The Anthropecene

The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives
Author(s): Will Steffen, Jacques Grinevald, Paul Crutzen and John McNeill
Source: Philosophical Transactions: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences , 13
March 2011, Vol. 369, No. 1938, The Anthropocene: a new epoch of geological time? (13
March 2011), pp. 842-867
Published by: Royal Society
Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41061703
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PHILOSOPHICAL
TRANSACTIONS pM ^^ R ^ ^ ^^ ^ 842_867
THE ROYAL A' doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0327
society íü,
Review
The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical

perspectives
By Will Steffen1'*, Jacques Grinevald2, Paul Crutzen3
and John McNeill4
1 Climate Change Institute, The Australian National University,

Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
2 Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies and University
of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
^Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128 Mainz, Germany
^School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, Washington,
DC 20057, USA
The human imprint on the global environment has now become so large and active that
it rivals some of the great forces of Nature in its impact on the functioning of the Earth
system. Although global-scale human influence on the environment has been recognized
since the 1800s, the term Anthropocene, introduced about a decade ago, has only recently
become widely, but informally, used in the global change research community. However,
the term has yet to be accepted formally as a new geological epoch or era in Earth history.
In this paper, we put forward the case for formally recognizing the Anthropocene as a
new epoch in Earth history, arguing that the advent of the Industrial Revolution around
1800 provides a logical start date for the new epoch. We then explore recent trends in
the evolution of the Anthropocene as humanity proceeds into the twenty-first century,
focusing on the profound changes to our relationship with the rest of the living world and
on early attempts and proposals for managing our relationship with the large geophysical
cycles that drive the Earth's climate system.
Keywords: Anthropocene; global change; planetary boundaries; Industrial Revolution;
geo-engineering
1. Introduction
Climate change has brought into sharp focus the capability of contemporar
human civilization to influence the environment at the scale of the Earth as a
single, evolving planetary system. Following the discovery of the ozone hole ov
Antarctica, with its undeniably anthropogenic cause, the realization that the
emission of large quantities of a colourless, odourless gas such as carbon dioxid
(CO2) can affect the energy balance at the Earth's surface has reinforced th
concern that human activity can adversely affect the broad range of ecosyste
* Author for correspondence ([email protected]).
One contribution of 13 to a Theme Issue 'The Anthropocene: a new epoch of geological time?'.
842 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

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Review. The history of the Anthropocene 843
services that support human (and other) life [1,2] and could eventua
to a 'crisis in the biosphere' ([3], cited in Grinevald [4]). But climate
is only the tip of the iceberg. In addition to the carbon cycle, huma
(i) significantly altering several other biogeochemical, or element cycle
as nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur, that are fundamental to life on the
(ii) strongly modifying the terrestrial water cycle by intercepting river flow
uplands to the sea and, through land-cover change, altering the water v
flow from the land to the atmosphere; and (iii) likely driving the sixth
extinction event in Earth history [5]. Taken together, these trends are
evidence that humankind, our own species, has become so large and acti
it now rivals some of the great forces of Nature in its impact on the fun
of the Earth system.
The concept of the Anthropocene, proposed by one of us (P.J.C.) about a
ago [6,7], was introduced to capture this quantitative shift in the relati
between humans and the global environment. The term Anthropocene su
(i) that the Earth is now moving out of its current geological epoch, ca
Holocene and (ii) that human activity is largely responsible for this exit f
Holocene, that is, that humankind has become a global geological force in
right. Since its introduction, the term Anthropocene has become widely a
in the global change research community, and is now occasionally ment
in articles in popular media on climate change or other global environm
issues. However, the term remains an informal one. This situation may
as an Anthropocene Working Group has recently been formed as part o
Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy to consider whether the term
be formally recognized as a new epoch in the Earth's history [8].
2. Antecedents of the Anthropocene concept
The term Anthropocene may seem a neologism in scientific terminology. How

the idea of an epoch of the natural history of the Earth, driven by hum
notably 'civilized Man', is not completely new and was mooted long
the rising awareness of the global environment in the 1970s, triggered
others, by NASA's Earthrise photography and the Club of Rome's 1972
on Limits to Growth [9]. Biologist Eugene F. Stoermer wrote [4, p. 243]: '
using the term "anthropocene" in the 1980s, but never formalized it un
contacted me'. About this time other authors were exploring the concept
Anthropocene, although not using the term (e.g. [10]). More curiously, a
book about Global Warming, published in 1992 by Andrew C. Revkin, con
the following prophetic words: 'Perhaps earth scientists of the future wi
this new post-Holocene period for its causative element - for us. We are e
an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene [sic].
all, it is a geological age of our own making' [11, p. 55]. Perhaps many r
(e.g. [4]) ignored the minor linguistic difference and have read the new t
Anthro(po)cene!
In fact, before the introduction of the Anthropocene concept [6,7], s
historical precedents for this far-reaching idea have been revisited. In ret
this line of thought, even before the golden age of Western industriali
and globalization, can be traced back to remarkably prophetic observ
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011)

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844 W. Steffen et al
philosophers of Earth history. Followin

IIASA project entitled Sustainable Develo
recognized the early precedent of the 'a
Italian geologist and Catholic priest [13].
Marsh in the second edition - significan
Human Action [14] - of his celebrated M
significant early work was Man as a Geol
Further development of the concept was
the twentieth century. Only in 1955, at
in Changing the Face of the Earth' [17] d
emerge. Much later, with the symposium
by Human Action [18], and some other
the Fundación César Manrique in Lanz
re-emerge.
At all of these academic meetings, references were made to the earlier concept of
a transformation of the biosphere into the noösphere, that is, the anthroposphere
or the anthropogenic transformation of the Earth system. The term and the
notion of the noösphere arose in the Paris of the early 1920s, just after the Great
War, and were underpinned by the French publication of the last volume of La
Face de la Terre by Austrian geologist Eduard Suess (1834-1914), recalling the
importance of the notion of the biosphere (coined by Suess [20]). More directly,
the concept of the noösphere was the result of the meeting of three prophetic
great minds: the Russian geochemist and naturalist Vladimir Vernadsky, creator
of biogeochemistry and long neglected father of the science of the biosphere
(later called global ecology); and two heterodox Catholic thinkers of evolution,
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, then professor of geology, and his close friend the
mathematician-turned-philosopher Edouard Le Roy, Henri Bergson 's disciple and
successor at the Collège de France. Very little is conserved in the archives about
this remarkable troika during the stay of Vernadsky in France from 1922 to 1925.
Nevertheless, Vernadsky 's teachings at the Sorbonne were published under the
title La Géochimie [21], in fact the first monograph on biogeochemistry, and, as
a follow-up, the now famous book on The Biosphere [22,23].
After Teilhard's death in 1955, many people confused the various
conceptualizations of the biosphere and the noösphere developed by Teilhard
(his disciples or opponents) and Vernadsky (partly assimilated by US ecosystems
pioneers following G. E. Hutchinson's Yale scientific school). The Vernadskian
revolution was invisible until recently (Grinevald, in the introduction to
Vernadsky [22]). The two books of 1927 and 1928 by Le Roy were eclipsed
and forgotten (the first partial English translation of his works appeared in
Samson & Pitt [24]). Many scholars are ignorant of the old doctrine of the
evolution of the biosphere and its transformation by the development of Man's
noösphere (including the technosphere and, more recently, the so-called industrial
metabolism). The idea of 'Man: a new geological force' was included in Fairfield
Osborn's Our Plundered Planet [25], quoting in its bibliography the American
publication of 'The biosphere and the noösphere' [26].
Both Teilhard and Vernadsky were readers of Suess 's La Face de la Terre and
the celebrated French philosopher Henri Bergson [27]. In his 1907 master book
L'Evolution Créatrice, Bergson wrote: 'A century has elapsed since the invention
of the steam engine, and we are only just beginning to feel the depths of the shock

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it gave us. ... In thousands of years, when, seen from the distance, only the
lines of the present age will still be visible, our wars and our revolutions will c
for little, even supposing they are remembered at all; but the steam engin
the procession of inventions of every kind that accompanied it, will perha
spoken of as we speak of the bronze or of the chipped stone of pre-historic tim
it will serve to define an age.' (Creative Evolution, transi, by Arthur Mit
New York, The Modern Library (1911) 1944, p. 153.)
In the chapter 'Carbon and living matter in the earth's crust' of his
Geochemistry, Vernadsky wrote: 'But in our geologic era, in the psychozoic
era - the era of Reason [28, p. 66] - a new geochemical factor of paramount
importance appears. During the last 10000 or 20000 years, the geochemical
influence of agriculture has become unusually intense and diverse. We see a
surprising speed in the growth of mankind's geochemical work. We see a more
and more pronounced influence of consciousness and collective human reason
upon geochemical processes. Man has introduced into the planet's structure a new
form of effect upon the exchange of atoms between living matter and inert matter.
Formerly, organisms affected the history only of those atoms that were necessary
for their respiration, nutrition and proliferation. Man has widened this circle,
exerting influence upon elements necessary for technology and for the creation of
civilized forms of life. Man acts here not as homo sapiens, but as homo sapiens
faber' [21, p. 342; 23, pp. 219-220]. In the original French text of La Géochimie,
Bergson's Evolution Créatrice is quoted as source of inspiration. The same idea
was developed in the second edition, in French, of La Biosphère [22]. More
recently, James Lovelock, the father of the Gaia hypothesis and a proponent of
geophysiological homeostasis, has provided another global conceptual framework
for human influence on biogeochemical cycles [29,30].
However, in the beginning of the twentieth century, nobody, except perhaps
Vernadsky in the USSR and Henry Adams in the USA, imagined the Great
Acceleration of the second phase of the Anthropocene - the post- World War
II worldwide industrialization, techno-scientific development, nuclear arms race,
population explosion and rapid economic growth. In the interwar period,
nobody took seriously the global warming scenario first calculated by Svante
Arrhenius [31] in his 1896 fundamental study of greenhouse theory, or by Guy
Stewart Callendar [32] in the interwar period. These events occurred before the
emergence of our modern planetary ecological conscience.
The diverse notions of noösphere, or similar ideas under different terminology,
are, however, not equivalent to the new concept of the Anthropocene, now
advocated by the recently elected President of the Geological Society of London
for 2010-2012, who wrote in his book: 'The time in which we now live would then,
sadly and justly, surely become known as the "Anthropocene". We have received
an important message from a warm planet. We can understand it, and we should
respond - as if people mattered' [33, p. 196].
3. History of the human-environment relationship
The history of interactions between humans and the environment in which they
were embedded goes back a very long way, to well before the emergence of
fully modern humans to the times of their hominid ancestors. During virtually

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all of this time, encompassing a few mil

influenced their environment in many w
of natural ecosystems to gain advantage i
they required or in aiding the hunt for the
was likely gained by observation and tr
effective at subtly modifying their enviro
the ecosystems around them. They cer
composition of the atmosphere or the oc
development would have to wait until th
few centuries ago.
The story begins a few million years ag
had mastered the art of making stone t
later also learned how to control and man
fundamentally altered our relationship w
whom could manipulate fire [34] . Control o
their hunt for food sources, but it also
from the hominid camps at night.
Increasing access to a protein-rich food
humans. The shift from a primarily v
triggered a fundamental shift in the ph
humans, the latter arguably the more im
about 1300 cm3, and gave humans the lar
on the Earth [35]. This subsequently allow
and later written language, both facilita
and social learning from generation to g
massive - and rapidly increasing - store
eventually developed complex civilizatio
to manipulate the environment. No othe
history comes anywhere near to this capa
Pre-industrial humans, still a long way
civilization that we know today, neverthele
the very energy-intensive fossil fuels on w
About a millennium ago, the first signif
arose during the Song dynasty (960-1279
the north, the Chinese coal industry, d
industry, grew in size through the elev
production of the entire European (exclu
the Chinese coal industry began to lapse
owing to a variety of reasons, the Europ
was beginning its ascent in the thirteent
the size of London, and became the fuel
energy density. By the 1600s, the city o
of coal annually [38,39]. However, China
rest of the world relied on wood and cha
The Chinese and English combustion of
atmospheric concentration of CO2.
Two pre-industrial events have occa
beginning of the Anthropocene. The fir
Pleistocene megafauna. During the last ic

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
least four continents - Asia, Australia and the Americas - went extinct
Despite the long-standing debate about whether human hunting pressur
climate variability was the ultimate cause of the demise of the megafau
seems clear now that humans played a significant role, given the close cor
between the timing of the extinctions and the arrival of humans. A
these extinctions were likely significant for the ecology of these contine
large areas, there is no evidence that they had any appreciable impact o
functioning of the Earth system as a whole.
The second was the advent of agriculture - the so-called Neolithic Revo
in the early phases of the Holocene. This hypothesis for the beginning
Anthropocene argues that two agriculture-related events - the clearing of
and conversion of land to cropping about 8000 years ago and the develo
of irrigated rice cultivation about 5000 years ago - emitted enough C
methane (CH4), respectively, to the atmosphere to prevent the initiation
next ice age [43]. The hypothesis is that the early forest clearing rev
downward trend in CO2 concentration that had been established in the Ho
by increasing CO2 concentration by 5-10 ppm. A recent model-based an
claims that these modest increases in greenhouse gas concentrations were
to trigger natural ocean feedbacks in the climate system strong en
raise global mean temperature significantly and release additional CO2 t
atmosphere [44].
On the other hand, there are considerable arguments against the
Anthropocene hypothesis. First, if the very modest increases in gre
gas concentrations 5000-8000 years ago drove significant increases in
mean temperature, it would imply that very high global heating would
from the present greenhouse gas concentrations. Furthermore, analyses
change in solar radiation owing to orbital forcing suggest that the E
presently in an unusually long interglacial period and is not due to e
another ice age for at least 10 000 years without any increases in greenh
emissions [45,46]. In addition, the variation of atmospheric CO2 concent
through the Holocene can be explained by the natural dynamics of the
cycle [47,48]. This latter point is buttressed by a recent analysis, using
of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model, which shows that CO2 chang
to land-use change, even assuming double the maximum estimated r
land-use change in the past, is less than 4ppm up to 1850, well with
bounds of natural variability [49]. Thus, the early Anthropocene hyp
does not seem plausible, and does not have widespread support wit
research community.
4. The beginning of the Anthropocene
The Industrial Revolution, with its origins in Great Britain in the 17

the thermo-industrial revolution of nineteenth century Western civilizati
marked the end of agriculture as the most dominant human activity an
the species on a far different trajectory from the one established during
the Holocene. It was undoubtedly one of the great transitions - and up to
most significant - in the development of the human enterprise. The und
reasons for the transition were probably complex and interacting, inclu

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
848 W. Steffen et al.
resource constraints in some areas, evolv

unlocked innovative new thinking, and th
that emphasized markets [51].
One feature stood out in the world that humanity left as it entered the
Industrial Revolution; it was a world dominated by a growing energy bottleneck.
The primary energy sources were tightly constrained in magnitude and location.
They consisted of wind and water moving across the Earth's surface, and, on
the biosphere, plants and animals. All of these energy sources are ultimately
derived from the flow of energy from the Sun, which drives atmospheric circulation
and the hydrological cycle and provides the fundamental energy source for
photosynthesis. These processes have inescapable intrinsic inefficiencies; plants
use less than 1 per cent of the incoming solar radiation for photosynthesis and
animals eating plants obtain only about 10 per cent of the energy stored in the
plants. These energy constraints provided a strong bottleneck for the growth of
human numbers and activity.
The discovery and exploitation of fossil fuels shattered that bottleneck. Fossil
fuels represented a vast energy store of solar energy from the past that had
accumulated from tens or hundreds of millions of years of photosynthesis.
They were the perfect fuel source - energy-rich, dense, easily transportable and
relatively straightforward to access. Human energy use rose sharply. In general,
those industrial societies used four or five times as much energy as their agrarian
predecessors, who in turn used three or four times as much as our hunting and
gathering forebears [52].
Exploiting fossil fuels allowed humanity to undertake new activities and vastly
expand and accelerate the existing activities [53]. The most important example
of the former is the capability to synthesize reactive nitrogen compounds from
unreactive nitrogen in the atmosphere, an energy-intensive process. In essence,
this fossil fuel-driven industrial process (the Haber-Bosch process) creates
fertilizer out of air. An example of the latter is the rapid increase in the conversion
of natural ecosystems, primarily forests, into cropland and grazing areas owing
to mechanized clearing technologies [54] . Another example is the increase in the
diversion of water from rivers through the construction of large dams.
The result of these and other energy-dependent processes and activities was a
significant increase in the human enterprise and its imprint on the environment.
Between 1800 and 2000, the human population grew from about one billion to
six billion, while energy use grew by about 40- fold and economic production by
50- fold [55] . The fraction of the land surface devoted to intensive human activity
rose from about 10 to about 25-30% [56]. The imprint on the environment was
also evident in the atmosphere, in the rise of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and
nitrous oxide (N2O). Carbon dioxide, in particular, is directly linked to the rise of
energy use in the industrial era as it is an inevitable outcome of the combustion
of fossil fuels.
Although the atmospheric CO2 concentration provides a very useful indicator
to track the evolution of the Anthropocene [57], it is not particularly useful
for identifying a beginning date for the Anthropocene because natural sinks
of carbon in the oceans and on land dampened and delayed the imprint of
the early industrial period on the atmosphere. For example, atmospheric CO2
concentration was 277 ppm (by volume) in 1750, 279 ppm in 1775, 283 ppm in 1800
and 284 ppm in 1825 [58], all of which lie within the range of Holocene variability

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
of 260-285 ppm [59]. Only by 1850 did the CO2 concentration (285 ppm)
the upper limit of natural Holocene variability and by 1900 it had climb
296 ppm [58], just high enough to show a discernible human influence b
natural variability. Since the mid-twentieth century, the rising concentra
isotopie composition of CO2 in the atmosphere have been measured direct
great accuracy [60], and has shown an unmistakable human imprint.
So when did the Anthropocene actually start? It is difficult to put a
date on a transition that occurred at different times and rates in different p
but it is clear that in 1750, the Industrial Revolution had barely begun
1850 it had almost completely transformed England and had spread to m
other countries in Europe and across the Atlantic to North America. W
suggest that the year AD 1800 could reasonably be chosen as the beg
of the Anthropocene. Note that we have used a Christian calendar date to
mark the beginning of the Anthropocene, rather than the 'before present (BP)'
date that is normally used to mark events earlier in the Holocene. Studies of
the Holocene, especially those quoting radiocarbon dates, often use BP although
that 'present' is defined as a rapidly receding 1950. We use the standard Christian
calendar here both for familiarity and also for the importance of near-historical
events and dates in our analysis. It is striking, however, that the radiocarbon
'present' date is very close to the beginning of both the nuclear age and
the Great Acceleration, which comprise one of the several candidates for a
beginning-of- Anthropocene date.
5. The Great Acceleration
The human enterprise switched gears after World War II. Although the im
of human activity on the global environment was, by the mid- twentieth cent
clearly discernible beyond the pattern of Holocene variability in several impor
ways, the rate at which that imprint was growing increased sharply at m
century. The change was so dramatic that the 1945 to 2000+ period ha
called the Great Acceleration [61].
Figure 1 gives a visual representation of the Great Acceleration. As sho
in figure la, which displays several indicators of the development of
enterprise from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to the beginning o
new millennium, every indicator of human activity underwent a sharp in
in rate around 1950 [5,55]. For example, population increased from 3 to 6
in just 50 years, while the leap in economic activity was even more drama
rise of 15- fold over that period. The consumption of petroleum grew by a
of 3.5 since 1960. Some of the indicators were virtually 0 at the beginnin
the Great Acceleration but exploded soon after the end of World War II.
number of motor vehicles rose from only 40 million at the end of the war to
700 million by 1996, and continues to rise steadily. The post-war period h
seen the rapid expansion of international travel, electronic communicatio
economic connectivity, all from very low or non-existent bases.
One of the most dramatic trends of the past half-century has been
widespread abandonment of the farm and the village for a life in the
Over half of the human population - over 3 billion people - now live in u

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areas, with the fraction continuing to r

with it rising expectations and eventu
brings an increase in consumption, form
Acceleration.
The imprint of the burgeoning human enterprise on the Earth system is
unmistakable, as shown in figure lo. Not all of the 12 global environmental
indicators show the same, sharp change in slope around 1950 owing to lags and
buffering effects in complex natural systems, but the Earth system has clearly
moved outside the envelope of Holocene variability. The rise in atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations is well documented [1], but there are many more
equally significant changes to the global environment. Conversion of natural
ecosystems to human-dominated landscapes has been pervasive around the
world [2]; the increase in reactive nitrogen in the environment, arising from human
fixation of atmospheric nitrogen for fertilizer, has been dramatic [62]; and the
world is likely entering its sixth great extinction event and the first caused by a
biological species [63].
The onset of the Great Acceleration may well have been delayed by a half-
century or so, interrupted by two world wars and the Great Depression. The
embryo of the phenomenon was clearly evident in the 1870-1914 period. The
rates of both population and economic growth began to rise above their earlier
levels. The Industrial Revolution gathered pace also, and spread rapidly from its
base in England and the Low Countries across other parts of Europe and to North
America, Russia and Japan. The seeds for the post- World War II explosion in
mobility were planted with the invention of the automobile and the aeroplane
Globalization began in earnest with the integration of the outputs of mines and
plantations in Australia, South Africa and Chile into an emerging global economy.
But the acceleration of these trends was shattered by World War I and the
disruptions of the decades that followed.
What finally triggered the Great Acceleration after the end of World War II?
This war undoubtedly drove the final collapse of the remaining pre-industrial
European institutions that contributed to the depression and, indeed, to the
Great War itself. But many other factors also played an important role [55,61].
New international institutions - the so-called Bretton Woods institutions - were
formed to aid economic recovery and fuel renewed economic growth. Led by
the USA, the world moved towards a system built around neo-liberal economic
principles, characterized by more open trade and capital flows. The post- World
War II economy integrated rapidly, with growth rates reaching their highest
values ever in the 1950-1973 period.
Other factors also contributed to the Great Acceleration. The war produced a
cadre of scientists and technologists, as well as a spectrum of new technologies
(most of which depended on the cheap energy provided by fossil fuels), that
could then be turned towards the civil economy. Partnerships among government,
industry and academia became common, further driving innovation and growth.
More and more public goods were converted into commodities and placed into
the market economy, and the growth imperative rapidly became a core societal
value that drove both the socio-economic and the political spheres.
Environmental problems received little attention during much of the Great
Acceleration. When local environmental stresses, such as urban air pollution
or the fouling of waterways, or regional environmental problems, such as

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 1. (a) The increasing rates of change in human activity since the beginning of the Industri
Revolution. Significant increases in rates of change occur around thel950s in each case and illustra
how the past 50 years have been a period of dramatic and unprecedented change in human histo
From Steffen et al. [5], including references to the individual databases on which the individ
figures are based, (b) Global scale changes in the Earth system as a result of the drama
increase in human activity: (i) atmospheric CO2 concentration; (ii) atmospheric N2O concentrati
(iii) atmospheric CH4 concentration; (iv) percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, us
the average annual total column ozone, 330, as a base; (v) Northern Hemisphere average surfac
temperature anomalies; (vi) natural disasters after 1900 resulting in more than 10 people killed
more than 100 people affected; (vii) percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfish
or collapsed; (viii) annual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration; (ix) mod
calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coas
margin for the period since 1850; (x) loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated f
tropical Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia; (xi) amount of land converted
to pasture and cropland; and (xii) mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Adapted fro
Steffen et al. [5], including references to the individual databases on which the individual figu
are based.

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 1. {Continued.)
the acid rain episode in northern Europe an

they were sometimes ameliorated, but this
wealthy countries of Europe, North Americ
environmental problems were largely ignor
the atmospheric CO2 concentration grew b
311 ppm in 1950 to 369 ppm in 2000, almost
of the OECD countries. The implications o
did not attract widespread attention until the 1990s, and the cautious
scientific community did not declare, with any degree of confidence, that the
climate was indeed warming and that human activities were the likely cause
until 2001 [64].

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 2. Relative contributions of nine regions to cumulative global emissions (1751-2004

global emission flux for 2004, global emissions growth rate (5-year smoothed for 2000-20
global population (2004). FSU, Former Soviet Union countries; Dl, developed countries exce
USA, the EU and Japan; D2, developing countries except China and India; D3, least-devel
countries. Adapted from Raupach et al. [65], which includes references to the individual da
on which the figure is based.
6. The Anthropocene in the twenty-first century
As the first decade of the twenty-first century comes to a close, many of the
established during the Great Acceleration have continued, but the Anthrop
has also taken some new directions. One of the most prominent of these
been the rapid development trajectories that have emerged in some of the w
largest developing countries, most prominently China but also India, Brazil,
Africa and Indonesia. While it is clear that the Great Acceleration of the 1945-
2000 period was almost entirely driven by the OECD countries, representing
small fraction of the world's population, the Great Acceleration of the twenty-firs
century has become much more democratic.
Figure 2, based on data through 2004, clearly shows the rapidly changin
pattern of human emissions of CO2 [65]. From a long-term perspective, developing
countries have accounted for only about 20 per cent of the total, cumulative
emissions since 1751, but contain about 80 per cent of the world's population
The world's poorest countries, with a combined population of about 800 mill
people, have contributed less than 1 per cent of the cumulative CO2 emission
since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. However, the most recent
data in the figure show the dramatic changes over the past decade. For 2004
the emissions from developing countries had grown to over 40 per cent of t
world total, and the emissions growth rate, based on a 5-year smoothed averag
for the 2000-2004 period, show that emissions from China and India have
grown much more rapidly than those of the OECD countries and the former
Soviet Union.
The global carbon budget for 2008 shows these trends even more sharply [66].
By 2008, coal had become the largest fossil- fuel source of CO2 emissions, with
over 90 per cent of the growth in coal use coming from China and India. China
has now become the world's largest emitter of CO2, and India has overtaken
Russia as the third largest emitter. However, about 25 per cent of the growth in

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
emissions over the last decade from developin

of international trade in goods and services p
but consumed in the developed world.
Despite the enormous economic growth ra
the last decade, it is undoubtedly clear that r
and other developing countries from precisel
of the OECD countries. The most well-know
so-called 'peak oil' issue [4,67]. Nevertheless,
achieve a sustained economic growth rate t
era in the OECD countries.
The concept of peak oil is, in fact, more complex than is often appreciat
Technically speaking, peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of o
in any area under consideration, recognizing that it is a finite natural resour
subject to depletion [68,69]. It can thus refer to a single oil field or to global
production as a whole, the latter being the more commonly understood scale
interest. In general, oil production is expected to rise to a maximum and th
slowly decline. At the global scale, however, the ability to locate and access n
sources of oil is an important term in the peak oil equation. But peak oil of
implicitly (and incorrectly) refers to the ability of the production of oil to k
up with the demand. Ultimately, it is indeed the supply-demand relationsh
that is of most concern from the perspective of economic development; that
supply will need to keep pace with demand if the large developing countries are t
repeat the pathway followed by the OECD countries in their post- World Wa
economic explosion, when oil was plentiful and inexpensive.
What, then, are the prospects for the availability of oil beyond 2010? In ter
of demand, an increase of about 2-3% yr"1 has been observed through the fi
decade of the twenty-first century, mainly owing to increasing demand in C
and India. The International Energy Agency forecasts that production will n
to increase by a further 26 per cent by 2030 to keep up with the demand [67] . T
prospects of achieving this level of increased production in just two decade
prices that are affordable in the developing world seem highly unlikely. A recent
thorough assessment of the peak oil issue [67] came to the conclusions that (i)
timing of a peak for global oil production is relatively insensitive to assumpt
about the size of the resource and (ii) the date of peak production is estimate
lie between 2009 and 2031, with a significant risk of a peak before 2020 (figure 3
Much less well known is the possibility that the world is close to 'pe
phosphorus' [70]. Phosphorus is a key element, along with nitrogen, in
fertilizers that have played a central role the rapid increase in agricultu
production achieved during the Great Acceleration. The demand for fertili
will grow as the world population continues to increase to the middle of th
century at least and as diets change with the rapid development of China, In
and other large developing countries. However, using a Hubbert-type analy
for phosphorus, the production of phosphorus is likely to peak at 25-30 M
per annum around 2030, well before the demand is likely to peak [70]. Witho
careful management of phosphorus production and distribution in an equit
and long-term manner, a deterioration of food security in some parts of the wor
as well as diminishing supplies of petroleum, could slow the Great Accelera
significantly in the near future. The production of biofuels could exacerba
the situation.

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 3. Forecasts for the peaking of the global production of conventional oil. The forecas
from 2009 to 2031 (adapted from Sorrell et al [67], which also includes references to the
lines in the graph).
Perhaps one of the most controversial twists of the Anthropocene in the tw

first century is the accelerating drive not only to understand the molecu
genetic basis of life, but to synthesize life itself. The announcement
2010 that a team led by J. Craig Venter had built a genome from its ch
constituents and used it to make synthetic life marks a dramatic step t
that goal [71]. The research effort, costing US$ 40 million and emplo
people working for a decade, resulted in the creation of a bacterial chrom
which was then transferred into a bacterium where it replaced the origin
With the new, artificially produced chromosome in place, the bacterial ce
replicating to produce a new set of proteins [72]. A team led by Ven
one of the two teams to first map the complete human genome, a feat t
announced in 2001 [73,74].
These latest steps towards building synthetic life are ultimately based
a longer history of research on the origin of life. The research goes back
to 1952, just at the beginning of stage 2 of the Anthropocene - the Great
Acceleration - when chemists Stanley Miller and Harold Urey performed a classic
experiment that showed that the organic molecules that form the building blocks
of life could be formed from simple inorganic molecules in the primitive Earth
atmosphere [75,76]. They mixed methane, water vapour, ammonia, hydrogen and
CO2 in a closed container; when an electric current was discharged through the
mixture, complex organic molecules, including amino acids, carbohydrates and
nucleic acids, were formed.

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Ironically, while humanity may be on the

has failed to slow the recent decline in the
A synthesis of 31 indicators associated w
2010 shows no significant reductions in t
that period. Despite some notable achiev
loss, for example, an increase in protect
terrestrial surface and the declaration of
key biodiversity areas [78,79], the overall
in 8 out of 10 indicators of the state of
populations of vertebrates [80], the extent
of coral reefs.
The study has also examined trends in (i) the drivers of change to biodiversity,
such as ecological footprint, nitrogen deposition, numbers of alien species,
overexploitation and climate impacts and (ii) human responses to biodiversity
decline, such as extent of protected areas, management of invasive alien species
and sustainable forest management (figure 4; [15]). All of the indicators of human
pressure on biodiversity show increases over the past several decades, with
none showing a significant reduction. Humanity has responded to the decline
in biodiversity with an increase in a range of conservation actions (figure 4c),
but the level of response has not been sufficient to significantly affect the rate
of biodiversity decline and, in fact, the rate of increase in response activity has
slowed over the most recent decade.
Steffen et al. [57] argued that humanity is now entering stage 3 of th
Anthropocene based on the growing awareness of human impact on the
environment at the global scale and the first attempts to build global governan
systems to manage humanity's relationship with the Earth system. The
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are examples of such attempts.
However, the results from these two attempts at global governance have been
disappointing. Emissions of CO2 continue to rise unabated, while, as noted above,
the human-driven decline in Earth's biodiversity shows no signs of being slowed
or arrested.
Failure to build effective global governance systems is perhaps not surprising.
Many characteristics of the Anthropocene are largely outside the range of past
experience from an environmental governance perspective [83,84]. For example,
time lags in the Earth system can be formidable; decisions made over the
next decade or two could commit future societies to metres of sea-level rise
centuries into the future. Irreversibility is also a common feature; loss of
cannot be reversed if society after the fact decides they might be valua
worth preserving. Equity issues are often magnified in the Anthropocen
strong difference between the wealthy countries that are most responsible for
additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the poorest countries th
likely to suffer the most severe impacts of climate change is a classic exam
Finally, the sheer complexity of the Earth system functioning, for examp
likelihood of tipping elements in large sub-systems of the planet [85] , pre
bewildering array of problems to policymakers.
Given the nature of the problems arising in the Anthropocene, it is li
wonder that political leaders, policymakers and managers are struggl
find effective global solutions. There are, however, some innovative appro
Phil Trans. R. Soc. A (2011)

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 4. Aggregated indices of (a) the state of biodiversity, (b) the human pressures on bio
and (c) the human responses to biodiversity decline. Shading shows the 95% CI, and sign
positive/upward (open circles) and negative/downward (closed circles) inflections are in
Adapted from Butchart et al [76], which also includes details on the methodology and th
used in the aggregation.
that offer hope. Active adaptive management has proven effective in d

with complexity and uncertainty at smaller levels [86-88] and might
effective at the global level. Multi-level and polycentric governance sys
show promise of bridging the gap between global problems and local im
and solutions [89-91]. An additional - and very essential - challenge is to
early warning systems for changes in the Earth system functioning, so
policymakers can respond in time. The GEOSS (Global Observation
of Systems), designed to achieve comprehensive, coordinated and su
observations of the state of the planet to support enhanced prediction
of the Earth system behaviour (www.earthobservations.org), will be a key
element in any early warning system. Finally, the governance community
will need to greatly enhance its capacity to assimilate new information

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
commensurate with humanity's explodin

and socio-economic data and to analyse,
dynamics [84].
The urgency of getting effective glo
highlighted by the Copenhagen climate
attempts to reduce greenhouse emissio
prospects for the immediate future do n
turn around the rising levels of global em
rapid cuts to emissions thereafter if what
change is to be avoided [92,93]. Given this
turning towards the feasibility of deploy
approaches to cool the surface of the
outcome, possibly to be followed, step-
review of geo-engineering has been publ
recently a taboo topic, geo-engineering
topic and in situ tests may subsequently
promising approaches.
Perhaps the most widely discussed geo-engineering approach is based on
artificially adding aerosols (microscopic particles suspended in air) into the
stratosphere ([97] and reintroduced by Crutzen [98]). Aerosols can originate
naturally - for example, from wildfires, dust storms or volcanic eruptions - or
from human activities such as fossil fuel and biomass combustion. Aerosols
generally act to cool the climate by scattering back into space some o
incoming solar radiation. The effect is enhanced as some of these particle
act as nuclei around which water vapour condenses and forms clouds, affec
cloud brightness (albedo) and precipitation. The geo-engineering approach
on this phenomenon is to deliberately enhance sulphate particle concentratio
the atmosphere and thus cool the planet, offsetting a fraction of the anthropog
increase in greenhouse gas warming. The cooling effect is most efficient if
sulphate particles are produced in the stratosphere, where they remain for
two years.
Near the ground, the cooling effect of sulphur particles comes at a substantial
price as they act as pollutants affecting human health. According to the World
Health Organization, sulphur particles lead to more than 500000 premature
deaths per year worldwide [99]. Through acid precipitation ('acid rain') and
deposition, SO2 and sulphates also cause various kinds of ecological damage,
particularly in freshwater bodies. This creates a dilemma for environmental
policymakers, because emission reductions of SO2, and also most anthropogenic
organic aerosols, for health and ecological considerations, add to global warming
and associated negative consequences, such as sea level rise. According to model
calculations by Brasseur & Roeckner [100], complete improvement in air quality
could lead to a global average surface air temperature increase by 0.8° C on most
continents and 4°C in the Arctic.
Needless to say, the possibility of adverse environmental side effects must b
fully researched before count ermeasures to greenhouse warming are attempted
Among negative side effects, those on stratospheric ozone are obvious from
an atmospheric chemical perspective. Recent model calculations by Tilmes
et al. [101] indicate a delay by several decades in the recovery of the
ozone hole.

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Figure 5. Conceptual description of planetary boundaries. The boundary is designed to

the crossing of a critical continent al- to- global threshold in an Earth system process. Insu
knowledge and the dynamic nature of the threshold generate a zone of uncertainty about it
position, which informs the determination of where to place the boundary. Adapted from R
et al [108].
There are at least two additional, potentially serious problems. First, should
measures to limit CO2 emissions prove unsuccessful, growing uptake of CO2 will
lead to acidification of the upper ocean waters, leading to dissolution of calcifying
organisms [102]. Second, the effect of enhanced sulphur particle concentration
in the stratosphere on precipitation regimes around the world, and hence on
the water resources required to support human activities, may also be serious.
Reducing incoming energy (sunlight) to the Earth's surface will no doubt lower
global average temperature but it will also affect the global hydrological cycle. For
example, the eruption of Mt Pinatubo in 1991, which produced a large volume of
sulphur particles that were injected into the stratosphere, lowered global average
temperature for a few years and led to increases in the incidence of drought and
substantial decreases in global stream flow [103]. Data for the twentieth century
as a whole show that volcanic eruptions caused detectable decreases in global
land precipitation [104,105].
There is no doubt that, if geo-engineering is to play a significant role
in preventing the climate system to warm beyond the '2°C guardrail' [106],
much more scientific research is required. Even more importantly, legal,
ethical and societal issues, not to mention the challenges of global governance
described earlier, will need to be thoroughly explored and solved before
deliberate human modification of the climate system can be undertaken. Building
trust among international political leaders of many different cultures and
perspectives, and with the general public, would be required to make any
large-scale climate modification acceptable, even if it would appear scientifically
advantageous. Ultimately, the near inevitability of unforeseen consequences
should give humanity pause for serious reflection before embarking on any
geo-engineering approaches.

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
860 W. Steffen et ai
A strongly contrasting approach - in

engineering - is the planetary boundarie
colleagues [107,108]. The approach recog
trying to deliberately manipulate the E
human influences, given the lack of kno
system and the possibility of abrupt and
very difficult to anticipate, when compl
boundaries approach is thus explicitly b
the Holocene domain, the environmenta
civilization has developed and thrived.
The set of planetary boundaries defines
with respect to the Earth system, and
systems or processes, many of which ex
critical thresholds are crossed. The appr
Control variables are defined for each sub
thresholds are identified in relation to the control variable. Thresholds are
intrinsic features of the Earth system, and exist independent of human actio
desires. The boundaries themselves, on the other hand, are values of the
variable set at a 'safe' distance from the threshold, 'safe' being a value jud
based on how societies deal with risk and uncertainty.
Rockström et al. [107,108] suggest that nine planetary boundaries com
the set that defines the safe operating space for humanity. Table 1 sets o
nine global sub-systems or processes, their control variables (parameter
suggested planetary boundaries and the current position along the c
variable compared with the pre-industrial (pre-Anthropocene) value. Ac
to this analysis, three of the boundaries - those for climate change,
biodiversity loss and the nitrogen cycle- have already been transgressed.
in these cases humanity has already driven the Earth system out of the H
domain. Several of the processes - for example, change in land use and
freshwater use - do not have well-defined thresholds but rather could undermine
the resilience of the Earth system as a whole.
The planetary boundaries concept is a further development in the unfolding
stage 3 of the Anthropocene. Up to now, attempts at conceptualizing a
global approach to managing humanity's relationship with the environment
have focused either on individual sub-systems or processes in isolation -
climate, biodiversity, stratospheric ozone - or on simple cause-effect approaches
to deliberately manipulating the Earth system, that is, geo-engineering. Planetary
boundaries take the next step, by considering the Earth system as a single,
integrated complex system and by identifying a stability domain that offers
a safe operating space in which humanity can pursue its further development
and evolution.
7. Societal implications of the Anthropocene concept
Up to now the concept of the Anthropocene has been confined almost entirely
the research community. How will it be perceived by the public at large and
political or private sector leaders? If the debate about the reality of anthropogenic
climate change is any indication, the Anthropocene will be a very difficult concep

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
Table 1. The planetary boundaries (adapted from Rockström et al. [107], which also
individual references for the data presented in the table). Those rows shaded in gr
processes for which the proposed boundaries have already been transgressed. Bou
processes in dark grey have been crossed.
for many people to accept. The rise of climate scepticism is increas

recognized, not as a scientific debate about evidence and explanation,
normative debate deeply skewed by beliefs and values and occasionally
self-interest [109].
Climate scepticism, or more appropriately the denial of contempor
change and/or its human causes, is, in many cases, a classic example
dissonance'; that is, when facts that challenge a deeply held belief ar

193.255.231.135 on Wed, 26 Apr 2023 08:52:36 UTC
the believer clings even more strongly t

proselytize fervently to others despite t
the belief [110]. This response may bec
Anthropocene, when the notion of huma
in the natural world is directly challen
assumptions that underpin neo-classical
been a major driver of the Great Accelera
concept of the Anthropocene.
Humanity has faced significant challenge
the past. One of the most prominent exa
of evolution, first postulated by Charles
narrative of Christianity (and many othe
The notion, subsequently strengthened by f
'just' another ape and not a special creati
society of Darwin's time, and still causes
the world.
The concept of the Anthropocene, as it becomes more well known in the general
public, could well drive a similar reaction to that which Darwin elicited [111].
Can human activity really be significant enough to drive the Earth into a new
geological epoch? There is one very significant difference, however, between the
two ideas, Darwinian evolution and the Anthropocene. Darwin's insights into our
origins provoked outrage, anger and disbelief but did not threaten the material
existence of society of the time. The ultimate drivers of the Anthropocene, on the
other hand, if they continue unabated through this century, may well threaten
the viability of contemporary civilization and perhaps even the future existence
of Homo sapiens.
Parts of this article are derived from an earlier paper on the development of the Anthropocene [57].
We thank Dr Jan A. Zalasiewicz for useful suggestions for and comments on the paper. We also
thank two referees for helpful comments that improved the paper.
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The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives

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The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical

1 Climate Change Institute, The Australian National University,

842 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society

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2. Antecedents of the Anthropocene concept

The term Anthropocene may seem a neologism in scientific terminology. How

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philosophers of Earth history. Followin

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3. History of the human-environment relationship

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all of this time, encompassing a few mil

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4. The beginning of the Anthropocene

The Industrial Revolution, with its origins in Great Britain in the 17

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resource constraints in some areas, evolv

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5. The Great Acceleration

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areas, with the fraction continuing to r

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the acid rain episode in northern Europe an

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Figure 2. Relative contributions of nine regions to cumulative global emissions (1751-2004

6. The Anthropocene in the twenty-first century

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emissions over the last decade from developin

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Perhaps one of the most controversial twists of the Anthropocene in the tw

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Ironically, while humanity may be on the

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that offer hope. Active adaptive management has proven effective in d

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commensurate with humanity's explodin

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Figure 5. Conceptual description of planetary boundaries. The boundary is designed to

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