Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

Recommendation Price 12-Mo. Target Price Report Currency Investment Style
HOLD « « « « « USD 61.64 (as of market close May 24, 2024) USD 71.00 USD Large-Cap Growth
Equity Analyst Alexander Yokum

GICS Sector Financials Summary PayPal Holdings operates a two-sided platform that enables digital and mobile payments for
Sub-Industry Transaction and Payment Processing Services consumers and merchants worldwide.

Key Stock Statistics (Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI), Company Reports)
52-Wk Range USD 76.54 - 50.25 Oper.EPS2024E USD 4.26 Market Capitalization[B] USD 64.42 Beta 1.42
Trailing 12-Month EPS USD 5.02 Oper.EPS2025E USD 4.80 Yield [%] N/A 3-yr Proj. EPS CAGR[%] 16
Trailing 12-Month P/E 12.28 P/E on Oper.EPS2024E 14.47 Dividend Rate/Share N/A SPGMI's Quality Ranking NR
USD 10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago 5,609.0 Common Shares Outstg.[M] 1,053.00 Trailing 12-Month Dividend N/A Institutional Ownership [%] 71.0

Price Performance Analyst's Risk Assessment

LOW MEDIUM HIGH

Our risk assessment reflects the view that PYPL serves
dynamic markets with formidable competition across
money transmission solutions (i.e., digital wallet, e-
commerce, point of sale, and installment loans) the
company offers for consumers and merchants globally.
However, we think the company continues to make strides
juggling uneven growth across branded/unbranded
processing volumes, which is further complemented by its
cash-generative business and sound balance sheet,
especially as it advances on plans to externalize its
measured (but notable) credit exposure, which all remain
potential offsets.

Revenue/Earnings Data

Revenue (Million USD)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
2025 E 8,113 E 8,467 E 8,680 E 9,302 E 34,562
Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
2024 7,699 E 7,858 E 7,997 E 8,642 E 32,196
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should not be relied upon as such.
2023 7,040 7,287 7,418 8,026 29,771
Analysis prepared by Alexander Yokum on Apr 30, 2024 05:04 PM ET, when the stock traded at USD 67.92.
2022 6,483 6,806 6,846 7,383 27,518
2021 6,033 6,238 6,182 6,918 25,371
Highlights Investment Rationale/Risk
2020 4,618 5,261 5,459 6,116 21,454
u Following 8% revenue growth in 2023, we u Our rating is Hold. Although we continue to
Earnings Per Share (USD)
expect growth to come in at an equal 8% in believe the payment space is highly attractive,
2024. Still, this growth is well below PYPL’s five- we are concerned that increased competition 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year
year CAGR of 14%. We expect the exceptional from players such as Apple Pay may lead to a 2025 E 1.18 E 1.17 E 1.21 E 1.24 E 4.80
26% growth seen in value added services in more modest growth profile for PYPL. In recent 2024 1.08 E 0.98 E 1.03 E 1.17 E 4.26
2023 to slow in 2024 given fewer benefits from quarters, PYPL’s branded checkout growth has 2023 0.85 0.87 0.98 1.14 3.83
elevated interest rates and a tighter origination underperformed, and growth instead has come 2022 0.52 0.68 0.91 0.99 3.09
hurdle rate. Also, we expect branded checkout from unbranded checkout. It’s a troubling trend 2021 1.12 0.87 0.90 0.94 3.84
growth to remain muted as PYPL struggles with as unbranded checkout coincides with lower 2020 0.66 1.07 1.07 1.08 3.88
increasing competitive pressures. Serving as margins. However, a positive catalyst could Fiscal Year ended Dec 31. EPS Estimates based on CFRA's
less of a headwind should be active accounts, come from a new product called Fastlane, which Operating Earnings; historical earnings are adjusted. In periods
which we expect to stabilize in 2024 at ~430 in early testing is leading to a low double-digit where a different currency has been reported, this has been
million after falling 2% in 2023. lift in guest checkout conversion for adjusted to match the current quoted currency.
u Following an adjusted operating margin of participating merchants. Fastlane is expected to
be generally available to merchants in the U.S. Dividend Data
17.2% in 2023, we expect the margin to improve
approximately 100 bps in 2024, given employee in 2H 2024. In the longer term, we think upside No cash dividends have been paid in the last year.
reductions and expense controls. Importantly, could come from Venmo as monetization has
PYPL has changed its methodology to include been lackluster despite 60 million active users.
stock-based compensation and related u Downside risks to our rating and target include
employer payroll taxes (e.g., 2021-2023 macroeconomic deterioration, greater-than-
adjusted earnings are now 22% lower) in its expected market share losses, slower e-
results to enhance transparency. commerce adoption trends, and failure to
u A company hallmark is PYPL’s FCF generation, monetize Venmo to a greater extent.
with $5.5B+ expected in 2024 and $6.0B+ in u On April 30, we raised our 12-month target
2025. We expect PYPL to funnel excess FCF into price by $12 to $71, 14.8x our 2025 EPS view,
growth investments and aggressively return deeply discounted to PYPL’s historical average
capital to shareholders via buybacks, with $5B+ given market share concerns.
expected in 2024.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright ©2024 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment
objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment
or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such investments, if any,
may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on
their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless
otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
1
Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Business Summary Apr 30, 2024 Corporate information

CORPORATE OVERVIEW. PayPal Holdings is a technology platform firm enabling digital and mobile payments Investor contact
for consumers and merchants around the world. PayPal’s goal is “to enable consumers and merchants to S. E. Winoker (408 967 1000)
manage and move their money anywhere in the world, anytime, on any platform and through any device.”
PayPal was spun out of eBay in July 2015, becoming an independent publicly traded company. Office
PayPal’s core product is a two-sided network where both merchants and consumers have PayPal accounts. 2211 North First Street, San Jose, California, 95131
The company’s primary source of revenue (90%+ of net revenues) is derived from charging fees for
Telephone
completing payment transactions, typically based on volume of activity. The other 10% of net revenue is
408 967 1000
derived from other fees and value-added services such as subscription fees, interest earned on PayPal
loans/credit, and interest earned on customer account balances. Fax
PayPal’s value proposition for consumers is to reduce transaction friction in payments and sending money N/A
between friends and family (peer-to-peer or P2P). Consumers can fund their PayPal account through their
Website
bank account, a credit or debit card, or from an existing PayPal balance or credit. PayPal does not currently
www.paypal.com
charge consumers to fund or draw from their accounts but does generate some revenue from fees for
foreign currency exchange.
Officers
PayPal’s value proposition for merchants includes a quick onboarding process with no setup or recurring
fees for standard service, allowing merchants to quickly and easily accept payments online or in-store Executive VP & CTO Executive VP & CFO
through multiple sources (PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, etc.). Merchants get an end-to-end payment A. Deskus J. S. Miller
solution that provides authorization and settlement with the potential for instant access to funds. Online President, CEO & Director Independent Chairman of
merchants also see a higher conversion rate as users who checkout with PayPal are less likely to abandon J. A. Chriss the Board
their cart. J. J. Donahoe
MARKET PROFILE. As of year-end 2023, PYPL enabled global commerce by providing payment solutions for Senior VP & General
approximately 426 million active customer accounts (peaked at 435 million in 2022) in over 200 markets. Counsel
PayPal estimates its total addressable market is approximately $110 trillion, which includes nearly all retail B. Patel
shopping (mobile, e-commerce, and offline), peer-to-peer and remittances, cross-border payments,
domestic non-cash payments, and digital consumer financial services. While we view the $110 trillion as Board Members
factually correct, we note that PYPL will not be able to address all markets at once and is currently focused A. M. Sarnoff F. D. Yeary
on peer-to-peer and consumer retail purchases. Given a large percentage of the world’s transactions
(although not volume) is still cash or check, we view this market opportunity as incredibly large. B. J. Johnson G. J. McGovern
CORPORATE STRATEGY. To grow, PYPL views its value proposition as more of a platform rather than just a D. M. Messemer J. A. Chriss
checkout button. PYPL estimates it already has a large share of the checkout market and believes this part D. M. Moffett J. Christodoro
of the market will become commoditized over time, which we agree and see PYPL’s lower returns on capital D. W. Dorman J. J. Donahoe
as indicative of this fact.
E. J. Lores R. C. Adkins
Therefore, PYPL is consistently looking to bring merchants and consumers onto its platform by reducing any
frictions as well as partnering with companies like Uber, Instagram Shopping, and Facebook Marketplaces.
PYPL’s aspiration is to become a service or app that is used multiple times a day by consumers, serving as a Domicile Auditor
platform for managing money. PYPL has stated it has no intention of becoming a bank, but will instead Delaware PricewaterhouseCoopers
continue to partner with banks. LLP
Founded
We see the merit of PYPL’s strategy but have some reservations given PYPL is only acting as a “middleman” 1998
in all transactions, relying on third parties such as networks, banks, and payment processors to an extent.
The biggest disadvantage to this is the transaction processing expenses PYPL incurs primarily to fund user Employees
accounts. This expense ballooned from approximately 32% of total expenses in 2012 to 51% in 2022 and 27,200
58% in 2023. The advantage to this strategy is that it keeps PYPL agnostic as to what funding sources users
want to connect to their account, but the disadvantage is PYPL uses the current incumbent “rails” such as Stockholders
the Visa and Mastercard networks, incurring sizable costs. 3,942
IMPACT OF MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS. On September 27, Alex Chriss replaced Dan Schulman as CEO. Chriss
served as Executive Vice President and General Manager of Intuit’s Small Business and Self-Employed
Group, which generated more than half of the firm’s revenue. It’s an exciting hire as Chriss was able to grow
revenue at a CAGR of 23% over the prior five years and also led INTU's $12 billion acquisition of Mailchimp.
The announcement marked an end to Dan Schulman’s eight years at PYPL’s helm.
In September 2018, PYPL spent $2.2 billion to buy iZettle. iZettle provided small businesses in Europe and
Latin America with solutions to process payments, and we note it came with a point of sale (POS) system
similar-looking to Square’s.
In November 2018, PYPL purchased Hyperwallet for $400 million to enhance its payout capabilities (i.e.,
distributing funds to payees).
On September 8, 2021, the company announced its intent to acquire Japanese buy now, pay later (BNPL)
firm Paidy for $2.7 billion in largely cash. This was the company’s largest acquisition ever.
FINANCIAL TRENDS. In 2023, total payment volume (TPV) was about $1.5 trillion, representing growth of
13% over 2022. During the same period, PYPL processed about 25.0 billion payment transactions, 12%
more than in 2022. This translated to 58.7 payment transactions per active account (TPA) in 2023, up from
51.4 in 2021. However, revenue rose just 8% as results were negatively impacted by a decline in revenues
from the core PayPal products and services. As of December 31, 2023, the company was well positioned
from a debt perspective (cash and short-term investments of $14.1 billion and debt of $11.3 billion). During
2023, the company repurchased $5.0 billion of common stock.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2024 CFRA. 2
Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Quantitative Evaluations Expanded Ratio Analysis

Fair Value Rank 1 2 3 4 5 2023 2022 2021 2020

Lowest Highest Price/Sales 2.28 3.00 8.82 12.96
Based on CFRA's proprietary quantitative model, Price/EBITDA 12.49 16.73 42.90 64.73
stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most Price/Pretax Income 12.56 24.50 54.56 54.89
undervalued (5). P/E Ratio 12.04 17.24 41.00 60.36
Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg. (M) 1,107.00 1,158.00 1,186.00 1,187.00
Fair Value USD Analysis of the stock’s current worth, based on CFRA’s
Calculation 94.03 proprietary quantitative model suggests that PYPL is Figures based on fiscal year-end price
undervalued by USD 32.39 or 52.55%

Volatility LOW AVERAGE HIGH

Key Growth Rates and Averages
Technical BEARISH Since February, 2024, the technical indicators for
Past Growth Rate (%) 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
Evaluation PYPL have been BEARISH"
Net Income 75.53 0.35 15.60
Insider Activity UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL FAVORABLE Sales 8.19 11.54 14.02

Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.)

Net Margin (%) 14.26 13.16 14.58
% LT Debt to Capitalization 29.41 29.22 27.97
Return on Equity (%) 20.55 17.34 17.99

Company Financials Fiscal year ending Dec 31

Per Share Data (USD) 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Tangible Book Value 8.85 7.29 7.65 8.39 8.44 7.05 9.57 8.65 7.62 4.03
Free Cash Flow 3.83 4.43 4.16 4.56 2.87 3.93 1.55 2.06 1.49 1.42
Earnings 3.84 2.09 3.52 3.54 2.07 1.71 1.47 1.15 1.00 0.34
Earnings (Normalized) 5.10 4.13 4.60 3.88 3.10 2.42 1.90 1.50 1.29 N/A
Dividends N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Payout Ratio (%) NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Prices: High 88.62 196.10 310.16 244.25 121.48 93.70 79.38 44.52 42.55 N/A
Prices: Low 50.25 66.38 179.15 82.07 81.91 70.22 39.02 30.52 30.00 N/A
P/E Ratio: High 17.40 47.50 67.40 63.00 39.20 38.70 41.80 29.70 33.00 NM
P/E Ratio: Low 9.90 16.10 38.90 21.20 26.40 29.00 20.50 20.30 23.30 NM

Income Statement Analysis (Million USD)

Revenue 29,771 27,518 25,371 21,454 17,772 15,451 13,094 10,842 9,248 8,025
Operating Income 4,855 4,039 4,315 3,428 2,797 2,219 2,197 1,586 1,509 1,268
Depreciation + Amortization 590.00 891.00 899.00 867.00 614.00 514.00 513.00 516.00 442.00 387.00
Interest Expense 347.00 304.00 232.00 209.00 115.00 77.00 7.00 3.00 N/A N/A
Pretax Income 5,411 3,366 4,099 5,065 2,998 2,376 2,200 1,631 1,488 1,261
Effective Tax Rate 21.50 28.10 -1.70 17.00 18.00 13.40 18.40 14.10 17.50 66.80
Net Income 4,246 2,419 4,169 4,202 2,459 2,057 1,795 1,401 1,228 419.00
Net Income (Normalized) 3,113 2,622 2,544 2,096 1,793 1,446 1,419 1,022 952.50 788.10

Balance Sheet and Other Financial Data (Million USD)

Cash 14,060 10,868 9,500 13,083 10,761 9,109 5,695 4,975 3,411 2,230
Current Assets 62,569 57,424 52,574 50,995 38,495 32,963 32,645 25,733 20,648 17,565
Total Assets 82,166 78,624 75,803 70,379 51,333 43,332 40,774 33,103 28,881 21,917
Current Liabilities 48,466 45,008 43,029 38,447 26,919 25,904 22,863 16,878 13,617 13,283
Long Term Debt 9,676 10,417 8,049 8,939 4,965 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Total Capital 32,895 31,829 31,537 29,788 22,401 17,384 16,994 14,712 13,759 9,341
Capital Expenditures 623.00 706.00 908.00 866.00 704.00 823.00 667.00 669.00 722.00 492.00
Cash from Operations 4,843 5,813 5,797 6,219 4,071 5,480 2,531 3,158 2,546 2,220
Current Ratio 1.29 1.28 1.22 1.33 1.43 1.27 1.43 1.52 1.52 1.32
% Long Term Debt of Capitalization 29.40 32.70 25.50 30.00 22.20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
% Net Income of Revenue 14.30 8.80 16.40 19.60 13.80 13.30 13.70 12.90 13.30 5.20
% Return on Assets 3.77 3.27 3.69 3.52 3.69 3.30 3.72 3.20 3.71 3.86
% Return on Equity 20.50 11.50 20.00 22.70 15.20 13.10 11.70 9.80 11.20 5.40

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Data may be preliminary or restated; before results of discontinued operations/special items. Per share data adjusted for stock dividends; EPS diluted.
E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.

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Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Sub-Industry Outlook Industry Performance

Our fundamental view of the Transaction and of global e-commerce spending, still leaving GICS Sector: Financials
Payment Processing Services sub-industry is ample room for growth (2024 GPR). As budgets Sub-Industry: Transaction and Payment Processing Services
positive. The lion’s share of companies are tighten, we see increased usage as it becomes Based on S&P 1500 Indexes
enablers with sound business models tied to a growing element of the payment mix. Once Five-Year market price performance through May 25, 2024
money transfers for goods and services. used for luxury items (beauty products), it’s
Businesses and consumers continue to demand now being more utilized for necessities
more – faster service, greater convenience, more (groceries, medical items), highlighting
choices, and enhanced security. Most companies consumers’ reliance on flexible payment
have a tilt toward tech-heavy operating models, options amid economic uncertainties.
ranging from higher-growth SaaS makeups to Higher for longer interest rates have
more transaction-based facilitators across key implications for financial technology firms,
venues that include disbursements, remittances, such as PYPL, SQ, and FI, which thrived in the
commercial point-of-sale (POS) payments, previous low-rate environment, prioritizing
accounts payable, and consumer bill pay. growth at all costs. While some fintechs have
Our positive stance is predicated around the ample reserves to weather the storm, we
earnings-driven stories from most names, expect the shakeout from higher rates will
especially when factoring in macroeconomic separate winners from struggling smaller
considerations that participants must maneuver fintechs less able to adapt. A “soft landing”
around, including cost-saving initiatives. Spending scenario suggesting easing price pressures
and demand remain robust among consumers and bolsters the case for potential Fed rate cuts in
businesses, driving growth. In our view, some of 2H 2024, supporting our positive view.
the favorable trends are card and non-card However, we believe fintechs must transition to
payment services, digital banking, IT steadier/sustainable growth rates to maintain
modernization, and data analytics, which are in a competitive edge.
high demand. Headwinds that could alter growth are: 1)
The swift expansion and global spread of mobile downturns in the macro economy or declines in
and e-commerce have created opportunities for consumer confidence; 2) a heightened
merchants to reach customers anywhere, on any regulatory environment as interchange fees,
device, and we remain optimistic about the pricing practices, and BNPL have received
potential opportunity in the e-commerce market significant legal and regulatory scrutiny
in 2024. The 2024 Global Payments Report (GPR) worldwide; and 3) company-specific execution
states global e-commerce transactions notched issues of previously laid out strategies. The
$6.1 trillion in 2023, with a 9% CAGR forecast S&P Transaction and Payment Processing NOTE: A sector chart appears when the sub-industry does not have
sufficient historical index data.
through 2027. All major regions – North America, Index has risen by 10.7% YTD through March
All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry
MEA, LATAM, Europe, and APAC – are poised for 22, 2024, outperforming the S&P Composite
Classification Standard (GICS).
growth, presenting attractive cross-border 1500’s 9.3% gain.
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and should
opportunities from our perspective. / Caydee Blankenship not be relied upon as such.
Consumers have more ways to pay than ever and Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence
many include tech offerings (i.e., value-added
services). We believe consumers’ appetite for
credit at checkout is expanding to include card-
funded digital wallets, buy now pay later (BNPL),
and other POS financing options. BNPL remains
increasingly popular with consumers (+18% in
transaction volumes in 2023), accounting for 5%

Sub-Industry: Transaction and Payment Processing Services Peer Group*: Transaction and Payment Processing Services
Recent 30-Day 1-Year Fair Return
Stock Stock Stk. Mkt. Price Price P/E Value Yield on Equity LTD to
Peer Group Symbol Exchange Currency Price Cap. (M) Chg. (%) Chg. (%) Ratio Calc. (%) (%) Cap (%)

PayPal Holdings, Inc. PYPL NasdaqGS USD 61.58 64,416.0 -4.4 -0.4 12.0 94.03 N/A 21.4 29.9
Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM NasdaqGS USD 29.68 9,175.0 -9.4 107.6 NM N/A N/A -26.4 70.5
Block, Inc. SQ NYSE USD 66.62 41,107.0 -11.4 7.7 30.0 58.16 N/A 1.9 15.1
Corpay, Inc. CPAY NYSE USD 269.95 18,969.0 -12.0 16.1 16.0 332.41 N/A 32.3 48.5
Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFT NasdaqGS USD 114.01 5,230.0 7.8 1.2 20.0 N/A N/A 22.7 37.8
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS NYSE USD 76.31 42,448.0 6.1 41.7 15.0 N/A 1.9 1.9 36.2
Fiserv, Inc. FI NYSE USD 150.20 87,882.0 -3.3 29.0 19.0 N/A N/A 10.9 42.7
Global Payments Inc. GPN NYSE USD 103.24 26,352.0 -18.6 4.3 10.0 153.58 1.0 5.9 37.7
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. JKHY NasdaqGS USD 168.33 12,271.0 1.1 15.2 32.0 156.67 1.3 22.8 12.0
Toast, Inc. TOST NYSE USD 25.38 14,090.0 9.4 18.8 NM N/A N/A -21.6 N/A
WEX Inc. WEX NYSE USD 188.57 7,901.0 -19.4 11.3 31.0 N/A N/A 15.3 51.6

*For Peer Groups with more than 10 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
NA-Not Available; NM-Not Meaningful.
Note: Peers are selected based on Global Industry Classification Standards and market capitalization. The peer group list includes companies with similar characteristics, but may not include all the companies within the same
industry and/or that engage in the same line of business.

Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without prior written permission. Copyright ©2024 CFRA. 4
Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Analyst Research Notes and other Company News

April 30, 2024 01:19 PM ET... CFRA Maintains Buy Opinion on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL
11:50 AM ET... CFRA Reiterates Hold Opinion on Shares of PayPal Holdings, Inc. 64.86****):
(PYPL 67.94***): Our 12-month target price of $80, down $4, values shares at 14.2x our 2024 EPS
Our target price of $71, up $12, values shares at 14.8x our 2025 EPS view, deeply view, deeply discounted to PYPL’s 10-year historical average of 34.1x given slower
discounted to PYPL’s historical average given market share concerns. Importantly, growth expectations. We raise our 2023 EPS view to $5.00 from $4.97 and lower
PYPL has changed its methodology to include stock-based compensation and 2024’s to $5.61 from $5.65. PYPL posted Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.16 versus $0.93 a
related employer payroll taxes (e.g., 2021-2023 adj. earnings are now 22% lower) in year ago, in line with consensus on revenue of $7.29 billion that beat expectations by
its results to enhance transparency. To reflect this change and Q1 results, we lower $14 million. Positives came from total payment volume, which surged 11% to $377
our 2024 EPS view to $4.26 from $5.20 and reduce 2025’s to $4.80 from $5.70. billion, the second straight quarter of accelerating growth. Specifically, branded
PYPL posted Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.08 versus $0.85 a year ago, on revenue of $7.70 checkout volume growth jumped to 8% in July from 6.5% in June and management
billion (a 2% beat). Total payment volume jumped 14% Y/Y with unbranded card highlighted expectations for further acceleration given greater e-commerce spend.
processing (+26%) leading the way. Encouragingly, PYPL’s branded checkout (i.e., However, weakness was seen in the transaction margin, which fell 280 bps to 45.9%.
higher margins) showed signs of life with 7% growth vs. 5% in the prior quarter. Still, we take solace in the fact that PYPL’s operating margin jumped 230 bps to
Additionally, active accounts rose 1 million Q/Q to 427 million, the first sequential 21.4%, and we expect an improved environment and strong execution to lead to
growth since late 2022. We remain at Hold as competition from players such as operating margins of 23%-24% in 2024. / Alexander Yokum, CFA
Apple Pay has reduced PYPL’s long-term growth profile. / Alexander Yokum, CFA
May 09, 2023
February 08, 2024 10:46 AM ET... CFRA Keeps Buy Rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL 66.96****):
11:21 AM ET... CFRA Keeps Hold Opinion on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL 56.41***): PYPL delivered Q1 beats, but is experiencing a bearish reaction to the print,
Our 12-month target price of $59, up $4, values shares at 10.3x our 2025 EPS view, grounded around reservations related to mix (not growth). Assumptions around
deeply discounted to PYPL’s 10-year historical average of 32.8x given slower growth total payment volume and revenue growth in the back half of 2023 strengthened
and increasing competition. We lower our 2024 EPS view to $5.20 from $5.58 and (similar to the first half, instead of stepping down to mid-single-digit levels), but
start 2025’s at $5.70. PYPL posted Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.48 versus $1.24, $0.12 was mated to unfavorable mix from an acceleration in unbranded (i.e., Braintree)
above consensus on revenue of $8.03 billion (a 2% beat). Leading the way was total volumes, which weighed on transaction take rate (down ~6 bps). As a result,
payment volume, which rose 15% Y/Y given an impressive 14% increase in expected operating margin expansion was trimmed to ~100 bps (vs. ~125 bps
transactions per active accounts. However, active accounts of 426 million (-2%) hit prior), but expense discipline should still drive EPS figures higher to ~$4.95 (vs. ~
their lowest level since 2021 as management highlighted churn in less developed $4.87 prior) in 2023. Net revenues were $7.04B (+9%), clearing consensus of $6.99B
markets. After EPS surged 24% in FY 2023 and management unveiled six new and adj-EPS of $1.17 (+33%) beat by $0.05. Our target of $84 (from $98), 16.9x our
innovations in January, we were disappointed with FY 2024’s guidance of flat 2023 EPS view, is deeply discounted to PYPL’s ten-year historical average of 32.8x,
earnings growth. It has become apparent that a turnaround will take time, and we resulting from slowing (albeit stabilizing) growth and margins. We also lift our 2023
note that branded checkout (comes with a higher margin) rose just 5% in Q4. Still, EPS view to $4.97 from $4.86 and keep 2024’s at $5.65. / David Holt
given cost cuts, PYPL’s operating margin improved 40 bps to 23.3%. / Alexander
Yokum, CFA February 10, 2023
10:16 AM ET... CFRA Keeps Buy Rating on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL 79.92****):
November 02, 2023 PYPL’s recovery has not been linear, but still intact, in our view. Targets for 2023
11:15 AM ET... CFRA Lowers Opinion on PayPal Holdings, Inc. to Hold from Buy (PYPL were raised for adj-operating margin expansion to 125 bps (from 100 bps) and adj-
54.93***): EPS growth of ~18% (from ~15%); although the company did not issue a full-year
Our 12-month target price of $55, down $25, values shares at 9.9x our 2024 EPS revenue outlook, PYPL provided figures needed to achieve targets (i.e., mid-single-
view, deeply discounted to PYPL’s 10-year historical average of 33.5x given slower digit growth), which we suspect contain a high degree of conservatism, given PYPL’s
growth expectations and margin headwinds. We raise our 2023 EPS view to $5.03 Q1 ’23 guide calls for top-line growth of ~9%. The conference call also elaborated on
from $5.00 and lower 2024’s to $5.58 from $5.61. PYPL posted Q3 adjusted EPS of other topics that suggest PYPL is holding or gaining share in core markets (i.e.,
$1.30 versus $1.08 a year ago, $0.07 above consensus on revenue of $7.42 billion branded checkout and digital wallet) and succession plans with CEO Dan Schulman
that beat expectations by $35 million. Our downgraded view reflects falling active retiring at year-end. Net revenues were $7.38B (+7% or +9% ex. FX), narrowly
accounts (-1% Y/Y versus double-digit growth before and during Covid) and weaker- missing consensus of $7.39B and adj-EPS of $1.24 that topped consensus of $1.20.
than-expected branded checkout volume (+6% after growing 8% in July). Still, Our target of $98 (from $95), 20.2x our 2023 EPS estimate, is deeply discounted to
strength was seen in payment volume (+15%) as payment transactions per active PYPL’s 5-year historical average of 36.5x. We lift our 2023 EPS estimate to $4.86
account hit a new high of 56.6 (+13% Y/Y). Adjusted operating margins (-20 bps to from $4.73 and set 2024’s EPS at $5.65. / David Holt
22.4%) showed weakness, given a 21% increase in transaction expenses. We
applaud PYPL’s goal of simplifying the business and note significant management
changes with a new CEO, CFO, and CTO. / Alexander Yokum, CFA

August 14, 2023

12:37 PM ET... CFRA Retains Buy Opinion on PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL 62.61****):
Today, PYPL announced that its six-month search for a new CEO has ended and Alex
Chriss will replace Dan Schulman on September 27. Chriss currently serves as
Executive Vice President and General Manager of Intuit’s (INTU 502 ****) Small
Business and Self-Employed Group, which generates more than half of the firm’s
revenue. It’s an exciting hire as Chriss was able to grow revenue at a CAGR of 23%
over the past five years and also led INTU's $12 billion acquisition of Mailchimp. The
announcement marks an end to Schulman’s eight years at PYPL’s helm in which he
managed to triple the firm’s revenue and more than triple the firm’s EPS. However,
PYPL has seen growth dramatically slow over the past two years and shares
currently sit nearly 80% off 2021 highs. Still, we are optimistic about PYPL’s future
and see this hire as a potential rejuvenation to a business which maintains more
than 400 million active accounts and $1.4 trillion in payments volume. We retain our
12-month target price of $80. / Alexander Yokum, CFA

August 03, 2023

Note: Research notes reflect CFRA's published opinions and analysis on the stock at the time the note was published. The note reflects the views of the equity analyst as of
the date and time indicated in the note, and may not reflect CFRA's current view on the company.
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Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Analysts Recommendations Wall Street Consensus Opinion

Buy/Hold

Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance

For fiscal year 2024, analysts estimate that PYPL will earn
USD 4.12. For fiscal year 2025, analysts estimate that
PYPL's earnings per share will grow by 10.31% to USD 4.55.

No. of
Recommendations % of Total 1 Mo.Prior 3 Mos.Prior
Buy 13 29 15 16
Buy/Hold 9 20 7 7
Hold 23 51 24 25
Weak hold 0 0 1 1
Sell 0 0 0 0
No Opinion 0 0 0 0
Total 45 100 47 49

Wall Street Consensus Estimates

Fiscal Year Avg Est. High Est. Low Est. # of Est. Est. P/E
2025 4.55 5.02 4.23 36 13.54
2024 4.12 4.37 3.70 36 14.93
2025 vs. 2024 p 10% p 15% p 14% N/A% q -9%

Q2'25 1.06 1.25 0.97 19 58.06

Q2'24 0.97 1.00 0.88 28 63.58
Q2'25 vs. Q2'24 p 10% p 25% p 10% q -32% q -9%
Forecasts are not reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. S&P Global Market Intelligence organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and
provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years, as well as how those earnings estimates have changed over time. Note that the information provided in relation to consensus
estimates is not intended to predict actual results and should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.
Note: For all tables, graphs and charts in this report that do not cite any reference or source, the source is S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
Glossary

STARS Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports

Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research Services, and its CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research has ranked a universe of U.S. CAPEX - Capital Expenditures
common stocks, ADRs (American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American CY - Calendar Year
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for future performance. DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
Similarly, we have ranked Asian and European equities since June 30, 2002. DDM - Dividend Discount Model
Under proprietary STARS (Stock Appreciation Ranking System), equity analysts EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
rank equities according to their individual forecast of an equity's future total EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization
return potential versus the expected total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., EPS - Earnings Per Share
a regional index (MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index, MSCI AC Europe Index or S&P 500® EV - Enterprise Value
Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was designed to help FCF - Free Cash Flow
investors looking to put their investment decisions in perspective. Data used to FFO - Funds From Operations
assist in determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the analyst's own FY - Fiscal Year
models as well as internal proprietary models resulting from dynamic data P/E - Price/Earnings
inputs. P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value
PEG Ratio - P/E-to-Growth Ratio
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Ranking PV - Present Value
(also known as S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings) - Growth and R&D - Research & Development
S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend Rankings stability of earnings and dividends ROCE - Return on Capital Employed
are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Global Market Intelligence's ROE Return on Equity
earnings and dividend rankings for common stocks, which are designed to ROI - Return on Investment
capsulize the nature of this record in a single symbol. It should be noted, ROIC - Return on Invested Capital
however, that the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments ROA - Return on Assets
and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such rankings. The final SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts
analysis of the scores of a large and representative sample of stocks. The range WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
of scores in the array of this sample has been aligned with the following ladder
of rankings: Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository
Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
A+ Highest B Below Average
Qualitative Risk Assessment
A High B- Lower
A Above C Lowest
Reflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's operational risk, or the
risk of a firm's ability to continue as an ongoing concern. The Qualitative Risk
B+ Average D In Reorganization
Assessment is a relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should be
NC Not Ranked reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as opposed to risk
and volatility measures associated with share prices. For an ETF this reflects on
EPS Estimates a capitalization-weighted basis, the average qualitative risk assessment
CFRA's earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst projections of future assigned to holdings of the fund.
EPS from continuing operations, and generally exclude various items that are
viewed as special, non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect STARS Ranking system and definition:
either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) EPS estimate, ««««« 5-STARS (Strong Buy):
which are independently compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a data Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark,
provider to CFRA. Among the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on
asset sale gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges; legal an absolute basis.
and insurance settlements; in process research and development expenses; ««««« 4-STARS (Buy):
gains or losses on the extinguishment of debt; the cumulative effect of Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark
accounting changes; and earnings related to operations that have been over the coming 12 months.
classified by the company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such
as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges, may vary, and ««««« 3-STARS (Hold):
depend on such factors as industry practice, analyst judgment, and the extent Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant
to which some types of data is disclosed by companies. benchmark over the coming 12 months.
««««« 2-STARS (Sell):
12-Month Target Price Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
The equity analyst's projection of the market price a given security will benchmark over the coming 12 months.
command 12 months hence, based on a combination of intrinsic, relative, and
««««« 1-STAR (Strong Sell):
private market valuation metrics.
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant
benchmark by a notable margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling
in price on an absolute basis.
Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and
in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are the MSCI AC Europe Index and the MSCI AC
Asia Pacific Index, respectively.

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Stock Report | May 25, 2024 | NasdaqGSSymbol: PYPL | PYPL is in the S&P 500
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