
2185.68
99.91
23867
Aug
2074
Sept
2086
Oct
2045
Nov
1945
Dec
1861
23985
24124
24268
24431
24695
Jan(Yr2) 1936
24926
Feb
2104
25063
Mar
2126
25245
Apr
2131
25485
May
2163
25647
June
2346
July
2109
25863
97.39 2213.01
26110
Aug
2211
Sept
2268
26236
26332
Oct
2285
Nov
2107
Dec
2077
13
52852
2202.17 103.76 2200.93
2192.83
100.37
53246
2218.58
94.97 2193.19
2199.98
99.69
53635
2234.79
92.94 2235.26
2207.13
101.27
53976
2249.00
97.07 2254.00
2214.28
101.79
54380
2265.83
98.42 2218.46
2221.42
99.87
54882
2286.75
97.17 2207.21
2228.57
99.04
55355
2306.46 100.54 2301.97
2235.72
102.96
55779
2324.13 101.93 2341.60
2242.87
104.40
56186
2341.08 108.03 2408.34
2250.02
107.04
56539
2355.79
96.23 2378.80
2257.17
105.39
56936
2372.33 103.57 2383.35
2264.31
105.26
57504
2396.00 105.34 2430.19
2271.46
106.99
58075
2419.79 103.40 2409.94
2278.61
105.76
58426
2434.42
95.05 2408.66
2285.76
105.38
58573
2440.54
93.30 2450.50
2292.91
106.87
58685
2445.21
95.53 2411.98
2300.05
104.87
58815
2450.63 100.95 2461.20
2307.20
106.67
58806
2450.25 103.91 2529.06
2314.35
109.28
58793
2449.71 104.75 2547.15
2321.50
109.72
58920
2455.00 100.73 2444.40
2328.65
104.97
59018
2459.08 104.59 2449.29
2335.79
104.86
59099
2462.46
94.86 2451.21
2342.94
104.62
59141
2464.21 102.18 2442.53
2350.09
103.93
26520
26726
26909
Jan(Yr3) 2183
27067
Feb
2230
27313
Mar
2222
27569
Apr
2319
27786
May
2369
27993
June
2529
28193
July
2267
Aug
2457
Sept
2524
Oct
2502
Nov
2314
28346
28590
28914
29161
29265
Dec
2277
29308
Jan(Yr4) 2336
29377
Feb
2474
29438
Mar
2546
29368
Apr
2566
29425
May
2473
June
2572
July
2336
29495
29523
29576
Aug
2518
29565
Sept
2454
Oct
2559
Nov
2384
Dec
2305
14
59106
2462.75
99.64 2362.80
2357.24
100.24
58933
2455.54 104.21 2464.84
2364.39
104.25
58779
2449.13
97.34 2481.52
2371.53
104.64
58694
2445.58
94.25 2480.63
2378.68
104.29
58582
2440.92
97.87 2466.70
2385.83
103.39
58543
2439.29 100.97 2450.26
2392.98
102.39
58576
2440.67 103.33 2505.22
2400.13
104.38
58587
2441.13
99.01 2399.25
2407.27
99.67
58555
2439.79 101.16 2439.46
2414.42
101.04
58458
2435.75 102.31 2373.11
2421.57
98.00
58352
2431.33
94.76 2417.63
2428.72
99.54
58258
2427.42 103.44 2435.74
2435.87
99.99
57922
2413.42 103.34 2401.31
2443.01
98.29
57658
2402.42 105.31 2436.91
2450.16
99.46
57547
2397.79
99.30 2478.40
2457.31
100.86
57400
2391.67
92.45 2379.47
2464.46
96.55
57391
2391.29
99.40 2454.31
2471.61
99.30
57408
2392.00
99.54 2368.68
2478.76
95.56
57346
2389.42
94.92 2252.91
2485.90
90.63
57335
2388.96 100.76 2389.32
2493.05
95.84
57362
2390.08
99.03 2339.63
2500.20
93.58
57424
2392.67 102.23 2329.30
2507.35
92.90
29541
29392
29387
29307
Jan(Yr5) 2389
29275
Feb
2463
29268
Mar
2522
29308
Apr
2417
29279
May
2468
29276
June
2492
July
2304
29182
29170
Aug
2511
Sept
2494
Oct
2530
29088
28834
28824
Nov
2381
28723
Dec
2211
28677
Jan(Yr6) 2377
28714
Feb
2381
28694
Mar
2268
28652
Apr
2407
May
2367
June
2446
July
Aug
2341
2491
28683
28679
28745
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
15
2452
2561
2377
2277
Seasonal Indexing:
Month Year1 Year2
Jan
93.64
Feb
101.01
Mar
101.42
Apr
100.82
May
101.53
June
109.31
July
94.51
97.39
Aug
104.02
101.37
Sept 104.60
103.55
Oct
101.42
103.76
Nov
95.85
94.97
Dec
90.92
92.94
Year3
97.07
98.42
97.17
100.54
101.93
108.03
96.23
103.57
105.34
103.40
95.05
93.30
Year4
95.53
100.95
103.91
104.75
100.73
104.59
94.86
102.18
99.64
104.21
97.24
94.25
Total
Year5
97.87
100.97
103.33
99.01
101.16
102.31
94.76
103.44
103.34
105.31
99.30
92.45
Year6
99.40
99.54
94.92
100.76
99.03
102.23
Index
96.82
100.49
100.64
100.71
101.14
104.98
95.28
103.06
103.83
103.79
96.05
92.90
1199.69
Adjust each seasonal index by 1.0002584

Final Seasonal Indexes:
Month Index
Jan
96.85
Feb
100.52
Mar
100.67
Apr
100.74
May
101.17
June
105.01
July
95.30
Aug
103.09
Sept
103.86
Oct
103.82
Nov
96.07
Dec
92.92
Regression Output for Trend Line:
Y = 2035.58 + 7.1481 X
R2 = .682, se = 102.9
Note: Trend Line was determined after seasonal effects were removed (based on TCI
column).
17.15 Regression Analysis

The regression equation is:
Predictor
Coef
Constant
1.4228
Shelter
0.4925
s = 0.939
Food
8.5
7.8
4.1
2.3
3.7
2.3
3.3
4.0
4.1
5.7
5.8
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.3
2.8
3.2
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.1
1.8
2.1
3.4
2.5
Food = 1.4228 + 0.4925 Housing

t-ratio
p
4.57
0.0001
7.99
0.0000
R-sq = 72.7%
Housing
15.7
11.5
7.2
2.7
4.1
4.0
3.0
3.0
3.8
3.8
4.5
4.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
3.5
4.0
2.2
2.5
2.5
3.3
9.1555
7.0868
4.9690
2.7526
3.4421
3.3929
2.9004
2.9004
3.2944
3.2944
3.6391
3.3929
2.8511
2.7526
2.6541
2.7033
2.8511
2.7033
2.5556
2.5063
3.1466
3.3929
2.5063
2.6541
2.6541
3.0481
16
R-sq(adj) = 71.5%
e
-0.6555
0.7132
-0.8690
-0.4526
0.2579
-1.0929
0.3996
1.0996
0.8056
2.4056
2.1609
0.2071
-1.4511
-0.6526
-0.3541
0.0967
0.3489
-0.1033
-0.3556
-0.3063
-0.8466
-0.2929
-0.7063
-0.5541
0.7459
-0.5481
Total
e2
0.4296
0.5086
0.7551
0.2048
0.0665
1.1944
0.1597
1.2092
0.6490
5.7870
4.6693
0.0429
2.1057
0.4259
0.1254
0.0093
0.1217
0.0107
0.1264
0.0938
0.7168
0.0858
0.4989
0.3070
0.5564
0.3004
21.1603
(e
et 1 ) 2 = 1.873 + 2.503 + 0.173 + 0.505 + 1.825 + 2.228 + 0.490 +
= 21.160
D =
0.0864 + 2.560 + 0.060 + 3.817 + 2.750 + 0.638 + 0.089 +

0.203 + 0.064 + 0.205 + 0.064 + 0.205 + 0.064 + 0.002 +
0.292 + 0.307 + 0.171 + 0.023 + 1.690 + 1.674 = 24.561
( e t e t1 ) 2
2 . 54 6 1
= 1.16
2 . 11 6 0
Critical values of D: Using 1 independent variable, n = 26, and = .05,
17
dL = 1.30 and dU = 1.46

Since D = 1.16 is less than dL, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis.
There is significant autocorrelation.
17.16 Regression Analysis
Predictor
Coef
Constant
3.1286
First Diff
-.2003
s = 1.44854
Food
8.5
7.8
4.1
2.3
3.7
2.3
3.3
4.0
4.1
5.7
5.8
3.6
1.4
2.1
2.3
2.8
3.2
2.6
2.2
2.2
2.3
3.1
1.8
2.1
3.4
2.5
Housing
15.7
11.5
7.2
2.7
4.1
4.0
3.0
3.0
3.8
3.8
4.5
4.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
3.5
4.0
2.2
2.5
2.5
3.3
Food = 3.1286 - 0.2003 First Diff in Housing

t-ratio
p
10.30
0.000
-1.09
0.287
R-sq = 4.9%
R-sq(adj) = 0.8%
First Diff in Housing

-4.2
-4.3
-4.5
1.4
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.7
-0.5
-1.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
1.3
0.5
-1.8
0.3
0.0
0.8
Critical values of D: Using 1 independent variable, n = 25, and = .05,

dL = 1.29 and dU = 1.46
Since D = 1.04 is less than dL, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis.
18
17.17 The regression equation is:

Failed Bank Assets = 1,379 + 136.68 Number of Failures
for x= 150:
R2 = 37.9%
= 21,881 (million $)
adjusted R2 = 34.1%
se = 13,833
F = 9.78, p = .006
The Durbin Watson statistic for this model is:

D = 2.49
The critical table values for k = 1 and n = 18 are dL = 1.16 and dU = 1.39. Since
the observed value of D = 2.49 is above dU, the decision is to fail to reject the null
hypothesis. There is no significant autocorrelation.
Failed Bank Assets
8,189
104
1,862
4,137
36,394
3,034
7,609
7,538
56,620
28,507
10,739
43,552
16,915
2,588
825
753
186
27
Number of Failures
11
7
34
45
79
118
144
201
221
206
159
108
100
42
11
6
5
1
2,882.8
2,336.1
6,026.5
7,530.1
12,177.3
17,507.9
21,061.7
28,852.6
31,586.3
29,536.0
23,111.9
16,141.1
15,047.6
7,120.0
2,882.8
2,199.4
2,062.7
1,516.0
e
5,306.2
-2,232.1
-4,164.5
-3,393.1
24,216.7
-14,473.9
-13,452.7
-21,314.6
25,033.7
- 1,029.0
-12,372.9
27,410.9
1,867.4
- 4,532.0
- 2,057.8
- 1,446.4
- 1,876.7
- 1,489.0
e2
28,155,356
4,982,296
17,343,453
11,512,859
586,449,390
209,494,371
180,974,565
454,312,622
626,687,597
1,058,894
153,089,247
751,357,974
3,487,085
20,539,127
4,234,697
2,092,139
3,522,152
2,217,144
19
17.18
Failed Bank Assets
8,189
104
1,862
4,137
36,394
3,034
7,609
7,538
56,620
28,507
10,739
43,552
16,915
2,588
825
753
186
27
Number of Failures
11
7
34
45
79
118
144
201
221
206
159
108
100
42
11
6
5
1
First Diff Failures

-4
27
11
34
39
26
57
20
-15
-47
-51
-8
-58
-31
-5
-1
-4

Failed Bank Assets = 13,019 7.3 First Diff Failures
R2 = 0.0%
adjusted R2 = 0.0%
se = 18,091.7
F = 0.00, p = .958
The Durbin Watson statistic for this model is:

D = 1.57
The critical table values for k = 1 and n = 17 are dL = 1.13 and dU = 1.38. Since
the observed value of D = 1.57 is above dU, the decision is to fail to reject the null
hypothesis. There is no significant autocorrelation.
17.19
Starts
333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5
756.1
826.8
lag1
*
333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5
756.1
20
lag2
*
*
333.0
270.4
281.1
443.0
432.3
428.9
443.2
413.1
391.6
361.5
318.1
308.4
382.2
419.5
453.0
430.3
468.5
464.2
521.9
550.4
529.7
556.9
606.5
670.1
745.5
The model with 1 lag:

Housing Starts = -8.87 + 1.06 lag 1
F = 198.67
p = .000 R2 = 89.2% adjusted R2 = 88.8%
se = 48.52
The model with 2 lags:

Housing Starts = 13.66 + 1.0569 lag 2
F = 72.36
p = .000 R2 = 75.9% adjusted R2 = 74.8%
Se = 70.84
The model with 1 lag is the best model with a strong R2 = 89.2%. The model
with 2 lags is relatively strong also.
17.20 The autoregression model is:
21
Juice = 552 + 0.645 Juicelagged2
The F value for this model is 27.0 which is significant at alpha = .001.
The value of R2 is 56.2% which denotes modest predictability. The
adjusted R2 is 54.2%. The standard error of the estimate is 216.6. The DurbinWatson statistic is 1.70 indicating that there is no significant autocorrelation in
this model.
17.21 Year
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Price
22.45
31.40
32.33
36.50
44.90
61.24
69.75
73.44
80.05
84.61
87.28
89.56
a.) Index1950
100.0
139.9
144.0
162.6
200.0
272.8
310.7
327.1
356.6
376.9
388.8
398.9
b.) Index1980
32.2
45.0
46.4
52.3
64.4
87.8
100.0
105.3
114.8
121.3
125.1
128.4
17.22 Year Patents

1980
66.2
1981
71.1
1982
63.3
1983
62.0
1984
72.7
1985
77.2
1986
76.9
1987
89.4
1988
84.3
1989 102.5
1990
99.1
1991 106.7
1992 107.4
1993 109.7
1994 113.6
1995 113.8
1996 121.7
1997 124.1
1998 163.1
1999 169.1
2000 176.0
2001 184.0
2002 184.4
2003 187.0
2004 181.3
Index
66.8
71.7
63.9
62.6
73.4
77.9
77.6
90.2
85.1
103.4
100.0
107.7
108.4
110.7
114.8
115.3
122.8
125.2
164.6
170.6
177.6
185.7
186.1
188.7
182.9
22
17.23
23
Year
Totals
1993
1.53
2.21
1.92
3.38
1999
1.40
2.15
2.68
3.10
2005
2.17
2.51
2.60
4.00
9.04
9.33
11.28
Index1993 =
9 .0
9 .0
4
(1
4
0 ) =0 100.0
Index1999 =
9 .3 3
(1
9 .0 4
0 ) =0 103.2
Index2005 =
1 . 21 8
(1
9 .0 4
0 ) =0 124.8
17.24
Year
1998
1.10
1.58
1.80
7.95
1999
1.16
1.61
1.82
7.96
2000
1.23
1.78
1.98
8.24
2001
1.23
1.77
1.96
8.21
2002
1.08
1.61
1.94
8.19
2003
1.56
1.71
1.90
8.05
2004
1.85
1.90
1.92
8.12
2005
2.59
2.05
1.94
8.10
2006
2.89
2.08
1.96
8.24
Totals 12.43
12.55
13.23
13.17
12.82
13.22
13.79
14.68
15.17
Index1998 =
1 . 42 3
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 94.0
Index1999 =
1 . 52 5
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 94.9
Index2000 =
1 . 23 3
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 100.0
Index2001 =
1 . 13 7
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 99.5
Index2002 =
1 . 82 2
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 100.0
Index2003 =
1 . 23 2
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 101.0
Index2004 =
1 . 73 9
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 106.4
Index2005 =
1 . 64 8
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 111.0
Index2006 =
1 . 15 7
(1
1 . 23 3
0 ) 0= 114.7
17.25
24
Item
Quantity
2000
Price
2000
Price
2004
Price
2005
Price
2006
1
2
3
4
21
6
17
43
0.50
1.23
0.84
0.15
0.67
1.85
0.75
0.21
0.68
1.90
0.75
0.25
0.71
1.91
0.80
0.25
P2000Q2000 P2004Q2000 P2005Q2000 P2006Q2000
Totals
10.50
7.38
14.28
6.45
14.07
11.10
12.75
9.03
14.28
11.40
12.75
10.75
14.91
11.46
13.60
10.75
38.61
46.95
49.18
50.72
Index2000 =
Index2001 =
Index2002 =
P2
Q0
24 0
P2
Q0
20 0
P2
Q0
25 0
P2
Q0
20 0
P2
Q0
26 0
P2
Q0
20 0
46 .95
(100 ) = 121.6
38 .61
49 .18
(100 ) = 127.4
38 .61
50 .72
(100 ) = 131.4
38 .61
17.26
Item
Price
2000
1
2
3
22.50
10.90
1.85
25
Price Quantity Price

2005
2005
2006
27.80
13.10
2.25
13
5
41
Quantity
2006
28.11
13.25
2.35
12
8
44
P2000Q2005 P2000Q2006 P2005Q2005 P2006Q2006
Totals
292.50
54.50
75.85
270.00
87.20
81.40
361.40
65.50
92.25
337.32
106.00
103.40
422.85
438.60
519.15
546.72
Index2005 =
Index2006 =
17.27 a)
P2
Q0
25 0
P2
Q0
(1
20 0
P2
Q0
26 0
P2
Q0
(1
20 0
0 ) =0
0 ) 0=
519 .15
(100 ) = 122.8
422 .85
546 .72
(100 ) = 124.7
438 .60
The linear model:
Yield = 9.96 - 0.14 Month
F = 219.24
R2 = 90.9
p = .000
se = .3212
The quadratic model:
Yield = 10.4 - 0.252 Month + .00445 Month2
F = 176.21
R2 = 94.4%
p = .000
se = .2582
In the quadratic model, both t ratios are significant,

for x: t = - 7.93, p = .000 and for x2d: t = 3.61, p = .002
The linear model is a strong model. The quadratic term adds some
predictability but has a smaller t ratio than does the linear term.
b)
x
10.08
10.05
9.24
9.23
9.69
9.55
9.37
8.55
8.36
8.59
7.99
8.12
7.91
7.73
7.39
7.48
7.52
7.48
7.35
7.04
6.88
6.88
7.17
7.22
MAD =
c)
F
9.65
9.55
9.43
9.46
9.29
8.96
8.72
8.37
8.27
8.15
7.94
7.79
7.63
7.53
7.47
7.46
7.35
7.19
7.04
6.99
e
.04
.00
.06
.91
.93
.37
.73
.25
.36
.42
.55
.31
.11
.05
.12
.42
.47
.31
.13
.23
e = 6.77
6.77
20
= .3
e
x
F
10.08
10.05 10.08 .03
9.24 10.07 .83
9.23 9.82 .59
9.69 9.64 .05
9.55 9.66 .11
9.37 9.63 .26
8.55 9.55 1.00
8.36 9.25 .89
8.59 8.98 .39
7.99 8.86 .87
8.12 8.60 .48
= .3385
= .7
e
F
10.08 .03
10.06 .82
9.49 .26
9.31 .38
9.58 .03
9.56 .19
9.43 .88
8.81 .45
8.50 .09
8.56 .57
8.16 .04
26
7.91
7.73
7.39
7.48
7.52
7.48
7.35
7.04
6.88
6.88
7.17
7.22
8.46
8.30
8.13
7.91
7.78
7.70
7.63
7.55
7.40
7.24
7.13
7.14
.55
.57
.74
.43
.26
.22
.28
.51
.52
.36
.04
.08
e = 10.06
MAD =.3 =
10 .06
23
27
8.13
7.98
7.81
7.52
7.49
7.51
7.49
7.39
7.15
6.96
6.90
7.09
.22
.25
.42
.04
.03
.03
.14
.35
.27
.08
.27
.13
e = 5.97
= .4374
MAD =.7 =
5.97
= .2596
23
= .7 produces better forecasts based on MAD.

d).
MAD for b) .3385, c) .4374 and .2596. Exponential smoothing with = .7

produces the lowest error (.2596 from part c).
e)
TCSI
10.08
10.05
4 period
moving tots
8 period
moving tots
TC
SI
76.81
9.60
96.25
75.92
9.49
97.26
75.55
9.44
102.65
75.00
9.38
101.81
72.99
9.12
102.74
70.70
8.84
96.72
68.36
8.55
97.78
66.55
8.32
103.25
65.67
8.21
97.32
64.36
8.05
100.87
38.60
9.24
38.21
9.23
37.71
9.69
37.84
9.55
37.16
9.37
35.83
8.55
34.87
8.36
33.49
8.59
33.06
7.99
32.61
8.12
28
31.75
7.91
62.90
7.86
100.64
61.66
7.71
100.26
60.63
7.58
97.49
59.99
7.50
99.73
59.70
7.46
100.80
59.22
7.40
101.08
58.14
7.27
101.10
56.90
7.11
99.02
56.12
7.02
98.01
56.12
7.02
98.01
31.15
7.73
30.51
7.39
30.12
7.48
29.87
7.52
29.83
7.48
29.39
7.35
28.75
7.04
28.15
6.88
27.97
6.88
28.15
7.17
7.22
1st Period
2nd Period
3rd Period
4th Period
102.65 97.78 100.64 100.80 98.01

101.81 103.25 100.26 101.08 98.01
96.25 102.74 97.32 97.49 101.10
97.26 96.72 100.87 99.73 99.02
The highs and lows of each period (underlined) are eliminated and the others are
averaged resulting in:
Seasonal Indexes:
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
total
99.82
101.05
98.64
98.67
398.18
Since the total is not 400, adjust each seasonal index by multiplying by
= 1.004571 resulting in the final seasonal indexes of:
1st 100.28
2nd 101.51
3rd 99.09
4th 99.12
400
398 .18
17.28
Year
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
17.29
Item
1
2
3
4
5
6
Totals
Index2002 =
Index2003 =
Index2004 =
Index2005 =
Index2006 =
Quantity
2073
2290
2349
2313
2456
2508
2463
2499
2520
2529
2483
2467
2397
2351
2308
2002
3.21
0.51
0.83
1.30
1.67
0.62
8.14
Index Number
100.0
110.5
113.3
111.6
118.5
121.1
118.8
120.5
121.6
122.0
119.8
119.0
115.6
113.4
111.3
2003
3.37
0.55
0.90
1.32
1.72
0.67
8.53
P2
P2
(1
P2
0 0
P2
(1
P2
P2
(1
P2
0 0
P2
(1
29
P2
P2
(1
2004
3.80
0.68
0.91
1.33
1.90
0.70
9.32
2005
3.73
0.62
1.02
1.32
1.99
0.72
9.40
0) = 0
8 .1
8 .1
4
(1
4
0 ) 0= 100.0
0) = 0
8 .5 3
(1
8 .1 4
0 ) 0= 104.8
0) = 0
9 .3 2
(1
8 .1 4
0 ) 0= 114.5
0) = 0
9 .4 0
(1
8 .1 4
0 ) 0= 115.5
0) = 0
9 .2 9
(1
8 .1 4
0 ) 0= 114.1
2006
3.65
0.59
1.06
1.30
1.98
0.71
9.29
17.30
Item
1
2
3
2003
P
Q
2.75 12
0.85 47
1.33 20
Laspeyres:
2004
P Q
2.98 9
0.89 52
1.32 28
2005
P
Q
3.10 9
0.95 61
1.36 25
2006
P Q
3.21 11
0.98 66
1.40 32
P2003Q2003
P2006Q2003
33.00
39.95
26.60
99.55
38.52
46.06
28.00
112.58
Totals
Laspeyres Index2006 =
Paasche2005:
P2
Q0
26 0
P2
Q0
(1
23 0
30
0 ) 0=
112 .58
(100 ) = 113.1
99 .55
P2003Q2005 P2005Q2005
24.75
51.85
33.25
109.85
Totals
Paasche Index2005 =
27.90
57.95
34.00
119.85
P2
Q0
25 0
P2
Q0
(1
23 0
0 ) 0=
119 .85
(100 ) = 109.1
109 .85
17.31
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
a) moving average
e
F
Quantity
6559
6022
6439
6396
1984
6391
6152
7034
7400
8761
9842
10065
10298
10209
10500
9913
9644
9952
9333
9409
9143
9512
9430
9513
10085
31
b) = .2
F
6022.00
6022.00
6340.00
56.00
6105.40
290.60
6405
6285.67
119.33
6163.52
241.48
6413.33
22.33
6211.82
179.18
6397.33
245.33
6247.65
95.65
6316.00
718.00
6228.52
805.48
6525.67
874.33
6389.62
1010.38
6862.00 1899.00
6591.69
2169.31
7731.67 2110.33
7025.56
2816.45
8667.67 1397.33
7588.84
2476.16
9556.00
742.00
8084.08
2213.93
10068.33
140.67
8526.86
1682.14
10190.67
309.33
8863.29
1636.71
10335.67
422.67
9190.63
722.37
10207.33
563.33
9335.10
308.90
10019.00
67.00
9396.88
555.12
9836.33
503.33
9507.91
174.91
9643.00
234.00
9472.93
63.93
9564.67
421.67
9460.14
317.14
9295.00
217.00
9396.71
115.29
9354.67
75.33
9419.77
10.23
9361.67
151.33
9421.82
91.18
9485.00
600.00
9440.05
644.95
e =11,889.67
MADmoving average =
MAD =.2 =
c)
numberfore casts
numberfore casts
e =18,621.46
1 , 81 8 . 6 9 7
= 540.44
2 2
1 , 68 2. 4 1 6
= 846.43
2 2
The three-year moving average produced a smaller MAD (540.44) than did
exponential smoothing with = .2 (MAD = 846.43). Using MAD as the
criterion, the three-year moving average was a better forecasting tool than the
exponential smoothing with = .2.
32
17.32-17.34
Month Chem
Jan(1)
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
23.701
24.189
24.200
24.971
24.560
24.992
July
22.566
Aug
24.037
Sept
25.047
12m tot
2yr tot
TC
SI
TCI
575.65
23.985
94.08
23.872
23.917
575.23
23.968
100.29
24.134
23.919
576.24
24.010
104.32
24.047
23.921
577.78
24.074
100.17
24.851
23.924
578.86
24.119
95.50
24.056
23.926
580.98
24.208
93.32
23.731
23.928
584.00
24.333
95.95
24.486
23.931
586.15
24.423
98.77
24.197
23.933
587.81
24.492
103.23
23.683
23.936
589.05
24.544
103.59
24.450
23.938
590.05
24.585
102.44
24.938
23.940
592.63
24.693
107.26
24.763
23.943
595.28
24.803
97.12
25.482
23.945
597.79
24.908
99.05
24.771
23.947
601.75
25.073
103.98
25.031
23.950
605.59
25.233
96.41
25.070
23.952
288.00
287.65
287.58
288.66
Oct
24.115
289.12
Nov
23.034
289.74
Dec
22.590
291.24
Jan(2)
23.347
292.76
Feb
24.122
Mar
25.282
Apr
25.426
May
25.185
June
26.486
July
24.088
293.39
294.42
294.63
295.42
297.21
298.07
Aug
24.672
299.72
Sept
26.072
302.03
Oct
24.328
303.56
Nov
23.826
Dec
24.373
Jan(3)
24.207
Feb
25.772
33
607.85
25.327
94.07
24.884
23.955
610.56
25.440
95.81
25.605
23.957
613.27
25.553
94.73
25.388
23.959
614.89
25.620
100.59
25.852
23.962
616.92
25.705
107.34
25.846
23.964
619.39
25.808
104.46
25.924
23.966
622.48
25.937
99.93
25.666
23.969
625.24
26.052
109.24
26.608
23.971
627.35
26.140
94.95
26.257
23.974
629.12
26.213
97.51
25.663
23.976
631.53
26.314
103.44
26.131
23.978
635.31
26.471
96.90
26.432
23.981
639.84
26.660
95.98
26.725
23.983
644.03
26.835
94.54
26.652
23.985
647.65
26.985
93.82
26.551
23.988
652.98
27.208
97.16
26.517
23.990
659.95
27.498
106.72
27.490
23.992
666.46
27.769
104.37
27.871
23.995
672.57
28.024
101.43
28.145
23.997
679.39
28.308
106.50
28.187
24.000
686.66
28.611
93.48
28.294
24.002
694.30
28.929
100.13
29.082
24.004
701.34
29.223
105.34
29.554
24.007
304.29
306.27
307.00
307.89
Mar
27.591
309.03
Apr
26.958
310.36
May
25.920
312.12
June
28.460
313.12
July
24.821
314.23
Aug
25.560
Sept
27.218
Oct
25.650
Nov
25.589
Dec
25.370
314.89
316.64
318.67
321.17
322.86
Jan(4)
25.316
324.79
Feb
26.435
328.19
Mar
29.346
331.76
Apr
28.983
334.70
May
28.424
337.87
June
30.149
July
26.746
341.52
345.14
Aug
28.966
349.16
Sept
30.783
34
352.18
Oct
28.594
706.29
29.429
97.16
29.466
24.009
710.54
29.606
97.14
30.039
24.011
715.50
29.813
97.33
30.484
24.014
720.74
30.031
96.34
30.342
24.016
725.14
30.214
100.80
30.551
24.019
727.79
30.325
106.75
30.325
24.021
730.25
30.427
101.57
29.719
24.023
733.94
30.581
100.53
30.442
24.026
738.09
30.754
106.63
30.660
24.028
Year2
95.95
98.77
103.23
103.59
102.44
107.26
97.12
99.05
103.98
96.41
94.07
95.81
Year3
94.73
100.59
107.34
104.46
99.93
109.24
94.95
97.51
103.44
96.90
95.98
94.54
354.11
Nov
28.762
356.43
Dec
29.018
359.07
Jan(5)
28.931
Feb
30.456
Mar
32.372
Apr
30.905
May
30.743
June
32.794
361.67
363.47
364.32
365.93
368.01
370.08
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
29.342
30.765
31.637
30.206
30.842
31.090
Seasonal Indexing:
Month Year1
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
94.08
Aug
100.29
Sept
104.32
Oct
100.17
Nov
95.50
Dec
93.32
Total
Year4
93.82
97.16
106.72
104.37
101.43
106.50
93.48
100.13
105.34
97.16
97.14
97.33
Adjust each seasonal index by 1200/1199.88 = 1.0001
Year5
96.34
100.80
106.75
101.57
100.53
106.63
Index
95.34
99.68
106.74
103.98
100.98
106.96
94.52
99.59
104.15
97.03
95.74
95.18
1199.88
35
Final Seasonal Indexes:

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Index
95.35
99.69
106.75
103.99
100.99
106.96
94.53
99.60
104.16
97.04
95.75
95.19
Regression Output for Trend Line:
= 22.4233 + 0.144974 x
R2 = .913
Regression Output for Quadratic Trend:
= 23.8158 + 0.01554 x + .000247 x2
R2 = .964
In this model, the linear term yields a t = 0.66 with p = .513 but the squared term
predictor yields a t = 8.94 with p = .000.
Regression Output when using only the squared predictor term:
= 23.9339 + 0.00236647 x2
R2 = .964
Note: The trend model derived using only the squared predictor was used in
computing T (trend) in the decomposition process.
36
17.35
2004
Price Quantity
1.26
21
0.94
5
1.43
70
1.05
12
2.81
27
7.49
Item
Margarine (lb.)
Shortening (lb.)
Milk (1/2 gal.)
Cola (2 liters)
Potato Chips (12 oz.)
Total
Index2004 =
Index2005 =
Index2006 =
P2
P2
(1
P2
0 0
P2
(1
P2
P2
(1
0) = 0
7 .4
7 .4
9
(1
9
0 ) 0= 100.0
0) = 0
7 .7 3
(1
7 .4 9
0 ) 0= 103.2
0) = 0
8 .3 7
(1
7 .4 9
0 ) 0= 111.8
P2004Q2004
P2005Q2004
P2006Q2004
26.46
4.70
100.10
12.60
75.87
219.73
27.72
4.85
109.20
12.24
77.22
231.23
29.19
5.60
113.40
15.00
80.73
243.92
Totals
IndexLaspeyres2005 =
IndexLaspeyres2006 =
Total
2005
Price Quantity
1.32
23
0.97
3
1.56
68
1.02
13
2.86
29
7.73
P2
P2
0 0 25 0
(1
Q0
24 0
P2
Q0
26 0
P2
Q0
(1
24 0
0 ) 0=
2 3. 2 1 3
(1
2 1. 7 9 3
0 ) 0= 105.2
0 ) 0=
2
2
0 ) 0= 111.0
4. 9 3 2
(1
1. 7 9 3
P2004Q2005
P2004Q2006
P2005Q2005
P2006Q2006
28.98
2.82
97.24
13.65
81.49
224.18
27.726
3.76
92.95
11.55
78.68
214.66
30.36
2.91
106.08
13.26
82.94
235.55
30.58
4.48
105.30
13.75
83.72
237.83
2006
Price Quantity
1.39
22
1.12
4
1.62
65
1.25
11
2.99
28
8.37
IndexPaasche2005 =
IndexPaasche2006 =
17.36
P2
0 0 25 0
P2
Q0
P2
0
0
P2
(1
24 0
Q0
26 0
Q0
(1
24 0
37
0 ) 0=
2 3. 5 5 5
(1
2 2.1 4 8
0 ) 0= 105.1
0 ) 0=
2 3. 8 7 3
(1
2 1. 6 4 6
0 ) 0= 110.8
= 9.5382 0.2716 x
(7) = 7.637
R2 = 40.2%
F = 12.78, p = .002
se = 0.264862
Durbin-Watson:
n = 21
k=1
= .05
D = 0.44
dL = 1.22 and dU = 1.42
Since D = 0.44 < dL = 1.22, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis.
17.37 Year
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
x
118.5
123.0
128.5
133.6
137.5
141.2
144.8
148.5
152.8
156.8
160.4
163.9
169.6
176.4
180.3
184.8
189.5
195.7
Fma
Fwma
SEMA
125.9
130.7
135.2
139.3
143.0
146.8
150.7
154.6
158.5
162.7
167.6
172.6
177.8
182.8
128.4
133.1
137.3
141.1
144.8
148.8
152.7
156.6
160.3
164.8
170.3
175.4
180.3
184.9
134.56
111.30
92.16
85.10
96.04
99.50
93.61
86.03
123.77
188.38
161.93
150.06
137.48
167.70
82.08
65.93
56.25
54.17
63.52
64.80
58.68
53.14
86.12
135.26
100.80
89.30
85.56
115.78
1,727.60
1,111.40
SE =
MSEma =
MSEwma =
38
1 7 . 62 07
= 123.4
=
o r e c a 1 s 4t s
N . Fo
S
N . Fo
SEWMA
1 1 .4 1 1
= 79.39
=
o r e c a 1 s 4t s
The weighted moving average does a better job of forecasting the data using
MSE as the criterion.
39
17.38 The regression model with one-month lag is:

Cotton Prices = - 61.24 + 1.1035 LAG1
F = 130.46 (p = .000), R2 = .839, adjusted R2 = .833,
se = 17.57, t = 11.42 (p = .000).
The regression model with four-month lag is:
Cotton Prices = 303.9 + 0.4316 LAG4
F = 1.24 (p = .278), R2 .053, adjusted R2 = .010,
se = 44.22, t = 1.11 (p = .278).
The model with the four-month lag does not have overall significance and has an
adjusted R2 of 1%. This model has virtually no predictability. The model with
the one-month lag has relatively strong predictability with adjusted R2 of 83.3%.
In addition, the F value is significant at = .001 and the standard error of the
estimate is less than 40% as large as the standard error for the four-month lag
model.
17.39
Qtr
TSCI
4qrtot
8qrtot
TC
SI
TCI
Year1 1 54.019
2 56.495
213.574
3
50.169
425.044 53.131
94.43
51.699 53.722
421.546 52.693 100.38
52.341 55.945
423.402 52.925
98.09
52.937 58.274
430.997 53.875 102.28
53.063 60.709
440.490 55.061
97.02
55.048 63.249
453.025 56.628 101.07
56.641 65.895
467.366 58.421
58.186 68.646
211.470
4
52.891
210.076
Year2 1
51.915
213.326
55.101
217.671
53.419
222.819
57.236
230.206
Year3 1 57.063
237.160
97.68
2 62.488
60.052 104.06
60.177 71.503
61.522
98.13
62.215 74.466
62.966 100.58
62.676 77.534
64.063
97.91
63.957 80.708
64.812 105.51
65.851 83.988
4
Year4 1
2
480.418
243.258
60.373
492.176
248.918
63.334
503.728
254.810
62.723
512.503
257.693
68.380
518.498
260.805
40
3 63.256
524.332 65.542
96.51
65.185 87.373
526.685 65.836 100.93
65.756 90.864
526.305 65.788
99.48
66.733 94.461
526.720 65.840 103.30
65.496 98.163
521.415 65.177
97.04
65.174 101.971
511.263 63.908 104.64
66.177 105.885
501.685 62.711
95.22
60.889 109.904
491.099 61.387 103.59
61.238 114.029
263.527
4 66.446
263.158
Year5 1 65.445
263.147
2 68.011
263.573
3 63.245
257.842
4 66.872
253.421
Year6 1 59.714
248.264
2 63.590
3 58.088
4 61.443
Quarter
1
2
3
4
Year1
Year2
Year3
Year4
Year5
Year6
Index
97.68
104.06
98.13
100.58
97.91
105.51
96.51
100.93
99.48
103.30
97.04
104.64
95.22
103.59
94.43
100.38
98.09
102.28
97.02
101.07
97.89
103.65
96.86
100.86
Total
Adjust the seasonal indexes by:
399.26
400
= 1.00185343
399 .26
41
Adjusted Seasonal Indexes:
17.40
Quarter
Index
1
2
3
4
98.07
103.84
97.04
101.05
Total
400.00
Time Period
Q1(yr1)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1(yr2)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1(yr3)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1(yr4)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1(yr5)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1(yr6)
Q2
Q3
Q4
Deseasonalized Data
55.082
54.406
51.699
52.341
52.937
53.063
55.048
56.641
58.186
60.177
62.215
62.676
63.957
65.851
65.185
65.756
66.733
65.496
65.174
66.177
60.889
61.238
59.860
60.805
17.41 Linear Model:

R2 = 55.7%
42
= 53.41032 + 0.532488 x
F = 27.65 with p = .000
se = 3.43
Quadratic Model:
R2 = 76.6%
= 47.68663 + 1.853339 x 0.052834 x2
F = 34.37 with p = .000
se = 2.55
In the quadratic regression model, both the linear and squared terms have
significant t statistics at alpha .001 indicating that both are contributing. In
addition, the R2 for the quadratic model is considerably higher than the R2 for the
linear model. Also, se is smaller for the quadratic model. All of these indicate
that the quadratic model is a stronger model.
17.42 R2 = 55.8%
F = 8.83 with p = .021
se = 50.18
This model with a lag of one year has modest predictability. The overall F is
significant at = .05 but not at = .01.
17.43 The regression equation is:

Equity Funds = -359.1 + 2.0898 Money Market Funds
R2 = 88.2%
se = 582.685
D = 0.84
For n = 26 and = .01, dL = 1.07 and dU = 1.22.
Since D = 0.84 < dL = 1.07, the null hypothesis is rejected. There is significant
autocorrelation in this model.
= .1
17.44
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
PurPwr
6.04
5.92
5.57
5.40
5.17
5.00
4.91
4.73
4.55
4.34
4.67
5.01
4.86
4.72
4.60
4.48
4.86
5.15
F
6.04
6.03
5.98
5.92
5.85
5.77
5.68
5.59
5.49
5.38
5.31
5.28
5.24
5.19
5.13
5.07
5.05
.12
.46
.58
.75
.85
.86
.95
1.04
1.15
.71
.30
.42
.52
.59
.65
.21
.10
F
6.04
5.98
5.78
5.59
5.38
5.19
5.05
4.89
4.72
4.53
4.60
4.81
4.84
4.78
4.69
4.59
4.73
43
= .5
.12
.41
.38
.42
.38
.28
.32
.34
.38
.14
.41
.05
.12
.18
.21
.27
.42
e = 10.26 . e = 4.83
MAD1 =
MAD2 =
MAD3 =
10 .26
= .60
17
4.83
= .28
17
3.97
= .23
17
= .8
F
6.04
5.94
5.64
5.45
5.23
5.05
4.94
4.77
4.59
4.39
4.61
4.93
4.87
4.75
4.63
4.51
4.79
.12
.37
.24
.28
.23
.14
.21
.22
.25
.28
.40
.07
.15
.15
.15
.35
.36
e = 3.97
The smallest mean absolute deviation error is produced using = .8.

The forecast for year 19 is:
F(19) = (.8)(5.15) + (.2)(4.79) = 5.08
44
17.45 The model is: Bankruptcies = 75,532.436 0.016 Year

Since R2 = .28 and the adjusted R2 = .23, this is a weak model.
et
- 1,338.58
- 8,588.28
- 7,050.61
1,115.01
12,772.28
14,712.75
- 3,029.45
- 2,599.05
622.39
9,747.30
9,288.84
- 434.76
-10,875.36
- 9,808.01
- 4,277.69
- 256.80
(et et-1)2
et et-1
- 7,249.7
1,537.7
8,165.6
11,657.3
1,940.5
-17,742.2
430.4
3,221.4
9,124.9
- 458.5
- 9,723.6
-10,440.6
1,067.4
5,530.3
4,020.9
(e
D =
(e e
e
t 1
2
)2
52,558,150
2,364,521
66,677,023
135,892,643
3,765,540
314,785,661
185,244
10,377,418
83,263,800
210,222
94,548,397
109,006,128
1,139,343
30,584,218
16,167,637
et 1 ) 2 =921,525,945
et2
1,791,796
73,758,553
49,711,101
1,243,247
163,131,136
216,465,013
9,177,567
6,755,061
387,369
95,009,857
86,282,549
189,016
118,273,455
96,197.060
18,298,632
65,946
=936,737,358
921 ,525 ,945

= 0.98
936 ,737 ,358
For n = 16, = .05, dL = 1.10 and dU = 1.37

Since D = 0.98 < dL = 1.10, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that there is significant autocorrelation.

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Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Gain a general understanding time series forecasting techniques.

CHAPTER TEACHING STRATEGY

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

A full gamut of time series forecasting techniques has been presented

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Chapter 15: Forecasting and Time Series

SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 17

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

19.4 16.6 2.8

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

4-mo. mov. avg.

4-mo. wt. mov. avg. error

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

For = .9, MAD =

= .9 produces a smaller mean average error.

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

17.10 Simple Regression Trend Model:

= 37,969 + 9899.1 Period

F = 1603.11 (p = .000), R2 = .988, adjusted R2 = .988,

= 35,769 + 10,473 Period - 26.08 Period2

F = 772.71 (p = .000), R2 = .988, adjusted R2 = .987

17.11 Trend line:

Members = 148,141.8 66.0143 Year

F = 92.82, reject the null hypothesis.

Y ear Line Fit Plot

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

1993.83 104.02 2011.83

2004.54 104.06 2008.47

2016.33 101.42 1969.76

2082.88 101.01 2093.12

2096.17 101.42 2111.85

2113.75 100.82 2115.35

2130.50 101.53 2137.99

2146.25 109.31 2234.07

2181.08 101.37 2144.73

2190.33 103.55 2183.71

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

2202.17 103.76 2200.93

2306.46 100.54 2301.97

2324.13 101.93 2341.60

2341.08 108.03 2408.34

2372.33 103.57 2383.35

2396.00 105.34 2430.19

2419.79 103.40 2409.94

2450.63 100.95 2461.20

2450.25 103.91 2529.06

2449.71 104.75 2547.15

2455.00 100.73 2444.40

2459.08 104.59 2449.29

2464.21 102.18 2442.53

Chapter 17: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

2455.54 104.21 2464.84

2439.29 100.97 2450.26

2440.67 103.33 2505.22

2439.79 101.16 2439.46