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    Demand Forecasting

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    swapnil.das2018

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Demand Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    swapnil.das2018
    7 views3 pages

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

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    Copyright:

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    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    7 views3 pages

    Demand Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    swapnil.das2018

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    Year Quarter Period Demand Moving Average Deseasonalized forecast

    1 2 1 8,000.00 18,962.80
    1 3 2 13,000.00 19,486.61
    1 4 3 23,000.00 19,750.00 20,010.42
    2 1 4 34,000.00 20,625.00 20,534.23
    2 2 5 10,000.00 21,250.00 21,058.04
    2 3 6 18,000.00 21,750.00 21,581.85
    2 4 7 23,000.00 22,500.00 22,105.65
    3 1 8 38,000.00 22,125.00 22,629.46
    3 2 9 12,000.00 22,625.00 23,153.27
    3 3 10 13,000.00 24,125.00 23,677.08
    3 4 11 32,000.00 24,200.89
    4 1 12 41,000.00 24,724.70
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17

    Length of seasonality is 4 periods 50,000.00


    Average of first 4, next 4 and then their average 45,000.00
    40,000.00
    SUMMARY OUTPUT 35,000.00
    30,000.00
    Regression Statistics 25,000.00
    Multiple R 0.9580652365787 20,000.00
    R Square 0.9178889975405 15,000.00
    Adjusted R Square 0.9042038304639 10,000.00
    Standard Error 414.50331244967 5,000.00
    -
    Observations 8 0 2 4 6 8 10

    ANOVA
    df SS MS F Significance F
    Regression 1 11523810 11523810 67.07181522916 0.00017860862471323
    Residual 6 1030878 171813
    Total 7 12554688

    Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


    Intercept 18438.988095238 440.8087 41.829909 1.24876165E-08 17360.3680438446
    X Variable 1 523.80952380952 63.95925 8.1897384 0.000178608625 367.306877773846

    Equation
    Dt = 18,438.99+523.8T
    Seasonality Factor Estimated Seasonality Factor Forecast Error Absolute Err
    0.42 0.47 8,944.39 944.39 944.39
    0.67 0.68 13,317.23 317.23 317.23
    1.15 1.17 23,426.36 426.36 426.36
    1.66 1.66 34,177.57 177.57 177.57
    0.47 0.47 9,932.67 -67.33 67.33
    0.83 0.68 14,749.13 -3,250.87 3,250.87
    1.04 1.17 25,879.27 2,879.27 2,879.27
    1.68 1.66 37,664.93 -335.07 335.07
    0.52 0.47 10,920.95 -1,079.05 1,079.05
    0.55 0.68 16,181.02 3,181.02 3,181.02
    1.32 1.17 28,332.18 -3,667.82 3,667.82
    1.66 1.66 41,152.28 152.28 152.28
    0.47 11,909.24 11,909.24 11,909.24
    0.68 17,612.92 17,612.92 17,612.92
    1.17 30,785.09 30,785.09 30,785.09
    1.66 44,639.64 44,639.64 44,639.64
    0.47 12,897.52 12,897.52 12,897.52

    6 8 10 12 14 16 18

    Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


    19517.6081466315 17360.3680438446 19517.60815
    680.312169845201 367.306877773846 680.3121698
    Mean Squared Error MSE MAD
    891863.260171644
    100637.261219165
    181780.62087912
    31532.1361750311
    4533.5395863786
    10568163.7338549
    8290193.71329964
    112272.775245442
    1164345.1299871
    10118912.3010026
    13452889.5248929
    23190.5685353395
    141829879.73119
    310214908.327503
    947722023.375673
    1992697485.76432
    166345980.190711

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